Ranked squads hit the road

This evening in college basketball, three teams from various power conferences will place their Top 25 ranking on display against opponents on their home floor. This certainly adds to the degree of difficulty trying to emerge victorious and keep lofty status with an eye on seeding for the NCAA Tournament. Each has something to accomplish in enemy territory, here is a preview of what might happen.

Trying to break fall

Georgetown (18-7, 11-10 ATS) has lost two in a row for the first time all season and will visit a place where victories for road teams are like reduced bank fees, not as easy to come by as they might appear. The Hoyas are 6-3 and 5-4 ATS against ranked teams, but recent losses to Rutgers and South Florida shows focus is an issue, not being able to stay on an even enough keel.

Georgetown is 10-24 ATS against conference opponents over the last two seasons and travels to Louisville (18-9, 8-14 ATS), who has moved a game ahead of the Hoyas in the Big East standings with 9-5 record, thanks to three wins in a row. Coach John Thompson III team has not been on the floor since last Thursday and they will need every ounce of energy, since they lack depth and the Cardinals will press most likely the entire game using 10 or more players to keep up the pressure before the home crowd where Louisville is 14-3 (4-8 ATS). After being a top Big East plays for a few seasons, Rick Pitino’s crew has sagged noticeably with 3-10 ATS record after a conference game this season.

Bookmaker.com has Georgetown as three-point underdog at 7:00 Eastern for ESPN2 clash and they cannot allow the Cardinals to reach their typical home scoring average (78.1) since they are 10-26 ATS when they allow 75 to 80 points.

Rarified air intoxicating for Wildcats

Kansas State has moved to its highest ranking since John Kennedy was still the president of the United States (1962) and this is a treacherous matchup for team with visions of revenge and No. 2 seed. The Wildcats are 22-4 (15-6 ATS) and their next two contests are vs. teams they’ve lost to, however, unless they are careful, K-State could get nicked again. Kansas State is 9-19 ATS in road games after playing a game as favorite over the last three seasons.

Texas Tech (16-10, 12-8 ATS) can scare the life out a team in Lubbock. The Red Raiders are 13-3 (8-3 ATS) on their own floor, with the losses by a total of 11 points. Texas Tech lacks the physical ability of Kansas State, but not the heart. “Our kids just didn’t quit and battled all the way to the end,” coach Pat Knight said of four point loss to Texas. “I kept telling them ‘if you hang around good things can happen.’ The Red Raiders are 14-5 ATS at home versus teams outscoring opponents by eight or points a game the last few years.

Kansas State is a six-point road choice, with total of 158.5 and is tough to beat after a hot shooting game and is 6-0 ATS after they’ve made 50 percent or more of 3-point shots. Do not discount the Red Raiders who are 9-2 ATS in home games when the total is 150 to 159.5.

Tennessee tries to avoid being Gator bait

After losing four of seven, Tennessee (20-6, 10-13 ATS) would like to believe they have stabilized with consecutive wins. The Volunteers are tied with Florida at 8-4 in the SEC East, one game behind Vanderbilt and want to keep building late season momentum. Seniors like guard Bobby Maze are feeling their college basketball mortality and want to assure they are doing things right. “As the clock ticks down, I want people to remember me here,” Maze said of his collegiate career. “That I gave it my all on the floor and against the best players, I rise to the occasion.” In all likelihood, he and his Vols teammates will have to rise to the occasion since they are 11-22 ATS in road games after playing consecutive games as favorite.

Florida (19-8, 12-10 ATS) is looking to make late season push also. The Gators won and covered at Mississippi as road underdogs 64-61, despite shooting 36.5 percent and would seem to have the greater motivation. Florida has missed out on last two NCAA Tournaments after being back to back champions and has a strong desire to return to Big Dance. In addition, they have lost six straight to Tennessee (1-4-1 ATS) and are 14-5 ATS off a close win by three points or less over a SEC rival.

The Volunteers are three-point road dogs and are 13-26 ATS facing poor 3-point shooting teams, converting on 31 percent or less of their attempts. This SEC showdown begins after 9:00 Eastern on ESPN.

One more day of college gridiron indulgence

All right, you made it this far, one more day of college football pageantry and you get your merit badge for taking in this many bowl games. After today’s group of five, its smooth sailing with individual games the rest of the way starting next week. Today’s five bowl contests take us to an unusual combination of locales throughout the day, starting in Toronto, heading south to Birmingham and Arlington, TX, followed by a trip to Memphis before ending in San Antonio. Kind of a where’s Waldo adventure. It doesn’t matter where they play them, as long as they do, with five more great betting opportunities on the second day of the New Year. Numbers from Bookmaker.com.

International Bowl
South Florida vs. Northern Illinois (+6.5, 50)
Rogers Centre – Toronto
12:00E ESPN2

The first three editions of this bowl north of the border weren’t all that competitive, as the Big East has swept the proceedings, including the last two by an average margin of 20.0 points per game. South Florida (7-5, 4-6 ATS) hopes to extend that streak when it takes on Northern Illinois (7-5, 6-5-1 ATS). The Bulls do not bring positive momentum, having gone both 2-5 SU and ATS in their previous seven outings. Northern Illinois is 7-5 but lost all four of its games (1-2-1 ATS) versus eventual bowl-qualifying teams. In fact, head coach Jerry Kill owns a 0-6 ATS record versus winning teams while with Northern Illinois.

Reason to watch and wager- On history alone South Florida gets the nod over Northern Illinois. The MAC is in the midst of another horrible bowl campaign (0-3, 0-2-1 ATS). The MAC is 1-8 SU against BCS conferences in last nine bowl games, with just two covers. The Bulls will have speed and superior athletes all over the field, but motivation certainly comes into question. Does a Big East team care about playing an average MAC team north of the border, well, that’s an easy answer. If freshman quarterback B.J. Daniels hits a few big plays against NIU, it’s easy to surmise South Florida comes out on top since they are 16-1 ATS when they gain nine or more net passing yards per attempt. For the Huskies it’s about getting to rushing average of 203 yards per game. If Northern Illinois can reach that threshold, they are 6-0 and 4-1 ATS this season.

