What we learned from MLB Interleague Play

As per usual, the American League once again showed their superiority over their union partners from the National League in interleague play with a 134-118 edge. This marks the seventh straight time the junior circuit has been victorious, however for those thirsting for the 16-team league to finally win this event, this year was the closest the National League has been since this rein began in 2004. (AL won that year 126-125)

One of the humorous aspects each year is the managers that end up with a tougher draw, whine like Oksana Grigorieva (Mel Gibson’s soon to be ex) about what misfortune they have encountered.

Joe Torre was lightly complaining his team had to face the Angels six times, plus the Yankees, Red Sox and Detroit, which led to 4-11 record this year. Torre might have a slight argument, since his team faced better clubs than either San Francisco or San Diego, who are ahead of them in the standings. Nonetheless, the Dodgers always play terrible against AL, thus this isn’t news and besides, who had the Padres in first place on July 1 in the NL West this season unless they were taking on Triple-A teams.

Over the course of a 162-game slate, there is going to be ups and downs and if a team is in one situation or the other, that more than anything will affect how they play and more likely determine their outcome.

The biggest benefactor of the interleague play was the Chicago White Sox, who single-handily accounted for 75 percent of the difference in the two leagues with their 15-3 record. The White Sox did have any easier draw, having to play Florida, Pittsburgh, Washington and taking on their sinking cross-town rivals the Cubs, didn’t hurt either. However, manager Ozzie Guillen’s club also swept first place Atlanta on the south side during their 11-game win streak and is right back in contention in the AL Central race with Minnesota and Detroit.

Texas and Boston were two other teams that improved their status whipping their National League counterparts. The Rangers contingent of opponents might already be out of the pennant chase, yet you have to tip your cap for franchise best 8-1 road trip, that included stops in Milwaukee, Florida and Houston. Texas returned home and swept Pittsburgh, to make win streak 11 and they start series with Los Angeles on 16-2 roll, 4.5 games ahead of the Angels.

The Red Sox were 13-5 in their interleague adventure and faced three solid clubs from the NL West and went toe to toe six times with the two-time National League champion Phillies. Their success moved them up to second place in the AL East standings, surpassing Tampa Bay and closing in on the Yankees.

With the Dodgers swimming into the interleague black hole with teams like Washington (5-13 interleague play), Pittsburgh (2-13) and Houston (3-12), somebody from the NL had to emerge victorious.

The biggest winner was the New York Mets at 13-5. Their 6-0 record over Baltimore and Cleveland could hardly be described as taxing, yet for a team that is 9-20 on the road everywhere else, that six-pack of visiting triumphs sure came in handy. The Metropolitans again had to face the Yankees six times and manager Jerry Manuel didn’t whine once, keeping his lips closed tight also facing division contenders like the Tigers and Twins.

Of the National Leaguer’s that were 9-6, division leader San Diego was most impressive with 4-2 road mark.

One final note, it would be a complete oversight not to mention the Pirates. Pittsburgh now holds the record for baseball futility with 17 consecutive losing seasons since Barry Bonds left town in 1992 as a free agent for San Francisco. Barring an unprecedented comeback, No. 18 just needs 32 more losses in the final 86 games. Their aforementioned pitiful interleague record of 2-13, saw them outscored by 2.8 runs per game, quite an accomplishment.

Make Umpires part of MLB Wagering Portfolio

This baseball season, umpires have been in the news a bit more often than usual. Joe West called out the Yankees and Red Sox for slow play in April, as most of their games go right up against a 240 minute hour glass. And just last week Jim Joyce cost Detroit’s Armando Galarraga a place in baseball history by missing a call that would have given him the 21st perfect game ever.

But umpires have other uses besides being screamed at like “Hey ump you stink” or “Come on blue get in the game”. Sharp baseball bettors take the time to study or at the very least know whose working behind the dish to understand what kind of influence they may have on the outcome of a game.

This is especially true for baseball bettors who playing totals. Umpiring is more standardized today with the use of modern equipment to see how consistent an umpire is in calling balls and strikes, compared to the old days when the National League was known a “high ball” league and American League was known as a “low ball” league based on how they wore their chest protectors.

