Sound Reasoning to Watch and Wager on the Pro Bowl

For most people, the title of this article I was asked to write makes no sense. And while I can appreciate the logic of those of you who think flipping a coin to guess “heads or tails” would be an equally worthy pursuit, cut me a little slack and at least play along. I hear all the complaints; it’s just an exhibition game! Whine, whine whine and I suppose you are going to sit there and act so high and mighty that you wouldn’t lower yourself to watching and betting on such contest, yet you are same person salivating in August for professional football and are willing to bet on a game involving two fourth string quarterbacks and bunch of other players that won’t even be on those teams’ rosters, but you are OK with that because it’s a preseason (exhibition) game?

Here are reasons to Bet and Watch the Pro Bowl.

1) How many reruns can you watch of Criminal Minds or NCIS in a weekend?

This will be the 40th version of the Pro Bowl, and interestingly, the NFL chose to mark the occasion with some experimentation. The changing of the date was done to promote the Super Bowl week, as opposed to the Pro Bowl being an afterthought it has been in the past.

The Super Bowl players always hated to go to the game unless the wife, girlfriend or whomever wanted a vacation and some of the cool swag that comes with the trip. For many of the players they get a little extra cha-ching for playing and typically turn it over to their other half, to make them look like good guys. The Miami setting is still cool and the night life is even better. ESPN is going to handle this like a live NFL Films production, so the entertainment value at least has potential.

2) It’s betting on football and you can watch

The vast majority of football bettors, hell bettors in general like to watch what they bet on for some reason, like their anguished faces or smirking know it smiles will in some way determine the outcome. Think of it as an awards show, just without all the stars being able to attend. The NFC is favored by 2.5-points and for you those of you addicted to line movement, the total opened at 60.5 and has tumbled like President Obama’s approval rating to 57 points.

3) Check out players in laid back setting and see how those from your favorite team perform.

I’ve read more than one report that a lot of the Pro Bowl players aren’t very cool with moving the game up two weeks. Most of these young studs want to come to South Beach to hang out and party, not practice and play a meaningless game. One thing about these guys once they strap on the pads and start hitting each other, the competitive part of their personality surfaces and they want to win for each other, just because. Besides, since many guys will be around Miami all next week some extra good-natured barbs can be launched at one another based on the outcome or if something funny happened during the game. That is unless Gilbert Arenas shows up. During the game the players will be more relaxed and might offer something humorous.

4) Public service material about the Pro Bowl

My friend Steve Makinen from StatFox assembled a vast amount of Pro Bowl data for those that just want the information and even offers a prediction. (Clearly Steve has even less a life than yours truly)

Digging into the game a little bit, with the Saints' Drew Brees and Vikings' Brett Favre unavailable to play, the NFC offense will be guided by quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers of the Packers, Donovan McNabb (3553 passing yards, 22 TD, 10 INT) of the Eagles, and Tony Romo (4483 passing yards, 26 TD, 9 INT) of the Cowboys. Even with the two NFC title game combatants backing out, this is still a star-studded trio. Rodgers, who threw for 4,434 yards and 30 touchdowns against just seven interceptions while leading Green Bay to a playoff berth, will be making his first appearance in the game. The receiving corps will include the Eagles' DeSean Jackson (63 receptions, 9 TD) and Cowboys' Miles Austin (81 receptions, 11 TD), both of whom are expected to start, with the 49ers' Vernon Davis (78 receptions, 13 TD) getting the start at the tight end spot. The Vikings' Adrian Peterson (1383 rushing yards, 18 TD) is expected to open in the backfield one week after his fumble-laden performance in the NFC Championship. The offensive line will be led by Minnesota guard Steve Hutchinson, who makes his seventh consecutive Pro Bowl appearance.

The game will feature a “no-blitz” rule as always, meaning pressure on the passer will have to come from the down linemen. In this case, for the AFC, with would-be starting ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis of the Colts both unavailable due to their Super Bowl commitment, Mario Williams (38 tackles, 9 sacks) of the Texans and Kyle Vanden Bosch (44 tackles, 3 sacks) of the Titans will get the first crack at Rodgers and the NFC quarterbacks. Broncos outside linebacker Elvis Dumervil (41 tackles, 17 sacks), who led the NFL in sacks in 2009, will also be involved. On the back end, a star-studded secondary paced by perhaps the league's top three cornerbacks - the Jets' Darrelle Revis (49 tackles, 6 INT), Raiders' Nnamdi Asomugha (29 tackles, 1 INT) and Broncos' Champ Bailey (61 tackles, 3 INT) - along with starting strong safety Brian Dawkins (95 tackles, 2 INT) of Denver, will focus on slowing the NFC receivers.

