Ravens at Patriots Betting Matchup

The Baltimore Ravens, off a pair of playoffs wins a year ago, head into New England believing they can at least match that total. The Ravens are not concerned about New England being 8-0 (4-3-1 ATS) in home playoff games during the Tom Brady era. They view this as opportunity because of advantages they see for themselves.

Start with Baltimore was fifth in rushing at 137.9 yards per game and the Patriots were a pedestrian 23rd in allowing 4.4 yards per carry. Ray Rice and Willis McGahee have both gotten hot and New England has been forced to “junk-up” its defense to increase productivity in recent weeks with mixed results.

Though the Ravens secondary finished eighth in passing defense, their cornerbacks are beatable. Fortunately for them, they will have one less weapon to deal with in Wes Welker, done for the season. That means the Baltimore can focus their attention on Randy Moss. Baltimore is 6-2 ATS in road playoff games.

New England is in the postseason again after winning their seventh AFC East title in nine years, though not the team of prior seasons. The Patriots were perfect at Gillette Stadium this season (5-3 ATS), which included a hard-fought 27-21 win in Week 4 over Baltimore.

With Welker out, the underneath role falls to rookie Julian Edelman to be the slot receiver. Though Edelman has been productive when called upon this season, he lacks the skill and savvy of Welker. Having played quarterback in college, he doesn’t have the experience to find seams and read coverage’s as well. Expect the New England game plan to include screens to running backs and more throws to the tight ends to make up for Welker’s loss. The Pats are 23-5 ATS playing against a marginal winning team (51 to 60 win percentage).

Bill Belicheck’s defense gave up 144 yards rushing to Houston last week, but run stoppers Vince Wilfork and Ty Warren had the week off and should be refresher. In the last five weeks, the Patriots have been generating a better pass rush off the edges; particularly from LB Tully Banta-Cain. Derrick Burgess had a good game last week for the Pats; expect to see more of him since Joe Flacco is not always quick to feel the pressure from the perimeter.

DiamondSportsbook.com has the Brady Bunch as 3.5-point favorites, with total of 43.5. The Patriots are 21-7-1 ATS following a SU loss and are is 17-6 UNDER in playoff games. Achieving a semblance of offensive balance will be crucial and quick hitting plays running off-tackle.

Baltimore is 21-9 ATS after gaining 175 or more rushing yards last game and the offensive line has been mowing down the opposition to the tune of 211.7 yards the last month. If they move the pile on New England, they can exploit an untrustworthy New England secondary. With journeyman Leigh Bodden their best cover guy, even an ordinary pass-catching contingent like the Ravens can do damage.

The Birds are 11-3 OVER as a road underdog of seven points or less.

Wagering Info for Week 13 of the NFL

December not only brings the cold winds and frigid temperatures, but a frosty end to many professional teams playoff hopes. The New York Giants are among those that have to come up with a winner, especially playing rival Dallas at home. In a conflict Alfred Hitchcock would enjoy, it’s the battle of birds down south. For the Eagles and Falcons, it’s about finding healthy players to perform. Houston blew two leads at home to all but crush their playoff dreams, now they will try and do the same to Jacksonville on the road before all 30,000 Jags fans. Tennessee is living the dream and is halfway to finishing the year 10-0, facing unbeaten Indianapolis. Coach Bill Belichick has been served a piece of humble pie besides the usual pumpkin and will look to regroup in Miami to start an extended winning streak.

Philadelphia at Atlanta 1:00E FOX

The Eagles and Falcons are two of the handful of teams in contention for the NFC Wildcard spots, so a loss in this head-to-head matchup would be devastating for either. If history is any indication, Atlanta could be in trouble, as Philadelphia (6-5 ATS) owns a 7-3 SU & 8-1-1 ATS edge in the last 10 games of the series. However, most of those matchups were in Philly, evidenced by the fact that the home team is on a 6-1 SU & ATS run in that span. The Falcons are in the middle of a three-game homestand and are 6-5 after beating Tampa Bay. They are 7-4 ATS in 2009, including 4-1 ATS at home. The Eagles, 7-4, begin a critical two-game road set in this one, with the next stop in the Meadowlands. The head-to-head series between these teams has also been low scoring, with seven of the previous going UNDER.

Keys to the Game-

In this confrontation of attrition, Philadelphia has the edge, having worked through it. No Brian Westbrook, rookie LeSean McCoy has stepped right in and looked comfortable. Explosive DeSean Jackson out, another rookie Jeremy Maclin steps in. Coach Andy Reid and Donovan McNabb have to work better in the red zone, as K David Akers needs to make appearances for extra points, not field goals. The Eagles too often have played to level of competition, with Falcons missing offensive firepower, go win the game in the first half and stop dawdling like last week against Washington. If they don’t, Eagles are unlikely to improve upon December record of 2-10 ATS on the road against non-division team with revenge.

Backup Chris Redman will make his 11th career start filling in for Matt Ryan and has to keep his head from spinning all the way around with the dizzying array of blitzes he is certain to face. Be confident, make the right read and hit the hot receiver. The Falcons offensive line will have to be a difference-maker against 8th ranked run defense. Yes Michael Turner is out and Jerious Norwood is dinged, but they have to create running lanes for plugger Jason Snelling to run thru or 4-14 ATS mark as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 points is a distinct possibility. The front four has to step up to protect 27th ranked pass defense.

3DW Line – Philadelphia by 1
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Philadelphia -5, 43.5

Houston at Jacksonville 1:00E CBS

The Jaguars and Texans both maintain wildcard hopes but it is getting late for Houston (5-5-1 ATS), who is 5-6 after losing to Indianapolis. They are now 1-4 in divisional games this season, including a 31-24 home loss to Jacksonville back in September. That sets up a nice spot for head coach Gary Kubiak’s team who is on a 16-6 ATS run revenging a loss where the opponents topped the 28-point mark. Coach Jack Del Rio’s team is off another horrible trip west, a 20-3 setback to the 49ers which dropped their record to 6-5. This starts a three-game homestand for the Jaguars (4-7 ATS), who are desperate to improve a 2-11 ATS slide in home games over the last season-and-a-half. Houston, who has played surprisingly well on the road, 7-2 ATS in its last nine and is also 5-2 ATS at Jacksonville since 2002.

Keys to the Game-

For whatever reason, quarterback Matt Schaub seems more comfortable on the road than at Reliant Stadium. The Texans score 26.2 points per game away from Houston and 21.3 at home. Schaub has the ability to help his team win three road games in a row, but must avoid throwing interceptions and fumbling like last week to give his club a chance. The Texans are 16-7-1 ATS off consecutive spread losses and have to lower pad level to contain Maurice Jones-Drew or he will run wild vs. defense that allows 4.8 yards per carry (31st).

Jacksonville is being dissed in spite of winning record, however when you have allowed 53 more points than you’ve scored, scrutiny is sure to follow. The Jaguars pass defense ranks 26th, but Texas will have third new starter this season at left tackle, which means load up on that side and pressure Schaub’s backside. The Jags are 1-8 ATS at home against AFC opponents since last year and can turn that number around by getting Jones-Drew started early in piling up yards and deflating Houston’s spirit. Jacksonville is really the team with something to play for and has to protect David Garrard, since they are 4-15 SU when he is sacked three times or more.

