The “Big Uglies” can lead to college football profits

The glamour position of football is the quarterback, followed by running backs. These are the players that get all the love (and hate) and pub from the media, fans and football bettors. However, longtime college football announcer Keith Jackson and every football coach that ever walked the sidelines above peewee level knows it all starts up front, as Jackson used to say, with the “Big Uglies”.

An offense line can set the pace of a game, running the ball down opposing teams’ throats by opening chasms Levi Johnson and is temptress could walk thru hand and hand. The same would also be true in the passing game, providing the accomplished quarterback time to answer email, plus update Facebook and Twitter pages.

The opposite could also be true of the college football teams that are rebuilding offensive lines due to graduation or defection. A talented quarterback may be taking his life into his own hands trying to avoid the onslaught of defenders (see Jimmy Clausen tape at Notre Dame), to look downfield to complete a pass. What about the star running back who needs a compass to run north and south, since there are no holes to run thru and becomes accustomed to bouncing everything outside.

In the rest of this article, we’ll look what teams have the most and fewest returning offensive linemen and what impact that could have on their universities upcoming season and for those betting on football.

The best place to start is teams that have all five O-linemen back along with their starting quarterback.

Ball State
Colorado
Florida State
Fresno State
Louisiana Tech
Minnesota
South Florida
Wisconsin

Specifically, the Seminoles and Badgers are expected to be teams not only competing for the top of their respective conferences, but also nationally. Guard Rodney Hudson for Florida State and tackle Gabe Carimi at Wisconsin, are on virtually everyone’s first team All-American list. Wisky’s John Moffitt is believed to be no worse than the third best guard in the country.

Colorado’s offense should be further improved this upcoming campaign and Fresno State’s pounding running game should create more havoc on the WAC.

New coaching staffs are in place in South Florida and Louisiana Tech, which could see the shifting of players up front, making improvement less certain. Ball State and Minnesota might have all these individuals back, but that doesn’t mean they were that good to begin with. Collectively, this entire group is worth following.

The next grouping is five offensive linemen back, with a different starting signal caller.

Georgia
Kansas
Memphis
Northwestern
Oregon
Rice

With this contingent, the head coach and his offensive staff will try to build around these players before heading into conference action. These behemoths are being counted on to open holes and keep the opposition off new quarterbacks. These large fellas actually have a great deal of pressure on them as opponents will game plan to have more defensive players at the line of scrimmage to create chaos with blocking assignments and to confuse new field general or make backs less instinctive when carrying the pigskin.

Memphis and Kansas have new head coaches, lending itself to period of adjustment for new blocking schemes. The rest of the squads will have to set the tone for the makings of a successful season and earn the trust of those following football betting lines.

The next patch is teams with only one lineman having starting experience from a year ago. A smart quarterback’s knowledge of the offense and ability to hit open receivers proficiently can take some of the pressure off until this unit gels.

Vanderbilt, Southern Miss, Kentucky and Hawaii all fit the aforementioned situation, with the Golden Eagles from Hattiesburg, MS having the best opportunity to prosper with the quarterback duo of Austin Davis and Martevious Young being able to chuck the ball to 6’6 DeAndre Brown, C-USA’s finest pure pass catcher. Coach Larry Fedora is offensive-minded and has the best chance for achieving success with somewhat limited options.

Bobby Johnson resigned at Vanderbilt just last month, making a prickly predicament that much worse and Joker Phillips will quickly learn that lacking experience in the offensive line is no joke in the SEC.

That brings us to Air Force and Florida Atlantic, who have no O-Linemen that started the majority of games a year ago. Though hardly ideal, the Air Force and all military universities face a somewhat similar issue most years. Unless a linemen ends up being unusually skilled (which is unlikely since they could go somewhere else and just play football), few underclassman play early in their careers. The zone blocking scheme the Air Force employs is more about cohesiveness than blowing somebody up across the line of scrimmage. Plus, the Flyboys have two good quarterbacks for their offense, each with a different skill set to help offset having five newbies that will block for them. Nonetheless, it might pay to watch this team in September as play against BYU, at Oklahoma and at Wyoming and watch the stats to see if the Falcons come together quickly.

It might be long season for Florida Atlantic. Technically, the Owls don’t have returning starting QB, however senior Jeff Van Camp was forced to play the last five games due to injury of decorated Rusty Smith. However, around him are five fresh faces in the line and five of top six pass catchers have graduated.

When the bowl season comes around, invariably the talk of commentators will turn to “the offensive line carried this team for much of the year” or “this club failed to meet expectations because the offensive line didn’t block as presumed”. Use this information as a good starting point for the upcoming college football season.

2010 BIG 10 CONFERENCE FOOTBALL PREVIEW

By Marc Lawrence of Playbook.com

When you talk Big 10 Football these days you talk Ohio State.

The Buckeyes won at least a share of the last five Big Ten Championships and will look to match the conference record with a sixth straight crown in 2010, equaling the feat first accomplished by Ohio State from 1972-77. OSU became just the second team in conference history to win five straight conference championships after claiming the 2009 title, splitting the crown with Penn State in 2005 and 2008 and ending the 2006, 2007 and 2009 seasons alone in first place. The Buckeyes have compiled a Big Ten mark of 36-4 over the last five years. Ohio State became the first conference team in over 15 years to finish in first place in five straight seasons since Michigan won at least a share of five consecutive championships from 1988-92.

The 2009 Big Ten Offensive and Defensive Players of the Year return to their respective teams in 2010. Wisconsin RB John Clay and Michigan State LB Greg Jones enter the 2010 campaign as the respective winners last season. Clay becomes the first returning Offensive Player of the Year since 1999 when former Purdue quarterback Drew Brees returned to the Boilermakers after being honored as a sophomore in 1998. Jones becomes the first returning Defensive Player of the Year since 2008, when Ohio State linebacker James Laurinaitis came back to successfully defend his 2007 conference honor.

The Big Ten also welcomes back seven starting quarterbacks from the 2009 season, five of which led their teams to bowl appearances. Iowa senior Ricky Stanzi and Ohio State junior Terrelle Pryor each led their squads to BCS victories last January, Stanzi in the Orange Bowl and Pryor in the Rose Bowl. Wisconsin senior Scott Tolzien led the Badgers to a victory in the Champs Sports Bowl, while Minnesota senior Adam Weber guided the Gophers to the Insight Bowl. Michigan State junior Kirk Cousins guided the Spartans' in their 31-point effort in the Alamo Bowl. Also returning in 2010 is the conference's top statistical passer, Indiana senior Ben Chappell, and Michigan sophomore Tate Forcier, the only full-time freshman starting quarterback in the Big Ten last year.

And the there’s Joe. Penn State's Joe Paterno picked up his 394th victory with a triumph over LSU in the Capital One Bowl and currently holds the all-time victory record among Football Bowl Subdivision coaches. Paterno has built a record of 394-129-3 in his 44 seasons leading the Nittany Lions. Paterno is the longest serving head coach at one school in major college football history.

Note: Team writeups excerpted from the 2010 PLAYBOOK Football Preview magazine. Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback. Designated ‘Play On’ and ‘Play Against’ Best Bets follow each team’s preview.

ILLINOIS – 5 / 7
TEAM THEME: OUT OF JUICE
Thanks to a disappointing offense and an even worse defense, the Illini could only squeeze out three wins in 2009. Six new assistant coaches arrive in Champaign to sort out the mess led by OC Paul Petrino (Bobby’s brother) and DC Vic Koennig. Petrino’s playbook won’t include Juice Williams, whose once promising career soured out, or top WR Arrelious Benn, a 2nd round NFL draft pick. The plan may be to revert back to classic Big Ten football as four of the team’s top five RB’s return. In addition, four of the Illini’s top five tacklers are back in the fray. With eight bowlers lining the 2010 schedule, including road trips to Penn State and Fresno State, ‘three yards’ may be a bit optimistic. However, the cloud of dust is likely to hang over this program for at least one more season.
PLAY ON: as dog vs. Fresno St (12/3)

INDIANA – *8 / 4
TEAM THEME: QUICK DRAW
The feeling here is the Hoosiers could be a real sleeper team in 2010. Four of their eight losses last year were by 3 points or less. A promising 3-1 start ended in a 0-5 disaster after IU blew a 25-point lead at Northwestern and followed up by choking away a two-TD lead at Iowa. The roster is loaded with upper classmen (19 seniors, 23 juniors) and efficient QB Ben Chappell is back to lead an offense that will add the ‘Pistol’ to its repertoire. Chappell was the first QB in IU history to complete 60% of his passes in a single season. A favorable early schedule could find the Hoosiers off to a quick 5-1 start. However, they’ll need to continue pulling the trigger late in the season to silence some conference opponents and prevent another November nightmare.
PLAY ON: vs. Purdue (11/27)

IOWA – *6 / 8
TEAM THEME: COMEBACK KIDS
Talk about stability. Since 1979 only two coaches have manned the Iowa City sidelines – Hayden Fry and Kirk Ferentz. Ferentz may have saved his best coaching job for 2009. Despite ranking 10th in the Big 10 in scoring, rushing and total offense, the 12-year veteran guided his team to a 6-2 conference record, an 11-2 overall mark and an Orange Bowl win over Georgia Tech. Did we mention that Iowa, amazingly, trailed in every contest last season until the regular-season ender versus Minnesota! The Hawkeyes 10th-ranked defense (277 YPG) constantly saved the day. Expect more of the same in 2010 as it welcomes back eight starters, including the entire front four. The return of injured QB Ricky Stanzi and RB Jewel Hampton should provide the ‘O’ with a much-needed boost. Either way, the Kinnick Stadium crowd should be in for another ‘Kardiac Kampaign’.
PLAY ON: vs. Northwestern (11/13)

MICHIGAN – *7 / 8
TEAM THEME: FORCIER THE ISSUE
Pete Fiutak of College Football News.com put it best when he asked of Rich Rodriguez’s playbook, “Is this thing ever going to work?” As disappointing as Michigan’s spread offense has been, the defense has been worse – decaying 57 YPG since Rich Rod’s arrival. Last season, the Wolves suffered through a 6-game Big Ten losing streak for the first time in 50 years. In fact, Rodriguez has 13 conference losses in just two seasons at Ann Arbor. FYI: It took Bo Schembechler 13 years to lose 13 Big Ten games! There was one bright spot in the Big House and that was the play of freshman QB Tate Forcier, who passed for over 2,000 yards and 13 TD’s. The automakers repaid Obama five years early on their bailout loan. Rodriguez may have to do the same if he doesn’t get it in gear this season.
PLAY AGAINST: as favorite vs. Notre Dame (9/11)

