CBB Tournament Wagering Blog

Thursday March 11 8:24 AM

Disappointments – Colorado-Missouri-Louisville

Colorado was a very popular play yesterday morning among handicappers, having won three in a row, the last against the Red Raiders in convincing fashion and Texas Tech riding a six-game losing streak. I got emails from people asking if this was good play and my response was I don’t like betting conference tournament games after the teams had just met. This usually means both are mediocre, given they would play right away again and anything is possible. The Buffaloes were beaten soundly by Texas Tech, who worked the ball inside which led to 30 free throw attempts (23 made) and outrebounding the Buffs by 10.

A 12th seed defeated a fifth-seed for the second time in the history of the Big 12 tournament as Nebraska knocked off defending tournament champion Missouri. The Tigers were clearly not ready to play after being thumped by Kansas Saturday by 21 and carried the emotional baggage like luggage to Kansas City. The Cornhuskers, a 10.5-point underdog, followed many of the same principles the Jayhawks provided on tape. The Missouri press is beatable on the backside if you go to the rim once you cross midcourt and shot 58.8 percent in winning by 15.

It was typical of Louisville all year and they got what they deserved in upset by Cincinnati. The Bearcats play physical and coach Rick Pitino knew what it would take to down Cincinnati. "The point of emphasis tonight was to rebound the basketball," Pitino said. "We rebound, we win. We knew that. We didn't, we lost. We go home early. Wasted a lot of boosters' money." The Cardinals were dominated on the glass 46-29 and those holding Cards -6 tickets also felt cheated.

Surprises – Notre Dame – Montana

Notre Dame coach Mike Brey deserves all the credit in the world for his team’s remarkable turnaround. Luke Harangody went down in loss to Seton Hall on Feb. 11 and reports later surfaced his college career might be finished. Coach Brey convinced his squad this was now their team and Tory Jackson and Tim Abromaitis in particular took over as leaders and the rest of the players followed their lead in winning last four games, including taking down a pair of ranked clubs.

Harangody’s knee heeled faster than what many believed and he’s returned, coming off the bench. Coach Brey stayed true to the players that realistically have given Notre Dame the chance to be in NCAA Tournament and kept them as starters. The Irish started slowly in trailing 11-2 to Seton Hall and Brey subbed in Harangody and his energy and moves around the basket helped Notre Dame build 28-21 halftime lead. Brey went back to usual starters and they built a 14-point lead and Brey was wise (in my opinion) to let the starting five work thru brief Pirates run that cut the lead to nine and only brought in the former Big East player of the year after Notre Dame has reestablished control.

If you had Weber State -3.5 on their home floor, leading 40-20 at the half, you could be excused from turning away from ESPN2 and the Big Sky championship to check out another game. One problem occurred with that logic, Anthony Johnson of Montana. Johnson exploded for career high 42 points, an amazing 34 in the second half, proving why they call it March Madness, as the Grizzlies stormed all the way back to steal 66-65 win and NCAA bid. What a performance!

Wednesday March 10 7:00AM

You had to be impressed with how Butler just overwhelmed Wright State 70-45 as seven-point home favorites. That win was the Bulldogs 20th in a row, the longest streak in the country, having last lost at UAB on Dec. 22, 67-57. Butler should be a fifth seed (a sixth at worst) and is a definite threat to win a game or two in the tournament, as long as they stay away from super athletic teams.

It’s not my job when to tell coach Jim Calhoun when to retire, but given the non-performance his team put up against St. John’s in being routed 73-51 as 4.5-point favorites, something has to change. Calhoun continues to be plagued by health issues and Connecticut finished the season 6-12 and 7-11 ATS, which made the talk of them even being considered for NCAA Tournament foolish. Maybe progression will just solve the Huskies problems, as seniors Stanley Robinson, Jerome Dyson and Gavin Edwards provided nothing in terms of leadership for their team and their careers are almost completed.

North Texas won the Sun Belt title and automatic bid, by squeaking by Troy 66-63. The Mean Green has four 20-win seasons and can really motor up and down the floor. They could present a challenge to wrong NCAA tourney opponent, as they are 12-6 (10-5-1 ATS) away from Denton and 7-1-1 ATS as a road underdog. The biggest concern is 43.1 field goal percentage defense and sometimes how easily opponents get inside on them for easy buckets.

Super Wednesday of College Hoops

While all the talk in college basketball is about seeds, brackets, who’s in and who’s out, the college basketball bettor is focused on one thing, what winners can I find today? Sports bettors live in two worlds, the present, trying to win, or the past, reflecting on the prior wins and losses. The former is a healthy trait, particularly when a number of consequential contests are on tap, which keep the Joe Lunardi’s of the world employed. (Note –In the world of full disclosure, Lunardi does have a real job, Assistant Vice President of Marketing Communications at Saint Joseph's University and does color commentary for men's basketball team)

Luke Who?

Time to fess up, even if you are a Notre Dame fanatic, drinking the blue and gold kool-aid, the only basketball team that was going to play in the NCAA Tournament was the women’s once Luke Harangody went down. Three punch-in-the-gut losses left Notre Dame at 17-10, with ranked teams Pittsburgh and Georgetown up next, the dreaded acronym – NIT – was being used again. Yet, after suffering those defeats, senior guard Tory Jackson and sharp shooter Tim Abromaitis have taken the team on their backs and gotten other players to follow suit and all of the sudden the Irish are fighting NCAA Tournament bid.

Notre Dame (19-10, 12-10-1 ATS) isn’t necessarily a better team without Harangody, who will be honored on senior night, though is not expected to play with bone bruise on his knee. What changed is Jackson and Abromaitis decided to become more assertive and others like Tyrone Nash, Carlton Scott and seldom used Harangody look-alike Jack Cooley have followed their lead. The Fighting Irish are a confident club, fighting to be invited to the field of 65. Notre Dame has covered four of last five and is 16-3 (7-6 ATS) at home.

Standing in their way is an even more desperate team in Connecticut (17-12, 11-15-1 ATS). The Huskies have to win their last two games in the Big East and probably a couple in the postseason tournament to have chance. From a purely talent perspective, the Huskies are probably the better team, but inconsistency has plagued UConn who is 17-33 ATS on the road after consecutive home games.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Notre Dame as two-point choice and they are 7-17 ATS after covering the spread over the last two seasons. Connecticut is 5-2-1 ATS as an underdog and will look to derail the Irish’s hopes while enhancing their own dreams. The Huskies have won six of previous seven meetings with five covers for this 7:00 Eastern ESPN contest.

Dorothy, we are in Kansas

Coach Frank Martin might rub more than a few folks the wrong way with his barking dog delivery on the sidelines, Mike Singletary steely eyes and bluntness in describing what he sees. Let those people whine while Kansas State turns into Big 12 power and at least this year, Wildcats backers clean up. K-State is 22-4 and still harbors an outside chance to tie for conference crown and is 17-6 against the spread. The last time Kansas State was ranked fifth in the country was 42 years ago, when their coach was Tex Winter (accredited for the triangle offense) and Lakers coach Phil Jackson was 13 years old. Kansas State is 8-1 ATS vs. top caliber teams outscoring their opponents by 12 or more points a game this season.

Martin has shown to be an “everything” person, he wants to win the Big 12, win the national championship and whatever else he can accomplish. To have a chance, his club must beat Kansas (27-2, 10-15-1 ATS) in Lawrence.

The Jayhawks were removed from No. 1 perch losing at Oklahoma State four days ago and will seek to reestablish themselves quickly against in-state rival. This game will be rock, chalk, jayhawk full of emotion for guard Sherron Collins. The senior leader will be making his final appearance at Allen Fieldhouse and will want to maintain Kansas’ 58-game home winning streak, the longest in the country. Kansas is 12-3 ATS versus teams outscoring opponents by eight or more points a contest after 15 or more games over the last two seasons.

The Jayhawks are a nine-point favorite, with total of 149.5 and are 11-1 ATS after allowing 45 points or more in the first half last game and are 7-1 UNDER playing only their second tilt in eight days. Kansas State is 10-2 ATS having won eight or more of their last 10 contests and 7-0 OVER in a road game where the total is 145 to 149.5 over the last three seasons.

ACC title on the line

The Atlantic Coast Conference has not received its usual acclaim this season, with North Carolina plummeting to unforeseen depths and many others being merely pedestrian. Duke and Maryland have managed to stay above the mediocrity and will battle in an important ACC clash.

Maryland (21-7, 14-9 ATS) is a game behind Duke in the standings and jacked-up for senior night. The Terrapins fans will salute seniors Landon Milbourne, Greivis Vasquez and Eric Hayes.

“In the beginning of year, when I looked at the schedule and saw Duke on Senior Night, I got pretty excited,” Milbourne said Tuesday. “Now, it’s even bigger because we’re fighting for the regular-season title. We’ve been trying to get this chance since I’ve been here, and it’s finally here.” The Terps have won five consecutive games, 11 of 13 and are 14-4 ATS at home off three straight wins against ACC rivals.

It’s difficult to fathom, but only in the last week or two has Duke (25-4, 17-10-1 ATS) been really considered in the hierarchy of college basketball this season. Perceptions are hard to break and the Blue Devils have been an overrated team the last few years. This team is different, with production in the paint, a +5 rebound margin and positive contributions coming off the bench. Duke isn’t going to win if two if their big three have off-nights (Jon Scheyer, Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler), however they have found the answer when one of the trio hasn’t been in top form regularly. Duke is 9-0 ATS versus high-powered offensive teams dropping 77 or more points a game this season.

The Dukies are a short one-point favorite at the sold-out Comcast Center, with total of 146.5. Duke is 17-7 ATS after playing a game as a road favorite, which they were at Virginia (67-49) and is 12-3 UNDER after allowing 55 points or less. Coach Gary Williams might need two suits the way he perspires, yet he has to like his club’s chances since they are 17-6 ATS in home games after covering three of their last four against the spread.

