NBA Playoffs offer Monday choices

The first day of last work week of April offers a little something for every sports bettor. Will Orlando be the only team to perform a first round sweep or does Charlotte show pride and head off the inevitable. Milwaukee showed up for Game 3 and ended scrubbing the floor with Atlanta’s jayvee road team. The Bucks will try and even the series. So much for Phoenix having an easy time with Portland, now the thought process has to be who wants it more.

Orlando at Charlotte 8:00E TNT

Without reading the entire boxscore, finding out Vince Carter, Dwight Howard and Rashard Lewis would score 37 points on 12 for 29 shooting in Charlotte; it would be assumed Orlando would have fallen.

But as J.R.R. Tolkien once said “Even the smallest person can change the course of the future.” This is precisely what 6’0 Jameer Nelson has done; scoring 32 points in 90-86 win in Game 3 to lead the Magic to victory.

Nelson is averaging 25.7 points per game and has a turnover about every 36 minutes of play in this series. “I’m not out there trying to shoot every shot,” Nelson said. “It just happens that sometimes you have to, especially if you have it going.”

Orlando now has a commanding 3-0 lead and is 12-0 ATS after a win by six points or less this season. Because the Bobcats don’t have the offensive firepower to match the Magic, it’s more a matter of who wants to win this game than overall ability.

Charlotte is 18-5 ATS having lost four of their last five games and veteran coach and vagabond Larry Brown knows what he has seen in the series. “It hasn’t been the defense that has let us down,” Brown said. “Defensive rebounds have been a problem. Turnovers have been a problem. And I think more than anything is poor execution on offense.”

Orlando is a four-point pick and is 25-14 ATS as a road favorite of four points or less and is 21-11 UNDER in this role. The Bobcats will attempt to stave off elimination and are 20-9 ATS after a game as a home underdog, losing by 2.7 points per contest.

Atlanta at Milwaukee 8:30E NBA-TV

Coach Mike Woodson said his Atlanta club has to learn to deal with adversity, especially on the road, you think!

Hey coach, what about if they just decide to act like they even care about giving effort on the playoff road for goodness sake. (This is family website, thus language tempered) Consider Luc Mbah a Moute, Kurt Thomas and Dan Gadzuric of Milwaukee had a decided advantage over Josh Smith, Al Horford and Marvin Williams just by trying, something the team in the ATL jerseys just are not interested in.

This team is supposed to be maturing, but after Saturday’s debacle, the Hawks have lost eight of nine road playoffs games the last three years, with the average margin of defeat 22.6 PPG.

“I still think we’re a team that’s still learning how to win, like all teams in this league,” Woodson said. “It’s not easy winning on the road, and I never use that as an excuse, but that’s reality.” Losing is one thing but being blown out and man-handled is quite another. Dating back several seasons, this franchise is 2-12 ATS on the road in the first round of the playoffs.

This has to give the Bucks a great deal of confidence and maybe those signs around town spooked Atlanta – Fear the Deer.

Milwaukee is 8-1 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more this season; nevertheless is not getting ahead of itself. “There was a lot of pressure on us to come out and win Game 3,” rookie Brandon Jennings said. “But we can’t celebrate. We’ve got to come back Monday and do the same thing.”

DiamondSportsbook.com has established the Hawks as 1.5-point favorites with 191 total, if for no other reason to some pride. Atlanta is 8-1 ATS and 8-1 OVER off a double digit defeat. The Andrew Bogut-less Bucks are 14-4 ATS after scoring 105 points or more and are 14-2 OVER as a home deer, whoops, dog of three points or less.

Portland at Phoenix 10:30E TNT

Right before the series, the big news in the basketball desert was Portland was not going to have their best play Brandon Roy, who was having minor surgery on a torn meniscus. Phoenix went out and celebrated their good fortune by going thru the motions in the series opener, falling by five as eight-point favorites.

The Suns took this series seriously the next two contests, pummeling Portland by 29 and 19 points respectively and got their swagger back, making this look like a five-game series was about to unfold.

However, word was Roy’s procedure was so minor he was able to shoot free throws and do straight line running within days and low and behold he was in uniform for Game 4.
With the theme of “Rocky” playing at the Rose Garden, a delirious crowd welcomes backed their superstar and Phoenix fell for it.

It was clear Roy lacked any lateral quickness, but the Suns coaches and players had a welcoming committee whenever he touched the ball, bring an extra man to guard him, for reasons unknown, freeing up other Blazers players.

“As soon as he checked into the game, I got my first open shot with nobody guarding me, so I was thinking thank God he’s back,” Aldridge said with his team 15-4 ATS after two or more Under’s.

Amare Stoudemire brought up what is becoming an annoying theme to Suns fans and backers. “We didn’t bring it, we just didn’t bring it,” Stoudemire said. “We realized how important the game was. We didn’t bring the effort, we didn’t bring the energy, we didn’t rebound, we didn’t attack. We had a chance to go up 3-1, which would have been great. Now we’ve got to go back to a must-win situation.”

Phoenix is 25-14 ATS after playing a road game and is a six-point favorite with total of 202. If the Suns expect to win this first round Western series they have to force the tempo and are 22-6 OVER at home after two away encounters.

Portland at least knows they are going back home, as they are 0-8 ATS off an upset win as a home underdog.

NBA homers have to come thru

Charlotte and Milwaukee are in 0-2 holes and will be looking for energy from the home patrons attempting to hold serve in what is a must win scenario. Oklahoma City got the first of two they needed in Game 3 and also have to come up with a another victory, fully understanding what a daunting task it would be to go to L.A. having to win down 3-1 in the series. The roundball adventure continues for home clubs needing to come up big.

Orlando at Charlotte 2:00E TNT

Gerald Wallace and Stephen Jackson have accounted for 51.2 percent of the Bobcats offense, which suggests that others have to tickle the twine since Charlotte’s has two “L’s” to begin the series.

Charlotte is not a good outside shooting team, depending more on slashing and driving to the rim and collecting fouls for free throw attempts. Their loss Wednesday night was perfect illustration off what has gone wrong.

