NBA scheduling affects playoff picture

Roughly three weeks remain in the NBA regular season and sports bettors are racking their brains trying to come up with the right answers to pick winners. The playoff chase is in high gear and many teams are scrambling for better positions or are trying to round their game into top form.

Among the many factors a NBA bettor has to take into consideration is scheduling, especially at crunch time late in the season. Every day this time of the season, nearly half the games do not have an overnight line due to one injury or another from a myriad of teams and if they are forced to play back to-back games or three in four days with travel involved, determining a winner is just that much more complicated.

While one is left to ponder these unfriendly conditions, here is what the schedule looks like for many of the contenders in each conference.

Western Conference Shoot-out

At least mathematically, 10 teams in the West still have a chance to secure a playoff spot and as this article was posted, each of them have a winning record in their previous 10 outings, proving what is at stake for all of them.

Unless the Los Angeles Lakers come down with an epidemic, they are fairly secure to wrap up the top slot out West. The second position is like the smog in L.A., not quite as clear. Denver and Dallas are going toe to toe, trying not only to keep teams from hunting them down in their own divisions, but seeking the higher seed should they meet possibly in the West semi-finals with crucial home court advantage at stake.

Both teams have seven road games left and the Mavericks have the edge in that department with 22-12 mark and brilliant 21-13 ATS record as visitors. Besides their exceptional road radiance, Dallas will be either favored or a short underdog in five of those contests.

Denver on the other hand is .500 on the road and 15-16-3 ATS in traveling uniforms. This week they open a five game road trip, visiting rugged outposts like Boston, Orlando and finishing up in Big D, possibly a real deciding matchup. The Nuggets also have a demanding close to the year- @Oklahoma City, home to the Lakers, San Antonio and Memphis and @Phoenix.

Positions four-thru eight will be not only challenge each West contender, but the wits of those putting down the cash to bet the correct side. Three teams in particular will have to literally take it one game at a time and will not have much time to do so. San Antonio, Oklahoma City and Houston all have a heavy workload with 14 games in just over three weeks. The Thunder have the most games on their own floor with eight and is 22-11 and 18-15 ATS, winning by 5.7 points per contest at the Ford Center. OKC will have to earn their postseason spot even at home, facing all contenders except for Minnesota on Apr. 4.

The Spurs have been scorching the last few weeks even without Tony Parker in the lineup. George Hill has proven his value at the point guard and they will need him and the other veterans like Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili to overcome a hellacious close to the year. The eight road games is hard enough (16-16, 14-18 ATS) at places like Boston, the Lakers, Phoenix, Denver and Dallas. But even when they are back home, Kobe and company pays a visit as does Cleveland and Orlando. If San Antonio doesn’t slip to eighth seed, it would appear to be a miracle, even with how well they have been executing.

Houston looks like a longshot to make the playoffs, down four games in the loss column to Portland and having eight remaining road games, all in groups of two or three. The Rockets are 8-14 as road dogs (10-12 ATS) and need a 11-3 close to even give themselves a chance.

Utah and Phoenix have both been playing solid basketball for some time and are seeking the all important first round home series as a fourth seed. The Suns have the more arduous journey with eight road games in final 12 contests, which includes a five-game trip mostly thru the Midwest. Steve Nash and the gang should at least show a profit as visitors, as they are 19-14 away from the desert, losing by less than a point a game (-0.8).

Utah’s slate is similar to the Suns, with one less roadie and one more in Salt Lake City. The Jazz travels should include being a road favorite in at least five of their stops and they will be favored in all five contests at EnergySolutions Arena.

Eastern Conference battle and positioning

The Boston Celtics have endured a great deal of criticism this season. This team is loaded with veterans, some believe a little too old. The C’s haven’t shown a great deal of heart or are just lacking in talent against the upper echelon clubs since the calendar turned to 2010. From wagering perspective their home record is their most disconcerting aspect at 21-12 and abysmal 10-22-1 spread mark. Eight of their final 13 contests are at TD Banknorth Garden and the Celtics better take advantage or they could fall to fourth seed, which would mean facing Cleveland in East semis.

