Browns try to add to Pittsburgh's problems

Already blanked at home by a division rival in prime time, the Browns get another crack to show the nation how hopeless they are when they host Pittsburgh in a Thursday night tilt on the NFL Network. Cleveland (1-11, 6-6 ATS), a 16-0 loser at home to Baltimore on Monday night in Week 10, has dropped 12 straight against the Steelers (3-9 ATS) and are 1-18 and 6-11-2 ATS against Pittsburgh, including its only playoff game in the past decade.

Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin vowed to “unleash hell in December” after the loss to the Ravens in Week 12 and the Oakland Raiders channeled former AC/DC front man Bon Scott and found out “Hell ain’t a bad place to be” in stunning 27-24 road upset as 15-point underdogs.

Pittsburgh (4-8 ATS) is in great danger of missing the playoffs at 6-6 and facing three difficult remaining games, the defending champs are in a must-win state. That shouldn’t be a concern this week, as win-often is something the Steelers have done in Cleveland, eight straight times while going 4-2-2 ATS.

Coach Tomlin has seen enough. "We can't stay status quo in terms of how we're approaching this and expect the pattern of behavior or outcome to change," Tomlin said. "That's unrealistic. That's hoping. This is not a hope business." Expect to see changes in the secondary, especially at cornerback, where the Steelers have been beaten. All-Pro safety Troy Polamalu will likely miss his fourth straight game with a knee problem and rookie receiver Mike Wallace will start if Hines Wards as presumed can’t go with a bad hamstring. The Steelers are 21-9-2 ATS as division road team.

The Steelers took a messy first meeting with the Browns, 27-14, at Heinz Field behind 417 yards passing from Ben Roethlisberger. The Week 6 game featured eight turnovers—four by each team—but that’s about the only area the statistics were even. The Steelers outgained the Browns 543-197, enjoyed a 28-12 difference in first downs and held the ball for almost 37 minutes.

That victory for the defending Super Bowl champs was their third during a five-game winning streak, but a rough three-game stretch followed and put them squarely on the playoff bubble. Pittsburgh’s loss in Kansas City in Week 11 was particularly disturbing because it rolled up 233 more yards than the Chiefs and saw Roethlisberger wobble off the field in overtime with a concussion that kept him out of a key showdown at Baltimore, which also ended with a defeat in overtime.

The Steelers were in a similar position in 2005 when they won their last four regular-season games to sneak into the playoffs as the No. 6 seed, then went on to win three times on the road in the postseason and beat Seattle in the Super Bowl. Repeating that accomplishment doesn’t seem likely, though it’s entirely possible they’ll be favored to win each of their remaining games. After this trip to the Dawg Pound they play Green Bay and Baltimore at home before closing at Miami. Coming into the season, the Steelers were 7-2 ATS as road favorite off a SU loss; however they have failed to win or cover in two attempts in 2009.

The Browns still are not winning, nevertheless positive signs are emerging. They have beaten the oddsmakers three consecutive times, as Brady Quinn has played more than adequate football, throwing for over 255 yards in two of last three games and hasn’t thrown an interception in that time. Cleveland is 10-4 ATS at home off a home game.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Pittsburgh as 10-point favorites; however, they are just 2-6 ATS in last eight double-digit favorite roles under Tomlin, following the loss to the Raiders Sunday, including 0-4 against the number this season.

Cleveland has won just one of its last dozen games vs. AFC North foes (4-8 ATS) and is trying to snap a 10-game home losing streak. They are 2-7-1 ATS at home since unthinkable Monday night 35-14 upset of the then defending Super Bowl champion New York Giants. After last week’s 30-23 loss to San Diego, the Brownies are 23-12-1 ATS after scoring 23 or more points.

Bettors have hit the total hard, taking it from opening 37.5 to 33. Pittsburgh is 13-4 UNDER in road games off an upset loss as a home favorite and Cleveland is 7-13-1UNDER as a division home dawg.

It will be the usual 8:20 Eastern starting time for this AFC North matchup on the NFL Network, with the UNDER 7-0 on Thursday’s this season.

Steve Makinen of The Platinum Sheet and College and Pro Football Weekly contributed to this article.

NFL quarterback controversy’s

Competition is healthy right? When someone has to compete, they tend to extend more effort and become better at what they do. But what happens when say two mediocre people go head to head? Does it really benefit a company or organization having to pick the best of an average pairing? And what about the sports bettor, he’s left to analyze the merits of mediocrity.