The Bobcats could not solve Orlando’s defensive schemes and committed 19 turnovers and had 17 fewer attempts from the charity stripe than the Magic (35-18).

"Our defense is keeping us in it, and our offense is keeping us out of the game," said center Tyson Chandler. "We can't come off what we do and just look for our jump shots. We're not a jump-shot team and not a 1-on-1 team.” Charlotte is 9-18 ATS after not covering two of their last three against the spread this season.

The Bobcats have to rev up the offense and are 15-5 ATS after scoring 80 points or less and 16-5 ATS after totaling 35 points or less in the first half.

They are two-point underdogs to Orlando, with total of 184.5 and the Magic are 16-4 ATS off two exact home contests. Coach Stan Van Gundy will seek similar balance as the last contest with five double digit scorers and the top four averaging 10-12 shots each.
Orlando has won five of last six in downtown Charlotte, covering four times and the UNDER is 5-1.

Atlanta at Milwaukee 7:30E ESPN

The Bucks have had ample time to correct their inadequacies, last playing Tuesday night. Milwaukee has been within contact in both games with Atlanta, but the general sense was the Hawks have not been really threatened in the series.

Milwaukee has to improve dramatically in transition defense if they expect to come out a winner in Game 3.

“As athletic as they are, it’s not like anybody’s dunking in a crowd on us. They’re wide open. The balls are going up, and they’re finishing them,” coach Scott Skiles explaining the 11 dunks and 19 layups his team allowed in the first two games. “All we’re comparing ourselves to is ourselves. We normally don’t give that stuff up. We need to not give that easy stuff up.”

The Bucks were the best cover team in the NBA this season at 51-28-3 ATS, but have dropped the first two in postseason. They are 14-4 ATS at the Bradley Center after two games as a road underdog.

The Bucks fans will be cascading boo’s down to Atlanta’s Josh Smith, who evidently has had too much time off and wants a part-time Travel Channel gig.

Smith was asked about what he would with his free time in Milwaukee and if he would ever vacation there. “Would you go? Would you go? Would you go up there?” Smith responded. “Everybody knows there ain’t nothing to do in Milwaukee, man. Everybody knows that.” Hello boo-birds.

Atlanta is a one-point underdog at Bookmaker.com and will be presented with a challenge, since Milwaukee is 19-6 and 14-10-1 ATS at home in 2010, however two of the spread losses have come from the Hawks. The Bucks are 13-4 ATS after three straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers and the Birds are 4-16 ATS as visitors in all playoff matchups.

L.A. Lakers at Oklahoma City 9:30E ESPN

The Lakers had been dismissing talk of uninspired play for over a month, saying when the playoffs arrived they would be like a warship ready for battle, with all hands on deck. In their first true challenge of the playoffs (a No. 1 seed winning at home over a No. 8 doesn’t count), Los Angeles lacked the mental and physical capacity to succeed on the road, losing in the fourth quarter to Oklahoma City.

The Thunder outworked and showed greater desire in winning the crucial final 12 minutes 27-21, after holding one-point lead in the final stanza.

Oklahoma City is now 6-1 ATS against teams with a winning road record of late and can even this series if the Phil Jackson’s lethargic club settles for long jumps shots (31 three-point attempts) and doesn’t work the ball better into the paint. When Serge Ibaka and Nick Collison were paired together, they bottled up the Lakers big men in the lane and they offered little resistance in demanding the ball.

Though smaller in stature, OKC’s big guys were superior in boxing out the taller L.A. bunch and destroyed them on the glass with effort and hustle 53-39.

Kobe Bryant and his teammates continue to be play without discipline and have the patience of a three year old. Kevin Durant had more free throws than the Lake Show (13-12) and Bryant returned to selfish ways of seeking his shot, which could be a function of the rest of the Lakers players not actively working to take quality shots. It’s no wonder they are 13-24 ATS in second half of the season this season.

The Thunder are two-point favorites and are 13-3 ATS when the favored by 4.5 or less, with L.A. 2-8 ATS in reverse role of 4.5 or fewer points underdog. With the total at 193.5, the purple clad Lakers are 12-4 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3 this season, losing by 1.9 points a game.

Are NBA home teams wise bets tonight?

Orlando and Dallas each won their opening first round game and look to build a solid 2-0 lead in their series before taking to the road for a pair. Both teams have been a solid investment of late; however both are matched against division foes that know them well. Can they continue to win or do two coaching legends come up with ways to not only cover the spread, but derail plans of sweeping the initial home encounters.

Coach we’re paying attention, really

The Magic rather easily built a 22-point in the third quarter against Charlotte, before the Bobcats got with the program and started to play closer to their abilities.

Charlotte was too excited to start Game 1 – “We were a little nervous starting off the game, and they knew it,” forward Gerald Wallace said.

But with some well-timed coaxing from coach Larry Brown, Charlotte battled back to 85-80 by being the aggressor and getting Dwight Howard off his game with extremely physical play.
Howard admitted to receiving little sleep the night before, anxious to start the playoffs and he played liked someone tired and irritable with not enough time on the pillow. Howard had as many fouls as points (5), playing less than 28 minutes. “Superman” was less than super with only seven boards and took silly fouls.

“Their big guys are going to hit him every chance they get. And if he gets one foul retaliating, they’ve done their job,” Magic coach Stan Van Gundy said. “He can’t get any of those. He’s just going to have to understand no matter how many times they hit him, he can’t hit back. We need him on the floor.”

Orlando came up just short of covering the 9.5-point spread with 98-89 victory and is 21-11 ATS off a home win this season.

The Bobcats are expected to be much more relaxed this time with Wallace and Stephen Jackson as the scoring leaders. Charlotte is 18-9 ATS versus good three point shooting teams (36 percent or higher) and must do a better job containing Jameer Nelson, who was 4-8 from beyond the arc and scored 24 of his 32 points in the second half. Nelson missed the first three rounds of the playoffs a year ago and wants to show his skills this spring.