Those days are gone, however each umpire interprets the strike zone differently and it tends to be somewhat of a moving target.

This is where you find some are liberal with the zone and their games tend to be lower scoring, while others are smaller, either by width or height and the games they call behind the plate are often higher scoring with pitchers having to catch more of plate which gives batters a better choice of pitches to hit.

Here are the umpires that have called the highest percentage of Over contests this season.

Games OVER the total (Pushes not listed)

Angel Campos 9-2
Tim Welke 9-2
Angel Hernandez 9-3
Mike Reilly 8-3
Sam Holbrook 6-2

Next are the umps that have called the most Under the oddsmakers total.

Games UNDER the total (Pushes not listed)

Jim Wolf 10-1
Bob Davidson 10-2
Bruce Dreckman 9-2
Dan Iassogna 9-3

One aspect that has to be considered is who and the types of pitchers involved. If the men in shirtsleeves this time of year have No. 4 or 5 starters on consistent basis and they have tighter strike zone to begin with, needless to say the chances of a higher scoring game go up. Conversely, if an umpire draws the top pitchers from the various teams and normally gives the hurler the benefit of the doubt to begin with, than he’s more inclined to have games flying Under the number.

One further point of consideration is the record of an umpire in home or away situations. This generally is less important, nevertheless extreme cases should be part of the decision-making process.

These guys are human and are going to be influenced by their surroundings, a juiced up home crowd could sway decisions, just like what happens in basketball to officials. Other umps might be a touch “prickly”, and go out of their way to give the visitor the benefit of the doubt.

You can’t help but notice the home team is 12-0 with Ted Tichenor behind the plate in a home ball park in 2010. Others with figures supporting the club that bats last are Tim McClelland 11-2, Gerry Davis 10-3, Brian O’Nora 10-3, Greg Gibson 10-3 and Jerry Meals 10-3.

Those that have the opposite numbers with the visiting team coming out ahead are Ed Rapuano 9-2 (visitors record), Marvin Hudson 8-3, plus Bob Davidson and Laz Diaz at 9-4.

The idea isn’t to base a baseball wager on the outcome of what an umpire’s record is on totals or sides, but to understand they can and do influence the outcome of games. Mixed with other key information, they are part of the fabric of the game and baseball wagering.

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Base Hits can lead to Big Profits

While going thru Bill James 2010 “Gold Mine” book, came across statistical information that only baseball nuts would enjoy.

Part of James wisdom is taking something simple and applying it in common sense manner. For example if you score more runs than your opponent you will win 100 percent of the time. Pretty straight forward.

The article went on to talk above the value of base hits. No discussion of home runs, doubles, walks or even on-base percentage, just hitting the ball where the fielder cannot catch it.
Last season if you take away the all games that each team had the same number of hits in a ballgame; the final record was 1,766-433, a winning percentage of .803 for the club with more base hits in a single contest.

The light bulb switch went on in my dome and I started to wonder how this plays out for wagering purposes.

Pulled out all 30 teams’ home games (no reason to road contests since it’s the same) and looked to see what kind of profits are to be found in this fact-finding mission.

The most obvious aspect uncovered is there is a lot of money to be made by correctly determining the team that will have the higher amount of hits.

In the National League, teams with most base knocks are 105-34, 75.5 percent this season (thru 4-27). This generates a profit of +70.05 units. It goes without saying nobody is going to wager on every baseball game every day, still not many systems of any kind are going to yield these sorts of profits looking at each contest. How this ends up being such a money-maker is of the 105 wins, 37 were underdogs, help building the bankroll.

In the American League, the news is even better despite fewer games because of two less teams. Here we have an overall record of 89-25, 78.0 percent, yielding a handsome profit +70.25. Once again a healthy number of underdogs were part of the equation, as 36 of 89 winners were not favored. (Tampa Bay 12-1 when they outhit opposition)

In the interest of disclosure, this sample is just from April and no real way to know if these profits would hold up over a whole season, but based on “Gold Mine’s” findings, no reason to believe they shouldn’t.

