Saints look to go heavenly 14-0

The Saints look to stay perfect when they host the Cowboys in a special Saturday night NFL Network contest. New Orleans has just Dallas, Tampa, and Carolina standing in the way of a 16-0 season, and although being the NFC representative for the Super Bowl is foremost on the coaches and players minds, Sean Payton and his team at least outwardly is embracing the idea of seeking perfection.

New Orleans (13-0, 8-5 ATS) will look to do what they do best, score points. The Saints score NFL-best 35.8 points per game and they have done so against teams allowing 23 PPG. They are still within striking distance of setting the all-time record for points at 36.8, set by the New England Patriots in 2007. New Orleans is 24-4 ATS when they have scored 30 or more points under coach Payton.

The Saints are 6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS at home, scoring 36.7 PPG. After years of being one of the most melancholy home franchises in the NFL, New Orleans is 11-2 and 10-3 ATS at the Superdome the last two years.

For this contest and the remaining other two, coach Payton would probably like to get more balanced offensively, as they have thrown 90 times compared to 50 rush attempts in last two outings.

Drew Brees is the NFL's top-rated passer, and he leads the league with 32 touchdown passes. Brees can go to four different receivers, all with big play ability and can hand the ball off to three distinct running backs that each have a style and unique way to be productive. Off last week’s win at Atlanta, the Saints are 10-2 ATS after playing their last game on the road over the last two seasons.

The sports bettor has to make a decision in the contest, spunk or funk? The Saints have come from behind several times in the second half to win games and Dallas is a December punching bag. After losing to San Diego at home, any talk of Dallas players saying December is just another month is like saying the Cowboys are unbeaten in June.

Dallas last month woes have gotten to them mentally. Though they still have two division games left on the docket, in a lot of ways, this is the swing game. Win at New Orleans and the Cowboys feel like Tiger Woods finding out Elin wants him back without a new pre-nup. Another loss sinks Dallas further into the December abyss and suddenly they have gone from looking like division champions to the Denver Broncos of last season. The Boys are 10-22 ATS in road games off a non-conference clash and as widely reported, 1-9 ATS in December games over the last three seasons.

It would seem logical for the Cowboys to lean on their ground attack, even after it combined for just 153 yards over the last two weeks, because the Saints have struggled against the run and rank near the bottom of the NFL in rushing touchdowns allowed (15). Doing so, however, still doesn’t guarantee that Drew Brees won’t find a way to drop at least four touchdowns on the board, because he can move the offense upfield faster than any quarterback in the league. Throw in Tony Romo’s history of poor play in December—he has a 16-to-19 touchdown-to-interception ratio in 15 final month games and Jerry Jones club at 10-22 ATS in road games vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards a game looks about right.

Bookmaker.com has the Saints as 7.5-point favorites with total of 53.5. The New Orleans defense has been picked on and despite incredible offensive numbers; they are just 2-5 ATS in last seven games. The Saints are 8-1 OVER against conference opponents over the last two seasons. Dallas is going to have to generate a pass rush without DeMarcus Ware and they are 9-1 ATS after being burned for 250 or more yards thru the air. The Cowboys are 9-4 OVER as underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points.

Keys to follow are the beginning of the game. Most of the Saints covers have been with fast starts and with raucous crowd, the Cowboys “want to” will be tested early. Wade Phillips will need big game from his offensive and defensive lines to control the game and Romo can’t revert to old ways of chucking the pigskin up for grabs against opportunistic defense.

With Dallas expected to blitz, the Saints immensely effective screen game applies. One aspect in the Cowboys recent losses, Miles Austin has been a non-factor, giving them no long threat.

At the end of this contest, the question will be – Who dat?

3DW Line – New Orleans by 10.5

Steve Makinen of The Platinum Sheet and College and Pro Football Weekly contributed to this article.

NFL Week 9 Sunday Key Info

New York may have the champions of baseball, but they also have football that was supposed to be a Super Bowl contender that’s surrendered 110 points in three consecutive losses. The Giants will attempt to end losing streak against San Diego before their bye week. It’s a conundrum for NFL sports bettors, with several large spreads in division games; do you take or give the points? Baltimore upset Denver last week and is now a road favorite at first place Cincinnati who’s rested off a bye. Hmmm.

Houston at Indianapolis 1:00E CBS

Houston (5-3, 4-3-1 ATS) has only beaten Indianapolis one time in franchise history, against 13 defeats (8-6 ATS). A second win would help close the gap between the teams in the AFC South race. That is an unlikely occurrence though, as oddsmakers have Indy as a heavy nine-point favorite, and the Colts average home win over the Texans has been 35-17. Houston does have the ability to keep it close though, since last year’s two meetings were decided by four and six points, and head coach Gary Kubiak’s team is 5-2 ATS in pre-bye week games, all as an underdog. Also, Indy (7-0, 5-2 ATS) is on a 1-4 spread slide at home vs. AFC South foes, while Houston has covered seven of its last nine against divisional games. The last eight meetings between these teams have gone OVER the total, averaging 56.1 points per game, with 48 being the fewest points scored.

Keys to the Game-

Houston finally had a big rushing day, running over Buffalo for 186 yards. The Texans are still only 28th in rushing, but it’s a start and Indianapolis is 23rd in the league in allowing 4.5 yards per carry. Establishing a running game keeps Peyton Manning on the bench. Who leads the NFL in passing yards, not Manning, its Matt Schaub. The former Virginia signal caller has lots of weapons, even without TE Owen Daniels (out for season). Schaub has to be judicious in making the right choices and not turning the ball over. Houston is 10-2 ATS in the second two road encounters and has improved immensely on defense going from 32nd after three games, to current 16th ranking. Stop the Colts running game and play coverage, since blitzing Manning only works if you get there.

