Saturday Specials

The Rockies scored two runs in the bottom of the eighth to blow our system play and give us a 1-2 Friday, as we look to rebound. A number of top line pitchers are scheduled to throw today and two of them have unreal records as favorites and are listed as Top Trends. Our Best System is a winner 84.1 percent of the time and Ron thinks he has another Free Winner on tap. Good Luck

3Daily Winners is No.7 in units won in MLB at Cappers Watchdog the last week.

What I saw yesterday – Kuroda of the Dodgers had nothing last night against the D-Backs, throwing 66 pitches in less than two innings. The rest of the bullpen was not much better. I just tire of watching Matt Kemp, he just doesn’t play hard. For a guy who should be approaching the prime of his career, getting benched by your manager doesn’t show a willingness to help your team.

It was just one game, but Arizona went the other way with pitches (instead of trying to pull everything like usual) and was aggressive on the base paths. I have no idea if Kirk Gibson is a good manager, but I expect he will push the Snakes to be more assertive and sit those who are not.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) Play On home favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 like Detroit, averaging 0.9 or less long balls per game on the season, after a win by six runs or more. Dating back to when the movie “Good Will Hunting” was hit, this system is 53-10.

Free Baseball Trends -2) Ubaldo Jimenez and the Rockies are 14-0 as a home favorite of -150 or more over the last two seasons and Jon Lester and Boston are 17-0 as a home favorite of -200 or more in his career.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Ron of the LLC continues to shine with 28-8 MLB record and is taking the Red Sox to pulverize the O’s on the run line.

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Hopefully more winners on the way

Let’s make today a good Saturday. We have nailed exactly 67 percent of our last 100 selections at the 3DW and let’s hunt down more winners. We’ll start with a MLB killer system that is 93.4. We have a different kind of trend; check it out, rather quirky and perfect. I’ve been going well lately, see my top play today. Good Luck

What I saw today – Justin Masterson won Friday to end his streak of winless starts at 17, which was the longest streak of winless starts in Indians history. The previous record, 15 starts, was set by Brent Strom in 1973 and tied by Rod Nichols from 1989 to 1991.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) Play Against all underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 like Baltimore, batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games, against opponent with a hot starting pitcher (Jon Lester) whose WHIP 1.000 or less over his last five starts. Since 2006 this incredible system is 57-4, 93.4 percent. For good measure, Lester is 10-0 against the Birds.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Here is a bit of a changeup, but worth noting. Umpire Todd Tichenor is behind the plate tonight in St. Louis and home teams are 11-0, winning by 3.4 runs per game when he is calling balls and strikes this season. I’m just sayin’!

Free Baseball Pick -3) I’m 31-17, +11.04 units since May 20 and like the underdog Athletics this evening.

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Red Sox and Angels do battle

As if the postseason isn’t enough motivation, the Los Angeles Angels have a score to settle. The Angels had the second best record in the American League and that accomplishment means nothings to oddsmakers. The Halos are underdogs to Boston, since in the last five years; they have one win in 10 meetings with the Red Sox in the postseason. This can’t even be described as a rivalry since the outcomes have been so one-sided.

How will this year be any different than the last three times? Los Angeles feels better equipped offensively this time around. Only the Yankees scored more runs than the Angels in baseball this season. The 5.5 runs per game and boost in power (183 home runs) gives them the belief they are less likely to be stymied like in the past, since they have averaged 2.9 runs per game in last 10 postseason conflicts.

The Angels also believe their starting pitching is every bit as good as Boston’s, maybe better. John Lackey and Jered Weaver have experience and generally pitch well at home. When they travel to Boston, Scott Kazmir and Joe Saunders will try and make life tough on Red Sox hitters, as both are throwing extremely well of late.

In theory that all sound terrific, one problem, the Angels bullpen. Though Los Angeles has a higher save percentage than Boston (73 to 69 percent), nobody is going to take the Halos pen over the BoSox. Closer Brian Fuentes just recently went under four (3.93) for his ERA for the first time this season. The Angels are 11th in bullpen ERA compared to Boston’s second place finish in the American League. According to ESPN senior editor Dave Schoenfield, only three teams since 1969 have won the World Series with a closer who had ERA greater than three.

Boston has John Papelbon (1.85 ERA) as its closer and teams that have inferior closer, but better overall record are 26-28 in the division series. The lower scoring team is 32-22 in this round and the club with the better bullpen ERA wins 58.9 percent of the time (33-23) in divisional series.