MICHIGAN STATE – *7 / 6
TEAM THEME: HELTER SKELTER
East Lansing saw the good, bad and ugly in 2009. On the good side, the Spartans beat Michigan for a second straight season – the first time that’s happened since the Beatles were topping the charts in the mid ‘60’s. From a mediocre standpoint, Mark Dantonio’s bunch dropped six regular season games for the first time under his direction – though five of those losses were by a total of just 23 points. Now for the ugly: Thanks to a frat spat at the end of the regular season, a black cloud hangs over the heads of 11 players found guilty of brawling. The news also varies in 2010. Thanks to graduation losses and the fraternity chaos, the WR corps and D-line is severely short-handed entering the 2010 season. The good news is QB Kirk Cousins, who started all 13 games in 2009 and ranked No. 25 in the nation in pass efficiency, is back. Let’s hope ugly stays home.
PLAY AGAINST: as favorite vs. Northwestern (10/23)

MINNESOTA – *9 / 2
TEAM THEME: SATURDAY IN THE DARK
To paraphrase a line from Dennis Green, “The Gophers are who we thought they were” – a middle of the pack Big 10 team. After a terrific turnaround in 2008, a big 2009 season could have made HC Tim Brewster millions. However, an uneventful 6-7 year capped off by a bowl loss to Iowa State has the Gophers’ faithful feeling a little punky. With just two starters and no linemen back on defense, the Minneapolis natives may be best served to keep the TV off until Sunday. The biggest shoes to fill will be the loss of three LB’s that were all NFL combine attendees. While point production dropped for the third straight year under Brewster, Minnesota’s offense may suddenly be the strength of the team with nine starters back. Nine bowlers roll onto the 2010 slate but six visit the comfy confines of TCF Bank Stadium. Saturday looks like another yawner in the City of Lakes.
PLAY AGAINST: as favorite vs. Northern Illinois (9/25)

NORTHWESTERN – 8 / 6
TEAM THEME: CURIOUS ‘CATS
Savoring their most successful stretch of football in school history, the Wildcats finished the decade with a 61-60 record. The winning record may come as a bit of a surprise… as should this little piece of bar trivia: in the last 15 years, only Ohio State and Michigan have won or shared more Big Ten titles than Northwestern’s three crowns. While HC Pat Fitzgerald won just five Big Ten contests in his first two years in Evanston, his Wildcats have posted five conference wins in each of the last two seasons. An offensive line that returns intact along with the entire linebacking crew should keep the ‘Cats prowling in 2010 – but career back-up Dan Persa will have to fill the void left by 2009 Big Ten passing leader Mike Kafka. Road trips to Penn State and Wisconsin may cost the ‘Cats a couple of lives, but another year without the Buckeyes on the slate could have this bunch feeling frisky.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Indiana (10/30)

OHIO STATE – *10 / 6
TEAM THEME: COVER UP
The combination of eight home games and a ferocious defense that ranks third nationally over the last six years (280 YPG), makes the Buckeyes serious title contenders in 2010. If he doesn’t cave under the pressure of being our cover boy, QB Terrelle Pryor should be a front-runner for the Heisman Trophy. After a mid-season loss at Purdue, Pryor took matters into his owns hands (and feet), leading the Buckeyes to a season-ending 6-game win streak, including a Rose Bowl win over Oregon. The junior has plenty of help on offense as nine starters return, including a backfield that HC Jim Tressel calls the deepest he’s had in his 10 years at Columbus. Ohio State’s biggest hurdles on its way to a BCS title tilt will be road games at Wisky and Iowa. Along, of course, with our aforementioned cover jinx. Just ask Big Ben, who graced – or should we say disgraced – last year’s edition.
PLAY AGAINST: as favorite vs. Iowa (11/20)

PENN STATE – 7 / 5
TEAM THEME: AMAZING RACE
To those who contend Joe Pa is slipping, we say you need to tune into a reality show – real quick. Not only have the Lions posted back-to-back 11-win seasons, but the only team that they have failed to outgain over the last two regular seasons has been Ohio State, as Penn State is 22-2 ‘In The Stats’ during that span. A tough schedule, laced with eight bowlers and road trips to Alabama, Iowa and Ohio State figure to test those numbers in 2010. Replacing QB Daryll Clark may also test Paterno’s patience, though highly-recruited SO Kevin Newsome is poised to win the starting job. Linebacker U. returns only five starters on the defensive side of the ball but that unit is in its usual reloading, rather than rebuilding, phase. It’s another race against time for the 83-year old Paterno. Our money is on Joe.
PLAY ON: as dog vs. Alabama (9/11)

PURDUE – 6 / 6
TEAM THEME: SIMPLY MARVE-ELOUS
For the second straight year, the Boilermakers lose a starting QB to graduation. Joey Elliott did an admirable job replacing Curtis Painter and now it’s Robert Marve’s show. The transfer from Miami Fla, who lost his starting job to Jacory Harris, will be front and under center as the Boilermakers look to avoid a third straight losing season. Despite a seven-loss campaign, there is ‘Hope’ in West Lafayette (read: Danny). Six of the seven losses in 2009 were to bowl teams and four were by seven or less points. The second-year head coach also saw his forces win four of their final six games, beating Ohio State and Michigan in the same season for only the third time in school history. A defense that lost its entire secondary will have to be addressed but with only three winning teams on this year’s ticket, it could be a ‘marvelous’ time to be a Boiler.
PLAY ON: vs. Minnesota (10/16)

WISCONSIN –*10 / 6
TEAM THEME: ALIVE AND KICKING
It could be argued that the majority of the Badgers wins last season came against teams that barely had a pulse. Thus it was strange to watch Wisconsin manhandle Miami in the Champs Sports Bowl last year. That’s because the Badgers’ three losses last year were to quality opposition. Ironically, they will face only three teams (two coming at home) in 2010 that enjoyed winning seasons last year – the same three that took them down in 2009. That leaves nine foes sporting losing ledgers and, behind 16 returning starters, Bret Bielema is obviously anxious to let the games begin. And kick this around, if you will… Bielema, who is 38-14 in his four seasons at Madison, has seen his team involved in 13 games that were decided by three or less points. He is 9-4 in those games, with wins in five of the last six. The holes are few and far between in Camp Randall Stadium.
PLAY ON: as a dog vs. Ohio State (10/16) – *KEY +6.5 pts or more

Start your Sunday with these five matchups

By now your sleep pattern showed be seriously disrupted, waking yourself up screaming, “onions” from a Bill Raftery call or the occasional Dick Enberg “oh my” as the brain can’t properly rest with the constant rhythm of a basketball pounding the hardwood for hours on end. Additionally, in the other regions of the brain, you are going over why you bet a certain team or why you didn’t have the “onions” to take one you know you should have. Don’t despair, roughly one more eight hour segment to go before you can rest up, with five games coming in the early afternoon or late morning depending on your proximity.

Gonzaga vs. Syracuse 12:10E

The Orangemen answered one question; can they play without injured center Arinze Onuaku? The answer was yes, but Vermont doesn’t have anywhere near the talent level Gonzaga (27-6, 16-11-2 ATS) has. Even if Onuaku could go, he’ll have limitations as to what he can do, which means Wesley Johnson and Andy Rautins will have to carry the scoring load, with others like Scoop Jackson and Rick Jackson chipping in. Syracuse (29-4, 20-9 ATS) is a 6.5-point favorite at DiamondSportsbook.com and is a 9-2 ATS after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last game.

The Bulldogs ended up drawing two phenomenal defensive teams in the early rounds of the West regional, but at least the ‘Cuse likes to get out and run, more to Gonzaga’s liking. The Zags were exquisite in the first half against Florida State, building a 16-point lead, however fell into the Seminoles trap of slow down and needed always reliable Matt Bouldin to bail them out. With the total listed at 150, Gonzaga can play their more free-flowing style, but to win have to solve Jim Boeheim’s 2-3 zone. Gonzaga is 26-12 ATS as a neutral court underdog or pick.

1 vs. 8 seeds are 37-9 SU, winning by 9.3 points per game the last 25 years.

Georgia Tech vs. Ohio State 2:20E

As was documented yesterday, 10-seeds oft times present problems for No. 2 seeds, winning outright about 40 percent of the time. Georgia Tech (23-12, 16-12-1 ATS) was the sixth ACC team seeded 10th or worse since 1994 (out of seven), to pull off the upset in the first round. The Yellow Jackets have the athletes and inside power to make them a factor in any contest, however they must play at their own pace since they are 16-6 ATS when they attempt 54 to 62 shots. That means a large number of touches for Gani Lawal and freshman Derrick Favors.

Ohio State (28-7, 17-16-2 ATS) is more diverse offensively than Warren Buffet’s portfolio, making them a headache to defend. Everyone knows what Evan Turner can do, but when Jon Diebler hits seven of the purest three-pointers you have ever seen and defenses start leaning his way, that opens up William Buford and David Lighty to expand their games. The Buckeyes are a 6.5-point pick with total of 133.5 and they are 8-2 ATS playing against a team that wins 60% to 80% of their games this season.

The Yellow Jackets are 8-0 UNDER on a neutral court when the total is 130 to 139.5.

Michigan State vs. Maryland 2:30E

Round Two on Sunday resembles a Big Ten meet with four teams in action. The conference was believed to be improved this year and this is a swing game that will help determine if that belief was actually true. Michigan State (25-8, 12-20 ATS) got off a good start against New Mexico State, building a 13-point lead before seeing it all disappear to the more aggressive Aggies in the second half. The Spartans were overwhelmed by New Mexico State’s faster tempo and would have lost except for the Aggies impatience in late game shot selection and 13-22 mark from the free throw line. Coach Gary Williams more experienced team is unlikely to waste that opportunity if they reach that point and Michigan State is 5-15 ATS facing a club with a winning record this season.

