Wagers to consider for NFL Draft

The New Orleans Saints have been Super Bowl champions for two and half months and the time has come for their 31 competitors to replenish the resources with new faces, hopefully with some that can make a difference right out of college. That’s right, the NFL Draft has arrived and now ESPN and The NFL Network can send their armies of football gurus (66 at last count) into your living rooms for three days instead of two.

If you managed to keep a portion of your football winnings thru the basketball season, the NFL Draft is a fun and unique way to watch the festivities, since you are going to put in the time to watch, why not have a little something riding on it. (Not that were advocating gambling on sports –wink)

We checked out the latest at Sportsbook.com for a number of their props and here are the absolutely “Guaranteed” projected winners from wwwwweneverloseinfootballdotcon.

Number of Quarterbacks taken in Round One

Over Two -650
Under Two +425

Only one way to bet this prop and that is the Over if at all. The St. Louis Rams made their intentions clear by releasing Marc Bulger and that Sam Bradford was their man. Jimmy Clausen in either headed to Oakland, Buffalo or San Francisco, with worst case scenario being Minnesota. That leaves Tim Tebow or Colt McCoy. Neither is projected to go this high, unless somebody sees Tebow as multi-faceted performer, which is reach for the first round. A lot of extra juice for hard to win wager.

Number of Running Backs taken in Round One

Over 1.5 -380
Under 1.5 +290

C.J. Spiller is a lock in this round with his explosive speed and able to catch the ball on wheel-routes and screens. The Houston Texans were disappointed in Steve Slaton last season and San Diego needs a dependable “every down” back and Ryan Mathews will fit one of their needs. Play the Over as easy winner.

Number of Wide Receivers and Tight Ends taken in Round One

Over 2.5 -140
Under 2.5 +100

Dez Bryant may have a few personality quirks but talent is what matters in the NFL and he should be first wide receiver taken. Demaryius Thomas is thought to have too much ability and Baltimore wouldn’t mind putting together a young pitch and catch combo with Joe Flacco. Unless there is an unknown issue concerning tight end Germaine Gresham from Oklahoma, Cincinnati or some other NFL team will take him as “best available player”. Bet the Over.

Number of Offensive Linemen taken in Round One

Over 6.5 -300
Under 6.5 +220

Within the first 20 selections, Trent Williams, Bryan Bulaga, Russell Okung, Bruce Campbell and Anthony Davis are presumed to be taken. Guard Mike Iupati of Idaho will fill a need in Green Bay, New York (Giants) or Pittsburgh, bringing the total to six. The means Charles Brown or Rodger Saffold, would have to be chosen and with the changes Dallas made to its roster, it is a sage bet they will take the seventh offensive linemen in the 2010 Draft. Remember, a lot of teams in the latter part of the first round will consider what happened earlier, take the Over.

Number of Defensive Tackles taken in Round One

Over 4.5 +160
Under 4.5 -200

It’s safe to assume Ndamukong Suh and Gerald McCoy will go two and three in the draft barring a trade and Dan Williams and Jared Odrick will be first-rounders. That leaves Terrance (Mount) Cody as the wild card. Blogger-speak has San Diego thinking about Cody, seeking a replacement for Jamal Williams. If the Chargers are serious about the boom-or-bust Alabama product, they would be wiser to package their second pick (40th overall) to either Detroit or Tampa Bay who are presumed to have taken defensive tackles already and move down just a few slots and maybe get another pick from San Diego to help them. The Under looks like the right choice.

Number of Defensive Ends taken in Round One

Over Four -250
Under Four +190

Similar to the quarterback wager, we are working with even number, making this one-way wager. Derrick Morgan and Jason Pierre-Paul are foregone conclusions and if both are gone, Atlanta will take Everson Griffen from Michigan with their first choice. Beyond this trio, everyone else at this position is considered a reach, thus good value on the Under.

Jimmy Clausen - What Will his Draft Pick Position Be

Over 9.5 -115
Under 9.5 -115

Tough call on the former Domer, with Buffalo probably the best fit for Under play, however he could get killed like he did as a freshman in South Bend with the Bills O-Line. A small play on the Over, but it would be just like Oakland at No. 8 to pick the California raised QB.

Eric Berry - What Will his Draft Pick Position Be

Over 6.5 +140
Under 6.5 -180

Another challenging wager. Kansas City and Seattle will have to decide between Berry and an offensive lineman at five or six. The worst the Tennessee safety falls to is Cleveland at No. 7. Supporting the Under, with comparisons to Ed Reed fair and just too talented to pass up.

Russell Okung - What Will his Draft Pick Position Be

Over 4.5 +240
Under 4.5 -320

It’s either Okung or Trent Williams to help shore up offensive tackle position for Washington at No. 4 and will bet it is the former Okie State Cowboys that is taken. Bet Under.

Dez Bryant - What Will his Draft Pick Position Be

Over 11.5 -145
Under 11.5 +115

Could be wrong, but with Denver trading Brandon Marshall, they are planning on taking the much scrutinized Bryant or Demaryius Thomas with their 11th pick. If Eric Berry would fall to Cleveland, the Browns nab him; otherwise they will take Bryant, which the Broncos would prefer all things considered. Under is the winning side.

Which Player Will Get Drafted 1st

Ndamukong Suh -500
Gerald McCoy +350

McCoy got a few reporters excited listening to assistant coaches back in February, but once the dust settled Suh was the clear choice for Detroit.

Earl Thomas +120
Joe Haden -150

Going with the upset in this selection. Though Haden is cornerback, Thomas according to scouts is immediately prepared to make an impact at safety, possibly in Jacksonville.

Golden Tate +290
Demaryius Thomas -380

In terms of actual ability, Tate is more polished product with better hands and cleaner route runner. The difference is height, Thomas is 6’3 ½ and Tate is at 5’10 ½. Thomas earns the odd for that reason.

Eric Norwood +135
Jerry Hughes -170

This is almost stealing, Hughes is projected first round pick and Norwood is late second round at best.

Anthony Davis+170
Bryan Bulaga -220

This comes down to team opinions and needs. Davis is probably the better athlete and pass-blocker, however Bulaga is steadier, a better drive-blocker and graded out well in desire. Bulaga rings the bell as winner.

Brian Price - Will he be Selected in the 1st Round

Yes -130
No –Even

Going against the grain and voting No, here’s why. Though Price is elite interior pass rusher, he’s merely average against the run; this is where his instincts show up as ordinary. He has a good motor and doesn’t given up on plays when beaten and could eventually become a top line defensive tackle, with continued improvement. A chancy first rounder, but a solid pick in second round.

Week 16 NFL Previews

On the next to last weekend of the NFL regular season, several teams are looking to wrap-up division titles; enhance postseason positions or inch closer to making the playoffs. The Cincinnati Bengals can win first AFC Central crown in three years with triumph over collapsing Kansas City. New England returns to the top of the AFC East with a win, but against a much tougher opponent in Jacksonville, who has faint playoff hopes. Baltimore sends Pittsburgh packing with a win and enhances wild card possibilities. Philadelphia still could leap into No. 2 seed by winning and Minnesota turmoil continuing. Denver’s in a tough spot at Philly and can’t afford to mess up with a thousand 7-7 AFC teams chasing them. The Giants have win last two games and hope division partners can dump Dallas.

Kansas City at Cincinnati 1:00E CBS

For the Bengals, it’s time for closure. They played their best game since mid-October in final second’s loss to San Diego last Sunday after losing teammate Chris Henry. On Tuesday, the team attended Henry’s funeral and what is sure to be emotional scene at Paul Brown Stadium; Cincinnati (9-5, 7-7 ATS) can make it a celebration of his life by being division champions. Besides the fact that Cincinnati is 0-6 ATS this season as a favorite, there is little to suggest that coach Marvin Lewis’ team won’t get the job done here. They own a 4-2 ATS edge vs. the Chiefs, home teams have won and covered four of the last five, and Kansas City hasn’t beaten a team with a winning record on the road since 2006. This series also shows a significant Under trend, 5-1 in the previous six.

Keys to the Game-

Kansas City (3-11, 5-9 ATS) pulled off the rare feat of failing to win or cover three straight home games and ends the season on the road. The Chiefs best offensive weapon is Jamal Charles, don’t give up on him because of his big play capabilities. Quarterback Matt Cassel’s completion percentage (54.6) would be three to four percent higher if his receivers didn’t lead the NFL in drops. Tapes show 75-80 percent of drops have been on receivers on throws touched and not turned into completions. Catch the ball! In Cincinnati games this season, the underdog is 13-1 ATS and the defensive front seven better do a better job than the 286 yards they allowed to Jerome Harrison or this gets ugly.

With the Bengals wanting to run the ball, the Chiefs 31st ranked run defense is the perfect compliment to Cedric Benson and Larry Johnson toting the pigskin. Do you think coach Lewis will want to give the fired up Johnson a few extra carries vs. his old team, me too. Cincy is 4-1 SU and ATS off a loss this season and will expect its defensive line to collapse K.C. running game and make Cassel throw before he wants against solid corners Leon Hall and Johnathan Joseph.

3DW Line – Cincinnati by 11.5
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Cincinnati -13.5, 39.5

Carolina at N.Y. Giants 1:00E FOX

Props to former coach and CBS commentator Bill Cowher, who correctly predicted the Giants would be sharp and ready to play at Washington, which they were in ripping the Redskins 45-12. Toss out the Turkey Day tumble in Denver and Eli Manning has led an offense that has averaged 37 points per contest in four of last five games. New York (8-6, 7-7 ATS) is 9-1 ATS after scoring 30 points or more in two straight games. Carolina is just 6-8 (7-7 ATS) after winning 12 games a season ago and will likely be looking for another quarterback next season. The Panthers impressive 26-7 mauling of Minnesota has them at 40-20 ATS all-time in December. They are also 21-10 ATS as a road dog of seven points or less under coach John Fox. Favorites have won and covered four of the last five series meetings, and four of those also went OVER the total.

