2010 NFL Schedule Observations

The National Football League generated their annual buzz with the release of the schedule. Each home teams fan base immediately started speculating what their team’s record might look like except for Minnesota (they have grandfatherly quarterback from the South who likes to take his time) and Oakland (who doesn’t know the Raiders will have losing record). Sports bettors also like to think about the future, especially the prime time matchups. We’ll start with key games on Thursday, Sunday and Monday nights, all prime wagering territories.

Thursday feels different

The NFL took John Madden’s advice from several years ago and has made opening weekend a big deal, just like baseball does. That includes a top shelf game to whet the football appetite and Minnesota at New Orleans certainly fits the bill. The home teams are 7-1 and 5-1-2 ATS since this was introduced.

The NFL started sneaking in Thursday games a few years ago and had a more complete slate in the second half starting last year. In order to keep their partners from FOX and CBS happy, for the most part the games lacked pizzazz with mostly mediocre teams playing.

Not this year, bettors will see Baltimore at Atlanta (Week 10), Cincinnati at the N.Y. Jets (Thanksgiving night) and Indianapolis at Tennessee (Week 14) to name a few quality matchups.

Sunday Night Adventures

Since NBC took over the Sunday night package, sports bettors have made this an instant turnaround scenario. This is mostly square action, with NFL bettors trying to cover losses or pressing wins seeking the bigger score. While neither strategy is recommended, no debating the quality of games this far out before the season begins.

Week 1 we have the traditional Dallas and Washington rivalry, almost always good theatre. A number of other excellent divisional matchups will take place like the Jets at Miami (Week 3), the Giants at Philadelphia (Week 11), Pittsburgh at Baltimore (Week 13) and the Eagles at Cowboys (Week 14). One other confrontation could be a ratings bonanza with Minnesota and certain quarterback, visiting his former place of employment Green Bay on October 25.

The Packers are also involved in other entertaining contests, hosting Jerry Jones club in Week 9 and making trip to New England for the first time in eight years on Dec. 19.

Week 2 will conjure up a great deal of intrigue in the “Manning Brothers Bowl” at Indianapolis.

Monday’s with Tirico, Chucky and Jaws

A good portion of last year’s Monday action was terrific, especially early in the year. John Gruden’s enthusiasm carried thru and he and Ron Jaworski talked football for three hours making the booth more true football fan friendly.

Their first assignment is Baltimore at the New York Jets, with Rex Ryan going up against his former team. Later that same night, San Diego makes another opening game appearance on MNF versus another division rival, Kansas City, where they are 3-8 ATS.

This season will feature 13 division rivalry contests, always a treat for the sports bettors with the most anticipated one being Philadelphia in rematch at Donovan McNabb’s new crib in Washington on Nov. 15.

There is only one non-conference hookup and hostility could be in the air if Brett Favre actually does return. Minnesota will visit the new Meadowlands and the New York Jets, which will down as an asterisk in his storied career and one Jets’ fans will not forget for many reasons.

Changes in the schedule

Roger Goodell tried to address the last part of the schedule to become more meaningful and all 16 games the final Sunday of the season will be divisional contests. While some question what Oakland at Kansas City and St. Louis at Seattle might mean, this writer applauds the effort in trying to make the end of the season not just several exhibitions that count in the standings.

In all, 28 division games will be played the last three weeks of the year (29.1 percent of the total).

The NFL has graciously stepped aside from the World Series for years on Sunday night’s in late October, but with falling ratings for the former national pastime, Goodell and the guys decided to make baseball’s life that much more difficult with Nov. 1 conflict of Pittsburgh at New Orleans.

A few scheduling observations………….

No team has a duller schedule than Buffalo. Besides no national TV games, all 16 Sunday contests have a 1:00 Eastern start time.

San Diego is notoriously slow starter, however anything less than 4-2 with at Kansas City, Jacksonville, at Seattle, Arizona, at Oakland and at St. Louis would qualify as not mentally prepared.

Cincinnati is seeking first back to back winning seasons in 28 years with fourth toughest schedule.

Kansas City will have Play Against sequences, with three pairs of two road games.

Cleveland won their last four contests a season ago and could start 2-0 going to Tampa Bay and hosting the Chiefs. The Browns close to the year is taxing. Three straight road games Weeks 13-15 and finishing at home with division rivals Baltimore and Pittsburgh.

Denver has three consecutive road games in Week 13-15.

Houston has Indianapolis at home and three of next four games against the NFC East to begin 2010.

Washington was 4-12 in 2009; however the power of Mike Shanahan leads to five national tilts.

The Super Bowl champion New Orleans Saints move to the role of hunted and first road test in at San Francisco on Monday night.

Dallas finally broke late season blues; however they could return having to face (@) the Colts, Philly, Redskins, (@) Cardinals and (@) Eagles in final five weeks.

Matt Leinart will receive a quick baptism as the Arizona starting quarterback again with three of first four games on the road.

The Cardinals and Detroit have three consecutive home games in Weeks 12-14.

The Falcons have a road game on Oct. 17 and don’t wear visiting uniforms again until Nov. 21 with three home contests and a bye.

Pittsburgh will play three home games and three road games without suspended Ben Roethlisberger and when he returns three consecutive national telecasts at the Saints, Cincy and home with New England.

The normally profitable West to East three time zone games have nine occurrences, with seven having a 1:00 Eastern start (10:00 Pacific for West Coast teams). This is usually the best value early in the season, before teams have traveled much and the Falcons have Arizona and San Fran in town the first four weeks of regular season.

The Sunday Setup

Closed with a 2-1-1 day and have a system on a sorry NFL underdog that is 28-6 ATS. Speaking of pooches, have a great angles on another dog at 84.6 percent. The Free Play is an AFC divisional matchup. Good Luck

What I know today – Being a sports bettor is much easier than betting horses. (Lots of longshots at Turf Paradise yesterday and the #5 cashed the first eight races)

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Football System -1) Play On teams like Washington after being beaten by the spread by more than 28 points in their previous contest, in conference games. Since 2004, this system is 28-6 ATS, 82.4 percent.

Free Football Trend-2) The Houston Texans are 11-2 ATS in the second of back to back road games.

