Don’t bet on the Cubs coming back

The National League baseball franchise residing in the Windy City is looking all too familiar for its long suffering fans. Picked to finish second in the extremely weak NL Central, the Cubs have the look of a team North Siders are accustomed to, with its usual refrain “Wait till next year”.

Chicago stands at 31-38, in third place in their dreadful division, stocked with the likes of Milwaukee, Pittsburgh and Houston. The Cubs are worst wager in the senior circuit at -17 units for a number of reasons.

Coming out of spring training, it was clear the Cubs bats were going to have to carry this club, as the starting pitching was somewhat suspect and the relief pitching uncertain.

The Chicago pitching is rated middle of the road with 3.92 ERA; however that has been helped a great deal by an unexpected source in Carlos Silva, who is 8-2 with 3.01 ERA. Silva’s reincarnation has been about pitching coach Larry Rothchild showing him tapes of his best Minnesota Twins days, when he was more aggressive in throwing strikes and to his credit, has embraced this approach.

Carlos Zambrano (3-5, 5.10 ERA), despite yesterday’s 12-1 rocking chair performance over the Los Angeles Angels, and Randy Wells (3-5, 4.92) have been significant disappointments. Zambrano has lost three and more miles per hour on his fastball and his breaking stuff lacks the bite of younger days. Wells fast start a season ago was considered a mirage by scouts, since his stuff is mostly generic.

Ted Lilly (2-6, 3.42) and Ryan Dempster (5-5, 3.67) have been inconsistent and invariably, their best games have been when the Cubbies other largest problem has arisen.

Chicago is 11th in the NL in runs scored, with a faulty, aging lineup.

For years the Cubs ownership was more interested in making money than putting out a quality product at 1060 W. Addison Street. They sold the sunshine, Harry Carry, Sammy Sosa and benefitted from the neighborhood setting that has just a “few” watering hole establishments.

However, today’s world demands a good product and to sell 40,000 seats daily, winning has to be part of the equation. The Cubs front office went to the other end of the spectrum and has been like Notre Dame with Charley Weis, where a little success meant they were willing to spend a lot of money.

Alfonso Soriano (34 years old) is at 19M this season, being a mediocre fielder, no longer a factor to steal bases and declining hitting skills. Derrick Lee (34) is hitting .234 with 10 home runs in the No. 3 slot in the lineup, while cashing checks for 13.25 M in 2010. Aramis Ramirez (31) should still be in the prime of his career, but again is injured, which probably is a blessing for a supposed slugger with .168 BA. Kosuke Fukudome (33) makes 14M, becoming increasingly a platoon player and according to FOX Sports, is on the trading block.

After a big splash, Geovanny Soto is settling in a decent catcher, but not the star the organization had hoped for after being 2008 Rookie of the Year.

Chicago is 11th in on-base percentage and takes the fifth fewest walks in the NL and has almost no capability to manufacture runs, ranked next to last in stolen bases and lacking speed.
The Cubs are a squad sorely lacking in leadership. Players like Lee and Ramirez are “lead by example guys” and it is clear this group has followed in there inept ways.

Other specimens of poor offense are 15th ranked BA (.233) with no runners on base and 14th ranking with runners in scoring position (.253) among the sixteen clubs in their league.

These supposed “lovable losers” are just as bad or worse in the field. Check these numbers out.

Errors – 14th in fielding percentage
Assists – 14th
Putouts – 14th
Total Chances – 14th

The Cubs have permitted the most unearned runs in the NL.

Even venerable manager Lou Piniella looks tired. He’s picking on White Sox announcer Steve Stone (former Cubs analyst) for the oldest and lamest reasons for voicing opinion about his club.

"And Steve Stone? He's got enough problems doing what he does with the White Sox. What job has he had in baseball besides talking on television or radio? What has he done?"

It sure looks like Sweet Lou is more ready to hang them up then Atlanta’s Bobby Cox.

Can the Cubs return from the dead? Sure they could, however there is little to support a reason as to why. They are .500 at Wrigley and 13-20 on the road.

Against right-handed opposing starters they are 18-28 and in their own division, a floundering 13-20. If the Cubs are favored, the best advice is to run and hide with 22-29 record (-19.4) and they are 1-6 in last seven series.

The future isn’t bright either, beyond unproven youngsters Starlin Castro and Tyler Colvin. As we head towards the All-Star break, playing against these Chicago Cubs is your best bet.

College Football Thoughts

College football as we presently know it is about to change. When earlier reports of the Big 10 (11), likely to expand beyond the expanses of its name again, this time everyone took it very seriously. The Big Ten Network has become a cash cow only a few would have imagined at its inception. That forced the SEC (with its better overall sports programs) to jump into bed with ESPN and other entities to “keep up with the Jones”.

The Big Ten has always thought its importance was more than everyone else’s and targeted Texas and other Big 12 schools, like that conference was from the local Goodwill and they could pick and choose what they wanted and everyone would idly sit by and wait and see what the Big Ten wanted to do.

That might have worked 50 years ago, no more. The Pac-10 went on the aggressive and word leaked this past week they wanted half the teams from the Big 12, quickly making it the Little Six.

Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Colorado would join Arizona and Arizona State in league that could be known as – The 16 Pac(k) Conference. (Sponsored by Bud Light of course) While A&M has a huge ego problem about following the Longhorns lead, the fact is they would as big a non-factor in the SEC as Arkansas has become.

This places the Big 12 in a world of hurt. Commissioner Dan Beebe is trying to rectify the situation by keeping Texas, since they are the linchpin; however he seems less inclined to force their hand knowing the Longhorns can do about whatever they want. If the six Big 12 schools go, Missouri might be forced to go to go to the new Big 12 since the previous conference is now the Big 10 and dwindling. (Can you follow this?)

For sports bettors, this will really turn the college sports world upside down. The haves and have not’s will further separate in this revised two class system. Much like the middle class of our country heading downward, the same will be true of sports programs that are presently average. What chance would an Arizona or Arizona State have in football with the Longhorns, Sooners and to a lesser degree the Cowboys from Okie State in the same division? Yes they would have more money, with that satisfaction lasting maybe three years, but what about five seasons of 4-5 to 2-7, with faltering attendance and the revenue gains start going backwards?

And what about the Big 12, if they would manage to survive, Beebe would have to do a Mike Tranghese, the former commish of the Big East and go do some raiding of his own. That might include a quasi- Southwest Conference division of the Big 12, chasing down TCU, Houston, Rice, and SMU and adding possibly Memphis (for basketball purposes) to go along with Kansas, K-State, Baylor and Iowa State.

And what about Notre Dame? The smartest suggestion I’ve seen is for the Big Ten to invite the Irish in all other sports but football. Let them share the money (double-dipping) while keeping their independence in football as long as they add one Big Ten football game per year until their NBC contract expires, essentially making them a full-fledged member by 2015.

While it is true more than enough college football bettors will just want to see a number assigned to any matchup and give a you know what about expansion or reduction, or whatever happens, it will impact many conferences and teams positively and negatively.

Just remember, this is all about MONEY. If you ever hear anybody say it’s not fair to the student-athlete foe this or that get that person’s name and send them an email telling them you are busting them as liars. Much like Wall Street, this only about the cash and while it seems important now, like all money, after awhile it’s just not enough.

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Got a good laugh about defending national champion Alabama asking the SEC to review the schedules of other teams and politely move a few conference games around so the Crimson Tide doesn’t have to play six teams coming off a bye week. I have nothing against Alabama, but that is WEAK.

Line makers tell the score for opening NCAA games

There is this person I’ve known for years, who has a regular full-time teaching job at a smaller university who is essentially a semi-professional gambler. Kendall used to bet with bookies, but once betting on the internet became an option, he moved that direction and has stayed there. His method of betting college basketball couldn’t be any more simplistic; he watches games and breaks down the line.

By breaking the line, this refers the side and total of a contest to see what the outcome should be. For example here is what the line makers are saying about the outcome of the first eight games of the NCAA Tournament. The numbers are from Bookmaker.com and because of how they fall, we can’t land exactly on the correct number and get as close as possible.

Villanova -18, 147.5 - Projected score Villanova 83-65
Richmond -2, 134.5 - Projected score Richmond 68-66
Baylor -10.5, 150 - Projected score Baylor 80-70
Notre Dame -2.5, 121.5 - Projected score Notre Dame 62-59
BYU -4.5, 146.5 - Projected score BYU 75-71
Kansas State -16, 148.5 - Projected score Kansas State 82-66
Vanderbilt -3, 141 - Projected score Vanderbilt 72-69
Butler -2.5, 130.5 - Projected score Butler 66-64

This is what the oddsmakers are telling us what the outcome of each game should be, but is this what will occur? I asked Kendall his thoughts.

“Villanova automatically is favored by 12 points because of the conference differential between the Big East and the Northeast (Conference).” He went on to add the Wildcats guards are 10 points better those from Robert Morris, but Colonials defense is better, which is two points in their favor. Robert Morris was crushed by Big East teams Syracuse (by 40) and Pittsburgh (by 24) but played better down the stretch with 5-2 record compared to Nova’s 2-5 stutter. He explained Robert Morris would be a better play with the points if they did a better job on protecting the ball per possession.

In the other South Region matchup, Kendall sees value in Richmond over St. Mary’s. “The conference difference is worth three points in Richmond’s favor, which is the difference in the game.” He tells me St. Mary’s lacks the foot speed to contain the Spiders point guard Kevin Anderson and he also likes David Gonzalvez, which gives them three point edge over St. Mary’s in the backcourt. Because Omar Samhan and Ben Allen are both taller that what Richmond can counter with, he gives the Gaels an edge, however because of how well the Spiders can defend in help defense, the difference is negated to smaller portion. Kendall likes Richmond to win and cover.