In the NFL, this happens a lot. The most telling position is under center with the quarterback. In studying the list of 32 NFL teams, it is good business to find the quarterback situations that are up for grabs and give strong consideration to playing Under on futures wagers for team totals.

Why you ask, it allows the old professional football proverb – If you have more than one quarterback, you have none.

The Oakland Raiders drafted JaMarcus Russell No.1 two years ago and to call his progress S L O W would be doing injustice to the word itself. Talent-wise the former LSU quarterback can make all the throws, however work habits, dedication, decision-making and staying in shape were all questions marks when he was drafted and remain today. The Oakland camp is so unsure if he is the right person for the job, they’ve brought in 39-year old Jeff Garcia.

Reports have the Raiders organization thinking Russell can learn from Garcia’s work ethic and understand what it takes to play in this league. One problem, Garcia is a curmudgeon, he has no interest in developing Russell, he wants to be the starting quarterback. If Garcia believes he has earned the job in camp (which he always does) and if coach Tom Cable (with Al Davis calling every 10 seconds) decides Russell is his guy to start the season, Garcia’s past suggests a malcontent who isn’t afraid to speak his mind. This sets up combustible situation for a franchise who makes the Kardashian’s seem normal. Sportsbook.com has Da Raaaiders at 5.5 for season wins, but if Russell fails or Garcia starts seeing the ghosts of linemen chasing him like last season, they will fall short of that total in 2009.

New Tampa Bay head coach Raheem Morris was a big fan Josh Freeman at Kansas State and picked him in first round as long term quarterback solution. While most experts considered Freeman a project, he quickly moved up in the eyes of those in the Buccaneers organization with sharp workouts in mini-camps and OTA’s. Freeman was helped significantly competing with Luke McCown and Byron Leftwich.

Morris can’t be milquetoast in making a decision. His options are more limited than he believes and nobody thinks Freeman is as prepared as Matt Ryan for quarterback duty to start the season. The smart thing to do is start McCown and let Freeman learn and make change at midseason if necessary, with veteran Leftwich in the bullpen. Oddsmakers have pegged the Bucs for 6.5 wins after two nine win campaigns, which makes good sense.

Sweeping changes were made in Cleveland, nevertheless, sports talk radio and Browns blogs are still in debate who should be starting quarterback, Derrick Anderson or Brady Quinn. New head man Eric Mangini’s first true decision as coach will be picking one of the two. No matter who he chooses, a large bucketful of support will be for the player that lost, especially if the winner fails to live up to expectations.

The real issue here is ability. Quinn is local guy, but does not possess strong arm and accuracy isn’t his strong point. He can pick up first downs with his legs and likes to throw to tight end in tough spots. His true value is incomplete due to lack of playing and injury. Anderson is neither as good as he played in 2007 nor as awful as he looked last season. He’s like a hot fudge sundae, hot and cold, and definitely turnover-prone. Mangini needs to take a stand with one and live with it, especially in first season as coach and worry about the future later. Bettors have to do the same with Browns listed at 6.5 wins for 2009.

Of course the craziest quarterback controversy isn’t even one and might not ever be one, yet has the juiciest story. Brett Favre will be a Minnesota Viking if his arm is sound and Sage Rosenfels will wonder how he was blindsided. Even more so than Garcia, Favre isn’t putting on a purple and white uniform to wear a headset. He signs; he expects to start, even if he plays the “I just want a chance to compete” card. Except for 2007, Favre has seen a noticeable deterioration in his skill to throw the medium-deep pass (unless it’s a slant) or long pass over the last four years.

Rosenfels sagged as starter for Houston last season, being too much a risk-taker when not needed. Tarvais Jackson has had his chances and fumbled his opportunities to take the Vikings-mantle by the horns and will have to move on to have real shot at starting again. Though Minnesota fans are mildly excited about Favre coming after seeing him beat their team all these years, be careful for what you wish with a quarterback who turns 40 in October. Minnesota total of nine wins could go south if No. 4 fails to impress.

Several other teams don’t have specific issues at the field general position; however they do not have answers necessarily.