Indianapolis will have to bring a pass rush, since they are up against a decided mismatch with backups at the corners vs. talented Texans’ pass catchers. While Manning threw for 349 yards last week, it was an “off” game for him as the Colts kicked four field goals in scoring only 18 points. Manning seldom has two such games and Houston only has 11 sacks (T-29th). Indy is 9-1 ATS off a non-cover when the team won as a favorite over the last three seasons.

3DWLine – Indianapolis by 9
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Indianapolis -8.5, 50

Baltimore at Cincinnati 1:00E CBS

Baltimore and Cincinnati have an important rematch, of what was one of the most exciting games of 2009 to date. The Bengals (5-2, 4-3 ATS) won in Baltimore 17-14, as nine-point underdogs, on a last minute field goal and have since stayed atop the AFC North Division. This week’s venue switches to the Queen City, where favorites have won the last five head-to-head series meetings. Cincinnati owns a 3-2 SU & ATS edge in that span. The Bengals were on bye last week and are just 4-9 ATS in post-bye week games since 1996. They are 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS in division games this season. The Ravens (4-3, 5-2 ATS) won a big game against Denver to snap a three-game losing skid and climb back over .500. They are backed by a StatFox Super Situation showing road teams as 60-27 ATS since 2005 revenging an upset loss at home.

Keys to the Game-

Denver made a big miscue in not attacking Baltimore’s corners down the field, Cincinnati won’t let that pass. The Ravens secondary problems can be masked with pass rush, however Carson Palmer has too much talent on the perimeter, this means Baltimore has to keep damage to a minimum. If anything, stop the run and force Palmer into bad down and distance situations. Note to Baltimore- Stop playing such vanilla defense, keep blitzing like last week. Baltimore has to run effectively with its three-headed monster and control the game in that fashion and let Joe Flacco run play-action. Flacco is averaging 7.0 yards per pass attempt and the Birds are 19-3 ATS when they gain 6.5 to 7 net passing YPA.

Palmer was burned by Ed Reed for Pick Six in last encounter; he must stay away from the All-Pro safety. One difference Cincinnati has this season that is a benefit against Baltimore is more physical style in the trenches. They can compete and welcome back RT Andre Smith, which should only helps RB Cedric Benson. Tight end Todd Heap again is not healthy, which places a premium on bottling WR Derrick Mason. Put Mason in a defensive jar (pitiful) and the Bengals are 7-0 ATS as underdogs.

3DW Line – Baltimore by 3
Bookmaker.com Line – Baltimore -3, 44.5

Miami at New England 1:00E CBS

The Patriots (5-2, 4-3 ATS) are starting to strike fear into opponents and oddsmakers once again, and wins of 35-7 and 59-0 in a two-week span tend to do that. Reestablishing a dominant home field advantage also helps, as they are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their previous home contests with an average win of 24.4 points per game. They have had two weeks to bask in the limelight of a satisfying win in London over the Bucs, but need to get back to business here against division rival Miami (3-4 ATS). New England has won and covered five straight games as a post-bye week favorite, but has lost both of its divisional battles against the spread this season. They are 6-3 SU and ATS hosting Miami since 2000. The Dolphins are 3-4 after winning miraculously in New York last week. They are 4-0 SU & ATS on the divisional road under coach Tony Sparano.

Keys to the Game-

Did Miami really beat the Jets after having 52 yards passing and 52 yards rushing last week? That’s not going to work against New England unless they have three non-offensive touchdowns again. The Dolphins need running game to work right for the first quarter, as Chad Henne did not look nearly as comfortable in enemy territory. Attack the Patriots deep, be it with Ted Ginn Jr. or rookie Brian Hartline, to keep New England from crowding the line of scrimmage to stop the run. The Fins have young secondary and unless Joey Porter and Jason Taylor can create havoc, Miami falls to 4-16 ATS off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog.

Tom Brady looks better with each passing game, as the affects of knee surgery dissipate. Having great sight lines and clean pocket opens up the entire Pats playbook for Brady, which suggests the offensive line has to do its job. New England was the first victim of Miami “wildcat” last season and contained it the second time around. With two weeks for Bill Belichick to breakdown any more nuances, New England might really put the clamps on. Belichick has a history of limiting quarterbacks with not much experience. The Patriots are 24-9 ATS off a win by two touchdowns or more and cannot let the Miami special teams be a factor or the game tightens considerably.

3DW Line – New England by 10.5
Sportsbook.com Line – New England -10.5, 46.5

Carolina at New Orleans 4:05E FOX

New Orleans (7-0, 6-1 ATS) wraps up a two-game divisional homestand when it hosts Carolina (3-4, 2-5 ATS). The Saints will look to turn the tide on what has been a run of dominance by the Panthers in this series in New Orleans. In fact, Carolina owns a 7-1 SU and 7-0-1 ATS record in its last eight trips to Bourbon Street. Expanding on that, road teams have gone 11-4 SU and are scintillating 13-1-1 ATS overall in the last 15 series engagements. That might be all that head coach John Fox’s team has going as a double-digit dog, since these teams have gone in different directions since their regular season ending meeting in January. Since then the Panthers have gone just 3-5 SU & ATS, while the Saints had yet to lose in 2009. New Orleans is 2-6 ATS in the second of back-to-back home games under Sean Payton.

Keys to the Game –

Carolina got back to playing Panthers football in Arizona, rushing for 270 yards. That formula is what works best for coach Fox’s club and they have to be encouraged Atlanta gouged New Orleans for 6.7 yards per carry (161yards) last Monday night. The Saints feast on mistakes, QB Jake Delhomme has to made decisions like a Rhodes Scholar and not give New Orleans opportunities. The Panthers are 15-6 ATS on the NFC South road since 2002 and have to create a profusion of defensive looks to at least make Drew Brees hesitate an instant and hope the pass rush arrives.

Jumping on Carolina is the best way to beat them. This has been Saints M.O. this year and it takes away the Panthers running game and makes Delhomme a thrower. Advantage Saints. Teams are blitzing Brees more and he has to be more cognizant in the pocket, especially to his back side. New Orleans offense is truly prolific averaging 39 points per game; however they are living in danger committing four turnovers each of the last two games. The Saints are 12-2 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons, but just 3-10 against the number if it is 10 or more.

