Perspective thoughts

I’ve run out of time before the games are starting tonight to go into great depth about are the best sides and totals from 3Daily Winners, however have had good material about the NBA for today. I’d like to share an experience I had in college basketball wagering this season.

Last night’s trifling loss concluded my CBB season at 183-150, +18 SU units. (I’m dropping pushes) While I’ve had better records on a season, I’ve never been more proud of what I accomplished since on Jan. 23, I was 36-54, a +51 game turnaround.

In addition, I was down over 57 units and ended up officially +46.2 units for the year. Most satisfy. My main point is to keep working hard at whatever you do to be the best you can be. I couldn’t have been in any worse shape, but I rethought what I was doing and changed my approach, if not my methods.

While the world focuses on being No.1 because they believe that’s all that matters, the fact is persevering can be even more satisfying.

What I thought yesterday- What a game last night!

From a coaching perspective, the chess game was really a thing of beauty asboth Coach K and Stevens made a number of tactical moves that were brilliant. I don’t know if you noticed but Butler had a very clear intent to touch/foul Duke after every regular jump shot attempt. Their intent of course was to make the Blue Devils players aware they were going to be right on them and Coach K was pissed near the end of the first half about it.

Midway thru the second half, officials started to pay closer attention and called two fouls and the Bulldogs backed off.

In a world that loves the underdog, I was rooting for Duke. The amount of money I wagered was peanuts and I have not one thing against Butler, but I admire people or business’ that have built something and are able to maintain it at or near the top for long periods. (Legally of course)

If you noticed Coach K was shaking his head in disbelief that his team actually had won the national championship and I’m sure he realized in that moment, this was an improbable collection of players to win a title and it might have been his least talented team in his eight title game appearances.

While unemployment continues to run high and many others fear for their jobs because of potential cuts by employer, what must it be like to be Brad Stevens today? He’ll decide when it time to go, but what a future he’s set for himself.

My Personal Title Game Play

The big moment has arrived and you have seen every conceivable angle about how the NCAA title game will play out. The Left Coast Connection members are 16 -9 on Butler with the points and the Under 10-3 from those that are betting it.

Personally I think the number is correct and this is one title game I don’t have definite feel for. What I’m about to tell is not super compelling, yet this is among the reasons I’m betting Duke at -7 at 1*. (I'm 15-5-1 ATS in the tournament)

When Butler shoots under 40 percent this season, they are pedestrian 4-3 ATS in next contest. When Duke shoots over 50 percent they are 4-1 ATS the following game, meaning at least to me they have a good carry over.

In common opponents this year, Butler is -4 in point differential, while the Blue Devils are +7.3.

Duke’s size is part of the difference they collar the Bulldogs and they drain free throws to win by 10 in the last few minutes.

For those that were not here a year ago, I finished No.1 at Free Sports Monitor and The Sports Eye in baseball last season with 178-124 record, good for +32.80 units.

Though I’m excited for MLB action, I take it slow the first couple of weeks, letting the season unfold, as there are lots of surprise teams and upsets early on. Everyone should play how they are most comfortable and this works for me. If you are not receiving my FREE plays, you are missing out, look to the right and sign up on email list.

As opposed to college hoops and NBA this past season, I’m ready with knowledge about baseball.

Enjoy the game tonight.

Blue Monday for Butler and Duke

It comes down to this. Yahoo Sports probably had it best with this headline –David vs. Duke. The lovable Butler Bulldogs have captured college basketball’s imagination with its improbable run to the national championship game with a coach and its best player looking younger than next year’s incoming recruiting class. Big bad Duke, sort of the New York Yankees of the hardwood, is loved by their fans hated by everyone else.

This is setting up as the sequel of “Hoosiers”, just in modern day. A band of talented young men led a by a coach who looks like an AAU coach just out of college goes to the sports title game in the school’s home city and nearby Hinkle Fieldhouse (the team’s real home) is replaced by Lucas Oil Stadium. This is so ridiculous a movie producer would can the screen play as a joke.

There is no joking about the talent of Gordon Hayward, who had 19 points and nine rebounds in the first Final Four contest and was the calmest player you will ever see when introduced for a big game. Butler (33-4, 17-20 ATS) has won 25 contents in a row and knocked off Syracuse, Kansas State and Michigan State, after many had believed they could have lost to UTEP or Murray State in their first two encounters of this tournament.

Even losing coach Tom Izzo was impressed.

“If I was not playing, I'd be a Butler fan," Michigan State coach Tom Izzo said. "I like they way they play, I like their story. They play like a Big Ten team." The Bulldogs are now 26-14 ATS in non-conference games over the last three seasons.

Duke’s return to prominence has some people feeling blue. The Blue Devils (34-5, 23-14-1 ATS) are back, playing with that confidence that comes from wearing a uniform that many consider a four-letter word. Coach Mike Krzyzewski had his team so well prepared it looked like a scrimmage against West Virginia at various points of the game.

Duke regularly solved the Mountaineers switching defense, getting a number of shot attempts within four feet of the rim. Once West Virginia players became overly conscious of Blue Devils players on the inside, it was target practice, as the Big 3 (Kyle Singler, Nolan Smith and Jon Scheyer) shredded their defense on 12 for 23 shooting behind the three-point line.

The Blue Devils are 19-11 ATS after playing four consecutive games as favorite this season and know this isn’t about just three players shooting the ball well.

“We won this game as a team," Singler said. "It wasn't just put on my shoulders, or Jon's or Nolan's. We won this game from all sides contributing."

Part of the team is a man possessed, center Brian Zoubek who again pulled down 10 rebounds. His determination, which borders on serious anger, has him pulling down rebounds like mad man from a Rob Zombie movie. As Duke goes after its fourth national championship for Coach K, this is how Zoubek feels. “This is the culmination of four years for me. To have a shot at the championship my senior year, after everything we've been through, is a dream come true."

Duke was near perfect against West Virginia and they are 9-1 ATS after a game committing eight or less turnovers which plays a part why DiamondSportsbook.com has them as 7.5-point favorites, with total of 128.5. Coach Krzyzewski is making sure everyone knows that despite Butler not having the brand recognition of the team he coach’s, this opponent is no fairy tale.

“I think they're one of the best teams in the country," Krzyzewski said of Butler. "I think a Cinderella would be more if somebody had eight or nine losses and pulled some upsets." The Devils are 12-5 ATS versus defensive teams allowing 64 or fewer points a game this season and are 8-1 UNDER after they’ve made 50 percent or more of their three-point shots the last three years.

Butler could start this game at a real disadvantage, considering Duke’s size and rebounding ability. Forward Matt Howard did not practice with his team Sunday and is a "game-time decision" according to his coach Brad Stevens. Howard is averaging 12.3 points and 5.4 rebounds per game and would be sorely missed. Butler guard Shelvin Mack said he suffered cramps and will be ready.

Butler’s help-defense has become the talk of the tournament, along with its incredible patience on offense, which is why they are 12-5 ATS after one or more Under’s this year. The Bulldogs are 11-2 OVER after scoring 60 points or less.

This matchup seems real simple, Butler cannot shoot 30.6 percent like they did against the Spartans and they cannot allow Duke to convert 52.7 percent as they did vs. West Virginia. If the Blue Devils are raining shots, Duke covers and wins convincingly. However, if the Bulldogs find three players to make shots consistently, box-out effectively to draw Duke fouls, where they can march to the charity stripe and convert 73.8 percent like they have all season, well, it is game on.

No matter what, one team will be blue and green with envy.

Spartans vs Bulldogs Final Four Matchup

The first semi-final of the Final Four is the most unusual pairing since No.11 George Mason was matched against No. 3 Florida in 2006. Though we weren’t really certain just how good the Gators truly were until a couple days later, at least they were among the top 12 seeds in that tournament. This year, Michigan State and Butler are a pair of five seeds, which happens to be the lowest matchup of seeds since fifth-seeded Florida faced eighth-seeded North Carolina ten years ago.

Doing it the Izzo way

Michigan State (28-8, 15-20 ATS) is trying to return to national championship game and has had quite a journey. In this tournament alone, the Spartans have wins by 1, 2 and 3 points and “beat down” of Northern Iowa by a whole seven points. Michigan State players do deserve props for making it this far, since it would appear unlikely that any of the other three teams still playing college basketball would be here if they lost their leading scorer like Tom Izzo’s team did in Kalin Lucas.

The Spartans are 19-8 ATS in all neutral court games over the last three seasons and will have to follow the same formula that got them to Indianapolis. Durrell Summers is averaging 22 points in last three contests, scoring from inside and out. Raymar Morgan has more picked his spots, but made a volume of buckets when his team needed it most. Draymond Green is big body that is difficult to maneuver on either side of the floor and is among the reasons Michigan State outrebounds teams by 8.7 per contest. Korie Lucious has stepped his game taking over the point and though he makes the occasional head-shaking turnover, he’s been an exceptional facilitator and has a feel when to take the right shot. The Spartans are 15-6 ATS away from home having won four of their last five games over the last two years.

Bulldogs believe in the “Butler Way”

Cinderella doesn’t get to this dance scrubbing floors, which by why Butler (32-4, 16-20 ATS) is not a fairly tale. The Bulldogs have won 24 consecutive games (13-11 ATS) with a staunch defense, not having surrendered more than 59 points in the tournament and doing so just once in previous 12 encounters. This makes them difficult to beat as a coach that has faced Butler noted.

