Perspective thoughts

I’ve run out of time before the games are starting tonight to go into great depth about are the best sides and totals from 3Daily Winners, however have had good material about the NBA for today. I’d like to share an experience I had in college basketball wagering this season.

Last night’s trifling loss concluded my CBB season at 183-150, +18 SU units. (I’m dropping pushes) While I’ve had better records on a season, I’ve never been more proud of what I accomplished since on Jan. 23, I was 36-54, a +51 game turnaround.

In addition, I was down over 57 units and ended up officially +46.2 units for the year. Most satisfy. My main point is to keep working hard at whatever you do to be the best you can be. I couldn’t have been in any worse shape, but I rethought what I was doing and changed my approach, if not my methods.

While the world focuses on being No.1 because they believe that’s all that matters, the fact is persevering can be even more satisfying.

What I thought yesterday- What a game last night!

From a coaching perspective, the chess game was really a thing of beauty asboth Coach K and Stevens made a number of tactical moves that were brilliant. I don’t know if you noticed but Butler had a very clear intent to touch/foul Duke after every regular jump shot attempt. Their intent of course was to make the Blue Devils players aware they were going to be right on them and Coach K was pissed near the end of the first half about it.

Midway thru the second half, officials started to pay closer attention and called two fouls and the Bulldogs backed off.

In a world that loves the underdog, I was rooting for Duke. The amount of money I wagered was peanuts and I have not one thing against Butler, but I admire people or business’ that have built something and are able to maintain it at or near the top for long periods. (Legally of course)

If you noticed Coach K was shaking his head in disbelief that his team actually had won the national championship and I’m sure he realized in that moment, this was an improbable collection of players to win a title and it might have been his least talented team in his eight title game appearances.

While unemployment continues to run high and many others fear for their jobs because of potential cuts by employer, what must it be like to be Brad Stevens today? He’ll decide when it time to go, but what a future he’s set for himself.

Spartans vs Bulldogs Final Four Matchup

The first semi-final of the Final Four is the most unusual pairing since No.11 George Mason was matched against No. 3 Florida in 2006. Though we weren’t really certain just how good the Gators truly were until a couple days later, at least they were among the top 12 seeds in that tournament. This year, Michigan State and Butler are a pair of five seeds, which happens to be the lowest matchup of seeds since fifth-seeded Florida faced eighth-seeded North Carolina ten years ago.

Doing it the Izzo way

Michigan State (28-8, 15-20 ATS) is trying to return to national championship game and has had quite a journey. In this tournament alone, the Spartans have wins by 1, 2 and 3 points and “beat down” of Northern Iowa by a whole seven points. Michigan State players do deserve props for making it this far, since it would appear unlikely that any of the other three teams still playing college basketball would be here if they lost their leading scorer like Tom Izzo’s team did in Kalin Lucas.

The Spartans are 19-8 ATS in all neutral court games over the last three seasons and will have to follow the same formula that got them to Indianapolis. Durrell Summers is averaging 22 points in last three contests, scoring from inside and out. Raymar Morgan has more picked his spots, but made a volume of buckets when his team needed it most. Draymond Green is big body that is difficult to maneuver on either side of the floor and is among the reasons Michigan State outrebounds teams by 8.7 per contest. Korie Lucious has stepped his game taking over the point and though he makes the occasional head-shaking turnover, he’s been an exceptional facilitator and has a feel when to take the right shot. The Spartans are 15-6 ATS away from home having won four of their last five games over the last two years.

Bulldogs believe in the “Butler Way”

Cinderella doesn’t get to this dance scrubbing floors, which by why Butler (32-4, 16-20 ATS) is not a fairly tale. The Bulldogs have won 24 consecutive games (13-11 ATS) with a staunch defense, not having surrendered more than 59 points in the tournament and doing so just once in previous 12 encounters. This makes them difficult to beat as a coach that has faced Butler noted.

“They’re the best late-game defensive team I’ve played against, with switching and making all the right decisions. They’re really good in late-game decisions both offensively and defensively. I was really impressed. Everything they do is so solid.”

