MLB division leaders a safe second half bet

A quick glance at the standings today has New York Yankees, Chicago White Sox and Texas in first place in the American League, with Tampa Bay as wild card team, using the dreaded term “if the season ended today”.

In the National League, it is Atlanta, Cincinnati and San Diego, with Colorado and the Los Angeles Dodgers tied for the final playoff spot.

Without too much thought, the White Sox, Reds and Padres appear to be the most vulnerable of giving up their division leads by October 3 (the last day of the regular season), as the Pale Hose have to uncover another starting pitcher to replace Jake Peavy, who was coming on and the two clubs from the senior circuit have a “pretender” feel about them. However, based on recent history, all six division leaders could be relatively good “play on” teams the rest of the year.

Don’t misunderstand, I’m not suggesting to play these teams every day, in fact in some cases you might not want to play them at all for week given a slump or rugged road trip. Let’s face it; can you really expect San Diego to improve on baseball best +17.2 units with their 51-37 first half record? Not by much if at all really. Nonetheless, as a sage bettor told me more than once, “A fool and his money are soon to part without a look in the rearview mirror.”

The last two years, nine of the 12 All-Star break leaders went on to capture their respective division crowns and 10 of 12 made their way into the postseason. That’s 83.3 percent, a rather healthy figure and look around at any website that has full season baseball units won/lost records, will mostly show these clubs in black numbers and in the Top 10 in baseball for that particular year.

2009 (All-Star break position – final standings position)
Boston - 1st – Wild card
Detroit – 1st – Minnesota wins division in playoff
L.A. Angels – 1st – 1st
Philadelphia – 1st -1st
St. Louis – 1st – 1st
L.A. Dodgers 1st – 1st

2008 (All-Star break position – final standings position)
Tampa Bay – 1st – 1st
Chic. White Sox – 1st -1st
L.A. Angels – 1st – 1st
Philadelphia – 1st – 1st
Chic. Cubs – 1st – 1st
Arizona – 1st – L.A. Dodgers win division

Since 2002, 30 of the 48 All-Star break leaders have gone on to be division champions and five more were playing postseason baseball.

With rare exception do these teams completely fold, unless ravaged by injury. That’s not to say any squad is above a costly September swoon, like the New York Mets in 2007 (5-12 record - Sept. 14 until season end) and 2008 (6-10 close) or the 2005 World Series champion Chicago White Sox (Sept. 8-27, 7-12).

While crazy things do happen for those betting sports, a good team is still a good team and often playoff contender’s feast on other clubs whose season has long since been over except for completing the schedule. (Insert Pittsburgh here, since they have endured the curse of Barry Bonds, without a winning season since he left after 1992 campaign)

Taking on sports betting lines from oddsmakers is a different proposition in the second half of the schedule, as they start to add volume to first place favorites, taking the stance if you want bet the chalk, you need the intestinal fortitude to back it up with cash. However, it is not uncommon for these types of teams to win five or more in a row and if you started the winning streak with them, much like betting additional numbers on a craps table with hot shooter, the winnings more than offset one loss or bad roll.

As always, be selective, pick your spots and don’t be anxious or greedy, two absolute sins of gambling.

One final point, understand the workings of the wild card. In the past eight years, the AL team the ultimately earned the wild card slot was already in this position at the break or in first place. That is good news for Tampa Bay.

Conversely in the NL, only the 2006 Dodgers, who were tied for first place with San Diego, have made the postseason as the fourth team supposedly poised to be playing in October. This is not good news for Rockies or Dodgers backers at present.

Happy 4th of July!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

A spirited 3-1 Saturday, raises our record to 94-54. We start today with Ron of the LCC just on fire and he offers his top selection for Free. The Top Trend is flat out perfect the Best System is amazing 48-8! Good Luck

3Daily Winners is No.5 in units won at Cappers Monitor the last 10 days.

What I saw yesterday – The Arizona Diamondbacks put on as bad a performance as a team can, committing six errors, a franchise record. The final score was 14-1 Dodgers and it should have been worse except for two base-running blunders by L.A. that led to unnecessary outs.

Kirk Gibson was just in his second game as manager but he is finding things out quickly about his team and himself. His starting lineup featured more than half the team made up of backups. The logic was lost on me and everyone else.

The Snakes can never, I repeat never again start Rusty Ryal at first base, his footwork and lack of experience led to directly to one and possibly two of the errors (Adam LaRoche would have saved two errors for certain) the D-Backs had.

