Saturday Selections

Finally got taken down with 1-2 day, but still 15-5 over last 20. Everything is in CBB today starting with 81.1 percent system against No. 1. The Top Trend is reverse perfect and Kyle has his top selection loaded. Good Luck

What I thought today – I Love Bracket Buster Saturday.

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Free Basketball System -1) Play Against favorites of 10 or more points like Kansas, after nine or more consecutive with a win percentage of 80% or higher, playing a marginal losing team (40% to 49%). This system checks in at 43-10, 81.1 percent, including 6-1 this season.

Free Basketball Trend - 2) Tenn-Martin is 0-12 ATS after two or more consecutive losses this season.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Kyle has a number of plays today but his largest wager is on South Florida.

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CBB Weekend Hoops Contests

With just a week or two left in regular season action on the collegiate hardwood, the stakes are high. Televised SEC action has teams playing for conference championship or trying to work their way into NCAA field. The Big Ten will have two important tests that will separate the have’s from the have not’s, while league leaders from ACC and Big East try to keep top quality competition from moving in on their space. As a bonus, we’ll throw in at no extra charge an under the wire Bracket Buster battle with the second best team out of the Missouri Valley against the finest from the WAC. Happy wagering!

Saturday, Feb.20

Florida at Mississippi (-4.5, 146) 12:00E CBS (split)

The Gators (18-8, 11-10 ATS) are not going to win SEC East, thus the next order of business is setting wheels into motion having a resume NCAA Tournament officials will like, which as we have found out in recent years includes high caliber road wins. Florida (4-3 and 4-2 ATS as true visitors) will have three chances before the SEC tourney to boost status and they are not helping themselves having lost three of previous six contests. Improved defense and rebounding are tantamount and coach Billy Donovan has taken some of the ball-handling duties away from guard Erving Walker, after he suffered a volume of turnovers, which produced better results initially. Florida has to control pace since they are 0-9 ATS when they allow 75 to 80 points in a game.

Ole Miss (17-8, 12-8-1 ATS) is guard-oriented, basically dependant on what they can accomplish outside the paint. Led by Chris Warren, the Rebels are seeking school’s first NCAA Tournament berth since 2002, however Mississippi will probably have to win out to have chance since they have lost four of five (1-3-1 ATS). In the SEC, any win is a good win and coach Andy Kennedy does need more from forward DeAundre Cranston, as opponents are stretching defense further out, not believing Mississippi can score consistently near the basket. Ole Miss is 12-3 ATS in home games when playing against a team with 60-80 win percentage over the last three seasons.

The teams have split last six in Oxford with Florida 5-1 ATS.

Illinois at Purdue (-12.5, 137) 4:00E ESPN

Considered as relevant as having an Indian for a mascot until a few years ago after three Big Ten losses in the middle of January, the Fighting Illini (17-9, 9-14-1 ATS) and the departed Chief Illiniwek have proved their not done yet. The light bulb has gone on for Demetri McCamey after a lackluster start and he’s become the team leader. Coach Bruce Webber benched McCamey and more recently Mike Davis and Brandon Paul and each has responded positively, with more assertive play on both ends of the floor, bringing Illinois into title contention, one loss behind leaders Purdue and Michigan State. The Illini lost to the Boilermakers 84-78 earlier and are 25-10 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 75 or more points.

Purdue (22-3, 13-12 ATS) has also overcame a three game losing streak in Big Ten play to work their way back into virtual tie with Michigan State, winning eight straight (5-3 ATS). The Boilermakers are back to playing team basketball and their “Big Three” of Robbie Hummel, JaJuan Johnson and E’Twaun Moore, are delivering like Dominoes. Coach Matt Painter has everyone on the same page, understanding their roles and the defensive intensity has returned, along with greater precision on the offense. Purdue is 12-3 ATS in February at Mackey Arena.

The home team is a mere 7-6-1 ATS since Feb. of 2002, with road team 5-1 ATS in last six meetings.

