Ole Miss in prickly SEC Opener

After sailing by S.E. Louisiana 52-6 last Saturday, Mississippi has to start living up to preseason hype and opens conference schedule on the road at South Carolina.

These are heady times at The Grove. Ole Miss (2-0, 1-0 ATS) is ranked 4th in the AP, their highest position in the polls since 1970, when the father of Peyton and Eli Manning was taking snaps in Oxford. The Rebels have won eight games in a row (6-1 ATS) for the first time in almost 37 years.

Coach Houston Nutt hopes the offensive line plays better, as quarterback Jevan Snead hasn’t looked as sharp as expected. Nutt has stated the O-Line has to do a better job sustaining blocks, especially at the tackle positions. The Rebels defense has been good and the secondary has come around faster than expected, however they will be tested by a Steve Spurrier offense rounding into shape under quarterback Stephen Garcia.

South Carolina (2-1, 3-0 ATS) is turning into the “ameba” of college football, taking on whatever shape needed to be competitive in a contest. In the opener, the defense led to a 7-3 victory and the offense scored 37 points in just coming up short at Georgia 41-37, as a touchdown underdog. Last week they handled Florida Atlantic at home 38-16, which means all options are available for this matchup. Garcia looks to be on the come, with a pair of very good performances. Spurrier has graded his team “OK” in all facets.

“We’re trying to get better in every area. We haven’t dominated in any particular phase. We haven’t been terrible but the whole team’s trying to get better. - Spurrier stated. The Gamecocks are 7-3 with ordinary 5-5 ATS record against the SEC West.

Bookmaker.com has Ole Miss as four-point favorites with total of 53. Though it’s only the first conference game of the year, the high ranking and expectations are from a bygone era and take getting used to. The Rebels are 4-8 ATS as a road favorite since 2001 and a loss means playing uphill all season with Alabama and LSU yet to come. Too many in-game hiccups could spell doom for Mississippi, who is 2-14 SU and ATS in SEC openers since 1993 and has lost five in a row and failed to cover 11(that is correct) straight.

In the last five meetings between these schools, the home team is 0-5 ATS, with the favorite covering the number only one time. Coach Nutt believes the defense is the strength of the team, which translates into South Carolina having a manageable running game for down and distance purposes. If not, Garcia could face stern Ole Miss pass rush, which in turn might lead to turnovers.

For fans of scoring trends, the Rebels are 9-0 ATS after scoring 40 or more points and South Carolina is 5-2 ATS off a 20-point or greater victory.

On ESPN, the Rebels lofty ranking will be challenged and something has to give on the total, with Mississippi 5-2 OVER on Thursday’s and the home team 6-2-1 UNDER on the same day of the week.

Know your College Football Coaches before wagering

For those that love to wager on college football, it comes in handy to know certain tendencies of the head coach. Though virtually every coach could care less about the point spread on any game they are involved in coaching, word will filter down thru various channels that high-profile alumni with large banking accounts wouldn’t mind the home team covering a spread against a particular opponent. Though no head coach will worry about such a trivial matter consciously leading into a contest, given the right set of circumstances late in a contest with his team comfortably ahead, but not covering the spread, he might be inclined to run up the score.

Though there is no way to prove a coaches motive, in 1995, coach Tom Osborne of Nebraska had the No.1 team in the country heading into last regular season game against Oklahoma at Lincoln. The Cornhuskers were monstrous 34-point favorites and basically was toying with the Sooners, leading 30-0 late in the game. In the final drive, Nebraska went for a first down THREE times on fourth down and eventually scored a touchdown to cover the spread, with 37-0 shutout. If I hadn’t seen it with my own eyes, I never would have believed it.

Another example was last season when Florida hosted Miami in Gainesville. The Gators were 23-point favorites against the Hurricanes and that night despite dominating the action, led just 23-3 in the final minutes. Urban Meyer could have easily run out the clock deep in Miami territory, but instead had Tim Tebow throw two passes towards end zone before settling for field goal and a Push.

Most bettors might know about the head coach where they live, or even the coaches within the conference. Only a select few would be able to recall all the different variables from all the head coaches in the FBS.