Part of being a manager is to understand circumstances. Yes, Gibson was just on his second day on the job, but he had to know or should at least checked that this moribund team was going to have a large crowd on hand. It’s the manager’s job to win games first, however with over 44,000 on hand to watch fireworks as much or if not more than then to watch the Arizona, this was a great opportunity to go all out to impress the fans that maybe they should come back and see another game, since this club has nothing but pride and paychecks to play for the rest of the way.

The only reason anyone who was in attendance would bother to come back in 2010 is to see another team.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) Play On all favorites with a money line of -150 or more like the Halos, with a team batting average of .260 or less, against a good AL starting pitcher with ERA of 4.20 or less, in the second half of the season. Hitting the way back machine to 1997, this system is 48-8, 85.7 percent.

Free Baseball Trends -2) The Atlanta Braves are 9-0 vs. teams with a mediocre bullpen whose WHIP is 1.450 to 1.550 this season.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Ron continues to crush the books with a 31-9 record on the diamond and is riding the Redbirds to split series with Milwaukee.

Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right.

Great System, Great Video

The Los Angeles Dodgers had their nine-game win streak snapped at an inopportune time, losing last night to division leading San Diego 10-5. The Padres were the first team in ten games to rip thru the Dodgers pitching, who had allowed 18 total runs during their scorching streak.

Los Angeles will attempt to begin another charge at first place and split the quick two game series against San Diego.

The Dodgers defense has been a source of concern all year, ranking 11th in the National League. However they have tightened up all aspects of their game and have gone six contests without an error.

Manager Joe Torre will hand the horse-hide over to Clayton Kershaw (3-2, 3.55 ERA, 1.358 WHIP), which should put smile on everyone face (along with below video) preferring the home team for sports betting purposes. Kershaw has allowed one run in his last two starts, permitting five hits over 15 innings, striking out 16 opposing batters. Equally as important for him the left-hander is giving up just five walks.

L.A. is 29-8 in home games after a loss and will face Kevin Correia (4-3, 4.35, 1.220) who Kershaw and the Dodgers downed 4-1 last Saturday in San Diego. Correia allowed the four runs over 5 1/3 innings in the defeat while attempting to overcome the emotional scars of losing his younger brother, Trevor, who died after falling from a 60-foot cliff while hiking on Santa Cruz Island.

Sportsbooks have Los Angeles as -158 money line favorites, despite having Andre Either out the lineup and possibly Manny Ramirez, who injured his left foot before yesterday’s contest and was scratched from the starting nine and later was used as pinch-hitter. Nevertheless, the situation is quite favorable for the home team in this I-5 conflict.

Play On favorites with a money line of -125 to -175, after three straight games where they committed no errors, starting a pitcher who gave up one or fewer earned runs in his last two outings.

This baseball system is 62-16, 79.5 percent since Daniel Powter’s No. 1 Billboard hit “Bad Day” (2006) and the margin of victory has been decisive, with the favored club winning by 2.4 runs per contest. Everything points to a Dodgers triumph with L.A. 33-13 in May games since last year.

Betting Baseball in April – Punch Pedal or Tread Lightly?

This is a great question that applies to any sport that has wagering options on a daily basis. What separates baseball from the rest is teams play essentially every single day, not three or four times a week like in the NBA or NHL and most college basketball teams are hitting the court twice a week at best unless they are in a preseason tournament in a far away destination.

The month of April in the Major Leagues is very much like a golf tournament. In golf, not very often does the first round leader end up winning the tour event after four days. This same logic is also true in baseball with many pretenders that are not contenders later in the season.

Need proof read on:

April 30, 2009 standings –Division leaders
Boston –Kansas City – Seattle- Florida- St. Louis – L.A. Dodgers

Two teams won their divisions, three made the playoffs.

April 30, 2008 standings –Division leaders
Boston –White Sox- L.A. Angels-Florida-Cubs- Arizona

Three teams won their divisions, four made the playoffs.

April 30, 2007 standings –Division leaders
Boston-Cleveland- L.A. Angels-Atlanta- Milwaukee-Arizona

All the American League teams won their divisions as did the Diamondbacks.

April 30, 2006 standings –Division leaders
Yankees-White Sox-Texas-Mets- Cincinnati- Colorado

Two teams won their division and no other clubs made the postseason.

So what is the best way to bet baseball to start the season, here are the pros and cons for each method.

Running hard – Preparation is really the key. If a sports bettor has done his homework, no reason not to jump into the deep end. Knowing what off-season moves teams have made to improve weaknesses in the lineup or the starting pitching should allow any sage baseball bettor to get off to fast start.

Often team that closed the previous season well is an early precursor as to what they might do early in a new season. The Kansas City Royals were 20 games below .500 on Sept. 1 2008 and finished the year 18-8. They carried this momentum into the next season by being in first place in the Central Division and though they would finish 65-97, they picked up +2.10 units the first month of the year.

