Boston needs a little magic(?)

No way, come on, it’s impossible, not a chance in you know where, but yet…

The Boston Celtics have gone into some weird time warp machine, going from looking old and downtrodden, to younger and hotter than Justin Bieber and back again.

The Celtics by the end of Game 5’s 113-92 beat down looked like they had just rode on nearby Space Mountain at Disney World backwards, without seat belts.

For those that love the city of Boston and their sports teams, this series is taking on a theme a little too familiar, with the Bruins coughing up a 3-0 series lead to Philadelphia earlier this month.

The Celtics are 23-11 ATS when playing with double revenge and might need Lance Burton to put an end to Orlando’s magic. The single greatest denominator in this series is confidence. Boston stole it in Game 1 and Orlando has taken it back with two victories.

How else can you explain Boston being flawless on both ends of the floor, finding the open shooter to make baskets and closing out on Orlando shooters at just the right instant to make them miss.

Yet, in the space of less than two playoff games, Doc River’s team can’t find an open makeable shot and looks hesitant and half step slow on offense and is running towards Magic shooters, instead of having them guarded.

And what about Stan Van Gundy’s squad? For three games Orlando couldn’t hit the water with a shot at Disney's Blizzard Beach Water Park and Jameer Nelson vs. Rajon Rondo looked like the biggest mismatch since Floyd Mayweather Jr. hammered Arturo Gatti.

However, a great coaching adjustment by Van Gundy has Nelson finding freedom off screens and the Boston big men are uncertain of Jameer’s next move and he’s put them in a full Nelson, whether he’s decided to drive, shoot or dish. The Magic might have unleashed another weapon as Rashard Lewis stopped thinking and has started just playing basketball.

Orlando is 11-3 ATS in road games off a home win by 10 points or more this season and their increased intensity and execution has Rivers team reeling.

Glen Davis is a maybe after suffering concussion, leaving a frustrated Kendrick Perkins and Rasheed Wallace to do battle with Dwight Howard in the paint, who is invoking performances from yesteryear. (From Elias Sports - Dwight Howard registered 21 points, 10 rebounds and five blocked shots to help Orlando avoid playoff elimination in Game Five on Wednesday night. Howard had 32 points, 16 rebounds and four blocked shots to help Orlando avoid a series sweep in Game Four. Only one other player has recorded 20-or-more points, 10-or-more rebounds and at least four blocked shots in consecutive games with his team facing elimination in both games: Elvin Hayes in 1979.)

Boston is a 3.5-point favorite according to most sportsbooks, with total of 187.5. Can a battered and bruised white-clad club muster Celtic pride and close out this series? Yes they can, but they have to make adjustments.

Orlando has raised the ante on physical play and the Celtics have been retaliating with foolish fouls instead of matching grit for grit. Bang with the Magic just enough to not be whistled for fouls and don’t get out-muscled and out-worked on the glass, otherwise they fall to 13-30 ATS at home after being outrebounded by opponent by 15 or more. Passive won’t work and neither will overly aggressive, take the fight to them.

On the high screens Nelson is running off of, attack him with big man, with arms spread to reduce Jameer’s line of sight. Nelson has never been accused of being a Steve Nash-type passer. Force him make immediate decisions with ball, not his strength under duress.

Boston players also have to stay with their own man. In the first three contests the Magic converted 20 three-pointers, in the last two wins; Orlando long distance shooters have ripped the nets for 23 from “downtown”.

Superman and friends are 24-13 ATS as an underdog over the last two years and they know as well as Boston, for all intents and purposes this is an elimination game for both teams. Though 93 teams have tried and failed in the NBA playoffs being down 3-0, if Boston were to lose, most would bet against history.

ESPN has Game 6 at 8:30 Eastern and one can only imagine what people from Bean-Town are thinking.

Thursday's Top Material

We’re back after a 1-1 Tuesday and have three plays on tap to supports 56-26 record. The Best System and Best Bet are from the same game and have extremely impressive figures. Talk about impressive one AL team has an 18-0 angle going tonight. Good Luck

What I’ll learned today – Dwight Howard registered 21 points, 10 rebounds and five blocked shots to help Orlando avoid playoff elimination in Game Five on Wednesday night. Howard had 32 points, 16 rebounds and four blocked shots to help Orlando avoid a series sweep in Game Four. Only one other player has recorded 20-or-more points, 10-or-more rebounds and at least four blocked shots in consecutive games with his team facing elimination in both games: Elvin Hayes in 1979. (Thanks Elias)

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) Play On home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 like Cincy, batting .290 or better over their last 20 games, in May. Over the past three seasons this system is electrifying 27-6.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Tampa Bay is 18-0 in home tilts after scoring four runs or less three straight games over the last three seasons.

Free Baseball Pick -3) The LCC consensus plays continue to deliver wins and profits and are backing the Reds 14-0 this evening. WOW!

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Can Orlando make series compelling?

While waiting for the lines to come out on Game 5 between Boston and Orlando, did some perusing to see what the common man was thinking about this series after the Magic upset the Celtics 96-92 in overtime. Some were hilarious, other thoughts were insights into what Joe Average has running around in his dome, even if he still is allowed to drive and place online sports betting wagers.

The most common theme was this is all fixed by David Stern and Orlando was going to come back and tie the series at 3-3, with opinions varying who wins the deciding seventh game. This subject of fixed games will show up later this week in another article.

Many praised Orlando for not emailing it in and wondered aloud if this is the sign of the Magic finally playing up to capabilities or if it was a one night stand and reality comes a callin’ back at home. Most thought it was a gift to take Orlando at +7 seeing that was a two touchdown turnaround (14-point swing) in less than week, regardless of the location.

Equal numbers lambasted Boston for not bringing the necessary determination to close out opponent who had been all but willing to be beaten for large expanses of the series and questioned the Celtics commitment to excellence. What was read into this was they had the C’s minus the seven.

For those that see Stern as the reason the series was extended at least one more contest, it turns out the real culprit was Stan Van Gundy, the Magic coach.

Van Gundy may look like Ron Jeremy’s brother more than his own sibling Jeff; however he made two wise moves before Game 4 even started.

He had witnessed three games and broken down tape and determined Rajon Rondo was too disruptive as defender, especially against Jameer Nelson. Instead of setting single screens which Rondo routinely beat, he set up staggered screens.

This created more room for Nelson to operate, who is a shooter first and passer second as a point guard. Rondo couldn’t use his quickness to jump thru or around two Orlando players and Boston seemed puzzled as to what to do with Nelson in more open areas.

This placed different Celtics big men in no-man’s land and Dwight Howard for the first time had room to work with and the Magic’s offense had continuity, sending them home 16-5 ATS after failing to cover two of their last three against the spread this season.

While it’s impossible to gauge the impact, Orlando played more ready from the start. Van Gundy had told his squad no team had EVER come back from 3-0 deficit in the NBA playoffs (93-0), because they had not placed enough value on winning the fourth game in the series. Most of the Orlando players showed more passion and they own a diabolical angle moving ahead - 13-0 ATS after a win by six points or less this season, with average margin of victory 16 points.

Boston deserves plenty of blame for this series extension. The first aspect is the Celtics play after the third quarter in this East Finals. Most of the time Doc Rivers squad has enjoyed big leads going into the final 12 minutes and NBA contests have a natural ebb and flow, nonetheless after awhile you wonder about a team being outscored 105-78 in the last quarter and beyond. (Outscored all four games)

What has gotten the Celtics to this juncture is team basketball, yet in the last segments of game, a much larger volume of isolation plays are called or run, which is why Boston had such an awful spread record during the regular season by blowing leads for losses or non-covers. Despite the defense, it makes more sense why they are 5-17 ATS after two or more consecutive Under’s this year.

Oddsmakers have Orlando as four-point favorites, but they are only 2-6 ATS when doling out 4.5 or less points at home. Boston right now is not in scurrying mode from one loss –“There's definitely no need to panic. We like the position we're in," Ray Allen said. The Celtics are 15-5-1 ATS as postseason underdogs.

The Magic face a second match point trying to force a sixth conflict and build further momentum. ESPN will be on hand at 8:30 Eastern, with KG and company 11-2 UNDER revenging a straight up loss as a home favorite.

Boston on the brink

Talk about anti-climatic; this is exactly the situation the online sports betting world is facing in tonight’s Orlando and Boston Game 4 matchup. Only four times in the history of major sports has a team comeback from a 3-0 deficit (the city of Boston teams has been involved in half of them, one good one bad) and it has never happened on the hardwood.

The Celtics are headed to the NBA Finals whether it be tonight or later this week, but how did the veteran team come so far so fast after playing .500 basketball for 3 ½ months and being a near calamity for backers against the spread?

In hindsight, Boston had variables that were not present to the naked eye, but were just below the surface.

The Celtics have several players that had been thru every imaginable NBA condition. Two years ago they were able to finally taste a championship and thou they failed a year ago, Boston had far less expectations placed on them this season.

While many ranted (including the person that wrote this article) this was just an old team that needed to start refocusing with a different cast, their coach Doc Rivers saw something else.