Our next step is identifying how one could determine what teams will out-hit their opponents. Let’s start with taking swings at the dish.

Major League clubs that are near or above the median levels of batting average and have three or more games with nine or more hits have to be considered a play on team. When teams have this many base hits consistently, that probably means three players in the line-up are stroking it and as is the case of most hitting streaks, they can go along for about a week seeing the ball really well.

Conversely, when teams are totaling six or fewer hits for a few outings, this might be the time to play against them since they are likely swinging at pitcher’s pitches and being less selective, getting themselves out if you will.

Another factor is once a series of events has occurred, there is likely to be a reaction to them. Much of this is following detail. On April 17, the San Francisco Giants destroyed the Dodgers 9-0. Over the next seven games they total 11 runs and had a stretch of four games in the middle section where they had seven or fewer hits four times. In the last contest of the seven, they were shutout 2-0 by Brad Penny and the Cardinals, but showed signs of breaking out of slump with nine hits.

No question conventional wisdom would have suggested San Francisco would have a difficult time with Roy Halladay in town in next outing, however in the bigger picture, Jonathan Sanchez of the Giants had permitted 11 hits in 19.3 innings and Philadelphia had been outhit in all three games in Arizona. If you saw this entire view, the Giants at +135 home underdog becomes far more attractive and they won 5-1.

Another example of finding value with teams swinging the lumber was Baltimore on Tuesday night. The Orioles have the worst team in the Major’s and their most recent streak had reached five straight losses playing in Boston.

Baltimore started to show signs of coming out of this deep slumber with back to back nine hit games, though they only totaled four runs. After those two games they had 17 players hit their way on base, but lost 7-6 this past Saturday. That was three strong days hitting the baseball and they finally broke into the win column as +140 underdogs with 7-6 triumph, ripping 14 more hits.

It certainly would take a strong cup of courage, but here the O’s stood at 3-16, playing at home where they had not won a game (0-6) this season and were +155 underdogs to the Yankees.
However, weigh these elements. Baltimore was swing hot bats, they wanted to win at home against a tormenting team and despite their starter Kevin Millwood having 0-3 record, he had a 3.38 ERA going in the contest as his teammates had scored eight runs in his four starts in 2010. The Birds were outhit 9-7 by New York, but their increased patience at the dish produced six walks and the O’s were a very rewarding 5-4 winner as large ML pooch.

The other area to consider is the pitchers. This is a more complicated discussion because of the variables.

Hurlers that allow fewer hits than innings pitched and have modest walk totals are good wagers, especially with above average strikeout to walk ratios.

Starting pitchers that keep the hits down and have a history of being successful on the road are a terrific value as underdogs or small favorites. Pitching matchups also lend themselves to winning.

Any sports bettor loves an ace vs. a No. 5 starter, unfortunately that comes at a cost, namely a high money line. If the team’s No. 1 guy is backed by his club smacking the horsehide when he’s on the mound, the run line becomes more attractive option.

Better value can often be found when the No. 2 or 3 starter is facing a worst starting pitcher on the other team and as long as the presumed favorite is in good form and the better pitcher is not slumping, this too can be a smart wager.

There are many other scenarios, but one last important aspect to think about is the bullpen. Everything can be in order, yet a lousy bullpen with gruesome ERA and a vast number of blown saves can turn winners into losers quickly, be cognizant of this material.

To wrap this up, hitting the ball around the yard can lead to more winners than you thought possible. Stay current with the numbers and you can build your bankroll more rapidly.

One final bit of information from James book. When a team outhits the other by nine or more coming into this season, they are 197-0 all time.

Slump-busters needed for Philadelphia and Atlanta

An old baseball mythical term which has been around for years finds a couple of National League teams in need of its magic. The Philadelphia Phillies were just swept at Houston and Atlanta has lost five in a row. As opposed to other teams with losing streaks at present, both these teams are changing opponents, which might be enough to end this dismal spell. However, in other instances, “slump-busters” might include changing batting order, burning bats, wearing hats differently in the dugout or a few other more crude elements that can’t be mentioned here.