This is the late game on ESPN and the Blue Devils have taken last five (4-0-1 ATS) during the regular season and are 8-4 and 7-5 ATS at College Park the last dozen years.

Something new for Sunday

Looking at 5 Sunday college games from a basketball betting perspective:

1. Ordinarily a team off such an important win as Temple's 49-41 smothering of Dayton would be a candidate for a letdown. But the Big 5 is still important in Philadelphia and if Temple can beat LaSalle they'll be the first Temple team to go 5-0 in the intra-city series since the Mark Macon-led 1987-88 squad. Since their blowout loss at Richmond , the Owls have held their four opponents combined to less than 34% from the field, with none of those teams shooting any higher than 40%.

2. UConn hosts Louisville in a game with the vibe of a postseason affair. Pointspread watchers may see the Cardinals "surge" as an illusion, as the only game that Pitino's charges have covered in their last 6 affairs was the outright upset win at Syracuse. The Cardinal are on a 3-10 pointspread run overall. Meanwhile, UConn is suddenly popular among sports bettors, as they've won and covered three in a row, including outright upsets over West Virginia and Villanova. Previously the Huskies had a potential massive outright upset thwarted by the officials in Syracuse . A win by either club here may wrap up a tourney berth.

3. If you don't have the Big 10 Network, well, no big deal. All you're missing is Indiana at Iowa at 6PM EST. Indiana has lost 9 straight and failed to cover 6 straight. Iowa has lost 8 of 9. Iowa wasted Indiana 58-43 earlier this season in Bloomington as 6-point road dogs, holding the homestanding Hoosiers without a 3-point field goal in 9 tries. Ironically, at a slow time in the sports day this game will be prominently featured on the big screens in Las Vegas sports books.

4. The earlier Big 10 game is no prize either. Northwestern is in unfriendly pointspread territory, as this is only the second time that Vegas and online sportsbooks haven't had Northwestern taking 7.5 points or more in a conference road game. The other outlier was when Northwestern lost by 13 at Iowa as a small road favorite. Previously considered to be a potential NCAA tourney team, Northwestern has managed to lose to both Iowa (2-12 in the rest of their conference games) and Penn State (1-13 in their other conference games).

5. Fortunately, despite the ugly affairs provided by a few "power conferences" there is a real beauty between a pair of underrated teams in the strong Atlantic 10 on ESPN2 this afternoon. Overlooked Xavier and underrated Richmond are two teams with potential to do some damage in the NCAA tournament. It is clearly Sunday's most attractive matchup, and you'll be a little bit better prepared for March Madness if you try to catch it.

Good luck on Sunday, and be careful.

Written by Kevin O'Neill of Real World Sports.com

Monday, Monday

Another quality 2-1 day takes us to 19-7 against the spread the last 26 tries. For the Top Trend, we have a double angle in a game I personally don’t like. Slick Rick hopefully has another Free Play Winner and the Best System doesn’t quite qualify, yet is 5-0 this season. Good Luck

What I thought today – What a great weekend of sports! The best entertainment all weekend was on MSNBC of all places Sunday night, with the United States upset of Canada in hockey. It showed why when hockey is played at high level; it’s an outstanding sport, pulling in even novice fans.

I haven’t had time to look at any web information sites north of the border, but I really don’t have to, since today is truly a sad day in Canada, not only being beaten, but being outworked at key moments. It would normally be considered a fluke to be outshot 45-23 and win, nonetheless, Canada made numerous miscues and goalie Martin Brodeur looked like an imposter with his name on the back of his red uniform, allowing four goals in 22 shots, while Ryan Miller of the U.S. was like an octopus, stopping all but three attempts.

Can Canada come back and win the gold, undoubtedly, but for those that had the red, white and blue on the money or puck line, congrats.

What the Bracket Buster proved

The Colonial Athletic Conference is normally a dependable league; with above average teams for a so-called mid-major, but after this past weekend, the conference has as many long faces per capita as Canada. The CAA was 3-9 SU and 4-8 ATS among its membership. The really bad news was the seven teams with a .500 or better in league play were 2-5 and unfathomable 1-6 ATS. In each case, when the game was on the line, none of these teams stepped up and the only club that looked like they could win a NCAA Tournament game was Virginia Commonwealth, who has a big man in Larry Sanders and a pressing defense that could make runs in games.

Playing at Butler is hardly a fun trip for any team (ask Ohio State), nevertheless when you are presented with opportunity, you have to make the most of it. Siena did not and was completely outclassed in the second half, being outscored 42-22 in 17-point loss. The Saints are a nice team at 22-6 and 14-10-2 ATS, however they lack the skill and athleticism to be considered a team that could pull a first round upset should they make the tournament.

Utah State and Northern Iowa both looked capable, however they would need to be matched against teams without superior athletes who tend to play out of control to win a NCAA game or two.

Big Ten beat goes on

The Big Ten Conference has returned to prominence this season, with four teams that are an absolute lock to make the field and two others that still have to do a bit more work. One aspect clear in this league, the contenders put so much effort into beating one another; they have little energy to keep it going.

It started with Illinois, after upsetting Michigan State and Wisconsin, the tank was empty against Ohio State and was throttled at home 72-53. The Buckeyes were nearly perfect at Champaign and returned home to face Purdue. Except for about 10 total minutes, the Buckeyes were outplayed by Purdue and lost as favorites at home 60-57.

The Boilermakers played brilliantly at Columbus, but made Illinois look like Elite 8 team for 30 minutes on their home floor. Senior Keaton Grant kept Purdue in the game and in the end, Robbie Hummel and E’Twaun Moore started to score, as the Boilers won but failed to cover. Michigan State was starting to look like they had their house in order after winning and covering on the road against Penn State and Indiana and they return to East Lansing ready to…..shoot 41.3 percent, be outrebounded by six and fall 74-67 to Ohio State as four point home favorites. Go figure.

Random mumbling

Vanderbilt was a popular play against Kentucky, but 2-20 from beyond the arc closed the door on the Commodores bid to take down No. 2. It was really the first time the Wildcats played like youngsters for prolonged periods, but John Wall and Patrick Patterson were money when it counted.

I wouldn’t discount Vandy as being a good tournament team however; they have weapons to score despite bad shooting night and proved they can D-it up also.

UTEP is 20-5 (11-10 ATS) and has 10-game winning streak. Their worst loss of the season was at Houston, at least by team’s ability and they have a number of ways to score along with quickness and size.

According to my sources, there is no truth to the blog rumor that the top two teams from the Pac-10 will be involved in the Tuesday plan-in game before for the NCAA tourney.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Play On all teams like UConn when the line is +3 to -3, who are solid defensive team holding opponent to 40 percent or less shooting, against an average defensive team (42.5-45%) after 15+ games, and they are average ball handling team (14.5-17.5 turnovers) against a poor pressure defensive team forcing 14.5 or less turnovers. This system has been around since 1997 and is 55-19 ATS, 74.3 percent including 5-0 this year.

Free Basketball Trend - 2) If you like the Pacers, here are two more reasons to like them. Indiana is 10-0 ATS off a double digit win as a road underdog of six more and Dallas is 3-12 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points this season.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Slick Rick is 33-19 the last eight days and is on Utah tonight.

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This Big Monday, check out the ranked clubs

West Virginia and Kansas are both highly ranked teams as they have been all year and both will be in action Monday night looking to hang on to their lofty status. Because their seems to be no great teams in college basketball, there are a number of very good clubs that can still improve and each will be looking to do just that with the NCAA bids coming out in less than three weeks. Sports bettors can review what kind of progress each is making.

West Virginia at Connecticut 7:00E ESPN

Coaches in all sports will often talk about moving on to the next game, not dwelling too long on a win or loss. However, anyone who has ever spoken to a coach of any kind will know these fellows have long memories and think about the “what if” possibilities all the time. Coach Bob Huggins team is only one game behind second place Villanova in the loss column starting tonight and could do 30 minutes reciting all the ways the Mountaineers (21-5, 11-14 ATS) could have avoided two point loss to Notre Dame, one point loss to Syracuse and double overtime defeat to rival Pittsburgh, which really would have placed them in the thick of Big East race. But Huggins like most coaches will revert to task at hand at Connecticut and West Virginia is 6-3 and 4-5 ATS on the road.

It still looks like an outside shot, yet Connecticut (10-14-1 ATS) has renewed hope for NCAA berth with a victory. The Huskies have two imposing road wins over Rutgers and Villanova and four more victories takes them to 20-11 and a semi-final appearance in the Big East tournament would place them in excellent position. UConn is 6-1 ATS off a SU win and guard Kemba Walker has ignited this club and former starter Alex Oriakhi has been a spark off the bench. The return of Jim Calhoun has helped also, for Huskies team that is 13-3 at home (5-9 ATS).

DiamondSportsbook.com has West Virginia as three-point favorite with total of 134.5. The Mountaineers have won and covered four of previous six games, nonetheless is 3-6 ATS on the year after covering the spread and is 8-3-1 OVER away from Morgantown. Connecticut has covered the spread the last four times they have taken on clubs that win better than 60 percent of road games and are 4-0 OVER to start a new work week.

The Huskies have been howling with a 6-2 ATS mark vs. the ‘Teers.

Oklahoma at Kansas 9:00E ESPN

Kansas (26-1, 10-13-1 ATS) is trying to sweep the Big 12 this year with its talented club and has three remaining games that will put them to the test, however that doesn’t begin until Feb.27, as they figure to have little resistance against Oklahoma (13-13, 9-14 ATS). The Jayhawks may not always play their best, but master recruiter and motivator Bill Self always finds a reason for the team or individual players to test themselves to perform at a higher level. The high flying Jayhawks are 19-5 ATS when they score 81 or more points in a game over the last two years.

