May's Best -Worst MLB Starters

With Super Saver winning the Kentucky Derby, this signals MLB enters its second month of play. And with it a handful of surprise teams take center stage. The key to sustaining success, or lack of it, comes from the pitching staffs. With that thought in mind, Marc Lawrence of Playbook.com zero in on pitchers that will look to keep their team in the race and those that may pull up before they hit the wire.

Listed below are hurlers that have enjoyed a two-to-one or better success ratio in team starts the last three seasons during the month of May. On the flip side, we’ve also listed pitchers that struggle in May team starts, winning 33% percent or less of their efforts. To qualify pitchers must have made a minimum of 10 starts, with at least one start each May over the last three years.

GOOD MONTH PITCHERS:

Beckett, Josh • 12-3
After a slow start, Beckett threw seven strong innings, allowing two runs on six hits and most importantly for him had 6-0 strikeout-to-walk ratio in Baltimore on May 2, which is about how he normally pitches this month.



Carmona, Fausto • 10-5
Since his breakout season of 2007, Carmona has struggled with mechanics, but has been more consistent in 2010. If he keeps the walks down, he should again have a good month even on a so-so club.
Hamels, Cole • 14-3
The left-hander has allowed too many meaty pitches in the hitting zone, (35 hits in 30.2 innings). Let’s see if the warmer weather helps Hamels get a better feel for curve and changeup.
Kazmir, Scott • 10-5
The last few seasons of arm miseries has robbed Kazmir of some velocity. For him to pitch at previous levels, he has to more consistent in the strike zone and pitch deeper into games, with six innings high water mark thus far. He could make marked improvement however this month, since he has 19 K’s in 21 innings in 2010.
Lilly, Ted • 12-6
The soft-tossing lefty has had one good and one bad outing in his return from the DL. In his second start, he lacked the usual bite on his breaking stuff and got racked. May is usually a solid month from Lilly, expect him to come thru.
Padilla, Vicente • 11-4
Vicente Padilla's right-elbow soreness should keep him out until at least the end of May, manager Joe Torre said Sunday. "He's better, he's feeling better, but not having thrown for a while, I don't see him helping us this month," Torre said. "That's not anything, I think, unusual."
Perez, Oliver • 8-4
Off their recent eight-game winning streak, the Mets could use Perez to have another good May to help their cause. Ability-wise Perez is a No.2-3 starter, but he too often can’t find the plate (14 walks in 20.2 innings this year). Certainly capable of big month.
Santana, Johan • 11-5
Santana’s first start of May was forgettable, being rocked by the Phillies. That however is not the norm and it is wiser to presume he bounces back to form and wins a number of games with normal run support.
Wellemeyer, Todd • 9-4
He’s the fifth starter on a deep staff in San Francisco. His early results have been below average, with but a couple of off days early in the month, Wellemeyer came out of the bullpen on May 2 and allowed no runs in three innings. Maybe this helps turn him around for May.

BAD MONTH PITCHERS:

Davis, Doug • 4-10
Milwaukee took a flyer on Davis hoping he could at least be .500 pitcher. To date 8.87 ERA with no wins and has permitted 38 base bits in just 22.1 innings, ugh!
Lohse, Kyle • 5-11
Another reclamation project for the Cardinals brilliant pitching coach Dave Duncan. Doesn’t hit the 90’s much anymore with fastball, but Duncan has him using two-seam fastball which he sinks. When his slider and curve are not working, will get tattooed.
Meche, Gil • 6-12
Was supposed to be the ace in Kansas City coming over from Seattle and has been anything but. Meche has 10.13 ERA this season and he usually pitches worse in May, yikes!
Silva, Carlos • 3-10
Essentially innings-eater most of his career. Has started well with the Cubs (2-0, 2.90 ERA) thanks to having control (21 K’s-6W’s). History doesn’t suggest he will keep it up.

Doug Upstone of 3DailyWinners contributed to this article.

Baseball Series Wagering - Mets at Phillies

The New York Mets are doing EVERYTHING right. New York has flown to the top of East Division standings on the strength of seven straight wins. The Mets pitching staff has been imperious, allowing 13 runs in this stretch, which includes hanging all zeros on two occasions. After a slow start, New York’s offense is averaging five runs per game and manager Jerry Manuel hasn’t made a miscue, as his team completed 9-1 homestand, its best since September of 1988.

