AUGUST’s GOOD and BAD BASEBALL PITCHERS

By Marc Lawrence of PlayBook.com

With the MLB trade deadline at hand and the NFL pre-season whetting our pigskin appetite, the month of August sets the table for the stretch run of the baseball season. Which pitchers can we count on to satisfy our tastes, and which ones figure to turn our stomach? Take a look below.

Listed below are hurlers that have enjoyed a two-to-one or better success ratio in team starts the last three seasons during the month of August. On the flip side, we’ve also listed pitchers that struggle in August team starts, winning 33% percent or less of their efforts. To qualify pitchers must have made a minimum of 10 starts, with at least one start each August over the last three years. I’ll be back next month with September’s Good Month Pitchers. Until then, enjoy…

GOOD MONTH PITCHERS

Baker, Scott *12-6
The Minnesota starting pitching has been mediocre for a large part of the season and Scott Baker has been part of the problem, with ERA hovering around 5. This would be the right time for the right-hander to pitch up to expectations with the Twins looking for another AL Central crown.

Bush, Dave * 8-3
Milwaukee’s Dave Bush begins this month with below average career record of 53-64, however he has flourished in the dog days of summer. With fastball topping out at 90 MPH, he has to have his variety of breaking stuff working to be effective, which it is usually this month.

Hernandez, Felix * 13-5
Last season Hernandez was 19-5, with WHIP of 1.114 and hitters batting .227 against him. This year his WHIP to start this month is exactly the same, opponents are hitting ever so slightly better at .232, yet with an inferior team, he is 7-8. With run support, King Felix could have typical August.

Kazmir, Scott * 12-5
On the DL, expected to have rehab assignment the middle of August and could return if all goes well.

Lincecum, Tim * 12-6
Being a two-time Cy Young winner, there are not many bad months. Though still extremely effective, the ERA is up over three this season, with strikeouts down and opponents batting average up to .240 (compared to .221 career). Let’s see if Lincecum pitches to usual high standards with San Francisco back in pennant race.

Oswalt, Roy *13-3
Always a strong closer at the end of the year, Oswalt got the energy boost he needed being traded to the Philadelphia Phillies.

Pettitte, Andy *13-5
On the DL since July 19, Pettitte has been soft-tossing without discomfort and could well be back before projected 4-5 weeks initial outlook to continue August dominance.

Pineiro, Joel * 12-2
In the midst of solid 10-7 season and career innings pitched, the Angels right-hander is out six to eight weeks with oblique strain.

Sabathia, C.C. * 14-4
The big left-hander is 8-1 with 2.10 ERA in his last 10 starts, proving he is primed for another awesome August.

Santana, Ervin * 10-4
Always a quality No. 3 starter, Santana has often been an important cog in the Angels winning AL West titles. While this might not occur in 2010, this Dominican dandy is poised for another sharp month.

Shields, James *12-6
If Tampa Bay is to catch the Yankees, getting better pitching from James Shields would make a difference. His 9-9 record with 4.79 ERA is far cry from 2007-08 when he was 26-16, with ERA a full run lower. Time for Shields to find a way to avoid bats.

Wainwright, Adam *10-3
The Cardinals have a pair of aces with Chris Carpenter and Wainwright and the Georgia native could be on to 20-win campaign if he has usual stellar August. Opposing teams are batting a career low .219 against him.

Wolf, Randy * 10-3
The lefty has found the difference between Miller Park and Dodger Stadium to be severe this season. Two areas demonstrate the difference for Wolf this year compared to last. In 2009, opponents hit .227 against Wolf, presently they are at .269. His strikeout totals this season are more reflective of his poorer career years with 87 to begin August, compared to 160 last season. Will Wolf turn it around?

BAD MONTH PITCHERS:

Duke, Zach * 2-8
When opponents are batting over .300 against a starting pitcher for his career, the front office should look in the mirror and question themselves.

Guthrie, Mark * 5-13
His ERA is up nearly a run in last 10 starts, explaining 1-6 record. When Guthrie struggles, it’s because the fastball comes to the plate like it is on a string and breaking stuff lacks bite to keep hitters off balance. Pitching for Orioles doesn’t help.

Hernandez, Livan * 4-11
His ERA is creeping up, yet still highly respectable 3.22. For most of his later career, Hernandez has tended to wear down as the year progressed, making him play against pitcher as part of his M.O.

Olsen, Scott * 2-9
Has made one start since being placed on the DL in May and difficult to determine how the left-hander might do for Washington with only 20 total appearances the last two years.

Owings, Micah * 3-8
Optioned to Triple-A Louisville by Cincinnati on July 28.

Robertson, Nate * 3-8
Released by Florida on July 27.


Doug Upstone of 3dailywinners.net contributed to this article.

MLB Series Wagering- Rays at Yankees

The two best teams in baseball square off in the Bronx to begin their second half of the season. Tampa Bay (54-34, +2.7 units) trails New York (56-32, +7.4) by two games and would like to close the gap even further with a series triumph. The Rays have played with the off-kilter intensity of Mel Gibson, not in the present form, but like his character in “Mad Max –Road Warrior”. Tampa Bay has far and away the best road record in baseball at 28-14 (+12) and they are flat out fantastic in the division with 12-2 mark, which includes a pair of wins May 19-20 at Yankees Stadium.