“This being an older group, it’s probably easier for me to get their focus in the playoffs,” Rivers said. “The goal is right in front of them.”

Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen might not be able to bring an outstanding performance night after night like in the past, but as their confidence grew in the postseason, each has had spurts of greatness and played true team basketball, with Boston 11-3 SU and ATS in the playoffs.

Boston has been constructed in way that promotes team play and that has the ability to stifle opponents that are not mentally strong.

Beyond Dwayne Wade, Miami lacked the physical and mental toughness to compete with Boston and fell 4-1. Cleveland was believed to be on their way to being crowned the kings of the NBA, instead they still lacked the scoring power beyond LeBron James, with outside shooters that could drain shots all day against inferior competition, but not under pressure by a defensive team that gave no quarter.

Orlando, the defending Eastern champions, had marched thru the first two rounds of the playoffs like Heidi Montag adding car miles to plastic surgeon.

The Magic thwarted the Celtics a year ago in the East semis, but Garnett wasn’t there. The 2010 version of Rajon Rondo is superior to the one Orlando faced a year ago and Kendrick Perkins, Tony Allen and Glen Davis are all better players one season later, as witnessed by their complete thrashing of the blue-clad squad 94-71. Boston is 20-7 ATS off a home blowout win by 20 points or more since the “Big 3” and others were assembled.

This reporter admits to picking Orlando to win the series, but one nagging question was still out there. With Hedo Turkoglu and to a lesser degree Courtney Lee no longer part of Magic contingent, who was going to make big shots at crunch time?

Vince Carter has long been known for being less than clutch in the final five minutes of a contest. Dwight Howard needs to be setup to score and let’s be totally frank, Jameer Nelson, Rashard Lewis, Matt Barnes and others would never be accused of blood doping, since it would have to go thru their hearts, which they have not shown in this series to date. Orlando might be 17-4 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more, however they look much closer to the team that is 0-4 as visiting underdogs.

Sportsbooks have Boston as seven-point favorite with total of 187.

When Celtics players were asked about their hockey counterparts blowing 3-0 playoff lead this spring and if outside influences could make them less mentally strong, Paul Pierce said this.
“This team is not complacent,” Pierce said. “We’re too close to our goals. You’ve got a team that’s won the championship so we understand what it takes. We understand the mental toughness that you’ve got to have at this point in the season. So I don’t see any slippage from us and, hopefully, we can close this thing out on Monday.”

The total is at a series low and Boston is 12-2 UNDER after allowing 35 points or less in the first half last game (second time in the series), while Orlando is 11-3 UNDER after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games.

Game 4 is set for 8:30 Eastern on ESPN.

Orlando better come ready

The Boston Celtics exposed the Orlando Magic like Toto pulling back the curtain on the Wizard of Oz. Whether Orlando was not emotionally ready to play from the long layoff or listless after cruising past two dramatically weaker opponents, the facts are for three quarters the Magic looked liked they belonged in the Eastern Finals as much as the New Jersey Nets.

The crisp passing normally associated with Stan Van Gundy’s team amounted to a grand total of 10 assists in the series opener. The Magic players dumped the ball down to Dwight Howard and basically stood like statues in creating no movement on the perimeter, which forced Howard to rely on his limited offense game with nowhere to pass the ball.

While the Celtics deserve credit for keeping the Magic under 40 percent shooting for the first 36 minutes, their task was made much simpler with Rashard Lewis, Matt Barnes and Jameer Nelson for the most part taking off-balance shots and being sloppy ball-handlers.

“I don't think we were prepared for the level they were ready to play," said Vince Carter, one of the few players in white with pulse throughout the contest. "They were ready to go from the jump, and we weren't on their level from the beginning." Orlando is 41-22 ATS revenging a same season loss.

It’s not a good thing when the best and smartest player on the floor for your team is J.J. Redick. While the former Duke guard has made himself a useful NBA player off the bench, he can’t be one of two players (Carter the other) that understands what his team needs.

The Magic too readily let Boston set up its half court defense. When Nelson had the ball a good portion the game, he did too much yo-yo dribbling and the offense was stagnant.

With Redick, he would get the ball into Howard’s hands early in the shot clock and give the big man options, he would than move to give Dwight as reasonable outlet and would either dribble drive to the basket for a good shot or find another open shooter. The Magic are 23-11 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread this year.

"That was a wake-up call we really needed, in my opinion," said Carter. "They're relentless, they're aggressive, they do a great job of contesting, especially in the paint, and it took us a while to figure it out, but when we did we played a lot better."

The question about Boston has been are they too old and are they wise because of their experience? The answer presently is the latter. Ray Allen shot only 34 percent against the Magic in last year’s playoffs and they tried to employ the same defensive strategy on him again, pressuring him on the perimeter to take contested shots. Allen foiled those tactics, by beating Matt Barnes, Mickael Pietrus and later Redick off the dribble for layups or short jumps shots in totaling his game high 25 points.

The green-clad C’s are up to 38-23 ATS as road underdogs the past three years and Paul Pierce is starting to show he might still have something left in his legs with superior all-around game line that looked this way - 22 points, nine rebounds and five assists.

“It was a defensive game, and we like those. That was fine with us," said Boston coach Doc Rivers.

Orlando opens Game 2 as seven-point favorites to even the series, with total of 189. The Magic are 31-12 ATS after playing a game as a home favorite and 17-6 UNDER after one or more losses. Boston has won and covered four in a row and is 29-16 ATS in road games after successfully covering the spread in two or more consecutive contests. The Celtics are 11-2 UNDER after allowing 35 points or less in the first half last outing.

The second game in the series has an 8:30 Eastern start on ESPN.

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NBA Eastern Finals Outlook

(2) Orlando vs (4) Boston

After the Orlando Magic dismissed atrocious Atlanta in four games, an article appeared on the internet, questioning if this team was as good as the one that went to The Finals a year ago. We’ll let the author of that piece further collect his thoughts while we examine the facts, at least as we know them.

Orlando has won all eight assignments in the NBA Playoffs without a loss. An argument could easily be made of those teams in the final four, the Magic have had the path of least resistance, encountering two obviously flawed clubs that any of the other three teams to join them in the middle of May would have also beaten.

In Orlando’s defense, they can only do what is asked of them and have they ever.

Dwight Howard and the Magic are 8-0 and 7-1 ATS in the playoffs. They have won these games by an average of 17.1 points a contest and covered the spread by incredible 8.8 PPG. (There only non-cover was by half a point)

Since Feb. 28, Stan Van Gundy’s team is 28-3; let that sink in a few seconds, 28-3 and equally remarkable 23-7-1 ATS. While LeBron James and Cleveland were resting up at the end of the regular season to be eliminated from the playoffs roughly a month earlier than they expected, Orlando was just getting started. They are 14-0 and 13-1 ATS since Apr. 4.

Just how good has the Magic been in last 31 games, consider they have outscored opposing teams by 436 points or 14.0 PPG. The other three teams left in the postseason did not have that large of a total points differential over 82 games! In other words Orlando is lampooning everyone these days. One other note everyone might have missed, the team with the largest point differential in the NBA was the Magic at +7.5 and since 2004, all but one of the teams that won the NBA title led their conference in this category.

Now that we’ve established just how good Jameer Nelson and his teammates are what about Boston. The Celtics just took down the “chosen” Cavaliers who were supposed to be NBA champions. After an incredibly substandard second half of the season in which Betty White and Abe Vigoda (both were in the now famous Snickers commercial) appeared downright spry compared to the Celtics, they’ve had a playoff renaissance much like Ms. White’s career.

Kevin Garnett has been bedrock solid, playing to his strengths of the mid-range jump shot and being a presence on defense. Ray Allen quietly had a strong second half of the season after hearing trade rumors, driving foes crazy running off screens and draining jump shots. Though his foot speed might not be as good as it was, Allen’s knack of squaring up players on defense and picking their pocket, places the Celtics in advantageous positions.

Paul Pierce is showing signs of life, shooting the ball better and back to taking two dumb fouls a game. Glen Davis and Tony Allen are making contributions off the bench and there was even a Rasheed Wallace sighting, adding a positive contribution here and there.

As good as all these players have played in the first two rounds of the playoffs, none of this occurs without Rajon Rondo. Much like college basketball has become reliant on point guard play, the same is also true among the elite teams in the NBA.

Rondo was the singularly dominant performer in Cleveland series, with his ability on offense and defense and he set the tone for Boston throughout.

After being a deplorable spread team all season, The C’s are 8-3 SU and ATS in the postseason and building confidence.

Part of that feeling is being supplied by coach Doc Rivers. The former Orlando coach is not going to dazzle anyone with his X and O work, which is why he brought in assistant coach Tom Thibodeau to make the strategic moves. Like a smart boss, Rivers understands his strengths and weaknesses and surrounds himself with people that compliment his skill set.
This sets up as fascinating series, especially at point guard with Rondo vs. Nelson. If either gains an edge, their team automatically has a greater chance of winning.