3DWLine – New Orleans by 17.5
Bookmaker.com Line – New Orleans -13, 51.5

San Diego at N. Y. Giants 4:15E CBS

Two of the preseason favorites in their respective conferences get together when the Giants host the Chargers (2-5 ATS). Neither team has lived up to advanced billing, as both are looking up in the standings in their own divisions, much less conferences. San Diego is 4-3 after beating Oakland, but faces a pair of NFC East powers then a trip to Denver. They are 1-3 SU and ATS on the road vs. NFC foes under coach Norv Turner. The Giants (5-3 SU&ATS) have lost three straight games for the first time since 2006, and are 0-5 ATS in their last five pre-bye week games vs. AFC foes. This starts a stretch of four home games in five contests and the G-Men are 22-9 ATS under Tom Coughlin vs. good offenses gaining 5.65 or more yards per play. New York is 4-1 SU and ATS hosting AFC opposition.

Keys to the Game-

Wasn’t it nice to see LaDainian Tomlinson score a couple of touchdowns last week? Even with that “outburst”, San Diego is still 31st in running the ball, averaging 74.7 YPG against teams that have allowed 114. San Diego has to have even a tolerable running game to help Phillip Rivers, who is third in the league at 8.1 yards per attempt, even without any help. The frequently jaw-jacking Rivers has to like his chances against secondary that has been torched for 262.3 yards the last three weeks. On defense, keep the pressure on Eli Manning to perpetuate his funk. The Chargers are emotional team and feed off it. The Bolts are 11-3 ATS after two or more SU wins and 23-10 ATS on the NFC road.

The Giants are ninth in sacks at 18, but nowhere the previous levels of the last couple of years. New DC Bill Sheridan doesn’t trust he faulty secondary and has been reluctant to blitz, however the results without sending extra attackers hasn’t been encouraging either. The San Diego offensive line has been spotty in protection, your call Bill, as big plays are killing the Giants. Manning has to return to earlier form to make offense click. Unless New York is going to run for 250 yards, they have to have Eli be on target. The Giants are 14-5 ATS after allowing 30 points or more last game.

StatFox Power Line – Giants by 2
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Giants -4.5, 48

Steve Makinen of StatFox contributed to this article.

Cash in on Conference Play

With the first weekend of October arriving, the leaves are or will be turning colors very shortly, offering a wonderful assortment of shades on the color spectrum. This time of year can also add a collection of “Benjamin Franklin’s” for the sports bettor prepared to rake in profits with the correct knowledge.

With the start of the last quarter of the year, this signifies college football going head first into conference action. Certainly, enough teams will bring in a sacrificial lamb for homecoming or between extremely challenging league games, however for the most part, it’s down and dirty with all your rivals.

This is really the coolest aspect of college football, playing within the conference. Unless there are coaching changes, most schools know what to expect from their opponents, facing them year after year and many of the best and most colorful moments the sport has to offer revolve around conference clashes. Teams might wear a special uniform in hopes of firing up the home underdog to pull the upset after losing to an opposing team for a number of years. Or gamesmanship, like Georgia’s coach Mark Richt used against Florida a couple of seasons ago, having his team run on the field after first touchdown of the game and taking penalty, only to have the favor returned in a different manner the following season by Urban Meyer, who used his three remaining time outs with under 90 seconds to play to prolong the Bulldogs 49-10 butt-whipping.

In college football, trends tend to mean more, as teams have confidence or lack thereof playing different universities with the conference. The SEC has the most head-scratching angles that seemingly come true year after year, and every conference has some of their own that tickle the fancy of those wagering on sports.

To create a realistic look at how teams perform in conference contests, went back to the year the “Blair Witch Project” was released (1999) and broke down this theme into different elements.

The first was the best and worst teams against the spread in league action. Boise State backers absolutely love the beginning of WAC play, since it’s a great time to stop worrying about health care issues and instead make and save money for those later years. The Broncos are 51-25 ATS, a delicious 67.1 percent in conference action, which includes 28-9 against the number as home chalk.

Oregon State has filled the coffers of many a supporter in Pac-10 play with 52-32 spread record, with these eager Beavers 21-10 ATS as Corvallis favorites. In the great state of Texas, a couple lesser known teams have cleaned up nicely, with TCU 44-31-1 ATS (including 26-9 ATS as home faves), mostly as favorites. The Rice Owls are spooking 48-30-1 ATS in conference play, including a FBS best 16-2-1 ATS as home underdogs.

Of course all the news is not joyful, as other teams fumble, bumble and stumble in league action. Indiana and covering Big Ten spreads is as bad a match as Lamar Odom and Khloe Kardashian, with the Hoosiers a losing 32-49 ATS. Washington’s USC upset doesn’t change the fact of over a decade of misery at 29-54-2 ATS. Other loathsome schools include Baylor at 28-50-2 ATS, Mississippi State from the SEC at 34-47-1 ATS and the always popular Fresno State, who falls apart faster than Lindsey Lohan in WAC action with 29-49-2 against the spread record.

If you compare the best winners and losers as home favorites, the list is definitely in favor of the latter. Big time programs like Alabama (9-19 ATS) and LSU (13-28 ATS) are diabolical home favorites, based on winning reputations and evil oddsmakers preying on backers appetites for playing them. The aforementioned Huskies of Washington are 3-17-1 and fellow Pac-10 partner Arizona is 4-13 ATS as home favorites. In the betting capital of the United States, Las Vegas, they have the Rebels, who have been dreadful for a long time, sporting 2-12 ATS home favorite record. North Carolina’s blue uniforms may look eye-pleasing, but a 4-13 ATS mark when they wear them as ACC faves is plain ugly.

Thank goodness for schools like Toledo at 22-11 ATS and Hawaii at 19-11 ATS, to carry the torch for quality home favorites.