Slow and easy-Does preparation help you when the Los Angeles Dodgers start the season with suspect pitching staff and they run out to 15-8 record? What about the defending American League champion Tampa Bay, the best young team in baseball right, occupying the AL East basement at the end of April last season at 9-14!

Much like the standings, many things will change from May 1 to August 31 giving every baseball bettor time to get a feel and ease into the season. A formidable pitching staff or lineup gets off to slow start and let’s be honest, preconceived notions are often hard to let go of. Believing in a team that SHOULD be good and is underachieving will drain a wagering account faster than printer ink cartridge.

Running hard – Great logic if you are afraid of your own shadow. The argument of letting things settle in holds no water. If a real sports bettor is interested in winning, you begin at the start. Sure a slow start is possible, but like the previous point, you have four months before football season to make it up. Ever heard of hot streak? And what happens if you catch fire from the start and go up 15 to 20 units, you could be strictly average the rest of the season and still take home the money you made in April.

Slow and easy- Not exactly sound reasoning for those that understand baseball is truly a betting marathon. The psychology of most sports bettors is to press once behind. This can lead to irresponsible wagers, taking chances when not necessary, which could lead to further depletion of bankroll or having to cough up more money in say May or June with more than half the season to go, which erodes confidence.

That other aspect of burning money early is limited bankroll. Say you start with $1,000.00 and you hit bad stretch early, using up half of your dough. You still want to bet all season, so instead you start making smaller bets. All of the sudden you begin winning, yet are gun-shy and keep wagering lesser amounts, grinding away. You finally get your record back to .500, yet are down say $150 because of cautious approach. Do you return to original betting amounts from the first month of season or keep going with what has been working?

A more conservative method takes the guess work out when you are more in tune with all 30 teams.

Running hard –Negative thinking produces negative results. Did Bill Gates, Steven Jobs or Warren Buffet make their billions by not taking a chance or risk on opportunity?
If you don’t know what you are doing you deserve to lose. The old school way of betting baseball was to find underdogs that can win and playing favorites no larger than -150 on the money line. That’s fine if you want to use coupons to go out to eat, but the preference here is steak and lobster whenever the mood strikes.

The idea is to uncover winners wherever they are. Above -170 favorites that lose means you have to hit two winners basically to squeak out a profit; however you can still fire on those in the first month if you follow simple rules. Have the starting pitcher edge, the bullpen is in order, with pre-assigned roles from the beginning of the year (not assembling pen on the run) and lineup of hitters that hit home runs with quality on-base percentage.

Nobody likes to lose, thus playing underdogs continually might show profits from time to time, but who likes to win less than 50 percent of the time? If you are wagering nickels and dimes, that makes sense because the dollars add up quicker.

And don’t forget those cold-weather totals, lots of cash to be made on Under’s if you know upcoming weather reports in advance of released numbers.

Slow and easy- Betting favorites over -150 is foolish in April. In today’s game, 80 percent of teams only believe they have their bullpens set from the middle innings to closer. If you watch most teams, they are searching to find right combinations and might need a month or more to figure out a plan of attack. Already this season a number of teams (like Kansas City) have carried leads into the eighth inning and lost.

Knowing a team has a bad bullpen can allow you to take more chances later in the year on underdogs and favorites.

This same variable applies to totals. A 3-2 game with a listed total of 8.5 can blow up in the later innings when one pen has too many weak pitchers to contain opposition, sending the number well above the total.

The best method to bet baseball is the one the works best for you. Make certain you have all the tools necessary (like the FoxSheets) at your disposal that provides you the best chance to profit.

L.A. teams in strife on Monday

While the state of California battles with budget cuts and other issues mostly due to the recession, both Los Angeles baseball squads have built a deficit and have to win today or the field for the World Series is virtually set. The Angels will go first, playing at home and they can look at five errors and lack of clutch hitting as the culprit for their 0-2 predicament. The Dodgers should be down 3-0 except for a Phillies bullpen failure and Chase Utley being wilder to first base on double play turn than Ricky Vaughn before glasses.

The Angels are batting .154 as a team and were 3 for 15 with runners in scoring position in Game 2. The Halos bullpen failures arose again when supposed closer Brian Fuentes served up a belt high 0-2 pitch that got WAY too much of the plate that Alex Rodriguez drilled to right-center bleachers for tying run in the bottom of the 11th. Maybe it was wearing baseball hats with ear flaps, but a normally sound Angels’ defense was making both mental and physical errors in the field reminiscent of a grade school team, literally costing them at least one game.