To say it has been an eventful campaign in Norman, is like saying the Mid-Atlantic States have seen a little snow the last few weeks. Losing streaks, selfish play, underachieving players, suspensions, you name it, coach Jeff Caple has been going up and the emotional elevator all season. If there has been a bright spot on dismal year, it has been the late maturation and emergence of freshman guard Tommy Mason-Griffin. Opposing teams have picked up on Mason-Griffin is a deadly three-point shooter and been forced to account for him, opening up areas in the lane for the Sooners to have easier shoots. Oklahoma will need him and others since they are 13-25 ATS as an underdog the last few years.

Kansas has covered the spread just once on last seven tries, though could have on at least two other occasions, opening up big leads against large numbers and coasting to victory. The Jayhawks are 22-point favorites with total of 147.5 and are 16-5 ATS in last 21 Monday assignments. It will be intriguing to see what kind of fight Oklahoma actually has as the basketball program, since they have mirrored their football brethren from this past season and are 15-36-3 ATS on the road.

Kansas has swept six straight over the Sooners at Allen Fieldhouse with .500 spread record and own the nation’s longest home winning streak at 57 games and the UNDER is 6-2 in Lawrence for Boomer Sooner’s last eight visits.

Nova takes over Big East with win

Prior to the season, Villanova was expected to be strong contender for the Big East regular season title after their Final Four appearance from a year ago and many of their backcourt players returning. The Wildcats have been exceptional all season at 22-2 (16-7 ATS) and with Syracuse being upset yesterday, can take over sole possession of first place with a victory.

The key player for Villanova is Scottie Reynolds, who directs an offense that scores 85.4 points per game. Reynolds finds ways to involve all his teammates and rarely dominates the ball despite scoring 19 points a game, which is fourth in the Big East.

I don’t want it to always be, Scottie will get us going,” Villanova coach Jay Wright said. “But I’m glad we have that. That’s something I always have in the back of my mind.” The Wildcats handled Providence Saturday 92-81 in non-cover and is 16-6 ATS in home games off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival.

Connecticut (14-11, 8-14-1 ATS) was also thought to be among those teams capable of contending for Big East title, but that plan never got off the table. The Huskies are 4-8 in league play and have lost five of last six, covering the spread just one time. Even the return of coach Jim Calhoun (out seven games with undisclosed illness) did nothing to lift the spirits of UConn players who shot a season low 34.6 percent in home loss to Cincinnati 60-48.

“I thought it was one of the worst performances I’ve had here at UConn in 24 years,” said Calhoun. “I’m really incredibly disappointed by the performance, and I’m embarrassed by it, quite frankly.” The Huskies are 5-5 and 2-7 ATS off a loss this season.

That doesn’t mean to sell Connecticut short however. Calhoun is a Hall of Fame coach. In much the same manner, Louisville was sickly at St. John’s, losing by 19 points this past Thursday and came immediately back to knock off No. 2 Syracuse on Sunday. It would not be a shock if the Huskies are ferocious with plenty of spunk tonight in Philadelphia.

DiamondSportsbook.com has UConn catching 9.5-points with total of 155.5. The Huskies are 9-4 ATS as road underdogs and 6-2 ATS off a loss by 10 or more points. Villanova on the other hand is 19-8 ATS playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last two seasons and has covered last seven of 10 as a favorite.

This is the opening game on Big Monday starting at 7:00 Eastern and the home teams has covered eight of last 10 meetings.

Time for Lift off on Monday

Brought the truck back around to the winning side with 2-1 day and I warned Paul Buck Pitt might be in trouble. Today we have a super NHL trend that will bring a smile to hockey bettors face. The Best System is in the MAC at 28-6 and I have several weekend observations. Good Luck

What I thought today- It was quite a weekend in basketball for the sports bettor to take in the action and learn a great deal about the teams they were wagering on. You could make a case Georgetown has as good a three main players in guards Chris Wright, Austin Freeman and center Greg Monroe, as there is in college basketball. No question a number of others teams are more complete than the Hoyas, however when all three of these players are on, as Duke found out, G-Town is very good. The Blue Devils looked very tired and did an unusually poor job in transition defense. When Duke is getting beat, they are not receiving any contributions in the paint.

Louisville outscored West Virginia 71-46 in the middle 32+ minutes of their game against West Virginia and covered. However, they trailed 13-0 after the first three minutes of the contest and the Mountaineers used an 18-4 closing salvo to win 77-74. Credit coach Bob Huggins for using 1-3-1 zone defense in last four minutes plus to prevent the Cardinals from scoring. Louisville also got “homered” on brutal call with seconds remaining, which should have given them the ball back under their own basket.

In watching Baylor and Texas, it really appeared the Bears were the better team in upsetting the Longhorns in Austin. The Texas guards just don’t offer enough offensively unless you count turnovers and excessive dribbling as positives. One positive for coach Rick Barnes, Texas played with defensive intensity in the second half of this contest, something not witnessed in a couple of weeks. For the oddity of the weekend, Baylor’s Ekpe Udoh was 0-10 shooting in regulation play with no points and he scored the Bears first seven points in OT.

Kentucky went from seven point favorites all the way to 9.5 early Saturday afternoon before the marketplace settled on 8.5. It didn’t matter as the Wildcats were awesome on defense against Vanderbilt and DeMarcus Cousins showed he is going to be a tremendous NBA talent, probably after this his freshman season.

The Kansas and Kansas State’s contest lived up to all the billing with overtime thriller. The Jayhawks can turn to several different players in the context of a game and find a way to win. K-State is so aggressive, especially on the offensive glass. Coach Frank Martin might have played the final minute differently given more time to think about, taking what seemed to be an unnecessary calculated risk. Glad I was off that game, as the last second heave by the Wildcats was either a heart-breaking spread loss or cause for lucky celebration with Kansas State catching four points.

Illinois is not mentally strong and are a bad favorite play. Watched Pacific for about 25 minutes, they look like a good bet the rest of the way in the Big West as single digit favorites, which won’t be often. Couldn’t help but be impressed with Cornell. The Big Red wasn’t on TV, however the humiliated Harvard 86-50 on their own home floor. Cornell is 18-3 and 13-3 ATS and their only losses have come to Seton Hall, Syracuse and they realistically could have been then and now No. 1 Kansas in Lawrence, losing by five.

Go figure, North Carolina is 13-8, as is Connecticut, after both were upset this weekend. There is still time to improve record, but right now neither looks like they belong in NCAA Tournament and they are a combined 14-23-1 ATS.

It was lost on me why PGA Tour players were outraged Phil Mickelson used an old Ping wedge that technically could be deemed illegal, but was “grandfathered” in under the rules of golf and thus is 100 percent legal. Having worked in the golf business for a long time, I’m well aware that many professional golfers are not that much different than those that setup NASCAR rigs. In other words, you make the rules and I’ll take them as possibly as close as I can without “breaking the law”. Mickelson was playing by the rules and if he could get a slight edge on his competitors don’t blame him, blame the golfers that didn’t keep an old wedge around that was over 20 years old. Trust me, though these golfers are as honorable as any athletes in sports, if their golf balls went one foot past the number of feet per second rule on compression, very few would not use golf balls deemed “illegal”.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Play On home favorites of 10 or more points like Bowling Green after scoring 55 points or less, against opponent after scoring 60 points or less three straight games. The Falcons are in 28-6 ATS winning situation at 82.4 percent.

Free Hockey Trend - 2) The most humorous NHL game tonight is Edmonton and Carolina, as each team has combined angles of 0-22 going against each other. Instead we’ll say to watch Anaheim, who is 9-1 against the money line in road games after two consecutive non-conference games over the last three seasons.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Ron is the newest member of the Left Coast Connection and he sees a tired and flat Lakers club in Memphis tonight and is backing the Grizz.

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Louisville and Texas making bettors nervous

Rick Pitino knew the 2009-10 Cardinals were not at the same level as last year’s squad and expected growing pains. Rick Barnes of Texas knew he had a deep and talented club, which rose all the way to No.1 this season. As both Louisville and Texas have come up on the wrong side of the ledger in recent games, college basketball bettors are left to ponder what each of these teams might do on Big Monday.

Hey, a little helper over here

The Cardinals (13-8, 6-10 ATS) have lost four of last five in Big East play and Louisville backers are seeing red with their team 1-5 ATS in last six. The Cardinals 77-74 loss at West Virginia might have been microcosm of the entire season. The ‘Ville trailed the Mountaineers 13-0 to start the game and were outscored 18-4 to end it. The other 32+ minutes they dominated the contest 71-46. When the game was in the balance; the Cards could not make a bucket and didn’t stop the opposition, a familiar theme this season. Louisville is 3-11 ATS in home games when playing only their second game in eight days over the last three seasons.

About the only positive news for the home team is tonight’s foe is in the same predicament. Connecticut (13-8, 7-11-1 ATS) have fallen in five of their last seven outings, including the last two to Providence and Marquette. The Huskies have too often played like dogs to start games and they trailed by double digits against the Golden Eagles before rallying, only to lose 70-68 at home as five point favorites. UConn wiped the glass clean against smallish Marquette, outrebounding them by 19, yet forced but three turnovers. “I’m ready to play another game,” forwards Gavin Edwards said. “I want to get this taste out of my mouth as quick as possible.” Connecticut is 12-4 ATS in road games after playing consecutive contests as a favorite.

Louisville is a six-point favorite at DiamondSportsbook.com, with total at 145.5 and is 12-3 ATS in February games over the last two seasons, normally the time a Pitino coached club starts to jell. UConn will be playing their fifth game without coach Jim Calhoun (2-2 SU & ATS) and they are 6-0 OVER on the road after outrebounding opponent by 15 or more, winning by 7.7 points per game.

This is the early 7:00 Eastern start on ESPN and Louisville is 10-3 OVER as a favorite this season.