Like the NFC, the AFC team will not be without its top QB’s, in this case, three of them. With Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers, and Tom Brady all unavailable on Sunday, the AFC will go with NFL passing yards leader Matt Schaub (4770 passing yards, 29 TD, 15 INT) of the Texans, with the Titans' Vince Young (1879 passing yards, 10 TD, 7 INT) and Jaguars' David Garrard (3597 passing yards, 15 TD, 10 INT) both backing him. Young will be appearing in his second Pro Bowl game, after making it as a rookie in 2006. Houston's Andre Johnson (101 receptions, 9 TD) and Denver's Brandon Marshall (101 rushing yards, 10 TD) will open at wideout for the AFC, with the Chargers' Antonio Gates (79 receptions, 8 TD) starting at tight end. Among the notable reserve pass-catchers is the Bengals' Chad Ochocinco (72 receptions, 9 TD), who makes his sixth Pro Bowl appearance. A standout AFC backfield will include NFL Offensive Player of the Year Chris Johnson (2006 rushing yards, 50 receptions, 16 TD) of the Titans, along with the diminutive Maurice-Jones Drew (1391 rushing yards, 53 receptions, 16 TD) of the Jaguars and Ray Rice (1339 rushing yards, 78 receptions, 8 TD) of the Ravens. Jets guard Alan Faneca and Titans center Kevin Mawae, who now have 17 Pro Bowl appearances between them, anchor the line.

The NFC will look to pressure the AFC quarterbacks with Vikings end Jared Allen (43 tackles, 14.5 sacks), Panthers end Julius Peppers (36 tackles, 10.5 sacks) and Cowboys outside linebacker DeMarcus Ware (47 tackles, 11 sacks). Their defensive backfield features Asante Samuel (43 tackles, 9 INT) of the Eagles and Terence Newman (61 tackles 3 INT) of the Cowboys, in addition to safety Nick Collins (47 tackles, 6 INT) of the Packers. The linebackers are headed by 49ers middle man Patrick Willis (113 tackles, 3 INT), among others.

Prediction: On paper, you certainly have to like the QB rotation of the NFC much better than that of the AFC, with Rodgers, Romo, and McNabb all capable of lighting up the scoreboard. That said, the AFC defensive backfield is one of hall-of-fame credentials and certainly won’t make things easy. With the total set at 57 for this contest, we’ll go with a rare prediction of an UNDER in the game, with the NFC pulling it out 24-20.

5) Pro Bowl info and betting stuff

The NFC leads the all-time Pro Bowl series by a 20-19 margin, including wins and covers in the last two games. In fact, the NFC has covered the spread the last four matchups and is 7-5 ATS the last dozen years, with the teams splitting the end results. Looking back to 1997, dogs are 6-6 ATS with the Over 8-4. (Just the fact that I took the time to look that up makes me just as bad as Steve)

One needless bit of information has been stripped away with this year’s new date; whatever conference won the Super Bowl was 15-11 SU dating back to 1983.

If your life is boring and mundane to all your friends, reinforce their beliefs and watch the Pro Bowl. Better yet invite people you will be seeing next week for a Super Bowl party and tell them you are having a Pro Bowl shin-dig, they will think you are really nuts.

This article penned by Red Wydley.

Packers at Cardinals Wagering Outlook

The Packers had not faced Arizona at any time in over three seasons, now they will be making a third trip to the desert in just over four months and a second in two weeks. Green Bay assaulted Arizona 33-7 in Week 17, as both teams came into that game with very different mindsets.

The Cardinals played with little ambition and the game plan had about as much flavor as diet dressing. Coach Ken Whisenhunt was down this road a season ago and feels he has the right pulse on his more veteran team and decided to take his lumps and live to fight a bigger battle in the week ahead.

Coach Mike McCarthy has a younger team, playing its best football of the season and chose a more aggressive stance, having his club play with more vibe. Green Bay took what Arizona was willing to give and built up 33-0 lead before calling off the dogs.

In the last wild card game of the weekend, we’ll see what approach was correct.