Here is a breakdown of the top coaches in several areas based on latest runs. (Coaches only at present school)

Coaches with best home ATS records-

Troy Calhoun – Air Force -8-2
Chris Ault -Nevada – 19-7
Kirk Ferentz – Iowa – 39-22
Garry Patterson – TCU – 36-19
Al Groh - Virginia- 31-18

Notes- Randy Edsall of Connecticut deserves to be mentioned with 26-16 ATS at Rentschler Stadium. Miami’s Randy Shannon has made the Hurricanes at Play Against team in their new home with 3-9 ATS mark. Bob Stoops might have a harder time keeping up with 35-25 ATS record in Norman without Sam Bradford at quarterback for unknown period of time. Charley Weis has making up to do to Irish bettors with 11-16 ATS mark.

Coaches with best road ATS records-

Turner Gill –Buffalo- 17-6
Tom O’Brien – N.C. State – 8-3
Mark Dantonio – Mich. State 8-4
Charlie Weatherbie –UL- Monroe – 26-16
Jim Grobe – Wake Forest– 28-19

Notes-In years past, Mark Richt of Georgia would have been on this list, however 3-5-1 spread record of late drops him to still solid 31-22-1 ATS mark. Mark Snyder is in trouble in his fifth season at Marshall and for good reason with 3-22 and 6-17 ATS record. As good as Chris Ault is at home, he is a dismal 14-22 ATS after being spanked by Notre Dame earlier. Mike Sanford of UNLV is looking to finish .500 or better in Sin City and in order to so he needs the Rebels to be better than 0-7 ATS against .500 or less teams.

Coaches with best favorite ATS records-

Troy Calhoun – Air Force -9-2
Mark Mangino –Kansas -25-9
Mike Gundy –Okla. State – 15-7
Chris Ault- Nevada – 21-12
Steve Spurrier – South Carolina -14-7

Notes-Considering the number of large figures Florida has to overcome; Urban Meyer’s 27-18 ATS record is fairly impressive. Though Wake Forest is great play as underdog, they are 19-28 ATS as chalk. On a similar note, Vanderbilt has is off first bowl game in 27 years, yet flounders as favorite with 6-13 ATS record. The price isn’t right on Mike Price from UTEP, sporting unflattering 10-19 against the spread record in this role.

Coaches with best underdog ATS records-

Skip Holtz – ECU- 20-7
Butch Davis – UNC – 8-3
Tom O’Brien – N.C. State – 14-6
Turner Gill –Buffalo- 20-10
Mack Brown – Texas – 10-5

Notes- Skip Holtz learned from his father about being able to succeed as underdog. The same cannot be said about Ohio State’s Jim Tressel who is pedestrian 9-8 versus the oddsmaker. Mentioned Wake’s coach Grobe above, 31-17 ATS will swell any bankroll when the Demon Deacons are catching points. Two shockers from the desert. Mike Stoops’ Wildcats are 20-14 ATS receiving points, while Arizona State’s Dennis Erickson is 1-7 ATS.

Best coaches Off a SU Win, ATS records-

Troy Calhoun – Air Force -13-5
Turner Gill –Buffalo- 11-4
Tom O’Brien – N.C. State – 8-3
Mark Mangino- Kansas – 27-12
Dick Tomey – S.J. State -12-6

Notes- Rick Brooks of Kentucky has had success in Lexington and his squads follow up success with 18-10 ATS performance. With Missouri greatly improved the last few years, it easy to forget Gary Pinkel is 24-27 ATS after a W. Kyle Whittingham’s perfect season helped raise Utah to 20-12 ATS with victory after victory. Though Pat Fitzgerald is well liked in the Windy City, he’s detested by Northwestern backers with 4-13 ATS record after the ‘Cats have conquered opponent.

Best coaches Off a SU Loss, ATS records-

Pete Carroll – USC -10-3
Tom O’Brien – N.C. State – 8-3
Mike Leach – Texas Tech -21-10
Bobby Bowden –Florida State- 43-23
Randy Edsall– UConn – 28-15

Notes- Any sports bettor should have made a large chunk of money following the exploits of the Top Five in this category. The same cannot be said of Idaho’s Robb Akey who is 4-13 ATS following a loss. Dan Hawkins is losing support by the minute in Boulder and 7-14 ATS record isn’t making matters better. What about blustery Fresno State head coach Pat Hill, who loves the big moment, but is 19-33 ATS off a loss.