Kendall sees window of opportunity with Sam Houston State with the points over Baylor. “Sam Houston State is your classic upset specialist. They average nine 3’s a game and convert at high rate (37.8 percent). They average 80 points a game (79.9) and are +5 rebound margin. Double digit points worthwhile.” I asked Kendall about Baylor’s outstanding numbers on offense and defense and wasn’t their talent superior? He responded this way. “The Big Eight is 10 points better than the Southland. If this is accurate and I believe it is, why are the Bears only favored by almost the same number? This is high risk, high reward bet.”

The Notre Dame and Old Dominion side is seen as correct by Kendall. However he likes the total. “People are watching Notre Dame thinking this is Big East game, it’s not. ODU will force tempo and Irish didn’t forget how to play faster if needed. The Monarchs don’t shoot well, but they really pound the glass and will get several put backs. With total coming down, great value in game I see in the low 130’s.”

The Kansas State and BYU’s matchups are “spot on” accordingly to this sports bettor; however he sees opportunity in the other two afternoon clashes.

“I’m playing Murray State three ways, with the points, first half and on the money line. Oddsmakers subtly sneaked in a number on Murray State and nobody noticed but sharps. My information is most have laid low, making smaller wagers, hoping the public will back SEC team late, which will this more attractive (wager) closer to game time. Think about it, SEC vs Ohio Valley, three points, are you kidding!”

Last is Butler and UTEP. ‘I’ve watched both teams play at least eight times and at different points of the season. Butler is smarter club, but that Georgetown loss in New York told a tale. If (Derrick) Caracter gets Matt Howard in foul trouble early, where does Butler turn? Caracter would have his way and UTEP really creates problems with their complete defense, not just press (39 percent). If exhausted Miners team had beaten Houston, at worst they should have been ninth seed. As much as I enjoy watch Butler, UTEP with the points is play.”

CBB Tournament Wagering Blog

Thursday March 11 8:24 AM

Disappointments – Colorado-Missouri-Louisville

Colorado was a very popular play yesterday morning among handicappers, having won three in a row, the last against the Red Raiders in convincing fashion and Texas Tech riding a six-game losing streak. I got emails from people asking if this was good play and my response was I don’t like betting conference tournament games after the teams had just met. This usually means both are mediocre, given they would play right away again and anything is possible. The Buffaloes were beaten soundly by Texas Tech, who worked the ball inside which led to 30 free throw attempts (23 made) and outrebounding the Buffs by 10.

A 12th seed defeated a fifth-seed for the second time in the history of the Big 12 tournament as Nebraska knocked off defending tournament champion Missouri. The Tigers were clearly not ready to play after being thumped by Kansas Saturday by 21 and carried the emotional baggage like luggage to Kansas City. The Cornhuskers, a 10.5-point underdog, followed many of the same principles the Jayhawks provided on tape. The Missouri press is beatable on the backside if you go to the rim once you cross midcourt and shot 58.8 percent in winning by 15.

It was typical of Louisville all year and they got what they deserved in upset by Cincinnati. The Bearcats play physical and coach Rick Pitino knew what it would take to down Cincinnati. "The point of emphasis tonight was to rebound the basketball," Pitino said. "We rebound, we win. We knew that. We didn't, we lost. We go home early. Wasted a lot of boosters' money." The Cardinals were dominated on the glass 46-29 and those holding Cards -6 tickets also felt cheated.

Surprises – Notre Dame – Montana

Notre Dame coach Mike Brey deserves all the credit in the world for his team’s remarkable turnaround. Luke Harangody went down in loss to Seton Hall on Feb. 11 and reports later surfaced his college career might be finished. Coach Brey convinced his squad this was now their team and Tory Jackson and Tim Abromaitis in particular took over as leaders and the rest of the players followed their lead in winning last four games, including taking down a pair of ranked clubs.

Harangody’s knee heeled faster than what many believed and he’s returned, coming off the bench. Coach Brey stayed true to the players that realistically have given Notre Dame the chance to be in NCAA Tournament and kept them as starters. The Irish started slowly in trailing 11-2 to Seton Hall and Brey subbed in Harangody and his energy and moves around the basket helped Notre Dame build 28-21 halftime lead. Brey went back to usual starters and they built a 14-point lead and Brey was wise (in my opinion) to let the starting five work thru brief Pirates run that cut the lead to nine and only brought in the former Big East player of the year after Notre Dame has reestablished control.

If you had Weber State -3.5 on their home floor, leading 40-20 at the half, you could be excused from turning away from ESPN2 and the Big Sky championship to check out another game. One problem occurred with that logic, Anthony Johnson of Montana. Johnson exploded for career high 42 points, an amazing 34 in the second half, proving why they call it March Madness, as the Grizzlies stormed all the way back to steal 66-65 win and NCAA bid. What a performance!

Wednesday March 10 7:00AM

You had to be impressed with how Butler just overwhelmed Wright State 70-45 as seven-point home favorites. That win was the Bulldogs 20th in a row, the longest streak in the country, having last lost at UAB on Dec. 22, 67-57. Butler should be a fifth seed (a sixth at worst) and is a definite threat to win a game or two in the tournament, as long as they stay away from super athletic teams.

It’s not my job when to tell coach Jim Calhoun when to retire, but given the non-performance his team put up against St. John’s in being routed 73-51 as 4.5-point favorites, something has to change. Calhoun continues to be plagued by health issues and Connecticut finished the season 6-12 and 7-11 ATS, which made the talk of them even being considered for NCAA Tournament foolish. Maybe progression will just solve the Huskies problems, as seniors Stanley Robinson, Jerome Dyson and Gavin Edwards provided nothing in terms of leadership for their team and their careers are almost completed.

North Texas won the Sun Belt title and automatic bid, by squeaking by Troy 66-63. The Mean Green has four 20-win seasons and can really motor up and down the floor. They could present a challenge to wrong NCAA tourney opponent, as they are 12-6 (10-5-1 ATS) away from Denton and 7-1-1 ATS as a road underdog. The biggest concern is 43.1 field goal percentage defense and sometimes how easily opponents get inside on them for easy buckets.

Super Wednesday of College Hoops

While all the talk in college basketball is about seeds, brackets, who’s in and who’s out, the college basketball bettor is focused on one thing, what winners can I find today? Sports bettors live in two worlds, the present, trying to win, or the past, reflecting on the prior wins and losses. The former is a healthy trait, particularly when a number of consequential contests are on tap, which keep the Joe Lunardi’s of the world employed. (Note –In the world of full disclosure, Lunardi does have a real job, Assistant Vice President of Marketing Communications at Saint Joseph's University and does color commentary for men's basketball team)

Luke Who?

Time to fess up, even if you are a Notre Dame fanatic, drinking the blue and gold kool-aid, the only basketball team that was going to play in the NCAA Tournament was the women’s once Luke Harangody went down. Three punch-in-the-gut losses left Notre Dame at 17-10, with ranked teams Pittsburgh and Georgetown up next, the dreaded acronym – NIT – was being used again. Yet, after suffering those defeats, senior guard Tory Jackson and sharp shooter Tim Abromaitis have taken the team on their backs and gotten other players to follow suit and all of the sudden the Irish are fighting NCAA Tournament bid.

Notre Dame (19-10, 12-10-1 ATS) isn’t necessarily a better team without Harangody, who will be honored on senior night, though is not expected to play with bone bruise on his knee. What changed is Jackson and Abromaitis decided to become more assertive and others like Tyrone Nash, Carlton Scott and seldom used Harangody look-alike Jack Cooley have followed their lead. The Fighting Irish are a confident club, fighting to be invited to the field of 65. Notre Dame has covered four of last five and is 16-3 (7-6 ATS) at home.

Standing in their way is an even more desperate team in Connecticut (17-12, 11-15-1 ATS). The Huskies have to win their last two games in the Big East and probably a couple in the postseason tournament to have chance. From a purely talent perspective, the Huskies are probably the better team, but inconsistency has plagued UConn who is 17-33 ATS on the road after consecutive home games.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Notre Dame as two-point choice and they are 7-17 ATS after covering the spread over the last two seasons. Connecticut is 5-2-1 ATS as an underdog and will look to derail the Irish’s hopes while enhancing their own dreams. The Huskies have won six of previous seven meetings with five covers for this 7:00 Eastern ESPN contest.

Dorothy, we are in Kansas

Coach Frank Martin might rub more than a few folks the wrong way with his barking dog delivery on the sidelines, Mike Singletary steely eyes and bluntness in describing what he sees. Let those people whine while Kansas State turns into Big 12 power and at least this year, Wildcats backers clean up. K-State is 22-4 and still harbors an outside chance to tie for conference crown and is 17-6 against the spread. The last time Kansas State was ranked fifth in the country was 42 years ago, when their coach was Tex Winter (accredited for the triangle offense) and Lakers coach Phil Jackson was 13 years old. Kansas State is 8-1 ATS vs. top caliber teams outscoring their opponents by 12 or more points a game this season.

Martin has shown to be an “everything” person, he wants to win the Big 12, win the national championship and whatever else he can accomplish. To have a chance, his club must beat Kansas (27-2, 10-15-1 ATS) in Lawrence.

The Jayhawks were removed from No. 1 perch losing at Oklahoma State four days ago and will seek to reestablish themselves quickly against in-state rival. This game will be rock, chalk, jayhawk full of emotion for guard Sherron Collins. The senior leader will be making his final appearance at Allen Fieldhouse and will want to maintain Kansas’ 58-game home winning streak, the longest in the country. Kansas is 12-3 ATS versus teams outscoring opponents by eight or more points a contest after 15 or more games over the last two seasons.

The Jayhawks are a nine-point favorite, with total of 149.5 and are 11-1 ATS after allowing 45 points or more in the first half last game and are 7-1 UNDER playing only their second tilt in eight days. Kansas State is 10-2 ATS having won eight or more of their last 10 contests and 7-0 OVER in a road game where the total is 145 to 149.5 over the last three seasons.

