Reviewing the Friday Early Line Moves

The wagering public has had more time to dissect the Friday numbers and they have come up with interesting choices on the Friday afternoon or morning matchups depending on one’s time zone. What did these people see that maybe you didn’t or what do you know something they don’t?

The one contest the public felt the strongest about is the Texas A&M and Utah State total. At DonBest.com, they show this game opening at 129.5 and have seen it be in free fall down to 125. The reasoning for is not readily apparent, at least by how each team plays. Texas A&M averages just over 133 total points per game and 129.6 points away from College Station. Utah State is over 136 total points in all games they have played and even higher on the road at 139 exactly.

The general tendency would be to believe the pace will be slowed down for a tournament tilt and the Aggies from Logan, UT are 14-5 UNDER after allowing 30 points or less in the first half in two straight games. Texas A&M is 11-3 UNDER in road games after one or more consecutive losses. Both are good defensive squads, thus it will be curious to see what occurs.

The Purdue and Siena contest, which will be the first game in Spokane, figured to have movement at least in one direction. All week people have been talking about the Boilermakers lopsided loss to Minnesota in the Big Ten tourney and they will face a veteran Siena team that knocked off higher-seeded teams in each of the last two NCAA tournaments. Purdue opened as five-point favorites and have fallen to four at Sportsbook.com and most other wagering outlets.
Even before Robbie Hummel’s season ending injury, Purdue was not a good wager and is 2-11 ATS having won eight or more of their last 10 games this season. Siena figures to be more focused than they were in MAAC champion game where they had to overcome huge deficit to win over Fairfield 72-65 to survive as nine-point favorites. On the years, the Saints are holier than thou 10-2 ATS after failing to cover the spread.

The total on this 4 vs. 13 encounter has fallen 1.5-points to 130 and this seems a little less certain. If Siena is really ready to pull the upset, the number coming down is justified, as the Saints are 11-4 UNDER having won 12 or more of their last 15 contests. However, the Boilermakers are 14-4 OVER in road games after failing to cover four or five of their last six against the spread.

Many have no idea who Oakland U. is (Summit League champions) and even fewer would know where they are from (Rochester, MI). The Golden Grizzlies are veteran bunch, with two seniors and three juniors in the starting lineup, making their second NCAA appearance in three years. Oakland U. averages 76.8 points per game and the contests they have played that had oddsmakers numbers, they are 10-4 OVER. Why than is the total headed downward against third-seeded Pittsburgh?

Three factors are in play. The Golden Grizzlies played four teams in this tournament, averaging just 54.5 points a contest. The Panthers of Pitt hold opposing teams to 40 percent shooting and neutral court teams off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog like Oakland, in a game involving two teams with win percentage of 60 to 80 percent, are 46-19 UNDER.

The Cornell story is ideal for the Cinderella in March, their misfortune, at least on the surface is drawing one of the hottest teams in the tournament in Temple. The Owls have flown to 10 consecutive wins (8-2 ATS) in being the A-10 champions for the third year in a row. This doesn’t stop the Big Red from having a chance to pull the upset and lines are trending towards university from Ithaca, NY. No one is going to confuse the Ivy League with the Atlantic 10, especially this season. Yet this isn’t your grandpa’s Cornell club. The Big Red shoot the ball expertly (48.1 percent) and drain the three-ball at 43.4 percent rate. They also have a rarity, a 7’0 center in Jeff Foote, who’s a solid player.

No question Temple deserves all the accolades coming their way, however one aspect deserves a further look. In common opponents this season, Cornell is 5-3 SU & ATS, with +2.9 scoring margin. The Owls against these same opponents are 7-2, with 4-5 ATS record and score differential of +5.9. The public might be on to something.

Missouri and Clemson are essentially mere images of one another, pressing teams that love to force turnovers and disrupt opponents into numerous miscues. Mizzou has veterans from last year’s Elite 8 club and they force 10.9 steals and 20 turnovers per contest, leading the nation in both categories. The Tigers of Clemson are ninth in the country in steals at 9.6 per game and they convert on seven shots from beyond the arc. Missouri also is not afraid to launch the three ball either, making eight of their own an outing.

The total opened at 138 and is up 2.5-points. With both teams ability to force turnovers, that usually leads to points. Each has faced a pressing defense in practice all season and should know how to attack once they break the press, taking the ball to the basket. Missouri is 10-1 OVER in last 11 NCAA battles and Clemson is 24-10 OVER after two or more consecutive Under’s.

Time to get serious about wagering college basketball

What a weird weekend for television viewing in college hoops. With conference races heating up, to be taken seriously as college basketball bettor you have to know the surroundings. While ESPN for the most part does fine work in identify quality matchups, they first are concerned about ratings. And while a lot of people like to watch and wager, do really trite matchups like Oklahoma and Oklahoma State and N.C. State and North Carolina really hold anyone’s interest these days, unless you attended those universities, even during rivalry week. We’ll have information on many of the key games that are televised, however we also will inform readers about important contests like those in the Big Sky and Colonial Athletic Conferences, where something is at stake. Are you with me here! I thought so. Lines from Bookmaker.com.

Saturday, Feb. 13

Maryland at Duke (-10, 147.5)1:00E CBS

Before the season began, the general feeling was the ACC might be more competitive top to bottom than in years. Those beliefs have been prophetic and this will be a matchup that will help sort out the logjam. Maryland (16-6, 10-7 ATS) has nice collection of players, but for them to emerge victorious, forward Landon Milbourne and guard Greivis Vasquez have to be the Terps top point producers. Look for Duke to play rough and do some talking, since Vasquez can get off his game, flapping the lips and being too emotional. Maryland is 16-7 AT in road games when facing a team with a winning record past the midpoint of season and is 5-2 and 5-1 ATS in true away games this season.

Duke (20-4, 15-8 ATS) looked like a tired squad in loss to Georgetown at the end of January, playing four games in 10 days. Now this ACC clash will be their fourth in nine days, at least they will have the crowd support to spur them on. The Blue Devils could really use Kyle Singler to begin filling the bucket with greater regularity, since the team has become too dependent of Jon Scheyer to do everything. Singler has to hit medium and three-point shots to open up the lane for players in the paint, which in turn opens up jump shooters to have clearer looks. Duke is 8-1 ATS vs. good passing teams, averaging 16 or more assists a contest.

Maryland is 8-1 ATS in 2010 and Duke is 13-0 and 9-3 ATS at Cameron Indoor. What will happen, the outright winner is 13-0-1 ATS in last 14 encounters for the only teams with two ACC losses.

Missouri at Baylor (-4, 144.5) 1:45E Big 12 Network

The Tigers and Bears are looking to move up in the Big 12 standings and do battle in Baylor. Missouri’s style is to pressure the entire court, nonetheless that is nearly impossible to do unless they make shots, which sets up the press. A quick perusal of Mizzou’s season shows most losses have occurred on off-shooting outings. Make baskets and the Tigers (18-6, 10-8 ATS) are 13-5 ATS versus offensive teams scoring 77 or more points a game.

This is important contest for Baylor (18-5, 11-5 ATS), since they will either be favored or a short road underdog in next five Big 12 engagements. The Bears follow the lead of guard Tweety Carter, who can score or dish. The Baylor big people add more than expected and do nice work cleaning the glass. That point is meaningful since Missouri will force turnovers, making rebounding a must to control an aspect of the contest. The Bears are 22-9 AT against teams who make eight or more 3-point shots a game.

Baylor has covered last six meetings in Waco, winning four times.

Rhode Island at Temple (-4.5, 133) 4:00E Comcast

A glance at the A-10 standings shows this race is going down to final weekend to crown regular season champion, with seven teams having either two or three league losses. One of the matchups that will help determine the eventual outcome is this tilt. Rhode Island (19-4, 8-10-2 ATS) would make Al Davis smile, since all they do is win. That method of play makes the Rams a poor play at home and swell choice on the road as 8-2 and 6-2-2 ATS proves. On game by game basis, Rhode Island has a lot of answers to take down opposing clubs.

No. 21 Temple (19-5, 14-10 ATS) has put together an impressive body of work in 2009-10. Victories over Villanova, Siena and Virginia Tech, along with its strong play in the A-10 makes the Owls a hoot. All year Temple has been among the best teams in college basketball in fewest points allowed (57.6), yet is not deficient in scoring (65.0), like other comparable units. This is not a squib; the Owls are 32-13 ATS against conference opponents over the last three seasons.

Rhode Island tries to prevent season sweep, however is 2-9 and 4-7 ATS at the Liacouras Center, against a Temple team that is 10-1 and 7-4 ATS on its home court.