Longhorns coming up short

Texas hits the Big 12 road for the first time since losing at Kansas State and is off immensely disappointing home loss to Baylor 80-77 in overtime, as nine-point chalk. Texas (18-3, 8-9 ATS) has not been playing with the same urgency they were earlier in the season and has dropped three of last four. Opposing teams have bothered the Texas guards who have been dribbling too much and not getting offense into motion by passing the ball. Some Longhorns backers wonder if the team would be better served have a more set rotation of players having specific roles. They are just 5-18 ATS against conference opponents over the last two seasons, which includes current 0-6 spread mark in 2010.

After facing the frenetic pace at Missouri two days ago, another team that can get up and down the floor is next for Oklahoma State (16-5, 9-5-1 ATS). As usual it was physically and mentally draining contest in Columbia, losing 95-80, committing 24 turnovers and the Cowboys starters will be tested, since points off the bench are like the scenery from Stillwater to Austin, not much. Outside of James Anderson, perimeter shooting for Okie State is thinner than Kate Moss. The Cowboys have to shoot well since they are 8-46 ATS when they make 34 to 39 percent of their shots.

Texas is a 2.5-point fave in Stillwater and is putrid 6-17 ATS after a Big 12 game over the last two seasons. It will be a raucous setting for Okie State who is 17-7 ATS in all home games since 2008. Gallagher-Iba Arena hasn’t been hospitable for Texas, who is only 2-5 SU and ATS in previous seven visits.

Saturday College Buckets

Men’s college basketball takes over on Saturday’s for the next several months with a boatload of action for sports bettors and those that like to handicap. The coverage is coast to coast and goes from morning until past midnight depending on your location. CBS Sports has a Big Ten battle and two interesting non-conference clashes. ESPN has its usual Big East confrontation early in the day and a top shelf ACC encounter in prime time. This week we also take a look at an unusual matchup in the Colonial Conference, with one team expected to contend and another trying to work its way up. It promises to be a super way to enjoy a Saturday. Lines courtesy of Bookmaker.com. (Note: Though childish, take a look where Duke player's left foot is. He probably left the Wake Forest player with a pair of blue devils)

Michigan State at Minnesota (-2,138.5) 12:00E CBS

Kudos to coach Tom Izzo, understanding his team and the chemistry involved after finishing runner up for the national championship. Michigan State (16-3, 7-11 ATS) was lacking a spark early in the year, as several of last year’s players had not shown improvement. Izzo witnessed sophomore forward Draymond Green was his most consistent player, but felt he might get lost as a starter. Instead, Izzo made Green his sixth man, which has light a fire for the Spartans virtually every game he’s entered. Green rebounds, blocks shots, creates steals and scores, making him an instant success every time he hits the floor. The Spartans are 18-7-2 ATS on the road off of three straight home games.

Minnesota (12-6, 9-8 ATS) has played frenetic defense all season, holding teams to 38.5 percent shooting, something you would expect from a Tubby Smith coach squad. It’s never flashy, but extremely frustrating for opponents trying to find open shots and passing lanes. Minny is 8-1 ATS at home when opponents convert 31 to 37 percent of three’s. The Golden Gophers have been bolstered on offense with Blake Hoffarber who has regained his shooting touch, especially from beyond the arc. He and Lawrence Westbrook will need big games to slow down Spartans.

The Spartans are 7-3 SU at “The Barn”, with 5-3-2 ATS record.

Villanova at St. John’s (+6.148.5) 12:00E ESPN

Though seldom mentioned with the coaching elites, it’s time Jay Wright starts getting his props nationally as one of the finest coaches in college basketball. He recruits young men with a certain type of work ethic, they leave Villanova (17-1, 13-4 ATS) a far better player than when they arrived and as any opposing coach will honestly admit, watching film on Nova is a treat with the intensity and execution they play with. Senior Scottie Reynolds is the tougher than nails leader who gives the Wildcats a chance to win each time out. Villanova is 8-2 ATS against teams with winning record.

This was supposed to be the year. Coach Norm Roberts had preached patience as he collected more talent for St. John’s (12-6, 8-6-1 ATS) and this season the Red Storm were to move up the Big East pecking order. With a number of good non-conference outings, expectations were percolating, however a 0-3 start turned the attention on Roberts and where the program is truly headed. St. John’s players openly have questioned each other’s commitment to winning, which meant unless they can made something positive happen immediately, it was setting up to be another sorry season for the Johnnies. The St. John’s have responded by winning two of last three and upset of Villanova could be a signature win. The Red Storm is 13-3 ATS on playing on Saturday’s.

Villanova has won seven of last eight (6-2 ATS) encounters.

Ohio State at West Virginia (-6,133) 2:00E CBS

The Buckeyes (14-5, 10-9 ATS) takes a break from Big Ten action to make the trek to Morgantown. Ohio State has responded with playing better basketball with the return of their best player Evan Turner. His inspired play has led to the Buckeyes playing better a team, with each teammate being back in their role before Turner suffered back injury. Coach Thad Matta has been tinkering with different defenses and his skill will be called into question against diverse West Virginia squad. The Buckeyes are 82-35 ATS when they make 47 to 53 percent of shots attempts.

The Mountaineers (14-3, 6-10 ATS) have proven two things this season, when they come prepared to play, they are Top 10 team and when they don’t they are as beatable as any other college basketball squad. Coach Bob Huggins demands defensive intensity and when West Virginia players deliver, the offense works much more fluidly. After losing to Purdue earlier, West Virginia has opportunity to extract Big Ten revenge on the Buckeyes. The ‘Teers are 21-10 ATS vs. teams who attempt 21 or more three-point shots a game on the season after 15 or more contests.

West Virginia is 10-3 after a victory with 4-8 ATS mark. Ohio State is 11-1 UNDER against the Big East.

Texas at Connecticut (+3, 147) 4:00E CBS

No one can claim this talent-laden Texas (17-1, 8-6 ATS) team has taken the easy way out scheduling wise this season. Besides playing in the arduous Big 12, the Longhorns have gone out of their way to take on some the best schools from the top conferences and will again to play Connecticut. The Texas roster is a puzzle for opposing coaches to figure out. Focus on Damion James and Dexter Pittman and Avery Bradley or Gary Johnson can carve an opponent up. The other aspect that shines thru, the Horns players seem to genuinely enjoying playing with one another and share the glory. Texas is 14-0 and 8-2 ATS in non-conference games this campaign.

Evidently Big East play isn’t challenging enough for Connecticut (12-6, 6-9-1 ATS), they have to find a team that is one of the finest in the country to break up the conference slate. All kidding aside, coach Jim Calhoun ( now on medical leave) has played encounters like this the last several years as a refocusing distraction, to test the mental awareness of his players with February not far away. For the most part, the Huskies have played about as expected; nonetheless having Ater Majok and Charles Okwandu elevate their play improves UConn considerably. Connecticut is 16-8 ATS in January games since 2007.

Texas comes to Connecticut off its first loss of the season and hasn’t played well this month, with 0-5 spread record and barely beating Texas A&M CC 76-70. The Longhorns are 1-9-1 against clubs with a winning home record. The Huskies are 9-3 in non-conference action, with sordid 2-8 ATS record.

Old Dominion at William & Mary (+4.5,125) 7:00E WSKY

The standings in the Colonial Conference have many of the usual suspects, however one is different. William & Mary (14-4, 9-4-1 ATS) has been hanging around the upper echelons of the league this season, with coach Tony Shaver’s club displaying supreme confidence. Point guard Quinn McDowell has been the catalyst, playing close to mistake-free as the Tribe has the fewest turnovers in the conference. William & Mary’s confidence comes from how they have played on road where they are 7-3 and 7-2 ATS. Off their defeat at Virginia Commonwealth, the Tribe is 7-1 ATS following a SU loss.

Old Dominion (15-5, 6-9-1 ATS) was the preseason pick to win the Colonial and they look the part in a three-way tied for first place. The Monarchs play superior defense like always (55.5 points per game) and are the league’s top rebounding team. Though the season has gone well, coach Blaine Taylor made a lineup switch, putting guard Kent Bazemore into the starting lineup and the results have been fantastic. At 6’4, Bazemore gives ODU more size in the backcourt and his length creates defensive issues for smaller opponents. The Monarchs are 11-3 off a SU win, with underwhelming 4-7 ATS mark this season, which reflects the past since they are 8-20 ATS after a triumph.

Old Dominion is 8-4 and 7-5 ATS at the Williamsburg, VA campus and the visiting team has covered five in a row.

Duke at Clemson (+1,146) 9:00E ESPN

You can bet coach Mike Krzyzewski has worked Duke extra hard in preparation for prime time affair at Clemson. Coach K remembers firsthand how the Tigers can play at Littlejohn Coliseum, losing 74-47 their last year. He’s also seen what Clemson did to North Carolina, building 20-point lead in the first eight minutes of the game and cruising to victory over the Tar Heels. That is why the play of guard Jon Scheyer is so critical, keeping Duke (15-3, 11-6 ATS) from playing at too frenzied a pace. The Dukies are 8-19 ATS in road games vs. clubs outscoring their opponents by 12 or more points a game after 15 or more tries.

Backed with its home crowd, the Tigers memories are fresh from being embarrassed at Duke on Jan. 3, losing 74-53, totaling just 12 points in the first 20 minutes. Senior forward Trevor Booker is the energy of this team and its most important player. When Clemson (15-4, 9-7 ATS) has to set up offense, allowing Booker to at least touch the ball, good things usually follow. He’s skilled around the basket and finds open shooters off the bounce. Unquestionably, the Tigers play better at home and they are 21-10 ATS when they force 14 to 18 turnovers.

Duke is off upset loss at N.C. State and looks for quick turnaround victory, since they are 5-0 and 4-1 ATS after a spread loss in lined games. Clemson is 9-1 and 6-1 ATS on their home floor and last year’s win at home was the first in 10 vs. Duke, with 4-5-1 ATS record.

