Here comes the weekend plays

After one bad day, 3Daily Winners comes right back with 2-1 mark, lifting record to 133-74. This Friday we are on the hunt for more winners and begin with Sal’s Free Play. The Top Trend is a National Leaguer and the Best System is remarkable 87.7 percent! Good Luck

What I letting you know today – I believe ESPN is stretching its street cred by burying the LeBron James story. If you read the article, it doesn’t paint LBJ as some super hero, rather a guy in his mid-20’s, single, with his boys and having fun. Oh sure some words could be construed as crude, but put four or more guys in Vegas with a few drinks under their belt and what do you think would be said?

ESPN has chosen to make a non-interesting article a piece about their culture.

The GUARANTEED Plays are 4-2 the last three days and today we have a False Favorite in a 100 percent losing situation and National League road team that is up against a 20-4 situation. Grab one or both Guaranteed Winners today!

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) Play On all favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 like Toronto with a rested bullpen, having thrown two or less innings in each of the last two games, against opponent after a game where the bullpen threw six or more innings. Holy Snikes, this system is 50-7, 87.7 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Arizona is 2-14 in road games after batting .250 or worse over a 20-game span this season.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Sal has hit a good stretch with 9-2 record and backs the Twinkies as his top selection.

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Trying to keep the Winners coming this Sunday

A special salute to Ron, for giving us a ton of his Top Plays that were unbelievable consistent winners, super job Ron. The new kid in town is a familiar name, Sal, whose been building a bankroll of late. The Top Trend is perfection at 15-0 and only one system went past the 80 percent range and it is on ESPN tonight. Good Luck

What I noticed today – We are in the Top 9 in MLB for the last month at Cappers Monitor and Cappers Watchdog.

A 2-1 Saturday gives us 114-59 record (65.8 percent) here at 3DW on our plays.

You have to read this, Good Stuff -

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/features/mywish/news/story?id=5386827

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) Play Against all underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 like the Cubs, who is crummy offensive team scoring 4.1 or less runs per game, against a rock solid NL starting pitcher (ERA<=3.70), with a decent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 on the season. Since 2008, this system is 46-11.

Free Baseball Trend -2) A rare trend for the Toronto Blue Jays has them as 15-0 vs. AL teams scoring 3.7 or less runs game in the second half of the season since 1997.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Sal is +6.4 units the last few days and is riding Houston to punish Pittsburgh.

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Pounding out Friday Winners

Our 99-56 record with our plays here at 3Daily Winners is pretty damn good, but Ron of the Left Coast Connection is one sick dude with his baseball run. Check out his Free Play below. The Top Trend is in the Big Apple at 90 percent and the Best System is a sweet 80 percent over extended period. Good Luck

What I thought yesterday – With each passing day, I’m certain the “N” in ESPN stands for narcissistic.

Did you see this? http://www.newseum.org/todaysfrontpages/hr.asp?fpVname=OH_CPD&ref_pge=lst

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) Play On home teams with a money line of -100 to -150 like the Brew Crew, with a NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 6.20 or worse on the season vs. opposing pitcher who walked five or more hitters last outing. This fairly rare system is 32-8 the past 13 years.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Metropolitans are 9-1 in home games after scoring two runs or less this season, winning by 3.5 runs per outing.

Free Baseball Pick -3) He’s become Ron(do)–matic with three more winners last night to give him incredible 47-11 record on the base paths. Ron still has plenty in the tank and believes Jason Verlander and Detroit will have the Twins seeing double.

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LeBron-a-thon over, now what?

Don’t blame ESPN for this over-the-top made for TV flop, they did what any news outlet would have done in getting an exclusive story EVERYONE would have wanted to release and milked for all its worth.

Jim Gray has not been the same reporter since hounding Pete Rose at the All-Star game and was tamer than a docile old dog in not asking LeBron James how he explains his “loyalty” to Cleveland and Ohio by leaving.

If James thought he had pressure before, it’s only going to be worse with much higher expectations moving forward. Dwayne Wade already has a ring and Chris Bosh is the third wheel to fit this tricycle. For casual fans of the NBA, it is assumed the new Three Amigos or Miami Thrice will win a few championships over the next several years.

That could well happen, but this is far from guaranteed. Forget about touches, sharing the ball and late game shots, that will work out over time. One difference between Boston’s Big Three and the South Beach Buds is the Celtic players were all adequate to superior defensive players. This is not the case with James, D-Wade or Bosh. The first two are good at getting into passing lanes and earning steals, but as straight-up defenders, most of the bouncers on Ocean Drive are more of a challenge to beat.

This means finding league-minimum players that can play defense and be adequate contributors on offense.

Hopping into the hot tub time machine, back to the mid-1970’s, the Philadelphia 76ers were similar to what Miami is trying to accomplish. They brought together superstars Julius Erving, George McGinnis and top line scoring guard Doug Collins (that’s right, the analyst and coach). In their time together, they went to the conference or NBA Finals four times, but never were crowned champs.

No question the Heat is to be taken seriously and the Los Angeles Lakers might have one more title in them, but the rest of the league is starting to flux, making this a good opportunity for this threesome to combine their super hero powers.