Jered Weaver has the assignment of attempting to bring the Angels back in the series. The lanky right-hander is 9-3 with 2.90 ERA at the Big A, for a club that is 21-7 after batting .225 or worse over a five game span. He’ll be up against veteran Andy Pettitte, who was far more effective on the road with 9-4 record and 3.56 ERA. In the last dozen years, the left-hander is 8-9 against the Halos and the Yankees are 50-21 after two or more consecutive wins this season.

DiamondSportsbook.com has the Anaheim-based club as -130 money line favorites with total of 8.5. The Halos are 14-2 after a game where their bullpen blew a save this season and 38-18 against lefties. This Los Angeles squad is 11-4 at home versus New York and truly are in must win scenario on FOX at 4:13 Eastern today.

The other Los Angeles team has at least won a game in their league championship series, however has looked anemic. The Dodgers offense has not been especially effective since the middle of August and this problem has manifested itself at the most inopportune time. The Dodgers have scored more than five runs just once in last 13 games (8-6 loss in Game 1) and were completely stifled last night in 11-0 rocking chair win for Philadelphia.

Teams that are victorious in the postseason execute and the Dodgers are 9 for 48 with runners in scoring position six games into the playoffs. The 1927 Yankees might not have done much success with Cliff Lee Sunday night, but that doesn’t explain why they were held scoreless by Pedro Martinez in Game 2. The Dodgers are 3-11 after allowing 10 runs or more and hope starter Randy Wolf can give them an argosy of compelling innings in Game 4. Wolf and the Dodgers are 12-4 against teams with winning records this season and he has 2.90 ERA on the road.

Manager Joe Torre hopes a pressing Matt Kemp (.192 BA and 12 K’s in 26 at bats in the playoffs) will find his batting eye against Joe Blanton. Kemp doesn’t sound particularly encouraged he will turn things around. "I'm not hitting the ball that well," Kemp said. "I'm just going out there playing hard, and when I get hits, I get hits."

The Phillies are now 16-5 in the postseason the last two years and are -120 money line favorites with total Un8.5. Philadelphia is 44-25 when the money line is +125 to -125 this season and Blanton is 15-5 against teams with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last two years. (Team's Record)

The Dodgers have to start hitting and hope the Phillies are worn out after yesterday’s offensive display (Phils 12-18 at home after six or more extra base hits). TBS picks up Game 4 at 8:07 Eastern.

NL West Heats Up

Exactly one month ago, the Los Angeles Dodgers were as close to a lock to win the division as there was in baseball. Manager Joe Torre’s club led the National League West by nine games and was running smoother than a brand new Nissan 370Z on the Pacific Coast Highway. However, baseball’s fortunes can shift gears quickly and over a 162-game schedule, very few teams in the history of the game have managed to avoid rough patches and run wide open all season.

Los Angeles (74-51, +12.4 units) has seen their lead in the division diminish to three games for two reasons, one of their own doing. The Dodgers are 12-16 since July 25, and have a faulty offense to blame. L.A. has scored three or less runs in 13 of its recent 16 losses and it doesn’t seem to be a coincidence that without Juan Pierre in the lineup on a regular basis, with Manny Ramirez back patrolling leftfield, there are fewer scoring chances with runners in scoring position. Though the Dodgers won three of four over the Chicago Cubs, they managed to score five total runs in last three contests and are 27-45 after scoring two runs or less three straight games.

The Colorado Rockies (71-54, +14 units) have been the other reason for the club from La-La Land hasn’t been able to get away with playing undistinguished baseball. Since former Dodger manager Jim Tracy took over, Colorado is 53-26, proving not to be the mercurial club like in the past. The Rockies have won 18 of last 28 to close the gap to present number and came from behind three times against San Francisco, their nearest wild card competitor, to win the series 3-1, which included last night’s improbable walk off grand slam by Ryan Spilbroghs in the bottom of the 14th. Colorado comes into this series 15-4 after consecutive wins by two runs or less.

The Rockies will be tested mentally, since they have lost 10 of 12 to Los Angeles, including five of six at Coors Field. Jason Hammel (8-7, 4.54 ERA) will be the game one hurler for the Rocks and they have won seven of his last 10 starts. Los Angeles will counter with Clayton Kershaw (8-7, 2.96) who’s needed a directional-finder this month. The young lefty had been pitching brilliantly this season, however since August; he’s walked 15 batters in 19 innings. The increased wildness and the lack of run support (2.3 RPG) have seen the Dodgers lose Kershaw’s last six starts, after winning the previous seven.

This NL West affair opened with the Dodgers as -125 money line favorites at Bookmaker.com and the number has moved against L.A. to -110, with total Un9.5. Colorado is on 26-10 roll at home and has punished lefties, winning 11 of last 12 at Coors. The Rockies are 9-1-1 OVER against teams with a winning record.

