Four Conference titles on the line Monday night

Tonight, the soon to be assembled field of 65 for the NCAA Tournament will add four more teams with automatic bids, as four conferences will play their championship games in televised tilts. While some of these teams don’t register immediately for the common fan, the sharp sports bettor has a vast knowledge of all eight competing teams and will want to take notes of the winner of each championship and determine if they any chance of pulling a first round upset, if so designated.

West Coast Championship 9:00E ESPN

The most recognizable squad playing tonight is Gonzaga (26-5, 15-10-2 ATS). The Bulldogs are going to the Big Dance regardless of the outcome this evening and are making their 12 consecutive appearance in the WCC championship, attempting to knock down their 10th title in that span. Gonzaga has three very good players, all with NBA-type ability. Matt Bouldin and Duke’s Jon Scheyer are the most complete guards in the country, able to score or set up teammate for basket seemingly at will.

“We come into this every year and want to win it,” said Bouldin, the conference player of the year. “We want to be playing our best game going into the NCAA tournament. Winning this thing is everything.”

Running mate Steve Gray also has all-around skills in the backcourt and the player that helped put Gonzaga back in the Top 25 despite heavy personnel losses is freshman Elias Harris, who has 25.0 points and 8.5 rebounds in two wins over St. Mary’s. Gonzaga has covered eight straight against teams with winning record.

The Gaels (25-5) work is not done; with most knowledgeable experts with how the field is chosen believing St. Mary’s has to win to be in. If left up to sports bettors, the Gaels would already be in with their ultra-profitable 19-9-1 ATS record. However their wins are largely unimpressive and two of their losses have to Gonzaga by scores of 7 and 19, failing to cover either time. St. Mary’s knows center Omar Samhan will deliver, averaging 26.0 points and 11.5 rebounds, however points from the backcourt is paramount and getting Ben Allen in scoring mode. The Gaels are 18-0 SU when the Aussie reaches double figures and he’s averaged just 7.5 points in two outings.

Gonzaga is the betting choice at DiamondSportsbook.com, favored by 3.5-points with total of 146. Like usual, it will be difficult to bet against the Zags, as favorites are 59-30 ATS in this tourney since 1998, including 4-2 ATS this year. St. Mary’s needs prayers, since they are 0-8 ATS as neutral site underdogs.

Colonial Athletic Championship 7:00E ESPN

The CAA went more according to form than expected with regular season champion Old Dominion (25-8, 12-16-1 ATS) facing William and Mary (22-9, 16-10-1 ATS). The top-seeded Monarchs almost didn’t make this destination, forced to double overtime by Virginia Commonwealth yesterday, escaping 73-69 as two point favorites. Gerald Lee’s 26 points and Ben Finney’s huge three-point with 67 seconds left in the second overtime was the deciding edge. ODU has covered six of last eight as chalk.

William and Mary is the fifth seed and has had two close calls, narrowly knocking off James Madison in first game and squeaking by Northeastern 47-45 on Sunday as five point underdogs. The Tribe is 12-6 and 11-6 ATS away from home, but has lost both meetings to ODU. William and Mary is seeking first ever NCAA bid and will have to shoot well and block-out on the boards, since they lack the athleticism to go up and down with Old Dominion. They are 16-5 ATS as underdogs.

The Monarchs are favored by nine-points and the favorite has won this event nine straight times with 6-2-1 ATS record. Before believing Old Dominion is automatic, consider their 3-13 ATS record at neutral sites.

MAAC Championship 7:00E ESPN2

A few of the lower seeds pulled off upsets in the early rounds, but once the semi-finals began, the cream rose to the top. Siena (26-6, 16-12-2 ATS) was once again the league champion and takes on the club that finished right behind them in the standings, Fairfield (22-9, 14-11 ATS). The Saints will enjoy a decided advantage playing on their home floor at Times Union Center, where they are 14-0 (5-6-1 ATS) this season. Siena is making their fourth straight trip to the title games and has won each of the last two years. Seniors Edwin Ubiles and Alex Franklin are the bell-cows for the Saints who are 7-3 ATS facing a club with a winning record.

Fairfield showed the oddsmakers they deserved more respect, taking down Niagara 69-63 as 1.5-point underdogs yesterday, in spite of being higher seed. The Stags offense is spearheaded by Derek Needham and Anthony Johnson and they will have to come up big since Fairfield has lost twice to Siena this campaign. The Stags did cover the number once in their matchups and is 9-4 ATS on the road this season.

