NBA ROUND TWO BETTING EDGES

With the top seeds having flexed their muscle in the opening round of the NBA playoffs, it’s one to Round Two where a series upset or two is always in the realm of possibility.

Here are four solid moneymaking angles from my powerful database that have withstood the test of time throughout 2nd round playoff action. All results are ATS and since 1991, unless noted otherwise. Enjoy.

Three down, but not out
Teams that take it on the chin three times in a row do not go down easily in Round Two.

Unlike most other rounds, teams playing off three consecutive losses that are not favored (pick or dog) prove to be resilient this round, going 8-6 SU and 10-4 ATS.

Better yet, if they showed some spark of like in the last game – scoring 82 or more points – these teams tend to take a punch almost as well as Jake LaMotta, going 7-3 SU and 9-1 ATS in this role.

Thou shall not lay points to a No. 1 seed
One golden rule in this round applies to top seeds, namely: never lay points against No.1 seeds.

That’s because inferior teams are just 15-25-1 ATS when playing points into No. 1 seeds since 1996. Worse, if the No. 1 seed is off a SU and ATS loss, lower seeded favorites are just 3-10 ATS.
And if the lower seeded favorite beat the top seed and covered the spread by nine or more points, they dip to 1-10 ATS.

Role reversals
You may not be comfortable changing roles in a relationship, but NBA teams in this round of the playoffs do.

That’s confirmed by the fact that Round Two dogs off a straight-up loss as a favorite are 29-20 ATS.

When changing roles off back-to-back SU and ATS losses, these puppies bark to the tune of 11-4 ATS, including 10-1 ATS if they own a win percentage of les than .680 on the season.

Running on empty
Teams that scored well below their average (77 or less points) in their previous game tend to fuel up the next game in this round.

That’s evident by a sparkling 20-10-1 ATS mark by Round Two favorites that tallied 77 or fewer points in their last game.

Put these favorites up against .625 or greater opposition and they top off at 15-3 ATS, including 14-1 when laying four or more points.

There you have it. Four reliable betting theories you can hang your hat on throughout the 2nd round of this year’s NBA playoffs. Use your head and play accordingly.

By Marc Lawrence of Playbook.com

Are Tired NBA clubs Good or Bad Bet?

The professional basketball season is long arduous task for the players. The 82-game season has a number of nights where the travel is too tough, the sleep too short and the coach’s preaching too boring. For as long as people have been giving advice on how to bet and win in the NBA, one of the most (over) used terms is “a tired team”. What constitutes a tired team?

There are many different ways to mentally and physically tucker out a NBA squad, one of the cruelest is four games in five days. This used to be far more common than it is today, though several teams will still end up with one on the docket. Another is eight or nine games in a two week period. The games themselves are exhausting enough, but there is the morning walk-thru’s or shoot-arounds, possibly a quick film session, where the assistant coaches found a previously unknown weakness to exploit. This all takes a toll.

The most common way teams are wore down these days in three games in four days, with last two back to back. To date there has been 222 such occurrences in the NBA, an average of about seven per team. The league’s schedule-maker has a tricky task, trying to juggle dates around car shows, rodeo’s and empowerment seminars. In researching the third game in four days this campaign, maybe it’s just a coincidence (not really) but the teams fitting this criteria play the last game on the road better than 74 percent of the time (166 road – 56 home).

Now that we’ve established what a supposed tired team should look like and what they are up against, let’s move on. In reading thru various forums for years, a common description those that sell picks will use is the aforementioned - tired team. In the three weeks before the All-Star break, on 59 occasions, coming from 27 different cappers, some form of the word “tired” was used to describe a NBA team and in EVERY situation, these were Play Against teams. This had the feel of a handy way to describe a condition, but as old as a dudeen.

Though I have no axe to grind with those that make a full or part-time living selling sports wagering information, I became curious enough to want to find out if what they are saying is actually true both SU and against the spread.

The research of all 30 teams was broken down this way, playing three games in four days, the last two consecutively.

