MLB Series Wagering- Yankees at Rays

With the summer slipping into August this weekend, the baseball pennant races start to take shape with more meaningful games over the next two months. What better way to start building the momentum than with the two best teams in baseball. The first place New York Yankees (65-36, +7.8 units) head south to visit Tampa Bay (63-38, +6.5), who trails by two games in the loss column.

The atmosphere should be electric with all three games sold out and for New York; they have other side bar stories. This is the Yankees first team visit since the passing of George Steinbrenner who resided in Tampa. Alex Rodriguez will continue his elusive quest for home run No. 600. When asked if he feels pressure after failing to connect for a long ball in seven straight games, A-Rod answered this way. “We’re winning, so this is fun,” Rodriguez said. “I’m focusing on something more important: a pennant race.”

The Rays picked the right time to get hot having won six in a row and a continuation of such play would jettison them into first place by the end of the weekend. “I’m sure there’s going to be a vibe,” Tampa Bay manager Joe Maddon said. “They’re playing well. We’re playing well. It’s going to be interesting. I know we’re going to be excited to play.”

The pitching matchup has two young hurlers. Phil Hughes (12-3, 4.04 ERA), after a brilliant start has had rocky moments of late, being tagged for five runs or more in three of previous five starts. Location has been Hughes downfall and the Yankees are only 14-16 (-11.5 Units) against the money line with an on-base percentage of .360 or better over their last 15 games. Online sports betting outlets have New York as -107 ML wager, as the Yankees seem to thrive against top notch competition with a 12-3 record in road games when playing against teams with a 62% or higher win percentage in the second half of the season.

Tampa Bay is 100-48 in home games against right-handed starters the past three seasons and sends Wade Davis (8-9, 4.32) up the hill. Davis has gotten in a nice groove with three consecutive victories and 2.11 ERA. “Every series is important, but this is a big series for us to go out and win some games against them to stay up there with them,” Davis told the Rays’ official website. “If we can do that, then we’ll be in a good situation.” The right-hander is 1-1 with a 4.63 ERA in two starts against New York this year and A-Rod has two jacks off of him.

Game 1 Edge: New York

The Rays are hoping outfielders B.J. Upton and Ben Zobrist are close to 100 percent after missing time this week with sprained ankle and lower back stiffness respectively, getting ready for New York. The second game of the series will also feature Matt “no-hitter” Garza (11-5. 4.08), who faced the minimum 27 batters (one walk) his last time out. Garza was able to work effectively up in the strike zone against depleted Detroit lineup. Tampa Bay is 8-2 in Garza’s starts at Tropicana Field, where they have won 10 of 11 coming into the series.

The Bronx Bombers arrive in St. Pete’s having won eight of 11 and have split eight meetings with the Rays. Manager Joe Girardi’s club began the series 31-20 in the visiting gray uniforms, thanks to being victorious in 16 of last 21 contests. Javier Vazquez (9-7, 4.54) started the season on shaky ground, but has since stabilized with 8-3 mark and 3.16 ERA. The Yanks are 36-16 in last 52 and have won four of last five Vazquez road starts. The Yankees right-hander is 5-5 (4.71) in last 10 starting assignments against Tampa Bay, with Carl Crawford batting .368 against him since 2006. Garza is 1-3 (3.26) vs New York and A-Rod (.467) and Nick Swisher (.500) have been the most troublesome batters he faces from that lineup.

Game 2 Edge: Tampa Bay

The series finale from the Trop has C.C. Sabathia (13-4, 3.15) on a major roll. The big left-hander is 8-1 with 2.10 ERA in last 10 outings and is 14-4 in August of late. He’s been tough all year on right-hand hitters, as they are batting only .234 against him. New York plays great all the time including during the day, with 25-12 record as they prepare for this TBS 1:30 Eastern tilt.

Tampa Bay will start James Shields (9-9, 4.79) who also possess quality August numbers with a 12-6 record. Shields has to start missing more bats, with opponents hitting .281 against him (.266 lifetime) and he is on career path for home runs allowed, already being taken deep 22 times. The Rays are equally effective in day games with 20-10 record and are 11-9 to commence the weekend as underdogs.

Game 3 Edge: New York

New York has won 26 of last 44 conflicts between these teams and is 12-9 at the Trop the past three years. Both teams are at the top of their games, both respecting, but do not fearing the other, which makes for fascinating series.

I’ve hit five straight weekend series wagers and though I’d like to see Tampa Bay win, I’m betting New York and here is why. Sometime next season I’ll write an article about this, but the Rays have double digit hits just once in past seven tries, which has me believing they are living off of great pitching. New York can match Tampa Bay in this area and shutdown their attack. Coincidently, the Yankees have nine or more base knocks in seven of previous nine games, suggesting they will score more runs and takes the series.