Keys to the Game-

Coach Fox’s backside is clearly on the hot seat and he will lean on familiar formula in attempt to upset New York. His two-headed monster of DeAngelo Williams and James Stewart need to have a minimum of 30 carries, setting up QB Matt Moore to take deep shots downfield to Steve Smith. Carolina has to bring a few defense wrinkles like they had for the Vikings last week and give Manning at least time for pause. The Panthers are +8 in turnover margin the last three weeks and are 7-0 ATS after three consecutive games with a turnover margin of +2 or better. Keep Julius Peppers motor on high and let his single-handily disrupt Giants offense.

Though Manning has been shaper than a Ginzu knife, the Carolina secondary has been like pickpocket with eight interceptions in the last month. When Eli is feeling it, he’s fearless in trying to thread the needle; he’ll have to be slightly more cautious vs. this secondary. Coach Tom Coughlin doesn’t have to watch tape on Carolina to know their game plan; he just has to have his defense execute to thwart them. The G-Men are 13-4 ATS off a road win the last three years and have to add help if T Dave Diehl struggles with Peppers.

3DW Line – Giants by 6
Bookmaker.com Line – Giants -8, 42.5

Jacksonville at New England 1:00E CBS

New England looks to wrap up the AFC East while putting to rest any playoff hopes the Jaguars might still boast. It certainly hasn’t been the season as expected for the Patriots (6-7-1 ATS), but they are still 9-5 and figure to be a team that few will want to match up with in the playoffs. They are 7-0 SU and 4-3 ATS at Gillette Stadium, so a win and division title here would ensure a first round home playoff game. Under Bill Belichick, New England boasts a 14-3 SU and 13-4 ATS record in the last two weeks of the regular season. For the 7-7 Jaguars (5-9 ATS), this is a critical contest in which they are trying to improve on a 1-5 ATS skid in December/January road games. Jacksonville has never won in New England, going 0-5 and 2-3 ATS while being outscored by a 27-13 margin.

Keys to the Game-

Jacksonville has lost consecutive home games, to lose control of postseason destiny. Though the playoff picture is far from rosy, a win and Denver and Baltimore losses (certainly a possibility) brings them right smack in the middle of the AFC picture with winnable game at Cleveland to follow. The Jaguars don’t have any burners to test beatable Patriots secondary, that means get the ball in the hands of Maurice-Jones Drew every way imaginable. That forces New England to be preoccupied with stopping him and opens the field for others. Everyone knows Tom Brady will pass, however the Pats have made attempt to be much more balanced running the ball. Since surrendering 305 yards on the ground to Tennessee, the Jags have conceded 78.5 YPG via the run. It is imperative Jacksonville defenders tackle well or they will be hurt by Patriots receivers after the catch and fall to 1-11 ATS off a division battle.

Defenses have taken to bracketing Wes Welker and Randy Moss and forcing Tom Brady to look elsewhere to throw the ball. He’s been somewhat reluctant to do so and thrown un-Brady like passes for interceptions the last month, especially in the red zone. On the presumption the other pass receivers can get open, a half dozen early completions forces defenses to adjust and makes New England more explosive. The Pats found a pass rush last week with six sacks and Jacksonville is 5-16 SU when David Garrard is taken down three or more times the last three seasons. With the Pats 34-16 ATS as a 3.5 to 10-point favorite, all eyes of MJD and make Garrard a pocket passer.

3DW Line – New England by 12.5
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – New England -10, 44

Baltimore at Pittsburgh 1:00E CBS

After meeting in the AFC title game a year ago at Heinz Field, the most the Ravens and Steelers are hoping for now is a chance at the wildcard spot. A loss would be catastrophic to both. Pittsburgh (4-10 ATS) is 7-7 after ending its five-game losing skid by beating Green Bay on the game’s final play, but finishes its schedule vs. two playoff hopefuls. Baltimore is 8-6 SU and ATS, but plays its last two games on the road, where it is just 2-4 (3-3 ATS) in ’09. This will be the second meeting of the season between these AFC North foes, with the Ravens having won the first, 20-17 in overtime, in a game where the Steelers were without QB Ben Roethlisberger. Pittsburgh is just 1-4 SU & ATS in division games this year. Eight of the last nine physical battles these teams have played in Pittsburgh surprisingly went OVER the total. The visiting team is 15-5-1 ATS in this series.

Keys to the Game –

Second year starter Joe Flacco has rebounded from mid-season slump and has been far more accurate the last five weeks, except for Monday night date in Wisconsin. With Steelers secondary cheapjack, Flacco will have chances to light up Pittsburgh down the field like many have with no Troy Polamalu. Offensive tackles Jared Gaither and Michael Oher have to play great and control free-lancing linebackers from limiting Flacco’s time in the pocket. Baltimore is not as prolific defensively as in the past, but they still can play very well within the parameters of certain scores as 15-4 ATS record proves when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last two seasons.

The importance of Polamalu is shown in deep balls. During Super Bowl season, only two passes were completed for 40 or more yards, in 2009, nine such plays have been made. The safeties have to be in better position as the ball heads towards receiver’s hands. How about the offensive line lending a hand and giving Robert Mendenhall someplace to run and not have Big Ben have to throw so many times and take all those hits. The Steelers are 12-2 ATS in home games after gaining 300 or more passing yards in last game, but just 3-10 ATS as favorites.

3DW Line – Baltimore by 1.5
Bookmaker.com Line – Pittsburgh -3, 43

Denver at Philadelphia 4:15E CBS

After taking care of San Francisco, the Eagles (9-5 ATS) continue to roll and hope to wrap the NFC East title with a win here vs. Denver. Anything but however, could set up a winner take all matchup with the Cowboys next week in Arlington. Philly has won five straight games to move to 10-4 on the season, producing 32.5 points per game during that stretch. The Eagles’ Week 17 win over the Cowboys snapped a five-game ATS losing streak in home finales. After the shocking loss to Oakland, this game is even more important to Denver (8-6 SU & ATS), who can keep control of its wildcard destiny with a win. The Broncos are on a 1-4 SU and ATS skid when visiting NFC foes, including a 23-17 loss in Washington in Week 10. The home team is on a four-game SU and ATS winning streak in this AFC/NFC series.

Keys to the Game-

Denver is 22nd against the run and has become increasingly susceptible to cut-back runs. With Brian Westbrook reportedly ready to return, the Broncos have to protect the backside more diligently. The Denver defense coaches have to create schemes to free up Elvis Dumervil to chase Donovan McNabb. In the Broncos eight wins, Dumervil had 13 sacks, in the five losses, just two. Without disruption, Denver falls to 2-11 ATS vs. passing teams with a completion percentage of 61 percent or better. To upset the Eagles, the Denver offense has to do better than 35.7 percent on third down (23rd) and not settling for field goal attempts.

The Eagles commitment to the run has lead to five-game win streak. They have average 115.2 yards a contest on over 28 carries. Prior to OC Marty Mornhinweg change in philosophy, Philadelphia had six less carries a game. This has opened the field even further for big play specialists like DeSean Jackson. Though Denver is second against the pass and has Champ Bailey, watch for Philly to have Jackson line-up in the slot several times and put him in motion to keep Bailey and Denver secondary off guard. McNabb scorched the 49ers last week for 306 yards passing and the Eagles are a high-flying 13-3 ATS after accumulating 250 yards thru the air. Like most quarterbacks, Kyle Orton doesn’t like defenders in his face when throwing, expect Philadelphia to work the A-gaps hard with line stunts and blitzes.

3DW Line – Philadelphia by 15
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Philadelphia -7, 41.5

Steve Makinen of StatFox contributed to this article.

New York might need bailout in Washington

With their season on the line, the New York Giants came up short at home again versus Philadelphia last week, losing a high scoring affair 45-38. Although not mathematically dead in the playoff race, their hopes are on life support, with two of their final three games on the road. This perilous position means the Giants have to sweep Washington for the third time in the last four years to keep dreams alive of a fifth straight postseason bid.

A week after beating the Cowboys, New York (6-7 ATS) lost a fourth straight game to the Eagles at the Meadowlands and fell to third place in the division with a record of 7-6. Philadelphia sits at 10-4 and Dallas is 9-5. Washington (6-7 ATS) brings up the rear in the NFC East at 4-9 and comes into this Monday night game off a victory at Oakland. The G-Men will come to Washington 17-5 ATS after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored.

Unlike recent seasons (18-6 SU & ATS the last three years as visitors including postseason), New York has floundered of late away from home, losing its last three games both SU and ATS, by at least 20 points each time. They’ll look to break that skid with a fourth straight win in Washington against a Redskins team set on spoiling any remaining hopes for its division rival. The Giants are 15-4 ATS in road games against NFC opposition.

Washington D.C. is known for stirring debates and rumors flying (among many other things) and the latest involves Mike Shanahan being the next coach of the Redskins. Present head coach Jim Zorn swallowed his pride earlier and gave up control of calling plays, yet apparently never lost his team despite all the distractions.

Washington has continued to play hard and only one of their nine losses has been by more than 10 points, proving their competitiveness. After losing three consecutive games by seven total points, they routed the Raiders 34-13 as 2.5-point road favorites and have covered the spread five straight times.

Among those that have shown improvement is quarterback Jason Campbell. The former Auburn signal caller has gone thru almost as many offensive coordinators as Tiger Woods “indiscretions”, but has been more consistent with 2,946 yards passing, 17 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. He’ll set career highs in all three categories, but it’s up for debate whether or not he’s still the quarterback of the future, turning 28 years old on New Year’s Eve.

Run defense was Washington’s focus during the offseason—it signed Pro Bowl tackle Albert Haynesworth to a $100 million contract—yet still allows 117.5 yards per game. That is no fault of Haynesworth, who has battled nagging injuries the last two months and he and his teammates have given up only 122 yards on the ground the last two games. That isn’t necessarily a good omen, as the Skins are 0-7 ATS after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in two straight games since 2007. For the Washington optimist, whose party controls the House or Senate, the Redskins are 9-1 ATS versus offensive teams like the Giants (382.4 YPG) averaging 375 or more yards per game in the second half of the season.