Free Football Pick -3) Sal has hit seven of last nine plays in the NFL and has Pittsburgh as his play.

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New York might need bailout in Washington

With their season on the line, the New York Giants came up short at home again versus Philadelphia last week, losing a high scoring affair 45-38. Although not mathematically dead in the playoff race, their hopes are on life support, with two of their final three games on the road. This perilous position means the Giants have to sweep Washington for the third time in the last four years to keep dreams alive of a fifth straight postseason bid.

A week after beating the Cowboys, New York (6-7 ATS) lost a fourth straight game to the Eagles at the Meadowlands and fell to third place in the division with a record of 7-6. Philadelphia sits at 10-4 and Dallas is 9-5. Washington (6-7 ATS) brings up the rear in the NFC East at 4-9 and comes into this Monday night game off a victory at Oakland. The G-Men will come to Washington 17-5 ATS after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored.

Unlike recent seasons (18-6 SU & ATS the last three years as visitors including postseason), New York has floundered of late away from home, losing its last three games both SU and ATS, by at least 20 points each time. They’ll look to break that skid with a fourth straight win in Washington against a Redskins team set on spoiling any remaining hopes for its division rival. The Giants are 15-4 ATS in road games against NFC opposition.

Washington D.C. is known for stirring debates and rumors flying (among many other things) and the latest involves Mike Shanahan being the next coach of the Redskins. Present head coach Jim Zorn swallowed his pride earlier and gave up control of calling plays, yet apparently never lost his team despite all the distractions.

Washington has continued to play hard and only one of their nine losses has been by more than 10 points, proving their competitiveness. After losing three consecutive games by seven total points, they routed the Raiders 34-13 as 2.5-point road favorites and have covered the spread five straight times.

Among those that have shown improvement is quarterback Jason Campbell. The former Auburn signal caller has gone thru almost as many offensive coordinators as Tiger Woods “indiscretions”, but has been more consistent with 2,946 yards passing, 17 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. He’ll set career highs in all three categories, but it’s up for debate whether or not he’s still the quarterback of the future, turning 28 years old on New Year’s Eve.

Run defense was Washington’s focus during the offseason—it signed Pro Bowl tackle Albert Haynesworth to a $100 million contract—yet still allows 117.5 yards per game. That is no fault of Haynesworth, who has battled nagging injuries the last two months and he and his teammates have given up only 122 yards on the ground the last two games. That isn’t necessarily a good omen, as the Skins are 0-7 ATS after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in two straight games since 2007. For the Washington optimist, whose party controls the House or Senate, the Redskins are 9-1 ATS versus offensive teams like the Giants (382.4 YPG) averaging 375 or more yards per game in the second half of the season.

DiamondSportsbook.com has New York as three-point favorites with total of 43.5. These teams renewed their rivalry in Week 1 and the Giants held on for a 23-17 victory at home after building a 17-point lead late in the first half. Mario Manningham caught a 30-yard touchdown pass from Eli Manning, Osi Umenyiora returned a Jason Campbell fumble 37 yards for a touchdown and kicker Lawrence Tynes booted three field goals to account for New York’s scoring. Manning’s squad has won and covered three in a row at FedEx Field, however is 0-5 ATS in last five favorite roles and 4-10-1 ATS on Monday’s.

Despite their spread streak, Washington is 3-9 ATS at home, nonetheless has covered last four times dressed up as hogs, whoops, underdogs. Six of the last eight games at Washington have gone OVER when these teams meet.

New York covers if the offensive line plays up to previous standards and controls the action. Like most quarterbacks, Manning is not nearly as effective when he’s getting knocked around. The front five has to give him time and the Giants offensive coaches need to be more patient in the run game. They feeling from New York observers is if the offense doesn’t pick up a couple of first downs running in a particular drive, Tom Coughlin’s staff is quick to pull the trigger and start passing almost exclusively. Given time, Manning should pick apart the Redskins middle defense since the safeties couldn’t cover the Giants’ receivers with a bolt of Christmas wrapping paper.

Washington covers if the secondary can rough up the G-Men’s youthful wide receivers. At times, alligator arms have been seen by various New York pass catchers over the middle, and Redskins’ safeties love to deliver big shots. Washington’s pass rush has hit another gear and with the Giants’ tackles faulty in pass protection and not picking up stunts properly, they could create chaos in the pocket. Tight end Fred Davis has become Campbell’s go-to-guy if Santana Moss is covered. Davis is big and can get down the field to cause Giant(s) headaches (that’s terrible) for the team in blue.

Monday Night System – Play On home team whose opponent surrendered 35 or more points in previous game. (18-5 ATS, 78.2 percent)

Steve Makinen of The Platinum Sheet and College and Pro Football Weekly contributed to this article.

NFL Week 12 Previews

Thought this would be a good time for a changeup this week in the NFL. We’ll make a run through the entire Sunday day time slate, paraphrasing what Joe Friday from Dragnet used to say, “Just the facts please”. Take a look at key information on both sides and totals action for Week 12 of the NFL season. Lines courtesy of DiamondSportsbook.com.

INDIANAPOLIS (-3.5, 47.5) at HOUSTON 1:00E CBS

The Texans (5-5, 5-4-1 ATS) come into Sunday’s game vs. Indianapolis as winners of their previous eight games as a home underdog against the spread. In six of those, they won outright but the two straight up losses came at the hands of the Colts, who won at Reliant Stadium by four points in both 2007 and 2008. Going back even further, Houston has won just once in seven home tries vs. Indianapolis, but has compiled a competitive 5-2 ATS mark. If the Colts (10-0, 6-4 ATS), who remain undefeated after winning at Baltimore, have had any weak spot when it comes to pointspreads, it’s been in divisional play, 7-14 ATS dating back to 2006. The Texans are 6-2 ATS in their last eight AFC South home games. Their contests vs. division foes have been high scoring as well, with 16-6 OVER mark.