Is Trent Edwards really what Buffalo needs at quarterback? He played the role of Indian-giver in 2008. He made the coaches very comfortable in the first half of the season making him the starter and gave it all back with a repulsive second half. Terrell Owens can help, if Edwards can hit the target. Are the Bills capable of beating 7.5 wins set by oddsmakers, after a trio of seven win seasons?

Also in the AFC East, the Jets have to decide on Kellen Clemens, who has never really impressed or draft pick Mark Sanchez to beat a spot of seven wins.

Tennessee has total of nine W’s set on them. Can Kerry Collins continue to be a winner and if not, is Vince Young ready to resume career and become whom the Titans originally believed they had.

Matt Hasselbeck is the starter in Seattle and he’s become increasingly more injury-prone with advancing age. Will new coach Jim Mora have quick hook if Hasselbeck flounders and go with more athletic Seneca Wallace as Seahawks look to reclaim NFC West?

Shaun Hill has 7-3 record as San Francisco starter the last two years, which he earned in part because he had a better feel for Mike Martz offense. That offense has been scrapped with his departure. Hill is tough, with strong pocket presence and a good decision-maker. Word out of the Bay Area is he has teammates respect, but the 2005 top selection Alex Smith is hell-bent on proving he’s not a bust. Smith took a huge pay cut to stay with Niners (obviously nobody called) and believes his mended wing and more traditional offense is better suited to have him be leader of 49ers and pass seven win total placed on them.

With this much acrimony floating around this many different NFL teams, it is hard to make a case any of the teams are worthy of an Over play before the season starts.

MNF in Buffalo has Two Quarterbacks who can wing it

As far as Mr. Quinn’s long anticipated first game at quarterback in the NFL, Brady earned an ‘A’ for the Browns last Thursday night but the rest of the bunch got a failing grade as Cleveland (3-6, 5-4 ATS) slipped further out of playoff contention with a crippling 34-30 loss to visiting Denver.

The Browns second collapse in five days was no fault of Quinn, who completed 23 of 35 passes for 239 yards and two touchdowns and no turnovers. Both scoring tosses went to tight end Kellen Winslow, who had 11 catches for 111 yards. Cleveland also had a season-high 160 yards rushing; however, its defense was torched by Jay Cutler and allowed 564 total yards—the second-most produced in Broncos history. Cleveland is 10-2 ATS after allowing 30 points or more last game over the last three seasons.

Barring injury, there’s no turning back for the Browns. Quinn’s the starter; Derek Anderson’s the backup and likely trade bait during the off-season. Sooner or later it had to happen, and the last straw came in Week 9 against Baltimore when Anderson threw an ill-advised, game-sealing interception that Terrell Suggs brought back for a touchdown.

In Buffalo, Quinn will face a defense that’s allowed only eight passing touchdowns in nine games. But the Bills, 5-4 (4-5 ATS) after last week’s 20-10 loss at New England and mired in a three-game funk, are having trouble getting to the quarterback (14 sacks) and forcing turnovers (12). The Bills are 14-2 ATS after playing the Patriots.

Buffalo has only one win and cover since September and they’ve cracked 20 points just once during the same span. Many fans in Buffalo are lobbying for more carries for running back Marshawn Lynch, who has yet to surpass 100 yards in a game in 2008 after doing so three times in 13 starts as a rookie. However, he does have six touchdowns for a team that 11-1 in November as home favorite versus a non-division team.

Last year’s meeting between these teams was a classic old school viewing. Played in a blizzard in Cleveland, the Browns won 8-0 on two Phil Dawson field goals and a safety. Winds gusted to 40 miles per hour, and Anderson and Trent Edwards combined to complete 22 of 57 passes (38.6 percent) but neither turned the ball over. The victory gave the Browns an 8-5 lead in the all-time regular-season series.

Bookmaker.com has Buffalo as five-point favorite with a total of 41.5. The Bills are 8-1 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record the last two years. A sharp contrast in totals trends is noted for this Monday night affair. Cleveland is 8-1 OVER after allowing 30 points or more last game and coach Dick Jauron’s squad is 6-0 UNDER after two or more consecutive losses against the spread since 2006.

Cleveland covers if they change up a little more this week, being more aggressive in setting up passing game with Quinn and letting Jamal Lewis pound away up the gut later in the game. The former Fighting Irish star showed good poise in throwing short and medium routes and should take shots deep to Braylon (concrete hands) Edwards. Defensive coordinator Mel Tucker has to be wiser to not expose his cornerbacks like last week, since they lack confidence and can be beaten. The Browns are 22-11 ATS after one or more consecutive spread losses.