The Commish David Stern has to be thrilled having this buzz about his product and it will more or less continue right onto the opening tipoff in late October.

One last thing, Miami is now the betting favorite to be NBA champs at every sportsbook I checked today.

View other thoughts: http://msn.foxsports.com/nba/story/lebron-james-chasing-celebrity-not-championships-070910

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=5367298

Related LeBron fallout:http://www.covers.com/articles/articles.aspx?theArt=196407

LeBron James Sweepstakes

This whole LeBron James saga has taken on a life of its own and opinions certain very as to what others believe he should or will do.

(Read below)


http://espn.go.com/nba/
http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/blog/ball_dont_lie/post/LeBron-James-is-packing-his-beach-bags-for-Miami?urn=nba,254632

http://msn.foxsports.com/nba/story/Looking-at-best-options-for-LeBron-James


Personally, I believe his final decision will speak more to his character and honest beliefs than anything else.

If he’s truly interested in winning championships, there are three locations, Miami, Cleveland and Chicago.

The Heat offers the best chance to win now with D-Wade and Chris Bosh already in the fold. People are comparing this to Boston Celtics “Three Amigos”, but it is clearly not.
Ray Allen, Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce were all players who had enjoyed lengthy careers and were on the back side of peak performance when they got together. A James, Wade and Bosh connection has all three right in the heart of their best years and let’s not forget egos. Can it work, without a doubt, but each will have to give up a part of their game and other pieces are still necessary.

To stay in Cleveland, James has to trust ownership and front office that they will find the right pieces to bring a champion home. Best financial deal for LeBron in terms of contract and Betty White’s pleas are hard to ignore.

Chicago is not as good as it looks, at least at the moment from talent perspective. Derrick Rose would be a huge upgrade for James from the guard spot, however many of the rest of the Bulls players are somewhat similar to what the “King” has played with in Cleveland.

If James were to sign with New York or New Jersey, that would explain his true motive, building his brand. In a perfect world, the Knicks and Nets would have to make flawless decisions over the next three years to even be considered as legitimate conference contenders. Neither organization has shown the intelligence to make that happen, however both have dollars or rubles to put together package and marketing potential is endless, but presently so could the team losses.

Best guess here is Miami or Cleveland.

NBA Finals Thoughts

The Los Angeles Lakers are the kings of the NBA for the 11th time in L.A. and the 16th time in franchise history. When it is all said and done, that’s all that matters, but my goodness, we as fans had to sit and watch this less than epic Game 7.

In retrospect, given the choice between watching the Celtics and Lakers deciding contest and giving my dog peanut butter to lick from his mouth for roughly three hours, the latter at the very least had comedic possibilities.

There was no question both teams were putting in a great deal of defensive effort, how else would you explain 98 missed shots out of 154 taken? (Let’s not forget the 12 uncontested missed free throws the team from L.A. clanged off the rim)

However, it wasn’t all great defense. It was easy enough to spot the difference.

Wide open shots were careening off the rim like the basketballs were filled with helium. Yes, many shot attempts were certainly highly contested, yet if you witnessed the footwork of the players launching these wayward heaves, even when they created space being guarded by a single player, they were typically off-balance, leaning one direction while shooting the orange.
The best way to describe it for football fans, it was the equivalent of a quarterback having happy feet in the pocket after facing a relentless pass rush.

ABC/ESPN analyst and former NBA coach Jeff Van Gundy went to the line, but did not cross it giving out his true feelings about what we was being paid to watch and describe.

Van Gundy notes about halfway thru the fourth quarter, this was some of the worst offensive basketball he could remember seeing in a game of this magnitude. He realized what he just said honestly as coach and reverted back to being an announcer, adding that indeed the defense was also very good, contributing to the poor execution.

If Van Gundy was given truth serum or an adult beverage or two, my bet would be he thought the players were in full C-word mode. Even Kobe Bryant touched on the subject in the post game news conference. “Tonight it got the best of me,” Bryant said immediately after the game after 6-24 shooting performance.

“Sometimes you want something so bad it slips away from you.”

You know how Betty White became a sensation again thanks to Facebook; already Bricklayers of America are petitioning on Facebook and Twitter both the Lakers and Celtics players be the keynote speakers at next convention based on their expertise.

In the end the Boston Celtics missed Kendrick Perkins or at least it seemed that way as they were clobbered on the boards 53-40, of which 23 were after a Lakers missed shot.

Though it felt like the C’s had the game well in hand at various points, the facts show they were outscored each of the final three quarters and the team that won the rebounding battle was 7-0 and 6-1 ATS in the series.

The game did supply NBA conspiracy theorists just what they wanted, the Lakers coming back to win the last two games at home in Game 7, once again you are correct. (At least in their own minds)

For NBA fans it’s on to the draft, while the rest of us put our noses back into studying baseball numbers to hopefully beat that sport on a daily basis.