Kentucky at Vanderbilt (-1, 155) 6:00E ESPN

Ask any SEC coach their least favorite venue in the league and the immediate answer is “Vanderbilt”. Coach John Calipari will have the same hopeless feeling, splitting two halves 60 or more feet away from his team on offense or defense. This feeling will be further intensified since the Commodores are exceptional team, in revenge mode and 13-0 (6-5 ATS) at Memorial Gymnasium. Vanderbilt (20-5, 12-10 ATS) is among the better shooting teams in the country at over 48 percent and is 26-13 ATS as a home underdog or pick.

The last time these teams met on Jan. 30, Kentucky (25-1, 13-11 ATS) built a double digit working margin and never let the Commodores in the game in 85-72 victory. The Wildcats controlled the glass with an astounding +19 rebound margin and scored in the paint when needed. Forward Patrick Patterson deserves props, no longer playing like he was at lido, becoming more aggressive scoring and rebounding. Kentucky is 8-2 ATS in authentic road games having won five of their last six contests.

These clubs are .500 SU and ATS at Nashville since 1997, thought Vanderbilt has won four in a row at home (2-2 ATS). The ‘Dores can tie Kentucky for SEC lead with an upset; however the favorite is 4-1 in previous five conflicts.

Wichita State at Utah State (-7, 126.5) 11:59E ESPN2

The Shockers (22-6, 10-11 ATS) have been an elite team all year in The Valley, with their fine 11-5 record, good for second position behind Northern Iowa. Yet coach Gregg Marshall has concerns. "I think we may have hit a wall," Marshall said, referring to his club 3-2 mark in last five games, covering just one time. Wichita State will have their hands full taking on Utah State who is 62-2 SU at home, playing at 11:00 PM local time and playing at elevation. A win here would help team regain confidence and the Shockers are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 non-conference tilts.

Utah State (21-6, 14-8-1 ATS) once again sits atop the WAC at 11-2, riding an 11-game winning streak (9-2 ATS). A large part of the Aggies success under coach Stew Morrill is their ability to work the ball and take quality shots, which they are doing again this season with 48.6 percent shooting percentage. Balance is what makes this offense so reliable, with nation’s best three-point shooting (42.4%) and having at least four scorers in double figure most games. The Aggies won but didn’t cover in last outing and are 15-5-1 against the spread after ATS loss. Utah State is 14-1 and 8-4 ATS at Dee Glen Smith Spectrum this season.

Sunday, Feb. 21

Ohio State at Michigan State (-4, 135) 12:00E CBS (split)

The Big Ten Conference has taken on the appearance of one of Hugh Hefner’s girlfriends, loaded at the top. Two teams fighting to gain control of the league lead are the Buckeyes and Spartans. Ohio State (20-7, 13-14 ATS) has been like a stealth bomber, occasionally seen but seldom noticed. Coach Thad Matta compares this group to the year before Greg Oden and company arrived to advance be NCAA runner-up. “I think this team is probably more efficient than that (2005-06) team was offensively,” Matta said. Led by forward Evan Turner, a player of the year candidate, the Buckeyes are a robust 23-10 ATS when they force 14 to 18 turnovers in a game.

Michigan State (21-6) plays three of last four games at home and has to win all three if they want to maintain Big Ten title hopes. The Spartans are surprisingly not mentally sturdy, especially when Kalin Lucas isn’t on the floor. Durrell Summers, Raymar Morgan and Delvon Roe have not been come back better players after finishing second to North Carolina last season, which is why coach Tom Izzo’s club has been play against club at 10-16 ATS, in spite of lofty status. Sparty is 13-1 at home, but just 4-9 ATS this year.

Michigan State has won eight of last 10 over Buckeyes at the Breslin Center and can effectively end there conference title hopes, yet have uneasy 3-5-2 ATS record against the Buckeyes.
StatFox Power Line – Michigan State by 2

Villanova at Pittsburgh (+3, 147) 12:00E CBS (split)

Villanova (22-3, 16-8 ATS) has been undaunted in their pursuit of being Big East regular season champions and look to continue quest on the road. As good as the Wildcats amazing guards are, they couldn’t possibly have such a tremendous record without help inside. 6’8 Antonio Pena is masquerading as a center for Villanova and is their only true low post scorer and does excellent work as reliable interior defender. Taylor King, Isaiah Armwood and 6’11 Maurice Sutton all bring something most games to negate opponents frontline, letting Nova’s guards control the contest. The Wildcats are 11-5 ATS having won eight or more of their last 10 games this season.

