NIT has Quality Contest for Bettors Attention

Normally, the early rounds of the NIT are about as anticipated as another episode of “Chuck “on NBC. That changes this year, at least for one game, when Davidson travels to Moraga, CA. to take on St. Mary’s in the second round no less of the National Invitational Tournament.

What has caused the uproar of having the 3,500 seat McKeon Pavilion sold out in the fastest time ever in school history, well, just like in the days of the Old West, a hotshot gunslinger is coming to town and plain folks want to see what he has and the locals want to see how he holds up against their guy, who’s returning to form after being wounded.

Davidson (27-7, 14-16-2 ATS) has Stephen Curry who took the Wildcats within one late missed three-point shot of being one of the biggest surprise Final Four teams in years, losing to eventual champion Kansas in the Elite Eight. Davidson was upset by College of Charleston in the Southern Conference tournament semi-finals, which relegated them to the NIT this season. The Wildcats simply are not as good as last year’s squad, but have continued to show to be a wise road wager since Curry stepped on campus with a 29-11-1 ATS record as visitors.

St. Mary’s (27-6, 17-12 ATS) is excited about the opportunity to play in nationally recognized contest, yet you know they believe it would be them, not Arizona, in the Sweet 16 if they would have been given the chance. The Patty Mills injury and subsequent play sent the Gaels in this direction and the best thing they can do is win the tournament to prove their point.

St. Mary’s is 8-2 ATS versus good teams outscoring their opponents by four or more points a game this season and Mills looks to be at or near full strength, scoring 27 points against Washington State in NIT opener. Curry laid 32 on South Carolina, his 15th game of 30 or more this season, and relishes the competition.

“It's beyond just me and him (Mills) out there playing, “Curry said. “ I'm just excited to go out there and play and take on a new, different opponent."

While both schools easily score in the 70’s, the coaches will stress defense. Davidson holds opposing teams to 39.6 percent shooting and is 15-4 and 9-8 ATS on the road. St. Mary’s isn’t quite as good at 41.3 percent, nonetheless holds opponents to fewer points at 63.8 points per game, compared to the Wildcats 65.5.

Davidson is a four-point underdog at Bookmaker.com, with a total of 143, which is a role they have embraced, posting 11-1 ATS record as an underdog over the last two seasons. St. Mary’s is 14-1 and 6-6 ATS at home and is 7-1 against the number when a favorite or underdog of 10 or less points on home floor.

"The Steph-Patty Mills matchup, everyone is talking about it," Davidson forward Steve Rossiter said. "I just got to make sure I don't get caught watching during the game."

ESPN2 hopes people are interested enough to want to check out the action, though the 11:30 Eastern time slot might be arduous for those in the East and Midwest. Keep in mind Davidson is 18-5 ATS as a road underdog of six points or less, winning by an average of 1.6 points.

Jockeying for Position in College Hoops

The final week to two weeks before conferences start playing their tournaments can be full of land mines. A situation to watch for are teams that have just achieved a meaningful goal or hit a milestone. Those teams can be a great “go against” in their next game as many times it is a letdown situation. A team winning its 20th game or clinching a conference title should be noted. Drake last year exceeded their goals in winning the Missouri Valley Conference title. Their next game was at home against Bradley as a 6.5-point favorite. They lost outright.

You should know if a team is locked into a certain seed or within a range of their conference standings and have really nothing to gain in their final few conference games prior to their tournament. Be careful with those squads as the coach might want to rest key players or be more concerned in preparation for the tournament than for individual games.

What teams took a tumble this past week or at least lost some of their shine? Let’s start with Davidson. Their foe, Butler, became the only real victor who gained anything in Bracket Busters weekend. The Bulldogs had just lost two games back to back in the Horizon League, one of them at home, and were looking vulnerable. Butler, a very young team, but one who plays tremendous defense with intensity handled the more experienced Davidson squad rather easily.

Stephen Curry did play for Davidson but stated he was not 100%. Davidson’s chance of securing an at-large bid was already in jeopardy as they had lost at home to The Citadel by 16 points within the week. Curry missed that game but a Tourney team should never lose to The Citadel at home, especially by double-digits.