Watching Orlando pass the ball on offense is like a video game or pinball machine. The ball is continually in motion at various angles and if a Magic player is open, he’ll be found. This places a premium on Boston defenders to stay with their man and have arms extended to tip passes or have body parts in passing lanes. If not, the 3-point party starts for Orlando.

Pierce and Allen can certainly matchup with Vince Carter and Matt Barnes and if they can gain the upper hand they could frustrate them since they’ve played more scrimmage games than actual hard-nose basketball recently.

Orlando won three of four meetings this season (2-2 ATS). You can presume the home court not to mean much just like last year playoff series, when the road team won three times. The Magic might be the best team in basketball, nonetheless that doesn’t mean they won’t be tested by this proud bunch from Boston who believes they can win it all again.

3Daily Winners Pick- Orlando (-260) in seven over Boston (+210)

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Bring the brooms for Monday

One professional basketball team swept away the competition in the second round; now two more will try and match them to start a new work week. Orlando and Los Angeles Lakers will attempt and do the same thing Phoenix performed yesterday and whisk away their opponent’s in four games to advance to conference finals.

The Magic are presumed to have the easier time since they have toyed with Atlanta like the Harlem Globetrotters vs. the Washington Generals. Orlando has won the three games in the series by an average of 29 points, which by NBA standards is about the same difference as a balanced budget in Washington D.C. vs. the national debt.

Orlando’s worst shooting game in the series was their last at 50.7 percent (the other two were 52.4 and 55.9 percent), while Atlanta shot attempts looked like a few of Tiger Woods drives over the weekend, making a paltry 36.8 percent vs. the Magic, however at least Woods had a back neck as excuse.

The Magic have won lucky 13 in a row (12-1 ATS) and are 13-3 ATS in road games having covered 12 or more of their last 15 against the spread over the last three seasons. Oddsmakers are taking a hit on the Hawks as the old “pendulum” theory is taking a beating with Atlanta, which is why Orlando is 6.5-point favorites after being just two in Game 3.

The Hawks are 2-13 ATS in the second round of the playoffs and 4-18 ATS off a home massacre of 20 points or more and the most telling and damning remarks come from one of their own.

When asked how well his team plays together center Al Horhord offered this.

“The chemistry, it’s OK,” Horford said, hardly a glowing assessment. “At times, it can be really good. Other times, not so good. There are ups and down. We have a lot of good guys on the team. We mesh to a certain extent. I just think sometimes, when things don’t go our way, everybody seems to crawl into their own little hole.” How could a sports bettor take the points with that cryptic statement for this TNT tilt at 8:00 Eastern?

While many basketball experts don’t recognize much of a difference between the Lakers and Utah besides the height factor, Los Angeles has on other clear edge, which is why they are the defending NBA champions.

The Lakers are maddening bunch this year as reported underachievers, merely going thru the motions too often for people’s taste. They had the third best regular season record at 57-25 and were far from domineering at +4.7 points point differential (tied for sixth overall). Their 39-50-2 spread record is a scattergood for a team of their ability, yet the one thing they do right the vast portion of the time is they make one more shot, grab one more rebound or make one more defensive stop to win games than the opposition. This carried them to Game 3 victory and 3-0 series lead even if good fortune as much as anything kept Wesley Matthews tip-in try at the buzzer out of the basket.

For all the criticism Phil Jackson’s team receives they have won five in a row and covered the number four times and have growing confidence, which is not good news for future opponents.
“Down the stretch, we made big shots. We’ve got guys that aren’t scared to take them,” Kobe Bryant said. “All across the board, guys will step up and they make them. That’s why we never really fret when it’s a five-point game or a two-point game with a couple minutes to go. “
The Lakers have no problem playing the up-tempo game with Utah and are 9-1 ATS after three or more consecutive Over’s this season.

Utah is 2.5-point favorites, with total at a series high of 207 and the Jazz are 13-4 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this year. “If we get the ball in the basket last night in the end of the ballgame it’s a different day,” Utah coach Jerry Sloan said Sunday. “But that’s part of it. You learn how to deal with the good and bad in life. There’s always going to be both at different times.”

The Jazz are 8-0 ATS at Energy Solutions Arena after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points and are 8-1 OVER in all playoff conflicts this campaign. The Lakers would prefer not to extend series and have nearly as much rest as the Suns before they meet and are 34-19 ATS as underdogs.

This contest will begin after Orlando and Atlanta complete their game and L.A. is 13-5 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3 this season.

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Is it wise to wager on Saturday’s NBA home teams?

The Utah Jazz and Atlanta Hawks are down 0-2 and neither is given much of a chance to come back in their respective series. That doesn’t mean they won’t give complete effort having slept in the own beds and will feel the energy of the home crowd once they hit the floor. But does either team really have enough, can they play a complete game with the minimum amount of failures and get back into the series to make it interesting at the very least. For the sports bettor, this is what to look for if you want to play these teams.

In primetime on ABC at 8:00 Eastern, Utah is looking forward to adding one more weapon to their depleted arsenal, with Andrei Kirilenko “AK47”, expected to play after missing most of two months with a strained left calf.

Kirilenko is unlikely to be a major factor, but if he can limit Kobe Bryant defensively, while invigorating the offense, that becomes a positive for the Jazz.

Utah is 35-9 and 29-13-2 ATS in home games this season and needs to make an adjustment that is contrary to how they play. Coach Jerry Sloan’s motion offense has again led to Utah being one of the top shooting teams in the NBA at 49 percent, but after awhile, you can’t keep going into the paint against the taller Lakers and have shots stamped “return to sender” continually.

Utah has had 20 blocked field goal attempts already in this series and might be better served to drive and kick out to shooters or use drive-and-stab dribble to create 10-foot shots instead of facing rejections or altered shots.

The Jazz are not going to beat Los Angeles by playing swarming defense, they have to out-shoot them. In Utah’s last 10 wins over the Lakers at home, they have had the higher shooting percentage nine times. In fact, the team that shoots the ball better is 14-1-1 ATS in Salt Lake City since Nov. 3, 2004.

The Jazz are 4.5-point favorites with total of 202.5. Utah is 18-6 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less and 15-6 OVER in double revenge situations. The Lakers are seemingly much better than Utah and appear to get bored when building any substantial lead but are 18-7 ATS after consecutive contests forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers.

It’s hard to believe NBA analyst and former coach Hubie Brown is 76 years old, as he still can make watching an NBA game a pleasure, breaking down the teams and players for the more sophisticated fan, yet make salient understandable points for the casual observer. Brown also has the gift of criticizing a player in a manner that isn’t demeaning but fair, but later finding a positive about that same player later in a telecast, just like a coach.

Brown has had plenty of ammo to work with watching the Atlanta. The Hawks were a no-show in Game 1, losing to Orlando by eye-popping 43 points. As presumed, Atlanta showed much more resolve in the next contest and was tied at 83 with the Magic after three quarters.
However, NBA basketball is about performing when it matters most, the fourth quarter.

Atlanta is like a lot of NBA teams, they lacked that killer instinct to take care of opponent in the last 12 minutes and they were outscored 28-15 by Orlando in the final stanza.

For this 5:00 Eastern matchup on ESPN, Atlanta is 8-3-1 ATS off a double digit defeat and has to make up their minds they want to play all 48 minutes. This team had impressive wins in the regular season over good clubs and has to bring that same fire for all four quarters. The other component necessary to victory is Mike Bibby playing like a point guard of distinction.

Atlanta has just 28 assists in two games vs. Orlando and Bibby has a grand total of four. Coach Mike Woodson’s team to often lapses into dribbling without purpose, running down the shot clock and taking forced shot attempts. As John Hollinger of ESPN points out, Bibby’s postseason play has been the weakest of the remaining point guards still in the tournament and the Hawks are not talented enough to hide his poor play like the Lakers can do with Derek Fisher or someone else that comes off the bench in Los Angeles. Bibby’s team needs him, it’s time for his to deliver.

The Hawks are catching 2.5-points as home dogs and they will have to do better than 1-8 ATS off a SU loss if they want to continue this series beyond four games. Going up against the hottest team in the playoffs will test their fortitude, since Orlando is on 12-game winning streak and is awe-inspiring 11-1 ATS.

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Are the Atlanta Hawks already finished?

The source of the question you are about to read might seem a little strange, but it turns out to be exactly correct in breaking down Atlanta and Orlando series. “Is the anticipation of some future pleasure better than the actual experience?”

Winnie the Pooh posed that question before eating honey and the Hawks of Atlanta are wondering the same thing in saying “…we’re looking forward to seeing what we can do in the playoffs against Orlando”. After being trounced by 43 points (Atlanta missed a push against the spread by a mere 34 digits) the first thought that comes to mind is “really?”

Atlanta was actually competitive for the first 12 minutes, trailing only 25-23 and they went into somnolence. The Birds scored a grand total of 21 points in the middle two quarters and gave new meaning to the NBA Playoff slogan “Amazing is ……?

Coach Mike Woodson could go to Home Depot, buy all the paint his credit card would allow and it still wouldn’t cover up this stink bomb.