3DW Line – Houston by 7
Bookmaker.com Line – Houston -2.5, 47

Tennessee at Indianapolis 1:00E CBS

When Indianapolis and Tennessee last met, the Titans were a different team. The Colts’ win in that contest sent coach Jeff Fisher’s team to 0-5, but since eventually dropping six straight, Tennessee (5-6, 5-5-1 ATS) has come alive, winning its last five games to climb back into playoff picture. This one, in Indy, will be their most difficult task remaining as well, and a three-game homestand is next on tap. The Colts (11-0, 7-4 ATS) have won five of last six games when hosting Tennessee, and are 4-2 ATS in that span. However, they are just 2-7 ATS in their previous nine as a divisional host and 1-4 ATS at home in ’09 overall. Looking to remain perfect, head man Jim Caldwell’s team plays three of its final five games at home. The Titans wrap up their divisional slate this week and are 2-3 SU and ATS vs. AFC South foes.

Keys to the Game-

Adrian Peterson might be the best running back in the NFL; nevertheless the hottest is Titans Chris Johnson. The former East Carolina star is the league’s leading rusher at 1,396 yards and is on streak of 125 or more yards in last six contests. Ideally, Tennessee would prefer Johnson to grind out consistent yardage to keep Peyton Manning on the sidelines, but going the distance for six is solid alternative. Vince Young is an incredible story no matter who decided to make him starter. Each game he develops another phase and could give Colts a headache if he leaves the pocket, running or throwing for first downs. Tennessee will be better prepared defensively having complete secondary back, which wasn’t the case in the first matchup. Frustrate Indy into kicking field goals and Titans could march to 10-0 ATS in road games after four or more consecutive non-losses against the spread.

The Colts may be 11-0, but the Titans are hot. Manning had four interceptions in first seven games, but has seven picks in last four. No need to give piping-hot club a reason to feel better about itself. With no Bob Sanders at safety, the job likely falls to Melvin Bullitt to “spy” Young. He has to be physical and remember to take the legs of the tall Texan to prevent big plays. Tennessee is only 4-13 ATS versus excellent offensive teams averaging 375 or more yards per game, put the pressure on their offense to match points by scoring on each possession if possible. Indy linebackers are mostly faceless; however they will have to be at their best to control the speedy Johnson.

3DW Line – Indianapolis by 10
DiamondSportsbook.com Line –Indianapolis -6.5, 46

New England at Miami 1:00E CBS

Miami’s (5-6 SU & ATS) playoff hopes took a crushing blow when it lost in Buffalo 31-14. They may be relegated now to the spoiler role, and will try to do just that to New England’s quest to obtain the AFC’s #2 seed in the postseason. For coach Tony Sparano’s team, it was a first divisional ATS loss of the year (3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS). The Patriots (7-4, 6-5 ATS) are 3-1 in division game so far but just 1-3 ATS. Their only loss was at the Jets in Week 2, which snapped a six-game SU & ATS winning streak on the road vs. AFC East foes. This is their second meeting of the season with New England having won the first at home last month, 27-17, failing to cover an 11-point spread. Favorites are on an 8-3 SU and ATS run in the last 11 matchups between these rivals in Miami, and the Dolphins are 2-5 SU & ATS as a home dog under Sparano.

Keys to the Game –

It was a rare sight indeed, coach Belichick waving the proverbial white flag in having Tom Brady take a seat this past Monday night in New Orleans. The disappointment was so profound, Brady felt compelled to issue statement - "the mourning period is over", this past Wednesday. This is not Patriots team of earlier this decade, yet they still could win next five games and possibly earn second seed, starting with win in Miami. New England has to let Saints loss go and focus on Ricky Williams, who has raised his level of play since Ronnie Brown went down, having at least 100 yards with three touchdowns in each of the past three games. The Pats are puny 1-4 on the road this season with two covers and better be ready to wrap up Williams if they expect to move to 40-21 ATS in road games versus division opponents.

Coach Sparano is emotional leader and a few times it seems those emotions have gotten the best of him in making questionable decisions that cost the Dolphins who have a thin margin for error. Having tricks and surprises is part of being a good coach, but taking chances for lesser rewards won’t have you beat New England. Joey Porter and the Miami defense generated six sacks last week, but none were important in the “clutch” context of the game, which led to Buffalo upset. The defense can sack Brady on first down, but if they allow him to complete third down pass for first down, it was all for naught. The Fins are just 5-16 ATS at Landshark Stadium since 2007.

3DWLine – New England by 6
Bookmaker.com Line – New England -4, 46

Dallas at N.Y. Giants 4:15E FOX

New York already won in Dallas in Week 2. Another victory over the Cowboys at home gets the Giants (6-5, 5-6 ATS) back into the race for the NFC East title. Currently Tom Coughlin’s team trails Dallas by two games in the standings, with Philadelphia sandwiched in between. The Eagles are next up for the Giants at the Meadowlands, so this is a critical homestand for New York. Both teams are 2-1 in divisional play so far in ’09. At 8-3, the Cowboys (6-5 ATS) face a brutal five-game season ending schedule and haven’t had a winning post-Thanksgiving campaign since 2004, with unimposing 4-14-3 ATS record in that span. New York is 21-9 ATS under Coughlin vs. offenses gaining 350 or more yards per game. Favorites have won the last four games between these teams in New Jersey and are 4-0-1 ATS. Six of last eight have gone OVER at Giants home.

Keys to the Game-

It’s about time Dallas puts together a December to remember, instead of how they have failed the last decade (17-29 SU L10Y). It begins with the offensive line, they’ve helped Cowboys to No.6 rushing attack (138 YPG), but Tony Romo has already been sacked a career-high 25 times. The Giants sack numbers are down, but they are wholly capable. The Dallas secondary was toasted 330 yards passing in the first meeting however has improved considerably, now up to 14th in yards per pass attempt. The Giants passing game has been mostly ineffective, save the win over Atlanta, there only W in last six outings. Cover up receivers and pressure Eli Manning. Cowboys have to attack aggressively to shake the doldrums of the final month of the season, yet they are measly 10-21-1 ATS on the road off two SU wins.

The Giants have lost their offensive identity. New York is designed to be running team first and in five opening victories they averaged 36 carries per game. In the subsequent six contests, they averaged just over 24 attempts. Don’t blame it trailing in losses, as they’ve had a second half lead in three of their last encounters. In the NFL, when things are not going well, they tend to snowball and Brandon Jacobs might be Giants only healthy running back. Manning could use the help as he has a stress condition in his right foot, which could account for accuracy issues. The G-Men are 13-4 ATS as an underdog over the last three seasons and D-Line has to bother Romo throughout to protect tremulous secondary.

3DW Line – Dallas by 1
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Dallas -1.5, 45.5

Steve Makinen of The Platinum Sheet contributed to this article.

New England attracting bettor’s attention as underdogs

With the exception of a game or two, the Monday Night football package has enjoyed a number of very entertaining contests. The excitement goes from exceptional to like a child waiting to open that first Christmas present with what is in store Monday night.

Two years ago, the New England Patriots started the season 10-0 on their way to perfect regular season record and had a prime time telecast against Philadelphia, in which the Eagles gave them everything they could handle, before they prevailed 31-28 as better than three touchdown home favorites. That was the first chink in the armor of New England all season and it would not completely manifest itself until they lost in Super Bowl XLII to the New York Giants.

Now the 7-3 Patriots head to the bayou in the role of spoiler, in the exact opposite situation two years later, trying to knock off the perfect 10-0 New Orleans Saints.

The Patriots (6-4 ATS) quickly put behind the notorious Bill Belichick decision against Indianapolis and jettison past the New York Jets 31-14. Tom Brady and receivers Wes Welker and Randy Moss are backing to tearing up defenses. New England is the AFC’s highest scoring offense at 29 points per game and they are averaging 37.2 PPG over their last five outings. They are 37-18 ATS having won four out of their last five games.