Sportsbooks series odds: New York -120, Tampa Bay -110

3Daily Winners Pick: New York

MLB Series Wagering- Rays at Rangers

In American League action, it’s a battle of two division leaders this upcoming weekend for a three-game series. Before the season began, you probably could have made some cash saying on the first weekend of June, you predict the Tampa Bay and Texas would be in first place in their respective divisions, yet that is exactly what has happened. Though the season still has four months left, this is meaning confrontation in the pecking order of the American League.

Neither club enters this series playing their best baseball of the season. Tampa Bay (36-18, +7.9 units) is 4-6 in last 10 games, with the pitching sputtering in allowing 4.9 runs per contest. Manager Joe Maddon has gotten the scouting reports and knows the Rangers are for real.

“They got better,” Maddon told MLB.com. “They’ve really pitched well against us. I think they’re pitching substantially better. And you’ve got Vladimir (Guerrero) playing like he did a couple of years ago right now. And that’s definitely going to make them a better ballclub.”

Texas (28-25, -1) has fallen off their saddle seven of the last 10 outings and seen their lead over Oakland dwindle to zilch; leading the A’s by one percentage point in the AL West standings. What has caused the slide for the Rangers is an inconsistent offense, totaling 26 runs in the three victories and 20 runs in the seven defeats.

In trying to figure out what to expect, both teams are playing from a position of strength. The Rays are marvelous 21-6 on the road and Texas is 18-9 at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington.

Tampa Bay won 7-3 at Toronto on Wednesday and is 16-3 in road games after a win this season and will start Wade Davis (5-4, 4.04 ERA) who has permitted more than three runs only three times in his 10 starts. The 24-year old has needed relief help, pitching more than six innings just twice.

Sportsbooks have Texas as -130 money line favorites behind left-hander C.J. Wilson (3-3, 3.48). After an impressive beginning, Wilson is 0-2 with a 9.56 ERA in his past three starts and will have to do his part for his club to improve on 14-3 record vs. AL teams allowing 3.7 or less runs per contest. The converted reliever has posted a 1.35 ERA against Tampa Bay in 13 appearances out of the bullpen, however the Rays are 17-6 vs. lefty’s this year.

Game 1 Edge: Tampa Bay

Saturday’s matchup is a FOX regional afternoon telecast. Tampa was 3-6 and just 1-5 at Arlington last season and will look for quick reversal of fortune. The Rays starting pitchers didn’t handle the smallish dimensions of the Rangers ball-yard, allowing better than a run per inning in the 28 they threw in 2009. James Shields (5-3, 3.62) will seek to change this direction for his team. The right-hander has almost a 5-to-1 strikeout to walk ratio, however, working the plate as well as he does leaves him to susceptible to the long ball and he has given up 11 (third most in AL) home runs.

Tommy Hunter was supposed to be part of the Texas rotation from opening day after last year’s 9-6 campaign with a 4.10 ERA. Hunter strained a muscle in his left ribcage in Arizona in March and has made six starts at Triple-A Oklahoma City before being recalled (1-2, 4.05). The Rangers won six of his eight home starts a year ago, but are only 7-19 on Saturday’s.

Watch the line carefully on this contest with the Rays 9-1 coming into the series when the money line is +125 to -125. Shields has not pitched since last Saturday and is 5-0 with five days rest.

Game 2 Edge: Tampa Bay

Rich Harden (3-1) will pitch the finale for Texas and he’s brought his club luck, as they have won eight of his 11 starts in spite of 5.33 ERA. Normally when the right-hander has problems, its loss of command and walks too many batters, with low hit totals. That has not been the case in Rangers uniform, as Harden has been wild enough to concede 37 base on balls in 54 innings, but also has been touched for 55 hits.

Watching Matt Garza (5-4, 3.08) pitch, the feeling is something is missing. You witness the mid-90’s fastball that can saw off a bat like beaver and has curve and slider that can freeze hitters. Despite the obvious ability, he is 24-25 in a Rays’ uniform for his career, not always having the right mental makeup when he doesn’t have his A-Game. Against Texas, Garza is 3-3, however is 1-3 with a 5.96 ERA at Arlington.

Game 3 Edge: Texas

Both teams have started to swing the bats better the last few contests, which could lead to totals plays on the Over in the series. The Rays are the better overall team and they can negate the Texas home field edge with how outstanding they have played on the road. This is not a walkover by any means and I’ll throw support to Tampa Bay, but only by the slimmest of margins.

Sports Betting Series odds: Tampa Bay -145, Texas +115

3Daily Winners Pick: Tampa Bay

2010 Record – 3-5

It's a late Monday of action

We’ve certainly hit a disappointing stretch on our plays and our record has fallen. Since April 10, we are still very solid 180-130-3, 58 percent but very disappointed by recent results. Let’s hope today starts to turn this around starting with 80 percent System. We found a perfect Trend on the totals side and the Left Coast Connection is 100 percent behind an American League team. Good Luck

What I realized today- It takes a long time to set up new computer.