After a one game reprieve against a Milwaukee club that in all fairness isn’t in Atlanta’s world talent-wise, the Hawks reverted back to being the Hawks on the playoff road. Now 2-11 ATS (aver. loss 19.9 PPG) on postseason excursions, Atlanta showed exactly why they don’t belong with NBA elite.

After passing the ball around for a few first quarter assists and buckets, Woodson proved he really has no control of this team as Joe “iso” Johnson and Jamal “shot craver” Crawford were a combined 5 for 22 from the field, which is truly “amazing”.

The Hawks are 4-18 ATS away from home versus good teams outscoring opponents by three or more points a game after the mid-point of the season the last three years and might have to use Dictionary.com to look up the word – team.

Josh Smith was the only player that had a descent stat sheet with 7-14 shooting and three steals, but he took silly fouls and continues to play “street ball” on an NBA court. In his defense, just think what Atlanta would have shot (they were 34.6 percent) for game if Smith had not made half his shots?

Dwight Howard only played just over 28 minutes, but this time it wasn’t because of foul trouble, it was because it was a total demolition by Orlando. Howard had 21 points, 12 boards and five blocks and the only word that came to mind watching Al Horford and Zaza Pachulia trying to stop “Superman” was “helpless”. In fact, the Atlanta big men really wanted so little to do with Howard he couldn’t find enough of their players to commit his usual three or four reckless fouls.

Oddsmakers can’t overreact to 43-point cave-ins and the Hawks are 9.5-point underdogs, with total of 189.5. Maybe a hug and drinking from their favorite sippy-cup will make Atlanta feel all better and even after being throttled; they are 8-1 ATS after scoring 85 or fewer points.

Coach Stan Van Gundy probably wouldn’t mind a competitive contest, since it appears the next round could be coming soon and his team is 29-12 ATS after playing a home game this season. Orlando is 30-14 UNDER after scoring 110 points or more and the unimposing Hawks are 20-7 UNDER revenging a road loss of 10 points or more.

Stayed tuned to ESPN at 8:00 Eastern to witness the next massacre or if Atlanta can really play with heart, for a change.

Orlando vs Atlanta Series Outlook

The Magic and Hawks took opposite paths to this series matchup, Orlando using only four games, while Atlanta was pushed to full seven. However, this is what the Hawks wanted, they are out to prove they are an elite club deserving of being in the final four of NBA tournament, while this is another stop on the way for the team from central Florida, wanting to repeat as conference champions. What is set to occur, read on.

(2) Orlando vs (3) Atlanta

If the Orlando Magic is a little tight to start Eastern Conference semi-final series with Atlanta don’t be shocked. Not tight like in nervous, more in the muscles being strained, as they haven’t played a NBA game since Mar. 26 in being the only NBA team to sweep opponent.

Though Orlando needed only four contests to send the Bobcats packing, a similar performance could send them home before Memorial Day. Dwight "Foul-On-U" Howard played roughly 54 percent of the time against Charlotte and it had nothing to do with being tired or the Magic being far ahead. Howard was continually in foul trouble and was WAY to easily frustrated by the antics of Bobcats big men and let his ego matter more than the team.

Though Atlanta coach Mike Woodson will not be mentioned in the same sentence with Larry Brown as astute NBA coaching legends, he will learn from what the Charlotte was able to do and work to have Howard take himself out of the game instead of being dominate force.

Vince Carter shot 35.7 percent in first playoff series with Orlando, that won’t cut it against Atlanta. Carter was too tentative and fell back into comfort zone of hoisting jumps shots. (Though he’s not that accomplished at making them) He has to be willing to put the ball on the deck, drive to the rim, get fouled and make free throws to create more wide open chances for jumpers.

If those two players perform up to capabilities, Orlando could have another short series, since Jameer Nelson, Matt Barnes and Mickael Pietrus were burying three’s like “Fito” with his bone in the backyard. In many ways Nelson is the key performer among this trio, as he can force Atlanta to sit Mike Bibby, since he is not a good defender any longer and make the Hawks use Jamal Crawford as more two-way player.

Orlando won three of four meetings with Southeast Division partner, with average margin of victory 22.1 points per game. The Magic come into this series 40-19 ATS having won 12 or more of their last 15 games.

Coach Woodson wants to believe his club learned something about itself and it will carry over into this next series. Realistically, except for fourth quarter collapse in Game 5, the Hawks have played very good defense for three games and started sharing the ball in the last six quarters.

Atlanta players don’t have to run isolations time after time to score, they get much better offensive flow by passing, cutting and finding open shooters. Though Milwaukee lacked the height to compete with the Hawks inside, the increased offensive movement made them a much better offensive rebounding team which will be a requirement in this series, especially if it leads to fouls on Howard.

On defense, Atlanta was able to pressure the Bucks guards with greater persistence and they will have to have that same gumption with all the Orlando shooters.

To start the series, the better strategy for the Hawks is to man-up the Magic and keep in contact with their sharp-shooters and hope Al Horford can force Howard out to around 10 feet and keep him away from the rim. What hurts Atlanta is when they allow dribble penetration, setting up Howard for easy dunks because of help defense and three-point marksmen are left alone to hit the bulls-eye.

Joe Johnson and Crawford have to be the offensive catalysts as scorers and facilitators. Horford, Josh Smith and Marvin Williams are much better players when they receive passes in their comfort zone.

"We're confident," Hawks center Horford said. "I think we've figured out if we play hard defensively we always give ourselves a chance to win games. And we just have to come out and match their intensity. They have a lot of good shooters, they have Dwight inside. It's going to be a challenge... but we're excited." Atlanta is 5-18 ATS on the road in all playoff games.

Atlanta will have no better chance to grab the upper hand feeding off the momentum of series win and Orlando being rusty for first contest. The Hawks players, at least outwardly believe they can win two series for the first time in franchise history since moving to Atlanta in 1968. That means playing at a level they are not accustomed to and doing whatever it takes. From talent perspective, they could pull the upset, but Orlando is a bad matchup for them with their style (4-8 SU & ATS) and ultimately prevails.

3Daily Winners Pick- Orlando (-800) in six over Atlanta (+600)

NBA Playoffs offer Monday choices

The first day of last work week of April offers a little something for every sports bettor. Will Orlando be the only team to perform a first round sweep or does Charlotte show pride and head off the inevitable. Milwaukee showed up for Game 3 and ended scrubbing the floor with Atlanta’s jayvee road team. The Bucks will try and even the series. So much for Phoenix having an easy time with Portland, now the thought process has to be who wants it more.

Orlando at Charlotte 8:00E TNT

Without reading the entire boxscore, finding out Vince Carter, Dwight Howard and Rashard Lewis would score 37 points on 12 for 29 shooting in Charlotte; it would be assumed Orlando would have fallen.

But as J.R.R. Tolkien once said “Even the smallest person can change the course of the future.” This is precisely what 6’0 Jameer Nelson has done; scoring 32 points in 90-86 win in Game 3 to lead the Magic to victory.

Nelson is averaging 25.7 points per game and has a turnover about every 36 minutes of play in this series. “I’m not out there trying to shoot every shot,” Nelson said. “It just happens that sometimes you have to, especially if you have it going.”

Orlando now has a commanding 3-0 lead and is 12-0 ATS after a win by six points or less this season. Because the Bobcats don’t have the offensive firepower to match the Magic, it’s more a matter of who wants to win this game than overall ability.

Charlotte is 18-5 ATS having lost four of their last five games and veteran coach and vagabond Larry Brown knows what he has seen in the series. “It hasn’t been the defense that has let us down,” Brown said. “Defensive rebounds have been a problem. Turnovers have been a problem. And I think more than anything is poor execution on offense.”

Orlando is a four-point pick and is 25-14 ATS as a road favorite of four points or less and is 21-11 UNDER in this role. The Bobcats will attempt to stave off elimination and are 20-9 ATS after a game as a home underdog, losing by 2.7 points per contest.

Atlanta at Milwaukee 8:30E NBA-TV

Coach Mike Woodson said his Atlanta club has to learn to deal with adversity, especially on the road, you think!

Hey coach, what about if they just decide to act like they even care about giving effort on the playoff road for goodness sake. (This is family website, thus language tempered) Consider Luc Mbah a Moute, Kurt Thomas and Dan Gadzuric of Milwaukee had a decided advantage over Josh Smith, Al Horford and Marvin Williams just by trying, something the team in the ATL jerseys just are not interested in.

This team is supposed to be maturing, but after Saturday’s debacle, the Hawks have lost eight of nine road playoffs games the last three years, with the average margin of defeat 22.6 PPG.

“I still think we’re a team that’s still learning how to win, like all teams in this league,” Woodson said. “It’s not easy winning on the road, and I never use that as an excuse, but that’s reality.” Losing is one thing but being blown out and man-handled is quite another. Dating back several seasons, this franchise is 2-12 ATS on the road in the first round of the playoffs.

This has to give the Bucks a great deal of confidence and maybe those signs around town spooked Atlanta – Fear the Deer.