3DW Line – South Florida by 6

Papajohns.com Bowl
Connecticut vs. South Carolina (-3.5, 51)
Legion Field – Birmingham
2:00E ESPN

Connecticut was the nation’s best spread-covering team in 2009, going 10-2 ATS, including 6-0 ATS as an underdog. Backers of the Huskies will look to go to the well one more time, as UConn is catching points vs. South Carolina. Both teams boast 7-5 records, with the Gamecocks having played one of the toughest schedules in the country. They were 3-5 SU but 5-3 ATS against fellow bowl teams. This is just the fourth time in 2009 Steve Spurrier’s team will have played as favorites. South Carolina is 22-3 and 15-9 ATS as chalk in his tenure, including 1-1 in bowl games. For the Huskies, this is a fourth-ever bowl game and they are 2-1 SU and ATS.

Reason to watch and wager- If you can’t decide which team to wager on in this contest by the time you are reading this, it’s probably best to pass, since half of the 24 games these teams played were determined by seven or less points. South Carolina has to appeal to SEC to get out of horrific November slate that has then sliding each year or find ways to recruit better players. South Carolina has a good defense team (20.4 PPG vs. opps. scoring 28.1) and pedestrian offense averaging 21.7. The lack of a consistent passing game leaves the Gamecocks at 8-20 ATS after passing for 170 yards or less. Connecticut once again performed well in the role of the underdog and averaged a surprising 32.1 points per game this season. If QB Zach Frazier can stay as hot as Papa John’s pizza (rare unpaid product placement) , UConn can rise to 10-2 ATS with two or more weeks of preparation.

3DW Line – Connecticut by 3

Cotton Bowl
Oklahoma State vs. Mississippi (-3, 50)
Cowboys Stadium – Arlington
2:00E FOX

Ole Miss and Oklahoma State last met in the 2004 Cotton Bowl, with quarterback Eli Manning and the Rebels pulling out a 31-28 win in his finale. The Rebels are 8-4 (5-5 ATS) in 2009 and will be putting a seven-game, non-conference ATS winning streak on the line versus the Cowboys. They have also fared well in bowl games with 7-1 SU and 6-1-1 ATS record in their last eight. Oklahoma State has the better record (9-3, 6-5-1 ATS) versus a tougher schedule, yet plays as the underdog. The Cowboys are 0-3-1 ATS all-time as bowl game underdog. The SEC has won and covered five of last six Cotton Bowls.

Reason to watch and wager -The Cotton Bowl is in name only changing venues to Jerry Jones palatial estate. This bowl matches two teams that didn’t live up to August Top 10 rankings. Oklahoma State at least had excuses not having two of its top three offensive stars for most of the season. This is a program in need of a quality win and they are just 9-18 ATS as an underdog. You hate to say it, but it was another Houston Nutt team that didn’t produce with expectations. Jevan Snead wilted under the limelight and was saved in part because of the brilliant play of Dexter McCluster, who carried the offense once November arrived. The Rebels are 30-14 ATS away from home playing against a team with a winning record. Think of this contest as mouthwash, with each team trying cleanse a less than desirable season.

3DW Line – Mississippi by 2

Liberty Bowl
Arkansas vs. East Carolina (-7.5, 59.5)
Liberty Bowl – Memphis
5:30E ESPN

East Carolina captured its second straight C-USA title by beating Houston in the league championship game 38-32. The reward of that accomplishment is another matchup with the SEC. The Pirates lost to Kentucky last season as favorites and in the 2010 edition and will be a good-sized underdog to high-scoring Arkansas. Coach Skip Holtz is 22-10 ATS as underdog and his team finished 6-1 and 5-2 ATS. The Razorbacks (7-5, 7-4 ATS) also played well down the stretch though, going 4-1 SU and ATS in their final five, while scoring 44.8 points per game. They have won just two of their past nine bowl matchups and are below average 3-6 against the spread.

Reason to watch and wager- East Carolina can pull the upset if their offensive and defensive lines can control the line of scrimmage. Coach Holtz learned from his father about the value of having linemen that can move the line of scrimmage either way. The Pirates can steal a victory if they move the chains against an Arkansas defense that yielded over 400 yards and have its talented front four bring consistent pressure QB Ryan Mallett. ECU’s pass defense is vulnerable in conceding 260 yards and without pocket pressure, they fall to 0-7 ATS in last seven non-conference games. Coach Bobby Petrino in an offensive mastermind and puts together great game plans to take advantage of opponent’s weakness. Expect him to do more of the same and hope his defense can make enough negative plays to influence the outcome of the game. The Razorbacks have covered six of last seven against teams with winning records.

3DW Line – Arkansas by 8

Alamo Bowl
Texas Tech vs. Michigan State (+7.5, 59.5)
Alamodome– San Antonio
9:00E ESPN

The Alamo Bowl game has been one of the few lately that Big Ten fans can actually look forward to. Their teams are 8-5 SU and 10-3 ATS since 1995. Big Ten squads showcase a 20-9-1 ATS record in their last 30 bowl games as an underdog of four points or more, which is the case in San Antonio. For this year’s contest, Michigan State (6-6, 4-6-1 ATS) has a poorer record than Texas Tech’s 8-4 mark, yet has the edge in several offensive categories, including pass yards per attempt. The Red Raiders (6-5 ATS) have not covered their last four bowl games and the Big 12 is 4-11 ATS in Alamo Bowl appearances.

Reason to watch and wager- Unfortunately the main story line on the 15th bowl game in three days will have little to do with football. The whole Mike Leach episode will play out over time, but for this contest it creates an opportunity for Michigan State. It would seem some division would occur within the Red Raiders locker room taking away focus. Their offense while incredibly potent is based on timing, which can be affected by long layoff. Texas Tech offense moves a little quicker on the carpet and they are 45-28 ATS in games played on turf. Michigan State has a wretched secondary, surrendering 223 yards or more in eight of the 12 contests. This means they are wholly dependent on squeezing the opposing QB in the pocket. The Spartans were erratic offense, but were much better when they had offensive balance running the ball, which is not a sure thing against a decent Texas Tech defense. Michigan State is 3-7 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points and covered just one contest in the second half of the season. This matchup looks like a Red Raiders rout, it all depends on their state of mind with shocking developments.

