Baseball Series Wagering - Tigers at Mariners

After finishing 4-2 on their first homestand of the season, Detroit returns to the road for their longest trip of the year, playing 11 games in 11 days against three teams from the American League West starting in Seattle. The Tigers (6-3, +1.3 units) have been the comeback kids thus far with five of their wins coming after trailing.

Another comeback story is pitcher Jeremy Bonderman. The right-hander gave up one hit and one run while striking out five in five innings in a 4-2 win over Cleveland last Saturday. That was Bonderman’s first victory in nearly two years, bouncing back from surgery that broke up a blood clot in his throwing shoulder.

“It was fun to just get back on the mound, compete and be who I am and not worry about my arm hurting,” Bonderman said. “It’s been a long journey back, but I’m hoping I got 35 more starts in and hopefully we can do something special.”

The 27-year old is making the change from a hard-thrower to pitcher. “That was really Jeremy Bonderman the pitcher," Leyland said of his first start in 2010, "not Jeremy Bonderman the 95-96-mph fastball, hard slider. He pitched, and that's the adjustment that he's going to have to make. We're tickled to death today. That's progress, and that's something you have to build on."

His mound opponent for first game is 100 percent healthy and one of the best pitchers in baseball, Felix Hernandez. Seattle’s ace right-hander starts the season with 3.29 ERA, but no-decisions, providing two quality starts on the road, both Mariners wins. This makes it Hernandez first time to take the mound at Safeco Field and he and Mariners’ teammates are 27-9 the last two years he’s been the starter.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Seattle as -182 money line favorites in the first contest of the series with total Ov7. King Felix is 27-8 when the total is 7 to 8.5 (Mariners Record) and 10-1 OVER as a home favorite of -175 to -200. Detroit is 3-9 in Game 1 of a series dating back to last season and is 7-1 in Bonderman’s previous eight road starts.

Game 1 Edge: Seattle

Seattle (4-6, -2 units) has begun the season very slow with the bats, averaging 2.8 runs per game, with sordid team batting average of .231. They have shown a few signs of starting to work their way out of it with nine or more hits in four of last five games. The Mariners are the only team in baseball that has yet to score more than five runs in single game and they might still be searching facing the Tigers ace Jason Verlander.

The 6’5 right-hander has dialed up the fastball into the upper-90’s, however has ERA of 9.00 because he’s lacked command of secondary pitches to retire hitters thus far. He’s making mistakes that are getting hit or batters are sitting dead-red in their second or third time at bat, not fearing Verlander can throw anything else over the plate. With Seattle still searching at the dish, Detroit’s top pitcher could go to 44-18 (Tigers Record) against losing teams.

Seattle counters with Ryan Rowland-Smith. The Aussie has a sound delivery with a tailing fastball, a big overhand curveball that he likes to use early in counts to go along with first-rate changeup. Rowland-Smith is known for throwing strikes, but is not a strike-out pitcher. If the lefty is taking his turn in the rotation in Game 2, Seattle has four-game winning streak.

Game 2 Edge: Detroit

The series finale is a wild card contest, at least as far as the pitching is concerned. The Tigers go with Max Scherzer, who throws 95 MPH fastball and has devastating sweeping slider when he’s on. Has tendency to get lazy with mechanics, which adds up pitch count unnecessarily or has one faulty inning that costs him. One aspect in his favor is Detroit is 36-18 vs. teams whose hitters strike out seven or more times a game coming into the series.

Ian Snell is making his third start of the year and comes in with ERA of 5. Snell would be described as a “slinger” with his three-quarters delivery style and follow thru. His fastball runs and sinks and he possesses a hard slider, but isn’t known as great listener and too easily loses command of the strike zone. Though a very good athlete, at 5’11 lacks the leverage to get extra tilt on his pitches when he tires. Snell is 1-1 with a 2.13 ERA in two career starts against the Tigers and Seattle begins the series having won 19 of last 26 at home.

Game 3 Edge: Detroit

The first two games have starting pitchers from each team that can dominate, which sets up a split. The starting pitching matchup for Game 3 is a push, however the Tigers bullpen and offense has been better thus far, making them the series play in the second weekend of baseball action.