World Cup Outlook

When events like this occur that garner worldwide attention, we Americans look so silly and trivial. Think back when we were the leading force globally, before the economy went around the globe; we thought the rest of the world should speak English like we do. Those days are gone and World Cup exemplifies the new world order. Thirty-two teams and 32 countries gather together to play the game of soccer for the right to be crowned World Cup champion.

I’m not going to process to be a soccer expert, but I can do the research. The first thing I learned, this is huge wagering event. Forget about betting in Nevada, small potatoes. In regulated wagering outlets worldwide, 1.5 billion will be bet and that number could go higher, given the fact the host South Africa is in similar time zone as most European markets. Plus, there will be millions more wagered at other wagering outlets that are not under the jurisdiction of various countries. The Super Bowl (83M wagered in Nevada last February) or NCAA basketball Tournament, those are American properties, the World Cup is the most wagered event in sports.

The World Cup isn’t about just who wins or loses and betting on Over/Unders, places like Sportsbook.com have an ample number of props bets as do all the various wagering outlets to entice the zealous better, just waiting to put their money down.

According to sharp soccer bettors, among the aspects studied are recent performances and the number of red cards handed out. The first point is obvious since if a team is in good or bad form, this could well carry over. The red card aspect is interesting, since as the article by Chad Millman in ESPN Magazine points out, teams that have piled up several red cards scored a half a goal less over the 90 minutes. (That factoid is from Kevin McCrystle of soccer wagering site wsn.com)

So who is favored to become the next champion, from the research nine teams are at least given a chance to claim the World Cup, though most soccer experts realistically narrow it down to four or five legitimate qualifiers.

9) Portugal +2800
Portugal was a semi-finalist in 2006 and returns the brilliant Cristiano Ronaldo and number of very good wing players. The talented Pepe is coming back from knee surgery and his performance may determine if the Portuguese can survive a tough Group G bracket that includes Brazil and the Ivory Coast.

8) France +2000
In terms of individual ability, France would almost certainly be in the semi-finals; however it’s more complicated than that. France needed Thierry Henry's infamous handball incident just to qualify and much-maligned coach Raymond Domenech has come under a great deal of fire of his handling of the team and his tactics. Talent yes, but obstacles have to be overcome in Group A.

7) Italy +1600
Betting the defending champions isn’t really a stretch and is a descent value. What most experts point to is most of the core players have returned, nevertheless they are four years older and might not hold up to the rigorous schedule. Enough people in the soccer world questioned why they didn’t bring up younger talent.

6) Germany +1200
The Germans have suffered tough personnel losses and will be without captain Michael Ballack and top goalkeeper Rene Adler. This might force Germany to use more offensive-minded 4-4-2 attack led by Mesut Ozil. Germany should move thru Group D rather easily.

5) Netherlands +900
This team has as much quality as any from the back line. Dutch winger Arjen Robben has been in tremendous form and with young Eljero Elia on the opposite flank, the Netherlands can present many problems for opponents. Why this club isn’t a true favorite is because keeper Maarten Stekelenburg is not thought of as completely reliable.

4) England +700
This squad is deep and experienced and as physically strong as any in the field. The biggest concern is if something would happen to Wayne Rooney, England lacks another game-changer. The English always bear the burden of heavy expectations from their loyal fans and have to play more freely.

3) Argentina +650
No team in the tournament has six legit goal scorers like Argentina. This could be a blessing or curse, trying to satisfy egos with proper playing time. With Argentina no better than average on the back line and in goal, the total could be most important factor in their contests.

2) Brazil +450
When one thinks of Brazilian soccer, flair and charismatic playmakers come to mind. Brazil will still have the likes of Robinho and Luis Fabiano, but coach Dunga wants to make sure defensive support is the utmost most important aspect. If Brazil plays as well as anticipated on defense, there are more than enough scorers that could lead to sixth World Cup crown.

1) Spain +375
Spain is the best and most talented team in the tournament. You can find flaws with any of the other 31 competing squads, just not the Spaniards. The reigning European champions have arguably the best netminder in the world in Iker Casillas and the rest of the defenders play stingy defense. Their midfielders are acclaimed as the best in the game and David Villa and Fernando Torres are electrifying performers. Difficult to bet against Spain.

Game 3 moves to Boston for NBA Finals

Don’t you just love the drama of the NBA Finals, everything is overanalyzed, everyone is seeking a unique storyline and all the conjecture goes right to the top. One day the Lakers are invincible, the next they might not play another game this season in Los Angeles. Boston is in the same predicament as Doc Rivers noted. “We lose and were old, we win and we have veteran experience.”

The easiest aspect to lose sight of is this is a series, a best of seven. That alone usually means twists and turns, especially when it is The Finals.

No question Rajon Rondo has had a fantastic playoff series for Boston, but ESPN’s Colin Cowherd is calling him the third best player in the NBA, just behind Kobe Bryant and LeBron James. (His reasoning why ahead of Dwayne Wade is because he’s taken his team deeper in the playoffs, disregarding the talent difference between the two clubs.)

Face the facts, Boston has too much leadership and experience to go down like a Cleveland, they have players that will find a way to contribute, even if a part of their game is not working 100 percent perfectly.