DiamondSportsbook.com has New York as three-point favorites with total of 43.5. These teams renewed their rivalry in Week 1 and the Giants held on for a 23-17 victory at home after building a 17-point lead late in the first half. Mario Manningham caught a 30-yard touchdown pass from Eli Manning, Osi Umenyiora returned a Jason Campbell fumble 37 yards for a touchdown and kicker Lawrence Tynes booted three field goals to account for New York’s scoring. Manning’s squad has won and covered three in a row at FedEx Field, however is 0-5 ATS in last five favorite roles and 4-10-1 ATS on Monday’s.

Despite their spread streak, Washington is 3-9 ATS at home, nonetheless has covered last four times dressed up as hogs, whoops, underdogs. Six of the last eight games at Washington have gone OVER when these teams meet.

New York covers if the offensive line plays up to previous standards and controls the action. Like most quarterbacks, Manning is not nearly as effective when he’s getting knocked around. The front five has to give him time and the Giants offensive coaches need to be more patient in the run game. They feeling from New York observers is if the offense doesn’t pick up a couple of first downs running in a particular drive, Tom Coughlin’s staff is quick to pull the trigger and start passing almost exclusively. Given time, Manning should pick apart the Redskins middle defense since the safeties couldn’t cover the Giants’ receivers with a bolt of Christmas wrapping paper.

Washington covers if the secondary can rough up the G-Men’s youthful wide receivers. At times, alligator arms have been seen by various New York pass catchers over the middle, and Redskins’ safeties love to deliver big shots. Washington’s pass rush has hit another gear and with the Giants’ tackles faulty in pass protection and not picking up stunts properly, they could create chaos in the pocket. Tight end Fred Davis has become Campbell’s go-to-guy if Santana Moss is covered. Davis is big and can get down the field to cause Giant(s) headaches (that’s terrible) for the team in blue.

Monday Night System – Play On home team whose opponent surrendered 35 or more points in previous game. (18-5 ATS, 78.2 percent)

Steve Makinen of The Platinum Sheet and College and Pro Football Weekly contributed to this article.

Happy Thanksgiving to All

It’s a splendid day to slow down, take a break and enjoy life. Let the big box store’s try and fool us thinking they have safety concerns about the day after Thanksgiving, giving them a reason to be open today. At least most of us understand what today is, a day for thanks for all the good things that come to us. In addition, besides great food and family, we receive a healthy portion of football, to which a few dollars could be set aside to hopefully also make it a profitable day in other ways. Here’s a look at the day time action. Lines from Bookmaker.com.

Green Bay at Detroit (+11.5, 47.5)

Dating back to 1934, the Lions have been a proud part of the American celebration of Thanksgiving Day. They’ve played 69 games on the national holiday and take a 33-34-2 record into this year’s contest against Green Bay. Detroit (2-8, 2-7-1 ATS) has dropped five straight up and against the spread on the fourth Thursday of November while being outscored by a lopsided 168-60 margin, and comes into this game winners of just three of its last 32 games (10-21-1 ATS) dating back to the halfway mark of 2007.

Since Green Bay won 37-26 as a field goal favorite two years ago, coach Mike McCarthy’s team has beaten the Lions four straight times (1-3 ATS), with an average score of 34.8-14.8. In fact, Detroit hasn’t won outright in this series since 2005, a span of eight games (2-6 ATS). The game is very important for Green Bay, 6-4 after beating San Francisco this past Sunday and currently is the top NFC wild card team.

Green Bay’s defense is ranked third overall in yards allowed, but it has been feast of famine in points conceded. In the Packers six victories, they have only surrendered more than 17 points once (5-0-1 ATS) and in the four losses, they have allowed 30 or more points (0-4 ATS). They shutout Detroit 26-0 in earlier meeting and are 9-4 ATS as road favorites, however, a great deal of shifting has to occur with Al Harris and Aaron Kampman done for the year with knee injuries.

The Packers will face a similar Detroit offense in the rematch. The Lions are expected to be without rookie quarterback Matthew Stafford and third-year wide receiver Calvin Johnson because of injuries. Daunte Culpepper will again get the start in place of Stafford and had a miserable day the last time (6-for-14, 48 yards, one interception) before leaving in the third quarter with a hamstring injury. It’s unfortunate for coach Jim Schwartz , since Stafford had a career day last week, setting a league mark for most touchdown passes (five) in a game by a rookie. His last one, with no time left, beat Cleveland 38-37. The Lions are 6-16 ATS off one or more straight Overs and 1-8 ATS in weeks 10 through 13 over the last three seasons.

Detroit hasn’t won back to back games since games 6-thur-8 in 2007; however Green Bay on this day will often bring out the best in them, just like in 2003, when they won 22-14 as a touchdown underdog. The Lions are 8-0 ATS at home in November against teams off consecutive wins.

3DWLine – Green Bay by 13.5 (color for the day)

Oakland at Dallas (-13.5, 40)

Of late, Thanksgiving Day has been more like Groundhog Day, with Detroit losing early game and Dallas winning big in the late afternoon tilt. In fact, the last Turkey Day wins by the Cowboys have been by 25, 31 and 28 points. They are expected to win big again in ’09, with the Oakland coming to town for the inaugural holiday affair at brand new Cowboys’ Stadium.

Dallas comes in with a 7-3 (5-5 ATS) mark after surviving Washington, but is now just 3-6 ATS as double-digit chalk under Wade Phillips. However, they will be looking to extend a run of 29-14 ATS at home in the month of November.

The Cowboys will like the person who hid the big turkey leg in the back of refrigerator for later consumption, sifting thru the maze of food to find it. After averaging 30.2 points per game starting Oct. 11, Dallas has two touchdowns in the last two games in totaling a mere 14 points, which all came in the fourth quarter. The Boys will be searching for offense and are 29-14 ATS in home games after scoring 14 points or less last outing.

This will be Oakland’s first appearance playing on Thanksgiving since the AFL and NFL merged in 1970. The Raiders (3-7, 5-5 ATS), much like recent times, lost 28-14 to Detroit in that game, with one difference, they were an elite team back in yesteryear.

This is Oakland’s first visit to Big D in 11 years and is coming off rare victory last week in upset of Cincinnati 20-17. Coach Tom Cable had seen enough of JaMarcus Russell and his poor work habits and has turned the team over journeymen Bruce Gradkowski. The former Toledo star has about one-fifth the ability of Russell, but proved last week he’s a fighter and played inspired football. Among the issues in this contest is the Raiders run defense, which is 30th overall and they are 17-33 ATS versus good rushing teams like Dallas (5 YPC), averaging 4.5 or more yards per carry.

Oakland is 4-1 ATS as a dog of 10-points or more under coach Cable, but if they trail at halftime, don’t expect and comeback from the Silver and Black, as they have scored only 42 points in the final 30 minutes on the season, with a grand total of three trips into the end zone. (None in the third quarter)

The culprit is the lack of passing game, which averages an unfathomable 125 yards per game and Dallas is 15-3 ATS at home vs. destitute passing teams averaging 5.2 or less passing yards per attempt, winning by 17.4 points per game.

3DW Line – Dallas by 16

New York Giants at Denver (+6, 42.5)

The Thanksgiving Night game offers the best matchup of the three holiday tilts, as the Giants will be visiting the Broncos. Both teams started fast, with New York winning its first five games, and Denver winning its first six, but each have since faded. Both teams are 6-4 heading into this contest and in need of a win to keep pace in the playoff hunt.

New York (5-5 ATS) only plays Denver once every four years, but folks of the Big Apple always seem to have fond memories of playing the team in blue and orange. Besides the infamous 39-20 Giants win in Super Bowl XXI, Big Blue fans also remember knocking off a previously undefeated Broncos team in 1998, although John Elway would later lead his team to a second straight Super Bowl title a month later.

The 2009 version of this matchup should also provide a bit of drama since both teams once seemed secure in their playoff prospects, but now find themselves in a perilous position, with the loser lacking relevancy with December arriving next week.

A bye week served New York well and it got by Atlanta in overtime, 34-31. It also helped the Giants that Dallas, Philadelphia and the Falcons all lost while they were idle. A nagging issue has arisen, with the Giants incapable of holding fourth quarter leads, giving up a late touchdown to San Diego, causing a 21-20 defeat and surrendering two TD’s to Atlanta in the final stanza, sending last week’s contest into overtime. Possibly the best news moving forward is the G-Men are 18-5 ATS in road games over the last three seasons.

For the Giants, it’s the first visit to Denver since 2001, and they are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games vs. AFC foes and 9-1 ATS in previous 10 second half contests on the road vs. winning teams.

If any of this is cause for alarm, at least New York won their last game. Denver’s 6-0 start was the talk of the league and rookie head coach Josh McDaniels received more acclaim than the highly praised football drama “The Blind Side,” but four straight losses without covers has squelched all that talk. The latest, a 32-3 blowout defeat to surging San Diego, meant the Broncos (6-4 ATS) relinquished first place. Denver is 5-13 ATS after the first month of the season over the last two seasons.

Kyle Orton’s cool and collected presence has given way to injury and ineffectiveness. Hurt in the loss to Washington two weeks ago, Orton was dragged back into the huddle last week after backup Chris Simms turned in three ineffective series and led several trips into the Chargers red zone that came up empty.

The rushing attack has also suffered during the losing skid (82 yards per game), and the tandem of Knowshon Moreno and Correll Buckhalter has only three rushing touchdowns between them. Though wideout Brandon Marshall continues to have a solid season with 52 catches for 628 yards and six scores, his verbal confrontation on the sideline with Moreno after he suffered goal line fumble, spoke of the frustration this Denver team is experiencing. The Broncos could fall out of the AFC West race fast if they don't pick up a win soon and they are 2-12 ATS after one or more consecutive losses against the spread.