3DW Line – Texas Tech by 8

College Buckets on ESPN2

With one conference head to head challenge in the books, another commences Thursday. This is the opening night for the Big 12-/Pac-10 Hardwood Series, with three games on tap. We’ll focus our attention on the two main contests on ESPN2 to get things started.

Washington at Texas Tech 7:00ET, ESPN2

Washington (5-0, 1-4 ATS) is one of the co-favorites in the Pac-10, mostly because they have the best balance in the front and backcourt compared to their league foes. Guard Isaiah Thomas brings explosiveness and tremendous speed out of the Washington guard position. The best player for the Huskies is senior Quincy Pondexter, who last season started to live up to hype since arriving in Seattle. He’s become the most dependable scorer for coach Lorenzo Romar. For Washington to match expectations, Matthew Bryan-Amaning and Darnell Gant have to be a factor come game day. The Huskies are 5-16 ATS off three or more consecutive home wins.

Texas Tech (7-0, 1-1 ATS) has devoured a group of crème puffs thus far and will face first legit team of the season. The Red Raiders are expected to be lackluster in the Big 12 after last year’s 11th place finish. Texas Tech has four starters back for this campaign and wing player Nick Okorie and forward D’walyn Roberts have been the most impressive players to date and underrated point guard John Roberson has added stability. The Red Raiders earlier defeated another Pac-10 club Oregon State 64-60. This is step in class and they are 9-19 ATS after four or more consecutive wins.

Bookmaker.com has Washington as three-point favorites as they prepare to play first road game of the season and the Huskies are 6-0 ATS as the visitor after they failed to cover the spread. The Red Raiders are tough to gauge, but 6-0 ATS record after allowing 30 points or less in the first half in two straight games has to be given some credence.

USC at Texas 9:00ET, ESPN2

Another matchup for the series between the Big-12 and Pac-10 has the Trojans visiting Austin, TX. Southern Cal (2-2, 1-2 ATS) was a program on the rise just 12 months ago; however three of their top players declared for the NBA Draft and then coach Tim Floyd was embroiled in the middle of a scandal, which forced his resignation. All previous top level recruits begged out of wearing the burgundy and yellow and new coach Kevin O’Neill took over, not known as Mr. Warmth. USC’s depleted roster took another hit recently when Kasey Cunningham went down for the season with knee injury, leaving the Trojans with five passable D-1 players. They are 5-16 ATS in road games after they made 50 percent of their three-point shots or more (5-for-9) since 1997.

Coach Rick Barnes has enough depth on his roster in which he could loan USC a few players and not miss a beat if this was a scrimmage. Texas (5-0 SU & ATS) can sleep walk to 70 points with established star like Damion James and emerging big man Dexter Pittman. Players like Gary Johnson, Justin Mason and Dogus Balbay, who started heavy minutes last season, are not on the court as often and fighting daily in practice with newcomers who are as talented or better. Texas can turn up the defensive pressure and they are 40-22 ATS when they allow 61 to 66 points.
Texas is 20.5-point favorite and they are 8-1 ATS after two straight wins by 15 points or more. USC will try and hang in and is 11-3 ATS in road games after a combined score of 125 points or less over the last three seasons.

Looking ahead in Rearview Mirror in College Football

Ohio State detractors and Big Ten bashers won’t have to worry about Ohio State screwing up BCS championship game plans. The Buckeyes were whipped on all fronts at Purdue. Helmets smattered with buckeyes might intimidate some teams but the talent at Ohio State is not substantially better when it chooses not to play. Purdue ravaged Ohio State on both sides of the ball. The Boilermakers forced five turnovers and sacked Terrelle Pryor five times. They had 24 first downs to Ohio State’s 12. In other words, after five consecutive losses, Purdue wanted it more than the Buckeyes and took it.

Three observations, first coach Jim Tressel needs to hire a coach that can make Pryor a better quarterback. All the talent in the world is useless without practical application. Second, Pryor needs to grow-up, the gliding into the end zone for two-point conversion and the behind the back basketball-style flip to bring Ohio State WITHIN eight points is better served with a lead, not when trailing. Lastly, don’t expect the Buckeyes to be overrated the rest of the year by oddsmakers, this team simply isn’t that good and finishes at Penn State, Iowa and at Michigan.

USC proved they deserve to be in national championship discussion and if they play like they did for three quarters at South Bend, Texas better start beating Big 12 teams with abandon. Though Notre Dame has closed the talent gap with the Trojans, wasn’t the feeling USC had 15 players that looked like they could play in the NFL, while the Irish had around six. Matt Barkley looks fantastic and being able to throw to TE Anthony Mc Coy and WR Damian Williams is a real privilege, especially against a Notre Dame secondary that couldn’t cover a piece of toast if they had a stick of butter.

Not sure if the Notre Dame offensive linemen stopped to shake hands with USC defensive end Everson Griffen, but if they did it was the only time they slowed him down all day. Safety Taylor Mays was exceptional and took away Irish tight end Kyle Rudolph (3 catches, nine yards). The last remaining challenge for the Trojans is at Oregon and that should determine Pac-10 title. If Pete Carroll’s crew plays the same or improves, the Ducks are in trouble.

Notre Dame can say what they want about closing the talent gap and all that nonsense. The Irish showed plenty of fight, but this was their opportunity and they came up short. What really matters looking ahead does this team have the character to close 10-2 or do they do what many expect and find a way to finish 8-4?

Really felt bad for Sam Bradford in the Red River Rivalry contest and if I’m an NFL scout, my urgency meter is really up on him. Twice he’s proven the lack of escape-ability from the shotgun. The same again was proven about Tim Tebow vs Arkansas. These quarterback’s are so comfortable receiving snap, feeling little pressure and just making one read and rip. When pressured, they lack the survival instinct of stepping up or avoiding the chaos around them and are easy targets for on-rushing linemen.