The Mets (13-9, +3.6 units) take their act on the road to a Philadelphia, who has ruled the NL East for the last few years. The Phillies ( 12-9, -0.8) are back home after 4-5 road trip and has misfiring offense that has averaged 3.3 runs per contest the last two weeks. “We’ll take the positives away and go home,” right fielder Jayson Werth said. “We’ve got a lot of baseball left to play so we’ve got to keep doing what we’re doing.”

The Mets are third in baseball in runs permitted at 3.3 per contest and start Jon Niese (0-1, 3.68 ERA) who has received limited run support (total of 10) in his four starts. Niese has loose body with easy motion, but leaves too many pitches in the hitting zone, accounting for 30 hits in 22 innings. Against good pitching clubs, Philly has feasted (5.3 RPG) with 68-36 record vs. NL teams allowing 4.3 or less runs a game over the last three seasons.

The Phils counter with Kyle Kendrick (0-0, 7.71) in the series opener whose most notable trait this season is inconsistency. "The first month of the season hasn't been very good [for me]," said Kendrick. "I've been pretty erratic. ... I've had some good spots and some bad ones. I'll just have to keep working on it." Kendrick and the Phillies are 20-3 OVER after a win, with New York 16-42 in road games vs. clubs who strand 7.5 or more runners on base a contest.

Philadelphia is a -145 money line favorite at Sportsbook.com with total Ov10.5. This is expected to be Kendrick’s last start with Joe Blanton possibly activated from disabled list this weekend from injury. Kendrick is 2-1 with a 2.63 ERA in five starts against the Mets.

Game 1 Edge: New York

Also coming off the DL is closer Brad Lidge, who has been an adventure since 2008 when he converted all 48 saves. Last year he led the big leagues with 11 blown saves and has contributed to his team’s 55.6 percent save percentage in 2010. New York is 9-1 against bullpens that blows 38 percent or more of their save opportunities this season, but first they have to hit well enough against Roy Halladay (4-1, 1.80) to get that far.

Halladay proved he isn’t “Iron Man”, conceding 10 hits and five runs in seven innings at San Francisco Monday, suffering his first loss of the season. This will be Halladay’s first taste of this NL East rivalry. The Phillies have lost eight of last 10 Saturday’s encounters.

The Metropolitans will start one of the hottest pitchers in the National League in Mike Pelphrey (4-0, 0.69). The tall right-hander has not allowed a run in 24 innings thanks to darting fastball and new cutter, which he has spotted precisely. Pelphrey is a 4-2 record and 4.82 ERA in nine starts against Philadelphia; however has 7.17 ERA at Citizens Bank Park. Though he only gives up a home run once every 13.6 innings, Chase Utley has tagged four times. New York is 2-6 as visitors with Pelphrey the starter.

This is part of FOX’s Saturday afternoon MLB coverage.

Game 2 Edge: Philadelphia

Ryan Howard broke the longest homerless drought of his career - a span of 65 at-bats - this past Wednesday and will take his rips against Johan Santana (3-1, 2.08). The lefthander’s fastball isn’t as what it was when he was in Minnesota (down about three MPH according to radar guns), nonetheless Santana has become more resourceful in blending other pitches and hitting different spots to keep hitters off-balance, while still maintaining his out-pitch, the dastardly changeup. To date, lefty batters are at the Mendoza line (.200) and right-hand hitters are at .232 against his pitches.

Ageless Jamie Moyer (2-2, 5.25) could be a father to some of his teammates at 47 years old. Though most guys his age that played the game are pitching coaches somewhere, Moyer continue to defy the odds, with left-handers swingers batting .214 against him. Look for New York to load up with players in the right side of the batter’s box, as they see Moyer’s soft tosses much better and are hitting .306 against him.

This will be the ESPN Sunday Night contest.

Game 3 Edge: New York

Professional bettor, sometimes writer and fulltime smart-aleck Red Wydley provided this week’s series pick.