Pittsburgh (20-6, 13-8-2 ATS) flew by preseason presumptions starting 15-2, but once it was game after game in the Big East, the Panthers looked very much like the squad prognosticators believed they would be, losing four of five at one point. With a favorable slate the rest of the way, Pittsburgh has four game winning streak and can further change minds and attitudes with an upset win here. What doomed Pitt in that losing spell was the offense went stagnant, lacking no ball movement, with too many contested shots. Gilbert Brown and Brad Wanamaker have since recovered and Pitt is 10-1 ATS at home playing teams with a winning record after 15 or more games.

Pittsburgh has tamed the Wildcats at home with 5-0 SU and ATS mark.

Virginia Tech at Duke (-13, 138) 7:45E FSN

It’s the latter part of February and there has been nothing hokey about the Hokies being in contention in the ACC title chase. Virginia Tech (21-4, 10-8-1 ATS) is not your typical ACC squad, they are grittier bunch. “We win ugly games. That’s our team,” junior guard Malcolm Delaney said. The Hokies get after opponents on defense and do the little things like make free throws, especially at winning time. Virginia Tech is 28-16-1 ATS after a conference game over the last three seasons.

Just maybe, this Duke (22-4, 16-8-1 ATS) club is seeing improvement inside. As Dickie V has espoused, Jon Scheyer, Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler are as good scoring-wise as any three players on any team in the country. Lately, the Plumlee brothers, Miles and Mason have been gobbling up more rebounds and points and Andre Dawkins is being heard from again. Even seldom used Ryan Kelly has come thru when fouls or injury have arisen for the Blue Devils. Duke is 8-1 ATS at Cameron Indoor vs. defensive teams conceding 64 or fewer points a game.

Virginia Tech can tie Duke with three losses in league play with a surprising win; however is 2-6 and 3-5 ATS in Durham in its six years as ACC member. The Blue Devils are 14-0 and 10-3 ATS on home floor, winning by gargantuan 27.6 points per game.

Learn from the power of the Bracket Buster

This upcoming college basketball weekend is a great time to be razor sharp on a number of teams that will make the NCAA Tournament field of 65 in about a month. Several of the squads on Bracket Buster weekend will be in the tournament or at least be playing post-season basketball somewhere and to have a working knowledge of them and their style of play and talent is invaluable for picking winners. Among the nuggets uncovered for Bracket Buster contests are road teams win only 38 percent, yet cover 56.4 percent of the time (149-115-9). Be sure to sift thru the complete board since teams catching 10 or more points are on 23-11 ATS move. Here is a look at four of the key televised games and much more available information.

Friday, Feb.19

Old Dominion at Northern Iowa (-3, 113) 7:00E ESPN2

Bracket Buster starts on Friday, with a delectable Colonial vs. Missouri Valley matchup. Old Dominion (21-7, 9-14-1 ATS) is 8-4 and 2-6 ATS in non-conference action and is one of the better defensive teams in the land, allowing 55.8 points a game. Kent Bazemore has taken over running the Monarchs at guard and his concern for ball security and defensive mindset has ODU living up to preseason expectations in the CAA. This should be a low scoring half court contest and the Monarchs are 0-6 ATS in road games when they score 60 or less points in a game this season.

Center Jordan Eglseder is the most likely candidate to be the Valley Player of the Year; however he’s been suspended for three games and will not play in this contest. As witnessed in recent contest against Southern Illinois, Northern Iowa (23-3, 17-8 ATS) has to have Adam Koch at crunch time. The senior has size at 6’9, making him difficult to defend within 10 feet of the rim as power forward against comparable teams and Koch has a quality array of ways to score either near the bucket or outside. The Panthers have complete control of the conference; nonetheless a win against a similar club, with similar circumstances would be a boost to confidence before the Big Dance. UNI is 10-3 ATS versus teams outscoring opponents by four or points a game this season.