Philadelphia at Washington

The Phillies (77-58, +3.3 units) suffered a lost holiday weekend in Houston in being swept by the Astros in four game series for the first time in a decade. Philadelphia bats have taken a leave of absence, as Philly as scored almost 1.9 runs per game in last nine tries and hasn’t scored more than four runs in a single game since August 24, covering 13 ballgames. Only twice in their last 13 tries have they managed to get to double digit hits.

The Phillies will open up three games series in Washington (47-90, -32.4 units) and the Nationals have often been the perfect elixir for what ails any team. Washington would have nine game losing streak except for scoring three runs in the bottom of the ninth to come from behind and surprise Florida 5-4 Sunday. The Nationals are 15-42 having lost two of their last three games and are woebegone 2-14 with a day off this season.

Philadelphia will face John Lannon (8-10, 4.09 ERA) who is 0-5 with a 5.89 ERA in seven career starts against the Phillies. Ryan Howard and struggling teammates are 27-15 versus left-handed pitchers, scoring 5.3 runs per game in 2009. Bookmaker.com has the Phils as -140 money line favorites behind Pedro Martinez (3-0, 3.52), with a total at Un9. Lannon and the Nats are 12-29 in night games, while the Phillies are 12-4 with an on-base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 15 games this season.

Atlanta at Houston

The Braves (70-67, -12.9 units) have played themselves out of wild card contention by losing five straight, the last three at home to Cincinnati scoring four runs against a Reds pitching staff ranked middle of the road at eighth in the National League in runs allowed. Atlanta travels to hot Houston (67-70, +2.4 units) club, who just wiped out Philadelphia four in a row. Atlanta has touched home plate 14 times in last five contests (2.8 RPG), while hitting well below the Mendoza-line as a team with .185 batting average.

We picked a real bad time to all not hit,” Chipper Jones told the Braves official Web site. “It just doesn’t seem like anybody is swinging the bat real well.” Jones is a big part of the offensive misdeeds, batting .121 in his last 20 games.

A change of venue could ignite Atlanta who lost 4-2 Sunday and they are 12-5 in road games after a loss by two runs or less this season. They will turn to Javier Vazquez (11-9, 3.18) who is 22-7 vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last two seasons. (Team's Record) The Braves are -140 money line favorites with total at Un8.5.

Houston will try to extend their winning streak to five coming off of three consecutive one-run wins over Philadelphia. Felipe Paulino (2-7, 6.62) will be given the pill, attempting to hold the slumping Braves bats in check and Houston is 20-9 at Minute Maid Park in the second half of the season.

Reds up against nasty 90+ percent system

The Cincinnati Reds have fallen into the abyss and they are engaged in a battle they really can’t win at the moment. Cincinnati (45-61, -14.8 units) started to go south just before the All-Star break, losing six of eight. Things have gotten even worse for the Reds, as they have gone off the deep end, right into the nearby Ohio River since, with eight straight losses and posting one win in last 15 contests.

The offense in particular is to blame, having nine hits as the high water mark in last 11 games. The Cincinnati bats have generated an atrocious 3.1 runs per game during stretch and they have lacked pitching support as bailout backup plan, since they have been outscored by almost three runs per game (2.93) during this horrendous period.

It doesn’t figure to get any easier tonight against their division rival Chicago Cubs (57-48, -0.4 units). The Cubs are a National League-best 14-5 (+8.85) since the All-Star game and are mere percentage points ahead of St. Louis for the lead in the NL Central. With two victories already in hand in the series, the Cubs have won six in a row over the Reds this season.

Chicago will go for the sweep behind Rich Harden (7-6, 4.50 ERA), who has worked out mechanical issues. Harden was having difficulties with his stride, causing him to throw everything up in the strike zone. Since making correction, Harden has 1.50 ERA in his last four starts and picked up two wins. The right-hander has been sterling on the road all year with 4-1 record and 2.19 ERA in eight assignments.

With Cincinnati scoring a measly 2.6 runs per game in this eight-game losing streak, they are +165 home underdogs according to DiamondSportsbook.com and run up against this puissant system.