A case could be made that St. Mary’s also got a huge up-tick in their stock beating Utah State, and covering the point spread I should add. However, with an RPI of 53 and playing in the 15th ranked West Coast Conference, it is the NIT unless they beat the #1 WCC Tournament seed, Gonzaga, in the conference tournament. If that happens, the conspiracy theorists will come out of the woodwork saying the Zags loss was orchestrated by the conference to get the extra money they earn by having an additional team in the big dance.

Going into the weekend there was talk the Mountain West could get four teams into the NCAA’s: BYU, Utah, UNLV, and San Diego State. UNLV beat BYU over the weekend but San Diego State got mauled by New Mexico on the road losing by 26 points. The Aztecs have a slightly higher RPI than the Rebels, 47th to 50th, and did beat UNLV in OT in Vegas. UNLV also suffered from losing three road games to second tier Mountain West schools. Two big games on the road for UNLV are Utah on 2/25 and San Diego State on 3/7.

The Ohio Valley Conference only accepts the top eight of its ten schools into their tournament. This coming Saturday there is a true elimination game as the two teams tied for 8th in the conference with 5-12 records meet each other in their final regular season game. Tennessee Tech travels to Jacksonville State with the winner grabbing the #8 seed for the tourney and the loser calling it a season. Tennessee Tech did lose at home to Jacksonville St. earlier this year, 82-66.

The Pac-10 is a conference that has byes going to the top 6 teams in round 1 of their tourney. The bottom four schools have to play an extra game and thus will have to be victorious in four straight games without any rest to win their tournament, an almost impossible accomplishment. The two teams with the best chance of getting the #6 seed are USC and Oregon State, which incidentally meet on their last P-10 game.

UCLA is showing some deficiencies. They dropped their Saturday home game to Washington St. and have now lost three of their past four. Believe it or not, the Bruin defense has been performing terribly allowing a defensive efficiency rating of over 116 in those past four games. Their RPI has slipped to #36 and have a game at Cal Saturday, #32, which will help determine conference tourney seeding.

In the Big 12, the first four teams get a bye. Right now, there are four squads fighting for that #4 seed: Texas, Kansas St., Oklahoma St., and Nebraska. It is always important to be aware of any added motivation a team might have in a game.

The bottom two teams don’t go to the Atlantic 10 Tournament. These should be George Washington and Fordham. Even though it appears Fordham long ago gave up on the season, 4-18 ATS, their last game of the season is at home against St. Joseph’s and it could be a spot to consider the Rams.

St. Joseph had high aspirations going into the season, some people picked them to win the A-10. They looked good winning nine of ten games after the beginning of the year but have stumbled losing four in a row. The Hawks play cross-town rival Temple the Thursday before their final scheduled game against Fordham on Saturday, 3/7. The St. Joe bench is the next to shortest in the D-1 with only 14.96% of all minutes not coming from their starters. With this being Fordham’s final game of the year and St. Joseph possibly resting players who are exhausted from a long season, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Rams cover the point spread.

The Big Ten grants first-round byes to the top five finishers. The middle of the pack, Penn St., Wisconsin, Minnesota, Ohio St., and Michigan, are fighting for seeds 4 and 5. All five of these are also on or very close to the bubble.

Assuming Memphis wins the Conference USA Tournament, they will probably be the only league representative in the NCAA Tournament. However, if #39 RPI UAB beats Memphis at home this Thursday and runs the table, they would probably make it the final cut. The Blazers looked impressive humiliating Southern Miss by 30 points Saturday.

Teams like to feel as if they have “locked in” an invitation to the big dance before going to their conference post-season play. They don’t want to be in a position where they possibly have to win the tournament, or at minimum are required to have a very good showing, to make it to the NCAA Tourney.

Kentucky is sitting on the fence with a convincing win over Tennessee this past Saturday that they sorely needed. Their final four regular season games will make or break them as they still face South Carolina, LSU, and Florida. Only LSU of those teams is probably a lock for the NCAA so they should be hotly contested battles. Inconsistency, a #61 RPI, and an opening game loss to the Big South’s VMI are hurting the Wildcats.

