East has only formatted pairing

In what many are calling the greatest NCAA Tournament ever, at the very least to this point, the East Region has been a sea of tranquility, at least in part. Top seeds Kentucky and West Virginia are the only No. 1 and No. 2 seeds to make to the Elite Eight field from the same region and these two squads are combined 6-0 SU and ATS to this juncture. For those who would run over Cinderella’s glass slipper and discard her to the side of the road, this is the right matchup.

Kentucky (35-2, 20-15 ATS) became the best bet to win the NCAA Tournament after Kansas was derailed and they look the part, winning by 25.3 points per game in three tries. It’s amusing to read Kentucky detractors, this team is too young, they don’t shoot the ball well against zone defenses and Ashley Judd doesn’t look that hot in blue. While all or some of this conjecture might be true, coach John Calipari had arguably the most talented team coming into the tournament and as opposed to Kansas who could match them ability-wise, coach Cal’s players have an obvious desire to win and convincingly.

Kentucky has moved to 6-0 ATS in NCAA tourney clashes and their defense is unrelenting, with no team shooting over 36 percent in last three games and only Mississippi State converting over 40 percent among the previous six opponents.

West Virginia (30-6, 16-19 ATS) can also “D” it up with their physical nature. The Mountaineers have also not permitted a team to shoot over 40 percent in the tournament and six of last seven foes have not been able to make four of ten shot attempts. Coach Bob Huggins squad has won nine in a row (6-3 ATS) by locking down shooters and playing volleyball with their own missed shots.

Against Washington, they owned the glass with a 49-29 advantage and if they can convert over 76 percent from the charity stripe (13-17) against Kentucky, they could move to 22-4 ATS in all post-season tournament games since 1997.

Kentucky is a four-point pick at Bookmaker.com, with total of 133.5 and 13-6 ATS versus defensive teams holding opponents to 42 percent or less shooting and 7-1 ATS in previous eight Saturday assignments. The Wildcats are 9-1 OVER after three consecutive contests allowing 37 percent or less shooting. West Virginia is 6-0 ATS after a trio of teams have failed to score 60 or more points against them and 11-3 UNDER after they’ve covered the spread this season.

Watch for if Bob Huggins brings out their 1-3-1 zone sooner against Kentucky. Though West Virginia doesn’t use it a great deal in any given game, typically it has been at the end of a contest and it has worked like Mariano Rivera in closing out games. Because of Kentucky’s size, they might put John Wall and Patrick Patterson in the corners to get shots and set backside screens for lob attempts to either or both.

Maybe it just seems peculiar, but a 1 vs. 2 matchup only happens 35 percent of the time in the Elite Eight according to BracketScience.com since the field went to 64 teams. The higher seed is a mere 18-17 SU, with point differential of +1.4.

System predicts NCAA Champion

The field of 64 is set; you like many people have filled out numerous brackets in a variety of pools and now it is time to start breaking down the various first round matchups, looking for edges and spotting those potential early round exits by favorites. Having the benefit of using the point spread helps in many cases and mustering up the courage on money line dogs is another way to make hard currency when betting college basketball. But what about the “home run” wager, picking the winner of the entire NCAA Tournament, which can offer a decent payout depending on the winner.

Even with the large field, most years, around 10 teams have legitimate chance of winning six games in a row. Long shots are great; however they don’t bring home the cash betting futures. In the last 13 years, only teams seeded 1, 2 or 3 have emerged as champions. Lute Olson’s 1997 Arizona Wildcats were the last team that was not among the top tier of teams as a four-seed. In the 1980’s, we had Danny Manning and the Miracles in 1988 as a sixth-seed and Jim Valvano’s incredible stretch in 1983 with North Carolina State.

Each year, the litany of ways to select a champion is trotted out. Among the various aspects that are all noteworthy are veteran players, point guard play and defensive shooting percentages. Each in their own right holds value and opens the window to opportunity.

A few years ago, I heard ESPN analyst Jimmy Dykes doing a game late in the season and he was talking about what characteristics make up a NCAA champion. I happened to be taping that game and able to save the information and do the research.

Here is his list and what has occurred.

• 9 of 9 past champions had a 10 or more games winning streak
• 8 of 12 past champions won their conference tournament
• 20 of 22 past champions had NBA player 6’8 or taller
• 21 of 22 past champions had NBA a guard

It is important to understand what each of these points mean. First, if a team has a long winning streak of 10 or more, to whatever degree, they must be a good team. This season, 24 teams that made the field of 65, have won this many games in a row. Some teams could schedule their way into this many wins consecutively; however in reviewing this list, you see this consists primarily of college basketball squads that ruled there conferences.

Number of consecutive wins: (Note- Four teams has two such streaks)

20 – Butler
19- Kentucky
17 – Murray State, Texas, Utah State
16 – UTEP
15- New Mexico (12), No. Iowa, Siena, BYU
14- Kansas (13), Purdue (10)
13- Wofford
12- Syracuse (11)
11- Morgan State, No. Texas, Oakland U. Sam Houston St., Villanova, West Virginia
10- Temple, Vanderbilt, Kansas State

The most notable absence from this list is No. 1 seed Duke. If one believes in the power of the numbers, than the Blue Devils are a non-factor, missing the top criteria.