Milwaukee is 8-1 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more this season; nevertheless is not getting ahead of itself. “There was a lot of pressure on us to come out and win Game 3,” rookie Brandon Jennings said. “But we can’t celebrate. We’ve got to come back Monday and do the same thing.”

DiamondSportsbook.com has established the Hawks as 1.5-point favorites with 191 total, if for no other reason to some pride. Atlanta is 8-1 ATS and 8-1 OVER off a double digit defeat. The Andrew Bogut-less Bucks are 14-4 ATS after scoring 105 points or more and are 14-2 OVER as a home deer, whoops, dog of three points or less.

Portland at Phoenix 10:30E TNT

Right before the series, the big news in the basketball desert was Portland was not going to have their best play Brandon Roy, who was having minor surgery on a torn meniscus. Phoenix went out and celebrated their good fortune by going thru the motions in the series opener, falling by five as eight-point favorites.

The Suns took this series seriously the next two contests, pummeling Portland by 29 and 19 points respectively and got their swagger back, making this look like a five-game series was about to unfold.

However, word was Roy’s procedure was so minor he was able to shoot free throws and do straight line running within days and low and behold he was in uniform for Game 4.
With the theme of “Rocky” playing at the Rose Garden, a delirious crowd welcomes backed their superstar and Phoenix fell for it.

It was clear Roy lacked any lateral quickness, but the Suns coaches and players had a welcoming committee whenever he touched the ball, bring an extra man to guard him, for reasons unknown, freeing up other Blazers players.

“As soon as he checked into the game, I got my first open shot with nobody guarding me, so I was thinking thank God he’s back,” Aldridge said with his team 15-4 ATS after two or more Under’s.

Amare Stoudemire brought up what is becoming an annoying theme to Suns fans and backers. “We didn’t bring it, we just didn’t bring it,” Stoudemire said. “We realized how important the game was. We didn’t bring the effort, we didn’t bring the energy, we didn’t rebound, we didn’t attack. We had a chance to go up 3-1, which would have been great. Now we’ve got to go back to a must-win situation.”

Phoenix is 25-14 ATS after playing a road game and is a six-point favorite with total of 202. If the Suns expect to win this first round Western series they have to force the tempo and are 22-6 OVER at home after two away encounters.

Portland at least knows they are going back home, as they are 0-8 ATS off an upset win as a home underdog.

Are NBA home teams wise bets tonight?

Orlando and Dallas each won their opening first round game and look to build a solid 2-0 lead in their series before taking to the road for a pair. Both teams have been a solid investment of late; however both are matched against division foes that know them well. Can they continue to win or do two coaching legends come up with ways to not only cover the spread, but derail plans of sweeping the initial home encounters.

Coach we’re paying attention, really

The Magic rather easily built a 22-point in the third quarter against Charlotte, before the Bobcats got with the program and started to play closer to their abilities.

Charlotte was too excited to start Game 1 – “We were a little nervous starting off the game, and they knew it,” forward Gerald Wallace said.

But with some well-timed coaxing from coach Larry Brown, Charlotte battled back to 85-80 by being the aggressor and getting Dwight Howard off his game with extremely physical play.
Howard admitted to receiving little sleep the night before, anxious to start the playoffs and he played liked someone tired and irritable with not enough time on the pillow. Howard had as many fouls as points (5), playing less than 28 minutes. “Superman” was less than super with only seven boards and took silly fouls.

“Their big guys are going to hit him every chance they get. And if he gets one foul retaliating, they’ve done their job,” Magic coach Stan Van Gundy said. “He can’t get any of those. He’s just going to have to understand no matter how many times they hit him, he can’t hit back. We need him on the floor.”

Orlando came up just short of covering the 9.5-point spread with 98-89 victory and is 21-11 ATS off a home win this season.

The Bobcats are expected to be much more relaxed this time with Wallace and Stephen Jackson as the scoring leaders. Charlotte is 18-9 ATS versus good three point shooting teams (36 percent or higher) and must do a better job containing Jameer Nelson, who was 4-8 from beyond the arc and scored 24 of his 32 points in the second half. Nelson missed the first three rounds of the playoffs a year ago and wants to show his skills this spring.

The Magic are 18-5 ATS off two or more consecutive home wins and are 20-3 and 15-7-1 ATS since the beginning of March. DiamondSportsbook.com has them as 8.5-point pick with total of 186 and they are 17-7 UNDER off a no-cover where they won straight up as a favorite.

If Orlando loses focus again, Charlotte will try to sneak right in and Jordanaires are 22-9 ATS after covering two of last three against the spread and are 16-5 OVER playing only their second game in a week.

In Dirk we trust

It’s often been said in NBA circles that if Dirk Nowitzki is your best player, the chances of NBA title are remote. In his career, Nowitzki has had his postseason up and downs, however has been a much steadier performer in recent years. His Game 1 effort against oft-seen rival San Antonio, deep in the heart of Texas, was close to perfection.

Nowitzki scored 36 points on 12-14 shooting, wore out the nets sinking all 12 free throw attempts and grabbed seven boards while committing a single turnover. “Sometimes,” Nowitzki said, “you have one of those nights where the basket is big.”

The Mavericks have now defeated the Spurs six straight times on their home floor (5-1 ATS) and were the bigger and more aggressive team on Sunday. Erick Dampier and Brendan Haywood out-muscled and out-hustled San Antonio, contributing to 45-37 edge on the glass.

Richard Jefferson was brought to San Antonio to make them younger on the wings and add speed and quickness. For most of the season he’s looked lost in black uniform and he was non-factor again with four points on four shots. The Spurs are piteous 9-23 ATS revenging a road loss the last two seasons.

Coach Gregg Popovich’s defensive strategy might have to be altered if Nowitzki starts Game 2 where he left off. San Antonio played the German forward straight up with approximately five different defenders, eschewing the double team, trying to cover the other Mavs.

Tony Parker lacked his usual zip to the rim and the Spurs ball-handling was atrocious with 17 turnovers, 11 in the opening 12 minutes.

Dallas is a 3.5-point home favorite and coach Rick Carlisle leaned heavy on his starters, with only three subs seeing significant time. The Mavericks have built six-game winning streak (5-0-1 ATS) and despite a yearlong of bad angles, they are 18-7 ATS playing with two days rest since last season.

San Antonio lacked their usual crispness and is 1-8 ATS versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists a game. The Spurs are 23-9 OVER in revenge-mode off a road loss.
Both NBA playoff battles are on TNT, with the first game at 7:05 Eastern.

East vs West Televised Tilts

Once again this season, the Western Conference has the edge over the East. The West has 11 teams at .500 or better, compared to those from the Eastern side with eight. One distinct disadvantage the East has is New Jersey (1-21 SU vs. the West), that would be the Nets, not the state. ESPN will have two confrontations to wager on Friday night with the NBA bettor being able to show his allegiance.

Dallas at Atlanta 7:00 E

While a number of Eastern Conference teams have been pummeled by the West, one club that hasn’t is Atlanta (36-20, 34-22 ATS). The Hawks are 18-8 against the other conference with a 15-11 ATS mark. Atlanta is even more imposing at Phillips Arena with 10-1 (6-5 ATS) record.

The Hawks return home from .500 four game road trip and gave a run of the mill performance in defeating Minnesota 98-92 as 11.5-point favorites. Atlanta was bailed out by Josh Smith, who had 27 points, 10 rebounds and five assists.

He was all over the place,” coach Mike Woodson said. “He blocked some shots. He scored for us, made some free throws. He was solid from beginning to end, and we’re going to need him the rest of the way.” Atlanta is 18-9 ATS after playing a home game this season.

The Hawks are going to need Smith and a complete team effort to slow down Dallas (37-21, 24-34 ATS). The Mavericks have won five in a row and have really put the defensive clamps down on opposing teams, limiting them to 90.2 points per game during this win streak. Dallas has a number of negative trends this season, but they are 16-9 ATS when they hold opponents to 96 or fewer points.

The Mavs are only three-point road underdogs at DiamondSportsbook.com, possibly because they are 17-5 (10-12 ATS) against the East. Dallas will have to overcome frightening angle that has them at 5-15 ATS after two or more consecutive wins this season. Atlanta on the other hand is 22-6 and 19-10 ATS at home and 26-12 ATS on their own court after three straight games committing 14 or less turnovers over the last two years.

Atlanta has won and covered last two meeting at home and is 17-6 OVER after one or more Under’s this season. The Hawks also won at Dallas 80-75 on Dec. 5 as six-point underdogs and the Mavericks are 9-1 UNDER in road games revenging a straight up loss vs. opponent as a home favorite.

Orlando at New Orleans 9:30 E

The Magic have won 13 of last 17 (9-7-1 ATS) and no tricks have been involved. Center Dwight Howard has been the centerpiece of Orlando (39-19, 28-26-4 ATS) surge, that has catapulted them into first place in the Southwest Division and ahead of Boston for the second best record in the East.

“He’s worked hard. He’s made improvement and I think he’s going to play at a high level all of the time.” – Coach Stan Van Gundy said about Howard.