CLEVELAND at CINCINNATI (-13, 39.5) 1:00 CBS

The Browns (1-9, 4-6 ATS) nearly handed Cincinnati a defeat back in Week 4, falling 23-20. That game was in Cleveland, and marked the third straight win in the head-to-head series by the visiting team. This second meeting is at Paul Brown Stadium in the Queen City, and would seem to favor Cleveland based upon that last trend, but unfortunately, the Browns have been dreadful, particularly on the road, being outscored by 14.5 points per game while going 1-5 SU & 3-3 ATS. The latest debacle was in Detroit where they lost 38-37, giving up a 24-3 lead. For the Bengals (7-3, 6-4 ATS), off the upset loss in Oakland, they have gotten to the top of the AFC North thanks to their performance against divisional foes. This will in fact be their last division game of 2009, and they are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS to date. Cincinnati is shredding poor pass defenses and is 16-3 ATS vs. teams allowing seven or more passing yards per attempt in the second half of the season.

CHICAGO at MINNESOTA (-11, 47) 4:15E FOX

The Vikings (6-3-1 ATS) wrap up a season long three-game homestand when they host Chicago. This head-to-head series has been one dominated by home teams in recent years, 11-2 SU and 10-3 ATS since 2002. It will be the first matchup of 2009, with the next one in just four weeks. Chicago (4-6 ATS) has dropped five of its last six games to fall to 4-6, and with the logjam of teams in the NFC wildcard hunt, postseason hopes are dimming. The Bears boast a record of 25-12 ATS in November road contests, 8-5-1 ATS under coach Lovie Smith. The Vikings, now 9-1 after beating Seattle, have swept their divisional opponents so far this season, going 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS. Last November’s 34-14 win by host Minnesota marked the first time in six games where the winning margin was more than 10 points. Chicago’s collapse could be extended since they are 0-7 ATS in road games vs. offensive teams scoring 29 or more points a contest, losing by almost 24 point a game.

WASHINGTON at PHILADELPHIA (-9.5, 40.5) 1:00E FOX

Washington faces a second straight divisional road tilt when it travels to Philadelphia (6-4 SU & ATS). The Redskins (3-7 ATS) look for better results than what happened in Dallas, a 7-6 defeat that dropped their record to 3-7. That was Washington’s third straight divisional loss of 2009; however they’ve won their last two games in Philly, both as 6-1/2 point underdogs. The Eagles won the first meeting between these teams back on Monday night, October 26th, 27-17. That marked the fifth time in six games that the visiting team won outright. Head coach Andy Reid’s team is 1-1 SU & ATS vs. divisional foes at home this season and just 2-7 ATS in that scenario dating back four seasons. However, they are 25-10 ATS vs. bad teams (Win Pct. 25% to 40%), and 18-9 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points in his tenure.

MIAMI (-3, 39) at BUFFALO 1:00E CBS

The Dolphins are .500 for the first time this season, and as much as it’s been an uphill climb to this point, it gets even tougher, as Miami (5-5 ATS) will be without stud running back Ronnie Brown against a challenging end of the year slate. This one at Buffalo is the easiest on paper, as the Bills (3-7, 5-5 ATS) are struggling and just last week fired their coach. Plus, the Dolphins boast an impressive 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS mark on the road in divisional play under coach Tony Sparano. They will however, be looking to snap a skid of eight straight ATS losses vs. poor offensive teams gaining 285 or fewer yards per game. Buffalo averages just 275.7 yards and is scoring just 13.2 points per game in its four home contests of 2009 (1-3 SU & ATS). The Bills are 8-4 SU and ATS in last dozen hosting Miami, and had won four straight prior to the last season’s defeat.

ARIZONA at TENNESSEE (-2, 45) 4:15 FOX

Arizona has yet to lose on the road in five games this season, covering four of them. A sixth straight win will be a challenge though, as the Cardinals (7-3, 6-4 ATS) will be visiting Tennessee, a team that seems to have awaken from the dead. After dropping their first six games, the Titans (4-6, 5-5 ATS) have rallied with running back Chris Johnson insisting they would finish 10-6. Considering HC Jeff Fisher’s team won its first 10 games on 2008, maybe the boast wasn’t so outlandish. If the winning streak is still intact after Monday, Tennessee looks to make it five straight and extend a 32-14 ATS record vs. NFC foes under Fisher. Arizona has gotten hot itself, winning six of seven, regaining the Super Bowl form of 2008. Under Ken Whisenhunt, the Cards are 8-0 ATS vs. teams allowing 350 or more yards per contest and Tennessee concedes 376. Given the Titans turnaround, don’t ignore their 7-0 ATS mark after gaining 150 or more rushing yards in three straight games.

SEATTLE (-4, 42.5) at ST LOUIS 1:00E FOX

A strange NFL scheduling twist finds St. Louis (1-9, 5-5 ATS) wrapping up a three-game homestand against Seattle (3-7 SU & ATS), a team finishing off a three-game road trip. Not only are three-game swings rare in general, but teams squaring off in opposite ends is almost unheard of. It will be the second meeting between the divisional rivals of 2009, with the Seahawks having taken the season opener 27-0 at home. It was their fifth straight win in the head-to-head series, both SU & ATS. In St. Louis, Seattle has taken four straight, none by more than six-points however. The Rams are on a 3-12 ATS slide vs. division foes, and 7-22 ATS in same-season revenge spots. A win by either side would be the first of the year in the current home/road setup, with Seattle 0-5 away, and St. Louis 0-5 as host.

TAMPA BAY at ATLANTA (-12, 46) 1:00E FOX

With two head-to-head matchups in the final six weeks of their respective schedules, Tampa Bay (1-9, 5-7 ATS) will have the chance to really impact Atlanta’s playoff hopes. As it is, those hopes are already fading, as the Falcons (5-5, 3-7 ATS) have lost four of five games to slip back to .500. They have been solid at home however, going 4-0 SU and ATS in 2009, and 11-1 SU & 9-3 ATS in the year-and-half under HC Mike Smith. His team starts a key three-game homestand here against a Buccaneers’ team that has won just once, and is 1-13 SU and 4-10 ATS in its last 14 tilts overall. Tampa Bay has gotten the better of the head-to-head series between these divisional rivals of late, offering a 12-5 SU and ATS in last 12 years, including 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS over the last two. Atlanta has not been double-digit chalk since 2005 and the favorite is 16-5-2 ATS in this series.