Play Against all underdogs with a money line of +150 or more, who is cold hitting team - batting .200 or worse over their last three games, against opponent with a sizzling starting pitcher, with WHIP 1.000 or less over his last five starts.

With the Reds 4-15 at Great American Ballpark after five straight games with less than 10 hits, it is even more difficult to combat a system that is 40-4, 90.9 percent since 2005. The Cubs are bashing bad baseball teams like the Reds and are 9-0 vs. clubs outscored by opposition by 0.5 or more runs a game in the second half of the season.

Take a close look at playing against Cincy the results are in your favor to be satisfied.

Reds with backs to wall, up against Rugged System

The Cincinnati Reds are fading faster than a budget surplus at any city across the United States. The Reds have lost 17 of last 27 games to tumble into fifth place in the National League Central. In fact, with there 44-49 record (-2.3 units), Pittsburgh can actually see an opportunity of climbing out of the cellar. Just how valueless has Cincinnati become, only San Diego and Washington have a worse runs scored-runs allowed deficit (-61) in the senior circuit.

The Reds problems are scattered like tornado going thru a neighborhood. Offensively, Cincinnati has a “full house” of defective numbers. The Reds rank 14th in the National League in runs scored, batting average and on-base percentage. Those numbers are coupled with ranking 13th in total bases and slugging percentage. No wonder Cincy has lost six of last eight against teams with winning record.

The pitching numbers though better, are not exactly inspiring. Cincinnati ranks 9th in ERA at 4.27. They concede too many walks, ranked 11th and don’t earn many easy outs, positioned 12th in strikeouts. The Reds are tied for 12th in quality starts with 45 on the season. Fortunately they have been able to win when leading late with 82.1 percent save percentage.

Bronson Arroyo (10-8, 5.07, 1.454) is having another Six Flags seasons, going up and down. At the present time he’s in the zone, not allowing a run in last two starts over 16 innings and has posted 2.14 ERA in his last three trips to the mound. “I’m a roller coaster out there,” Arroyo told the Reds’ official Web site. “Right now, I’m going good. I’ll take every zero on the board I can get. The more you go out there like that, you feel confident. … You just try to ride the wave.” (Dude, were with you man)

Cincinnati is trying to not to be swept by the Dodgers (60-34, +19.6), who are 32-15 at home and 42-23 against right-hand starters.

Chad Billingsley (9-5, 3.76, 1.283) has been the Los Angeles ace, but not of late. Billingsley has been hit hard in his last two starts, allowing 11 runs in 6 2/3 innings. He’ll hope to find an early rhythm and save a bullpen that has done phenomenal work with 3.21 ERA and 1.238 WHIP.
This all leads to Bookmaker.com making L.A. a -200 money line favorite with a total Ov8 and the Reds being in unfit area.

Play Against road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more, who are NL team with a low on-base percentage of .350 or less, against a team with a solid bullpen (WHIP of 1.350 or less ), with a scalding starting pitcher sporting ERA less than 2.50 over his last three starts.

Over the last five seasons, this system is sizzling 54-11, 83.1 percent. The Reds are 8-21 as +150 to +200 underdogs and unimaginable 50-100 after a game where they stranded three or less runners on base. The Dodgers have won 52 of last 75 games at Dodger Stadium and are 8-1 in Billingsley’s last nine starts against teams with losing record.

If the money line makes one feel a bit uncomfortable backing the Dodgers, the average score differential of this superb system is 2.1 runs, adding the run line as potential wager. One more aspect to consider, the Reds have lost eight in a row at the home of the Dodgers.

Can the Chicago Cubs turn season around?

Many a heart has been broken by Chicago Cubs franchise over the years. The list of failures would make even the Big Three automakers blush. Everyone knows about last year’s playoff bust and a century of nonfulfillment and every Cub supporter has their version of the 1984 playoff series against San Diego or the unforgettable collapse of 1969.