The Dodgers have experience in handling Colorado and are 14-5 on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season and is 15-5 UNDER when the money line is -100 to -150, with Kershaw pitching.

This anticipated conflict and series will be available in local markets and on MLB.TV starting at 8:40 Eastern.

L.A. favored over soaring Redbirds

Last night’s St. Louis and Los Angeles contest had all the drama and intensity of a playoff game, with the Cardinals coming out on top 3-2 as -160 money line road favorites behind Chris Carpenter. This evening, the roles will be reversed, with the Dodgers the larger favorite and trying to find magic formula that worked earlier this season.

The Dodgers (70-49, +11.2 units) have lost seven of 10 games, seeing their lead in the NL West dwindle to 4.5-games and now have the same amount of losses as Philadelphia in the National League, jeopardizing their hold of the best record in the senior circuit.

It’s been an impotent offense that has hurt the Dodgers. Take away the two nine run explosions that resulted in victories and L.A. has totaled 20 runs in the other eight games (2.5 runs per outing). Matters have been made worse with starting pitchers being mildly ineffective and injuries creeping up.

Tonight’s starter, Chad Billingsley (11-6, 3.73 ERA) hasn’t pitched in 11 days due to left hamstring strain and will have to be watched cautiously. Billingsley hasn’t had much success against St. Louis with 0-2 record, with a 5.23 ERA in four starts, including being rocked for six runs and walking six in 5 2/3 innings of a 10-0 Redbirds whitewashing. The Dodgers have lost Billingsley’s last four home starts against teams with winning record.

St. Louis (68-52, +6.2 units) is making all those trade deadline pickups work and has won nine of last 10 contests. Manager Tony LaRussa’s offense has been improved with Matt Holliday and Mark DeRosa, however the pitching has been brilliant in allowing just over three runs per game during this stretch.

It was evident in last night’s contest the confidence the Cardinals are playing with and tonight’s starter Mitchell Boggs (1-1, 3.78) has given the Cards a chance to win. Though he was roughed in suffering first loss of the season last week against Cincinnati, the 25-year old right-hander has kept his team in the game and they have won five of his six starts in 2009. Boggs would become a permanent part of the rotation, but as has been the case in the past, 20 walks in just over 33 innings has made him less than trustworthy.

The Dodgers are 12-3 revenging a one run loss this season and sports bettors have moved them from -160 money line favorites at Bookmaker.com to -180, with the total Un8.5. L.A. has won 60 of last 86 games as a home favorite and is 12-4 OVER after allowing four runs or less four straight games this season.

St. Louis is decided underdog, yet is 14-3 on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 and has the same record when they have on-base percentage of .375 or better over their last five games this season.

This battle of division leaders is set for 7:10 Pacific and is available for viewing in local markets and the Cards are 16-6 UNDER after a win by two runs or less this season.

On Sunday Exploration for Winners

Another disappointing 1-2 day, with Justin Verlander being vulcanized. Let’s try and find three winners starting with Alan’s Free Play our West. The Top Trend follows the Pirates exploits as larger underdogs and the Best System is 42-6! Good Luck

What I realized today- Since starting the year 13-0, the Los Angeles Dodgers are 23-21 at home. The LLC has seven members on Buffalo and two on Tennessee in the HOF preseason game. (I'll pass thank you) Jay Culter is showing his continued immaturity saying Bears fans are better than Broncos fans and then running away from comment with all kinds of spin control.

Now on Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs like the Cincinnati Reds with a money line of +150 or more, who are cold hitting team, batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games, against opponent with a scorching starting pitcher with WHIP of 1.000 or less over his last five starts. This sizzling system is 42-6, 87.5 percent since 2007.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Pittsburgh Pirates are 1-14 as a home underdog of +150 to +200 over the last two seasons, losing by enormous four runs per game.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Alan of the LCC nailed his top play yesterday and likes the Angels to round up the Rangers.

New StatFox Football Annual on Sale – A must for Every Sports Bettor

Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right.

Why are these baseball teams playing Under?

There has been more of movement the last several years for baseball bettors to play totals. It is easy to trace the origins as totals today have price tags of -135 or -140 on a particular number, compared to mostly -120 at the highest point before a number change not that many seasons ago. (Ex. - Under 9 (-120) moves down to 8.5) With betting lines like the stock market, what creates this kind of volatility? Let’s examine the top four teams playing UNDER the total in 2009.