For New York fans and many of the players, this series starts with a melancholy feel, as legendary public address announcer Bob Sheppard and “The Boss” George Steinbrenner, both passed away this past week. “I think he’s a father figure to everyone that was in our organization in the past or present, because he really took care of his players,” Jeter said. “You know, whether it was a player that’s on the team now or someone that played for a week 30 years ago.

The Yankees will wear patches on their uniforms for the remainder of the season to honor Steinbrenner and Sheppard.

New York returns home like they are just out of the microwave, winners of eight of last nine. Among the hottest Yankees is pitcher C.C. Sabathia (12-3, 3.09 ERA), whose been delivering as consistently as UPS. Sabathia is 8-0 since June began with miniscule 1.81 ERA. In fact, in his last 38 2/3 innings, the big lefthander has permitted four earned runs. The Bronx Bombers are -175 money line favorites at online sports betting outlets and no wonder with the big man 15-0 vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. (Team's Record)

After scuffling for awhile, the Rays are back online, also winners of eight of last nine outings. Tampa Bay deserves notice for 12-1 record vs. an AL starting pitcher with ERA of 3.20 or better this season, nonetheless, James Shields (7-9, 4.87) is curious choice as starting pitcher for series opener. Shields is 1-8 with a 7.00 ERA in his last nine outings and 2-7 with 5.54 ERA in 11 career starts against the Yankees.

“I’m happy that we’re playing them right out of the gates,” Shields told MLB.com. “We’re right behind them right now and it’s a good chance for us to pick up a couple of games on them.” With those words in mind, you can’t help of thinking of Ace Ventura saying “All righty than”.

Game 1 Edge: New York

The team in pinstripes has the third best home record in baseball starting this series at 28-13. For those seeking sports betting tips, New York is playing 40 of final 74 games at home, which will give them definite edge along with inflated money and run lines. A.J. Burnett (7-7, 4.75) will again pitch on this FOX Saturday afternoon affair. Two weeks ago Saturday, he was dreadful at Los Angeles, lasting just three innings and permitting six runs. That concluded a stretch of five June starts with an ERA over 11 and the Yankees coaches deducted Burnett needed to start using his change-up more and this has brought immediate results, allowing two total runs in last two starts covering 13 2/3 innings. The Yanks are 43-18 in Game 2’s, but have won just one of Burnett’s previous six starts.

Jeff Niemann (7-2, 2.77) has arguably been manager Joe Maddon’s most dependable starter all season, particularly on the road. Niemann is 4-0 (the Rays are 8-0 in 2010 when he starts) in visiting uniform and Tampa Bay is inconceivable 17-2 in the second game of a series when the 6’9 right-handed toes the rubber. The Rays best bet to win is grab the lead before the eighth inning since New York is 4-26 when trailing after seven frames and 48-4 when leading.
Game 2 Edge: Tampa Bay

The series finale matches a pair of lefties, one representing the past and present, with the other already an All-Star with unlimited future. Andy Pettitte (11-2, 2.70) is 38 years old and is getting better with age, being an All-Star again this season. Pettitte is extremely knowledgeable hurler, quickly figuring out what pitches are working from his repertoire and keeping hitters off-balance. Pettitte and teammates are 12-3 as favorites this year and 22-10 in day games. Skipper Maddon would be wise to load lineup with right-hand sticks as opposing LH hitters are batting .167 vs. Pettitte’s tosses.

The Rays counter with All-Star starter David Price (12-4. 2.42) who is fulfilling the promise as Tampa Bay’s top pick of the 2007 June draft. The 24-year old has all the pitches, including a tight slider and improving change-up. He and the Rays are 6-0 in the division and 6-1 in the day time.

Game 3 Edge: New York

This should be a highly competitive series given how each team has played. Tampa Bay has 3-2 lead this season and somewhat surprisingly, the last six meetings have gone Over the total for those betting on sports. Both clubs are exceptional in their roles of home and away, yet the visiting team has taken five of past six. Despite this, it’s very difficult to bet against the Yankees at home, thus will be betting them for this weekend.

Sportsbook series odds: Tampa Bay +170, New York -220

3Daily Winners Pick: New York

June’s Best and Worst MLB Pitchers

If it’s June, school is out. And so too will be the NBA (we think). It’s also the time of the season when MLB pitchers look to ace exams in hopes of keeping their teams in the pennant chase. To get a better feel on what to expect, Marc Lawrence of Playbook.com examines their results from exams in the past.

Listed below are hurlers that have enjoyed a two-to-one or better success ratio in team starts the last three seasons during the month of June. On the flip side, we’ve also listed pitchers that struggle in June team starts, winning 33% percent or less of their efforts. To qualify pitchers must have made a minimum of 10 starts, with at least one start each June over the last three years. I’ll be back next month with July’s Good Month Pitchers. Until then, enjoy…

GOOD MONTH PITCHERS:

Floyd, Gavin • 10-2
The White Sox are hoping for quick reversal for what has been disappointing season for right-hander at 2-5 and unseemly 6.02 ERA. His manager has been riding him about his lack of mental toughness this season.