The Magic are 18-5 ATS off two or more consecutive home wins and are 20-3 and 15-7-1 ATS since the beginning of March. DiamondSportsbook.com has them as 8.5-point pick with total of 186 and they are 17-7 UNDER off a no-cover where they won straight up as a favorite.

If Orlando loses focus again, Charlotte will try to sneak right in and Jordanaires are 22-9 ATS after covering two of last three against the spread and are 16-5 OVER playing only their second game in a week.

In Dirk we trust

It’s often been said in NBA circles that if Dirk Nowitzki is your best player, the chances of NBA title are remote. In his career, Nowitzki has had his postseason up and downs, however has been a much steadier performer in recent years. His Game 1 effort against oft-seen rival San Antonio, deep in the heart of Texas, was close to perfection.

Nowitzki scored 36 points on 12-14 shooting, wore out the nets sinking all 12 free throw attempts and grabbed seven boards while committing a single turnover. “Sometimes,” Nowitzki said, “you have one of those nights where the basket is big.”

The Mavericks have now defeated the Spurs six straight times on their home floor (5-1 ATS) and were the bigger and more aggressive team on Sunday. Erick Dampier and Brendan Haywood out-muscled and out-hustled San Antonio, contributing to 45-37 edge on the glass.

Richard Jefferson was brought to San Antonio to make them younger on the wings and add speed and quickness. For most of the season he’s looked lost in black uniform and he was non-factor again with four points on four shots. The Spurs are piteous 9-23 ATS revenging a road loss the last two seasons.

Coach Gregg Popovich’s defensive strategy might have to be altered if Nowitzki starts Game 2 where he left off. San Antonio played the German forward straight up with approximately five different defenders, eschewing the double team, trying to cover the other Mavs.

Tony Parker lacked his usual zip to the rim and the Spurs ball-handling was atrocious with 17 turnovers, 11 in the opening 12 minutes.

Dallas is a 3.5-point home favorite and coach Rick Carlisle leaned heavy on his starters, with only three subs seeing significant time. The Mavericks have built six-game winning streak (5-0-1 ATS) and despite a yearlong of bad angles, they are 18-7 ATS playing with two days rest since last season.

San Antonio lacked their usual crispness and is 1-8 ATS versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists a game. The Spurs are 23-9 OVER in revenge-mode off a road loss.
Both NBA playoff battles are on TNT, with the first game at 7:05 Eastern.

NBA Eastern Conference Series Outlook

The East looks to be about as exciting as another episode rerun of Law and Order. Everyone is expecting the chalk to play thru to Cleveland and Orlando rematch, with oddsmakers seeing the Cavaliers and Magic switching places. One fun aspect is how angry most of the Eastern Conference teams are. Cleveland’s mad because they feel they should have already won a title. Orlando’s peeved because most experts don’t believe they are good enough to win championship. Atlanta is fuming because of lack of respect and Boston is raging because they believe they are better than they’ve played. Milwaukee’s unhappy about losing Andrew Bogut and Miami’s piqued about talk of one man team. The Bulls are essentially “no comment” on head coach and VP being involved in heated confrontation and Charlotte’s coach Larry Brown is just mad about being Larry Brown. All lines courtesy of DiamondSportsbook.com.

(1) Cleveland vs (8) Chicago

At present, there is no denying the Cleveland Cavaliers their due. Cleveland had the best record in the NBA at 61-21, which included tossing away the final four games of the regular season, resting the league’s best player LeBron James. If you discard the non-efforts in April against the other elite teams in the NBA, the Cavaliers were 9-2 and 8-3 ATS against all other clubs seeded one-thru-three. Without question, this is the deepest most complete squad James has had since taking up residence in Cleveland area. The Cavs are fourth in field goal percentage defense and third in field goals made and yes they still will bog down on offense occasionally, but have additional weapons like Antawn Jamison and J.J. Hickson to compliment other aspects. The Cavaliers are +160 favorites to win it all and should.

Chicago received a dubious prize for making the NBA Playoffs on the last day of the season, but you can’t compete and learn how to get better unless you make it this far and truly determine where you need to improve. The Bulls are really young and can play like a bunch of kids on the playground with the public doubting they can even win a game. Point guard Derrick Rose seems to work well with Kirk Hinrich and as long as the former Kansas product is making jump shots, the duo can give the Cavs problems in the backcourt. In the frontcourt, Chicago has to match physicality, but don’t overdo it, since the Cavaliers have more options. Luol Deng has to be big in this series. Da Bulls are 17-7 ATS in road games vs. teams making six or more three-point shot a contest in the second half of the season.

Though Cleveland gave away much of April, the last thing they want is extended series, nonetheless, you can bet coach Mike Anderson would prefer four challenging tilts to toughen up his team, with Cavs the winner each time. Anderson’s group is 11-2 ATS versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds a game on the season.

3DW Pick- Cleveland (-2800) in four over Chicago (+1600)

(2) Orlando vs (7) Charlotte

The Magic backed up their trip to last year’s NBA Finals with a strong regular season and look to duplicate that feat while creating a better ending. Orlando presents matchup problems for most teams as traditional defensive-mentality is to play inside the three-point circle and help off the wings and clog the lane. The Magic launch a myriad (most in NBA history this season) of three-pointers which frees up Dwight Howard to operate by himself in the paint, with an offensive game that is modestly improved from the past. Orlando is a good, not great defensive team individually, but having Howard as the last line of defense is the great equalizer, which is why the Magic led the league in field goal percentage defense. Focal point for Orlando will be Vince Carter, since Hedu Turkoglu was so clutch in last year’s playoffs; can an aging Vin-sanity play at the same level or beyond?

