3DW Line Moves – Crucial Betting Info

A thinner baseball slate has those doing baseball betting fixated on four contests. Two of the games feature side action and the other two hone in on the totals. Take a read and see if you agree or disagree with the wagering public in Thursday’s action.

L.A. Angels at Baltimore 7:05 EDT

Buck Showalter is paying immediate benefits for the Baltimore Orioles, winning his first two games as the skipper. The Orioles offense has come to life scoring 15 total runs in back to back contests, something that has happened only twice since June 25. The O’s will face face Dan Haren (7-10, 4.42) and see if they can orchestrate their third home sweep of the season. The focus for baseball bettors has been on the total, since it began at 8.5 and has been elevated to 9. Granted, Haren was pitching for an awful Arizona club, however his ERA was still lofty 4.86 and he’s 16-7 OVER in 23 starts. While there is a little excitement in the land of crap cakes, the Orioles are 26-11 UNDER at home having won two of their last three.

Colorado at Pittsburgh 7:05 EDT

The Rockies have won five of six and Pittsburgh is playing like Pittsburgh, having lost 10 of 13, so why would online sports betting analysts be favoring the Pirates? The Bucs opened as +161 money line home underdogs and have actually wandered downward to +150 or less at various sportsbooks. The Pittsburgh bullpen was dreadful in 9-4 defeat to Cincinnati and the Pirates are 4-22 after the bullpen was rocked for six or more runs since 2008. The answer my friends is not blowing in the wind, its right here. Did you know Colorado is 4-14 in road encounters after a win and astonishing 0-9 (-9.2 Units) as visitors having won three of their last four games this season? Toss in the fact tonight’s starter Jeff Francis (4-3, 4.44) and Rockies are 0-7 (-9.7 Units) vs. an NL team with an on-base percentage of .315 or worse and just maybe this dog might have some bite.

San Francisco at Atlanta 7:10 EDT

This potential playoff matchup is strictly about perception. Tim Lincecum and the Giants were -121 ML road faves and are now -108 or lower at online sports betting outlets. Atlanta’s Major League best 36-14 home record undoubtedly is a factor, as is 17-5 mark at Turner Field playing against teams with a winning record this season. Yet, it is impossible to ignore San Francisco’s recent 13-3 joy ride on the road for exactly the last month, plus having the knowledge of Lincecum being 6-1 with 2.70 ERA against Atlanta. The outcome could be decided by how the Braves batters hit in the clutch. After batting under .200 with runners in scoring position for a 10-game stretch, Atlanta busted out eight runs in stopping New York yesterday. Taking advantage of similar opportunities probably will determine the Game 1 winner.

Cleveland at Boston 9:40 EDT

The Red Sox are doing their best to field a team with all their injuries. They’ve lost two of three to Cleveland and want to salvage a split with Daisuke Matsuzaka (7-3, 4.22) on the mound. The right-hander is 3-0 with a 0.86 ERA in his last three starts against the Indians. The wagering public was in sell mode for this matchup at total of 8.5, with the new number is 9. Matsuzaka is 33-15 UNDER when the total is 9 to 9.5; however Boston is 10-2-1 OVER after their opponent allowed two or less runs. The Tribe is 12-4-2 UNDER after a win in last 18 outings, but is 6-2 OVER playing a Game 4 of a series.

3DW Bonus Info

Money Line Nugget
The L.A. Angels are 12-0 (+13.3 Units) against the money line after a game where they had 17 or more hits over the last three seasons.

Totals Nugget
San Diego is 14-2 OVER in August road games the last two years with average score of 11.6 total runs.

Run Line Nugget
Florida is 30-11 (+19.2 Units) against the run line vs. teams outscoring opponents by 0.5 or more runs a game in the second half of the season since last year.

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San Francisco Giants have bettor’s attention

Yesterday went to take in Tim Lincecum and the rest of his teammates in the black and orange hats and see if this reporter could figure out why they are playing such good baseball. Having struck out and walked more than enough batters in my youth, I always appreciate outstanding pitchers and try to make it point to see as many as possible when they come to town.

It just so happens the San Francisco Giants (56-43, +7.7 units) are racking up profits faster than Major League teams selling $10 beers, winning 16 of last 20 and collecting +13.35 units of profit, moving into second place in the NL West, trailing San Diego by four games in the loss column.

What is most noticeable about the Giants of course is their pitching, the starters in particular. Lincecum didn’t begin the game with his best stuff, unable to command his curveball and Arizona batters were sitting on his fastball and tallied two runs in the second inning. However, as the game wore on, the long-haired competitive right-hander settled into a groove and never permitted another run over the final six innings of work.

This giant streak has seen Giants pitchers allow only 2.5 runs per game, which gives the offense a chance in every contest even if they don’t score many runs early on. This type of pitching has brought about something that hasn’t happened in nearly a century of Giants baseball. Among their last 15 victories is a pair of four-game sweeps (at Milwaukee and at Arizona). The last time this franchise accomplished this feat was 1912, 98 years ago. (OMG)

Another factor is this San Francisco team has been averaging 5.8 runs per game compared to 4.4 for the season (10th in the NL). Aubrey Huff is batting over .300 and is their leading home run hitter with 19. Pablo Sandoval is starting to hit despite personal issues. If you haven’t seen catcher Buster Posey swing the bat, he looks every bit as good as his .371 batting average. His 18-game hit streak (he’s hitting .472 in this stretch) is the second-longest for a rookie in Giants history, passing one Hall of Famer Orlando Cepeda and chasing another in Willie McCovey, whose streak stands at 22 games. With six more games to play this week, Posey could also break the team record for runs batted in for a rookie of 24 set by Jim Ray Hart in 1964 having 23 this July.

After their 6-1 road excursion, San Francisco opens up homestand with Florida (49-49, -0.1) tonight. Manager Bruce Boche hands the ball to Barry Zito (8-5, 3.45 ERA) who has had a career resurgence to help the Giants this season and they are a combined 21-13 (+11.3 Units) against the money line after a win the last three seasons. Sportbet.com has the San Fran as -140 ML favorites and the 2002 AL Cy Young winner and his club are 11-4 against NL East squads. The left-hander is 5-0 with a 2.15 ERA vs. the Marlins.

Florida arrives in the Bay Area playing very well with seven triumphs in last nine outings and they are 20-11 as underdogs with Ricky Nolasco (10-7, 4.50) the starting pitcher. Nevertheless, it is difficult to discount the way the Giants are playing and they are 37-17 as a home favorite of -125 to -150 since 2008. The Fish on the other hand are 6-18 vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better this season.

Until further notice, it’s awfully hard not to back San Francisco with reasonable money lines.

3Daily Winners Line Moves

The weekend is almost here and so are additional sports betting opportunities. Baseball bettors today have returned to a couple of the same matchups as yesterday as well as placing bets on what they see as winnable wagers. Let’s delve into what they are doing.

Minnesota at Baltimore 7:05 EDT

Enough sports bettors yesterday believed they had reasonable value on Baltimore and changed the odds on the Orioles as underdogs. Baltimore was shutout 5-0 and the focus has in turn changed to totals. This matchup started today at 9 and has been bumped up to 9.5.The reasons are plentiful with Jeremy Guthrie (3-10, 4.58 ERA) mostly ineffective and 9-29 in night games the last two seasons. (O’s Record) Minnesota has finally taken Nick Blackburn out of the rotation and replaced with Steve Duensing (3-1, 1.67), who has made 39 relief appearances this year. Duensing went 5-1 with a 2.73 ERA in nine starts as a rookie in 2009 and it is forecasted he will be held to a pitch count of 60-80. The Twins have pitched well lately with its spotty offense and are 15-4 UNDER in road games after three or more consecutive Under’s, while Guthrie’s is 19-8 UNDER when the total is 9 to 9.5. The action might be moving the wrong direction.