CAROLINA at NY JETS (-3.5, 41.5)1:00E FOX

Both the Panthers’ and Jets’ playoff hopes took a serious hit this past week, as losses dropped each team to 4-6 with six games left. It might take a miracle for both clubs, as their remaining schedules, particularly in late December, are loaded with quality opponents. It’s hard to believe that New York (4-6 ATS) was once 3-0 and headed to a showdown with New Orleans. Including that setback, the Jets have lost six of seven games, with the last three at home, all by five points or less. The Panthers (4-6 ATS) have gone the opposite direction by winning four of seven games since their 0-3 start. However, their home loss to the Dolphins 10 days ago was a killer. They are 0-2 SU and ATS vs. AFC foes in 2009 after going 4-0 ATS a year ago and 0-4 ATS in ’07. New York is on a 4-13 ATS slide vs. losing teams, while Carolina is 12-4-2 ATS as a road underdog of three or less.

JACKSONVILLE at SAN FRANCISCO (-3, 41.5) 4:05E CBS

The old saying indicates that if it quacks like a duck and walks like a duck, it must be a duck. Well, Jacksonville (4-6 ATS) doesn’t look like a playoff team, and is being outscored by opponents (19.9 to 23.5) while allowing 5.9 yards per play, yet if the postseason started today, the 6-4 Jaguars would be in. They begin a stretch of three straight games that could have a great bearing on their eventual fortunes. This game vs. San Francisco will be followed up by a three-game homestand, all vs. AFC playoff contenders. Consider today the Jags are 3-12 ATS when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points. Head coach Jack Del Rio’s team is on a 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS slide vs. NFC foes. The 49ers (6-2-2 ATS) dropped to 4-6 by losing at Green Bay, yet boast superior numbers in this matchup. The Niners are 6-1-2 ATS vs. teams with winning record. These squads have met twice previously, never in San Francisco. Both games went UNDER, with the 49ers totaling 12 points and they are 8-0 UNDER after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous contest.

KANSAS CITY at SAN DIEGO (-13.5, 45) 4:05E CBS

San Diego has completed the journey back to the top of the AFC West and will try to protect that lead when it hosts divisional rival Kansas City. The Chargers (5-5 ATS) are 7-3 and face only two remaining opponents boasting a winning record at this point. This will be the second meeting of ’09, with San Diego winning 37-7 win at Arrowhead in Week 7. That could be an important score since the Chiefs (3-7, 5-5 ATS) are on an 8-1 ATS run revenging a loss in which they scored 14 points or less. Kansas City has also played competitively on the road vs. AFC West rivals, covering four straight times against the number. Coach Norv Turner’s team is 0-2 ATS as a divisional host this season after going 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in its previous five. Underdogs have gone 7-2 ATS in previous meetings of the series in San Diego, with the SU winner 24-5-2 ATS since 1994.


Written by Steve Makinen of StatFox.com.
Doug Upstone contributed to this article.

NFL Week 10 Plays

Actually feel a little guilty, but we have gotten this far doing what we are doing. Marty was 6-1 yesterday to continue his torrid pace in CFB, but he lost his top pick which was Kansas State which he gave out here. Marty, stay hot my friend. We ended up 4-1 in CFB here this week and have the absolutely Best NFL System we have had all year running today at 96 percent, holy ****. The Top Trend involves tonight’s big Patriots and Colts matchup. Good Luck

New Poll Question at bottom of the page

What I thought yesterday- Isn’t the point of instantly replay to get the call right? Three more instances witnessed where an obvious call was wrong by these people after reviewing. Either get it right or scrap it.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Football System-1) Play On home teams like Washington after failing to cover the spread in three out of their last four games, have winning percent of 25 percentage less, playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. Best system found this year, 24-1 ATS, 96 percent.

Free Football Trend-2) The New England Patriots are 13-2 ATS vs. excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards a game after eight or games since 1992.

Free Football Pick -3) Sal was 5-0 in the NFL last week and 9-3 in last dozen and punched the Jets ticket for his biggest winner today.

We have Division Game of the Month and Paul Buck has another Guaranteed Upset Winner!

Monday Night Football Mystery

The Monday night game matches a pair of NFC East divisional rivals coming off bitter losses as significant favorites. Washington lost at home to Kansas City 14-6 as 6.5-point home favorites to fall to 2-4 on the season, and this will actually be the first time since Week 1 that they are matched against a quality opponent. That is a questionable description of Philadelphia though coming off the 13-9 loss at Oakland as two touchdown road chalk.

Here we are after six weeks into the season and the Redskins will finally line up against an opponent with a win under its belt. That’s right. Washington’s first six games came against a team yet to win: New York Giants (0-0), St. Louis (0-1), Detroit (0-2), Tampa Bay (0-3), Carolina (0-3) and Kansas City (0-5). Its next one comes against a team that just lost to the Raiders, who were outscored on either side of Eagles game 82-7. Head coach Jim Zorn received the dreaded vote of confidence that he will be the coach the rest of the season, but his play calling duties have been supplanted by veteran coach Sherm Lewis, whose most recent job was calling bingo numbers.

Off for two weeks after this contest, the Redskins have struggled offensively going into the bye week of late, scoring 13.4 points in its last 10 tries, resulting in eight UNDER's. Those numbers favor comparably with Washington scoring 13.2 points per game on the season and 10.3 at FedEx Field.

Washington is 3-9-3 ATS in last 15 encounters and it’s no secret owner Daniel Snyder and members of the front office are unimpressed with Zorn’s offensive acumen, the very reason he was hired. The Redskins are in a bad situation offensively. Jason Campbell is seemingly no better than when he was drafted out of Auburn in 2005. The offensive line is again in turmoil with injuries and Clinton Porter is no longer an explosive running back. This is a deadly combination for a team that is on 1-8 ATS home streak.

For as tough a town as Philadelphia (3-2 SU & ATS) is, it was bewildering the Eagles Andy Reid and Eagles players weren’t crucified for lack of focus and effort in Oakland. Forget the Raiders pride was hurt by harsh words from Giants players, no excuses for all the Philadelphia players to be out-hustled and out-played by a team that might have three players who could start for them.