The Celtics return home where they are 31-19 and 19-30-1 ATS this season (7-2 SU & ATS in the playoffs). While Boston fans and backers are psyched they can end the series at home, it’s extremely unlikely to happen. As noted, the Celtics are far from a sure thing or bet at home and the Bryant surly attitude after Sunday’s loss would suggest he will come with a vengeance, if the referee’s let both teams play.

Both games in the Finals have gone Over the total, however not based on level of skill shown, rather by referee’s enjoying the tweeting of their whistles and evidently TV time. As compared to the Stanley Cup Finals where penalties are down compared to the rest of the playoffs, the basketball fouls are coming faster than Twitter ‘tweets”.

As John Hollinger of ESPN.com points out, after two contests the numbers show an average of 56 fouls and 67 free throws compared to regular season average of 41.7 and 49.1 per game, respectively. Though playoff basketball tends to be slower and more physical and a few more fouls would be expected to be called since teams will not concede layups as often. Nonetheless, the fouls for a four quarter Finals confrontation are up over 20 percent compared to the rest of the postseason.

NBA fans are not turning on The Finals to see Bryant, Ray Allen and several other players on the bench with ticky-tacky fouls that are not even called during the regular season.

In spite of the defeat, the Phil Jackson and company can’t be totally depressed. It took the best deep shooting performance ever by Allen and a triple-double by Rondo to knock off the Lakers with Bryant and Lamar Odom glued to the bench with fouls for lengthy periods. Though it is earlier than a couple of the other series they’ve played, L.A. is 18-6 ATS when tied in a playoff series since 1996.

Boston will look to keep the pressure on with Rondo forcing the issue with the ball and feeding the C’s big guys in the paint, to keep Pau Gasol and others busy, opening up the mid-range jump shooting game the Celtics prefer.

Sportsbooks have Rivers club as 2.5-point favorites with total of 192.5. It will be worth watching how both teams react in the first half traveling across the country and playing a game of this magnitude less than 48 hours after completing the prior conflict and losing additional three hours for time zone shift.

The rest aspect could be important for sports betting purposes with Boston 7-2 ATS with one day between contests and the Lakers 5-14 ATS.

Los Angeles is 13-3 UNDER in road games revenging a straight up loss as a home favorite, while the home team for Game 3 is 7-3 UNDER as playoff favorite.

The starting time moves back to 9:00 Eastern, with the Celtics 4-2 and 4-1-1 ATS when the Lake Show makes an appearance in Bean-Town the last three years.

Can Orlando make series compelling?

While waiting for the lines to come out on Game 5 between Boston and Orlando, did some perusing to see what the common man was thinking about this series after the Magic upset the Celtics 96-92 in overtime. Some were hilarious, other thoughts were insights into what Joe Average has running around in his dome, even if he still is allowed to drive and place online sports betting wagers.

The most common theme was this is all fixed by David Stern and Orlando was going to come back and tie the series at 3-3, with opinions varying who wins the deciding seventh game. This subject of fixed games will show up later this week in another article.

Many praised Orlando for not emailing it in and wondered aloud if this is the sign of the Magic finally playing up to capabilities or if it was a one night stand and reality comes a callin’ back at home. Most thought it was a gift to take Orlando at +7 seeing that was a two touchdown turnaround (14-point swing) in less than week, regardless of the location.

Equal numbers lambasted Boston for not bringing the necessary determination to close out opponent who had been all but willing to be beaten for large expanses of the series and questioned the Celtics commitment to excellence. What was read into this was they had the C’s minus the seven.

For those that see Stern as the reason the series was extended at least one more contest, it turns out the real culprit was Stan Van Gundy, the Magic coach.

Van Gundy may look like Ron Jeremy’s brother more than his own sibling Jeff; however he made two wise moves before Game 4 even started.

He had witnessed three games and broken down tape and determined Rajon Rondo was too disruptive as defender, especially against Jameer Nelson. Instead of setting single screens which Rondo routinely beat, he set up staggered screens.

This created more room for Nelson to operate, who is a shooter first and passer second as a point guard. Rondo couldn’t use his quickness to jump thru or around two Orlando players and Boston seemed puzzled as to what to do with Nelson in more open areas.

This placed different Celtics big men in no-man’s land and Dwight Howard for the first time had room to work with and the Magic’s offense had continuity, sending them home 16-5 ATS after failing to cover two of their last three against the spread this season.

While it’s impossible to gauge the impact, Orlando played more ready from the start. Van Gundy had told his squad no team had EVER come back from 3-0 deficit in the NBA playoffs (93-0), because they had not placed enough value on winning the fourth game in the series. Most of the Orlando players showed more passion and they own a diabolical angle moving ahead - 13-0 ATS after a win by six points or less this season, with average margin of victory 16 points.

Boston deserves plenty of blame for this series extension. The first aspect is the Celtics play after the third quarter in this East Finals. Most of the time Doc Rivers squad has enjoyed big leads going into the final 12 minutes and NBA contests have a natural ebb and flow, nonetheless after awhile you wonder about a team being outscored 105-78 in the last quarter and beyond. (Outscored all four games)

What has gotten the Celtics to this juncture is team basketball, yet in the last segments of game, a much larger volume of isolation plays are called or run, which is why Boston had such an awful spread record during the regular season by blowing leads for losses or non-covers. Despite the defense, it makes more sense why they are 5-17 ATS after two or more consecutive Under’s this year.