“The Mets aren’t as good as they’re playing and the Phillies are better than they’ve played. The first game sets the tone, since any reasonable bettor is not going to bet against Halladay or Santana unless they are hoping for a long shot like Homeboykris at the Derby (50-1).

New York lost 12 of 18 to Philadelphia last year and has the momentum to turn the tables. The sample is small but the Phillies are 1-3 against lefties to begin the season, batting .221 and if Niese keeps the ball in the park, the Mets can win the first game. Kendrick had yet another chance to be more than a reliever and blew it with more lousy command (9 W’s and K’s) and dishing out more hits than the Jonas brothers.

I’ll bet the Mets winning streak reaches eight and they win the series and maintain first place lead, for now.”

Series odds: New York +130, Philadelphia -160

3Daily Winners Pick: New York

2010 Record – 2-1

Earth Day Plays -Going Green we hope

Didn’t sniff 4-0; however 3-1 will do as we move ahead. Steve of the LCC posts what he believes is another MLB winner. The Top Trend is reverse perfect and the Best System is 80.4 percent. Good Luck

What I learned today- A strong betting connection of mine made astute observation that the winner of the NBA playoff games can be made by the end of the first quarter thus far.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) Play Against road teams like Texas with as below average AL hitting team (.265 or less) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA of 3.75 or less), batting .200 or worse over their last five games. This system checks in at 41-10, 80.4 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Houston and Felipe Paulino 0-10 against teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Steve got us another winner and is betting Johan Santana will stop the Cubs.

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In a hurry on a Thursday

It has been awhile since we had back to back losing days, but were not worried, as our track record has been outstanding for months. All plays are in the afternoon starting with an 83.1 percent System in Chi-town. The Top Trend is in Crap Cake land and is 7-0 and Kyle still likes a certain from in the Big Apple even after in rains. Good Luck

What I saw yesterday - I was flipping channels last night and came across Wayne Allen Root on Sean Hannity on Fox. You won't ever here me talk politics (I prefer to make fun of both parties) but I wanted to hear what one of the better all-time handicapping scammers had to say. Root for those that don't know is part of the Libertarian party now, as a disgruntled Bush Republican. Hannity had one of his Fox cronies and a Obama apologist, along with Root on panel. It was humorous to watch Hannity and the others either ignore or dismiss anything the now gray-haired WAR had to say. Though he gave the appearance of confidence, he was looked down upon by these political pundits. I know he wants to win some political office, but it seems Root should stick to making false claims and beefing up his (handicapping) record, just like a politician.

Now on Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs like Houston, with a money line of +175 to +250, after allowing 10 runs or more. Since 2005, 98 winners and only 20 losers.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Bradley Bergesen and Baltimore are 7-0 as home favorites of -150 or less.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Kyle picked up two other winners last night and still likes the Mets in Game 1 with Johan Santana.

New StatFox Football Annual on Sale – A must for Every Sports Bettor

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Wagering on Quality Pitchers after poor outing

We have all been there as sports bettors, an attractive wager has been made on the team ace and he’s shelled and gone by the fourth inning, causing wagering accounts to decline. You understand as baseball bettor, the good pitchers are going to get beat, but when they are battered like the heavy bag at the gym, that is more gut-wrenching. After taking such a loss, is it a good or bad idea to follow up with that same pitcher in his next start?

The first order of business was to determine what makes a quality pitcher in 2009 and decided a minimum of 10 starts had to be made, with a personal winning percentage of 60 percent or higher. This pitcher had to be active or not injured, since it would do us no good to follow somebody who wasn’t pitching to begin with.

A bad outing was determined to be five or more earned runs in a single start. There were a couple of instances where particular hurlers fit the criteria in surrendering five or more runs with one or zero being earned. The argument becomes where to draw the line, thus settled on five earned and disregarded everything else.

Of course many of the names are quite familiar, like a who’s-who in baseball with Tim Lincecum, Josh Beckett, Roy Halladay, Johan Santana and Felix Hernandez to name a few all making the list. As always, confounding pitchers have big years out of nowhere. A Matt Palmer from the Angels, Tim Wakefield, Matt Cain, Scott Feldman and Kevin Slowey all pop up unexpectedly. Even discarded Jason Marquis, who is baseball’s first 12-game winner, finds a home in Colorado of all places.