“They’re the best late-game defensive team I’ve played against, with switching and making all the right decisions. They’re really good in late-game decisions both offensively and defensively. I was really impressed. Everything they do is so solid.”

Butler is up to 7-3 ATS in the NCAA’s and while Brad Stevens looks like Tom Izzo’s unpaid assistant in charge of taping opposing teams games, this dude can coach. He’s put together this smothering help-defense and brings calmness, as you don’t see Butler players wide-eyed when the opponent makes a surge.

Sophomore point guard Ronald Nored said this, “If you beat us, it won’t be because you rattled us.”

Butler will experiment with four guards and Gordon Hayward against the Spartans to see how they adjust. This offense has given the Bulldogs a quickness edge which opens up the lane for different players to take their man off the bounce or run “pick and rolls” or “pick and pops” in isolation sequences.

This is close

DiamondSportsbook.com has Butler as one-point favorites, with total of 126.

Coach Stevens has a motto made for texting-TGHT- which stands for, The Game Honors Toughness. Butler showed their “onions” giving away leads to Syracuse and Kansas State, before bulling the neck and putting each team away in the final minutes. The Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS after a combined score of 125 points or less in consecutive contests and 7-1 against the number when seeded 5th to 8th in the NCAA tournament. They are 8-0 OVER on a neutral court floor when the total is 129.5 or less, however the crowd will be far from neutral with hometown team getting the support from locals.

Michigan State is 29-15 ATS in all their NCAA appearances over the last 13 years and is 8-1 ATS as a neutral court underdog of six points or less or pick and are 25-11 UNDER versus teams who average 33 or less rebounds a game on the season after 15 or more have been played.

The excitement swells until 6:05 Eastern tip, with Final Four squads off two upset victories like Butler 2-8 ATS.

Final Four Wagering Outlook

The last time this many low seeds made it to their final destination was 2000, when Michigan State (1 seed) was paired with Florida (5), Wisconsin (8) and North Carolina (8). For students of the game, it was obvious there were no great teams this season. Many of the higher seeds had flaws and most were exposed by opponents who brought a little something extra on the day these teams fell. While people talk about parity, a more concise assessment about the 2009-10 campaign was competitive balance, meaning on any given day, any team could beat another in a one game setting.

This brings together an eclectic combination and no matter what, a five seed will play for the championship for the first time since the Gators did a decade ago.

Who can be crowned champion in this most uncommon of years, here is a look at each team’s brings to the table.

Butler (+350 to win national championship at DiamondSportsbook.com)

Butler (32-4, 16-20 ATS) advances to their first ever Final Four and as luck would have it, they don’t even have to travel to a far away destination. The Bulldogs have the highest winning percentage among the four teams at 88.8 percent, thanks to reeling off 24 (13-11 ATS) straight wins. This season the prize for doing so is playing in downtown Indianapolis, less than eight miles away from the Butler campus. The Bulldogs will be the first team to play in home city since UCLA in Los Angeles in 1971.

In the beginning of the season, Butler was top 10 material, but losses to Minnesota, Clemson, Georgetown and UAB (the first three in NCAA tournament) had people saying they weren’t quick or strong enough to compete at the higher levels. Looking at the kenpom.com for -Opponents average adjusted defensive efficiency- finds the Bulldogs have been in the Top 10 most of 2010 and explains why they have allowed more than 60 points once in last 12 games.

Butler has a star in Gordon Hayward and very good collegiate players like Matt Howard and Shelvin Mack along with Horizon League co-defensive player of the year Ronald Nored. The Bulldogs are 7-3 ATS in last 10 NCAA tourney tilts.

Bulter can win the title at “home” if they continue to play the “Butler” way, which is hard-nosed defense, intelligent on offense and strict use of fundamentals which makes up for athletic shortcomings. Though not a good spread team, they are 11-4 ATS the last 15 times they’ve scored 70 or more points.

Michigan State (+450)

In the words of CBS announcer Verne Lundquist, “Well how do you do?” Michigan State (28-8, 15-20 ATS) keeps being counted out and for the sixth time since 1999 and in back to back years, the Spartans will their way to the Final Four. Tom Izzo’s squad will welcome the week off before playing on Saturday, as their road to Indianapolis has been the most nerve-wracking, winning four games by a total of 13 points, including the “blowout” of Northern Iowa by seven.

Many times we hear about coaches winning games in March and now April in college basketball, however a coach has never made or missed a shot from the sidelines. What makes Tom Izzo so special this time of year is attention to detail. He prepares his players to succeed all the time. A striking contrast between Michigan State and Kentucky in their Elite Eight games was the Spartans were more thoughtful and executed their passes better than the Wildcats, who were too casual. Izzo’s teams are 22-9 ATS as a neutral court underdog or pick.

Michigan State is 19-8 ATS in all neutral court games over the last three seasons and its players have taken it upon themselves to make-up for the loss of top scorer Kalin Lucas. Looking at tape of the determination level of Durrell Summers and Raymar Morgan is striking from a month ago; were it was not unusual for them to disappear on the floor for periods of time; no more for these Spartans in their hunt for a second straight championship game appearance.

The Spartans finish the job they started last season, by out-executing opponents and making shots.

West Virginia (+225)

It’s been 51 years since West Virginia (31-6, 17-19 ATS) has been to a Final Four, led by Jerry West, who would become NBA Hall of Famer and have his likeness be part of NBA logo. The Mountaineers were a team many believed capable of playing in Indianapolis in early April, way back in November.

This is a team that just keeps on working, being average in shooting at 43.1 percent, tenacious on the offensive glass and literally finding ways to win. This tournament more than in the past several years, shows the ability to win four games to reach this juncture is razor thin. A missed shot and a made basket at the other end within 10-20 seconds has ended up the difference or critical point for all these winners.

West Virginia is very much like their coach Bob Huggins, scrappy, tenacious and unrelenting. The Mountaineers look to impose their will on you with smothering defense, getting in your face with switching man-to-man. Huggins also has shown his flexibility in using 1-3-1 zone, something the older players were used to when John Beilein was still in Morgantown. Because of the height and wingspan of many of Huggins’ players, this zone has shutdown opposing teams, nearly every time is use. WVU is 16-2 ATS in a NCAA tournament games since 1997.

Da'Sean Butler is the go to guy on offense and Devin Ebanks has learned his role on this club as the season wore on, being more effective offensively as well as defensively. Kevin Jones and Wellington Smith are excellent role players, each with job to do and Joe Mazzulla has stepped up game having to fill in for Darryl "Truck" Bryant.

The ‘Teers have won 10 in a row (7-3 ATS) and keep finding ways to win, which might be enough to be champs of college basketball if they can shorten scoring droughts.

Duke (+120)

On Selection Sunday, a few wondered if Duke (33-5, 22-14-1 ATS) would be a No. 1 seed, as it turns out the selection committee was accurate in their assessment of the Blue Devils. This is as different a team as coach Mike Krzyzewski has taken to what will be his 11th Final Four. Most of the Durham teams of the past were loaded with high school All-Americans, many with pro potential. This team is more like a team of one of his former players and now assistant coach Steve Wojciechowski, just with more overall ability. “Wojo” was a tough-minded player who made the most of his talent and never quit. This Duke squad is much the same way, in attack mode continually.

This Blue Devils team can still fill the basket from all areas of the offensive zone, but now has the height with Brian Zoubek, Lance Thomas and the Plumlee brothers, to aggressively rebound at both ends of the floor. The Dukies are 20-8 ATS after two straight games with 15 or more offensive rebounds. Duke also plays very good positional defense, holding teams to 40.2 percent shooting and now the guards and wing players can funnel opposing teams towards the lane where tall timber awaits.

Duke wins it all if they continue to play great defense, especially on the perimeter, rebound and have at least two of their three outside shooters, Jon Scheyer, Kyle Singler or Nolan Smith hitting at normal or above figures from the outside. A rested Duke squad is a very good squad this season at 17-1 and 11-5-1 ATS with three or more days off.

NCAA Tournament Wagering Tally

Just when it seemed impossible for this year’s tournament to get any better we were given the instant classic between Kansas State and Xavier in double overtime, along with Tennessee in two titanic struggles, both coming down to the last shot in the last two rounds. As we move ahead, here is a wagering overview of the tournament to date.

Once the Sweet 16 arrives, Cinderella’s usually finds the clock striking midnight and indeed it did for St. Mary’s, Northern Iowa, Cornell and Washington, losing by an average of 15 points per game. High seeds were not completely immune from being struck down as Syracuse and Ohio State were both laid to rest. Still, favorites and higher seeds were 6-2 and 5-2-1 ATS.

In this round, if a team was favored by 7.5 or more points or four or less, they were 3-0 against the number. Totals were also decidedly one way in the Thursday-Friday matchups with the UNDER an overwhelming 7-1.

The Elite Eight brought far different results. Here the favorites were 1-3 SU and ATS. In Kentucky’s case, No.1 seeds are now .500 SU against No. 2 seeds in the last 36 meetings in this round, thus underdog players made out well. Nonetheless, coach John Calipari has to be shaking his head thinking his team did not allow a two-point basket in the first 20 minutes against West Virginia and still trailed.