ACC title on the line

The Atlantic Coast Conference has not received its usual acclaim this season, with North Carolina plummeting to unforeseen depths and many others being merely pedestrian. Duke and Maryland have managed to stay above the mediocrity and will battle in an important ACC clash.

Maryland (21-7, 14-9 ATS) is a game behind Duke in the standings and jacked-up for senior night. The Terrapins fans will salute seniors Landon Milbourne, Greivis Vasquez and Eric Hayes.

“In the beginning of year, when I looked at the schedule and saw Duke on Senior Night, I got pretty excited,” Milbourne said Tuesday. “Now, it’s even bigger because we’re fighting for the regular-season title. We’ve been trying to get this chance since I’ve been here, and it’s finally here.” The Terps have won five consecutive games, 11 of 13 and are 14-4 ATS at home off three straight wins against ACC rivals.

It’s difficult to fathom, but only in the last week or two has Duke (25-4, 17-10-1 ATS) been really considered in the hierarchy of college basketball this season. Perceptions are hard to break and the Blue Devils have been an overrated team the last few years. This team is different, with production in the paint, a +5 rebound margin and positive contributions coming off the bench. Duke isn’t going to win if two if their big three have off-nights (Jon Scheyer, Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler), however they have found the answer when one of the trio hasn’t been in top form regularly. Duke is 9-0 ATS versus high-powered offensive teams dropping 77 or more points a game this season.

The Dukies are a short one-point favorite at the sold-out Comcast Center, with total of 146.5. Duke is 17-7 ATS after playing a game as a road favorite, which they were at Virginia (67-49) and is 12-3 UNDER after allowing 55 points or less. Coach Gary Williams might need two suits the way he perspires, yet he has to like his club’s chances since they are 17-6 ATS in home games after covering three of their last four against the spread.

This is the late game on ESPN and the Blue Devils have taken last five (4-0-1 ATS) during the regular season and are 8-4 and 7-5 ATS at College Park the last dozen years.

Tune it up for Thursday

We are off a 3-0 Tuesday and I believe 12-3 (11-3-1 for some) in last 15 tries for 3DW. Kyle has been nothing short of amazing and hands out what he believes to be another CBB winner out of the West Coast Conference. On the topic of the WCC, that is where today’s Top Trend comes from. Today’s Top System is not official play (needs to be 80 percent) however the best I could find is awfully close at 79.2 percent. Good Luck

What I thought last night- Ohio State deserved to lose last night, taking I believe eight consecutive shots from 20 feet or better and not converting one after taking the lead in second half. Coach Thad Matta gets a C for last night for not running play in the lane. (Don’t want to hear they couldn’t pass the ball down low either, I witnessed six times somebody was open in the post)

Sometimes life isn’t fair. Notre Dame deserved to win last night at Louisville, losing in 2 OT’s without Big East’s leading scorer and four players fouling out but didn’t, at least backers got the money.

It was vodka bottle clear last night what is wrong with Texas, collectively they just don’t play as hard as they did earlier in the season, period.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Play Against home favorites of 10 or more points like Denver U. revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, against opponent off a home loss against a conference rival. This almost qualifying system is 42-11 ATS, 79.2 the last five years.

Free Basketball Trend - 2) The Portland Pilots (good to know your nicknames) are 10-1 ATS as a favorite this season winning by 14.3 points per contest.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Mr. College Basketball, Kyle, is on 25-4 run and prefers St. Mary’s tonight.

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Hump Day Spotlights Ranked Teams

Other than Saturday, Wednesday is the most time-consuming and harried for the sports basketball bettor. Betting college basketball properly involves a great deal of time, as does looking thru a full slate of NBA encounters. Today we’ll focus on the four key games in college hoops pertaining to conference play.

Villanova on historical pace

Last season’s trip to the Final Four helped bring Villanova back into the discussion about the best teams in college basketball. For an encore, coach Jay Wright’s team is trying to better that. The Wildcats 18-1 start (14-4 ATS) matches the record of a Villanova team from 59 years ago and they remain the only unbeaten club in the taxing Big East Conference at 7-0. Their lone defeat (75-65) was to fellow city member Temple back on Dec. 13 and that loss looks far better today with the Owls not having lost in A-10 action.

Villanova has racked up nine consecutive wins since then and is 10-3 ATS after three or more consecutive wins this season. Led by Scottie Reynolds, the Wildcats are tough, have great resolve and are a lot like another Philly icon from the movies, Rocky, who has to be knocked out in order to be defeated. There isn’t much this team doesn’t do right, shooting almost 47 percent, 38.4 percent from downtown and convert better than 75 percent from the charity stripe. When it comes to effort, they hold opposing teams to 39.5 percent shooting and out-rebound them by seven a game. No wonder they are 10-3 ATS off a game where they covered the spread this season.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Nova as 10.5-point home favorites, with total of 167 at the Wachovia Center. This is their second trip this season into this venue and Villanova is 12-4 ATS as a favorite and will have to deal with Luke Harangody of Notre Dame, the Big East’s leading scorer at 24.7 points a game. The Fighting Irish (15-5, 7-6-1 ATS) can match scores with Villanova, however is nowhere near as skilled defensively. Notre Dame is 4-13 ATS in road games versus good teams outscoring their opponents by four or more points a game over the last two seasons. ESPN has coverage at 7 Eastern.

Vandy is dandy

With top-ranked Kentucky suffering their first loss of the season, only one squad remains undefeated in the SEC, which is confounding Vanderbilt (15-3, 9-6 ATS). The Commodores have run off nine straight wins since losing to Illinois and Western Kentucky in the early days of December. Vanderbilt is 5-0 in the SEC for the first time in 44 years and is led by junior center A.J. Ogilvy. Vandy works the ball expertly to find quality shots and makes 49.7 of attempts as a team which explains 6-2 ATS record in this hot streak.

Laying in wait is ambitious in-state rival Tennessee (15-3, 8-7 ATS), who lost their first conference game at Georgia 78-63 this past Saturday. Coach Bruce Pearl knows Vanderbilt will play zone, daring his inconsistent three-point attack to beat them deep. The Tennessee fans will be in full throat as their team is 26-11 ATS at home games playing against a top-level team with a win percentage of 80 percent or higher. The Vols are 6.5-point favorites on ESPNU starting at 7 Eastern and the Vanderbilt guards will have to hold up to the pressure defense better than their predecessors, as they are 10-23 ATS in road games versus teams forcing 18 or more turnovers.

Blue Devils defense looks to respond again

Duke was upset last week at N.C. State 88-74, allowing the Wolfpack to make 58.2 percent of shots. It didn’t matter to coach Mike Krzyzewski if N.C. State was just having a hot shooting night, his team had to defend better and did they ever. At a hostile Clemson environment, they held the revenge-minded Tigers to 47 points on 37.5 percent shooting. Duke (16-3, 12-6 ATS) returns home where they score 91.6 points per game to face a Florida State (15-4, 4-10 ATS) squad that can also D-it up.

Coming into tonight, the Seminoles are the top-rated defense team in the country in field goal percentage at 35.5. Florida State (15-4, 4-10 ATS) is long and athletic, forcing 16.7 turnovers a game and almost seven rejections. What holds the Noles back from being elite team is perimeter shooting, which explains poor spread record this season. This is shown by Florida State having 2-9 ATS mark vs. defensive teams with shooting percentage defense of 42 percent or less this season.

Duke shoots over 50 percent on its home floor and remarkable 43.2 percent from beyond the arc, which in part is why oddsmakers have them as 13-point favorites with total of 140. The Dukies are 13-4 ATS at home when the total is 140 to 149.5; however are just 3-7 ATS in Durham against the Seminoles despite winning nine of 10. Dick Vitale will be singing the praises of Coach K and the Dukies starting at 9 Eastern.

Magical Mountain West matchup

Like the girl in last year’s KFC commercial, nobody saw two ranked teams from the Mountain West Conference squaring off in late January. BYU (20-1, 11-7 ATS) is led by point guard Jimmer Fredette, who continues to play heavy minutes in spite of battling the affects of mononucleosis. Fredette, besides being an excellent shooter is top notch passer to the Cougars big people. This is why they are shooting 50.7 percent from the field, fourth in the country. BYU is the last unbeaten club in the MWC and is 15-3 ATS in road games over the last two seasons.

New Mexico (18-3, 13-7 ATS) was the biggest pleasant surprise in the country this side of Syracuse back in December. Most believed the Lobos suffering back to back losses in the first part of January was the signal this team had overachieved and was headed back to where most expected them to be. However, coach Steve Alford’s squad has again proved the critics wrong with four consecutive W’s and they are 12-3 ATS in home games after three consecutive conference contests since 2006-07 campaign.

The line has jumped around, but presently the Lobos are favored by two-points and are 9-0 ATS after two straight wins by 15 points or more. New Mexico is 4-2 in conference and needs this win to keep title hopes alive. This matchup starts at 10 Eastern and is on the Mountain Network.

Holy Crap, Big Monday is REALLY BIG

The Texas Longhorns were voted No.1 in the rankings for the first time last week and found out how thorny that crown can be, holding on to win at Iowa State and being pushed to overtime at home by Texas A&M before surviving this past week. The next test could be the toughest, at No.13 Kansas State. Syracuse pulled the upset at West Virginia and faces a hungry Notre Dame team that always plays better at home and off a heart-breaking loss.

Syracuse at Notre Dame 7:00E ESPN

Both the Orangemen and the Fighting Irish were engaged in close hard fought battles Saturday, the former emerged victorious, while the latter was beaten in the final seconds.

Syracuse held on at West Virginia 72-71, nearly blowing a 10-point lead in the final 80 seconds. That moved the Orangemen to 17-1 (11-3 ATS) on the year, as they continue to be one of the best shooting teams in the country at 53.4 percent, with the ability to score inside with Rick Jackson and Arinze Onuaku or the perimeter with a number of sharp-shooters from deep hitting 39.2 percent beyond the arc. This year’s Orangemen are much better defensively than the previous couple of years and they are 8-1 ATS after three straight games allowing a shooting percentage of 40 percent or less.