Atlanta at Florida 7:05 EDT

The Marlins were a -119 money line favorite on the overnight line and have dropped precipitously to a short fave or even an underdog at some locations. Florida sends rookie Alex Sanabia (1-1, 2.12) to stride the rubber and he’s been sharp in a couple of outings for team that is 12-3 after batting .250 or worse over a 20-game span. Atlanta has a built a seven-game lead in the NL East, thanks to their stellar play at home. They will look to continue to improve on the road (22-26) and are 23-9 as visitors vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game in the second half of the season. Derek Lowe (10-8, 4.39) needs more run support not being the same ground-ball pitcher of years past, yet he and the Braves are 8-0 away from home against clubs that strike out seven or more times after playing half their schedule. Watch this line closely as the Fish are 0-10 as a home underdog of +100 to +125.

Cincinnati at Houston 8:05 EDT

The Reds Travis Wood (0-1, 2.02) has pitched well enough in his three starts to at least pick up a couple of victories, unfortunately for him; he’s been on the wrong side of a pair of 1-0 shutouts. Wood will seek elusive first “W” without the support of those betting on sports. Cincinnati was a -170 ML pick and has toppled to -150 or less. The Reds have matched up well against impatient teams like Houston and are 6-0 in visiting uniforms vs. opposing squads’ hitters who draw three walks or less a contest. With Astros starter Bud Norris 0-4, with 7.36 ERA at “Juice” Park and Cincy 13-3 facing NL teams scoring 3.8 or less runs a game, the lower ML offers greater value.

San Francisco at Arizona 7:05 EDT

Matt Cain blanked the Snakes 3-0 last night, lowering the team ERA to 2.80 in previous 17 outings (San Fran 13-4). Giants’ starter Jonathan Sanchez (7-6, 3.42) will attempt to keep pace with pitching brethren having shown glimpses of dominance lately, yet still far too inconsistent. The lefty’s up and down efforts concern sports bettors, moving San Francisco from -124 on the ML to -110 or less. Arizona’s Edwin Jackson isn’t exactly Mr. Stability, with 1-2 mark and a 7.16 ERA in three outings since his no-hitter. The D-Backs are 2-11 revenging four or more straight losses versus opponent, while Sanchez and the Giants are beleaguered 1-12 in road battles after a triumph since last season.

Chic. White Sox at Oakland 10:05 EDT

The Oakland A’s are playing their best baseball of the season having won seven of eight and moving ever closer to second place Los Angeles. The A’s are averaging almost 10 hits per game in this stretch and are 10-1 after scoring five or runs like they did against Boston in 6-4 triumph Wednesday. Terrific Trevor Cahill (9-3, 3.19) is the Oakland starter and he is 5-1 at home and the A’s are 12-4 in all his starts. The Athletics began as -124 ML play and have been bet down to -110 or lower, which is surprising. The A’s hitters have solved Mark Buehrle (8-8, 4.18) almost his entire career, with the lefty just 3-12 against Oakland. The Pale Hose and Buehrle are 4-14 in his last 18 starts against winning teams, making this look like the wagering public is backing the wrong side.

3DW Bonus Info

Money Line Nugget
Tampa Bay has lost 17 in a row at Cleveland.

Totals Nugget
Kansas City is 17-3 OVER vs. teams who strand 7.5 or more runners on base per game this season; with average total score 11.4 RPG.

Run Line Nugget
Pittsburgh is 9-26 (-26.1 Units) against the run line vs. an NL team with a batting average of .255 or worse in the second half of the season over the last two years, losing by 2.5 RPG.

Thursday Selections and Big News

Yesterday was fabulous with 4-1 overall record with only loss coming in extra innings. That takes our record to 121-66, a bedrock solid 64.7 percent. Tonight’s Top Trend is run line selection and Kendall offers another terrific play for Free. Good Luck

What I letting you know today – The GUARANTEED Picks are back and we have one in the American League tonight.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) Earlier today there was a system on Florida (which ended up being correct), however nothing of note for tonight, thus passing.

Free Baseball Trend -2) C.C. Sabathia and the Yankees are 13-1 against the run line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game in the second half of the season, winning by 5.8 runs per contest.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Kendall knocked two in a row and goes for three straight expecting the Giants to bag Arizona.

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Start of great holiday weekend

Having a vast number of duties to attend to, been a little so on the upkeep but we are still 90-52 in last 142 plays right here at 3Daily Winners. Ron of the Left Coast Connection is still clicking away winners and offers his best play for Free. We have a perfect trend on an AL visitor and the Best System is a totals play at 85 percent! Good Luck

Over the last 10 days, 3Daily Winners is #2 in MLB units at Cappers Monitor.

What I thought the last few days – It is a delight to have my daughter home. She’s a big Dodgers fan (don’t ask why) and we are going the next two nights.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) Play Under on road teams like the Giants against the total when they average less than a home run per game, against a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less HR’s a start, with a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is better than 70 percent. Got that, what you need to know is this totals system is 34-6, 85 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Tampa Bay is 10-0 after three straight games with two or more stolen bases over the last two seasons.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Ron of the LLC continues to shine on 25-8 MLB run and has the Tigers to maul the Mariners.

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Hail to Saturday!

Even thou we had the Celtics right on Thursday; it was not an official play thus we were .500 and now 75-39. Like to believe we could have a great day this Saturday and have a System that is 82.7 percent, a solid Trend that is 12-1 and hot sports bettor with a quality Free play. Good Luck

What I thought today – How dumb are the Cubs and White Sox. They have the Windy City showdown, classic or whatever it is called and their title sponsor is British Petroleum. They said they are cutting back the promotional aspects with BP, are they so desperate for money they would even have anything to do with these idiots? Disgraceful in my opinion.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) Play On all favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 like Detroit, averaging 0.9 or less HR's a game on the season, after a win by four runs or more. Dating back 13 years ago this system is 105-22, 82.7 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) San Francisco is 12-1 in home games vs. teams whose hitters draw three walks or less a game over the last two seasons, winning by 1.4 RPG.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Kyle is 7-1 the last two days and has the North Siders over the South Siders in Chicago.

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Wednesday's material of note

Goodness, another 3-0 day makes our record 51-23, 68.9 percent for last 74 choices. The Top Trend is in the heart of Texas and the LCC consensus plays have been saucier than Megan Fox’s language in recent interview. We have systems article about baseball, check out the Phillies one at 82.5 percent. Good Luck

What I noticed today - Online sports betting oddsmakers were impressed with how easily the Lakers scored against Phoenix in totaling 128 points on 58 percent shooting. Los Angeles wasn’t exactly a defensive juggernaut with the Suns shooting 49.8 percent; however don’t you wonder just a little bit about the total moving SIX points from Game 1 to Game 2 to 216?

How bad are things in Brew Town? Milwaukee has lost eight straight and despite their history of dominating Pittsburgh, they have fallen from -170 opening money line road favorite and to -147 or less at most sportsbooks.

The Atlanta Braves began the day as -150 home favorites, but have sunk to -130 or lower against Cincinnati. The first place Reds are 12-4 playing against a team with a losing record this season and finding all kinds of different ways to win. Braves starter Kenshin Kawakami is 0-6 with 5.79 and he and Atlanta are 4-15 vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game.

Scuffling Seattle was supposed to be an AL West contender and are if you hold the newspaper upside down. The Mariners are -120 choice down from -140 and just can’t get out of their own way with 6-18 record after a loss this season.

The Giants and Diamondbacks division matchup started at nine and at last look is up to Un10. Plenty of reasons for sports bettors to believe this will come true since San Fran starter Todd Wellemeyer has 9.49 road ERA and though Ian Kennedy has been more effective (3.58 ERA) for Arizona, unless he’s able to pitch complete game, the Snakes bullpen will enter the contest with outrageous 7.97 earned run average this season.