Total the numbers and you can see why the Angels are underdogs in the ALDS. For Los Angeles to win they have to score runs and HOPE the bullpen can shutdown Boston bats. If the Red Sox starters once again limit L.A. in the run column, it will be like watching the TV Land; you’ve seen this show before.


Offensive – American League
Runs scored Boston 3rd Angels 2nd
Home Runs Boston 3rd Angels 8th
Slugging Ptc. Boston 2nd Angels 4th
Walks Boston 2nd Angels 7th
On base Ptc. Boston 2nd Angels 3rd

Pitching & Defense
ERA Boston 7th Angels 9th
Bullpen ERA Boston 2nd Angels 11th
Strikeouts Boston 2nd Angels 9th
Walks Boston 6th Angels 5th
On base Ptc. Boston 8th Angels 10th
Putouts Boston 8th Angels 5th
Errors Boston 3rd Angels 4th

Key Numbers- Los Angeles won the season series 5-4, including 4-2 at the Big A. The tone of the series is likely to be set in the series opener. John Lackey is living off history as big game pitcher, having last won in his rookie season of 2002, pitching in the postseason. Lester allowed one run in 14 innings last October against the Halos and the lefty and teammates are 35-12 in the second half of the season over the last two seasons. Though several factors are in the Red Sox favor, they are desultory 3-15 in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season.

Bookmaker.com Series Odds: Red Sox -135, Angels +115

Tampa Bay not looking like a good wager

As September begins, the defending American League champions are backed into a corner. The Rays earned a road split with Detroit yesterday with 11-7 win, yet still trail Boston by five games for the wild card, with Texas a game ahead of them. This is not to say Tampa Bay isn’t capable of making a run over their next 32 games, since they still have six important encounters with the Red Sox over the next 13 days. If it were only that easy.

This is crunch time and Rays know it, opening up a three-game series with the Red Sox. “I don’t know if it gets any bigger,” Evan Longoria said of the upcoming series. “…. It should be fun.” Even when Tampa Bay was the American League doormat they gave Boston trouble and it has continued into this season. The Rays have won eight of 12 against Boston and are 18-10 at Tropicana Field versus the BoSox.

Many wondered how the Tampa Bay front office could have moved the team’s all-time wins leader is Scott Kazmir, while still in the thick of chasing post-season berth. Tampa Bay has had an unusual situation and has tricky economic picture to consider.

After years of being one of the sickest and poorly run franchises in baseball, Tampa Rays invested in farm system. They have assembled some of the best young talent in the game; unfortunately, baseball isn’t just played on the field.

Last year’s World Series run has not led to a huge bump in attendance, ranking 22nd at 24,168 per game, which is behind Baltimore, San Diego and Arizona, whose seasons were over long ago. In fact they draw 4,000 more per game on the road than at home. The Rays lack a substantial season ticket base, strong corporate presence and potential for substantial ballpark revenues. The end result is Tampa Bay has to win to try and draw while always keeping an eye on the money matters.

With Kazmir gone, Andy Sonnanstine (6-7, 6.61 ERA) has been recalled from Triple-A. The right-hander gets the call since he is 2-0 with 0.96 ERA in last three starts against Boston. Bookmaker.com oddsmakers are not impressed with Sonnanstine or the fact the Rays are 57-23 at home playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons. They have made the Red Sox -155 money line road favorites, with the total Un9.

Jon Lester (10-7, 3.60) will be charge of stopping Joe Maddon’s club. The Red Sox are 14-3 in road games vs. an AL starting pitcher like Sonnanstine, whose WHIP is 1.500 to 1.600 and is 12-2 with a day off. The rub is Lester is 0-2 with an 8.22 ERA in three starts in 2009 vs. the former Devil Rays, with Boston losing all of them. While it is true the Red Sox are 11-0 after seven or more consecutive home games this season, you can’t overlook the fact they are 1-11 when playing against a team with a win percentage between 54 to 62 percent in the second half of this year.

Longoria and teammates are 15-3 UNDER as a home underdog of +100 or higher over the last two seasons, while Boston is 14-3 UNDER in road games vs. good power teams, averaging 1.25 or more home runs a game in the second half of the season.

While manager Terry Francona laments about trip to -The Trop-, “Those cowbells stay with you for about a week.” at least his club is still in better position and doesn’t have the Rays upcoming schedule.