Every sports bettor from the time they laid five bucks on their very first wager has been told to find the home underdog, giving them two chances to win. The resurgence of Mississippi’s football program means less chances of improving on 13-5 spread record as home underdogs at The Grove. A couple of under the wire schools thrive when catching points on campus, UAB is 11-4-2 ATS and equally sleepy Louisiana Tech is 8-3 versus the oddsmaker. If ever a university had the right nickname for this study assignment, it is Northern Illinois, whose Huskies are 8-2 ATS as home dogs. Minnesota is 6-12 ATS; however that might change with new on-campus digs when in underdog role. Baylor, well it’s going to take awhile for coach Art Briles to change mindset of team that if 9-24-1 ATS as Big 12 home team catching.

It takes the courage of a MMA fighter to want to consistently back a college football road underdog, no matter how points you receive. So many factors are working against you to win. The emotion of the home crowd, the other team being more talented as the linemaker suggests by the spread he releases and trying to avoid feeling sorry for yourselves when things don’t go your way. T. Boone Pickens may be a panjandrum who can afford to build lots of things with his money, but he can’t buy his way out of beloved Cowboys of Oklahoma State having 10-20 ATS road dog record. Connecticut has been very respectable since joining the Big East in football in 2004, but these Huskies have been collared to the porch with 3-12 ATS mark as the road pooch. Houston’s high scoring offense doesn’t play as well on the road as dogs with 7-14 ATS record. The Hoosiers of Indiana need more than a pep talk to improve 13-25 ATS road record in white uniforms. The mighty university from Monroe, LA is not cowardly, with 17-5 ATS pronouncement as visiting underdogs.

There are a few cross-over road dogs that can make cash. Texas A&M may bury Aggies fans with 8-18 ATS record as Big 12 road pups, nevertheless, they are 10-5-2 ATS as home dogs. San Jose State doesn’t gather much attention, especially with 10-20 road figure against the spread, however they are super Spartans as road favorites showing nine covers in 11 tries.

Top ranked Florida is on 6-1 ATS run as a road favorite and they will be on the hunt for more this season. The rest of college football isn’t so lucky and talented. UCLA has been about as overrated as they come in this spot with 4-16 ATS mark. Wake Forest, UTEP and Nebraska are worse than airline baggage fees at 3-8 ATS giving points to home-standing schools. The state of Idaho is a great exporter of potatoes; but the Vandals are stealing profits as road faves, failing to cover 75 percent of the time in a dozen attempts. N.C. State should avoid wearing favorite cap away from Raleigh as 3-12 ATS record proves.

Always make the time to be prepared for conference football success, because capitalism works best with honest hard work and no shortcuts to profits.

Betting ACC football looks like coin flip

Let’s start with the facts, the ACC generously speaking, is lousy. Not in all sports, as North Carolina has done a great job holding up the league’s reputation in college basketball and the conference sent two teams to the College World Series in baseball this past summer. No, were just talking football.

In 2004, the Atlantic Coast Conference university presidents saw the money the SEC and the Big 12 were making holding a conference championship game in football and the interest and buzz it created nationally. Not afraid to throw around a little cash, along with promises, the ACC raided the Big East and took their three strongest football programs (all for the sake of higher learning of course) and rebuilt a the league into a dozen teams. Miami and Virginia Tech joined in 2004 and Boston College followed a year later. A new “super” conference was born, right?

Well not exactly. Along the way a few stumbling blocks occurred. While the Big East additions were supposed to enhance competition, they weren’t supposed to dominate. Of the four ACC title games played so far, five representatives have been from the Big East, lead by Virginia Tech three times. In fairness, things do move a little slower in the South. When Florida State joined the ACC, they won their first 29 conference contests and 47 of 48.

Because of the success the Mountain West Conference has enjoyed, speculation has been written and discussed about adding them to the BCS (oh that will happen) or possibly dropping a weaker league and adding the MWC to the mix. (Not likely)

If for example that were to occur how does the ACC standup?

Since reshuffling the deck in 2004-05, the ACC is 134-96, 58.2 percent straight up against D-1 or FBS teams in non-conference games. That’s just below average compared to the other five BCS conferences and the Mountain West. For the sports bettor, the ACC isn’t an acceptable wager with a record of 109-119-2 against the spread in those encounters. That’s 52.2 percent on the losing side of wagers, not including adding the vig.

The news is even worse when you consider over the last three years and the beginning of this season these 12 teams win only 44 percent of the time against the aforementioned other conferences.

What is the problem with the ACC, it’s actually two-fold. First, the school presidents fully expected adding three new teams and a little magic dust and suddenly it’s the SEC. The ACC is a basketball conference. Most schools are willing to pay decent money to coach players in short pants, but haven’t shown that same willingness on the gridiron.

This leads to the quality of coaches in charge of these programs. Bobby Bowden is not the same as he was 10 to 20 years ago. Frank Beamer is still elite head coach, however after, not much Hall of Fame material. Tom O’Brien, Jim Grobe, Butch Davis and Paul Johnson all fit in the “good” category with Johnson the most likely to reach greater heights. Veteran coaches like Al Groh and David Cutcliffe will get the most out of what they can recruit by academic standards at Virginia and Duke and Ralph Freidgen wins enough to keep the alumni off his back. At this point Randy Shannon, Frank Spaziani and Dabo Swinney all have incomplete grades and none were costly hires.

With the ACC about to really delve into league play what should the sports bettor expect in balanced league lacking true star power?

The game of football has evolved to where so much importance is placed on the quarterback. The two best veteran quarterbacks are Riley Skinner at Wake Forest and Thaddeus Lewis at Duke, however neither will be making a living at that position once their eligibility is completed. The league’s future might be in its youthful signal callers, with the likes of Jacory Harris at Miami, Russell Wilson at N.C. State and Christian Ponder at Florida State. Each has the skill to be complete player and should only get better with proper work ethic and talent around them. Tyrod Taylor and Josh Nesbitt are both exciting players who are mostly one-dimensional players. The truth is the league reflects the quarterback play at this time, rather generic and predicated on youth without the infrastructure to protect on off days.