Notre Dame (14-4, 7-4-1 ATS) had a nip and tuck affair with Cincinnati, succumbing late 60-58. It was rare off-game for Luke Harangody, making just 5 or 20 shot attempts. Harangody admitted he missed shots he usually doesn’t, however did take more off-balance shots than he normally does. The Big East usually doesn’t leave much room for error, as coach Mike Brey explained.

“I told our guys, in this league when you have a game on Monday, you can’t dwell on it,” Brey said after the loss. “We have to get back to South Bend and get our legs under us.” The Irish are 20-35 ATS off a road loss against a conference rival.

Syracuse is going off as three-point favorite and are 6-0 ATS as visitors playing against a team with a winning record this season. The total is 158 and the Orangemen are 9-1 OVER after a win by six points or less over the last three seasons. Notre Dame is 6-0 UNDER at home off a Big East loss since last season and 6-17 ATS in South Bend when the total is 150 to 159.5.
The Fighting Irish are 3-7 and 4-6 ATS the last 10 times the ‘Cuse has come calling.

Texas at Kansas State 9:00E ESPN

The Longhorns have played a number of very good clubs this season and has played at an extremely high level except for a couple blips here and there. This road encounter is against one of the best teams in the Big 12 who would savor the opportunity to take down one of the nation’s No. 1 team. One edge Texas (17-0, 8-5 ATS) has is in the frontcourt with Damion James, Dexter Pittman and Gary Johnson. Though Kansas State has solid players on the baseline, they don’t matchup well in this department. That said the atmosphere will be electric at Bramlage Coliseum, which could offset the Longhorns talent edge with the emotion of the building. Coach Rick Barnes team has been an awful team in Big 12 play with 5-16 ATS record the last two years.

The Wildcats (15-2, 9-3 ATS) will depend on their puissant backcourt of Jacob Pullen and Denis Clemente. With all the talent Texas has at the guard position, they don’t have two individuals that complement one another as well as this duo. Pullen can drain the three-ball and Clemente has superior court presence. Kansas State has to play their game to upset Texas and that means being disruptive on defense, where they average nearly 20 points per game off turnovers.

“We understand we’re getting ready to walk into a buzz saw,” coach Frank Martin said about facing Texas. “That’s why those kids signed up and came to play for us. Those are the kinds of games they wanted to be in.” The Wildcats are 8-1 ATS at home having won four of their last four games over the last three seasons.

DiamondSportsbook.com has this important matchup has the Longhorns as 1.5-point underdogs, with total of 159. Texas is off to their best start since 1932 and is just 1-11 ATS off a win against a conference foe and is 14-5 UNDER after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games. K-State is 7-1 ATS playing against a team with a winning record this season and is 13-4 OVER after playing two consecutive games as favorite.

These Big 12 squads have split last six meetings in Manhattan SU and against the number.

College Basketball Weekend Action and Note

I just want to thankk everyone that dropped by the last 10 days, things have been sparce around 3Daily Winners. I had a horrible cold and have not done anything besides work. No betting, no anything. I finally went to the doctor yesterday and got the drugs I needed to finally break this. I running well behind on many things, but should be back to normal by Monday and might even have stuff for the weekend besides the NFC Wild Card games. Again thanks.

The conference action goes into high gear this weekend, this a number of super matchups that immediately will have an impact on league play throughout the country. Saturday will showcase contests from the Big East, Big Ten, ACC, Big 12 and the Mountain West to name a few. On Sunday, after getting a real scare from Cornell, top-ranked Kansas travels to Knoxville for late afternoon matchup with Tennessee. Lines from Bookmaker.com

Saturday, Jan. 9

Connecticut at Georgetown (-5, 132) 12:00E ESPN

The Huskies (11-3, 4-7-1 ATS) are slowly growing as a team. The offense and defense are not quite to coach Jim Calhoun’s standards, however he’s finding more than enough to build on. Early in the season Calhoun was sometimes frustrated by different player’s efforts, that is no longer the case as he is instead more concerned with the execution. Kemba Walker and Stanley Robinson in particular have been playing well and the UConn team shooting percentage has been rising to present 46.5 percent, running the offense more precisely. Connecticut is 15-6 ATS in January the last few years.

Georgetown (11-2, 5-4 ATS) will be among the teams with the least amount of depth in the Big East, with only nine true scholarship players on the roster along with walk-ons. The Hoyas have a solid seven man rotation which can matchup with almost any team they will face in the league. The issue becomes when they incur foul trouble, suffer an injury that could take a player down for a number of games or if poor performance leaves coach John Thompson III seeking other answers. G-Town has been notoriously poor home team the last few seasons and is 9-21 ATS on home court over the last three seasons.

Since 1997, Connecticut is 4-2 SU and ATS at Georgetown with the total also 4-2 Over.

Purdue at Wisconsin (+1.5,125) 1:30E BTN

Among the couple of different Purdue logos’ floating around is a train with the name built into the black and gold logo. This turns out to be a very apt description of the Boilermakers (14-0, 8-6 ATS) basketball team, as they have steamrolled the competition for the most part this campaign. With the shooting eye still not always in focus, coach Matt Painter’s club has focused on two of his staples, defense and rebounding. Purdue players are so attentive to passing angles they clog the passing lanes like rush hour traffic and are ferocious rebounders, which is particularly important against a club like Wisconsin. The Boilers are 4-10 ATS after a spread cover.

In making preseason prognostications it is impossible to know how certain players will react in college, negatively or positively from year to year. Badgers forward Jon Leuer grew 10 inches in high school and the last 12 months his weight and agility have caught up to his size and he now ranks in the Top 10 in the conference in at least a half dozen categories. This helps explain why Wisconsin (12-3, 8-5 ATS) has been so productive with guards Trevon Hughes and Jason Bohannon running the show. The Badgers normally have low turnover figures which should limit Purdue’s scoring chances and Wisky is 25-8 ATS at home versus teams scoring 77 or more points a game.

The Boilermakers have won and covered four straight over Wisconsin including last two in Madison.

Duke at Georgia Tech (+7, 145) 2:00E ESPN

To this point of the season, this is a different Duke team then in the last few seasons under coach Mike Krzyzewski. The Blue Devils (13-1, 9-4 ATS) still have a great deal panache from the perimeter, however this season Brian Zoubek and the other Duke front court players have given them more production in the paint area and they can negate some other strength’s of opponents. This gives Coach K more options against bigger teams instead of having to play small, which has been the case in recent years. The Dukies are a stellar 63-34 ATS in January.

After falling to Florida State in ACC lid-lifter, Georgia Tech (11-3, 6-3 ATS) returns to conference play with three challenging conflicts starting with Duke. Coach Paul Hewitt brought in a sensational freshmen class and has played four of them extensively, often starting three of them. The Yellow Jackets have been buzzing around on defense, holding opponents to sensational 35.9 percent shooting, which has helped them to fast start. Against teams like Duke, Georgia Tech has to put the ball in the basket with greater consistency to improve on 30-14 ATS record home underdog or pick.

Duke is 10-1 and 8-3 ATS at Alexander Memorial Coliseum in last 11 visits.

Kansas State at Missouri (-5,158) 2:00E ESPN2

On the first of December, coach Frank Martin called out his talented squad, after narrowly defeating Fort Hays State, from the lower regions of collegiate basketball. Accepting responsibility, Kansas State players has been bulldozer, knocking down everything in its path, against pretty descent non-conference competition. Big 12 plays commences for K-State (13-1, 7-2 ATS) at a rugged venue in Columbia. Junior guard Jacob Pullen is among the scoring leaders in the conference, but he is receiving plenty of help from the likes Denis Clemente and others. The Wildcats are creating more turnovers than Pillsbury and are 15-3 ATS after leading their last two games by 10 or more points at the half.

The Missouri players could get arrested with all the thefts of the basketball they have had this season. The Tigers (12-3, 5-4 ATS) have had at least 10 steals in 13 different contests thanks to players like Zaire Taylor, Kim English and Keith Ramsey. Their quickness and understanding of coach Mike Anderson pressure defense makes this a dangerous club even if the baseline players are still trying to win jobs. The Tigers are 9-2 ATS at home vs. teams outscoring their opponents by four or more points a game over the last two seasons.

Missouri has mastered Kansas State at home with 10 wins in last 12 attempts, but is only .500 ATS.

UNLV at New Mexico (-4, 145) 4:00E VERSUS

This will be the close of three stern encounters for UNLV (12-3, 9-4 ATS), having lost the last two to USC and BYU. The Rebels go 11 deep and expect coach Lon Kruger to tighten that number down to nine. Though UNLV has played good defense, the beleif is the continual shuffling of players has at times caused offensive stagnation, with players not getting the ball where they can be most effective. Followers of the program see this team improving on offense, if they run patterned plays and get to the free throw lane. The Rebels are just 1-6 ATS in last seven conference clashes.

New Mexico (14-2, 10-5 ATS) has played better than anticipated, and the same five players have started every game. The Lobos have been outstanding in valuing possession of the ball, committing the fewest turnovers in the Mountain West. Point guard Dairese Gary has a ridiculous 5-to-1 assist/turnover margin and JC transfer Darington Hobson has shown a superb all-around game. New Mexico is 31-12 ATS at The Pit the last three seasons.

The Lobos are 6-3 and 3-5-1 ATS hosting UNLV since 2001.

West Virginia at Notre Dame (+5, 147) 8:00E ESPNU

Notre Dame (13-3, 5-4-1 ATS) plays mostly zone defensive trying to hide defensive deficiencies and for the most part does a pretty solid job in holding opposing teams to 70.7 points per game. West Virginia (12-1, 5-7 ATS) recently had 26 consecutive game streak snapped scoring 70 or more points, however is 49-1 SU under coach Bob Huggins when shooting a higher field-goal percentage than its opponent. Despite incredible depth, the Mountaineers have a lot of walking wounded and would prefer to stay away from shootout with the Irish since they are 0-9 ATS when they allow 75 to 80 points in a game.