Bookmaker.com has the Giants as sizable seven-point road favorites, with total of 42. The oddsmakers have ample reasons to prefer New York in this spot since they are 9-1 AT in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second part if the year over the last three seasons. In addition, they are 8-0 ATS in a road conflicts when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points.

Even with last week’s loss, Denver is still 8-3-1 ATS as home underdog and have played UNDER in all five home games in 2009.

This will be the usual 8:20 Eastern start for Thursday night football on the NFL Network, with the Giants 10-0 UNDER as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points and the Broncos 12-3 OVER after having lost four out of their last five games.

3DW Line – Giants by 3.5

Steve Makinen of the Platinum Sheet and College and Pro Football Weekly made contributions to this article.

Thanksgiving and other Thursday NFL Trends

Let’s stop all this talk about changing out Detroit and Dallas on Thanksgiving to allow other teams to play. The Lions have been bad for years, so what, we still watch at least a good portion of the game and would it kill you to talk to a family member if the game isn’t a classic. We have three games to choose from during the course of the day, let’s just enjoy what we have.

• If both teams played at home last week, the home underdog is 2-9 ATS and 9-2 OVER. (Detroit and Denver)
• If both teams played at home last week, the home favorite is 10-4-1 ATS. (Dallas)
• If both teams were favorites in last contest, the home team 7-12-2 ATS (Detroit)
• If the home team was favored last week and the visitor was an underdog, the home team is 11-0 ATS. (Dallas)
• If the home team was an underdog in last game and the visiting team was a favorite, the home club is 1-8 ATS and 5-1 UNDER. (Denver)
• If the home town team is off a SU loss and the visitor is off a SU win, the road team is 7-1 ATS and 8-3 UNDER. (New York Giants)
• If the road team is off two wins, they are 10-3 ATS. (Green Bay)
• Road teams that were underdogs last week are 5-22 ATS. (Oakland)
• Home favorites of seven or more 7-1 UNDER. (Dallas)
• Home teams that were favored by six or more points in last contest are 12-3-1 ATS. (Dallas)
• Home teams of a SU win are 9-4-1 ATS and 22-13-1 OVER (Detroit and Dallas)
• Home teams off a SU loss are 4-8 ATS. (Denver)
• Home teams after scoring 28 or more points are 8-1 ATS and 12-4-1 OVER. (Detroit)
• In the last six years, home favorites are 18-8-1 ATS, including 8-1 ATS if favored by a touchdown or more. (Dallas)
• Away favorites are 9-0 ATS since 2004. (Green Bay and New York Giants)

Additional angles to think about.

• Take the OVER on turkey consumption.
• Play the OVER on one person having too much to drink.
• Take the OVER on at least 20 percent of those in attendance taking a nap.
• Play the OVER on potatoes consumed.
• Take the OVER on eyes rolled, snickers and laughter.
• Take the UNDER on cranberries eaten.
• Take the OVER on pumpkin pie and desserts.

The beginning of holiday week

We should have gone 3-0 yesterday, but the Giants lousy pass defense couldn’t hold a two touchdown lead in the fourth quarter, allowing us to slip to 2-1. Today out Best System is in the NFL and is in article listed below. The Top Trend heads all the way out to Maui and the Sal’s Top Free Play will arrive shortly.Good Luck

What I learned yesterday – The Colts defeated the Ravens, 17-15, to continue their recent trend of extending their winning streak in closely-contested games. The Colts' three other victories this month had come by scores of 18-14 over the 49ers, 20-17 over the Texans and 35-34 over the Patriots, and as in their win over the Ravens, the Colts had trailed in the fourth quarter in each game. Indianapolis became the first team in NFL history to win four consecutive games after trailing during the fourth quarter in each of those games.

The Colts became the first team in NFL history to win four consecutive games in the same season by a total margin of 10-or-fewer points. And they did it by filling an inside straight, having won those games by margins of one, two, three and four points. The previous record was set by the 1986 Giants: en route to winning the Super Bowl, Bill Parcells's team defeated the Cowboys, Eagles, Vikings and Broncos by a combined margin of 11 points. Thanks, Elias

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Football System-1) See the Monday night system in below article

Free Basketball Trend-2) The Cincinnati Bearcats are 1-12 ATS after two or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons.

Free Football Pick -3) Sal’s says take the points with the Titans, he's also playing them on the money line.

Paul Buck’s Monday Night Magic- Guaranteed

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Seeking the Big Bounce Back

Hoy Cow, got kicked around but good yesterday with 0-4 record. We’ll look to bounce back immediately, starting with NFL system that is 86.6 percent. The Top Trend is once again perfect, just in the opposite direction. Sal is back and gives out his top play. Good Luck

What I learned yesterday – I’ve been getting my can kicked in college football (below.500) and was talking to friend from Las Vegas whom I haven’t spoken to since early September. He’s up on all happenings on the betting scene in the town and he had a very interesting observation about college football. He said guys that are math-based handicappers are having a below average to bad years (that would be me), but streak players or guys that fly from the seat of their pants are doing quite well, because how they look at numbers and situations is different and things have gone their way.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Football System-1) PLAY ON favorites off a bye week that lost by four or less points in their last outing as a favorite. Since 1990, this system is 13-2 ATS and is focused on the Giants this week.

Free Football Trend-2) The Jacksonville Jaguars are 1-10 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons, losing by more than two points per game.

Free Football Pick -3) One of my favorite guys in Sal, who is on 14-5 roll in the NFL, including his sweet call on Miami on Thursday. Today he doesn’t care what the price is on the Chargers, take them.

3Daily Winners Guaranteed NFL Game of the Week.

The Platinum Sheet has an expert hitting 57 percent ATS picking ALL NFL games.

Looking Ahead in the Rearview Mirror

Let’s get a couple of things out of the way before we start. I liked when Notre Dame hired Charley Weis, I really did. I enjoyed his bravado, his I’m smarter then you attitude, it was a refreshing change for a truly holier than thou place.

In the last couple of years, I defended Weis as Notre Dame slid to levels not seen before in South Bend, but it’s over, no more. It’s time for Weis to be on the clock towards heading back to the NFL, it’s not going to work.

Chances are numerous 10-year old children raised families and could have become grandparents between Navy victories over Notre Dame from 1963 to 2007, now it’s happened twice in three years at Notre Dame Stadium. Weis deserves the blame. The players he’s recruited can’t stop the run or the pass. He’s changed defensive coaches, he’s called the plays, he’s let somebody else call the plays and then decided he should call them again. Generally speaking, the feeling is the only constant is change and not for the better.

I heard ESPN radio’s Colin Cowherd say Charley Weis didn’t just become dumb. He’s a smart man; he helped build the New England Patriots dynasty if you will. He certainly knows more about football than the average fan. He went on to add that sometimes even the smartest people make bad decisions, but that doesn’t make them stupid.

But how smart is Weis to not to have players prepared for Navy? They lost to them just two years ago, who cares if they are a foot shorter and 70 pounds lighter, the Middies are going to bring it, especially against Notre Dame. But an unmotivated team after pounding up on Washington State was out-everythinged by Navy. Goodbye BCS. The Irish are underdogs at Pittsburgh this week and very likely will be underdogs at Stanford, so thoughts of 10-2 in August are realistically heading towards 7-5.

The Notre Dame brass was dumb enough to give Weis 10-year contract, I’m certain they are three phone calls away from somebody donating for buyout of his contract. Brian Kelly of Cincinnati by all appearances is the right guy; a self-made coach who has won at every level and shown even the Bearcats can win at very highest of levels. Is Notre Dame relevant to an 18-year old, probably not that much, but no reason for this! I admire what his family life has been like, but that is separate from football. Sorry Charley.

While mentioning Cincy, I wonder when was the last time a team had over 700 yards of offense and didn’t cover. That was the Bearcats who hung on to win over Connecticut 47-45 as 16-point home favorites.

Another team similar to Notre Dame, lacking overall talent is Iowa and it finally caught up to them in loss to Northwestern. Losing QB Ricky Stanzi was chaotic blow and they lacked enough other offensive weapons to survive yet again. Unbeaten teams that lose late in the year are good play against clubs and Ohio State was impressive on both sides of the ball in dominating Penn State on the road. The Buckeyes have won by 20 points per game in last five meetings.

Stanford was setup for perfect situation and delivered upset over Oregon 51-42 as a touchdown home underdog. Often when teams are flat it shows up on defense and penalties. The Ducks were torched for 505 yards against the Cardinal and had nine penalties to three for Stanford. Oregon should have no problem with Arizona State this week, however the trip to Tucson won’t be a picnic and Oregon State is starting to play very good football.

Kudos to Alabama for sucking it up at home against LSU, winning 24-15 as seven-point favorites. A 14-0 fourth quarter run showed championship ability. Granted, the Tigers didn’t have all their offensive weapons due to injury late in the game, but the Crimson Tide’s desire was wholly evident.

In the NFL, its official, the New York Giants are as Tom Petty once sang “free fallin”. Giants’ apologists are saying nobody knows his team better than coach Tom Coughlin, trying to explain away why the Giants never threw the ball twice when at the San Diego 14-yard line, before settling for field goal and 20-14 lead. Should New York have stopped the Chargers in game winning drive, of course, nonetheless having 10-point lead would have made it a whole lot easier. The Giants may have failed just the same, but you have to try and score a touchdown. The bye couldn’t have come at a better time for New York, who faces a very challenging last seven games.

Recent history has told us to never judge Dallas until December, yet the win at Philly showed a tougher Cowboys club and a smarter Tony Romo.

The New England at Indianapolis game this week should be ridiculously fun.

The Green Bay Packers are not well-coached (went over that last week) and have put together poor game plans on offense and defense the last few weeks. Rookie Bucs QB Josh Freeman looked like a 10-year against Green Bay, who had former DE Aaron Kampman guarding a back out of the backfield near the goal line in new defensive scheme. Touchdown Tampa Bay. Packers get Dallas at home, good luck.