Maryland’s (24-8, 17-10 ATS) win over Houston was workman-like, taking the Cougars best shots, while maintaining control. There's no question the Terrapins' success revolves around senior guard Greivis Vasquez, whose game has matured to the level of doing what it takes to win, instead of making sure his numbers are in order. Maryland will undoubtedly use full court or three quarter pressure on the Spartans earlier in the game to determine who they react. The Terps are 8-1 ATS in road conditions after playing consecutive games as a favorite and is 10-2 and 9-3 ATS in last dozen outings.

Maryland is a one-point favorite; however four seeds are 11-23 ATS since 1998.

Missouri vs. West Virginia 2:40E

Can Missouri (23-10, 15-12 ATS) ring the bell as an upset winner? If they bring the same intensity they played with Friday in beating Clemson they just might. The Tigers 75-60 loss to Nebraska in first Big 12 tourney contest had coach Mike Anderson thinking October, not March. The very next practice was a return to basics, including all the conditioning drills the players hate, but they got the message. Against Clemson they had 15 steals and 20 forced turnovers, which led directly to 20 points in 86-78 triumph. “Our teams typically start playing some of their better basketball right around late February, March,’’ said coach Anderson. “I guess we really turned up the intensity…” The Tigers are 15-4 ATS versus ball handling teams committing 12 or fewer turnovers a contest.

West Virginia (28-6, 14-19 ATS) hit the snooze button to start against Morgan State down 10-0, but were alarmed into reality by the soothing tones of coach Bob Huggins and buried the Bears the rest of the first half 38-17 on the way to 27-point win. The Mountaineers will have to show patience on offense in attacking Missouri and take advantage of opportunities once they break the press. West Virginia can’t become flustered either when Mizzou goes on 6-0 or 8-2 runs, that just their style. The ‘Teers are six-point favorites and are 13-2 ATS in a NCAA tournament games since 1997.

Cornell vs. Wisconsin 2:50E

The Big Red of Cornell (28-4, 17-10 ATS) ended the Ivy’s league’s 12-year drought of empty NCAA trips with a resounding performance against A-10 champion Temple. "Everyone was saying we were Cinderella or it's an upset. Not us," sophomore Chris Wroblewski said Friday after his toppled Temple 78-65 as three-point underdogs. Cornell spent the first half pushing the ball inside and once the Owls were forced to sag lower, the nation’s top three point shooting team unleashed the hounds and total nine 3-pointers. The team from Ithaca, NY is 10-1 ATS after playing a game as an underdog.

Wisconsin (24-8, 17-13 ATS) played average at best in holding off Wofford 53-49, nevertheless the Badgers showed their most important trait when it mattered most, poise. Wisconsin lost every bit of their early 10-point second half lead, but played solid defense in the closing minutes and made big shots to emerge victorious. The Badgers are reliable three-point defensive team and they will need to deliver. Wisky is a 4.5-point favorite and 8-1 ATS if opposing squad has win percentage of 80 percent or better.

The tournament has shown that 4-seeds taking on 12-seeds in this round win by four points a game, about the same as oddsmakers number.

Rivalry Week lives up to billing tonight

For the most part, this made for cable sports broadcasting concept work well putting on a variety of top line games to watch and wager on. The situations are presumed to work and sometimes the schedule and prior events bring added importance to these matchups. It’s a battle of Tennessee when Vandy hosts the Volunteers in Nashville and the Big Ten has four of its top five teams in action in extremely important conference clashes. It promises to be quite a Tuesday for Rivalry Week.

Volunteer State Scuffle

Vanderbilt and Tennessee are positioned one game behind Kentucky in the SEC East and the winner will be no worse off at the completion of this conflict. Vanderbilt (17-5, 10-9 ATS) blew a golden opportunity Saturday to stay tied with the Wildcats falling at last place Georgia 72-58 as 4.5-point favorites. The Commodores shot 32.8 percent from the field (6-23 from 3’s) and did a real poor job defensively as the Bulldogs shot 53.2 percent and had nearly as many assists as baskets. Vandy will have to be much more efficient at home since they are 5-13-1 ATS off a SU loss.

Tennessee (18-4, 9-10 ATS) continues to confound, winners of three in a row after suffering a pair of SEC losses, one of which was to Vanderbilt. Wayne Chism is off a career high 30 points against South Carolina and he needs to be a defensive stalwart on the road. The Vols are just 2-5 ATS in last seven conference games.

The Volunteers are 13-5-1 ATS in last 19 battles, including 7-2 ATS at Vandy and are 3.5-point road underdogs at Bookmaker.com. This contest is on ESPN at 7 Eastern.

State Line Collision

Illinois and Wisconsin really don’t have much of a rivalry except for those that live on either side of the border between the two states. Folks south of the border see Wisconsin as nice quiet place to visit for vacations and those from the Badger State have little use for “those Flat-landers”. The Kohl Center will be no vacation spot for coach Bruce Pearl’s club, who is off its signature win of the season against Michigan State 78-73. The Fighting Illini (16-8, 8-13-1 ATS) has won four in a row and is in three-way tie for second place, one game behind Michigan State, however they are only 2-7-1 ATS off a cover since last season.

The Badgers (18-5, 13-8 ATS) have just taken care of both Michigan schools and return home where they are 13-0 and 8-3 ATS this season. Wisconsin is receiving fine performances Keaton Nankivil and Jordan Taylor, both who have raised their play since Jon Leuer was injured and coach Bo Ryan has developed a little depth with forward Ryan Evans and guard Rob Wilson making solid contributions. Off their win and cover at Ann Arbor, Wisconsin is 10-2 and 7-3 ATS after covering the oddsmakers number.

Wisconsin is a 9.5-point favorite and is 3-0-1 ATS the last four times Illinois has visited and the Under is 4-1 in the Mad City. This encounter is on the Big Ten Network at 7 Eastern.

Spartans in survival mode

Michigan State (19-5, 8-15 ATS) had kept winning, yet aesthetically was far from pleasing in starting Big Ten play 9-0. Among the reasons have been Raymar Morgan hasn’t always played with complete effort and is Casper the Ghost on the floor at times, particularly when foul problems arrive. Sophomore forward Delvon Roe continues to struggle, which is why sixth man Draymond Green continues to see heavy minutes. The Spartans were blasted by the Badgers for their first conference loss and with injured Kalin Lucas on the sidelines, could not match baskets with improbable Illinois club. Lucas’ status is still up in the air for tonight and it is time for these other players to assertive themselves, since Purdue is in town and their mindset is aggressive. Sparty is 33-14 ATS when they grab more than 45 rebounds.

It seems odd a Top 20 team would still be tinkering with main players in February, yet this is exactly what coach Matt Painter has been doing. A few Purdue (19-3, 10-12 ATS) bench players and occasionally starters have been more erratic than the Real Housewives of Orange Country. Nobody would prefer to have certain individuals step up more than Painter, with eight Big Ten games on the docket. Sophomore point guard Lewis Jackson has played 41 total minutes in three games since returning from a broken left foot that sidelined him and some of the rust is starting to come off which would help since the Boilermakers are 4-14 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points.

First place Michigan State is favored by 2.5points and is 9-1 and 7-3 ATS at the Breslin Center vs. Purdue with 6-2 UNDER mark. Game time will be just after 9 Eastern on ESPN.

Saturday College Basketball Matchups

Of course the Super Bowl is coming, but let’s take a one day sabbatical before Sunday and sit down and get into college basketball. Of course televised action goes from morning to night and so does your wagering opportunities. Check information on the Big East, A-10, Big Ten, ACC, Mountain West and even a battle for first place in Conference USA, with Memphis not included. Tomorrow is an American institution, however Saturday is all about the orange (Clark Kellogg reference) and sharing the sugar (Steve Lavin reference), make it work for you.

Villanova at Georgetown (-2, 151)12:00E ESPN

While the jury is still out on what kind of pro prospect Scottie Reynolds might be, the senior guard has proven to be an exceptional collegiate basketball player. You can count on one hand the number of times Reynolds has tried to force the action this season and his shooting percentage is at a career high, based on basketball IQ and what the opponent is offering. He’s also tougher than a $3 steak which is why Villanova (20-1, 15-5 ATS) is 10-2 ATS in Saturday road games the last three seasons.

It’s actually fairly remarkable Georgetown (16-5, 9-8 ATS) is as good as it is this season. The Hoyas has struck out more the Phillies Ryan Howard when turning to the bench for point production. The cupboard has been bare for Coach John Thompson III, placing a greater burden on his starters to lead the way. If Austin Freeman, Greg Monroe or Chris Wright has an off night (like Wright did in scoring eight points in South Florida loss), especially against the better teams, it is very much like a disconnected cell phone call, everything goes quiet.
Someone for the G-Town has to answer or they fall to 1-9 ATS February home games since 2008.

Georgetown is 1-6 and lamentable 0-7 ATS against Nova at home since 1997.

Xavier at Dayton (-3, 135.5) 12:00E ESPN2

The Musketeers (16-6, 14-7 ATS)were not supposed to be as formidable after three A-10 titles, 25 or more wins and two visits to Sweet Sixteen. New coach Chris Mack had to gain the trust of old and new players, however he couldn’t have counted on what guard Jamal Crawford would mean to Xavier, who sits atop the conference leaderboard at 8-1. The transfer not only became a YouTube sensation dunking on LeBron James this past summer, but he is the team’s leading scorer, on a club that brought back just enough veteran talent to keep them in A-10 contention this season. Xavier is 12-2 ATS playing teams with 60-80 percent win percentage since last year.

The team believed capable of unseating Xavier in 2010 was Dayton; however the Flyers have not been clutch at winning time, losing three conference contests by six total points. Dayton (15-6, 10-8 ATS) has been outscored by over 40 points this season in the final five minutes of regulation play, shooting around 35 percent (43% normally). Dayton’s strength also turns out to be one its weaknesses. The Flyers have six players averaging six or more points, but lack a go to scorer at crunch time. They are 6-2 ATS against teams with winning records.

Dayton is playing into revenge and is 5-1 SU and ATS as home favorite against Xavier.

