Spurs must control tempo to even series

This series without question is the clash wills and desire to play different games. Phoenix won and covered the series opener 111-102 as 4.5-point favorites because they were able to control the pace of the game for longer periods of time than San Antonio. The Spurs made a couple of incredible runs by playing their preferred style, but ultimately it wasn’t enough and they were defeated.

Steve Nash just abused George Hill in the first half, making the second year guard look like a second year player being schooled. Nash used change of pace dribbles, went between his legs on strong cross-over moves and left Hill dumbfounded with one-step three-pointers and one-handed floaters.

This forced Gregg Popovich to use Tony Parker on Nash, which worked for the most part in slowing Nash down as scorer, but he was still able to find the open man for 10 assists to compliment his 33 points.

“He ran it down our throat," Spurs coach Popovich said.

Defining the Spurs weakness is relatively simple. When San Antonio plays against teams that push the pace, taking a large volume of shots and are winning club, they struggle.
Forget about the Golden State’s, Sacramento’s and Indiana’s of the world that take a vast number of attempts because their players are more interested in stats than winning, look for quality.

This season the Spurs are 3-9 and 2-10 ATS versus Phoenix, Denver and Utah, all teams that accelerate pace.

Why do they struggle, start with Tim Duncan. The future Hall of Famer has turned that odometer over several times in his 13 years in the league and played a record low 31.3 minutes per game this season. Duncan can no longer run up down the floor effortlessly with his stiff and sore knees and his lateral quickness is virtually gone.

The Spurs do not have defensive stoppers like Bruce Bowen and usable big men like they had in the past. Nazr Mohammed and Rasho Nesterovic could clog the lane and block shots from recent championship teams.

This is bore out with San Antonio being 1-9 ATS in road games when both teams score 98 or more points this season. They were only 4-4 SU and ATS against average teams like Memphis and Houston who preferred to play at faster clip.

This Spurs team has to ride the brake, maximizing points per possession while squeezing the life out of opponent like they did against Dallas.

That means running the offense thru Duncan and Manu Ginobili with Tony Parker and Richard Jefferson making themselves available.

Popovich’s team is a 2.5-point underdog with total of 205.5. The black-clad Spurs are 11-24 ATS revenging a road loss and have to gain control early and force more contested three-point attempts by Phoenix. This club does not have ability to get in shooting match behind the arc (4-19 in Game 1) and is better suited to play under control with Duncan and teammates running at their own pace instead of chasing opponents.

This TNT telecast starts at 9:00 Eastern and San Antonio is 16-5 UNDER as a road underdog of three points or less.

Spurs vs Suns Series Preview

This past weekend we heard a great deal about how Boston and Cleveland don’t really like each other. While this information is certainly true it pales in comparison to how Phoenix and San Antonio feel about each other. That is Microsoft and Apple doing battle, this is the real deal like Coke vs. Pepsi, McDonald’s vs. Burger King, Jennifer Aniston vs. Angelina Jolie. What’s more the Suns have been Avis to the Spurs Hertz, with Phoenix having been bounced out of the playoffs four times by the team from southwest Texas since 2003. This is going to be war.

(3)Phoenix vs (7) San Antonio

Steve Nash did not practice the previous two days before this Western Conference semi-final opened, resting his sore right hip. The most obvious question was it a reoccurrence of the infamous hip check former Spur Robert Horry laid on Nash or something completely different.
The Suns have had the home court advantage over San Antonio the last two times these teams have met in the postseason and came up short. They believe this time will be different, not being strictly a running team and being able to play defense for extended periods of time.

"It's like super-transition `D' against these guys," San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich said. "They're really playing well, and the best shooting team ever, basically, from 3. Great chemistry, sharing the ball, playing 'D'. Alvin (Coach Gentry) and his group have done a great job. The players have really bought in, and they do a lot of things really well."

Phoenix will have to use similar formula that allowed them to win four of last five games against Portland. Running a controlled break which leads to layups or find spot up shooters like Jason Richardson and rain down three’s.

The Suns also received bench contributions from a number of players from Goran Dragic and Jared Dudley to Channing Frye and others. The Suns are 26-7 and 23-9-1 ATS since Feb. 19 (have not lost two straight since Jan. 25-26) and this streak coincided when they collectively bought into Gentry’s preaching about team defense and Amare Stoudemire deciding he wanted to be one of the best players in the NBA. Stoudemire loves to see the Spurs coming with 24.6-point playoff average against them (28.8 PPG if rookie season is dropped) and he posted 32.7 points and 11.3 rebounds on San Antonio this season.