George Mason at Old Dominion (-13.5, 122.5)4:00E Comcast-DC

These two squads trail Northeastern by a game in the Colonial Conference at 13-3 and each will look to at least keep pace Saturday afternoon. George Mason (16-9, 10-11-1 ATS) was school record 10-1 in January (6-4-1 ATS) and has stumbled a couple of times this month at Georgia State and at Drexel. The Patriots are young team and they are about to find just how good they really are. With guard Cam Long their best player, George Mason is 6-2 ATS on Saturday’s.

Old Dominion (19-7, 8-13-1 ATS) was pasted by the Patriots 71-55 as six-point road favorites on Jan. 2, before anyone realized how good they might be. The Monarchs are built around playing solid defense, permitting a meager 55.2 points per game. ODU came together as a team when Kent Bazemore was paired with Darius James in the backcourt. Old Dominion is 12-0 at the Constant Convocation Center, winning by whopping 19.8 PPG, however is only 3-5-1 ATS.

Watch the underdog in this one, who is sporting 6-2 ATS mark

Memphis at Tulsa (-2.5, 132) 7:00E ESPN2

Memphis fans are finding out what it is like to no longer be elite. The Tigers have been clipped for a couple of C-USA losses, as Tigers’ fan jealously think of how John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins would have looked in Memphis blue. The Tigers (17-7, 6-13 ATS) are no longer privileged, going just seven deep and six players absorbing the majority of the minutes. Coach Josh Pastner knows what he will receive most nights from the backcourt, up front, not so much. Memphis is just 1-6 ATS against clubs with winning home record.

Tulsa (19-5, 7-13-1 ATS) has two exemplary players in guard Ben Uzoh and center Jerome Jordan and they are the only two to start every game this season. With Memphis finally vulnerable, the senior duo understands this is their time and they want to be the top dog of the league. The Golden Hurricane can board, leading the conference in rebound margin, but get very few easy baskets ranking last in creating turnovers. Tulsa still has other taxing affairs ahead, yet a win here breeds confidence for a team that is 12-3 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less or pick.

Both teams have two conference losses and trail once beaten UTEP. The loser could be out of C-USA contention and Memphis likes their chances since they have won last 10 of 11 (6-5 ATS), including last four visits to Tulsa, covering three times.

Northern Colorado at Weber State (-4.5, 148 ) 9:00E

In the Big Sky Conference, Northern Colorado (20-5, 11-11 ATS) attempts to catch Weber State (16-8, 12-8 ATS) for first place. Will Figures and Devon Beitzel are the Bears two leading scorers this team is at its best against quality competition with 8-3 ATS record vs. outfits with a winning record.

Weber State is at the head of the conference leaderboard, having won six of seven since losing at Northern Colorado. The Wildcats are trying to win their second straight regular-season conference championship which is meaningful since the regular-season champ plays host to the semifinals and championship game of the league tournament. A usual, Weber State is tyrant at home with 10-1 mark and 5-3 ATS record. They have covered 41 of last 61 home games.

Northern Colorado is the underdog and covered the spread last night for the first time since beating Weber State eight games ago.

Tennessee at Kentucky (-9.5, 147) 9:00E ESPN

You have to tip your cap to coach Bruce Pearl. While most coaches and players talk about overcoming adversity, which many people never quite grasp, this Tennessee (18-5, 9-11 ATS) club really has with earlier suspensions that rocked the team. It says a lot about the coach and players. Though basketball is a team game, each individual had to make conscious decision to played better, work harder and the basketball world marvels at what the Volunteers have been able to accomplish since the new year began. Pearl will need another trick up his sleeve at Kentucky; however the Vols are 6-3 ATS as road underdogs.

All the early discussion was how terrific guard John Wall was the best point guard since Jason Kidd coming into college. Wall has not disappointed anyone with his singular play, but as the season has worn on, center DeMarcus Cousins has turned into a double-double machine. He wants the ball when Kentucky (23-1, 11-11 ATS) needs a basket and as opposed to many 6’11 big guys, he’s got a good stroke from the free throw line. One of the most striking aspects of these two and fellow freshman Eric Bledsoe, they love to compete and when Big Blue is off a non-cover like what happened against Alabama the last time out, they are 20-8 ATS, including this group at 10-0 and 7-1 ATS.

The Wildcats have taken 10 of last 12 at Rupp Arena vs. the Vols, thou are 6-6 ATS.

Sunday, Feb. 14

Ohio State at Illinois (+1.5, 137) 1:00E CBS

This matchup has Big Ten Network written all over two weeks ago, instead it’s an indicator of who might emerge as conference champions. Illinois (17-8, 9-13-1 ATS) was NIT bound after losing three league games in a row in the middle of January. Nobody gave them much a chance, since they still had the meat of their schedule ahead, however three wins gave the team confidence, which were followed by upsets of Michigan State and Wisconsin and an overzealous Brent Musburger has Bruce Webber up for coach of the year with this turnaround. What Webber really did is punish bad behavior from various players by giving them splinter time and they have roared back. The Fighting Illini are 12-1 in Champaign and perfect 9-0 as home favorites, though 3-6 ATS.

Ohio State (19-6, 12-13 ATS) has won eight of nine (5-4 ATS) to crawl back into Big Ten chase. The return of Evan Turner has made this team complete and they are hell-bent on winning it all since Turner is likely to enter NBA Draft after the season. Turner’s ability to score allows William Buford and David Lighty to find more open shots. Illinois will also have to contend with center Dallas Lauderdale, who is a load in the low blocks. The Buckeyes are 3-7 ATS away from Columbus and Thad Matta coached teams are 6-17 ATS after making 20 percent from the three-point arc.

The Illini are 6-3 SU and ATS hosting Ohio State and swept them last season.

Louisville at Syracuse (-8, 150.5) 1:00E ESPN

Louisville (15-9, 7-12 ATS) has not met lowered expectations from a season ago, facing a slate loaded with landmines. The Cardinals have been on the short side of a number of road games in the Big East, however Rick Pitino isn’t about to lay all the blame on his players. “I’ve had it with the officiating (in the conference). That’s why I’m not going to say anymore. I’ve had it.”—Coach Pitino. He’ll hope the zebras won’t be an issue on Valentine’s Day, with his club 14-5 ATS in February games over the last three seasons.

Syracuse (24-1, 15-6 ATS) caught many prognosticators off guard in November, yet this club has methodically gone about its basketball business and keeps winning games. The Orangemen have suffered a couple of sleepy starts in recent weeks, but showed their talent and grit in overcoming Georgetown and DePaul. If Syracuse is really Final Four material, over the next month have to be less risky when handling the ball, trying to make too many ESPN highlight plays. Facing a pressing Louisville squad could be a step in the right direction for a team that is 13-5 ATS playing a team with a winning record this season.

The Orange is 2-5 and 1-5-1 ATS vs. the ‘Ville in last 12 years.

Missouri and Kansas Clash in Border War

Missouri was chosen as the seventh best team in the Big 12 before the season and early on that figure was befitting of their play. Yet, as the team worked together, they developed chemistry and all the hard work is paying off having won 10 of 11 (5-2 ATS). Last season’s Elite Eight club suffered key losses, but that experience taught the returning players about what it takes to play at high level. The Tigers (15-4, 8-5 ATS) mentally grinding pressure makes them 16-6 ATS versus offensive teams like Kansas scoring 77 or more points a game, including 6-0 against the spread this season.

The loss to Tennessee might have been a good thing for Kansas (18-1, 8-7-1 ATS), as players and coaches were able to get back on the same page. The Jayhawks are as talented as any team in the land and all players that see major minutes have aspirations of playing at the next level, which can become a distraction for coaches. Bill Self has stressed the importance of playing for each other and winning the Big 12, earning No. 1 seed, which allows the other aspects to take care of themselves. Kansas is sick 17-3-1 ATS playing against a team with a winning record past the midpoint of the regular season the last two years.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Kansas listed as 12-point home favorites with total of 150, which works out to projected score of 81-69, which sounds off since Missouri averages 81.6 points per contest, however their point total falls off on the road where they’ve scored 70.9 PPG in seven road conflicts.

Missouri is 13-3 ATS having won two of their last three games since last season and is 6-0 ATS after playing a home game this year. The Tigers have to be aggressive and look to force their 20.9 turnovers per game, which is the best in the country. Misso is 11-2 OVER as a road underdog or pick the last three seasons.