College Basketball Betting Weekend

The college basketball slate is full of games for Saturday and Sunday, with a myriad of betting choices. Many sports bettors love the action and the ability to view what they’ve bet on and we have keyed on the most important games of the weekend in detail. Check out the most pertinent of information before making your selections this weekend. Lines from Bookmaker.com.

Saturday, Jan. 16

Dayton at Xavier (-5.5,135) 11:00E ESPN2

The weight of expectations starts to take hold as Dayton (13-3, 7-6 ATS) is the favorite to end Xavier’s run as Atlantic-10 champions. The Flyers, under coach Brian Gregory, are built with defense and rebounding as the cornerstones and this season they have a wider array of players that can put the ball in the basket. Forward Chris Wright has led the way for Dayton as he tops the team in both scoring and rebounding, while sophomore guard Chris Johnson is second in points scored, from a fairly balanced attack. The Flyers have won last two games, but failed to cover each and are 4-1 and 2-3 ATS after failing to cover the spread this season.

Xavier (11-5, 10-5 ATS) might not be a powerful as recent years; however they are still extremely dangerous. New coach Chris Mack has been tinkering with the lineups and inserted sophomore center Kenny Frease at the end of last month. Frease has added size, scored a few points and mostly importantly improved the rebounding, giving Musketeers fans hope they might be stronger A-10 contender than presumed. Xavier does need greater contributions from Jordan Crawford, the team’s only true swingman. His scoring has been uneven most of the year for Musketeers team that is 22-12 ATS at home the last few seasons.

In the last dozen years, Xavier is 12-0 SU hosting Dayton with 8-4 ATS record.

Syracuse at West Virginia (-4.5,144) 12:00E ESPN

It’s the middle of three road games for the Orangemen, heading to Morgantown. As good as Syracuse (16-1, 10-3 ATS) has been, they’ve only faced one real physical team all season which was Pittsburgh and they lost. West Virginia (13-2, 6-8 ATS) will be the second such foe on the schedule with those qualifications and more talent. This becomes a critical game for Syracuse, since if they don’t compete in standing up with more physical style the Big East plays, every team the rest of the year will look to push and shove the Orange around. Syracuse has won and covered three in a row and is 15-5 ATS following a SU win.

Forward Devin Ebanks is known as a scorer, but has shown a maturity to his game, sacrificing shots, by passing the ball to teammates that have more wide open shots and rebounding the ball. In other words, the kind of unselfish play coach Bob Huggins wants. Da’Sean Butler is another playing a high level, being mentioned already for various Big East honors. West Virginia will certainly test Syracuse’s manhood and the loud Mountaineer fans will try to make an impact. This is astonishing; coach Huggins teams are just 8-20 ATS at home vs. top caliber teams outscoring their opponents by 12 or more points.

The ‘Cuse is 14-3 and 11-6 ATS in last 17 outings vs. the ‘Teers.

Georgia Tech at North Carolina (-7,155) 2:00E ESPN

The Yellow Jackets (12-4. 7-4 ATS) have made great strides of improvement this season, thanks to coach Paul Hewitt’s recruiting efforts, yet the foundation of this club is 6-9 forward Gani Lawal. The junior received an appraisal last spring that he was not a first round draft choice in the eyes of NBA personnel and took the constructive criticism to heart. He’s emerged as a team leader, showing the first year players what it takes to succeed at this level and Lawal will have to have a big game against North Carolina’s tall timber in the frontcourt. The Yellow Jackets are only 46-70 ATS in road games vs. shooting teams making 45 percent or more of their attempts.

Watching North Carolina (12-5. 6-9 ATS) play this season, is much like a buffet restaurant. The vast amount of food looks delicious, you load up the plate, but half way thru you realize the food doesn’t have a lot of taste and in the end; you are left content but not satisfied. That is what Tar Heel basketball has been to this point, often good, sometimes remarkable, but over 40 minutes, too many dead spots to make it truly satisfying. Turnovers are what continue to plague North Carolina and it’s just not the guards, all players have been guilty. Unless they clean this area up, they will go on as poor ACC wager with 6-14 ATS record.

Since ’97, the Tar Heels are 11-0 and 6-5 ATS against Georgia Tech.

California at Washington (-1.5,159) 2:30E FSN

The Cal Bears (11-5, 8-7 ATS) have been among the more disappointing teams in the country this season. They along with Washington figured to be the best of a mediocre Pac-10 lot. Unfortunately, like many teams that are perimeter oriented, sometimes the shots don’t fall and opposing teams are better prepared this year for California’s long range attack. Coach Mike Montgomery is hoping for the continued development of centers Markhuri Sanders-Frison and Max Zhang to create more options for team. The Bears won at Pullman 93-88 Thursday and are 2-7 ATS after scoring 90 or more points.

Washington (11-5, 4-12 ATS) too has disappointed, in spite of a strong returning crew and nice blend of reserves and incoming freshmen. The Huskies weaknesses have been the defense does not man up well and is easier to break down in longer possessions or if they don’t create steals. When forced into a half-court game, the outside shooting has not been reliable and opponents keep the lane locked tight, preventing points in the paint. Above all, Washington has shown a decided lack of toughness. They stifled Stanford 94-61 as nine-point home favorites in last outing and need to prove they can play well again, being 2-7 ATS this season after a victory.

California is 4-1 SU and ATS vs. Washington, including two wins and covers at Bank of America Arena.

Purdue at Northwestern (+6.5,132) 5:30E BTN

Basketball prognosticators knew Purdue (14-2, 8-8 ATS) was going to be a very good team coming into the season. The Boilermakers had experience, continuity of playing together for a couple of years and a strong work ethic. What has transformed Purdue into a national power is the elementary aspects of basketball. They force almost eight more turnovers than they commit, they are much better rebounding team than a season ago and they make roughly 75 percent of free throw attempts to ice away games. They have hit a bump the last couple of contests, not playing 40 minutes of basketball in either game. Purdue will have to find themselves quickly since they are 3-8 ATS on the road.

Northwestern’s (12-4, 8-4 ATS) confounding start landed them in the Top 25 briefly; however conference play has brought about new challenges. The Wildcats despite severe injuries had thrived because of the play of mighty mite, 5’8 Michael “Juice” Thompson. He ignited the offense, scoring and setting up teammates. Big Ten opponents had taken notice and have squeezed “Juice” not allowing him to roam as freely. Conference clubs have also been prepared for the Wildcats various zone defenses. Northwestern lost to Wisconsin at home in last encounter and is 5-9 ATS after a defeat.

The Cats have played well against Purdue with 10-4 ATS record.

Sunday, Jan. 17

Connecticut at Michigan ( ) 1:30E CBS

The Huskies (11-5, 5-8-1 ATS) knew coming into the season, despite plenty of size, they were not going to have the same scoring power with the departure of Jeff Adrien and Hasheem Thabeet. Their absence has expanded the roles of Stanley Robinson and Gavin Edwards and both have taken the challenge and become more complete players. What coach Jim Calhoun is seeking is Ater Majok and Charles Okwandu to be more valuable contributors, instead of players just using up minutes. With its size, UConn is 11-3 ATS when they grab 10 or more rebounds than their opponents.

Michigan (9-7, 5-7 ATS) knows what to expect every night from Manny Harris, being one of the best players in the Big Ten. And coach John Beilein knows what to look for from DeShawn Sims, his most versatile performer, who creates matchup issues for opponents. What has been lacking most of the season is that dependable third option. Laval Lucas-Perry, Stu Douglass or Zack Novak have all had their moments, nevertheless, sometimes they have failed all together also. With Connecticut’s decided size edge in this contest, the Wolverines cannot afford to make less than 30 percent of three point attempts, since they are 3-16 ATS when they do.

Wake Forest at Duke ( ) 8:00E FSN

The Demon Deacons (12-3, 6-6 ATS)have one major weakness – outside shooting. Against teams they can overwhelm with their physical skills, the issue still persists, however is less noticeable. Playing against better quality competition, particularly those in the ACC that know their conundrum, well that is how the losses start accumulating, especially on the road. Freshman forward Ari Stewart can score from the outside, yet he is still learning about shot selection. Wake Forest can play different styles and is 13-4 ATS against offensive teams like the Blue Devils scoring 77 or more points a contest.

Duke (14-2, 10-5 ATS) has shown to likely be the best team in the ACC, but they are for from infallible. Kyle Singler had a few off games of late and Nolan Smith will disappear at various points in games. As opposed to the last few seasons, the Blue Devils have room for improvement. Guard Jon Scheyer has been a rock at the point and the Plumlee brothers, Miles and Mason, are improving rapidly providing more help up front. Duke 34-18 ATS on home court when they attempt 63 to 69 shots and 8-4 ATS off a SU win this season.

Duke is 20-5 and 18-7 ATS vs. Wake Forest, including 11-0 SU and ATS since 1997.

Big East and ACC in spotlight

Four ranked teams from two of the premier conferences will showcase their talents this Wednesday. In the Big East, No. 16 Pittsburgh hits the road to No. 15 Connecticut, with the Panthers looking to stay unbeaten in conference play. Later, 12th ranked North Carolina visits 24th ranked Clemson, which will be a test of wills for each team trying to steady recent developments they have felt. For sports bettors, a very busy Hump Day.

Panthers on the prowl

It wasn’t supposed to be this way. Pittsburgh (13-2, 6-5-2 ATS) lost too much talent from a season ago and had too many gaping holes to be considered nothing more than a team that would finish fifth to eighth in the Big East. Instead, Jamie Dixon of Pitt is the mid-season favorite for national coach of the year with what he’s done in the Steel City. The emergence of Ashton Gibbs and the return of Gilbert Brown and Jermaine Dixon have seen the Panthers take off and with another conference upset, would stay tied with Villanova for the top spot. Pitt has always been able to play with physical teams and is 22-7 ATS versus clubs who average 40 or more rebounds a game.

