MLB 's Best and Worst Pitcher in April

Gave our friend Marc Lawrence a call to talk a little baseball and see what he is up to with college basketball windowing closing. We got talking about the importance of starting pitchers and bullpens when it comes to wagering on the big leagues. We both agreed you can’t win the pennant in April but you can certainly lose it with a sluggish start and weaknesses exposed.

At Marc’s Playbook.com, he has for the last several years compiled a list of good and bad pitchers per month and he shared that list with me. Below is the complete list, along with why each of them performs in this manner.

APRIL GOOD MONTH PITCHERS:
Beckett, Josh 10-4
Buehrle, Mark 10-3
Greinke, Zach 10-5
Hernandez, Felix 10-4
Hudson, Tim 8-3
Looper, Braden 12-3
Matsuzaka, Daisuke 8-4
Moyer, Jamie 10-5
Penny, Brad 10-4
Saunders, Joe 11-3
Wainwright, Adam 11-4
Webb, Brandon 11-1

BAD MONTH PITCHERS:
Arroyo, Bronson 5-10
Zito, Barry 4-10

Arroyo – Throws strikes and changes speeds on his fastball continually. Likes to mix in changeup and eats up a number of innings. He is more a feel pitcher and with the colder weather in the opening month, the baseball tends to be slicker which doesn’t give him as much command, explaining his slow starts.

Beckett- Power pitcher with drop and drive delivery. His strength is low to mid-90’s fastball with one of the best curveball’s in baseball.

Buehrle – Doesn’t impress many radar guns topping out around 87 MPH, but is expert at working both sides of the plate and like most left-handers has tailing fastball to right-hand batters. Changeup and slow curve makes fastball appear quicker.

Greinke – Skill and ability finally meshed as Greinke started last season 6-0 in 2-009 with late-1960’s Bob Gibson-like like ERA of 0.40. Tremendous arm, with a real feel for how to pitch, who put it all together to be AL Cy Young winner in 2009 on a bad ballclub.

Hernandez –Still only 23 years old, King Felix has mid-90 fastball and superior breaking pitches. He also a heavy sinker that batters have said is like “swinging and hitting a bowling ball”. That’s a pitch most hitter’s don’t want to swing at when the temps are in the 30’s and 40’s.

Hudson – Coming off Tommy John surgery, interesting to see how he starts.

Looper- Last reported as free agent.

Matsuzaka – Has neck injury rehabbing.

Moyer – Internet reports of Moyer being a rookie learning to pitch from Christy Mathewson (google this name) are unfound, as the lefty continues to confound batters with slow, slower and slower yet pitches, being able to spot them where needed.

Penny –The big right-hander could not have found a better place to resurrect his career. Working with pitching guru Dave Duncan should be a blessing for this flyball pitcher. Duncan will work with Penny not to overthrow and improve slow breaking pitches.

Saunders – Lost ability to work down and inside on right-hand batters and was tattooed frequently last season. Historically, fast starter and needs to for confidence reason on Angels club that needs him more this season.

Wainwright – The last two seasons has been among the best pitchers in all of baseball. Helps himself by being good hitter and won Golden Glove for fielding.

Webb – Out indefinitely coming back from shoulder surgery.

Zito – Similar to Arroyo, doesn’t throw hard, but not as good at spotting pitches. Has big loopy curveball that is batting practice material if it doesn’t break to the knees. Can sail along for four innings and give up a five-spot in a manner of minutes.

Hump Day Action

Like I said, baseball is in its “doesn’t make sense” period and we were 1-2 yesterday and easily could have been 0-3. The Best System would have essentially been a repeat of yesterday, so instead we look ahead to college football with 26-5 system. The Top Trend is near perfect in tonight Angels/Red Sox meeting. Today I just offer information for Free Picks. Good Luck

What I learned today: Barry Zito had nine strikeouts in his win over the Rockies, including three against Todd Helton. The only other pitchers to strike out Helton three times in one game were Darren Dreifort (June 13, 1998) and Dontrelle Willis (May 6, 2005). Thanks Elias

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Free Football System-1) All the best systems of 80 percent or higher involve the Dodgers over Pittsburgh again. Instead of being redundant, we’ll look to Saturday where we look to PLAY AGAINST road teams like UL –Lafayette, off an upset win as a home underdog, with 16 total starters returning. Dating back nine years, this system is 26-5 ATS, 83.9 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Joe Saunders and the Angels are 11-1 after two or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons.