Oddsmakers have Orlando as four-point favorites, but they are only 2-6 ATS when doling out 4.5 or less points at home. Boston right now is not in scurrying mode from one loss –“There's definitely no need to panic. We like the position we're in," Ray Allen said. The Celtics are 15-5-1 ATS as postseason underdogs.

The Magic face a second match point trying to force a sixth conflict and build further momentum. ESPN will be on hand at 8:30 Eastern, with KG and company 11-2 UNDER revenging a straight up loss as a home favorite.

Respect your elders

Common on, be honest, you had the Boston Celtics playing in the NBA Finals right along with the thought of changing the oil in your car. The truth is you didn’t really believe either was going to happen, but it sounds good right now, having learned what veteran pride and know how can do.

While much of corporate America looks to slice payroll, force more early retirements and generally speaking hire a cheaper labor force without necessarily having a better replacements, the Boston basketball franchise embraces the elderly.

No question it is a fine line to walk, as for months Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen were having a difficult time keeping up with their hefty reputations, let alone playing a higher caliber of basketball. Boston limped into the playoffs with 3-7 SU and ATS record to close the season and most basketball fans and sports bettors thought the only way the light goes on for the Celtics was the “Clapper”.

For all that had gone wrong with Boston (27-26, 20-31-2 ATS since Dec. 27 until the end of the regular season), once the playoffs began, youth was served.

Rajon Rondo strapped the (aging) veteran stars on his back went took off. Rondo destroyed Miami and as that series wore on, one by one the “Big Three” from the Celtics joined him as a cohesive unit. Much like a younger person showing an older adult how to use their cell phone and various apps, Rondo got Boston rolling and they are 10-3 SU and ATS in the postseason, including punching winners on the last five contests.

After the C’s unceremoniously chopped up Cleveland, Orlando was supposed to finish of this Celtics revival. The Magic were younger, quicker and reportedly hungrier, playing the best basketball of any team for 2 ½ months.

Then something weird happened, something that would make legendary Red Auerbach smile. Boston went to Central Florida and ripped Orlando apart. Word was the Rondo and Jameer Nelson matchup was supposed to be special; instead it’s been the like Buffalo Bills in a Super Bowl.

The way the other Magic guards and forwards (except for J.J. Redick and Vince Carter in non-pressure situations) have wilted against Boston, you would have thought the games were being played outdoors on Church Street.

For roughly 35 minutes of each of the first two games, the way Orlando was scrambling on defense, you would swear it was 6 on 5, with Boston always finding the open man. The Magic might be 26-14 ATS having won 15 or more of their last 20 games this season, but they look like a befuddled bunch.

Online sports betting outlets have Boston as 3.5-point favorite, with total of 190 and they are 25-14 ATS after a win by six points or less. The Celtics have controlled the tempo series after series and is 13-3 UNDER against teams with winning records. Orlando still has a heartbeat, but is 15-31 ATS off two or more consecutive home losses and 9-1 UNDER after a close loss by three points or less.

ESPN will have Game 3 at 8:30 Eastern, with the favorite 1-6 and 0-7 ATS since May 17 of last year.

Orlando better come ready

The Boston Celtics exposed the Orlando Magic like Toto pulling back the curtain on the Wizard of Oz. Whether Orlando was not emotionally ready to play from the long layoff or listless after cruising past two dramatically weaker opponents, the facts are for three quarters the Magic looked liked they belonged in the Eastern Finals as much as the New Jersey Nets.

The crisp passing normally associated with Stan Van Gundy’s team amounted to a grand total of 10 assists in the series opener. The Magic players dumped the ball down to Dwight Howard and basically stood like statues in creating no movement on the perimeter, which forced Howard to rely on his limited offense game with nowhere to pass the ball.

While the Celtics deserve credit for keeping the Magic under 40 percent shooting for the first 36 minutes, their task was made much simpler with Rashard Lewis, Matt Barnes and Jameer Nelson for the most part taking off-balance shots and being sloppy ball-handlers.

“I don't think we were prepared for the level they were ready to play," said Vince Carter, one of the few players in white with pulse throughout the contest. "They were ready to go from the jump, and we weren't on their level from the beginning." Orlando is 41-22 ATS revenging a same season loss.

It’s not a good thing when the best and smartest player on the floor for your team is J.J. Redick. While the former Duke guard has made himself a useful NBA player off the bench, he can’t be one of two players (Carter the other) that understands what his team needs.

The Magic too readily let Boston set up its half court defense. When Nelson had the ball a good portion the game, he did too much yo-yo dribbling and the offense was stagnant.

With Redick, he would get the ball into Howard’s hands early in the shot clock and give the big man options, he would than move to give Dwight as reasonable outlet and would either dribble drive to the basket for a good shot or find another open shooter. The Magic are 23-11 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread this year.