Losing and the Chicago Cubs fit together like two people meeting on EHarmony.com. The Cubs haven’t been complete failures of late putting together back-to-back winning seasons twice since 2003, which were the first since 1971-72. Juxtaposed those figures against there biggest rival, the St. Louis Cardinals, who have suffered consecutive losing seasons twice in the last 49 years.
Since being one of the best teams in baseball from 1929 to 1945 (they lost in the World Series five times in the span), Chicago fans have suffered mightily, once going 16 years without a winning season (1947-1962) playing at a .425 clip.

Last year’s puzzling ending to the Los Angeles led to “wait till next year” for the North Siders and oddsmakers believed the Cubbies were indeed ready to make another run at winning a World Series for the 101st time since last being champions in 1908.

If 2009 was to be “the year”, thus far for the Cubs it’s been like those trying to stop Johnny Depp as John Dillinger in “Public Enemies”. The vaunted Chicago offense has looked like Rex Grossman leading the Bears the last few seasons, averaging 4.1 runs per game, 14th in the National League.

The list of underachievers is remarkable, Kosuke Fukudome batting .251, Milton Bradley .243, Alfonso Soriano .233 and Geovany Soto .230. The Cubs front office decided they would clear cash to sign Bradley and move Mark DeRosa, this season the combined average of the second basemen is .224 with on-base percentage of .280. True, having Bradley hurt was a setback as was Aramis Ramirez being out of the lineup for an extended period.

The fact is manager Lou Pinella’s use of the full roster can’t work if players don’t produce. The Cubs are next to last in doubles, 11th in walks and 13th in on-base percentage. If not for Derrick Lee’s hot spell the last month, no telling how much lower they would be.

The Cubs pitching is better, but not when it counts. They allow 4.1 runs per game, which is third in the National League. There starting pitching has been somewhat erratic beyond Ted Lilly (9-6, 3.18 ERA) and Carlos Zambrano (5-4, 3.53), as the Cubs are 22-12 when those two start. Rich Harden’s mechanical problems have him getting hit hard and Ryan Dempster is a lost cause on the road with Cubs sporting 1-9 record in his 10 starts.

The bullpen’s .500 record is in sync with the team record and the save percentage is lowly .625 for a team presumed to be running away with division. Kevin Gregg has stabilized as the closer after abject start, but Carlos Marmol is a half a pack of Marlboro’s with 43 walks in 43 innings of work.

Even being baseball’s biggest underachievers based on preseason prognostications, the Cubs are only one game behind division leading St. Louis in the loss column, though backers are paying for it at -8 units. For Chicago to live up to expectations, they are going to have to average about five runs the rest of the way and hope the pitching holds up.

Blogger hearsay has rumblings in the clubhouse with not everyone pulling on the same rope. Reports have stubborn players unwilling to change to help the team, pitchers becoming testy with the lack of offense and too many lapses of concentration on the field.

Can the Cubs take control of wide open division, undoubtedly if the talent plays to potential. However, after this many games, the Cubs seem wholly capable of finishing just ahead of Pittsburgh in the Central, which means, wait till next year.

Bullpen matters to baseball bettors

Maybe it’s the SportsCenter syndrome, or too many highlights on Baseball Tonight, but it sure seems like their have been more blown saves this season then in the past. Talked to a number of people, from normal every day fans to serious baseball bettors and the answer was the same, they agreed, more blown saves in 2009 then in the past. This piqued my curiosity and had to find the correct answer. As it turns out, they are up slightly, however not as much as I and others believed.

This year, save conversions are running about 65 percent, which is actually up from last season’s total of 64 percent. From 2002 to 2007 the range was 66 to 68 percent. This is not earth-shattering news. Over the past seven seasons, the average number of save opportunities per team is just over 63 per year. The difference between the best and worst years is two blown saves per season, which does not automatically mean a team loses the game, as they often come back and win, like the Los Angeles Angels did Thursday afternoon in Toronto.