Free Baseball Pick -3) No official play today, with most guys still betting baseball hanging around .500 the last week or so. From the Left Coast Connection, Florida was chosen by 75 % over the Cards. In tonight’s big games, Colorado rates 55 % and the Angels 71 percent.

Check out Guaranteed Football Picks for this next week. We were 3-0 in the NFL and Paul Buck was 7-4 for the entire week.

The Platinum Sheet doing big numbers in New York area with satisfied customers.

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MLB Series Wagering- Dodgers at Angels

The I-5 series moves south, down to Orange County, with the Dodgers taking on the Angels. Without question this is the best series of the weekend with a lot of reasons to follow the action. The team actually from Los Angeles has the best record in the Major Leagues at 44-23 and has garnered +17.3 units of profit for backers. The L.A. area club who plays in Anaheim has gotten hot, winning six in a row and seven of nine, to crawl within 1.5 games of Texas for the AL West lead.

The Dodgers are averaging five runs per game and that numbers figures only to rise once Manny Ramirez returns to the lineup. Manager Joe Torre has been fortunate that Juan Pierre had step up his game so well and they have won 11 of last 15 road games, thanks to better than expected starting pitching.

The Halos (35-29, +7.8 units) have been tearing the cover off the ball during this win streak, batting .350 as a team, giving them highest batting average in baseball at .282. (Though 10th in runs scored) They have accomplished this in spite of not having all their big sluggers in the lineup like Torii Hunter, Vladimir Guerrero and Bobby Abreu, who have missed time with various ailments. The Angels are 8-1 interleague action and 32-13 against the National League the last three seasons.

The Dodgers will send their ace Chad Billingsley (9-3, 2.72 ERA) to the mound in the opener. Billingsley has exceeded expectations tossing at least six innings in 13 of 14 starts and lasting at least seven innings in eight of those starts. The right-hander has allowed more than four runs just once this season and the Dodgers are 11-3 when he’s been given the starting assignment. The visitor has opened as -107 money line favorite with total of Un8 at DiamondSportsbook.com and they are 47-19 in that role.

Joe Saunders (7-4, 3.66 ERA) might have something to say about that for the Angels. Saunders went through a rugged stretch recently where he allowed 13 runs in 18 innings, but he was back on his game against San Diego, pitching 8 1/3 innings surrendering one run in 9-1 wipeout. Saunders and the Halos are 16-3 versus team averaging less than a home run per game and 10-3 as underdogs of +150 or less.

The difference could turn on the Dodgers ability to hit lefties, with 15-6 record this season.

Game 1 Edge: Dodgers

Game 2 of the series will have a very unusual flavor, as brothers will meet for the first time in their lives. Jered Weaver (7-2, 2.08) will face his older brother Jeff (3-1, 3.72), who is expected to make first start since May 20, filling in for other Dodger starters on the DL. “That'll be weird," Jered Weaver said. "I just wish we could face each other in the batter's box. That would be fun."

Jered has matured into the type of pitcher many in the Angels organization had expected. He’s been brutal on right-hand hitters, with them batting .155 and loves pitching at the Big A, with microscopic 1.01 ERA. Manager Mike Scioscia has enjoyed sending the younger Weaver to the mound, since they have won his last five outings and they are 21-8 at home when Jered is the starter. Look for the Angels to be decided favorite with Jered Weaver 3-1 in five career outings against the Dodgers with a 1.59 ERA.

Game 2 Edge: Angels

The series finale is the ESPN Sunday night game and Torre has seen plenty of the team from Anaheim to know what to expect. "They are getting it together. They are intimidating; they can beat you in a lot of different ways. We don't have the speed they have. We bite and scratch, but [Mike Scioscia's] club is pretty much bred to do that. They keep plugging in another fast guy. I really respect what Mike has done in the years he's been there. You knew from the get-go what kind of club he wanted to have. You know as a catcher the kind of club that makes you uncomfortable, and that's the kind of club that makes you uncomfortable."

Torre of course has plenty of faith in his own club and will send Clayton Kershaw (3-5, 4.13) to the mound. Kershaw bounced bad from his worst outing of the year, shutting out Oakland for 5 2/3 innings, striking out eight. Coming into this series, the Dodgers are 32-16 in night games and 13-7 as underdogs. If the game is close, the team from northern L.A. has superior bullpen and is 16-6 in one run games.

The Angels will use veteran John Lackey (2-2, 6.10) who might being rounding into form after starting the season on the DL. Lackey hurled seven strong innings against San Francisco, ringing up 10 K’s and not walking a batter. He had his best fastball of the season and curveball really had downward motion. If the Halos bats stay hot, Lackey could improve on 5-1 record with a 1.50 ERA against the other Angelinos.