In trying to learn how top notch hurlers would pitch after being cuffed around, the categories were broken down into favorites, underdogs and pick, with the end result of the game, not the pitchers record what we were seeking.

When a pitcher is tattooed (possibly poor word choice in today’s world) and favored in next game, his record is well above average, but not a great help to the sports bettors. The pitcher’s team is 33-21, 61.1 percent, not bad, however not the best bet one could find at +3.9 units of profit.

How would a capable thrower of the horsehide do when the game could go either way with a money line of -105? It turned out to be about as expected with 6-5 record and squeaking out a slight profit.

Where the real money can be found, is when this pummeled pitcher takes the mound as an underdog in next start. Most baseball players could tell you the spread of a football game or even basketball contest before they would know the money line on a game they were playing. In many cases, the pitcher is likely to know he has to bare-down more off a substandard outing and would have a sense what his team needs based on opposing team and opposition pitcher.

In this spot the underdog chucker is 19-9, 67.8 percent and baseball bettors pick up a sweet +16.35 units.

When you add all the numbers together, the total arrives at 58-35, +21 units. The 62.3 percent winning percentage is nothing special, which is not that far above the minimum requirement.

Nevertheless, place our roughed up delivery man in the miscast role of underdog and watch him deliver a profit worth crowing about.

3DW Baseball Betting Beat

The three things you can count on in life are death, taxes and change. In each case, how we react to them helps sculpt our lives. In baseball, one aspect that has changed dramatically is pitchers willingness to throw inside. There are reasons this has occurred. Starting when a pitcher tries to throw inside and misses, he could either hit a batter hanging over the inside part of the plate or throw room-service pitch that is launched over the fence. Pitching away plays to the batters weakness, making him chase and swing unnaturally at outside pitches.

The problem with this style or mentality of pitching is batters have no fear. Take the Los Angeles Angels pitching staff. Only the Toronto Blue Jays have been even close to suffering as much bad luck to the staff as the Angels. To start the season, John Lackey, Ervin Santana and Kelvim Escobar started on the disabled list. Lackey and Santana have returned, with neither pitching like they have in the past. Escobar gave it try, but whispers out of Anaheim have many wondering if his career is threatened. Dustin Moseley was supposed to step in and he too ended up on the DL and Nick Adenhart was tragically killed.

The Angels were forced to look anywhere for healthy bodies to pitch, which has contributed to them being 26th in runs allowed at five per game.

The departure of Francisco Rodriguez set off a change of events to the bullpen. Brian Fuentes was brought in to be the closer and looked like a batting practice pitcher for almost eight weeks, with an ERA of almost eight at his lowest point. Scott Shields was always Mr. Durability, until his plant leg and knee gave out, requiring season-ending knee surgery. Supposed closer in the making Jose Arredondo is now in Triple-A trying to get back in groove, while fighting elbow issues.

This has left manager Mike Scioscia and pitching coach Mike Butcher with a huge dilemma almost every night. The Los Angeles bullpen is 28th in ERA, with opposing batters hitting a blistering .278 against them.

Part of the problem besides command, is lack of knowledge or ability to own the inside part of the plate. Texas Ranger and nearly washed up Andruw Jones hit four home runs in last two games against the Angels and was never threatened with inside pitch. The Rangers hit five home runs in Game 3 to take the series. Wouldn’t you think one Angels’ pitcher would have been peeved and drilled somebody? Nope. They just took it and start Friday’s action in second place, behind Texas.

The easy excuse is “that’s not how the game is played anymore” Really? Do you think Roy Halladay, Josh Beckett, Zack Greinke, Tim Lincecum, Johan Santana and Justin Verlander to name a few, just work the outside black of the plate? Of course not. Each pitcher effectively works both sides of the plate and is unafraid to come-up-and-in to move a batter who looks a little too comfortable in the box.

Unless the Angels suddenly turn into the 1927 Yankees, it’s very difficult to place a wager on them on a consistent basis, since no lead is safe and even when they do lose, the pitchers are only too happy to just accept it and move on to next game.