MLB Betting Nuggets

Play on teams like Philadelphia against a -1.5 run line, who are good NL offensive team scoring 5.0 or more runs a game against a quality starting pitcher (ERA<=3.70), after allowing two runs or less two straight games. (40-13 L5Y)

Toronto is 9-1 against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record this season, winning by 1.8 runs per game.

Tom Gorzelanny of the Cubs is 12-0 OVER as a road underdog of +100 or higher over the last three seasons, with average total score of 10.9 RPG.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) See system article below.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Texas Rangers are 13-2 vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.100 or better over the last two seasons.

Free Baseball Pick -3) The Left Coast Connection consensus is 8-0 behind the Phillies tonight and FYI -14-3 on the Suns with the points.

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Saturday Selections

Sporting a 40-22 record here, our Best System is 86.4 percent in afternoon action. The Top Trend is reverse perfect in the AL West and Slick Rick thinks he has another slick pick in MLB action. Good Luck

What I thought today- Besides doing all this, I’m a fan of certain teams but keep it guarded so people don’t think I have favoritism one way or the other. (I seldom bet on teams I like actually) However I am a fan of the Boston Bruins and last night’s loss definitely left a mark.

At the Preakness today, different wagers that include Super Saver, Lookin at Lucky and Paddy O’Prado.

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Free Baseball System -1) Play On home favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 like the Giants who average less than a home run per outing, after a win by six runs or more. Since 1997 this MLB system is 51-8, 86.4 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Oakland A’s are 0-11 vs. team’s with a terrible bullpen whose WHIP is 1.750 or worse over the last three seasons.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Slick Rick is 19-5 the last week in baseball and has Boston with Lester tonight.

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Base Hits can lead to Big Profits

While going thru Bill James 2010 “Gold Mine” book, came across statistical information that only baseball nuts would enjoy.

Part of James wisdom is taking something simple and applying it in common sense manner. For example if you score more runs than your opponent you will win 100 percent of the time. Pretty straight forward.

The article went on to talk above the value of base hits. No discussion of home runs, doubles, walks or even on-base percentage, just hitting the ball where the fielder cannot catch it.
Last season if you take away the all games that each team had the same number of hits in a ballgame; the final record was 1,766-433, a winning percentage of .803 for the club with more base hits in a single contest.

The light bulb switch went on in my dome and I started to wonder how this plays out for wagering purposes.

Pulled out all 30 teams’ home games (no reason to road contests since it’s the same) and looked to see what kind of profits are to be found in this fact-finding mission.

The most obvious aspect uncovered is there is a lot of money to be made by correctly determining the team that will have the higher amount of hits.

In the National League, teams with most base knocks are 105-34, 75.5 percent this season (thru 4-27). This generates a profit of +70.05 units. It goes without saying nobody is going to wager on every baseball game every day, still not many systems of any kind are going to yield these sorts of profits looking at each contest. How this ends up being such a money-maker is of the 105 wins, 37 were underdogs, help building the bankroll.

In the American League, the news is even better despite fewer games because of two less teams. Here we have an overall record of 89-25, 78.0 percent, yielding a handsome profit +70.25. Once again a healthy number of underdogs were part of the equation, as 36 of 89 winners were not favored. (Tampa Bay 12-1 when they outhit opposition)

In the interest of disclosure, this sample is just from April and no real way to know if these profits would hold up over a whole season, but based on “Gold Mine’s” findings, no reason to believe they shouldn’t.

Our next step is identifying how one could determine what teams will out-hit their opponents. Let’s start with taking swings at the dish.

Major League clubs that are near or above the median levels of batting average and have three or more games with nine or more hits have to be considered a play on team. When teams have this many base hits consistently, that probably means three players in the line-up are stroking it and as is the case of most hitting streaks, they can go along for about a week seeing the ball really well.

Conversely, when teams are totaling six or fewer hits for a few outings, this might be the time to play against them since they are likely swinging at pitcher’s pitches and being less selective, getting themselves out if you will.

Another factor is once a series of events has occurred, there is likely to be a reaction to them. Much of this is following detail. On April 17, the San Francisco Giants destroyed the Dodgers 9-0. Over the next seven games they total 11 runs and had a stretch of four games in the middle section where they had seven or fewer hits four times. In the last contest of the seven, they were shutout 2-0 by Brad Penny and the Cardinals, but showed signs of breaking out of slump with nine hits.

No question conventional wisdom would have suggested San Francisco would have a difficult time with Roy Halladay in town in next outing, however in the bigger picture, Jonathan Sanchez of the Giants had permitted 11 hits in 19.3 innings and Philadelphia had been outhit in all three games in Arizona. If you saw this entire view, the Giants at +135 home underdog becomes far more attractive and they won 5-1.

Another example of finding value with teams swinging the lumber was Baltimore on Tuesday night. The Orioles have the worst team in the Major’s and their most recent streak had reached five straight losses playing in Boston.

Baltimore started to show signs of coming out of this deep slumber with back to back nine hit games, though they only totaled four runs. After those two games they had 17 players hit their way on base, but lost 7-6 this past Saturday. That was three strong days hitting the baseball and they finally broke into the win column as +140 underdogs with 7-6 triumph, ripping 14 more hits.

It certainly would take a strong cup of courage, but here the O’s stood at 3-16, playing at home where they had not won a game (0-6) this season and were +155 underdogs to the Yankees.
However, weigh these elements. Baltimore was swing hot bats, they wanted to win at home against a tormenting team and despite their starter Kevin Millwood having 0-3 record, he had a 3.38 ERA going in the contest as his teammates had scored eight runs in his four starts in 2010. The Birds were outhit 9-7 by New York, but their increased patience at the dish produced six walks and the O’s were a very rewarding 5-4 winner as large ML pooch.

The other area to consider is the pitchers. This is a more complicated discussion because of the variables.

Hurlers that allow fewer hits than innings pitched and have modest walk totals are good wagers, especially with above average strikeout to walk ratios.

Starting pitchers that keep the hits down and have a history of being successful on the road are a terrific value as underdogs or small favorites. Pitching matchups also lend themselves to winning.

Any sports bettor loves an ace vs. a No. 5 starter, unfortunately that comes at a cost, namely a high money line. If the team’s No. 1 guy is backed by his club smacking the horsehide when he’s on the mound, the run line becomes more attractive option.

Better value can often be found when the No. 2 or 3 starter is facing a worst starting pitcher on the other team and as long as the presumed favorite is in good form and the better pitcher is not slumping, this too can be a smart wager.

There are many other scenarios, but one last important aspect to think about is the bullpen. Everything can be in order, yet a lousy bullpen with gruesome ERA and a vast number of blown saves can turn winners into losers quickly, be cognizant of this material.

To wrap this up, hitting the ball around the yard can lead to more winners than you thought possible. Stay current with the numbers and you can build your bankroll more rapidly.

One final bit of information from James book. When a team outhits the other by nine or more coming into this season, they are 197-0 all time.

Hoping Kate Gosselin falls on her ego on DWTS on Monday

A good quality 2-1 Sunday brings us to today and a notch NHL system arises at 82 percent. The Top Trend was a winner against yesterday and peeks in on NL West this evening. The Free Pick hasn’t been so hot of late, but Ron gives it go in the NBA. Good Luck

What I thought yesterday- How interesting it was to watch the last two innings Ubaldo Jimenez no-hitter and watch him throw out of the stretch. Good for him for swallowing his ego and doing what was right for him and the team and just “drop and drive” his way to history books.

I did think it was sort of stupid however the Rockies TV announcers didn’t say he was pitching a no-hitter, like they were being superstitious like the players about it. Kind of a reach, just report the action.

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Free Hockey System -1) Play On a favorite against the money line like Boston with a goalie having 91.5 percent or higher in the second half of the season, whose team has five straight games with 30 or more shots on goal. This winning system has lit the lamp with 41-9 record, 82 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Matt Cain and the Giants are 11-2 after a loss over the last two seasons.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Ron of the LCC is 7-2 in last nine NBA selections and sees Denver continuing to roll against Utah.