*Off a SU win
*Off a SU loss
*As a home favorite
*As a home underdog
*As a road favorite
*As a road underdog

The initial aspect was to find out how these NBA teams fit compared to normal circumstances. The so-called “tired teams” are 91-131 SU, 40.9 percent. For the season, all road teams play at 40.1 percent clip and visiting clubs matching this system are 54-112 SU, a much lower 32.5 percent SU record, which in theory is quite logical, thank you Mr. Spock.

This in turn leads to all home teams winning 59.1 percent of the time in 2009-10, yet clubs at home and reportedly tired are 31-25 SU, down to 55.3 percent winning percentage, which correlates to conventional reasoning. The next question is what about against the numbers the oddsmakers put out?

This is where facts and reality meet.

Let’s review areas already mentioned and see how the numbers shake out. Road underdogs are 36-84 SU, winning just 30 percent of the time, seemingly a poor wager. Yet when sifting thru all the losing numbers, these dogs are not nearly ugly as they appear with 58-58-4 ATS record. While 50 percent is not the breakeven point of 52.4 percent, these numbers do not add up to making many, if any at all spread wagers on road underdogs.

Supposedly worn out road favorites are 25-19 SU, a healthy 56.8 percent, yet are only a slightly better than average bet at 23-20-1 ATS. The most important way to look at this angle is if those providing sports wagering information say road favorites are a bad bet playing a trio of games in about 96 hours, the last two back to back, well, it’s just not true, at least this season.

Home teams don’t receive a whole of play from the league in this case and while the favorite and underdog roles are in sharp contrast straight up, they are pedestrian in nature against those setting the lines.

Home favorites are sparkling 27-12 SU, yet dull 20-19 ATS. Picked up the phone and called a long-time friend named Tony who has booked, been on both sides of the counter in Nevada and lives a quieter life in Laughlin, while still making daily trips to casinos to place his bets. I asked Tony why these home favorites don’t often cover, despite solid winning records.

“Typically these are overvalued home teams who are actually tired. They would go thru the motions for 40 minutes and when it is time to win the game, they turn it up a notch and pull through. This is very true against inferior competition.”

This led to another similar question, coming from the opposite direction. Home underdogs are 4-11 SU in this same variable of games and days, yet are 7-8 ATS, why would this be?

“Douglas my friend, very simple, your numbers match up with league averages of home underdogs, which at my last count was running about 50-50 against the number (118-115 ATS). Let’s face it, there is a good reason why teams are home dogs, they’re not very good and teams playing them will not take them very seriously and cover as often as not, making this horse crap bet, if you know what I mean.”

The last two areas of concern were how these NBA teams performed the night after a SU victory or defeat. In each instance, the team was generally unable to muster the energy, though as noted, most of the matchups were away from home.

Teams off a win are 46-53 SU; yet don’t provide an inkling of opportunity to cash on them with 49-48-2 against the spread record.

When a NBA squad off a loss is faced with this circumstance, the numbers would have you believing this a wonderful opportunity to build up the bankroll. Their record is a mere 45-78, 36.5 percent SU. This looks like a sure-fire way to profit, however, instead of this being a negative opportunity to play against a team; it’s actually a positive one! Despite their mediocre record, these teams are 63-57-3 ATS, suggesting the oddsmaker is shading them for public consumption as a worn out club.

After all the digging, not one truly useful angle except this. Teams playing three games in four days, with the last two back to back and the third game is a pick, the road team is 0-4 SU and ATS. Needless to say, the sample is hardly worth the wager.

The real lesson is this, the next time you read about a play against team in the aforementioned situation, you will already know it is not a winning play. The only thing “tired” is using the word to make an unsubstantiated point.

This Friday is SWEET!

Technically we were 3-0 last night, but we’ll gladly take the self-imposed 2-0, raising recent record to 14-3. We’ll begin with a Super System that is 84.4 percent in the NBA. We’ll follow that up with underdog play as Top Trend in Bracket Buster matchup. Kyle's Best Bet is up below. Good Luck

What I thought today – Today is a really good day. After starting the college basketball season 36-54-2 and down -60.3 units, I knew something has to change dramatically. I reevaluated my position, what I was doing, trying to understand the mistakes I was making and at least get close to .500 and just take my lumps.