Connecticut (11-4, 5-7-1 ATS) needs a positive right away after giving away a 19-point lead at Georgetown and falling 72-69.” It’s the most heartbreaking loss this year. It’s not even close,” coach Jim Calhoun said. “We took our 20 minutes of work, threw it away and said, ‘OK, now let’s play an even game.’”

Turnovers were the bugaboo for the Huskies, committing 15 in all. Coach Calhoun will try to get his guards to value the possession of the ball more, since UConn is 9-0 (4-4 ATS) when they commit 13 or less turnovers.

Connecticut is a six-point favorite at DiamondSportsbook.com and is 17-5 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less or pick. The Huskies are among the best defensive teams in the country holding teams to 37.2 percent shooting and will have to contain Pittsburgh. The Panthers magic formula for winning is shooting over 40 percent, as they are 12-0 and 5-4-2 ATS.

This Big East battle starts at 7 Eastern on ESPN2 with Connecticut 6-2 and 4-4 ATS in last eight meetings at home.

ACC foes on the mend

North Carolina (12-4, 6-8 ATS) was stunned at College of Charleston 82-79 and came back and beat Virginia Tech by 14 in next outing. Clemson was duped at Duke, losing by 21 points and rebounded with 72-56 win over Boston College as nine-point favorites. Each ACC will look to continue winning ways this evening.

One of Roy Williams coaching axioms is he doesn’t play favorites. If one of his players is playing great and the other average, the one giving the better effort will start and use up the majority of minutes, that’s his belief. Normally by now, Williams is into comfortable starting five and other roles have been defined, but not this year, as many players have taken two steps forward and one back. The Tar Heels are 40-25 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last three seasons.

You can’t help but be impressed with the job Oliver Purnell has done at Clemson (13-5, 8-5 ATS). In the past, losing as many quality players as last year would have spelled rebuilding on the South Carolina campus, but not these days. Purnell has imported a continual flow of players like freshman Noel Johnson and Devin Booker, meshing with established players like Trevor Booker and Demontez Stitt. Purnell realizing he has 10 players not that different ability-wise, opened up competition for starting spots, to keep guys hungry. The Tigers are 11-2 ATS at home against teams making 45 percent of their shots.

Clemson will seek to improve upon 4-6 and 5-5 ATS mark at Littlejohn Coliseum vs. the Heels and is a four-point favorite to do so. The Tigers are 6-0 ATS at home versus good three-point shooting teams making 37 percent or more of their attempts over the last three seasons.
This is the 9:00 Eastern clash on ESPN and North Carolina is 3-11 ATS off a win against a conference win since last season.

College Basketball Weekend Action and Note

I just want to thankk everyone that dropped by the last 10 days, things have been sparce around 3Daily Winners. I had a horrible cold and have not done anything besides work. No betting, no anything. I finally went to the doctor yesterday and got the drugs I needed to finally break this. I running well behind on many things, but should be back to normal by Monday and might even have stuff for the weekend besides the NFC Wild Card games. Again thanks.

The conference action goes into high gear this weekend, this a number of super matchups that immediately will have an impact on league play throughout the country. Saturday will showcase contests from the Big East, Big Ten, ACC, Big 12 and the Mountain West to name a few. On Sunday, after getting a real scare from Cornell, top-ranked Kansas travels to Knoxville for late afternoon matchup with Tennessee. Lines from Bookmaker.com

Saturday, Jan. 9

Connecticut at Georgetown (-5, 132) 12:00E ESPN

The Huskies (11-3, 4-7-1 ATS) are slowly growing as a team. The offense and defense are not quite to coach Jim Calhoun’s standards, however he’s finding more than enough to build on. Early in the season Calhoun was sometimes frustrated by different player’s efforts, that is no longer the case as he is instead more concerned with the execution. Kemba Walker and Stanley Robinson in particular have been playing well and the UConn team shooting percentage has been rising to present 46.5 percent, running the offense more precisely. Connecticut is 15-6 ATS in January the last few years.

Georgetown (11-2, 5-4 ATS) will be among the teams with the least amount of depth in the Big East, with only nine true scholarship players on the roster along with walk-ons. The Hoyas have a solid seven man rotation which can matchup with almost any team they will face in the league. The issue becomes when they incur foul trouble, suffer an injury that could take a player down for a number of games or if poor performance leaves coach John Thompson III seeking other answers. G-Town has been notoriously poor home team the last few seasons and is 9-21 ATS on home court over the last three seasons.

Since 1997, Connecticut is 4-2 SU and ATS at Georgetown with the total also 4-2 Over.

Purdue at Wisconsin (+1.5,125) 1:30E BTN

Among the couple of different Purdue logos’ floating around is a train with the name built into the black and gold logo. This turns out to be a very apt description of the Boilermakers (14-0, 8-6 ATS) basketball team, as they have steamrolled the competition for the most part this campaign. With the shooting eye still not always in focus, coach Matt Painter’s club has focused on two of his staples, defense and rebounding. Purdue players are so attentive to passing angles they clog the passing lanes like rush hour traffic and are ferocious rebounders, which is particularly important against a club like Wisconsin. The Boilers are 4-10 ATS after a spread cover.

In making preseason prognostications it is impossible to know how certain players will react in college, negatively or positively from year to year. Badgers forward Jon Leuer grew 10 inches in high school and the last 12 months his weight and agility have caught up to his size and he now ranks in the Top 10 in the conference in at least a half dozen categories. This helps explain why Wisconsin (12-3, 8-5 ATS) has been so productive with guards Trevon Hughes and Jason Bohannon running the show. The Badgers normally have low turnover figures which should limit Purdue’s scoring chances and Wisky is 25-8 ATS at home versus teams scoring 77 or more points a game.

The Boilermakers have won and covered four straight over Wisconsin including last two in Madison.

Duke at Georgia Tech (+7, 145) 2:00E ESPN

To this point of the season, this is a different Duke team then in the last few seasons under coach Mike Krzyzewski. The Blue Devils (13-1, 9-4 ATS) still have a great deal panache from the perimeter, however this season Brian Zoubek and the other Duke front court players have given them more production in the paint area and they can negate some other strength’s of opponents. This gives Coach K more options against bigger teams instead of having to play small, which has been the case in recent years. The Dukies are a stellar 63-34 ATS in January.

After falling to Florida State in ACC lid-lifter, Georgia Tech (11-3, 6-3 ATS) returns to conference play with three challenging conflicts starting with Duke. Coach Paul Hewitt brought in a sensational freshmen class and has played four of them extensively, often starting three of them. The Yellow Jackets have been buzzing around on defense, holding opponents to sensational 35.9 percent shooting, which has helped them to fast start. Against teams like Duke, Georgia Tech has to put the ball in the basket with greater consistency to improve on 30-14 ATS record home underdog or pick.

Duke is 10-1 and 8-3 ATS at Alexander Memorial Coliseum in last 11 visits.

Kansas State at Missouri (-5,158) 2:00E ESPN2

On the first of December, coach Frank Martin called out his talented squad, after narrowly defeating Fort Hays State, from the lower regions of collegiate basketball. Accepting responsibility, Kansas State players has been bulldozer, knocking down everything in its path, against pretty descent non-conference competition. Big 12 plays commences for K-State (13-1, 7-2 ATS) at a rugged venue in Columbia. Junior guard Jacob Pullen is among the scoring leaders in the conference, but he is receiving plenty of help from the likes Denis Clemente and others. The Wildcats are creating more turnovers than Pillsbury and are 15-3 ATS after leading their last two games by 10 or more points at the half.

The Missouri players could get arrested with all the thefts of the basketball they have had this season. The Tigers (12-3, 5-4 ATS) have had at least 10 steals in 13 different contests thanks to players like Zaire Taylor, Kim English and Keith Ramsey. Their quickness and understanding of coach Mike Anderson pressure defense makes this a dangerous club even if the baseline players are still trying to win jobs. The Tigers are 9-2 ATS at home vs. teams outscoring their opponents by four or more points a game over the last two seasons.

Missouri has mastered Kansas State at home with 10 wins in last 12 attempts, but is only .500 ATS.

UNLV at New Mexico (-4, 145) 4:00E VERSUS

This will be the close of three stern encounters for UNLV (12-3, 9-4 ATS), having lost the last two to USC and BYU. The Rebels go 11 deep and expect coach Lon Kruger to tighten that number down to nine. Though UNLV has played good defense, the beleif is the continual shuffling of players has at times caused offensive stagnation, with players not getting the ball where they can be most effective. Followers of the program see this team improving on offense, if they run patterned plays and get to the free throw lane. The Rebels are just 1-6 ATS in last seven conference clashes.

New Mexico (14-2, 10-5 ATS) has played better than anticipated, and the same five players have started every game. The Lobos have been outstanding in valuing possession of the ball, committing the fewest turnovers in the Mountain West. Point guard Dairese Gary has a ridiculous 5-to-1 assist/turnover margin and JC transfer Darington Hobson has shown a superb all-around game. New Mexico is 31-12 ATS at The Pit the last three seasons.

The Lobos are 6-3 and 3-5-1 ATS hosting UNLV since 2001.

West Virginia at Notre Dame (+5, 147) 8:00E ESPNU

Notre Dame (13-3, 5-4-1 ATS) plays mostly zone defensive trying to hide defensive deficiencies and for the most part does a pretty solid job in holding opposing teams to 70.7 points per game. West Virginia (12-1, 5-7 ATS) recently had 26 consecutive game streak snapped scoring 70 or more points, however is 49-1 SU under coach Bob Huggins when shooting a higher field-goal percentage than its opponent. Despite incredible depth, the Mountaineers have a lot of walking wounded and would prefer to stay away from shootout with the Irish since they are 0-9 ATS when they allow 75 to 80 points in a game.