The higher seeds were 2-2 SU and ATS over the weekend, with the total doing a reversal at 3-1 OVER.

With just three games left to be played in this year’s heart-throbbing NCAA tourney, here are the all the betting numbers.

Favorites - 38-23 SU, 29-31-1 ATS
Higher seeds - 41-19, 30-29-1 ATS
Favorites of 7.5 or more -16-1, 9-8 ATS
Favorites of 4 or less -10-17, 9-18 ATS
Totals – 35-26 UNDER
Totals over 140 – 16-12 UNDER
Totals under 130 – 9-6 UNDER

Looking ahead, all four coaches are perfectly suited for this tournament, with 20 of the games decided by five points or less. That means it comes done to execution and the will to win and performing under pressure. Coaches Tom Izzo, Bob Huggins and Mike Krzyzewski are known for their hard-driving styles that demands excellence and don’t sell Brad Stevens short, as he is known for designing the “Butler way” of playing basketball.

Here is wagering tip. If either Final Four encounters goes into overtime, bet against the winner in the title game. In the last three tournaments, the overtime winner is head-shaking 0-10 SU and 1-9 ATS in next outing (Western Kentucky and San Diego are discounted from 2008, since they played each other after overtime games), including 0-5 SU and ATS this season.

Sunday Plays and thoughts from Saturday

What an odd day in basketball! 3DW was 1-1 in official picks and our system play that was just below 80 percent (79.5) is now over with two winners yesterday. All of our plays today are from the NBA, with an outstanding system that is 26-4 ATS. The Top Trend is from tonight’s ESPN affair and is a perfect total play. Slick Rick looks to hunt down another winner, this one on the road again. Good Luck

What I thought yesterday- I've never seen a team as tired as Kansas State in a big game from start to finish.I've never seen a game where a team did not have a two-point field goal and led at halftime. (West Virginia)

As I wrote in my article about the game, I presumed West Virginia would play more 1-3-1 zone. In theory a good coaching job by Huggins, but a terrible effort by John Calipari in preparation and execution by his players. Yes, Kentucky is young, but that has nothing to do with how you perform execution.

I coached AAU basketball for a number of years and the 1-3-1 zone is one of the easiest to defeat. Like any zone, you have to hit shots which Kentucky did not do. However, how you take it a step further is crisp passing (not look-hold-pass), which forces the wing players to cover about 10 feet of space on continual basis. Over time that should open up shots at 15 feet, not 20 or more.

Next you send weak-side cutter thru and have your player in the middle set screen for possible layup up or catch and pass to big man in the middle. Or you have your big man set screen opposite side when the ball is at the top of either side for weak-side dunk from low wing player against smaller low man in the zone.

I saw none of this by coach Cal.

It's interesting to note both teams that lost Saturday played the later games on Thursday and neither was mentally sharp and both shot the ball incredibly poorly. Curious to see what Michigan State and Duke do in same circumstance.

Do you realize a 5 or 6 seed is guaranteed to play in national championship with Butler, Michigan State and Tennessee alive on that side of the bracket?

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Play On road teams like Golden State, scoring 103 or more points a game on the season, after trailing in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half. Since 2005, this system checks in at 26-4 ATS, 86.7 percent.

Free Basketball Trend -2) Boston is 10-0 UNDER after leading their last two games by 10 or points at the half over the last two seasons.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Slick Rick is 20-7 since last Sunday and his Best Bet this day is Portland.

Will the Butler do it?

This or similar headlines will appear across the country for the West Regional final and what it lacks in originally, it makes up for in convenience. A season ago, NCAA administrators realized they could have a home court advantage on their hands and while they welcomed the extra revenue of having Michigan State make it to the championship game, they had to be pleased that talent won out and North Carolina won the title, thus avoiding criticism for a team having football sized crowd edge in the sports most important contest.

Here we are one year later and the very same thing could occur again if Butler (31-4, 15-20 ATS) wins yet again, this time taking down the No. 2 seed out West in Kansas State (29-7, 21-9-1 ATS). Either way, the Bulldogs are heading back to Indianapolis after this Elite Eight encounter, but they might be doing so as the unofficial host of the Final Four with the triumph.

Butler was the aggressor all night against top-seeded Syracuse and out-worked the Orangemen over large expanses of the contest. The Bulldogs put Syracuse on the defensive from the start in building 10-point halftime lead. Butler’s greatness and toughness came to light after Syracuse had stormed back to take 54-50. Butler showed bulldog determination, scoring the next 11 points and the Orangemen’s tank went to empty. No wonder these Bulldogs are 22-7 ATS as underdogs.

Kansas State overcame more disappointments than a Cubs fan Thursday night in finally getting Xavier to succumb 101-96 in double overtime, with backers earning surprising Push. The Musketeers were like a cat, with Jordan Crawford and Terrell Holloway draining big shot after big shot to keep Xavier coming back time after time.

The Wildcats had guards that could also perform in the clutch as Jacob Pullen and Denis Clemente totaled 53 points (compared to Xavier duo that had 58). When the K-State got to the century mark in points, Xavier’s nine lives had expired and the Wildcats are 12-1 ATS after one or more Over’s this season.

Bookmaker.com has Kansas State as four-point favorites to advance to Final Four for the first time since 1964. The Wildcats are 18-6-1 ATS as a favorite this season, but will have less 40 hours to rest and recover from a taxing contest with so much at stake. With the total at 134.5, K-State is 16-6 OVER away from Manhattan having won four of their last five games.
Butler would prefer to change the pace of this matchup, since they are 5-12 ATS when the total is 130 to 139.5.The Bulldogs are 15-6 OVER in road games after allowing 60 points or less in two straight contests, winning by 8.1 points a game.

This West finale starts just after 4:30 Eastern and in the last 21 years, only twice has a 5-seed faced a 2-seed in this round and each time the lower seed pulled the outright upset. (In 2005 and 1996)

Top seeds picked to previal out West

The chalk followed suit in the West Regional with top seeds Syracuse and Kansas State both victorious. Each are a solid betting choice to meet in an Elite 8 matchup on Saturday, yet both will encounter clubs that are NCAA tournament tested and carrying a strong belief this is their chance to shine in what has been unpredictable tournament in 2010.

Syracuse vs Butler

The status of Arinze Onuaku is presently listed as doubtful, which doesn’t help the Orangemen (30-4, 21-9 ATS) as they look to move on in the tournament. Onuaku is a contributing scorer near the basket and though a mediocre free throw shooter, he still draws fouls against the opposing team and is exceptional rebounder in their 2-3 zone. His ability to control the glass has set up Syracuse to push the ball offensively, often finding the right player in motion towards the basket with a sharp, on-target pass they led to easier baskets for Orange shooters. Syracuse is 13-3 ATS in all tournament games over the last two seasons.

That leaves more of the burden to fall on Wesley Johnson and Rick Jackson specifically. Johnson has to rebound a little more and can’t cheat out quite as much on misfires from the opposition. Jackson in turn has to be the Windex-man (long-time Dick Vitale favorite saying) and has to work a little harder on the offensive glass for put-backs. Off their high-octane effort against Gonzaga (87-65), Syracuse is 8-1 ATS in road games after a blowout win by 20 points or more.

Butler (30-4, 12-20 ATS) is a six-point underdog, with total of 138.5 at Bookmaker.com. The Bulldogs are playing with a real swagger; a 22-game win streak will do that for team. In spite of their phenomenal success, Butler was often mentioned as a play against team in both the first two games in the tournament and they played unafraid even the face of real adversity. F-C Matt Howard sat a good portion of the second half with four fouls against Murray State, yet the Bulldogs actually built a lead during that time, spreading the floor offensively and getting points from a variety of scorers including versatile Gordon Hayward and Shelvin Mack.

Butler is ordinary three-point team (34.1 percent), nonetheless has players capable of tickling the twine and is 21-7 ATS as an underdog.

Xavier vs. Kansas State

The Wildcats from Manhattan are looking better all the time. Kansas State (28-7, 21-9 ATS) was considered a darkhorse for a top seed until losing twice in final week of the regular season. However, obstacles might be falling to the wayside for the Wildcats to be considered a real championship club. Their nemesis Kansas is flushed; Syracuse and West Virginia have either ailing starters or have lost them all together. The Cinderella’s are presumed to strike midnight before long, leaving only a few worthy contenders.

Stellar guard play is a must to survive and advance in March and coach Frank Martin just might have the most dynamic duo since Batman and Robin. Jacob Pullen or Denis Clemente are both capable of boiling over and scoring points at per minute clip. In the painted area, Curtis Kelly and Jamar Samuels can both produce big nights, particularly if they're converting offensive rebounds into stick-backs. K-State is a 4.5-point favorite and is 18-6 ATS this season when bestowed with the honor.

Xavier’s is nobody’s fool, being only just one of two teams to make it to the Sweet 16 in each of the last three seasons along with Michigan State. Forget the talk of the Musketeers not being elite program. "I don't feel like we're a mid-major at all," said senior Jason Love, having been a part of this ride. "You look at our schedule and we play some of the best teams in the country."