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The baseball train keeps chuggin'

The schedule might appear lighter in baseball action with just eight games on the board; however that doesn’t mean opportunity doesn’t exist. We went thru and isolated four specific MLB systems that are thought provoking and should have a well above average chance of being profitable to start another week of baseball betting. Sides and totals from DiamondSportsbook.com.

St. Louis at Arizona 9:40E

The Cardinals are already in first place in the NL Central, where they are expected to end up at the end of the season. You can’t blame St. Louis if they a trifle fatigued off 20-inning game Saturday and a tense come from behind effort 5-3 win over the New York Mets last evening.

St. Louis has left 32 men on base the last two contests (22 in the marathon) and are a -129 money line favorite in the desert against angry Arizona club that was swept by San Diego and has lost four in a row.

Here we look to Play Against road teams with a money line of -100 to -150 after two straight games where they stranded 10 or more runners on base, in the first half of the season. These teams are unsightly 12-33, 27.7 percent.

San Francisco at San Diego 10:05E

Even after losing series to the Dodgers, San Francisco maintained lead in the NL West with 8-4 record. The Giants continue their road trip further south down the California coast to San Diego.

The oddsmaker looked at the Matt Cain vs Clayton Richard matchup and studied two good bullpens and hung out an Un7 on this confrontation. With this setup, we found a 52-19 system that suggests to Play Over on road teams when the total is 7 to 8.5, after a loss, on a club with a winning percentage of 62% or better on the season.

Detroit at L.A. Angels 10:05E

Last week was not a good for Detroit, dropping two series and losing four of six games. Like many teams this time of year, the Tigers are attempting to put together a consistent bullpen and though the ERA of 3.21 appears more than adequate, too many runners are scoring in hold situations and they have surrendered 64 hits and walks (44-H, 20-W) in 42 innings, for WHIP of 1.524.

In the last three seasons, road clubs with bullpen WHIP between 1.450 to 1.550 on the year, who are a good fielding team, turning 1.1 or more double plays per game are 33-74.

Baltimore at Seattle 10:10E

There had to be a general sense of relief in Baltimore dugout as they ended their nine-game losing streak in being victorious for the just the second time this season yesterday in 8-3 triumph over Oakland.

Even with the offensive outburst, the Orioles are batting puny .234 as a team, with on-base percentage of .292, while scoring 3.2 runs per game.

Seattle’s return to the state of Washington has boosted their play, with two series victories. The pitching has been the difference and the bullpen has sharp with 3.29 ERA on the year (1.17 ERA at Safeco Park). The Mariners are a -148 money line favorite with total Ov8. Keep in mind, American League teams hitting less than .260, facing a bullpen with ERA under 3.33, on Monday’s, are 39-14 UNDER the last 13 years.

Betting Beliefs – Always or Never

The NBA and NHL seasons are rapidly coming to a close and Major League Baseball is heading into its first full weekend. Here are some hard, fast betting rules to live by. You are not going to win every time, but your bankroll with be much thicker or have larger figures than if you decided to go the other way.

ALWAYS bet against “turrible” NBA teams late in the season

Charles Barkley may have different ways of utilizing words in the English language, but Sir Charles knows a “turrible” team when he sees one. Bettors looked at the New Jersey Nets recently after they overcame the dubious NBA record for losses and even covered six games in a row. More than one bettor has been sent down the wrong path betting a team with 11 wins and being outscored by 9.3 points per game.

If it looks like dog poop, smells like dog poop, it probably is dog poop. Don’t forget to add Detroit, Minnesota and the Clippers to this list, since most of the players and coaches have already prepaid their airline luggage charges for out of town on the day the regular season ends.

ALWAYS bet on NBA teams that are streaking and playoff bound

If teams are playing solid basketball, winning and moving up the standings plus covering spreads, it makes sense to at the very least consider them on game by game basis.

The Milwaukee Bucks are 14-5 and 12-6-1 ATS since March 1. During that same time span it’s been the flight of the Phoenix in the desert, with the Suns 14-3, 10-6-1 ATS.

So much for injuries, age and nasty schedule supposedly to derail San Antonio. The Spurs are 15-5 and 14-6 ATS; with Tony Parker missing 75 percent of these games and Tim Duncan getting days off to rest weary knees. Follow the words of Grammy award winner Jerry Reed from his early 70’s hit “When you’re, you’re hot”.

NEVER bet out of boredom

If you have been betting college and professional basketball on a daily basis since early November, looking at a skimpy NBA schedule leaves much to be desired if you do not wager on baseball or want to survey the landscape first. I’ve received a couple of email from guys, “Who do you like in the NHL tonight?” or “Got any hot ones in hockey?”

If you haven’t been following hockey all season, now is not the time to start. Though every game looks like a 50-50 proposition, rest assured you are much more likely to lose than to win just guessing. Advice- play the lottery, payouts are larger, if not your odds.

ALWAYS bet underdogs in NHL series wagering

The first round of the Stanley Cup rivals anything NCAA men’s basketball tournament has to offer. In the past four years, over 37 percent of the lower seeds (12 of 32) have advanced to the conference semi-finals. In addition, three other series went the full seven games, which could have provided even more fuel to this argument. Look for hot goaltender and teams with two or three snipers as underdog wagers.

NEVER bet on -151 or more early April favorites in baseball

The baseball in April is a real crapshoot as unsuspecting teams get off to fast starts and perennial powers haven’t put everything together yet. On April 25 last season, here are the records of various MLB teams.

Toronto 13-6
Seattle 12-6
N.Y. Yankees 9-8
L.A. Angels 6-11
Florida 11-6
Philadelphia 8-8
Colorado 5-11

Last season was fairly typical of what occurs. Favorites of -151 or higher were 33-21 (61.1 percent), but were -2.84 units overall the first two weeks of the season.

NEVER bet on “up and comers” early without pedigree

This is tried and true formula in any sport. Ole Miss (8-4, 6-5 ATS regular season) and California (8-5, 6-7 ATS) were ranked in the Top 15 in preseason polls in college football last season, Georgia Tech (No. 17 in preseason polls) in college hoops this past campaign and what about Miami (7-9 8-8 ATS) and Houston (9-7, 7-8-1 ATS) in the NFL listed as likely playoff teams.

Typically a team needs to prove themselves or they come out of nowhere to be a surprise squad is how it usually happens.

Be careful with the Seattle Mariners and even the San Francisco Giants, until they show they can win consistently to be counted as “play on” teams.

NEVER bet against Pamela Anderson

Though the blonde bombshell is adding up in years and might be 20-1 to win Dancing with the Stars, she always finds a way to get herself in the news or on TV.

Baseball Series Wagering - Bravos and Giants

Both the Braves and Giants showed considerable improvement in 2009 and both hope to be able to continue that momentum into a new season, leading to postseason baseball.

The series opener is a game of firsts for both squads. This is the home opener for San Francisco who swept Houston in their building and this the first road game of a new campaign for Atlanta who won series over Chicago.

The Braves might be without one of their top sticks in the lineup as Chipper Jones strained his oblique muscle in batting practice yesterday and was forced out of the game on Thursday. Depending on the severity, he could miss one game or the entire series. That means others have to step up in his place like Brian McCann or rookie Jason Heyward for Braves club that is 29-47 on the road the last two years in the first half of the season.

The Braves welcome back Tim Hudson, who didn’t pitch until September last season after elbow surgery, but feels great and is ready for new campaign. “I feel like I had better stuff than I had before surgery,” Hudson told the Braves’ official Web site following a spring start. “It almost feels like I’m going out there and opening up a new present.” Atlanta is 8-3 when Hudson starts after scoring two runs or less and the right-hander is 1-2 with a 3.86 ERA in four career starts at AT&T Park.

Everyone expects the Giants to have great pitching again, but they scored 18 runs in taking all three games vs. Astros, which included 19 base hits in Wednesday’s finale. San Francisco was very comfortable at home last season with 52-29 record.