Haren, Dan • 13-4
After showing great consistency in Arizona uniform, Haren has been like his D-Backs teammates with 5-4 record and 5.35 ERA. Though his strikeout to walk ratio is still among the best in the big leagues, he grooved far too many pitches in permitting 16 home runs.

Hernandez, Felix • 12-2
It’s time for the “King” to start pitching like one. Hernandez hasn’t won a game since April (neither has Seattle in his starts), saddled with lack of run support and his occasional poor pitching. Time for Felix to elevate his game.

Kazmir, Scott • 8-4
The Angels lefty is becoming known for giving up big innings, explaining 3-5 record and 6.34 ERA. Amazingly, he’s been deplorable against left-hand hitters who are batting incomprehensible .500 against him starting June, compared to .238 vs. RH swingers.

Lackey, John • 11-4
The tall Texan has been a mild disappointment in Boston with 4.84 ERA to go with his 5-3 record. Lackey doesn’t have the over-powering hard stuff any longer and has to get by on guile, throwing in a smaller ballpark.

Nolasco, Ricky • 8-2
The sturdy Nolasco (4-4) still is throwing strikes, but having trouble hitting his spots deep in the count. He only totaled 15 K’s in May after having 29 punch-outs in same number of starts (5) in April. If he gets the feel of fastball or slider back, he should have another outstanding June.

Pettitte, Andy • 11-5
The 37-year port-sider might be having his best season yet in his career with 7-1 mark and 2.48 ERA. What’s fun to watch about Pettitte these days is where the catcher puts the glove that is where he throws the ball, which helps him get the benefit of the doubt from umpires.

Wakefield, Tim • 11-5
Being used as spot starter to fill in for injured Boston pitchers.

Zambrano, Carlos • 14-3
Believed to be rejoining the starting rotation this month, the Cubs could use a typical June from Big Z.

BAD MONTH PITCHERS:

Arroyo, Bronson • 4-13
The Reds starter should have the last name of yo-yo, since that is how he tends to pitch. Obviously this month falls in the “down” category.

Blanton, Joe • 5-12
Blanton has been unimpressive since coming off the disabled list with 1-4 record and 5.68 ERA. Pitches are up in the zone and being ripped.

Garland, Jon • 5-11
The much-traveled hurler has found a home at spacious Petco Park and is 6-2 with sharp 2.55 ERA this season. At home in San Diego, Garland is Ubaldo-like with miniscule 1.15 ERA. Can he keep it going?

Hernandez, Livan • 6-12
Washington has gotten far more than they could have ever expected from Hernandez, who is 4-2 with superb 2.15 ERA. In the last few years, he’s gotten off to starts somewhat similar, but by the third month of the season, the bite of his pitches starts to lose effectiveness and the spots he was wearing out are not as consistent, leading to more hits, runs and defeats piling up.

Hudson, Tim • 4-8
Hudson is healthier than he’s been in years (5-1, 2.24), which might be the greatest factor in how he performs this month.

Doug Upstone contributed to this article.

Red Sox in "must" win over New York

The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox are two polarizing teams to the general public. A lot of baseball fans complain these teams are on TV all the time and the networks refute the argument by showing the number of eyeballs watching baseball are up significantly when these two rivals are on the flat screen, especially when they face one another.

I have no allegiance to either team, since both are overpriced from betting perspective. Yet today is perfect example why people outside the East Coast quickly tire hearing about these two teams.

Early this morning I opened my computer and on MSN, I read this screaming headline - Yankees bullpen still an enigma.

I thought about that for nanosecond and realized what struck me, the word “still”. Would that be the “still” from last year when Joe Girardi expertly put together a combination of pitchers in the second half of the season that went on to win the World Series for the 27th time for the Yankees or the “still” where this 2010 contingent stood after TWO games with 160 more yet to be played.

I’m quite sure Jon Paul Morosi, the national MLB writer for FOXSports.com is a very good baseball writer with deep insights into the game and a big part of his job is to write articles that will bring thousands of readers so Fox can charge higher rates for advertising, but my god to have diatribe about why New York is having eighth inning issues, when the paint is still wet on a new season border is ridiculous.

When hordes of reporters follow these teams around on a daily basis and the national press is in town, everybody has to have an angle.

Trying to jump into the spirit of the moment, I made up my own headline to be attention grabber for tonight’s televised conflict on ESPN2.

Let’s skip the drama and get to the action OK?

John Lackey makes first start as a Boston pitcher with altered bank account. I’ve thought Lackey has been overrated for the last few years, with the Angels always selling this bulldog image of him, but all I see is 5-8 record with 4.43 ERA against the pinstripes (flat gray for tonight), not exactly legendary. Ruff, ruff or whatever bulldogs do.

Lackey will face Andy Pettitte, who is second among active Major League pitchers with 229 wins and is 19-9 with 4.05 ERA against the BoSox since 1997.

I checked with DiamondSportsbook.com and found Boston as -140 favorites and the total is Under 10, after opening at Over 10. Going thru the StatFox Foxsheets found where Pettitte and the Yankees are 10-0 Under in April the last couple of years. The Yanks have won last seven games after scoring five or more runs and the left-hander is on the mound.