Xavier (26-8, 22-11 ATS) is 8-1 ATS in a NCAA tournament games over the last three seasons and holds opposing teams to 40.7 percent shooting, yet are explosive enough to average almost 80 (79.3) points a contest. Sophomore guard Jordan Crawford led the A-10 in scoring with 19.6 points a game and has a complete package, being able find open teammates, defend effectively, and deliver big baskets when his team needs them throughout a game. Xavier is 14-3 ATS having won two of their last three games this campaign.

Two seeds are 18-5 SU taking on six seeds, with average winning margin 5.6 PPG.

Sensational Saturday

Came back around with 2-1 day and look to deliver even better results for today. We start with 25-4 ATS system in the NBA and move on to CBB totals trend that matches the taste of both teams. I’ve had a very good start in the tournament and offer my best play for today. Good Luck

What I thought today- Ran out of time, yesterday, hopefully today. (For those that get my email plays, please note I have Butler/MS OVER, but at last night's 128 not today's 132).

3Daily Winners is – No.1 the last 10 days at Cappers Monitor
3Daily Winners is - No.1 in College Basketball for the season (units) at Cappers Monitor
3Daily Winners is – 135-87 (60.8 percent) since Jan. 24 in CBB

I have a guest blogger named Rick who is frequent reader and very knowledgable bettor who is attending the games in Milwaukee and supplies this report.

I was impressed with Xavier...they're a well-coached team...everytime Minneoata made a run at them...they turned it up on both ends of the court and were very focused.

I know a team can look great playing a very low- seed, but Pitt showed the best combination of inside-outside game, coaching, and "going for the kill" when they had to. Jamie Dixon doesn't have a Final 4 on his resume, but he cosistently does a great job.

Georgia Tech raced off to a 6-0 lead...OSU threw a variety of different defenses, and the Yellow Jackets took some time to adjust, and they eventually did.... for the win. I hope they can adjust to these match-ups more quickly. They had the lead and had some insurance, but in a later round game, they might not have that luxury!

Ohio St. ws up 13-3 in no time, but they let UCSB back in the game. They dominated the boards,and had seven blocks at halftime. They have a lot of outside firepower, with a lot of great shooters, but I worry about their lack of consistent inside, offensive play, and some of the starters getting in foul trouble. I see Lauderdale as the key...he had a big spurt in the second half. and needs to keep that intensity, and to stay out of foul trouble. Pitt kept playing intense with an early lead, but Ohio St., in my opinion..kind of let-up...they need to stick to the game plan for 40 minutes.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Play On road teams like Toronto scoring 103 or more points game on the season, after trailing in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half. In the previous five years this system is 25-4 ATS, 86.2 percent.

Free Basketball Trend - 2) Double angle from article below - Murray State is 10-0 OVER after making 53 percent or less of their free throws and Butler 10-1 OVER in all neutral court games over the last three seasons.

Free Basketball Pick -3) I’m going as well as anyone in the NCAA’s at 7-1-1 and my best play today is St. Mary’s. (To receive all my plays for FREE signup for mailing list to the right)

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Round 2 Afternoon Wagering Options

The afternoon session of the NCAA Tournament this Saturday has a wide variety of wagering options and games that could turn into real head-scratchers. Lower seeds Murray State, Ohio U., Washington and Old Dominion could make a mess of the most people brackets, if they could pull off yet another upset. Here is a preview of what the afternoon might look like for sports bettors.

Murray State vs. Butler 3:20E

The Racers proved oddsmakers correct in assigning them a low number as underdog against Vanderbilt with their thrilling one point buzz-beater against the Commodores. Few teams in college basketball are more balanced than Murray State (31-4, 16-13-1 ATS), with six players capable of scoring in double figures every game, making defenses having to guard everyone evenly. The Racers have run out to 22-1 SU streak and are adept this season to varying paces with 16-4 ATS mark in away games after two or more Under’s.

Butler (29-4, 14-19 ATS) passed their first test with bulldog determination, routing UTEP with huge 50-26 second half. The Bulldogs employed a great strategy against the Miners as explained by their head coach. "One of the things we try to do is we try to talk about not hitting home runs, it's single, single, single, single, one possession at a time, and we felt like if we played that way today we would be able to do some things," Stevens said of staying patient. Butler is 6-1 ATS the last seven times they have been a favorite of eight points or less.

Bookmaker.com has the Bulldogs as five-point faves with total of 128.5, but they are 3-10 ATS after they’ve covered the spread this season. Watch the total on this match, with Murray State 10-0 OVER after making 53 percent or less of their free throws and Butler 10-1 OVER in all neutral court games over the last three seasons. No. 13 seeds that score 70 or more points, concede less than 66 PPG and get less than 48 percent of points from the backcourt are 3-0 SU against five seeds. (Thanks, Bracketscience.com)

Ohio U vs. Tennessee 3:35E

Tennessee’s defense had problems with how San Diego State executed their offense in the paint area, in Saturday’s second round matinee, they will have to defend 25 or more feet to move on to Sweet 16. Ohio U. (22-14, 19-12 ATS) was the first 14th-seed to engineer an upset in four years, shooting 58.2 percent against Georgetown and draining 13-three balls. The dangerous duo of Armon Bassett and D.J. Cooper accounted for 55 points, making the Bobcats a tough out and they are 10-2 ATS after scoring 80 points or more this season.

Tennessee (26-8, 13-17-1 ATS) is an 8.5-point favorite and will have to use their size to move Ohio U. around and force feed the ball down low to Wayne Chism. After struggling mightily, J.P. Prince and Scotty Hopson are showing signs of finding their offense, which would be important since they are 1-8 ATS away from Knoxville after playing a game where both teams score 65 points or less.

Ohio U. is 6-0 ATS in March and 12-1 ATS in last 13 tries and 14th-seeds taking on six-seeds lose by 5.1 PPG on average.

Northern Iowa vs. Kansas 5:40E

Kansas doesn’t play in many games with a total of 126.5. That is the second lowest number that has popped up on their plate the last three seasons. The Jayhawks (33-2, 14-17-1 ATS) has the skill level to alter their pace, as they are 12-6-3 ATS when the total is 136 or less the past three years. Kansas has the size and quickness edge to contain Northern Iowa (29-4, 22-10 ATS) in the paint and they are 9-1 ATS in the second round of the NCAA tournament.

The Panthers desperately have to control tempo, or they will get blown out. Northern Iowa has veteran experience and isn’t going to find the moment too big facing the nation’s No. 1 team. Against UNLV, after having issues with the Rebels press, the Panthers settled in and played their game. UNI is an 11.5-point underdog and is 11-4 ATS after four or more consecutive wins this season. They will need eight or more three-point plays to hang with Kansas and stay out of foul trouble in the frontcourt. Nine seeds that average less than 73 points and have scoring margin differential of less than seven points, are 0-46 SU facing a top seed.

Old Dominion vs. Baylor 5:45E

Nobody is going to mistake Waco, TX as a basketball mecca, nevertheless Baylor (25-7, 16-9 ATS) is creating a stir with this talented bunch. The Bears wrestled with a hearty Sam Houston State bunch, winning by nine as 10.5-point chalk, but when it is your first NCAA victory in six decades, you don’t quibble about details. Baylor was led by Ekpe Udoh (20 points, 13 rebounds), who recorded his 15th double-double and they are 10-2 ATS having won four of their last five games this season.

Old Dominion (27-8, 13-17-1 ATS) followed the old tale of – Cut off the head and the body will die. The Monarchs prevented Notre Dame’s Luke Hanargody from scoring until the final minute and upset the Fighting Irish. Old Dominion played outstanding perimeter defense as the normally reliable Irish shooters were 6-26 from behind the three-point line and they helped expertly when the higher seed tried to dribble and drive. "I guess I'm kind of old school. I think we can guard people and stop them," coach Blaine Taylor said. The Monarchs have six straight wins (4-2 ATS) and are 4.5-point underdogs. ODU however is 0-6 ATS after six or more consecutive triumphs and 3 vs. 11 matchups have the higher seed winning by 8.8 PPG and if that team was not in the tournament the prior year, they are 12-0 SU.

Washington vs. New Mexico 5:50E

The final contest of the afternoon session should be frantic affair. Both teams score in the mid to upper 70’s and stingy defense is the not the strength of either club. Washington (25-9, 15-18 ATS) moved ahead thanks to Quincy Pondexter’s efforts, making two clutch baskets in the final 34 seconds, including the game winner with 1.7 seconds left. The Huskies are now 13-2 and 10-4 ATS since lost weekend in L.A. in Pac-10 action.

New Mexico (30-4, 18-14-1 ATS) looked nervous in opening contest against Montana and played well only is spurts, winning 52-47 as nine-point favorites. The Lobos don't have a starter taller than 6’8, yet they have a number of players that can fill the basket, including Mountain West Conference Player of the Year, forward Darington Hobson. The Lobos are 14-5 ATS after a combined score of 125 points or less and the number three seed is a 1.5-point underdog to Pac-10 post season champions.

Line makers tell the score for opening NCAA games

There is this person I’ve known for years, who has a regular full-time teaching job at a smaller university who is essentially a semi-professional gambler. Kendall used to bet with bookies, but once betting on the internet became an option, he moved that direction and has stayed there. His method of betting college basketball couldn’t be any more simplistic; he watches games and breaks down the line.