This will be the only matchup of the wild card team having the better record and the Packers are torrid, having won seven of eight (7-0-1 ATS). Green Bay’s running game offers more than enough to keep any defense honest and the blocking downfield has been spectacular, with Ryan Grant ripping off long touchdown runs despite slightly above average speed. The Pack is 20-7-1 ATS on the road the last several seasons.

Aaron Rodgers is seeing the field well, finding second and third receivers without holding onto the ball, which was his penchant earlier. Finding the long ball with home run hitter Greg Jennings opened up the field and TE Jermichael Finley is proving to be a tough matchup for every opponent.

In the second half of the year, DC Dom Capers 3-4 defense gelled. The players started to play instinctively instead of reacting and the blitzing of linebackers Nick Barnett and Clay Matthews really paid dividends. Charles Woodson proved to be the best all-around cornerback in football and will receive plenty of support for Defensive Player of the Year, for a team that is 8-0 ATS as a visitor when their defense forces two turnovers since 2007.

For Arizona it starts with attitude, can they once again just “turn the switch” and play great football. Over the last two years in the most meaningful games they have been able do so. On defense, they will have to super aggressive, forcing Rodgers to get rid of the ball quicker than he wants and play more press coverage in the secondary, since all four starters have good hands and have played corner at some point in their careers. DT Darnell Dockett has to control the middle of the defense like he is capable of doing so, making Packers one dimensional. The Cards are 8-1 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging seven or more passing yards per attempt over the last two seasons.

On offense, Kurt Warner has to protect the ball and be accurate. Establish Larry Fitzgerald first in the passing game and find the mismatches against a thinned out Green Bay secondary like Pittsburgh did when they threw for over 500 yards. At some point in the first quarter, get the running game cranked up, to keep the linebackers honest and play their positions, instead of heading up field all the time. The Cards are 13-4 ATS against teams who force 2.5 or more turnovers a contest.

Arizona opened as 2.5-point home favorites at DiamondSportsbook.com and has been bet down to two-point underdogs, with total at 47.5. They are 18-6 ATS in home games off a home loss and 18-5 OVER after scoring 15 or less points. The Packers are playing with supreme confidence and are 12-3 ATS after allowing 14 points or less and 15-2 OVER with four or more consecutive wins against the spread.

Baltimore at Green Bay Monday night matchup

Green Bay and Baltimore share wildcard aspirations in their respective conferences. The teams will go head-to-head at Lambeau Field on Monday night to wrap up the Week 13 slate, each hoping it turns out to be lucky. The Packers are 7-4 and facing a two-game road trip following this one, placing a premium on gaining a victory here.

Green Bay (6-4-1 ATS) has come a long way since a loss to previously winless Tampa Bay in Week 8 dropped them to .500. Their convincing 34-12 victory at Detroit on Thanksgiving Day was their third in a row and improved their chances in a wild-card race sure to come down to the wire as usual. They will come into this contest 24-9 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season.

Quarterback Aaron Rodgers tied a career-high with three touchdown passes and comes into Monday night’s game at Lambeau Field against Baltimore in a serious groove with 881yards, six touchdowns and no interceptions since the defeat to the Buccaneers. It should also be noted he’s been doing a better job in getting rid of the ball instead of holding onto it and has been sacked only three times in the last two games working behind a much-maligned offensive line that gave up 41 sacks through nine contests. He’s thrown an interception in only three games all year, and his 22-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio and 104.9 rating are among the best in the NFL.

The re-signing of tackle Mark Tauscher has solidified the offensive line and the combination of understanding Dom Capers defense better and facing a series of weak offenses has led to Green Bay having No.1 total defense coming into Week 13 and they are 14-4 ATS at home after a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better. Cornerback Charles Woodson is seemingly only getting better instead of older and his team is 11-1 ATS at the frozen tundra vs. squads outscoring opponents by six or more points per game after eight contests have been played during the season.

For Baltimore (6-5 SU & ATS), this is their third prime-time game in four weeks. The last time they played on Monday their defense pitched a shutout at lowly Cleveland but the offense struggled to put points on the board. One of their two touchdowns in the 16-point victory was a pick six by Dawan Landry. Last Sunday night’s overtime win over Pittsburgh put them a game over .500, but they’ve produced just 58 points over the past month. The Ravens have been consistent money-makers with 21-10 ATS record in last 31 contests.

This week could ultimately determine if Baltimore returns to the playoffs following an appearance in the AFC Championship Game last season. After the Packers only one of its last four opponents has a winning record (Steelers) and the other three (Lions, Bears and Raiders) are floundering.