The Texas Rangers are 40-23-2 UNDER, which is in and of itself a shocker. Texas has long been known as offensive club playing in run-friendly Rangers Park at Arlington. Along with this, the Rangers pitchers have not exactly cast a spell over the opposition, as they have given up about the same number of runs as the offense generates. Their have been changes within the organization since Nolan Ryan became President and they are apparent.

The offense still scores runs, averaging five a game, which is down a little, with the offense slumping a bit lately. The biggest change comes in the pitching. It is doesn’t seem plausible Texas will lead the American League or baseball for that matter in earned run average playing half their games in Arlington bandbox. That doesn’t mean they can’t improve and have they ever.

After finishing 30th in baseball with 5.37 ERA in 2008, the Rangers pitchers (really have a different look about them) have improved nearly a whole run to 4.42, ranking 18th overall. (Thru 6-17-09) The most noticeable difference has been throwing strikes. This season, Rangers’ pitchers are 11th in walks allowed, last year they were 24th. Texas also has legitimate ways to close out games, as closers Frank Francisco and C.J. Wilson have led the way in the Rangers converting 82.6 percent of save attempts. (19 of 23)

The feel is oddsmakers have been slow to adjust and the wagering public has not gotten on board with Texas playing this way.

The Chicago White Sox are another team that has played UNDER with 39-26-1 mark. The reasoning for the South Siders to be playing this style of ball is not scoring as many runs, averaging 4.1 per game. The White Sox are at their best when they are hitting the long ball. That was true in 2005 when they won the World Series, finishing fifth in the baseball with 200 home runs and last year when they made the playoffs, leading the Major Leagues with 235. At this juncture they are strictly middle-of-the-road ranked 14th overall.

The big boppers are getting older like Jim Thome and Carlos Quentin has been injured and not the same player as last season. One can not overlook the weather factor, with many cold and cloudy days in Chi-town, with the wind blowing in more frequently off of Lake Michigan.
Seattle is 39-25-2 UNDER, with their everyday lineup performing much like Starbucks stock. The Mariners are at the bottom of the barrel in runs scored at 3.7 per game. They have been among the worst on baseball all year for on-base percentage and are next to last in drawing walks.

Another component is the pitching the M’s have delivered. Only the Los Angeles Dodgers have a lower team ERA than Seattle, who has nine pitchers that have seen action in at least nine games with earned run average below four.

The Detroit Tigers are another club on the UNDER train, with 38-27-1 record. The Tigers situation is a little more difficult to understand until to bring out the shovel and start digging around. Detroit is a respectable 13th in runs scored at 4.8 per outing and they allow 4.5 per game. What isn’t so readily seen unless you follow this Motown team, is they have scored three runs or less 29 times, which is over 40 percent of the time they have played in 2009. This inconsistent offense has lent itself to falling below the total.

Manager Jim Leyland has three dependable starters in Jason Verlander, Edwin Jackson and rookie Rick Porcello, who have 3.71 ERA’s or less. Detroit at this writing is tied for the lead in shutouts in baseball with seven.

Part of finding winners on totals is understanding why teams play the way they do and trying to beat the oddsmakers to the punch.

Seeking Super Saturday Results

Got hammered good on Friday with no winners, but were still at 58.4 percent over the last four weeks. Found a very crisp NBA money line system that 85.5 percent and the value isn’t bad at -165. Sal from the Left Coast Connection is having a very good week and offers his Free Play. In the National League, found a pitcher and team in a perfect trend. Good Luck.

What I learned yesterday – Brett Favre’s ego has no boundaries and I’ve been a big time supporter for years, but this is enough. Who wouldn’t want to stick it to some old boss, however after awhile grow up and move on. When I looked at Saturday’s MLB schedule, found it stuffed with great pitching matchups, should be fun day.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON home favorites (Dallas) vs. the money line, revenging four or more losses vs opponent in last two years, a good team (60 to 75 percent) playing a team with a winning record. This NBA system is 53-9, 85.5 percent since 1996.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Josh Johnson and Florida is 9-0 when the total is 9 or 9.5.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Sal is 8-2 in all sports this week and likes the Dodgers to get back on winning beam.

Things to Ponder Betting Futures for Baseball

In many parts of country, another long winter just won’t end. With the cold and snow, you like all your neighbors and co-workers have had more than enough. One very good sign of future weather changing events is the calendar has turned over to March, which means spring training baseball is in session and the colder days will be fewer and further between. Most teams also do either radio or television broadcasts from Arizona or Florida, creating an even greater fever pitch for spring to arrive.