By breaking the line, this refers the side and total of a contest to see what the outcome should be. For example here is what the line makers are saying about the outcome of the first eight games of the NCAA Tournament. The numbers are from Bookmaker.com and because of how they fall, we can’t land exactly on the correct number and get as close as possible.

Villanova -18, 147.5 - Projected score Villanova 83-65
Richmond -2, 134.5 - Projected score Richmond 68-66
Baylor -10.5, 150 - Projected score Baylor 80-70
Notre Dame -2.5, 121.5 - Projected score Notre Dame 62-59
BYU -4.5, 146.5 - Projected score BYU 75-71
Kansas State -16, 148.5 - Projected score Kansas State 82-66
Vanderbilt -3, 141 - Projected score Vanderbilt 72-69
Butler -2.5, 130.5 - Projected score Butler 66-64

This is what the oddsmakers are telling us what the outcome of each game should be, but is this what will occur? I asked Kendall his thoughts.

“Villanova automatically is favored by 12 points because of the conference differential between the Big East and the Northeast (Conference).” He went on to add the Wildcats guards are 10 points better those from Robert Morris, but Colonials defense is better, which is two points in their favor. Robert Morris was crushed by Big East teams Syracuse (by 40) and Pittsburgh (by 24) but played better down the stretch with 5-2 record compared to Nova’s 2-5 stutter. He explained Robert Morris would be a better play with the points if they did a better job on protecting the ball per possession.

In the other South Region matchup, Kendall sees value in Richmond over St. Mary’s. “The conference difference is worth three points in Richmond’s favor, which is the difference in the game.” He tells me St. Mary’s lacks the foot speed to contain the Spiders point guard Kevin Anderson and he also likes David Gonzalvez, which gives them three point edge over St. Mary’s in the backcourt. Because Omar Samhan and Ben Allen are both taller that what Richmond can counter with, he gives the Gaels an edge, however because of how well the Spiders can defend in help defense, the difference is negated to smaller portion. Kendall likes Richmond to win and cover.

Kendall sees window of opportunity with Sam Houston State with the points over Baylor. “Sam Houston State is your classic upset specialist. They average nine 3’s a game and convert at high rate (37.8 percent). They average 80 points a game (79.9) and are +5 rebound margin. Double digit points worthwhile.” I asked Kendall about Baylor’s outstanding numbers on offense and defense and wasn’t their talent superior? He responded this way. “The Big Eight is 10 points better than the Southland. If this is accurate and I believe it is, why are the Bears only favored by almost the same number? This is high risk, high reward bet.”

The Notre Dame and Old Dominion side is seen as correct by Kendall. However he likes the total. “People are watching Notre Dame thinking this is Big East game, it’s not. ODU will force tempo and Irish didn’t forget how to play faster if needed. The Monarchs don’t shoot well, but they really pound the glass and will get several put backs. With total coming down, great value in game I see in the low 130’s.”

The Kansas State and BYU’s matchups are “spot on” accordingly to this sports bettor; however he sees opportunity in the other two afternoon clashes.

“I’m playing Murray State three ways, with the points, first half and on the money line. Oddsmakers subtly sneaked in a number on Murray State and nobody noticed but sharps. My information is most have laid low, making smaller wagers, hoping the public will back SEC team late, which will this more attractive (wager) closer to game time. Think about it, SEC vs Ohio Valley, three points, are you kidding!”

Last is Butler and UTEP. ‘I’ve watched both teams play at least eight times and at different points of the season. Butler is smarter club, but that Georgetown loss in New York told a tale. If (Derrick) Caracter gets Matt Howard in foul trouble early, where does Butler turn? Caracter would have his way and UTEP really creates problems with their complete defense, not just press (39 percent). If exhausted Miners team had beaten Houston, at worst they should have been ninth seed. As much as I enjoy watch Butler, UTEP with the points is play.”

CBB Tournament Wagering Blog

Thursday March 11 8:24 AM

Disappointments – Colorado-Missouri-Louisville

Colorado was a very popular play yesterday morning among handicappers, having won three in a row, the last against the Red Raiders in convincing fashion and Texas Tech riding a six-game losing streak. I got emails from people asking if this was good play and my response was I don’t like betting conference tournament games after the teams had just met. This usually means both are mediocre, given they would play right away again and anything is possible. The Buffaloes were beaten soundly by Texas Tech, who worked the ball inside which led to 30 free throw attempts (23 made) and outrebounding the Buffs by 10.

A 12th seed defeated a fifth-seed for the second time in the history of the Big 12 tournament as Nebraska knocked off defending tournament champion Missouri. The Tigers were clearly not ready to play after being thumped by Kansas Saturday by 21 and carried the emotional baggage like luggage to Kansas City. The Cornhuskers, a 10.5-point underdog, followed many of the same principles the Jayhawks provided on tape. The Missouri press is beatable on the backside if you go to the rim once you cross midcourt and shot 58.8 percent in winning by 15.

It was typical of Louisville all year and they got what they deserved in upset by Cincinnati. The Bearcats play physical and coach Rick Pitino knew what it would take to down Cincinnati. "The point of emphasis tonight was to rebound the basketball," Pitino said. "We rebound, we win. We knew that. We didn't, we lost. We go home early. Wasted a lot of boosters' money." The Cardinals were dominated on the glass 46-29 and those holding Cards -6 tickets also felt cheated.

Surprises – Notre Dame – Montana

Notre Dame coach Mike Brey deserves all the credit in the world for his team’s remarkable turnaround. Luke Harangody went down in loss to Seton Hall on Feb. 11 and reports later surfaced his college career might be finished. Coach Brey convinced his squad this was now their team and Tory Jackson and Tim Abromaitis in particular took over as leaders and the rest of the players followed their lead in winning last four games, including taking down a pair of ranked clubs.

Harangody’s knee heeled faster than what many believed and he’s returned, coming off the bench. Coach Brey stayed true to the players that realistically have given Notre Dame the chance to be in NCAA Tournament and kept them as starters. The Irish started slowly in trailing 11-2 to Seton Hall and Brey subbed in Harangody and his energy and moves around the basket helped Notre Dame build 28-21 halftime lead. Brey went back to usual starters and they built a 14-point lead and Brey was wise (in my opinion) to let the starting five work thru brief Pirates run that cut the lead to nine and only brought in the former Big East player of the year after Notre Dame has reestablished control.

If you had Weber State -3.5 on their home floor, leading 40-20 at the half, you could be excused from turning away from ESPN2 and the Big Sky championship to check out another game. One problem occurred with that logic, Anthony Johnson of Montana. Johnson exploded for career high 42 points, an amazing 34 in the second half, proving why they call it March Madness, as the Grizzlies stormed all the way back to steal 66-65 win and NCAA bid. What a performance!

Wednesday March 10 7:00AM

You had to be impressed with how Butler just overwhelmed Wright State 70-45 as seven-point home favorites. That win was the Bulldogs 20th in a row, the longest streak in the country, having last lost at UAB on Dec. 22, 67-57. Butler should be a fifth seed (a sixth at worst) and is a definite threat to win a game or two in the tournament, as long as they stay away from super athletic teams.

It’s not my job when to tell coach Jim Calhoun when to retire, but given the non-performance his team put up against St. John’s in being routed 73-51 as 4.5-point favorites, something has to change. Calhoun continues to be plagued by health issues and Connecticut finished the season 6-12 and 7-11 ATS, which made the talk of them even being considered for NCAA Tournament foolish. Maybe progression will just solve the Huskies problems, as seniors Stanley Robinson, Jerome Dyson and Gavin Edwards provided nothing in terms of leadership for their team and their careers are almost completed.

North Texas won the Sun Belt title and automatic bid, by squeaking by Troy 66-63. The Mean Green has four 20-win seasons and can really motor up and down the floor. They could present a challenge to wrong NCAA tourney opponent, as they are 12-6 (10-5-1 ATS) away from Denton and 7-1-1 ATS as a road underdog. The biggest concern is 43.1 field goal percentage defense and sometimes how easily opponents get inside on them for easy buckets.

Looking to do better than UConn

Ended up .500 for yesterday and come back with butt-kicking NBA system that is 23-4. Our Top Trend and Free Play from percolating Kendall are from the same game in the Horizon Final. Good Luck

What I’m thinking today- Starting to get a trifle testy watching conference tournaments wagers get flushed (three in the last three days), with my teams clanking free throws in the last four minutes.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Play On underdogs like the Heat revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 30 points or more, playing only their second game in five days. This sensational system is 23-4 ATS, 85.2 percent.

Free Basketball Trend - 2) Wright State is 1-10 ATS in a road game where the total is 120 to 129.5 over the last two seasons.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Kendall’s is 29-12 the last nine days and has Butler to win and cover at home against the Blue Raiders.

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Tuesday's bids earned for Big Dance

A trio of invites will be doled out on Tuesday evening for three more conference championships. All three winners are guaranteed spots, however those on the bubble have a rooting interesting in Butler winning, since a Wright State upset in the Horizon League means one fewer spot for them, with the Bulldogs already assured of being invited to the party. Here are the three wagering previews.

Horizon League Championship 9:00E ESPN

Regular season champion Butler (27-4, 12-19 ATS) was dumped in last year Horizon championship game by Cleveland State and went on to lose to LSU in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament. The Bulldogs are focused on not seeing history repeat itself.