I also found where Boston is 44-13 at Fenway when the total is 10 or higher and 20-8-1 Over when a -150 favorite or less.

Paul Schrieber is the home plate umpire and is it coincidence New York is 8-2 when he’s behind the dish?

Here’s my advice, enjoy the game, I hope you have the right side or total and don’t make a bigger deal about than what it is. For real importance get back to me when they meet the first weekend in August.

Written by freelance writer Red Wydley.

World Series Game 6 Questions and Answers

Tonight either the New York Yankees win a 27th World Series or are pushed to a deciding Game 7. The beauty of a series is it evolves and takes on a life of its own, which is particularly true in baseball since every game involves two new starting pitchers that alter the dynamics from game to game. For the baseball bettor that means breaking the contest down into components in order to pick the right side or total. Here are Game 6’s most pressing questions.

Can Andy Pettitte pitch effectively on three days’ rest?

This is the leading mystery coming into this confrontation and even Pettitte admits he has no idea how his arm will react. When asked what it’s like to throw on short rest, Pettitte responded, “Man, I don't even remember the last time I went on three days' rest,"

In fact, it was September 30, 2006, when still a member of the Houston Astros. The left-hander is not an excitable type and will likely focus his attention on breaking pitches and off-speed stuff if the fastball isn’t up to typical standards. Pettitte is 4-6 with a 4.15 ERA in 14 career starts on three days' rest. With more adrenaline pumping in the playoffs, he is 3-1 with a 2.88 ERA on short rest. Sportsbook.com has New York as -200 money line favorites. With Pettitte on the mound, his record is 36-8 as a home favorite of -175 to -200 since 1997. (Team's Record)

Manager Joe Girardi better hope this works tonight, otherwise he will be facing the critics before tomorrow’s Game 7 with Burnett and Pettitte both failing in using this pitching strategy.

What’s that cool breeze?

Every year different player’s end up having struggles in the playoffs or World Series and right now two guys are in the heart of each team’s lineup. Mark Teixeira is batting below .200 in the Fall Classic and has been fanned 16 times since postseason action commenced. His body language suggests he’s pressing, swinging harder after each strike. New York could use his normally potent bat to wrap up this series, since he contributed to Yankees 60-23 record as a home favorite of -110 or higher this season.

Ryan Howard’s timing couldn’t be more off. His swing mechanics are a mess and he’s tied the World Series record for strikeouts with 13, with at least one more game to go. What makes hitting so intriguing is Howard could come up in the first inning and hit a soft liner the other way, just over Derek Jeter’s head and suddenly start sending rockets all around Yankee Stadium. Given Philadelphia is such a large underdog; his big bat could take the Phillies to 12-3 in road games after three or more consecutive home games this season.

How does manager Charley Manuel use Pedro Martinez?

Give Martinez credit, in two playoff starts he’s allowed three runs in 13 innings, striking out 11 and walking just two. Though the radar gun seldom sees 90 anymore, Pedro still struts around the mound like a peacock, acting like he owns the place. Look for Yankees hitters to be more patient this time and not be as inclined to swing at off-speed pitches out of the strike zone. It would be in Manuel’s best interest to start getting a pitcher ready once Martinez goes thru the batting order once, since he doesn’t have enough heat to keep New York batters honest and not sitting on off-speed tosses.

How cool is it right now to be Alex Rodriguez or Chase Utley?

For both these hitters, they are as ESPN’s Stewart Scott would say, “cool as the other side of the pillow”. They are working pitchers until they make the slightest mistake and rocketing shots like they are seeing batting practice speed beach balls. Each is capable of winning a game single-handily with the way they are swinging. Will Utley raise the Phillies playoff record to 21-8 the last two years and force a Game 7 or does A-Rod drop an “A-Bomb” (Yankees radio announcer John Sterling call) and New York is champion yet again and finishes the year 39-11 as a favorite of -175 to -250 this season.

What was learned from Game 5 that could determine winner for tonight?

The most important factor for the sports bettor is the OVER could well hit a fourth straight game. The first two contests of the World Series saw rested starting pitchers going deep in games, for a pair of Under’s. Since then, the two most power-laden team in the big leagues have hit homers in smallish parks against relief pitchers who have resembled an interleague matchup of the Orioles and Nationals.

If you take Mariano Rivera out of the equation, if either team trails buy almost any margin, they have to feel they can comeback against two bullpens short on getting outs quickly.

L.A. teams in strife on Monday

While the state of California battles with budget cuts and other issues mostly due to the recession, both Los Angeles baseball squads have built a deficit and have to win today or the field for the World Series is virtually set. The Angels will go first, playing at home and they can look at five errors and lack of clutch hitting as the culprit for their 0-2 predicament. The Dodgers should be down 3-0 except for a Phillies bullpen failure and Chase Utley being wilder to first base on double play turn than Ricky Vaughn before glasses.