"That was a wake-up call we really needed, in my opinion," said Carter. "They're relentless, they're aggressive, they do a great job of contesting, especially in the paint, and it took us a while to figure it out, but when we did we played a lot better."

The question about Boston has been are they too old and are they wise because of their experience? The answer presently is the latter. Ray Allen shot only 34 percent against the Magic in last year’s playoffs and they tried to employ the same defensive strategy on him again, pressuring him on the perimeter to take contested shots. Allen foiled those tactics, by beating Matt Barnes, Mickael Pietrus and later Redick off the dribble for layups or short jumps shots in totaling his game high 25 points.

The green-clad C’s are up to 38-23 ATS as road underdogs the past three years and Paul Pierce is starting to show he might still have something left in his legs with superior all-around game line that looked this way - 22 points, nine rebounds and five assists.

“It was a defensive game, and we like those. That was fine with us," said Boston coach Doc Rivers.

Orlando opens Game 2 as seven-point favorites to even the series, with total of 189. The Magic are 31-12 ATS after playing a game as a home favorite and 17-6 UNDER after one or more losses. Boston has won and covered four in a row and is 29-16 ATS in road games after successfully covering the spread in two or more consecutive contests. The Celtics are 11-2 UNDER after allowing 35 points or less in the first half last outing.

The second game in the series has an 8:30 Eastern start on ESPN.

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Baseball Series Wagering - Mets at Phillies

The New York Mets are doing EVERYTHING right. New York has flown to the top of East Division standings on the strength of seven straight wins. The Mets pitching staff has been imperious, allowing 13 runs in this stretch, which includes hanging all zeros on two occasions. After a slow start, New York’s offense is averaging five runs per game and manager Jerry Manuel hasn’t made a miscue, as his team completed 9-1 homestand, its best since September of 1988.

The Mets (13-9, +3.6 units) take their act on the road to a Philadelphia, who has ruled the NL East for the last few years. The Phillies ( 12-9, -0.8) are back home after 4-5 road trip and has misfiring offense that has averaged 3.3 runs per contest the last two weeks. “We’ll take the positives away and go home,” right fielder Jayson Werth said. “We’ve got a lot of baseball left to play so we’ve got to keep doing what we’re doing.”

The Mets are third in baseball in runs permitted at 3.3 per contest and start Jon Niese (0-1, 3.68 ERA) who has received limited run support (total of 10) in his four starts. Niese has loose body with easy motion, but leaves too many pitches in the hitting zone, accounting for 30 hits in 22 innings. Against good pitching clubs, Philly has feasted (5.3 RPG) with 68-36 record vs. NL teams allowing 4.3 or less runs a game over the last three seasons.

The Phils counter with Kyle Kendrick (0-0, 7.71) in the series opener whose most notable trait this season is inconsistency. "The first month of the season hasn't been very good [for me]," said Kendrick. "I've been pretty erratic. ... I've had some good spots and some bad ones. I'll just have to keep working on it." Kendrick and the Phillies are 20-3 OVER after a win, with New York 16-42 in road games vs. clubs who strand 7.5 or more runners on base a contest.

Philadelphia is a -145 money line favorite at Sportsbook.com with total Ov10.5. This is expected to be Kendrick’s last start with Joe Blanton possibly activated from disabled list this weekend from injury. Kendrick is 2-1 with a 2.63 ERA in five starts against the Mets.

Game 1 Edge: New York

Also coming off the DL is closer Brad Lidge, who has been an adventure since 2008 when he converted all 48 saves. Last year he led the big leagues with 11 blown saves and has contributed to his team’s 55.6 percent save percentage in 2010. New York is 9-1 against bullpens that blows 38 percent or more of their save opportunities this season, but first they have to hit well enough against Roy Halladay (4-1, 1.80) to get that far.

Halladay proved he isn’t “Iron Man”, conceding 10 hits and five runs in seven innings at San Francisco Monday, suffering his first loss of the season. This will be Halladay’s first taste of this NL East rivalry. The Phillies have lost eight of last 10 Saturday’s encounters.

The Metropolitans will start one of the hottest pitchers in the National League in Mike Pelphrey (4-0, 0.69). The tall right-hander has not allowed a run in 24 innings thanks to darting fastball and new cutter, which he has spotted precisely. Pelphrey is a 4-2 record and 4.82 ERA in nine starts against Philadelphia; however has 7.17 ERA at Citizens Bank Park. Though he only gives up a home run once every 13.6 innings, Chase Utley has tagged four times. New York is 2-6 as visitors with Pelphrey the starter.

This is part of FOX’s Saturday afternoon MLB coverage.

Game 2 Edge: Philadelphia

Ryan Howard broke the longest homerless drought of his career - a span of 65 at-bats - this past Wednesday and will take his rips against Johan Santana (3-1, 2.08). The lefthander’s fastball isn’t as what it was when he was in Minnesota (down about three MPH according to radar guns), nonetheless Santana has become more resourceful in blending other pitches and hitting different spots to keep hitters off-balance, while still maintaining his out-pitch, the dastardly changeup. To date, lefty batters are at the Mendoza line (.200) and right-hand hitters are at .232 against his pitches.