Jonathan Sanchez will try to provide manager Bruce Boche with a fourth straight strong performance from the San Fran starters, which limited the Astros to three earned runs and 13 hits in 19 2/3 innings. Sanchez is entrenched in Giants lore, throwing no-hitter last season, the first in 33-years for San Francisco. He has classic three-quarters lefty delivery with low 90’s fastball and sweeping curveball. He’s improved his split pitch that he can fade down and away from right-hand batters.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Atlanta as -110 money line favorite with total Un8 for this afternoon opener. The Braves ended last season winning 21 of last 28 road contests and is 9-3-1 UNDER in game one of series. The Giants are in potentially negative spot, with 9-23 record with Sanchez as underdog starter and they were 15-5-3 OVER as home pooch.

Game 1 Edge: San Francisco

The early part of the schedule is perfect time for manager’s to get their whole roster involved. The Braves website is suggesting that could be true. Catcher McCann is expected to be off in the series afternoon opener after catching a night game. McCann should be back in the batting order on Saturday. Fourth outfielder Matt Diaz is presumed to play in at least one game and Omar Infante is expected to fit in somewhere in the infield.

There has been conflicting reports about who the game two starter will be, however Derek Lowe is on normal rest, thus he’s expected to take the mound. Lowe allowed five earned runs in six innings against Chicago on Opening Day and didn’t look completely at ease with the changes he’s made in delivery to get more sink on his pitches. The Braves won Lowe’s last four road starts in 2009 and he’s 4-1 with a 2.13 ERA in his last nine starts against the Giants.

San Francisco is expected to counter with fifth start Todd Wellemeyer, who made the club as a non-roster invitee, beating out a couple of top prospects for the job, at least for now. The 31-year old righty was cut loose by St. Louis after 7-10 season (5.89 ERA), which saw him surrender 160 hits in 122 1/3 innings, including 19 that went over the fence. Expect Atlanta to load up with left-handed bats since that is really a troublesome area for Wellemeyer. Possibly the Giants can hit their way to a victory and they are 6-2 at home against right-hand starters to begin the series.

Game 2 Edge: Atlanta

Tim Lincecum is expected to close the series for Giants in afternoon action and was dazzling in his initial start of the season. The two-time Cy Young winner looked intent on a third, hurling seven shutout innings, conceding four hits –all singles, fanning seven Houston batters and walking none. He will look to master the Braves lineup and is 5-1 with a 2.72 ERA in six career starts against the Atlanta.

Bobby Cox could counter Lincecum with Kenshin Kawakami, his fifth starter. The Japanese right-hander was 7-12 with 3.86 ERA last season and earned the nickname “Dragonslayer” in out-pitching Roy Halladay and Ervin Santana last year for wins. He’ll have his chance to enhance that image against San Fran’s ace, being you typical Far East pitcher with array of fastballs, late-breaking sliders and downward curveballs, unafraid to throw any or all pitches on any count. Kawakami will get smoked if he throws the ball over the plate.

Game 3 Edge: San Francisco

The key to the series is first game, as the latter two contests have team aces up against No. 5 starters. Both bullpens have been sharp to start the year so not much difference there. For this series we’ll give the nod to the Giants because of history in the Bay Area. San Francisco has won four in a row over Atlanta and seven of eight at AT&T Park.

DiamondSportsbook.com series odds: Atlanta Even, San Francisco -130

3Daily Winners Pick: San Francisco

Now to Baseball's Real Opening Day

The made for TV part of the beginning of the baseball season was last night, today we move ahead to the 13 parks stuffed with fans, the aroma of people grilling a collection of wonder foods and everyone is in good mood because baseball is back. This is yet another sign that warmer weather and outdoor activities are on the way and the local nine has yet to disappoint one person, plus the activity of watching scores from out-of-town ads to the experience. Let the romance begin with five nationally televised games.

St. Louis at Cincinnati 1:10E ESPN

No better place to start baseball than in Cincinnati, the first professional baseball team that started way back in 1869, then known as Red Stockings. While no one expects this Cincinnati team to start the way their predecessor did (the Red Stockings won 130 consecutive games from 1969-70), the Reds have good young talent with the likes of Brandon Phillips, Joey Votto and Jay Bruce.

Aaron Harang makes his fifth consecutive Opening Day start and believes he’s made enough mechanical tweaks to fix what has caused him to lose 31 total games the two years. Harang is 7-10 with 4.54 ERA against St. Louis.

The Cardinals are favorites to win the NL Central, with the best hitter in baseball in Albert Pujols, now backed with coverage for the entire season by Matt Holiday. St. Louis also has arguably the best pitcher in the National League in Cris Carpenter who gets the start. The Cy Young runner-up last year is also making his fifth start in an opener and is 7-3 with low 2.11 ERA against the Reds.

DiamondSportsbook.com has the Cards as -150 money line favorites, with total Un7.5. Carpenter is 39-22 in road games in the first half of the season in his career. This is the first time these two teams have squared off in game one of a new season since 1994.

Cleveland at Chicago White Sox 2:05E ESPN2

The Indians are being picked last in the AL Central by many baseball experts. That doesn’t mean the Indians are devoid of talent with CF Grady Sizemore, DH Travis Hafner, Shin-Soo Choo, SS Asdrubal Cabrera and players dripping with potential in Matt LaPorta and outfielder Michael Brantley. Pitching is the big concern in Cleveland and Jake Westbrook is the game one starter for the first time is five seasons. The Tribe is +160 money line road underdog with total at Un9 and Westbrook is 11-28 on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5. (Team's Record)

The White Sox open 2010 more athletic and presumably better defensively. They also have four very good starting pitchers which is why they should be competing for the division title. One of them is Mark Buehrle, making his franchise-record eighth Opening Day start, previously shared with Billy Pierce. The left-hander threw a perfect game last season and set a Major League record of 45 straight batters retired. Beuhrle is 76-46 all-time at U.S. Cellular Field and is 82-41 as a favorite of -125 to -175. (White Sox Record)

Chicago Cubs at Atlanta 4:10E ESPN

The Cubs and Braves enter 2010 with buoyed enthusiasm. Chicago got rid of clubhouse cancer Milton Bradley and added Marlon Byrd and Xavier Nady to their outfield mix, looking for more production. Manager Lou Pinella is hoping the injury bug stays away and that a 15 pounds lighter Carlos Zambrano can rebound from off year. Chicago is a +120 road dog and was undesirable 8-27 as an underdog of +100 to +150 last season, however Cubs fans could be mildly optimistic since Big Z is 41-20 as visitor when the total is 8.5 to 10. (Cubs Record)

Atlanta made bullpen modifications they believe will lead to more victories in skipper Bobby Cox swan song season. The venerable Cox likes his starting pitching and is excited about 20-year-old phenom Jason Heyward who brings power and speed to the Braves. Atlanta is 93-57 UNDER in the first half of the season over the last two seasons and Derek Lowe will be the Braves first hurler to toe the rubber.

San Francisco at Houston 7:05E ESPN2

The Giants look to take the next step after startling 88-win campaign and be in the hunt for division crown. Having back to back Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum is a wonderful place to start and the front office thinks Mark DeRosa and Aubrey Huff will help the offense generate more runs, after averaging only 4.1 per game in 2009.

The best news out of Houston is new manager Brad Mills is earning glowing praise with his positive energy, however not one game has mattered yet. The pitching staff has been bolstered with Brandon Lyon, Brett Myers and Matt Lindstrom. Unfortunately, Lance Berkman begins the year on the DL. The Astros will have Roy Oswalt making his eighth consecutive Opening Day start, but his club is 2-5 in those contests despite a solid 3.35 from the right-hander, whose been nursing a sore left hamstring.