Now on Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST all underdogs like Cincinnati with a money line of +100 to +150 with a lousy starting pitcher- ERA of 6.50 over his last 10 starts, with an on-base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games. Since 2005, this system is 40-10, 80 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Matt Garza and Tampa Bay are 10-0 UNDER in road games this season, with average total being 6.6 runs per game.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Seven LLC members are on Chicago White Sox with nary a detractor.

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MLB Series Wagering- Tampa Bay at Kansas City

The Tampa Bay Rays start the second half of the season believing they can play much better baseball then they did most of the first half of the year. The Rays (48-41, -0.7 units) trail the New York Yankees by four losses in the wild card chase and Boston by seven for the AL East division lead. In some ways, Tampa Bay feels fortunate they are still within reach of the postseason after floundering at or below .500 for the first two months of the season. "We didn't play nearly our best baseball," Rays manager Joe Maddon said. "We did at times, but a little bit too streaky."

One area that needs immediate shoring up is Tampa’s play on the road. They Rays are 18-26 (-7.8) and the skipper thinks his team is capable of turning this around. “We just have to get out there in the second half. We have to take advantage and not make the same kinds of mistakes that put us in a bind in the first half. We're capable of that. We're capable of playing a higher level of baseball on a more consistent basis." Maddon said.

Kansas City (37-51, -13.9 units) starts the second half having lost five of six and in search of winning formula from last September that fueled this season’s optimism. The Royals first order of business is finding ways to score more runs. Kansas City ranks 28th in runs scored at 3.9 per game and hopes Alex Gordon can provide offensive punch coming off of hip surgery.

After bouncing back and forth, Royals manager Trey Hillman has decided on Brian Bannister (6-7, 3.66) as his opening game starter. Bannister is off arguably the best game of his career, throwing seven shutout innings at Boston before tiring slightly in allowing one run on three hits in over 7 2/3 in 3-1 triumph. Coming into the series, Kansas City had won only three of last dozen contests at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals are 4-1 in Bannister’s home starts against winning teams, but 7-20 in night games over the last two seasons when he’s been called upon (Royals Record). The Royals are +130 money line home underdog at DiamondSportsbook.com, with total Un8.5. The Royals are 18-6 UNDER in the second half of the season.

Tampa Bay will counter with James Shields (6-6, 3.42), who is 2-4 on the road, with the Rays winners only twice in his eight starts as visitor. The Rays are off a pair of losses, but have enjoyed great success on Friday’s with 29-11 mark. Shields’ has liked the look of Royals uniform and is 5-0 with a 2.50 ERA in five career starts against Kansas City. He’s averaged nearly a strikeout per inning against K.C. (32) in the 36 innings he’s worked, while allowing just three free passes. The Rays are 14-3 UNDER July in road games since last year.

Game 1 Edge: Tampa Bay

Because of the shifting of Royals rotation, ace Zack Greinke (10-5, 2.12 ERA) only pitched one inning in the All-Star game, will start Game 2. Greinke hasn’t been quite as effective as he was early in the season, when he was un-hittable and has lost his last two starts, though the 3-1 loss the last time out was in part due to shabby K.C. defense. Historically, the Royals and Greinke don’t do as well if he pitches the middle game of series, showing a dismal 12-30 record.

Only staunch baseball bettors might know this, Tampa Bay’s offense ranks third in baseball at 5.3 runs per game. Besides pounding out 9.3 hits per game on average, the former Devil Rays have newfound patience as the dish, walking 4.1 times per game, which is third best in baseball, just behind the Yankees and Red Sox. The former masthead of the Rays staff, Scott Kazmir (4-5, 7.11) will take the ball for middle encounter. Since being injured, the lefthander has not been effective, but at least pain-free. Having last won on May 9, Kazmir hopes pitching in a Game 2 situation will turn luck around since he and his teammates are 22-5 in that spot.

Game 2 Edge: Kansas City

The series finale will be afternoon affair. The Rays are 16-13 playing in the light of day, with Kansas City unsightly 12-19. Matt Garza (6-7, 3.73) is one of the American League’s biggest enigmas. Only a handful of hurlers have his stuff, yet he finds a way to have one bad inning and has losing record. He’s 0-4 with 4.02 ERA against K.C. The Royals will send Luke Hochevar (5-3, 5.34) to toe the slap. Since returning in early June for stint in minors, Hochevar has pitched up to his capabilities, with 5-1 record and 3.97 ERA. Besides the quality record, he’s been innings-eater with six of last seven starts lasting as least six innings.