College Football is Back!

Finally! After what seems like an eternity, all the talk about college football will cease and the games will be played, with salivating sports bettors ready for action. Five lined games will open the festivities and we’ll cover four of them here, including the very first one, South Carolina at N.C. State. Let the fun begin!

South Carolina at N.C. State

Folks in Columbia are still waiting for the Steve Spurrier magic to kick in. In four seasons, the ol’ ball coach is 28-22 and 26-20-1 against the spread. After losing last three games, including bowl invite by a combined score of 118-30, the never satisfied Spurrier changed out five coaches trying to find magic formula to turn South Carolina into SEC contender. With only 12 starters returning, Chris Angel would have a hard time making this illusion work. Previous quarterbacks have transferred out except for sophomore Stephen Garcia, who has worked on being better passer to match his athletic running style. The offense only rushed for 94.1 yards per game last year and new line coach Eric Wolford is preaching toughness. The defense has talent in front seven; however secondary has to be rebuilt after finishing second in the country in passing yards allowed. The Gamecocks are just 2-6 ATS in last eight road games.

North Carolina State closed the 2008 regular season with four wins to earn bowl berth, before falling 29-23 to an equally hot Rutgers club in the Papajohns.com bowl. Coach Tom O’Brien’s disciplined style started to take root and 15 starters are coming back from last year’s turnaround squad. O’Brien enters his third season in Raleigh with 11-14 record, though has bettors attention with 15-8 ATS mark. Leading the way is ACC Rookie of the Year Russell White, who tossed 17 touchdowns, with only one interception. The offensive line should be steady with three starters back, however quality depth is nonexistent beyond starting five. The linebackers are difference-makers and the defensive line has potential All-ACC performers Alan-Michael Cash and Willie Young. The secondary has questions that will have to be answered for another bowl trip for a squad that is on 7-0-1 ATS run to start a new campaign.

With weeks to look at the side and total from Bookmaker.com and other wagering outlets, sports bettors have taken N.C. State from three-point favorites to five. The total has remained relatively stable moving from 45 to 46.

North Carolina State was embarrassed 34-0 at South Carolina as two touchdown underdogs last year and are looking forward to return engagement at Carter-Finley Stadium this go-round. This matchup will once again be on ESPN at 7 Eastern and coach Steve Spurrier is only 7-7 against the spread in non-conference games and has usual early date with Georgia next on September 12. South Carolina is 2-7-1 ATS facing non-conference foes before the Bulldogs. N.C. State is 4-1-1 ATS hosting the Gamecocks.

Troy at Bowling Green

This game will garner very little attention on the national scope, however is extremely important to Troy and the Sun Belt Conference. The SBC teams have for years taken paydays to be somebody’s patsy (they still will, just less frequently); however they have a goal in mind today. The Sun Belt wants to gain recognition like the MAC teams and in order to surpass them and gain bragging rights, they have to start knocking them off.

Troy is the unanimous choice to win the Sun Belt and is loaded on both sides of the ball. If the offensive line comes together, the Trojans could surpass last year’s offense that averaged more than 32 points per game. Defensively, the athletic front seven is a load for a team that is 7-3 ATS on the non-conference road.

First year coach Dave Clawson is right about his team’s non-conference schedule, “It’s a really challenging schedule,” Clawson said about playing Troy, Boise State, at Missouri and at Marshall. “The one thing I do know is that we will be well-prepared for our MAC schedule by the time we are through with our out-of-conference schedule.” With just 10 starters returning, the Eagles might be hard pressed to improve on 3-10 ATS home record the last three years. Troy is touchdown favorite.

North Texas at Ball State

On ESPNU at 7:30 Eastern, two other Sun Belt and MAC teams will collide. North Texas ruled the SBC in the early years of this decade, no more, having won five conference games in last four years. Coach Todd Dodge is convinced the personnel is improving and if his redshirt freshman son Riley can rev up the offense, brighter days could be ahead in Denton for a team that is 0-20 and 2-18 ATS in non-conference road games.