Charlotte is in the playoffs for the first time in their second spin as NBA franchise, now headed by Michael Jordan’s group. On paper or computer screen this doesn’t appear to be much of matchup and it might not be, but the Bobcats have angry dudes who will give their all. Gerald Wallace is a proven All-Star and contributes in all facets of the game. Stephen Jackson is big time and loves the moment as Dallas will attest to two seasons ago when they lost to Golden State with Jackson being one of the key components why. With Larry Brown as coach, Charlotte will be prepared and his players don’t hate him, yet, which means more inspired play. The larger question is will Brown end up coaching the entire series or be working on resume at Ladders, since he was quoted as saying this is where he wants to finish coaching career. (Nod if you’ve heard that before five or more times). The Bobcats are 23-11 ATS against top-level teams with 70 percent or higher win percentage the last three years.

This isn’t a good match for Charlotte, having lost 10 of 11 to Orlando (5-6 ATS) and if they lose the first two games in Mickey’s town, will the fickle Bobcats fan even bother to sellout two games for their team? The Magic are magical 19-3 and 15-6-1 ATS since March 1.

Pick- Orlando (-1000) in five over Charlotte (+600)

(3) Atlanta vs (6) Milwaukee

Do you get the feeling the Hawks are turning into the Atlanta Braves of the 1980’s? The Braves had great players like Dale Murphy and Bob Horner but never really accomplished a great deal, not being able to fill the rest of the holes. The Hawks are two years removed from almost upsetting Boston, who would go on to win NBA title. They won 53 games (the most in 12 years) this season yet ask any NBA insider or interested sports bettor if Atlanta is an elite club and a pause will come before a hesitant answer. The Hawks function best on offense when they are like the hamburger chain In-N-Out, dumping the ball into Al Horford and Josh Smith (both with limited offensive maneuvers) and kicking it out to shooters like Joe Johnson, Jamal Crawford and Mike Bibby. Expert the Hawks to want to fly up and down the court, ranked fourth in fast-break points at 16.2 per contest and they begin the series 30-13 ATS after playing two consecutive games as favorite this season.

It’s really a shame Milwaukee lost center Andrew Bogut, though he’s never been a factor against Atlanta, as a very strong case could be made he was the second best center in the Eastern Conference this season until unlucky fall. Though the injury limits aspects of what the Bucks can do, no reason for Milwaukee fans to be crying in their beer. John Salmons was the best pickup any team made before the trade deadline, bringing a scorer’s mentality and ability to get to basket; shooting over five three throws a game. Carlos Delfino and Jerry Stackhouse are excellent shooters when feet are gathered and Luke Ridnour adds a calming effect with his presence. Look for Milwaukee to play plenty of small-ball attempting to get open shots for quicker players or draw fouls for dead ball points.

At the All-Star break Milwaukee was 24-27, going nowhere, but caught fire finishing 22-9 (20-8-3 ATS) and were the only NBA teams with over fifty (51) spread wins this season. Head man Scott Skiles is the classic underdog coach, since that’s what he was as player and if Atlanta comes in over-confident against shortened Bucks bunch, this becomes arresting series.

Pick- Atlanta (-900) in six over Milwaukee (+550)

(4) Boston vs (5) Miami

How the true sports bettor wins is giving up on preconceived notions when the obvious is presented and not just grabbing the latest fad when it comes around. The Boston Celtics have won exactly half of their last 54 games (18-34-2 ATS), after starting 23-5. By now everyone has heard all the excuses as to why, but the facts are this is an average, aging basketball team led by players that can no longer deliver consistently, with a coach whose rah-rah style is no longer as appealing. In sticking with facts, the Celtics are 24-17 at home (12-28-1 ATS) which is five defeats more than the previous two regular seasons combined. Boston has lost seven contests since Feb. 25 by 10 or more points and 10 total overall, which is precisely one more whipping they received in the prior two campaigns totaled together. This club would seem to have more in common with Mary J. Blige than Rhinna.

While Boston has been a loser in seven of last 10 contests, Miami has been hotter the Beyonce, being winners in 12 of last lucky 13 (8-4-1 ATS). The Heat-wave has been a two-pronged factor, a manageable schedule and great defense. Though a few groans have emitted from the Miami locker room about playing at faster pace, coach Erik Spoelstra looks down the bench and doesn’t see production in terms of minutes and points, thus has decided to limit possessions and hope Dwayne Wade can find a way to win. The defense has been suffocating, holding opposing clubs to 88.7 points in this stretch compared to 94.2 on the year.

Miami will be a trendy pick, a hot team facing a cold (you can’t spell cold without o l d) one. Heat backers will dismiss 0-3 record this season against Boston, since they lost by only five, six and seven points. Wade has been like his team’s nickname, heating the C’s for almost 34 points a game and over eight assists. However, Doc Rivers has implemented a plan, let Wade get his and not let anyone else beat us, which is the reason for no other Miami player scoring 20 points vs. Boston this season.

Pick- Boston (-200) in six over Miami (+165)

Saturday Specials

As promised, came back with winning day. We’ll start this Saturday with NBA Totals system that is 87.1 percent, damn good. The Top Trend is on the ice and Kendall tries to continue his winning ways with his Best Bet on the hardwood. Good Luck

What I thought yesterday- Listed below with umpire picture.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Play Over on teams when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points off a huge upset win as an underdog of 10 points or more (Pistons), playing six or more games in 10 days. Since 1996 this system is 27-4, holy crap Batman.

Free Hockey Trend -2) The Edmonton Oilers are 1-16 against the money line after playing a game where eight or more total goals were scored this season.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Kendall is on 9-3 spurt on all bets and is riding the Jordan-aires to dump Detroit tonight.

NBA Systems ready to fire this Monday

The big game of the evening features Denver at Dallas, with both teams trying to hold off pursuers in division play, while looking to earn second slot in the West behind the Lakers. One of these clubs is in a better system along with three other matchups that have top notch super situations to consider on the last Monday of March. Take a gander of the wagering possibilities tonight in professional hoops.

Toronto (+8, 195.5) at Charlotte

The Bobcats have taken advantage of a break in the schedule, winning and covering three games in a row. With Toronto having lost three straight (the last two by four total points) and nine of last 12, one might expect Charlotte’s good fortune to continue, yet underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points in a contest involving two average teams (+/- three points per game differential) after 42 or more games, after two straight losses by six points or less are 35-12 ATS.