Game 3 Edge: Angels

Though the Dodgers are the better team, they have played with a mental block in this Los Angeles turf war. Since 2001, those in Dodger blue have won only six times in 24 tries near Disneyland. Based on how this series has played out over the years and the Angels playing best baseball of the season right now, will back them this weekend, looking for a second straight winner and working back towards .500.

DiamondSportsbook.com series odds: Dodgers +125, Angels -155

3DW Pick: Los Angeles (The Angels)

2009 Record – 3-6

Keeping track of the Numbers Game

Every now and again it is a good time to take stock of things around us. Though we feel everything is under control, sometimes our perceptions don’t deal with the facts and we go around thinking we have the right information, when we really don’t. Decided to take some time and do some digging and see what can be found in the three major sports that are playing presently.

NBA

Wagering on the playoffs tends to be unsettling for most sports bettors. Starting with you can watch virtually every game and just have so few contests to take into account for, it’s as easy as grabbing that one more piece of pizza, when you have already had one too many. It can be a quixotic crusade if one gets upside down or if things go well, a real confidence booster.

Home Favorites against the spread have been about as ordinary has the come with 24-25-1 ATS record, with the chalk 36-14 straight up. The totals have shown a modest lean to the OVER side with 28-22 mark.

Road Favorites are 7-3 and 5-4-1 ATS and have played UNDER in eight of 10 meetings, including 6-0 UNDER in the Eastern Conference.

NHL

As usual, home ice is not especially important in the Stanley Cup playoffs, particularly early. The difference in talent between a high seed and low seed is not as dramatic as what you will find in professional basketball. Overall, home favorites are 29-21, with teams in the Western Conference doing a better job at 15-8.

Because postseason hockey is less free-wheeling, the UNDER is often a solid play and again has been in 2009 with 26-19-5 record.

Big home favorites (-200 or higher) have shown a real division by conferences thus far. East home faves are 4-0 and 3-1 OVER, while out West, they are losing proposition at 4-3 and are 5-1-1 UNDER.

Road favorites are 9-6 and the totals have been down the middle in these contests with 5-5-5 showing.

MLB

Toronto and the Los Angeles Dodgers have been the best teams in respective leagues to this point and winning wagers. The Blue Jays are 22-12, +9.4 units and the Dodgers are 22-11, +8.8 units. These teams are not flukes either, with Toronto +50 run differential and L.A. +57, each easily the best in their leagues.

In trying to spot frauds or clubs on the rise, its noteworthy the New York Yankees have allowed the most runs in baseball at 6.2 per game, including seven or more in 12 different games.

If Oakland can find offense, they might make large improvement. The A’s are only -10 run differential and are third in the American League in runs allowed at 131. The bullpen has been tremendous with 2.82 ERA, however scoring only 4.17 runs a game leaves at 11-18. They have been particularly vulnerable against left-hand starters with 3-11 mark.

Maybe the numbers will even out later, but Colorado is 12-18, despite a +3 run difference. The Rockies have been bitten by the one run bug, with 1-8 record in close encounters thus far in 2009.

If you don’t have MLB.TV, you are missing something as a sports bettor. Zack Greinke suffered his first loss of the season at the Big A in Anaheim Saturday, losing 1-0 to Joe Saunders and the Angels. Greinke went into that game just the third pitcher in baseball history to start 6-0 with ERA under 0.50 (Fernando Valenzuela and Walter Johnson the others). Though the 25-year old didn’t have his best stuff of the season, he allowed four hits over eight innings, with five strikeouts and no walks. Not giving up a free pass was particularly impressive, as he went to three balls with a number of Angels hitters.

Saunders was even more outstanding, yielding no runs on five hits, with six K’s and one walk in complete game shutout.

Greinke gave up double to Gary Mathews Jr. and two sacrifices later, Saunders had all the runs he needed in snappy 2:05 of old school baseball that was far from dull despite the score.

Diverse Tuesday Betting Outlook

With a 2-1 Monday, that takes 3Daily Winners to 39-26-2, 60 percent, right the nose over extended period of time. Today we have the assortment pack and we’ll see how that works. The Best System is a baseball play that is 85.5 percent. The Top Trend is in the NBA and looks at the only team that has failed to lose in postseason and the Free Play is on the ice. Good Luck.

What I learned yesterday – The Boston Celtics looked very tired for three quarters before waking up. Have you noticed that the Orlando uniforms tend to bunch up around the players necks late in fourth quarters, much like Stan Van Gundy’s turtlenecks? If you didn’t know the respective records of the teams, you would swear the Houston Rockets are the better team. Whatever the Angels are paying pitcher Joe Saunders, it’s not enough. The guy is money on the road.