Ball State won’t look like the same team. A new coach, new quarterback and four new offensive linemen are where it starts in Muncie. Redshirt freshman Kelly Page takes over for prolific passer Nate Davis and hopes his line will give him time to show off his arm. The defense switches to 4-3 from 3-4, however has speed and athletes on this side of the ball seldom seen on the Ball State campus. The Cardinals are 16-point favorites and are 7-1 ATS as home chalk.

Utah at Utah State

It will be a tough encore for Utah after completing 13-0 season and ranked No.2 in the final polls after taking apart Alabama 31-17 in the Sugar Bowl. The Utes lost QB Brian Johnson to graduation and coach Kyle Whittingham has decided to keep everyone in suspense about who his new signal caller will be. Blog reports from observers have seen junior college transfer Terrance Cain taking the majority of the snaps with the first team. Utah is listed as 21-point favorite over in-rival Utah State and they are 10-5-1 ATS as 20-point or more choice.

Utah players and coaches will see a familiar face on the Aggies sideline in Gary Andersen, who has been the Utes defensive coordinator the last three seasons. Anderson has brought excitement to Logan, though the talent will still have to arrive later. In “The Battle of the Brothers” Utah is 11-0 and 8-3 ATS since 1998, with the visitor 8-1 ATS. This is on the MTN at 9:00 Eastern.

CFB Pre-Season Magazines offer intrigue - Part Dos

In part two of our article about college football pre-season magazines, we’ll take a look at the other five conferences, the Big Ten, Pac-10, SEC, MAC and Sun Belt. Three of the five leagues and or divisions have unanimous choices and it doesn’t take brain surgeon to figure what teams those are, with a few others up for grabs. Read on to learn more and start preparing to place your bets.

Big Ten
1) Ohio State
2) Penn State
3) Michigan State
4) Iowa
5) Illinois
6) Michigan
7) Wisconsin
8) Minnesota
9) Northwestern
10) Purdue
11) Indiana

Analysis- Here’s a surprise; Ohio State and Penn State are the favorites to win the Big Ten. Well, not really. The Buckeyes reload with the best of them and they will find out early where they are on national scope, hosting USC. Honestly, not sure why the Nittany Lions are rated this high with all the personnel losses and they haven’t recruited like the other top schools in the country. This also might be indictment of Big Ten. Michigan State continues to improve under coach Mark Dantonio, however quarterback and running back positions must be filled. Iowa could finish higher if lines on both sides of the pigskin dominate. Illinois could be most explosive offense in the conference and they might need to be, with so many new faces in back seven of defense. Rich Rodriguez better have a winning record in Ann Arbor, or fans of the Maize and Blue will really become restless. Minnesota opens new outdoor venue, but also has trips to Penn State and Ohio State that will impede progress. The rest of the teams have more holes than a Dunkin Donuts. Another so-so year in Big Ten Country.

Pac-10
1) USC
2) California
3) Oregon
4) Oregon State
5) UCLA
6) Arizona State
7) Stanford
8) Arizona
9) Washington
10) Washington State

Analysis – When somebody raises the bar to a new level, aren’t those chasing the lead dog supposed to at least catch them in time, if not surpass their efforts? In spite of only having 12 returning starters (three on defense), USC is the unanimous choice to repeat as Pac-10 champs. Besides Pete Carroll’s ability to fill a three-deep roster with incredible talent, this happens to be the year the Pacific 10 is quarterback poor. Only Washington and Oregon have field leaders that can be counted on to start the year. If one team has legit shot at the Trojans this year, it is California. If Kevin Riley improves accuracy to receiving targets, the 15 other Bears’ players that started last season should be even hungrier. Cal will know where they stand by early October with games at Oregon and USC, the first two on Pac-10 slate. Oregon has new coach in Chip Kelly needing to rebuild O-Line. Oregon State will have several fresh eager Beavers on defense. The rest are trying cover up weakness, with the Washington universities trying to lay foundation.

