Meaningful West Coast Conference Clash

Gonzaga has been the 800-pound gorilla in the WCC, winning nine consecutive league crowns. Though a few different teams have challenged them in recent years, the one having the most success and creeping ever closer is St. Mary’s, who continues to bring in a solid array of players from here and abroad. Tonight is the first of at least two and possibly three matchups between these respectful rivals.

The coaching aplomb of Mark Few is on display again this season. Despite a treacherous non-conference slate, Gonzaga (12-3, 7-4-1 ATS) came thru with shining colors, in spite of the fewest number of returning scorers in years. What makes the Bulldogs the favorite in the West Coast Conference is the addition of freshman forward Elias Harris, whose averaged 18.5 points per game in last four outings. His easy transition to the collegiate game enables Gonzaga to appear to be the best team in the league. One area of concern is free throw shooting (66.9 as a team), beyond Matt Bouldin and Steven Gray. The Zags are 26-14 ATS in January road games the last several years.

While Gonzaga looks like a conference champ again, St. Mary’s (15-2, 13-3 ATS) won’t be easily dismissed. They have road wins at Utah State and Oregon, showing the Gaels are battle-tested and they have been one of the favorite plays of sports bettors all season with their stellar spread record. St. Mary’s has the best big man in the WCC in center Omar Samhan, who is also getting mentions on the national level. The biggest concern on game day for coach Randy Bennett is Samhan being aggressive without committing fouls. Mickey McConnell and freshman Matthew Dellavedova have added a constant scoring threat from the backcourt for a team 8-2 ATS after scoring 80 points or more this season, like they did at Santa Clara in last outing (80-72).

St. Mary’s play the last few years has earned the respect of oddsmakers like those at Bookmaker.com and they are listed as four-point favorites with total of 152. The Gaels are 9-2 ATS versus teams outscoring their opponents by eight or more points a game (Gonzaga is +9.9) over the last two seasons. St. Mary’s is an outstanding shooting team, 49.5 percent from the field and 41 percent from beyond the arc, which helps explain why they are 14-5 OVER in all home games over the last two seasons.

Gonzaga is going to have to turn up the defensive pressure, as they are 2-9 ATS after three straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers. The Bulldogs are 10-2 OVER on the season, including 7-2 OVER as visitors.

This WCC encounter starts at 8:00 Pacific on ESPN2 with Gonzaga 8-4 at McKeon Pavilion since 1997, with 5-7 ATS mark.

Betting info for St. Mary's and Gonzaga final

This is what St. Mary’s has pointed to since losing star guard Patrick Mills on Jan. 29 at Gonzaga, a chance to win the West Coast Conference post-season tournament. Mills suffered a broken hand in that game after playing sensationally. The Gaels went on to lose the contest 69-62 as 10-point underdogs and put up a game effort in falling 72-70 at home without Mills. Though Mills is not 100 percent ready to go, St. Mary’s has to be energized having their leader back and wants to earn some revenge.

Though the season didn’t go as planned for Gonzaga either, they have dominated the WCC with 15-0 (8-7 ATS) record, winning by an average of 20.7 points per game. Gonzaga (25-5, 14-14 ATS) has won eight of the last 10 WCC tournament titles and is making 12th straight finals appearance. The Bulldogs have won 17 of 18, with only loss to streaking Memphis and took care of business decidedly last evening. After a tough ball game at Santa Clara 11 days ago, winning by eight as 10.5-point favorites, the Zags had their offense in high gear and raced by the Broncos 94-59. Austin Daye led the assault with career high 28 points.

It’s hard to stop us when we have our break going and we’re having fun,” said senior guard Jeremy Pargo, who had 16 points. Nevertheless, Gonzaga has had their troubles with defensive-minded teams like St. Mary’s and is 9-20 ATS versus teams allowing 64 or less points a game over the last two seasons.

St. Mary’s (25-5, 16-10 ATS) has two intentions tonight, the first is win first WCC title in 12 years or make an awfully strong impression to those that matter who will be watching this game that will pick the at-large teams. The Gaels were a virtual certainty to make the NCAA field before Mills was injured and scheduled one more game this week (they were one game below the maximum number of games played) to hopefully improve record and give Mills more playing time along with enhancing reputation.

The Gaels haven’t been in the WCC finals since 2005 and Mills believes he’s close to ready.
“It took longer than I hoped to warm up, but that’s OK, because it was a good warmup for (Monday),” said Mills, who is averaging 20.3 points in his career against the Bulldogs. “There were times when I tried to baby it a bit, but once I got in the flow, it was all right. It was stiff to start out, but it felt good to be out there, especially with the boys again.” St. Mary’s is 6-0 ATS versus teams outscoring opponents by eight or more points a game this season.

Gonzaga has won 26 of the previous 30 (17-13 ATS) matchups with St. Mary’s and Bookmaker.com have them as seven-point favorites, with a total of 137.5. The Bulldogs are just 3-9 ATS against teams with winning records, while the Gaels are 13-3 ATS revenging a close loss vs opponent of three points or less.

ESPN will have the coverage of this anticipated contest at 9 Eastern, with St. Mary’s 0-8 as neutral site underdogs.

Note - For information on tonight's other three conference title games click here.