Houston is a +120 money line home underdog with total Un7, nonetheless the ‘Stros won all eight of Oswalt’s assignments against the NL West last season. San Francisco has to be considered dangerous anyways, with 40-22 mark when a -150 favorite or less and Lincecum is 2-0 with 1.67 ERA vs. Houston.

Minnesota at L.A. Angels 10:05E ESPN2

Only one game features division champions on Opening Day and that is in Anaheim with Minnesota beginning with the Angels. These two squads are different than a season ago, one presumably for the better and the other to be determined.

The Twins have a new combination up the middle with shortstop J.J. Hardy and 2B Orlando Hudson and Jim Thome returns to the AL Central as DH for Minnesota. Scott Baker is off a 15-win season, reestablishing himself as the masthead of the staff and he earns the Twins opening start. Baker is 0-4 in six starts in Anaheim with 5.59 ERA. The late innings will look a lot different for Minnesota fans with Joe Nathan gone for the year, setting up bullpen by committee with Matt Guerrier, Jose Mijares, Jon Rauch and Jesse Crain.

The Angels suffered some real blows in losing John Lackey, Vladimir Guerrero and Chone Figgins to other American League clubs and look to pick up the prices adding Joel Pineiro, Hideki Matsui and Brandon Wood in their places. The new lead-dog for the Halos is Jered Weaver, who is a laid-back Cali type, a far cry from Lackey’s bulldog tendencies. Nevertheless, Weaver is 27-12 at the Big A and big reason why the Angles are -130 money line choice with total listed at Ov7. The Twins were 27-11 UNDER in the in the first half of the last season.

Thursday Night Action

Finally! Nailed down a pair of winners, so let’s go for the whole enchilada today and sweep the board. The Best System involves tonight’s NFL matchup at 80 percent. The Top Trend is perfect 13-0 on the ice this evening and Marty looks to continue Hot streak in college football. Good Luck

New Poll Question at bottom of the page

What I learned yesterday – Brandon Jennings of the Milwaukee Bucks looks like a very good rookie. He has weakness, but what first year player wouldn’t. Definitely impressed.

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Free Football System-1) PLAY ON favorites like San Fran when playing on a Thursday. (24-6 ATS, L5Y)

Free Hockey Trend-2) The Boston Bruins are 13-0 when playing against a team with win percentage of 25 to 40 percent in the first half of the season over the last two years.

Free Football Pick -3) Marty of the LCC has hit 10 of last 11 CFB plays and is on Rutgers.

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NFL Week 5's Big Games

Of the various boggle the brain teams, Cincinnati has to be right at the top, as they are one beyond belief tipped pass away from being 4-0 this season. The Bengals play their third straight AFC North conflict and could wrestle first place away from Baltimore with the upset. What is wrong with the Cowboys that a trip to Kansas City wouldn’t fix? Atlanta and San Francisco tries to prove which team truly is on the rise in 2009. After a sluggish start, Arizona is back from a bye looking at Houston team that is similar to their club from a year ago. It’s another big test for unbeaten Denver with New England in the Mile High City.

Cincinnati at Baltimore 1:00E CBS

Who would’ve thought this just over a month ago?…Cincinnati (2-2 ATS, 3-1 Ov) and Baltimore (3-1 ATS, 3-1 Ov) will be battling for the AFC North lead when they clash in Week 5. The Bengals have been one of the league’s pleasant surprises, boasting a 3-1 record, same as the Ravens. In fact, take away the tipped ball miracle play in Week 1 and Cincy is unbeaten right now with wins over Green Bay and Pittsburgh on its resume. Here, they’ll be looking to up their record in Baltimore to 4-3 under Marvin Lewis and win their third ATS win in four tries vs. a division foe. The Ravens are 9-1 ATS as a favorite under John Harbaugh and 6-2 ATS versus AFC North opponents, but are off the humbling setback in New England. Favorites in this series are on a 14-5 SU and ATS run.

Keys to the Game-

The Bengals have to catch some Flac, as in sack Joe Flacco to limit the Baltimore passing game. Keep DE Antwan Odom’s motor on high and have him keep after Flacco. Against the run, gap control is mandatory or the Ravens will run the ball down Cincy’s throat for four quarters. Cincinnati 10-1-1 ATS after playing Cleveland and it will be Carson Palmer’s job all day to read S Ed Reed’s keys and change plays off of his actions.

In Ravens loss to New England, too often various members of the secondary took bad angles, which led to poor tackling. This can’t happen against Chad Ochocinco and the dangerous Chris Henry, who is nightmare matchup for any team’s third cornerback. Baltimore has stopped Cincinnati’s straight ahead running game for years, but Cedric Benson has the speed to get wide and Brian Leonard is solid as one-cut-and-go runs. The Ravens have NFL’s top run defense, however Bengals aren’t pushovers anymore at 4.5 yards per carry. The Birds are 12-3 ATS in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points.

3DW Line – Baltimore by 12

DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Baltimore -8.5, 42.

Dallas at Kansas City 1:00E FOX

After losing at Denver, Dallas (2-2 SU&ATS) continues its two week road trip through the AFC West with a trip to Kansas City. The Cowboys record as a road favorite dropped to 10-3 SU & 7-6 ATS under Wade Phillips by losing to the Broncos, but more importantly, they lost another game in the NFC East standings. They’ll enjoy next Sunday off, important since Dallas is on a run of 9-2 ATS in pre-bye week games. Kansas City (0-4 SU&ATS) is playing its second straight as host to an NFC East club, after coming up short 27-16 against the Giants. With that spread loss, the Chiefs fell to 1-4 SU & 1-3-1 ATS in their last five at home vs. NFC opponents. The Cowboys have only visited Arrowhead Stadium once in the last 18 years (’98) and the home team is 4-0 SU & 2-0-2 ATS in the last four games of this series.

Keys to the Game-

Without Terrell Owens, teams no longer fear the Dallas deep passing attack. Roy Williams (who might not play) is a poor route runner as are many of the Cowboys receivers. Tony Romo isn’t always the most accurate passer and needs help from pass catchers to get more open and hang onto the ball. Dallas is 4-15 ATS as a road favorite of 7.5 to 10 points and defensively needs to shutdown the Chiefs on first down, which sets up bring the house on third down. The Dallas pass rush has been anemic, but with K.C. 29th in pass offense, great time for the Boys to get happy.

Dallas is third in rushing yards at 163.7 yards per game, which would leave Kansas City with fewer possessions if they let them play keep away. Stop the Cowboys and look to discourage them since they allow 4.7 yards per attempt. The Chiefs are not making any big plays and have to in all three phases to pull the upset. A couple of big passing plays, an interception or fumble recovery and a long punt return gives the Chiefs a chance since they are 7-0 ATS after allowing 25 points or more in two straight games. Lastly, score touchdowns in the red zone and concede field goals in the same area, which would different this season.

3DWLine – Dallas by 8
Bookmaker.com Line – Dallas -7.5, 43.5

Atlanta at San Francisco 4:05E FOX

When Atlanta (2-1 ATS, 2-1Un) left the NFC West Division in 2002, it meant making fewer trips to San Francisco. That was welcomed news since the Falcons have struggled when visiting the Bay Area, and in fact, are just 1-10 SU & 3-8 ATS in their last 11 adventures when visiting the 49ers. That one win came in the most recent trip though, in 2004, and now looks to make it two in row. Atlanta comes in at 2-1 and off its bye week, but the next seven games will make or break its chances for a second straight playoff appearance. San Francisco (4-0 ATS, 3-1Un) is 3-1 after shutting out St. Louis and very well could be 4-0. The 49ers seem to be restoring some long lost home field advantage, having gone 5-0 SU & 4-0-1 ATS under Mike Singletary. Atlanta is 9-0-2 UNDER the total in post-bye week games since 1999.