Though baseball bettors pale in comparison to football brethren, there are many who enjoy the day to day grind of trying to beat the oddsmaker and relish the chance to go at it every day. Before you can get to that point, taking stock and studying futures odds gives you a good feel for each team. Here is the list of the most recent odds to win the National League pennant, with the American League arriving next week. (Odds found at various sportsbooks)

Arizona Diamondbacks +650

Arizona has assembled a fine collection of talent, which though still young, should start to produce more consistent results with the experience they have acquired the last few seasons. Brandon Webb and Dan Haren comprise potentially the best one-two punch in baseball at the top of the rotation and if hitters quit trying to jack everything out of the park and hit for better average, no reason the Diamondbacks shouldn’t win the NL West and be solid wager to be in contention for NL crown.

Atlanta Braves +1000

The Atlanta Braves lost 90 games last season and are trying to work back towards contention in unorthodox ways. Derek Lowe has 106 wins since 2002 (tied for third in baseball) and is now the ace of the Atlanta staff. Kenshin Kawakami is a former Japanese Central League MVP and will be called upon to shore up starting pitching. Offensively, outfielder Jeff Francoeur must recover after below average year or too much of the responsibility falls to Chipper Jones, who turns 37 in April and hasn’t played 140 games a year in five seasons.

Chicago Cubs +275

Betting on the Cubs to have another excellent regular season should not be an issue; it’s the postseason that causes fans of Cubbie blue their greatest concern. With no obvious needs in the batting order and in the rotation, how Carlos Marmol holds up as the closer will be watched closely. That is not to say they don’t have other question marks like Kosuke Fukudome and Milton Bradley, however Lou Pinella and Cubs will be judged by how they perform in October, should they get there.

Cincinnati Reds +1600

The old guard is gone and the youngsters have taken over in the Queen City. If Cincinnati fans are skeptical, it’s understandable after eight consecutive losing seasons. If Aaron Harang returns to normal and Edinson Volquez , Johnny Cueto and Micah Owings continue to mature as starters, this club could be surprise in the NL Central.

Colorado Rockies +2500

Did the Colorado Rockies really make it to the World Series in 2007 or was that a mirage? This Denver club was sizzling for about six weeks at the end of that season and returned to being Colorado last year with 74 wins. Manager Clint Hurdle, who is in the final year of contract, has stopped short of saying players were complacent after Fall Classic appearance, yet you have to ask, how can a team that has accomplished almost nothing be complacent? The Rocks are picked fourth in the West which seems about right.

Florida Marlins +3000

Just think if Florida fans actually gave two cents about their baseball team and the Marlins ownership has enough money to keep talented players. Another year of purging players scheduled to make a few extra bucks, only has allowed the seemingly endless supply of talented players coming up through the farm system to make the big club, without much a drop in the standings. Shortstop Hanley Ramirez is the franchise player and his supporting cast is pretty solid. The rotation looks better than most in the National League and closer Matt Lindstrom can bring the heat as fast as summer day in Miami.

Houston Astros +4000

A few preseason magazines have Houston rated as high as third in the Central Division, but oddsmakers are not buying it. Any pitching staff that has Mike Hampton on it can’t be considered a threat and if a baseball team is supposed to be strong up the middle, than how do the Astros deserve any consideration?

Los Angeles Dodgers +800

The Dodgers are still a slightly above average ball club even if Manny Ramirez does decide to sign with the club. Manager Joe Torre watched his club mature late in the season and the best thing they have going again this season is playing in the NL West. If outfielder Juan Pierre can draw more walks and shortstop Rafael Furcal can stay healthy, L.A. can place pressure on opposing defenses and the middle of the order will see more fastballs. Pitcher Chad Billingsley is off 16-win season, but is the 24-year old really ready to be anchor of staff?

Milwaukee Brewers +1700

Off a 90-win season, there should be a lot of excitement surrounding the Milwaukee Brewers right? Instead the Brew Crew is shrouded in relative obscurity. The starting rotation is fair, but who is the bell-cow that can stop a losing streak? If the last place San Diego Padres weren’t willing to pay closer Trevor Hoffman in a big ballpark, how does he figure to do in Milwaukee? The Brewers have plenty of free swingers, too many in fact that hurts offense. Oddsmakers number tells the story of this club for 2009.

New York Mets +275

New York occupies new surroundings at Citi (bailout) Field and believes they have the right combination in the bullpen to overcome what have been serious woes the last couple of seasons. Francisco (K-Rod) Rodriguez brings his 62 saves from a year ago to the Big Apple and J.J. Putz could be the most intimidating setup man in baseball. The everyday lineup still have flaws, but as long as Jose Reyes, David Wright and Carlos Beltran continue to perform, the Mets are legit choice to potentially be NL champs, if they don’t fold in September again.

