CFB Pre-Season Magazines offer intrigue

An annual right of summer is to gather the various college football magazines and go over the predictions from each conference. As a writer and sports handicapper, I have been pouring over data for months now and have strong feelings and opinions about how the various conferences races could play out. Part of winning college football wagers is having the necessary information to place your self into a position to win. This is why I annually make pilgrimages to the various book stores to purchase all the magazines (thankfully, the StatFox Edge was delivered to me) containing college football material.

The reasons for doing this are attaining knowledge and giving myself the best chance to win. First, I’m seeking information on the coaches and teams I may have missed in my own personal research. No matter how hard or far you dig, you will always find other useful nuggets. Next, is learning about all the players, particularly the difference-makers on each team, which is a powerful tool to understand if a team may be over or underrated before the season starts. Lastly, just to see what other so-called experts believe in making predictions. For example, in the Big East, FIVE DIFFERENT teams have been chosen to finish first and earn the BCS berth, talk about a difference of opinion! This is worth reading to understand why these publications would have such varying of beliefs. You can judge for yourself if the points are valid or just nonsense. Plus this allows one to find strong situations to place futures wagers at places like DiamondSportsbook.com on particular teams.

Listed below is the accumulation of all the conferences and the teams ranked in order, taking all the pre-season publications that were acquired, along with further analysis. Today we will at the ACC, Big East, MWC, Big 12, WAC, C-USA and Independents.

ACC -Atlantic
1) Florida State
2) Clemson
3) N.C. State
4) Wake Forest
5) Boston College
6) Maryland


ACC – Coastal
1) Virginia Tech
2) Georgia Tech
3) North Carolina
4) Miami
5) Virginia
6) Duke

Analysis- Virginia Tech ended the ACC’s eight-year BCS bowl drought with 20-7 win over Cincinnati in the Orange Bowl last season. Now, coach Frank Beamer wants to climb back into the national spotlight and an opening game victory over Alabama could do just that. Virginia Tech is unanimous choice to play in ACC title tilt. Georgia Tech has 17 starters back and is thought to be the only team in the Coastal Division to give the Hokies a run. Butch Davis is acquiring more talent annually in Chapel Hill; however the offensive losses hold North Carolina back. Florida State was almost everyone’s pick to capture the Atlantic Division, as talent is getting back towards the glory years, still with quite a ways to go. Clemson and North Carolina State are the most likely contenders to take down the Seminoles. Both have offensive weapons, which are curtailed with defensive deficiencies. The Nov. 14 contest in Raleigh could be meaningful. Its clearer today why Tom O’Brien left Boston College, as the Eagles could be grounded. This conference has a great deal of ground to makeup to be in elite status, but should be competitive. They must find the right place for ACC title game, since the crowds are embarrassment to league.

Big East
1) West Virginia
2) South Florida
3) Rutgers
4) Pittsburgh
5) Cincinnati
6) Connecticut
7) Louisville
8) Syracuse

Analysis- Conference’s that are not particularly outstanding will talk about having balance. This can make for extraordinarily entertaining football on the campuses involved, but it plays havoc trying to pick a winner. In reviewing the different college football magazines, the Big East stood out with five different teams chosen to finish atop the conference. Here is the other really crazy aspect, four of the top five listed above were also picked to finish 5th. (Rutgers was exception, there lowest rating was 4th) What makes this conference so confounding is every positive is outweighed by a negative. New quarterbacks, changing defenses and sometimes questionable coaching, suggest this league is ripe for underdogs to flourish.

Mountain West
1) Utah
2) TCU
3) BYU
4) Air Force
5) Colorado State
6) UNLV
7) New Mexico
8) San Diego State
9) Wyoming

Analysis – Utah completed second unbeaten season in five years, with big time blowout win against Alabama in the Sugar Bowl. The Utes might not have finished with a perfect record, since they hosted nearest competitors TCU and BYU in Salt Lake City. Everything won’t be quite so easy in 2009, having to play those teams on the road in what should be three hotly-contested affairs between the best three squads in the Mountain West. The Horned Frogs are more settled on offense and has better athletes on defense than BYU, giving them slight edge. The rest of the conference will have three new head coaches and the chasm between the top teams and the rest is roughly about the length of the Continental Divide across the western United States.