Wonder if Jay Cutler has Denver nightmares? Did you know the New Orleans defense has as many touchdowns as Drew Brees has touchdown passes the last three weeks?(5) Are the Bengals really more physical than Baltimore? After beating them twice as underdogs and running the ball effectively both times the answer is yes. The loss of receiver Chris Henry will hurt however.

As talented as Anquan Boldin is, are the Arizona Cardinals better without him? Bolden was unhappy sideline viewer with injury against Chicago and really for the first time all year, the Cardinals made concerted effort to get the ball to Larry Fitzgerald and the offense looked like the one that went to the Super Bowl. The Bears defense was embarrassed at home.

Good for Vince Young, with Tennessee winning consecutive games. He’s sparked the entire team. He’ll never be a fantasy player pick, but if he keeps working at his craft and plays to his strengths, he could well become a solid winning NFL quarterback. The Titans are not going anywhere, but they will be a dangerous underdog the rest of the year if they keep playing hard.

NFL Week 9 Sunday Key Info

New York may have the champions of baseball, but they also have football that was supposed to be a Super Bowl contender that’s surrendered 110 points in three consecutive losses. The Giants will attempt to end losing streak against San Diego before their bye week. It’s a conundrum for NFL sports bettors, with several large spreads in division games; do you take or give the points? Baltimore upset Denver last week and is now a road favorite at first place Cincinnati who’s rested off a bye. Hmmm.

Houston at Indianapolis 1:00E CBS

Houston (5-3, 4-3-1 ATS) has only beaten Indianapolis one time in franchise history, against 13 defeats (8-6 ATS). A second win would help close the gap between the teams in the AFC South race. That is an unlikely occurrence though, as oddsmakers have Indy as a heavy nine-point favorite, and the Colts average home win over the Texans has been 35-17. Houston does have the ability to keep it close though, since last year’s two meetings were decided by four and six points, and head coach Gary Kubiak’s team is 5-2 ATS in pre-bye week games, all as an underdog. Also, Indy (7-0, 5-2 ATS) is on a 1-4 spread slide at home vs. AFC South foes, while Houston has covered seven of its last nine against divisional games. The last eight meetings between these teams have gone OVER the total, averaging 56.1 points per game, with 48 being the fewest points scored.

Keys to the Game-

Houston finally had a big rushing day, running over Buffalo for 186 yards. The Texans are still only 28th in rushing, but it’s a start and Indianapolis is 23rd in the league in allowing 4.5 yards per carry. Establishing a running game keeps Peyton Manning on the bench. Who leads the NFL in passing yards, not Manning, its Matt Schaub. The former Virginia signal caller has lots of weapons, even without TE Owen Daniels (out for season). Schaub has to be judicious in making the right choices and not turning the ball over. Houston is 10-2 ATS in the second two road encounters and has improved immensely on defense going from 32nd after three games, to current 16th ranking. Stop the Colts running game and play coverage, since blitzing Manning only works if you get there.

Indianapolis will have to bring a pass rush, since they are up against a decided mismatch with backups at the corners vs. talented Texans’ pass catchers. While Manning threw for 349 yards last week, it was an “off” game for him as the Colts kicked four field goals in scoring only 18 points. Manning seldom has two such games and Houston only has 11 sacks (T-29th). Indy is 9-1 ATS off a non-cover when the team won as a favorite over the last three seasons.

3DWLine – Indianapolis by 9
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Indianapolis -8.5, 50

Baltimore at Cincinnati 1:00E CBS

Baltimore and Cincinnati have an important rematch, of what was one of the most exciting games of 2009 to date. The Bengals (5-2, 4-3 ATS) won in Baltimore 17-14, as nine-point underdogs, on a last minute field goal and have since stayed atop the AFC North Division. This week’s venue switches to the Queen City, where favorites have won the last five head-to-head series meetings. Cincinnati owns a 3-2 SU & ATS edge in that span. The Bengals were on bye last week and are just 4-9 ATS in post-bye week games since 1996. They are 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS in division games this season. The Ravens (4-3, 5-2 ATS) won a big game against Denver to snap a three-game losing skid and climb back over .500. They are backed by a StatFox Super Situation showing road teams as 60-27 ATS since 2005 revenging an upset loss at home.

Keys to the Game-

Denver made a big miscue in not attacking Baltimore’s corners down the field, Cincinnati won’t let that pass. The Ravens secondary problems can be masked with pass rush, however Carson Palmer has too much talent on the perimeter, this means Baltimore has to keep damage to a minimum. If anything, stop the run and force Palmer into bad down and distance situations. Note to Baltimore- Stop playing such vanilla defense, keep blitzing like last week. Baltimore has to run effectively with its three-headed monster and control the game in that fashion and let Joe Flacco run play-action. Flacco is averaging 7.0 yards per pass attempt and the Birds are 19-3 ATS when they gain 6.5 to 7 net passing YPA.

Palmer was burned by Ed Reed for Pick Six in last encounter; he must stay away from the All-Pro safety. One difference Cincinnati has this season that is a benefit against Baltimore is more physical style in the trenches. They can compete and welcome back RT Andre Smith, which should only helps RB Cedric Benson. Tight end Todd Heap again is not healthy, which places a premium on bottling WR Derrick Mason. Put Mason in a defensive jar (pitiful) and the Bengals are 7-0 ATS as underdogs.

3DW Line – Baltimore by 3
Bookmaker.com Line – Baltimore -3, 44.5

Miami at New England 1:00E CBS

The Patriots (5-2, 4-3 ATS) are starting to strike fear into opponents and oddsmakers once again, and wins of 35-7 and 59-0 in a two-week span tend to do that. Reestablishing a dominant home field advantage also helps, as they are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their previous home contests with an average win of 24.4 points per game. They have had two weeks to bask in the limelight of a satisfying win in London over the Bucs, but need to get back to business here against division rival Miami (3-4 ATS). New England has won and covered five straight games as a post-bye week favorite, but has lost both of its divisional battles against the spread this season. They are 6-3 SU and ATS hosting Miami since 2000. The Dolphins are 3-4 after winning miraculously in New York last week. They are 4-0 SU & ATS on the divisional road under coach Tony Sparano.

Keys to the Game-

Did Miami really beat the Jets after having 52 yards passing and 52 yards rushing last week? That’s not going to work against New England unless they have three non-offensive touchdowns again. The Dolphins need running game to work right for the first quarter, as Chad Henne did not look nearly as comfortable in enemy territory. Attack the Patriots deep, be it with Ted Ginn Jr. or rookie Brian Hartline, to keep New England from crowding the line of scrimmage to stop the run. The Fins have young secondary and unless Joey Porter and Jason Taylor can create havoc, Miami falls to 4-16 ATS off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog.

Tom Brady looks better with each passing game, as the affects of knee surgery dissipate. Having great sight lines and clean pocket opens up the entire Pats playbook for Brady, which suggests the offensive line has to do its job. New England was the first victim of Miami “wildcat” last season and contained it the second time around. With two weeks for Bill Belichick to breakdown any more nuances, New England might really put the clamps on. Belichick has a history of limiting quarterbacks with not much experience. The Patriots are 24-9 ATS off a win by two touchdowns or more and cannot let the Miami special teams be a factor or the game tightens considerably.

3DW Line – New England by 10.5
Sportsbook.com Line – New England -10.5, 46.5

Carolina at New Orleans 4:05E FOX

New Orleans (7-0, 6-1 ATS) wraps up a two-game divisional homestand when it hosts Carolina (3-4, 2-5 ATS). The Saints will look to turn the tide on what has been a run of dominance by the Panthers in this series in New Orleans. In fact, Carolina owns a 7-1 SU and 7-0-1 ATS record in its last eight trips to Bourbon Street. Expanding on that, road teams have gone 11-4 SU and are scintillating 13-1-1 ATS overall in the last 15 series engagements. That might be all that head coach John Fox’s team has going as a double-digit dog, since these teams have gone in different directions since their regular season ending meeting in January. Since then the Panthers have gone just 3-5 SU & ATS, while the Saints had yet to lose in 2009. New Orleans is 2-6 ATS in the second of back-to-back home games under Sean Payton.

Keys to the Game –

Carolina got back to playing Panthers football in Arizona, rushing for 270 yards. That formula is what works best for coach Fox’s club and they have to be encouraged Atlanta gouged New Orleans for 6.7 yards per carry (161yards) last Monday night. The Saints feast on mistakes, QB Jake Delhomme has to made decisions like a Rhodes Scholar and not give New Orleans opportunities. The Panthers are 15-6 ATS on the NFC South road since 2002 and have to create a profusion of defensive looks to at least make Drew Brees hesitate an instant and hope the pass rush arrives.

Jumping on Carolina is the best way to beat them. This has been Saints M.O. this year and it takes away the Panthers running game and makes Delhomme a thrower. Advantage Saints. Teams are blitzing Brees more and he has to be more cognizant in the pocket, especially to his back side. New Orleans offense is truly prolific averaging 39 points per game; however they are living in danger committing four turnovers each of the last two games. The Saints are 12-2 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons, but just 3-10 against the number if it is 10 or more.

3DWLine – New Orleans by 17.5
Bookmaker.com Line – New Orleans -13, 51.5

San Diego at N. Y. Giants 4:15E CBS

Two of the preseason favorites in their respective conferences get together when the Giants host the Chargers (2-5 ATS). Neither team has lived up to advanced billing, as both are looking up in the standings in their own divisions, much less conferences. San Diego is 4-3 after beating Oakland, but faces a pair of NFC East powers then a trip to Denver. They are 1-3 SU and ATS on the road vs. NFC foes under coach Norv Turner. The Giants (5-3 SU&ATS) have lost three straight games for the first time since 2006, and are 0-5 ATS in their last five pre-bye week games vs. AFC foes. This starts a stretch of four home games in five contests and the G-Men are 22-9 ATS under Tom Coughlin vs. good offenses gaining 5.65 or more yards per play. New York is 4-1 SU and ATS hosting AFC opposition.