Barring injuries or an unforeseen major collapse, the Milwaukee Bucks are going to back to the playoffs. The Milwaukee front office deserves a great deal of credit, adding veterans with young players to have this club in the fifth slot in the East, thanks to 14-3 sprint since Feb.19, with 12-3-2 ATS mark. The Bucks can generate further momentum by playing nine of their final 14 games at the Bradley Center where they are 23-9 and 20-11-1 ATS.
The Chicago Bulls still have a chance, but they have fallen out of favor with their 1-10 slide like Sandra Bullock’s husband. That leaves three teams fighting to avoid first round matchup with LeBron James and the fellas.

Miami, Charlotte and Toronto are bunched like bananas and the Bobcats should have the edge. Charlotte has the most remaining home games, eight of last 13, where they are 25-8 and 19-14 ATS. At present, only two of those contests will be against teams with winning records.

The Raptors are playing the poorest of the trio and are equal parts home and away for their remaining conflicts. Toronto could well be saddled with facing Cleveland, because they are the worst defensive team in points surrendered in the East.

The Heat’s biggest strength down the stretch is Dwayne Wade. Miami has eight road games left on their plate (only five at home), which sounds daunting until you take a closer look. Of those, only Milwaukee has a winning record. That leaves it up to Heat players to take grab the proverbial bull by the horns and finish sixth, thus missing the Cavs and Orlando in the opening round of the postseason. Miami is 15-18 on the road with 17-16 ATS record.

This is a great time for all NBA bettors to take stock of each contending team’s situation and think in advance how they season may play out when it comes to the schedule.

Championship Week begins in earnest

We fell just short of our goal, but still produced a 2-1 Sunday. Kendall is back again with hopefully his third straight prediction at 3Daily Winners for Free Play. The Top Trend is in the MAAC title game. Good Luck

What I’m thinking today – LeBron James was originally listed as questionable, but with his status being changed to doubtful, Cleveland went from a seven point favorite down to five. The New Jersey and Memphis matchup has elicited tremendous response going both ways. The Grizzlies long home losing streak has bettors skittish even against the Lousy Bets, taking them from -10 to -8.5. The total has into gone the other way, from 195 to 198.

Possibly NBA bettors see the Knicks missing a barrage of shots again and have taken the total down two points to 209.5 vs. Atlanta.

In college basketball, many are seeing the Colonial championship being a defensive game, with the total having fallen from 120 to 117. Those same bettors see the Denver and North Texas Sun Belt semi-final in much the same way, having dropped 3.5 points from opening number of 130.

Wofford is getting a lot of love to be Southern Conference post-season champs for the first time ever, going from 3.5-point favorite to five at more locations all the time.

It hardly matters, but Washington has gone from a -320 money line favorite to -300.

As I mentioned Saturday, was pleased to find we won TWO awards for February at Cappers Monitor (Look below on this page) and as of today at least, No.1 in college basketball. Also found discovered we were No.1 in February also at Cappers Watchdog (Click to see).

To get my personal plays, sign up on mailing list to your right.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) No greats trends of any kind today, thus read article below what’s best in the NBA.

Free Basketball Trend - 2) Siena is 10-1 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Kendall’s is 26-11 the last eight days and is playing No. Texas to dump Denver.

Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right.

Ridin' High on a Monday

Nailed all three plays yesterday, which was a welcome figure after Friday’s not so special day. We have a number of NBA systems to consider which are listed below on this page. The Top Trend applies to the Big Monday contest in the Big East. Good Luck

What I saw today – (11:30 MST) As per usual, NBA bettors are hitting the totals and three games in particular stand out. Orlando and Philadelphia have gone from 195.5 to 198, in spite of the Magic being 22-9 UNDER on the road this season. New York and Cleveland have also risen, up 2.5-points to 213, which makes more sense as the Knicks are 14-2 OVER in road games having lost 12 or more of their last 15 games over the last three seasons.

Oddsmakers opened Denver and Phoenix at 225, and that figure swiftly went south to 221. That seems to be the right direction as the Nuggets average total score is 210.2 points per game with no rest and the Suns is 215.