Butler is up to 7-3 ATS in the NCAA’s and while Brad Stevens looks like Tom Izzo’s unpaid assistant in charge of taping opposing teams games, this dude can coach. He’s put together this smothering help-defense and brings calmness, as you don’t see Butler players wide-eyed when the opponent makes a surge.

Sophomore point guard Ronald Nored said this, “If you beat us, it won’t be because you rattled us.”

Butler will experiment with four guards and Gordon Hayward against the Spartans to see how they adjust. This offense has given the Bulldogs a quickness edge which opens up the lane for different players to take their man off the bounce or run “pick and rolls” or “pick and pops” in isolation sequences.

This is close

DiamondSportsbook.com has Butler as one-point favorites, with total of 126.

Coach Stevens has a motto made for texting-TGHT- which stands for, The Game Honors Toughness. Butler showed their “onions” giving away leads to Syracuse and Kansas State, before bulling the neck and putting each team away in the final minutes. The Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS after a combined score of 125 points or less in consecutive contests and 7-1 against the number when seeded 5th to 8th in the NCAA tournament. They are 8-0 OVER on a neutral court floor when the total is 129.5 or less, however the crowd will be far from neutral with hometown team getting the support from locals.

Michigan State is 29-15 ATS in all their NCAA appearances over the last 13 years and is 8-1 ATS as a neutral court underdog of six points or less or pick and are 25-11 UNDER versus teams who average 33 or less rebounds a game on the season after 15 or more have been played.

The excitement swells until 6:05 Eastern tip, with Final Four squads off two upset victories like Butler 2-8 ATS.

NCAA Tournament Wagering Tally

Just when it seemed impossible for this year’s tournament to get any better we were given the instant classic between Kansas State and Xavier in double overtime, along with Tennessee in two titanic struggles, both coming down to the last shot in the last two rounds. As we move ahead, here is a wagering overview of the tournament to date.

Once the Sweet 16 arrives, Cinderella’s usually finds the clock striking midnight and indeed it did for St. Mary’s, Northern Iowa, Cornell and Washington, losing by an average of 15 points per game. High seeds were not completely immune from being struck down as Syracuse and Ohio State were both laid to rest. Still, favorites and higher seeds were 6-2 and 5-2-1 ATS.

In this round, if a team was favored by 7.5 or more points or four or less, they were 3-0 against the number. Totals were also decidedly one way in the Thursday-Friday matchups with the UNDER an overwhelming 7-1.

The Elite Eight brought far different results. Here the favorites were 1-3 SU and ATS. In Kentucky’s case, No.1 seeds are now .500 SU against No. 2 seeds in the last 36 meetings in this round, thus underdog players made out well. Nonetheless, coach John Calipari has to be shaking his head thinking his team did not allow a two-point basket in the first 20 minutes against West Virginia and still trailed.

The higher seeds were 2-2 SU and ATS over the weekend, with the total doing a reversal at 3-1 OVER.

With just three games left to be played in this year’s heart-throbbing NCAA tourney, here are the all the betting numbers.

Favorites - 38-23 SU, 29-31-1 ATS
Higher seeds - 41-19, 30-29-1 ATS
Favorites of 7.5 or more -16-1, 9-8 ATS
Favorites of 4 or less -10-17, 9-18 ATS
Totals – 35-26 UNDER
Totals over 140 – 16-12 UNDER
Totals under 130 – 9-6 UNDER

Looking ahead, all four coaches are perfectly suited for this tournament, with 20 of the games decided by five points or less. That means it comes done to execution and the will to win and performing under pressure. Coaches Tom Izzo, Bob Huggins and Mike Krzyzewski are known for their hard-driving styles that demands excellence and don’t sell Brad Stevens short, as he is known for designing the “Butler way” of playing basketball.

Here is wagering tip. If either Final Four encounters goes into overtime, bet against the winner in the title game. In the last three tournaments, the overtime winner is head-shaking 0-10 SU and 1-9 ATS in next outing (Western Kentucky and San Diego are discounted from 2008, since they played each other after overtime games), including 0-5 SU and ATS this season.