Saturday, Feb. 20

Siena at Butler (-7.5, 141) 11:00E ESPN2

Veteran basketball observers will tell you the difference between Butler and Siena is location, Indianapolis and historic Hinkle Fieldhouse vs. Loudonville, N.Y. The Saints (22-5, 14-9-2 ATS) have strung together four straight 20-win seasons and earns nationally televised cable contest against ranked opponent. "It's a great opportunity for our program," Siena coach Fran McCaffery said. The Saints have a great deal of depth, but pay particular attention to forward Alex Franklin and guard Ronald Moore. Siena is 17-7 ATS in road games after a trio of favorite roles.

It’s a rare occasion when Butler (24-4, 11-17 ATS) is out of Horizon League play in televised tilt with the opposing team having more to gain with a victory. That is the case in this matchup, with the Bulldogs the hunted. A solid win against a team like Siena carries positives, as they have good RPI numbers and are highly thought of in basketball circles, which could improve Butler’s seeding in the middle of March. If you have missed the Bulldogs, keep a watchful eye on forward Gordon Hayward (NBA potential), Matt Howard and point guard Shelvin Mack who runs the show. The marquee matchup of Bracket Buster Saturday has Butler 12-0 at home with 4-8 ATS mark.

Louisiana Tech at Northeastern (-8.5, 135) 1:00E ESPN2

If Louisiana Tech (20-6, 11-9-1 ATS) could have substituted teams from New Mexico off the schedule (0-3), they would be having an even better season. Expectations were low coming in the 2009-10 campaign, with the Bulldogs presumed to be a run of the mill WAC club. A strong senior core blended with the 6’7 redshirt sophomore power forward Olu Ashaolu, has transformed a team nobody knew about into a WAC conference contender, garnering national attention with a contest like this. Home attendance is the highest in four years in Ruston and they’ve drawn a record crowd this season in their three-year old building. Now Louisiana Tech has to go prove themselves and is 14-5 ATS as a road underdog or pick over the last two seasons.

The old story of “you don’t learn anything by losing” doesn’t apply to Northeastern. As they prepared for seventh place tournament game in Hawaii on Dec. 25, the Huskies stood at 2-7 and their season was unraveling to say the least. Northeastern (18-9, 15-10-1 ATS) defeated SMU 73-62 and exploded from that point, with 16-2 and 13-5 ATS record. "I think this team learned from losing," coach Bill Coen said. "It was more a mental thing. We decided to take a little more pride in what we were doing on defense." The Huskies are 11-4 ATS after allowing 65 points or less in consecutive games this season.

New Mexico State at Pacific (-5, 140.5)10:00E ESPNU

It was a sluggish start to the season for New Mexico State at 3-6 for good reason. Forwards Wendell McKines and Troy Gillenwater were ineligible academically to start the year and McKines was the first to return, followed by Gillenwater and now the Aggies are fighting for WAC championship, having won 13 of last 16 (9-3-1 ATS). New Mexico State (16-9, 11-8-1 ATS) likes to play all 94 feet in scoring 77.9 points per game and still has three challenging road encounters, including this contest. The Aggies are 7-2-1 ATS after having won three of their last four games this season.

This was supposed to be the year Pacific (17-8, 11-13 ATS) became just another club in the Big West after losing its top four point producers from last season. When it comes to doing the job, these Tigers still have plenty of bite, tied for the lead in the conference. Pacific is not built to play the up and down game like the Aggies (average total score about 125 points) and they will have to control the tempo at the Spanos Center.

The teams have played a number of common opponents this season -- St. Mary's, Cal State Fullerton, Pepperdine, Nevada, Fresno State and San Jose State. Pacific is 4-2 and 2-4 ATS against those teams and N.M. State is 4-4 and 3-5 ATS. The Tigers are 27-15 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less or pick.

Winning Bracket Buster info and Top Tilts

In this era of corporate greed being exposed, government self-interests more important than the people who elected these same officials, it’s good to see the average Joe being able to stand up and be heard. In college basketball, the Bracket Buster has become an annual event, where the so-called mid-major schools go head-to-head across the country, being able to compare themselves against a variety of different conferences.

