ACC 2010 Football Betting Preview

By Marc Lawrence of Playbook.com

One of only two conferences (along with the SEC) with five teams in the pre-season Top 25, the ACC will brace itself in 2010 when they take on the toughest schedule in the nation against opponents that compiled a winning percentage of .604 last year. In fact, only the PAC 10 of the traditional ‘Big Six’ conferences faced opponents who won more than 50 percent of their games in 2009.

Let’s make this clear: this conference takes a back seat to none when it comes to stocking the NFL as, over the last four years, the ACC has led all conferences in terms of most players selected in the first-round of the NFL Draft (30).

And it doesn’t stop there. Miami was one of only two teams (along with Notre Dame) honored this year by the AFCA as having the highest graduation rates in its football program of any schools in the nation, graduating 100% of their players for the class of 2002. It was the first time Miami has been honored.

It’s all cash-and-carry in 2010 as, for the first time in ACC history, five 1,000-Yard Rushers return. And with Virginia Tech – the top defensive team in the land since 2004 - anchoring this loop, there is a lot to like about the ACC.

Note: Team writeups excerpted from the 2010 PLAYBOOK Football Preview magazine. Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback. Designated ‘Play On’ and ‘Play Against’ Best Bets follow each team’s preview.

Atlantic Division

BOSTON COLLEGE – *8 / 6
TEAM THEME: FOOL US ONCE
Thanks to a defense that ranked 14th against the run and 19th in total points allowed, the Eagles surpassed all expectations in 2009. Picked to finish last in the ACC Atlantic Division, the Eagles rewarded their backers with an eight-win season and an Emerald Bowl appearance. That was without 2008 defensive player of the year Mark Herzlich, who sat out the entire season with bone cancer. Herzlich is back and he joins ACC defensive rookie of the year Luke Kuechly, who led the conference in tackles per game, to anchor a solid linebacking corps. The defensive effort was really no surprise considering HC Frank Spaziani’s roots. In fact, the winning season should have come as no surprise as Virginia Tech is the only ACC team with more wins than BC over the past four seasons. Another winning season in Chestnut Hill? Don’t be surprised.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. NC State (10/9)

CLEMSON – *7 / 6
TEAM THEME - HOPE ‘SPILLERS’ OVER
When a team loses a star RB like C.J. Spiller to the 1st round of the NFL draft, along with its top three WR’s from the previous season, it generally spells doom. Especially when that team goes toe-to-toe with no less than seven bowlers from the previous season. But Dabo Swinney is not a doomsayer and he refuses to believe his team is primed to take a step back from last year’s nine-win effort. Swinney, in fact, sees the glass being more than half full, noting four of his top five tacklers from last year’s swarming defense are back. So is QB Kyle Parker, who won nine games as a redshirt freshman last season, including a Music City Bowl win over Kentucky. It’s obvious Swinney is from the Brylcreem school of coaching – he believes ‘a little dab will do ya.’ Another nine-win season? Now wouldn’t that be debonair!
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Florida St (11/13)

FLORIDA STATE - *10 / 6
TEAM THEME: JIMBO-LAYA
It’s official: legendary coach Bobby Bowden has finally retired and will now be working full-time on his great-grandfathering skills as he hands the keys over to Jimbo Fisher. Fisher needs to improve on a recipe that has seen the Seminoles go 16-16 in ACC play over the last four seasons. QB Christian Ponder returns for his senior season after a shoulder injury ended his 2009 campaign after nine games. Despite the early exit, Ponder still led the ACC in total offense and with nearly the entire offensive starting cast back, don’t be surprised to see the exciting QB on more than a few Heisman ballots. With five Top 25 foes dotting this season’s schedule, including road trips to Norman and Miami, it may just take a Heisman-like effort for the Cracker Barrel folks to forget about ol’ Bobby.
PLAY ON: as dog vs. Florida (11/27)

MARYLAND – 7 / 5
TEAM THEME: SHELL-SHOCKED
After racing out to a 31-7 record in his first three years, it’s been a slow demise for Ralph Friedgen seeing that his Turtles have posted four losing seasons in the last six years. A season-ending seven-loss skein sealed their 2009 fate and as a result, snapped a three-year bowl streak. Despite a scoring and pass defense that was the worst in the ACC last year, half of the Terrapins’ 10 losses were by a meager 3.4 PPG. Thus, there’s still some hope in College Park – but a slimmed-down ‘Fridge’ will have to start serving up more victories in order to satisfy the faithful. The Terps will rely on RB Da’rel Scott (one of five 1,000-yard rushers returning to the ACC this season) to pick up the pace. A mid-season stretch that finds them on the road in four of five games will likely decide if these Turtles can sprint to the finish.
PLAY ON: as DD dog vs. Clemson (10/16)

NORTH CAROLINA STATE – *7 / 5
TEAM THEME: DANCING WITH THE STARS
Along with Buffalo, NC State is the only FBS team in the nation that improved its numbers on both sides of the ball while declining both SU and ATS in 2009. That almost always signals improvement the following season. Thus, we’ll be dancing with these Wolves – especially with QB Russell Wilson donning the cleats. The junior has tossed for 48 TD’s and run for eight others in his two seasons at Raleigh and is on course to break all of Philip Rivers’ records. His dance partner is WR Owen Spencer, who broke the ACC record for the second straight year in yards per reception (25.5 – tops in the nation). The choreographer of this group is HC Tom O’Brien. O’Brien, himself, has stepped on some toes along the way, posting an 84-65-2 overall ATS mark, including 56-38-1 ATS in conference play and 17-2-1 ATS versus foes off back-to-back ATS wins. We like those moves.
PLAY ON: as dog vs. Florida St (10/28)

WAKE FOREST – 6 / 7
TEAM THEME: TURNOVER IS FAIR PLAY
After four consecutive winning seasons in which they averaged more than eight wins per year, the Demons fell below the surface with a 5-7 effort in 2009. That makes them a genuine ‘Mission Team’ in 2010 and we’ll be more than anxious to support them in this revenge year. Unfortunately, we’ll be doing so without the services of 4-year starter QB Riley Skinner, who totaled nearly 10,000 yards of offense in his career. An even scarier thought is that no QB on the roster has completed a collegiate pass. However, there’s more than one way to ‘skin’ an opponent and the stat that grabs our attention is quite simple: in 2009, the Deacons were a negative -5 in turnovers after being +13, +9 and +17 the previous three seasons. Skinner or not, look for the Deacons to ‘Wake’ up in 2010.
PLAY ON: as dog vs. Florida St (9/25)

Coastal Division

DUKE – 9 / 6
TEAM THEME: DEVILS GET THEIR DUE
Like it is for the devil down below, things are looking up in Durham. Three conference wins in 2009 were one more than Duke had won the previous three years combined. In fact, the nine wins tallied in two years under HC David Cutcliffe is only one less than the Blue Devils won the first eight years of the decade. The loss of QB Thaddeus Lewis, only the second signal caller in ACC history to toss for more than 10,000 yards, will hurt. However, nine other offensive starters return from a unit that averaged over 25 PPG, including three wideouts who accounted for over 2,400 yards and 15 TD’s. Not to play Devil’s advocate, but one fact is certain if these cellar-dwellers expect to surface: Cutcliffe will need to avoid a perpetual season-ending slide that has seen Duke go 3-37 in each of the final four games of the season since 2000.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Army (9/25)

GEORGIA TECH – *6 / 8
TEAM THEME: RUSH TO JUDGEMENT
With Al Groh handling the defensive coordinator duties, the Jackets coaching staff now boasts the last three ACC Coaches of the Year. Offensive-minded HC Paul Johnson, winner of the last two awards, will rely on Groh to shore up a defense that allowed over 25 PPG and almost 5 yards per rush. Despite the defensive deficiencies, the Jackets still recorded 11 wins – the most since their 1990 national championship season. The offense has no such concerns as QB Josh Nesbitt is back at the helm. Nesbitt is the perfect caretaker for Johnson’s triple-option offense, becoming only the second QB in ACC history to rush for over 1,000 yards in a season. Despite losing Jonathon Dwyer, last season’s second-ranked rushing attack (295 YPG) shouldn’t miss a beat as Roddy Jones (7.7 YPC) and Anthony Allen (26 career TD’s) return to Atlanta. Looks like another ACC title ‘run’ for the Ramblin’ Wreck.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Virginia Tech (11/4)

MIAMI, FLA – *6 / 8
TEAM THEME: PUNCH AND JACORY
A Canes conundrum occurred last year when QB Jacory Harris evolved as the full-time starter and, despite playing hurt throughout the 2nd-half of the season, proceeded to lead Miami to a 9-4 record, their most wins since 2005. What Randy Shannon learned is that there is little-to-no depth behind Harris and the fate of this season lies within his rail-thin frame. Like last year, the Canes will be tested early as three of Miami’s first four games will be on the road against teams that won bowl games last season. In fact, UM will take on no less than eight bowlers in 2010. Shannon will need to rely on the strength of this team – a defensive line that returns three starters along with 2009 projected starter Adewale Ojome, who missed the season with a broken jaw after a taking a punch from a teammate. If Harris can stay healthy, the Canes may deliver a few more knockout blows.
PLAY ON: as dog vs. Clemson (10/2)

NORTH CAROLINA – *10 / 9
TEAM THEME: WELL-HEELED
While our favorite meaning of the word ‘loaded’ comes courtesy of our local watering hole, we’ll use Webster’s version to describe the 2010 Tar Heels: containing bullets or other ammunition and ready to fire. And ready they are! Ten starters are back on offense, including virtually every OL starter that went down at one time or another to injuries. Nine starters are back from a defense that has combined to make a total of 234 starts and held 13 opponents to 94 YPG below their total offensive average. Included in those not-so ‘baby’ blues are all four senior DB’s and DE Robert Quinn, the ACC leader in sacks. In fact, five all-star defensive candidates decided to forego the NFL draft to return to Chapel Hill. If this team stays healthy and can overcome a top-heavy schedule ‘loaded’ with nine winning opponents, they might force Webster to create a few new adjectives.
PLAY ON: vs. Georgia Tech (9/18)