Buffalo covers by playing the right opponent at the right time. The Bills have rushed for a sliver over 80 yards in losing four of five. The Browns surrender 145 yards on the ground, making this the right moment for Buffalo to get running game back in order. It’s becoming more obvious Trent Edwards, like most quarterbacks does better with good ground attack and is not nearly as comfortable having to play passer all game. Run the pigskin against weak Cleveland run defense and throw shorter passes to rebuild Edwards confidence. Can Quinn chuck the ball around the gridiron, find out be taking away the Browns running game. The Bills are 19-7 ATS in home games in weeks 10 through 13 at Ralph Wilson Stadium.

This week’s Monday night system is to Play Against any road underdog that has failed to cover the spread in last two games. This means voting against the Browns, with this system 20-8 ATS, 71.4 percent and racking up earlier win against Denver when they lost to New England 41-7.

Looking in Rearview Mirror Betting the NFL

The Buffalo Bills have lost three of their last four games and only covered two of last six contests. Opening the season 4-0 is looking a lot less impressive, considering the four victims were Seattle, Jacksonville, Oakland and St. Louis. The NFL has few secrets and teams have to adjust quickly once figured out. Opponents have determined the best way to stifle Bills offense. The Bills had a number of big plays with receiver Lee Evans, however defenses have started double-teaming him, focus on stopping the running game on early downs and man up on short passing game. Until the Buffalo coaching staff finds ways to adjust, hard to back the Bills.

East of Dallas, their might not be a more disappointing team in football than Jacksonville. This was supposed to be breakout season. The Jaguars are believed to be a physical running team, yet are 17th in rushing and 19th in stopping the run. They reached rock bottom is losing to Cincinnati last week as Cedric (Evinrude) Benson rushed for 104 yards, that’s right boat boy got a hundred plus. Jacksonville spent a lot of money on upgrading secondary, it hasn’t worked and the Jaguars are going nowhere in the AFC South.

Watching Dallas get whacked by the Giants, the thought occurred Brad Johnson should have retired at halftime. Tony Romo is far from the only problem with the Cowboys, as the offensive line is playing horrible considering the talent. Dallas is 3-11 ATS since last December and counting.

Looking at the schedule from opponent’s ability, Detroit has a shot at 0-16. Though it is unlikely to happen, they will be an underdog by a minimum of three points in any given game the rest of the year. The Lions have covered three of last four and will play five home games the rest of the way.

The Oakland Raiders, what a sorry franchise. Al Davis spent all kinds of money overpaying for free agents and since another season is being flushed, now he’s going to dump some of them so not to have to pay scheduled bonuses in the off-season. He’s like the guy in the commercial who buys the painting and wants to turn around and sell it. Lane Kiffen at least left with his sanity. Al, it’s time to step away, you are legend in the AFL and NFL, turn the reigns over and let somebody rebuild this team to when Pride and Poise actually meant something.

Quick Outs- Brady Quinn gets to start in Cleveland; will it matter if your best receiver keeps dropping touchdown passes?

The Baltimore defense was supposed to be great again, but rookies Joe Flacco and Ray Rice are two of the big reasons for the Ravens being 6-2 and 5-3 against the spread. Wonders never cease in the NFL.

By the end of Week 10, the Arizona Cardinals could have as big a divisional lead as the Tennessee Titans. Based on the past, Arizona is about as safe a bet as a 10-team parlay, yet the competition is so meager, they almost but can’t help but win the NFC West. The Cardinals still have to make two trips back East to Philadelphia and New England, however earning the number two position in the NFC is not out of the range of possibilities. As has been stated here several times this season, given time, Kurt Warner is still a Top 5 quarterback in the NFL.

With the current state of the Denver Broncos, is a 3-5 San Diego squad in the best position to win the AFC West?

I used to follow this all the time and started again. Take the top and bottom four teams in scoring average in each conference. When any two teams of the higher scoring teams play each other, play OVER and when the lower scoring teams play one another play UNDER. I let each team have somewhat of a track record, thus started with week five. The year to date record is 7-2 against the total.

Touchdown favorites in the NFL continue to be a lousy wager with a 14-16 ATS record and home underdogs are even worse at 15-21 against the spread.