Where it matters to baseball bettors is the best and worst teams in the big leagues. The top five teams in saves are as follows. (Thru June 3, rounding up numbers)

1) Cincinnati - 93 percent
2) Texas – 85 percent
3) Boston – 83 percent
4) N.Y. Mets – 73 percent
5) Philadelphia – 73 percent

This group is not necessarily the best teams in baseball; nonetheless they have unique quality every one laying down money wants to see. Collectively, these teams are +29.8 units. When handicapping games, why this is important is if any of these teams have a favorable to somewhat favorable pitching matchup and they can enter the later innings with a lead, chances are they will close the deal with set-up man and closer.

Value is also to be found on the bottom end of the spectrum, playing against teams that have lamentable bullpens. In this case, if the starting pitching matchup is close to dead even and the teams are fairly equal in hitting numbers, the club with relief pitchers that struggle to hold opponents at bay, are intriguing plays. With these types of teams, a one or two run lead means it is slightly better then 50-50 they will hold the advantage and deliver a winning wager. Here is current bottom five teams in save percentage.

30) Washington - 38 percent
29) Houston – 52 percent
28) Toronto 53 percent
27) Cleveland 55 percent
26) Florida 55 percent

This grouping has lost 35.1 units in combining to blow 52 saves already this year. Though the Blue Jays are actually in the black for units won, they have given up leads, only to rebound and come back to win in last at bats.

While saving games is important, it helps to have depth and quality hurlers who have a great deal to offer. For example, the starting pitcher is cuffed around for five runs in four innings and is pulled. The particular team trails 5-1, but because of the long reliever and his cohorts shut down the opposition, sometimes they end up scoring enough runs and can sneak away with a victory, because the pen held the fort.

There are two units of measurement to identify the entire bullpen, earned run average and WHIP. (For those who forgot about how WHIP is formulated- Divide the number of hits and walks by the number of innings pitched)

The ERA is a fairly accurate method of looking at a bullpen, from a broader perspective. Generally speaking, most good teams will have lower ERA’s and most bad teams will have high ERA’s. Among the weakness of this statistic, it does not take into consideration the affects of ball parks (pitcher’s parks vs hitter’s parks). If a reliever allows the tying or winning run to score, the previous pitcher is held accountable, not the hurler that gave up the hit, which is why the stat “holds” was invented.

Here is the top and bottom teams in each league by ERA’s for bullpens.

National League
1) N.Y. Mets
2) Milwaukee
3) Cincinnati
4) St. Louis
5) L.A. Dodgers

12) Houston
13) Chic. Cubs
14) Arizona
15) Colorado
16) Washington

American League
1) Boston
2) Chic. White Sox
3) Seattle
4) Tampa Bay
5) Oakland

10) Texas
11) N.Y. Yankees
12) Cleveland
13) Baltimore
14) L.A. Angels

Nearly all the National League teams are in relative harmony with the teams’ records; this is not the case in the American League. Four of the top five teams in ERA bullpens in the junior circuit are average to mediocre clubs. Possibly the reasons for this is starting pitching is sordid or the offensive doesn’t generate enough runs, even if the pen does its job. In the bottom assemblage is first place teams the Yankees and Rangers. Both clubs have suffered blowouts that inflated numbers and play in what is today pitcher’s parks. While the jury is still out how good these bullpens will ultimately be, they have been masked in sorts by high scoring offenses.

This is where the WHIP comes into play to tie up the loose ends. The WHIP counts from first pitch by any reliever. Give up a hit or walk, it matters and here we can start to understand why certain ERA’s differ from the WHIP. The Yankees WHIP is 6th in the AL, more in line with how they are playing. The White Sox, they fall to 7th when using this as measuring stick, suggesting they are not quite as effective and the offense is lagging. The most notable differential is the Mariners, who have the 3rd best ERA, yet are next to last in WHIP in the AL. This shows their pitchers create problems for themselves. For the most part the Seattle relievers have avoided major disasters; however, over the course of 162-game season, chances are this will catch up with any team.

Here is how the WHIP’s shake out in each league.