The Angels are batting .154 as a team and were 3 for 15 with runners in scoring position in Game 2. The Halos bullpen failures arose again when supposed closer Brian Fuentes served up a belt high 0-2 pitch that got WAY too much of the plate that Alex Rodriguez drilled to right-center bleachers for tying run in the bottom of the 11th. Maybe it was wearing baseball hats with ear flaps, but a normally sound Angels’ defense was making both mental and physical errors in the field reminiscent of a grade school team, literally costing them at least one game.

Jered Weaver has the assignment of attempting to bring the Angels back in the series. The lanky right-hander is 9-3 with 2.90 ERA at the Big A, for a club that is 21-7 after batting .225 or worse over a five game span. He’ll be up against veteran Andy Pettitte, who was far more effective on the road with 9-4 record and 3.56 ERA. In the last dozen years, the left-hander is 8-9 against the Halos and the Yankees are 50-21 after two or more consecutive wins this season.

DiamondSportsbook.com has the Anaheim-based club as -130 money line favorites with total of 8.5. The Halos are 14-2 after a game where their bullpen blew a save this season and 38-18 against lefties. This Los Angeles squad is 11-4 at home versus New York and truly are in must win scenario on FOX at 4:13 Eastern today.

The other Los Angeles team has at least won a game in their league championship series, however has looked anemic. The Dodgers offense has not been especially effective since the middle of August and this problem has manifested itself at the most inopportune time. The Dodgers have scored more than five runs just once in last 13 games (8-6 loss in Game 1) and were completely stifled last night in 11-0 rocking chair win for Philadelphia.

Teams that are victorious in the postseason execute and the Dodgers are 9 for 48 with runners in scoring position six games into the playoffs. The 1927 Yankees might not have done much success with Cliff Lee Sunday night, but that doesn’t explain why they were held scoreless by Pedro Martinez in Game 2. The Dodgers are 3-11 after allowing 10 runs or more and hope starter Randy Wolf can give them an argosy of compelling innings in Game 4. Wolf and the Dodgers are 12-4 against teams with winning records this season and he has 2.90 ERA on the road.

Manager Joe Torre hopes a pressing Matt Kemp (.192 BA and 12 K’s in 26 at bats in the playoffs) will find his batting eye against Joe Blanton. Kemp doesn’t sound particularly encouraged he will turn things around. "I'm not hitting the ball that well," Kemp said. "I'm just going out there playing hard, and when I get hits, I get hits."

The Phillies are now 16-5 in the postseason the last two years and are -120 money line favorites with total Un8.5. Philadelphia is 44-25 when the money line is +125 to -125 this season and Blanton is 15-5 against teams with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last two years. (Team's Record)

The Dodgers have to start hitting and hope the Phillies are worn out after yesterday’s offensive display (Phils 12-18 at home after six or more extra base hits). TBS picks up Game 4 at 8:07 Eastern.

Rangers trying to buck the system in Bronx

There had been a great deal of speculation the Texas Rangers were perfectly positioned to steal a game from the New York Yankees in the opener on forums and chat sites catering to sports wagering talk on Tuesday. The belief was from underdog and value players, the Yankees would be flat after a big series win in Boston and Joba Chamberlain had not been very effective of late, making Texas a delicious choice at +185 on the money line.

New York (78-47, +5.6 units) looked anything but flat taking a 4-0 lead in the bottom of the first inning. This Texas (70-54, +19.4 units) team is a little different from the past, not wilting under the heat and humidity the Lone Star State brings this time of year and they kept battling, earning a 10-5 lead and almost gave it away, with New York scoring four runs in the bottom of the ninth, to come up just short at 10-9.

High scoring games are nothing new at the new Yankees Stadium, where the average score totals 10.3 runs per game. The Rangers will attempt to win the series tonight on ESPN2 at 7:05 Eastern and possibly further close the gap in the AL West with Los Angeles with another victory.
Texas will have New York’s full attention, as the Yankees lost for just the 19th time in 60 games (best in baseball) in the Bronx this season. The Rangers will be in virtually the same exact position as last night, being +185 underdogs according to DiamondSportsbook.com.

Texas is feeling spry after defeating the Yanks and will send 22-year-old left-hander Derek Holland (7-7, 4.72 ERA) to the mound. The rookie will face an intimidating New York lineup that punishes left-hand pitchers, sporting a 28-14 record and he’s been rocked for eight runs in 6 1/3 innings against the Bronx Bombers this season. Holland has found a groove in last three starts, with 3-0 record and 1.29 ERA; expect the Yankees to test him.

Andy Pettitte (10-6, 4.25) will take the ball for Joe Girardi’s club, seeking a third straight win. Pettitte and his teammates will go after a fifth consecutive triumph when he’s been the starter. Though the veteran left-hander did not have his best stuff last Friday against Boston in wild 20-11 win (seven runs allowed in five innings), prior to that he had 2.61 ERA in last five starts.
By all appearances Texas should have another shot as big underdog, until this sobering system is unveiled.

Play Against road underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 after allowing nine runs or more against opponent after a combined score of 15 runs or more.

This system is a proven winner and consistent. Since 1997, the record is 184-48, 79.3 percent and over the last five years has been equally as steady with 64-17 (79 percent) mark. What makes this system work is teams involved in high scoring affairs and positioned as large underdogs typically don’t respond well in next contest and this is acknowledged with teams like Texas losing by 2.5 runs per game.