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more, with a starting pitcher who gives up seven or more hits a start, playing on Tuesday. Totally confused what this system would have to do with the day of the week, but thrilled about the results at 47-8, 85.5 percent. Go against Texas.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Cleveland Cavs are 11-2 ATS after successfully covering the spread in four or more consecutive games this season.

Free Hockey Selection -3) The top hockey bettor from the LCC likes Chicago Blackhawks on home ice in Game 3.

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MLB Series Wagering- Red Sox at Angels

Under normal circumstances the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim would be really fired up, having been eliminated from the playoffs three times by this weekend’s opponent in the last five years, including the last two. However, the tragic event that occurred Thursday morning changes everything.

Nick Adenhart was the Angels best minor league pitching prospect and due to injuries to other starting pitchers, was forced into action to start 2009 season. Adenhart gave a very good opening performance against Oakland, with six shutout innings and at 22-years old, the world was all ahead of him. A senseless tragedy took the life of Adenhart and how the Angels will react is anyone’s guess.

The Angels will turn to Jered Weaver to stem the tide of consecutive losses suffered against Oakland. This is an important season for the 26-year right-hander. Believed at one time to have No.1 starter ability, the last two years have not shown such progression and his stuff is now considered just above average. This spring after shoulder stiffness, his velocity returned according to scouts, throwing in frequently in the mid-90’s. When he’s on, he throws sinking off-speed pitches. At 6’7, his mechanics are prone to be unreliable and can walk two batters at the drop of a hat. Manager Mike Scioscia needs a stellar effort, as the early returns of bullpen have been disastrous, with 9.72 ERA.

Boston will understand the somber tone of the opener at the Big A, and starts Tim Wakefield, now in his 15th year. The knuckle-baller will try to end the Red Sox own two-game losing streak as Boston plays first road game. Wakefield is second in the major leagues in continuous service with one team (Mariano Rivera first) and lifetime is 9-12 against the Halos.

Betjamaica.com has the Angels -108 money line favorites with the total at nine. Weaver and L.A. won five of his last six home starts in 2008; however he has not been a great opening starter with team just 4-9 in Game One’s. Including the season opener, Boston is 14-3 in series openers, but just 3-9 in Wakefield’s road starts. Going to lean with Los Angeles, having 18-4 record after two or more consecutive losses. Watch the total as well, with Weaver and L.A. 21-8 UNDER after a loss over the last two-plus seasons.

Game 1 Edge: Angels

Saturday’s contest will be afternoon affair, with Brad Penny making his Boston debut. Penny hopes to find the form that made him an All-Star in 2006-07 and not the injury-plagued year that left him at 6-9, with an ERA over six. Penny would appreciate if Kevin Youkilis brought his hot bat to La-La Land, with eight base-knocks in first dozen at bats. Because of turmoil with starting staff, Shane Loux will start in Game 2. Loux was one-time prospect in Detroit organization, who throws strikes and depend on ground-ball outs. After being out of baseball in 2007, the 29-year old was the Pacific Coast League Pitcher of the Year with Salt Lake last season. The BoSox will be the favorite and best choice, even though the Angels have won seven of last eight as underdog.

Game 2 Edge: Boston

The series finale should be a fine pitching matchup with Josh Beckett (1-0, 1.29 ERA) facing Joe Saunders (1-0, 0.00). Beckett was in top form on Opening Day, chucking seven strong innings, with 10 strike-outs and one run and two hits allowed. Last season, Beckett was very solid on the road with 7-5 and 2.85 ERA, though he is being watched closely after velocity dip late in the season. If Hall of Famer Reggie Jackson is known as Mr. October, than Saunders is emerging as Mr. April, based on his early season efforts the last few years. He limited Oakland to just three hits this past Monday, raising his record to 8-0 in April starts. He’s kept the Boston batting order in check with 4-0 record in six starts, with 2.89 ERA. The Halos are 25-8 against the money line when the lefty starts since the beginning of last season.

Game 3 Edge: Angels

A lot of this series depends on the mental state of the Angels. Skipper Scioscia not only has to be manager, but father figure as well, since each player will react differently about what happened. Because of the unknown, have to stick strictly with facts. Seeing the Angels do have revenge motive and have won nine of last 10 regular season meetings, and five of last six at Angel Stadium, have to play the underdog for this series wager.

Series odds: Boston -145, L.A. Angels +115

3Daily Winners Pick: L.A. Angels