Like other 12-team leagues, the ACC’s top four teams get a bye while the other 8 play. Wake Forest is fighting to overtake the current #4 team, Florida State. One team you can count out for an at-large berth is Virginia Tech. Not only have the Hokies lost 5 of their last 7, but their remaining four games are with Clemson, Duke, North Carolina, and Florida State.

A couple of RPI oddities are out there. Siena could be this year’s version of the 2006 Missouri State program that finished with a #21 RPI but didn’t get an at-large bid. The Saints played a tough schedule and are 5-0 against teams ranked 51-100. However, they have two losses to 101-200 schools.

If anybody has the time, could you please explain to me how Utah has managed to be the #11 RPI rated team? They lost to Southwest Baptist, a non-Division 1 team, and the #186 team, Idaho State. They are 0-1 versus 1-25 teams and 4-4 against 51-100 squads.

Jim Kruger of Vegas Sports Authority wrote article.

Winning Bracket Buster info and Top Tilts

In this era of corporate greed being exposed, government self-interests more important than the people who elected these same officials, it’s good to see the average Joe being able to stand up and be heard. In college basketball, the Bracket Buster has become an annual event, where the so-called mid-major schools go head-to-head across the country, being able to compare themselves against a variety of different conferences.

For the serious college basketball and sports bettor, this is an important weekend, being able to visibly see a number of teams they would not view otherwise and make key determinations on a variety of these clubs for the end of the season, conference tournaments and those invited to post-season activities.

This can be a little like interleague baseball, where bettors are thrown off normal routines. In an effort to make this situation more palatable, here is key wagering information over the last three years to consider.

The first aspect that smacks you in the face is road teams are 90-53-4 ATS, 62.9 percent. In trying to explain why this would happen, it has to do with team and conference pride. This is a big moment for the visitor, going into hostile territory. The home team or the crowd doesn’t know what to make of this opponent and can be caught off-guard. This has been particularly true if the oddsmakers are expecting tight contest, with the road teams 23-11 SU & 25-9 ATS (73.5 percent), when the line is +3 to -3.

Certain conferences have shown extreme results that should be followed. The Missouri Valley Conference teams have hosted a number of these matchups. Though, The Valley is highly thought of, they are just 9-8 SU and 4-12-1 ATS at home, including hideous 0-8-1 spread run in last nine games.

A few of those encounters have come against the Colonial Athletic Association, who is 8-7 in Bracket Buster roadies, with sparkling 10-5 ATS mark.

The MAC over the years has done well in the Big Dance and has unexpected results in this event. The MAC is .500 in 32 tilts over three seasons, but is 7-11 ATS at home and 8-5 against the spread on the road, matching the aforementioned profile.

The Big West Conference receives little if any acclaim, since UNLV moved on years ago. They are often fodder for larger schools in non-conference, yet have held their own against teams of their ilk. The Big West is 12-12 SU, with 13-10-1 ATS record and watch for these squads as favorites, boasting 7-3-1 ATS mark.

The MAAC teams are having another spirited campaign. This league ends up playing primarily road games for this competition and they are 9-6 ATS, with six victories.

Make certain to scout out double digit road underdogs. They may be 2-18, but they are 12-7-1 against the spread.

Here is a look at the key televised Bracket Buster contests.

Butler at Davidson 12:00ET, ESPN

The gem of the Bracket Buster is this matchup, two teams all but certain to be in the field of 65 teams in mid-March; however they have made situation more tenuous with recent play. Over the last two seasons, Butler (22-4, 15-9 ATS) has won a staggering 26 games away from home. The Bulldogs do this by playing outstanding defense, limiting both made baskets and quality shots and offense is not afraid to run down the shot clock to earn a better look at the rim. Since Butler became an elite mid-major, the types of players have gotten noticeably more athletic, providing even greater versatility. However they have dropped two in row Horizon League play, which will not help their cause. The Bulldogs are 12-4 ATS playing against a team with a winning record this season.

With Davidson (22-5, 12-12-1 ATS) losing to the College of Charleston and the Citadel at home, this meeting suddenly takes on greater importance. The earlier losses on the road to ranked teams didn’t hurt the Wildcats value, but this pair of defeats certainly does. Stephen Curry missed the last game with a sprained ankle and will be game time decision. Beating a team like Butler, who has been ranked for sometime, helps restore faith among those that matter. Look for Davidson to want to set the tempo and they are 17-6 ATS versus teams outscoring opponents by eight or more points a game after 15 contests have been played.