Since losing to the Vols, the Jayhawks have won four in a row (2-1-1 ATS) and one player in particular is returning to his old form. Center Cole Aldrich has faced several issues of late, including dealing with the loss of his grandmother last week and he bounced back with his first double-double since Jan. 2 at Iowa State Saturday. “It just feels good to be back,” Aldrich said. “I’ve been through a lot of stuff. It’s tough and it weighs on me, but I’m just going out and giving it my heart.” The Tigers are 11-2 ATS after playing a road game and are 13-4 UNDER off a win against a conference rival since last year.

Jayhawks are laudable 10-1 and 6-4-1 ATS in Missouri’s last 11 visits to Lawrence and this Border War begins at approximately 9 Eastern on ESPN.

New Year's Eve Treats

New Year’s Eve means the first of 15 bowls over the next three days. This is no place for the droopy-eyed sports bettor, this where you go on the attack. This is not the time to drink too much or eat too much. Life is all about moderation. No you don’t need to be a hermit, it’s not like the Peach Bowl is must see TV, rather enjoy the evening have laughs with friends and check your bets frequently however slick you have to be to pull it off. Preparation is the key is watching all these games over the 72 hours and I pity the fool who thinks he’s superman and parties like it’s 1999 and is going to make power-nap work in the context of halftime without having practiced. Lines from Bookmaker.com

Armed Forces Bowl
Air Force vs. Houston (-5, 63)
Amon Carter Stadium – Fort Worth
12:00E ESPN

It’s déjà vu all over again for Air Force and Houston, opponents for a second straight year in this bowl. The Cougars won last year, 34-28, covering the number on a late field goal. At 10-3 SU and 8-4 ATS, the Cougars are looking to culminate its best season since winning 11 games in 1979. Houston is averaging 43.9 points per game and a nation’s-best 581.1 yards per game on offense. Air Force was 7-5 and 6-4-1 ATS with just a 1-5 record vs. bowl teams. The Falcons rushed for 273.6 YPG this season, fourth nationally, and will look to take advantage of a Cougars defense that allowed 5.0 yards per rush.

Why watch and wager- Houston’s a good play if one believes they can dictate tempo. The Cougars will want to play fast with Case Keenum hitting receivers all over the field, which presumably leads to touchdowns. Houston has covered their last five games off a loss and the defense will have to be disciplined (unlikely) to stop Air Force attack. The Cougs are only 1-8 ATS in road games after outgaining opponent by 125 or more total yards in their previous game. Air Force is a good play if you believe they impose their will on Houston. The Falcons like the other military schools play hard for 60 minutes, which is not always the case for Houston. If Air Force establishes running game, the undisciplined Houston defense can be gashed over and over and if they can keep continual pressure on Keenum to frustrate the Cougars, those points look inviting, considering they are 19-9 ATS after rushing for 200 or more yards.

3DW Line – Houston by 1

Sun Bowl
Stanford vs. Oklahoma (-10, 55)
Sun Bowl Stadium – El Paso
2:00E CBS

El Paso natives are looking for a better showing than the 3-0 snore-fest a year ago. This bowl has typically been an exciting one, dominated by underdogs, 11-1-1 ATS prior to last year. The Pac-10 has won five straight games (3-2 ATS). All of this could bode well for Stanford, which comes in as a heavy underdog to Sooners without starting quarterback Andrew Luck. The Cardinal were 8-4 (7-5 ATS) this season to earn their first bowl bid since 2001. Oklahoma was 7-5 (4-7-1 ATS) and mostly inconsistent team. The Sooners have lost five of their last six bowl games both SU and ATS, with the one win coming in non-BCS ’05 Holiday Bowl.

Why watch and wager- This matchup could be called the “Backup Bowl” as neither will have their original signal caller, which will dramatically impact the outcome. Tavita Pritchard is in charge of completing passes for Stanford so running back Toby Gerhart doesn’t have face what would look like two dozen red helmets in the box. Under coach Jim Harbaugh the Cardinal is 7-0 ATS vs. teams outscoring opponents by 10 or more points per game over the last two seasons. Though the Sooners defense wasn’t as strong as expected, they had their moments especially against teams that like to run the ball. In November encounters, they stuffed both Texas A&M (59 yards) and Oklahoma State (62 yards) and are wholly capable of doing the same against Stanford, without the threat of the pass. Boomer Sooner’s bowl record under Bob Stoops has been lousy of late, however Oklahoma is 11-4 ATS after allowing 175 or less yards in previous game.

3DW Line –Oklahoma by 7

Texas Bowl
Missouri vs. Navy (+6.5, 52)
Reliant Stadium – Houston
3:30E ESPN

Navy (9-4, 5-6-1 ATS) has always been a very competitive team in bowl games (7-3 ATS), but comes into this year’s Texas Bowl looking to snap a three-game postseason losing streak. The Midshipmen have proven a predictable team when it comes to bowl games lately, going 4-1 ATS and 5-0 Over the total. Missouri provides the opposition, which rallied to an 8-4 (4-7 ATS) finish by winning four of its final five games, topping the 400-yard mark each time. The Tigers are a heavy favorite, which could prove important since the chalk is 7-1 SU and 6-1-1 ATS in the history of this game, including a 3-0-1 ATS record with lines of 6.5 points or more.

Why watch and wager- Missouri quarterback Blaine Gabbert should be able to pick out receiver Danario Alexander among others, since Navy generates little pass rush and is in the bottom 20 percent in forcing negative plays. If Gabbert finds open receivers, that makes RB Derrick Washington that much more dangerous opening up all kinds of possibilities for squad that is 13-3 as a 3.5 to 10-point favorite. Navy covers the number by establishing fullback Vince Murray. If the Middies puncture the center of Tigers defense, that opens up quarterback Ricky Dobbs on the edges. Dobbs is the best passer Navy has had in decades, and immensely effective in play-action off the fullback dive for long gains. The Midshipmen are remarkable 71-44 ATS as underdogs the last 17 seasons.

3DW Line –Missouri by 3

Insight Bowl
Minnesota vs. Iowa State +2.5, 48.5)
Sun Devil Stadium – Tempe
6:00E NFL Network

Minnesota (5-6-1 ATS) is one of a handful of teams playing in the same bowl game that it did a year ago. The Golden Gophers have become quite familiar with the Phoenix area, making third trip to Tempe in last four years. Unfortunately, they lost two previous contests. This will be the first time Minnesota is favored, despite 6-6 record in the regular season. Iowa State (7-4 ATS) shares that same record and is in a bowl for the first time since 2005. The Cyclones are looking to extend a three-game winning streak by the Big 12 in this bowl, one that has been high scoring and 13-3-1 Over since 1992. The underdog is 8-4 ATS the last dozen years.

Why watch and wager- The records of these two schools suggest just another meaningless bowl game, but that’s hardly what the coaches are thinking. Iowa State has posted win totals of 4, 3 and 2 the last few years, for a total of nine, thus a seven win season with a bowl win for first year coach Paul Rhoads would be an amazing accomplishment. Throw out a 16-13 victory over South Dakota State on Nov.14 and Minnesota is 0-9 (4-5 ATS) playing big boy football once the calendar flips to November the last three years. QB Adam Weber has to keep his wits about him for Minnesota. Yes, he taken a pounding and was gun-shy the last few games and if doesn’t correct this feeling, Golden Gophers drop to 0-5 ATS as bowl favorites. The Cyclones are not going to generate a lot of points, which means the defense has to step up and put the Gophers in a hole. Though mostly against the Hawkeyes, Iowa State is 10-2 ATS vs. the Big Ten.

3DW Line –Minnesota by 1

Chick-Fil-A Bowl
Virginia Tech vs. Tennessee (+5.5, 49.5)
Georgia Dome – Atlanta
7:30E ESPN

The Volunteers and Hokies will send off 2009 in the last college football game of the calendar year. Virginia Tech (7-5 ATS) is favored after finishing 9-3, winning its last four games both SU and ATS, conceding just 8.8 PPG. The Hokies haven’t been the best bowl team of late, going just 3-5 SU and ATS since 2001. Tennessee (7-5 SU & ATS) shares that same bowl record in its eight games and has gone Under the total in five straight bowl battles, including twice in the old Peach Bowl. The Vols are looking to extend a streak of four straight upset wins by SEC teams in this bowl series.