Very interesting to see Charlotte move from a one point favorite to three, seeing they have never beaten Dallas since joining the NBA and the Mavs have won seven straight.

There are just six college basketball games on the Monday docket. Favored West Virginia has moved up a point to 6.5, while Texas and Utah State have dropped one digit as favorites.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) See article listed below.

Free Basketball Trend - 2) Georgetown is 4-19 ATS after one or more Under’s over the last two seasons.

Free Basketball Pick -3) After yesterday's winner, Steve has the Hornets with the points over the Spurs.

Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right.

Hoping for that Super Tuesday

Nice call by Ron of the LCC in his first visit at 3Daily Winners. He has another free NBA play ready to unload today. Our Top Hockey Trend was a winner yesterday, so why not deliver another. The Best System is in the NBA and in the Windy City at 25-5 ATS. Good Luck

What I saw today- In college basketball today, the totals released by oddsmakers are under siege, which is noticeably with such a limited card. Offensive-minded Seton and Villanova went from 163 to 166 and another Big East conflict has Providence and Syracuse moving up three digits from opening number of 166.

Here is a look at what bettors are thinking with the numbers heading downward and conventional wisdom is this would be more smart money than anything.

Towson/Drexel 130.5 to 127.5
Ole Miss/Kentucky 157.5 to 151
SMU/So. Miss. 123 to 119
Mich. State/Wisconsin 126 to 123.5
Northeastern/Delaware 128.5 to126.5
Air Force/S.D. State 119 to 116
Jackv. St./ Tenn. St. 142 to 140

The only side that has seen any significant line movement is Wake Forest going from -7.5 to -6 at home against Miami-FL, who is 6-4 and 5-4 ATS on the road.

In professional basketball, NBA bettors are seeing more defensive game in Cleveland, with the Memphis and the Cavs having been altered from 201.5 to 199. The Clippers and Bulls bash has gone from 195 to 196.5.

All quiet on the ice, with all NHL moves less than 10 cents.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Play Against home teams like the Chicago Bulls off an upset win as an underdog against opponent off three or more consecutive road losses. This system chimes in at 25-5 ATS, 83.3 percent since 2005.

Free Hockey Trend - 2) The Maple Leafs are 0-15 against the money line against defensive teams permitting 2.55 goals game or less this season.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Ron likes Oklahoma City to upend Atlanta on their home floor.

Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right.

Will Game 3 Winners Take Control?

The Los Angeles Lakers and Orlando Magic were dominant winners in Friday night action and with another triumph, can really grab the series by the throat and take commanding 3-1 lead and back their opponents into a corner they might not be able to get of. What NBA sports bettors have to contemplate is are these two teams capable of back to back performances for easy covers or will the pride and professionalism of the opposing club allow them to rise and win and cover the number? Here is a preview of the possible scenarios.

L.A. Lakers at Houston 3:30 E ABC

The wagering public had been impressed what they had seen with Houston in the first two games of series against the Lakers, especially on the road. Kobe Bryant and mates opened as 2.5-point favorites and quicker than a politician voting themselves a pay raise, the line shifted to 1.5. What most people didn’t figure on was the Lakers would play a complete game across the board.

Game 3 was a perfect example of what happens when a game plan is executed. The Lakers offensively knew Houston would do almost anything to seal the lane to prevent Kobe from driving to the rim. Instead, coach Phil Jackson had Bryant go as far as he could to force Houston defenders to collapse and Bryant expertly was able to find open players either to shoot or make extra pass to an even more open shooter.

It’s no accident the Lakers are the best road team in the NBA at 31-13 (24-19 ATS) and they are 19-10 ATS off a road conquest. The loss of Derek Fisher was not felt, as replacements Jordan Farmar and Shannon Brown combined for 20 points and the former dishing out seven assists, in his best game in months.

On defense, the Lakers are starting to gain control because of their superior quickness, forcing 17 Rockets turnovers which gave them 20-5 scoring differential off miscues, which was the game.