Tampa Bay plays host to Boston and division leading Detroit this week before heading on the road next for trips the Yankees and Boston.

First pitch tonight is set for 7:08 Eastern on NESN and Sun networks.

MLB Series Betting- Red Sox at Blue Jays

The heavy sigh emitting out of the Toronto Blue Jays clubhouse is one of relief. Though everything is far from perfect, it’s nice to be home after a road trip that was as bad as it gets. On May 19, Toronto embarked on nine-game road trip, with 3 1/2 game lead in the AL East. After visits to Boston, Atlanta and Baltimore, the Blue Jays limped home 0-9 and in third place. The offense deserves most of the blame scoring 13 runs in first eight games. When the bats finally awoke, the bullpen couldn’t hold a five-run lead in the eighth inning in Baltimore and blew a two-run lead in extra innings in the same game. Manager Cito Gaston was relieved his club was off on Thursday, "I think it's going to be a welcome thing for all of us to get away from the game for a day and come back and pick up on Friday," said Gaston.

Boston earned a split in Minnesota, with 3-1 afternoon victory Thursday, to start 10-game road trip 2-2. "(Playing) .500 baseball on the road is pretty good," Jeff Bailey said. "If you can get above of that, it's excellent. It's a good thing -- especially coming off two straight losses -- to get that win." This allowed Boston to have half-game lead over New York for first place in the AL East.

The Red Sox have had their problems are artificial turf and are 11-23 on the fake stuff the last couple of years. Toronto is ninth in on-base percentage with .353 average and Boston is 18-4 vs. an AL team with an on base percentage of .345 or better this season. The Red Sox will start Tim Wakefield (6-2, 3.99) in the opener, who is 17-11 lifetime against the Jays with 3.68 ERA. DiamondSportsbook.com has Boston and their knuckle-baller as -114 money line favorites, with a total of Un10 and they are 16-7 OVER as a favorite of -110 or higher since last season.

Toronto counters with Casey Janssen (0-1, 4.50 ERA), who started six days ago and had a solid game, which was his first big league outing since 2007. He pitched six innings and allowed three runs after returning from torn labrum he suffered to pitching shoulder in March 2008. The Jays are 20-7 in home games after allowing eight runs or more, which they did in 12-10 loss to Orioles two days ago.

Game 1 Edge: Boston

This will be the first game of the day on Saturday, with just after 1:00 Eastern start and Toronto has won 11 of last 15 games on this day of the week. The Blue Jays coming into the series being one the best home team’s in baseball with 16-6 record, picking up +8 units of profit. Toronto has also enjoyed playing in the daytime with 14-5 record. They will start Brian Tallet (2-3, 4.31), who is a career reliever, forced into action with depleted starting staff. He’s pitched well in seven of eight starts and the left-hander has been much tough on right-hand batters who are hitting only .190 against him (lefty’s .270). He’s also pitched much better at the Rogers Centre with 2.66 ERA.

Brad Penny (5-1, 5.96) has a very good record, which doesn’t explain how poorly he has pitched, with ERA more indicative of efforts, coupled with a great deal of luck. In Penny’s nine starts, Boston batters have averaged 6.4 runs per game. He could be the beneficiary of more run support with the BoSox 10-3 versus left-hand starters.

Game 2 Edge: Boston

The series concludes with a battle of young port-siders going head to head. Boston’s Jon Lester (3-5, 6.07) has been a disappointment, continually finding too much of the plate and getting the ball up, as teams are hitting .307 against him this season. His ERA is over seven on the road, though he is 2-2 with a 3.52 ERA in six career starts against the Blue Jays. Ricky Romero (2-1, 3.08) is the Toronto hurler and the 24-year old is known as more of ground ball pitcher. In 26 1/3 innings, he has better than 3-to-1 strikeout to walk ratio. Like most young pitchers, he throws much better at home, with 1.38 ERA. Romero generates fastball in the low-90’s, with a good curve. He’ll have to keep his wits about him, since the Red Sox come north of the border 10-3 OVER against lefties on the road.

Game 3 Edge: Toronto

Everything would seem to favor Boston in this series, having better pitchers facing a slumping team. The Red Sox pitchers haven’t exactly performed well and the Toronto pitchers have been much more effective on home turf. These teams have split last 18 contests at the Rogers Centre, thus expect a hotly-contested series, especially with Blue Jays having been swept. In the end, the Red Sox record against left-hander starters and having better bullpen make the difference.