VIRGINIA – *6 / 7
TEAM THEME: LONDON BRIDGE
Back-to-back losing seasons spelled the end of the line for Al Groh. His replacement, Mike London, will try to bridge a winning season despite returning only six starters on each side of the ball. London coached the Richmond Spiders to a 24-5 mark the last two years, including a FCS championship in 2008. Ironically, the former UVA assistant makes his Cavaliers’ debut at home against the Spiders. He’ll need improvement out of senior triggerman Mark Veria, who started eight games last season – a not so proud accomplishment considering the Cavs’ offense finished dead last in the ACC in overall yardage and in scoring in 2009. A tough opening six-game schedule (4 bowlers, 1 FCS playoff team) and a treacherous five-game road slate (foes a combined 43-22), likely means the bridge keeps crumbling in Charlottesville.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Maryland (11/13)

VIRGINIA TECH – *8 / 5
TEAM THEME: AT-TEN-TION
Gobblers’ 10-plus wins in each of the last six seasons puts them in select company as only Texas can claim as many double-digit win seasons during that span. It’s been no surprise that it’s been the defense leading the way, allowing a nation-low 268 YPG since 2004. Thanks to the smothering ‘D’, the Hokies have amazingly not lost a game by more than 10 points in their last 39 tries. However, with only five defensive starters back, it may be the offense that actually carries the load in 2010. And loaded they are. QB Tyrod Taylor (5th in the nation in passing efficiency) returns along with RB’s Ryan Williams (1,655 yards – 3rd most by a freshman in ACC history) and Darren Evans (top back in the conference heading into 2009 before a season-ending knee injury). A season-opening victory over Boise State should put Beamer’s boys in the center of the BCS map.
PLAY ON: as dog vs. Miami Fla (11/20)

Order a copy of Marc's outstanding magazine at Playbook.com.

Hurry up Tuesday

This whole 2-1 thing is working out rather well for bankroll builders. Have to make this quick, running late I know. Kick ass Kyle has another hopefully Free Winner. The Top Trend is perfection and a 83.3 percent Big Ten system is runnin’. Good Luck

What I thought today- (From 11:30 MST) The NBA returns to complete the remainder of the regular season and rumors and trades are flying fast and furious as teams look to position themselves for playoff seedings and runs. NBA bettors will have to adjust quickly.

As for today, the time off can not only break the rhythm of a given team, but also the handicapper. Excessive time off can create doubt, which is shown by not one game having moved more than a point on side action. Totals have shown more movement with New Jersey at Charlotte up two from opening 185.5 and Clippers and Trailblazers up 2.5-points to 193.5.

Possibly another explanation is bettors are getting a late start or the numbers are sharp, since the only side move of note in college basketball betting is Murray State, moving from -25 to -27, not exactly desirable either way for a team that wins by 23.8 points per game at home and holds opponents to 38.4 shooting.

The college totals are showing action heading in both directions. Favorites Hofstra, Georgia State, Virginia Tech and Michigan have all had totals move upward, anywhere from 2.5 to four points.

Underdogs North Carolina and Cincinnati have seen their matchups drop at least two points from original number.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Play on road favorites of 10 or more points like Michigan State in a game involving two average three point shooting teams (32-36.5 percent), with the Spartans a good ball handling team at 14.4 or less turnovers vs. an average pressure defense (14.5-17.5 TO) after 15 or more games on the year. Since 1997 this system is 25-5 ATS.

Free Basketball Trend - 2) Indiana State is 8-0 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season, winning by 8.2 points per game.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Even though I’ve been doing almost as well as Kyle, he’s on cruise control lapping the field. He likes Georgia Tech big tonight.

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College Basketball Betting Weekend

The college basketball slate is full of games for Saturday and Sunday, with a myriad of betting choices. Many sports bettors love the action and the ability to view what they’ve bet on and we have keyed on the most important games of the weekend in detail. Check out the most pertinent of information before making your selections this weekend. Lines from Bookmaker.com.

Saturday, Jan. 16

Dayton at Xavier (-5.5,135) 11:00E ESPN2

The weight of expectations starts to take hold as Dayton (13-3, 7-6 ATS) is the favorite to end Xavier’s run as Atlantic-10 champions. The Flyers, under coach Brian Gregory, are built with defense and rebounding as the cornerstones and this season they have a wider array of players that can put the ball in the basket. Forward Chris Wright has led the way for Dayton as he tops the team in both scoring and rebounding, while sophomore guard Chris Johnson is second in points scored, from a fairly balanced attack. The Flyers have won last two games, but failed to cover each and are 4-1 and 2-3 ATS after failing to cover the spread this season.

Xavier (11-5, 10-5 ATS) might not be a powerful as recent years; however they are still extremely dangerous. New coach Chris Mack has been tinkering with the lineups and inserted sophomore center Kenny Frease at the end of last month. Frease has added size, scored a few points and mostly importantly improved the rebounding, giving Musketeers fans hope they might be stronger A-10 contender than presumed. Xavier does need greater contributions from Jordan Crawford, the team’s only true swingman. His scoring has been uneven most of the year for Musketeers team that is 22-12 ATS at home the last few seasons.

In the last dozen years, Xavier is 12-0 SU hosting Dayton with 8-4 ATS record.

Syracuse at West Virginia (-4.5,144) 12:00E ESPN

It’s the middle of three road games for the Orangemen, heading to Morgantown. As good as Syracuse (16-1, 10-3 ATS) has been, they’ve only faced one real physical team all season which was Pittsburgh and they lost. West Virginia (13-2, 6-8 ATS) will be the second such foe on the schedule with those qualifications and more talent. This becomes a critical game for Syracuse, since if they don’t compete in standing up with more physical style the Big East plays, every team the rest of the year will look to push and shove the Orange around. Syracuse has won and covered three in a row and is 15-5 ATS following a SU win.

Forward Devin Ebanks is known as a scorer, but has shown a maturity to his game, sacrificing shots, by passing the ball to teammates that have more wide open shots and rebounding the ball. In other words, the kind of unselfish play coach Bob Huggins wants. Da’Sean Butler is another playing a high level, being mentioned already for various Big East honors. West Virginia will certainly test Syracuse’s manhood and the loud Mountaineer fans will try to make an impact. This is astonishing; coach Huggins teams are just 8-20 ATS at home vs. top caliber teams outscoring their opponents by 12 or more points.

The ‘Cuse is 14-3 and 11-6 ATS in last 17 outings vs. the ‘Teers.

Georgia Tech at North Carolina (-7,155) 2:00E ESPN

The Yellow Jackets (12-4. 7-4 ATS) have made great strides of improvement this season, thanks to coach Paul Hewitt’s recruiting efforts, yet the foundation of this club is 6-9 forward Gani Lawal. The junior received an appraisal last spring that he was not a first round draft choice in the eyes of NBA personnel and took the constructive criticism to heart. He’s emerged as a team leader, showing the first year players what it takes to succeed at this level and Lawal will have to have a big game against North Carolina’s tall timber in the frontcourt. The Yellow Jackets are only 46-70 ATS in road games vs. shooting teams making 45 percent or more of their attempts.

Watching North Carolina (12-5. 6-9 ATS) play this season, is much like a buffet restaurant. The vast amount of food looks delicious, you load up the plate, but half way thru you realize the food doesn’t have a lot of taste and in the end; you are left content but not satisfied. That is what Tar Heel basketball has been to this point, often good, sometimes remarkable, but over 40 minutes, too many dead spots to make it truly satisfying. Turnovers are what continue to plague North Carolina and it’s just not the guards, all players have been guilty. Unless they clean this area up, they will go on as poor ACC wager with 6-14 ATS record.

Since ’97, the Tar Heels are 11-0 and 6-5 ATS against Georgia Tech.

California at Washington (-1.5,159) 2:30E FSN

The Cal Bears (11-5, 8-7 ATS) have been among the more disappointing teams in the country this season. They along with Washington figured to be the best of a mediocre Pac-10 lot. Unfortunately, like many teams that are perimeter oriented, sometimes the shots don’t fall and opposing teams are better prepared this year for California’s long range attack. Coach Mike Montgomery is hoping for the continued development of centers Markhuri Sanders-Frison and Max Zhang to create more options for team. The Bears won at Pullman 93-88 Thursday and are 2-7 ATS after scoring 90 or more points.

Washington (11-5, 4-12 ATS) too has disappointed, in spite of a strong returning crew and nice blend of reserves and incoming freshmen. The Huskies weaknesses have been the defense does not man up well and is easier to break down in longer possessions or if they don’t create steals. When forced into a half-court game, the outside shooting has not been reliable and opponents keep the lane locked tight, preventing points in the paint. Above all, Washington has shown a decided lack of toughness. They stifled Stanford 94-61 as nine-point home favorites in last outing and need to prove they can play well again, being 2-7 ATS this season after a victory.

California is 4-1 SU and ATS vs. Washington, including two wins and covers at Bank of America Arena.

Purdue at Northwestern (+6.5,132) 5:30E BTN

Basketball prognosticators knew Purdue (14-2, 8-8 ATS) was going to be a very good team coming into the season. The Boilermakers had experience, continuity of playing together for a couple of years and a strong work ethic. What has transformed Purdue into a national power is the elementary aspects of basketball. They force almost eight more turnovers than they commit, they are much better rebounding team than a season ago and they make roughly 75 percent of free throw attempts to ice away games. They have hit a bump the last couple of contests, not playing 40 minutes of basketball in either game. Purdue will have to find themselves quickly since they are 3-8 ATS on the road.

Northwestern’s (12-4, 8-4 ATS) confounding start landed them in the Top 25 briefly; however conference play has brought about new challenges. The Wildcats despite severe injuries had thrived because of the play of mighty mite, 5’8 Michael “Juice” Thompson. He ignited the offense, scoring and setting up teammates. Big Ten opponents had taken notice and have squeezed “Juice” not allowing him to roam as freely. Conference clubs have also been prepared for the Wildcats various zone defenses. Northwestern lost to Wisconsin at home in last encounter and is 5-9 ATS after a defeat.

The Cats have played well against Purdue with 10-4 ATS record.