Can Texas win tonight, sure, is it a good idea to place a wager on them, after reading to this point, you decide.

MLB Series Wagering - Yankees at Red Sox

With two World Series championship rings in the past five years, the Boston Red Sox don’t play baseball games hoping to make the postseason; they play for division titles and settle for the wild card if that is last option. With roughly a quarter of the season to be played, Boston knows this is their best chance to close the six game differential in the loss column with New York, with just three games remaining between these two rivals. "There's [42 games] of our season left," Red Sox catcher Jason Varitek said. "We have too many good characters on this team. We won't quit."

Boston (69-51, +3.3 units) feels they are gathering momentum, having won seven of last 10, including sweeping Toronto on the road. The Red Sox return home where they are 38-18 and could tie the Yankees for the best home record in baseball with a sweep. Terry Francona’s club is third in baseball in runs scored on home turf at 5.7 per contest and hopes to improve on that figure tonight. Besides all the obvious aspects that are in front of the BoSox, being bludgeoned 25-8 at Yankees Stadium two weeks ago in a four-game sweep adds incentive.

How good have the Yankees (76-45, +6.9 units) been since the All-Star break? The Bronx Bombers are 25-8 and have won nine of 10 series, including the last five in a row. "The one thing that I've been really proud about [with] this club is that there's a sense of urgency every night," Yankees manager Joe Girardi said. "This club knows how to continue to push, and that's a good feeling.”

In the opener, Brad Penny (7-7, 5.22 ERA) will take the ball and he been awful of late with 0-3 record and a 7.54 ERA over his last four starts. New York will counter with Andy Pettitte (9-6, 4.09), whose been particularly sharp in allowing two or fewer runs in his last four starts. Only a lack of run support has kept him at 1-0 mark in these assignments. DiamondSportsbook.com has New York as -110 money road favorites, with total Ov10.5. The Yankees are 4-15 on the road when the total is 10 to 10.5, while Boston is 37-10 at home when the total is 10 or higher over the last two seasons.

Game 1 Edge: Boston

As expected, Saturday’s contest will be a Fox Sports afternoon affair and New York will be a decided favorite. The pitching mismatch is the top reason; with A. J. Burnett (10-6, 3.69) facing Junichi Tazawa (1-2, 5.40). The Japanese right-hander came to this country noted for low-90’s fastball, splitter and change, but right-hand hitters are batting .542 in his 11.2 innings of work. The Yanks entered this series without a win in Bean-Town in 2009, nevertheless are 16-2 after six or more consecutive road games this year. Conversely, the Red Sox have really floundered against the better teams and are 4-12 playing against a club with a winning record in the second half of this season.

Game 2 Edge: Yankees

The final contest is night-time conflict on ESPN and should be a beauty. Two big time pitchers will be paired in C.C. Sabathia (14-7, 3.58) versus Josh Beckett (14-4, 3.58). The Yankees came into the weekend with a stellar 50-27 record in night games. The New York front office paid Sabathia a Hudson River barge of money and with crunch time now here, the big lefty is 4-0 this month, with 2.35 ERA and opposing batters hitting a feeble .185 against him. Boston also plays a decent brand of baseball under the lights at 50-34. Beckett has allowed three or fewer runs in 15 of his last 18 starts, with the Red Sox 14-4. He’s been especially effective at Fenway Park with 8-0 mark and the team winning 10 of 11 starts. Beckett and the BoSox are 17-5 as favorites.

Game 3 Edge: Boston

The Yankees are the better team and have the more favorable pitching matchups in two of the three games with the last contest arguably a push. Nonetheless, the Red Sox will want to flush the unsavory taste of being swept in the Bronx and have the confidence of winning seven straight at Fenway over New York. Thus, I’ll make a slightly wavering choice of Boston for this weekend.

DiamondSportsbook.com series odds: N.Y. Yankees -135, Boston +105

3DW Pick: Boston

2009 Record – 7-9 (4 straight wins)

MLB Series Wagering - Mets at Yankees

Neither the Mets nor the Yankees return to the Big Apple in the best of moods after suffering series’ losses in what has amounted to rivalry week for both teams. The Mets lost series to Philadelphia, giving them six losses in last nine contests. The Yankees were swept in Boston and are 0-8 against the Red Sox in 2009.

Though players typically try and down play the significance of these types of interleague games, the fact is this is New York and they can’t help being caught up in the maelstrom with rabid fans and media descending on them. Both scuffling clubs will bring positives into the Subway Series, as the Metropolitans (31-27, -0.3 units) are 23-8 in road games when playing on Friday since 2007 and the Yanks are 15-3 at home after batting .240 or worse over a 10-game span.