Why watch and wager – For each of these teams, the goal is the same it’s just the method in which they get there is the difference. New coach Lane Kiffin was able to harness Jonathan Crompton from a mistake-prone quarterback into one that make better decisions and cut down interceptions. This was helped by Montario Hardesty who used his senior season to blossom and Crompton had deception on his side with a running game. In spite of alarming defensive injuries, the Vols held together under DC Monte Kiffin and are is 20-8 ATS away from Knoxville playing a team with 75 percent or better win percentage. This is important game for the stature of the ACC and Virginia Tech. The conference has started 1-3 SU as a bowler and Virginia Tech is in search of fifth straight 10-win season. Did you know Virginia Tech’s Ryan Williams actually gained more yards rushing and had more touchdowns the Heisman winner Mark Ingram? Neither did anyone else and if he can break the century mark against the Vols, the Hokies should be good. The biggest concern Frank Beamer is lack if pass rush, exposing mediocre secondary. The Hokies are 32-14 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.

3DW Line –Virginia Tech by 6

The last big college football weekend, sadly

Finally get to have this started again. We will start the day with college football system this 88.9 percent in the Apple Cup contest. The Border War yields a Top Trend that is 100 percent perfect. The Free Play has been delivered. Good Luck

What I learned this yesterday – It was a Black Friday for college football bettors that prefer favorites, as they went 3-9-1 against the spread.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Football System-1) PLAY ON home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points like Washington, who are average offensive team (4.8 to 5.6 yards per play) against a team with a terrible defense (6.2 or more YPP), in conference games. Since 1992, this system is better than a leftover turkey sandwich at 24-3 ATS, 88.9 percent.

Free Football Trend-2) The Missouri Tigers are 9-0 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points over the last three seasons.

Free Football Pick -3) Sal’s top play is SMU for today.

Nebraska and Missouri hunker down

This increasingly bitter rivalry has been played every since 1922. Missouri has outscored Nebraska 92-23 the last two years and is going for its first three game sweep in 40 years. Coach Bo Pelini claims to not care about last season’s 52-17 Missouri victory as they prepare for the road trip to Columbia.

“It really doesn’t matter what happened last year,” said the second-year Nebraska coach. “It’s a different point in time, different scenario, different players. Not really an issue with me.

“We got out-executed last year. We just got beat. What happened last year isn’t going to have any correlation on what happens this year, unless we let it.”

Nebraska (3-1, 4-0 ATS) showed no ill-effects from last minute loss to Virginia Tech 16-15 and laid out Louisiana-Lafayette 55-0 as 30-point favorites in last contest. This will be the Big 12 opener for both teams and coach Pelini knows what to do.

“Now, the season starts. Right now,” Pelini said. “That’s the way we look at it. It’s time to put the foot on the gas pedal and go, because we have a long season ahead of us and a lot of challenges coming up.”

Quarterback Zac Lee has only had one poor performance and that came against the relentless defensive pressure of Virginia Tech, which Missouri doesn’t seem capable of producing. The Cornhuskers are 3-8 ATS as Big 12 road favorites.

Missouri (4-0, 2-1 ATS) stayed unbeaten, winning and covering their first true road of the season at Nevada 31-21. The Tigers have to be ready to play, but can’t go emotionally overboard, playing at Oklahoma State next, followed by the Sooners arriving in Columbia. Sophomore quarterback Blaine Gabbert threw for 414 yards and three touchdowns on 25-of-40 passing in Reno. Gabbert has some of the best targets to throw to in the Big 12 like Danario Alexander and had five pass plays of 30 or more yards in last outing.

Missouri still has things to work on, since the running game stalled against Nevada (78 yards) and they allowed over 200 yards on the ground. Missouri is 17-5 ATS in home games after gaining 100 or less rushing yards last game.

This will be the Tigers second underdog role of the season, with Bookmaker.com having them catching 3.5-points with total of 51.

“We’re going in as underdogs this year,” Missouri tailback Derrick Washington said. “A lot of people didn’t think we’d be 4-0 coming into this game. Everybody’s doubting us.”

The Tigers have won 23 of last 27 contests (15-11-1 ATS) at Memorial Stadium and will need Gabbert to have big game and play mistake free for nation’s No. 10 pass offense at 310 yards per game. Coach Gary Pinkel’s team isn’t anything special defensively; however they have been much improved over a year ago and are 8-2 ATS at Faurot Field against opponent with revenge.

Coach Pelini’s influence is being found with the Huskers first in scoring defense (7 PPG) in the country and 21st in total defense. Be sure to watch nose tackle Ndamukong Suh, he’s a beast in the middle. Nebraska will try to run the ball with talented junior Roy Helu, which should open up passing lanes for Lee. Numbers don’t favor the “Children of the Corn” (Rece Davis speak), who are 12-30 ATS in road games off a home win by 17 points or more and 1-14 SU (4-10-1 ATS) as visitors against ranked opponent.

It’s a special start time for Thursday college football on ESPN at 9 Eastern and the home team is 6-1 ATS since 2002.

Nevada needs Kaepernick and defense to play big

Nevada finally opens its home schedule, but the assignment will be anything but easy. The Wolf Pack brought back 14 starters and a number of key reserves that were supposedly ready to move into starting slots. Junior quarterback Colin Kaepernick was ready for breakout junior season after promising first two years in Reno.

Offensive-minded Nevada hung a zero on the scoreboard in South Bend and much of the reasoning given was Notre Dame’s attacking blitz-scheme coming to fruition with bigger and faster players. That theory has been discarded with the Fighting Irish allowing 68 points in next two games.

Nevada’s pass defense was the worst in the FBS last season and there wasn’t much reason to believe they were going to be a whole lot better in 2009, unless the front seven could rush the passer better and stop the run with greater aplomb. After being gashed for 178.5 yards on the ground and surrendering seven touchdown passes thru the air, it doesn’t look like defense will be a strong suit for Nevada.

Coach Chris Ault prides himself as offense coach and his offense has been offensive in committing eight turnovers and scoring only 20 points this season. Kaepernick hasn’t shown the same accuracy as before and been somewhat less inclined to take off and scamper. Maybe putting on the blue uniform will help the Wolf Pack (0-2, SU & ATS) who are 7-3 ATS at home in non-conference play.

After pounding a little Paladin 52-12, (Furman’s nickname) Missouri (3-0, 1-1 ATS) gets back to the business of playing real football teams, traveling to Nevada. Coach Gary Pinkel knows the offensive problems that arose against Bowling Green have to be avoided because the Wolf Pack are dangerous at home.

Quarterback Blaine Gabbert has quickly grown into the Tigers offense, being on the mark to receivers Jared Perry and Danario Alexander. He’s benefitted from excellent protection from his offensive line and an adequate running game churning out 4.2 yards per carry.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Missouri as seven-point road favorites, with a rising total of 60.5. The Tigers are 6-2 SU & ATS in true road games and are 8-0 ATS as favorites of 3.5 to 10 points over the last three seasons. One would expect the talented Kaepernick to raise his level of play and want to make good on national TV after Notre Dame debacle. Playing before a friendly home crowd, Nevada is 19-8 ATS under coach Ault and 10-2 ATS at home when the total is between 56.5 and 63.

Nevada’s biggest issue is going to be stopping Tigers attack and they are only 1-9 ATS when they allow 28 or more points over the last two seasons. At the very least, the Wolf Pack ought to peeved after being shellacked 69-17 in Columbia last year.

ESPN has this Big-12/WAC clash starting at 9 Eastern.

Five Extra-Large College Football Previews

Thursday was a nice appetizer; however what college football and sports bettors are looking for is day long action. Depending on your proximity it’s time to get those last wagers in and settle in for great day. Will Notre Dame finally look like a program on the rise? Can Oklahoma State knock off opponent with real pedigree? Is this the year Illinois wins the Arch Rivalry? Is Oklahoma worthy of lofty ranking with rebuilt offense? Will Virginia Tech prove the ACC is on the rise vs. Alabama? All or part of these questions will start to be answered on Saturday.

Georgia (+5, 61) at Oklahoma State 3:30E ABC-GP

The Georgia Bulldogs seemingly are returning to what they do best under coach Mark Richt. In his eight seasons in Athens, Richt is 82-22 (51-47-1 ATS) and his best teams were usually those with less gaudy expectations. Matthew Stafford raised the SEC title beliefs and when they weren’t delivered, enough Bulldogs backers wondered why. This year it is back to basics, with workman-like Joe Cox under center. Cox and the rest of the seniors were put thru the paces by Richt in the spring, expecting them to lead by example. Last year’s offensive line failures are expected to be replaced by hungry individuals returning from injury or those seeking playing time. Sophomore A.J. Green is first team All-SEC pass catcher and will ease Cox’s transition. Defensively, Georgia has the athletes on the line to quell running game and linebacker Rennie Curran is on many All-American lists. The Bulldogs are 8-0 and 5-2-1 ATS in first away game of the year.