Everyone knows the Notre Dame basketball team does their best work at home and this is their chance to at least grab a little national attention, tying to upset West Virginia. Notre Dame has worked to piece together a representative club for league play and would be near the bottom of the Big East without seniors Luke Harangody and Tory Jackson, the stalwarts of the program. Coach Mike Brey will need tremendous performances from this dynamic duo, with the role players stepping up. It about shooting for Notre Dame, who is 13-0 ATS when they make 47 to 53 percent of shot attempts.

West Virginia is 0-8 and 3-5 ATS at South Bend the last 13 years.

Sunday, Jan. 10

Kansas at Tennessee (+6,151) 4:30E CBS

To date Kansas (14-0, 6-5 ATS) has been right on schedule as the nation’s best team, and the schedule had failed to bring the necessary tests to assure the Jayhawks are cohesive on both ends of the floor for 40 minutes, until Cornell contest. Kansas may be 23-8 ATS playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons, but playing in Knoxville with its fans is a demanding task. The emergence of Xavier Henry has overshadowed the personal problems Cole Aldrich has been dealing with family matters. This is precisely the kind of contest vets like Aldrich and guard Sherron Collins have to shine.

The Volunteers (11-2, 5-5 ATS) are 19-5 ATS as a home underdog or pick and master motivator Bruce Pearl will have his squad geeked. He’ll have to with four suspended players, including All-SEC performer Tyler Smith. The four were arrested on drug and weapons charges following a traffic stop after their 66-59 victory over the Tigers on New Year’s Eve. Tennessee has not been knocking down long distance shoots with any regularity (33.7) and it’s hard to imagine they clip Kansas without the three-ball swishing thru the nets. Pearl will look to Wayne Chism, J.P. Prince, and Scotty Hopson to pick up the scoring slack for suspended players and hope Renaldo Woolridge can fill is admirably for Smith.

Top notch test for both teams, with Kansas 17-3 ATS vs. good defensive teams allowing 42 percent or less since last year.

Super Duper Saturday

Delighted to be back and have a prefect reverse Top Trend to get things started. Could not find any systems that crawl over the 80 percent mark, thus went with the best one I could find in college basketball for today. Free Play has arrived from Nick. Good Luck

What is going on- For those that arrive here several days a week, you will have noticed the three picks were sparse this week. As what happened about a month ago, additional workload was assigned to me. This time it really cramped my style and I honestly didn’t look at any basketball lines all week except for Thursday about 25 minutes before the first games. I am sorry, but have to pay the bills first; I know you can appreciate that. Anyway, this might go on another week or two, but without question I will try and jump in where possible, however the weekend and football will still be here, as will daily articles. Thanks and keep reading.

Of everything I’ve either heard or read about Tiger Woods, this is the most accurate assessment of the situation based on my knowledge of big time athletes/celebrities that come thru Scottsdale.

I really like to read Pete Fuitak of College Football News but I don’t completely agree with his thoughts on Brian Kelly hired as Notre Dame coach. He said Kelly is a good hire, but Notre dame should have aggressively gone after Urban Meyer and paid him what it took, considering all the circumstances. I know Mr. Fuitak is well connected, but Notre Dame like all colleges today have companies that make contact thru different people to test the waters to find level of interest. I’d heard from people I know closer to the athletic department that Meyer had politely say he wasn’t interested and short of driving a Brink’s truck into Meyer’s driveway, I don’t know what else they could have done.

I believe Kelly was the best hire Notre Dame could make. In retrospect, Bob Davie was an assistant coach before landing South Bend job and hasn’t been in coaching since. Tyrone Willingham was a better person than a head coach and seemed better suited for underdog role as coach instead of top dog. And Charley Weis showed he could recruit skill position players and put together an offense and not much else. Kelly has built three distinct college programs at different levels. He’s not going to be warm and fuzzy, but gives them the best chance to succeed.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System-1) This won’t be a qualifying play, but one that is noteworthy. Play Against home teams like George Mason where the line is +3 to -3, off a cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog, with a winning percentage of between 40-49 percent on the season. Over the last five years this comes in at 52-16 ATS.

Free Basketball Trend-2) The Oregon Ducks are 0-10 ATS versus teams shooting 45 percent or higher with a defense that holds opponents to 42 percent or lower over the last two seasons.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Nick of the LCC loaded up on Utah Jazz at -1 in revenge spot against Lakers.

Do yourself a favor for the Bowl Season, order this guide, you will thank me.

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Rivalry Games for Wagering Appetites

It’s the last big weekend of college football already, where did the time go? Among the more intriguing matchups is Oklahoma State and Oklahoma, with Cowboys trying to make Sooners a .500 club. Florida wants to prove they are still the top team in the country and in the Sunshine State. Georgia and Georgia Tech has a lot of history and Yellow Jackets want to keeping winning, playing for ACC title next. The way it’s been portrayed, no matter the outcome, a certain South Bend football coach might be fired during the game and told to find his own transportation back home. Lines courtesy of Bookmaker.com.


Oklahoma State (+7.5, 49) at Oklahoma 12:30E FSN

All of the preseason discussion about Oklahoma State centered around last year’s fabulous offense that averaged over 40 points per game and had their three stars returning. As it turns out, Oklahoma State (9-2, 6-4-1 ATS) comes into the annual battle with Oklahoma with a good defensive club. Other then surrendering 45 points to Houston and 41 to Texas, only Texas A&M and Colorado have been able to cross the 24-point barrier against the Cowboys D. Among the leaders is cornerback Perrish Cox, who leads the nation in passes defended. Though hardly dominant, the defensive line has maintained steady pressure on opposing signal callers all year. The Cowboys are 8-3-1 ATS in road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

It’s hard to imagine a better five loss team talent-wise over the last 20 years than Oklahoma (6-5, 4-6-1 ATS). The Sooners resume doesn’t look as fancy as previous year’s, however not many top programs could overcome the losses the Sooners have faced. Coach Bob Stoops has resisted temptation to let the situation overwhelm the squad, instead asking those replacements to play their best and believing healthy players have to raise their level of play to help compensate. With QB Landry Jones receiving so much more experience than anticipated, the Sooners are playing towards the future as well and sophomore WR Ryan Broyles is looking like a star in the making. The Sooners are 9-3 ATS of a SU loss.

The “Bedlam Game” battle still has Oklahoma leading all-time with 79-16-7 and the home team is 8-2-1 ATS in this rivalry. The Cowboys will look to improve on 6-13-1 ATS November road record.

3DWLine – Oklahoma by 10.5

Florida State (+24.5, 56) at Florida 3:30E CBS

For well over a decade, this was one of the most anticipated games of the season, with an array of future NFL players and blinding speed from each team. With the arrival of Urban Meyer and the decline in talent in Tallahassee, this has become a one-sided series. The Gators have won five in a row and three of the last four by scores of 27, 32, and 30 respectively. Sadly, at least for Florida State fans, this showdown has become nothing more than tuneup for the Gators (11-0, 5-5 ATS) before SEC title game. The Florida defense has been this team’s bell-cow even if the fawning continues over Tim Tebow. They turn off the opponent’s running game like a spigot, rush the passer like a video game at faster speed and defend the pass like they are a receiver’s shadow. Florida is 9-1 ATS off a non-conference game in the regular season.

As retiring defense coordinator Mickey Andrews said after Wake Forest upset, “If we don’t make mistakes, we’re a pretty good football team.” Football can be that simple and Florida State (6-5, 3-8 ATS) knows it. The issue all year has been lack of discipline in carrying out assignments. Be it defensive linemen needing to secure a corner or an offensive tackle grabbing opposing player for holding penalty 30 yards away from the ball. This Florida team doesn’t have the look of the three previous national champions and if the Seminoles can play mistake free for three quarters, who knows what can happen in last 15 minutes. Florida State is 10-4-2 ATS as an underdog, but 8-21-1 against the spread off a SU victory.

Check the spread, the SU winner in this Sunshine State showdown is 25-2-1 ATS.

3DWLine – Florida by 23.5

Georgia (+7.5, 57) at Georgia Tech 8:00E ABC/GP

Conference championship contests certainly put a different twist on rivalry games if they are held the week prior. For the second time in four years, Georgia Tech (10-1, 7-3 ATS) has advanced to ACC title tilt and you have to wonder about mindset for this matchup. In the big picture, earning a league championship and BCS berth is far more important than defeating a in-state rival, yet fans have to live with one another should their team lose. Georgia Tech players have been conditioned to want to take down the bigger state school, leaving a bit of an emotional quandary. The Yellow Jackets are 1-9 ATS at home after scoring 35 or more points.

The Bulldogs are also in quandary, how to you stop the Georgia Tech option offense? Since losing at Miami, the Yellow Jackets have scored 39 points per game and are second in the country in rushing offense. The Georgia (6-5, 3-7 ATS) defense has been anything but memorable in 2009 and will have to find ways to slow the Jackets down, while playing mistake-free on offense. Signal caller Joe Cox has played with more confidence in last few outings and running back Caleb King has found more room to maneuver. Coach Mark Richt’s team can go full out and has revenge angle having lost last year 45-42 as touchdown favorites. The Bulldogs have had plenty of bite with 20-6 ATS record on the road in non-conference games over the last 17 years.

This Peach State confrontation is more old-school with the visitor 9-2 against the spread, which includes Georgia 5-0 ATS at Bobby Dodd Stadium.