Everyone knows the Notre Dame basketball team does their best work at home and this is their chance to at least grab a little national attention, tying to upset West Virginia. Notre Dame has worked to piece together a representative club for league play and would be near the bottom of the Big East without seniors Luke Harangody and Tory Jackson, the stalwarts of the program. Coach Mike Brey will need tremendous performances from this dynamic duo, with the role players stepping up. It about shooting for Notre Dame, who is 13-0 ATS when they make 47 to 53 percent of shot attempts.

West Virginia is 0-8 and 3-5 ATS at South Bend the last 13 years.

Sunday, Jan. 10

Kansas at Tennessee (+6,151) 4:30E CBS

To date Kansas (14-0, 6-5 ATS) has been right on schedule as the nation’s best team, and the schedule had failed to bring the necessary tests to assure the Jayhawks are cohesive on both ends of the floor for 40 minutes, until Cornell contest. Kansas may be 23-8 ATS playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons, but playing in Knoxville with its fans is a demanding task. The emergence of Xavier Henry has overshadowed the personal problems Cole Aldrich has been dealing with family matters. This is precisely the kind of contest vets like Aldrich and guard Sherron Collins have to shine.

The Volunteers (11-2, 5-5 ATS) are 19-5 ATS as a home underdog or pick and master motivator Bruce Pearl will have his squad geeked. He’ll have to with four suspended players, including All-SEC performer Tyler Smith. The four were arrested on drug and weapons charges following a traffic stop after their 66-59 victory over the Tigers on New Year’s Eve. Tennessee has not been knocking down long distance shoots with any regularity (33.7) and it’s hard to imagine they clip Kansas without the three-ball swishing thru the nets. Pearl will look to Wayne Chism, J.P. Prince, and Scotty Hopson to pick up the scoring slack for suspended players and hope Renaldo Woolridge can fill is admirably for Smith.

Top notch test for both teams, with Kansas 17-3 ATS vs. good defensive teams allowing 42 percent or less since last year.

One more day of college gridiron indulgence

All right, you made it this far, one more day of college football pageantry and you get your merit badge for taking in this many bowl games. After today’s group of five, its smooth sailing with individual games the rest of the way starting next week. Today’s five bowl contests take us to an unusual combination of locales throughout the day, starting in Toronto, heading south to Birmingham and Arlington, TX, followed by a trip to Memphis before ending in San Antonio. Kind of a where’s Waldo adventure. It doesn’t matter where they play them, as long as they do, with five more great betting opportunities on the second day of the New Year. Numbers from Bookmaker.com.

International Bowl
South Florida vs. Northern Illinois (+6.5, 50)
Rogers Centre – Toronto
12:00E ESPN2

The first three editions of this bowl north of the border weren’t all that competitive, as the Big East has swept the proceedings, including the last two by an average margin of 20.0 points per game. South Florida (7-5, 4-6 ATS) hopes to extend that streak when it takes on Northern Illinois (7-5, 6-5-1 ATS). The Bulls do not bring positive momentum, having gone both 2-5 SU and ATS in their previous seven outings. Northern Illinois is 7-5 but lost all four of its games (1-2-1 ATS) versus eventual bowl-qualifying teams. In fact, head coach Jerry Kill owns a 0-6 ATS record versus winning teams while with Northern Illinois.

Reason to watch and wager- On history alone South Florida gets the nod over Northern Illinois. The MAC is in the midst of another horrible bowl campaign (0-3, 0-2-1 ATS). The MAC is 1-8 SU against BCS conferences in last nine bowl games, with just two covers. The Bulls will have speed and superior athletes all over the field, but motivation certainly comes into question. Does a Big East team care about playing an average MAC team north of the border, well, that’s an easy answer. If freshman quarterback B.J. Daniels hits a few big plays against NIU, it’s easy to surmise South Florida comes out on top since they are 16-1 ATS when they gain nine or more net passing yards per attempt. For the Huskies it’s about getting to rushing average of 203 yards per game. If Northern Illinois can reach that threshold, they are 6-0 and 4-1 ATS this season.

3DW Line – South Florida by 6

Papajohns.com Bowl
Connecticut vs. South Carolina (-3.5, 51)
Legion Field – Birmingham
2:00E ESPN

Connecticut was the nation’s best spread-covering team in 2009, going 10-2 ATS, including 6-0 ATS as an underdog. Backers of the Huskies will look to go to the well one more time, as UConn is catching points vs. South Carolina. Both teams boast 7-5 records, with the Gamecocks having played one of the toughest schedules in the country. They were 3-5 SU but 5-3 ATS against fellow bowl teams. This is just the fourth time in 2009 Steve Spurrier’s team will have played as favorites. South Carolina is 22-3 and 15-9 ATS as chalk in his tenure, including 1-1 in bowl games. For the Huskies, this is a fourth-ever bowl game and they are 2-1 SU and ATS.

Reason to watch and wager- If you can’t decide which team to wager on in this contest by the time you are reading this, it’s probably best to pass, since half of the 24 games these teams played were determined by seven or less points. South Carolina has to appeal to SEC to get out of horrific November slate that has then sliding each year or find ways to recruit better players. South Carolina has a good defense team (20.4 PPG vs. opps. scoring 28.1) and pedestrian offense averaging 21.7. The lack of a consistent passing game leaves the Gamecocks at 8-20 ATS after passing for 170 yards or less. Connecticut once again performed well in the role of the underdog and averaged a surprising 32.1 points per game this season. If QB Zach Frazier can stay as hot as Papa John’s pizza (rare unpaid product placement) , UConn can rise to 10-2 ATS with two or more weeks of preparation.

3DW Line – Connecticut by 3

Cotton Bowl
Oklahoma State vs. Mississippi (-3, 50)
Cowboys Stadium – Arlington
2:00E FOX

Ole Miss and Oklahoma State last met in the 2004 Cotton Bowl, with quarterback Eli Manning and the Rebels pulling out a 31-28 win in his finale. The Rebels are 8-4 (5-5 ATS) in 2009 and will be putting a seven-game, non-conference ATS winning streak on the line versus the Cowboys. They have also fared well in bowl games with 7-1 SU and 6-1-1 ATS record in their last eight. Oklahoma State has the better record (9-3, 6-5-1 ATS) versus a tougher schedule, yet plays as the underdog. The Cowboys are 0-3-1 ATS all-time as bowl game underdog. The SEC has won and covered five of last six Cotton Bowls.

Reason to watch and wager -The Cotton Bowl is in name only changing venues to Jerry Jones palatial estate. This bowl matches two teams that didn’t live up to August Top 10 rankings. Oklahoma State at least had excuses not having two of its top three offensive stars for most of the season. This is a program in need of a quality win and they are just 9-18 ATS as an underdog. You hate to say it, but it was another Houston Nutt team that didn’t produce with expectations. Jevan Snead wilted under the limelight and was saved in part because of the brilliant play of Dexter McCluster, who carried the offense once November arrived. The Rebels are 30-14 ATS away from home playing against a team with a winning record. Think of this contest as mouthwash, with each team trying cleanse a less than desirable season.

3DW Line – Mississippi by 2

Liberty Bowl
Arkansas vs. East Carolina (-7.5, 59.5)
Liberty Bowl – Memphis
5:30E ESPN

East Carolina captured its second straight C-USA title by beating Houston in the league championship game 38-32. The reward of that accomplishment is another matchup with the SEC. The Pirates lost to Kentucky last season as favorites and in the 2010 edition and will be a good-sized underdog to high-scoring Arkansas. Coach Skip Holtz is 22-10 ATS as underdog and his team finished 6-1 and 5-2 ATS. The Razorbacks (7-5, 7-4 ATS) also played well down the stretch though, going 4-1 SU and ATS in their final five, while scoring 44.8 points per game. They have won just two of their past nine bowl matchups and are below average 3-6 against the spread.

Reason to watch and wager- East Carolina can pull the upset if their offensive and defensive lines can control the line of scrimmage. Coach Holtz learned from his father about the value of having linemen that can move the line of scrimmage either way. The Pirates can steal a victory if they move the chains against an Arkansas defense that yielded over 400 yards and have its talented front four bring consistent pressure QB Ryan Mallett. ECU’s pass defense is vulnerable in conceding 260 yards and without pocket pressure, they fall to 0-7 ATS in last seven non-conference games. Coach Bobby Petrino in an offensive mastermind and puts together great game plans to take advantage of opponent’s weakness. Expect him to do more of the same and hope his defense can make enough negative plays to influence the outcome of the game. The Razorbacks have covered six of last seven against teams with winning records.

3DW Line – Arkansas by 8

Alamo Bowl
Texas Tech vs. Michigan State (+7.5, 59.5)
Alamodome– San Antonio
9:00E ESPN

The Alamo Bowl game has been one of the few lately that Big Ten fans can actually look forward to. Their teams are 8-5 SU and 10-3 ATS since 1995. Big Ten squads showcase a 20-9-1 ATS record in their last 30 bowl games as an underdog of four points or more, which is the case in San Antonio. For this year’s contest, Michigan State (6-6, 4-6-1 ATS) has a poorer record than Texas Tech’s 8-4 mark, yet has the edge in several offensive categories, including pass yards per attempt. The Red Raiders (6-5 ATS) have not covered their last four bowl games and the Big 12 is 4-11 ATS in Alamo Bowl appearances.

Reason to watch and wager- Unfortunately the main story line on the 15th bowl game in three days will have little to do with football. The whole Mike Leach episode will play out over time, but for this contest it creates an opportunity for Michigan State. It would seem some division would occur within the Red Raiders locker room taking away focus. Their offense while incredibly potent is based on timing, which can be affected by long layoff. Texas Tech offense moves a little quicker on the carpet and they are 45-28 ATS in games played on turf. Michigan State has a wretched secondary, surrendering 223 yards or more in eight of the 12 contests. This means they are wholly dependent on squeezing the opposing QB in the pocket. The Spartans were erratic offense, but were much better when they had offensive balance running the ball, which is not a sure thing against a decent Texas Tech defense. Michigan State is 3-7 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points and covered just one contest in the second half of the season. This matchup looks like a Red Raiders rout, it all depends on their state of mind with shocking developments.