Butler has yet to lose in league play with 19-0 record (7-12 ATS) and wants to close the deal. “It’s a little bit of unfinished business - you feel like that when you get all that way and then you don’t finish the deal,” Bulldogs forward Matt Howard said. “It’s the same thing this year. We’re focused, we want to win. We don’t feel comfortable with where we are.” The Bulldogs have won 19 in a row, but are 7-14 ATS after two or more consecutive wins this season.

Wright State (20-11, 11-15-3 ATS) ended up being the second place team in the Horizon with 12-6 regular season mark. The Blue Raiders demolished Detroit 69-50 in their only game in this tournament. Wright State has a strong backcourt with Vaughn Duggins and Todd Brown averaging over 27 points per game, however they have lost six straight to Butler (2-4 ATS).
Butler is a seven-point favorite at Hinkle Fieldhouse according to Bookmaker.com and they are 14-0 SU (5-9 ATS) in their own building this season. Wright State is 3-11 ATS in road lined games this season; however they are 9-0 ATS in all tournament games over the last two seasons.

Sun Belt Championship 7:00E ESPN2

A number of conference tournaments have gone according to form and the Sun Belt is another with the top two seeds matching up. Troy (20-11, 13-14-1 ATS) is the No.1 seed and played like it last night winning 54-48, being a surprising underdog five-point underdog to No. 4 Western Kentucky. The Trojans have four players averaging double digits led by Brandon Hazzard’s 16.6 points per game. Troy averages 75.5 points a contest and is 5-0-1 ATS in last six outings.

North Texas (23-8, 16-7-1 ATS) can also change the numbers on the scoreboard quickly, totaling 74.5 PPG and they have four players of their own that average 10 or more points a contest. The Mean Green are 14-6 ATS against conference foes and are 11-6 and 9-5-1 ATS away from Denton.

North Texas won and covered at Troy 75-72 as 5.5-point underdogs back in January, however the teams have split four games the last couple of years. Both squads have winning spread records at neutral site locations, with the Mean Green exceptional at 17-5 ATS and oddsmakers have this going to the wire at a Pick.

Summit League Championship 9:00E ESPN2

The third championship conflict of the night also features a 1 vs. 2 matchup. Regular season champ Oakland (25-8, 5-8 ATS) rolls into the title game on a 10-game winning streak, having won and covered both Summit tourney games. The Golden Grizzlies have four different players that are capable scorers, each scoring 10 or more points, however their best player is center Keith Benson, averaging 17.3 PPG and 10.3 rebounds. Guard Johnathon Jones hands out 6.4 assists per game, while averaging over 12 PPG. Oakland is 12-7 SU away from home.

No.2 IUPUI (24-9, 8-6 ATS) has three individuals that score as well as any trio in the country. Robert Glenn, Alex Young and Leroy Nobles average 51.3 points a contest, with each providing a different skill that limits what opposing teams can do to shutdown at least one of them off. The Jaguars have a six game winning streak themselves and are 13-7 SU on the road.

These teams split a pair of games in 2010 and Oakland holds the all-time edge 19-14. Oakland made the tournament in 2005 and has lost twice in the Summit championship game, including last year. IUPUI won the tournament in 2003 and has also lost two times in the league title tilt. The opening number on this matchup is a Pick.

Learn from the power of the Bracket Buster

This upcoming college basketball weekend is a great time to be razor sharp on a number of teams that will make the NCAA Tournament field of 65 in about a month. Several of the squads on Bracket Buster weekend will be in the tournament or at least be playing post-season basketball somewhere and to have a working knowledge of them and their style of play and talent is invaluable for picking winners. Among the nuggets uncovered for Bracket Buster contests are road teams win only 38 percent, yet cover 56.4 percent of the time (149-115-9). Be sure to sift thru the complete board since teams catching 10 or more points are on 23-11 ATS move. Here is a look at four of the key televised games and much more available information.

Friday, Feb.19

Old Dominion at Northern Iowa (-3, 113) 7:00E ESPN2

Bracket Buster starts on Friday, with a delectable Colonial vs. Missouri Valley matchup. Old Dominion (21-7, 9-14-1 ATS) is 8-4 and 2-6 ATS in non-conference action and is one of the better defensive teams in the land, allowing 55.8 points a game. Kent Bazemore has taken over running the Monarchs at guard and his concern for ball security and defensive mindset has ODU living up to preseason expectations in the CAA. This should be a low scoring half court contest and the Monarchs are 0-6 ATS in road games when they score 60 or less points in a game this season.

Center Jordan Eglseder is the most likely candidate to be the Valley Player of the Year; however he’s been suspended for three games and will not play in this contest. As witnessed in recent contest against Southern Illinois, Northern Iowa (23-3, 17-8 ATS) has to have Adam Koch at crunch time. The senior has size at 6’9, making him difficult to defend within 10 feet of the rim as power forward against comparable teams and Koch has a quality array of ways to score either near the bucket or outside. The Panthers have complete control of the conference; nonetheless a win against a similar club, with similar circumstances would be a boost to confidence before the Big Dance. UNI is 10-3 ATS versus teams outscoring opponents by four or points a game this season.

Saturday, Feb. 20

Siena at Butler (-7.5, 141) 11:00E ESPN2

Veteran basketball observers will tell you the difference between Butler and Siena is location, Indianapolis and historic Hinkle Fieldhouse vs. Loudonville, N.Y. The Saints (22-5, 14-9-2 ATS) have strung together four straight 20-win seasons and earns nationally televised cable contest against ranked opponent. "It's a great opportunity for our program," Siena coach Fran McCaffery said. The Saints have a great deal of depth, but pay particular attention to forward Alex Franklin and guard Ronald Moore. Siena is 17-7 ATS in road games after a trio of favorite roles.

It’s a rare occasion when Butler (24-4, 11-17 ATS) is out of Horizon League play in televised tilt with the opposing team having more to gain with a victory. That is the case in this matchup, with the Bulldogs the hunted. A solid win against a team like Siena carries positives, as they have good RPI numbers and are highly thought of in basketball circles, which could improve Butler’s seeding in the middle of March. If you have missed the Bulldogs, keep a watchful eye on forward Gordon Hayward (NBA potential), Matt Howard and point guard Shelvin Mack who runs the show. The marquee matchup of Bracket Buster Saturday has Butler 12-0 at home with 4-8 ATS mark.

Louisiana Tech at Northeastern (-8.5, 135) 1:00E ESPN2

If Louisiana Tech (20-6, 11-9-1 ATS) could have substituted teams from New Mexico off the schedule (0-3), they would be having an even better season. Expectations were low coming in the 2009-10 campaign, with the Bulldogs presumed to be a run of the mill WAC club. A strong senior core blended with the 6’7 redshirt sophomore power forward Olu Ashaolu, has transformed a team nobody knew about into a WAC conference contender, garnering national attention with a contest like this. Home attendance is the highest in four years in Ruston and they’ve drawn a record crowd this season in their three-year old building. Now Louisiana Tech has to go prove themselves and is 14-5 ATS as a road underdog or pick over the last two seasons.

The old story of “you don’t learn anything by losing” doesn’t apply to Northeastern. As they prepared for seventh place tournament game in Hawaii on Dec. 25, the Huskies stood at 2-7 and their season was unraveling to say the least. Northeastern (18-9, 15-10-1 ATS) defeated SMU 73-62 and exploded from that point, with 16-2 and 13-5 ATS record. "I think this team learned from losing," coach Bill Coen said. "It was more a mental thing. We decided to take a little more pride in what we were doing on defense." The Huskies are 11-4 ATS after allowing 65 points or less in consecutive games this season.

New Mexico State at Pacific (-5, 140.5)10:00E ESPNU

It was a sluggish start to the season for New Mexico State at 3-6 for good reason. Forwards Wendell McKines and Troy Gillenwater were ineligible academically to start the year and McKines was the first to return, followed by Gillenwater and now the Aggies are fighting for WAC championship, having won 13 of last 16 (9-3-1 ATS). New Mexico State (16-9, 11-8-1 ATS) likes to play all 94 feet in scoring 77.9 points per game and still has three challenging road encounters, including this contest. The Aggies are 7-2-1 ATS after having won three of their last four games this season.

This was supposed to be the year Pacific (17-8, 11-13 ATS) became just another club in the Big West after losing its top four point producers from last season. When it comes to doing the job, these Tigers still have plenty of bite, tied for the lead in the conference. Pacific is not built to play the up and down game like the Aggies (average total score about 125 points) and they will have to control the tempo at the Spanos Center.

The teams have played a number of common opponents this season -- St. Mary's, Cal State Fullerton, Pepperdine, Nevada, Fresno State and San Jose State. Pacific is 4-2 and 2-4 ATS against those teams and N.M. State is 4-4 and 3-5 ATS. The Tigers are 27-15 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less or pick.

Jimmy V Classic offers you ways to help

Tonight on ESPN, the worldwide leader will spread some good will. There are two basketball games to watch from Madison Square Garden offering wagering options on the side and total. In addition, you can watch the stimulating Jim Valvano speech yet again and have it be a reminder that in some way cancer either has or will touch all of our lives. Enjoy the games and enjoy the speech and give a little if you can afford to towards cancer research.