L. A. Lakers (-6, 201.5) at New Orleans

Los Angeles was pathetic offensively in loss to Oklahoma City, scoring 75 points on 39.2 percent shooting Friday night. The Lakers immediately came right back, converting on 57.5 percent of shot attempts at Houston in 109-101 victory the next night. When road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points play after a road game where both teams scored 100 or more points in the second half of the season, they are 37-10 ATS the last three seasons.

Denver (+5.5, 211) at Dallas NBA-TV 8:30E

In this important battle for second place in the Western Conference, neither Denver nor Dallas is playing their best basketball. The Nuggets have lost four of five and have not covered a spread in eight games, while the Mavs are 3-4 SU and 1-6-1 ATS in previous eight outings. The Mavericks appear to still have the edge since home favorites are 40-17 ATS after failing to cover five or six of their last seven against the spread, in a game involving two teams with 60% to 75% win percentage.

New York (+11, 213.5) at Utah

The Knicks haven’t played Utah since way back on Nov. 9, losing at home 95-93 as 5.5-point home underdogs. New York opened their five game west trip by being thumped by Phoenix 132-96 two days ago. When these circumstances come together, look towards the total, as revenging teams off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more, with the total at 210 or higher, are 55-24 UNDER the last 14 years.

Top NBA Monday Systems

Changes will be occurring in Charlotte as an ownership bid has been made, headed by one of the NBA’s best players ever. Tonight’s question does that lift the burden off the Bobcats to finally take down Dallas for the first time ever? The numbers point to no, at least as far as system plays are concerned, as we review the possibilities on an NBA Monday. Sides and totals from DiamondSportsbook.com.

Dallas (+2, 192) at Charlotte

The Bobcats will officially have a new ownership group led by Michael Jordan once the league approves them. Until then, the next order of business is doing something they have never done, beat Dallas. Charlotte is 0-11 (4-6-1 ATS) against the Mavericks since joining the league and faces a club that has won seven in a row and is not in a favorable position tonight. Play against teams when the line is +3 to -3, who are average defensive team (43.5-45.5%) against a weaker defensive team (45.5-47.5%), after three straight games allowing a shooting percentage of 47 percent or higher, since they are 27-6 ATS the last 14 years.

Orlando (-4, 196) at Philadelphia

The Magic have been playing their usual solid defense, holding last six opponents to 95.5 points per game, however the offense has been a little stagnant, averaging 97 points a contest in last five tries compared to season average of 101. Look to play against (7-24 ATS, L5Y) teams after five or more consecutive Unders, who are a good offensive team (98-102 PPG), against an average offensive team (92-98 PPG) after 42+ games.

New York (+11.5, 211) at Cleveland

The Cavaliers have won three in a row, shooting over 50 percent as a team, while the Knicks have lost nine of 10 and dream about tendering LeBron James a contract in the off-season. For now, play Over on home teams when the total is greater than or equal to 200, off two or more consecutive road wins, with a winning record on the season, playing a losing team. This situation is 61-22 since 1996.

San Antonio (-2.5, 195) at New Orleans

At times this season, it’s been almost hard to believe this is the San Antonio Spurs coached by Greg Popovich. Take their last four games in which they have allowed 109 or more points three times. Nevertheless, teams like the Spurs who are road favorites and ordinary defensive team (92-98 PPG), taking on poorer defensive team (98-102 PPG), after a combined score of 205 points or more two straight games are 47-18 ATS, including 4-1 against the spread this season.

Portland (+1, 195) at Memphis

Portland concludes their five game road trip in the mid-south off a mauling of division partner Minnesota 110-91. Given the total on this contest, look to play Under on road teams when the number is between 190 and 199.5 points, off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival. In the last five seasons, this system is 72-33.

Denver (+2.5, 221) at Phoenix

Both teams suffered defeats against conference rivals yesterday, ending winning streaks. Phoenix is 22-7 SU at Planet Orange (home court) winning by eight points per game and appears to be in the better spot. Home favorites having successfully covered the spread in four or more consecutive games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), are 20-3 ATS the last three years.

Utah (-6, 202) at L.A. Clippers

Los Angeles has lost three of four to the Jazz at home, including Feb. 9 matchup 109-99 as five point underdogs. This places the Clips in a negative predicament since home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points, revenging a home loss of 10 points or more, with a winning percentage of between 40-49 percent on the season, are 9-30 ATS.

Get your red hot NBA Systems here!

The numbers on tonight’s seven NBA games came out slower than usual as oddsmakers had to determine what to make of five specific contests in which injuries could have a direct impact on the outcome. That situation has been handled and here is a look at some the best side and total systems in the NBA marketplace to start another work week. Numbers from DiamondSportsbook.com.

Boston (-5, 191) at Washington

After losing three games in a row to top notch competition, the Boston Celtics get a breather of sorts traveling to Washington to take on the Wizards. Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points having lost two or more consecutive losses, with a win percentage of 60 to 75 percent and facing a team with a losing record are 28-9 ATS the last five seasons.

Milwaukee (+6.5, 188) at Miami

The Miami Heat have hit a dry spell changing the numbers on the scoreboard, scoring 92 points or less in three of their last five contests. This does not bode well for them since favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after going under the total by 36 or more points total in their last five games, with a marginal record (51 to 60 percent), facing a losing team, are 37-73 ATS in the previous five years.

L.A. Lakers (-1.5, 205) at Memphis

The Memphis Grizzlies just completed an outstanding 10-5 January to get them into the thick of Western Conference playoff talk and they catch the Los Angeles Lakers off a grueling one-point win over Boston yesterday. This contest wraps up the Lakers eight-game road trip. When a team like Memphis (51 to 60 win percent) faces a winning team and the total is 200 to 209 in February, the UNDER is 34-9 since 2005.

Sacramento (+11.5, 210.5) at Denver

The Kings aren’t exactly defensive-minded to begin with, ranking 26th in points permitted. Tonight’s situation isn’t likely to improve that record playing their third game in four days, having lost eight of nine. When the road team has failed to cover six or seven of last eight contests and is apparently tired having to play three times in roughly 96 hours and the total is 210 or higher, the OVER is a good bet at 23-8 since 2007.