Wake Forest at Virginia (-3.5, 134.5)12:00E ESPN Full Court

Coming into this year’s ACC campaign, one of the teams not presumed to compete for the conference crown was Virginia (14-6, 9-6 ATS). Yet past the quarter point of the league schedule, the Cavaliers are right in the mix. How could this be? It starts with new coach Tony Bennett stressing the little things- free throw shooting, assists to turnovers ratio and playing defense out to 25 feet. The older Virginia players have seen the value of this style and like W’s. The Cavs are 39-22 ATS at home vs. teams making 45 or percent of shots past the halfway point of season.

Wake Forest (15-5, 9-8 ATS) lost by 20 points at Duke and showed their resolve in knocking out North Carolina 82-69 at Chapel Hill in next outing. If senior Ishmael Smith can continue to put up impressive numbers, the Demon Deacons are going to be a fecund club the rest of the way. Al-Farouq Aminu’s game is ever-expanding and he’s unstoppable near the bucket. If freshmen C.J. Harris and Ari Stewart can be a touch more consistent shooting, they already know center Chas McFarland will do his job in the paint. Wake has to protect the ball, as they are 25-43 ATS in road games when they commit three to seven more turnovers than opponents.

Virginia is 7-3 and 6-4 ATS at Charlottesville against Demon Deacons.

Wisconsin at Michigan (+1, 116.5) 4:00E CBS

Not exactly Game of the Weekend material for the Super Bowl network, but what the heck, Big Ten basketball means eyeballs. Wisconsin’s margin of error without injured Jon Leuer is smaller than Verne Troyer (Mini-Me). After stern matchups with Purdue and Michigan State, the Badgers head the Ann Arbor to build on fine performance over the Spartans. Trevon Hughes has continued to produce, however sophomore Jordan Taylor and Keaton Nankivil has raised his level of play in Leuer’s absence and Wisky is 10-5 ATS as a road favorite or pick.

Too their credit, Michigan (11-11, 10-8 ATS) has been beating oddsmakers expectations since January with 8-2 spread mark, nonetheless they have failed to meet their own beliefs. The Wolverines thought they were NCAA tournament ready after last season, but have danced around .500 most of the season instead. More than anything Michigan players lacked the internal commitment to start the season and have given away apparent wins late in games. Ranking last in the Big Ten in rebounding, the Wolverines are 20-43 ATS historically when they grab four to nine fewer boards per game.

The Badgers (17-5, 12-8 ATS) have taken nine of last 10 meetings with 6-4 ATS mark.

BYU at UNLV (-1, 146.5) 4:00E VERSUS

Jimmer Fredette is back! After battling mononucleosis in late December, the junior guard has been lighting up Mountain West foes and is the leading reason why BYU (22-2, 12-9 ATS) has one the finest records in college basketball. The Cougars formula for success is simple; they lead the conference in field goal percentage offense and defense. This is a talented club who understands their roles and plays accordingly. BYU is 15-4 ATS in road games over the last two seasons and 8-0 ATS is February.

UNLV coaches and players understand any chance of winning the conference rests with winning this MWC contest. The Runnin’ Rebels (18-4, 14-6 ATS) have their deepest team since Lon Kruger arrived, however the loss of starting guard Derrick Jasper to injury will test that belief, especially for all he does. This signal’s Tre’Von Willis and Chace Stanback will have to play up a level and UNLV is 7-1 ATS facing teams outscoring their opponents by four or points a game this season.

BYU is 3-10 and 3-7 ATS in Sin City the last dozen years.

Michigan State at Illinois (+1.5, 126) 9:00E ESPN

Michigan State (19-4, 8-14 ATS) is in the featured spotlight for this ESPN prime time affair. Coach Tom Izzo must have a lucky rabbit’s foot or something, having won a couple of recent Big Ten road games by a single digit until being bounced by the Badgers 67-49 for their first conference loss. Actually Izzo’s lucky charm is junior Kalin Lucas. The point guard has put the dagger in twice with final seconds’ baskets and been the ring leader in finding teammates in quality comebacks. Lucas quote – “I just think at clutch time, I want to have the ball in my hands.” Unfortunately Lucas is game time decision with a sprained ankle. The Spartans are 8-2 ATS as a road favorite of six points or less or pick over the last three seasons.

The problem won’t go away by itself and coach Bruce Weber knows it. For Illinois (15-8, 7-13-1 ATS), there is a direct link to leadership and winning. When a Mike Davis, Mike Tisdale or Demetri McCamey assumes the role of leader in any game, the Illini have plenty of fight and either wins or are highly competitive. If this trio becomes a group of shrinking violets, Illinois is doomed for failure. Coach Webber is hoarse from preaching, togetherness, toughness and playing hard, the team just hasn’t taken it to heart and is 7-13-1 ATS this season.

The Spartans are 4-6 and 3-7 ATS at Champaign in last 10, but have won and covered previous two.

Tulsa at UTEP (-5, 133.5)10:00E ESPN2

Sole possession of first place in Conference USA is on the line in this late night affair. With Memphis not the dominant team, opportunities exist for others like Tulsa (18-4, 7-11-1 ATS) and UTEP (16-5, 7-10 ATS), who are both 7-1 in league action. The winner of the conference is not guaranteed a spot in the Big Dance; however they improve their case dramatically. The two studs for the Golden Hurricane are seniors Jerome Jordan and Ben Uzoh and they bailed them out in 73-69 win at Marshall Wednesday night, after trailing the majority of the contest. They will be needed again, however Tulsa is just 2-7-1 ATS on the road.

The Miners have won six straight after knocking off Houston 65-58. UTEP has five players averaging 10 or more points and former Louisville bad boy Derrick Caracter should have a terrific battle with Jordan in the paint. The Miners also have 6’11 Arnett Moultrie to work against the 7’0 Jordan. Both teams score in the 70’s and are above average defensively, thus no visible differences in what should a magical night in El Paso for coach Tony Barbee and his club, who has failed to cover their last six home games.

Tulsa has covered last eight meetings (6-2 SU), including previous five at the Don Haskins Center, walking away victorious three times.

Super Tuesday Tilts

The University of Kentucky is ranked third and Michigan State is fifth in the last updated Top 25 poll and each could be in for a real test on Tuesday night. The Wildcats responded nicely from their first loss of the season vanquishing Vanderbilt 85-72 as 8.5-point favorites and they stay in Lexington to host Ole Miss. Wisconsin gives everyone a problem, especially at the Kohl Center, which the Spartans will have to deal with this evening.

For Kentucky, size does matter

The Wildcats tested fate and were finally burned at South Carolina, which gave them their initial loss of the season. Kentucky (20-1, 10-9 ATS) had often built nice leads, all but given them away and been Clutch Cargo at winning time. The necessary plays have come from a variety of competitors, each entrusted by coach John Calipari to come thru when needed. Coach Cal got after his guys to make sure they play a complete game and they never let Vanderbilt build any real confidence in cruising to victory. Big Blue has a big advantage in this matchup with DeMarcus Cousins, Patrick Patterson and Daniel Orton having too much size and skill for the Rebels small front court to match. Calipari coached teams are 28-12 ATS versus offensive teams scoring 77 or more points a game after 15 contests have been played on the season.

Ole Miss (16-5, 11-6 ATS) was picked second in the SEC West and is meeting expectations and hopes to play the role of giant killer in Lexington. The strength of the Rebels is in the guard positions, led by leading scorer Chris Warren. For the Rebels to shock the nation, collectively, this group is going to have to play near perfect, disrupting Kentucky’s offense along with hitting a higher than expected number of shots, since they fight a losing battle on the glass being too small. Mississippi is 3-13 and 7-9 ATS against the Wildcats since 1997.

Mississippi suffered a deflating 80- 73 loss at home to Arkansas, which was delayed one day because of weather issues in Oxford Saturday. That meant one less day to prepare for Kentucky and more tired bodies. The Rebels are 10.5-point underdogs with total of 153 at Bookmaker.com. The most positive news is Ole Miss is 12-4 ATS in road games over the last two seasons and will have come up with strategy-filled (junk) defense to inhibit Cousins in particular.

Sensational freshman guard John Wall caused a stir in the Blue Grass state this past week wondering why his coach was singling him out since in his own words he was playing “OK”. Wall certainly has likely been told his whole basketball life how wonderful he is and Calipari has seen a dip in his production and was trying to motivate him, something he’s not had to deal with. Reports are everything is cool between them and Kentucky is 5-1 and 2-4 ATS at Rupp Arena since 1998 against the Rebels. Game One on Super Tuesday starts at 7 Eastern.

Sparty winning, but not making friends with bettors

Michigan State (19-3, 8-13 ATS) is a perfect 9-0 in the Big Ten, holding a comfortable three game lead over four teams that have three losses. It would be overstating the facts that this has been breeze, especially on the road lately. The Spartans have maneuvered by Minnesota and Michigan by a single digit in each case, trailing the vast majority of each contest. Leading scorer Kalin Lucas was the difference in each ballgame from a team coach Tom Izzo seeks more consistency. Michigan State has won 12 of last 13 Big Ten road games and is 15-4 ATS as visitor playing only their second game in a week over the last two seasons.

Wisconsin is off near upset at Purdue, losing 70-67, having two chances inside final 10 seconds to take the lead. The Badgers (16-5, 11-8 ATS) have been coping without their big man Jon Leuer, however if Keaton Nankivil can shoot the ball anywhere close to last outing (career high 25 points) he improves the chances of Wisconsin handing Spartans their first conference loss. The Badgers have won 17 in a row in Madison (9-6 ATS) and are 31-13 ATS in home games versus good passing teams, averaging 16 or more assists a contest.

The Badgers are part of a contingent in second place in the Big Ten and are a 2.5-point favorite, with total of 123, having won six straight over the Spartans at home (5-1 ATS). Michigan State is 1-4 ATS in last five contests and 1-9 ATS after eight or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons. Wisconsin lost at East Lansing 54-47 on Jan. 6 and is 8-0 UNDER revenging a loss after scoring fewer than 50 points. Bucky Badger is 27-12 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less or pick, while Izzo’s club is 39-23 UNDER when the total is 120 to 129.5.

This anticipated Big Ten battle starts at 9 Eastern or right after the SEC televised showdown.