The Magic humiliated Houston 110-92 at their place and is 17-6 ATS after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last contest. Orlando has been above average against the West with 12-8 mark and 8-9-3 ATS record.

New Orleans (30-28, 29-29 ATS) could use some help, having lost seven of last 11. The Hornets have pressed on without their leader Chris Paul, as their rookie backcourt of Darren Collison and Marcus Thornton has played well on the offensive end, but possibly isn’t getting the rest of the team into the offense. As one might expect, defense is an on-going lesson for this duo at this level and they and their teammates permitted Milwaukee to score 72 of their 115 points in the paint in last outing, which is dreadful, since the Bucks aren’t exactly known as inside scoring team.

We just didn’t have enough fight, which is inexcusable for a team like this,” Collison said. “Mentally, we weren’t in it on the defensive end.” The Hornets will have to get into it or they will fall to 2-11 ATS on Friday night’s.

New Orleans is five-point home underdog with total of 201 and they are 10-15 (13-12 ATS) facing teams east of the nearby Mississippi River. The Hornets lost by six at Orlando earlier this month and is 25-11 ATS at home revenging a same season loss and 14-3 UNDER as a home underdog. The Magic has mesmerized non-conference foes on the road the last three years with 29-13 ATS record and is 16-6 UNDER as a road favorite this season.

The Hornets are 5-4 and 4-5 ATS against Orlando since moving to the Crescent City.

Viewable Sunday Afternoon NBA Action

Four division leaders will collide on ABC this afternoon, kind of a playoff primer if you will. The first is a rematch of last year’s Eastern Conference Finals, with Cleveland traveling south to Orlando to try and continue to prove to their loss was a mistake and they are indeed the better team. Later, Boston wraps up their five game road trip in the Mile High City. Two top tilts, lots of wagering options.

I must punish you for past misdeeds

The Cleveland Cavaliers (43-13, 28-27-1 ATS) lost to Orlando in six games in the East Finals and didn’t sit by idly feeling sorry for itself. They were no match for the Magic and Dwight Howard and picked up the one available big man that could be difference-maker in Shaquille O'Neal. The Cavs with LeBron James, have the best record in the NBA and have faced the Magic twice this year, beating them each time while covering the spread.

For the Cavaliers, that wasn’t not enough, which is why they made the trade for forward Antawn Jamison, who can play the jazzy named "stretch 4" position, which is a power forward who can stretch the defense out to the three-point line. (Pretty cool) The Cleveland front office believes once Leon Powe is activated, they have the necessary parts to not only beat Orlando, but take the whole enchilada. The Cavs arrive in central Florida 19-9 and 16-11-1 ATS on the road.

The Magic players acknowledge Cleveland up the ante. "They made themselves better," said Rashard Lewis said after hearing about the trade. "They wanted to match up with me, or down to me, but I'm not their matchup problem. It's the big fellow (Dwight Howard) over there." Lewis averaged 18.3 points and shot 48.4 percent from 3-point range in the conference final against Cleveland last spring.

However, just because you’re comfortable does mean it’s a done deal and Orlando (38-19, 26-26-4 ATS) is still the defending East champs. "They already were the best team in the East, by far, and this makes them stronger," said Magic forward Matt Barnes. "But we're not going to hold our heads down. We're still confident we can beat them."

Orlando is 21-6 at home (13-13-1 ATS) and plays into double revenge and is a two-point favorite at DiamondSportsbook.com with total of 195. The Magic as a less than magical 8-20 ATS off a double digit home loss which they suffered to Dallas (95-85) on Friday and are 22-8 UNDER off a loss. Cleveland is usually an angry club off a whipping (like they felt at Charlotte 110-93) and is 22-6 ATS off a double digit defeat.

This matinee starts at 1:00 Eastern and the Cavaliers are 10-4-1 OVER since Jan. 16.

Denver a Mile High Headache

The Nuggets are fairly perky again after trudging into Cleveland and ending the Cavs 13-game winning streak. Carmelo Anthony upstaged James at crunch time, scoring his 39th and 40th points to break a 116-116 tie with a jumper with 1.9 seconds remaining in overtime to give Denver the win at Cleveland on Thursday night.

"A lot of people got some good pictures out of that moment," Anthony said. "I wanted the ball. I made the shot." Denver (36-19, 25-27-3 ATS) followed that up with dud at Washington, losing by 10 and return home where they are 23-5 (14-13-1 ATS) at the Pepsi Center.

Boston (35-18, 21-31-1 ATS) checks into Denver 3-1 on road trip, looking to return home on a very positive note. The Celtics have been scuffling plenty the last two months (12-13 SU and 8-16-1 ATS), nevertheless are showing signs of returning to earlier form with 6-2 record in February.

Boston hopes to get something immediately out of their newest player Nate Robinson. "He gives us speed, No. 1," coach Doc Rivers said. "He gives us another ball-handler. And he gives us a guy that can have a night. When guys go flat, he's a guy that can create shots without a play (or) after a play has broken down, on a ball swing. The other thing he does is gives us defense. He can pressure the ball. We can use lineups with (Rajon) Rondo and Nate at times against certain teams. The ball pressure alone will be phenomenal."

Denver is a four-point favorite with total of 198 and is 7-1 ATS off a spread failure and 5-1 UNDER in previous six with a day off between games. Boston is a boastful 51-22-1 as a visiting dog and is 8-1 UNDER in last nine, including six in a row.

This encounter is slated for 3:30 Eastern start with the home team 7-2 ATS.

Last Chance for NBA Bettors

All but four NBA teams go into hibernation for a few days starting Thursday. The lucky(?) four clubs are part of the TNT Thursday night televised package and at least they know they will have something to play for after the All-Star break, unlike the New Jersey Nets. The first contest brings together the Eastern Conference finalists from last season and San Antonio will be off the road for brief reprieve from Rodeo Trip, after visiting Denver.

Cleveland seeks small measure of revenge

In sports were told every season and every team is different from year to year. Players are taught to let go of past failures or success, since what is happening this moment is what you are playing for, not what previously occurred. Fans and often sports bettors don’t have that acquired skill, they remember.

If Cleveland’s unassailable 12-game winning streak conjures up memories of the Cavaliers (42-11, 27-25-1 ATS) marching into the East Finals last season, that’s understandable. However, in search of No. 13, pardon those who wonder if this could be unlucky number since they held tickets on Cleveland to win series wager over Orlando last spring and saw those ducats become combustible.

“They’re coming into our building, and right now we’re the best team in the NBA,” LeBron James said Tuesday after beating New Jersey. “It’s going to be a fun one.” The Cavs are 7-5 ATS during this hot streak and have won 20 of last 21 contests played at Quicken Loans Arena (23-3 and 11-15 ATS on the season).

Cleveland believes they are better equipped this season to make the NBA Finals, having acquired Shaquille O’Neal, who was brought in largely because the Cavs had no answer for Dwight Howard in the playoffs last year. The Cavaliers come into tonight 14-2 ATS at home after two games converting 50 percent or more of their shots.

Orlando (36-17, 25-24-4 ATS) doesn’t arrive in Cleveland like the Washington Generals. The Magic have won 10 of 12, including last three in a row. They have done this playing great defense, permitting just one team to break the century mark against them. Orlando was on fire against Chicago last night and is 16-5 ATS after scoring 60 points or more in the first half of last game. The Magic’s confidence is growing as Vince Carter, who has suffered the worst slump of his career, has averaged 24.2 points in his last five games.

Cleveland is a 6.5-point favorite with total of 194 at Bookmaker.com and is deceiving 16-7 ATS facing a team with a winning record this year, as their average margin of victory is 8.5 points a game. Here is an odd stat for a top notch team; Orlando attempts more three point shots than free throws (27.9 vs. 27.3) and they arrive near Lake Erie 21-9 ATS as a road underdog over the last two seasons. The Magic lost earlier meeting at home to Cavs 102-93, nevertheless has split last six visits in Cleveland, covering five of them. Tipoff is just 8 Eastern.

Spurs might need lasso to contain Denver on Rodeo Trip

San Antonio (29-21, 24-25-1 ATS) is .500 after its first four games of annual road adventure, but both losses have come against teams lacking their stars. The Spurs didn’t have to see Brandon Roy or Kobe Bryant in uniform, yet failed to win or cover in either case. Richard Jefferson thought his coach had the answer.

“Coach (Gregg Popovich) said it best: ‘We’re playing soft.’ And that’s starting with me. I haven’t shot the ball well the last 10 or so games.” -Jefferson stated.

The Spurs won’t catch such a break tonight, as Carmelo Anthony is back for Denver and they are 2-10 ATS against Northwest Division opponents this season. Jefferson was brought in to add energy and wing player skills on the fast break; instead he’s averaging 12.1 points, his lowest since his rookie year. The Spurs are commonplace 14th in points scored and 12th in defensive field goal percentage, their highest figure since Tim Duncan’s rookie year (1997).

Denver (35-17, 24-25-3 ATS) has missed Anthony, just 4-3 in last seven outings, however is off best shooting night since Nov.17, as they destroyed Dallas 127-91, draining 60.8 percent from the field. With last offensive output, the Nuggets are 10-2 ATS after a combined score of 205 points or more in consecutive games this season.