Livan Hernandez (5-1, 3.88 ERA) has experienced a career renaissance this season, being picked up late by the Mets who needed a fifth starter. Pitching at Citi Field has helped the well-traveled veteran right-hander; however he’s performed above average on the road with 3-1 and serviceable 4.07 ERA. Hernandez has been downright awesome in his last three starts, with a 1.66 earned run average, which included complete game and seven shutout innings, thou both were against woeful Washington. He’s been moved up one day since John Maine was placed on DL Thursday, yet at least still had four days between starts. Hernandez is 18-10 (+12.1 Units) against the money line in the first half of the season over the last two seasons. (Team's Record)

The Yankees (34-26, -2.8 units) counter with Joba Chamberlain (3-1, 3.39), who will not have to face dangerous hitters like Carlos Delgado or Jose Reyes, who are both disabled. The Bronx Bombers have been anything but, losing five of last eight games and scoring 4.2 runs per game in the process. The Yanks are 18-11 in their new home and part of Chamberlain’s job will be to keep the ball in the yard. Balls have been flying over the fence at Coors Field pace. Chamberlain has been about average (which is good at the new Yankee Stadium), surrendering a total of seven homers in his 11 games pitched. New York and the big right-hander are 7-1 in last eight starts at Yankee Stadium.

DiamondSportsbook.com has the home-standing team in the pinstripes as -220 money line favorites with total Un10.5. The Yankees have the best record in baseball in interleague play at 124-89 (.582) and are 45-17 as a favorite of -201 or greater. Watch the total on this one, since the Mets are 11-1 OVER on the road after three or more consecutive home games and the Yankees are 13-2 OVER at home after a one run loss.

Game 1 Edge: Yankees

The middle encounter will be a Fox Sports afternoon affair. At this time, the presumed fill-in starter for the Mets will be Fernanado Nieve, who pitched two scoreless innings out of the bullpen this season for the Mets after they called him up from Triple-A Buffalo on June 6. Nieve is a hard throwing righty, who has shown proclivity to hit a lot of bats in his major league stints. Most likely, manager Jerry Manual will have to go to bullpen, which has been an issue for the Yankees who are 2-9 vs. an excellent bullpen whose ERA is 3.00 or better this season. Andy Pettitte (6-2, 4.22) will go the Yankees, who’s not found the new ballpark to his liking. More balls fly out to right field and Pettitte’s ERA is 5.40 at home compared to 2.58 on the road. The Yanks are 29-13 when the veteran lefty is a Game 2 starter and they are 8-2 versus their city rival when he takes the hill.

Game 2 Edge: Yankees

Amazingly, this won’t be the Sunday night game, probably because ESPN didn’t want to cut in on NBA Finals action. The series finale expects to be a good pitching matchup with Johan Santana (8-3, 2.39) battling A.J. Burnett (4-3, 4.89). Both pitchers are coming off less than impressive efforts, with Santana tying a career high in allowing four home runs, yet pitched well enough to pick up the win. Burnett was too amped or too strong, walking five and allowing five runs (three earned) in just 2 2/3 innings, in 7-0 loss at Boston. Day games have favored the Yankees who are 13-9 coming into the series, compared to the Mets 8-11 mark.

Game 3 Edge: Mets

Despite having the best record in interleague action, the Yankees are 19-17 against the Mets since 2003. Don’t see this as being deterrent, as Joe Girardi’s club will want to put Boston series behind them. The key game will be the opener and don’t see New York losing. (OK, I’m doing anything to improve my record, make it the Yankees) With the Bombers favored big in the first two contests, backing both and keeping fingers crossed they deliver a series win.

DiamondSportsbook.com series odds: Mets +200, Yankees -260

3DW Pick: Yankees

2009 Record – 2-6

Rangers in bad betting spot

Life has been pretty darn good for manager Ron Washington’s club in 2009. The Los Angeles Angels were everyone’s selection to runaway with the AL West crown, but Texas (30-21, +10.1 units) will have something to say about who is crowned champion this year. They rank fifth in runs scored in baseball and for the most part, their pitching has been decent enough to be in the middle of the road in runs allowed. Texas does have demons and in this battle of two first place teams in the American League, the Rangers are being lassoed by better team.

Texas has frequently had issues with the New York Yankees, dating back to 1998-99, when they lost consecutive postseason series to them. This year, the Bronx Bombers have won three of four and the losses by the Rangers have not been close. Texas has lost by 10, 7 and 9 runs, with the last figure coming last night. After Vincente Padilla was slapped around for seven runs in less than four innings of work, the bullpen came in and made matters worse with New York adding five more runs the rest of the way.

In contrast, two New York relievers pitched two innings and allowed no runs. Though the Yankees bullpen still have troublesome ERA of 5.03, this is far better than the one that was well over six before they helped contribute to skipper Joe Girardi’s club winning 16 of last 20.

New York (31-21, +1.5) is 21-3 in home games with a hot bullpen whose WHIP is under 1.000 the last five games and Andy Pettitte (5-1, 4.10 ERA, 1.461 WHIP) will try to continue to ease the strain on pen. The veteran left-hander has won last three decisions and the team has won the last five times Pettitte was the starter. DiamondSportsbook.com has the Yankees as -170 money line favorites with the total Ov10.5 and they will face a good pitcher in Scott Feldman (4-0, 3.91, 1.180), who is 4-0 with a 2.59 ERA in seven starts after being used out of the bullpen for the first two weeks of the season.

Unfortunately for Feldman and Texas, the odds may be stacked against them with this super situation.