Grant Hill might be 37, but he missed so much time over a five year period of his career, his legs are that of a much younger player and he is the Suns best defender. Whether he starts on Manu Ginibili is immaterial, since eventually he will make his way over to him defensively.
Though both teams have many new faces, Nash knows what to expect and believes the series will come down to "the usual suspects." For San Antonio that is Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Ginobili, especially right now.

Duncan has slowed from his early days, but he is still a crafty veteran and the Suns don’t have that big physical guy that could create more problems for Duncan even if Robin Lopez returns. Duncan should expect to see several combo defenses and will have to find shooters and cutters when the Suns double him.

Parker has accepted his role off the bench, still seeing ample minutes as George Hill takes over as true point guard. This allows Parker to freelance more without the ball and forces defenders to chase.

If it were not for Hill and Ginobili, a reasonable argument could be made the Spurs might not have made the playoffs when Parker was injured. The Argentinean has done everything, scoring literally anywhere on the floor and became the emotional leader. He is the one player in this series that could single-handedly win a game or two by himself.

Richard Jefferson could play a prominent role in this noteworthy conflict. The former Net and Buck didn’t have much of an impact during the regular season, but after being a non-factor in Game 1 loss to Dallas, the rest of the series he was steady contributor and if he can keep the Suns J-Rich busy on defense, it’s shown his point production diminishes.

Most of the confrontations in this series are expected to have totals of 200 or higher and Popovich teams are 53-36 ATS when the number is 200 or higher.

This series really comes down to a test of wills. Can Phoenix keep their poise and not let a few Spurs antics get to them? In the past San Antonio had a size edge over the Suns, they do not this time, will that be a burden? This has the look and feel of seven games and even that might not be enough for regulation play. As long as Nash is healthy, the Suns should finally knock off their nemesis like they did in the regular season (2-1 and 3-0 ATS), however it won’t be easy.

3Daily Winners Pick- Phoenix (-145) in seven over San Antonio (+115)

Rising Suns in burning hot system

In the West Conference of the NBA, a ten-game winning streak for a good team doesn’t mean as much as it used to. On Mar. 13, the Phoenix Suns (50-27, 43-32-2 ATS) at stood at 40-26, sixth place in the West.

The Suns would embark on 10 consecutive wins, the last four all on the road. Their last contest was away from home at Milwaukee and coach Alvin Gentry prophetically told the local television announcers before the game which they shared with Suns viewers during the broadcast, “We (the Suns) might be in for a stinker”.

Gentry was correct, as his squad was playing fourth road game in five days and they trailed the Bucks by 24 points at halftime before making it a respectable 107-98 final as 2.5-point underdogs.

That 10-1 streak (7-3-1 ATS) is your classic half full-half empty argument.

Phoenix moved is virtual four-way tie for second place in the West with Utah, Dallas and Denver, making the glass half full. However, the reality is they are in fourth place according to the tie-breakers and could conceivably fall to seventh place if they were to lose their next two games and the trailing teams won both of theirs. (This information makes the glass half empty)

There is a real possibility Phoenix could lose two in a row even with three full days of rest with tonight’s opponent San Antonio (48-29, 41-35-1 ATS), which is on ESPN at 7:30 Pacific.
The Spurs have won four straight (all covers) by an average of 14.2 points a game and six of seven overall, with their 95-86 win at Sacramento last night.

Tony Parker returned last evening after missing 16 games, but it has been the play of Manu Ginobili in particular why San Antonio is 16-5 in previous 21 games. “I’m feeling really confident right now,” said Ginobili, whose averaging 24.9 points in his last 16 outings.

The Spurs are a real nemesis of Phoenix, having eclipsed the Suns from the playoffs in 2003, 2005, 2007-08 and won four of last five meetings (3-2 ATS).

The Spurs create matchup problems for Phoenix, who again lead the NBA in scoring at 110.4 PPG, by slowing the Suns down on offense and taking advantage of their defensive shortcomings.

The oddsmakers at DiamondSportsbook.com are not so sure San Antonio can overcome Gentry’s team again, installing them as seven-point road underdogs and facing a potent super situation.

Play On explosive offensive teams, scoring 103 or more points a game on the season, after trailing in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half.

When this state of affairs arises, the high scoring team off the crummy performance is 35-11 ATS, 76.1 percent the previous five seasons.

With the Spurs 3-14 ATS after four or more consecutive wins and Phoenix 10-2 ATS playing against a good team with a 60-70 win percentage this season, the odds stack up in their favor.