Houston is 9-2 ATS off a 10 or more point loss and has to run offense with greater urgency. The best way to describe the Rockets offensive execution in last game, it looked like they were on a turntable, playing at 33 RPM. Yao Ming was laboring (with broken foot as it turns out); Ron Artest was taking poor shots and Luis Scola was indecisive.

Houston has to move the ball more crisply and take advantage of Lamar Odom and Luke Walton, both defensive liabilities as straight up defenders.

DiamondSportsbook.com had the Lakers as 3.5-point favorites with total of 194.5. Houston is heinous 2-14 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points and 8-18 against the number after playing as underdog. L.A. is now 9-3-1 ATS in conference semi-finals and 8-3 UNDER is last 11 road games.

Ming is now out of the playoffs and the spread moved to +7. Either way the Rockets are 2-9 ATS when the purple-clad Lakers visit.

Boston at Orlando 8:00 E ESPN

For those that believe the Boston Celtics are anywhere close to the team that won the NBA title last summer, I can put you in touch with real estate agent who has land in rural Arizona. The proof that Boston is not the same team is in the total category. The Celtics are 8-2 OVER in the postseason and astonishing 14-3 OVER since April 1. That is not Boston basketball.

Coach Doc Rivers doesn’t have the horses that can shut down opponents and teams are rather easily able to dissect the Celtics players on the floor.

Rivers said this about watching the tape of Game 3. “Our defense was awful. I thought we were soft. I thought they were more aggressive. I thought we were the retaliators all game. Other than that, it was just a wonderful night of film watching.”

Boston is 13-4 ATS in road games after playing a game as a road underdog and will have to step up defense and keep fingers crossed Ray Allen finds shot, since he is 12 for 40 from the field and 3 for 19 from three point land in the first three tilts. As a team, the C’s look tired and did not practice Saturday. Rivers is hoping the time off rejuvenates his club.

Orlando could hardly have played any better, shooting 59.1 percent and they shutdown Boston’s offense for the first three quarters.

"Just the whole team stepped up the defensive intensity," said Dwight Howard, the NBA's defensive player of the year. "It starts with me. I have to do that every night if we want to be successful." Orlando is very comfortable playing at a faster pace and is 11-3 ATS after two or more Overs this season.

This is turning into another anomalous Eastern conference series, with all three game essentially blowouts, except the Boston’s late game one heroics to narrow the margin of loss. Orlando is five point favorite with total of 192. The Celtics are 8-1 ATS following a spread loss; while the Magic are 17-7 ATS if opponent has winning percent of .600 or higher.

How one looks at the total might be the deciding factor. Boston is 21-6 OVER after allowing over 100 points, while Orlando is 9-1 UNDER after a game where they made 55 percent of their shots or better.

Last Day of Wagering on NBA Regular Season

For many basketball bettors, this is a sad day. Dating back to the end of October, they have diligently grinded away studying all aspects of the NBA, be it numbers, scheduling, players stats, angles or flipping coins, all to find winners. With only two teams having completed their regular season, a monstrosity of 14 games is available today to close the regular season.

The problem with betting today is betting side action involves too much guess work. A quick look at various websites shows virtually every game having words like - out, doubtful, questionable and may rest starters. These are hardly words that inspire confidence and help create doubt, for the NBA bettor trying to close the regular season with a little fervor.

This turns the attention to Totals action. The normal perception is the last day is only a few teams have anything realistically to play for, thus the head coach asking players to play defense is similar to asking these same players to donate their tricked rides to charity, not going to happen. Over the years, the final day of the season is fraught with 130-128 games and players padding stats to win scoring or rebounding titles and some other individual achievements.
Oddsmakers have made adjustments to compensate for bettors trying to take advantage of these situations and in one area the results are rather compelling.

In order to find value in betting totals today, looked into the results of the last four years of the regular season. Based on how the numbers fell, the categories were broken down into three groups, Under 200 total points, 200-209.5 and 210 and up.

The last group produced a pedestrian record of 6-5 Under, though last year was 4-2 Over, still no reason to rush to Nevada casino or click to wagering account.