Coach Bob Stoops was 3-3 in 2005 and his team responded winning four of last five, how will this group perform? Coach Urban Meyer can thank his lucky stars Arkansas could not execute when it counted most, missing touchdown pass and field goal that would have added more pressure on the Gators. The toughest remaining game on the regular season schedule is at South Carolina and Florida will be favored in all other games. If the opponent can play defense, wouldn’t count the Gators as safe bet as Tennessee and Arkansas proved.

Iowa overcame 10-0 deficit at Wisconsin and took over the game with 17-0 second half. What was impressive about the Hawkeyes is they held the Badgers to 87 yards on the ground. This week at Michigan State and later at Ohio State appear to be the stumbling blocks. Grit and determination are what this Iowa team is about, but that doesn’t mean it holds up every time. Best guess if Iowa and USC win out, the Trojans would be 17 or more point favorites in the Rose Bowl.

Texas Tech didn’t overwhelm Nebraska statistically (259 yards to Huskers 285), but buried them on the scoreboard 31-10. This Big 12 matchup had two elements almost no one saw coming. Nebraska opened as 5.5-point favorites and were bet heavily to 11-point choice, before the market adjusted them to 10.5. Evidently the Cornhuskers are a good matchup for the Red Raiders, who have won four straight. The total of 58.5 was never in question. Coach Mike Leach will have to make coaching decision as backup QB Steven Sheffield throws a nice ball and is elusive an a runner. Taylor Potts is about ready to comeback from concussion.

It was just last week Virginia Tech was the class of the ACC, blah, blah, blah. As was noted, this isn’t typical Hokies defense and Georgia Tech proved just it, bruising and deceiving Virginia Tech for 309 yards on the ground in 28-23 upset as 3.5-point underdogs. The Yellow Jackets option is on fire and here is the reason they might go 11-1 and be a solid bet. In their last two losses, Miami had 10 days to prepare for the option and LSU had basically a month in Chick-fil-A Bowl. All five remaining opponents have conventional one week.

Goal Line Observations – Central Michigan is the best team in the MAC and should continue to stay a good bet thanks to improved defense in 2009….Idaho is not a fluke, too bad they have to play at Boise State….Pop Illinois out of the microwave, they are done. At 1-5 and 0-6 ATS, they are headed nowhere with that defense….This was presumed to be a down year for the Pac-10 with a dearth of quarterbacks. Yet out of nowhere youngsters are emerging. Matt Barkley is headed for stardom and Stanford’s Andrew Luck and Arizona’s Nick Folk combined for 838 yards in Wildcats come from behind 43-38 victory.

College Football Saturday Action

This week in college football, a number of teams have different types of motivation, making it interesting for the sports bettors to not only wager on but get emotionally involved. Texas would have played for BCS title if they hadn’t lost to Texas Tech, now they get them in Austin. Teenagers are married with kids the last time Notre Dame won at home against Michigan State (1993). Auburn had West Virginia by the throat at 17-3, but gave 31 consecutive points in loss last season. Miami’s win gives Nebraska hope they can start to return as power with win at Virginia Tech and BYU opens home slate against the ACC’s Florida State. Will Tennessee coach Lane Kiffin’s oratory skills help his team in Florida? It promises to be quite a day. Lines courtesy of Bookmaker.com.

Michigan State (+10, 55.5) at Notre Dame NBC 3:30E

Maybe the only team less intimidated by the Touchdown Jesus surroundings in South Bend is USC, compared to Michigan State. The Spartans are 1-1 after being upset by Central Michigan 29-27 last week as 14.5-point chalk at home and have won six straight at Notre Dame Stadium, five as an underdog. A pair of sophomore quarterbacks will make first trip to northern Indiana. Kirk Cousins and Keith Nichol have shown why the coaching staff has had a difficult time in going with one signal caller, as each has played well when called upon. Of course neither has seen the type of blitzing defense Notre Dame brings in defensive coach Jon Tuneta’s scheme and each will have to keep their poise in the face of pressure. The Spartans are 13-2 ATS in road games after playing two straight non-conference games.

The Fighting Irish return home off incredibly disappointing 38-34 loss to Michigan, losing in the last 11 seconds. Notre Dame’s defensive front has not matched up well with the Spartans big offense line and will have to pressure the young Michigan State quarterbacks into miscues. The Irish will have to contend with the Spartans excellent tight ends, the best in the Big Ten. Jimmy Clausen looks ready for big season and why not, throwing to receivers like Michael Floyd and Golden Tate, who are unmatched in going and getting the ball. Notre Dame is 5-2 ATS off a straight defeat.

Motivation is not an issue for the Fighting Irish, but they will have to overcome Michigan State’s confidence playing them, as the Spartans are 9-2-1 ATS vs. Notre Dame and can physically compete no problem. The home team is 1-5-1 ATS in last seven matchups. For sports bettors, this one can be easy, as the straight up winner is sensational 14-1 against the spread.

3DW Line – Notre Dame by 6

Tennessee (+30, 53) at Florida CBS 3:30E

The one word that comes to mind when thinking about the two coaches of this anticipated matchup is “ruthless”. Tennessee’s new head coach Lane Kiffin has shown a proclivity towards wanting his players to be mercenaries, playing hard and enjoying doing things his way. He needs his quarterback Jonathan Crompton to be more poised than what he was last week against UCLA, when he tossed three interceptions. The Vols are 13-4 ATS in road games after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse.

Kiffin’s mouth has caused a ranker within the SEC, however, he’s been unafraid to play his freshmen recruits and they are delivering for him thus far. The comforts of Knoxville give way to the alarming craziness of Gainesville, which is about as different as country and western and zydeco music. Tennessee will find a blue-clad bunch that is 11-3 ATS after playing a game at home over the last three seasons.

Under Urban Meyer, Florida football is like a football sized-field, full of live Gators in search of a meal. Led by Tim Tebow, these Gators have an unquenchable hunger for success and don’t like anybody trying to cut in on their action. After dismissing a couple of patsies, Florida is ready for the real thing and is 12-4 and 11-4-1 ATS against Tennessee, including four consecutive triumphs under Meyer (3-1 ATS). Florida has shown their version of hurry-up offense, which makes them that much more difficult to prepare for. The Gators come into this bitter battle 7-0 ATS at home off a non-conference tilt.