Sunday, Jan. 17

Connecticut at Michigan ( ) 1:30E CBS

The Huskies (11-5, 5-8-1 ATS) knew coming into the season, despite plenty of size, they were not going to have the same scoring power with the departure of Jeff Adrien and Hasheem Thabeet. Their absence has expanded the roles of Stanley Robinson and Gavin Edwards and both have taken the challenge and become more complete players. What coach Jim Calhoun is seeking is Ater Majok and Charles Okwandu to be more valuable contributors, instead of players just using up minutes. With its size, UConn is 11-3 ATS when they grab 10 or more rebounds than their opponents.

Michigan (9-7, 5-7 ATS) knows what to expect every night from Manny Harris, being one of the best players in the Big Ten. And coach John Beilein knows what to look for from DeShawn Sims, his most versatile performer, who creates matchup issues for opponents. What has been lacking most of the season is that dependable third option. Laval Lucas-Perry, Stu Douglass or Zack Novak have all had their moments, nevertheless, sometimes they have failed all together also. With Connecticut’s decided size edge in this contest, the Wolverines cannot afford to make less than 30 percent of three point attempts, since they are 3-16 ATS when they do.

Wake Forest at Duke ( ) 8:00E FSN

The Demon Deacons (12-3, 6-6 ATS)have one major weakness – outside shooting. Against teams they can overwhelm with their physical skills, the issue still persists, however is less noticeable. Playing against better quality competition, particularly those in the ACC that know their conundrum, well that is how the losses start accumulating, especially on the road. Freshman forward Ari Stewart can score from the outside, yet he is still learning about shot selection. Wake Forest can play different styles and is 13-4 ATS against offensive teams like the Blue Devils scoring 77 or more points a contest.

Duke (14-2, 10-5 ATS) has shown to likely be the best team in the ACC, but they are for from infallible. Kyle Singler had a few off games of late and Nolan Smith will disappear at various points in games. As opposed to the last few seasons, the Blue Devils have room for improvement. Guard Jon Scheyer has been a rock at the point and the Plumlee brothers, Miles and Mason, are improving rapidly providing more help up front. Duke 34-18 ATS on home court when they attempt 63 to 69 shots and 8-4 ATS off a SU win this season.

Duke is 20-5 and 18-7 ATS vs. Wake Forest, including 11-0 SU and ATS since 1997.

Orange Bowl Preview

This year’s Orange Bowl is so absurdly easy as what to watch for it barely needs to be acknowledged, however when scenarios like this occur, often the some other side of the story ends up what really determines the winner. Georgia Tech’s option offense is a sight to behold, ranking 11th in total offense, at 307 yards per game against teams that only surrendered 156 yards per contest on the ground.

Iowa was a sturdy defensive squad all season, allowing just 15.5 points per game and was ranked 11th in total defense in the country. On the year the Hawkeyes conceded just 3.5 yards per carry and fundamentally squeezed the life out of most offenses, never allowing more than 28 points in single game.

This is where many people has chosen to focus their attention and unquestionably it will be important, especially if it one-sided for their team. Nevertheless, when the Iowa has the ball and how Georgia Tech defends them will be equally as important.

Ricky Stanzi is expected back at quarterback for Iowa, after missing last two and half contests with injury. If you Goggled the term - winning ugly- you would get a Hawkeyes team picture. Stanzi threw just one more touchdown than interception on the season (15 vs. 14), but always seemed to play his best in the final 30 minutes. The Hawkeyes have underrated pass catchers like TE Tony Moeaki and Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, who led team in receptions. If Stanzi can get started, Iowa could move to 6-0 ATS after allowing 17 or fewer points like they did against Minnesota in 12-0 whitewashing.

Georgia Tech’s defense was strictly average against teams that didn’t run the ball well like Iowa; they for the most part held them in check. With the Hawkeyes running backs healed and ready to go, it’s impossible to overlook the fact the Yellow Jackets were gouged for 662 yards on the ground their last two games. Iowa might well come out with short passing attack, to loosen up the linebackers from Georgia Tech, before plowing ahead with the running game to test their mettle. Coach Paul Johnson’s club is 15-6 ATS on a grass field over the last two seasons.

All right, I can tell by the look on your face you are not buying this thought process. You are betting this game on one factor either way. Iowa holds Georgia Tech to 200 or less yards rushing and pulls the upset or the Yellow Jackets wear down the Hawkeyes with the constant thumping of the option and makes them jelly-legged and armed like they’ve been shoveling snow for four hours straight.

Iowa (10-2, 7-4 ATS) has been a sound bowl team, going 7-3 ATS in its last 10 and underdogs are 8-2 ATS in those games. The Hawkeyes are on the receiving end of 5.5-points at Bookmaker.com and have to attack the option. Defensive ends on either side have to work up-field to disrupt, but not getting out of position. The linebackers have to play assignment football and not run to QB Josh Nesbitt, otherwise any of the other speedy backs will go the distance. Iowa is 21-5 ATS versus rushing teams averaging 200 or more rushing yards a game.

Coach Johnson’s team lost twice and when they did they gained 205 and 95 yards on the ground, far below their average. Kirk Ferentz’s team really limited the opponent’s passing in holding them to 60 yards below their average at 165 YPG. Georgia Tech’s passing game always has the element of surprise, which catches opposing teams off guard. Coach Johnson teams are 10-1 ATS vs. defensive teams who give up 17 or less points.

Both schools were superb away from home, with Iowa 4-1 and 5-0 ATS and the Rambling Wreck 6-1 SU and ATS. Underdogs are 5-1 ATS in Orange Bowl’s since 2004.

3DW Line – Georgia Tech by 3

Championship Saturday

Our last post was another 2-1 day and we believe we have the right stuff to make today even better. We’ll start with an 85.3 percent system on the gridiron that is perfect this season. That is followed by a perfect trend in the ACC title game and finally Steve of the Left Coast Connection has it going on and releases his Best Bet today. Good Luck

What I’m thinking today – I’m caught in one of those rare situations where I want to bet one team but I really like the other team. When I say like, I mean I want them to win. This doesn’t happen often for me, but it does occur. I actually like the 11-0 Cincinnati team. I like the way they play, I like their coach and I would like to see them go unbeaten. That aside, I have the suspicion they may have peaked, especially on defense and I believe an angry Pittsburgh team beats them. I’ll be rooting for the Bearcats and don’t want money to take away from my enjoyment of watching the game and pulling me in opposite directions.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Football System-1) PLAY ON Home favorites of 21.5 or more points like Louisiana Tech, who are average offensive team (4.8 to 5.6 yards per play) against a team with a terrible defense (6.2 or higher YPP), in conference games. This system checks in at 29-5 ATS, 85.3 percent, with 3-0 mark this season.

Free Football Trend-2) Georgia Tech is 8-0 ATS versus good defensive teams allowing 310 or fewer yards a game over the last two seasons.

Free Football Pick -3) Steve’s hot streak continues and he is making a big play on Rutgers today.

Longhorns and Yellow Jackets favored

The final two spots for the BCS will be locked up on Saturday night, with the Big 12 and ACC championships. Texas is a solid favorite and is predicted to be in BCS title game with a victory. The ACC game for all the marbles has a different flavor, as both teams are off disappointing losses to non-conference rivals and are in a rematch of earlier game. A double dip to close out Championship Saturday. Lines from Bookmaker.com.

Nebraska vs Texas (-14.5, 47) 8:00E ABC

It wasn’t an easy trek, but Nebraska accomplished one of their goals this season, winning the Big 12 North. The next goal is more challenging aspiration, knocking off Texas for the conference crown. This is the Cornhuskers fifth appearance in the Big 12 championship and the third time they will face Texas. Nebraska (9-3, 7-5 ATS) has to this point stayed with a familiar script, using a conservative offense, a stingy defense and special teams play that consistently wins the field position battle. Only Texas Tech and lucky Colorado has managed to score more than 17 points against the Blackshirts, with Ndamukong Suh, a finalist for the Lombardi Award, leading the assault. The offense needs RB Roy Helu gaining yardage behind the offensive line, giving inaccordant quarterback Zac Lee a chance to complete passes. Nebraska is 25-10 ATS vs. passing teams with a completion percentage of 62 percent or better.

After missing out on BCS title game a year ago, Texas (12-0, 5-6-1 ATS) was expected to come in this season and have Texas-sized chip on their shoulder. One aspect overlooked is every year is divergent. Different players are starters along with backups and attitudes change for individuals still in college. The Longhorns had more than their share of slow starts and always came on to put way opponent in the last 30-45 minutes of game action. Since the close 16-13 victory over Oklahoma, the Texas players have played with greater purpose and man-handled everyone on the schedule. It’s evident the Longhorns are peaking but will face a determined Nebraska club that is has nothing to lose. Texas is 22-5 ATS when they allow 4 to 4.5 total yards per play.

The Texas defense was sliced and diced by Texas A&M last week for 532 yards, but Nebraska lacks that kind of firepower to match those figures. Do expect Lee of the Cornhuskers to throw the ball, especially early, since the Longhorns have allowed 279.3 yards passing in last three contests. Nebraska has covered seven of last 10 against teams with winning records.

Against teams from BCS conferences, Nebraska has scored a whopping 18.3 points per game this season. That means a quick start for focused Mack Brown team has TV viewers heading over to ACC contest. This is attitude game for Longhorns, beat Huskers decidedly and folks start believing they can defeat SEC champion. Let Nebraska hang around playing great defense and people will ask what is wrong with TCU not being in Pasadena for last game of the season. The Horns are 13-4 ATS after allowing 325 or more passing yards.

Favorites in the Big 12 title games are 8-4-1 ATS.

3DW Line – Texas by 15

Clemson vs Georgia Tech (Pick) 8:00E ESPN

It’s a rematch from Sept.10 for the ACC championship. In that contest, Georgia Tech jumped out to a 24-0 lead over Clemson, with RB Anthony Allen scoring on an 82-yard run and Jerrard Tarrant taking a punt back 85 yards. The Tigers weathered the storm and settled in and scored the game’s next 27 points to take the lead. The Yellow Jackets (10-2, 7-4-1 ATS) reestablished their option offense and put together two drives that resulted in field goals, including the winner with under a minute to escape 30-27. Georgia Tech is 5-1 and 3-3 ATS vs. Clemson last six meetings.