Davidson is 11-3 ATS in last 14 non-conference games and could use a win to stem the negative tide.

Buffalo at Vermont 1:00ET, ESPN2

Buffalo U. is going for the rare double, being MAC football and basketball champions in the same year. The Bulls (17-7, 12-11 ATS) are off to their best start in league play since joining the conference in 1998. Guard Rodney Pierce is candidate for MAC Player of the Year and forward Calvin Betts is worthy of all-MAC mention, but they key has been moving Greg Gamble to the point guard spot to bring everything together. Buffalo has lost last two contests and is only 1-5 ATS since late January. The shocking home loss to Bowling Green was unexpected and they are 7-1 ATS off a loss by 10 or more points.

Vermont (21-7) is again in the thick of the America East race and a dangerous team. The Catamounts average better than 77 points a game, with quality scorers like forward Marcus Blakely, who numerous double-double’s and point guard Mike Trimboli is doubled-edged threat as scorer and passer. Few of Vermont’s games have lines, however this will and they are 11-3 at home.

Northern Iowa at Siena 3:00 ET, ESPN2

Two leaders of their respective conferences will share the afternoon spotlight. Northern Iowa (18-9, 11-12 ATS) has been the best team in the Missouri Valley, before falling twice this past week. The Panthers are battled tested, with 11 of their games being decided by six points or fewer. UNI is not reliant on any one player, preferring a mix of players to add up to winning formula. Whether it is Ali Farokhmanesch dropping three-points or Adam Koch and Jordan Eglelander controlling the paint, this is club with more than one answer. Look for the Panthers to be up to the challenge with 7-4 and 6-5 ATS road record.

Coming into this week, Siena (21-6, 11-14 ATS) had the second highest RPI ranking (29) of any Bracket Buster team. The Saints have won the MAAC thanks to the efforts of Kenny Hasbrouck and swingman Edwin Ubiles. Siena brought back all five starters and averages better than 77 points per game, yet are not ambitious defenders, with opponents converting 43.6 percent from the field. Teams like Northern Iowa can bother the Saints, since they are 5-13 ATS in home games versus teams making 45 percent or more of their shots.

Northern Iowa could be in dubious spot with recent 1-10 ATS non-conference record and going against Siena who is 13-5 ATS if opponent has better than 60 percent win percentage.

Utah State at St. Mary’s 5:00ET, ESPN2

Utah State (25-2, 13-8 ATS) is having their way with the Western Athletic Conference, holding a substantial lead and will test the waters of the West Coast Conference. The Aggies are doing what they always do, just better this season. Utah State under coach Stew Morrill is again one of the best shooting teams in the country and plays tenacious defense. Utah State is the only team in the nation to win at least 23 games in each of the past 10 seasons and was recently featured in an article in the USA Today. The Aggies brilliant campaign has been spear-headed by junior college transfer Jared Quayle. Utah State is 10-1 and 7-2 ATS in road games.

It hasn’t been a happy time for St. Mary’s since losing guard Patty Mills to broken hand. His ability as scorer and playmaker has left the Gaels (21-5, 14-8 ATS) with a massive void having lost four of seven. His departure has eroded the confidence of the team and players like Diamon Simpson have not stepped in to fill scoring gap. Center Omar Samhan is a good player, but he needs someone to feed him the ball in the post to be effective. St. Mary’s covers roughly one-third of their games against teams that have 42 or lower field goal percentage defense.

St. Mary’s is still hopeful Mills will return before the end of season and a win over a Top 25 team, without him would bolster the confidence of those choosing the field of 65. It will take a supreme effort by the Gaels with Utah State 10-3 ATS in non-conference action.