Butler vs Georgetown 7:00 E

Remember the Cinderella story of George Mason’s Final Four appearance, another such tale could be brewing in Indiana. The Butler Bulldogs (6-2, 3-5 ATS) are no longer just a cute team that gets padded on the head for the old college try. Forward Gordon Hayward has NBA ability, and Shelvin Mack and Matt Howard are high-level college players. Coach Brad Stevens is not far from a bigger house in a high rent conference. Watch this team defense, they give nothing away. Butler is 20-10 ATS in non-conference games over the last three seasons.

No. 15 Georgetown (6-0, 1-1 ATS) arrives in the Big Apple without a loss, playing a schedule that has helped build momentum, but not tested the Hoyas. Georgetown’s main asset is Greg Monroe as big man, who doesn’t necessarily dominate, but is skilled in all facets of basketball, making him the ideal player for coach John Thompson III system. It will be curious to watch how guards Austin Freeman and Chris Wright play against Butler, as neither has played consistently to this juncture. Having faced very beatable opponents, the Hoyas are 11-2 ATS away from home after four straight wins by 10 points or more.

Bookmaker.com has Butler as 2.5-point underdogs with total of 127. The 22nd ranked Bulldogs have lost eight of their last nine against Top-25 opponents and can’t have Howard get in foul trouble like he did in 76 Classic, where they lost suffered both losses. Butler is only 1-6 ATS in last seven neutral site contests.

Without question Georgetown is the more athletic squad and they will depend on their defense that is allowing 53.2 points per game, mostly against inferior competition. The Hoyas are 5-14 ATS after playing a game as favorite and 3-13 ATS after they allowed opposing team to shoot 33 percent or less over the last three seasons.

Indiana vs Pittsburgh 9:20E

Approximately 20 minutes after the first game is completed, the Hoosiers and Panthers will do battle. Indiana (3-4 SU & ATS) had believed they were going to be a great deal better this season after just six victories a year ago, however, against better competition that has not been the case thus far. The Hoosiers are far more talented than a season ago, but extremely young. Verdell Jones III has played the best of the sophomores and freshman Maurice Creek has been a dependable scorer, along with Bobby Capobianco at the four-slot. The Hoosiers lost their last game 80-68 at home against Maryland, shooting a season low 32.9 percent. They do have players with quickness, averaging nine steals a game and are 5-1 ATS after losing by 10 or more points at home.

Dating back to 2001, Pittsburgh (7-1, 2-4-1 ATS) has always had the linkage of two to three returning players, which has led to Panthers owning the most victories in the Big East in the last five years, until now. Guard Brad Wanamaker is carrying his share of the scoring load and 6’10 Gary McGhee has been a force in the paint. The Panthers still play physical brand of basketball, averaging 24 free throws a game (only 63.4 percent made) and have a +7 rebound margin. Pitt is 8-1 ATS versus teams who average nine or more steals a game over the last three seasons.

Pittsburgh is a 7.5-point favorite, with a total of 132 and is meager 8-19 ATS playing against a marginal losing team with win percentage of 40 to 50 percent.

Jockeying for Position in College Hoops

The final week to two weeks before conferences start playing their tournaments can be full of land mines. A situation to watch for are teams that have just achieved a meaningful goal or hit a milestone. Those teams can be a great “go against” in their next game as many times it is a letdown situation. A team winning its 20th game or clinching a conference title should be noted. Drake last year exceeded their goals in winning the Missouri Valley Conference title. Their next game was at home against Bradley as a 6.5-point favorite. They lost outright.

You should know if a team is locked into a certain seed or within a range of their conference standings and have really nothing to gain in their final few conference games prior to their tournament. Be careful with those squads as the coach might want to rest key players or be more concerned in preparation for the tournament than for individual games.

What teams took a tumble this past week or at least lost some of their shine? Let’s start with Davidson. Their foe, Butler, became the only real victor who gained anything in Bracket Busters weekend. The Bulldogs had just lost two games back to back in the Horizon League, one of them at home, and were looking vulnerable. Butler, a very young team, but one who plays tremendous defense with intensity handled the more experienced Davidson squad rather easily.

Stephen Curry did play for Davidson but stated he was not 100%. Davidson’s chance of securing an at-large bid was already in jeopardy as they had lost at home to The Citadel by 16 points within the week. Curry missed that game but a Tourney team should never lose to The Citadel at home, especially by double-digits.

A case could be made that St. Mary’s also got a huge up-tick in their stock beating Utah State, and covering the point spread I should add. However, with an RPI of 53 and playing in the 15th ranked West Coast Conference, it is the NIT unless they beat the #1 WCC Tournament seed, Gonzaga, in the conference tournament. If that happens, the conspiracy theorists will come out of the woodwork saying the Zags loss was orchestrated by the conference to get the extra money they earn by having an additional team in the big dance.

Going into the weekend there was talk the Mountain West could get four teams into the NCAA’s: BYU, Utah, UNLV, and San Diego State. UNLV beat BYU over the weekend but San Diego State got mauled by New Mexico on the road losing by 26 points. The Aztecs have a slightly higher RPI than the Rebels, 47th to 50th, and did beat UNLV in OT in Vegas. UNLV also suffered from losing three road games to second tier Mountain West schools. Two big games on the road for UNLV are Utah on 2/25 and San Diego State on 3/7.

The Ohio Valley Conference only accepts the top eight of its ten schools into their tournament. This coming Saturday there is a true elimination game as the two teams tied for 8th in the conference with 5-12 records meet each other in their final regular season game. Tennessee Tech travels to Jacksonville State with the winner grabbing the #8 seed for the tourney and the loser calling it a season. Tennessee Tech did lose at home to Jacksonville St. earlier this year, 82-66.

The Pac-10 is a conference that has byes going to the top 6 teams in round 1 of their tourney. The bottom four schools have to play an extra game and thus will have to be victorious in four straight games without any rest to win their tournament, an almost impossible accomplishment. The two teams with the best chance of getting the #6 seed are USC and Oregon State, which incidentally meet on their last P-10 game.

UCLA is showing some deficiencies. They dropped their Saturday home game to Washington St. and have now lost three of their past four. Believe it or not, the Bruin defense has been performing terribly allowing a defensive efficiency rating of over 116 in those past four games. Their RPI has slipped to #36 and have a game at Cal Saturday, #32, which will help determine conference tourney seeding.

In the Big 12, the first four teams get a bye. Right now, there are four squads fighting for that #4 seed: Texas, Kansas St., Oklahoma St., and Nebraska. It is always important to be aware of any added motivation a team might have in a game.

The bottom two teams don’t go to the Atlantic 10 Tournament. These should be George Washington and Fordham. Even though it appears Fordham long ago gave up on the season, 4-18 ATS, their last game of the season is at home against St. Joseph’s and it could be a spot to consider the Rams.

St. Joseph had high aspirations going into the season, some people picked them to win the A-10. They looked good winning nine of ten games after the beginning of the year but have stumbled losing four in a row. The Hawks play cross-town rival Temple the Thursday before their final scheduled game against Fordham on Saturday, 3/7. The St. Joe bench is the next to shortest in the D-1 with only 14.96% of all minutes not coming from their starters. With this being Fordham’s final game of the year and St. Joseph possibly resting players who are exhausted from a long season, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Rams cover the point spread.

The Big Ten grants first-round byes to the top five finishers. The middle of the pack, Penn St., Wisconsin, Minnesota, Ohio St., and Michigan, are fighting for seeds 4 and 5. All five of these are also on or very close to the bubble.

Assuming Memphis wins the Conference USA Tournament, they will probably be the only league representative in the NCAA Tournament. However, if #39 RPI UAB beats Memphis at home this Thursday and runs the table, they would probably make it the final cut. The Blazers looked impressive humiliating Southern Miss by 30 points Saturday.

Teams like to feel as if they have “locked in” an invitation to the big dance before going to their conference post-season play. They don’t want to be in a position where they possibly have to win the tournament, or at minimum are required to have a very good showing, to make it to the NCAA Tourney.

Kentucky is sitting on the fence with a convincing win over Tennessee this past Saturday that they sorely needed. Their final four regular season games will make or break them as they still face South Carolina, LSU, and Florida. Only LSU of those teams is probably a lock for the NCAA so they should be hotly contested battles. Inconsistency, a #61 RPI, and an opening game loss to the Big South’s VMI are hurting the Wildcats.

Like other 12-team leagues, the ACC’s top four teams get a bye while the other 8 play. Wake Forest is fighting to overtake the current #4 team, Florida State. One team you can count out for an at-large berth is Virginia Tech. Not only have the Hokies lost 5 of their last 7, but their remaining four games are with Clemson, Duke, North Carolina, and Florida State.

A couple of RPI oddities are out there. Siena could be this year’s version of the 2006 Missouri State program that finished with a #21 RPI but didn’t get an at-large bid. The Saints played a tough schedule and are 5-0 against teams ranked 51-100. However, they have two losses to 101-200 schools.

If anybody has the time, could you please explain to me how Utah has managed to be the #11 RPI rated team? They lost to Southwest Baptist, a non-Division 1 team, and the #186 team, Idaho State. They are 0-1 versus 1-25 teams and 4-4 against 51-100 squads.