Keys to the Game-

Wasn’t it nice to see LaDainian Tomlinson score a couple of touchdowns last week? Even with that “outburst”, San Diego is still 31st in running the ball, averaging 74.7 YPG against teams that have allowed 114. San Diego has to have even a tolerable running game to help Phillip Rivers, who is third in the league at 8.1 yards per attempt, even without any help. The frequently jaw-jacking Rivers has to like his chances against secondary that has been torched for 262.3 yards the last three weeks. On defense, keep the pressure on Eli Manning to perpetuate his funk. The Chargers are emotional team and feed off it. The Bolts are 11-3 ATS after two or more SU wins and 23-10 ATS on the NFC road.

The Giants are ninth in sacks at 18, but nowhere the previous levels of the last couple of years. New DC Bill Sheridan doesn’t trust he faulty secondary and has been reluctant to blitz, however the results without sending extra attackers hasn’t been encouraging either. The San Diego offensive line has been spotty in protection, your call Bill, as big plays are killing the Giants. Manning has to return to earlier form to make offense click. Unless New York is going to run for 250 yards, they have to have Eli be on target. The Giants are 14-5 ATS after allowing 30 points or more last game.

StatFox Power Line – Giants by 2
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Giants -4.5, 48

Steve Makinen of StatFox contributed to this article.

Looking Ahead in the Rearview Mirror in the NFL

It was a long Sunday night in Cheese-land and probably a pretty slow work day Monday in much of the state of Wisconsin after Brett Favre and the Minnesota Vikings defeated the beloved Packers at Lambeau Field late Sunday afternoon. The realization is complete, no matter what Green Bay had hoped for, Brett Favre is still a very good quarterback and he makes the players around him better.

It was also an EXTREMELY painful day for coach Mike McCarthy and GM Ted Thompson, as their worst nightmare came true. About the only thing that will heal this wound is beating Minnesota in the playoffs and going to the Super Bowl. In the end, the Minnesota front office was able to do something Green Bay’s front office wasn’t willing to do, swallow their ego, do embarrassing public groveling and secure the quarterback they needed.

Talking to a bookie in Wisconsin, he absolutely cleaned up, with over 80 percent of his action on the Packers; many betting more than usual because of their desire to have their modern day Benedict Arnold get his.

Here is what we know. Minnesota is decidedly stronger along the offensive and defensive lines than Green Bay. Brad Childress is emulating his former boss Andy Reid in surrounding his quarterback with playmakers who are difference-makers. Coach McCarthy should return his salary for one game for his performance in Week 8.

Part of being a coach is understanding your personnel. It’s imperative to place those players in the best position to win by comprehending their weaknesses and building on strengths. In the first half of the game against the Vikings, there was no discernable difference in the game plan Green Bay had just weeks prior at the Metrodome. No extra blockers to protect bodily harm on Aaron Rodgers and pass routes that took too long to develop. Rodgers played equally as uninformed, standing in the pocket, hanging on the ball too long and taking sacks. The defense rushed three players in passing downs and Favre could have ordered from his restaurant just up the street and had it delivered with the amount of time he had in the pocket.

Finally, after Minnesota took a commanding 24-3 lead in the third quarter, a sense of urgency arrived. Rodgers stepped up in the pocket and released the ball quicker. The offensive line made a cleaner pocket by driving Vikings D-linemen to the outside, forming better pocket and the defense started bring a fourth or fifth player to pressure Favre and Green Bay stormed back to trail 31-26.

With the game at its most critical juncture, McCarthy’s flopped. On 4th and 8, the Packer coach went for a 51-yard field to narrow the lead to two points if good. The problem was the risk was too great for the reward. The miss gave Minnesota not only a sigh of relief and renewed confidence; it gave them the ball at their 41-yard line. Granted, a Packers failed fourth down conversion would have only been a difference of eight yards, however that is essentially one more first down. In the end, the Pack’s organization took a big hit, are left to squander for wild card most likely and Green Bay fans betting with their hearts are heart-broken and have a little less money than they started off the weekend.

The sportsbooks returned to the winning side this past Sunday, thanks to two games in particular. Indianapolis was a solid 11-point favorite and was -13 by Sunday morning. A rare off day by Peyton Manning standards exposed just how ordinary Indianapolis offense can be when he’s not right. The boxscore shows Manning passed for 347 yards, however at least seven of his incompletions were throws he usually connects on. San Francisco coach Mike Singletary needs to put in offense with Alex Smith throwing from the shot-gun more, he looks much more comfortable.

The other bonanza was the Giants. Sports bettors saw Brian Westbrook out, Giants off a pair of bad losses and incredible road record and tripped over themselves to bet the G-Men, moving the line from +3 to -2 at kickoff on New York. The more mentally and physically prepared team was Philly in building 33-7 halftime lead. Eli Manning looks like the quarterback from early 2007 and both lines are unable to compensate for other weakness.

Next Sunday’s night Dallas at Philadelphia should be fun.

Both the Colts and Giants were in a number of parlay and teasers along the San Diego who was -10 in six-point teaser cards, helping the books.

The Buffalo and Carolina game of a week ago had an impact on this past Sunday. The Bills were a fairly popular among handicappers having pulled off consecutive road upsets and at home as underdog. Obviously nobody was watching Buffalo play, as a case can be made Ryan Fitzpatrick is the worst No.2 quarterback in the NFL. He was just awful taking over for Carson Palmer in Cincinnati last season. And despite being the under center for both upsets of the Jets and Panthers, Fitzpatrick had passed for less than 120 yards per game. Nothing changed as he totaled 117 yards thru the air in Buffalo’s convincing 31-10 home loss.

Carolina still has issues, but when they have the right mindset and execute coach John Fox football, these Cats are handful. Carolina was determined from the first snap, something Arizona wasn’t (still gloating evidently from Giants win), and shoved the ball down the throat of supposedly stout run Cardinals run defense for 270 yards. Kurt Warner looked every bit of 38-years old, throwing five interceptions and fumbling. Off a sound performance and catching the Saints off a Monday night game, Carolina is intriguing underdog in the Bayou as underdog having a 7-1 ATS mark in New Orleans. The Cardinals whine about respect playing in the Super Bowl, but dud performances like that only back what people believe about their inconsistency, as does 1-3 SU and ATS home record. All three losses were as favorites.

Chicago Bears fans have been groveling all season wondering what happened to the Kyle Orton who couldn’t keep starting job in the Windy City. Sunday, they finally saw him in Denver’s whipping by motivated Baltimore team. The public punched the Ravens ticket moving them 1.5-points from early Saturday afternoon to -4.5. Watch for how the Broncos react, with Pittsburgh in the Mile High City next Monday.

Know your Numbers- Teams allowing 40 or more points and playing the following week were 3-0 SU and against the spread, taking their record to 6-2 ATS on the year.—Short numbers have not been healthy for favorites. Home favorites of three or less are 13-10, 12-10-1 ATS and backing small road faves at three or less produces 4-8 SU and ATS record. –After four weeks, NFL favorites were 36-26 ATS, however, that has flattened out, with the chalk 25-28-1ATS the last month. –This has been happening with regularity of lately. Teams traveling three time zones struggle with initial trip. This season, the first 10 games that applied the visitor was 2-8 ATS. The last four contests after coaches knowing what to expect and warning squads are 4-0 ATS. Watch for results of Detroit and San Diego this week.

Week 8 NFL Options

The schedule might be on the light side again this week, nevertheless meaningful NFL action will be conducted. Who doesn’t want to see Brett Favre in his return to Green Bay and it is made all the more interesting with the Packers favored and they could nearly tie Minnesota for first place in the NFC North. It’s Game 1 of day/night doubleheader for New York at Philadelphia, with the first contest on the gridiron. Denver places its perfect record on the line in Baltimore and the Jets look to build on last week 38-0 shutdown hosting Miami. Seeing it’s a Halloween weekend, thought going a little macabre and discuss the merits of the Rams and Lions contest.

N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia 1:00E FOX

If Philadelphia (4-2 SU&ATS) is to make a statement in the NFC East in 2009, the next two games will be the turning point. With home games vs. the Giants and Dallas on tap, the Eagles have a real chance to make themselves a factor. History might be on their side for this week’s game if the line remains the same, as underdogs have dominated the Philadelphia-New York series of late, going 7-2 SU & 9-0 ATS in the last nine meetings. With injuries to key Philadelphia offensive personnel, Donovan McNabb and Eagles fans will try and lift the team to 9-3 ATS at Lincoln Financial Field. The Giants are 5-2 SU and ATS after losing to Arizona and continue a brutal schedule that will take them all the way through January. They are 21-12 ATS in divisional games under coach Tom Coughlin and have coved 10 of last 12 on the road.

Keys to the Game-

The Giants have lost two in a row, not getting enough of a pass rush and secondary being exposed due to injuries. Making McNabb as uncomfortable as possible has to be defensive goal. Another is limiting the chances for explosive DeSean Jackson to beat them. Punter Jeff Feagles has to directional kick accurately and for reasonable distance, something he failed to do last week. The G-Men are 14-4 ATS after playing a game at home and Eli Manning has to rediscover accuracy. When he’s as off-target as he’s been the last two weeks, it’s usually because he strays from fundamentals.

At last check, coach Andy Reid doesn’t need an invitation to throw the pass, look for him to test the Giants secondary, expect numerous three and four-receivers sets. Brian Westbrook won’t play, which means rookie LeSean McCoy has to be prepared, but not be anxious. The Eagles are 14-4 ATS in home games after playing on Monday night and will be taking calculated risk the Giants pass rush won’t get McNabb. If it does, Philly coaches will have to make quick in-game adjustments.