In breaking down conference play over the last five seasons it’s about as expected. Virginia Tech is 34-9 and 29-14 ATS when ACC title games are counted. Florida State is 24-17 and 17-24 ATS, being overvalued in many cases and Georgia Tech is 25-17, but only 20-22 ATS with no distinguishing attributes.

The Wolfpack at N.C. State is 17-23 and .500 against the spread. We’ll have to watch if they can continue 4-0 ATS home underdog mark from last season. Boston College is 21-14 and 17-18 ATS and actually has a better SU record in there four years in the ACC compared to the previous last four years in the supposed weaker Big East.

The next three teams are long time members stuck in neutral. North Carolina is 18-22 and 20-20 ATS and Maryland is very similar at 18-22 SU & ATS. Clemson is 23-18 and 19-22 ATS and is a much better home dog than home favorite in ACC action.

Wake Forest is 20-21 SU & ATS and is dastardly 3-8 ATS as away favorite the last decade. Miami is 22-20 and 18-24 ATS in league play, sporting 4-11 ATS record in home games. Virginia is positive 21-19 and 22-18 ATS, being a solid wager at home and wobbly road team. The Dukies are ghastly 2-38 (its true), however is frequently overlooked as doormat of the ACC and is 19-21 against the oddsmakers.

It would be a pleasure to suggest a certain style of wagering in the ACC, like playing all underdogs, however the facts don’t support it. Instead, like the many roads that go thru the Carolina’s, follow the yellow signs with the wiggly picture. SLOW – Proceed with Caution.

Trying to stay hot (even in Phoenix) on a Wednesday

A sweet 3-0 day helps building our momentum. Today’s Best System is 88.8 percent, but could be nerve-racking with pitching matchup. Top Trend looks like blowout, will it be? Sal is on another sensational role; check his Best Bet for Wednesday. Good Luck

What I found today – http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/9956006/The-world-according-to-Favre

Now on Twitter at: twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST all underdogs with a money line of +150 or more who are hitting .200 or worse over their last three games, against opponent with a torrid starting pitcher with WHIP of 1.000 or less the last five times he toed the slap. This will be intriguing with Lee and Haren, but system shows 40-5 record since 2005 and suggests play against the Snakes.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Tampa Bay is 12-1 in home games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.70 to 5.20, winning by 2.8 runs per game.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Sal was 3-1 yesterday including another winner here. Today he expects the Angels to be heavenly, even in Cleveland.

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On Sunday Exploration for Winners

Another disappointing 1-2 day, with Justin Verlander being vulcanized. Let’s try and find three winners starting with Alan’s Free Play our West. The Top Trend follows the Pirates exploits as larger underdogs and the Best System is 42-6! Good Luck

What I realized today- Since starting the year 13-0, the Los Angeles Dodgers are 23-21 at home. The LLC has seven members on Buffalo and two on Tennessee in the HOF preseason game. (I'll pass thank you) Jay Culter is showing his continued immaturity saying Bears fans are better than Broncos fans and then running away from comment with all kinds of spin control.

Now on Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs like the Cincinnati Reds with a money line of +150 or more, who are cold hitting team, batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games, against opponent with a scorching starting pitcher with WHIP of 1.000 or less over his last five starts. This sizzling system is 42-6, 87.5 percent since 2007.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Pittsburgh Pirates are 1-14 as a home underdog of +150 to +200 over the last two seasons, losing by enormous four runs per game.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Alan of the LCC nailed his top play yesterday and likes the Angels to round up the Rangers.

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Looking to start the week right

We’ve been a little ordinary lately with our plays, time to pick up the pace. We’ll start with 40-3 System, which is awfully good. The Top Trends checks in how the O’s might do in Motown. I’ll dole out another Free Play chasing success. Good Luck

What I learned yesterday – Melky Cabrera's ninth-inning triple completed the first cycle by a Yankee since Tony Fernandez in 1995. The only American League team with a longer current cycle drought than the one the Yankees just ended is Kansas City. No player has cycled for the Royals since George Brett in 1990. Cabrera's cycle was the fifth in the major leagues this season and the fourth that was completed with the toughest of the four elements, a triple. Michael Cuddyer, Ian Kinsler and Orlando Hudson each finished a 2009 cycle with a three-base hit; Jason Kubel capped his with a home run.

Now on Twitter at:www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST all underdogs like Milwaukee, with a money line of +150 or more, who are batting chilly .200 or worse over their last three games, against opponent with starting pitcher who has WHIP of 1.000 or less over his last five starts. Give me a high five if you like 40-3 record, 93 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Baltimore Orioles are 2-15 in road games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.00 or better this season, losing by 3.3 runs per game.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Nailed my play here and like Pittsburgh to keep it going for me.

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Line them up on a Saturday

A 2-1 Friday record brings us to 173-111-3, 60.9 percent, more than holding our own going over four months. Today’s Best System is 37-8 in the American League. The Top Trend looks at a total following a pitcher who has pitched like a king. The Free Plays are on 16-2 run. Good Luck

What I learned yesterday - Jason Schmidt and three relievers held the Braves off the scoreboard as the Dodgers took the opener of their series in Atlanta, 5-0. Believe it or not, that was the Dodgers' first shutout win in Atlanta in more than 20 years - since Ramon Martinez blanked the Braves, 7-0, on June 5, 1989. That span of 20 years, 56 days is the longest in National League history without a road shutout win by one team against another. (Thanks, Elias)

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Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher like the Royals, who average 0.9 or less home runs per game, against a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less dingers a start, with an artic starting pitcher who has WHIP 2.000 or higher over his last three starts. Since 2005, this system is 37-8, 82.2 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Felix Hernandez and Seattle are 14-2 UNDER on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 over the last two seasons, with the average scored totaling 6.2 runs per game.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Kyle of the Left Coast Connection expects the Yankees to turn Chicago into a pair of dirty old sox.