The middle group had the exact same results at 6-5 Under, with everything relatively balanced.
Where the real value was in the very first group, which was contrarian to preconceived notions. Since 2005, totals that were 200 or less have gone Under 22 of 34 games, a very healthy 64.7 percent. A general observation could be made that teams falling into this area do play a semblance of defense on a regular basis and oddmakers believe professional pride if nothing else will take over. More subs will see heavy minutes and offensive continuity will be broken down, thus leading to lower scoring games.

Taking this into consideration, home teams that might hold value as Totals plays are Orlando, Memphis, San Antonio, Cleveland, Boston, Miami, Dallas, L.A. Clippers and Portland, if the numbers hold. Check your man for the up to the moment Totals and consider Under plays.

NBA Wild West set for Wild Finish

After taking a complete day off, the NBA regular season resumes with nine days left. With Dallas all but finishing off Phoenix on Sunday, the eight teams that will be in the playoffs are set. However, the order of how the competition will match up is as up for grabs as next year’s Clippers roster. Four teams are legitimately still vying for second position in the Western Conference behind the Los Angeles Lakers. Western teams presently in slots four-thru-eight could be potentially reversed by the end of April 15. If the Kentucky Derby ends up having this sort of a finish in about a month, it should be quite a race.

The Mavericks (46-31, 37-40 ATS) will have a legitimate chance to avoid the Lakers in the first round. Dallas is 28-9 at home (16-21 ATS) and will host Utah and New Orleans in next two contests. The Jazz have been off-key most of the season on the road and the Hornets have injury issues that just won’t go away. The very next contest is return engagement at New Orleans, which is the Mavs last road encounter of the season. With aforementioned teams directly in front of them in the standings, a 3-0 start moves Dallas up with Minnesota and Houston due to come to American Airlines Arena.

Utah (47-30, 38-39 ATS) may have gained some confidence on the road with its win 108-94 win at New Orleans. That was just their second win in last eight road games, who have covered a mere three of last 13. Utah is not out of the woods by any stretch having road encounters with Dallas, San Antonio and the Lakers to close the season. They will have a couple of very winnable home games with Golden State and the Clippers, but how they perform on the road will determine their fate.

New Orleans (47-29, 33-42-1 ATS) has been a bad wager all year and it’s not about to get easier. Center Tyson Chandler hopes his left ankle will allow him to play next week and forward James Posey will be evaluated later for his bad elbow. Peja Stojakovic has been coming off the bench the last couple of games and could return to starting lineup after missing 15 games with bad back. That means Chris Paul and David West are playing 40+ minutes a game, being able to rest by not practicing. The Hornets still have six games left on the regular season docket and trail the division-leading Spurs by just two. They will need wins in next two tilts, at Miami and home to Phoenix. If that works out, they will have home and home with Dallas and road games against Houston and San Antonio. Not a very good situation for a team that is 14-22-1 ATS in the visitor’s uniforms.

The Portland Trailblazers (48-28, 40-35-1 ATS) have clinched their first playoff berth in six years and still could move up, however time is not on there side. Portland is pursuing Denver, trailing them by two games in the loss column. The Blazers have won seven of last 10, covering the spread eight times. Unfortunately, they are chasing Denver, who has won nine of 10. Portland has six games left on the schedule, compared to the Nuggets who have just four. The Blazers can’t make-up those games. Their best hope is to look to surpass Houston and gain the fourth seed, thus assuring home court for the first round. Portland stands at 31-7 and 23-14-1 ATS at the Rose Garden and has three home games and three road games remaining.

This year’s Denver (52-26, 44-33-1 ATS) squad is hardly recognizable. The Nuggets have never merited many points on the toughness scale. Always strong at home and weak to fair on the road, Denver was good enough to make the playoffs and not move forward. After losing five of first six in March, a familiar tone was being set, but quicker than a snow covered Rocky Mountain avalanche, coach George Karl’s club got white hot. The Nuggets have been punishing teams in being victorious 12 of 13 (9-4 ATS) times, winning nine times by 10 or more points. They will have two winnable home games to lock up the second seed, with difficult matches against the Lakers and Portland on the road.