Phoenix (+1, 212) at New Orleans

Chris Paul’s injury isn’t going to improve New Orleans status, as they worked back in playoff contention. Nevertheless, look to play OVER when the total is 210 or higher in a matchup involving two teams with winning percentage of 51 to 60 percent. This system calculates out to 36-8 in last 44 contests.

Dallas (+4, 199) at Utah

The Dallas Mavericks have been defenseless in last three outings, surrendering 111 points per game, with opponents converting on at least 53.3 percent of shot attempts. Utah on the other hand has won eight of nine, scoring 100 or more points six straight times. When the total is between 190 and 199.5 points and one club allowed105 points or more, against opponent having scored 100 points or more in five straight contests, review the OVER, which is 42-13 since 1996.

Charlotte (+1.5, 199) at Portland

The Portland Trailblazers are battered, bruised and shorthanded, yet they came away with two-point win at Dallas as nine-point underdogs Saturday. Charlotte is in the midst of a six-game West swing and since losing at Denver to get things started, the results have been quite positive in winning three in a row. Tonight’s matchup doesn’t set up well for Portland, as teams off an upset win as an underdog, against opponent off three or more consecutive road wins are 9-30 ATS since 1996.

Young NBA teams earning respect

Twenty-six NBA teams will be in action this Friday night, however two matchups stand out which won’t get the lion’s share of wagering dollars. The reason is these are not public teams, instead from medium sized markets (except for one) and mostly having a history of professional basketball failure or little history at all. Charlotte heads south to take on division rival Atlanta and Oklahoma City travels to the mid-south to tackle Memphis.

Atlanta looks to not get tangled in Charlotte’s web

To use a little Stu Scott speak in talking about Larry Brown, the Bobcats head coach, “The man may drive a U-Haul as his top rig with all the stops he’s made, but the dude can still coach”. Since Charlotte was again awarded a NBA franchise, they have been more beatable than a piñata. That was until the oft-traveled Brown found his dream job (for the 10th time) in the middle of North Carolina.

The Bobcats (21-19, 25-15 ATS) are on the prowl and suddenly dangerous having tied a franchise record with six consecutive wins (4-2 ATS), all at Time Warner Cable Arena. There is nothing fluky about Charlotte winning either, with average margin of victory 15.5 points per game. Brown’s Bobcats are 9-1 since 2010 arrived. “I can’t explain this,” coach Brown said. “Guys are playing at a high level.”

Charlotte is a 6.5-point underdog at DiamondSportsbook.com and is 11-3 ATS after playing a game as a home favorite this season, as they prepare for Southeast Division leader Atlanta (27-14 SU and ATS). The Hawks have been solid all year and have won six of last eight (5-3 ATS). Atlanta is well aware of how Charlotte is playing.

“They’re playing extremely well from a defensive standpoint so we’ll be tested without a doubt,” coach Mike Woodson said. “We’ll see where we stand from a defensive standpoint because they’ve got three, four guys that can really score the basketball and Jackson coming over from Golden State has really helped their ballclub.” The Bobcats are first in fewest points allowed in the NBA (92.2) and fourth in field goal defense (44.1).

Atlanta is seeking a quality 4-1 homestand, before heading out of town to play four of next five away from home. The Hawks have the league’s best home record at 17-5 and are 15-7 ATS. Atlanta lost by 20 points (103-83) at Charlotte back on Nov.6 and are 16-6 ATS revenging a road loss vs. opponent of 10 points or more over the last two seasons.

The Hawks would seem to be in a solid situation since home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points revenging a loss where team scored less than 85 points against opponent off a home win against a division rival, cover 75 percent of the time (36-12). And Charlotte is a mere 3-15 on the road, losing by 5.8 points per game; however is 11-7 ATS. Sports South carries the action at 7:30 Eastern.

How did this happen?

It’s been suggested from time to time the NBA’s playoff structure should be altered. Presently the Western Conference has far more good teams than the Eastern Conference, which has been the case for the last several years. If the league went to taking the best 16 teams by records, the West would horde 11 of those spots as the standings are today. Included would be two unlikely teams, Oklahoma City and Memphis.

Like the line from the classic movie Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid, “Who are these guys?”
Right out of Ripley’s Believe It or Not, The Thunder and Grizzlies are the two best teams in the West the last month. (Really it’s true) Oklahoma City is 11-4 and 9-6 ATS since Dec. 23. The Thunder is a very young team and amazingly coach Scott Brooks has been able to convince them that defense is the way to get better. In Oklahoma City’s last 14 games, they have held opponents to 93.6 points per game on 41.9 shooting, the latter easily the best in the NBA. The Thunder (24-18, 25-17 ATS) won by two at Minnesota in their last outing as seven point favorites and are awesome 14-2 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season.

Memphis (22-19, 24-17 ATS) has been right on Oklahoma City’s tail, winning nine of last 13 the last month and their turnaround goes even a little further back sporting 12-4 SU and ATS record since Dec. 18. The Grizzlies are also a youthful squad, with Rudy Gay, O.J. Mayo and still relatively young Zach Randolph. The Grizz come into this showdown 17-6 ATS having won three of their last four games.

Memphis is a 3.5-point favorite with total of 204.5. The Grizzlies lost to Oklahoma City at home back in December and they are 15-5 ATS revenging a home loss vs. opponent. The Thunder will seek their fifth win in six tries over Memphis since moving to Oklahoma (4-1 ATS) and have a recipe for success. If OKC scores 100 or more points and holds the opposition under that number, they are 11-0 ATS this season.

Keep a close eye on the total, with the Grizzlies who are 10-0 OVER after covering four of their last five against the spread this year and Oklahoma City who is 12-3 OVER in road games playing eight or more games in 14 days. Fox Sports in Oklahoma will carry this contest of two up and comers starting 8 Eastern.