Since Jan. 24, I’m pleased to report I’m 61-34-4 and in the black at 97-88-6 and more importantly +5.7 units for the season after 3-0 Thursday. I’ve carefully considered what led to this turnaround and will be sharing it in the next week or so. I fully understand that I could go right back to mediocrity, nevertheless feel a real sense of accomplishment in turning this year completely around.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Play On home teams like Portland when the line is +3 to -3, after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after a game where both teams scored 90 points or less. This is awfully good NBA system at 27-5 ATS.

Free Basketball Trend - 2) William & Mary (I wonder what their last name is) is 11-2 ATS as an underdog this season.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Kyle is passing on CBB tonight, but does like New Orleans in the NBA as best best. I'm breaking my own rule. Normally I chase off anyone who losses here, but in Kyle's case, because he's been so freakin' hot in CBB, he'll be back on Saturday no matter what. If the Hornets win, than everything is really cool.

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NBA AT THE BREAK… Teams and Trends to Ponder

Some say the NBA is simply an acronym for Nothing But Aggravation. Others contend it’s merely a Nice Bankroll Additive. Whatever your take, there is no better time than the present – with Pro Basketball taking a time out for the All-Star break - to examine the condition of each team in the league at this stage of the season. From the surprise teams to the disappointments, the run to the playoffs is about to take off.

What we’ve seen thus far is some teams have excelled against foes that do not own a winning record, such as the Hawks (18-8 ATS) and the Kings (17-9-1 ATS), while others have struggled in games against lousy competition, such as the Mavericks (9-17 ATS), the Nets (8-16-1 ATS) and the Hornets (8-18 ATS).

On the flip, a handful of teams have risen to the occasion when squaring off against quality, winning opposition – teams like the Cavaliers (21-4 SU and 16-7-2 ATS), the Hornets 18-9 ATS) and the Thunder (19-9 ATS). The Wizards are biggest money burner in games against winning teams (7-14 ATS), season to date.

Here’s a quick look at some of the GOOD, BAD, and UGLY team trends on every team and how they have fared SU (Straight Up) and ATS (Against The Spread) this season in games played through the All-Star break. In addition, I also break down performance records for each team in games versus .500 or less and greater than .500 opponents this campaign. Do your homework now, and enjoy the rest of the season…

ATLANTA
Good: 12-2 ATS vs. .375 or less opp
Bad: 1-4 ATS as dog less than five points
Ugly: 0-3 ATS with no rest vs. division
Vs. .500 or less: 19-7 SU, 18-8 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 15-10 SU, 14-11 ATS

BOSTON
Good: 6-1-1 ATS pick or favorite 4 or less points
Bad: 1-7 ATS favorites 12 or more points
Ugly: 1-11 ATS home off loss
Vs. .500 or less: 23-6 SU, 10-19 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 9-12 SU, 9-11-1 ATS

CHICAGO
Good: 5-0-1 ATS vs. division opp off loss
Bad: 3-9 ATS away off SU and ATS loss
Ugly: 1-5 ATS off SU favorite loss
Vs. .500 or less: 13-12 SU, 10-13-2 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 12-14 SU, 14-12 ATS

CLEVELAND
Good: 8-0 SU and ATS vs. .750 or greater opp
Bad: 1-4 ATS home with no rest
Ugly: 0-3 SU and ATS vs. opp with 3+ days rest
Vs. .500 or less: 20-6 SU, 10-16 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 21-4 SU, 16-7-2 ATS

DALLAS
Good: 7-1 ATS away off loss
Bad: 3-16 ATS home vs. non-division opp
Ugly: 0-4 ATS off BB SU and ATS losses
Vs. .500 or less: 18-8 SU, 9-17 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 14-12 SU, 12-14 ATS