From this point, we move to conference tournament champions. This is where we can start really eliminating teams. Let’s be honest, its obvious Wofford, Morgan State, No.Texas, Oakland and Sam Houston State have no shot at winning six games in a row against this field, thus we can eliminate that group from the field.

That leaves us with six teams that met the first and second variable that would at least in theory have chance to win the championship. Those teams would be West Virginia, No. Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Temple and Butler.

The next areas are somewhat subjective, however I watch a ton of college basketball (yes I have a life and wife) and went through a number of websites that discuss players with professional potential that are likely to be drafted in the NBA.

Starting with West Virginia, DeSean Butler has been in many discussions for national player of the year and looks the part of NBA player; nonetheless he is listed at 6’7, falling literally just short of this criterion. 6’9 Devin Banks might blossom in the years ahead, but has not yet been given such prominence. The Mountaineers have good college guards, yet nothing that appears to be pro material.

Northern Iowa has two players that might be better suited to play in the D-League or overseas in C Jordan Eglasedar and F Adam Koch. The Panthers have smallish guards that shoot the ball well from the perimeter and handle the rock, yet they lack the size or quickness to be next level players.

Bill Self is one of the best recruiters in the country and does he have talent. Cole Aldrich is sure-fire first round selection whenever he comes out and the Morris brothers (Marcus and Markieff) are 6’8 or 6’9 and getting better on regular basis. Sherron Collins is border-line to be NBA guard at 5’11, but that doesn’t mean he won’t be on NBA roster and be a like former Jayhawks guard Jacque Vaughn. The more likely candidate from the Kansas backcourt to draw a salary playing pro ball is freshman Xavier Henry.

You don’t have to have a “Basketball Jones” diploma to see John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins and Patrick Patterson will all probably be playing for one of the 30 NBA teams next season, since most presume they are all coming out. Another year or two and 6’10 Daniel Orton will be joining his Kentucky teammates, along with possibly a couple more off of John Calipari’s squad.

Butler has the longest winning streak in college hoops and is battled tested. Are they really good enough to win a NCAA Tournament, most likely not, but that hasn’t stopped NBA scouts from getting a closer look at sophomore Gordon Hayward. Also, guard Shelvin Mack has a number of positive qualities and like Hayward is just second year player who as of yet does not have a ceiling on his talent.

Temple has a pair of dandy guards in Ryan Brooks and Juan Fernandez. Brooks is a senior and his name doesn’t show up in any draft-nik websites I went through. Fernandez is a good looking player, but seems to be more in the discovery stage in terms of his ability. 6’9 Levoy Allen’s stock is on the rise, but similar to Fernandez, is still moving up the charts for NBA prospects, not on them.

While this might be more boring than oatmeal, Kansas and Kentucky are the two teams that meet all four quadrants of this study. While it is more fun to pick the right team from out of the pack, choosing the right winner is more important. Hope this helps you make a greater evaluation as to what teams could be the NCAA national basketball champions. Good Luck.

Battle of Big Men in SEC Action

Kentucky’s second ranked basketball team is the tallest in the country and at any time they could play a NBA-sized frontline and often do. Four of their keys players are freshmen and from a purely talent standpoint only Syracuse might have more arguably, with Kansas right behind them. Though the Wildcats have been tripped up just once all season, they have not been to Starksville, where it is not unusual for Mississippi State (18-7, 11-8-1 ATS) to play beyond their ability when a top level team arrives in town.

Mississippi State’s offense may go up and like the stock market, but its defense delivers like UPS. Center Jarvis Varnado is a swatting machine near the bucket and has a real hunger for grabbing rebounds. The Bulldogs have been at the top of the SEC in fewest points allowed (62.6 points per game) nearly the entire season and would be a Top 25 team if coach Rick Stansbury could get reliable point guard play. Whether its regular starter Dee Bost or backups, too many forced plays and poor shot selection have contributed to Mississippi State losing six games by five points or less.

The Bulldogs defeated Auburn in overtime 85-75 in last contest and are 8-1 ATS after a win by 10 points or more this season. They are tied with Arkansas at 6-4 for the SEC West lead and their offense is built around making long bombs. Mississippi State made 11 three’s balls against the Tigers for the win and they are proficient at home shooting the long ball with 39.7 percent marksmanship, converting on 10 of 26 attempts. With a defense that allows 36.8 percent shooting percentage and ability to score in bunches, it’s no wonder Mississippi State is 14-2 ATS against offensive clubs scoring 77 or points a game.

