Colonial and WCC Conference Wagering Previews

The college conference action starts to build in earnest today with four more gearing up for action, to go along with those that have commenced. Our focus is on two that will have a championship game on ESPN this coming Monday night, the Colonial and West Coast conferences. Both leagues feature teams that have enjoyed NCAA tournament success and should have highly competitive events. In addition, we have some of the top wagering information on each conference, so let’s move ahead in these exciting days of March.

Colonial Athletic Association Preview

The CAA has enjoyed another exciting campaign and this year’s postseason tourney is sure to match. Five teams have a legitimate chance to be crowned champs with one more lurking on the outside. Old Dominion (23-8, 10-16-1 ATS) was the regular season champion, thanks in part to unblemished (15-0) home record. What is concern about the Monarchs is they don’t shoot the ball that well (44.8 percent), with many of their baskets coming on offensive rebounds as put-backs. This would seem to make them vulnerable. Northeastern (19-11, 15-13-1 ATS) doesn’t come in playing well, having lost three of last six (0-6 ATS) and not playing typically tough defense. George Mason (17-13, 11-15-1 ATS) has been in the finals the last three years and though talented, are very young, which could make them finalist or one and done.

Virginia Commonwealth (20-8, 13-12 -1 ATS) has won the CAA tourney two of the last three years and has center Larry Sanders, who can be domineering player. The Rams style of pressure defense is disruptive and they have pedigree for this event, plus the advantage of playing in their home town of Richmond. William & Mary (20-9, 15-9-1 ATS) has been in the conference chase all season, however this is new territory for them, though they have the league’s best road record at 10-6 and 10-5 ATS. If you want a good long shot, try Hofstra (18-13, 14-14-1 ATS), they’ve won nine of 10 and are 9-3-1 ATS in true road games.

Betting notes- Favorites of less than 10 points have been a highly profitable bet in the CAA tournament since 2002, sporting 40-19 ATS record…. Underdogs of 10 or more points are an unbelievable of late, showing mediocre 2-15 SU record but astonishing 15-2 ATS (88.2 percent) mark since 2003….Total players can cash with bankroll building 37-17 UNDER record in the last six years. … In the championship game, the favored team has won nine straight games while going 6-2-1 ATS (75 percent).

Prediction: Virginia Commonwealth vs. Hofstra final

West Coast Conference Preview

This is one of the most dependable tournaments in determining at least one of the teams to be in the finals. Gonzaga (25-5, 14-10-2 ATS) has been the class of the WCC for years and has been a finalist every year since 1998, being the champions nine times. They will again be heavily favored, playing in Las Vegas again, with the matter of whom their opponent might be.
St. Mary’s (24-5, 18-9-1 ATS) and Portland (20-9, 14-10-1 ATS) are presumed to be the only two candidates worthy and the Bulldogs have won and covered against them in four tries this season. The Gaels and Pilots are expected to square off a third time in the semis, with each having won on their home court.

St. Mary’s would appear to have the edge with 10-3 SU road record (9-3 ATS) and difference-maker like center Omar Samhan in the paint. The Gaels are not a lock, as Portland has a good club and knows the only way to make NCAA Tournament is winning the West Coast tourney. Should these teams meet as expected, there matchup on ESPN2 Sunday night might be better than the finals.

Betting Notes -Favorites of seven or more are 27-0 SU and 19-8 ATS in the WCC tournamentsince 1998….Favorites own the edge in every round of the West Coast Conference Tournament over the last 12 seasons, highlighted by a 10-3 ATS (76.9 percent) record in Round One….Neutral floor chalk of seven points or more are 27-0 SU & 19-8 ATS (70.4 percent) in the WCC tournament since 1998….Oddsmakers have hinted which games in the WCC tournament have been high scoring, as on those with totals of 146 or higher since 2001, are 10-1 OVER the number.

Prediction: Gonzaga and Portland final

Steve Makinen of The Platinum Sheet contributed to this article.

NCAA Tourney Changing, Somewhat for the Better (Bettor)

It was an eventful first four days of the men’s basketball tourney and it is readily apparent things are in the process of change. When a team like Arizona, who has been to the tournament as often as a sunny day in Tucson, is the Cinderella story, well you can see the landscape is changing. The charm of big time upsets and unnatural storylines is giving way to the “chalk” ruling tournaments.