Denver is a 5.5-point pick with total of 206 and is 23-4 (14-12 -1 ATS) at the Pepsi Center, winning by 10.2 PPG. The Nuggets are 43-24 ATS after playing a game as a home favorite since last year and are 18-8 OVER on their own floor after scoring 100 points or more three straight contests. San Antonio would like to end first leg of road trip on positive note, but are 15-29 ATS as a road underdog of six points or less since 2007. The Spurs are 9-1 UNDER as visitors after playing a road game this season.

Denver has won and covered three in a row over the Spurs, largely because they have outrebounded them by over 10 a game. This Western Conference conflict starts after preceding contest.

TNT Thursday NBA tilts

The Miami Heat hasn’t won back to back games twice in over five weeks and they will attempt to do so at home against their in-state and division rival Orlando. Miami has played nine games without consecutive victories and prior to that, their longest streak was three in a row from Nov. 4-10. Heat backers have seen enough losing bets they could hang all the “L’s” on a Christmas tree as ornaments and fill it up with 5-11 ATS mark in last 16 games.

Miami (12-11, 11-12 ATS) needs more scoring options besides Dwayne Wade and Michael Beasley is the person who has to elevate his game. Beasley was the No. 2 pick of the 2008 NBA draft yet finished seventh in the rookie of the year voting first season. Beasley has scored at least 20 points seven times this season and Miami is 4-3 when he does.

“I think it’s been long enough for me playing average,” Beasley said. “I’m just kind of mad at myself for not stepping out of the box. I’m kind of angry right now.”

The Heat tumbled Toronto 115-95 on Tuesday but is just 15-29 ATS off a home win over the last three seasons.

Orlando (19-6, 14-10-1 ATS) throttled the very same Raptors last evening 118-99, as Dwight Howard was close to a triple-double with 18 points, 14 rebounds and eight blocked shots.
“He’s a monster,” reserve forward Matt Barnes, told the NBA’s official Web site. “He gives the other players a chance to really get into their opponent, knowing if we get beat he has our back.”
The Magic will come into this contest 20-8 ATS on the road playing back-to-back days since 2007.

Bookmaker.com has Orlando as four-point road favorites, with a total of 201. The Magic lost a controversial 99-98 decision back on Nov.25 to Miami, where Orlando thought the game-winning basket was goaltending. The Magic are 23-9 ATS revenging a home loss.

According to the oddsmakers total, the pace of the game should suit the Heat, as they have 27-10 ATS home record when the total is between 200 and 204.5 points and they are 9-1 OVER after losing two of their last three games this season. Orlando has averaged 109.5 points per game in last four outings and is 17-5 UNDER after scoring 100 points or more four straight games.

After this contest, the scene shifts to the Northwest where Portland (15-11, 13-13 ATS) hosts Phoenix (17-8, 14-10-1 ATS). The Blazers have enough personnel injured to fill a ward at a hospital, with six players having missed 95-88 win over Sacramento. The most noticeable absence is Greg Oden, lost again for the season; however Portland has gotten used to playing without him. Even the coach missed time, as Nate McMillan is expected to be on the bench for a second straight time after missing four previous contests following surgery for a ruptured Achilles’ tendon. The Trailblazers are 32-15 ATS in home games after a game where they covered the spread over the last three seasons.

For Phoenix, this marks the end of a voodoo schedule the NBA handed them to start the year. The Suns have played a league-low nine home games and will have four straight and 10 of 12 at US Airways Center after tonight. Before then Phoenix will try to break December road slump, as they are 0-5 this month, at least having covered the last two games.

“We’ve been playing well at home (9-0, 5-3-1 ATS) and after this Portland game we’ll be home for a while and it would be nice to get a good road win against a good team,” forward Grant Hill said. “We’ve got a good opportunity (Thursday) night.”

The Suns top scoring offense (108.7 points per game) has flamed out in recent road assignments, not breaking the century mark in four consecutive tries.

Phoenix has a rather peculiar trend going tonight. In their last win over San Antonio, they only sunk seven of 13 free throws and they are 12-3 ATS after a game where they made 60 percent or worse from the charity stripe.

Portland is two-point pick according to oddsmakers with total of 201. At first glance, the total would seem to be a negative for Phoenix being this low, yet they are 27-18 ATS on the road when the total is between 200 and 204.5 points. Those setting the numbers also have a beat on Suns defense, since they are 9-1 UNDER after allowing 100 points or more three straight games this season.The Blazers almost always are tough to beat at the Rose Garden and they can contain excellent deep shooting teams like the Suns, since they are 14-4 ATS in home games versus good 3-point shooting clubs making 36 percent or more of their attempts. Portland is 32-13 UNDER when the total is 200 to 209.5 over the last three years.

Both of these conflicts are on TNT with the first game starting just after 8 Eastern.

Magic the favorite in uphill battle

Based on Friday’s accounts of Game 4 between Los Angeles and Orlando, Magic head coach Stan Van Gundy should have been the lead story at the top of every newscast and .com website, since he alone is the reason Orlando failed to tie the series at 2-2 and reportedly killed his team’s chance to be NBA champions. One problem with that thinking, it’s often incorrect. Did Van Gundy error, likely so, he should have had his players foul at almost any point in the final 10.8 seconds, but give Los Angeles a ton of credit, as they perfectly executed out of bounds play that led to Derrick Fisher’s game-tying shot in regulation.

Van Gundy didn’t have the luxury of calling timeout when Jameer Nelson decided to play zone against Fisher at most critical point, in a game known for man defense. Van Gundy played a hunch and he’s being crucified, but let’s not lose sight of another important factor, with 32 seconds remaining in overtime, the score was tied at 91. At that juncture, both teams were still in position to take the game, the Lakers snatched it and the Magic did not.

Van Gundy should be blamed for playing Nelson, when his best option was Rafer Alston, good or bad. It was evident from the first time Nelson took the court in the series, two to three minute stints would be the most useful way to utilize player who hadn’t seen the court in four months. Van Gundy’s trust or lack of in Alston betrayed him and his team fell to 40-12 and 29-23 ATS as home.

Orlando is 21-8 ATS revenging a home loss vs opponent, but unless they do all the little things (keep in mind everything counts), they won’t improve that record. Reports had Dwight Howard choking for missing two free throws late; however he just reverted to being Superman shooting kryptonite as he had done much of the season. Missing 15 of 37 attempts from the charity stripe will cause almost any team to lose and the 17 turnovers led directly to 16 L.A. points.

The Magic find themselves in this predicament because they failed to match Lakers intensity in second half and scored a grand total of 42 points in last 29 minutes. Orlando is 14-5 ATS when playing with two days rest this season and has to play like a team that is absolutely desperate. Feed the ball into Howard, who must be decisive and go to the basket with authority. When he has the ball for more then two seconds, evil events often occur (seven turnovers in last contest), Howard has to be powerful and demanding.

Van Gundy has to somehow convince Alston he’s his guy (good luck) and get him mentally back into focus. Rashard Lewis is the only player in the Finals that makes Lamar Odom look a bastion of mental rock-solid stability. Wouldn’t you like to know where these players go during games? It appears Lewis should have sugar levels tested frequently throughout any given.

Orlando has again opened as three-point favorites at DiamondSportsbook.com to send the series back to other coast, with total at 198.5. The Magic have liked Sunday’s well enough, sporting a 9-3 ATS record and are 9-1 UNDER after a game where they made 60 percent of their free throws or less this season.

What makes this a challenging wager is the Lakers mindset. They haven’t always brought A-game on the road this postseason. The purple-clad team from L.A. has been a brilliant road underdog, with 11-3 ATS record this season and Kobe Bryant assuredly will have his mad face on, trying to win a championship and not have to share the limelight with a star player of equal status, giving him an argosy of tales and memories to cherish. The Lake Show hasn’t been as profitable on Sunday’s with 3-7 ATS record and is 13-3-1 UNDER on this day of the week.

It will be interesting to watch Van Gundy, does he continue to play his hunches or go more by the book, unless the players execute, either way can be wrong. Game 5 starts at just after 8 Eastern, with the underdog now 8-1 against the spread when these teams compete against one another.

I'm back and so is Game 4 for NBA Finals

The NBA Playoffs offer so much insight into the teams, coaches and players, one can’t help but be excited about all the strategy changes and maneuvering if you are true basketball fan and wagering on games. Sometimes the boxscore’s paint a picture and other times they don’t, just like Game 3. Would it seem possible Orlando would take nine fewer three-point tries than the Lakers, convert three less than Los Angeles and still come out on top? The high quality adjustment made by Magic coach Stan Van Gundy, having his squad push the ball at every opportunity, before the slow-reacting Lakers defenders reacted, helped Orlando shoot 62.5 percent, yet the Magic had the same number of fast break points as L.A. (10)

This all adds to tremendous intrigue for Game 4. It is the Lakers turn to adjust, having to win one of the next two contests in Central Florida, really placing the pressure on Orlando to win twice on the Left Coast. Oddsmakers in part see Los Angeles making the right moves, as DiamondSportsbook.com has them as 2.5-point underdogs, down from 4.5 in last contest. The Lakers are 10-2 ATS as an underdog this season and many people can’t foresee them being so off-kilter a second game in a row.