Meyer is very comfortable with his position in college football and was not amused with Kiffin’s antics after he became Vols coach. Meyer’s teams in Florida are 31-18-2 ATS overall and they are 17-7-1 ATS as favorites in The Swamp. The Gators are 11-3-1 against the spread run in first SEC game of the season and assuredly will want to send a message to Tennessee. No matter the outcome, don’t expect Kiffin to give an inch and the Volunteers are 19-8 ATS on the road after one or more consecutive straight up losses.

3DW Line – Florida by 18.5

Nebraska (+5, 50) at Virginia Tech ABC 3:30E

Nebraska pauses from its September slate of hosting Sun Belt teams to check out the unfriendly facilities of Virginia Tech. The Cornhuskers have only six starting seniors, three on each side of the ball and they will have to provide leadership in first road test. Nebraska football has made the transition to junior college transfer Zac Lee at quarterback and he’s shown poise and delivers very catchable balls. Running back Roy Helu has played well, knowing any slip up will bring true freshman Rex Burkhead off the bench. The defense is light on experience, but has been tackling much better, per the request of coach Bo Pelini. The Huskers are 5-11 ATS as road underdogs.

Virginia Tech started correcting some of the problems they had in opening game versus Alabama with a resounding victory over Marshall 52-10, rushing for 444 yards. The Hokies offensive line needs to be the strength, as wide receivers and running backs are learning their way in the offense. Tyrod Taylor wants to prove he can pass in the pocket; nevertheless, he’s far more dangerous when running and creating better lanes for himself to pass or run. The defense is skilled, but rather light and can’t stay on the field for extended periods or will wear down like they did against Alabama late in the contest. The Hokies are 9-2-1 ATS as home favorites against ranked opponents.

These teams played in 35-30 shootout last year in Lincoln, with Virginia Tech winning and covering the seven points they received. The Cornhuskers are 5-15 ATS in road games after consecutive wins by 21 or more points The Hokies have covered 60 percent of their games (30-18 ATS) after a win since 2004 and are 9-2 ATS after scoring 40 or more points. They will try to build momentum before hosting Miami in ACC opener next week, however are just 2-8-1 ATS in last 11 regular season non-conference games.

3DW Line – Virginia Tech by 8

Florida State (+8, 54.5) at BYU Versus 7:00E

Florida State sort of cleaned the wounds of Miami loss by scoring 12 points in the fourth quarter against Jacksonville State to win 19-9 and makes the trip to Provo, which appears even more formidable than when the season began. Defensive coordinator Mickey Andrews likes the speed he has on the Florida State defense, but as he professed before Hurricanes epic affair, if his Seminoles players aren’t in the right place to make plays, speed is rendered useless. Miami carved up the Florida State secondary for 386 yards in opener and coming into the season, nobody was confusing the Canes for passing team like BYU. It will be imperative that the Noles to run the ball and quarterback Christian Ponder is on target to keep Cougars offense off the field. Florida State is 15-10 ATS since 2003 in non-conference play.

This will be the home opener for BYU, still in celebratory mood after Oklahoma upset and 52-3 road wipeout at Tulane. Quarterback Max Hall has shown the calm needed from a fifth year senior and has floated the ball around to different receivers expertly, including his favorite target, tight end Dennis Pitta. Defensive coordinator Jaime Hill has put together two exceptional game plans and his team’s toughness and physical play has not always been associated with BYU football. This week brings another stern test and the Cougars are 10-3 and 9-3 ATS in home openers since 1996.

These teams met in the old Pigskin Classics to start the season in 1991 and 2000, with Florida State winning and covering both. The Seminoles are 6-0 against the number off a non-conference tilt vs a foe off win by 10 or more points, while BYU is 0-10 ATS as a home favorite of 14 or less off two road games.

3DW Line – BYU by 10.5

West Virginia (+7, 54) at Auburn ESPN2 7:45E

This is weighty conflict for West Virginia after impressive 35-20 performance against East Carolina. Wins over SEC teams carry a lot of weight, especially when opponents can achieve success in enemy territory. West Virginia has knocked off four SEC teams the last four years; with three covers (two of the wins were over Miss. State). QB Jarrett Brown has been solid, if not spectacular and gotten the ball in the hands of playmakers like Jock Sanders. Scatback Noel Devine has been even better at cutbacks and making tacklers miss and has outrun defenders, when it looks like they have angles to bring his down. The Mountaineers are 24-12-1 ATS on the road the seven seasons.

The hiring of Gene Chizik as Auburn head coach brought more frowns than applause. His offense has been more productive in the hands of quarterback Chris Todd thus far, averaging 43 points and 572 yards per game. The senior took a great deal of heat from Tiger fans and lost his confidence last season. To date, his maturity has been superior, helped immensely by a better offensive line and running back combination of Ben Tate and freshman Ontario McCalebb. Auburn’s defense is fighting thru injuries and won’t be 100 percent to take on West Virginia’s multi-faceted attack. The Tigers are 0-6 ATS after playing a conference game.

These teams met last year in Morgantown, in contest that turned on a dime. Auburn led 17-3, when West Virginia’s offense exploded and scored the next 31 points to win going away 34-17. The Mountaineers are 5-2 ATS as underdogs but 3-7 against the number off a victory. The Tigers are 20-6-1 ATS after rushing for 200 or more yards.

This confrontation may not have national implications, nonetheless, for the respective programs, a definite building block contest towards a successful campaign.

3DW Line – Auburn by 8

Texas Tech (+17.5, 66) at Texas ABC 8:00E

Starting with the 2005 season, Mack Brown made a decision to have a less button-downed approach as a coach and become more demonstrative. Along with a slew of talented players, the Longhorns won a national championship that year and Brown has kept that same personality intact with Texas piling up wins.

Last year’s lone blemish cost Texas a chance to play for BCS championship when Michael Crabtree made a spectacular play with one second on the clock and Texas Tech won 39-33. If ever a moment was created for payback by senior Colt McCoy and his Horns teammates, this is it. Coach Brown won’t have to motivate his players to be ready for this prime time tilt, the Texas players will take care of that themselves. The Longhorns are 17-8 ATS as favorites of 10.5 or more points in Austin.