3DW Line – Texas Tech by 8

Going Green has payoff with right methods

In these times of trying to be environmentally friendly, it is good for the earth to do so. The three R’s are at the centerpiece of this movement, recycle, reuse and reduce. Buying in larger quantities helps reduce the amounts of garbage is placed in landfills. Other tips include product lifecycle, sustainability and value. In the spirit of looking to do what’s right for the earth, adding Green to one’s wagering account also is beneficial since the more greenbacks a person has; it makes it easier to buy in bulk.

Let’s be clear, Al Gore might not wholly endorse this idea, but winning college football wagers surely creates a friendly environment, especially in these economic times.

As mentioned, the first aspect to consider is lifecycle. While there is no way to know exactly what the future holds, a true Green investor likes to have a good start to the future based on prior results. Take these college football teams for example.

ATS Records
Idaho 7-0
Connecticut 6-0
Central Michigan 6-1
Nebraska 5-1
UL-Monroe 5-1
Wyoming 5-1
Alabama 5-2
Ohio State 5-2

As these college football teams approach or are at the midpoint of their respective schedules, they have shown to be worthy of furthering the cause of Going Green by generating a vast amount of cash. What these teams have proven is they can look the wisest of oddsmakers and prove to the world they are more wrong than your local weatherman.

In most cases, the sportsbooks don’t take too heavy a beating since many teams on this list are below or off many sports bettors radar. That’s just fine since the majority of us are more concerned about doing what is right within our means and would prefer the public stayed away from our opportunity to Green-up our world.

Idaho a wonderful example of exercising one’s right of Going Green. The Vandals have been like Robin Hood, taking from the rich and giving to the poor with six covers of the spread as underdogs, which has included five OUTRIGHT upsets. Idaho is bowl eligible for the first time since 1999, having last played a in bowl game the previous year in Boise, ID at the Humanitarian Bowl against Southern Mississippi. The Vandals were favorites last week against Hawaii, which was the second time this has happened in 37 games. Trips to Nevada and Boise State will be challenging, however this just might be year to back Idaho and stay in the green.

Another consideration is sustainability for Going Green. It won’t happen every year, but tried and true college football programs are like blue chip stocks, they may not pay out huge dividends every year, but over time your money will grow. This season such marquee names include Nebraska, Alabama and Ohio State.

The Cornhuskers haven’t been in the public eye a great deal since winning the national championship in 1997. Frank Solich was a good coach, but wasn’t a great recruiter and Bill Callahan would be wise to stay two states away from Nebraska. Bo Pelini has brought back the Husker mentality of playing hard-nosed defense and placed the offense in the hands of able assistant coaches. With a Top 12 defense and quality offense, the covers should keep coming in Husker Nation.

When Nick Saban was hired, everyone figured it was just a matter of time before Alabama was a national power again and were they ever right. Alabama is a physically dominant team on both sides of the ball and since Saban has been able to bring in these type of players, the Crimson Tide are rolling with 14-6 ATS record in the regular season the last two years.

It’s hard to imagine a name like Ohio State not being given their due, but the Buckeyes just go about their business and keeping winning games. This is far from one of coach Jim Tressel’s best squads in Columbus and sports bettors have been able to take advantage of the situation with oddsmakers dissing them to a certain extent. A couple points to remember about Tressel teams that have Buckeye leaves on helmets. Ohio State won’t cover all the time, but they seldom lose when they are not supposed. In 45 regular games the Buckeyes have been favored by 10 or more points since 2001, they’ve lost only three times, including at Purdue last Saturday. Since “The Vest” was in his second year, Ohio State has never had a losing ATS record on the season (52-38 ATS).

The final part of going Green is value. The whole aspect of doing what is right for the world doesn’t come easy; you have to work for it. A lot of time it costs money and energy spent in terms of consumable workload. The beauty of the putting in the time is there can be a payoff in the end.

Searching thru figures to find teams that have a stellar defense like Connecticut is invaluable to Going Green. Coach Randy Edsall had built a program on defense and though the Huskies offense can make an adult more squeamish than a Six Flags rollercoaster ride, few people constantly monitor every penny they make or lose. The Huskies bring home the money.

The MAC conference generally draws about as much attention as a Carly Simon comeback (google to see how many CD’s she sold with last project). This makes a team like Central Michigan a valuable commodity. The Chippewas have been putting up outstanding offensive numbers since Dan LeFevour arrived at Mt. Pleasant what seems like eight years ago. LeFevour’s first two years C. Mich was 18-7-1 ATS, however last year without much of a defense, they sank to 5-7 against the spread. With 10 starters back on the defensive side, covering spreads is back to normal for Central Michigan.

Wyoming has scored 10 points or less three different times including being shut out twice, however that hasn’t stopped them from posting 4-3 SU record and sparkling spread mark. The Cowboys have relished the role of underdog and are 4-1 against the spread in that situation. With the offense lagging, Wyoming’s defense has raised the level of their play in 2009 with its eight returning starters. Take away the 41 points they allowed to No. 3 Texas and these Cowboys have permitted just 17.7 points per game.

Our hope this has been a valuable lesson in understanding some of the elements of what it takes and what it means to Go Green. Now is the time to get it right since Dec. 5 is the last day to have everything in order before a different type of opportunity presents itself for going even further Green, with the bowl season.

Michigan State vs Connecticut Wagering Preview

No, it is not true that the city of Detroit has been invaded by an army of Gumby’s or space aliens (though Michigan fans might believe so), it’s just the green-clad Michigan State fans have over-ridden the Motor City with the hopes their team can become national champions for the second time this decade. As coach Tom Izzo continues to morph into his mentor and predecessor Judd Heathcote, he keeps churning out Final Four teams, nearly at the same pace as the octumom.

There has been much discussion about what impact the huge crowd will have on the outcome of the Michigan State and Connecticut contest. In truth, the affect should be far less than anticipated and here is why. Because of the NCAA looking to expand revenue sources, they have set up new business model to play in stadiums that can hold 60,000 or more by centering the court itself. With your standard basketball court just under one-third the size of a regulation football field, the crowd itself is further removed from the action. Because the sound is less contained due to the size and a large portion of the crowd doesn’t have a rooting interest per se, this negates what would seem to be a big edge for Michigan State.

If you asked Connecticut coach Jim Calhoun if he rather play at Ford Field or at gym that holds 4,000 screaming fans tightly packed and rooting against his club, he would take the former.

Connecticut (31-4, 17-14 ATS) arrives in the Motor City 8-1 ATS in road games after playing three consecutive games as favorite this season. The Huskies main attributes are their ability to control the paint on defense and score easy baskets in transition. Hasheem Thabeet is the ruler in the lane, swatting away and altering shots whenever he is on the floor. Stanley Robinson is another player that plays help defense near the rim and generally cleans up what Thabeet can’t reach. Robinson became the missing piece when Jerome Dyson was sidelined, becoming more of a scorer along with his talents to rebound and play defense.

UConn scores 78.5 points per game on the season and is averaging 87.2 PPG in the tournament, including the 82 against Missouri in the Elite Eight encounter. Connecticut is 8-2 ATS in road games after scoring 80 points or more and follows the lead of guard A.J. Price.

The senior guard has a lot of responsibility. When the offense is running smoothly, Jeff Adrien, Craig Austrie and others are positioned properly to score and Price finds his spots. When the halfcourt offense becomes choppy or stifled, which will happen frequently against Michigan State, Price is expected to bail them out. If Kemba Walker can maintain the same confidence he displayed again Missouri, he could be wild card for coach Calhoun, however that seems unlikely since game should not be as free-flowing.

It took a couple of years, but coach Izzo knew and understood the changes in college basketball. His 2000 title team and many others he had were power teams, much like a football team that runs the ball and stuffs the run. Izzo later saw in non-conference play and in the tournament, this style wasn’t going to work and changed his recruiting to more athletic players, teaching them his principles. For a few seasons, he has players not willing to work as hard as he wanted and the results showed.

Things started to change with last year’s recruiting class led by Kalin Lucas and Durrell Summers. These two were quick and contrarian to typical Big Ten guards and could run out on the break. Seniors Goran Suton and Travis Walton saw that this type of basketball could work in East Lansing and with Raymar Morgan, the Spartans had the ability to easier adapt to more than one style of play, which is why they are 14-4 ATS in all neutral court games over the last two seasons.

Michigan State (30-6, 19-13-1 ATS) doesn’t play the sticky defense of years ago, holding teams to under 40 percent; instead they just don’t allow many points. Throw out the non-caring performance against Ohio State in the Big Ten tourney and the Spartans have surrendered just 58 points per game in last 10 tries.

Betjamaica.com has Connecticut as four-point favorites with a total of 133.5.

The Huskies win and cover if Thabeet and Price in particular stay out of foul trouble. Connecticut can take away a Spartans strength being the second-best rebounding team in the nation (regular season). They are 8-2 ATS in road games versus teams outscoring their opponents by eight or points a game and are 11-2 OVER in all neutral court games. If Adrien and Robinson score, the Huskies should be expected to advance to Monday night.

Michigan State pulls the upset if they hit their outside shots. Connecticut has shown they won’t foul much and the lane will be clogged. If Suton can step out like he did against Louisville, that has to pull Thabeet away from the basket, opening up lanes for others to exploit. The Spartans are 16-6 ATS as a neutral court underdog of six points or less and do a terrific job defending the perimeter, but since UConn is nothing special beyond the arc, the defense has to stop Connecticut’s mid-range game and limit dunks by their big folks to win. Sparty is 18-6 UNDER as an underdog.

In Final Four games the top seeds are 7-4 and 8-3 ATS, with the straight winner 19-3 against the spread.