George Mason at Creighton 9:30ET, ESPNU

Creighton (22-6, 15-9 ATS) has steadily improved since a slow start in Missouri Valley action, winning seven straight encounters (5-2 ATS), to move into first place tie with Northern Iowa, which is no surprise with coach Dana Altman at the helm. Altman recently registered his 300th Valley victory and typically focused the attention on his team, instead of himself. As hobbling players like guard Booker Woodfox are returning to health and Justin Carter, Kenny Lawson and Kenton Walker continue to improve, this might be the best team in the conference by the time the post-season tourney arrives. The Blue Jays are 13-2, but just 5-6 ATS in Omaha.

George Mason (18-8, 14-6-1 ATS) could be the best team in the Colonial, if they could win on the road. The Patriots have suffered five road losses by a total of 18 points. The fault lies with the defense, which allows 10.1 more points per game on the road than at the Patriot Center. In this contest, watch the backcourt of John Vaughn and Dre Smith both can fill up the basket in a hurry. Louis Birdsong is George Mason’s best inside defender. The Patriots are 9-1 ATS versus good ball handling teams committing 14 or fewer turnovers a game this season.

George Mason is the underdog, nonetheless is 8-2 ATS against teams with winning records.

What's on Wagering Notice for Monday-Keep Reading

With two more winners yesterday, we are 9-2 the last week and the LCC has been handing out winners like candy with their consensus plays. Today they have a NBA selection for Free and our Best System looks at the very same game, but from the totals perspective. Today’s Top Trend checks in on a college basketball team plays against the spread with minimal rest. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY UNDER on road teams like Oklahoma City where the total is greater than or equal to 200, after having covered three of their last four against the spread and playing their 5th game in a week. The results are 22-5, 81.5 percent the last five years.

Free Basketball Trend -2) Davidson is 13-3 ATS when playing with one or less days rest over the last three seasons.

Free Basketball Selection -3) The Left Coast Connection consensus is making the right calls and has five players on New Jersey with nobody on the other side.


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Monday's Best Basketball Wagering Outlooks

Kendall was 3-1 yesterday in the NFL and called me to say he was sorry about Buffalo not covering and being shutout. I told him with all the winners we picked up from him, not a problem. Sal takes his place today after a strong college basketball weekend and offers his best play. The Top Trend takes a look at Davidson in very challenging spot tonight. The Best System play is remarkable 22-3 in the NBA. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY AGAINST home teams like New Jersey off an upset win as an underdog, against opponent off three or more consecutive road losses. This is a very strong system that is 22-3 ATS, 88 percent since 2004.

Free Basketball Trend -2) Davidson is 12-2 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last two seasons.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Sal from the LLC was 5-1 in college hoops this past weekend and is riding Connecticut at -6 in Big East bash this Monday.

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Methods to Improve your College Hoops Handicapping

College basketball is a sport that has more variance by teams from season to season than any other. You are dealing only with five players competing at one time against another team. One player can make a huge difference in a team’s results on a straight-up basis and also in covering the point spread. If you were a NCAA hoops fan in 1988, you will remember Danny and the Miracles winning it all for the University of Kansas. Can anyone name any of Danny Manning’s teammates?

It is never too early to start looking at a team’s characteristics and tendencies in college hoops. After all, you want to get on a team or find squads to bet against as early as possible when the point spreads and totals might not be entirely in line. Many of the teams you find to bet against will not be in the same form they were last year or not living up to expectations. And, obviously, just the opposite is true when looking for teams to put on your “play on list”. You can find line value on the surprise teams that everybody else hasn’t already spotted and you can find get extra points going against the disappointing teams.

Many times when a coach leaves a program, especially after a few good years, it seems the program takes a downturn, as if the outgoing coach knew the incoming and returning talent wasn’t going to be able to keep up with the success of prior campaigns. This appears to be the situation at Wichita State with Mark Turgeon leaving the wheat fields of Kansas for the Aggies of Texas A&M last year. WSU struggled with all types of bad luck last season even though they were able to hire a fine coach, Greg Marshall, with a very good track record. As head coach of Big South Winthrop, Marshall led his team to seven NCAA Tournament appearances in nine years. That is even more impressive when you realize this is a league that gets one invitation to the Big Dance.

Marshall has taken a diverse team of newbies and covered the spread three games in a row against quality competition including Georgetown and Michigan State. This is a team that was picked in the bottom three of the Missouri Valley Conference. Marshall is an excellent teacher and I expect WSU to outperform preseason predictions. They are currently sporting a 4-0 against the spread record and a team worth watching.