Fingers crossed for terrific Tuesday

We got blitzed but good yesterday with 0-3 record and will to turn that right around today. We have three hoops plays to show, first Slick Rick’s Free Best Bet. The Best System is a rare first half play in the NBA and it makes a lot of sense, with low risk, points wise. In college basketball, a Top Trend of note at 16-2 ATS. Good Luck

What I learned yesterday – Sometimes even the best information can be incorrect. I had a friend call me (connected with several Cards players) and tell me Arizona can’t wait to take the field against the Niners Monday. They want so badly to beat this team they can taste it. I didn’t make a huge wager, just my typical that matches a 2* play. As it turns out, the Cardinals were too amped to play (three off-sides defensive penalties on first drive) and since they felt so good about what they were about to do, they lost their confidence in a blizzard of mistakes and turnovers. I was OK with losing, since I trusted the info; the team just didn’t come through.

I wish I could accurately describe this, but a few people that know me understand, since I’ve explained. Once I saw Kurt Warner on the sidelines before the game Monday, I knew I was in trouble. He’s got this look, kind of a wide-eyed, pissed out blank look. For whatever reason, I noticed it several years ago since he’s been in Arizona and he always plays his worst games with that look.

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Free Basketball System -1) PLAY ON home favorites like Phoenix vs. the first half line, scoring 103 or more points a game on the season against opponent after leading their last three games by 5 or more points at the half. This system is 30-6 ATS, 83.3 percent since 1996 and since the Suns are currently a two point favorite for the game, they just have to lead at halftime.

Free Basketball Trend-2) Louisiana Tech is 16-2 ATS playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Slick Rick is 5-0 in the NBA the last two days and likes Charlotte to nail the Knicks. (I’m leaning towards New York, though no money on my part)

Do yourself a favor for the Bowl Season, order this guide, you will thank me.

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Can Charlotte upset Celtics?

Since Charlotte returned to the NBA as the Bobcats in 2004, losing has been synonymous with the franchise. The most recent coach hired to lure fans back to professional basketball is the much-traveled Larry Brown, the Billy Martin of basketball for those old enough to have heard of him.

Brown is an ornery sort, who eventually wears out his welcome, nonetheless he knows how to coach and win basketball games by maximizing his players’ talents. Coincidently, if the players aren’t interested in Brown’s methodology, they usually sit and are eventually traded.

This season the Bobcats are 7-9 and are second to Atlanta in the league covering the spread with 11-5 record. Charlotte’s style of play couldn’t be more contrarian to say Phoenix, since they play a controlled defensive game, which coach Brown believes gives them the best opportunity to win.

While ranking just ahead of 0-17 New Jersey in points scored at 88.2, Charlotte leads the NBA in fewest points allowed at 87.9 per game and it’s just not playing at slower pace, since they are third in defensive field goal percentage (43.3).

To this point of the season, the Bobcats are establishing a quality home court advantage with 6-2 SU and ATS record. Charlotte ranks sixth among NBA teams on their home court, with a 9.1 score differential. Only the elite clubs like Phoenix, Boston, Denver, San Antonio and the L.A. Lakers have a wider margin playing at home.

Charlotte has won and covered four in a row and oddsmakers have taken notice. The Bobcats face Boston this evening and the Celtics have the second best record in the Eastern Conference at 13-4 (7-10 ATS).

Bookmaker.com has Boston as 3.5-point road favorites and the Celtics are 6-1 as road warriors, but have covered just three times. They also have won four consecutive games (2-2 ATS) and are 9-3-1 ATS against teams with winning home records.

However, don’t discount Charlotte’s obvious edges. The C’s have a bigger game at San Antonio in two days and might not bring game face to North Carolina. This is a test for the Bobcats to get a read they are moving in the right direction and they are 27-14 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last two seasons. If you trust trends, especially powerful ones, the Bobcats 15-1 ATS record after allowing 85 points or less cannot be ignored.

Is Charlotte with wagering consideration tonight at 7:00 Eastern? Backed with the knowledge they are 9-1 ATS after a blowout win by 15 points or more over the last two seasons, winning by 9.7 points a game, than the answer is yes.

NBA Monday System Watch

It’s the start of another week in the NBA with only three games on the menu. Each contest has a valuable system that that can help shape a potential wager or change one’s minded to open up other possibilities. In any event, here are the Top NBA systems for a Monday night of action.

Charlotte at Orlando (-11.5, 178)

The Orlando Magic (7-3, 6-4 ATS) will have the services of Rashard Lewis once again, whose been sitting out a 10-game suspension after testing positive for an elevated testosterone level. The Magic continued New Jersey’s woes this past Friday with 88-82 victory, while Charlotte (3-6, 5-4 ATS) offensive funk continued with 80-74 loss against Portland Saturday.

This sets up potential OVER play, since teams like Orlando after a game where both teams scored 90 points or less, and facing opponent who tallied 35 points or less in the first half of last game are 44-16, 73.3 percent the last five years.

Portland at Atlanta (-4, 189)

The Trailblazers (8-3 SU&ATS) and the Hawks (8-2, 9-1 ATS) are two of the best teams in the early going of the NBA season and having backers build significant bankrolls in the early going with a combined 17-4 spread record.

Something will have to give tonight as Atlanta has won and covered four in a row and Portland is on even better streak at six straight in the two categories. Sportsbook.com has the Hawks as home favorites and that might be correct, as road teams having four or more consecutive wins, playing their third road game in four days are 16-38 ATS, 27 percent in next outing since 2005.

Dallas at Milwaukee (-1.5, 190.5)

Michael Redd better get healthy quick or he might turn into Wally Pipp. (Google it) Rookie Brandon Jennings set a Milwaukee franchise record with 55 points Saturday night in 129-125 win over Golden State (previous rookie record mark of 51 set by Kareem Abdul-Jabbar - then known as Lew Alcindor), in just his eighth game. Redd has been out since the second game of the season for the Bucks (5-2 SU&ATS) with a knee injury and Milwaukee has won four consecutively.