San Antonio (49-27, 37-37-2 ATS) has done remarkably well to stay atop the Southwest Division. Tim Duncan battling achy knees and Manu Ginobili fighting the injury bug all season. Yet somehow coach Greg Popovich and Tony Parker have kept them afloat all season. The Spurs will be playing a great deal of basketball trying to lock up the division and finish no worse than a third seed. They have six games remaining and should either be favored in all six or the slightest of underdogs on the road.

Houston’s quest to find a way to win division continues, with the Rockets (49-28, 37-39-1 ATS) having five contests remaining. They should take down Sacramento and Golden State on the road, but it will be how they play at home against Orlando and New Orleans that will help determined what spot they have in the playoffs.

NBA bettors are going to have to make some very interesting decisions to finish the regular season, in choosing the teams out west.

Eastern Conference Conflict

Its one game out of 82 during the regular season and its true ramifications won’t be felt until later, if at all. Nevertheless, for the Orlando Magic, their goal is to make this a magical night and defeat the reigning NBA champion Boston Celtics. Orlando already has the best record in the Eastern Conference (a half a game over Cleveland) and believes they have closed the gap from a year ago and are true competitors to be conference champions.

Jameer Nelson believes the Magic are the equal or extremely close of being on par with the Celtics. “They’re a great team. We’re a good team,” said Nelson. “We’re trying to get to where they are.” It’s hard to argue with Nelson on his point studying the numbers.

If you discount New York, who is learning to play Mike D’Antoni basketball, Orlando is second in the East in points scored at 102.3 and Boston is third at 100.9. The Celtics do shoot at a higher percentage (48.1 vs 46.1), but a large part of that is a matter of preference, as the Magic make over 10 three-points a game, with approximately one-third of their shots beyond the arc. Boston runs a more conventional offense in attempting nine fewer long shots a contest.

Orlando also hopes to learn what a few others believe. Boston players are well-known in the league for talking more garbage then just about anybody. If opponents let this “smack” talk get to them, game over for Kevin Garnett and the rest of the yappers. However, if a team can maintain its poise and just play with the Celtics, the belief now is they tend to become quieter and in turn less intimidating.

For NBA bettors, there is a plethora of great angles from which to choose, it looks like a $5.99 all-you-can-eat buffet at the Trends table. Boston jumped on Miami early last night and coasted to 98-83 win as 5.5-point favorites. The C’s are 24-11 ATS in road games when playing on back-to-back days and amazing 71-42 ATS in road contests period, over the last three seasons. Doc Rivers has sold his club on playing one game at a time (besides how else would you do it) and they are 18-8 ATS when playing against top-level teams with a win percentage of 70 percent or higher since last season. When facing mad bombers like the Orlando, few problems, with 37-22 ATS record versus 3-point shooting teams making 36 percent of their attempts.

Orlando this season can play the “what ever you can do, we can do better” game. The Magic are back home after sweeping a four game road trip with four covers and are the best road squad in the NBA. They are 8-1 ATS after playing a game as a road underdog and are 14-4 ATS after three or more consecutive wins this season. The largest defeat Dwight Howard’s team has suffered was at the hands of Boston 107-88 as 8.5-point road underdogs and they are 22-3 ATS revenging a same season loss vs opponent. Though Orlando is one spot behind Boston in field goal percentage defense at third, the Magic are perfect 12-0 ATS versus offensive teams scoring 99 or more points per game this season.

Bookmaker.com has Orlando as 4.5-point favorites with a total of 192.5. The Magic may have two psychological edges in this meeting in Central Florida. The first is Jameer Nelson missed the Dec.1 meeting and is back playing the best basketball of his NBA career and the Magic have won six in a row at home over the Celtics (5-1 ATS) giving them a further boost of confidence. The teams are a combined 21-13-1 UNDER in home/road dichotomy, with Boston 11-2 UNDER after four straight wins by 10 points or more and the Orlando 15-5 UNDER after scoring 100 points or more four straight outings.

Magic coach Stan Van Gundy is trying to keep this one game in perspective. “I’ve said all along, and I honestly think it’s true: If they’ll give us two wins for the Boston game, then I’ll make it bigger than the other games,” Van Gundy said. “Otherwise, it’s not.”