Fairfield is catching eight points, with total of 138 and underdogs of 4.5 or more points are 5-43 and 19-28-1 ATS in this tourney. The road team is 8-1 ATS in previous nine tries.

Southern Championship 9:00E ESPN2

There will be a new champion in the Southern Conference with the departure of Stephen Curry from Davidson. It seem fitting it should end this way as division kings Wofford (25-8, 15-11-2 ATS) and Appalachian State (22-11, 17-8 ATS) do battle. This is Wofford’s first ever appearance in the championship game and they come in riding a 12-game winning streak (5-5-2 ATS). Noah Dahlman leads the Terriers at 17 points per game and if reserve Terry Martin can drain 17 points off the bench like he did in the semis, Wofford has a real opportunity to cover the four-point favorite role they have been given.

Appalachian State is out to win their first SoCon crown since 2000. The Mountaineers are paced by leading scorer Donald Sims and they might need a similar eruption from Kelly Brand, who scored a career-high 37 points last evening against the College of Charleston, converting five of six three-point shots.

Appalachian State is on a real spread roll with 10-1 ATS mark in last 11 and is 104 ATS away from home.

Conference Tournament Pointspread Tendencies

As with any other type of game in college basketball betting, certain trends or tendencies form in the conference tournaments. These annual events are loaded with tradition and offer, in some cases, nearly identical circumstances from one year to the next. This is the type of foundation from which successful betting systems are built. Think about it, in many leagues, some of the teams, depending upon their seedings, will play at home. In other leagues, all the games are in a neutral environment. Some of the games are on multiple consecutive days, while in others, the schedules tend to favor the better teams. It all adds up to what should be a goldmine of data from which to dig. Let’s see what we can uncover for this first group of conference tournaments starting this week. Next week, I’ll be back to cover more of the major conferences.

Horizon League

*Since ’06, FAVORITES have held the upper hand in Horizon League Tournament games, going 21-12 ATS (63.6%).
*Horizon League FAVORITES playing on their home court in the conference tournament are 15-7 ATS (68.2%) since ’06.
*The last 20 Horizon League Tournament FAVORITES of 7-points or more have won outright and are 14-6 ATS (70%).
*Horizon League tournament games have been high scoring than expected of late, with the OVER the total going 21-13 (61.7%) over the L4 seasons.

Ohio Valley Conference

*UNDERDOGS have held a slight edge in the last five seasons of Ohio Valley Conference Tournament action, going 18-15 ATS (54.5%).
*The most successful UNDERDOGS in the OVC tournament are those that reach the semifinal round, as they are 5-5 SU & 7-3 ATS (70%) since ’05, including 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS the L2 years. * Only one UNDERDOG of 6.5-points or more has pulled an upset in the OVC Tournament since ’02, going 1-27 SU. However, these teams are 14-14 ATS (50%).

Missouri Valley Conference

*The Missouri Valley Conference has seen some significant trends develop by round. In the Opening Round games, UNDERDOGS are a profitable 11-11 SU & 14-8 ATS (63.6%) since ’98. *In the Quarterfinals, FAVORITES turn the tables, 14-6 ATS (70%) over the last five seasons.
*There have been 11 instances since ’04 where a LOWER SEEDED MVC tourney team was FAVORED. They are just 3-8 SU & ATS (27.3%) in that span.
*Large FAVORITES, or those laying 7-points or more have been very successful in the MVC tourney of late, 16-0 SU & 10-6 ATS (62.5%) since ’02.
*Since the MVC Tournament games started having totals on every contest (’05), the UNDER the total has dominated at a 30-15 (66.7%) rate.

Colonial Athletic Association

*The Colonial Athletic Association tournament has shown some strong trends dependent upon the round of play. In the Quarterfinals, UNDERDOGS are just 5-15 SU but on a 13-7 ATS (65%) run over the L5 seasons. In the Championship, the FAVORITE has won nine straight games while going 6-2-1 ATS (75%).
*DOUBLE-DIGIT UNDERDOGS have been an unbelievable cover in the CAA tournament of late, going 2-15 SU but 15-2 ATS (88.2%) since ’03.
*FAVORITES of less than 10-points have also been a highly profitable bet in the CAA tournament since ’02, going 40-19 ATS (67.8%).
*UNDER has been the flavor of choice on totals for CAA tournament games, with a bankroll-building 37-17 (68.5%) mark since ’04.