Don’t know if you saw this the other day, but it is EXTREMELY simple to determine what is wrong with the Cleveland Indians this season. On average, they have allowed almost 14 opposing players per game to reach bases (13.6) when combining hits and walks. This is the highest number in baseball (Yes, even Washington is better), no wonder they have lost -22.7 units, despite scoring over five runs per game.

Dan Haren of Arizona is going to the All-Star; however he hasn’t received near the notoriety he deserves for his season’s work. His record is respectable 8-5, with the Diamondbacks 10-7 for -0.2 units in his 17 starts. Consider Haren has allowed more than three earned runs just once this season. (May 23 against his former team Oakland) A total of 14 times he has pitched a minimum of six innings and surrendered two or fewer runs for a record of 8-5, which is nondescript, considering the production. His ERA is flabbergasting 2.16 and in his five defeats, the Snakes have scored THREE total runs. Consider if the Arizona scored below their average and totaled just four runs per game in Haren’s losses (He allowed eight total runs in defeats), he would have 13-0 record, at +10.85 units and the most celebrated pitcher in the game.

The Florida Marlins are hanging around in contention in the NL East, even though their supposed strength coming into the season has not materialized. The Marlins staff of fine young hurlers is 12th in ERA in the National League and they are ordinary eighth in quality starts. How has Florida succeeded? The Fish are granulating left-handed pitchers, posting 20-11 record, picking up +10.1 units. Florida averages 0.5 more runs per game against southpaws (4.9 vs. 4.4) compared to right-handers. It’s the way the rotation works out; nonetheless, the Marlins are tied for third in facing the most lefties, which seems peculiar at this juncture given there results. What is even more outlandish is the fact Florida pitchers have conceded one less run per game (4.1 vs 5.1) when a left-hander starts for the opposition.

MLB Series Wagering - Mets at Yankees

Neither the Mets nor the Yankees return to the Big Apple in the best of moods after suffering series’ losses in what has amounted to rivalry week for both teams. The Mets lost series to Philadelphia, giving them six losses in last nine contests. The Yankees were swept in Boston and are 0-8 against the Red Sox in 2009.

Though players typically try and down play the significance of these types of interleague games, the fact is this is New York and they can’t help being caught up in the maelstrom with rabid fans and media descending on them. Both scuffling clubs will bring positives into the Subway Series, as the Metropolitans (31-27, -0.3 units) are 23-8 in road games when playing on Friday since 2007 and the Yanks are 15-3 at home after batting .240 or worse over a 10-game span.

Livan Hernandez (5-1, 3.88 ERA) has experienced a career renaissance this season, being picked up late by the Mets who needed a fifth starter. Pitching at Citi Field has helped the well-traveled veteran right-hander; however he’s performed above average on the road with 3-1 and serviceable 4.07 ERA. Hernandez has been downright awesome in his last three starts, with a 1.66 earned run average, which included complete game and seven shutout innings, thou both were against woeful Washington. He’s been moved up one day since John Maine was placed on DL Thursday, yet at least still had four days between starts. Hernandez is 18-10 (+12.1 Units) against the money line in the first half of the season over the last two seasons. (Team's Record)

The Yankees (34-26, -2.8 units) counter with Joba Chamberlain (3-1, 3.39), who will not have to face dangerous hitters like Carlos Delgado or Jose Reyes, who are both disabled. The Bronx Bombers have been anything but, losing five of last eight games and scoring 4.2 runs per game in the process. The Yanks are 18-11 in their new home and part of Chamberlain’s job will be to keep the ball in the yard. Balls have been flying over the fence at Coors Field pace. Chamberlain has been about average (which is good at the new Yankee Stadium), surrendering a total of seven homers in his 11 games pitched. New York and the big right-hander are 7-1 in last eight starts at Yankee Stadium.

DiamondSportsbook.com has the home-standing team in the pinstripes as -220 money line favorites with total Un10.5. The Yankees have the best record in baseball in interleague play at 124-89 (.582) and are 45-17 as a favorite of -201 or greater. Watch the total on this one, since the Mets are 11-1 OVER on the road after three or more consecutive home games and the Yankees are 13-2 OVER at home after a one run loss.