Jim Kruger of Vegas Sports Authority wrote article.

Winning Bracket Buster info and Top Tilts

In this era of corporate greed being exposed, government self-interests more important than the people who elected these same officials, it’s good to see the average Joe being able to stand up and be heard. In college basketball, the Bracket Buster has become an annual event, where the so-called mid-major schools go head-to-head across the country, being able to compare themselves against a variety of different conferences.

For the serious college basketball and sports bettor, this is an important weekend, being able to visibly see a number of teams they would not view otherwise and make key determinations on a variety of these clubs for the end of the season, conference tournaments and those invited to post-season activities.

This can be a little like interleague baseball, where bettors are thrown off normal routines. In an effort to make this situation more palatable, here is key wagering information over the last three years to consider.

The first aspect that smacks you in the face is road teams are 90-53-4 ATS, 62.9 percent. In trying to explain why this would happen, it has to do with team and conference pride. This is a big moment for the visitor, going into hostile territory. The home team or the crowd doesn’t know what to make of this opponent and can be caught off-guard. This has been particularly true if the oddsmakers are expecting tight contest, with the road teams 23-11 SU & 25-9 ATS (73.5 percent), when the line is +3 to -3.

Certain conferences have shown extreme results that should be followed. The Missouri Valley Conference teams have hosted a number of these matchups. Though, The Valley is highly thought of, they are just 9-8 SU and 4-12-1 ATS at home, including hideous 0-8-1 spread run in last nine games.

A few of those encounters have come against the Colonial Athletic Association, who is 8-7 in Bracket Buster roadies, with sparkling 10-5 ATS mark.

The MAC over the years has done well in the Big Dance and has unexpected results in this event. The MAC is .500 in 32 tilts over three seasons, but is 7-11 ATS at home and 8-5 against the spread on the road, matching the aforementioned profile.

The Big West Conference receives little if any acclaim, since UNLV moved on years ago. They are often fodder for larger schools in non-conference, yet have held their own against teams of their ilk. The Big West is 12-12 SU, with 13-10-1 ATS record and watch for these squads as favorites, boasting 7-3-1 ATS mark.

The MAAC teams are having another spirited campaign. This league ends up playing primarily road games for this competition and they are 9-6 ATS, with six victories.

Make certain to scout out double digit road underdogs. They may be 2-18, but they are 12-7-1 against the spread.

Here is a look at the key televised Bracket Buster contests.

Butler at Davidson 12:00ET, ESPN

The gem of the Bracket Buster is this matchup, two teams all but certain to be in the field of 65 teams in mid-March; however they have made situation more tenuous with recent play. Over the last two seasons, Butler (22-4, 15-9 ATS) has won a staggering 26 games away from home. The Bulldogs do this by playing outstanding defense, limiting both made baskets and quality shots and offense is not afraid to run down the shot clock to earn a better look at the rim. Since Butler became an elite mid-major, the types of players have gotten noticeably more athletic, providing even greater versatility. However they have dropped two in row Horizon League play, which will not help their cause. The Bulldogs are 12-4 ATS playing against a team with a winning record this season.

With Davidson (22-5, 12-12-1 ATS) losing to the College of Charleston and the Citadel at home, this meeting suddenly takes on greater importance. The earlier losses on the road to ranked teams didn’t hurt the Wildcats value, but this pair of defeats certainly does. Stephen Curry missed the last game with a sprained ankle and will be game time decision. Beating a team like Butler, who has been ranked for sometime, helps restore faith among those that matter. Look for Davidson to want to set the tempo and they are 17-6 ATS versus teams outscoring opponents by eight or more points a game after 15 contests have been played.

Davidson is 11-3 ATS in last 14 non-conference games and could use a win to stem the negative tide.

Buffalo at Vermont 1:00ET, ESPN2

Buffalo U. is going for the rare double, being MAC football and basketball champions in the same year. The Bulls (17-7, 12-11 ATS) are off to their best start in league play since joining the conference in 1998. Guard Rodney Pierce is candidate for MAC Player of the Year and forward Calvin Betts is worthy of all-MAC mention, but they key has been moving Greg Gamble to the point guard spot to bring everything together. Buffalo has lost last two contests and is only 1-5 ATS since late January. The shocking home loss to Bowling Green was unexpected and they are 7-1 ATS off a loss by 10 or more points.

Vermont (21-7) is again in the thick of the America East race and a dangerous team. The Catamounts average better than 77 points a game, with quality scorers like forward Marcus Blakely, who numerous double-double’s and point guard Mike Trimboli is doubled-edged threat as scorer and passer. Few of Vermont’s games have lines, however this will and they are 11-3 at home.

Northern Iowa at Siena 3:00 ET, ESPN2

Two leaders of their respective conferences will share the afternoon spotlight. Northern Iowa (18-9, 11-12 ATS) has been the best team in the Missouri Valley, before falling twice this past week. The Panthers are battled tested, with 11 of their games being decided by six points or fewer. UNI is not reliant on any one player, preferring a mix of players to add up to winning formula. Whether it is Ali Farokhmanesch dropping three-points or Adam Koch and Jordan Eglelander controlling the paint, this is club with more than one answer. Look for the Panthers to be up to the challenge with 7-4 and 6-5 ATS road record.

Coming into this week, Siena (21-6, 11-14 ATS) had the second highest RPI ranking (29) of any Bracket Buster team. The Saints have won the MAAC thanks to the efforts of Kenny Hasbrouck and swingman Edwin Ubiles. Siena brought back all five starters and averages better than 77 points per game, yet are not ambitious defenders, with opponents converting 43.6 percent from the field. Teams like Northern Iowa can bother the Saints, since they are 5-13 ATS in home games versus teams making 45 percent or more of their shots.

Northern Iowa could be in dubious spot with recent 1-10 ATS non-conference record and going against Siena who is 13-5 ATS if opponent has better than 60 percent win percentage.

Utah State at St. Mary’s 5:00ET, ESPN2

Utah State (25-2, 13-8 ATS) is having their way with the Western Athletic Conference, holding a substantial lead and will test the waters of the West Coast Conference. The Aggies are doing what they always do, just better this season. Utah State under coach Stew Morrill is again one of the best shooting teams in the country and plays tenacious defense. Utah State is the only team in the nation to win at least 23 games in each of the past 10 seasons and was recently featured in an article in the USA Today. The Aggies brilliant campaign has been spear-headed by junior college transfer Jared Quayle. Utah State is 10-1 and 7-2 ATS in road games.

It hasn’t been a happy time for St. Mary’s since losing guard Patty Mills to broken hand. His ability as scorer and playmaker has left the Gaels (21-5, 14-8 ATS) with a massive void having lost four of seven. His departure has eroded the confidence of the team and players like Diamon Simpson have not stepped in to fill scoring gap. Center Omar Samhan is a good player, but he needs someone to feed him the ball in the post to be effective. St. Mary’s covers roughly one-third of their games against teams that have 42 or lower field goal percentage defense.

St. Mary’s is still hopeful Mills will return before the end of season and a win over a Top 25 team, without him would bolster the confidence of those choosing the field of 65. It will take a supreme effort by the Gaels with Utah State 10-3 ATS in non-conference action.

George Mason at Creighton 9:30ET, ESPNU

Creighton (22-6, 15-9 ATS) has steadily improved since a slow start in Missouri Valley action, winning seven straight encounters (5-2 ATS), to move into first place tie with Northern Iowa, which is no surprise with coach Dana Altman at the helm. Altman recently registered his 300th Valley victory and typically focused the attention on his team, instead of himself. As hobbling players like guard Booker Woodfox are returning to health and Justin Carter, Kenny Lawson and Kenton Walker continue to improve, this might be the best team in the conference by the time the post-season tourney arrives. The Blue Jays are 13-2, but just 5-6 ATS in Omaha.

George Mason (18-8, 14-6-1 ATS) could be the best team in the Colonial, if they could win on the road. The Patriots have suffered five road losses by a total of 18 points. The fault lies with the defense, which allows 10.1 more points per game on the road than at the Patriot Center. In this contest, watch the backcourt of John Vaughn and Dre Smith both can fill up the basket in a hurry. Louis Birdsong is George Mason’s best inside defender. The Patriots are 9-1 ATS versus good ball handling teams committing 14 or fewer turnovers a game this season.

George Mason is the underdog, nonetheless is 8-2 ATS against teams with winning records.

Friday the 13th- Non-Movie version

What a difference determination makes. Notre Dame wanted to win so badly and Louisville looked like they would have just as soon played video games and ordered Papa John’s pizzas. I was trying to think of school that has lost more close games in improbable ways at home than Northwestern. How they lost to Illinois was inconceivable.

The express slowed with 1-2 outcome and the action is thinner than a side view of Paris Hilton. Going NHL for today’s Top Trend and have to bring Sal right back for free play as he stays white hot in college basketball betting. Today’s best system is not official play at 78 percent, but worth noting. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON an underdog like St. Peter’s off a close road win by three points or less, playing on Friday nights. This system is 32-9 ATS, 78 percent, with average margin of victory 3.6 points.

Free Hockey Trend -2) The San Jose Sharks are 12-1 against the money line after failing to win four of their last five over the last three seasons.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Sal continues to fill his basket with winners at 27-8 and is playing Butler tonight.

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