Big 12 North
1) Nebraska
2) Kansas
3) Missouri
4) Colorado
5) Kansas State
6) Iowa State

Big 12 South
1) Texas
2) Oklahoma
3) Oklahoma State
4) Texas Tech
5) Baylor
6) Texas A&M

Analysis – The quarterback position in the Big 12 won’t have the same depth as last season; nevertheless the conference should feature more than enough firepower from its field generals. Current Heisman Trophy winner Sam Bradford returns to Oklahoma, just not with the same cast on offense that averaged video game-like 51.1 points per contest. The Sooners defense should be considerably tougher with nine starters back and they picked up a few first place votes over favored Texas. In almost any other year, Colt McCoy would have won the Heisman himself, after completing NCAA record 76.7 percent of pass attempts. The Longhorns only weak spots are finding every down running back and defensive linemen to chase down talented signal callers. Oklahoma State should break into top three in the South, with QB Zac Robinson, RB Kendall Hunter and WR Dez Bryant leading the way. In the North Division, Nebraska has few more talented football players than Kansas; however don’t count the Jayhawks out with Todd Reesing at the controls. Missouri will fall without Chase Daniels around. Colorado is sleeper pick (in this case good or bad), with 10 offensive starters back and home games against Kansas, Missouri and Nebraska. Buffs have only four starters returning on defense that ranked 78th in 2008.

WAC
1) Boise State
2) Nevada
3) Louisiana Tech
4) Fresno State
5) Hawaii
6) San Jose State
7) Utah State
8) Idaho
9) New Mexico State

Analysis- Last season was to be rebuilding year for Boise State and all they did was finish 12-0 and lost 17-16 to very good TCU outfit in the Poinsettia Bowl. Now the Broncos are still relatively youthful with a ton of experience and everyone’s choice to win the WAC yet again. In the unlikely event Boise State stumbles, look for Nevada to be ready to step in. The Wolf Pack has quarterback Colin Kaepernick, who plays like the Pistol offense was made for him. Louisiana Tech with 17 starters back in the fold and a running game that averaged 4.65 yards per carry could make noise in the WAC. If the Bulldogs should upset Nevada on the road in October, mark down Nov.6 as the biggest day ever potentially in Ruston, LA, with Boise State coming to town. Fresno State and Hawaii are middle of the pack in the WAC, with San Jose State the best of the rest.

Conference USA East Division
1) East Carolina
2) Southern Miss
3) Memphis
4) Marshall
5) Central Florida
6) UAB

Conference USA West Division
1) Houston
2) Tulsa
3) UTEP
4) SMU
5) Rice
6) Tulane

Analysis- The Big 12 offenses last season averaged a college football best 439.6 yards per game, guess who was second? That’s right football wizard, Conference USA at 401.8 yards per game. Every one has to find their niche in life and after much turmoil; C-USA is attracting offensive talent, which just isn’t determined good enough for the bigger conferences. It was also a banner postseason for the conference with 4-1 SU and ATS record. Houston has unfinished business of losing the West Division in last regular season contest to city rival Rice. Nearly everyone figures quarterback Case Keenum will finish the deal in 2009. Tulsa and UTEP are next in line, but several paces behind. In the East Division, a slight edge goes to East Carolina, being the surprise defending conference champions, with 18 regulars back in Greenville. Southern Miss is loaded as well, with 16 starters and they visit ECU on Nov. 28. The only true unanimous choice in C-USA action is UAB will finish last.

Independents
1) Notre Dame
2) Navy
3) Army

Analysis- Being the football coach and quarterback at Notre Dame are always pressure-packed positions, but maybe never more than this year. It’s BCS or join the unemployment line for Charley Weis in South Bend. Most magazines have Jimmy Clausen rated 13th to 23rd best quarterback in the country, if he’s not in Top 10 by season’s end, he and the Irish will have failed. The beat keeps rolling along for the Navy, with another winning season and minor bowl to compete in. Normally conservative Army stepped out of character and brought in Rich Ellerson to change results of 12 straight losing seasons. Ellerson was known innovator at Cal Poly and will install triple-option offense with passing efficiency a real key.

Part 2 - Friday

Looking in Rearview Mirror Betting College Football

One of the great things about being a college football sports bettor, you can live in the present and look towards the future. This week the BCS talk is running rampant, borderline Michael Douglas in “Falling Down”, with too many angry types speculating about everything that is wrong with the BCS system. It is far from a perfect system, but the drama is incredible.

Think about how watered-down the Texas Tech at Oklahoma upcoming game would be if both teams already new they were in an eight-team postseason. The Penn State loss at Iowa, no problem guys, shake it off, beat Michigan State and we’re still playing for the national championship. This is do-or-die drama, especially late in the season; it could hardly be more fun.

Those of us who wager on college football can join in on these borderline unhealthy discussions with more knowledge than your average fan, since we cover the entire scope of college football. We might have our favorite teams or know more about a certain conference depending on our proximity; however we are much more informed, even as our personal opinions differ. Just like the coach preaches, we play’em one week at a time and let somebody else worry about what might happen.