Oklahoma State comes off their most successful season since 2003 at 9-4. Former Cowboys gunslinger and head coach Mike Gundy (27-23, 23-21-2 ATS) has the program headed in the right direction with three consecutive winning seasons and three bowl bids. The next order of business is climbing into top three in Big 12 South. For Gundy’s squad to take this step, he must have defensive improvement. Since the 2002 season, Oklahoma State has not ranked higher than 74th in total defense. Cornerback Perrish Cox and linebacker Andre Sexton will try to lead the improvement, but it will be the D-Line that will determine fate. On offense, it’s hard to find a better trio than quarterback Zac Robinson, running back Kendall Hunter and receiver Dez Bryant. This deadly trio helped lead an offense that scored 40.8 points per game last season. Though that imposing number might be difficult to reach again, the Cowboys will score a ten-gallon hatful of points. Sportsbook.com has Okie State as five-point favorites with total of 61 and Gundy’s crew is 7-1-1 ATS as home favorites Boone Pickens Stadium.

This is return match from two years ago, when Georgia won at home 35-14. Okie State has won 13 straight home openers (5-3 ATS); however this is different type of opponent. The Cowboys are 4-18 and 6-14-2 ATS against ranked teams.

Nevada (+15, 62) at Notre Dame 3:30E NBC

Charley Weis has had a tumultuous time at Notre Dame and if things haven’t been challenging enough, this billboard popped up in South Bend this week.

-Best wishes to Charlie Weis in the fifth year of his college coaching internship. –

The billboard was paid for by a former Irish football player from the late 1960’s, which was taken down later this week. That sentiment is held by more than one alumni and this the season Weis has to prove he should be the coach in South Bend beyond this season. The offense should have no problems scoring points with triggerman Jimmy Clausen and arguably the best receiver group in the country. The defense will have much to say what direction the Fighting Irish move, being talented and athletic (a rarity), but inexperienced. Notre Dame is 7-13 ATS as home favorites in the Weis regime.

Nevada will receive rare national exposure traveling to South Bend on the first Saturday in September. The country will learn about the Pistol offense, run expertly by QB Colin Kaepernick. The 6’6 junior has a good arm and loping stride that chews up yards in the open field. His backfield partner is RB Vai Taua, who is coming off 1,521-yards season. On defense, the Wolf Pack are relentless pass rushers and will test Clausen’s composure. If they don’t rattle the junior QB, it could get ugly, as Nevada was 119th among 119 FBS schools in past defense last year and has to face this Irish contingent. Coach Chris Ault’s club is 2-7 ATS the last five years against ranked teams.

Notre Dame opened as 8-10-point favorites depending on where you looked and were quickly lifted to current status. The Wolf Pack is 16-25 ATS as dogs of 10 or more points.

Notre Dame can’t overlook Nevada who can score. This is important year for coach Weis or its back to the NFL. Notre Dame just 3-13 ATS against non-BCS schools at home.

Missouri (+6.5, 61) vs Illinois 3:40E ESPN

A new era dawns of Missouri football, starting without Chase Daniel. He wasn’t the only one to depart as high draft picks Jeremy Maclin and Chase Coffman will being playing on Sunday’s instead. This could mean head man Gary Pinkel (59-41, 50-43-2 ATS) relies on the running game more, at least to start the season. Blaine Gabbert is the starter at quarterback and he will he handing off tailback Derrick Washington, until he feels more comfortable in the pocket. The Tigers lost top receivers, but Jared Perry and Danario Alexander are both seniors and they have contributed plenty and have deep speed. The defensive line’s two deep lacks experience and Jaron Baston is only returning starter. All-Big 12 linebacker Sam Weatherspoon is a stud and will have to be leader. Only one starter is back in defensive backfield, which might not be a big deal after finishing 117th in pass defense. The Tigers have shown some teeth with 8-3 ATS record in first game away from Columbia.

When Ron Zook was hired at Illinois, his recruiting skills were not questioned, his coaching ability was. Many thought Zook had turned a corner after taking Illinois to Rose Bowl two years ago; however last year’s 5-7 campaign opened up Pandora ’s Box again for Zook. That makes this a critical season for Zook, not from a job standpoint, rather if he can take the Illini program to similar status of Wisconsin year-in year-out in the Big Ten. Having Juice Williams should help, if he cuts down interceptions and every down running back emerges to make Williams run less. Arreloius Benn should have true bust-out year and Michael Hoomananwanui needs to have 40+ receptions at tight end. Talented individuals are on defense, with the question being can they be molded in a cohesive unit. The Fighting Illini haven’t shown much fight with 3-9 ATS record the last three years as single digit favorites.

Hard to call Game 1 is critical; nonetheless it could set the tone for both schools. Missouri has won four in a row in the Arch Rivalry and is 8-1 ATS in last nine. Illinois has rugged opening slate and Missouri wants to get program situated early.

BYU (+21.5, 66) vs Oklahoma 7:00E ESPN

BYU is coming off 10-3 endeavor and has its sights set on even greater glory in 2009. The Cougars over the years have not been afraid to take on some of the best programs in the country and they will get a look at one of the finest in Oklahoma. Coach Bronco Mendenhall (38-13, 25-22-1 ATS) has signal caller Max Hall back for senior season. Hall will have new receivers to chuck the pigskin to, making tight end Dennis Pitta especially important as bailout pass catcher. The offensive line needs four new starters, yet the Cougars usually find a way to put together a group of road-graters that can pass protect. The Cougars never mounted a pass rush in 2008 and nothing seems to have changed that much. The corners look weak, which is not what you need against a Heisman Trophy quarterback like Sam Bradford to start you new season. BYU is abominable 4-17 ATS in first game away from home.

Bradford stood behind arguably the best offensive in the college game last year and will have four different helmets to look at this fall. The junior has a quick trigger and Ryan Broyles and Jermaine Gresham will be favorite targets in no-huddle attack. Running backs DeMarco Murray and Chris Brown will find lanes to scoot thru. While the offense doesn’t figure to be as prolific scoring 51.1 points per game, the nine returning starters on defense will play more of a role. Though it sounds ridiculous, the Sooners have six players in defensive line with pro potential, led by Gerald McCoy. Ryan Reynolds and Travis Lewis anchor a swift linebacker core. Oklahoma may disappoint in the biggest games, but don’t think for moment Bob Stoops isn’t elite coach. Boomer Sooner is 8-2 and 7-2-1 ATS in first matchup away from Norman.

After bumbling a bit, the Sooners are 11-1 and 10-1 ATS in non-conference regular season contests the last three years. With BYU having to replace four O-linemen against Sooners defense, the Cougs could be tough spot, already 0-5 ATS versus neutral site ranked teams.

Alabama (-6, 38) vs Virginia Tech 8:00E ABC

Alabama played in SEC title game and made BCS bowl game, are greater things on the horizon for Nick Saban’s (19-8, 12-13-1 ATS) third year in Tuscaloosa? It depends and the answer won’t really be known until later in the season. Where the tricky part is the offense, junior Greg McElroy has waited his turn and is now the big man on campus for the Crimson Tide. McElroy has professed to be ready and sophomore sensation Julio Jones will be one of his favorite targets to pass to. The offensive line has to be reworked with three outstanding starters gone and running back Glen Coffee leaving early. On defense, zero question marks with nine starters back and improving depth in support. All-American nose tackle Terrance “Mount” Cody is poised for colossal campaign and is leaner and reportedly meaner than ever. Rolando McClain is a headache at linebacker and the secondary has aggressive ball-hawks. The Tide have won last five of six as favorites.

Does it seem possible that Virginia Tech was ever bad under coach Frank Beamer? You have to go back to 1992 to find the last losing season in Blacksburg. The Hokies have won 10 or more games eight times in the last decade including five in a row (38-24-1 ATS). With 14 starters back in the fold, this opening game could determine if Virginia Tech is national contender or one of the best in the ACC. Junior Tyrod Taylor in the undisputed leader of the offense. He’s worked diligently to become better passer and expects to see the results. With Darren Evans out with ACL tear an unproven yet versatile running core will have to step up, running behind an offensive that came into its own late last season. Jason Worilds might be just 6’2 240 pound defensive end; however he’s upfield before the tackle is even out of his stance pressuring the quarterback, leading another stern Hokies defense. The Hokies are 12-4 ATS in first roadie of the season.

Oddsmakers have made their case about this matchup. Bama opened as a six-point choice despite a new quarterback and just four returning offensive starters. That speaks volumes about what they think about the difference between SEC and ACC. This is a special opening matchup and Virginia Tech is 17-6 ATS in September road encounters. The Tide is 16-1 SU in opening tilts since 1992, but just 5-10 ATS during that time.