Junior Taylor Potts has faced North Dakota and Rice at Lubbock in his first two starts as the triggerman in Mike Leach’s aerial assault attack. He’ll be asked to maintain his poise on the road for the first time against a bitter rival. Don’t expect coach Leach to panic, he just reloads with the next capable chucker and always has a flock of talented pass-catchers that thrive in his system. Defense will be the greater concern against Texas, trying to stop McCoy from hogging the pigskin and scoring too many points. The Red Raiders are 12-7 ATS as road underdogs in Leach’s tenure.

As mentioned, this is road opener for Texas Tech and they are 7-6 and 4-8-1 ATS as travelers. The home team has had the better of things of late with 8-3 ATS mark in series which began in 1928. Dating back to 1993, the favorite is a mere 6-10 against the spread; nevertheless, the Longhorns are 8-2 ATS when the total is between 63.5 and 70.

3DW Line – Texas by 11

Inauguration Day Plays

A new president may mean change, but the winning keeps on going like a Lionel Richie inauguration party –All Night Long. Technically had all three correct yesterday, but officially we were 2-0, raising record to 23-10-1. We bring back the always popular perfect Trend in the NBA tonight. Have an absolutely smokin’ college basketball system that is 88 percent, holy ___! The Left Coast Connection introduces a newer member named Mike who has been on a bit of a roll in college hoops. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY AGAINST good shooting underdogs like Colorado, converting 45-47.5 percent , against an average defensive club like Texas Tech (42.5-45 percent), after 15 or more games, after a game where the underdog allowed a shooting percentage of 60 percent or higher. The focus of the dog changes to playing defense and their shooting suffers in turn. You have to like a 22-3 ATS, 88 percent record right?

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Utah Jazz are 12-0 ATS in home games after failing to cover three of their last four against the spread over the last two seasons.

Free Basketball Selection -3) I’m going to give up my turn, despite handing out another NBA winner and defer to Mike of the LCC who likes Illinois to extract serious revenge after losing five in a row to Ohio State. Mike is 17-8 in last 25 CBB plays.

College Football Wagering Material

An uninspired 1-2 day leaves us yearning for more. This Saturday we believe we have it what is takes, as the Top Trend continues to deliver and comes in 14-0 today. Saturday’s Best System is fabulous 19-2 ATS. Sal from the Left Coast Connection is 11-2 this week, including 4-0 yesterday in all sports and has his best college play.Good Luck.

Soap box moment- I have to my detriment defended Dick Vitale more times than I care to remember. Dicky V used to holler and scream, but he actually knew what he was talking about when finding the finer points of a particular game. Now he is compelled to share his opinions on a variety of subjects, some basketball related, some not. This week he talked about no 6-6 team should be able to play in a bowl game. While in principle I agree with Vitale, having 34 bowl games and even number of games creates issues. Hey Dicky V, why no problem with teams having losing records that make the NCAA tournament because they played well for three or four days?

Free Football System-1) PLAY ON home teams like Texas Tech off one or more straight Overs, who score more than 34 points per game, against a poor defensive team like Baylor (28-34 PPG) after 7 or more games. Since 2004, this system is 19-2 ATS, 90.4 percent and has average winning margin of over 31 points.

Free Football Trend -2) The Rice Owls are 14-0 ATS in home games vs. poor ball control teams, 28 or less possession minutes a game.

Free Football Selection -3) Sal of the LLC has has heated up again and is on the Florida Gators today.

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Texas Tech vs Oklahoma Wagering Outlook

Their may be encounters that will mean more this weekend to fans of particular teams, but no game will have greater importance on the national scope than this Big 12 battle. Texas Tech can end some the drama by taking down once-beaten Oklahoma and essentially winning the Big 12 South, with just Baylor at home and holding all the tie-breakers. Oklahoma can screw up the Big 12 big time by roughing up the unbeaten Red Raiders and if they win by 10 or more points at Oklahoma State next week, they would probably gather enough support to play in conference championship game, even though Texas had beaten the Sooners and they would have the same 11-1 record.

Senior signal caller Graham Harrell has had a special season and as opposed to other Texas Tech quarterbacks under coach Mike Leach, looks to have real NFL ability, needing to add a some weight. Being able to throw to receivers like Michael Crabtree makes his job easier, nonetheless a formerly underrated offensive line allows all the routes to develop and a trio of running backs with different skills makes them go. For the first time in Leach’s nine year tenure, he has a defense that makes stops and can prevent the other team from scoring. The Red Raiders are 5-4 ATS on the road versus ranked teams the last decade.

The Oklahoma offense has been boiling hot. In their last three games, they have averaged 47.3 points per game in the first half! Since losing to Texas, the Sooners offense has gone into another gear led by Sam Bradford and can control its own destiny of sorts. "Our team is in a great position," said Bradford. "We still have a lot of our goals out in front of us." The Oklahoma defense has been quite vulnerable to the pass (95th in the country), yet still ranks ahead of Texas Tech (99th) or Texas (112th) in quarterback controlled conference. The Sooners are 20-12 ATS in home finales at Norman.

Oklahoma is 7-3 ATS against ranked teams and the running game has been the difference for the increase in offensive production. Since netting 48 yards rushing against Texas, a very good Sooners offensive line has opened up holes that Oklahoma running backs have sauntered thru for 250 yards per game. Bob Stoops secondary may be lousy, but he will make sure to keep Harrell busy with a solid pass rush, something neither Oklahoma State nor Texas could do. Boomer Sooner is 7-0 ATS after gaining 6.25 or more yards play in three consecutive games and Texas Tech is 2-10 ATS on the road after out-gaining opposition by 100 or more total yards in three consecutive games.

Besides having to play at Norman, Texas Tech beat Oklahoma 34-27 at Lubbock last season, ending their BCS title hopes and will face a team looking for payback. Do you really think coach Leach is worried? He’s not, after watching Oklahoma surrender over 327 yards passing thru the air against a bunch of average Big 12 teams. A big reason why Oklahoma has look so formidable of late is they have forced 15 turnovers in last four contests, have Harrell be careful passing the pigskin and yards and points should be plentiful. The Red Raiders are well aware of the Sooners prowess in moving the ball on the ground; however Oklahoma is 8-22 ATS after gaining 275 or more rushing yards last game.