Badgers try to sweep Boilers

Annually one of the most confounding teams in the country is Wisconsin. Even though Bo Ryan can X and O with the best in college basketball, a look at the roster before the season screams of this school not being in the Top 125 talent-wise. Yet here they are, in second place the Big Ten Conference with 6-2 record, which appears to be improved over recent years. The Badgers (16-4, 10-8 ATS) will lean a little heavier on guard Trevon Hughes, with versatile forward Jon Leuer out three to four more weeks with broken wrist. Wisconsin is 7-3 ATS vs. teams like Purdue allowing 64 or less points a game this season.

Last week, the Boilermakers (16-3, 9-10 ATS) broke their three-game losing skid at Illinois 84-78, getting a lift from unlikely source which seemed to elevate the entire squad. John Hart, who had played all of 33 minutes and wasn’t even in official score book for that game, came off the bench to score 14 points (12 in second half) to lead Purdue charge. Coach Matt Painter hopes this leads to others being productive off the bench which invigorates the team to play more for each other, instead of feeling pressured to produce on individual basis. Purdue is 15-7 ATS in home games after a conference game over the last three seasons.

Wisconsin has seen guard Jordan Taylor rise to the occasion with the absence of Leuer, scoring and displaying all around floor game. This could be challenging spot the Badgers; since they are 4-9-1 ATS in road games vs. teams with a winning home record.

Purdue is still jittery home favorite, sporting 9-1 and .500 spread record. The win at Champaign was followed up with mauling Michigan in first half 43-27, but let backers down in being outscored by six points in final stanza and failing to cover the 13-point spread.

The Boilers have normally blasted the Badgers at home and are on 8-1 SU and ATS run against them, which is why Bookmaker.com has them as 9.5-point favorites. Purdue is 9-2 when playing with three or more days rest, nonetheless is vile 3-8 ATS with this much time to practice.

Wisconsin took the earlier meeting 73-66 at the Kohl Center as one-point home underdogs and has covered six of last seven Thursday throw-downs.

This Big Ten battle is in the 7:00 Eastern Time slot on ESPN with a total of 126 and the Badgers are 1-10 UNDER on the road and Purdue is 6-2 OVER on Thursday nights.

College Basketball Weekend Action and Note

I just want to thankk everyone that dropped by the last 10 days, things have been sparce around 3Daily Winners. I had a horrible cold and have not done anything besides work. No betting, no anything. I finally went to the doctor yesterday and got the drugs I needed to finally break this. I running well behind on many things, but should be back to normal by Monday and might even have stuff for the weekend besides the NFC Wild Card games. Again thanks.

The conference action goes into high gear this weekend, this a number of super matchups that immediately will have an impact on league play throughout the country. Saturday will showcase contests from the Big East, Big Ten, ACC, Big 12 and the Mountain West to name a few. On Sunday, after getting a real scare from Cornell, top-ranked Kansas travels to Knoxville for late afternoon matchup with Tennessee. Lines from Bookmaker.com

Saturday, Jan. 9

Connecticut at Georgetown (-5, 132) 12:00E ESPN

The Huskies (11-3, 4-7-1 ATS) are slowly growing as a team. The offense and defense are not quite to coach Jim Calhoun’s standards, however he’s finding more than enough to build on. Early in the season Calhoun was sometimes frustrated by different player’s efforts, that is no longer the case as he is instead more concerned with the execution. Kemba Walker and Stanley Robinson in particular have been playing well and the UConn team shooting percentage has been rising to present 46.5 percent, running the offense more precisely. Connecticut is 15-6 ATS in January the last few years.

Georgetown (11-2, 5-4 ATS) will be among the teams with the least amount of depth in the Big East, with only nine true scholarship players on the roster along with walk-ons. The Hoyas have a solid seven man rotation which can matchup with almost any team they will face in the league. The issue becomes when they incur foul trouble, suffer an injury that could take a player down for a number of games or if poor performance leaves coach John Thompson III seeking other answers. G-Town has been notoriously poor home team the last few seasons and is 9-21 ATS on home court over the last three seasons.

Since 1997, Connecticut is 4-2 SU and ATS at Georgetown with the total also 4-2 Over.

Purdue at Wisconsin (+1.5,125) 1:30E BTN

Among the couple of different Purdue logos’ floating around is a train with the name built into the black and gold logo. This turns out to be a very apt description of the Boilermakers (14-0, 8-6 ATS) basketball team, as they have steamrolled the competition for the most part this campaign. With the shooting eye still not always in focus, coach Matt Painter’s club has focused on two of his staples, defense and rebounding. Purdue players are so attentive to passing angles they clog the passing lanes like rush hour traffic and are ferocious rebounders, which is particularly important against a club like Wisconsin. The Boilers are 4-10 ATS after a spread cover.

In making preseason prognostications it is impossible to know how certain players will react in college, negatively or positively from year to year. Badgers forward Jon Leuer grew 10 inches in high school and the last 12 months his weight and agility have caught up to his size and he now ranks in the Top 10 in the conference in at least a half dozen categories. This helps explain why Wisconsin (12-3, 8-5 ATS) has been so productive with guards Trevon Hughes and Jason Bohannon running the show. The Badgers normally have low turnover figures which should limit Purdue’s scoring chances and Wisky is 25-8 ATS at home versus teams scoring 77 or more points a game.

The Boilermakers have won and covered four straight over Wisconsin including last two in Madison.

Duke at Georgia Tech (+7, 145) 2:00E ESPN

To this point of the season, this is a different Duke team then in the last few seasons under coach Mike Krzyzewski. The Blue Devils (13-1, 9-4 ATS) still have a great deal panache from the perimeter, however this season Brian Zoubek and the other Duke front court players have given them more production in the paint area and they can negate some other strength’s of opponents. This gives Coach K more options against bigger teams instead of having to play small, which has been the case in recent years. The Dukies are a stellar 63-34 ATS in January.

After falling to Florida State in ACC lid-lifter, Georgia Tech (11-3, 6-3 ATS) returns to conference play with three challenging conflicts starting with Duke. Coach Paul Hewitt brought in a sensational freshmen class and has played four of them extensively, often starting three of them. The Yellow Jackets have been buzzing around on defense, holding opponents to sensational 35.9 percent shooting, which has helped them to fast start. Against teams like Duke, Georgia Tech has to put the ball in the basket with greater consistency to improve on 30-14 ATS record home underdog or pick.

Duke is 10-1 and 8-3 ATS at Alexander Memorial Coliseum in last 11 visits.

Kansas State at Missouri (-5,158) 2:00E ESPN2

On the first of December, coach Frank Martin called out his talented squad, after narrowly defeating Fort Hays State, from the lower regions of collegiate basketball. Accepting responsibility, Kansas State players has been bulldozer, knocking down everything in its path, against pretty descent non-conference competition. Big 12 plays commences for K-State (13-1, 7-2 ATS) at a rugged venue in Columbia. Junior guard Jacob Pullen is among the scoring leaders in the conference, but he is receiving plenty of help from the likes Denis Clemente and others. The Wildcats are creating more turnovers than Pillsbury and are 15-3 ATS after leading their last two games by 10 or more points at the half.

The Missouri players could get arrested with all the thefts of the basketball they have had this season. The Tigers (12-3, 5-4 ATS) have had at least 10 steals in 13 different contests thanks to players like Zaire Taylor, Kim English and Keith Ramsey. Their quickness and understanding of coach Mike Anderson pressure defense makes this a dangerous club even if the baseline players are still trying to win jobs. The Tigers are 9-2 ATS at home vs. teams outscoring their opponents by four or more points a game over the last two seasons.

Missouri has mastered Kansas State at home with 10 wins in last 12 attempts, but is only .500 ATS.

UNLV at New Mexico (-4, 145) 4:00E VERSUS

This will be the close of three stern encounters for UNLV (12-3, 9-4 ATS), having lost the last two to USC and BYU. The Rebels go 11 deep and expect coach Lon Kruger to tighten that number down to nine. Though UNLV has played good defense, the beleif is the continual shuffling of players has at times caused offensive stagnation, with players not getting the ball where they can be most effective. Followers of the program see this team improving on offense, if they run patterned plays and get to the free throw lane. The Rebels are just 1-6 ATS in last seven conference clashes.

New Mexico (14-2, 10-5 ATS) has played better than anticipated, and the same five players have started every game. The Lobos have been outstanding in valuing possession of the ball, committing the fewest turnovers in the Mountain West. Point guard Dairese Gary has a ridiculous 5-to-1 assist/turnover margin and JC transfer Darington Hobson has shown a superb all-around game. New Mexico is 31-12 ATS at The Pit the last three seasons.

The Lobos are 6-3 and 3-5-1 ATS hosting UNLV since 2001.

West Virginia at Notre Dame (+5, 147) 8:00E ESPNU

Notre Dame (13-3, 5-4-1 ATS) plays mostly zone defensive trying to hide defensive deficiencies and for the most part does a pretty solid job in holding opposing teams to 70.7 points per game. West Virginia (12-1, 5-7 ATS) recently had 26 consecutive game streak snapped scoring 70 or more points, however is 49-1 SU under coach Bob Huggins when shooting a higher field-goal percentage than its opponent. Despite incredible depth, the Mountaineers have a lot of walking wounded and would prefer to stay away from shootout with the Irish since they are 0-9 ATS when they allow 75 to 80 points in a game.

Everyone knows the Notre Dame basketball team does their best work at home and this is their chance to at least grab a little national attention, tying to upset West Virginia. Notre Dame has worked to piece together a representative club for league play and would be near the bottom of the Big East without seniors Luke Harangody and Tory Jackson, the stalwarts of the program. Coach Mike Brey will need tremendous performances from this dynamic duo, with the role players stepping up. It about shooting for Notre Dame, who is 13-0 ATS when they make 47 to 53 percent of shot attempts.

West Virginia is 0-8 and 3-5 ATS at South Bend the last 13 years.

Sunday, Jan. 10

Kansas at Tennessee (+6,151) 4:30E CBS

To date Kansas (14-0, 6-5 ATS) has been right on schedule as the nation’s best team, and the schedule had failed to bring the necessary tests to assure the Jayhawks are cohesive on both ends of the floor for 40 minutes, until Cornell contest. Kansas may be 23-8 ATS playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons, but playing in Knoxville with its fans is a demanding task. The emergence of Xavier Henry has overshadowed the personal problems Cole Aldrich has been dealing with family matters. This is precisely the kind of contest vets like Aldrich and guard Sherron Collins have to shine.