Ageless Jamie Moyer (2-2, 5.25) could be a father to some of his teammates at 47 years old. Though most guys his age that played the game are pitching coaches somewhere, Moyer continue to defy the odds, with left-handers swingers batting .214 against him. Look for New York to load up with players in the right side of the batter’s box, as they see Moyer’s soft tosses much better and are hitting .306 against him.

This will be the ESPN Sunday Night contest.

Game 3 Edge: New York

Professional bettor, sometimes writer and fulltime smart-aleck Red Wydley provided this week’s series pick.

“The Mets aren’t as good as they’re playing and the Phillies are better than they’ve played. The first game sets the tone, since any reasonable bettor is not going to bet against Halladay or Santana unless they are hoping for a long shot like Homeboykris at the Derby (50-1).

New York lost 12 of 18 to Philadelphia last year and has the momentum to turn the tables. The sample is small but the Phillies are 1-3 against lefties to begin the season, batting .221 and if Niese keeps the ball in the park, the Mets can win the first game. Kendrick had yet another chance to be more than a reliever and blew it with more lousy command (9 W’s and K’s) and dishing out more hits than the Jonas brothers.

I’ll bet the Mets winning streak reaches eight and they win the series and maintain first place lead, for now.”

Series odds: New York +130, Philadelphia -160

3Daily Winners Pick: New York

2010 Record – 2-1

Tuesday's bids earned for Big Dance

A trio of invites will be doled out on Tuesday evening for three more conference championships. All three winners are guaranteed spots, however those on the bubble have a rooting interesting in Butler winning, since a Wright State upset in the Horizon League means one fewer spot for them, with the Bulldogs already assured of being invited to the party. Here are the three wagering previews.

Horizon League Championship 9:00E ESPN

Regular season champion Butler (27-4, 12-19 ATS) was dumped in last year Horizon championship game by Cleveland State and went on to lose to LSU in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament. The Bulldogs are focused on not seeing history repeat itself.

Butler has yet to lose in league play with 19-0 record (7-12 ATS) and wants to close the deal. “It’s a little bit of unfinished business - you feel like that when you get all that way and then you don’t finish the deal,” Bulldogs forward Matt Howard said. “It’s the same thing this year. We’re focused, we want to win. We don’t feel comfortable with where we are.” The Bulldogs have won 19 in a row, but are 7-14 ATS after two or more consecutive wins this season.

Wright State (20-11, 11-15-3 ATS) ended up being the second place team in the Horizon with 12-6 regular season mark. The Blue Raiders demolished Detroit 69-50 in their only game in this tournament. Wright State has a strong backcourt with Vaughn Duggins and Todd Brown averaging over 27 points per game, however they have lost six straight to Butler (2-4 ATS).
Butler is a seven-point favorite at Hinkle Fieldhouse according to Bookmaker.com and they are 14-0 SU (5-9 ATS) in their own building this season. Wright State is 3-11 ATS in road lined games this season; however they are 9-0 ATS in all tournament games over the last two seasons.

Sun Belt Championship 7:00E ESPN2

A number of conference tournaments have gone according to form and the Sun Belt is another with the top two seeds matching up. Troy (20-11, 13-14-1 ATS) is the No.1 seed and played like it last night winning 54-48, being a surprising underdog five-point underdog to No. 4 Western Kentucky. The Trojans have four players averaging double digits led by Brandon Hazzard’s 16.6 points per game. Troy averages 75.5 points a contest and is 5-0-1 ATS in last six outings.

North Texas (23-8, 16-7-1 ATS) can also change the numbers on the scoreboard quickly, totaling 74.5 PPG and they have four players of their own that average 10 or more points a contest. The Mean Green are 14-6 ATS against conference foes and are 11-6 and 9-5-1 ATS away from Denton.

North Texas won and covered at Troy 75-72 as 5.5-point underdogs back in January, however the teams have split four games the last couple of years. Both squads have winning spread records at neutral site locations, with the Mean Green exceptional at 17-5 ATS and oddsmakers have this going to the wire at a Pick.

Summit League Championship 9:00E ESPN2

The third championship conflict of the night also features a 1 vs. 2 matchup. Regular season champ Oakland (25-8, 5-8 ATS) rolls into the title game on a 10-game winning streak, having won and covered both Summit tourney games. The Golden Grizzlies have four different players that are capable scorers, each scoring 10 or more points, however their best player is center Keith Benson, averaging 17.3 PPG and 10.3 rebounds. Guard Johnathon Jones hands out 6.4 assists per game, while averaging over 12 PPG. Oakland is 12-7 SU away from home.

No.2 IUPUI (24-9, 8-6 ATS) has three individuals that score as well as any trio in the country. Robert Glenn, Alex Young and Leroy Nobles average 51.3 points a contest, with each providing a different skill that limits what opposing teams can do to shutdown at least one of them off. The Jaguars have a six game winning streak themselves and are 13-7 SU on the road.