Play Against all underdogs with a money line of +150 or more, after a game where the bullpen was rocked for five or more earned runs, against opponent with a hot bullpen who’s WHIP is under 1.200 the last 10 games.

The logic here is if a team is this large an underdog, they will likely have to go back to the bullpen again, which was just roughed up. Contrast that with the favorite, who has received a number of fine performances of late and we come across a system that delivers winners at the rate of 84.1 percent since 2004 at 58-11.

While there is no truth to the rumor General Motors, in an effort to conserve money wanted to use the new Yankee Stadium for wind-tunnel testing, at least one home run has been hit in all 24 games played there. Most have been hit to right field, but with the lefty Pettitte on the mound, that should curtail unsightly element.

The average margin of victory has been 2.5 runs and this system has been on turbo-charge, winning 30 of last 33. With New York 12-2 vs. a mediocre bullpen whose WHIP is 1.450 to 1.550 this season, this might be the right spot to go against the Rangers.

MLB Series Wagering- Yankees at Red Sox

Just the words -Yankees and Red Sox- bring a strong passion for every baseball fan. Oh sure, we all know ESPN and Fox are biased towards covering these teams, but why shouldn’t they be. In today’s world of fighting for every position and yielding no quarter, New York and Boston are like Coke and Pepsi competing for your attention. Think about it, what rivalry in sports is acted out in the national media 12 months a year? They compete strenuously during the regular season and on occasion in the playoffs. After one has potentially gained the slightest edge on the other, they compete for free agents and try to make newsworthy splash in trade to out-do one another. These two teams and organizations exemplify the very word, competition.

What also makes this rivalry great is how the teams approach each series. This weekend starts the first of 18 meetings between these AL East combatants and even though the score isn’t always close, a compelling tale emerges from each contest. Over the last seven regular seasons, New York leads 68-63 overall. The widest margin has been 11-8 in any given year, with 10-9 occurring three times and one split. Of course New York fans will tell anybody that will listen; their team has won five of last seven series.

All the players also know it’s just not another series and guys like Mark Teixeira will feel the wrath of Boston fans, after shunning Boston’s advances, to wear the pinstripes. Both teams start the weekend tied for second place in the division behind Toronto. The Red Sox are the hotter team having won seven in a row and they are 43-15 (+20.8 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams allowing 5.2 or more runs a game like New York who is sorting out bullpen and a few spots in the starting rotation. They will have Jon Lester (1-2, 5.50 ERA) take the ball first. The left-hander fired seven shutout innings in last outing after a pair of shaky performances to start the year. Boston is a -135 money line favorite at most sportsbooks, with total Un9.5. Lester and BoSox are 21-4 at Fenway Park the last three seasons.

Joba Chamberlain (0-0, 5.06 ERA) has a pair of no-decisions, pitching well against Kansas City and was wild against Cleveland. Chamberlain has similar stuff to Lester, with mid-90s fastball and sharp slider and the Yanks are 9-4 when he starts for them.

Game 1 Edge: Red Sox

The second meeting will be a Fox afternoon affair, with a couple of old Florida teammates from 2003 World Series champion doing battle. The Yankees coming into the series had won three in a row and five of seven and trot out one of their high-priced acquisitions, A.J. Burnett (2-0, 3.20). After two crisp outings, Burnett was wild against Cleveland walking seven, however permitted just three runs in 6 1/3 innings. The right-hander hopes to benefit from Robinson Cano’s hot bat, which included 10-game hitting streak arriving in Bean-town. Burnett has enjoyed much success against Boston with 5-0 record and 2.56 ERA in eight career starts. Josh Beckett’s (2-1, 3.79) suspension moved him back one game. The Texas native has kept the ball in the yard, not allowing a home run and opponents are batting just .229 against his servings and he is 7-4 with a 5.33 ERA versus the Bronx Bombers. Both teams have performed well in Game 2 situations with New York 20-8 and Boston 17-8 when Beckett is starter.

Game 2 Edge: Yankees

To complete the series, it’s something old and something new, as 37-year old Andy Pettitte (2-0, 2.53) faces 24-year Juston Masterson (1-0, 3.18). Pettitte has not only given the Yankees wins, but saved the bullpen in his three starts, going at least seven innings each time in 2009. The cagy lefty has spotted his two-seam fastball expertly and his cutter has been almost un-hittable. After starting in the bullpen, the 6’6 Masterson made adjustment to starter Monday, picking up first win with 5 1/3 effective innings. He’s been very sharp with control, ringing up 10 strikeouts and three walks. In his brief career, opposing batters are hitting measly .221 against Masterson, while Pettitte is 6-2 in 13 career starts at Fenway.

Game 3 Edge: Yankees

These rivals have split last 18 contests the last two years in Boston with OVER 12-6. If the games continue to be played Over the total, this should favor Boston who has 2.49 bullpen ERA, compared to New York’s unsightly 6.00. Yet, this is still the Yankees and Red Sox, which suggests anything is possible, thus I’ll side with underdog New York whom I believe has better pitching matchup in last two games to win the series.

Betjamaica.com series odds: N.Y. Yankees +125, Boston -155

3DW Pick: Yankees

2009 Record – 1-1