DiamondSportsbook.com has the Pats in a shootout with New Orleans, as total is up to 56.5. This has not been a reason to back off the Brady bunch, who is 6-0 ATS vs. excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards per game and 7-0 against the spread if they face a team scoring 29 or more points per contest.

But as good as the Patriots are and have been, New Orleans (7-3 ATS) has been better this season.

Drew Brees is in charge of the top scoring (36.9) team in the league and best offense (420.5) for gaining yards. The Saints increased production followed the offense live and its running backs. New Orleans can pound the ball to control the clock behind Pierre Thomas and Mike Bell averaging 4.8 yards per carry (4th) against teams that allow 4.4. Depending on how coach Sean Payton sets up the game plan and how the flow of the game emerges, New Orleans can play different styles with equal effectiveness. The Saints are 10-1 ATS vs. AFC opponent with .666 or better record in the Superdome.

Oddmakers opened New Orleans as garden variety three-point home favorites, but the wagering public still prefers the Patriots big game experience and have bet the Saints down to 1.5-point choice, despite the 13-4 ATS record as favorites.

New Orleans has scored 21 or more points in 18 straight home games and is 11-1 OVER when the line is +3 to -3. The three-time Super Bowl champions are 10-2 OVER versus rushing teams averaging 4.5 or yards a carry over the last three seasons.

New England covers if they handle the New Orleans blitz packages. More teams have been using combo coverages on Moss, which has left a lot of room for Welker to work underneath and move the chains. This allows the Patriots to move the chains and sets up Moss for later against a secondary that is less than 100 percent health-wise. Expect the Pats to be more patient in the running game than normal, since the Saints have surrendered over 150 yards per game the last four outings. Despite rumored opinions of coach Belichick having lost faith in his defense, the New England secondary is playing a much greater variety of coverages than earlier in the season and will have to mix press coverage with different Cover 2 looks and run exotic blitzes just to keep Brees guessing, which could lead to turnover.

New Orleans covers if they protect the ball. In weeks 7-10, they turned the ball over 13 times and not coincidently, failed to cover three of those four wins. Brees will see different looks than he’s seen all season and has to exhibit patience. Coach Payton has really improved as play-caller, leaving out the “look how smart I am” plays that sometimes placed his team in bad spots in key moments of games. Where the coach has to be at his best is in the red zone, since New England is in the bottom third of the league in defending scores in confined area. The same holds true of Saints defense. Don’t worry about giving up yardage; play tough in the red zone. The Patriots are surprising below average in this area (21 TDs on 44 possessions), which is pointed out ranking third in scoring and ninth in yards per point.

Monday Night System – Play Against any outdoor road team facing an opponent that plays in a dome. (32-14 ATS, 69.5 percent L12Y)

Pats at Colts - Special Contest

A few weeks ago, Week 10’s Sunday night matchup pitting Tom Brady against Peyton Manning appeared to be another in a strong line of games with intriguing storylines for the NBC crew. Continuous injuries to the Indianapolis defense, however, give Brady and New England an advantage when they take the field at the RCA Dome.

The rivalry of the decade resumes in Indianapolis with the stakes high once again, as both teams are off to fast starts and considered top contenders for the AFC title. It wouldn’t be a shock if they meet again in January with a bigger prize on the line.

Running a close second to Manning in terms of earning the Colts 2009 MVP award, is the training staff, as it ranks as one of the most overworked in the NFL. On top of the normal sprains and nagging injuries that have already shelved running back Donald Brown (shoulder) and cornerback Kelvin Hayden (knee), Manning has watched six members of the defense go down for the year. Added to the list, prior to a 20-17 win over Houston last week, were cornerback Marlin Jackson (knee), linebacker Tyjuan Hagler (biceps) and most importantly, the heart and soul of the defense, safety Bob Sanders (elbow). The Colts (5-3 ATS) remains perfect at 8-0, but are just 1-3 ATS at home in 2009, and are 4-10 ATS in its previous testsas host overall.

Brady must be completely healed as he and his offensive teammates beat up on Tennessee and Tampa Bay before their bye week for a combined 688 yards and nine touchdowns. He then torched Miami’s secondary for 332 more yards, including a 71-yard scoring strike to Randy Moss in a 27-17 non-cover victory last Sunday.

It has been a thrilling head-to-head series since Bill Belichick arrived in New England in 2000. There have really been two different eras in the series, with the Patriots winning six straight games between 2001-04, and the Colts having since turned the tide, with about face record of 4-1 SU and ATS in last five confrontations.

In terms of raw numbers, Manning has enjoyed considerable success against New England during his career. But if there’s one player that casts a shadow even bigger than that of Manning, the multimedia superhero, Brady is it. The three-time Super Bowl winner owns two more titles than Manning. Four straight battles between the teams have been decided by a touchdown or fewer, including last season’s 18-15 decision taken by the Colts as six point favorites. The Matt Cassel-led Patriots managed just one touchdown and three field goals.

Line – Indianapolis -2.5 (Courtesy of Sportsbook.com)
Total – 48.5

Team Trends
The Patriots are 13-2 ATS vs. excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards a game after eight or more games on the season.
The Patriots are 2-10 ATS after gaining 300 or more passing yards in two straight games.
The Colts are 17-6 ATS vs. teams outscoring opponents by 10 or more points per game on the season.
The Colts are 2-10 ATS in home games after gaining 75 or less rushing yards in consecutive contests.

Team Totals
The Patriots are 6-0 UNDER in road games off a home win since last year.
The Colts are 13-3 UNDER in home games after six or more consecutive wins.

Sunday Night Trends
The Patriots are 12-16-1 ATS and 5-7-1 ATS as road underdogs.
The Colts are 16-18 ATS and 4-8 ATS as home favorites.
Home teams are 4-18 ATS when both teams are off a SU win.

Expert Opinion – Steve Makinen

This game reminds me a lot of last Sunday night’s feature contest between the Eagles and Cowboys. Philly was playing well and was at home, but yet, oddsmakers had no qualms about keeping the line on the 3-mark throughout the entire week. Bettors sided with the Eagles and lost. Here, the Colts are facing their own old nemesis, the Patriots, and have some injury and home performance woes of their own to deal with. Indy has only covered one of its four games at home, and is just 4-10 ATS in its L14 as host. The Patriots meanwhile are getting better and better as the year rolls on and are a legitimate threat to leave just one team unbeaten. Trends like this underscore what role the coaching difference might play in this game: Bill Belichick is 18-8 ATS versus excellent offensive teams averaging six or more yards/play as the coach of New England. Take the points with New England.

Game Preview by College and Pro Football Newsweekly and Steve Makinen of StatFox.

NFL Week 3 Inside Info

The Tennessee Titans and New England Patriots are two the teams that need to get season turned in the right direction quickly or preseason aspirations might be unfounded. The San Francisco 49ers has adopted the personality of their coach Mike Singletary and will try and pull another surprise in Minnesota on Sunday. Drew Brees has New Orleans en fuego, but they are expected to having a rugged time in Buffalo. Can Cincinnati end home drought to the Super Bowl champions? That question and many others will be answered as theirs Week 3 of the NFL commences.