The Ravens need to get back to stretching defenses, and with pass-rushing linebacker Aaron Kampman and cornerback Al Harris missing from Green Bay’s lineup it’ll be up to offensive coordinator Cam Cameron to turn second-year quarterback Joe Flacco loose. Flacco completed only two touchdown passes in five November games and also had three sub-200-yard efforts. The Ravens own a 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS mark vs. non-conference foes under John Harbaugh and their next three games are against NFC North opponents.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Green Bay as 3.5-point favorites, with total of 42.5, but they are just 2-5 SU (4-3 ATS) on Monday night under Mike McCarthy. The Packers will have had what accounts for almost a bye week before this one, with it being 11 days since dumping Detroit on Turkey Day and teams like the Pack are 18-7-1 OVER in next outing if they beat a division team on a Thursday. Baltimore is 7-3 ATS in last 10 road underdog assignments and 10-2 OVER as a visitor catching seven points or less.

Baltimore covers if they run the ball and control the clock. Their running attack is 14th in the league and they will take on the Packers defense which is fourth against the run. That means finding which of their three backs is the most effective vs. the Pack and go at them. Ravens’ coaches have to expect Green Bay will send pressure, as the offensive line did a poor job last week against Pittsburgh. They will have to clean this up to give Flacco time to work the ball downfield. Baltimore has to bring heavy pressure on Rodgers and force him to make quick decisions or have him revert to holding the ball, keeping the Ravens in positive down and distance situations that help pull the upset.

Green Bay covers if they stone the Birds running game and Woodson eliminates Derrick Mason. That leaves Flacco with few options and makes blitz packages more effective. Teams that have beaten Baltimore have chosen one method to start the game, either heavy run or heavy pass. Whichever way McCarthy chooses, stick with it to test for success and eventually take deep shots against ordinary secondary. If Baltimore decides to bring defensive pressure, utilize two tight end sets giving Rodgers a down the field threat for having to make quick throw.

Monday Night System – Play Against any road underdog that has failed to cover last two games. (21-10 ATS)

Steve Makinen of The Platinum Sheet and College and Pro Football Weekly contributed to this article.

All Favre all the Time

In case you haven’t heard, President Obama has made this Monday national “Brett Favre Day”, as a way to celebrate the future Hall of Famer and everyone can quit their jobs, only to return the next day since they had a change of heart and time to think about. Make no mistake; while Green Bay and Minnesota is a heated rivalry known primarily in the Upper Midwest, it takes on a national meaning this Monday Night.

Like the graphic ESPN showed Saturday night, can you imagine Derek Jeter in Boston uniform, Larry Bird playing for the Lakers or for longtime college football fans, what about Woody Hayes wearing a blue and maize tie with a Michigan hat. Some things in life aren’t supposed to be yet, Joe Montana wore a Kansas City uniform and Emmett Smith played in Arizona before calling it quits.

The game everyone has been waiting for has taken on added significance because of its importance in the NFC North race. The Packers (2-1 SU &ATS) and Vikings (2-1 ATS) will be playing for more than just Brett Favre, when they get together on Monday. The Vikings are 3-0, thanks in large part to Favre’s last second heroics last week against San Francisco. They have won five straight games as divisional hosts but are 2-3 ATS in that span. Minnesota trails in the all time series 49-45-1, having lost five of last six, but is 19-8 ATS in home games after a win by six or less points.

Since the day Aaron Rodgers fell on draft day to the Green Bay Packers, his professional career has had a peculiar path, through no fault of his own. The next chapter is written tonight and he would love nothing better than to be the star that leads the Packers to victory in this arresting contest. Unfortunately, Rodgers has had to have more moves that a salsa dancer, since the best blocking scheme the Green Bay offensive line has come up with is the “look out” block, with Rodgers sacked 12 times already. The Packers are 17-7 ATS on the road under Mike McCarthy and 14-5 ATS in divisional games.

The wagering public has been hitting Minnesota hard, moving them from three-point favorites to 4.5 at DiamondSportsbook.com, with total at 45.5. Minnesota is just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games at the MetroDome. This head-to-head series has seen some significant trends, particularly the games in Minnesota, where dogs are on a 13-3 ATS run, and the OVER is 6-1.