Game 1 Edge: Yankees

The middle encounter will be a Fox Sports afternoon affair. At this time, the presumed fill-in starter for the Mets will be Fernanado Nieve, who pitched two scoreless innings out of the bullpen this season for the Mets after they called him up from Triple-A Buffalo on June 6. Nieve is a hard throwing righty, who has shown proclivity to hit a lot of bats in his major league stints. Most likely, manager Jerry Manual will have to go to bullpen, which has been an issue for the Yankees who are 2-9 vs. an excellent bullpen whose ERA is 3.00 or better this season. Andy Pettitte (6-2, 4.22) will go the Yankees, who’s not found the new ballpark to his liking. More balls fly out to right field and Pettitte’s ERA is 5.40 at home compared to 2.58 on the road. The Yanks are 29-13 when the veteran lefty is a Game 2 starter and they are 8-2 versus their city rival when he takes the hill.

Game 2 Edge: Yankees

Amazingly, this won’t be the Sunday night game, probably because ESPN didn’t want to cut in on NBA Finals action. The series finale expects to be a good pitching matchup with Johan Santana (8-3, 2.39) battling A.J. Burnett (4-3, 4.89). Both pitchers are coming off less than impressive efforts, with Santana tying a career high in allowing four home runs, yet pitched well enough to pick up the win. Burnett was too amped or too strong, walking five and allowing five runs (three earned) in just 2 2/3 innings, in 7-0 loss at Boston. Day games have favored the Yankees who are 13-9 coming into the series, compared to the Mets 8-11 mark.

Game 3 Edge: Mets

Despite having the best record in interleague action, the Yankees are 19-17 against the Mets since 2003. Don’t see this as being deterrent, as Joe Girardi’s club will want to put Boston series behind them. The key game will be the opener and don’t see New York losing. (OK, I’m doing anything to improve my record, make it the Yankees) With the Bombers favored big in the first two contests, backing both and keeping fingers crossed they deliver a series win.

DiamondSportsbook.com series odds: Mets +200, Yankees -260

3DW Pick: Yankees

2009 Record – 2-6

Thursday May 28 action and wife's birthday

You get knocked down and you get right back up, which is what we did yesterday with 3-0 day. Not much to choose from today, which is why Sal is passing; however LLC bettors have a curious, in my opinion, selection, which won’t be official Free play. Top Trend looks at Game 5 in the East and Best System is on the base paths at 48-11 since 2004. Good Luck.

What I learned yesterday- Johan Santana allowed three runs in six innings in the Mets win. That snapped a streak of 14 consecutive home starts in which he did not allow more than two runs, tying the longest such streak by any pitcher in baseball's "modern era" (i.e. since 1900). Doc White (1905-06 White Sox) and Ed Reulbach (1906-07 Cubs) also had 14-start streaks at home.

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs like Atlanta with a money line of +100 or higher, who are batting .200 or worse over their last three games, against opponent with a hot starting pitcher with WHIP of 1.000 or less over his last five starts. This is the only quality system on a short sked, which is 48-11, 81.4 percent.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Orlando Magic are 13-1 ATS in last 14 contests with Cleveland.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Sal doesn’t like anything today, but five of seven Left Coast Connection members prefer Baltimore for some reason tonight.

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Firing up another week of wagering action

Back to back 2-1 days leaves us 49-34-2. Though a pretty thin day in sports found a super Trend in the NBA and dug around and uncovered 82 percent MLB totals system of note. Slick Rick of the Left Coast Connection had a very profitable weekend and gives his Free play. Good Luck.

What I learned yesterday – After yet another NBA playoff loss, it is time for me to pack it in for this season. After watching a game well on its way to Over, Boston didn’t make a basket for over seven minutes in the fourth quarter, which sent me to defeat. I know when not to send good money after bad situation and refuse to chase losses.

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY UNDER the total with offensive team scoring 5.0 or more runs a game, against a NL starting pitcher with ERA between 3.70 to 4.20, with a starting pitcher whose strikes out five or more batters per start. The Mets and Johan Santana fit this 82 percent system. (41-9)

Free Basketball Trend -2) Have used this recently but it is worth repeating, the Cleveland Cavaliers are 14-2 ATS after successfully covering the spread in four or more consecutive games this season.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Slick Rick had 9-2 three day weekend and prefers the Giants this evening at home.

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