Tennessee at N.Y. Jets 1:00E CBS

The Titans and Jets aren’t divisional foes, but they have become quite familiar with one another over the last several seasons. In fact, this Week 3 meeting between the teams will mark the fourth straight season that the teams have squared off. In that span, the Jets own a 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS edge. In fact, the Jets have actually swept the last five meetings overall against the spread. At 0-2, Tennessee is in dangerous waters, with a difficult stretch of games upcoming. The Jets are flying high, one of nine 2-0 teams after beating the Patriots. Head coach Jeff Fisher’s team has gone 9-3 ATS in its last 12 road games, while the Jets’ Week 2 win improved their mark in early season home contests, they are still dismal 8-20 ATS as September hosts.

Keys to the Game-

Facts are facts; the Titans pass defense has been wretched, dead last in the NFL at 339 yards per game. Tennessee has first year DC Chuck Cecil and they’ve blitzed hardly at all, now would be a good time to show urgency and pressure QB Mark Sanchez, if they want pull the upset and improve to 9-1 ATS in opening month. Kerry Collins will see similar blitz packages Tom Brady did last week and will have to be on target and utilize RB Chris Johnson in open areas. Look for LenDale White to see more action against the No. 6 New York run defense. The Titans are 14-3 ATS after gaining 200 or more rushing yards in last game.

The Jets offensive coaches have done exceptional work in giving Sanchez just enough to handle, without overburdening him. The run game has been effective enough and Sanchez has delivered when being asked to throw. Coach Rex Ryan has already made his impression on Flyboys, having the same smile as comedian Ron White in an “I told you so manner”. New York’s front seven must lock up Johnson, since the Titans are run-first team and if successful, will send five and six players to hound Collins. New York is 6-2 ATS off a win; however is 1-7 ATS if opponent is off SU favorite loss this month.

3DWLine – N.Y. Jets -7

DiamondSportsbook.com Line – N.Y. Jets -2, 37

San Francisco at Minnesota 1:00E FOX

Minnesota is off to a fast start at 2-0, with both wins having come on the road. Thus, a fired up Metrodome crowd figure to greet the Vikings and their new signal caller on Sunday when they host San Francisco in the home opener. The franchise has split its last eight opening home games SU & ATS and has gone just 10-15 ATS under Brad Childress as hosts. Minnesota is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings when hosting the 49ers, and overall, the home team owns an 8-2 SU & ATS mark. For the 49ers, also 2-0 after beating Seattle at home, another away contest offers a chance to extend a 4-2 ATS stretch in road games under head coach Mike Singletary. The matchup could hinge on the 49ers rush defense (53 yards per game, 2.6 yards per carry) stopping running back Adrian Peterson and the Vikings’ ground game (168 YPG, 5.4 YPR).

Keys to the Game-

The Vikings may be off a pair of wins; however the trademark run defense has not manifested itself to date. It’s true, basing production after two tilts is panicky, nevertheless, Minnesota ranks 15th against the rush taking on lowly Cleveland and Detroit. The 49ers with Frank Gore bring more to the party and the Vikes closed last season 1-4 ATS in the dome. Brett Favre hasn’t gotten in sync with his receivers yet and they are 31st in yards per pass attempt (4.8), they’ll need to make better connections to loosen Niners secondary. Favre has been sacked seven times already and taken other body blows. This has to change or Minny falls to 3-11 ATS of a victory.

San Francisco’s defense is rated seventh, because they have limited big plays and forced the opposing team to go the length of the field one first down at a time. This becomes even more important against Adrian Peterson. The Niners have covered last four contests as underdogs by protecting the pigskin; they’ll need more of the same in Minnesota. The 49ers offensive coaches should not want to fall into trap of giving up on third down and medium or long, always hoping a receiver can make a play. The coaches have to be more aggressive and attack. San Fran is 10-2 UNDER in road games after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in two straight games.

3DW Line – Minnesota by 4
Bookmaker.com Line – Minnesota -7, 39.5

Atlanta at New England 1:00E FOX

The 2-0 Falcons hit the road for the first time in 2009, with a difficult task at hand, facing the 1-1 Patriots. Atlanta has fared well in inter-conference games, 11-5-1 ATS over the last four seasons vs. the AFC. They also come in on a nice stretch of 7-3 SU & 9-1 ATS in pre-bye week games since 2001. The Falcons will enjoy next week off before heading to San Francisco. With this game, New England begins a stretch of three home games in the next four weeks against some of the NFL’s better clubs. Dating back to 2004, the Pats are just 15-22 ATS at Foxboro. They are only 3-5 ATS hosting NFC clubs in that span. This will be the first time since 1998 that the Falcons have visited New England, and the road clubs have won the last three meetings, both SU & ATS.

Keys to the Game-

It’s not business as usual for New England as many anticipated. Tom Brady might be cool under pressure, but is proving to not like angry large men around his surgically repaired left knee. His mechanics are off, getting rid of the ball a split second sooner than before and acting human. The offensive line and running backs have to start shouldering more of the load for the 26th ranked running game. That means this week containing DE John Abraham. The Patriots are 22-7 ATS off a loss and just don’t look and feel right. This thought process is formulated by seeing New England is third in total defense, yet when watching them, the Bills and Jets SEEMED to make all the plays they needed when necessary.

Atlanta has been more aggressive to attempting to create pressure this season on defense and will want to keep Brady off-kilter however possible. The Falcons are 11-4 ATS as road underdogs of 3.5-10.0 points and will want to batter away at New England’s defensive front with Michael Turner. Atlanta has averaged 32 rush attempts in first two games, which would help keep the Brady Bunch off the field, but coach Mike Smith better find another back, with Turner having 50 carries already. Matt Ryan has looked super and that grin he’s wearing has a lot to do with having Tony Gonzalez as tight end, which really makes the passing game work. The Birds will try to reverse 0-6 ATS trend after two or more wins over the last three seasons.

3DW Line – New England by 1

DiamondSportsbook.com Line – New England -4.5, 46.5

New Orleans at Buffalo 4:05E FOX

New Orleans might be one of the NFL’s elite teams and the favorite in Sunday’s game at Buffalo, but make no mistake, this one won’t be easy. After last week’s win over Tampa Bay, Head coach Dick Jauron now owns a 15-3 ATS mark at home against non-conference teams. His Bills’ clubs are also 9-4 ATS in September, and 8-4 ATS as home underdogs. By all rights, Buffalo should be 2-0 headed into this one as well, having handed New England the win in the Monday night opener. The Saints are in a comfortable role however, that being road favorites. Under Sean Payton, they are 7-1 SU & ATS after last week’s win at Philly. His team was also 4-0 ATS against the AFC last season. In this series, road teams are on a 3-1 SU & ATS run, with favorites having swept the last three.

Keys to the Game –

The thesaurus sure comes in handy in describing Drew Brees and the Saints offense thus far. Brees is playing with max confidence and has more visible weapons than Iran. As long as the offensive line keeps the protection up and runners like Mike Bell are effective, New Orleans is going to make long weeks for opposing defensive coordinators. The Saints defense won’t strike fear into the hearts of opposing clubs, but seven forced turnovers have limited opponents from scoring and if a team can establish identity for causing miscues, they make the opposition more careful. Buffalo head man Dick Jauron has never given the impression as coach that “hits” on 15 in blackjack, which benefits the Saints who are 6-0 ATS after playing their last game on the road.

The best way to negate New Orleans offense is keep them on the sidelines. The Bills are averaging 5.7 yards per carry with Fred Jackson doing the toting. Buffalo will want establish Jackson and if successful, that means the Saints have to start walking safeties up on earlier downs, creating more space for Lee Evans and Terrell Owens. The Bills are 10-3-2 ATS as non-division home dogs of three or more and will have to be creative defensively in cooling Brees. Buffalo blitzed over 60 percent of Tampa Bay’s drop-backs a week ago and will have to similar numbers, with greater disguise against the Saints. Bills QB Trent Edwards can’t turn the ball over, and must find safety Darren Sharper on all pre-snap reads. Bills must avoid shootout, with New Orleans 13-3 OVER after one or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons.