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Taken down The Man this Wednesday

Got blistered pretty good with 1-3 day. Hopefully we can climb back on the winning bandwagon, with a quality system that is 80.7 percent. This hopefully will lead to Top Trend being a winner from a top-line hurler. A new member of the LCC offers his first ever Free Play, hope it’s a winner. Good Luck and a lot of hope I’m asking for.

What I though yesterday – I’m glad Brett Favre decided to retire. I had the pleasure of watching him twice a year or more in person for much of his career and he gave me plenty of thrills. Though as adults, we don’t have many sports heroes like when we were kids, he’s probably the closest thing to one for me in my adult life. The last several years of shanigans (my opinion) have placed a foul taste in my mouth and others about No. 4 and I’ve had no trouble ripping him for what he’s done, in spite of having several publicly painful things happen to him. I now applaud him for stepping aside and instead selling for Sears and other opportunities that will come his way.

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Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST home underdogs like Arizona, with a money line of +125 to +175, who are typical NL offensive team scoring 4.3 to 4.8 runs a game, against a capable starter (ERA of 3.70 or less), after a loss by two runs or less. This system is 21-5 since 2005, 80.7 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) There are trends today with higher win percentages, but this one caught my eye. Roy Halladay and Toronto are 41-4 vs. AL teams scoring 4.2 or less runs a game on the season, winning by 2.9 runs per game.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Kyle of the LCC is 8-3 the last three days and believes the Mets with will keep playing well, and clip Colorado.

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Monday, Monday I still love that day

An almost odd losing day gives us 166-104-3, 61.4 percent mark over three and half months. With yesterday killer system a failure, we’ll try and come right back with another that is 93.2 percent. If you like Felix Hernandez as much as I do, you at least have to pause with Trend that is out there tonight. Free Plays are broiling and Mark has one for tonight. Good Luck.

Activity Report – No baseball viewing or listening tonight, its ZZ Top and Aerosmith on the west side of Phoenix. Temperature at show time should be around 109, that’s degrees.

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Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250, who couldn’t break a air-filled plastic bag with a bat, hitting .250 or worse over their last 20 games, against opponent with a molten starting pitcher, with WHIP of 1.000 or less over his last five starts. Pittsburgh goes against Tim Lincecum for a system that is 55-4, 93.2 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) This won’t be official play because King Felix is pitching for Seattle, nonetheless it does make it a bit scary to support the Seattle when they are 0-18 after allowing 10 runs or more. On the record, Philadelphia is the play since they are 10-1 in road games after two or more consecutive Overs this season, winning by 2.2 runs per game.

Free Baseball Selection -3) The Free Play is 14-2 the last 16 days and Mark of the Left Coast Connection was 6-1 this weekend and likes Texas to tame the Tigers.

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Trying to catch the wave on a Saturday

Missed out on perfect day, but what the heck, 2-1 brings home the money right? Sal continues his amazing work and has another top play for Free. The Top Trend is another reverse perfect play. The Best System is in the AL and is 57-14. Good Luck.

What I learned yesterday – Brett Anderson struck out the side in order in the first inning of his loss at Yankee Stadium, getting Derek Jeter and Johnny Damon swinging, and Mark Teixeira looking. Anderson was the first rookie to strike out the first three Yankees batters of a game in the Bronx since July 17, 1999, when Atlanta's Odalis Perez K'd Chuck Knoblauch, Jeter and Paul O'Neill. The rest of that game did not go well for Perez: he took the loss after allowing eight runs in four-and-two-thirds innings. (Thanks Elias)

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Free Baseball System-1) PLAY ON home favorites like Seattle with a money line of -150 or more, averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game on the season, after a loss by four runs or more. This system is delivering winning 80.3 percent of the time with 57-14 record.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Baltimore Orioles are 0-11in road games vs. a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season, losing by an average of 2.9 runs per game.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Sal’s was 3-1 yesterday and had another Free Winner and he’s playing Boston on the run line against bumbling Baltimore.

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Seeking Fabulous Friday

Hotter than a handful of jalapeños, we go back to back 3-0. We’ll go for a trio of treys to start the weekend. Our opening salvo is a Best System play that is 37-6. One pitcher and his team are a collective 8-49 surveying a few Top Trends. Our Free Plays are 12-1 since last week and Sal goes for six straight. Good Luck.

Thoughts on Today – How sweet was Mark Beuhrle’s perfecto? What an amazing catch to boot, given the circumstances. Went to Snakes and Pirates game last night (I know, what a sorry existence) to see Dan Haren pitch. He wasn’t close to having his best stuff, but at least got run support, just not enough to give him the win soon enough. Granted it was the Bucs pitchers, nonetheless, you can see why people shouldn’t completely give up on Arizona. There are talented players to build around for the future.

Did you realize Oakland's Brett Anderson hasn't allowed a run in three starts? He's at Yankee Stadium tonight.

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Free Baseball System-1) PLAY ON home favorites like Boston, with a money line of -125 to -175, who are pedestrian AL offensive team scoring 4.7 to 5.2 runs a game, against a decent starting pitcher with ERA of 4.20 or less, after a combined score of four runs or less. No its not as good as yesterday’s easy winner, but no whining about 86 percent system. (37-6)

Free Baseball Trend -2) It's just one play, but I found this fasinating. Zack Duke and Pittsburgh are 0-11 vs. teams whose hitters strike out seven or more times a game in the second half of the season. In addition, they are 6-24 as a road underdog of +100 to +150 and 2-14 on Friday's.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Sal’s 2-0 performance yesterday has him at 22-5. He's on board with Atlanta to make the Brewers punch-drunk.