3DWLine – Georgia Tech by 13

Notre Dame (+10, 63) at Stanford 8:00E ABC/GP

If the NCAA had a football tournament (can’t we pretend at least), one team nobody would want to face is Stanford. The Cardinal (7-4 SU & ATS) is an offensive juggernaut right now and has given no indication anyone will stop them. What makes Stanford so incredibly difficult to defend is balance. Running back Toby Gerhart is the most physical runner in the Pac-10, maybe in the country and quarterback Andrew Luck is efficient passer with ample time to throw. Pull out all the preseason publications you can find and good luck trying to find the Stanford offensive ranked among the elite. However, ask the previous 11 teams which have played the Cardinal what was the best offensive line they faced, well the answer is clear. Coach Jim Harbaugh’s team is 10-1 ATS at home the last two years. (Does Harbaugh look to run up the score like he did against USC)

Charley Weis is a large man and the shadow he is casting over the Notre Dame (6-5, 2-8-1 ATS) football program is a 1000 times larger. Since the Navy upset, the story isn’t about the football team, it’s about Weis and if he will come back for 2010 or not as the Fighting Irish coach. For a team with incredible strengths and equally persistent weaknesses, the last thing they need is a loss of focus which has been inevitable since Middies loss. Be it not for QB Jimmy Clausen and receiver Golden Tate, Golden Domers would have been in outrage back in early October. Defensive coordinator John Tenuta is known from his blitzing schemes every stop along the way; however it hasn’t worked in South Bend, lacking the players. The Irish are 1-6 ATS after their last home game.

Stanford is 3-11 and 4-10 ATS vs Notre Dame since 1993.

3DW Line – Stanford by 7.5

Here are other rivalry games of interest.

Clemson at South Carolina (+3.5, 44) 12:00E ESPN

The Clemson Tigers are playing for their first ACC title since 1991 next week, but before that, they would not mind sticking it to Palmetto state rival South Carolina. The Tigers finally exceeded expectations in winning the Atlantic Division and have six game winning streak for the first time in three years. The Tigers are 6-2 ATS the last eight years in this encounter and have been an underdog once in 20 years. South Carolina is sliding again due to rugged closing slate and needs this victory for a winning campaign. The Gamecocks are 6-15 ATS in last game and 6-11 ATS the last two games since 2001.

Mississippi at Mississippi State (+8, 47.5) 12:21E SEC Network/GP

The Egg Bowl is among the bitterest state rivalries and Mississippi State coach Dan Mullen will get his first taste playing in Starkville. MSU has played a number of the better SEC teams to the finish and it would be a great conclusion to upset Ole Miss this season. The Bulldogs are 6-2 ATS in final home game. After beating LSU last week 25-23, Mississippi looks to close the season on a high note. The Rebels have better utilized the talents of running back Dexter McCluster the last several weeks and is 7-1 ATS in November games over the last three seasons. The home team is 9-1 and 6-3-1 ATS the last 10 years.

Virginia Tech at Virginia (+15.5, 42) 3:30E ESPN

The Hokies have won nine of last 10 in this rivalry, with seven covers. It’s a different feeling for Virginia Tech in this contest, as usually a bigger game has been in waiting, be it in the ACC or the Big East. Virginia Tech is 9-1 ATS in weeks 10 through 13 over the last three years. It looks like the end of the line for coach Al Groh, with Virginia on five-game losing streak and another losing season. The Cavaliers anemic offense has been the largest contributor, scoring more than 20 points three times and they are 10-22 ATS when they rush for 50 to 100 yards. Virginia Tech is 16-8 ATS vs. Virginia the last 24 years.

Missouri vs. Kansas (+3.5, 56) 3:30E ABC/GP

The longest running series west of the Mississippi River continues in Kansas City for a third straight year. Both teams had disappointment with how the season evolved, yet one squad will have satisfaction in deflating their biggest rival. In this Border War, Missouri’s passing offense is 18-6 ATS when they gain 7 to 7.5 net passing yards per attempt. Kansas on the other hand is 0-6 SU and ATS since win over Iowa State in Big 12 opener. The Jayhawks failures bring up the past and they are 18-39 ATS record in weeks 10 through 13. This is the 118th meeting and the series is 54-54-9, with the dog barking at 10-4 ATS.

Utah at BYU (+7.5, 53) 5:00E CBSC

This is the 85th version of the Holy War and though no conference title is on the line, the intensity will be as strong as ever. BYU is after their fourth consecutive 10-win season and definitely will be in revenge mode after 48-24 demolition at Utah last season. The Cougars are only 4-11 ATS in MWC matchups the last two years. Like BYU, the Utes have lost just twice this season and are 17-6 ATS vs. excellent passing teams averaging 275 or more passing yards a game. This is almost always a competitive affair, with 10 of last 12 decided by seven or less points. The underdog is 12-4 ATS since 1993.

UCLA at USC (-13, 47) 10:00E FSN

Much like the Dodgers and Angels of Los Angeles, UCLA and USC failed to deliver in clutch situations, leaving fans wanting for more. The Bruins lack of running game has limited the options in the passing game, with opponents blitzing heavily in obvious throwing situations. UCLA is 6-12 ATS on the road after a Pac-10 home game. This is unfamiliar territory for USC with three losses; however closing with a trio of wins gives the Trojans an eighth straight 10-win or better season. Coming off the bye week, Pete Carroll’s club is 19-7 ATS with rest and the home team is 19-8 ATS for this city rivalry.

Looking Ahead in the Rearview Mirror

Let’s get a couple of things out of the way before we start. I liked when Notre Dame hired Charley Weis, I really did. I enjoyed his bravado, his I’m smarter then you attitude, it was a refreshing change for a truly holier than thou place.

In the last couple of years, I defended Weis as Notre Dame slid to levels not seen before in South Bend, but it’s over, no more. It’s time for Weis to be on the clock towards heading back to the NFL, it’s not going to work.

Chances are numerous 10-year old children raised families and could have become grandparents between Navy victories over Notre Dame from 1963 to 2007, now it’s happened twice in three years at Notre Dame Stadium. Weis deserves the blame. The players he’s recruited can’t stop the run or the pass. He’s changed defensive coaches, he’s called the plays, he’s let somebody else call the plays and then decided he should call them again. Generally speaking, the feeling is the only constant is change and not for the better.

I heard ESPN radio’s Colin Cowherd say Charley Weis didn’t just become dumb. He’s a smart man; he helped build the New England Patriots dynasty if you will. He certainly knows more about football than the average fan. He went on to add that sometimes even the smartest people make bad decisions, but that doesn’t make them stupid.

But how smart is Weis to not to have players prepared for Navy? They lost to them just two years ago, who cares if they are a foot shorter and 70 pounds lighter, the Middies are going to bring it, especially against Notre Dame. But an unmotivated team after pounding up on Washington State was out-everythinged by Navy. Goodbye BCS. The Irish are underdogs at Pittsburgh this week and very likely will be underdogs at Stanford, so thoughts of 10-2 in August are realistically heading towards 7-5.

The Notre Dame brass was dumb enough to give Weis 10-year contract, I’m certain they are three phone calls away from somebody donating for buyout of his contract. Brian Kelly of Cincinnati by all appearances is the right guy; a self-made coach who has won at every level and shown even the Bearcats can win at very highest of levels. Is Notre Dame relevant to an 18-year old, probably not that much, but no reason for this! I admire what his family life has been like, but that is separate from football. Sorry Charley.

While mentioning Cincy, I wonder when was the last time a team had over 700 yards of offense and didn’t cover. That was the Bearcats who hung on to win over Connecticut 47-45 as 16-point home favorites.

Another team similar to Notre Dame, lacking overall talent is Iowa and it finally caught up to them in loss to Northwestern. Losing QB Ricky Stanzi was chaotic blow and they lacked enough other offensive weapons to survive yet again. Unbeaten teams that lose late in the year are good play against clubs and Ohio State was impressive on both sides of the ball in dominating Penn State on the road. The Buckeyes have won by 20 points per game in last five meetings.

Stanford was setup for perfect situation and delivered upset over Oregon 51-42 as a touchdown home underdog. Often when teams are flat it shows up on defense and penalties. The Ducks were torched for 505 yards against the Cardinal and had nine penalties to three for Stanford. Oregon should have no problem with Arizona State this week, however the trip to Tucson won’t be a picnic and Oregon State is starting to play very good football.

Kudos to Alabama for sucking it up at home against LSU, winning 24-15 as seven-point favorites. A 14-0 fourth quarter run showed championship ability. Granted, the Tigers didn’t have all their offensive weapons due to injury late in the game, but the Crimson Tide’s desire was wholly evident.

In the NFL, its official, the New York Giants are as Tom Petty once sang “free fallin”. Giants’ apologists are saying nobody knows his team better than coach Tom Coughlin, trying to explain away why the Giants never threw the ball twice when at the San Diego 14-yard line, before settling for field goal and 20-14 lead. Should New York have stopped the Chargers in game winning drive, of course, nonetheless having 10-point lead would have made it a whole lot easier. The Giants may have failed just the same, but you have to try and score a touchdown. The bye couldn’t have come at a better time for New York, who faces a very challenging last seven games.

Recent history has told us to never judge Dallas until December, yet the win at Philly showed a tougher Cowboys club and a smarter Tony Romo.

The New England at Indianapolis game this week should be ridiculously fun.

The Green Bay Packers are not well-coached (went over that last week) and have put together poor game plans on offense and defense the last few weeks. Rookie Bucs QB Josh Freeman looked like a 10-year against Green Bay, who had former DE Aaron Kampman guarding a back out of the backfield near the goal line in new defensive scheme. Touchdown Tampa Bay. Packers get Dallas at home, good luck.

Wonder if Jay Cutler has Denver nightmares? Did you know the New Orleans defense has as many touchdowns as Drew Brees has touchdown passes the last three weeks?(5) Are the Bengals really more physical than Baltimore? After beating them twice as underdogs and running the ball effectively both times the answer is yes. The loss of receiver Chris Henry will hurt however.

As talented as Anquan Boldin is, are the Arizona Cardinals better without him? Bolden was unhappy sideline viewer with injury against Chicago and really for the first time all year, the Cardinals made concerted effort to get the ball to Larry Fitzgerald and the offense looked like the one that went to the Super Bowl. The Bears defense was embarrassed at home.