DENVER
Good: 7-0-1 ATS home vs opp off double-digit win
Bad: 1-6 ATS off SU dog win
Ugly: 0-4 ATS away vs. opp off SU dog win
Vs. .500 or less: 11-18 SU, 11-16-2 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 6-16 SU, 10-11-1 ATS

DETROIT
Good: 4-1-1 ATS vs. .250 or less opp
Bad: 4-14-2 ATS off ATS loss 4 or more points
Ugly: 0-5-1 ATS fav off SU and ATS loss
Vs. .500 or less: 11-18 SU, 11-16-2 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 6-16 SU, 10-11-1 ATS

GOLDEN STATE
Good: 7-1 ATS dog vs. unrested opp
Bad: 2-6 SU and ATS fav less 6 points
Ugly: 1-5 ATS off loss vs. opp of SU dog win
Vs. .500 or less: 10-15, 12-12-1 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 4-22 SU, 16-10 ATS

HOUSTON
Good: 3-0 ATS vs. opp with 3 more days rest
Bad: 2-9 ATS fav with revenge
Ugly: 0-5 ATS vs. non div opp off SU dog win
Vs. .500 or less: 18-8, 13-13 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 9-16 SU, 11-14 ATS

INDIANA
Good: 5-0 ATS double-digit dog
Bad: 1-5 ATS off loss vs div opp
Ugly: 1-7 ATS dog 3 less points
Vs. .500 or less: 14-16 SU, 13-17 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 4-18 SU, 9-13 ATS

LA CLIPPERS
Good: 5-1-1 ATS fav vs Eastern Conference
Bad: 1-6 ATS dog vs opp off double-digit win
Ugly: 0-7 ATS with rest vs. con opp off BB SU and ATS losses
Vs. .500 or less: 14-15 SU, 13-15-1 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 7-16 SU, 11-12 ATS

LA LAKERS
Good: 6-1 ATS away vs. opp off double-digit loss
Bad: 2-7-1 ATS fav 5 less points
Ugly: 1-6 ATS av vs opp off BB SU and ATS wins
Vs. .500 or less: 23-3 SU, 14-12 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 18-10 SU, 11-15-2 ATS

MEMPHIS
Good: 12-1 ATS off win vs. opp of loss
Bad: 3-8 ATS away off loss
Ugly: 0-5 ATS off loss vs opp off SU and ATS win
Vs. .500 or less: 12-7 SU, 11-7-1 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 14-18 SU, 16-16 ATS

MIAMI
Good: 10-2 ATS vs. less .400 opp
Bad: 1-5 ATS vs. opp off SU dog win
Ugly: 0-3 SU and ATS off 3 wins
Vs. .500 or less: 16-10 SU, 14-12 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 10-17 SU, 12-14-1 ATS

MILWAUKEE
Good: 7-1 ATS no rest vs unrested opp
Bad: 1-5 ATS off SU dog win vs. opp off win
Ugly: 0-3 ATS off 3-0 SU and ATS
Vs. .500 or less: 19-11 SU, 19-11 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 5-16 SU, 12-9 ATS

MINNESOTA
Good: 9-0 ATS dog less 4 points
Bad: 4-11 ATS off BB losses vs opp off loss
Ugly: 0-5 ATS vs unrested con opp
Vs. .500 or less: 8-20 SU, 15-13 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 5-20 SU, 13-12 ATS

NEW JERSEY
Good: 4-0 ATS double-digit div dog
Bad: 12-27-2 ATS vs. non div opp
Ugly: 0-3 SU and ATS fav
Vs. .500 or less: 4-21 SU, 8-16-1 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 0-27 SU, 11-15-1 ATS

NEW ORLEANS
Good: 10-2 ATS dog more 7 points
Bad: 2-10 ATS fav off win
Ugly: 0-9 ATS vs. less .300 opp
Vs. .500 or less: 15-11 SU, 8-18 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 13-14 SU, 18-9 ATS