New StatFox Football Annual on Sale – A must for Every Sports Bettor – If you wonder if this publication is worth the money, read this review. http://sportsgambling.about.com/od/ncaafootballbetting/fr/statfox09.htm

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Super Saturday at 3DW

Another winning day has us on 13-4 run here at 3Daily Winners. I personally have been hot, hitting seven straight here and at season-high for units won on the season on my own personal plays. You can get all my plays for Free by signing up on mailing list. Today’s top trend is perfect and goes up against hot Houston pitching staff. No outstanding systems for Saturday, however did find one that is 7-1 in 2009. Good Luck.

What I learned yesterday: Can things get any worse for the New York Mets? Manager Jerry Manuel's team managed only two hits in its 11-0 loss in Atlanta on Friday night. It's only the third time in Mets history that they were shut out by more than 10 runs, while producing two-or-fewer hits. The other instances were both against the Pirates at Shea Stadium - in 1966 and 1984. Thanks Elias

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Free Baseball System-1) PLAY OVER on all teams against the total who are a weak AL offensive team like Kansas City, averaging 4.2 runs or less a game, against a team with a solid bullpen (ERA of 3.75 or less), with a starting pitcher whose throws more than 6.5 innings per start. This non-qualifying system is 51-18, 73.9 percent since 2005, but 7-1 this season.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Dodgers of Mannywood are 9-0 after two or more consecutive losses this season winning by an average of 4.6 runs per game.

Free Baseball Selection -3) This is getting scary good (love the looks of wagering accounts) and I have Texas to maul Minnesota.

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Baseball Betting in the Second Half

With the All-Star game behind us and three well-deserved days away from wagering on Major League Baseball, it’s time to get back in the saddle and continue the delightful daily grind. If you have had the good fortune of making a solid profit like this reporter betting baseball, it is time to consider a few adjustments for the remainder of the regular season. What could change in three days with no games played, a lot!

Playing Favorites is more costly

Remember when the New England Patriots were in the midst of unbeaten regular season and were 9-0 and 8-1 ATS? The very next week oddsmakers had enough of squares and sharps kicking their behinds and made the Pats 16-point road favorites at Buffalo. Their thinking was you want to play them, go ahead, beat this number and it continued the rest of the season. Though, not to that extreme because of pitching matchups, the same thing occurs in baseball the rest of the season. Boston, the Yankees and the Dodgers will see ever increasing prices if they continue to win, making them poor risk-reward choices. The same will be true on the opposite end of the spectrum, with baneful teams like Washington and San Diego, helping inflate numbers of their opponents.

My advise on money line wagering is stick to certain limit (I use -175, normally about -155 otherwise) on favorites, since virtually anything above that number means you have to win two games for every loss.

Find bad teams playing well

It’s impossible to determine at the moment, however a few sub .500 teams are going to play unexpectedly well for long stretches and can be real bankroll builders. The absolute best recent example is the 2005 Houston Astros. At the end of July, Houston was 47-56 and going nowhere. Phil Garner was brought in as interim manager and nothing happen at first, then the Astros sky-rocketed, winning 42 of last 59 games and made the playoffs as wild card team before losing in the World Series to the Chicago White Sox. Keep antennae on high alert for this opportunity.

Ride Streaks Good and Bad

Just like in surfing, it’s not easy to catch the right wave. Too often, we as sports bettors are leery of streaks. We pay attention when a team wins or loses five in a row and often lack the confidence to “ride the tide” figuring the game we choose will be the loser. I’m not advocating “chase systems”, rather finding teams that have won possibly three in a row, are scoring runs like people flocking to a Harry Potter movie opening weekend and the right pitcher is starting. Play that team and who knows, they could have streak of seven or eight wins and you profited each time. One other piece of advise, think about playing that team one more time after a loss, since like many streaks, its not always consecutive wins, but winning nine of 11 or 12 of 15, those add up quickly also. Do the 2007 Colorado Rockies jog the memory, winning 11 in a row and 13 of 14 starting in mid-September? The exact method works for Play Against teams on losing binges.
Bullpens still matter

As innings start to mount on starting pitchers, the significance of the bullpen increases. Teams that have their house in order can see ERA of bullpen drop a half a run or more from here on out. This collection of relievers can provide a number of winning bets, saving small leads or games that are tied in the middle innings. Watch these numbers carefully.

Follow home/road records

By now, most teams have set up a pattern of playing tangible baseball home or away. The Red Sox, Dodgers, Tigers and Giants are all strong home wagers, while the Phillies, Rockies and both Los Angeles teams are the most profitable bets as visitors. Knowing this enhances chances to cash winning tickets more frequently.

September can be scary

For most sports bettors, once football starts, baseball is either finished or put on the back-burner. This is not a bad strategy for a number of reasons. Start with what teams care about winning and those waiting for the season to end. Contending teams offer little value unless they are playing each other, which is more a crap shoot late in the season. Expanded rosters, means more research to check who is or isn’t playing and being unfamiliar with called-up pitchers adds to the quandary.

Don’t blindly bet just to do so, since a bankroll that took five months to build can disappear quickly in 30 days. Be extremely judicious and only play games you feel are next to “locks”. Otherwise, set aside a few days to do baseball exclusively. An extremely successful bettor friend of mine bets baseball just on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday in September, giving him what he feels is ample time to prepare for football weekends.

Cleveland woes could continue against rugged system

When last season looked like a washout for the Cleveland Indians, they did what they could to trade off assets like C. C. Sabathia and Casey Blake, in looking towards the future. The way Cleveland has played in 2009; it’s hard to say what they will do for an encore after being so miserable.

The Indians offense by all appearances is still productive, ranking sixth in runs scored at 5.2. The Tribe’s team batting average is ordinary at .261 and they have been slumping of late, hitting under .250 as club the last 20 games, despite hanging 15 runs on Oakland last Friday.

While some will quote baseball statistics and point out – what you see is not what you get – the fact is Cleveland pitching shows precisely what it has to offer.