"It's a great lesson to learn that no team is as good as you think in this league and no team is as bad as you think in this league," coach Reid said. "It's the National Football League and you better be ready every week to play and execute as coaches and players and it starts with me." The bespectacled coach is 39-23 ATS after one or more losses and 16-4 ATS in road games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better.

The Eagles have flown to 7.5-point favorites after opening at 6.5, with total having sunk to 37.5 at DiamondSportsbook.com. This is Philadelphia’s first divisional contest of 2009, and they are on a 5-1 ATS run on the road vs. their fellow rivals. The Eagles are on a 9-5 SU and 9-4-1 ATS run in Washington with 12 of the last 16 meetings going UNDER in the nation’s capitol.

The Eagles cover if don’t forget to run the ball. The fourteen rush attempts last week is totally ridiculous given it was a four point contest. Reid and his coaches have to stay committed to Brian Westbrook and LeSean McCoy. The left side of the Philadelphia offensive line is hurting with injuries, expect Washington to blitz that side similar to what Oakland did, however rolling Donovan McNabb to his right counteracts the move. Philadelphia is 13-6 ATS on the road and is normally a smart football team; averaging almost seven penalties a game isn’t very bright. Skins signal caller Campbell isn’t known for reading blitzes properly, attack him with abandon.

The Redskins cover if they bring the heat on McNabb, who can quickly forget his fundamentals when pressured and make mistakes. Short fields offer the Washington the best chance to score and get the crowd in the game from the get-go. The underdog is 4-0-1 ATS roll in this series and putting Campbell in the shotgun is working towards his strength, since he is slow to read and react to blitzes. Zorn has about as much chance of returning next season as a Zima comeback, thus he and Lewis should devise wide open offensive attack, since chances of making playoffs are remote presently. Here’s hoping one of Redskins plays isn’t B-14.

Monday Night System – Play On a home underdog that lost SU at home last week and its opponent also lost previous game. (10-3 ATS)

Steve Makinen of The Platinum Sheet and College and Pro Football Weekly contributed to this article.

Looking ahead in the Rearview Mirror

On Saturday, it’s obvious the talent level at Wisconsin has dropped. Former coach and now AD Barry Alvarez locked up most every top recruits in the state of Wisconsin and several very good ones in Iowa and certain pockets of Illinois. Though Barry hand-picked Bret Bielema as his successor, the quality of players on the Madison campus is not the same and Fresno State was superior at several skill positions. The Bulldogs would have beaten the Badgers except for 3-0 turnover margin. Wisky’s first three Big Ten games are Michigan State, at Minnesota and at Ohio State, looking at 1-2 at best.

Speaking of the Spartans, losing at home to Central Michigan! That makes them 1-8-1 ATS before playing Notre Dame, however they have won and covered six straight in South Bend, five as underdogs.

It’s always from adversity we learn about ourselves and have self-examination. After not being able to hold Michigan out of the end zone in its final drive, more than one Notre Dame player talked about lousy practices early in the week, too many players feeling too good about themselves, which they expressed in several news outlets as for the real reason for losing. Notre Dame fans can talk about being jobbed by a few shaky calls, however if you cannot stop opponent from going 57 yards with a little over two minutes in the game, are you really a BCS team? If the Irish are to get back into BCS conversations, that means one loss at best the rest of the way and it can’t be against USC.

The opposite side of the Notre Dame crumble was USC. It’s supposed four NFL offensive linemen were either nullified or outplayed for over three quarters by Ohio State’s defense, until they bulled their necks and carried the team on 14-play, 86-yard drive for the winning score. Freshman sensation QB Matt Barkley was at the controls and he put it best about what separates USC. "We're Trojans. That's what we do," Barkley said. They travel north to see some of their old coaches at Washington and are only 1-6 ATS on the back end of two-game road trip.

It doesn’t matter if Oklahoma State was flat after beating Georgia in its opener, the Houston Cougars can play and have big time athletes. The Cougars led 24-7 at the half and were overwhelmed in the third quarter by the Cowboys 21-0, to fall behind 28-24. Most non-BCS schools would have caved in, but not Houston, they out-scored Okie State 21-7 in the final 15 minutes and gained 512 yards of total offense. QB Case Keenum is legit and Houston has speed all over the field. After covering the 16.5-point spread with ease in Stillwater, Houston has a week off before hosting another Big 12 team in Texas Tech. Don’t be shocked by total around 80.
So much for Jonathan Crompton of Tennessee maturing and being more under control after 13 for 26 performance, that totaled 136 passing yards and three interceptions in 19-15 home loss to UCLA. Crompton found out Bruins players were JUST a touch more talented than those from Western Kentucky. Nothing like having confidence heading to Gainesville.

I believe this was a first for me, literally officially losing a football wager 17 minutes and 29 seconds into a game. Everything pointed to another low-scoring South Carolina and Georgia game, until they started playing. Holding a ticket that said UNDER 40, the Bulldogs kicked a 50-yard field goal to make the score 24-17 Georgia, with 12:29 left in the second quarter. OUCH!

Time for Colorado’s Dan Hawkins to update the old resume after another loathsome performance by his Buffalos team at Akron. I’d be thinking Monster.com ahead of the Ladders.com website right now however.

Upon further review in the NFL

Denver and Cincinnati’s offenses looked fairly uncertain until the final minutes. After bottling up the Bengals the entire game with aggressive blitz packages and man coverage, the Broncos go zone, rush either three or four and Carson Palmer led Cincy down the field for looked like the winning score. Denver got lucky bounce probably of the year they needed for the 12-7 upset win and the wagering public and many Hilton Contest contestants took a bath on the Bengals.

Is Jake Delhomme done? It sure looks that way since teams are going to stack the line of scrimmage forcing him to throw. We’ll see what happens with Donovan McNabb, but you can’t help but be impressed with Philadelphia’s skill players and their team speed.

Tony Romo might have had career yardage passing day, however don’t go gaga. In the first half, he missed several open receivers and benefitted immensely from Tampa Bay’s secondary confused with new system, as much as his own skill.

It’s making more sense all the time why Matt Schaub was never a threat to be starting quarterback in Atlanta before being traded to Houston. Nice work Mark Sanchez.