The Volunteers (11-2, 5-5 ATS) are 19-5 ATS as a home underdog or pick and master motivator Bruce Pearl will have his squad geeked. He’ll have to with four suspended players, including All-SEC performer Tyler Smith. The four were arrested on drug and weapons charges following a traffic stop after their 66-59 victory over the Tigers on New Year’s Eve. Tennessee has not been knocking down long distance shoots with any regularity (33.7) and it’s hard to imagine they clip Kansas without the three-ball swishing thru the nets. Pearl will look to Wayne Chism, J.P. Prince, and Scotty Hopson to pick up the scoring slack for suspended players and hope Renaldo Woolridge can fill is admirably for Smith.

Top notch test for both teams, with Kansas 17-3 ATS vs. good defensive teams allowing 42 percent or less since last year.

A Nice Pair of College Hoops Matchups

Two games really stand out in college basketball this Wednesday, one a conference matchup between Top 25 teams and the other a sharp non-conference clash which is a measuring stick for both combatants. Wisconsin has emerged as a possible surprise player in the Big Ten and travels to Michigan State. It seems to happen every year, if Syracuse gets off to a fast start, sometime in January they hit a slump of not playing well. Off their first loss of the season at home against Pittsburgh 82-72, The Orangemen will look to keep this to an isolated incident, getting ready for Memphis.

Wisconsin at Michigan State 6:30E BTN

It’s not that Tom Izzo has given up preaching defense; he just has more skilled offensive players and has built his team around their strengths. Michigan State (11-3, 4-9 ATS) is averaging 82.4 points per game, powered by guard Kalin Lucas. The Spartans have the athletes to quickly cash in on turnovers, jetting down the floor for easy scores. Michigan State blasted a good Northwestern squad 91-70 on the road as five-point favorites and is giving 5.5-points to Wisconsin according to DiamondSportsbook.com. Sparty is 11-1 ATS roll as a home favorite by 6.5 or less.

At this point it should come as no surprise; Bo Ryan is a great coach for the Badgers. Wisconsin (8-4 ATS) is never given enough credit, since it lacks the type of big time recruits normally associated with Top 25 programs. Instead, Ryan gets the type of players he feels that have the right work ethic and in his view can get better with hard work through their careers in Madison. Trevon Hughes and Jon Leuer are perfect examples of Ryan’s way of thinking, as each has been a big part of Wisconsin’s 12-2 start and lofty ranking this season. The Badgers are well-suited by physical basketball and are 31-14 ATS versus teams who average 40 or more rebounds a game.
Michigan State has won seven straight conference home openers and is 8-2 and 5-5 ATS against Wisky at home.

Memphis at Syracuse 7:00E ESPN2

Coming into the season, Memphis (10-3, 3-5 ATS) didn’t look like they had the size to be a good rebounding team and it was going to be more dependent on guards to fight for a rebounds that were below the rim. This has largely proven to be true, but the 73-72 loss to Massachusetts brought it home, being outrebounded 44-24. In a one-point defeat, losing 21-4 in second chance points was immense. “I had trouble sleeping, because we gave this game away. -said Roburt Sallie. We’ll see what Memphis learned against Syracuse and see if they improve on 41-23 ATS record as a road underdog or pick.

Syracuse (13-1, 7-3 ATS) lost a large amount of talent, played its toughest non-conference schedule in years and has everyone rethinking how good the Orangemen can really be. Iowa State transfer Wes Johnson has been a cyclone for coach Jim Boehiem leading the Orange in just about everything, including unselfishness. Syracuse observers have marveled how willing this team is to share the ball, with guards Scoop Jardine and Andy Rautins each averaging more than five assists per game. With Rick Jackson and Arinze Onuaku fighting for every rebound, the Orange has a definite advantage in this contest. Boehiem’s bunch is at their best when score 75-80 points. (43-23 ATS)

Even with the loss to Pittsburgh, Syracuse is still 12-4 ATS as a home favorite in last 16 tries and is favored by nine-points with total of 146.5. Memphis hasn’t covered the spread since Dec. 9 and they might have difficulty doing so again as their outside shooting in fair at best, which is a big challenge against the Orangemen’s zone defense.

Lining up two more Bowlers

One of the great aspects of this week leading up to being bombarded by bowl battles, for the next couple of days; you can take them one at a time before the onslaught arrives. This way the sports bettor can sit back and enjoy the games and not have to be consumed with flipping channels, which will come soon enough. Make the time to enjoy the relative serenity of one game at a time, with a pair of contests that offer notable contrasts.

EagleBank Bowl
UCLA vs. Temple
RFK Stadium – Washington, DC
4:30E ESPN

UCLA (6-6, SU & ATS) found out the true meaning of bowl eligible, having to wait two weeks to find out if they had another game or not. When Army lost to Navy, that set into motion the Bruins plans and they head this far East for the first time since 1998, when they traveled to Miami-Fl, however the nation’s capital in late December isn’t exactly South or Santa Monica Beach. Temple (9-3, 8-3 ATS) also had to wait just over a week to find out whom they would play, but they didn’t mind a bit, since the Owls are going bowling for the first time in 31 years. If any team should be jacked, it should be Temple and having a BCS team as opponent just adds to excitement.

Coach Al Golden has turned in one of the better coaching jobs this season, taking a team with definite limitations and almost making to the MAC title game. True freshman Bernard Pierce was sensational, running for 1,308 yards and 15 TDs, essentially in just eight games. Temple averaged 192 yards per game against teams that allowed 157 YPG and the Owls are 23-11 ATS in all games over the last three seasons. The one dimension missing is a passing game, having not thrown for more than 150 yards since Oct.10. With this time off, coach Golden hopes a semblance of passing the pigskin is possible with Temple 8-21 ATS away from home when they gain 100 to 150 net passing yards.

At least the Owls have something to hoot about offensively, that’s more than UCLA can say. The Bruins managed just one more yard of total offense than Temple at 339 yards (albeit vs much tougher competition) and did not run or throw with aplomb. Kevin Prince is presumed to be UCLA’s starting signal caller and could use the help of offensive linemen to block somebody. The Bruins are 4-20 ATS when they run for 100 to 150 yards and Temple surrendered just 109 per game this season.

The UCLA run defense had was run over by teams with a solid run game, however with Owls not being able to fly via the air, the Bruins can pack the box and dare Temple to beat them throwing the ball. UCLA is 17-8 ATS after a spread loss like they suffered against rival USC and Bookmaker.com has them as 4.5-point favorites with total drifting downward to 44.

As mentioned, Temple has to be super excited to play in this game, with better than three decades between bowl appearances and the Owls are 16-6 ATS as underdogs. UCLA didn’t show a substantial amount of improvement, other than becoming eligible to play in this contest and frosty environment against a team with a long losing history, doesn’t figure to make the Bruins charged-up. Their 28-7 loss to the Trojans has UCLA 2-6 ATS off a loss by 20 or more.

Temple has almost no postseason history, having played in bowls in 1978 and 1934. The Owls only took on three teams playing in bowls and was 1-2 and 2-1 ATS in 2009. The Bruins postseason history is much deeper at 13-15-1 with 11-11 ATS. UCLA has performed much better in the role as underdog compared to favorite like they are in the second EagleBank Bowl. They are 5-10 ATS as chalk, including most recent 2-7 spread mark.

3DW Line – Pick

Champs Sports Bowl
Wisconsin vs. Miami-Fl
Citrus Bowl Stadium – Orlando
8:00E ESPN

Wisconsin still has not-so-distant and not-so-pleasant memories of its last trip to the Champs Sports Bowl. That came last December when the Badgers (9-3, 6-6 ATS) were spanked 42-13 by Florida State. For 2009, Miami-Fl. is the opponent, and though head coach Bret Bielema’s team is two games better than it was a year ago, the Hurricanes (9-3, 6-6 ATS) present an imposing challenge. Miami ended up having played one of the country’s tougher schedules featuring eight bowl teams (5-3 SU & ATS). The Badgers were matched against seven postseason participants (4-3, 2-5 ATS) and failed to win or cover versus the last three.

This bowl has had more name changes than the emotions Urban Meyer has gone through in the last week (Tangerine, Blockbuster and Micron PC) and annually has been one of the least competitive bowls, as since 1993 only three games have been decided by a touchdown of less. Maybe a cheap tire company should be the sponsor in the “Blowout Bowl”.

Wisconsin has to have QB Scott Tolzien play well or the Badgers probably can’t win just running with John Clay. They need balance and throwing to talented tight ends and underrated WR Nick Toon, prevents Miami from stuffing the box. Off their demolition of Hawaii (51-10), Wisconsin is 21-6-1 ATS next after conceding 20 or fewer points.

Miami must have quarterback Jacory Harris at the top of his game. The Hurricanes undoubtedly have more offensive weapons, speed and athleticism, however if Harris is under pressure in the pocket, the offense tends not function as proficiently. It would make sense for Miami to play to strengths and come out throwing, testing the Badgers with their speed and determine how they react, which leads to running the ball with Graig Copper and their stable of backs. The Canes have covered five of last seven against teams with winning records.

Miami is a 3.5-point favorite, with total of 57 and despite most recent 7-3 ATS bowl mark, the Hurricanes are 10-24-1 ATS as favorites. The Badgers have covered the number just once in last seven encounters against squads with winning records and are 4-9 ATS as underdogs.

Wisconsin has become a bowl regular and is 9-10 with 9-8 ATS mark. This will be the Badgers sixth straight trip to the Sunshine State for bowl activity and the eighth consecutive time they will be an underdog in the postseason (3-4 SU & 4-3 ATS). Miami is 18-14 as a bowler, with above average 14-10 ATS record. The Hurricanes are 11-9 ATS as faves, but 1-3 ATS the last four times. The ACC team in the Champs Bowl has six-game winning streak with 4-2 ATS record.

3DW Line – Miami by 4

Time to start checking out the College Hoops

With only one contest on the collegiate gridiron Saturday, sports bettor’s interest start to wander more specifically over to the hardwood. This is the first full weekend of televised college basketball and a number of stirring contests are on tap for watching and wagering enjoyment. If you happen to Christmas shopping or lucky enough to get to stay home while somebody else fights the crowds, take the time to get in the mood for college hoops and enjoy.