For the serious college basketball and sports bettor, this is an important weekend, being able to visibly see a number of teams they would not view otherwise and make key determinations on a variety of these clubs for the end of the season, conference tournaments and those invited to post-season activities.

This can be a little like interleague baseball, where bettors are thrown off normal routines. In an effort to make this situation more palatable, here is key wagering information over the last three years to consider.

The first aspect that smacks you in the face is road teams are 90-53-4 ATS, 62.9 percent. In trying to explain why this would happen, it has to do with team and conference pride. This is a big moment for the visitor, going into hostile territory. The home team or the crowd doesn’t know what to make of this opponent and can be caught off-guard. This has been particularly true if the oddsmakers are expecting tight contest, with the road teams 23-11 SU & 25-9 ATS (73.5 percent), when the line is +3 to -3.

Certain conferences have shown extreme results that should be followed. The Missouri Valley Conference teams have hosted a number of these matchups. Though, The Valley is highly thought of, they are just 9-8 SU and 4-12-1 ATS at home, including hideous 0-8-1 spread run in last nine games.

A few of those encounters have come against the Colonial Athletic Association, who is 8-7 in Bracket Buster roadies, with sparkling 10-5 ATS mark.

The MAC over the years has done well in the Big Dance and has unexpected results in this event. The MAC is .500 in 32 tilts over three seasons, but is 7-11 ATS at home and 8-5 against the spread on the road, matching the aforementioned profile.

The Big West Conference receives little if any acclaim, since UNLV moved on years ago. They are often fodder for larger schools in non-conference, yet have held their own against teams of their ilk. The Big West is 12-12 SU, with 13-10-1 ATS record and watch for these squads as favorites, boasting 7-3-1 ATS mark.

The MAAC teams are having another spirited campaign. This league ends up playing primarily road games for this competition and they are 9-6 ATS, with six victories.

Make certain to scout out double digit road underdogs. They may be 2-18, but they are 12-7-1 against the spread.

Here is a look at the key televised Bracket Buster contests.

Butler at Davidson 12:00ET, ESPN

The gem of the Bracket Buster is this matchup, two teams all but certain to be in the field of 65 teams in mid-March; however they have made situation more tenuous with recent play. Over the last two seasons, Butler (22-4, 15-9 ATS) has won a staggering 26 games away from home. The Bulldogs do this by playing outstanding defense, limiting both made baskets and quality shots and offense is not afraid to run down the shot clock to earn a better look at the rim. Since Butler became an elite mid-major, the types of players have gotten noticeably more athletic, providing even greater versatility. However they have dropped two in row Horizon League play, which will not help their cause. The Bulldogs are 12-4 ATS playing against a team with a winning record this season.

With Davidson (22-5, 12-12-1 ATS) losing to the College of Charleston and the Citadel at home, this meeting suddenly takes on greater importance. The earlier losses on the road to ranked teams didn’t hurt the Wildcats value, but this pair of defeats certainly does. Stephen Curry missed the last game with a sprained ankle and will be game time decision. Beating a team like Butler, who has been ranked for sometime, helps restore faith among those that matter. Look for Davidson to want to set the tempo and they are 17-6 ATS versus teams outscoring opponents by eight or more points a game after 15 contests have been played.

Davidson is 11-3 ATS in last 14 non-conference games and could use a win to stem the negative tide.

Buffalo at Vermont 1:00ET, ESPN2

Buffalo U. is going for the rare double, being MAC football and basketball champions in the same year. The Bulls (17-7, 12-11 ATS) are off to their best start in league play since joining the conference in 1998. Guard Rodney Pierce is candidate for MAC Player of the Year and forward Calvin Betts is worthy of all-MAC mention, but they key has been moving Greg Gamble to the point guard spot to bring everything together. Buffalo has lost last two contests and is only 1-5 ATS since late January. The shocking home loss to Bowling Green was unexpected and they are 7-1 ATS off a loss by 10 or more points.