3DW Line – New Orleans by 1
Bookmaker.com Line – New Orleans -6, 51.5

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati 4:15E CBS

Pittsburgh and Cincinnati will each be playing their first divisional games of 2009 when they go head-to-head on Sunday. Both teams are 1-1 and already looking up at Baltimore the AFC North standings. For the Bengals’, this game is critical, as they face a back-to-back road trip next up on the schedule and since they will be looking to thwart a trend of 3-13 SU & ATS against Pittsburgh at home. Overall, Pittsburgh has won the last five battles, including four in a row by double-digit margins. Cincy is also just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 divisional games, 1-4 SU & ATS at home. The Steelers are 9-4 ATS vs. AFC North rivals in the Mike Tomlin era, 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS on the road. They look to rebound from the loss in Chicago, their third straight ATS setback away from home.

Keys to the Game-

It hard to call this a rivalry, as Cincinnati hasn’t won at home against Pittsburgh since 2001, but no time like the present. The Bengals players to a man feel disrespected by the Steelers and want to change the score. Without Troy Polamalu, Ochocinco and Cincinnati wideouts will have a little more room over the middle. If they can get backup Tyrone Carter to bite, this leaves more space outside the hashmarks for Carson Palmer to operate. RB Cedric Benson is running like the back Chicago drafted, with 217 yards already. No back has gone over 100 yards against the Steelers in 20 games, but if Benson can pile up yardage to keep his team out of bad down and distance situations and carry for a few first downs, that will help immensely for a team that is 11-5 ATS after rushing for over 150 yards.

The Cincinnati defense has been more attacking and for whatever reason, the first two Bengals opponents have only averaged 19 carries a game in spite of being close contests. Pittsburgh has to get running game untracked and Cincy is pedestrian 4.3 YPC allowed, thus serve up Willie Parker and Rashard Mendenhall. The O-Line has to block DE Antwan Odom, who has a season full of sacks (7) for most defensive linemen in two games. The Steelers D has created pressure, just not sacks. They need to put the immobile Palmer on the ground to improve to 22-8-2 ATS as division road team.

3DWLine – Pittsburgh by 5.5

DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Pittsburgh -3.5, 37.5

Steve Makinen of StatFox contributed to this article.

Matching Quarterbacks to ATS numbers

While scanning the internet, I came across someone talking about how they didn’t necessarily agree with an article that former NFL quarterback and current ESPN football analyst Trent Dilfer wrote about NFL quarterbacks. After doing a quick search on Google, found the article where the Dilfer broke down each NFL starting signal caller and placed them into specific categories.

If you’ve heard Dilfer on ESPN, he comes across pretty well, speaks knowledgably about most topics, however he’s not above throwing a bizarre zinger that makes absolutely no sense, which brings his credibility into question.

Articles like the one Dilfer wrote are good fodder for discussion since they are mildly controversial, yet offer interesting opinions. Taking what the former Super Bowl champion quarterback had to say and matchup it up against the realities of betting on sports, let’s see where the two worlds intersect.

Not surprisingly, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady are rated as the best in nearly all facets of the game. One of the keys for both is unquestioned preparation and ability to analyze defenses and make adjustments in a split second. For the sports bettor, Brady is the preferred choice. The former Michigan man is 53-39-3 ATS as favorite. Though he and his team have gotten off to slow start, and few doubt New England won’t improve along with their quarterback. Off the loss to the Jets, Brady and the Pats are 18-7 ATS after a straight up defeat. The older Manning has never kept that same company and has unusual record. Possibly because the Indianapolis has been so dominant in winning AFC South over the years, they are overvalued by oddsmakers or these teams are just more familiar with the Colts, they can stymie them. Whatever the reasoning, Manning is 30-44-2 ATS in division games. Get him out of the division and he’s 66-48-3 ATS.

His next group down has Drew Brees and Philip Rivers. Though only two games into 2009 campaign, Brees, despite not having typical NFL quarterback stature and size requirements, is head and shoulders above the competition. The New Orleans offense looks like the Patriots of the couple of years ago and the St. Louis Rams “greatest show on turf” from the Kurt Warner years. Brees has led his team to two 40+ point totals with incredible ball distribution. Though Brees is 26-27-1 ATS in home games, he’s 35-18-4 ATS on the road, including fabulous 12-2 against the spread mark as road favorite after Sunday’s wipeout in Philadelphia.

Philip Rivers has gotten better each year as quarterback and San Diego is now his team. Though he’s a bit too much of a chatterbox, as Dilfer points out, Rivers makes the hardest throws among starting quarterbacks, since Norv Turner’s offense is more vertical, meaning throwing the ball 15-25 yards down the field and he does so with uncanny accuracy. The Chargers have offensive line and defensive issues at the moment, but Rivers and Bolts are still 18-10 ATS at home and 18-8-1 ATS when matched against a team off a loss.

Dilfer’s next batch could be rated higher by others and not many would argue. Remember when Eli Manning was too casual about playing quarterback and didn’t work as hard as his older brother? At the time, all of us weren’t aware NOBODY worked as hard as Peyton. Eli has gone on to earn his own Super Bowl ring and is adroitly moving his game up several notches working with new receivers and having success. Eli’s calm demeanor helps New York be in the right running plays and at two-minute drill time. The younger Manning and the Giants are methodical on the road with 27-12-1 ATS record.

Remember how unorthodox Brett Favre was for years, his replacement is Ben Roethlisberger. Big Ben has two gaudy Super Bowl rings and will likely never receive the true credit he deserves until a few years from now. He’s the best improviser at his position, and keeps plays alive most quarterbacks would just throw the ball away on. He a money-maker on a team that isn’t given the underdog role too often and he’s 14-6 ATS when catching points. Here’s two numbers to remember about Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh is 22-12 ATS with revenge and 20-9 ATS in the AFC North.

Dilfer also likes the productivity of Donovan McNabb and Matt Hasselbeck as veterans. Both have become more injury-prone in advancing years. McNabb when healthy is 45-26 ATS away from home and Hasselbeck is 28-17-2 ATS playing in coffee-town.

In his article, Dilfer calls the next group “knocking on the door”. This is primarily young quarterbacks with promise, who have to take the next step and take their teams to playoffs and start winning those games. Joe Flacco did just that, but was more a game manager than facilitator. In 2009, Flacco shows signs of progress. Matt Ryan is similar to Flacco and has the look of being able to prevent Atlanta from going backwards and making his club a Play On team. Aaron Rodgers is only 7-11 and 9-9 ATS at Green Bay, but he needs pass protection and a defense that stop somebody to take next growth step.

Tony Romo is drifting towards enigma stage. Talent-wise he’s probably Top 5, but his decision-making is horrendous in the biggest games, not unlike how he performed in Giants game this past Sunday. Yes, the Cowboys are always going to be overvalued, but to be 21-21 ATS with the amount of talent surrounding him, not acceptable.

Jay Cutler could be another breakout quarterback, if he shows maturity on and off the field. His spread numbers make most bettors pale (4-17-1 ATS as a favorite comes to mind), yet his ability is unquestioned outside a select few in Denver and if he grows with an unproven group of receivers in Chicago, it might be what he needs in the growth process.