Game 3 Edge: Kansas City

Thought this was a good week to change it up and go with a few teams that don’t receive much of the acclaim. The matchup is very close, but Tampa Bay has poor road record and two of its starters in this series are fumbling along, not pitching well. Similar to a thin slice of pastrami, I’ll support the Royals by the slimmest of margins.

DiamondSportsbook.com series odds: Tampa Bay -125, Kansas City -105

3DW Pick: Kansas City

Tampa Bay Rays looking for resurgence

The last time Boston and Tampa Bay met it was magnificent moment for the Rays, as a 3-1 Game 7 victory set off pandemonium on the streets of west Florida. The old expression of “that was then and this is now” applies directly as the teams reconvene at Tropicana Field on Thursday for a four game series.

Since winning two of three in Boston to start the season, the defending American League champions have lost six straight series to fall to 8-14. Tampa Bay manager Joe Maddon has been around baseball a long time and knows these things happen.

“We are not pleased with what's going on,” Maddon said. "We should have been able to win more than one series to this point. But it’s early. It truly is early and I’m very optimistic that we can turn this around.”

"Right now it's just not working. It's a part of the baseball season. Everybody goes through those bad moments. Ours happens to be at the beginning. It's a little bit more glaring. If it happens at the beginning of the year, it's a bad start. If it happens in the middle, you're in a slump. And if it happens at the end, you choke. So right now we're off to a bad start."

If last year brought new and different emotions into the Tampa Bay clubhouse, than certainly having to play with expectations brings another completely new set of circumstances to the Rays players.

Every game right now feels like it's really important for us," utility player Ben Zobrist said. "We need to stop thinking about wins and losses, and think more about playing good baseball. We have such a good team that if we keep focusing on doing the little things right, we're going to win ballgames. We're looking a little bit ahead of ourselves at the overall picture."

The Rays offense could use a few bats to get hot. In the team’s 14 losses, only once have they managed to score four runs, all others have fallen below that level. Based primarily on last season, Tampa Bay (-7.7 units) is 21-8 after scoring three runs or less two straight games over the last two seasons.

Boston (14-7, +4.6) on the other hand is brimming with confidence. They had their 11-game winning streak snapped Tuesday and trailed 5-0 yesterday, but as quality and confident teams do, they kept plugging away. The Red Sox scored five unanswered runs to tie Cleveland and pushed one across in the 10th inning to win the game 6-5 for their 12th win in 13 tries.

“That was a good win,” Red Sox manager Terry Francona said. “I think I’m probably understating it a little bit.” The Boston bullpen was again the story in shutting down the Tribe and they are 69-31 with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 2.00 the last five games.

The opener has very good pitching matchup with Josh Beckett (2-1, 6.00 ERA, 1.625 WHIP) taking on Matt Garza (1-2, 4.97, 1.302). Beckett was rocked by the Yankees in his last start giving up 10 hits and eight runs over five innings. He and the Red Sox will bring 9-3 mark against teams with losing records. Garza is emotional person, which has prevented him from taking the next step to being elite pitcher. In his four starts this season, he’s either been on or been off. The 25-year old has great stuff, but like any pitcher, it’s not going to be there each time out and has to learn to control inner demons and win without best stuff. Garza likes to see the Red Sox uniforms, posting 4-1 record with a 3.40 ERA in seven career starts, which includes a win this season.

Bookmaker.com has the red-hot Red Sox as -115 money line favorites with total at Un9. Boston is only 9-13 at the Trop the last couple of years and 4-13 in all domed stadiums. They are 14-5 OVER in road games vs. a starting pitcher whose strikes out five or more batters per start. Though Tampa Bay is 64-32 at home, they are just 2-11 when the money line is +125 to -125 this season. The Rays are 12-2 UNDER as a home underdog of +100 or higher.

These two AL East rivals have a history, making anything possible. First pitch is scheduled for 7:08 Eastern on NESN and SUN, with Boston 11-2 on the road playing on Thursday’s.

Three MLB plays for Tuesday

Officially taking a 1-1-1 Monday, as the Charlotte game was +4 all day until about an hour before game time, giving us 5-3-1 record the last three days. The Left Coast Connection either loves the way the Royals are playing or can’t stand Cleveland and Carl Pavano for today’s Free Play. Rays pitcher Matt Garza is involved in the Top Trend and we have out first really juicy MLB system that is 22-2. Good Luck.

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY ON home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175, allowing 5.2 or more runs a game on the season in the American League, after allowing eight runs or more. Over the last three years, this system is flat-out astonishing at 22-2, 91.6 percent. The qualifying team is the Texas Rangers.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Matt Garza of Tampa Bay is 2-9 against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last two seasons.

Free Baseball Selection -3) The LCC has nine bettors on the Kansas City Royals tonight.

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