Knowing Football Numbers Builds Bankrolls

Remember just a couple of weeks ago, when the sportsbooks where whining like adult babies about all the favorites winning and they were suffering heavy losses, well they were strangely quiet after this weekend and for good reason. The books cleaned up as NFL favorites were 3-10 against the spread. They reaped the benefits of Green Bay losing outright to Tampa Bay, helping them take in a great deal of teaser money. The San Diego Chargers come from behind victory was also a boom, as heavy betting by Giants fans figuring their team couldn’t lose four in a row, was flushed away. NFL favorites are 28-38-1 ATS the last five weeks.

This helps set up a very interesting Week 10 in the NFL, as teams off road underdog outright wins are 13-6-1 ATS. This week Tennessee, San Diego, Dallas and Arizona all qualify.

It used to be only sharps would bet football early and it would be relatively easy to track what top bettors were playing. It seems as least this year that has not been the case. In the NFL, games that move two or more points on sides by Tuesday night are 5-9 ATS in that direction and totals are even worse 6-12. That’s not to say sharp bettors don’t have off years. But last week was perfect example of patterns not following traditional methods of smart bettors. New Orleans shot from 8.5 to 11-point favorite in a division game against Atlanta and defensive-minded clubs Denver and Baltimore opened at 40 and rose to 42 quickly. Over the years, that is contrarian to their normal wagering patterns.

The Midwest might be facing declining population and the Big Ten clearly is not what it used to be, however these fans still support football and backing them with cash is still frequented. It was a dreadful day for alumni betting on their favorites and the books pocketed handsomely. In games between Big Ten Conference foes, the underdog was perfect 5-0 ATS, with four outright road upsets.

After coming up short most of the season, college home underdogs are showing some bite with 22-14 ATS record the last couple of weeks. Teams off three exact covers (no bye weeks) are 6-14-1 ATS the last month. Teams that force or commit five or more turnovers are 22-8-1 ATS the last month if they play the following week.

Though the numbers has dropped off from ridiculous proportions, totals moves of three or more points from opening until closing are still scintillating 106-56-2, 65.4 percent in the direction they’ve moved and have yet to have a losing week all season.

NBA Thursday Hoops

With the New York Yankees champions of baseball for a 27th time and college basketball and NFL Thursday games starting next week, the NBA has a rather uncluttered sports marketplace for its televised doubleheader on TNT. Take a gander at tonight’s matchups and key betting information.

Chicago at Cleveland 8:00E

The idea behind bring in Shaquille O’Neal was to have greater inside presence and be able to contain Orlando’s Dwight Howard and Boston’s big men once the playoffs started. Cleveland coach Mike Brown new it would take time for all the pieces to mesh together, but Cavaliers fans expected everything to work from day one. After the Cavs (3-2, 2-3 ATS) lost first two games, Cleveland talk radio was alive, wondering what was wrong. Since then, cooler heads have prevailed and the Cavaliers will be going after fourth straight win this season. Coach Brown is defensive-minded and while the offense has not sorted out completely, his club is 11-2 ATS after three or more consecutive Under’s.

Chicago (2-2, 1-3 ATS) is a .500 team, in spite of horrible offensive start. The Bulls are shooting 40.9 percent from the field (27th), making only 22.2 percent from behind the arc (29th) and are dreadful 69.9 percent (27th) from the charity stripe. Despite all iron clanging, they trailed Milwaukee at home by 18 points in the third quarter and roared back to win 83-81. Chicago is integrating Luol Deng back into the lineup after missing the last quarter of the season and playoffs with leg stress fracture.

Bookmaker.com has Cleveland as 10.5-point favorite, with total of 187.5. The Cavs are 9-2 SU and ATS against Chicago in last 11 meetings and they are 15-5 ATS after a cover as a double digit favorite. The Bulls will look to be a pesky underdog and they are 7-2-1 ATS when catching 5 to 10.5 points as visiting pooch.

San Antonio at Utah 10:30 E

The San Antonio Spurs (2-1 SU&ATS) in the offseason set out to get younger and more athletic up and down the roster, without altering its three core players. The too early to tell results have the Spurs scoring 113 points twice in three games, which is a dramatic shift. The most important acquisition was Richard Jefferson, giving San Antonio a wing player that adds versatility. Keeping Manu Ginobili as healthy as possible is imperative, since he’s a great scoring option off the bench and clutch fourth quarter scorer. The 19-point victory over Sacramento on Halloween means the Spurs are rested, however just 3-13-1 ATS after a double digit triumph.

Utah (1-3 SU&ATS) will try to avoid its slowest start in seven seasons. The Jazz appeared set to be .500, but were outscored 44-18 at Dallas in the fourth quarter, as they had no answer for Dirk Nowitzki, who scored 29 of his 40 points in the last 12 minutes, handing Utah a 96-85 avalanche-like loss.

Utah’s resolve will be tested as 1.5-point home underdogs with total of 199.5. The Jazz are 15-4 ATS in home games after failing to cover three of their last four against the spread, but are just 5-18 ATS as underdogs. The Spurs are 2-5 ATS at Utah in last seven tries; however the favorite covers 75 percent of the time (21-7) when these two Western Conference squads collide.

Fish floundering and in lousy betting situation

Both Atlanta and Florida are on the outer reaches of the race for the wild card chase, nevertheless, both still have a chance if they could put together a significant winning streak and Colorado would falter. The Braves have placed themselves in the better position having won the last two nights against the Marlins at Land Shark Stadium, leaving them three games behind the Rockies.

Atlanta (70-62, -3.5 units) is chasing first postseason berth in four years and have helped themselves immensely winning eight of last 11 games on the road, moving them to 35-32 on the season as visitor’s. The Braves are 19-9 after five or more consecutive road games this season and have named Javier Vazquez (11-9, 3.02 ERA) as starter, who will be seeking his fifth straight road win.

Atlanta has won Vazquez’s last five starts on the road and he is 7-2 with 2.96 ERA in Braves traveling uniforms and the linemakers at DiamondSportsbook.com have made this combination a -150 money line favorite.

Florida (68-64, +0.9 units) has been in a tailspin at just the wrong time, losing nine of last 13 games. The bats haven’t been able to keep up with the Florida weather and have averaged a cool four runs per game in the process, compared to 4.7 on the season.

The Marlins failed to take advantage of a favorable situation last night facing Tim Hudson, who was making his first start in 13 months after elbow surgery, but scored only two runs in 5 1/3 innings against him and three on the night in a frustrating 4-3 defeat.

Rich VandenHurk (2-2, 5.12) gets the ball for Florida after being a September call-up from the minors, having had success against the Braves with 2-0 record and 3.91 ERA in five lifetime starts. While that makes Fish fans hopeful, the fact remains VandenHurk was sent back down to the minors in mid-August after posting 7.98 ERA in three previous starts.

This leads to a potentially lucrative system for the baseball sports bettor that reads this way.

Play Against home underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175, who are average NL offensive team scoring 4.3 to 4.8 runs a game, against a good starting pitcher (ERA of 3.70 or less), after a loss by two runs or less.

Dating back to 1997, this superb system is 53-14, 79.1 percent, with the average margin of victory being 2.6 runs per game. This profitable system is enhanced with Vazquez and the Braves 13-3 as road favorite of -110 or higher. Consider this as potential play in Wednesday baseball action.