Most of the other quarterbacks are what they are (Carson Palmer, Kurt Warner and Chad Pennington) and aren’t likely to become better without protection and talent around them. Many others like Trent Edwards, David Garrard and Shaun Hill need a solid running game to be most effective.

This is a worthwhile read especially in a league so dependent on one player in a team game. Sports bettors are wise to consider the quarterback matchup each and every game as a possible difference-maker for spread wins and losses.

Tom Brady returns for Monday Night Football

Not even the absence of Tom Brady last year stopped the Patriots from continuing their dominance of Buffalo. New England swept a fifth straight season series (8-2 ATS) from its AFC East rival and takes an 11-game series winning streak into the Monday night opener at Gillette Stadium. The Bills haven’t defeated the Patriots since Week 1 of the 2003 campaign, and even worse is they haven’t scored more than 17 points in any meeting since that game.

Perhaps the debut of flamboyant wide receiver Terrell Owens can get Buffalo over the hump against New England and set the tone for the team’s first playoff season since 1999.

But as Boston rockers Aerosmith would suggest: Dream On.

Brady, not Owens, will be the center of attention in this one after going down in last year’s opener and missing the remainder of the season following a record-setting 2007. Brady’s reconstructed ACL and MCL have passed all the tests, and he’s still got Randy Moss and Wes Welker as primary targets and another potential home-run threat in Joey Galloway. The Patriots have covered six of last eight games against the AFC.

Buffalo’s defense needs to be better and more consistent, especially against the run. Even with Marcus Stroud up front, the unit gave up 121.6 rushing yards per game and 18 touchdowns, ranking 22nd and tied for 24th in those categories, respectively. The Bills also had only 24 sacks, which prompted the drafting of Aaron Maybin (1a-Penn State) at No. 11 overall. Maybin led the Big Ten in sacks with 12. One matchup to watch closely is right end Aaron Schobel, who missed the last 11 games of last season with a foot injury, against Patriots left tackle Matt Light. After 5-1 start last season, the Bills closed 2-8 and 3-7 ATS.

Offensively, with Marshawn Lynch serving the first of his three-game suspension for violating the league’s personal conduct policy the Bills will turn to Fred Jackson and Xavier Omon for ground work. Lynch topped 1,000 yards in each of his first two seasons, while Jackson (571 yards) averaged 4.4 yards on 130 carries in 2008. The Bills are only 2-9-1 ATS in last dozen trips to New England.

New England could also use a three-pronged running game. Laurence Maroney is still considered the starter, but he’s on thin ice and coming off an injury that limited him to a 28-carry year. Fred Taylor, formerly of Jacksonville, wasn’t given a contract to watch from the sideline and will see action. Pats backers have been taking it on the chin at home with 3-8 ATS record since 2007.

DiamondSportsbook.com has New England favored by 11 over the Bills, with a total of 46.5. The UNDER has been good 17 times in last 22 matchups and the Patriots have not covered their last seven home games as favorites of 10 or more points. Here is a look at how either team covers the spread.

Buffalo covers if they attack New England vertically. The Bills didn’t bring in T.O. to run five yard out-routes, they need him to be dynamic presence in pushing the ball downfield. This could open up chances for Lee Evans who also has breakaway speed with big play explosiveness. The New England secondary isn’t exactly rock solid at the moment and if Bills linemen can keep Trent Edwards clean, they will have opportunities. Though Brady looked comfortable in limited action in the preseason, every quarterback who has gone thru major knee surgery, has to be a little nervous with players around their feet, it’s only natural. The best way to bother Brady is with pressure. If the Bills can execute properly they could make this a touchdown or less contest.

New England covers because they have no fear of the Bills and have won last 11 meetings by 22.7 points per game. Coach Bill Belichick will want to have Brady get comfortable right away, with quick throws to Welker and Moss out of the shotgun. This opens up numerous options in the offense and if the Buffalo pass rush is anywhere as anemic as last season, the Pats explode. The Patriots are not 100 percent situated on defense, especially without Richard Seymour, nonetheless that’s better than the Bills offensive setup, who fired offensive coordinator Turk Schonert September 4, 10 days before this game. Sounds like Pats by say 22.

Monday Night Football System - Play On a favorite of 10 or more points. This system is 15-8 ATS, 65.2 percent with the favored team 22-1 straight up.

College and Pro Football Newsweekly contributed to this article.

Arizona favored to play there best football

The Arizona Cardinals are the defending NFC champions and are winless in the preseason, no big deal right? None of the top three quarterbacks have generated an offensive touchdown, no big deal right? Kurt Warner had off-season hip surgery and hasn’t looked like the quarterback that took his team to Super Bowl last season, no big deal right? This needs to be the week the Cardinals put it all together, to erase any doubts about them, especially playing at home. Also, we’ll preview the Patriots at the Redskins.

Green Bay at Arizona

The Cardinals are 3.5-point favorites at DiamondSportsbook.com and want this to start building confidence for the upcoming season. Arizona ALMOST won the Super Bowl, yet the fact remains they were 9-7 in the regular season in 2008 and were not considered elite team when the playoffs began. In this contest, Warner and the first team offense want to put up points and will face Green Bay’s new 3-4 defensive scheme, which features a great deal of blitzing. The could mean check downs to Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald, along with some long passes facing one on one coverage.

The Packers have rebuilt their offensive line and though talk out of Green Bay is coach Mike McCarthy is satisfied with progress, the Cards generated four sacks last week. Aaron Rodgers and the first team offense have been crisp. Last week the Pack built 24-0 halftime lead over Buffalo before cruising to 31-21 triumph. However, this is first road game which will alter dynamics. Arizona has thrived in this situation with 6-0 ATS record in Week 3 and is 9-0 against the number if off a SU loss and opponent is off double digit win.

Tim Hightower has been outstanding for Arizona, nevertheless, they didn’t pay top draft pick Beanie Wells to sit on the sidelines and be injured. Watch the total in this contest, which presently is 41 points. The Redbirds are 10-2 OVER after scoring seven points or less in the first half in two straight games and Green Bay is 8-1 OVER when playing with six or less days rest.

New England at Washington

Washington entertained the idea of chasing Jay Cutler who wanted out of Denver and gave serious consideration to drafting Mark Sanchez. Neither of those things happened and Redskins fans are starting to wonder if the Washington front office made an error in not following thru. Jason Campbell was believed to a work in progress when he was drafted and it well documented his head has been filled with new offensive schemes annually, dating back to Auburn days. Campbell is no longer a kid quarterback (27 years old) and he is 5 for 20 passing in the preseason, for a whopping 58 yards. This has to be the time he elevates his game. The Redskins are 3.5-point home underdogs, with total of 37.5 and they are 2-12 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points.

If one reads into comments made by coaches, New England could be edged this week. Coach Bill Belichick was unusually critical of his team’s 7-6 loss at home to Cincinnati as a touchdown favorite. Belichick said “We just generally had too many mistakes, too many errors in every phase of the game with every unit pretty much in every area.” It has been a different atmosphere in Patriots training camp, more hitting, longer practices and more double sessions. New England is 17-8 ATS in third game of the preseason, including 5-1 ATS since 2003. Tom Brady and his teammates might be in the mood to set an example in this contest.

Football Wagering Returns Tonight

The second week of the NFL Preseason gets underway with a pair of contests involving mostly elite teams. The headliner will be Philadelphia at Indianapolis, which is a Fox Sports telecast, with New England hosting Cincinnati in the other ballgame. This is often a solid wagering week, as coaches start to really formulate what kind of squad they will put together. Teams coming off losing efforts typically want to rebound, while clubs that won might be inclined to let up a bit and don’t give best efforts.