The NCAA Tournament is the only of its kind where the beginning of the post-season is more anticipated than the end. Do millions of people fill out Wild Card weekend brackets in the NFL or wait for the Super Bowl. The start of the NBA playoffs is met with the excitement of “Samantha Who” returning to airwaves. (If you don’t what that show is, the line is on the left) The Baseball and Hockey playoffs, be serious, unless you are big fan of either sport.

What we are left with isn’t so bad, as the matchups could hardly be more intriguing and whoever ends up being national champion, will not have any easy games left on the docket. It just points to the selection committee doing there jobs with excellence.

The Big East had five of their seven picked teams make the Sweet 16, setting up the possibility of East Regional final between top seeded Pittsburgh and Villanova. The Panthers were the shakiest team to advance, playing two rather emotionless affairs, while coming away victorious. Regular and post-season champion Louisville was pushed by Siena, which might be a good thing for the Cardinals. Overall the Big East stands at 11-2 and 6-7 ATS.

The Big 12 validated themselves as a strong conference that was probably a little underrated with 8-3 showing and having three teams advance. The Big 12 was tremendous 11-1 against the spread.

The ACC was trying to convince others in January that its conference was every bit as good as the Big East. Not many were buying, feeling the elite teams where as good as any other league, just not the whole contingent. This was proven with North Carolina and Duke making this round. The ACC didn’t show well with .500 record and paltry 3-6-1 ATS record.

There are those that felt the Big Ten was surprise this season, being better than anticipated, however the tournament has shown the league to be slighting above average with Michigan State and Purdue advancing. Collectively, the Big Ten is 6-5 and 4-7 ATS.

This was supposed to be mildly down year for the Pac-10, but after the first round, opinions were about to change with first round record of 5-1 and 4-2 ATS mark. Then the reality of stiffer competition set in and only the presumed last team invited, Arizona, had what it took to move on and the Pac-10 is 6-5 and 5-6 ATS at present.

The SEC was ridiculed all season and was quietly dispatched with 1-3 SU and ATS record and doesn’t have a team in the Sweet 16 for the first time in two decades.

Other Betting Notes:

In the first round, the higher seed was 21-11 with an undesirable 10-21-1 ATS record. When you include the play-in game, favorites were 22-11 and 11-21-1 ATS.

The second round brought quick and abrupt change for higher seeds and favorites, with 15-1 and 12-4 against the spread record.

In the opening round, the Over did slightly better with 18-15 mark, which was followed up by dominating 12-4 Over record on the weekend.

All top three seeds advanced to next round with 18-0 record and were 10-7-1 ATS.

The at-large teams, who in many cases were going to be in the tournament, just didn’t have the automatic bid, were 18-6 and 14-10 ATS when not matched against a team with the same credentials.

All teams that won the regular season title and not playing a team that did the same were 7-8 and 8-7 ATS.

After being a strong play in the second round, No.10 seeds were 0-3 SU and ATS.

Observations:

The Michigan State and USC contest was like watching an Elite Eight contest, based on the skill of the players and intensity.

Duke might be done, since their days of being a dominant team in this event are over, unless they find a big man, like the Christian Laettner and Cherokee Parks days. I’ve heard the reason Coach K can’t land a top big man is all of the coaches were guards and today’s players want to make move to get to NBA and want coaches who can develop their skills.

I wonder what St. Mary’s was thinking watching Arizona advance.

Watching Pac-10 player of the year James Hardin, brought to mind, Where’s Waldo?

Not sure what CBS needs to do, but their analyst line-up is no longer compelling. Everyone likes different aspects and Bill Raftery and Bob Wenzel make strong observations and will speculate along with having charm. Mike Giminski, Jim Spanarkle, Len Elmore and Dan Bonner are all competent, you just never learn anything.

Jay Bilas is the best of all the newer analysts over the last couple of years; however his unbelievably frequent use of the term “ball screen” is past the point of being over done.

While many people didn’t like Billy Packer for any number of his faults, he had a keen eye of observation and was able to pick out nuisances of what was happening on the floor. Clark Kellogg has been garden variety for a lead announcer and resembles one of his often quirky phrases. “Like a screen-saver, lots of activity, just not much gets done.”