Sun Belt Conference

*Like a few of the other conferences already discussed, the Sun Belt Conference has shown some distinctive tendencies by round. In the opening round, UNDERDOGS have covered eight of 10 games (80%) over the L2 years.

*In the semifinals, FAVORITES are on a run of 7-3 ATS.
*SMALL FAVORITES of 3-points or less have produced a 16-9 ATS (64%) record in the Sun Belt Conference Tournament since ’02.
*Totals have shown a favoritism towards the OVER in the L5 Sun Belt Conference tournaments, going 35-20 (63.6%).

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference

*FAVORITES have had their way in the opening round of the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference tournament of late, going 10-4-1 ATS (71.4%) since ’04.
*UNDERDOGS of 4.5-points or more have only won five of the L44 MAAC tournament opportunities they’ve had while going 18-25-1 ATS (41.9%).
*Where offense has ruled the day in the MAAC Semifinals (7-1 OVER L4 years), defense has taken over the title game (6-1 UNDER L7).

Southern Conference

*Despite a 3-7 ATS mark in the 2007 Southern Conference Tournament, UNDERDOGS have held the upper hand in the league’s postseason proceedings, going 26-21 ATS (55.3%) since ’05.
*The early Southern Conference Tournament action has shown the most distinctive trends forming, with FAVORITES 18-10 ATS (64.3%) since ’02, and the UNDER 14-3 (82.3%) since ’04 in the Opening Round.
*Those favorites that survive the Opening Round of the Southern Conference Tournament also tend to fare well in the Quarterfinals, as UNDERDOGS in that round are on a 12-6 ATS (66.7%) run since ’05.
*Like the CAA, Southern Conference Tournament games have shown a strong UNDER tendency, going 36-17 (67.9%) on that side of the total since ’05.

West Coast Conference

*The West Coast Conference Tournament has been dominated by FAVORITES since ’98 to the tune of a 55-28 ATS (66.3%) record.
*FAVORITES own the edge in every round of the West Coast Conference Tournament over the L12 seasons, highlighted by a 10-3 ATS (76.9%) record in Round One.
*Neutral court FAVORITES of 7-points or more are 27-0 SU & 19-8 ATS (70.4%) in the WCC tournament since ’98.
*Oddsmakers have hinted which games in the WCC tournament have been high scoring, as on those with totals of 146 or higher since ’01, OVER the total is 10-1 (90.9%).

Big Sky Conference

*The Big Sky Conference has shown a shift to FAVORITES in the last three seasons, as those teams laying points have converted 10 of the 15 (66.7%) games during that stretch.
*There have only been two upsets in the Big Sky Conference tournament semifinals over the last seven years, and FAVORITES are 10-4 ATS (71.4%) in that span.
*The Big Sky Conference is one of few where LARGE UNDERDOGS, or those getting 7-points or more, have a good shot at an upset, owning a 4-8 SU & 8-4 ATS record since ’98, including 2-2 SU & 4-0 ATS over the L2 years.
*FAVORITES in the -4 to -6.5-point line range have been nearly automatic in Big Sky Conference tournament action, 16-1 SU & 15-2 ATS (88.2%).

Summit League

This year’s Summit League Tournament will be the first one where games beyond the championship will be lined. In the previous two title games, the FAVORITE is 2-0 SU & 1-1 ATS.

Mid-American Conference

*FAVORITES are the preferred betting choice in MAC tournament games in recent years, with a record of 40-26 ATS (60.6%) over the L6 seasons.
*The MAC title game has seen the FAVORITE go 9-3 SU & ATS (75%) since its inception. The straight up winner is 12-0 ATS.
*Semifinal FAVORITES in the MAC tournament have swept the last three years of action and are 5-1 ATS (83%) in that span.
*The best spot for playing UNDERDOGS in the MAC tournament has proven to be in games when the lines are 3-points or less. In such cases, they are 23-16 ATS (59%) since ’98.
*OVER the total has been the preferred choice on that wagering option since ’04, with a 37-24 (60.7%) record since ’04.

By Steve Makinen of StatFox.com.