Philadelphia Phillies +550

It has to drive Mets fans crazy that Philadelphia has sped by them twice and are the defending World Series champions. The game of baseball has changed in trying to pick a World Series contender. Today, keep yourself on the fringes of contention and make September push. The Phillies were 24-6 in last 30 games including post-season and return the nucleus of team that was underrated a season ago. They were second in runs scored and had best bullpen ERA in the National League, plus best stolen base percentage in the majors (84.5 percent on 161 attempts). No reason to believe they shouldn’t be contender again, especially knowing they can bypass New York.

Pittsburgh Pirates +5000

Have to give the Pirates credit; they are consistent, having tied the Phillies record (1933-48) of ineptitude, with 16th straight losing season. 2009 looks like a slam dunk to break the record, as Pittsburgh has little or no farm system to speak of and trades best players for hopefully potential young players that could turn franchise around. It’s not working!

San Diego Padres +4000

Divorce can be messy and nowhere is that more evident than in San Diego. Owner John Moores is trying to comply with California laws of community property, with his soon to be former wife Becky and the Padres are caught in the middle. Jake Peavy will be the opening day starter for San Diego, but don’t expect him to be in Padres uniform by the All-Star break. This cash-strapped organization has many players who may or may not have major league ability, nevertheless will get a shot because of troubles.

San Francisco Giants +1200

The Giants number appears to be too low considering the everyday lineup in less than intimidating. What excites most followers is the pitching staff potential in a weak division. San Francisco has the current Cy Young winner in Tim Lincecum, who won’t be 25-years old until almost mid-season. Matt Cain’s record would improve with run support and general manager Brian Sabean views the Randy Johnson signing as two fold solution. Hopefully, he can help straighten out fellow lefty Barry Zito and Johnson should enjoy spacious area from left-center to right-center.

St. Louis Cardinals +1200

St. Louis won 86 games last season despite having no bullpen to speak of and a frequently patchwork rotation. Though some of the issues that derailed the Cardinals last year still exist, at least answers are possible. Chris Carpenter is the trump card manager Tony LaRussa needs for starting staff. It would be terrific if Carpenter returned to Cy Young form, however having him as reliable No. 2 or 3 starter would not be bad alternative. La Russa also hopes to find the right combination at short and second and have Rick Ankiel play centerfield all year. If closer Chris Perez emerges, could challenge rival Cubs for first place in division.

Washington Nationals +5000

So much for a new ballpark helping Washington out after winning a grand total of 59 games last season. Injuries played a part in the 14-game decline, nonetheless, the Nationals are a long way from entertaining ideas of being .500 club and a new general manager will have to hired after Jim Bowden resigned amid a cloud of suspicion, sending the team in a new direction yet again.

Manny Being Lazy

I honestly don't think Manny Ramirez will be on a Major League Baseball team when the 2009 season commences on Sunday, April 5.

Ramirez rejected a two-year $45 million dollar offer from the Dodgers on Thursday evening. This was an increase from L.A.'s original offer of two years, $37.5 million and an extension of the team's second attempt that was put on the table at one year, $25 million.

I think Ramirez and his slimy, Gollum-like agent Scott Boras will hold out until they see a three-year deal in front of them at the very least.

Manny is content with being Manny, and if that means prolonging his offseason vacation in whatever Latin America country he is sipping on umbrella drinks in I'm sure he won't mind having another round.

I really do believe Ramirez could sit out for the first few months of the season because he is that lazy. Seriously, you've seen the guy play left field, some days he isn't even worthy of a spot on a men's softball league roster.

Unless he was the designated hitter.

Because when Manny steps into that batter's box it's all business. There is no denying, the guy can flat out rake. Ramirez is one of the top three hitters in the game and you could argue even the best. If anyone can get away with missing spring training or more, and come back as a ballistic ball-basher, it is Manny.

I think he will take advantage of a few extra siestas in the early stages of 2009 and then see which team really needs him. As clubhouses, rosters and injuries begin to shake out the demand for Manny will increase. If Ramirez somehow stays out until the All-Star break then he could be auctioned to the highest playoff-contending bidder.

Dodgers owner Frank McCourt said that he feels that his organization is "negotiating against (themselves)" at this stage of the game. He is right, and every time they throw out another offer, the price tag for Manny keeps inflating.

If Los Angeles does finally land the biggest fish in the free agent pool, they will win the NL West. If the San Francisco Giants (the other team supposedly shopping in Manny's Market) make a push, they will take the division because all that club needs is one bat in the lineup with Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and Randy Johnson taking the mound every few days.

Again, I don't expect to see Ramirez lacing up any cleats until at least a few weeks into the season. And the longer Manny sits, the more rested he will be for a playoff run and October.

Writer Scott Cooley offers his thoughts here at 3Daily Winners and other locales.