Bookmaker.com has home-standing Sooners as 7-point favorites with total of 75.5. The total is certainly inviting with the two schools a combined 14-3 OVER this season.

The visiting team is 5-3 ATS, though these encounters have not necessarily been close with the victor having a margin of 10+ points seven of last nine. Set aside four hours of your time if you plan on watching this one on ABC at 8 Eastern.

The Odds of Winning the BCS Championship

With just four weeks left in the college football regular season, it’s time to sit down and conclude who has the best chance to win the BCS trophy and more importantly for college football bettors, who is the best team to wager on. The question has come my way, why make a wager now on who could be national champions. Let me think, how many of you threw away futures tickets on say Georgia, Ohio State, LSU, Missouri and (clearing throat for comedic affect) Clemson.

Oh I’m sure some of you took long shots on Alabama or Texas before the season started, but what the heck, it’s much easier to win when the field is narrowed down. For all you that took Clemson and play 10-team parlays on a regular basis, the true idea behind sports betting is to win, not hope you win.

Penn State went from the odds-on favorite last week to essentially out of the picture with upset loss to Iowa. Check these teams out.

Florida Gators (9-5 odds)

Urban Meyer’s team is situated as the odds on favorite to be BCS champions again. They will be favored against South Carolina at home and have no reason to look ahead playing The Citadel next week (can anyone explain why). The usual end of the season battle with Florida State won’t be quite as easy as the last few years; however Tim Tebow should find a way to beat the Seminoles. The matchup with Alabama will be very interesting. The Crimson Tide has the athletic skills to play with Florida and is more physical. Meyer won’t have a coaching edge in this meeting, in fact might have somebody his superior. Alabama is more disciplined, especially in the big games. If the Gators survive, they would be a favorite against any other championship contender except USC. Consider the lower odds a fair bet.


Alabama Crimson Tide (5-2 odds)

The Crimson Tide has one the most important intangibles many recent champions have had. Since 2000, three different coaches have won a national championship in their second season coaching at that university. This means they walked into a good situation with talented players who needed direction and added more by their recruiting efforts. In fact, every coach except Mack Brown has won the title within the first four years with the school in the last eight years, which includes Nick Saban at LSU. Today, coaches have to get talented players on the field right away, to maximize their time, as the cream of the crop heads to the NFL draft board once eligible. Though Mississippi State and Auburn have been tussles in the past, playing at home should make winning a foregone conclusion for Bama. To beat Florida in SEC title game, Alabama will have to have same steely resolve they have had in every big game. They have the ability to make Florida one-dimensional and can control the clock. If they move past them, the Tide is three-point favorite or more against anybody not named USC.

Texas Tech Red Raiders (5-1 odds)

Texas Tech is in control of their own destiny ranked number two in the BCS standings after beating Texas and Oklahoma State in back to back games. The Red Raiders offense has proven to be all but unstoppable as quarterback Graham Harrell has the inside trck on standing at the podium at the New York Downtown Athletic Club in mid-December. The Texas Tech offense places so much pressure on opposing defenses figuring out best way to stop them. This ways heavy on the minds of the other team’s offense once the Red Raiders score, as they feel compelled to match scores and press, not playing with fluidity they normally would. Skeptics have to be impressed with what Mike Leach’s club has accomplished; however want to see them play the same way on the road, which they do on Nov. 22 at Oklahoma. If they survive the trip to Norman, they have Baylor at home, followed by Big 12 championship, in which they would be a double digit favorite. With the remaining contenders, Texas Tech would be an underdog against any SEC team or USC, though the number keeps shrinking with each victory.

Oklahoma Sooners (9-2 odds)

This has the appearance of a poor wager at this time, with Oklahoma needing a lot of help. Oklahoma can steer its path to a degree, still being able to play Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. If they win out and all the other Big 12 South contenders remain victorious, watch out. According to Big 12 rules, the first four tiebreakers will not be enough to declare a winner. The fifth rule becomes the most important; the team with the highest BCS ranking is declared the winner. Think about that for a second. (That’s a completely different article) Like all the teams in contention in the Big 12 South, the Sooners would be a double digit favorite against whoever comes out of the North Division.

If they managed to get all the way to the title game, Bob Stoops team would be an underdog to whoever came out of the SEC, in large part to a faulty defense that has given up a bundle of points against the better offenses in the Big 12.

USC Trojans (5-1 odds)

Head coach Pete Carroll is frustrated with the BCS and on point he is correct. He knows he very likely has one the best teams in college football that was asleep for a half at Oregon State and groggy for another 15 minutes in various parts. A playoff would settle any doubts, however that won’t happen this year or in the foreseeable future with too much money coming to easily. USC needs Florida State to beat Florida, the Gators to defeat Alabama, the Big 12 North champion to beat what would be a one or two loss team out of the Big South. If all that happened and the Trojans win out, they would meet somebody for the national championship game and would be at least a field goal if not more favorite.

Oddsmakers love USC and would make them a favorite against any team in the country, except maybe the Tennessee Titans and New York Giants.

Texas Longhorns (4-1 odds)

Like the rest of the teams, Texas needs help. Winning out the regular season won’t be problem with Kansas and Texas A&M, needing Texas Tech to slip up twice is. The loss at Lubbock has been discussed way out of context in the state of Texas considering whom the Horns had to play. Complaints of the Longhorns not being ready to play were foolish, having to play that many strong teams consecutively. Only Notre Dame in 1943 has been able to defeat a top-12 squad four weeks in a row. The Longhorns remain in the hunt, but have lost control of their destiny.

Utah (100-1 field bet) and Boise State (200-1)

The odds of either of these teams making it to the BCS championship are somewhat better than the Conference USA champion earning a BCS at-large berth, but not a lot better.

Looking in Rearview Mirror Betting College Football

One of the great things about being a college football sports bettor, you can live in the present and look towards the future. This week the BCS talk is running rampant, borderline Michael Douglas in “Falling Down”, with too many angry types speculating about everything that is wrong with the BCS system. It is far from a perfect system, but the drama is incredible.