Green Bay covers if their run defense holds up. The Packers are allowing a respectable 3.9 yards per carry; however teams have shown no fear in taking them on, averaging 33 attempts. This means keeping Adrian Peterson in check, no easy task. The offensive line has to perform. For all the talk over the last few years about the Vikings run defense, Mike McCarthy’s schemes have worked pretty well. Keep Rodgers from getting rug burns and attack Minnesota secondary with three and four receiver sets. The Vikes are notorious for weak special teams, win the “under the radar” stat decidedly to put offense in better scoring positions.

Minnesota covers if they do what everyone else has done to Packers O-line, abuse them. Jered Allen probably hasn’t slept all week thinking about how many times he could sack Rodgers. Green Bay’s run game isn’t strong enough to offset their lack of ability to move the chains without the pass. One word said three times- Attack, Attack, Attack. The Vikings have gained 407 yards rushing in last two games against the Pack, why shouldn’t they do it again, especially if Favre can put them in right play against run blitzes. Feed Peterson like a hungry tiger. The pass rush isn’t going to get Rodgers every time, the secondary has to make sure they stick with Packers’ receivers, as Rodgers is well-respected for ability to throw deep accurately.

This will be a spectacle.

Monday Night System – Play On a division favorite of a touchdown or less that has won two straight games. (26-9 ATS)

Steve Makinen of The Platinum Sheet contributed to this article.

Arizona favored to play there best football

The Arizona Cardinals are the defending NFC champions and are winless in the preseason, no big deal right? None of the top three quarterbacks have generated an offensive touchdown, no big deal right? Kurt Warner had off-season hip surgery and hasn’t looked like the quarterback that took his team to Super Bowl last season, no big deal right? This needs to be the week the Cardinals put it all together, to erase any doubts about them, especially playing at home. Also, we’ll preview the Patriots at the Redskins.

Green Bay at Arizona

The Cardinals are 3.5-point favorites at DiamondSportsbook.com and want this to start building confidence for the upcoming season. Arizona ALMOST won the Super Bowl, yet the fact remains they were 9-7 in the regular season in 2008 and were not considered elite team when the playoffs began. In this contest, Warner and the first team offense want to put up points and will face Green Bay’s new 3-4 defensive scheme, which features a great deal of blitzing. The could mean check downs to Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald, along with some long passes facing one on one coverage.

The Packers have rebuilt their offensive line and though talk out of Green Bay is coach Mike McCarthy is satisfied with progress, the Cards generated four sacks last week. Aaron Rodgers and the first team offense have been crisp. Last week the Pack built 24-0 halftime lead over Buffalo before cruising to 31-21 triumph. However, this is first road game which will alter dynamics. Arizona has thrived in this situation with 6-0 ATS record in Week 3 and is 9-0 against the number if off a SU loss and opponent is off double digit win.

Tim Hightower has been outstanding for Arizona, nevertheless, they didn’t pay top draft pick Beanie Wells to sit on the sidelines and be injured. Watch the total in this contest, which presently is 41 points. The Redbirds are 10-2 OVER after scoring seven points or less in the first half in two straight games and Green Bay is 8-1 OVER when playing with six or less days rest.

New England at Washington

Washington entertained the idea of chasing Jay Cutler who wanted out of Denver and gave serious consideration to drafting Mark Sanchez. Neither of those things happened and Redskins fans are starting to wonder if the Washington front office made an error in not following thru. Jason Campbell was believed to a work in progress when he was drafted and it well documented his head has been filled with new offensive schemes annually, dating back to Auburn days. Campbell is no longer a kid quarterback (27 years old) and he is 5 for 20 passing in the preseason, for a whopping 58 yards. This has to be the time he elevates his game. The Redskins are 3.5-point home underdogs, with total of 37.5 and they are 2-12 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points.

If one reads into comments made by coaches, New England could be edged this week. Coach Bill Belichick was unusually critical of his team’s 7-6 loss at home to Cincinnati as a touchdown favorite. Belichick said “We just generally had too many mistakes, too many errors in every phase of the game with every unit pretty much in every area.” It has been a different atmosphere in Patriots training camp, more hitting, longer practices and more double sessions. New England is 17-8 ATS in third game of the preseason, including 5-1 ATS since 2003. Tom Brady and his teammates might be in the mood to set an example in this contest.

Looking in Rearview Mirror in the NFL

For those that watched that the Dallas and Pittsburgh contest, with nearly the intensity as same Samuel Louis Charles of North Miami Beach, Fla., (he won a cool million on ESPN's Streak For The Cash game with Steelers triumph) you had to be struck by several key factors. This whole Dallas meltdown deal is taking on a life of its own. For those not familiar, the Cowboys are 18-37 in their last 55 December/January games, with an even worse 15-39-1 ATS record. For Dallas backers and I know there is a whole bunch of you, this makes them among the worst teams in all of football to end and begin different years.