A hugely popular play Sunday was San Francisco with the points and on the money line. Arizona had shown nothing in the preseason in losing four times and the Niners were prepared mentally for the challenge. Though QB Shaun Hill was intimidated by the Cardinals pass rush for over three quarters, the line buckled down late and Hill led San Fran to outright upset. The impression one has listening to comments from Cards players after the game, this team has acted like they were 13-3 and lost in the Super Bowl, not 9-7. Next is dreaded three time-zone flight to Jacksonville for early start for the Redbirds.

The Giants really controlled Washington and though they got back-doored on the spread, New York has the appearance of a team that should only improve.

Millions of sports bettors were held hostage by Green Bay coach Mike McCarthy’s decision to go for two points after scoring go-head touchdown over Chicago late in the game. This gave the Packers a 19-15 lead and the vast majority of bettors had Green Bay at -4.5 or less. In typical coach fear, McCarthy decides to go for two points trying to give his team a six-point lead, on the rare chance the Bears come back and score and miss the extra point. How rare you ask, at NFL.com, the top 39 kickers last year missed six of 1,176 extra points. That is a success rate of 99.489. Your team just scored late in the game to take the lead and grasp the momentum and you’re willing to give your opponent a reason for hope by stopping two-point attempt for an edge of over a half of one percent? Not smart decision-making unless you are from the Jim Carrey school of math deduction, from the “Dumb and Dumber” movie, with the classic line, “so I still have a chance?”

Study the numbers

In college football, favorites took one in the mustache (Rece Davis reference) with 21-24-1 ATS record. Though all games are not wagered equally, the Totals were split right down the middle in games played at 23 apiece. Double digit favorites were 12-14-1 ATS, however road favorites of 10 to 24 points were 5-0 against the number. Home underdogs were decent 10-7 ATS.

Last week only four games moved three points or more from opening number until closing on the sides and they were 2-2 ATS. Nonetheless, this may be worth following as totals that had the same movement cashed 17 of 23, following the money.

In the NFL, favorites were 8-8 ATS, with the Total dead even at 8-8. Favorites of a touchdown or more were 3-2 ATS and home underdogs were a 1-3 against the number.

NFL Opening Weekend

Thursday was a delicious bacon-wrapped filet appetizer, with the first main course coming Sunday in the NFL. Miami at Atlanta is among the early games that please, as should Jacksonville at Indianapolis, with their new head coach. NFL bettors made Philadelphia into a road favorite at Carolina after starting as underdog. The late afternoon has the NFC Super Bowl representative Arizona hosting division opponent and a team that won the Super Bowl the year prior, New York, is also embroiled in early division dogfight. Enjoy my sports wagering friend.

Miami at Atlanta 1:00E CBS

Miami and Atlanta will try to build on playoff seasons when they open the 2009 campaign in one the two inter-conference games scheduled for Week 1. Miami (11-6, 8-9 ATS) was the league’s biggest surprise in 2008, improving by 10-wins from ‘07. Oddsmakers don’t expect it to continue though, dropping the Dolphins’ regular season wins prop bet to 7.5 this fall. Perhaps that has something to due with the fact that the Fish had the best turnover ratio in the NFL. Head coach Tony Sparano’s team was 3-1 SU, but 0-4 ATS vs. the NFC last year.

Keys to the Game-

Miami’s Ronnie Brown has looked sharp in the preseason and if the Dolphins linemen can make a few creases, Brown could be productive. On defense, Fins coaches have kept LB Joey Porter on the weakside and moved Jason Taylor over to strong side of D-Line. They believe this gives them better combination for pass rush. Cornerback Sean Smith will likely have to go it alone with Michael Jenkins, which could determine Miami’s 1-7-2 ATS record in recent September’s.

Atlanta better run Michael Turner early in the season, since those 376 carries from a year ago are bound to affect him. Last year, Matt Ryan threw less than 10 percent of all pass attempts to tight ends, with Tony Gonzalez that will change as of the first quarter. Look for coach Mike Smith to use zone combinations to hide corners, the weakest part of the Falcons defense. The Birds are 9-2 ATS in season openers.

3DW Power Rating – Atlanta by 5
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Atlanta -4, 44

Philadelphia at Carolina 1:00E FOX

Top contenders in the NFC go head-to-head Sunday when Philadelphia visits Carolina. The Panthers opened as one-point favorites, but have been flipped to 2.5-point underdogs at most wagering outlets. Carolina (12-5, 8-7 ATS) is hoping to get off to a fast start and erase the memory of January’s embarrassing playoff loss. They rolled to a 12-4 regular season mark but were beaten 33-13 as a 10-point favorite vs. Arizona in the divisional round.

Philadelphia (11-7-1, 12-7 ATS) also lost to the Cardinals a week later in the NFC title game, but has made several well received changes since in the offseason. The Eagles are 8-1 ATS as a road underdog over the last two seasons, and 33-15 ATS in that role under head coach Andy Reid. They have won two straight series, but haven’t visited Carolina since ’03. The Panthers were 5-3 ATS at home in ’08, their first winning mark since ‘02.

Keys to the Game-

Philadelphia’s defense for the first time in years won’t look over and see DC Jim Johnson, who lost battle to cancer. They will have to be strong in the A and B gaps to prevent Carolina running backs from dominating game. The Eagles blitzes could affect Delhomme, who doesn’t handle pressure well on consistent basis, however they must get to him, since DB’s are often on an island. Philly runners will have to soften up vulnerable Panthers run defense. If they don’t, they fall 1-8-1 ATS as road favorites of a field goal or less.

The best way to defeat the Eagles pressure is run the ball right at them. Carolina is certainly capable of this and DeAngelo Williams is great bouncing runs to the outside. Coach John Fox has a defensive quandary; his club must be stout up the gut, yet maintain balance and not let talented Eagles perimeter players expose them. This figures to be close NFC battle, which means Carolina must maintain focus and not turn the ball over. Its bad enough they are 0-6 ATS before playing rival Atlanta.