DiamondSportsbook.com series odds: Detroit +140 , Seattle -180

3Daily Winners Pick: Detroit

Two Monday Tilts Highlight MLB Schedule

With only nine wagering opportunities on the baseball beat this Monday, some games take on greater importance than others. Two games in particular standout for today, Detroit at Los Angeles Angels and the final game between San Francisco and Colorado. Here is a betting outlook at each conflict.

Tigers at Angels

With football programming taking over the mother-ship on Monday’s, baseball gets moved to the side slightly, over to ESPN2 (remember when they tried to make it sound cool by calling it “The Deuce”). For real baseball and sports fans, that should not detract from the fact that two American League division leaders matchup, with a superb pitching matchup.

Detroit (65-58, -1.2 units) is three games clear in the loss column of Chicago, thanks to its efforts at home, not on the road. The Tigers have had nothing to roar about with 25-38 road record, scoring just four runs per game, which is 25th in baseball. Detroit just lost series to appalling Oakland club and will take on team from Anaheim that loves to scoot. The Tigers are 3-14 in road games vs. good base-running teams averaging 0.85 or more stolen bases a game over the last three seasons.

Justin Verlander (13-7, 3.29 ERA) will be entrusted with limiting the Angels, having 2.70 ERA in his last eight starts and has pitched at least eight innings in four of his last six outings. The only knock on Verlander is 0-2 record with a 4.55 ERA in five starts (Tigers 1-4) against the Angels.

The Halos (74-48, +24.1 units) are six games ahead of Texas in the loss column in the AL West and will send their best pitcher to the mound in Jered Weaver (13-4, 3.89). Weaver’s been a little spotty in the second half of the season, but is off complete game road shutout at Cleveland. Weaver is 5-1 in his last nine starts, with an ERA of 5.43, however that has gone somewhat unnoticed with the Angels batters scoring 8.2 runs in that stretch. Weaver is 8-1 at the Big A this season (Halos 11-2) and his ERA is more than a full run lower at home.

DiamondSportsbook.com has the Angels as -125 money line favorites with total Un8.5, in part because how effective they have been at home against Detroit. L.A. has won eight of 10 and 27 of last 35 at home against the Tigers and are 15-5 having lost three of their last four games this season. The Angels are 10-2 OVER after seven or more consecutive road games and Verlander and the Tigers are 10-1 OVER playing on Monday’s.

The opening pitch is set for 7:05 Pacific with Detroit 17-36 in road games when playing against a team with a winning record.

San Francisco at Colorado

The Rockies (70-54, +13 units) turned a deficit into an advantage with one swing of the bat yesterday and is positioned to win three of four against their closest wild card competitor. Colorado’s Seth Smith homered a hanging changeup from Tim Lincecum, giving the Rockies the lead and they went on to win 4-2. Colorado is now three games ahead of San Francisco (67-57, +10.1 units) and would like to build on that lead before traveling to the Bay Area next week to play three at San Fran.

Colorado is 20-9 after a win by two runs or less and will send Jason Marquis (14-8, 3.58) to the mound trying to become the National League’s first 15-game winner. The Rocks will face a rejuvenated Barry Zito (8-11, 4.26), who has allowed three or less runs in his last seven starts. The left-hander has been victimized by offense that has produced a league-low 2.9 runs for a regular starting pitcher.

The Rockies are -165 money line favorites with total Un9.5. Colorado is 16-4 (+14.6 Units) against the ML playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) this season and 21-12 OVER as a home favorite of -125 to -175. San Francisco is looking for the split and is 12-6 vs. a starting pitcher who throws more than 6.5 innings per start and Zito and the Giants are 13-3 UNDER in August games since 2007.

This NL West confrontation is 5:40 Pacific start.

Baseball Betting info you can use

The Florida Marlins swept Toronto on the road over the weekend and are 4-2 in interleague play in 2009. The Marlins are the top OVER team in baseball at 35-27-3 (56.5 percent) and have a number of atypical numbers that should get every sports bettor thinking. The Fish lead Major League baseball in striking out the most and their pitchers strike out the most batters, adding to natural air conditioning at Landshark Stadium when Florida is home or playing away games.

Florida’s home stadium is considered an almost neutral ballpark for hitters and pitchers, yet Marlins relievers have 5.78 ERA at home and 1.98 ERA on the road. The Florida bullpen has blown eight of 14 save attempts in the home white uniforms yet have converted eight of nine in traveling grays.