Keys to the Game-

Atlanta has done a poor job against the run (25th) and has to shore up this area up against San Francisco who prefers to establish a ground game. Defensive tackles Trey Lewis and Thomas Johnson must be more stout in the A and B gaps and at least won’t have to fret about Frank Gore, who is out. The Falcons are 14-4 ATS after allowing 400 or more total yards in consecutive games. Atlanta brought in Tony Gonzalez to open up the passing game, but it shouldn’t be at the expense of Roddy White, who’s averaging only eight yards a catch. White is deep threat and home run hitter, use him.

San Francisco only manufactured 228 yards of offense in scoring 35 points last week against the Rams, thanks to three defensive scores. The lack of offensive punch is due to supposedly strong offensive line looking and acting worse than Jon Gosselin. This contingent needs to come together and start exploding off the ball and Birds D-Line is custom made to so. The defense is sixth overall and would be wise to take away Gonzalez and make Matt Ryan go after their excellent corners. The Niners are 6-0 ATS at Candlestick Park after covering the number.

3DWLine – San Francisco by 5.5
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – San Francisco -2.5, 40.5

Houston at Arizona 4:15E CBS

Two high-powered passing attacks, Houston & Arizona, will go head-to-head in what is expected to be a game featuring plenty of offensive fireworks. That should showcase the talents of the Cardinals’ Larry Fitzgerald and the Texans’ Andre Johnson. Both are big, strong receivers with excellent hands. The Cards have tended to come out of bye weeks not so chipper and are 11-3 UNDER in post-bye week games since 1994. The defending NFC champion Cardinals (1-2 ATS&UNDER) took last week off to find answers for their slow 1-2 start. The good news is they are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. teams passing for more than 7.0 yards per attempt. Houston (2-2 ATS) has averaged 7.7 YPA in its 2-2 start, and comes in on a 7-1 ATS surge as an underdog. The Texans are 5-9 ATS when visiting NFC foes. This will be just the second time these teams have met, and the first time in Arizona.

Keys to the Game –

Houston is 29th against the run and if they can’t stop Tim Hightower and Beanie Wells (3.2 YPC), they have no business in talking about playoff possibilities. The Texans have been blitzing a lot, yet have only five sacks to show for their efforts. Kurt Warner is a top five quarterbacks with protection, however in the bottom 25 percent when pressured. Houston is 4-14 ATS as road underdog off a conquest and they will add one more to the right side of the ledger unless they get Steve Slaton started (Texans 3.2 YPC). Run screens, quicker hitting plays, whatever it takes, since Matt Schaub’s effectiveness shrinks without running game.

Knock, knock. Who’s there? The 2009 season! Arizona players and coaches said they were unaffected by Super Bowl loss, yet based on actions; they appear to be less than truthful. Start with protecting Kurt Warner. Yes, he’s going to hang on the ball too long, this isn’t news to those wearing Cardinal red. Give him time to make the throws. Coach Ken Whisenhunt is calling the plays, hey a coach, your receivers are REALLY good, throw them the ball. Arizona is 16-5 ATS in home games versus mediocre defensive teams allowing 5.65 or more yards a play, punish them. On defense, the Redbirds can stop the run, they have to protect against the big pass play.

3DWLine - Arizona by 1
Bookmaker.com Line – Arizona -5.5, 50

New England at Denver 4:15E CBS

There will be plenty of hype surrounding the New England-Denver showdown, for more than the coaching matchup, as Bill Belichick takes on his former offensive coordinator, Josh McDaniels. Surprisingly, it is McDaniels that is receiving more accolades, with his team atop the AFC West. With a 4-0 SU & ATS record and the NFL’s best defense at 6.5 points per game allowed, the Broncos continue a treacherous eight-game stretch as three-point home dogs to the 3-1 Patriots. Belichick’s club is seemingly regaining its footing as QB Tom Brady becomes more comfortable. New England (2-2 ATS) boasts a 25-5 SU & 21-7 ATS record as road chalk of less than a touchdown in the Belichick era. The last seven games these teams have played in Denver have averaged 48 points per contest, while going OVER the total six times.

Keys to the Game-

It must be the altitude, because New England is 3-10 ATS in Denver. The loss of Fred Taylor means Laurence Maroney better get his game together quickly, since the Patriots need offensive balance against the No. 3 pass defense. The Pats showed great improvement last week in the red zone, converting touchdowns instead of settling for field goals, that must continue. This had to be a cerebral week of practice for the New England offense, since McDaniel is the one that set it up. The Brady bunch has to use false keys and give new looks to the same plays to confuse Denver D. New England is 7-1 ATS off consecutive covers.

The Broncos defense is the most important aspect of quick start and they have the secondary that can allow Denver to blitz Brady, much in the fashion the Jets did in holding the Patriots to nine points. New England shows up at eighth in total defense, but they are surrendering 4.5 yards per carry. The Denver’s offensive line is good enough to tie up Pats D-Line, and a set of ordinary linebackers will get caught in the scrum. See if the Pats can really contain the run. The Broncos can reverse trend of 4-12 ATS record off a home game by making big plays like last week. Look for Brandon Marshall and get the ball to Eddie Royal short to restore his confidence.

3DW Line – Denver by 1
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – New England -3, 41

Pick up the pieces Friday

We got whacked but good with 0-3 day on Thursday. We hope to make a much better showing today. Mark of the Left Coast Connection is stepping it up on Free Play, continue reading. The Top Trend in unbeaten in the NFL tonight and the Best System is only qualifying play over 80 percent and it makes me nervous with John Smoltz pitching. Good Luck

Don’t get mad, get even - Javier Vazquez got a win on Thursday, evening his career won-lost record at 138-138. It's the 27th time in his career that Vazquez's won-lost record has stood at .500. The only other active pitcher whose career record has been at .500 as often as Vazquez, is Doug Davis. (31 times) Thanks Elias

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Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST road teams like Washington with average NL offensive, scoring 4.3 to 4.8 runs a game, against a mediocre starting pitcher (ERA of 5.70 or higher), with an unproductive bullpen whose ERA is 5.00 or worse on the season. This system is 4-0 this season to take it past the 80 percent threshold at 36-8.

Free Football Trend -2) The Arizona Cardinals are 9-0 ATS if off a SU loss and opponent is off double digit win.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Mark of the LCC is making his largest wager of the baseball season on the San Francisco Giants. (Good Luck Mark)

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StatFox Top Tips – The Platinum Sheet – Yours truly a writer.

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MLB Series Wagering- Rockies at Giants

It may not be “How the West was won” but for San Francisco, it’s a critical weekend to get back into the wild card race in the National League. With 34 games remaining, the Giants trail Colorado by three games for the last playoff spot in the senior circuit. Last week San Francisco (69-59, +10 units) lost three of four near the foothills of the Rocky Mountains and cannot afford a similar fate or postseason dreams could be washed out to sea by the Bay.

Manager Bruce Boche has the pitching aligned exactly how he wants it to give San Francisco its best chance of winning. In order, its Tim Lincecum, Barry Zito and Matt Cain, this at least sounds daunting for Colorado. Lincecum (12-4, 2.43 ERA) lost last Sunday at Colorado 4-2, giving up room service pitch for home run and walking a season high five batters. Last year’s Cy Young winner is 4-0 with a sterling 1.36 ERA at AT&T Park in his last six outings and the Giants are 8-3 when the right-hander is pitching on four days rest.

Colorado (72-56, +12.6 units) has to quickly put behind the disappointment of losing series to front-running Los Angeles and refocus on the task at hand. The Rockies are 17-9 in August road games the last couple of years and have what they believe is the right pitcher to combat Lincecum in Ubaldo Jimenez (12-9, 3.36). The righthander has pitched a minimum of eight innings in four of his last five starts, not allowing more than two runs and winning each game. He relishes the challenge of facing “The Freak”.

“I love challenges," Jimenez said. "I'm positive when I have a challenge. I can't wait to be in that position. Hopefully, everything's going to be OK this time." Jimenez has made nine straight starts allowing three or fewer runs and Colorado is 21-6 on the road against a right-hand starter.