The Eagles are one such team that is tastier than a Philly cheesesteak in Week 2 of the preseason. Coach Andy Reid is in his 11th season in the City of Brotherly Love and doesn’t place much stock in August football. This is preparation time and his goal is to put together the most talented roster he can, with hopes of winning NFC East and returning to Super Bowl.

In the first game, Reid is reviewing as many players as possible and winning is an afterthought as six consecutive losses (0-6 ATS) prove. However, Reid isn’t foolish and has picked his spots, just like the man he worked under, Mike Holmgren did at Green Bay and Seattle. Reid has shown proclivity of wanting to win off first preseason loss and the Eagles are 7-3, with outstanding 9-0-1 ATS record this week, which includes 5-0 SU and ATS run since 2004.

Indianapolis is an established power in the AFC, yet having a new head coach does bring change. The Colts are notoriously poor preseason team, with 3-16 record and 5-13-1 ATS mark since 2005. Among the questions about Indianapolis, would new coach Jim Caldwell run a different camp than his predecessor Tony Dungy or would preparing for the regular season still be tantamount? The early answer suggests more of the same, with Colts totaling dismal 142 yards of offense last week in 13-3 loss to Minnesota. Without Jim Sorgi as backup quarterback, the fall is precipitous after Peyton Manning, with Curtis Painter and Chris Crane.

Bookmaker.com oddsmakers know these facts and have established Philadelphia as three-point road favorites with total of 36. Indianapolis is just 1-8 on home turf with 1-7-1 ATS mark; however they are 11-2 ATS after a loss by 10 or more points. The action starts at 8 Eastern and Michael Vick is not expected to even make the trip for Philly, making it less a story this week.

Thirty minutes earlier in the New England area, the Patriots welcome the Bengals. Tom Brady will look to continue his recovery process, this time in front of the home folks. The former Michigan man was 10 of 15 for 100 yards with two touchdowns and an interception and showed little rust. He’ll be matched against a Cincinnati defense not known for stopping the run or the pass.

The line on this encounter has moved significantly, with Cincy signal caller Carson Palmer unlikely to see the field after suffering a moderate high ankle sprain in 17-7 loss to New Orleans. New England opened as 4.5-point favorite and the swiftly moved to a touchdown choice. The injury means extensive playing time for backups J.T. O'Sullivan and Carson’s brother Jordan Palmer.

New England is 21-13 ATS as preseason chalk and they are 10-2 against the spread at home after one or more consecutive straight up wins under Bill Belichick. For underdog players, the most encouraging news is the Pats fit a negative system that states to play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in conference games, off a road win. Teams in this spot are 5-20 ATS, winning by 2.8 points per game.

Will Notre Dame Irish Eyes be Smiling this Autumn?

Being a Notre Dame football fan or supporter just isn’t as much fun as it used to be. Coming off regular seasons of 3-9 and 6-6 respectively, its put up or shut up time for the sometimes Fighting Irish. Will this finally be the year Charley Weis and quarterback Jimmy Clausen make Notre Dame football relevant again?

Weis might be on par with “the most interesting man in the world” who occasionally drinks Dos Equis beer, just in the gridiron sense. Weis came to South Bend as this larger than life character and sold everyone with his bravado and New Jersey tough-guy attitude. He was reported offensive genius behind the New England Patriots (until the next one came along) and was never shy about taking credit for Tom Brady’s growth and success.

Weis was 9-2 and 10-2 in his first two seasons, utilizing former coaches Bob Davie’s and Ty Willingham’s recruits as upperclassmen. In retrospect, Willingham’s firing makes more sense today, as the Irish have lacked talent from its junior and senior classes the previous two years.

Weis made a fundamental mistake to start, he should have preached patience like current president Barack Obama did on the campaign trail. That’s easier said then done with the Subway Alumni and big financial backers; however it would have gone a lot further than making promises he hasn’t kept.

Jimmy Clausen was to be the great savior, partnered with the perfect coach under the Golden Dome. This is a critical year for the junior Clausen also. His freshman season he was overwhelmed and played behind an offensive line that couldn’t keep an army of ants out of the backfield, let a lone a 300-pound defensive lineman. Clausen was much improved last season, but had several forgettable outings, like those against Boston College (0-17) and USC (3-38). Though Clausen had a spectacular game in the Hawaii Bowl, legends are not made around South Bend playing football in Hawaii on Christmas Eve.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Notre Dame at Ov8.5 win total, which doesn’t sound like BSC material, unless they change the schedule back to nine games.

Offensively, Notre Dame has a chance to really be productive. Clausen can wing the pigskin and reports have greater dedication to making better throws, plus positive signs of improved accuracy, especially on out-routes and balls thrown in seven to 15-yard range outside the tackles. Golden Tate and Michael Floyd should be heard of a great deal as receivers and sophomore Kyle Randolph has the look of the next Notre Dame tight end who will end up playing Sunday’s once his college career is complete. This group of pass catchers is arguably the best in the country.

Notre Dame could pass the 8.5 win total, if the power running game returns. The Irish have averaged sickly 110 and 75 yards per game the last two seasons. To be taken seriously, the four returning offensive linemen must play like men, with the Irish averaging at least 150 yards per game, with a stable of above average running backs.

What will determine Weis’ fate probably is something he’s not a big part of, the Notre Dame defense. Six starters return with a load of uncertainty. Three returning lettermen are in secondary, meaning only three starters in the front seven. The Fighting Irish should be better in blitzing defense in year two of defensive coordinator Jon Tenuta’s style. Though far more athletes are on the two-deep roster, many are sophomores and juniors without a great deal of experience. In many top-flight programs, that would not be an issue, however Notre Dame hasn’t been in the class of elite football programs for some time.

Jeff Makinen of StatFox isn’t convinced the Irish are on the rise until they prove it. “Notre Dame has proven to be overrated year after year. Weis is 29-21 and 23-26-1 against the spread, not coach of the year material. Clausen has gotten a large amount of publicity, with what kind of results on the field? Ron Powlus (former Irish QB) was supposed to be great; I’m seeing similarities between the two quarterbacks. I’d bet Under until you see a reason to change.”

The schedule appears to be conducive to success, at least right today. Nevada, Washington, Boston College, Navy and Connecticut should all be winnable encounters at Notre Dame Stadium. Michigan will be improved, nevertheless is about where the Irish was last season after 3-9 campaign and Purdue brings in a new coach, giving Weis two shots at road wins. Washington State is rebuilding off 2-11 season and will meet the Irish in San Antonio, as showcase for potential Texas recruits to come to northern Indiana to play football and earn an exceptional education.

If Notre Dame is truly a better team, they win those eight games, period.

Concerns start with Michigan State, who continues to get better under coach Mark Dantonio and they have won and covered six straight in South Bend. Do the Irish finally put up a fight?

November road games at Pittsburgh and Stanford could be BCS berth games. The Panthers defeated Clausen and company 36-33 in overtime last season and they will give Notre Dame full attention with a bye week to follow. Coach Weis’ crew could catch a break in season closer against Stanford, who will have played Oregon, USC and bitter rival Cal in the previous three weeks.

For many followers and detractors of the Blue and Gold, the benchmark matchup is USC. The last three games have been losses by total score of 120-27 and it could have been worse. The Trojans are on 7-0 and 6-1 ATS roll against Notre Dame, but look to be the most vulnerable in years with three starters back on defense and new assistant coaches taking over. This doesn’t mean USC is reverting back to pre-Pete Carroll days, just the slightest opportunity for Weis to regain much of his lost stature.