The Wildcats (24-1, 12-11 ATS) might not do everything right to please coach John Calipari, but they are awfully close. This team is dominated by freshmen who can play and they have grown as the season as progressed. That is not only a compliment to the players, but to Coach Cal who has impressed on them the importance of playing defense, holding opponents 37.6 percent shooting, by effectively cutting off the lane area. Though the Bulldogs are good rebounding team with a +4 in margin differential, Kentucky is one of the best in the country at +10. The Wildcats are 26-8 ATS after three straight games outrebounding opponent by six or more.

Kentucky will have to stand-up to three point barrage they will face. “They are going to shoot them whether you are there or not, you just have to make them hard,” Calipari said. “You have to understand what you’re playing against. You can’t fall asleep.” The Wildcats are 3-8 ATS off a spread win, including dropping last five.

Kentucky is three-point favorite at Bookmaker.com, with total of 143. The game features a potential unique matchup of big men, Varnado against DeMarcus Cousins. Varnado leads the SEC and ranks sixth nationally with 11.3 rebounds per game, and he’s second in NCAA history with 519 career blocked shots. Cousins’ has exceptional offensive skills in the paint, is an aggressive defender and can really run the court. “They’re two different kinds of players,” coach Calipari said. “One is going to block shots and be active and be quicker to the ball. The other is just a hard matchup for teams.” Kentucky is 14-5 UNDER after consecutive wins against conference rivals over the last three seasons.

This is the second game on Super Tuesday on ESPN and Mississippi State has won 12 in a row at Humphrey Coliseum since losing home opener (4-3-1 ATS) and they are 10-1 ATS versus teams making 48 percent of their shots since 2007-08 season. Big Blue has won four of last six in Starksville and is 17-8 ATS off a home win. Because the Bulldogs are not great at guard, John Wall could be the difference.

Keep in mind, the team with the higher three-point shooting percentage is 4-1 ATS.

College Hoops Televised Tilts

The World Wide Leader is back open for business with its regular college basketball weekday assortment. Tuesday’s the last several seasons has meant Big Ten and SEC hoops and that is the case again this campaign. Purdue is off initial defeat of the season and returns home to take on Ohio State who is back at full strength. Kentucky is one of the two remaining unbeaten teams and heads south to chilly Florida, where the trips have been left them numbingly cold.

A teaching moment for Purdue coaches

The Boilermakers have rarely been outworked for long stretches in any game this season until they faced the Wisconsin Badgers. Purdue (14-1, 8-7 ATS) has a Midwestern blue-collar identity, but didn’t bring that same ethic to Madison and were beaten by the Badgers 73-66. Coming into tonight’s matchup, coach Matt Painter was succinct.

“We have to have a better effort than we had in Madison the other night,” Painter said on Monday. “They simply just whipped us. Wasn’t happy with the rebounding, wasn’t happy with the effort. … We’ve just got too many people watching.” The Boilermakers are 15-6 ATS after playing a road game over the last three seasons.

Ohio State (11-5, 7-9 ATS) has stumbled to start the Big Ten season, losing three of first four (all on the road). The Buckeyes were rolling along to start the season when their best player, Evan Turner, fell and broke two bones in his lower back on Dec. 5. Turner returned last week and he and his team is trying to get back into prior groove, winning against Indiana (79-54) and losing at Minnesota (73-62) last Saturday. “We’re trying to get our mojo back a little bit,” Turner said.

Ohio State has covered just one of their last eight games and is a 9.5-point underdog at Purdue. For Big Ten bettors this is not the worst news as the Buckeyes are 6-2 ATS as seven to 12.5-point underdogs and are 8-1 ATS in road games on Tuesday nights over the last three seasons. Purdue will look to commence with another winning streak and is 14-3 ATS at home after a conference game since 2007.

Tipoff is at 7:00 Eastern.

No. 2 and trying harder

Kentucky (16-0, 7-7 ATS) is off to its best start since starting 23-0 44 years ago and fans of Big Blue are ecstatic with their play and #2 ranking. The basketball world knows about guard John Wall, but other freshmen like forward DeMarcus Cousins are improving game by game, shifting the responsibility away from Wall and freeing junior Patrick Patterson, who is averaging nearly a double-double on the season. Kentucky travels into Gator country after slipping by Georgia 76-68 as 19.5-point favorites and are 8-1 ATS off a no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite over the last three seasons.

The Gators 8-0 start is looking like a no money down Florida land contract, simply too good to be true, with a series of losses. Coach Billy Donovan has publicly stated his team needs gumption and willingness to fight thru adversity. Florida (11-4, 5-5 ATS) has floundered because of poor perimeter shooting, an inability to keep opponents off the offensive boards and careless turnovers. While losing to Syracuse was no disgrace, close defeats to Richmond and South Alabama showed a lack of spirit and determination for a squad that is 37-14 ATS versus teams connecting on 48 percent or more of their shot attempts.

Bookmaker.com has Kentucky as 3.5-point favorites with total of 142 and they are 16-6 ATS after playing three consecutive home games. Florida comes in off a loss to Vanderbilt and is 5-14 ATS after a game where they made 13 or more three-point shots. The Gators have won five straight at the O'Connell Center over Kentucky, covering the number four times. The action starts at 9 Eastern.