NEW YORK
Good: 8-1 ATS off loss 14 more points
Bad: 1-5 ATS off double-digit win
Ugly: 1-6 ATS away with no rest
Vs. .500 or less: 14-18 SU, 14-17-1 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 5-14 SU, 9-10 ATS

OKLAHOMA CITY
Good: 14-1 ATS off SU and ATS loss
Bad: 2-6 ATS vs unrested opp
Ugly: 1-6 ATS off double-digit ATS win vs opp off BB wins
Vs. .500 or less: 16-7 SU, 13-10 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 14-14 SU, 19-9 ATS

ORLANDO
Good: 8-0 ATS vs. unrested opp off win
Bad: 1-5 ATS vs opp off BB SU and ATS losses
Ugly: 1-7 ATS home off SU and ATS win
Vs. .500 or less: 22-7 SU, 15-12-2 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 14-11 SU, 9-13-3 ATS

PHILADELPHIA
Good: 5-0 ATS dog more 10 points
Bad: 7-18 ATS home
Ugly: 1-8 ATS home dog
Vs. .500 or less: 13-17 SU, 12-18 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 7-15 SU, 11-11 ATS

PHOENIX
Good: 4-0 ATS away vs opp off BB SU and ATS losses
Bad: 2-7 ATS off win 18 more points
Ugly: 0-5-1 ATS with revenge vs. unrested opp
Vs. .500 or less: 17-9 SU, 13-13 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 14-13 SU, 14-12-1 ATS

PORTLAND
Good: 5-0 ATS no rest vs. opp of loss
Bad: 2-6-1 ATS off SU and ATS loss vs. opp off SU and ATS win
Ugly: 0-4 ATS off win vs. unrested opp
Vs. .500 or less: 18-9 SU, 14-12-1 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 13-15 SU, 15-12-1 ATS

SACRAMENTO
Good: 8-1 double-digit dog
Bad: 3-9 ATS vs. Eastern Conference opp off win
Ugly: 0-5 ATS away vs. opp off SU favorite loss
Vs. .500 or less: 15-12 SU, 17-9-1 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 3-22 SU, 10-14-1 ATS

SAN ANTONIO
Good: 5-1 ATS off double-digit win vs opp off BB wins
Bad: 2-5 ATS dog 2 more points
Ugly: 1-8 ATS off division
Vs. .500 or less: 20-8 SU, 15-13 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 10-13 SU, 10-13 ATS

TORONTO
Good: 8-2 ATS vs unrested opp
Bad: 3-9 ATS with no rest
Ugly: 1-7 ATS away off loss vs. non div opp
Vs. .500 or less: 21-10 SU, 17-14 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 8-13 SU, 10-11 ATS

UTAH
Good: 9-0 SU and ATS home vs unrested opp
Bad: 2-5 ATS vs. div opp off loss
Ugly: 0-5 ATS fav more 7 points vs div opp off loss
Vs. .500 or less: 17-7 SU, 14-10 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 15-12 SU, 17-8-2 ATS

WASHINGTON
Good: 4-1 ATS off win by less than 4 points
Bad: 1-6 ATS vs. .750 greater opp
Ugly: 1-10 ATS fav more 2 points
Vs. .500 or less: 11-18 SU, 11-15-3 ATS
Vs. winning opp: 6-15 SU, 7-14 ATS

Written by Marc Lawrence of Playbook.com.

Disparity rules between NBA Conferences

For a number of years now the Western Conference has been superior to the East. This is easily shown by the fact Eastern Conference has six teams with winning records (one is one game over .500) and the West has just four teams with losing records among its 15 members.
One aspect this year besides the dominance once again, the wagering aspect comes into play more than one might think. The West holds a 160-122 (56.7) edge in head to head competition against those from the other conference. It would make sense the West would also be grabbing most of the money when these teams meet, however their stranglehold ends up being a little tighter than traditional numbers. The West is 150-126-6 ATS, 54.3 percent, just over two percent off the SU winning percentage.