With so much talk in recent years about the importance of a quality bullpen, what gets lost is what solid starting staff can do for a team. The San Francisco Giants had the oldest team in baseball and knew they had to become younger and restock the farm system after years of trying to surround Barry Bonds with veteran players trying to win division titles. The strength of the team had become its young starting pitching, with the likes of Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain.

The everyday lineup would become a work in progress; nevertheless, playing in a pitcher’s park, pitching and defense would have to carry the Giants for now. San Fran is the fifth best bet in baseball at +6.1 units and 34-29 on the year. They have accomplished this despite being 28th in runs scored and on-base percentage and dead last in home runs (36).

The laid-back Lincecum (6-1, 2.66 ERA, 1.17 WHIP) has pitched about as expected and Cain, after dropping some weight, has really come into his own (9-1, 2.39, 1.26). Veterans Randy Johnson and Barry Zito have had rocky outings, but have given the team a chance to win as often as not. Only Jonathan Sanchez has been a real disappointment at 2-6. Manager Bruce Bochy has also had the luxury of trotting out the same group of five pitchers all season, a real rarity.

The San Francisco bullpen has pitched very well of late with 1.29 ERA in last seven games, moving up to eight overall. With the starters taking the pressure off the relievers, Bochy is able to go into late innings with set-up men and closer in place, making everyone more productive, explaining why the Giants have won 14 of last 19, despite not much run support.

Maybe Peter Coors of Coors Brewing is right, there is something in the water in the Rocky Mountains. The Colorado Rockies have again put together one of those out of nowhere streaks, with 11 consecutive wins and are within a game of .500 at 31-32 (+0.9). What was the cause and effect for such a drastic turnaround? The players were forced to look in the mirror after Clint Hurdle was jettisoned as manager.

"A lot of us realized that it wasn't him that wasn't out there executing," pitcher Aaron Cook said. The staff ace realized he was among those who was not performing, as one of the most extreme groundball pitchers in baseball was having too many baseball get air under them and getting hit hard. In his last three starts, Cook (5-3, 4.26, 1.39) has given six total runs in 21 innings and surrendered three walks over that period.

Collectively, the Rockies pitchers have not surrendered more than four runs in a single game during this scalding streak and the batters have started ripping the cover off the ball scoring 6.6 runs per game. Colorado has picked up a stunning +13.8 units during this stretch, giving streak-riders plenty to smile about.

Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh are next to visit this team on a Rocky Mountain high, the Rocks are worth watching for what direction they will go once they finally suffer a loss.

Earlier, mentioned the maturation of Matt Cain and another pitcher that has found a groove (a deep one at that) is Detroit’s Justin Verlander. Last year’s disastrous season (11-17, 4.84) had some wondering what direction the talented hard-throwing right-hander was headed. His first four starts brought back those same questions, yielding 21 earned runs in 22 innings. However, the words of new pitching coach Rick Knapp started to sink in and on April 27 at home against the Yankees, Verlander pitched seven shutout innings, with nine K’s and no walks. Knapp slowed down Verlander’s delivery and suddenly pitches that were up in the zone, were back down, with far greater control. The confidence returned and the speed variation on the breaking pitches was being spotted again.

The 26-year has won his last seven decisions and the Tigers are 8-2 when #35 takes the ball since his fourth start of the year. Verlander has been so dominant in last nine starts; he has 1.10 ERA and leads the American League in hitters swing and missing with 182. (Thanks, Inside Edge) Detroit is 7-1 (+5.4 units) when Verlander starts and he is the only starting pitcher to break triple digits on the radar gun twice in 2009.

Saturday Selections

Nice to knockdown two out of three winners, taking us to 81-52-3, 60.9 percent. Have a rare NBA system this time of year, however at 84.6 percent, difficult to ignore. Top notch Trend going in the NL East and Sal tries to deliver another winner with Free Play. Good Luck. By the way, added new feature to bottom of page.

What I thought yesterday- The NHL really screwed up the Stanley Cup Finals. Back to back games, three games and four days and four games in six days. Games three and four won’t even be televised on major network (Versus). Commish Gary Bettman should be fired on this alone.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY OVER when the total is between 190 to 199.5 points in the sixth game of a playoff series. (22-4, 84.6 percent L13Y)

Free Baseball Trend -2) Josh Johnson and the Florida Marlins are 13-1 against NL East rivals.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Sal stays hot and backs Detroit Tigers with Justin Verlander pitching.