Everybody thought the three wins after the bye had Dallas rolling. Against Pittsburgh, their defense was phenomenal, never letting Ben Roethlisberger breath and shutting down the Steelers passing game almost completely for 53 minutes. But for all the supposed All-Pro players on the Cowboys roster, in the clutch, they make the cowardly lion from the Wizard of Oz seem brave at the end of games. Though Wade Phillips team was the equal, if not the better team, once again, the Boys couldn’t put the cork in the bottle at crunch time and Tony Romo look like the undrafted free agent he is when the chips are all on the table.

Though I’m unbelievably impressed with the Steelers this season, since I didn’t see any way around their brutal schedule, I’m squeamish about Mike Tomlin in the big game. On the fourth and one play early in the fourth quarter when Pittsburgh was stopped on downs, why wouldn’t you kick the field goal to make it a one score game at 13-6. I’m sure his argument would be he has faith in his defense to get the ball right back, great point. But wouldn’t the same argument hold be true if you were down just one score instead of two? Sometimes his strength as a coach is also his weakness and he has done similar things with mixed results as head coach.

Dallas will host the New York Giants, who were finally bitten by the Plaxico Burress bug and played like a team that had been through emotional ringer, losing at home to Philadelphia 20-14 as a touchdown favorite. Like a Trojan computer virus, if contained immediately, the damage can be minimal, however once other players on the team started to come into question for the incident, this story grew and had a lingering affect. It was also noted Domenik Hixon didn’t look nearly as comfortable in role as key receiver as opposed to matching up against weaker DB’s as the third or fourth option. The Eagles Brian Dawkins offered this insight.

Listen," Dawkins said, "I understand that you want to say the correct thing like 'We'll plug in this guy and we'll move on.' And that's all well and good. But when you have the type of player that Plax is and the attention you have to pay to him ... and you have to pay attention to him. You can't allow a corner to play one-on-one with Plax the whole game.

The Giants can certainly overcome this with three weeks left in the season, but the invincible tag lost several layers over the weekend as a play on team.

The Green Bay Packers are done, finished and kaput. Oh sure, in the off-season Packer apologists will point to five losses by four points or less or whatever the final tally is. Yet the fact remains, similar to Dallas, when called upon at the end of the game, the Green and Gold are just green with envy suffering another defeat.

Consider the Green Bay defense allowed 549 yards of offense to Houston at Lambeau Field. The Texans are essentially a dome or warm weather team and they played on the road in temperatures that never saw double digits and moved the ball like a 7 on 7 practice in August. Their is no doubt the Packers defensive backfield has been hamstrung by injuries at the safety position, but do you really take a player like CB Charles Woodson, who was having a Pro Bowl season and move him to safety?

Aaron Rodgers has mostly stayed above the disappointing season, but he was an important reason why they lost to Houston. The Packers were miserable 1 for 10 on third down conversions in the game and on six occasions they ran their favorite slant route play and never converted one. Twice, the receivers ran sloppy routes and didn’t shield defensive players properly. However, on all six passes Rodgers threw, none of the passes were in the tight window necessary to force completions. Instead of the usual December rush were accustomed to seeing by the Pack, they look to be going thru the motions and have to be thought of as play against team on the road in Jacksonville and in Chicago the next two weeks.

In the National Football League, nothing is a given, with the possible exception of blocking in the back on kicks twice or more a game. With the disillusionment Dallas and Green Bay have created, the wonderment the Miami Dolphins has spawned is about as confounding as any story this season. Miami, of course won just one game last season, covering the spread only five times. With an overturned roster, new attitude, improved quarterback play and better game plans, the Dolphins are tied for first place in the AFC East with the Jets and New England. Miami has two winnable contests with San Francisco and Kansas City next, in which they will be favored in both before heading for New Jersey to face the Jets. Think Chad Pennington will have his team ready if they are still tied for first in this matchup?