As to be expected there are winners and losers in each conference, thus let’s take a look at who is profiting and who is not on either side of the Mississippi River.

The two West squads that have taken everyone aback are up and comers Oklahoma City and Memphis. Unquestionably these are two young and talented teams who could change the dynamics of the Western Conference if they can keep their best players while adding more quality to their rosters in the seasons to come. Each has grown this season primarily beating up the East. The Thunder is 16-6 SU and ATS, while the Grizzlies are 9-6 and 10-5 ATS.

Oklahoma City in particular has been impressive in winning by 6.6 points per contest.
The Los Angeles Lakers have enjoyed the most success at 17-3, but most nights are fighting the oddsmakers for their supporters and are a fair 10-8-2 ATS. The other club that plays in the Staples Center is actually a better bet and has shown real signs of improvement despite lacking players they thought they could count on like No. 1 pick Blake Griffin and Kareem Rush, both injured all or most of the season. The Clippers are 11-8 and 12-6-1 ATS.

A number of other teams have winning records, however are not at least to this point an overwhelming wager. Denver has 13-6 (11-8 ATS) record, San Antonio 13-5 (10-8 ATS), Utah 13-6 (11-8 ATS) and Dallas is 14-5 with only 9-10 spread mark.

The biggest disappointments out West have been Houston at 5-9 ATS with six wins and Sacramento at 6-13 SU and ATS when they face teams from at least two zones away. Golden State may be 6-13, but their style of play leaves Eastern teams confounded and the Warriors are 11-7-1 ATS.

Not every East team is horrible versus the West, it just seems that way. Six Eastern teams have winning records against their Western counterparts; however a couple of those are a loss or two from being .500 or less straight up. For those laying down the cash, Atlanta is the best at 12-7 ATS with 13-6 record. The Hawks are where Oklahoma City and Memphis envision themselves in a year or two or possibly sooner, a good team that has young veteran talent which still has an upside.

Cleveland is the best of the bunch at 18-5, handing the Lakers two of their three Eastern defeats. Nonetheless, like L.A., too often, too many points to overcome with 13-10-1 ATS mark. Boston has a representative 10-6 record, but being a public team and injury-plagued are crestfallen 4-11-1 ATS.

The lousy teams in the East are rotten pretty much against whomever they play. Here are their crummy numbers.

Philadelphia 7-14, 9-12 ATS
Washington 4-14, 7-10-1 ATS
Detroit 4-15, 7-12 ATS
Indiana 4-14, 6-12 ATS

You are probably wondering about New Jersey, because they have been so insufferable, thought the Nets deserved special mention at 1-19 and 5-15 ATS. Their Atlantic Division partners New York, are a sleepy 6-11 vs. the West, yet are about even money bet at 9-8 ATS.

In conclusion, when East meets West, the teams in the Central and Eastern Time zones consistently come up short and are poor wagers.

NBA 2nd Half Season Betting Systems

With the College Bowl games now in the rear view mirror and a new Super Bowl champion about to be crowned, our focus shifts to the NBA where teams are now engaged in the 2nd half the season.

With that, let’s check your handicapping prowess as we take a look at a handful of handicapping theories that apply to teams playing from Game 42 out during the regular season in the NBA. All results are ATS (Against The Spread) and are since 1990, prior to the start of the current 2009-10 season…

1. FACT OR FICTION: TEAMS OFF BACK-TO-BACK DOUBLE-DIGIT WINS DOMINATE TEAMS OFF BACK-TO-BACK DOUBLE DIGIT LOSSES.

Fiction. The fact of the matter is these teams are just 52-59-1 ATS, including 23-32-1 ATS at home. At home against .367 or greater opponents they dip to 6-14-1 ATS. Worse, at home with a win percentage of less than .677 they are 1-12-1 ATS when facing a .367 or greater foe.

2. FACT OR FICTION: DOUBLE-DIGIT DOGS OFF SU WIN AS A DOUBLE DIGIT-DOG ARE JUST GETTING STARTED.

Fact. That’s confirmed by the fact that these teams are 32-18 ATS, including 15-6 ATS when facing an opponent off a SU and ATS wins. Better yet, put these guys up against an opponent off a SU and ATS win of six or more points and they zoom to 10-1 ATS.