DiamondSportsbook.com has the Giants as -125 money line favorites, with the total Un6.5. San Fran is 8-2 when Lincecum pitches as a favorite and has won 41 of last 58 in favorite role. The Rockies have won just one of last seven as an underdog and are 7-20 when Jimenez is pitching as road dog and 1-5 if the opponent has winning record.

Game 1 Edge: San Francisco

San Francisco knew coming into the season, they would have to build this team around pitching and defense and the front office has been prophetic. The Giants are 14th in the National League scoring runs, a paltry four runs per game. Nobody knows this better than Barry Zito (8-11, 4.09). Though Zito has been criticized and dismissed as a non-talent more than Heidi Montag, this season Zito has looked like the pitcher the Giants spent 126 million for several seasons ago. In his last eight starts, the lefty has ERA of 2.08, yet is just 3-2, as he has received the poorest run support in the NL at just under three runs a game. Zito made a decision to stop worrying about avoiding bats and instead has gone after hitters, which has paid dividends for a pitcher needing confidence. The Giants have won five of his last six starts at home.

Colorado counters with Jason Marquis (14-8, 3.47), making this a rematch from Monday, when neither starting pitcher figured in decision. Marquis has ended being a key acquisition for the Rockies, pitching well when they were still trying to settle in and rock solid once they turned the corner playing outstanding baseball. Colorado comes into the series 52-25 in last 77 outings and they are 8-2 when Marquis faces a club with winning record.

Game 2 Edge: Colorado

As if things aren’t hard enough for San Fran, the status of their top two hitters Pablo Sandoval and Bengie Molina is day to day for this series. The Giants could certainly use them for the final game of the series, which is afternoon affair. San Francisco is 24-19 playing matinees and will have Matt Cain (12-4, 2.39) taking the ball. It easy to be judgmental and see Cain hasn’t won a game since July 24, yet he has 2.72 ERA in that span and allowed 36 hits in 46 1/3 innings, with 4-to-1 strikeout to walk ratio. The Giants are raising cane on opponents at home when Cain pitches with 11-2 record and they are 13-4 when favored. The Rockies will use Jason Hammel (8-7, 4.43) who pitches dramatically better away from Coors Field. Hammel is 6-4 on the road with 2.88 ERA, thought the team is .500 (6-6). Colorado is 25-18 in day ball and un-Rockies like 36-30 coming into the series on the road.

Game 3 Edge: San Francisco

Had my four series winning streak snapped last week, however feel good about this week’s selection. As good as Colorado has been since Jim Tracy took over as skipper, San Francisco could have just as easily won three of four last week in Denver. Sporting a National League-best 41-21 home record, the Giants are the play this weekend to close the gap in wild card race.

DiamondSportsbook.com series odds: Colorado +120, San Francisco -150

3DW Pick: San Francisco

2009 Record – 7-10

Make a mark on a Monday

Slipped a bit on Sunday with 1-2 day, as Mark Buehrle continues to struggle since throwing “Perfecto”. The LCC consensus has left a couple of winners and goes for third straight with Free Play. The Top Trend explains part of Washington’s woes (not the White House). Best System involves the best game on the NL board today and is 36-9. Good Luck

What I thought today – With the Yankees winning the series in Boston, they have shown their current superiority. New York is on pace to win about 101 games, which would mean the Red Sox would have to go 32-7 to finish the season to surpass them, very unlikely. Instead, Boston should work on holding off Texas for wild card, get everybody healthy and hopefully be playing best baseball come October and see if they can make another strong run.

Almost forgot to mention about Phillies triple play yesterday. Though triple plays don't happen often, whenever they do, I'm always reminded of Yogi Berraism which states, "Triple plays can really take out of an inning."

Now on Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150, who are poor power hitting team like San Francisco (<=0.9 HR's/game), against a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less home runs a start, with a NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 to 1.350 on the season. Since 2005, this system checks in a 36-9, 80 percent. Free Baseball Trend -2) The Washington Nat it nals are 5-28 vs. NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs a game on the season, losing by 1.7 RPG.

Free Baseball Pick -3) The Left Coast Connection has been a wise consensus the last couple of days and is 7-0 on the Seattle Mariners tonight.

New Guaranteed NFL Picks – They are cleaning up check out our packages.

StatFox Top Tips – The Platinum Sheet – Yours truly a writer.

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Two Monday Tilts Highlight MLB Schedule

With only nine wagering opportunities on the baseball beat this Monday, some games take on greater importance than others. Two games in particular standout for today, Detroit at Los Angeles Angels and the final game between San Francisco and Colorado. Here is a betting outlook at each conflict.

Tigers at Angels

With football programming taking over the mother-ship on Monday’s, baseball gets moved to the side slightly, over to ESPN2 (remember when they tried to make it sound cool by calling it “The Deuce”). For real baseball and sports fans, that should not detract from the fact that two American League division leaders matchup, with a superb pitching matchup.

Detroit (65-58, -1.2 units) is three games clear in the loss column of Chicago, thanks to its efforts at home, not on the road. The Tigers have had nothing to roar about with 25-38 road record, scoring just four runs per game, which is 25th in baseball. Detroit just lost series to appalling Oakland club and will take on team from Anaheim that loves to scoot. The Tigers are 3-14 in road games vs. good base-running teams averaging 0.85 or more stolen bases a game over the last three seasons.

Justin Verlander (13-7, 3.29 ERA) will be entrusted with limiting the Angels, having 2.70 ERA in his last eight starts and has pitched at least eight innings in four of his last six outings. The only knock on Verlander is 0-2 record with a 4.55 ERA in five starts (Tigers 1-4) against the Angels.

The Halos (74-48, +24.1 units) are six games ahead of Texas in the loss column in the AL West and will send their best pitcher to the mound in Jered Weaver (13-4, 3.89). Weaver’s been a little spotty in the second half of the season, but is off complete game road shutout at Cleveland. Weaver is 5-1 in his last nine starts, with an ERA of 5.43, however that has gone somewhat unnoticed with the Angels batters scoring 8.2 runs in that stretch. Weaver is 8-1 at the Big A this season (Halos 11-2) and his ERA is more than a full run lower at home.

DiamondSportsbook.com has the Angels as -125 money line favorites with total Un8.5, in part because how effective they have been at home against Detroit. L.A. has won eight of 10 and 27 of last 35 at home against the Tigers and are 15-5 having lost three of their last four games this season. The Angels are 10-2 OVER after seven or more consecutive road games and Verlander and the Tigers are 10-1 OVER playing on Monday’s.

The opening pitch is set for 7:05 Pacific with Detroit 17-36 in road games when playing against a team with a winning record.

San Francisco at Colorado

The Rockies (70-54, +13 units) turned a deficit into an advantage with one swing of the bat yesterday and is positioned to win three of four against their closest wild card competitor. Colorado’s Seth Smith homered a hanging changeup from Tim Lincecum, giving the Rockies the lead and they went on to win 4-2. Colorado is now three games ahead of San Francisco (67-57, +10.1 units) and would like to build on that lead before traveling to the Bay Area next week to play three at San Fran.

Colorado is 20-9 after a win by two runs or less and will send Jason Marquis (14-8, 3.58) to the mound trying to become the National League’s first 15-game winner. The Rocks will face a rejuvenated Barry Zito (8-11, 4.26), who has allowed three or less runs in his last seven starts. The left-hander has been victimized by offense that has produced a league-low 2.9 runs for a regular starting pitcher.

The Rockies are -165 money line favorites with total Un9.5. Colorado is 16-4 (+14.6 Units) against the ML playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) this season and 21-12 OVER as a home favorite of -125 to -175. San Francisco is looking for the split and is 12-6 vs. a starting pitcher who throws more than 6.5 innings per start and Zito and the Giants are 13-3 UNDER in August games since 2007.

This NL West confrontation is 5:40 Pacific start.