SEC East
1) Florida
2) Georgia
3) Tennessee
4) So. Carolina
5) Kentucky
6) Vanderbilt

SEC West
1) Mississippi
2) Alabama
3) LSU
4) Arkansas
5) Auburn
6) Mississippi State

Analysis – In the East Division, Florida is the hands-down choice to be play for SEC title again and is most everyone’s No.1 team to start the season. Georgia has just the kind of team that excels when in this position. Coach Mark Richt’s best teams have been those with lower expectations. Tennessee’s Lane Kiffin will eventually have to stop talking and coach, trying to bring in players that can knock off the Gators and Bulldogs. Steve Spurrier has found out top recruits like Gainesville better than Columbia, SC. As mundane as the East appears, the West Division should be rollicking fun. Ole Miss has gathered the most first place votes, with a talented squad led by QB Jevan Snead and Oxford will play host to Alabama, LSU and Tennessee, with Florida or Georgia nowhere in sight. If Greg McElroy is as prepared to lead the Crimson Tide as he believes, those that choose Bama to win the West should be correct. Coach Les Miles has always been unafraid of change and brought in top notch coaches like John Chavis (14 years at Tennessee) to improve his defense. Check with Bookmaker.com for the latest odds. These Tigers will be trouble. This is still the best conference in football by fair margin. (Did you guess that was Tim Tebow pic?)

MAC-East
1) Buffalo
2) Bowling Green
3) Temple
4) Ohio U
5) Akron
6) Kent State
7) Miami-O

MAC –West
1) Central Michigan
2) Western Michigan
3) Northern Illinois
4) Ball State
5) Toledo
6) Eastern Michigan

Analysis- The MAC conference has its up and down years and this could be one of the not so great years with five new coaches among the 13 universities. What last season proved is mediocrity or losing, won’t cut it in the MAC anymore. This conference needs to put fannies in the seats and have teams that play well with all it’s weekday televised games during the course of the season. Buffalo created vast excitement, winning the East Division and is the odds-on choice to repeat, with Bowling Green and Ohio U. snagging first place votes. In the West Division, the two best quarterbacks in the league reside on that half of the ledger. Dan LeFevour will once again be at the helm for Central Michigan, while Tim Hiller is under center for Western Michigan. None of the rest of the squads are presumed to compete for West crown. Everyone is still scratching their heads at Ball State, why Brady Hoke left his alma mater to coach San Diego State. At best a lateral career move for Hoke.

Sun Belt
1) Troy
2) Arkansas State
3) Florida Atlantic
4) Middle Tennessee State
5) UL-Monroe
6) Florida International
7) Louisiana- Lafayette
8) North Texas
9) Western Kentucky

Analysis- Maybe it’s the nickname Trojans, but Troy has the same appeal in the Sun Belt Conference that USC has out West, being unanimous choice. Troy joined the Sun Belt in 2004 and has won three championships in a row. Coach Larry Blakeney recruits well, sets high expectations and hits the road to play top teams like Florida this season. The league as a whole is improving and Arkansas State and Florida Atlantic are part of that development. The Red Wolves are loaded at skill positions, while the Owls are flying with confidence, having won six of last seven contests a year ago, including the Motor City Bowl upset of Central Michigan. Middle Tennessee State has 19 starters back, however many played as freshmen and sophomores. The Blue Raiders have upset potential if Dwight Dasher emerges as quarterback. The remaining group will try to avoid last place, hoping its newest member Western Kentucky, will occupy that spot in 2009.

College Football Game Writeups

The old Florida football coach returns for a second trip to many of his greatest triumphs. Steve Spurrier arrives in Gainesville with a ranked South Carolina club, trying to defeat what many consider the best team in the country today. Ohio State was thought to be that team by many in August; instead they are seeking revenge at Illinois. The ACC continues to try to solve convoluted mess with North Carolina and Maryland winner staying in contention. Texas still has hopes to win the Big 12 South and can’t slip up on the road against risky Kansas club. Oregon State still has the inside track to win the Pac-10 and go to Rose Bowl for the first since 1965 and has to defeat Cal at home to keep advancing.

To read the complete article, click here.