3. FACT OR FICTION: DOGS OFF A SU LOSS AS DOUBLE-DIGIT FAVORITES BOUNCE BACK BIG THE NEXT GAME VERSUS AN OPPONENT OFF A SU AND ATS LOSS.

Fiction. Quite the opposite, considering the fact that they are 9-17 ATS, including 6-15 ATS away.Home or away, they are virtual no-shows if the opponent lost Su as a favorite in its last game, going 1-11 ATS.

4. FACT OR FICTION: ROAD WHO ARE 0-3 SU AND ATS THEIR LAST 3 GAMES CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WHEN FACING AN OPPONENT THAT IS 3-0 SU AND ATS IN ITS LAST THREE GAMES.

Fiction. The truth of the matter is while struggling these teams bring ‘value’ to the contest as they are 64-51-3 ATS, including 20-10-1 ATS when taking more than 10 points.
Better yet, when taking more than 10 points in same conference games they are an eye-opening 12-1-1 ATS.

5. FACT OR FICTION: TEAMS OFF THREE STRAIGHT-UP WINS IN A ROW AS AN UNDERDOG CONTINUE THEIR WINNING WAYS.

Fact. Momentum goes a long way in the NBA. Teams off three consecutive upset wins in a row are 38-28-1 ATS. Put them up against division foes and they really turn things up, going 17-5 ATS, including 15-2 ATS versus sub .550 opposition.

There you have it. Five Super Systems to follow the 2nd half of this season. Happy hunting.

Article from Marc Lawrence at Playbook.com

The Effect of the Quality of NBA Opponents

When handicapping an NBA game, a common thing to look at is who does the team play next. Is it a good team, a divisional foe, or one that a team can take very lightly as they aren’t very good?

Also, most cappers like to look at a team’s previous schedule. Have they played tough teams or have then been facing cupcakes recently? Is the team off of a game versus one of the elite squads in the league or were they playing a cellar dweller?

Are there any advantages in looking at different situations based upon the quality of the teams as measured by their season winning percentage? Do teams perform better after directly playing a high quality team? Is there a pattern to the results if a squad that has just played a bad team? (Editor's Note- Picture is cheap ploy to have you read)

We are calling a good team as one who is winning 60% or more of their games. A poor team is one who is winning less than 40% of their contests and an average one is winning straight-up below 60% down to 40% of their games.

Currently, there are an equal number of teams playing 60% or better ball as well as playing below 40%, nine in each category. There are 12 “average” teams with a winning percentage below 60% but no lower than 40%.

Let’s start with something very basic and see how two bad teams playing each other do against the spread and against the lined total. I have friends who swear to taking the Over in these situations. The general belief is that bad teams don’t play very good defense and that pairing two such teams means the Over is a money cow. Let’s see if history backs that premise up.

Basic Two Bad Teams Playing

Over the past three seasons, when two bad teams meet, the visiting team covers 54.6% of the time with the game going Over the total at a 53.5% rate. That’s a start, but let’s drill down a bit.
We quickly find a better betting angle to pay attention to by making the home team an underdog. The road team now covers 59.0% of the time with a surprise in the result of the totals as 63.4% of these games go Under the total. If the home team lost their previous game, the Under jumps to 69.4%.

The Over is predominant when the home team is favored to win the game, a 56.7% OU rate. That jumps to 61.9% if both teams are off of losses. However, if the home fave’s opponent is off of a win, the Under raises its head and is a 60% play.

So, while there are some nice situations to play the Over when two bad teams meet each other, you need to know a few more details to avoid making a wager with a big edge against you.