3DW Power Rating – Carolina by 1
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Philadelphia -2.5, 43.5

Jacksonville at Indianapolis 1:00E CBS

There are seven divisional games scheduled for opening week in the NFL, perhaps none bigger than that in the AFC South between Indianapolis and Jacksonville. The AFC South is expected to be one of the most competitive divisions in football, and both the Colts and Jaguars boast playoff expectations.

This has been a back-and-forth series as well, with road teams owning a 6-4 SU & 7-2-1 ATS record in the last 10 meetings. The last three games have been decided by seven or less points. Ironically, the pointspread for Sunday opened at Colts -7. The Colts were just 3-8 ATS last year as favorites despite winning 12 games. Indy will begin a new era under Jim Caldwell, the former quarterback coach. The Jaguars are hoping to forget ‘08 after losing six of the last seven games, both SU & ATS.

Keys to the Game-

Indianapolis begins the post Tony Dungy-era looking for 10th win in last 11 openers (7-2-1 ATS). Though a new coach means some changes, keeping Manning upright is always the first concern. This is critical year for Joseph Addai, who must come thru or rookie Donald Brown will start taking away his carries. Manning has always been at his best with a good running game. The Colts are only 3-7 ATS in last 10 home games and most expose new Jaguars linemen and punish Garrard.

Jacksonville is going to have to run the ball successfully to stay out of third and long and is starting two rookie offensive tackles against Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. This sets up play-action passing for Garrard and saves his hide. Indy doesn’t have a lot of size in the middle, thus the Jags could wear down the Colts with Maurice Jones-Drew. The Jaguars have also been early money-makers with 8-2 ATS record in Week 1 and they’ll need to change up defenses frequently to cloud Manning’s judgment.

3DW Power Rating – Indianapolis by 7
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Indianapolis -6.5, 44.5

San Francisco at Arizona 4:15E FOX

The defending NFC champs start another run at it on Sunday when they host division-rival San Francisco. Arizona (12-8, 13-7 ATS) was a pleasant postseason surprise, turning a 9-7 regular season mark into a Super Bowl berth. In 2009, the Cardinals will have the target on their backs and be fighting the dogged record of the Super Bowl loser in the follow-up year. One of the main reasons for the success last year was their record in divisional play, 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS.

San Francisco (7-9, 7-8-1 ATS) has dreams of its own in the NFC West after winning five of its final seven games, riding the momentum of head coach Mike Singletary taking over. This has been a very trendy head-to-head series, as the last five games have gone OVER the total, and the road team boasts a 5-3 SU & 8-0 ATS record in the last eight.

Keys to the Game –

This will be a common theme all year for San Francisco, they can’t allow opponent to get off to fast starts since offense isn’t built to overcome big leads. Frank Gore must be moving the chains and Shaun Hill has to be effective in hitting targets and making good reads. Time of possession means everything to the Niners. Kurt Warner isn’t getting younger and mobility is further decreased with bad hip. Try and cover receivers tight and make him hold the ball to create pressure. San Fran is 4-1 ATS as dog in 3.5-10 point range.

Arizona doesn’t figure to have a number of offensive issues as long as they keep LB Patrick Willis relatively blocked. Willis is among the best inside backers in the NFL, thus one-back sets keep him from being as active in opposing teams backfield. Frank Gore has punished the Cards defense; he must be contained and cut off yards after initial contact. The 49ers receivers are mostly possession types except for TE Vernon Davis, who can be home run hitter. He must he watched closely for club that is 6-2 ATS as home chalk.

3DW Power Rating – Arizona by 7
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Arizona -6, 46

Washington at N.Y. Giants 4:15E FOX

The Giants weren’t at their best when it mattered most last year and failed to defend their Super Bowl championship, but they proved too much for the Redskins to handle in a pair of NFC East showdowns. New York (12-5 SU & ATS) outscored Washington 39-14 on the way to sweeping the season series for the second time in three years.

The rivalry renews in Week 1 at the Meadowlands, where the top-seeded Giants lost only once during the regular season (6-2 ATS) but then suffered a divisional round playoff loss to Philadelphia. The Redskins (8-8, 6-8-2 ATS) watched the playoffs from home following an ugly second half that saw them drop six of eight to finish .500, which placed them last in what many experts believe will again be the best division in football.

Keys to the Game-

Quarterback Jason Campbell answered the challenge in the preseason and now has to establish himself as the leader in Redskins locker room. He’ll have to make intelligent decisions in the face of ferocious Giants pass rush and make plays. Clinton Portis is slowing down, but will have to should the load if Washington is to pull the upset. This is perfect game why Albert Haynesworth was showed with cash, he needs to help contain Giants running game for Skins squad that is15-6-1 ATS as NFC East visitor.

When New York has problems with Washington, it usually revolves around failure of pass defense giving up big plays. Contain the Redskins deep ball and make them go long distances by moving the chains. The Giants linemen have to keep Haynesworth from being disruptive force and maintain manageable third down sequences. A healthy Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora should spell trouble for Jim Zorn’s offense and the blue-clad Giants are 8-3 ATS as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.

3DW Power Rating – New York by 9
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – New York -6.5, 37

Arizona favored to play there best football

The Arizona Cardinals are the defending NFC champions and are winless in the preseason, no big deal right? None of the top three quarterbacks have generated an offensive touchdown, no big deal right? Kurt Warner had off-season hip surgery and hasn’t looked like the quarterback that took his team to Super Bowl last season, no big deal right? This needs to be the week the Cardinals put it all together, to erase any doubts about them, especially playing at home. Also, we’ll preview the Patriots at the Redskins.

Green Bay at Arizona

The Cardinals are 3.5-point favorites at DiamondSportsbook.com and want this to start building confidence for the upcoming season. Arizona ALMOST won the Super Bowl, yet the fact remains they were 9-7 in the regular season in 2008 and were not considered elite team when the playoffs began. In this contest, Warner and the first team offense want to put up points and will face Green Bay’s new 3-4 defensive scheme, which features a great deal of blitzing. The could mean check downs to Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald, along with some long passes facing one on one coverage.