Georgia Tech’s option offense had stung opponents for 39 points per game during its eight game winning streak before losing to rival Georgia. One edge they have enjoyed is teams had only one week to prepare for unique offense. Though Clemson will have the same time frame having played South Carolina last week, they’ve had enough time to breakdown tape of their earlier matchup. Coach Paul Johnson, whose 19-6 (15-7 ATS) mark through two seasons is the best in Tech history, has shown his offense can work playing against better competition. The Yellow Jackets are perfect 8-0 ATS versus defensive teams allowing 310 or less yards a game over the last two seasons.

Clemson (8-4, 7-4 ATS) has finally broken thru, winning seven of eight contests and playing like a team which finally exceeded expectations. Coach Dabo Swinney was finally able to sell the upperclassmen on the idea of being accountable for actions. Seniors like C.J. Spiller and Jacoby Ford have been among the leaders that by example both verbally and by actions. One noticeable difference also has been the defense. Clemson’s had numerous players with all-ACC ability, but this group is No. 1 in total defense in the league and 14th nationally. The Tigers are 2-11 ATS when they allow 250 to 300 rushing yards.

Clemson should have learned something from Georgia’s win, pound away at Yellow Jackets front seven. The Tigers have three running backs each with a different style, make it work and score touchdowns. If Clemson doesn’t run effectively and is forced to pass, they drop to 2-8 ATS after scoring less than 20 points in last game.

Interesting to note in common opponents Clemson is 4-0 (3-1 ATS) winning by almost 17 points a game, while Georgia Tech is 3-1 (2-2 ATS) with a winning margin of 4.2 PPG.

3DW Line – Georgia Tech by 1

Conference Championship Games History

The Southeastern Conference was the innovator of the Conference Championship game back in 1992 and when you think about, this has helped propel them to being arguably the best conference in college football year in, year out. The leaders of the SEC knew their customer was a football starved fan and would relish the opportunity for one more game to decide the league’s title. Most years this has provided additional excitement by splitting the conference into two divisions, giving more schools an opportunity to compete in this confrontation.

Alabama and Florida met in the first three games between these schools in this instant classic. In the first game, unbeaten Alabama came in ranked number two in the country and was a solid 10-point favorite over a Florida team that had lost three times, coached by Steve Spurrier, who had just started things rolling at his alma mater. With this being such a new venture, the SEC settled on Legion Field in Birmingham, the Crimson Tide’s home away from home. This guaranteed a sellout and the game was played there the first two years.

Alabama had allowed only eight points a game with its stifling defense, but a cocksure Spurrier had his team well prepared and with nothing to lose, took the opening kickoff for a touchdown. The Tide’s defense had trouble all game long with the Gators, allowing 347 yards, after surrendering only a 183 yards per game all year. Alabama hung on to win 28-21 over Florida. This year will be the sixth matchup between these teams in this contest, with Florida 3-2 SU and ATS. The Gators are 3-1 ATS when favored.

This will be the fifth appearance for each Nebraska and Texas in the Big 12 championship with the Cornhuskers 3-1 ATS and the Longhorns just the opposite at 1-3 ATS. This will be their third get-together in this battle.

Do you think Marshall ever wonders about leaving the MAC? They played in the first six championship games (won five) and haven’t been heard from since, moving on to Conference USA. Central Michigan looks to move into second place for MAC titles (seeking third) behind the Thundering Herd with a win this season, since this contest began in 1997.

Bettors receive five additional possibilities to consider that have often had their share of surprises. Here’s a look at the history of each of the conference championships.

SEC

The SEC will be playing it 18th championship game and has a rematch from last season, with Alabama facing the top-ranked team in the country in Florida. In the previous seventeen years, four teams, Florida, Alabama, Tennessee or LSU have been one of the participants in this contest. The favorite has won 14 of the 17 games; however it has been a battle most of the time as 8-8-1 against the spread record shows. For many college football fans, especially in the South, this game would do just fine to settle the national championship in 2009. However, it is just another step closer for the winner, moving to BCS title game and this team will likely be a favorite against whomever they play. Since 1996, the total has gone on runs of two or more and the UNDER has been the play the last two seasons.

Past SEC Championship Game Results
Date - Favorite (Line, Total), Underdog: SU / ATS / O-U
12/6/08 –FLORIDA (-10, 54) 31, ALABAMA 20 –FAV/FAV/UNDER
12/1/07 - LSU (-7, 58) 21, TENNESSEE 14 - FAV / Push / UNDER
12/2/06 - FLORIDA (-3, 44.5) 38, ARKANSAS 28 - FAV / FAV / OVER
12/3/05 - GEORGIA 34, LSU (-2, 42) 14 - DOG / DOG / OVER
12/4/04 - AUBURN (-14.5, 47.5) 38, TENNESSEE 28 - FAV / DOG / OVER
12/6/03 - LSU (-3, 42) 34, GEORGIA 13 - FAV / FAV / OVER
12/7/02 - GEORGIA (-9, 47) 30, ARKANSAS 3 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/8/01 - LSU 31, TENNESSEE (-7, 54) 20 - DOG / DOG / UNDER
12/2/00 - FLORIDA (-10, 51.5) 28, AUBURN 6 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/4/99 - ALABAMA 34, FLORIDA (-7, 51) 7 - DOG / DOG / UNDER
12/5/98 - TENNESSEE (-15, 48) 24, MISSISSIPPI ST 14 - FAV / DOG / UNDER
12/6/97 - TENNESSEE (-7.5, 58.5) 30, AUBURN 29 - FAV / DOG / OVER
12/7/96 - FLORIDA (-14, 48.5) 45, ALABAMA 30 - FAV / FAV / OVER
12/2/95 - FLORIDA (-24, 56) 34, ARKANSAS 3 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/3/94 - FLORIDA (-7, 46.5) 24, ALABAMA 23 - FAV / DOG / OVER
12/4/93 - FLORIDA (-4.5, 43.5) 28, ALABAMA 13 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/5/92 - ALABAMA (-10, 37) 28, FLORIDA 21 - FAV / DOG / OVER

Big 12

The Big 12 joined the festivities in 1996 and exploded onto the scene with a memorable contest. Nebraska had its usual powerhouse and was huge 20.5-point favorites over Texas, who had lost four regular season games. Longhorns coach John Mackovic emptied the playbook, utilizing trick plays and fourth down attempts and upset the heavily favored Cornhuskers 37-27. This gave the Big 12 affair instant credibility. Two years later, an unbeaten Kansas State squad cruised into the title game as 17.5-point favorites and was upset 36-33 by Texas A&M. Five seasons later, the Wildcats were able to pull the same trick on Oklahoma. The Sooners were unbeatable and two touchdown favorites over Bill Snyder’s K-State club. The Wildcats came out throwing deep and caught an overconfident Oklahoma team off-guard and buried Bob Stoops Sooners 35-7. Those represent three of the four losses by the favored team in 13 tries. The favorite is 8-4-1 ATS in the history of the game. Since 2002, this contest has been a series of blowouts, with the average winning margin being 31.7, with the closest three years ago, as Oklahoma won 21-7 over Nebraska. Eight of the 13 contests played have covered the spread by 10 or more points. The South Division has been by far the better of the two Big 12 divisions and that is shown by 5-0 SU and ATS dominance the last five years in this encounter. The UNDER has been the play five of the last seven contests.

Past Big 12 Championship Game Results

Date - Favorite (Line, Total), Underdog: SU / ATS / O-U
12/6/08 – OKLAHOMA (-16.5, 78.5) 62, MISSOURI 21 - FAV / FAV / OVER
12/1/07 – OKLAHOMA (-3, 64.5) 38, MISSOURI 17 - FAV /FAV / UNDER
12/2/06 - OKLAHOMA (-3.5, 44.5) 21, NEBRASKA 7 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/3/05 - TEXAS (-25, 60.5) 70, COLORADO 3 - FAV / FAV / OVER
12/4/04 - OKLAHOMA (-23.5, 54.5) 42, COLORADO 3 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/6/03 - KANSAS ST 35, OKLAHOMA (-14, 53) 7 - DOG / DOG / UNDER
12/7/02 - OKLAHOMA (-7, 51) 29, COLORADO 7 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/1/01 - COLORADO 39, TEXAS (-7, 54.5) 37 - DOG / DOG / OVER
12/2/00 - OKLAHOMA (-3, 53) 27, KANSAS ST 24 - FAV / Push / UNDER
12/4/99 - NEBRASKA (-8, 52.5) 22, TEXAS 6 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/5/98 - TEXAS A&M 36, KANSAS ST (-17.5, 46) 33 - DOG / DOG / OVER
12/6/97 - NEBRASKA (-19, 53) 54, TEXAS A&M 15 - FAV / FAV / OVER
12/7/96 - TEXAS 37, NEBRASKA (-20.5, 56) 27 - DOG / DOG / OVER

MAC

In 1997, the MAC joined the fun and has been the most entertaining of the conference championships. Eight of the 12 games played have been decided by eight points or less in highly competitive conflicts. This will be Central Michigan’s third appearance in the last four years in this game. This sets up another meeting with Ohio U., whom they whipped in 2006. Being the underdog is the better position in this contest as they are 7-4 ATS, with the favorite only 6-5 SU in lined MAC matchups for the crown. Following the same line of thinking, the team with the poorer record heading into the game is 7-2-1 ATS (Ohio U, this season). The dog has covered a double digit spread in all four instances.