National League
1) Milwaukee
2) St. Louis
3) Philadelphia
4) N.Y. Mets
5) Cincinnati

12) Chic. Cubs
13) Arizona
14) Pittsburgh
15) Colorado
16) Washington

American League
1) Toronto
2) Boston
3) Tampa Bay
4) Minnesota
5) Oakland

10) Texas
11) Baltimore
12) Kansas City
13) Seattle

14) L.A. Angels

Knowing what are the best and worst bullpens, from a complete perspective, will add real dollars to wagering account over the course of a long season.

Interleague MLB Play- It’s one-sided

Read a great article this week by Jayson Stark of ESPN.com, talking about 70-75 percent of all baseball players dislike interleague play. Among the reasons given are unfamiliarity of players, meaningless matchups (the Pittsburgh vs Washington series was a classic this week), dealing with the DH and unfair schedule for teams within same division. Excuse me while I wipe away the tears for these blockheads. Imagine the Pittsburgh Steelers whining about having to the play the toughest schedule before last season, how did that work out?

While we all share their pain, enough of us like it. Attendance typically runs ahead of the norm for these games (10 percent last season), suggesting we like the rivalry games and are curious enough to go to the park to see in person players and teams we would not ordinarily be able to. Taking it further, according to Stark’s article, if you subtracted rivalry matchups in each of the last three seasons, interleague attendance was still 7.5 percent higher last year, 4.1 percent bigger in 2007 and 6.0 percent larger in 2006.

For sports bettors, interleague play has created a great deal of opportunity if you follow the K.I.S.S. method. The American League has been the dominant force for better than a decade and not many signs point to change.

To blindly play every American League team since 2003, you would have a 709-565 record (55.7 percent) and netted +94.7 units or about +19 units per year, just betting interleague games. That’s rather eye-opening.

Oddsmakers are doing their best to curtail the situation, by adding margin into AL teams to make them less attractive, however if the National League clubs can’t win, no number is going to chase off enough action to make a big enough difference to those accepting wagers.

It is nothing short of amazing to review the numbers see in the last two years only the New York Mets (17-13, +2.4 units) and Chicago Cubs (14-13, -0.9) have winning records versus the junior circuit. With 14 NL teams having .500 or below records, this equates to 222-291 record, 43.3 percent. In just two years, betting the 16 NL clubs would have cost -57.45 units, meaning you had roughly 2,336 other games to wager on to get your money back for this folly.

Only the St. Louis Cardinals have winning record at 43-38 (+3) the last five years against the AL, showing how wide the differential is between the two leagues in head to head competition.

For the most part, the oddsmakers like those at DiammondSportsbook.com have been in tune with the total, with only a handful of teams sticking out. Over the last couple of years, Atlanta (11-18), San Francisco (11-19) and the Dodgers (11-19) have managed to play UNDER, while Florida (20-10) and Baltimore (21-13) have gone the other direction and been OVER the number.

The Braves have been more consistent in the totals direction over a longer period of time, with 44-32 UNDER mark since 2003. The Cleveland Indians have kept pace with the Bravos in this category with 51-38 UNDER record in the same time frame.

On the other end of the spectrum is the Arizona at 43-33 OVER and the Kansas City Royals at even better 51-37 OVER the last five seasons.

The run line shows potential for interleague play, more so then regular league encounters. In the last two years, games decided by two or more runs were 62 of 83 played the opening weekend of interleague action, which is 74.6 percent. Though the number is small compared to all games played, it does show a trend towards games that are not as close, since normally one run games make up about 28-31 percent on any given year.

Over the last several seasons, a number of teams have shown potential as drawing worthy consideration for the run line; here is what teams matched up.

Boston won by 1.6 runs per game - L5Y
Detroit won by 2.1 RPG – L2Y
Kansas City won by 1.4 RPG - L2Y
L.A. Angels won by 1.6 RPG – L2Y
L.A. Dodgers lost by 1.6 RPG – L2Y
Minnesota won by 2.1 RPG – L2Y
Twins won by 1.6 RPG – L5Y
Pittsburgh lost by 2.1 RPG – L5Y
San Francisco lost by 1.5 RPG – L2Y

This should provide good information heading into holiday weekend for profitable interleague action. To see a complete breakdown of every MLB team in interleague play the last decade, click here. Good Luck.