Texas Tech was extremely impressive against Oklahoma State. The Cowboys needed two more players on defense to either create a pass rush to stop quarterback Graham Harrell or more help in the secondary. After awhile it was like watching Gary Busey on Celebrity Rehab, you just felt sorry for Okie State. What is most impressive is the play the Red Raiders are getting on both sides of the line of scrimmage. Harrell could have worn a dress suit and gone out to eat after the game, with nary a wrinkle with the protection he received. Though the defense is unheralded, they make enough of a mess to spoil the other team’s offensive flow. In a league where the offense overflows more than Pamela Anderson, the best way to measure the Texas Tech defense is points allowed in their last three games.

Kansas averages 34.5 PPG – scored 21 vs Texas Tech
Texas averages 44.3 PPG – scored 33 vs Texas Tech
Oklahoma State averages 42.8 PPG – scored 20 vs. Texas Tech

The Red Raiders are the first team since Oklahoma in 1984 to defeat a number one team and beat a Top 10 club the following week.

You think the Rose Bowl and wagering outlets were worried about Ohio State- USC rematch; they might have a bigger conundrum on their hands. If Penn State and Oregon State win out, they are set for rematch in Pasadena from Sept.6, when the Nittany Lions pulverized the Beavers 45-14 in Happy Valley. You can bet the West Coast crowd is praying Oregon State loses, setting up JoPa against Pete Carroll. Have to hand it to coach Mike Riley and Oregon State as they are peeking again late in the season. As noted in the Platinum Sheet, they have won a won a minimum of three of last five games of the regular season all but once in the last nine seasons.

For the first time ever, the Mid-American Conference beat their Midwestern heavyweight neighbor four times. Not really sure if that points to the MAC being improved in 2008 or that the Big 10 (11) is brutal. Here’s one other little known fact this season about these two conferences, the MAC was 4-9 straight up, yet covered 10 of 13 meetings. HUMMMM

Nice to see Charley Weis of Notre Dame come to the rescue of suddenly inept offense after being shutout by Boston College 17-0. That’s the second posted zero in last 14 games for the offensive genius. He made it clear that he had nothing to do with being blanked directly and will try to resurrect the offense against defensive powerhouses Navy and Syracuse. His true genius will be shown when his team finishes the season at USC. I never bought into this 9-3 or 10-2 business Beano Cook or others were selling, thinking 7-5 seemed about right. Until Weis can start bringing in offensive and defensive linemen that have ability and bad intentions, there won’t be much fight in the Irish.

This past week was a bad week to be a big home favorite or a home team catching points. Double digit home chalk was 5-9-2 against the spread last week, making them 23-39-3 ATS the last month. After posting positive numbers a week ago, home underdogs returned to sorry ways with 5-11 ATS figure. They are 32-58-3 ATS the last five weeks.

Quick notes- Do you think the Oklahoma Sooners offense is peaking? In their last three games they have averaged 47.3 points per game, in the first half!

If you think the Big 12 South is a confusing mess, try the ACC. Every team in the conference has two losses, meaning tie-breakers deluxe are a possibility to determine who plays in the conference championship game. Not surprisingly with this kind of balance, ACC home teams are 18-13 and 15-16 ATS. Also, home underdogs at 5-2 against the spread should make perfect sense this season.

Most preseason magazines had Iowa in the bottom half of the Big 10 standings. Based on their schedule and defense, believed they would finish fourth in the conference. Coach Kirk Ferentz has his team positioned to finish strong after Penn State upset and their four losses have been by a total of 12 points. The Hawkeyes are younger, which could mean even better days ahead for the honest and glib Ferentz.

In the SEC, Florida is showing they just might be not only the best team in the conference, but in the country the way they are playing. On the other hard, Tennessee coaches are to blame, but the Volunteers players should embarrassed for how they played in losing to Wyoming 13-7 as 27-point home favorites. Departing Phil Fulmer deserves to be criticized for letting program slip, but the guys in the orange jerseys are culpable also for not beating a team that has been outscored by the top four teams in the Mountain West Conference 161-13.

The Texas A&M defense is slower than an express checkout lane as the grocery store.

West Virginia is stuck with Bill Stewart as coach and the program will sink. My guess is the Pittsburgh at Cincinnati Big East conflict on Nov.22 will decide who wins the BCS berth, other games not withstanding.

As the Cold Winds of November blow, Know your Football Numbers

The month of November for much of the country sees thick dark low clouds become a more regular occurrence; a foreshadowing what lies ahead in the coming months. In the South and West, the days are often still sunny, but the thermometer takes a much slower climb to reach the daytime highs as the cooler nights linger much longer. Betting college football is also in transition in November. All the conference races head down the final stretch to figure out the winners. Bowl slots are determined by how teams finish in the standings, some pleased, and others not so much. The rhetoric about what teams deserve to play in the national championship game and fill the BCS bowls hits a fever pitch and upsets happen in the most unlikely places, like Pittsburgh upsetting West Virginia, spoiling their chance at the title last year.