Vermont (21-7) is again in the thick of the America East race and a dangerous team. The Catamounts average better than 77 points a game, with quality scorers like forward Marcus Blakely, who numerous double-double’s and point guard Mike Trimboli is doubled-edged threat as scorer and passer. Few of Vermont’s games have lines, however this will and they are 11-3 at home.

Northern Iowa at Siena 3:00 ET, ESPN2

Two leaders of their respective conferences will share the afternoon spotlight. Northern Iowa (18-9, 11-12 ATS) has been the best team in the Missouri Valley, before falling twice this past week. The Panthers are battled tested, with 11 of their games being decided by six points or fewer. UNI is not reliant on any one player, preferring a mix of players to add up to winning formula. Whether it is Ali Farokhmanesch dropping three-points or Adam Koch and Jordan Eglelander controlling the paint, this is club with more than one answer. Look for the Panthers to be up to the challenge with 7-4 and 6-5 ATS road record.

Coming into this week, Siena (21-6, 11-14 ATS) had the second highest RPI ranking (29) of any Bracket Buster team. The Saints have won the MAAC thanks to the efforts of Kenny Hasbrouck and swingman Edwin Ubiles. Siena brought back all five starters and averages better than 77 points per game, yet are not ambitious defenders, with opponents converting 43.6 percent from the field. Teams like Northern Iowa can bother the Saints, since they are 5-13 ATS in home games versus teams making 45 percent or more of their shots.

Northern Iowa could be in dubious spot with recent 1-10 ATS non-conference record and going against Siena who is 13-5 ATS if opponent has better than 60 percent win percentage.

Utah State at St. Mary’s 5:00ET, ESPN2

Utah State (25-2, 13-8 ATS) is having their way with the Western Athletic Conference, holding a substantial lead and will test the waters of the West Coast Conference. The Aggies are doing what they always do, just better this season. Utah State under coach Stew Morrill is again one of the best shooting teams in the country and plays tenacious defense. Utah State is the only team in the nation to win at least 23 games in each of the past 10 seasons and was recently featured in an article in the USA Today. The Aggies brilliant campaign has been spear-headed by junior college transfer Jared Quayle. Utah State is 10-1 and 7-2 ATS in road games.

It hasn’t been a happy time for St. Mary’s since losing guard Patty Mills to broken hand. His ability as scorer and playmaker has left the Gaels (21-5, 14-8 ATS) with a massive void having lost four of seven. His departure has eroded the confidence of the team and players like Diamon Simpson have not stepped in to fill scoring gap. Center Omar Samhan is a good player, but he needs someone to feed him the ball in the post to be effective. St. Mary’s covers roughly one-third of their games against teams that have 42 or lower field goal percentage defense.

St. Mary’s is still hopeful Mills will return before the end of season and a win over a Top 25 team, without him would bolster the confidence of those choosing the field of 65. It will take a supreme effort by the Gaels with Utah State 10-3 ATS in non-conference action.

George Mason at Creighton 9:30ET, ESPNU

Creighton (22-6, 15-9 ATS) has steadily improved since a slow start in Missouri Valley action, winning seven straight encounters (5-2 ATS), to move into first place tie with Northern Iowa, which is no surprise with coach Dana Altman at the helm. Altman recently registered his 300th Valley victory and typically focused the attention on his team, instead of himself. As hobbling players like guard Booker Woodfox are returning to health and Justin Carter, Kenny Lawson and Kenton Walker continue to improve, this might be the best team in the conference by the time the post-season tourney arrives. The Blue Jays are 13-2, but just 5-6 ATS in Omaha.

George Mason (18-8, 14-6-1 ATS) could be the best team in the Colonial, if they could win on the road. The Patriots have suffered five road losses by a total of 18 points. The fault lies with the defense, which allows 10.1 more points per game on the road than at the Patriot Center. In this contest, watch the backcourt of John Vaughn and Dre Smith both can fill up the basket in a hurry. Louis Birdsong is George Mason’s best inside defender. The Patriots are 9-1 ATS versus good ball handling teams committing 14 or fewer turnovers a game this season.

George Mason is the underdog, nonetheless is 8-2 ATS against teams with winning records.