DiamondSportsbook.com series odds: Boston -125, Toronto -105

3DW Edge Pick: Boston

2009 Record – 2-4

MLB Series Wagering- Yankees at Red Sox

Just the words -Yankees and Red Sox- bring a strong passion for every baseball fan. Oh sure, we all know ESPN and Fox are biased towards covering these teams, but why shouldn’t they be. In today’s world of fighting for every position and yielding no quarter, New York and Boston are like Coke and Pepsi competing for your attention. Think about it, what rivalry in sports is acted out in the national media 12 months a year? They compete strenuously during the regular season and on occasion in the playoffs. After one has potentially gained the slightest edge on the other, they compete for free agents and try to make newsworthy splash in trade to out-do one another. These two teams and organizations exemplify the very word, competition.

What also makes this rivalry great is how the teams approach each series. This weekend starts the first of 18 meetings between these AL East combatants and even though the score isn’t always close, a compelling tale emerges from each contest. Over the last seven regular seasons, New York leads 68-63 overall. The widest margin has been 11-8 in any given year, with 10-9 occurring three times and one split. Of course New York fans will tell anybody that will listen; their team has won five of last seven series.

All the players also know it’s just not another series and guys like Mark Teixeira will feel the wrath of Boston fans, after shunning Boston’s advances, to wear the pinstripes. Both teams start the weekend tied for second place in the division behind Toronto. The Red Sox are the hotter team having won seven in a row and they are 43-15 (+20.8 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams allowing 5.2 or more runs a game like New York who is sorting out bullpen and a few spots in the starting rotation. They will have Jon Lester (1-2, 5.50 ERA) take the ball first. The left-hander fired seven shutout innings in last outing after a pair of shaky performances to start the year. Boston is a -135 money line favorite at most sportsbooks, with total Un9.5. Lester and BoSox are 21-4 at Fenway Park the last three seasons.

Joba Chamberlain (0-0, 5.06 ERA) has a pair of no-decisions, pitching well against Kansas City and was wild against Cleveland. Chamberlain has similar stuff to Lester, with mid-90s fastball and sharp slider and the Yanks are 9-4 when he starts for them.

Game 1 Edge: Red Sox

The second meeting will be a Fox afternoon affair, with a couple of old Florida teammates from 2003 World Series champion doing battle. The Yankees coming into the series had won three in a row and five of seven and trot out one of their high-priced acquisitions, A.J. Burnett (2-0, 3.20). After two crisp outings, Burnett was wild against Cleveland walking seven, however permitted just three runs in 6 1/3 innings. The right-hander hopes to benefit from Robinson Cano’s hot bat, which included 10-game hitting streak arriving in Bean-town. Burnett has enjoyed much success against Boston with 5-0 record and 2.56 ERA in eight career starts. Josh Beckett’s (2-1, 3.79) suspension moved him back one game. The Texas native has kept the ball in the yard, not allowing a home run and opponents are batting just .229 against his servings and he is 7-4 with a 5.33 ERA versus the Bronx Bombers. Both teams have performed well in Game 2 situations with New York 20-8 and Boston 17-8 when Beckett is starter.

Game 2 Edge: Yankees

To complete the series, it’s something old and something new, as 37-year old Andy Pettitte (2-0, 2.53) faces 24-year Juston Masterson (1-0, 3.18). Pettitte has not only given the Yankees wins, but saved the bullpen in his three starts, going at least seven innings each time in 2009. The cagy lefty has spotted his two-seam fastball expertly and his cutter has been almost un-hittable. After starting in the bullpen, the 6’6 Masterson made adjustment to starter Monday, picking up first win with 5 1/3 effective innings. He’s been very sharp with control, ringing up 10 strikeouts and three walks. In his brief career, opposing batters are hitting measly .221 against Masterson, while Pettitte is 6-2 in 13 career starts at Fenway.

Game 3 Edge: Yankees

These rivals have split last 18 contests the last two years in Boston with OVER 12-6. If the games continue to be played Over the total, this should favor Boston who has 2.49 bullpen ERA, compared to New York’s unsightly 6.00. Yet, this is still the Yankees and Red Sox, which suggests anything is possible, thus I’ll side with underdog New York whom I believe has better pitching matchup in last two games to win the series.

Betjamaica.com series odds: N.Y. Yankees +125, Boston -155

3DW Pick: Yankees

2009 Record – 1-1