3DWLine – Philadelphia by 2
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – N.Y. Giants -1, 44.5

St. Louis at Detroit 1:00E FOX

The nice thing about games like St. Louis-Detroit is that the oddsmakers still post betting lines on them. Oh, and also, one of the clubs will get a confidence boosting win. These have been the two worst NFC teams for the past several years, but haven’t gone head-to-head since 2006 when the Rams (0-7, 2-5 ATS) won a 41-34 affair as 5.5-point favorites. The Lions (1-5, 2-4 ATS) will be a rare home favorite, the first such instance since December 2007 in fact. Including that SU win/ATS loss vs. the Chiefs, Detroit is on a 4-0 SU & 2-1-1 ATS run as home chalk (now that’s scary). Coming off their bye week, the Lions also own a winning record in post-bye games of late, with 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS mark. St. Louis is still looking for a first win but stop the presses; the Rams own a 3-2 ATS record in their last road games (oh the humanity!)

Keys to the Game-

Anyone reading this deserves a key to the city from either Detroit or St. Louis. Quarterback Marc Bulger has looked ill-suited for the last couple of offenses he’s been in charge of since Mike Martz left town. His career path is taking on Joey Harrington proportions. In this celebration of losers, Bulger has to throw crisper passes that finish off drives, especially against NFL's 30th-ranked pass defense. Steven Jackson is the Rams best player by a generous margin, give him the ball until he collapses from exhaustion, that’s OK, St. Louis has bye next week. Otherwise, Rams fall to 6-19 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points.

Receiver Calvin Johnson has been upgraded to probable, which is big help for team is desperate need of being able to stretch the field. The Rams allowed 7.8 yards per pass attempt (31st in NFL), which should provide Detroit ample opportunity to attack down the field. The Lions rushed for over 129 yards against Minnesota and Washington in weeks 2 and 3 and 92.6 per game since. The offensive line has to return to physical football. The Lions are 3-13 ATS tackling wretched defensive teams who give up 27 or more points and they better tackle Jackson or add one digit to right side of ledger.

3DWLine – Detroit by 8.5
Bookmaker.com Line – Detroit -4, 43.5

Denver at Baltimore 1:00E CBS

Teams coming off their bye week will meet when Baltimore hosts Denver. They come in riding completely different waves of momentum however. The Broncos last beat San Diego to take full control of the AFC West Division at 6-0. They are unblemished ATS as well (6-0), and are allowing a league best 11.0 points per game. In fact, strange as it is, the Denver defense is the better unit in this matchup. Baltimore (4-2 ATS) has lost three straight games to fall back to .500, and is yielding 21.7 points per game (19th) and 5.8 yards per play (23rd) after six contests. Those numbers fall well short of the accomplishments of the 2008 Ravens which were the No.2 overall defense. Head coach John Harbaugh’s team faces back-to-back divisional road tests after this one; making it all the more important they win this ballgame. In this head-to-head series, the Ravens and UNDER are both 5-1 ATS in last six conflicts.

Keys to the Game-

How teams have been dissecting the Ravens is by spreading them out. Coach Josh McDaniels has had two weeks to break down tape and can view the Baltimore secondary is beatable in several ways. Kyle Orton has thrived in this offense and has one worthless Hail Mary interception on the season. As every quarterback facing the Ravens at least knows, find safety Ed Reed first before throwing. Denver is 16-5 ATS after a bye week and will want to introduce linebacker Elvis Dumervil to Joe Flacco and build on his 10.5 sack total already this season.

Coach Harbaugh trusts Flacco this season more as passer, maybe too much. To start the season the Ravens ran the ball over 33 times a game, during the current three game losing streak, almost half, at 17.6 carries per contest. This would be a good time to establish tight end Todd Heap and fullback Le'Ron McClain and keep the Denver defense on the field for extended periods of time. Baltimore has covered nine of last 11 as a favorite and has to tackle better with all the short stuff Denver throws and completely take away the run. Baltimore needs points of some kind every time they are Denver territory.

3DWLine – Baltimore by 2
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Baltimore -3.5, 41.5

Miami at N.Y. Jets 1:00E CBS

It will be a quick turnaround for the AFC East rematch between the Dolphins and Jets, who met just three weeks ago in an entertaining Monday night contest in Miami. The Dolphins (2-4 SU&ATS) won that game 31-27 as three-point home underdogs to boost their record in divisional play to 6-2 ATS under Tony Sparano. (Interesting to note the Fins are less than point difference playing on the road compared to home vs. New York) However, this will be the first time since September 27th that they will have played on the road after struggling to just 20 points in two away losses. New York (4-3 SU&ATS) wraps up its home divisional slate with this contest and is looking to improve a 1-7-1 ATS mark in that scenario since 2006. New coach Rex Ryan’s team was able to snap its three-game losing streak last week in Oak-Town to climb back over .500 on the season. The Jets own the edge in the recent series clashes in New York, going 12-5 SU & 10-4-3 ATS since David Dinkins was elected mayor of new York City. (1992)

Keys to the Game –

This week Miami has to get more out of their base offense and likely be less dependent on the Wildcat. The Jets have seen live once already and should have a good read on how to contain or stop it. Having Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown in the game at the same time, adds a new element of deception, running draws and screens from different sets. Ted Ginn Jr. needs sideline time, he’s more a deterrent than help to Dolphins offense. Have Chad Henne chuck the pigskin to Brian Hartline and others. Miami is 3-13 ATS off a non-division contest, playing a division rival next and have to hope rookie cornerbacks Vontae Davis and Sean Smith can hold up against the pass and run.

This will be Henne’s first road start and Ryan’s bunch has to apply the pressure to him and make him feel as unsafe as midnight walk thru Central Park. Miami averaged better than six yards per Wildcat carry three weeks ago, that needs to be sliced in half. The Flyboys are only 1-5 ATS after opponent hangs a zero on the scoreboard, however can improve that record by giving Mark Sanchez a similar gameplan to last week. Keep it simple and add elements as the game progresses based on need. You traded for Braylon Edwards, keep him involved.

3DWLine – Jets by 3
Bookmaker.com Line – N.Y. Jets -3.5, 40.5

Minnesota at Green Bay 4:15E FOX

It seems like they played just yesterday, but Sunday is already time for the much anticipated rematch between Brett Favre’s Vikings, and his old team, Packers. This game might even be bigger than the last meeting, as this will be the first time Favre will return to Lambeau Field. It’s also important because the lead in the NFC North Division will be on the line, with Green Bay (4-2 SU&ATS) having a chance to pull even in the loss column with a win. The Vikings (6-1, 4-3 ATS) won round 1 but are off their first loss and looking to improve a 1-5 ATS record in their last six pre-bye week divisional games. They are also just 1-5 SU & ATS in NFC Central road contests of late. Green Bay is on a 7-1 SU and ATS surge as divisional hosts and has won six of the last nine at Curly Lambeau’s place. Minnesota owns a 7-2 ATS edge on the almost frozen tundra.

Keys to the Game-

If Brett Favre said he’s never been more nervous before a game than the one in Minnesota, wait until this one. Coach Brad Childress has to script the plays that allow Favre to come out aggressively, yet stay away from danger. Adrian Peterson has been fairly well bottled up four of the last five games and should be utilized more in the screen game to exploit his open field talents. The Vikings only have six turnovers on the year, the two last week cost them the game. Protect the ball against the team with the best turnover ratio in the NFL. Minny’s offense is fire and they are 14-3 ATS after gaining 375 or more total yards in three consecutive contests.

Focus the running game to the left, run the ball at Jared Allen almost exclusively the first part of the game. Work is body and legs to slow down his pass rush for later. Aaron Rodgers went to Cal, thus he should have enough education to dump the ball off to backs or tight end instead of taking negative plays. With CB Antoine Winfield out, work underneath passes to start and run double moves against fair to below average safeties. The Packers defense has allowed three points to two crummy teams (Lions and Browns), yet it is not a coincidence that since Aaron Kampman has played in three-point stance in passing situations, the defense has improved. The Pack is 8-1 ATS at home off a double digit win and has to muddy the back of No.4’s jersey starting in the first quarter.

3DW Line – Green Bay by 6

DiammondSportsbook.com Line – Green Bay -3, 47

Steve Makinen of StatFox contributed to this article.

NFL Plays and sad commentary

I was a little shaky on yesterday’s prospects being good and 2-2 record for the week proved the point. Today we’ll look to do better, starting with an 8.11 percent NFL system. The Top Trend is in Sunday Night football and don’t forget to look back to Wednesday for NFL Totals Play. Good Luck

What I thought yesterday – I’m having a crummy CFB season betting wise and one game summed it up yesterday. I wonder (if ever) when was the last time an underdog was getting +15.5 points, scored 45 points and still failed to cover. Ironically, it was Idaho who was 7-0 ATS before yesterday.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Football System-1) PLAY ON any team like the Niners that are an average offensive team (18-23 PPG) against an average defensive team (18-23 PPG), after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half. Since 2005 this system is 30-7, 81.1 percent.

Free Football Trend-2) The New York Giants are 15-2 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61 percent or better over the last three seasons.

Free Football Pick -3) Ken of the LCC has hit his top play in the NFL all six weeks and has Dallas at -4.5.

Guaranteed NFL Winners Today!

Week 6 of the NFL

This week of the National Football League season brings the top game of the season to date, with two unbeaten teams colliding in Norleans. The top inter-conference match has undefeated Minnesota facing a scuffling Baltimore bunch. Among the better division conflicts is Arizona at Seattle in the NFC West. Cincinnati id favored by more than field goal, which means a touchdown in the last 20 seconds to win and cover again for the Bengals. The rest of schedule is why the bye week doesn’t always work well and Tennessee and New England lost the coin flip.