Past MAC Championship Game Results
Date - Favorite (Line, Total), Underdog: SU / ATS / O-U
12/5/08 – BUFFALO 42, BALL STATE (-15, 62.5) 24 - DOG / DOG / OVER
12/1/07 – C MICHIGAN (-3, 64) 35, MIAMI OHIO 10 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
11/30/06 - C MICHIGAN (-3, 46.5) 31, OHIO U 10 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/1/05 - AKRON 31, N ILLINOIS (-13, 53.5) 30 - DOG / DOG / OVER
12/2/04 - TOLEDO 35, MIAMI OHIO (-1.5, 64) 27 - DOG / DOG / UNDER
12/4/03 - MIAMI OHIO (-6.5, 57) 49, BOWLING GREEN 27 - FAV / FAV / OVER
12/7/02 - MARSHALL (-2.5, 62.5) 49, TOLEDO 45 - FAV / FAV / OVER
11/30/01 - TOLEDO 41, MARSHALL (-2.5, 63.5) 36 - DOG / DOG / OVER
12/2/00 - MARSHALL 18, W MICHIGAN (-6.5, 54.5) 14 - DOG / DOG / UNDER
12/3/99 - MARSHALL (-20, 56.5) 34, W MICHIGAN 30 - FAV / DOG / OVER
12/4/98 - MARSHALL (-12, 48) 23, TOLEDO 17 - FAV / DOG / UNDER
12/5/97 - TOLEDO 14, MARSHALL 34 - N/A / N/A / N/A

ACC

The ACC has engaged in the fray in the last four years and it does not elicit much support on a local or national level. The ACC has had severe attendance problems; not being able to bring many of the locals to the contests played in Jacksonville or Tampa and would probably be better suited in Charlotte. The ACC championship has seen the favored teams lose outright three of four times, opening up more conjecture for this season. This is the second straight year the game features a rematch, with Georgia Tech having stopped Clemson 30-27 as five-point home favorites. After several years of not living up to expectations, the Tigers have finally made it to the title tilt. This is the Yellow Jackets second appearance in ACC finale and rest assured it will be a much higher scoring affair then their last visit.

Past ACC Championship Game Results
Date - Favorite (Line, Total), Underdog: SU / ATS / O-U
12/6/08 – VIRGINIA TECH 30, BOSTON COLLEGE (-1, 38) 12 - DOG / DOG / OVER
12/1/07 – VIRGINIA TECH (-4, 48) 30, BOSTON COLLEGE 16 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/2/06 - WAKE FOREST 9, GEORGIA TECH (-1, 40) 6 - DOG / DOG / UNDER
12/3/05 - FLORIDA ST 27, VIRGINIA TECH (-14.5, 45) 22 - DOG / DOG / OVER

Conference USA

Conference USA does not have the football tradition to play such a game at a neutral site and instead has one of the teams participating as the host. The home team has won and covered the first three conflicts, until East Carolina pulled the big surprise. The Pirates are back to defend their title, this time at home. Though the sampling is small, it is not a surprise this defensively-challenged conference is the only one that has not had a total under 50. This leads to negative angles for both teams in this battle. Houston is 2-9 ATS in road games when they allow 28 or more points, while East Carolina is 0-6 ATS when they concede 28 or more points.

In looking at the history of all games played on the home field of one team, the host is 7-3 SU, covering the spread on five occasions. The Over has been the play in six of the 10 affairs.

Past Conference USA Championship Game Results
Date - Favorite (Line, Total), Underdog: SU / ATS / O-U
12/6/08 – EAST CAROLINA 27, TULSA (-12, 66) 24- DOG /DOG / UNDER
12/1/07 - CENTRAL FLORIDA (-7.5, 73) 44, TULSA 25 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/1/06 - HOUSTON (-5.5, 53.5) 34, SOUTHERN MISS 20 - FAV / FAV / OVER
12/3/05 - TULSA (-2.5, 57) 44, C FLORIDA 27 - FAV / FAV / OVER

Rivalry Games for Wagering Appetites

It’s the last big weekend of college football already, where did the time go? Among the more intriguing matchups is Oklahoma State and Oklahoma, with Cowboys trying to make Sooners a .500 club. Florida wants to prove they are still the top team in the country and in the Sunshine State. Georgia and Georgia Tech has a lot of history and Yellow Jackets want to keeping winning, playing for ACC title next. The way it’s been portrayed, no matter the outcome, a certain South Bend football coach might be fired during the game and told to find his own transportation back home. Lines courtesy of Bookmaker.com.


Oklahoma State (+7.5, 49) at Oklahoma 12:30E FSN

All of the preseason discussion about Oklahoma State centered around last year’s fabulous offense that averaged over 40 points per game and had their three stars returning. As it turns out, Oklahoma State (9-2, 6-4-1 ATS) comes into the annual battle with Oklahoma with a good defensive club. Other then surrendering 45 points to Houston and 41 to Texas, only Texas A&M and Colorado have been able to cross the 24-point barrier against the Cowboys D. Among the leaders is cornerback Perrish Cox, who leads the nation in passes defended. Though hardly dominant, the defensive line has maintained steady pressure on opposing signal callers all year. The Cowboys are 8-3-1 ATS in road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

It’s hard to imagine a better five loss team talent-wise over the last 20 years than Oklahoma (6-5, 4-6-1 ATS). The Sooners resume doesn’t look as fancy as previous year’s, however not many top programs could overcome the losses the Sooners have faced. Coach Bob Stoops has resisted temptation to let the situation overwhelm the squad, instead asking those replacements to play their best and believing healthy players have to raise their level of play to help compensate. With QB Landry Jones receiving so much more experience than anticipated, the Sooners are playing towards the future as well and sophomore WR Ryan Broyles is looking like a star in the making. The Sooners are 9-3 ATS of a SU loss.

The “Bedlam Game” battle still has Oklahoma leading all-time with 79-16-7 and the home team is 8-2-1 ATS in this rivalry. The Cowboys will look to improve on 6-13-1 ATS November road record.

3DWLine – Oklahoma by 10.5

Florida State (+24.5, 56) at Florida 3:30E CBS

For well over a decade, this was one of the most anticipated games of the season, with an array of future NFL players and blinding speed from each team. With the arrival of Urban Meyer and the decline in talent in Tallahassee, this has become a one-sided series. The Gators have won five in a row and three of the last four by scores of 27, 32, and 30 respectively. Sadly, at least for Florida State fans, this showdown has become nothing more than tuneup for the Gators (11-0, 5-5 ATS) before SEC title game. The Florida defense has been this team’s bell-cow even if the fawning continues over Tim Tebow. They turn off the opponent’s running game like a spigot, rush the passer like a video game at faster speed and defend the pass like they are a receiver’s shadow. Florida is 9-1 ATS off a non-conference game in the regular season.

As retiring defense coordinator Mickey Andrews said after Wake Forest upset, “If we don’t make mistakes, we’re a pretty good football team.” Football can be that simple and Florida State (6-5, 3-8 ATS) knows it. The issue all year has been lack of discipline in carrying out assignments. Be it defensive linemen needing to secure a corner or an offensive tackle grabbing opposing player for holding penalty 30 yards away from the ball. This Florida team doesn’t have the look of the three previous national champions and if the Seminoles can play mistake free for three quarters, who knows what can happen in last 15 minutes. Florida State is 10-4-2 ATS as an underdog, but 8-21-1 against the spread off a SU victory.

Check the spread, the SU winner in this Sunshine State showdown is 25-2-1 ATS.

3DWLine – Florida by 23.5

Georgia (+7.5, 57) at Georgia Tech 8:00E ABC/GP

Conference championship contests certainly put a different twist on rivalry games if they are held the week prior. For the second time in four years, Georgia Tech (10-1, 7-3 ATS) has advanced to ACC title tilt and you have to wonder about mindset for this matchup. In the big picture, earning a league championship and BCS berth is far more important than defeating a in-state rival, yet fans have to live with one another should their team lose. Georgia Tech players have been conditioned to want to take down the bigger state school, leaving a bit of an emotional quandary. The Yellow Jackets are 1-9 ATS at home after scoring 35 or more points.

The Bulldogs are also in quandary, how to you stop the Georgia Tech option offense? Since losing at Miami, the Yellow Jackets have scored 39 points per game and are second in the country in rushing offense. The Georgia (6-5, 3-7 ATS) defense has been anything but memorable in 2009 and will have to find ways to slow the Jackets down, while playing mistake-free on offense. Signal caller Joe Cox has played with more confidence in last few outings and running back Caleb King has found more room to maneuver. Coach Mark Richt’s team can go full out and has revenge angle having lost last year 45-42 as touchdown favorites. The Bulldogs have had plenty of bite with 20-6 ATS record on the road in non-conference games over the last 17 years.

This Peach State confrontation is more old-school with the visitor 9-2 against the spread, which includes Georgia 5-0 ATS at Bobby Dodd Stadium.

3DWLine – Georgia Tech by 13

Notre Dame (+10, 63) at Stanford 8:00E ABC/GP

If the NCAA had a football tournament (can’t we pretend at least), one team nobody would want to face is Stanford. The Cardinal (7-4 SU & ATS) is an offensive juggernaut right now and has given no indication anyone will stop them. What makes Stanford so incredibly difficult to defend is balance. Running back Toby Gerhart is the most physical runner in the Pac-10, maybe in the country and quarterback Andrew Luck is efficient passer with ample time to throw. Pull out all the preseason publications you can find and good luck trying to find the Stanford offensive ranked among the elite. However, ask the previous 11 teams which have played the Cardinal what was the best offensive line they faced, well the answer is clear. Coach Jim Harbaugh’s team is 10-1 ATS at home the last two years. (Does Harbaugh look to run up the score like he did against USC)

Charley Weis is a large man and the shadow he is casting over the Notre Dame (6-5, 2-8-1 ATS) football program is a 1000 times larger. Since the Navy upset, the story isn’t about the football team, it’s about Weis and if he will come back for 2010 or not as the Fighting Irish coach. For a team with incredible strengths and equally persistent weaknesses, the last thing they need is a loss of focus which has been inevitable since Middies loss. Be it not for QB Jimmy Clausen and receiver Golden Tate, Golden Domers would have been in outrage back in early October. Defensive coordinator John Tenuta is known from his blitzing schemes every stop along the way; however it hasn’t worked in South Bend, lacking the players. The Irish are 1-6 ATS after their last home game.

Stanford is 3-11 and 4-10 ATS vs Notre Dame since 1993.

3DW Line – Stanford by 7.5

Here are other rivalry games of interest.