Think about how watered-down the Texas Tech at Oklahoma upcoming game would be if both teams already new they were in an eight-team postseason. The Penn State loss at Iowa, no problem guys, shake it off, beat Michigan State and we’re still playing for the national championship. This is do-or-die drama, especially late in the season; it could hardly be more fun.

Those of us who wager on college football can join in on these borderline unhealthy discussions with more knowledge than your average fan, since we cover the entire scope of college football. We might have our favorite teams or know more about a certain conference depending on our proximity; however we are much more informed, even as our personal opinions differ. Just like the coach preaches, we play’em one week at a time and let somebody else worry about what might happen.

Texas Tech was extremely impressive against Oklahoma State. The Cowboys needed two more players on defense to either create a pass rush to stop quarterback Graham Harrell or more help in the secondary. After awhile it was like watching Gary Busey on Celebrity Rehab, you just felt sorry for Okie State. What is most impressive is the play the Red Raiders are getting on both sides of the line of scrimmage. Harrell could have worn a dress suit and gone out to eat after the game, with nary a wrinkle with the protection he received. Though the defense is unheralded, they make enough of a mess to spoil the other team’s offensive flow. In a league where the offense overflows more than Pamela Anderson, the best way to measure the Texas Tech defense is points allowed in their last three games.

Kansas averages 34.5 PPG – scored 21 vs Texas Tech
Texas averages 44.3 PPG – scored 33 vs Texas Tech
Oklahoma State averages 42.8 PPG – scored 20 vs. Texas Tech

The Red Raiders are the first team since Oklahoma in 1984 to defeat a number one team and beat a Top 10 club the following week.

You think the Rose Bowl and wagering outlets were worried about Ohio State- USC rematch; they might have a bigger conundrum on their hands. If Penn State and Oregon State win out, they are set for rematch in Pasadena from Sept.6, when the Nittany Lions pulverized the Beavers 45-14 in Happy Valley. You can bet the West Coast crowd is praying Oregon State loses, setting up JoPa against Pete Carroll. Have to hand it to coach Mike Riley and Oregon State as they are peeking again late in the season. As noted in the Platinum Sheet, they have won a won a minimum of three of last five games of the regular season all but once in the last nine seasons.

For the first time ever, the Mid-American Conference beat their Midwestern heavyweight neighbor four times. Not really sure if that points to the MAC being improved in 2008 or that the Big 10 (11) is brutal. Here’s one other little known fact this season about these two conferences, the MAC was 4-9 straight up, yet covered 10 of 13 meetings. HUMMMM

Nice to see Charley Weis of Notre Dame come to the rescue of suddenly inept offense after being shutout by Boston College 17-0. That’s the second posted zero in last 14 games for the offensive genius. He made it clear that he had nothing to do with being blanked directly and will try to resurrect the offense against defensive powerhouses Navy and Syracuse. His true genius will be shown when his team finishes the season at USC. I never bought into this 9-3 or 10-2 business Beano Cook or others were selling, thinking 7-5 seemed about right. Until Weis can start bringing in offensive and defensive linemen that have ability and bad intentions, there won’t be much fight in the Irish.

This past week was a bad week to be a big home favorite or a home team catching points. Double digit home chalk was 5-9-2 against the spread last week, making them 23-39-3 ATS the last month. After posting positive numbers a week ago, home underdogs returned to sorry ways with 5-11 ATS figure. They are 32-58-3 ATS the last five weeks.

Quick notes- Do you think the Oklahoma Sooners offense is peaking? In their last three games they have averaged 47.3 points per game, in the first half!

If you think the Big 12 South is a confusing mess, try the ACC. Every team in the conference has two losses, meaning tie-breakers deluxe are a possibility to determine who plays in the conference championship game. Not surprisingly with this kind of balance, ACC home teams are 18-13 and 15-16 ATS. Also, home underdogs at 5-2 against the spread should make perfect sense this season.

Most preseason magazines had Iowa in the bottom half of the Big 10 standings. Based on their schedule and defense, believed they would finish fourth in the conference. Coach Kirk Ferentz has his team positioned to finish strong after Penn State upset and their four losses have been by a total of 12 points. The Hawkeyes are younger, which could mean even better days ahead for the honest and glib Ferentz.

In the SEC, Florida is showing they just might be not only the best team in the conference, but in the country the way they are playing. On the other hard, Tennessee coaches are to blame, but the Volunteers players should embarrassed for how they played in losing to Wyoming 13-7 as 27-point home favorites. Departing Phil Fulmer deserves to be criticized for letting program slip, but the guys in the orange jerseys are culpable also for not beating a team that has been outscored by the top four teams in the Mountain West Conference 161-13.

The Texas A&M defense is slower than an express checkout lane as the grocery store.

West Virginia is stuck with Bill Stewart as coach and the program will sink. My guess is the Pittsburgh at Cincinnati Big East conflict on Nov.22 will decide who wins the BCS berth, other games not withstanding.

College Football Game Writeups

The college football landscape is dotted with landmines this week. Alabama takes its number one ranking to Baton Rouge, with LSU lying in wait to ruin their unblemished record. Texas Tech is second in the BCS standings, but might have an even tougher opponent in Oklahoma State this week. Penn State got passed by in the rankings last week and has what could be their last chance to lose in the regular season traveling to Iowa City. All USC can do is wallop Pac-10 teams and hope those higher than them happen to lose, as they host California this week. In the ACC, anything is possible and Virginia and Wake Forest play in an elimination game. The All lines shown are from Bookmaker.com.

Oklahoma State at Texas Tech

After last week’s spine-tingling upset of number one Texas, its right back into the Big 12 grinder for Texas Tech. Red Raiders quarterback Graham Harrell had trouble being noticed nationally until last week, playing in a conference stocked with quality throwers. What makes this Texas Tech team better is the little things that go unnoticed. Running back Shannon Woods is an effective runner, but where he helps his team as much if not more is picking up blitzes to keep Harrell upright and give him that split second longer to deliver the pigskin. Click here to continue.