Good for Vince Young, with Tennessee winning consecutive games. He’s sparked the entire team. He’ll never be a fantasy player pick, but if he keeps working at his craft and plays to his strengths, he could well become a solid winning NFL quarterback. The Titans are not going anywhere, but they will be a dangerous underdog the rest of the year if they keep playing hard.

Looking ahead in Rearview Mirror in College Football

Ohio State detractors and Big Ten bashers won’t have to worry about Ohio State screwing up BCS championship game plans. The Buckeyes were whipped on all fronts at Purdue. Helmets smattered with buckeyes might intimidate some teams but the talent at Ohio State is not substantially better when it chooses not to play. Purdue ravaged Ohio State on both sides of the ball. The Boilermakers forced five turnovers and sacked Terrelle Pryor five times. They had 24 first downs to Ohio State’s 12. In other words, after five consecutive losses, Purdue wanted it more than the Buckeyes and took it.

Three observations, first coach Jim Tressel needs to hire a coach that can make Pryor a better quarterback. All the talent in the world is useless without practical application. Second, Pryor needs to grow-up, the gliding into the end zone for two-point conversion and the behind the back basketball-style flip to bring Ohio State WITHIN eight points is better served with a lead, not when trailing. Lastly, don’t expect the Buckeyes to be overrated the rest of the year by oddsmakers, this team simply isn’t that good and finishes at Penn State, Iowa and at Michigan.

USC proved they deserve to be in national championship discussion and if they play like they did for three quarters at South Bend, Texas better start beating Big 12 teams with abandon. Though Notre Dame has closed the talent gap with the Trojans, wasn’t the feeling USC had 15 players that looked like they could play in the NFL, while the Irish had around six. Matt Barkley looks fantastic and being able to throw to TE Anthony Mc Coy and WR Damian Williams is a real privilege, especially against a Notre Dame secondary that couldn’t cover a piece of toast if they had a stick of butter.

Not sure if the Notre Dame offensive linemen stopped to shake hands with USC defensive end Everson Griffen, but if they did it was the only time they slowed him down all day. Safety Taylor Mays was exceptional and took away Irish tight end Kyle Rudolph (3 catches, nine yards). The last remaining challenge for the Trojans is at Oregon and that should determine Pac-10 title. If Pete Carroll’s crew plays the same or improves, the Ducks are in trouble.

Notre Dame can say what they want about closing the talent gap and all that nonsense. The Irish showed plenty of fight, but this was their opportunity and they came up short. What really matters looking ahead does this team have the character to close 10-2 or do they do what many expect and find a way to finish 8-4?

Really felt bad for Sam Bradford in the Red River Rivalry contest and if I’m an NFL scout, my urgency meter is really up on him. Twice he’s proven the lack of escape-ability from the shotgun. The same again was proven about Tim Tebow vs Arkansas. These quarterback’s are so comfortable receiving snap, feeling little pressure and just making one read and rip. When pressured, they lack the survival instinct of stepping up or avoiding the chaos around them and are easy targets for on-rushing linemen.

Coach Bob Stoops was 3-3 in 2005 and his team responded winning four of last five, how will this group perform? Coach Urban Meyer can thank his lucky stars Arkansas could not execute when it counted most, missing touchdown pass and field goal that would have added more pressure on the Gators. The toughest remaining game on the regular season schedule is at South Carolina and Florida will be favored in all other games. If the opponent can play defense, wouldn’t count the Gators as safe bet as Tennessee and Arkansas proved.

Iowa overcame 10-0 deficit at Wisconsin and took over the game with 17-0 second half. What was impressive about the Hawkeyes is they held the Badgers to 87 yards on the ground. This week at Michigan State and later at Ohio State appear to be the stumbling blocks. Grit and determination are what this Iowa team is about, but that doesn’t mean it holds up every time. Best guess if Iowa and USC win out, the Trojans would be 17 or more point favorites in the Rose Bowl.

Texas Tech didn’t overwhelm Nebraska statistically (259 yards to Huskers 285), but buried them on the scoreboard 31-10. This Big 12 matchup had two elements almost no one saw coming. Nebraska opened as 5.5-point favorites and were bet heavily to 11-point choice, before the market adjusted them to 10.5. Evidently the Cornhuskers are a good matchup for the Red Raiders, who have won four straight. The total of 58.5 was never in question. Coach Mike Leach will have to make coaching decision as backup QB Steven Sheffield throws a nice ball and is elusive an a runner. Taylor Potts is about ready to comeback from concussion.

It was just last week Virginia Tech was the class of the ACC, blah, blah, blah. As was noted, this isn’t typical Hokies defense and Georgia Tech proved just it, bruising and deceiving Virginia Tech for 309 yards on the ground in 28-23 upset as 3.5-point underdogs. The Yellow Jackets option is on fire and here is the reason they might go 11-1 and be a solid bet. In their last two losses, Miami had 10 days to prepare for the option and LSU had basically a month in Chick-fil-A Bowl. All five remaining opponents have conventional one week.

Goal Line Observations – Central Michigan is the best team in the MAC and should continue to stay a good bet thanks to improved defense in 2009….Idaho is not a fluke, too bad they have to play at Boise State….Pop Illinois out of the microwave, they are done. At 1-5 and 0-6 ATS, they are headed nowhere with that defense….This was presumed to be a down year for the Pac-10 with a dearth of quarterbacks. Yet out of nowhere youngsters are emerging. Matt Barkley is headed for stardom and Stanford’s Andrew Luck and Arizona’s Nick Folk combined for 838 yards in Wildcats come from behind 43-38 victory.

Looking ahead in rearview mirror in college football

The world is an amazingly fickle place. When you are on the rise, everybody wants to be your friend. Once you reach the top of the summit, you are revered, honored and respected. Act a little pretentious and take a calculated risk that backfires and people will turn on you faster than an elected official talking bipartisanship.

That’s what seems to being happening to Urban Meyer at Florida, after the franchise, Tim Tebow, was blown up and suffered concussion at Kentucky. The media has decided to crush Meyer for having Tebow in a game that was 31-7 and the Wildcats showing no inclination of being any closer. Of course if the left side of the Florida line blocks and doesn’t expose “Superman” to big hit or Tebow’s own teammate’s knee doesn’t happen to be there to cause the trauma, all of this not a national sports story.

Like any good coach, Meyer had again seen a sluggish second half offense and undoubtedly wanted to give his first-teamers a chance to work out rough spots, for the eventually of actually having to play a full 60 minute game (see Penn State). Take off the 20-20 after-the-fact glasses and it was nothing more than bad luck Tebow was hurt. Besides let’s be honest, most of these scribes and talking heads love to see their names in more read areas to enhance reputation, than Tebow’s actual health.

For as many years as Joe Paterno has coached at Penn State, he as much as anyone should know playing bad opponents will improve team’s record; however will not prepare a team for eventual tough opposition. Iowa’s superior mental toughness (down 10-0 on the road) and more physical style started to take command in the second quarter and the Nittany Lions had no point of reference to turn the tide. StatFox had an angle that I’d never seen before and it rang true again. Penn State still might go on a win a beleaguered Big Ten, but they are 0-15 ATS against teams that hold opposing teams to 12 or fewer points.

California showed the courage of the “cowardly lion” from the Wizard of Oz at Oregon. Forget all the nonsense of look ahead to USC or Oregon just had hot day, these Bears by all appearances invoked the “Q” word and could have used someone like former Duck LeGarrette Blount, because at least he cared about losing. The type of loss Cal suffered (524 to 207 total yards) is hard to wash off and they are 3-7 ATS after Oregon. These Bears will have to hope there is no place like home against the Trojans.

One person and team that showed intestinal fortitude was Jimmy Clausen and Notre Dame. Starting Friday, reports were starting to emerge Clausen wasn’t nearly as good to go as advertised. Just minutes before the game, backup QB Dayne Crist was caught on camera warming up, which was a strong indicator Clausen wasn’t near 100 percent. The junior Irish signal caller was laboring with mechanics and Charlie Weis sent in a very effective package with Crist and Golden Tate in building 17-7 lead. Purdue did determine Notre Dame wasn’t going to really test them thru the air and shutoff the Irish offense and took the lead 21-17 with just over 3:30 minutes to play. Clausen strapped on the helmet, encouraged his team that they had to execute and he would take of the rest no matter if he was throwing on one foot. Clausen and the Irish showed grit in engineering game winning drive and were helped by highly questionable Purdue timeout with Notre Dame scrambling on third and goal. Are the Irish a great team or a good bet? Neither seems to be the case, but they don’t have another true road game until Nov. 14 (Washington State in San Antonio on Oct.31) and the way the first month has played out, it’s about winning and gathering styles points later.

Conference USA has a bevy of unfortunate teams, but Southern Miss and Houston are players. The Eagles pushed unbeaten Kansas to the limit at their place. Southern Miss was tied at 28 heading into fourth quarter as 11.5-point underdogs and lost by a touchdown. The stats proved how competitive the Eagles were, outgained just 433-395. They have good running game with Damion Fletcher and QB Austin Davis can chuck it around to big, strong wide receivers. They will have two difficult road trips to Houston and East Carolina, nonetheless, will be capable of winning both.

C-USA finally has respectable BCS-crasher somebody will talk about. Tulsa was 7-0 last year, but was thought of as nice story, not legit BCS material. Houston is 3-0, with a pair of Big 12 conquests. The spine-tingling comeback over Texas Tech before a record crowd at Houston has the Cougs in the Top 25 and BCS schools potentially looking for a new coach reading up on coach Kevin Sumlin. If the Cougars could conquer Mississippi State on the road in under two weeks, that leaves Southern Miss and at Tulsa as remaining visible road blocks.