Clemson at South Carolina (+3.5, 44) 12:00E ESPN

The Clemson Tigers are playing for their first ACC title since 1991 next week, but before that, they would not mind sticking it to Palmetto state rival South Carolina. The Tigers finally exceeded expectations in winning the Atlantic Division and have six game winning streak for the first time in three years. The Tigers are 6-2 ATS the last eight years in this encounter and have been an underdog once in 20 years. South Carolina is sliding again due to rugged closing slate and needs this victory for a winning campaign. The Gamecocks are 6-15 ATS in last game and 6-11 ATS the last two games since 2001.

Mississippi at Mississippi State (+8, 47.5) 12:21E SEC Network/GP

The Egg Bowl is among the bitterest state rivalries and Mississippi State coach Dan Mullen will get his first taste playing in Starkville. MSU has played a number of the better SEC teams to the finish and it would be a great conclusion to upset Ole Miss this season. The Bulldogs are 6-2 ATS in final home game. After beating LSU last week 25-23, Mississippi looks to close the season on a high note. The Rebels have better utilized the talents of running back Dexter McCluster the last several weeks and is 7-1 ATS in November games over the last three seasons. The home team is 9-1 and 6-3-1 ATS the last 10 years.

Virginia Tech at Virginia (+15.5, 42) 3:30E ESPN

The Hokies have won nine of last 10 in this rivalry, with seven covers. It’s a different feeling for Virginia Tech in this contest, as usually a bigger game has been in waiting, be it in the ACC or the Big East. Virginia Tech is 9-1 ATS in weeks 10 through 13 over the last three years. It looks like the end of the line for coach Al Groh, with Virginia on five-game losing streak and another losing season. The Cavaliers anemic offense has been the largest contributor, scoring more than 20 points three times and they are 10-22 ATS when they rush for 50 to 100 yards. Virginia Tech is 16-8 ATS vs. Virginia the last 24 years.

Missouri vs. Kansas (+3.5, 56) 3:30E ABC/GP

The longest running series west of the Mississippi River continues in Kansas City for a third straight year. Both teams had disappointment with how the season evolved, yet one squad will have satisfaction in deflating their biggest rival. In this Border War, Missouri’s passing offense is 18-6 ATS when they gain 7 to 7.5 net passing yards per attempt. Kansas on the other hand is 0-6 SU and ATS since win over Iowa State in Big 12 opener. The Jayhawks failures bring up the past and they are 18-39 ATS record in weeks 10 through 13. This is the 118th meeting and the series is 54-54-9, with the dog barking at 10-4 ATS.

Utah at BYU (+7.5, 53) 5:00E CBSC

This is the 85th version of the Holy War and though no conference title is on the line, the intensity will be as strong as ever. BYU is after their fourth consecutive 10-win season and definitely will be in revenge mode after 48-24 demolition at Utah last season. The Cougars are only 4-11 ATS in MWC matchups the last two years. Like BYU, the Utes have lost just twice this season and are 17-6 ATS vs. excellent passing teams averaging 275 or more passing yards a game. This is almost always a competitive affair, with 10 of last 12 decided by seven or less points. The underdog is 12-4 ATS since 1993.

UCLA at USC (-13, 47) 10:00E FSN

Much like the Dodgers and Angels of Los Angeles, UCLA and USC failed to deliver in clutch situations, leaving fans wanting for more. The Bruins lack of running game has limited the options in the passing game, with opponents blitzing heavily in obvious throwing situations. UCLA is 6-12 ATS on the road after a Pac-10 home game. This is unfamiliar territory for USC with three losses; however closing with a trio of wins gives the Trojans an eighth straight 10-win or better season. Coming off the bye week, Pete Carroll’s club is 19-7 ATS with rest and the home team is 19-8 ATS for this city rivalry.

College Football's Best Rivalries Betting Info

The fabric of college football is wrapped in its traditions and many of its colorful rivalries that make college football such a great sport. This upcoming week, many of the more historic matchups will take place yet again this holiday weekend starting Thanksgiving night.

On Thursday night, No. 3 Texas and Texas A&M will hookup for their annual battle. These archrivals have always had a “big brother, little brother” relationship, with the Aggies trying to outdo Texas. Years ago these two schools set up a program that awarded points to every athletic competition, be it men’s or women’s sports, which were totaled at the end of the year and a winner was announced. Texas has won this competition every year. The home team is 5-6, but 8-2-1 against the spread. Texas is still in the BCS hunt and will be looking to chew up the Aggies like a leftover turkey leg.

On Friday afternoon, there is no game that has loyalties running deeper than Alabama and Auburn. This is a regionalized affair that is important to every Alabamian. In a state that has had a century-old love affair with college football, this one is about 60 minutes of football determining bragging rights in Alabama for the next 364 days. The losers have only "next year" to cling to because the scores of other games during the season really do not matter.

The game is known as the Iron Bowl because its birthplace is in Birmingham, which was built around huge iron ore deposits in the Alabama hill country. What is truly unusual about this historic rivalry is it was not played for 41 years from 1907-1948. The universities had reached an impasse in 1907, with unfair officiating being one of the charges, and neither side could come to an agreement, thus no game was played in that time period. The 1950’s saw Auburn’s Shug Jordan dominate the Crimson Tide, until Paul “Bear” Bryant returned and eventually the series turned to Alabama’s favor. Bryant teams went on to crush the Tigers for years before losing in his final game in the series. Shortly thereafter, “The Bear” announced his retirement and two months later he passed away. The names like Joe Namath, Ken Stabler, Bo Jackson and Shaun Alexander are all part of the lore along with the infamous kicker Van Kiffen, who made what became known as “The Kick” in 1985. Kiffen drilled a 52-yard field goal with just seconds left to give Alabama a 25-23 triumph.

No.2 Alabama can’t afford a misstep if it expects to keep national championship hopes alive. The Crimson Tide lead the all-time series 39-33-1 and will face a vengeful Auburn squad who was embarrassed 36-0 last season, the most lop-sided margin in the series since 1962. This will be Tigers coach Gene Chizik’s first real involvement in this rivalry, rest assured he’s heard about its importance since his hiring. Auburn can shatter most of the dreams of Alabama if they could win for the seventh time (4-3 ATS) in the last eight years. The home team however is a dismal 5-9 against the spread.

The action really picks up on Saturday with the Egg Bowl rivalry, as Mississippi heads over to Starkville to renew unpleasantries with the Bulldogs. This match-up is best described as a “family feud” as read in William Barner’s book on the history of the rivalry. Back in the old days, fans would break out into fights before, during and after the games. In 1926, the fighting got so ugly after the first Ole Miss victory in 13 years that officials came up with the concept of the Golden Egg Trophy, awarded to the winner in a formal ceremony each year. It was supposed to cut down on such ugliness, instead the fans just fought outside the stadium as opposed to in it. The Rebels have carried the action most of the last decade, being an underdog just once 2001. Ole Miss has won five of last seven and is 7-2-1 ATS in last 10 contests.

A regionalized rivalry known as the “Border War” between Kansas and Missouri will once again have great meaning to the combatants. This will be the third consecutive year they will meet in neutral Kansas City (19 of the first 20 games were played in K.C.). Surprisingly this is the second oldest rivalry in D-1 (FBS), with the winner earning The Indian War Drum. The underdog is 9-5 ATS the last 14 years, which includes the Jayhawks 40-37 upset as 15-point dogs last year. The all-time series record is a dead heat after all these years at 54-54, with 9 ties.

The “Bedlam Game” will be played in Norman this season, when the Oklahoma State Cowboys arrive. It’s hard to almost call this a rivalry since Oklahoma leads with an all-time record of 79-16-7. Billionaire Boone Pickens is doing his best to change all that, upgrading the facilities in Stillwater to be better than any in the Big 12 and among the best in the country. Unfortunately, he can’t buy the Cowboys many victories since his increased involvement in his alma mater. The home team is 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 fracases.

The battle of Palmetto State is a heated rivalry with origins back to the 1880’s, concerning historic tensions regarding their respective charters. The two institutions are separated by just over 125 miles, holding the longest uninterrupted series in the South and the third longest uninterrupted series overall, having been played every year since 1909. The meeting has a strange ritual dating back to early 1900’s and is carried on today. Without going into all the long details, South Carolina and Clemson University bring a made-up symbol about the other and burns it on Friday night before the big encounter. The 2004 game is the most recent contest etched in the minds of the schools and people across the country, when both teams started brawling at the conclusion of Clemson’s 29-7 victory. Each team had won a total of six games that year and was technically bowl eligible. However, both schools elected to forfeit their postseason opportunity because of the shameful nature of the fight. This series typifies as much as any the frenzied excitement, with the visitor 15-5 ATS in the last 20 meetings. How Clemson approaches this battle will be intriguing, with more important game against Georgia Tech next for ACC title.

Georgia and Georgia Tech can best be explained by book Bill Cromartie penned – Clean, Good Old Fashion Hate. These teams can’t even agree on the number of games they have competed on the gridiron. Georgia Tech’s records show two more then Georgia’s, as the Bulldogs do not acknowledge the games played in 1943-44, since many of their players were in World War II. Georgia has a 20-game edge in the series after the Yellow Jackets thrilling 45-42 upset last year in Athens. That was coach Mark Richt’s first loss (7-1, 5-1-1 ATS) in this encounter, raising the visitors record to 9-2 ATS since 1998.

Always of significance is the BYU and Utah conflict, known as the “Holy War”. The term Holy War, rather than denoting a war between religions, refers to the intensity of the competitors. Both teams have 9-2 record and the fierceness of these battles in Provo and Salt Lake City is legendary in these parts. These conflicts are annually very close. Only twice in the last 12 years has a game been decided by more than a touchdown. The underdog is a top quality 12-4 ATS.

Florida State and Florida is all about protecting the home turf as demonstrated by 15-6 ATS record in which some of the best athletes in college football have played in this battle. Florida has had the better of it in recent years with five consecutive wins and like most years, the outcome has national implications.

Halloween Adventure

Nothing spooky or scary about today’s picks. The Top Trend is in the Big 12 and involves a team that doesn’t play well against good defensive teams. The Best System out there is 88.5 percent and on an unlikely team. The Free Play is from the ACC, from a LCC member who is 12-3 in CFB the last two weeks. Good Luck

NEW Feature: New Poll Question at the bottom of page.