The Packers have rebuilt their offensive line and though talk out of Green Bay is coach Mike McCarthy is satisfied with progress, the Cards generated four sacks last week. Aaron Rodgers and the first team offense have been crisp. Last week the Pack built 24-0 halftime lead over Buffalo before cruising to 31-21 triumph. However, this is first road game which will alter dynamics. Arizona has thrived in this situation with 6-0 ATS record in Week 3 and is 9-0 against the number if off a SU loss and opponent is off double digit win.

Tim Hightower has been outstanding for Arizona, nevertheless, they didn’t pay top draft pick Beanie Wells to sit on the sidelines and be injured. Watch the total in this contest, which presently is 41 points. The Redbirds are 10-2 OVER after scoring seven points or less in the first half in two straight games and Green Bay is 8-1 OVER when playing with six or less days rest.

New England at Washington

Washington entertained the idea of chasing Jay Cutler who wanted out of Denver and gave serious consideration to drafting Mark Sanchez. Neither of those things happened and Redskins fans are starting to wonder if the Washington front office made an error in not following thru. Jason Campbell was believed to a work in progress when he was drafted and it well documented his head has been filled with new offensive schemes annually, dating back to Auburn days. Campbell is no longer a kid quarterback (27 years old) and he is 5 for 20 passing in the preseason, for a whopping 58 yards. This has to be the time he elevates his game. The Redskins are 3.5-point home underdogs, with total of 37.5 and they are 2-12 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points.

If one reads into comments made by coaches, New England could be edged this week. Coach Bill Belichick was unusually critical of his team’s 7-6 loss at home to Cincinnati as a touchdown favorite. Belichick said “We just generally had too many mistakes, too many errors in every phase of the game with every unit pretty much in every area.” It has been a different atmosphere in Patriots training camp, more hitting, longer practices and more double sessions. New England is 17-8 ATS in third game of the preseason, including 5-1 ATS since 2003. Tom Brady and his teammates might be in the mood to set an example in this contest.

Let's take a Saturday Adventure

Knocked down two of three on Friday and have another hopefully winning MLB system play that is 85.1 percent since 2005. The Free Pick is a NFL consensus play and the Top Trend is in afternoon action as 89.4 percent. Good Luck

What I learned yesterday – These new energy bulbs that are designed to save electricity and are more expensive, end up being more costly because they burn WAY sooner. Anybody else experience this?

Now on Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST all underdogs like San Diego with a money line of +150 or more, a NL team with a low on-base percentage of .350 or less, against a team with a good bullpen (WHIP of 1.350 or less), with a hot starting pitcher whose ERA is less than 2.00 over his last three starts. This system is 85.1 percent the last five years.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The New York Yankees are 17-2 after six or more consecutive road games this season, winning by 2.6 runs per game.

Free Football Pick -3) The Left Coast Connection has eight bettors on Washington (when it was still -3) and one on Pittsburgh.

New Guaranteed NFL Picks – Ready to roll right now.

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Monday Night Matchup - Steelers at Redskins

Washington has passed most of their previous tests, save for a final-second loss at home to the Rams in Week 6. But looking at St. Louis these days maybe that defeat isn't as bad as it originally looked. The Redskins steamrolled hapless-and still winless-Detroit, 25-17, and remains just behind the Giants in the NFC East.

Maybe owner Daniel Snyder was onto something when he hired head coach Jim Zorn despite no prior experience as a front man. It helps having the NFL's leading rusher, Clinton Portis, who added 126 yards to his total (944) against the Lions, in the same huddle. Rather than the wide-open spaces he's become accustomed to in Zorn's West Coast offense, Portis may have to take more of a bullish approach against Pittsburgh who is 33-18 ATS versus offensive teams averaging 5.65 or more yards a play.

The Steelers, ranked No. 2 in the NFL against the run (71.6 yards per game, three touchdowns), have allowed just three runners in the past 73 games to crack 100 yards. Portis has rushed for more than 120 yards in five-straight games and averages 5.0 yards per carry; opposing backs are rushing for 2.9 YPC vs. Pittsburgh. Washington is 28-12 ATS versus good rushing defenses allowing 90 or less rushing yards a game, including 2-0 against the spread this season.

Jason Campbell did complete 23 of 28 attempts for 328 yards against the Lions but can expect plenty more pressure in Pittsburgh. Much like the Giants did in Week 1, the Steelers are expected to bring the heat from all angles, and may be better at it than even the defending champs. Campbell has just three turnovers (all fumbles), but all have come within the last three games. Washington is 6-15-2 ATS after passing for more than 250 yards.

Campbell's counterpart, Ben Roethlisberger, hasn't yet clicked in offensive coordinator Bruce Arian's system and may have turned in his worst performance yet in a 21-14 loss to the Giants. He threw just one touchdown and four interceptions and absorbed five sacks. At least two of the sacks were because Roethlisberger held the ball too long, something the coaches are trying to get him to change. The Steelers 7-3 ATS off a loss.

Running back Willie Parker missed a fourth consecutive game with a knee injury, but Mewelde Moore, at one point the third-stringer, continues to prove his value and the running hasn’t fallen off as much as expected. Parker might be ready for this encounter.

Bookmaker.com has Washington as a 2.5-point choice with a total of 36.5. Pittsburgh is 17-6 UNDER in road games off an upset loss as a favorite and the Skins are 21-9 UNDER after out-gaining opposition by 150 or more total yards in their previous game.

Pittsburgh covers if they stop Portis, which they well could do since they held the Giants to just over half their average last week. The Steelers have to get after Campbell and force him to make bad choices and create turnovers. Pittsburgh’s special teams have been solid all, year, contain Washington and they improve to 28-10 ATS playing against teams with 75 win percentage or higher.

Washington covers if they can prevent the Pittsburgh linebackers from blitzing Campbell silly. The Redskins defense has only forced eight turnovers on the year, Big Ben will present opportunities, and they must cash in and create shorter fields for the offense. Attack the Steelers guards on defense, since this is the area where they have has the most problems in pass protection. Start trouble in the middle and safeties could have free shots at Roethlisberger. Pitt is 3-7 ATS on the road at teams with winning records.

No pertinent system for Monday night, however teams like Washington that have gone five consecutive games where they forced one or less turnovers against opponent like Pittsburgh after a game where they committed three or more turnovers are 32-9 ATS, 78 percent.