While the coach may feel this way, not all of his players are buying what the coach is selling. “It means a lot,” Magic forward Rashard Lewis said. “Obviously, Eastern Conference game, one of the best teams in the conference, last year’s champion. We’re at a point where we want to get home-court advantage throughout the whole playoffs, so this game means a lot. At the end of the season, it’s going to come down to games like this.”

No matter what, this is the opener on TNT NBA Thursday starting at 8 Eastern and it should be compelling.

Betting the Best in the NBA

Recently had a discussion with a fellow NBA sports bettor, touching on the variety of different ways of looking at games and situations to find the best way to show a profit. This is a hard sport to grind out wins anyways and if you are resistant to change, you are doomed for failure betting this sport.

Part of our talk was whether it was really a good idea to bet on the best teams in the NBA. We discussed the number of points oddsmakers would add on popular or winning teams, thus eliminating any value. Though we were both in agreement, when one of these teams is hot, it is ridiculous to be on the sidelines watching a top level club roll up five or more spread covers, waiting for them to lose.

After getting off the phone, the thought occurred, what about tracking the spread records of NBA teams based on opponent’s performance. In looking at the standings, I broke the winning percentages down into three categories:

61 percent or high (Good Teams)
40 to 60 percent (Average Teams)
39 percent or lower (Bad Teams)

What I was looking for is how the best teams in the NBA played against various levels of competition against the spread. Ideally, my first thought was to find the opposing team’s record at the time of game played, to have a static method of reviewing them. Not being able to find such numbers without going game by game, cross-referencing each contest, decided to use current standings, which ultimately is likely a better barometer, since all teams go through hot and cold spells. This does create a moving target of sorts as teams could move from one category to the next, altering records. In the end, based on complete schedule, it would all work out.

The Orlando Magic at the moment have the best spread record in the NBA at 27-12 ATS. Despite having the third-best overall record in the NBA at 31-8, they have not receiving much publicity, with the Lakers, Boston and LeBron James and Cleveland dominating most of the headlines. What is impressive about the Magic’s season is how consistent they have been against teams from all levels against the spread.

6-3 ATS - 61 percent or high
10-6 ATS - 40 to 60 percent
10-4 ATS - 39 percent or lower

The Cleveland Cavaliers have the best record in the league at 30-7 and second best mark versus the number at 26-11. The Cavs have been crushing bad teams with 10-3 ATS record and are 11-7 ATS against average or mid-level teams. What stands out is how few games they have played against the best competition. Cleveland have only had five games against teams with 61 percent or higher win percentage (4-1 ATS) and though they have done very well, it will be intriguing to watch what they do going forward.

The Boston Celtics had a recent dry spell in losing six of eight, yet have not been as domineering as last season as champs. Boston is .500 facing teams from the top two tiers and 8-7 ATS versus the poorer teams in the NBA, hardly a good wager.

The majority of better teams continue to be in the Western Conference, but that also means more wars to have to fight thru. The Los Angeles Lakers have the top record in their conference at 31-7 and continue to have oddsmakers pile numbers on them, which is why they are 18-20 ATS. The Lakers level of interest on nightly basis shows up in this exercise. When facing top competitors that can bring out the best in them, L.A. is 7-4 ATS. When playing ordinary clubs they are 8-7 ATS, however the dullards of the NBA bore the Lakers and it shows with 4-10 spread mark if they take on teams with 39 percent or lower win percentage.

Though San Antonio defeated the Lakers the other night, they at this point of the season are no longer an elite club. Before giving the current results, I’ll throw out the caveat of not having full team together early and Manu Ginobili still doesn’t look like the same player of a few years ago (my guess is he never will be) which has hurt the Spurs. Nevertheless, a 2-8 ATS mark against the best the NBA has to offer is more Memphis-like than San Antonio. Where the Spurs have done their best work is cleaning up on the bottom of the barrel with 10-4 ATS record versus bad teams.