What I thought yesterday – I knew I could count on Bill Stewart of West Virginia to lose last night. He’s becoming one of my favorite play against coaches in college football.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Football System-1) PLAY ON A home team off an upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog, with a winning percentage of between 40-49 percent on the season. Teams like San Diego State are 23-3 ATS in this exact spot.

Free Football Trend-2) The Baylor Bears are 1-11 ATS in home games versus excellent defensive teams allowing 4.25 or fewer yards per play.

Free Football Pick -3) Bill of the Left Coast Connection has Georgia Tech running to a spread cover.

Paul Buck Guaranteed CFB Winner Saturday! Tired of losing, join in on the winning parade.

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Sports Bettor makes Virginia Tech call

The calendar shows Virginia Tech on Thursday night, this can mean only one thing, time to make mucho dinero. (Sorry for Bob Griese reference) If you are a serious sports bettor like me, you know the Hokies are more golden than shakin’ down friends and family for old gold jewelry to profit from. (Frank) Beamer’s boys are 14-3 against the evil empire the last 11 years.

It’s understandable a few of you might be a little skitterish about laying 16.5 (at Bookmaker.com) on Virginia Tech, after watching them get plowed under for 309 yards by Georgia Tech and North Carolina stepping on Florida state for a cool 238 last week, not to worry friends, the ol Red-man will not steer you wrong.

How can I be so sure? Comparing the Yellow Jackets option offense to North Carolina’s running game is like comparing to Erin Andrews to Chastity Bono. GT is second in the country running the ball and the Tar Heels are 86th even after crossing the 200-yard barrier.

North Carolina players still have to be lower than my latest 401K update, blowing 24-6 third quarter lead near the Dean Dome last Thursday. The Tar Heels actually do have decent defensive talent and have held all teams not named Georgia Tech and Florida State to 17 points or less. I have to question how much they are going to want to play before a geeked Virginia Tech crowd, especially if the offense plays to norm, meaning 115th in FBS land. I like fishing as much as the next guy, but I’m not taking the bait UNC is for real, besides they are 1-7 ATS after gaining 200 or more yards rushing the pigskin.

Frank Beamer has had a few extra days to coach up his downtrodden team since being stung by Yellow Jackets. Defensive coordinator Bud Foster probably led the Hokies in tackles in practice since their last contest, showing his defensive guys it’s OK to tackle somebody REALLY HARD in practice and in games. Anything less than max effort from the defense would be a bigger shock than Andre Agassi's revelation. The Beamer’s are 12-6 ATS off a bye week and 7-2 against oddsmakers if opponent has positive record.

Quarterback Tyrod Taylor doesn’t throw the ball like Jimmy Clausen, nonetheless is improving passer and has been sharp after so-so passing games. What I like about Beamer, he’ll having his team find out right away what kind mood and effort North Carolina is likely to provide, running the ball right at them, throwing deep balls and trying to scare the devil out of Heels chucker T.J. Yates, with continual blitzes. Reports out of Chapel Hill have Yates being chased out of Franklin Street establishments for making holes in the wall on errant dart throws, despite no oncoming pass rushers.

With North Carolina one of the six worst offenses in the country and already 0-5 (2-3 ATS) against Virginia Tech since they’ve joined the Atlantic Coast Conference five years ago, take the Hokies to start a fun-filled Halloween weekend 34-10 and cover convincingly.

Red Wydley wrote this ACC Thursday matchup.

Saturday's Big Wagering Options

With Joe Paterno a college football legend, the former Brooklyn native knows his team has taken on three tomato cans and will face a squad with pulse in Big Ten opener against Iowa. The ACC has pair of arresting games, with Miami now a favorite at Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech looking to knock North Carolina out of the unbeaten ranks. California has USC next, but can’t overlook perfidious Oregon first. Arkansas has given Alabama problems in the past, can they again with quality offense? Speaking of offense, the most fun game by far looks like Texas Tech at Houston, where the score is already 17-13 and they haven’t kicked off yet. Lines courtesy of Bookmaker.com.

North Carolina (+3, 45.5) at Georgia Tech Raycom 12:00E

The Tar Heels returned nine starters on defense and this has been the strength of the team early in the 2009 campaign. They will now be tested by Georgia Tech’s powerful option offense in Atlanta. Coach Butch Davis’ defense held Connecticut offense to 196 total yards and did a good job in limiting East Carolina to 13 first downs and 17 points last week. What’s encouraging is the defense has been a team concept, with 11 different players having made tackles for a loss. They are tied for 10th in the country in points allowed at 11 per game. The offense still needs work as quarterback T.J. Yates is searching for the right chemistry with receivers. North Carolina is 8-4 ATS as single digit ACC underdog.

Georgia Tech has an extra two days to prepare after losing at Miami 33-17 on ESPN last Thursday. The Yellow Jackets success or failure will in part fall upon the right arm of junior Josh Nesbitt. Far from a polished passer, Nesbitt can throw the pigskin accurately when he sticks with his mechanics. When he deviates, he can stink up the joint like he did against Clemson, going thru 1 for 11 spell.

Teams with big physical defenses that have enough quickness on the defensive front, are starting to have success against triple option attacks. This means Nesbit has to continue to be a clutch performer and come up big when called upon as he has in the past with 5-2 and 5-1 ATS record in games decided by four or less points.

Georgia Tech has won three of last five but is 0-5 ATS since 2004 versus the Tar Heels. North Carolina in fact is 11-4 against the spread in last 15 ACC affairs, with the underdog a nicely profitable 8-4 ATS. Watch the oddsmakers line for movement on this contest, with the Heels 8-4 ATS catching three or less points. The Yellow Jackets escaped 27-25 as nine-point home favorite in 2007 and they are 21-9 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3.

3DWLine – Pick

Arkansas (+17.5, 58) at Alabama CBS 3:30E

Coach Bobby Petrino has a more veteran team this season and has less to worry about from the mental standpoint after his squad lost 52-41 to Georgia at home, before getting ready to play Alabama. Nothing would satisfy Petrino’s ego more than to start knocking off giants like the Crimson Tide, so he could update his resume for the next job he’s seeking on his Linkedin or Facebook pages. His quarterback is Ryan Mallet, whose displayed NFL arm and ability to find different receivers in Razorbacks offense. Mallet will be tested all game long by Alabama defense that can make QB’s make poor choices. The Hogs head to Tuscaloosa 10-4 ATS as away dogs.

Coach Nick Saban’s defense is like the boss in the office meeting who quietly takes everything in and once he’s seen or heard enough takes control. The first few Crimson Tide opponents have had some success moving the ball in the first part of the game, but like a water faucet, are turned off after showing what they expect to do. Field general Greg McElroy has shown growth weekly, delivering strikes to receivers and improving complete view of the field. McElroy strength as a thrower is the deep ball and he’ll have numerous opportunities against Razorbacks secondary. Despite a bushel full of athletes, Bama special teams are anything but and the squad is 7-16-1 ATS as SEC favorites of 10 or more points.

This has been one of those SEC series. The home team is 5-10 ATS and has failed to cover the last four engagements and with Mallet’s big arm and talented pass catchers, Arkansas has at least a puncher’s chance to cover the spread. The straight up winner is 15-3 ATS all-time when these two universities get together, but has been trending the other way at 1-3 ATS the last four years.

Alabama has won a school record 17 straight SEC openers (8-9 ATS), while the Razorbacks are 4-12 ATS in first conference road trip. Remember also, the Tide is 0-7 ATS at home after allowing 100 or less rushing yards in three straight games and 17-5 UNDER at their place after three or more consecutive wins.

3DW Line – Alabama by 15

California (-5.5, 55.5) at Oregon ABC 3:30E

California is off harder than expected trip to the Land of 10,000 Lakes and feels prepared to open Pac-10 play with two treacherous weeks ahead. The Bears offense is in good hands when potential All-American Jahvid Best is carrying the ball. Chances are with all the talent on the field for Cal QB Kevin Riley, he doesn’t have to be great all the time; however he might be called upon to be so in enemy territory this week. Though the Bears defense can really get after the passer, they can be passed on (ranked 62nd), especially between the hash marks away from corner Syd’Quan Thompson. Cal is unsightly 0-5 ATS in the second of back to back road tilts.

Each game played places Oregon further away from LeGarrette Blount incident, nonetheless doesn’t mask obvious shortcomings. The Ducks receivers have been more likely to catch the H1N1 virus than Jeremiah Masoli passes and the junior quarterback has thrown his fair share of passes this season that have wobbled like, well, a duck. After being bottled up by Boise State, the running game has averaged 205 yards per game the last two weeks. The defense hasn’t impressed anyone (82nd in yards allowed), though linebacker Casey Mathews is emerging as playmaker and senior cornerback Walter Thurmond III is an excellent pass defender in a league stuffed with quality defensive backs. In reviewing history, Oregon is 18-4 ATS in first conference clash.

Four of the last six confrontations between these squads have been decided by seven points or less. California is 5-0 ATS playing a Pac-10 foe off a non-conference contest, with average winning margin of 38.6 points per game. Oregon is 21-14 ATS taking on ranked teams the last decade and 12-2 ATS after playing a game at home. Before losing 31-24 in Eugene in 2007, The Ducks had rattled off six straight wins over the Bears with six covers.

3DW Line – California by 5.5

Miami (-3, 47.5) at Virginia Tech ABC 3:30E

It’s sad really, from 1992 until 2003, a Miami and Virginia Tech battle was the essence of Big East football. The games weren’t always close, but they spoke about what made the conference as it grew in stature. These two rivals still meet in ACC action, but the importance has been somewhat diminished.

Coach Randy Shannon clearly did not look at Miami’s schedule before taking the job in 2006, since only a person with only short term job ambitions would want to play an early schedule that includes Florida State, Georgia Tech, the Hokies and Oklahoma in its first four games. Miami’s new wide-open offense has unleashed QB Jacory Harris, who has embraced the idea of throwing the ball to a variety of receivers. The defense is rounding into formidable unit and is allowing just 3.0 yards per carry. The Hurricanes are 7-2 ATS in last nine road excursions.