Saturday, Dec.12

Kentucky at Indiana 12:00E CBS

Coach John Calipari’s club finishes a challenging non-conference slate the last eight days taking on Indiana. Kentucky (9-0, 3-4 ATS) has defeated North Carolina and Connecticut this past week, as his young players get ready for SEC play. Coach Cal has also shown his stern side as head coach, recently reprimanding his most prized pupil John Wall. As you might expect, Wall has only heard people praising his basketball abilities since his youth and seemed genuinely shocked when Calipari expressed his opinion about his play. That sends a very positive message to vets like Patrick Patterson and Perry Stevenson and lets the other talented first year players know who is in charge. Big Blue will have to play defense against Indiana, since they are 2-7 ATS off a spread cover.

The Indiana Hoosiers (4-4 SU & ATS) are more talented than a season ago, however they are far from a finished product for coach Tom Crean. With a squad filled with young players, Indiana fans will have to take the good with the bad. Guard Maurice Creek and Christian Watford have made the steadiest contributions and the coach is thrilled about the effort Verdell Jonnes III is giving, working hard on the glass and transfer Jeremiah Rivers is adding stability in the backcourt. The Hoosiers are 3-9 SU and 4-8 ATS vs. Kentucky.

Ohio State at Butler 12:00E ESPN

The Buckeyes (7-1, 6-2 ATS) got the clinching victory over Florida State 77-64 for the Big Ten in their first ever win against the ACC and moves on to face another rugged opponent, this time on the road. Ohio State’s forward Evan Turner has been a force (now injured) and Jon Diebler is emerging from early season shooting slump and burying three’s again. Coach Thad Matta’s club lacks size and 6’8 Dallas Lauderdale is doing his best to be a factor in the post. Despite tremendous start, sophomore William Buford has been lost and he could be important against balanced Butler squad. The Buckeyes are 14-4 ATS after two or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.

It’s not that the Bulldogs (6-3, 3-6 ATS) are playing poorly; they just weren’t playing Butler basketball. Coach Brad Stevens team may have played in the top early season tourney in Anaheim, but were sloppy in ball-handling and took far too many poor shoots in finishing with 1-2 record. In the loss against Georgetown, they shot 31.4 percent and had no answers for Hoyas center Greg Monroe. What Butler has to do is get back to basics, making the extra pass for the layup or the wide open three-ball shot. This is another big opportunity for the Bulldogs to regain stature, especially at home, if the knock off Ohio State. Butler is 20-11 ATS in non-conference games under coach Stevens.

LaSalle vs Kansas 2:00E ESPNU

Top ranked Kansas (8-0, 3-2 ATS) has not entered any tournaments the last couple of years, preferring to played selected opponents at home, on the road or at neutral sites. Everyone understood the Jayhawks talent deserved a top ranking; however teams that were supposed to push them don’t give the appearance they will. UCLA offered little resistance and upcoming games against Michigan and California might not provide the competition needed for Kansas before Big 12 play. Swingman Xavier Henry is proving to be the perfect compliment as freshman that could keep Kansas at or near the top of the ranking all season. With its high octane offense (90.4 points per game), the Jayhawks are 13-2 ATS when they score 81 or more points.

Though the crowd will be pro-Kansas in Kansas City, at least it’s not a true home game for the Jayhawks, which has to make LaSalle (6-2,2-3 ATS) feel a bit better. The Explorers do have talented individuals like guard Rodney Green, its top scorer. Kimmani Barrett and Jerrell Williams both have the ability to fill up the basket and freshman big man Aaric Murray will find out how much progress he’s made going up against Cole Aldrich. LaSalle has to maintain poise and if they do, the Explorers could improve on 19-9 ATS record as underdogs of 10 or more.

Georgetown vs Washington 2:00E FSN

This is a solid opening matchup for the John Wooden Classic in Anaheim. Georgetown (7-0, 2-1 ATS) has a trio of players that can matchup with any in the country. With Greg Monroe patrolling the paint, Austin Freeman making things happen from the wing and Chris Wright handling the rock, the Hoyas can ball. Where the view turns to 20-50 vision is when one of the trio has an off-night. Julian Vaughn has the ability to be reliable scorer and rebounder and sophomore Jason Clark has the length and quickness to be lock-down defender. The bench, what bench? G-Town is 11-19 ATS in all lined games over the last two seasons.

Coach Lorenzo Romar’s U-Dub squad is acquiring some good battle scars. Washington (6-1, 1-6 ATS) has been pushed by Wright State, Montana and lost to Texas Tech in OT, while the starters have learned to play together and a feisty bench has added a spark. Leading scorer Quincy Pondexter and Isaiah Thomas are going to be at the forefront, nonetheless junior Venoy Overton and long-range shooting reserve Elston Turner add greater flexibility for team that is 37-20 ATS away from home vs. foe outscoring opponent by eight points or more a game.

Marquette at Wisconsin 5:00E ESPN2

Shhh, quiet, if you listen intently, you can still here a couple dozen Badgers fans partying from the upset win over Duke. As per usual, nothing much was expected from Wisconsin (6-2, 3-3 ATS), however few work the chalkboard better than coach Bo Ryan. Guard Trevon Hughes is the leader of Badger attack and he is complimented by a group of players that don’t make mistakes and play defense that always leads opposing player into anther defender. This conflict is HUGE deal in the Badger State and Wisky is 25-12 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less or pick.

Marquette (7-2, 3-2 ATS) was supposed to disappear, after losing “triplets” from last season, whom all finished in the Top 10 in scoring in Golden Eagles history. But senior forward Lazar Hayward is having none of that talk. Marquette will have size issues all year, but the amount of quickness will catch more than one unassuming competitor off-guard. Darius Johnson-Odom has a nice upside and swingman Jimmy Butler finds ways to score. Coach Buzz Williams team isn’t going to win the Big East, nevertheless, they will have say. The Golden Eagles are 2-4 SU in Madison, yet have four covers. The UNDER is 6-1 in last seven encounters.

Virginia Tech at Penn State 7:00E ESPN2

No its not another Big Ten/ACC Challenge contest, this was just part of the regular scheduling between these universities. Virginia Tech (7-1, 2-4 ATS) has already claimed one Big Ten victim, Iowa, and seeks another on the road. The Hokies tend to be erratic offensively, as there are few answers beyond guard Malcolm Delaney and forward Jeff Allen. It is tantamount neither gets in foul trouble, which occurred in loss to Temple. Watch the line closely on this matchup, with Virginia Tech 3-16 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 since 1997.

The Basketball Prospectus website has come with something called the “Degree of DeChellis”. Named after the Penn State coach, it factors an element that the Nittany Lions continually out-play --per possession performance. The basic principle of this exercise is Penn State (6-3, 4-4 ATS), under DeChellis, continually outperforms year after year expectations and common game situations. He has them playing competitively, despite being out-gunned most nights. He’s not on anybody’s top coaches list, but he works with what he has as good or better than any coach. DeChellis’ teams are 6-0 ATS playing a team with a winnng record.

Purdue at Alabama 9:00E ESPN2

Purdue (8-0, 5-3 ATS) is enjoying its highest ranking in 13 years in the Top 25 and they are starting to look like are going to be the team to beat in the Big Ten. In winning the Paradise Jam and handling Wake Forest, they have shown diversity in style of play. The offense has a vast array of ways to score inside or outside and the defense can play lockdown opposing team’s offensive sets. One difference over the last couple years that has manifested itself, the Boilermakers have another gear, a Usain Bolt if you will, with E’Twaun Moore at the controls. Purdue is 6-1 ATS on the road after three or more home games.

By most accounts of those that follow SEC basketball, Alabama (6-2, 4-2 ATS) has underachieved the last several seasons, held hostage by the health of point guard Ronald Steele and former coach Mark Gottfried’s apparent inability to get the most out of team. New coach Anthony Grant is already turning a few heads with the Crimson Tide’s smarter play. He’s leaning on veteran guards like Mikhail Torrance and Charvez Davis, especially with Andrew Steele out with stress fracture. This could be early signature win Grant is looking for and the Tide is 18-7 ATS as a home underdog or pick since 1997.

Sunday, Dec.13

Cincinnati at Xavier 7:00E ESPNU

There are special rivalries all across the college basketball landscape, but when the teams are in the same city and the players facing one another in playground battles most of the year, this takes the emotion to the next level. This Queen City battle is bitter and often very physical, which suits Cincinnati (6-1, 3-2 ATS) just fine. Guard Deonta Vaughn is the unquestioned leader of this team. Yancy Gates, Rashad Bishop, Lance Stephenson, and Cashmere Wright are a stellar supporting cast. This team could be a much larger factor in the Big East than previously given credit for, especially if the lauded frosh Stephenson blossoms. The Bearcats are respectable 22-15 ATS as underdogs.

Xavier basketball has been on a high plane the last few years, averaging better than 27 wins per season, and former assistant Chris Mack is entrusted with keeping the program rolling. Guard Jordan Crawford and center Jason Love are the leading scorers for the Musketeers (5-3, 4-3 ATS), however beyond this twosome; points are iffy game in and game out. In losses to Baylor, Marquette and Kansas State, Xavier shot below 38 percent. The Musketeers have won eight of last 12 encounters (7-4-1 ATS), including five of last six at home (3-3 ATS).

Top College Football Games to Consider

For this Saturday on the collegiate gridiron, two longstanding rivalries top the schedule. The evenly divided Cotton Bowl, half burnt orange and half red, presents a perfect setting for the Red River Rivalry, with the winner again taking command of the Big 12 South. The best annual intersectional rivalry resumes with USC traveling to South Bend. An influential Big Ten battle has Iowa at Wisconsin and the same goes in the ACC with Virginia Tech visiting Georgia Tech. Nebraska still hasn’t forgotten 70-10 loss to Texas Tech five years ago and would love to lay out the Red Raiders. Can the Ol’ ball coach work magic and upset No. 2 Alabama? Everything will be determined on another great Saturday of college football action. Lines courtesy of Bookmaker.com.