Connecticut on Familiar Path in West Regional

Almost two weeks ago when the tournament committee announced Connecticut was headed out West, Huskies fans immediately wondered if fate was setting up for another successful run to the NCAA championship game. After closing the season with two losses to Pittsburgh in the regular season finale and memorable six overtime game with Syracuse in the Big East tournament, a small cloud of doubt was growing larger about Connecticut. Now after three extremely impressive NCAA tournaments wins, talent and fate may be aligned for UConn.

In the 72-60 win over Purdue, Connecticut (30-4, 16-14 ATS) showed its versatility, even when everyone was not having their best game. Forward Jeff Adrien never came close to being a factor; however Stanley Robinson posted a double-double and helped limit the Boilermakers Robbie Hummel with his length.

A.J. Price started slowing for the Huskies, even as they built a significant early lead. Purdue made several runs, but each time senior Craig Austrie made several important baskets, ending up leading his team in scoring with 17 points. Lastly, the nation’s biggest difference-maker, Hasheem Thabeet, added 15 points, snared 15 boards and bothered Purdue countless times and UConn went to 7-1 ATS in road games after playing three consecutive games as favorite this season.

Missouri (31-6, 20-10 ATS) has lived up to what the state is known for (Show me state), showing locals and the country the Tigers were much better than advertised. Coach Mike Anderson’s club was picked around seventh in the Big 12 and instead has rolled off a school record 31 victories and reached the Elite Eight for the fourth time in the past 60 years. In upsetting Memphis, the Tigers “out-Memphised” their Tiger counterparts, making steals, running with abandon and taking the mental aspect to them. Just when you thought John Calipari would have Memphis drooling with anxiety to overcome 13-point halftime deficit, Missouri took it 24 points in the second half.

Missouri defensive pressure allows them to rattle good ball-handling teams and they are 16-4 ATS versus clubs committing 14 or less turnovers game this season. An overlooked aspect to the Tigers game is offensive execution. They average 81.6 points per game and led the nation with 18.5 assists per game during the regular season on the way to shooting 47.4 percent, just like Connecticut.

Bookmaker.com and other wagering outlets have the Huskies as six-point favorites, with a total of 150. Connecticut has been protecting the ball and is 6-0 ATS after committing 14 or fewer turnovers in three consecutive games; however is just 7-21 ATS away from home after a trio of wins by 10 points or more. Missouri is up to 8-2 ATS in neutral court situations and 8-1 against the number if playing with one or less days rest.

Missouri will have to continue to push the ball and marginalize Thabeet’s presence. The Tigers will want to make Connecticut dribblers to break their press and will have to shore up defense in dribble penetration in the halfcourt as they become more fatigued, with Marquette and Memphis having late game success.

Connecticut has to control the glass and make Missouri be one-and-done on offense. Defensively, play assignments and let Thabeet clean up mistakes. The Tigers are superb at driving and kicking out passes for open shots and running off curl screens.

In this round top seeds 19-13 SU, though 12-18 ATS.

Underdogs Bring Right Stuff for West Regional

Connecticut and Memphis were devastating in three of the four of their games in the opening two rounds. The Huskies toyed with Chattanooga and Texas A&M, which led many to wonder how good would UConn be right today if Jerome Dyson was available. Memphis lolly-gagged with CS-Northridge in the opener, but came with a purpose and mauled Maryland 89-70 in a game that wasn’t that close. If these two top seeds are really on a collision course, they will have to match wits with teams that have many of the right aspects to take down the higher seeds.

Connecticut (29-4, 15-14 ATS) was believed to be the second best team in the country back in early November and they have done very little to change that opinion. Jim Calhoun’s bunch isn’t always the best team to wager on, however have a steady 8-2 ATS away from home record off two games as a favorite. In their losses to Georgetown, Pittsburgh (2) and Syracuse, the theme is consistent. You have to attack Hasheem Thabeet, trying to get him in foul trouble, score in the paint and make outside shots.

This isn’t designing a new way to play basketball, however it is how you beat the Huskies. Center JaJaun Johnson of Purdue (27-9, 16-17 ATS) has the size to go at Thabeet and runs the floor as well as any big man in college basketball. Johnson has been a threat in running the secondary break, scoring on a number of thunderous dunks. He’ll try to make the Connecticut center pick up quick fouls, which opens up the lane. The Boilermakers fought injuries most of the year, but the return of Robbie Hummel placed everyone back in normal spots. Hummel can shoot deep or drive to the cup, creating more options for guards E'Twaun Moore and Chris Kramer.

Connecticut has very few fouls called on them and Purdue has not been bothered by teams like this in the past with 26-14 ATS record versus clubs who are called for 17 or less fouls a game. The Boilers are receiving 6.5-points as underdogs, with a total of 134.5. The Huskies are 3-13 ATS in road games after two straight blowout wins by 20 points or more, while Matt Painter’s troops are 17-5 ATS after being an underdog.

In the round of 16, favorites of six points or more are 28-2 SU covering 60 percent of the time.
A question was raised by Digger Phelps the night the brackets were announced and he made mention of Missouri (30-6, 19-10 ATS) being a threat to Memphis (33-3, 22-12-1 ATS), since pressing teams don’t like to face pressing teams. The first thought was wouldn’t the same be true of Missouri taking on the Memphis press?

In this battle of Tigers, Missouri has to overcome the moment. This is Memphis’ fourth straight Sweet 16, which includes three Elite 8’s and a national championship appearance. Missouri’s task is to keep poise and not be fearful of 8-0 run, since they are equally as capable of returning the favor. Misso’s job on defense is to limit Tyreke Evans dribble penetration on offense. The Northridge zone stifled him, look for change-up defenses from coach Mike Anderson. Missouri has won and covered five in a row and showed gumption in holding on to defeat Marquette.

On offense, DeMarre Carroll and Leo Lyons might have more opportunities than they thought after watching film. The two Memphis tourney opponents shot 44.4 and 43.5 percent; hardly intimidating figures and both opponents took it right to the rim when they had numbers, which is Missouri’s style.

Memphis coach John Calipari likes to sell himself off as the Al Bundy of college basketball, falling into situations as much as making them happen. To his credit, he spreads the praise around and seniors Antonio Anderson and Robert Dozier have 13 NCAA tournament wins in their four years. What this Tigers team has shown is the ability to do is go for the throat. If they are mentally ready, Memphis will start fast and once they see the opening to finish, they close better than a top-notch Lexus salesperson.

The Tigers from Tennessee are 4.5-point favorites according to Bookmaker.com and teams favored by less than six points in the Sweet 16 only cover about a third of the time.

Bettors Should Expect the Unexpected Sunday

Typically Sunday is the day where more upsets occur in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. In this round, the lower seeds have managed to win about 43 percent (36-48) straight up and covered the spread a money making 53 percent of the time. This can lead to all kinds of madness and the potential for lower seeds to win outright or at the very least cover oddsmakers spreads exist. Here are the possibilities for upsets today.

(6)Arizona State vs (-3) Syracuse 12:10E

Do you think N.C. State has more respect for former coach Herb Sendek now? Arizona State is one of five teams that advanced to second round out of the Pac-10 and Sendek has turned around a dormant Sun Devils program that would frequently have less than a hundred students at games. Even more amazing, is the fact ASU made it to this matchup with Syracuse, when you realize Pac-10 player of the year James Harden has nine points on 1 for 8 shooting versus Temple. Point guard Derek Glasser filled in the scoring void with career-high 22 points and lifted Arizona State to 19-11 ATS on the year.

Syracuse is bad matchup for many teams, since they have scoring options all over the floor. Jonny Flynn has been the best point guard in the country the last 10 days and Eric Devendorf and Andy Rautins are trigger-happy assassins who kill opposing teams with there shooting ability. Arinze Onuaku and Paul Harris do a nice job on the inside and the defensive intensity has picked up with Orangemen on 8-1 SU and ATS roll. Syracuse is a two-point pick and it would hardly be an upset if the Sun Devils shine and come out on top.

(11) Dayton vs (3) Kansas 2:30E

What might have been the quietest upset of the first round was Dayton controlling West Virginia from the opening minutes as 9.5-point underdogs. The Flyers had been written off since losing point guard Rob Lowery and were only 3-4 in last seven contests. However, Dayton is a quality defensive team in holding foes to 39.6 percent shooting and Chris Wright dunked the Mountaineers into the off-season with 24 points. This was Dayton’s first tournament win in 19 years and they are 8-3 ATS against teams with winning records.