This is Virginia Tech’s third consecutive contest in Blacksburg and they are jacked after knocking off Nebraska in 16-15 thriller this past week, in a game they never should have won. Beamer-ball is often solely associated with special teams, yet what makes Frank Beamer an elite coach is finding offensive linemen that enjoy opening up chasms and shifty running backs who can fly thru them. Add in relentless defenders that run to the ball and the real recipe for success is realized playing Beamer-ball. The Hokies are 34-9 and 29-14 ATS since joining the Athletic Coast Conference.

Virginia Tech is 9-5 and 11-3 ATS versus Miami since 1995, including 5-1 against the spread record at Lane Stadium. The wagering public is both not impressed with the Hokies and very impressed with the Hurricanes, taking the ACC matchup from a Pick, to Miami by three.

The Hokies are only 5-5 ATS in the third of three or more consecutive home games and are just 7-11-1 ATS with home field advantage the last four seasons. Expect the Canes defense to stack the box like the Huskers did and force QB Tyrod Taylor to move the chains. Look for coach Shannon to use RB’s Graig Cooper and Javarris James to go after the Hokies 108th ranked run defense (200.3 YPG). The Hurricanes will have to crank up the offense, scoring more than 17 points once in last six contests.

3DW Line – Virginia Tech by 10

Iowa (+9.5, 40.5) at Penn State ABC 8:00E

Iowa has drawn very few patsies in Big Ten openers since the new millennium began and this will be no different traveling to State College, PA. The Hawkeyes have been 4-0 twice in the previous six years and a third time would bring significant attention to Kirk Ferentz’s football program, beating highly ranked Penn State. Iowa football is about the basics, blocking and tackling. The offensive line has started to come together and pair of freshmen running backs (Brandon Wegher and Adam Robinson) has folks in Iowa City excited. If QB Ricky Stanzi continues to read defenses proficiently and finds the hot receiver, the Iowa defense will hold up their end of the deal, ranked 14th in points surrendered at 12 per game. The Hawkeyes are 8-3 ATS as road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points.

At this juncture, it’s not easy to gauge just how good Penn State is or isn’t. Most top level teams would plow through Akron, Syracuse and Temple at home, just like the Nittany Lions have. The Penn State players’ hearts should be racing, as Iowa handed them their only regular season loss a year ago, 24-23 as seven-point road favorites. Senior Daryll Clark has been accurate thrower, as the offensive line has been better at pass-blocking compared to run blocking in September to this point. With the competition in the lightweight category, what we know about the defense is they can stop the run and prevent big plays. Penn State is 8-3 ATS when favored by 17 or fewer points at home in the last four years.

Joe Paterno’s defense has held three crummy opponents to 6.7 points per game, however, Iowa’s not exactly an offense juggernaut ranked 68th in total offense. The Hawkeyes are 4-14 ATS versus excellent rushing defenses allowing 2.75 or less rushing yards per carry. Iowa however has held the upper hand with 7-3 and 8-2 ATS mark over Joe Pa’s troops in the last 15 years. The underdog has bitten as much as it could chew with 8-2 ATS record, including five outright upsets. And get this, Penn State is bizarro-world 0-14 ATS vs. defensive teams who give up 12 or less points a game.

StatFox Power Line – Penn State 7.5

Texas Tech (+1, 74.5) at Houston ESPN2 9:15E

It’s back to work for Houston after a bye week, enjoying the adulation of knocking of then No.5 Oklahoma State on their home field 45-35. They will try and knock off another Big 12 team, Texas Tech, this time at home. Being 3-0 with two wins over Big 12 teams will have Houston and Conference USA being mentioned as BCS bowl-crasher this season. Coach Kevin Sumlin has taken what Art Briles (now at Baylor) started and improved it. The Cougars are ranked for the first time in 18 years and there is a lot of excitement about triggerman Case Keenum. The junior quarterback makes exceptional decisions in finding speedy and quick receivers. With all the praise, coach Sumlin’s toughest job might be refocusing his team; not playing Texas Tech. Houston is 15-25 ATS in non-conference play since 2000.

Texas Tech comes off the Texas revenge game and played better than expected in 34-24 defeat. QB Taylor Potts is the next signal caller in the Mike Leach assembly line that gets rid of the ball quickly and makes good reads. Potts has security blanket in wide receiver in Lyle Leong, who has been his best friend since elementary school and the two have played football together all along the way. Red Raiders coaches like what they got from running back Tre’ Newton against the Longhorns, rushing for 88 yards. With the playing surface less an issue today for the sports bettor than before, Texas Tech is a curious 10-22 SU and ATS in regular season games on natural grass.

As Mississippi proved Thursday night, playing with expectations can be stifling experience and this is what Houston has tonight. With win over Okie State, Houston is 10-5 ATS versus BCS schools since 2001, but is 0-9 ATS after two or more consecutive straight up wins over the last three seasons. Coach Leach is one of the best bounce back coaches in the game off a loss; with his team 25-12 ATS in next effort. The total is vexing figure with Texas Tech 27-9 OVER off a cover and the Cougars 8-2 UNDER after a bye week.

3DW Line – Texas Tech by 1

Betting ACC football looks like coin flip

Let’s start with the facts, the ACC generously speaking, is lousy. Not in all sports, as North Carolina has done a great job holding up the league’s reputation in college basketball and the conference sent two teams to the College World Series in baseball this past summer. No, were just talking football.

In 2004, the Atlantic Coast Conference university presidents saw the money the SEC and the Big 12 were making holding a conference championship game in football and the interest and buzz it created nationally. Not afraid to throw around a little cash, along with promises, the ACC raided the Big East and took their three strongest football programs (all for the sake of higher learning of course) and rebuilt a the league into a dozen teams. Miami and Virginia Tech joined in 2004 and Boston College followed a year later. A new “super” conference was born, right?

Well not exactly. Along the way a few stumbling blocks occurred. While the Big East additions were supposed to enhance competition, they weren’t supposed to dominate. Of the four ACC title games played so far, five representatives have been from the Big East, lead by Virginia Tech three times. In fairness, things do move a little slower in the South. When Florida State joined the ACC, they won their first 29 conference contests and 47 of 48.

Because of the success the Mountain West Conference has enjoyed, speculation has been written and discussed about adding them to the BCS (oh that will happen) or possibly dropping a weaker league and adding the MWC to the mix. (Not likely)

If for example that were to occur how does the ACC standup?

Since reshuffling the deck in 2004-05, the ACC is 134-96, 58.2 percent straight up against D-1 or FBS teams in non-conference games. That’s just below average compared to the other five BCS conferences and the Mountain West. For the sports bettor, the ACC isn’t an acceptable wager with a record of 109-119-2 against the spread in those encounters. That’s 52.2 percent on the losing side of wagers, not including adding the vig.

The news is even worse when you consider over the last three years and the beginning of this season these 12 teams win only 44 percent of the time against the aforementioned other conferences.

What is the problem with the ACC, it’s actually two-fold. First, the school presidents fully expected adding three new teams and a little magic dust and suddenly it’s the SEC. The ACC is a basketball conference. Most schools are willing to pay decent money to coach players in short pants, but haven’t shown that same willingness on the gridiron.

This leads to the quality of coaches in charge of these programs. Bobby Bowden is not the same as he was 10 to 20 years ago. Frank Beamer is still elite head coach, however after, not much Hall of Fame material. Tom O’Brien, Jim Grobe, Butch Davis and Paul Johnson all fit in the “good” category with Johnson the most likely to reach greater heights. Veteran coaches like Al Groh and David Cutcliffe will get the most out of what they can recruit by academic standards at Virginia and Duke and Ralph Freidgen wins enough to keep the alumni off his back. At this point Randy Shannon, Frank Spaziani and Dabo Swinney all have incomplete grades and none were costly hires.

With the ACC about to really delve into league play what should the sports bettor expect in balanced league lacking true star power?

The game of football has evolved to where so much importance is placed on the quarterback. The two best veteran quarterbacks are Riley Skinner at Wake Forest and Thaddeus Lewis at Duke, however neither will be making a living at that position once their eligibility is completed. The league’s future might be in its youthful signal callers, with the likes of Jacory Harris at Miami, Russell Wilson at N.C. State and Christian Ponder at Florida State. Each has the skill to be complete player and should only get better with proper work ethic and talent around them. Tyrod Taylor and Josh Nesbitt are both exciting players who are mostly one-dimensional players. The truth is the league reflects the quarterback play at this time, rather generic and predicated on youth without the infrastructure to protect on off days.

In breaking down conference play over the last five seasons it’s about as expected. Virginia Tech is 34-9 and 29-14 ATS when ACC title games are counted. Florida State is 24-17 and 17-24 ATS, being overvalued in many cases and Georgia Tech is 25-17, but only 20-22 ATS with no distinguishing attributes.

The Wolfpack at N.C. State is 17-23 and .500 against the spread. We’ll have to watch if they can continue 4-0 ATS home underdog mark from last season. Boston College is 21-14 and 17-18 ATS and actually has a better SU record in there four years in the ACC compared to the previous last four years in the supposed weaker Big East.

The next three teams are long time members stuck in neutral. North Carolina is 18-22 and 20-20 ATS and Maryland is very similar at 18-22 SU & ATS. Clemson is 23-18 and 19-22 ATS and is a much better home dog than home favorite in ACC action.

Wake Forest is 20-21 SU & ATS and is dastardly 3-8 ATS as away favorite the last decade. Miami is 22-20 and 18-24 ATS in league play, sporting 4-11 ATS record in home games. Virginia is positive 21-19 and 22-18 ATS, being a solid wager at home and wobbly road team. The Dukies are ghastly 2-38 (its true), however is frequently overlooked as doormat of the ACC and is 19-21 against the oddsmakers.

It would be a pleasure to suggest a certain style of wagering in the ACC, like playing all underdogs, however the facts don’t support it. Instead, like the many roads that go thru the Carolina’s, follow the yellow signs with the wiggly picture. SLOW – Proceed with Caution.