Los Angeles defenders took almost every fake, reacted poorly on defensive rotations, seldom getting a hand in the face of shooter or giving them clear path to the goal, like the Magic had free pass. L.A. shot free throws, well like Dwight Howard used to, converting on 16 of 26. At various points, Lamar Odom, Derek Fisher and Andrew Bynum played like some of the Seven Dwarfs (feel free to make this interactive article, by filling in your own matching dwarf with player performance). Kobe Bryant didn’t look like Kobe at crunch time and they will need him to have reversal of fortune quickly or this series will be 2-2.

For Los Angeles to improve on 14-6 ATS record as road underdog of 4.5 or less points, Lakers guards have to do better job feeding the post to Pau Gasol and Odom and they need to be more alert and ready. Hustle back on defense and be ready to defend the entire shot clock time, not just the parts that fit into schedule. Offensively, a more conventional return to triangle offensive, since isolation and top of the key screen and rolls were well defended by Orlando and might have contributed to Bryant appearing so fatigued late in the contest.

Orlando didn’t cover, but won the game. They are well-suited 20-6 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season. The Magic played at tempo more suitable to players like Rafer Alston and Dwight Howard in Game 3. Alston’s ability to push the ball led to more open shots, (which he made) and Howard’s skill as athlete showed thru, as he also ran the floor and made hard cuts to the hoop.
Hedu Turkoglu was a dominant contributor, even making just one three-pointer, dishing the ball for seven assists, while converting 7 of 12 shots. Mickael Pietrus toasted L.A. for 18 points and played physical with Kobe and the Magic double-teams were better timed, making Bryant less effective.

Game 3’s total was Over and oddsmakers adjusted upward, raising the figure to 201.5. This is potentially swell news for Orlando backers, with the Magic 12-3 ATS at home game when the total is between 200 and 204.5 points. Van Gundy’s team needs to set the tempo and they are 12-4 UNDER at Amway Arena after a combined score of 205 points or more this season. The Lakers like-wise have to bring aggressiveness shown in four prior games, to first conflict in Orlando and are 13-3 UNDER off a road loss this year, winning by an average of over eight points per contest.

Game 4 will come down to adjustments and execution, though bettors might just want to ride the tide with underdog 7-1 ATS and the OVER 6-0 in Florida when these two clubs meet.

NBA Finals Preview

“Do you believe in Magic”

Whether you like the original hit song by the Lovin’ Spoonful from 1965 and the countless times it has been used in television commercials or the updated version by Disney Channel’s Aly and AJ, the question remains the same.

Do you believe in the Orlando Magic?

Dwight Howard and his gang of long range bombers have certainly been up to the test, eliminating Philadelphia as expected, Boston as presumed (without Kevin Garnett) and Cleveland most unexpectedly. In many ways Orlando has grown up right before our very eyes.
The Magic gave away games to the Sixers and Celtics, yet closed out each on the road to advance. When LeBron James made thaumaturgy shot to save Cleveland in Game 2 of East Finals, Orlando could have suffered carry over, yet did not.

We have seen the maturation of Dwight Howard from somewhat passive Clark Kent to angry superstar, demanding the ball and when the pill came his way, put up exemplary numbers to lead his team. Even coach Stan Van Gundy, who has been come under much scrutiny (here for example), has grown as head coach, working out details with Howard and not letting ego get in the way and has his team four wins away from being NBA champions.

Do you believe in the Magic?

Oddsmakers, like those at DiamondSportsbook.com don’t seem to, making the Lakers -260 favorites to take the series. The most popular exact game wager is Los Angeles in six (+220 bet). Others don’t necessarily see it that way.

Mark Lawrence of Playbook.com offered this about The Finals - “Interesting technical aspects conflict in this matchup. The Lakers have been miserable in championship finals the past two rounds, going 3-8 SU and 0-10-1 ATS. On the flip side they've pushed the Magic around in the series, going 29-10 SU and 24-12-1 ATS, despite dropping both games this season. The feeling here is it would be no surprise if either team wins.”

Also made a call to Joe Nelson of Nellysports.com, who is on the Playbook roster and he gave his insights. “The Magic made at least ten 3-point shots in all four games against the Lakers in the regular season the last two years, winning three of the four games. Orlando shot over 40 percent in the Eastern Conference Finals and if they continue to shoot well from long-range, the Magic will win this series and become the NBA champions.”

Nelson added, “The Lakers are a heavy favorite for the series but with the Magic winning twice in Los Angeles in the regular season (last two years), it would not be a surprise to see Orlando steal one of the first two games. Much like last season the Finals will feature extreme coast-to-coast travel with over 2,500 miles separating these venues. The Lakers went 0-6 ATS in Finals last season and Los Angeles was just 5-5 ATS in home contests in the first three rounds of the playoffs. With two impressive wins to wipe out Denver in the Western Conference Finals the Lakers have alleviated some of the concerns raised early in the playoffs but this will be a tough match-up for Los Angeles and Orlando has the talent and versatility to be a serious threat in the series despite the solid underdog status.”

Orlando has given several reasons to like them. The Magic are 12-7 in the playoffs and after dropping first four games to Philly as favorites, they are 11-4 ATS since. Orlando is 5-5 SU and ATS on the road under postseason pressure and 32-19 straight up and against the number for the entire season. Hedo Turkoglu and the fellas can play with teams scoring bundles of points, because of perimeter shooting and are 16-4 ATS in road games versus offensive clubs scoring 103 or more points a game.

The Lakers have shown unwillingness to go all out until necessary since the playoffs started, which could prove fatal against Orlando. Denver made a ton of long range shots in first four encounters against Lakers, due to poor defensive rotations. Derek Fisher is still defensive liability and Lamar Odom; it depends which multiple personality shows up at game time. Howard has the strength and power to push around Pau Gasol and draw fouls expediently on Andrew Bynum.

“Do you believe in Magic”

Steve Makinen of StatFox.com thinks Orlando can cause Phil Jackson’s squad trouble, just not enough to wager against them. “Last I saw, Orlando swept this regular season series, while the Lakers took both games from the Cavaliers. In my opinion, oddsmakers have inflated the line of Game 1 of the NBA Finals by at least 1-1/2 points, installing L.A. as a 6-point favorite. If you recall last year, Los Angeles was overwhelmed in the finals by an outstanding defensive club in Boston. While Orlando isn’t quite as good overall or defensively as that team, the Magic are still strong enough to compete and possibly win this series. In the end I figure it comes down to how well Orlando shoots it from the perimeter. If it’s anything like the regular season in which the Magic made 12 3-point shots in each game versus the Lakers, they will win. However, I think the series format of home court advantage (2-3-2) favors L.A., and that will be the deciding factor.”

Everything since being humiliated 131-92 in Game 6 at Boston last year has pointed to this for Los Angeles. The Lakers are well-rested and are 8-1 ATS when playing only their second game in seven days this season. Gasol showed his wherewithal in making big baskets in Games 5 and 6 against Denver and could force Howard into foul trouble if he becomes overaggressive.

Rashard Lewis and Turkoglu are primarily perimeter players and if Odom shows up mentally and Trevor Ariza continues to distinguish himself, the Lakers should be able to hold down the scoring of this duo. On the other end of the floor, Odom can be a handful for either, with inside and outside capabilities. The Lakers bench has become increasingly more useful, as the dates have come off the calendar since the end of the regular season. Jordan Farmar, Shannon Brown and Luke Walton have all given efficient minutes since mid-May.

Then you have the “Kobe” factor. Bryant was denied ring he so dearly wants last season and has been on a mission since. He’s still selfish from time to time, however, in the last couple of years, that has had more to do with desire to win, than just wanting to improve image. Whether it is Courtney Lee or Mickael Pietrus trying to defend Bryant, he should school them individually and carve up Magic defense when they try and double team with his crisp, accurate passes.

Lastly, is the coaching difference. Phil Jackson was strangely out-maneuvered by Doc Rivers last spring, however in hindsight, Boston had more players motivated towards a cause and Rivers pushed all the right buttons with what was a better team. Jackson was at his best against Denver. After getting a read on exactly what the Nuggets were doing, he had his team effectively took away what Denver did best in last two games and Chauncey Billups and Carmelo Anthony were disabled after strong beginning.

Like any coach, when things are going well, they look smart, when they don’t, it’s about how they react. If the Magic lose first two games at Staples Center, does the surly side of Van Gundy return? If the Lakers are able to deny Howard touches, does that create more friction between Superman and the coach? It has been Van Gundy’s M.O. to micromanage when situations become stressful, how will he respond? This could be telling factor in this series.

The action starts Thursday night on ABC, with Lakers as 6.5-point favorites and total of 206. Before placing wager, know the underdog is on 6-0 ATS roll.

Do you believe in the Orlando Magic?