N.Y. Giants at New Orleans 1:00E FOX

Three NFC teams have set themselves apart in the first five weeks, and two of them match up on Sunday in New Orleans when the Saints (4-0 SU&ATS) host the Giants (5-0 SU&ATS) in a battle of unbeaten teams. It will be a battle of wills, as New York has been the best road team in the league under Tom Coughlin, going 31-13 ATS, including 19-10 ATS as an underdog. New Orleans has developed a strong home field advantage of late though; winning five of its last six contests both SU & ATS, outscoring opponents by 14.5 points per game. The Saints have also scored 23 points or more in every home game since Oct. 21 2007, a span of 14 games. They are looking to break a 0-3 SU & ATS record in post-bye week games under Sean Payton however. In this head-to-head series, home team own a 7-2 SU & 6-2-1 ATS edge in the nine meetings.

Keys to the Game-

Right now there is only one way to beat New Orleans, attack Drew Brees. New York has the front four wholly capable of going so and their secondary has quietly moved up the ladder to a top notch outfit. Brees is playing the best football of his career, but no quarterback will be successful without time. Defense end Osi Umenyiora will be facing backup left tackle, with Jammal Brown out, he must dominate. Look for Giants’ defenders to have loose lips to frustrate former teammate Jeremy Shockey with a steady stream of billingsgate and have him cause discord. The G-Men are 14-4 ATS playing against a team with a winning record over the last three seasons.

In case one hasn’t noticed, all the ESPN highlights about the Saints have been mostly Drew Brees passes. New Orleans is second in the league in rushing at 166.2 yards per game and coach Payton has shown remarkable patience is staying with the run, especially the last two games. If Pierre Thomas and others can keep their team in reasonable down and distance situations, Payton’s play sheet is more versatile. Don’t expect Brees to see what the Giants allow, instead the game plan will be to attack New York’s weaknesses, based on game film study. Defensive ends Will Smith and Charles Grant have to bring the pressure on Eli Manning and interior of the defense has to be stout against Giants running game. Try this, unbeaten favorites of three or more off a bye are astonishing 16-1 ATS.

3DW Line – New Orleans by 2.5

DiamondSportsbook.com Line – New Orleans -3, 47

Baltimore at Minnesota 1:00E CBS

One of the most intriguing contests on the Week 6 slate is an inter-conference battle with Minnesota hosting Baltimore. The Vikings (5-0, 4-1 ATS) are unbeaten but begin a tough stretch of three games before their bye week. Under coach Brad Childress, they are just 11-16 ATS as hosts, including 3-3 SU & ATS vs. AFC foes. Another negative number for the Minnesota franchise is 2-9 ATS mark vs. good teams outscoring opponents by six or more points in his tenure. The Ravens (3-2 ATS) are 3-2 and head into their off week next Sunday. They have won and covered just once in their last four games on the road versus NFC foes. Baltimore is 6-1UNDER in its pre-bye week contests and the underdog has covered four in a row in that scenario. This is the first visit ever by the Ravens to the Metrodome, but they have won the previous two meetings both SU & ATS.

Keys to the Game-

The Baltimore defense is not in the Top 5, it is 10th in the NFL. The ferociousness has dissipated. To get back to winners circle, the Ravens have to keep Adrian Peterson running laterally and stayed disciplined to avoid cutbacks. Brett Favre has faced almost no pass rush this season, except for a few plays against San Francisco. Make him feel his age. Baltimore is 8-1 ATS this month after consecutive SU & ATS setbacks and should attack the Vikings in the deep middle and with TE Todd Heap to create more running room. Quit taking stupid penalties.

The Minnesota game plan will include going after pedestrian secondary outside of Ed Reed. The Vikings receivers were considered ordinary until No.4 put on purple jersey. Make Baltimore defend the pass. If Cedric Benson can end the Ravens streak of 40 times not allowing a 100-yard rusher, A.P. should be able to make it 2-0 going the other direction. Peterson will have to maintain ball security, with Baltimore constantly tugging. The Vikes have the top red zone defense (four TDs in 13 possessions inside the 20) in the league, kicker Matt Stover doesn’t figure to beat them booting field goals. Minny is 22-12-1 ATS at home off a win and cover.

3DW Line – Minnesota by 4
Bookmaker.com Line – Minnesota -3, 46

Houston at Cincinnati 1:00E CBS

The Cincinnati Bengals (4-1) are in rarefied air after five weeks, having won four straight games and leading the AFC North division. They are also 3-2 ATS in ’09, but 0-2 ATS as favorites, extending their recent mark in the chalk role to 3-10 ATS. Head coach Marvin Lewis opened as a 6.5-point point favorite in this one vs. Houston, with the line drifting downward. The Texans fell to 2-3 SU&ATS after losing at Arizona and are already three games back to Indy in the AFC South and come in to this one on a surge of 9-2 ATS on the road off another road game. Houston has covered four of its last six away overall. Cincinnati may be starting to regain a bit of home field advantage and comes in as winners of five of seven ATS as host. These clubs met a year ago in Houston, with HC Gary Kubiak’s team securing an easy 35-6 win as nine point favorites.

Keys to the Game-

The Houston running game stinks at 75.4 yards per game (30th). As proven last week, the Texans can move the ball passing, lighting up Arizona in the second half, however that is part of the problem, it’s very difficult to throw the ball consistently for 60 minutes a game, you need a semblance of balance to be thought of as playoff material. The defensive front has contained two mediocre rushing teams (89 total yards) the last two weeks, do the same against Cincinnati and Houston could move to 14-5 ATS as visiting underdog off road contest. QB Matt Shaub has to have complete game and the “Where’s Waldo” pass rush needs to reappear.

Cincinnati has gotten a lot of mileage out of new balanced offense and the longer they keep Houston’s pass offense on the sidelines the better. Test the Texans with Benson and determine how they will react. Do what everyone does, take away Houston running game. Cincy has one definite advantage in doing so, a terrific pass rush to make Shaub hesitant. Oddly, the Bengals are 0-6 ATS versus poor rushing teams averaging 90 or less yards game over the last three seasons. You’ve seen the Ben Stiller movies “Meet the Parents”, that sums up the Cincinnati snapper, holder and kicker on extra points and field goals.

3DW Line – Cincinnati by 2.5
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Cincinnati -5.5, 46.6

Arizona at Seattle 4:05E FOX

Seattle (2-3 ATS) hopes to head into its bye week at 3-3, but to do so, needs to come up with a second straight big effort at home. This week’s foe is rival Arizona (2-2 ATS), who snapped a five-game losing streak at Seattle in its Super Bowl season of 2008. The Seahawks are off the 41-0 win over Jacksonville, and looking to extend a winning streak of eight straight games (6-2 ATS) in pre-bye week games. They are on a 4-1-1 ATS run at home overall. For Arizona, now 2-2 after turning back Houston, this is the first divisional road game of 2009 and they were 3-0 SU & ATS in that spot last season. Overall, the Cardinals have covered six of previous eight road games. Favorites are 6-2 SU & ATS in the last eight battles of this NFC West rivalry, while eight of 10 meetings have gone OVER the total.

Keys to the Game –

If you or someone you know has a bad back, it just doesn’t go away, especially if you are being knocked around. If Arizona wants to be tied for NFC West lead at the end of the day, they must sack Matt Hasselbeck, something they’ve failed to do the last two contests. Both Cardinals wins are not a coincidence, protect Kurt Warner and the offense hums. Coach Ken Whisenhunt prefers to portray himself as tough guy. He better start living up to image and find a running that would setup play-action passing game, since Larry Fitzgerald’s longest catch is 26 yards. Open running lanes and Zona moves to 5-0 ATS as underdog.

Seattle is a better team with Hasselbeck. Like Warner, the veteran quarterback can pick apart secondaries and the Cardinals surrender a NFL-high 303 yards per game via the pass. Give Hasselbeck time, watch the results. The Arizona run defense is allowing only 2.9 yards per carry, nonetheless the Seahawks must keep trying and bounce a few runs outside the tackles with Julius Jones speed. The best way for Seattle to move to 11-2 ATS as home favorites is to do what they did last week, sack the quarterback five times.

3DW Line - Seattle by 4.5
Bookmaker.com Line – Seattle -3, 46.5

Tennessee at New England 4:15E CBS

Tennessee and New England were expected to be among the top contenders for the AFC title in 2009. Neither has lived up to billing. The Titans have been perhaps the NFL’s biggest disappointment, with 0-5 record (1-4 ATS) and on death’s door after the ugly 31-9 loss to Indy on Sunday night. They would love to head into their bye week with more positive momentum generated from an upset of New England (2-3 ATS). Tennessee has won six of its last seven pre-bye week games, both SU & ATS, but has only gone 4-13 ATS vs. teams gaining over 375 yards per game on offense. New England dropped to 3-2 with its loss at Denver, but comes into this one with a 23-7 ATS record off a loss under Bill Belichick the last several years. The Patriots recently won back-to-back homes games SU & ATS after going 3-10 ATS in their previous 13.

Keys to the Game-

This contest was chosen by default and Tennessee has plenty of blame to go around. Kerry Collins has thrown as many interceptions this season (7) as of all of 2008. With no pass rush to speak of, the defensive have made more mistakes than the Bank of America and injuries have exacerbated the situation. The running game is starting to look like the Detroit Lions when Barry Sanders was there, the occasional burst from Chris Johnson, with truckload of negative plays. The Titans are 0-5 ATS off a SU failure and have gone from the leadership of Cronus, to being banished to Tartarus.

This looks to easy, but when a team is down, step on their throat from the start. The Tennessee secondary has more communication problems than Sprint and Tom Brady and his teammates should attack them with abandon. No reason Wes Welker shouldn’t drive them crazy and Randy Moss exploit the Titans deep. If the Patriots jump out to big lead, this is a good time to start finding a ground game for the rest of the season. New England is 21-8-1 ATS in October and the defense needs to move the line of scrimmage backwards after permitting 424 yards, the most in 18 games.

3DW Line – New England by 14.5
DiammondSportsbook.com Line – New England -9, 40

Steve Makinen of StatFox contributed to this article.