Oklahoma (+3, 52) vs Texas 12:00E ABC

For Oklahoma (3-2, 2-3 ATS), it has been a tough go in 2009. Having to play without its Heisman Trophy quarterback for most of the season, potential All-American tight end and recently losing its best receiver. Despite having more problems than David Letterman, the Sooners still control their own destiny with a win over archrival Texas. Like most coaches, Bob Stoops doesn’t worry about whose not there, instead trying to get the most out of who is. Sam Bradford played last week in Baylor bounce back win 33-7 and is having to go without TE Jermaine Gresham for the season and WR Ryan Broyles is questionable. Another factor in this equation is a defense lacking in big stops. In spite of nine starters returning and No.9 ranking, the Oklahoma defense did not made an important shutdown in their losses to BYU or Miami. The Sooners are 1-3 in last four meetings and haven’t covered since 2004.

As Texas (5-0, 1-4 ATS) found out last season, beating Oklahoma isn’t enough and they have to keep focused with road games at Missouri and Oklahoma State up next. Colt McCoy hasn’t been quite the quarterback he was a season ago, but still having a very good 2009 campaign. He’s been helped by a running back by committee this season, as coach Mack Brown has gone with the hot hand and kept feeding the ball to that back. What might make the difference for the Longhorns this season is the defense (No.4 overall). The defensive line was hit by graduation, nonetheless defensive coordinator Will Muschamp has pleaded with his team about the importance of seizing the momentum with key stops and turnovers and its paid dividends. Texas is 5-12 ATS vs ranked teams on neutral fields.

The underdog is 14-7 ATS since 1988 in Red River Rivalry’s, with the margin of victory 10 or more points in 10 of last 11 battles. The Longhorns are 6-18 ATS away from home after five or more consecutive straight up wins. The Sooners are 8-1 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better over the last two seasons. Oklahoma is 6-2 ATS as road underdog under coach Stoops, upset in the making?

3DWLine – Texas by 2

Iowa (+2.5, 47.5) at Wisconsin 12:00E ESPN

If a person is ardent fan of Big Ten football, than you know Wisconsin hates Iowa. Neither school would consider the other its biggest rival, nevertheless Badger fans detest Iowans. After losing at Ohio State last week 31-13, Wisconsin (5-1, 2-3 ATS) is setup nicely to run the table in the conference after their upcoming bye week. Running back John Clay has dropped a few calories and is back to running hard behind an improving offense line, with Badgers rushing for over 200 yards per game. Quarterback Scott Tolzien has more weapons at his disposal than what was believed in the preseason, with better athletes manning skill positions. Coach Brett Bielema and his defensive staff have out-maneuvered opponents with attacking defense. The Badgers are 20-11 ATS as single digit Big Ten favorites.

Coach Kirk Ferentz has never big on style over substance, which is why he’s pleased with Iowa’s 6-0 record. Closer than anticipated victories over Northern Iowa (17-16) and Arkansas State (24-21) are much better than a loss from Ferentz point of view. After last week’s thrilling 30-28 victory against Michigan, the Hawkeyes hit the road for a pair. Top priority is stopping the Wisconsin run game and making the Badgers as one-dimensional as possible. This strategy worked versus Arizona and Penn State and Iowa is confident it can work again. On offense, quarterback Ricky Stanzi has hit a few big plays the last couple of weeks and Wisky is vulnerable in the secondary, allowing 210.3 yards per game against opponents that only throw for 174 YPG. Iowa is 5-9 ATS in the first of two road games.

The Hawkeyes are 19-10-1 ATS since the turn of the century as conference dogs of 9.5 or less and they are 6-1 ATS facing the Badgers. Wisconsin has not covered last three tilts at home against the Iowa and the underdog is 4-0 ATS in Madison.

3DW Line – Wisconsin by 1

USC (-10, 50) at Notre Dame 3:30E NBC

Forget all the come-from-behind wins, forget the 4-1 record and forget Jimmy Clausen Heisman talk, for Notre Dame followers and detractors, this is the benchmark game of the season. The Fighting Irish have a BCS bowl offense and an International Bowl defense. Notre Dame (1-4 ATS) has lost seven in a row to USC (1-6 ATS) and six of those games, the Trojans margin of victory has been Nancy Pelosi eye-opening 31 points per game. Charley Weis and his team feel this team is different, having a potential All-American quarterback and an offense that keeps overcoming the defenses’ flaws. The two biggest factors for Notre Dame will be keeping Clausen in vertical position and the ability of Irish defenders to keep USC out of the end zone. Notre Dame is 11-27 ATS having won four out of their last five games.

If the California game is precursor of USC’s true abilities, watch out. The Trojans (4-1, 2-3 ATS) defense tamed the Bears like a zoo keeper and now has similar numbers to last year’s unbelievable group. QB Matt Barkley was productive against Cal and won’t be intimidated at South Bend, having played at Columbus and at Berkeley already. Pete Carroll is pleased to report injured players like wide receiver Ronald Johnson should be back, which can open up the Trojan playbook. The Men of Troy are 39-7 and 29-17 ATS in non-conference action.

Rest assured, USC has no problem playing the Irish since they have a “who’s your daddy sticker” on them. The Trojans are 14-3 ATS with two or more weeks of preparation and figure to be in good shape wanting to continue domination. This has to be a “Wake up the Echoes” game for Notre Dame. Somehow, someway they find a way and pull the upset and move to 5-2 ATS as home underdog against Top 10 team.

3DW Line – USC by 3

Texas Tech (+11, 61) at Nebraska 3:30E ABC/GP

With regular starting quarterback Taylor Potts out with concussion for undetermined amount of time, coach Mike Leach looks on building the confidence of his backup Steven Sheffield. Leach not only likes his quick delivery, but his mobility also. “Of our quarterbacks we have right now, he creates the best tempo for the group,” said Leach. The Texas Tech head man as other issues, like an offensive line that is allowing too much pressure on his pigskin passers. That needs to be solved with Nebraska’s ability to turn up the heat. They will face a strong Huskers running game (5.2 yards per carry), however the Red Raiders (4-2, 3-2 ATS) are 15-4 ATS versus excellent rushing teams averaging 5.25 or more rushing yards per carry.

Playing in a steady downpour, it’s hard to look overly impressive; nonetheless Nebraska (5-0 ATS) played 15 minutes of football that will be remembered in Lincoln. Down 12-0 after three quarters at Missouri, the Cornhuskers scored the game’s last 27 points to raise record to 4-1. Led by likely All-American defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, he and his defense teammates took over the game and a soggy Nebraska offense cashed in on their opportunities. If coach Bo Pelini’s squad can win this Big 12 contest, this sets up for the Cornhuskers to be 7-1 when they host Oklahoma on Nov.7. Nebraska is 7-3 ATS in the first or two or more home games.

Nebraska has dropped three straight to Texas Tech after winning the first seven meetings in the series. No Cornhusker fan will ever forget the 2004, 70-10 massacre in Lubbock and returning the favor would be the sweetest revenge. The Huskers are 15-3 ATS in home games vs. good offensive teams scoring 34 or more points a game. This has become a potentially ruse line, with Nebraska money flooding in from opening line of the Huskers at -6.

3DW Line – Nebraska by 9

Virginia Tech (-3, 52) at Georgia Tech 6:00E ESPN2

Virginia Tech (5-1, 3-3 ATS) buried Boston College 48-14 at home and has rugged assignment. The Hokies defensive front will be put to the test against the Georgia Tech option offense. This isn’t your vintage Frank Beamer defense, allowing over 123 yards rushing per game and not in the Top 25 in total defense (34th). This will be another tester in terms of desire to succeed and hold the line. Virginia Tech might gain one advantage if Tyrod Taylor continues to throw the ball well, since the Yellow Jackets are a rambling wreck against the pass, being burned for over 249 yards a game. Hokie offensive football is still based around the running game and they will have to run the pigskin on the ground to be successful. The Hokies are sensational 17-3 ATS as a road favorite of seven points or less.

Georgia Tech (5-1, 3-2 ATS) has a Sesame Street lineup having three games against teams that start with the letter V (Virginia and Vanderbilt on deck) in a row. The success the Yellow Jackets have enjoyed this season is when they attack early, both on offense and defense. The option will bog down from time to time, which means if Josh Nesbitt can get things started quickly, that helps momentum, particularly helpful in front of the throng at Bobby Dodd Stadium. The defense has been plagued by missed assignments in the secondary and poor tackling. The Jackets will look to crank up the running game and are 17-6 ATS when they rush for 5.5 or more yards per attempt.

Virginia Tech has won four of the last five tilts; with the road team 5-1 ATS in recent clashes. Prior to last season’s 20-17 Hokies win, the average margin of victory was 23 points per game.

3DW Line – Virginia Tech by 5

South Carolina (+17.5, 45) at Alabama 7:45E ESPN

This has to rank among the stranger seasons the ol’ ball coach has had being a head coach (working for Daniel Snyder not included). The defense lost a ton of talent from last year, yet South Carolina (5-1, 4-1 ATS) has only conceded more than 17 points twice this season. Despite constant shuffling in the offense line, the Gamecocks total on average just over 370 yards per game, not bad considering the turmoil. Senior linebacker and captain Eric Norwood finds a way to make an impact in every game and he will need to in a big way to slow down the Alabama attack. South Carolina is 9-4-1 ATS as road underdogs under coach Steve Spurrier.

Coming into the season, Crimson Tide (6-0, 5-1 ATS) backers thought their team had the potential to be even better than last year’s club that took 12-0 record into the SEC title game. The 55 returning lettermen are all physically stronger and a year wiser to coach Nick Saban’s no nonsense approach and if quarterback Greg McElroy could come thru, no telling how far Alabama could rise. McElroy has been tremendous and other pieces have fallen into place. Sophomore running back Mark Ingram has been as good as advertised, but tight end transfer Colin Peek is really fitting in, as he and McElroy have gotten more comfortable with each other. The Tide is 9-22-2 ATS in SEC home games, which includes three straight covers.

This is the first of trio of conference home games for Bama, who is 9-16-1 ATS when favored by 10 or more points. In studying Crimson Tide trends, most have come from the past and under coach Saban, most everything has been a lot different. For proof, check out 9-2 ATS record after a win by 17 or more points over the last two seasons, winning by 21.6 points per game. These teams last met in 2005 and the visitor has covered the oddsmakers number the last three times.
3DW Line – Alabama by 17