Kansas stood up against a game North Dakota State squad and keeps alive the dream of defending national championship. The Jayhawks will want to step up tempo and force Dayton to play at their pace and are 16-4 ATS versus good ball handling teams committing 14 or less turnovers a game this season. Kansas is a 7.5-point favorite and is one of a trio of three-seeds playing today and this group is 10-2 and 8-4 ATS this round since 2006.

(13) Cleveland State vs (12) Arizona 2:40E

Almost every year is one crazy matchup nobody saw coming and this is the one. Arizona’s Big 3 played up to and beyond expectations, scoring 66 of the Wildcats 84 points. Arizona was among the last teams invited to the dance and played like they should have been invited unquestionably. The ‘Cats are 11-2 ATS playing against teams with 60-80 win percentage this season, but won’t be able to play the underdog card again in Miami.

Cleveland State played like they should have been the fourth seed in whipping Wake Forest 84-69. The Vikings have won 13 of 15 (9-5-1 ATS) and are playing with supreme confidence. Cleveland State is making first tournament appearance in 23 years and this squad is noted for defense. The Vikings are 10-2 ATS when playing with one or less days rest this season and like Arizona did Friday, can play loose with nothing to lose as three-point dogs.

(8) Oklahoma State vs (1) Pittsburgh 2:50E

Pittsburgh was the least impressive of the number one seeds in the opening round and will have to step up defensive passion against a team that can shoot the orange. Oklahoma State has little size, but is big on heart, with excellent shooting range. Okie State shot 56.6 percent against Tennessee, making seven 3’s and attacked the rim like bunch of cowboys at a $9.99 all-you-can-eat steak joint after working cattle all day. These Cowboys are similar to their coach Travis Ford, who is a fiery sort and won’t back off a challenge. Oklahoma State is 9-2 and 10-1 ATS since Valentine’s Day.

Pittsburgh needed 38 minutes to finally distance themselves from East Tennessee State and looked like they deserve the tag of NCAA tournament underachiever. The sloppy Panthers will have to bring their hearts and get into the game from the start or the Cowboys could shoot Pitt right out of the tournament. Pittsburgh is a noteworthy 10-2 ATS versus teams who make eight or more three-point shots a game and are favored by eight.

(6) Marquette vs (3) Missouri 4:50E

Marquette lived to tell about Utah State’s comeback and moved to next round with 58-57 squeaker. The Golden Eagles shot ugly 36.2 percent, however converted 19 of 23 attempts from the charity stripe to preserve victory. Jerel McNeal and Wesley Matthews can not go a combined 6 for 26 if Marquette has visions of trip to Glendale, AZ.

Missouri is a four-point favorite in this contest of Midwestern universities and will try to make pressing defense take its toll on thin Marquette squad. The Tigers will wear out teams, even teams who protect the ball like the Golden Eagles; with 14-4 ATS record vs. clubs committing 14 or fewer turnovers a game this year. Marquette can create the upset, if they shoot the ball better and Missouri goes into one of their shootings funks which has happened this season.

(10) USC vs (2) Michigan State 5:00E

This is the classic 10 vs 2 second round matchup and USC has the momentum and talent to advance. The Trojans buried Boston College, doubling them up 42-21 in the second half. Taj Gibson led the onslaught, with 24 points and 10-for-10 shooting from the field. USC has now won and covered six straight, shooting over 50 percent and playing normal Tim Floyd defense. Don’t expect the Trojans to be worn out either, since two games in three days is the norm in the Pac-10 and they are 24-11 ATS in this set up.

Michigan State is four-point favorite and is 7-1 ATS away from East Lansing versus teams shooting 45 percent or better, with defense holding opponents to 42 percent or less. Don’t sell USC short, since they are 26-12 ATS as an underdog. No. 10 seeds are 9-5 ATS in second round since 2000.

(9) Siena vs (1) Louisville 5:20E

Louisville went through the motions in the first half against Morehead State before asserting themselves in the final 20 minutes to put them away. A similar pattern of play might prove fatal for the tournament’s top-rated team. Siena’s fast paced style of play was reduced to a crawl by Ohio State. The Saints needed 50 minutes to finally overcome the Buckeyes 74-72, despite making only 33.3 percent of their shots. How they managed to hang in was controlling the glass with overwhelming 17 rebound edge (51-34). Bookmaker.com has Siena receiving 11.5-points, with total of 141 and they might need it all and more. All five starters played a minimum of 44 minutes in Friday’s contest and facing the Louisville pressure has proven to be physically and mentally fatiguing for opposing teams. Siena is 10-3 ATS as an underdog of 7.0 to 12.5 points, while Louisville is 10-2 ATS after a game shooting 57 percent or higher and allowing 43 percent shooting or less.

(12) Wisconsin vs (4) Xavier 2:20E

If you prefer grind it out possession after possession basketball, you should be in luck with Xavier taking on Wisconsin. Actually the Musketeers can get up and down the court, averaging 72.5 points game, on 46.5 percent shooting. Xavier has a superb deep game, tossing in 40 percent from beyond the arc and they are 6-0 ATS against Big Ten teams.

Wisconsin can play 94-feet also; they just walk it, as opposed to running back and forth. The Badgers are capable of the upset if they continue to heave them in from long distance. They made nine three-pointers after the intermission to surprise Florida State. This is the Badgers 11th appearance in the second round and they are 15-2 ATS in road games off an upset win as an underdog. Oddsmakers are giving Wisky four points with a total of 122.5.

High Maintenance Friday Favorites

For Day Two of the first round, thought we would break the bracket down into two segments. The first portion is taking a look at the five major favorites and see how they might perform, having the burden of giving away so many points to teams that may or may not be able to use them for the purpose of those who might back them.

Louisville is the top ranked and top seeded team in tournament and has all the components to be a champion. The Cardinals press can stick to opponents like barbecue sauce on baby back ribs, creating numerous turnovers and easy baskets. Coach Rick Pitino has been preaching incessantly about playing as a team, saying the NBA can wait and the players finally listened. The Cardinals come in 8-1 ATS in road games after five or more consecutive wins and are 21-point favorites according to Bookmaker.com.

Morehead State with their opening game win over Alabama State, earned a four day stay in beautiful Dayton, Ohio. The Eagles have four starters that average double digits and are 13-5 ATS after one or more wins this season. One major conundrum for Morehead State, they committed 77 more turnover than assists coming into the tournament. Ouch. If they can keep their wits about them, the Eagles could cover, with Louisville 0-7 ATS after three straight wins by 10 points or more.

Also in the Midwest region is No.2 Michigan State, who is favored by 16.5 points. The Spartans ability to make a run depends on Raymar Morgan to play at expected level and point guard Kalin Lucas to be efficient, not mercurial. Michigan State laid an egg in Big Ten tourney and is 9-0 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more. Robert Morris has Northeast Conference player of the year Jeremy Chappell, on a team that shoots 47.6 percent. Robert Morris, the person, signed the Declaration of Independence "Financier of the Revolution", because of his role in financing the American side in the Revolutionary War. Even he might have had to back Michigan State.

Pittsburgh is the top seed in the East and collectively could do a commercial for the American Beef Council. DeJuan Blair and Tyrell Biggs are wide bodies with tremendous skills and Sam Young is a triple threat on the wing. Levance Fields is underappreciated point guard with 4-to-1 assist to turnover ratio. The Panthers flamed out quickly in Big East Tournament, but should be ready and rested. They are 15-6 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread. East Tennessee State loves to get up and down the floor, scoring 78.6 points per game and is fabulous 14-1 ATS in March games since 1997. Only chance for the Bucs to cover the 19.5 points is run and make shots.

On the subject of running, Missouri likes to get of the starting blocks playing 94-feet with DeMarre Carroll and Leo Lyons leading a frenetic pace for the Tigers. Missouri is back in tournament for the first time in six seasons and will want to make a splash with its three senior starters. Misso is a 13-point favorite and has deep, productive bench, which should wear down Ivy champ Cornell. The Big Red doesn’t have great athletes; however is rare tall team from that conference, with frontline of 7’0, 6’7, and 6’6. Cornell shots the deep ball well at 41.5 percent and is 11-0 ATS after scoring 60 points or less in last contest. Missouri is 8-2 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points this season.

If Syracuse would have lost in first or second game of Big East tournament, would they even have been a fourth or fifth seed? Being listed among the top nine teams in the country seems a bit of a stretch, even if they won and covered seven of last eight. Jonny Flynn has proved he is one of the most dynamic point guards in the country and the Orangemen can tickle the twine with its array of shooters. Stephen F. Austin has a point guard that 5’3, yup it’s true. Eric Bell does a fine job distributing the ball and the Lumberjacks are an excellent defensive team, ranking third in the country in field goal percentage allowed at 37.4. Syracuse is favored by a dozen and is 9-4-1 ATS as neutral site game favorite. Stephen F. Austin can cover if they keep the games in the 60’s.