Quick Hits –This past week, teams that had scored or allowed 40 or more points the previous week were 4-0 ATS. On the season, nothing remarkable, with teams having scored 40+ points 9-8 ATS and those allowing the same number 7-7 ATS. Early in the year, we heard quite a bit about clubs from Pacific Time zone teams traveling East and losing. This last Sunday, three teams traveling west, two or more time zones away failed to cover. Annually, their are not a large number of these games, but teams that force five or more turnovers are 6-3 ATS this season, after producing 11-28-1 spread record the two previous years. Pittsburgh is a live play this week. Several weeks ago it was noted how well teams in the bottom five of Yards Per Point were doing at 16-6 ATS, after being 60 percent spread losers the last several years. As the season as worn on, they are coming back to normal with 7-13-1 ATS record the last five weeks.

Looking Ahead in Rearview Mirror in the NFL

Go ahead, I dare you to guess what the Denver Broncos season ending record will be, let alone how they will perform over the next four weeks against the spread. The 2008 Broncos seem to be a mix of Britney, Lindsey, and Paris all wrapped into one. A closer look at the team is more confounding than Mike Shanahan having a darkly tanned face in December living in Rocky Mountain country.

Denver is in first place in the AFC West, which is akin to Arizona being in the top spot in the other West division. The list of division contenders is null and void. This would take more research time than presently available, but I’m quite comfortable in saying it’s been awhile since a division leader has failed to cover a spread AT HOME (0-6, same as Detroit) this late in the season. All the more incredible when you consider those six opponents are 33-38 on the season. Of equal or possibly greater lunacy, Denver has a seven game spread losing streak this season, this is not something normally associated with good teams headed for the playoffs, no matter the division. Quarterback Jay Cutler’s up and down efforts seem to match the Broncos play and so does the sometimes brilliant and indifferent gameplans Shanahan puts together. For wagering purposes, M.C. Hammer has the best advice, “Can’t touch this”.

The San Diego Chargers are more done than bacon left in the microwave too long. The reasons are varied, but here are the nuts and bolts (slight play on words). General Manager A.J. Smith wanted to be in charge. He’s done a good job in assembling a team presumably destined for the Super Bowl. Along the way, Smith also wanted to play coach and he and Marty Shottenheimer couldn’t work together, thus he made Norv Turner, the architect of the offense, his head coach. Problem is this team was built to play Marty-ball, tough, physical and aggressive. Turner who would best described as nice guy; he doesn’t fit the A-personality type that many teams need. The Chargers have turned into a soft, finesse-styled squad under Turner and it’s no coincidence it would appear this is why they can’t close out games. Hard decisions for GM Smith in the off-season, since L.T. seems to have reached his peak and this team needs a new direction.
Just asking, did you think the Detroit Lions thought maybe their Thanksgiving game was supposed to be two-hand touch instead of tackle football?

The Indianapolis Colts have won five in a row, by a grand total of 20 points, explaining why they have covered twice in that stretch. I thought playing against the Colts was the second best bet on the board this past week, since they don’t have the look of a team that can cover many numbers. Injuries are a big reason, missing center Jeff Saturday and safety Bob Sanders for too many games. I’d like to throw out the idea that all the fast, light (weight-wise) players Tony Dungy prefers, breakdown quicker being undersized, having given or taken too many hits. Call it an observation, not an indictment and worth consideration.

There is no doubt the best team in the NFL is the New York football Giants and I’m amazed at one subtle difference that has happened over the last few years. Coach Tom Coughlin, now in his fifth season, had a locker room filled with outspoken players and wild antics his first three years. Jeremy Shockey, Michael Strahan and Tiki Barber were all worth a few quotes each week and not always to the positive of the team. As the leaders, they didn’t like his rules and Coughlin always ended up defending many of his actions both on an off the field. Is it a coincidence, after Barber leaves, Strahan quiets down and Shockey gets injured and the Giants roll to Super Bowl win? Is it more striking that even with Plaxico Burress doing everything to be a distraction, a group of committed football players are more like their coach and are seemingly immune to distraction? Think about this, in a different style of play; are the Giants any less dominant than New England was a year ago? Since losing to Cleveland on Monday night, they are 7-0 SU and ATS. The G-Men are very much like the Patriots teams of 2003-06, they just win games and cover spreads, not getting pinned with unrealistic spreads from oddsmakers.

Aaron Rodgers has been a pretty solid first year quarterback, with “first year” being the operative two words. He’s become more inconsistent as the season progressed and has shown the lack of patience in crunch time, like throwing the off-balance 30-yard interception into triple coverage in Carolina loss.

Matt Cassel will still likely make a lot of money in the free agent market, but he should come with –buyer beware- tags as was shown in Pittsburgh losses. He’s made great strides since being thrown into the fire with Tom Brady’s injury; however the Steelers showed the world, Cassel still has work to do.