Quick hits – The combination of Adam Webber and Eric Decker signifies that Minnesota has play on potential against Wisconsin, Penn State and Ohio State in the coming weeks. –Alabama is the most impressive team in the country and it is going to be nearly impossible to bet against them even as oddsmakers load the points on their opponents the next month. - So much for Virginia Tech not being a considerable factor in the ACC, after making Miami look like Duke in 31-7 thrashing. It will be interesting to see what the Hurricanes have left in the tank for Oklahoma this week as almost a touchdown home underdog. – The Ron Zook era might be coming to a close in Illinois. It won’t happen this year, but a lifeless Illinois team’s best performance was woofing at Ohio State BEFORE the game. Juice Williams never improved after Rose Bowl season. The Zookers are 15-32 SU if you take out FCS games in his tenure and might be favored just three more times this season.

Nevada needs Kaepernick and defense to play big

Nevada finally opens its home schedule, but the assignment will be anything but easy. The Wolf Pack brought back 14 starters and a number of key reserves that were supposedly ready to move into starting slots. Junior quarterback Colin Kaepernick was ready for breakout junior season after promising first two years in Reno.

Offensive-minded Nevada hung a zero on the scoreboard in South Bend and much of the reasoning given was Notre Dame’s attacking blitz-scheme coming to fruition with bigger and faster players. That theory has been discarded with the Fighting Irish allowing 68 points in next two games.

Nevada’s pass defense was the worst in the FBS last season and there wasn’t much reason to believe they were going to be a whole lot better in 2009, unless the front seven could rush the passer better and stop the run with greater aplomb. After being gashed for 178.5 yards on the ground and surrendering seven touchdown passes thru the air, it doesn’t look like defense will be a strong suit for Nevada.

Coach Chris Ault prides himself as offense coach and his offense has been offensive in committing eight turnovers and scoring only 20 points this season. Kaepernick hasn’t shown the same accuracy as before and been somewhat less inclined to take off and scamper. Maybe putting on the blue uniform will help the Wolf Pack (0-2, SU & ATS) who are 7-3 ATS at home in non-conference play.

After pounding a little Paladin 52-12, (Furman’s nickname) Missouri (3-0, 1-1 ATS) gets back to the business of playing real football teams, traveling to Nevada. Coach Gary Pinkel knows the offensive problems that arose against Bowling Green have to be avoided because the Wolf Pack are dangerous at home.

Quarterback Blaine Gabbert has quickly grown into the Tigers offense, being on the mark to receivers Jared Perry and Danario Alexander. He’s benefitted from excellent protection from his offensive line and an adequate running game churning out 4.2 yards per carry.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Missouri as seven-point road favorites, with a rising total of 60.5. The Tigers are 6-2 SU & ATS in true road games and are 8-0 ATS as favorites of 3.5 to 10 points over the last three seasons. One would expect the talented Kaepernick to raise his level of play and want to make good on national TV after Notre Dame debacle. Playing before a friendly home crowd, Nevada is 19-8 ATS under coach Ault and 10-2 ATS at home when the total is between 56.5 and 63.

Nevada’s biggest issue is going to be stopping Tigers attack and they are only 1-9 ATS when they allow 28 or more points over the last two seasons. At the very least, the Wolf Pack ought to peeved after being shellacked 69-17 in Columbia last year.

ESPN has this Big-12/WAC clash starting at 9 Eastern.

Looking Ahead in the Rearview Mirror

It’s not panic time in New England, however things are amiss. Tom Brady is just like the rest of us, after being away from your job after major surgery, it takes awhile to get back in the flow and what you have repaired, you don’t trust 100 percent. Sure the New York Jets brought a lot of pressure, but it’s not anything Brady hasn’t seen before. Yet it was clear, he’s not willing to hang onto the ball the extra tick and has made throws the last two weeks that are un-Brady like. Tough tilt with 2-0 Atlanta next.

What’s the biggest difference in the Jets; they have a coach that believes in them. Yes, Mark Sanchez has played well, but Rex Ryan has convinced his players they are good and gives them the freedom to succeed. That never happened under ol’ happy pants Eric Mangini. By the way, how good is cornerback Derrelle Revis playing? He’s been matched up primarily against Andre Johnson and Randy Moss the last two weeks. The results – eight total catches for 59 yards.

The Green Bay Packers defense was shredded by Cincinnati. The worst part was Cedric “Boat Boy” Benson shredded them on the ground for 141 yards. Coach Mike McCarthy also had a bad game, giving up on the running game that included only 14 rush attempts by running backs in a contest that was either tied or a seven-point game for the first 58 minutes. Not giving more help to offensive tackle who was being destroyed by DE Antawan Odom (five sacks) was ludicrous. Pack at 0-2 St. Louis for first road game.

San Francisco has two division wins already and will be in the NFC West hunt. The 49ers have a defense that lacks big names other than LB Patrick Willis, but don’t be surprised if they are not in Top 10 all season. Offensively, Frank Gore is running with explosiveness again and Shaun Hill won’t make many plays to hurt them. Niners head to Minnesota where they are 0-7 ATS.

San Diego has line problems on both sides of the ball; unfortunately it looks like survival mode again for awhile near Mission Bay. Chargers have Miami on short week at home, however are 0-5 ATS vs the Fins.

Jay Cutler showed Bears fans why he could be great. Cutler hasn’t been in Chicago look enough to find chemistry with receivers, nevertheless against Pittsburgh he was patient and didn’t force plays, which ended up giving his team a chance to win at the end, which they did. Pittsburgh offense is among the many not finishing drives thus far. Chicago has rugged trip to Seattle next and are 5-1 ATS away off a SU dog win.

Did you know Oakland had more first downs (6) in game-winning drive with 2:48 left on the clock, than they had in the entire rest of the game? (5) Raiders playing hard, if not eye-pleasing, could go over .500 for the first time since beginning of 2004 season with a home win over Denver this week.

Dallas was set to secure a real rarity in the NFL until Eli Manning worked magic in two-minute drill. The Cowboys almost won despite 4-0 turnover margin against them. Tony Romo might need glasses since his peripheral vision is awful picking up defensive backs at times. Next week hosting 0-2 Carolina is no bargain for Cowboys who are 4-17-1 ATS off a home loss.

What can you say about Peyton Manning after he led his team to victory. In case you haven’t heard, the Colts only had the ball for 14 minutes and 53 seconds. That's the lowest time of possession for a winning team since the NFL began tracking that statistic in the 1970s. The Indianapolis defense was on the field for 84 plays. Now they have to travel on short week, changing three time zones to Arizona for Sunday. We’ll find out if Cards coach Ken Whisenhunt is really sharp, since it makes all the sense in the world to play hurry up offense to wear down tired Colts defensive legs.

Upon further review in college football

For all the hype about USC quarterback talent, Washington’s Jake Locker is far ahead of anything the Trojans have under center. The junior was the difference-maker along with the defense that stiffened when needed. Though USC may have Top 5 talent, this is rather unemotional bunch for a Pete Carroll team. Not enough leadership within the locker room yet.

So much for Notre Dame’s improved speed and blitzing after allowing 68 points to Michigan schools. Losing Michael Floyd will impact Irish offense again; they will need offensive line and running backs to step up. BCS berth is wishful thinking right now.

Give Iowa a chance to at least cover against Penn State this week. They have good history against the Nittany Lions (7-3 and 8-2 ATS mark) and defense will make Jo Pa’s work to score points.

Nebraska did everything but win the game at Virginia Tech. They ran for over 200 yards on 5.75 yards per carry on what is looking like over-rated Hokies squad. Kudos to Tyrod Taylor for improvisational touchdown pass, yet it’s looking more obvious all the time teams that comparable or better talented teams have a real shot to defeat Va Tech. Next up hot Miami club in Big East revival match.

California might be good enough to beat USC at home in just under two weeks. Jahvid Best is the best runner in the country. The Bears defense can attack the passer and their biggest weakness on defense is at one corner, which USC quarterbacks might not be skilled enough to attack regularly. First for Cal is important matchup in Eugene, where the Ducks are 12-2 ATS after playing a game at home over the last three seasons.

Great setting for Minnesota at home in new stadium, which will improve home field advantage dramatically.

Purdue chewed on the scheduling sandwich and was overrun by Northern Illinois 28-21 as 11.5-point home faves. The Boilermakers were off quality loss at Oregon and have home night game with rival Notre Dame next. The Huskies rushed for 280 yards at 4.9 YPC. First win over Big Ten school for NIU in 21 years. Purdue has won four of last six at home against the Fighting Irish.

Can a team that returns ONE defensive starter really be Top 20 material? It appears so with Cincinnati’s impressive 28-18 dismantling of Oregon State on the road. If the Heisman race wasn’t about all about the hype, QB Tony Pike would be in every discussion right now. Coach Brian Kelly is about to land big time job if the Bearcats finish 9-3 or 10-2 off BCS berth. The speculation starts here, Kelly to Colorado for right contract.

Quick Hitters- Georgia will need new defensive coordinator, but have to be impressed with Bulldogs win at Arkansas. The Hogs QB Ryan Mallet has a gun, but has to become better decision-maker. ---West Virginia is doomed with Bill Stewart as coach. It will close but no cigar for the Mountaineers, with some reason why they ALMOST win against similar teams. ---Reports had Colt McCoy not feeling feel, however, mechanically he’s not sound after being one of the best last season. It appears he’s trying to live up to someone’s expectations.

Study the numbers

It was a pedestrian weekend overall in college football, with underdogs 27-25 ATS and the totals split right down the middle of the 52 games played. Most sportsbooks did quite well with two public favorites BYU and Texas failing to cover. Maybe it’s a fluke, but following totals until game time is quite profitable at the moment. In games where the total has moved three or more points in one direction, betting the trend is 39-19-1, 65.5 percent on the college gridiron. (The NFL is 4-2 on moves of 2.5-points or more)

Touchdown or greater favorites in the NFL were heinous 0-3 ATS, with favorites 7-9 overall. Home underdogs were again losers at 2-3 and are 3-6 ATS on the season.