November is not for the faint of heart, since just because a team needs to win, doesn’t mean they do. Inevitably the cream rises to the top. The very best teams hit their stride, reaching the next plateau in accomplishments. These teams are identifiable by the physical nature of which they play. The stronger teams become stronger and beat teams that are wearing down having been wearing the pads since August. Typically these squads have a solid running game and pass the ball with greater efficiency. The defense has the ability to make the opponent one-dimensional and expose their weaknesses.

The pretenders are exposed, having gotten by with an easier schedule to this point or maybe a pass defense has not been fully exploited and now faces teams that have studied the tape on them and have the ability to take advantage of their shortcomings. Another scenario that happens every November is injuries mount and no matter how well you have played and survived to this point, the reserves are just not as good and these teams lose.

For the 11th month on the calendar, trends can be very useful source since they paint a picture about the recent history of a team. That’s not to say you should trust these trends unequivocally, rather a good starting point to help formulate good a quality wager.

Certain teams have a home/ road dichotomy, playing well at home and not on the road. Two teams that fit this profile perfectly are highly ranked Oklahoma State and fellow Big 12 partner Texas A&M. The Cowboys are having a remarkable campaign under coach Mike Gundy with one of the most powerful offenses in the country. The defense continues to improve and they are set to have a great finish, especially when playing at home where Oklahoma State is 11-3-2 against the spread at Boone Pickens Stadium. What bettors have to watch out for is Okie State on the road, being 5-11-1 ATS as November visitors.

Mike Sherman was brought in to Texas A&M to turnaround the football program and the changes he has made have been sweeping, probably to the detriment of this year’s club. The offense has at least started scoring points, but the defense is slower than my uncle reaching to grab the check for dinner. With this conundrum, the Aggies are sure to add to 4-13 ATS record on the road. However, with the offense improving and with the help of the famous 12th man at College Station, backing A&M at home with 10-3-2 spread record isn’t all bad.

It always helps to accentuate the positive and large group of universities have stellar November records. You will find teams that do well at home, others on the road or they just know how to finish the regular season. A couple of MAC teams are not up to previous standards, nevertheless are worth a look this month based on the past. Miami-Ohio is 28-12 and 24-14-2 ATS since Tom Hanks won second straight Oscar for Forrest Gump. (1995). Toledo has also been a strong closer with 14-6 mark and 13-6-1 ATS record.

One team on nobody’s radar is UL-Monroe, maybe it’s time to play attention with 6-1 and 7-0 ATS record the last two years. Michigan State is another good club this month, playing the power game and they are 18-10-2 ATS in November. Let’s not forget the best team in the country, as Texas is 19-9-2 ATS to finish the regular season.

Missouri has delivered for college football bettors with 18-9 ATS road record since 1999 and Miami-Fl. have the same winning percentage with 14-7 spread mark. Mississippi State seldom attains notoriety, but delivers well on the road with 17-10-1 ATS record this month.

Though this season has been bumpy, East Carolina flourishes at home with recent 6-1 number against the linemakers. Fresno State is 7-3 ATS in raisin country and Virginia Tech before its always wildly enthusiastic fans is 17-7-1 in November contests in Blacksburg.

It can be difficult to comprehend why seemingly top notch programs don’t deliver better wagering results late in the year, especially at home. The most reliable theory is teams are comfortable playing before the home fans, lacking that edginess necessary to put away conference rivals. With the stakes usually high, the opposing teams are also fighting for conference honors or seeking to pull that last upset which could make their season. If these battles are close in the fourth quarter, the coach of the more skilled home team becomes more conservative and looks more to survive to play another day, than risk peddle to the mettle.

Unbeaten Alabama has been such a team with unsightly 4-16-2 ATS figure at home in November and fellow SEC member LSU, is right with the Crimson Tide as a home play against team with 5-16 ATS record. Despite Boston College’s continued growth and playing in the colder Northeast, they have failed to cover seven of the last nine tilts on Chestnut Hill late in the year.

Earlier, teams being exposed for playing poor defense were mentioned and UTEP fits the bill, with 5-13 record, covering the number a measly three times.

There is no shortage of road teams who fail miserably in November, take a gander.

Army 6-15 ATS
Baylor 4-13-1 ATS
Bowling Green 10-17 ATS
Kansas 4-20 ATS
Marshall 4-12 ATS
Nebraska 5-9-1 ATS
TCU 3-8-1 ATS
Wake Forest 5-15 ATS

There are other schools that flounder in November, with losing wagers go hand in hand. Tulane is 3-9 straight up and against the spread in the month where Thanksgiving resides. Florida Atlantic from the Sun Belt Conference is 4-10 ATS and New Mexico State from the WAC is whacked posting 10-19 ATS numbers. Kent State is 4-22 this month and 8-18 ATS, hardly a cause for thanksgiving, unless you are on the other side.

When it comes to the understanding college football in the last major month of the regular season, be knee-deep in knowledge supporting the right teams that will make you a winner.