Should Mike Singletary be the next coach of San Francisco? He still has four games to go to prove himself, however no questioning the visible difference in how the 49ers are playing. Singletary knows what he wants and will not settle for less and that attitude is showing in how the Niners are playing, being 3-1 ATS.

Quick Hits – Teams that commit five or more turnovers are 7-2 ATS in next game this season. The four NFC South teams are matched against each other this week. Strongly contemplate the home teams, who are 21-2 and 16-6-1 ATS this season. How bad are home underdog bets? In the last six weeks they are 6-19-1 ATS with only TWO outright upsets.

Green Bay Has Covered on the Road

After upending Minnesota in Week 1, Green Bay will try for another win on Monday night at the expense of New Orleans, which dropped a heartbreaker to those same Vikings on a Monday night four weeks later. With the NFC North still wide open, the Packers (5-5, 6-3-1 ATS) have hurt their chances by losing three games by three points or fewer. A classic example is head coach Mike McCarthy’s team dropping a tough overtime contest to Tennessee one week and following that by losing to Minnesota by a point when kicker Mason Crosby missed a long field goal late at the Metrodome.

Despite the pressure of taking the reins from Brett Favre, Aaron Rodgers has settled in quite nicely with 2,351 yards, 15 touchdowns and six interceptions in his first season as a starter. Rodgers also has three rushing touchdowns and has thrown touchdown passes to seven different players, including five to receiver Greg Jennings.

Defensively, Green Bay lost a key cog in the linebacker corps when Nick Barnett went down with an ACL injury, leaving the middle linebacker spot to A.J. Hawk, who along with the secondary, have been stellar against the pass, ranking #3 in the NFL, allowing 176.5 yards a game, and shut down Chicago in last week’s 37-3 romp. Needless to say, the secondary will face a stern test from quarterback Drew Brees; however have a couple of angles in their favor. The Pack has covered seven straight in dome surroundings and is 15-5 ATS in road games over the last three seasons.

A 30-20 win over lowly Kansas City saved the season for the New Orleans (6-4 ATS), who improved to 5-5. Unfortunately, capturing the NFC South crown is a pipedream, but head coach Sean Payton’s team feels a red-hot Brees could propel them to a wild-card spot.

When he is not yelling at tight end Jeremy Shockey, Brees has been lighting it up with a league-leading 3,251 passing yards and 18 touchdowns and should easily surpass the 4,423 yards he threw for a year ago. Another reason Brees could accomplish that feat is the return of wideout Marques Colston, who showed encouraging signs by snagging seven balls for 140 yards in the loss to Atlanta in Week 10.

The possible return of Reggie Bush from knee surgery is an added boost to a New Orleans rushing attack that averages only 91 yards a game. Granted, the Saints have been trailing in most games and have resorted to passing more, but power runners like Deuce McAllister (299 yards) and Pierre Thomas (238) have struggled in Bush’s absence. At least this season, the Saints have been marching home to victory more often with 3-1 SU and ATS record.

Bookmaker.com has New Orleans as jovial one-point home favorite, finally playing at the Superdome for the first time since Oct.12. Considering both teams have the ability to score points and have suspect defenses with weak elements, the total of 51.5 seems like a natural to go over, especially with these teams a combined 22-6 OVER after one or more straight victories. Nonetheless, there is a Totals system to consider- Play Under on any team like the Saints where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5, after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, in weeks 10 through 13. The system is a slick 19-3 since 2004.

Green Bay covers if they protect Rodgers like they did last week against Chicago, not like they did versus Minnesota. If the offensive line blocks well enough for RB Ryan Grant to have success again, this opens up the passing game against Saints secondary that ranks 26th. The pass rush hasn't been as good as it was last season, but the front four has done a good job of deflecting passes at the line of scrimmage, which is important against Brees, who though talented, is mildly vertically challenged. Bat down a few passes to make New Orleans adjust pocket. The Green and Gold is 7-1 ATS in November.

New Orleans covers if they get pressure up the middle, since Rodgers has shown a tendency to hang onto the ball a little too long. The defensive backs have to tackle well and limit the number of gains over 10 yards. Get the running game going, testing what has been a vulnerable front seven for Green Bay. If Reggie Bush is truly ready, see how the Packers linebackers handle him is open areas.

This week’s Monday night system is to play against any road team that plays outdoors versus a home team in a dome. This system is 29-14 ATS, 67.4 percent.