The season will be a success if the Irish earn BCS berth. One rung down on the acceptability scale would be 9-3, with USC upset. Anything less could mean sorry Charlie.

Best educated guess is the Irish get to nine wins and cover the Over.

NFL Quarterback Carousel

Round and round, up and down.

So goes the beloved amusement park pastime and so goes the quarterback carousel in the National Football League.

The scenario that has played out in 2008 could not have been predicted by anyone and has the signs of becoming even more complex. This is about as crazy of a game of musical quarterbacks as I've seen in my brief sportslife.

Through nine weeks of the season we’ve witnessed 46 different signal callers under center for 32 teams. There have been six permanent quarterback changes due to performance or injury and after this week, only half of the teams will still be playing with the same QB they started the season with.

You might be able to point the blame of this quarterback chaos to Kansas City Chiefs safety Bernard Pollard. He sparked this uncontrollable downward spiral after rolling into Tom Brady’s knee, effectively ending his year (and my fantasy football season) in the first quarter of Week 1.

And now Matt Cassel, who never started a game in college and was probably a better baseball prospect than football player, is attempting to lead the New England Patriots back to the Super Bowl where perfection narrowly escaped the dynasty a season ago.

The QB changes are many I have to use extreme brevity in this recap because you would grow tired of scrolling through the pages if I delved deep into the intricacies of each alteration.

I'm going to spare elaborating on teams like the Chiefs who have had 16 different quarterbacks (okay, maybe just three) and the Lions who also have a new QB, but still haven’t won a game even with the departure of the evil Matt Millen.

I won't even begin to mention how the Tennessee Titans made the right move by benching youngster Vince Young, whose commitment to football is questionable at this point, and opting for wily veteran Kerry Collins.

Vikings head man Brad Childress must have stolen a play from the Jeff Fisher quarterback school of thought as Minnesota also elected to resurrect a has-been from the brink of extinction in Gus Ferrotte, opposed to enduring another learning season from inexperienced gunslinger Tavaris Jackson.

And who could forget the Brian Griese experiment? He did throw for 407 yards after winging the ball 67 times in a win at Chicago but subsequently lost his starting job two games later to Jeff Garcia.

If I haven’t lost you already, strap into those saddles and stirrups because this ride is about to get rowdy.

The merry-go-round continues with the NFC West, which has experienced complete quarterback disarray. All four teams have encountered some form of QB controversy at one point this season. Trent “I Have A Concussion” Green got a sympathy start from the Rams former head coach Scott Linehan but current coach Jim Haslett has since reverted back to old ways with Marc Bulger at the helm.

The Seahawks went 1-3 with Matt “Bad Back” Hasselbeck to begin the season and are 1-3 without him since. That team has been decimated by injuries all over the field and you can’t expect Seneca Wallace to guide Seattle to a fifth consecutive division title. Hasselbeck is expected to return in Week 11.

How about the laughable San Francisco 49ers? They drop 24 million on a #1 overall pick in Alex Smith who has turned out to be about as good as Ryan Leaf. So they opt to go with offensive coordinator Martz’s man who came to the Bay from Detroit. But that guinea pig failed as J.T. O’Sullivan helped them to a 2-6 record and as soon as Mike Singletary replaced Nolan as the head coach, found himself standing on the sidelines. This week, Shaun Hill is preparing himself to be the most recent 49ers quarterback failure.

I have the perfect remedy for the Niners. They need to put Michael Robinson, former Penn State QB, and Frank Gore in the backfield and run the Wildcat formation every down. You even have Arnaz Battle, who was a thrower back in his days with the Irish, to set up the triple Wildcat backfield! What defense wouldn’t be confused with all the reverses, pitches, handoffs and an occasional toss to Vernon Davis?

The final portion of this NFC West shakedown involves the division leader in a pre-season QB change. Question remains, will Matt Leinhart ever live up to the expectations bestowed upon him?

Ken Wisenhunt surely isn’t sold on him as being the future of his Arizona Cardinals club. He has had three seasons to take the starting job that has essentially been shoved to him on a silver platter. But Arena Football League star turned Super Bowl MVP Kurt Warner has claimed the top spot season after season.

And Warner is ready to retire at the drop of a dime. He threw a bad pass to Anquan Boldin who got his jaw shattered and felt bad so he wanted to quit. How bad do you have to be to not snatch the starting job away from a guy who doesn’t even really want to play anymore?

I guess if you have Reggie Bush, LenDale White, Dwayne Jarrett and Steve Smith you really don’t have to be that good to win ballgames. And maybe he wasn’t, perhaps we should ask the 2005 National Champion Texas Longhorns.

Speaking of USC Heisman Trophy winners, this should have been the year that Carson Palmer was talked about in the same breath as Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Brett Favre. But that may never happen.

Palmer put together a stellar season in 2005 and showed glimpses of greatness, but ever since that knee injury has been nothing but disappointing. Now he needs Tommy John surgery? Isn’t that a surgical procedure for baseball players? Regardless, Ryan Fitzpatrick is slinging it around in Cincy and that should hint to someone that the team needs a complete overhaul.

So the Houston Texans finally found their man huh? Snatched Matt Schaub away from the Falcons, just before the Vickster gets indicted on dog fighting charges, to replace David Carr. Who I have to say was the beneficiary of a good college team and system…ahem…Alex Smith.

But now Schaub is out 2-4 weeks with a sprained MCL and “Pinch of Sage” Rosenfels will get a second opportunity to prove his worth. He suited up against the Colts in Week 5 and nearly had a stranglehold on the starting gig but threw a pick-six and fumbled away two balls to allow Indy to overcome a 17-point fourth quarter deficit.

Our pinkie finger is probably the most expendable appendage we have. But to Tony Romo and the Cowboys it is worth its weight in gold. Seriously though, a pinkie? I pick my nose with my pinkie finger, and that’s about all it is good for. You should be able to throw a football with a bum pinkie.

No matter, the ‘Boys are 1-2 without their savior and his second coming may be too late. They sit at the bottom of the NFC East standings with a 5-4 record and have a brutal schedule left after their bye week, starting with a date in Washington against the ‘Skins.

The most recent changing of the guard happened in our first NFL Network Thursday night matchup. Four-year pro Derek Anderson might have splintered his booty squirming around on the bench having to watch pretty-boy Brady Quinn get the nod after starting 23 straight contests.

Anderson just hadn’t appeared to have been able to put up to the lofty numbers he did a season ago (29 TDs, 3700+ yards), but maybe if Braylon Edwards could catch a pass or Kellen Winslow actually tried to run a route he could have kept his job.

And I’m sure his uneasiness didn’t subside after the kid went 23-35 with 239 yards and a couple of touchies. Well, at least Kellen Winslow was still dropping passes and fumbling balls. That guy needs to take a seat in the corner and put on the dunce hat or he is about to REALLY start pissing some people off.

There looks to be another QB swap on the horizon as well, but most likely a temporary one. We never heard the end of “Rex is our quarterback” from Chicago coach Lovie Smith in 2007. And then Da Bears roll into 2008 with the “Kyle is our quarterback” campaign plastered all over the walls.

This worked out pretty well until Orton went down with a high ankle sprain last weekend. And now we will get to see how disgusting Grossman can look against the mighty Titans defense. He was able to mount a comeback in last week’s game, throwing for a score and running in another, but this test won’t be against the hapless Detroit Lions.

As long as quarterbacks in the NFL keep underachieving and getting injured, we’ll keep pumping tokens into this carousel.


Scott Cooley is a free-lance writer and chimes in from time to time at 3Daily Winners.