UNLV is a team that was picked to win the Mountain West and finish in the Top 25. A strong recruiting class was supposed to help the three returning starters, especially in the middle where the Rebels started 6-7 Joe Darger at center last year. Five-star recruit 7-0 Beas Hamga has seen virtually zero minutes as he is the epitome of a project. UNLV is counting on 3-point shots to fall as their lack of an inside presence has hurt them. The offense revolves around star guard Wink Adams. If he is not playing up to par, UNLV is an average team at best. The Rebels are 1-4-1 ATS even though they were picked to win the Mountain West Conference. UNLV dropped two games over the weekend with Adams going 5 for 25 from the field averaging 7.5 ppg.

In determining which teams to wager on, a statistic I like to look at is the difference in offensive field goal shooting and defensive shooting percentage. I have long maintained that good shooting teams are ones you want to look at to back against the point spread. Playing good defense only makes a team tougher to beat. Wake Forest is among leaders the nation in this category along with Arizona and Utah. Stew Morrill’s teams are always tough Utah State and they lead the country in shooting percentage at 56.6 percent. These are the types of teams I will look to play on as the season progresses.

Teams that are at the other end of the spectrum are Wright State, Louisiana-Monroe, Drexel, and UC-Irvine. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to realize that a team that doesn’t shoot well and doesn’t defend well is not a good team to bet on. These are teams I put in my “play against” file.

Another statistical area I like to examine is a teams’ turnover differential. When you have many teams only taking 57 to 63 shots per game, a discrepancy in the number of net turnovers each team has can make a difference in the outcome of the game. Teams that have a very good differential include Louisville, Houston, Davidson, West Virginia, Missouri, and Nebraska. These teams also have a 14-6 ATS mark at the time of writing this article. Protecting the rock while being able to steal it are two qualities I want in teams I back.

I am always wary of putting my money on teams that shoot an extraordinary number of three-point goals relative to their two-point field goal attempts. If hoisting shots up from downtown is a team’s main method of offense, it can be a long day if the bombs are not going down. A bad shooting night can obviously happen, especially on the road away from the comforts and familiarity of your home gym. Teams rarely get to the free throw often when they are camping out behind the three-point arc which increases the reliance of making those 3’s.

Some good examples of teams shooting a relatively high number of 3’s and a low number of free throws are Iowa State, 14th out of 344 teams on three-point attempts, 326th on free-throw attempts. Troy is 22nd in TPA’s and 340th in FTA’s, Tennessee-Martin, 42nd and 324th, and Akron, 47th and 320th. Combined, these teams have a 3-11 ATS record. These will be teams I will avoid playing on and will be on my play against list when they are on the road.

On a side note, it is still too early to determine if moving the three-point line back a foot to 20’9” will make much of a difference. Currently there is a 1.2% reduction in the percentage of 3’s being made out of the 344 Division-1 teams, 33.2% this year compared to 34.4% last year. Teams overall are cutting back just a shade on the percentage of shots from behind the arc, 33.3% of all field goal attempts this year versus 34.4% last season.

These are some basic methods to start making a play on/against directory of teams. With so many lined teams, it is wise to have some methodologies to par your respective lists down.

Jim Kruger of Vegas Sports Authority contributed this article.

Monday's Top Wagering info

Never take anything for granted, especially 2-1 days in the NFL. In the NBA on Monday, a very good Top Trend is worth consideration based on shooting. Today’s Best System is 81.5 percent against the spread and this team has never lost outright. Jason from the LLC had a strong weekend in college hoops and has a Best Bet as a Free Play. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON home favorites of 10 or more points like Davidson, off a home blowout win by 20 points or more, who won 80 percent or more of their games last season, playing a team who had a losing record last year. This is 22-5 ATS, 81.5 percent and has never lost straight up (27-0), with the winning margin being 27.5 on average.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Miami Heat are 2-11 ATS in home games after a game where they made 50% of their 3-point shots or better over the last three seasons.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Jason of the Left Coast Connection was 7-1 in college basketball wagering the last three days and is playing Alabama as his best bet.

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