Sunday info at your service

All my whining about Free plays not winning can stop as this was our only winner yesterday. Just can’t seem to get over the hump. Slick Rick has another Free Play, this time in the SEC. The Detroit Pistons are in a perfect negative Trend and today’s best System takes a gander at the big one in the Big 12. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Missouri, off a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference rival against opponent after a road game where both teams scored 75 points or more. This system is 25-6 ATS, 80.6 percent since 1997 and is making first appearance this season.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Detroit Pistons are 0-11 ATS on Sunday games this season.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Slick Rick of the LCC gave us our only winner yesterday so let’s hope he’s right with Florida.

ESPN's Rivalry Week Starts with Bettors Paradise

The worldwide leader in sports is big on marketing themes and starts with a doozy pair of college hoops games Monday night. The first game of Rivalry Week is the Backyard Brawl, between West Virginia and Pittsburgh, followed immediately by the Border War in the Midwest, which has Kansas and Missouri doing battle. No matter the stakes or reputations, the intensity is always electric and they will be heightened with national cable television appearances and frenzied crowds. College basketball bettors can test their skills and watch the outcome of two heated confrontations.

West Virginia at Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh (21-2, 11-6 ATS) easily handled West Virginia 79-67 as a “pick” in part one of this year’s Backyard Brawl and they are solid eight-point favorites at Bookmaker.com to finish the Mountaineers off again at home. The key was their ability to work the offense inside-out, using the frontcourt, with Sam Young scoring inside and making outside shots to keep West Virginia off balance. The Panthers big men stayed at home in the paint, instead of wandering outside, and it paid off. DeJuan Blair has been a beast of late, scoring 24.3 points and ripping down 14.7 rebounds in last three contests. This is Panthers basketball and it is this type action that has them playing so well, with 8-1 ATS record in home games after two straight games giving up nine or less offensive rebounds.

With the arrival of February, one thing is apparent; West Virginia (16-7, 9-11 ATS) is part of a group of Big East teams that is good, but not elite. They can pull upsets when they outwork opponents, however when the game is tight or they trail, the ‘Teers don’t have answers.

“As of right now we are ninth in our league and that’s not good enough,” Mountaineers coach Bob Huggins told the school’s official athletic Web site. “We have got to win some games here and make a move here in the second half of the conference schedule.”

This West Virginia club isn’t built to play in high scoring affairs as 2-8 ATS mark versus offensive teams scoring 77 or more points a game this season shows. "We're just not scoring the ball," said guard Alex Ruoff, trying to explain where the deficiencies are. "We don't have that guy to take over the game the way Joe [Alexander] did last year."

The Mountaineers have to take the momentum of wasting Providence 86-59 and use it to their advantage like in the past; with an 11-2 ATS record off a home blowout win by 20 points or more over the last three seasons. Nevertheless, West Virginia is 1-7 and 3-4-1 ATS at Pittsburgh since 1997.

Kansas at Missouri

When it comes to rivalries, this Big 12 battle does not receive nearly enough publicity. The fans of Kansas and Missouri truly do hate each other and the players brought in from other areas of the country quickly learn what the “Border War” means. Despite losing all five starters from its national championship team, Kansas coach Bill Self has nicely cultivated a fresh crop of ambitious youngsters.

The Jayhawks (19-4, 12-6 ATS) are playing with the same steely determination and JC transfer Mario Little has gotten healthy, adding depth to Kansas. As expected, the Jayhawks are playing remarkable defense, holding opponents to 38.2 percent shooting and are 4-1 ATS against teams averaging 84 or more points a game.

The Jayhawks are off to their best start in the Big 12 in four years (8-0 and 7-1 ATS) and are playing game four of five, out of seven on the road. Kansas is 15-6 ATS after seven or more consecutive wins and 6-0 ATS versus teams outscoring opponents by four or points per game after 15 had been played on the season.

Missouri (20-4, 10-7 ATS) is improving under coach Mike Anderson and they have reestablished home court advantage at Mizzou Arena, where they are 14-0 and 5-2 ATS scoring over 90 points per game. Defensive pressure is a constant in Anderson’s system and he wants to keep adding pieces to the Tigers assortment of different techniques for turning up pressure. Opposing teams convert less than 38 percent of attempts in Columbia and Missouri is 15-5 ATS in home games vs. top caliber foes outscoring their opponents by 12 or points a contest, past the mid-point of the season.

The Tigers were a popular play against team Saturday at Iowa State, but showed newfound mental toughness in 82-68 win as nine-point chalk, behind DeMarre Carroll career-high 31 points. Missouri reached the 20-win mark for the first time in six years.

Coach Anderson knows Kansas is a smart team that can find open shots even against the Tigers press. Mizzou will have to get the ball out of Sherrod Collins hands and force others to make plays. Missouri is a 4.5-point favorite and is 7-3-1 ATS at home against KU.

Northwestern Double Digit Dogs to end Bowl Drought

Northwestern has something to prove coming into tonight’s Alamo Bowl game, after enjoying their best campaign since 1996, when they were 9-2 and played in Citrus Bowl. The Wildcats have lost five bowl games in a row, all as underdogs (1-4 ATS) and basically none of them have been close. Northwestern has been out-scored 47 to 28 in those five appearances and could start to take some of Notre Dame’s thunder for bowl futility with another embarrassing defeat in San Antonio.

“I think, if anything, (the bowl drought) will provide a little extra motivation,” senior quarterback C.J. Bacher said. “At the beginning of the year we set out to win a bowl game and we’ve put ourselves in a position to do that.”

Northwestern’s 9-3 record ended up quite a feat, though expectations were higher this season with a solid number of quality returning players. “To be at nine wins right now with an opportunity for number ten, the opportunity to achieve our main goal this year—to win a bowl game—is all right here in front of us,” said coach Pat Fitzgerald, the second-youngest head coach in the nation at 33, in his third season after taking over following the unexpected death of Randy Walker in June 2006. Fitzgerald was part of the 1995 Rose Bowl team, the last Northwestern squad to win 10 games.

Most previous Wildcats teams that have made it to bowl games lacked defense, this group is quite a bit more solid in allowing 19.3 points per game. This Northwestern club has a more aggressive approach on defense with 33 sacks on the season. Despite the lack of success in bowls by the ‘Cats, Big 10 bowlers are 21-11-1 ATS if their opponent is off a loss.

Bookmaker.com has Missouri as a 12.5-point favorite, with a total of 66, despite losing last two games. Offensively, the Tigers are exceptional at 43.2 points per game with quarterback Chase Daniel heaving the pigskin to the likes of receiver Jeremy Maclin and tight end Chase Coffman.
What ended up hurting Missouri as much as anything was the offense was always under pressure to score, since the defense was rather pathetic, allowing 27.5 points per game. In particular, the pass defense was atrocious, ranking 117th in the country, which accounted for the Tigers 9-4 season.

Coach Gary Pinkel was asked if this ended up being a disappointing year. “Well, I don’t think that,” he said. “Do I wish the regular season would have ended up that we were 11-1 instead of 9-3? Yeah, we should have done that. But I think we had a good year.” Missouri is was bombed by Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game 62-21 and is 19-7 ATS after allowing 42 points or more last game.

Senior quarterback Daniel has the right perspective, “We can finish off in style. When was the last time a Missouri team won 10 games back-to-back in history? Never. We still have a chance to make history.” It should be noted Misso is 15-4 ATS after trailing by 17 or more points at the half in last contest.

The Alamo Bowl has been a graveyard for Big 12 teams with 4-10 ATS record, including 3-10 against the spread if they favored against Big 10 teams in any recent bowl matchup.

Northwestern will try to emulate what others have done to Daniel, pressure him into mistakes. If the Missouri QB has time, it will be another long bowl date for the Wildcats. If they can make Daniel uncomfortable, they have the offense to play keep away and move the chains against a porous Tigers D. Coach Fitzgerald can also bring up about his team being dissed, since their position in the conference should have meant an Outback Bowl bid, but those representatives went for attendance and took Iowa because it travels better, despite Northwestern beating them on the road.

Missouri put last year’s Big 12 title loss behind them in 38-7 romp of Arkansas in the Cotton Bowl. Two significant differences were the game was played on New Year’s Day and they were playing a SEC team. This game is just another among the batch and purple and white doesn’t raise the hair on the back of the neck. Nevertheless, the Tigers have covered three straight bowl games.

Kick-off is at 8:00 Eastern on ESPN.