The Tribe allows 5.5 runs per game, same as Washington, making this tandem the two worst in baseball. Cleveland hurlers surrender the second most free passes at 3.9 per game, which is huge problem if you concede 9.8 hits per contest (29th), meaning opposing team have almost 14 base-runners each night, not including errors, placing tremendous pressure on the offense to score six runs every contest at a minimum.

If starting pitchers David Huff, Tomo Ohka, Carl Pavano, Jeremy Sowers and tonight’s starter Aaron Laffey (3-1, 3.93 ERA) don’t exactly seem impressive; think about what hitters in the opposite clubhouse are dreaming of. Adding fuel to this combustible situation is the Indians bullpen, which has 5.13 ERA, 12-17 record and paid closer Kerry Wood (he’d be fired as car salesman for not closing) leads a pen that is 50-50 (14 of 28) in save opportunities this season. It’s no wonder Cleveland is 33-51 and lost 22.8 units.

The Indians after losing 10-6 to AL Central division adversary Chicago last evening will face an aging pitcher who likely salvaged his career in Charlotte of all places. Jose Contreras (3-7, 4.84) at age 37, probably can figure his best days are behind him and it looked like it might be way behind him after starting 0-5 with an ERA over eight, placing him behind the 8-ball so to speak.

He went to Triple-A Charlotte, worked on his mechanics and rewound his career. Since returning to the White Sox (43-30, +3.6 units), Contreras is 3-2 with a sparkling 2.17 ERA in five starts. He’s been part of the Sox surge which has led to 12 wins in last 16 outings. “I’ve got it back,” said Contreras, when asked about 3-0 record in last four starts.

With Cleveland pitching in ruins, the batters not hitting as well and having to tackle a starting pitcher in a zone, this sets up as awful situation for the Tribe and DiamondSportsbook.com has the Indians as +130 underdogs.

Play Against road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher, who are cold hitting team - batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games, against opponent with a hot starting pitcher, with WHIP of 1.000 or less over his last five starts.

This system comes up fairly frequently and is 110-34 since 2005, 76.4 percent. In 2009, the numbers have improved slightly at 12-3, adding even more confidence. And speaking of confidence that is exactly what White Sox hitters have after posting big crooked numbers at US Cellular Field, with 17-4 mark after scoring nine or more runs. Even more impressive for the Pale Hose is 13-1 record at home after a game where they had six or more extra base hits over the last two seasons.

For the sports bettor looking for one big play tonight, this might be the one at affordable number.

MLB teams try to capitalize before the All-Star Break

With the 2009 All-Star game in St. Louis next Tuesday, several teams will be doing their best to position themselves to close with a flourish before the break. A number of teams can set themselves up in good spots to start the second half of the season by playing well or be undermined with doubt if they don’t play as good as they had hoped. Here is a look at four specific teams with intriguing schedules before taking a few days off to start next week.

St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals have been in and out of first place the last couple of weeks in the National League Central and can create distance amongst its fellow rivals with a strong week of play. It won’t be easy for St. Louis, as they continue nine-game road trip against the teams in the division that are their closet competitors. Fresh off a series triumph in Cincinnati, the Redbirds are 21-19 as visitors, good for +1.1 units. Manager Tony LaRussa’s club has built a little momentum, winning four of five, after closing out June out with six losses in seven previous. Their mission starts in Milwaukee, with a three-game set. The Brewers come home after losing three of four to the Cubs and have been weaker than expected at Miller Park with 22-18 record. The Cardinals have won two of three in Milwaukee this season. After finishing up with the Brew Crew, they take the short jaunt down I-94 to Wrigley Field for three with the Cubs. Though no division title is going to be wrapped up before the All-Star game, a 4-2 week or better by the Cardinals provides a little working margin to start second half.

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs were supposed to run away with the NL Central, but because of injuries, lack of consistent hitting and shaky late inning relief, Chicago is looking up at other teams within the division. The Cubs bats have shown signs of coming around, especially at home, where they are 24-14 (+3.7 units). The North-Siders are respectable fifth in ERA in the National League and have 50 quality starts, the most in the senior circuit. They are matching up with Atlanta presently and after a day off Thursday, play host to rival St. Louis. Though the Cubs have been mediocre all season, a potential 7-3 homestand has them right in the thick of division race. Series losses to Atlanta or the Cards, only raises more questions about how good this year’s Cubs team really is.

Tampa Bay Rays

The defending American League champions gladly return home after lost weekend wipeout in Texas facing the Rangers. Tampa Bay is fighting to close the gap between themselves, Boston and the Yankees. The Rays are in potentially outstanding situation to do just that with six home games, in which they should be favored in each one. Tampa Bay is 26-13 (+6.7 units) at Tropicana Field, leading baseball in runs scored at home (5.8 per game), and has Toronto and Oakland coming in. The Blue Jays and A’s both have losing records on the road this season. Tampa Bay has juicy home numbers that have any sports bettor salivating. The Rays are 89-40 at home the last two years and are 54-19 against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175. When favored as -150 or more on the ML at home, Joe Maddon’s squad is terrific 47-11. A 5-1 week gives the Rays back the momentum, as they try and hunt down the AL East favorites.

Los Angeles Angels

The Angels have won 16 of last 22 games to be back where most thought they would be in the AL West. They are matched up with other division front-runner Texas to start the week, with the series winner emerging as first place leader come Thursday. Los Angeles leads the American League in hitting at over .280 and plays a style of baseball that is reminiscent to craps. For those not familiar with the game, a point is established and many try and wager on the five remaining numbers to win money and build up bankrolls. The Angels play in much the same fashion, getting a couple of base-runners to start and cashing in with base-hits that keep the Halos runners moving on the base paths and runs being compiled. Besides being tested by Texas, the Yankees come to town for weekend series, having won 10 of 12 contests. Though starting rotation lacks more familiar names, skipper Mike Scioscia has gotten by and previously horrific bullpen is improving, getting Halos back to among the best in the American League. A 4-2 week against still competition keeps momentum building.