Dallas (7-3 SU&ATS) is 2-1 on the last stop of a four-game road trip, which included 95-90 win yesterday at Detroit as 4.5-point favorites. This will be the Mavericks fifth contest in a week, yet the situation favors them. In November, teams playing that many games in seven days, with a line are +3 to -3, are 17-4 ATS the last three years.

It's Bracket Monday, the unofficial slow day at work

A 2-0 day will work, as our Free Play and Top Trend were both quality selections. The Memphis Grizzles make our trend list in a reverse perfect way. With just seven games in sports tonight and everybody still filling out brackets, our hockey expert, who is up +27 units on the season, gives out his Best Bet tonight. We have another non-qualifying system that is 78.9 percent in the NBA. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY AGAINST home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points in a game involving two poor defensive teams (45.5-47.5 percent allowed ), after three straight games allowing a shooting percentage of 47 percent or higher. The Charlotte Bobcats fit this negative profile and teams like them are 8-30 against the spread.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Memphis Grizzlies are 0-10 ATS in home games versus teams outscoring their opponents by three or more points per game in the second half of the season since last year.

Free Hockey Selection -3) Our NHL guy likes Washington to keep on winning tonight.

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Tuesday's Best Bets and Quick Look at MNF Total

Well this is a first, two straight 2-0-1 days at 3Daily Winners. I saw the trend of bettors taking the total upward on the Monday night affair and bet the Under 40 points. In all honesty it was probably fitting the game Pushed, because those on either side had two very lucky or unlucky breaks forcing the outcome. One of the wackier totals games of the year.

A rather thin sports card has us turning attention to the NHL for today’s Best System that is an 82.7 percent winner. Very curious about the outcome, as a number of notable hockey cappers are on the other side. The Perfect Trends have been perfect lately and we have another in the NBA. Good Luck.

Free Hockey System-1) PLAY AGAINST road teams like New Jersey when the money line is -100 to -150, revenging a loss where opponent scored five or more goals, off a home loss by two goals or more. This super system has delivered winners 24 of the last 29 times in the last 10 seasons, including 2-0 this year.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Charlotte Bobcats are 10-0 ATS in home games after a game with five or less offensive rebounds.

Free Basketball Selection -3)Kendall is off two Pushes in the NFL and says take Houston in the NBA tonight.

Get Your Friday Betting Groove On

An excellent bounce back Thursday with 3-1 record. We do feel bad for the Left Coast Connection member who had the Miami Hurricanes, but that’s gambling. With college basketball starting in earnest tonight, thought we’d throw out the best System available tonight, which has been 90 percent the last two years. We have a peculiar Top Trend to follow in the NBA and it’s never lost. Free Play ready. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) - Play On favorites of 10 or more points like Penn State, who were marginal losing team from last season who won 40-49 percent of their games, with four starters returning from last season. This system is 30-8 ATS, 78.9 percent and 9-1 the last two years.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Charlotte Bobcats are 0-13 ATS versus crummy 3-point shooting teams making 30 percent or less of their attempts.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Five members of the LLC are backing the Houston Rockets tonight.

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Betting Thoughts and Great Hockey System

Really thought we had a winner with Charlotte Bobcats last night with our system play, rats, (OK a little too old school but I have a reputation to keep up) which gave us a 1-2 day. We have another fantastic Hockey System running tonight that is 23-2 since 1997. Today’s Top Trend is not relevant to today, but keep in your back pocket for betting college football on Saturday. Jason gave out nice upset winner in the NBA and is invited back to do so again today. Good Luck.

I have the updated figures at the monitors we belong to. As stated Monday, we are #1 at Free Sports Monitor in the NFL. We are #3 in the NFL at The Sports Eye and #6 in college football. We would be higher ranked in both sports at Cappers Watchdog, but they use the 1-5 unit measure and these plays are placed the same way we would bet on them. Many others us max five all the time, we have chosen to be consistent with our values. However, we are #6 at Cappers Watchdog in the NHL with every play two units.

Very curious about tonight’s Central Michigan and Northern Illinois game and here’s why. The average score of an NIU game is 42.9 points and 38.7 PPG at home. In conference games the average is 42.5 PPG. CMU has averaged 56.2 PPG and 61.4 on the road. In MAC action they have averaged 52.4 PPG. Because of how good NIU plays defense, I believe the conference numbers are more useful for both teams. If my thinking is correct, is the oddsmaker telling us the 49.5 total favors the underdog Chippewas being a potentially higher scoring game? Think my logic is correct? Let me know your thoughts.

Free Hockey System-1) PLAY ON home Favorites of -200 or less like the Vancouver Canucks against the money line off a home win where they shut out their opponent against opponent off a close home win by one goal. This NHL system rocks with 23-2 mark, 92 percent the last 11 seasons.

Free Football Trend -2) The Central Michigan and Northern Illinois contest both have really good trends supporting both sides. The NBA angles are fairly pedestrian, thus will turn to college football this Saturday where the #1 Alabama Crimson Tide are 11-1 UNDER in home games after five or more consecutive straight up wins.

Free Selection -3) Jason of the Left Coast Connection is playing New Orleans Hornets as his Best Bet in the NBA.

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Tuesday November 11, Wagering Action

The Miami Heat was cooled off last night, winning but failing to cover and Orlando was defeated outright at home. We have a thought-provoking NBA System today that favors a home underdog on a couple of levels. The Utah Jazz have started the season in fine fashion, will it continue in Philadelphia, check out today’s Top Trend. Good Luck.

A salute to all Veterans on what has become a lost holiday.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON home teams vs. the money line like Charlotte who are a weak offensive team (88-92 PPG) against a fair defensive team like Denver (98-102 PPG), after a combined score of 175 points or less. This money line system is 28-7, 80 percent. What is really intriguing about this system is the home underdog and the current payout is +155 on the Bobcats if they win. Otherwise appears to be a pretty fair wager catching the points.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Utah Jazz are 3-13 ATS in road games after playing five consecutive games as favorite over the last three seasons.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Jason of the LLC prefers the Atlanta Hawks to upset Chicago on the road.