Basic Two Good Teams Playing

Looking at the other end of the spectrum, how do two good teams do matching up against each other? With no qualifiers, the home team covers 56.2% of these games with the Under winning at a 56.4% rate. If they are a home dog, that ATS rate moves up to 59.3% and the Under ticks up to 62.0%. The Under even goes up to a 66.7% mark if the home dog lost their previous game. The best basic angle I found was if you’re a home dog and both of you won your previous game, the home team getting points covered the point spread 63.4% of the time.

In looking at what quality of opponent our team played in their previous game, there was nothing worth noting on the results in our team’s next game. It didn’t matter if they played a bad or good or average team, the ATS and Over/Under results of the next games were all very close to 50%. In order to find some trends that will make us money, we need to add some qualifiers.

Two Good Teams playing and one just played a Good Team

The first qualifier I am going to add is the quality of the previous opponent. Let’s check results depending upon whether the opponents are good, average, or bad teams and add some other qualifiers as we go along.

A trend that happens a number of times the remainder of this season is when you have a good team, 60%+, who just played another good team and their current game is also against a good team. If this game is away, our team is only covering the spread 41% of the time. If the game is at home, you win against the number 55.5% of the time and the game goes Under at a 57.3% rate. That Under improves to a 69.4% winning situation at home if the team is an underdog. If our good team has just played an average or bad team in their game before facing a good team, there are no fairly basic trends that give us an edge.

Two Bad Teams Playing after playing a Good Team

If we switch our team to a bad team who has just played a good team and their current foe is a fellow bad team, we have a couple of advantageous edges to talk about. If the current game is away, our team off of playing a good team has an ATS record over the past three years of 65-41, 61.3%. The sweet spot in this situation is if this team happens to be a favorite in this road game, you will see an ATS improvement to 71.4%.

As for Over/Under winning trends, the Over is happening between 59 to 59.5% of the time if our team is an away dog or if it is listed as a home favorite in their game against their equally bad team. However, if, after playing a good team, our team is an away favorite, the totals results are the opposite with the Under cashing tickets at a 68.0% clip.

Average Team after playing a Bad Team vs. another Bad Team

For average teams, 40-60%, how about playing a bad team and then playing another bad team? It’s not a great day for you if you are on the road and lined as an underdog. In the past, you have covered the number only 32% of the time versus that bad team after previously playing a bad squad.

Opposite type of previous opponents

What would the results be if one team played a bad team previously and their opponent recently faced a good team? Would the team be more rested after playing a lower quality squad, perhaps not having to put out quite the same level of effort or intensity that they would have against a better unit. Would they have “more in the bank” than their opponent who is off of a contest against a good team?

Would the other team after playing a good team not have played as hard knowing they will lose and they are saving it up for the next squad they face. Or, does playing a good team prepare you better when you face an equally bad team in your next game?

Taking a game between two bad teams, our team’s previous game was against a bad team and their opponent has just played a good team. This is very interesting in that the team off of playing the bad team only covered the spread 28.6% of the time if this game was at home.
After playing a poor squad, combined with playing this game at home, our team was not prepared very well for this game very well. The lack of intensity for our team on the defensive side in this game also shows with the Over happening 64.5% of the time. With the other team off of a match against a good team, they apparently are the sharper team, at least for this game.

Playing a bad team can put another team into exhibiting bad habits, especially if they aren’t a good team to begin with. And just the opposite is true when a bad team plays a good one. They have to be at the top of their game to have a shot at winning. Playing at that higher level can carry over to the next game.

SUMMARY

Obviously there is an effect on a team depending upon what type of team they just played even in just the few cases we looked at. Here is a short cheat sheet to help in handicapping the NBA.

Two bad teams playing each other:
Play on the Visitor

Play Over if the home team is favored
Play Under if the home team is a dog

Two good teams playing each other:
Play on the home team, especially if a dog
Play the Under

Good vs. Good after playing a Good:
If home, look at playing Under, especially if dog
If away, play on home team

Bad vs. Bad after playing a Good:
Play on road team, especially if favorite

Avg Team after playing a Bad vs. Bad:
Play against Avg. Team if road dog

Jim Kruger of Vegas Sports Authority wrote this NBA article.