Though Denver and New Orleans are still very solid clubs, they have deficiencies. The Nuggets are 6-8 ATS playing top tier teams and New Orleans is finding being the hunted, rather than the hunter much more challenging at 16-18-1 ATS overall and 7-8 ATS taking on the best.

These figures will change as the season moves along, yet is a good method to follow David Stern’s moneymakers, when taking on NBA teams of all abilities.

Top NBA Teams Trickier to Bet Now

The NBA season is one of the most mentally and physically grueling there is in professional sports. No matter how good or a bad a team is, eventually the 82- game grind catches up with you. This can be especially troubling for NBA bettors, since it is widely considered the most difficult sport to bet sides on, since you are not only going against sharp numbers on a daily basis, but having to speculate on the mental condition of any given team, no matter how good your power ratings are or whatever methods you are inclined to use.

With the regular season approaching the mid-point of the year, boredom is often one of factors that play a huge part in how NBA players perform. The beginning of the season energized the good teams or those who were presumed to be good. Now 30-plus games into the season and the playoffs months away, it is easy for teams to lose focus, especially against inferior competition, whom they would normally toy with if in the mood.

The defending NBA champion Boston Celtics are a veteran bunch at most key positions and they started the season right where they left off in battering opponents by over 13 points a game, showing little mercy if the opponent choose not to put in four quarters of work. From the middle of November until Christmas Day, Boston won 19 games in a row, tying for the third longest streak in NBA history before succumbing to the Lakers in Los Angeles. During that amazing stretch, the Celtics won by an average of 14.6 points per game and were 13-6 against the oddsmakers, being a superb Play On club.

Since having the long winning streak snapped, Boston has played indifferent basketball. Doc Rivers’ team ended up losing three of four on Western swing and came home and walloped Washington and was totally disinterested in losing at New York 100-88 as 10.5 point favorites two nights later. Now would be a good time to be very selective with Paul Pierce and company, as the team looks for motivational spots to succeed.

The L.A. Lakers had a similar circumstance; theirs just came earlier in December. On December 1, Kobe Bryant and friends had already put together two win streaks of seven games and stood at 14-1. A one point loss at Indiana didn’t set off any alarms, since it was immediately followed by a 114-102 win over Philadelphia. Two nights later a close 106-104 victory at Washington signaled something might not be right and did that turn out to be true for the NBA bettor. Starting with the Wizards game, the Gold and Purple-clad Lakers would go on to lose an unconscionable 10 games in a row against the spread, though winning outright seven times. The oddsmakers likely feasted on all the Lakers money coming in, since they had to cover at some point, right? (Those that “chase” losses, have moved into one bedroom flats, trying to figure out next move)

What finally broke the cycle for Phil Jackson’s team was the role of an underdog on December 23 in New Orleans (just their second of the season, both in New Orleans), catching 2.5 points and routing the Hornets 100-87. This brought back the focus along with big win at home against Boston and the Lakers are now on new six-game winning streak, with five continuous covers.
What brought the Lakers back to winning ways, defensive intensity. While failing to cover the number in 10 consecutive games, they allowed over 101 points per game. Since then, L.A. has surrendered just 93.8 PPG.

No team is immune from a prolonged NBA campaign, even a younger team with fresher legs. The Cleveland Cavaliers haven’t received tremendous notary this season, since both of last year’s NBA finalists have played so well. That is not to say Cleveland is the Clippers when it comes to pub, especially with LeBron James, let’s just say it quieter.

From Nov. 3 until Dec. 23, Cleveland was beastly 23-2, with absolutely sick 18-5 ATS record. The Cavaliers were scintillating, tearing apart teams like a seven year old opening Christmas presents. A full 18 of their 23 victories were by 10 or more points and 14 of those were by 14 or more points. Finally, Cleveland could go no further. The schedule brought them woeful Washington twice and a back to back with an above average Miami team proved little incentive, as the Cavs are on 1-4 ATS bender, which includes a pair of losses. No doubt the Friday encounter with Boston will get the juices flowing again, but you have to be very careful.

Betting basketball every day is not easy, but it sure helps to know when to ride or get off hot teams. The more you know the better you will do.