These teams split a pair of games in 2010 and Oakland holds the all-time edge 19-14. Oakland made the tournament in 2005 and has lost twice in the Summit championship game, including last year. IUPUI won the tournament in 2003 and has also lost two times in the league title tilt. The opening number on this matchup is a Pick.

Four Conference titles on the line Monday night

Tonight, the soon to be assembled field of 65 for the NCAA Tournament will add four more teams with automatic bids, as four conferences will play their championship games in televised tilts. While some of these teams don’t register immediately for the common fan, the sharp sports bettor has a vast knowledge of all eight competing teams and will want to take notes of the winner of each championship and determine if they any chance of pulling a first round upset, if so designated.

West Coast Championship 9:00E ESPN

The most recognizable squad playing tonight is Gonzaga (26-5, 15-10-2 ATS). The Bulldogs are going to the Big Dance regardless of the outcome this evening and are making their 12 consecutive appearance in the WCC championship, attempting to knock down their 10th title in that span. Gonzaga has three very good players, all with NBA-type ability. Matt Bouldin and Duke’s Jon Scheyer are the most complete guards in the country, able to score or set up teammate for basket seemingly at will.

“We come into this every year and want to win it,” said Bouldin, the conference player of the year. “We want to be playing our best game going into the NCAA tournament. Winning this thing is everything.”

Running mate Steve Gray also has all-around skills in the backcourt and the player that helped put Gonzaga back in the Top 25 despite heavy personnel losses is freshman Elias Harris, who has 25.0 points and 8.5 rebounds in two wins over St. Mary’s. Gonzaga has covered eight straight against teams with winning record.

The Gaels (25-5) work is not done; with most knowledgeable experts with how the field is chosen believing St. Mary’s has to win to be in. If left up to sports bettors, the Gaels would already be in with their ultra-profitable 19-9-1 ATS record. However their wins are largely unimpressive and two of their losses have to Gonzaga by scores of 7 and 19, failing to cover either time. St. Mary’s knows center Omar Samhan will deliver, averaging 26.0 points and 11.5 rebounds, however points from the backcourt is paramount and getting Ben Allen in scoring mode. The Gaels are 18-0 SU when the Aussie reaches double figures and he’s averaged just 7.5 points in two outings.

Gonzaga is the betting choice at DiamondSportsbook.com, favored by 3.5-points with total of 146. Like usual, it will be difficult to bet against the Zags, as favorites are 59-30 ATS in this tourney since 1998, including 4-2 ATS this year. St. Mary’s needs prayers, since they are 0-8 ATS as neutral site underdogs.

Colonial Athletic Championship 7:00E ESPN

The CAA went more according to form than expected with regular season champion Old Dominion (25-8, 12-16-1 ATS) facing William and Mary (22-9, 16-10-1 ATS). The top-seeded Monarchs almost didn’t make this destination, forced to double overtime by Virginia Commonwealth yesterday, escaping 73-69 as two point favorites. Gerald Lee’s 26 points and Ben Finney’s huge three-point with 67 seconds left in the second overtime was the deciding edge. ODU has covered six of last eight as chalk.

William and Mary is the fifth seed and has had two close calls, narrowly knocking off James Madison in first game and squeaking by Northeastern 47-45 on Sunday as five point underdogs. The Tribe is 12-6 and 11-6 ATS away from home, but has lost both meetings to ODU. William and Mary is seeking first ever NCAA bid and will have to shoot well and block-out on the boards, since they lack the athleticism to go up and down with Old Dominion. They are 16-5 ATS as underdogs.

The Monarchs are favored by nine-points and the favorite has won this event nine straight times with 6-2-1 ATS record. Before believing Old Dominion is automatic, consider their 3-13 ATS record at neutral sites.

MAAC Championship 7:00E ESPN2

A few of the lower seeds pulled off upsets in the early rounds, but once the semi-finals began, the cream rose to the top. Siena (26-6, 16-12-2 ATS) was once again the league champion and takes on the club that finished right behind them in the standings, Fairfield (22-9, 14-11 ATS). The Saints will enjoy a decided advantage playing on their home floor at Times Union Center, where they are 14-0 (5-6-1 ATS) this season. Siena is making their fourth straight trip to the title games and has won each of the last two years. Seniors Edwin Ubiles and Alex Franklin are the bell-cows for the Saints who are 7-3 ATS facing a club with a winning record.

Fairfield showed the oddsmakers they deserved more respect, taking down Niagara 69-63 as 1.5-point underdogs yesterday, in spite of being higher seed. The Stags offense is spearheaded by Derek Needham and Anthony Johnson and they will have to come up big since Fairfield has lost twice to Siena this campaign. The Stags did cover the number once in their matchups and is 9-4 ATS on the road this season.

Fairfield is catching eight points, with total of 138 and underdogs of 4.5 or more points are 5-43 and 19-28-1 ATS in this tourney. The road team is 8-1 ATS in previous nine tries.

Southern Championship 9:00E ESPN2

There will be a new champion in the Southern Conference with the departure of Stephen Curry from Davidson. It seem fitting it should end this way as division kings Wofford (25-8, 15-11-2 ATS) and Appalachian State (22-11, 17-8 ATS) do battle. This is Wofford’s first ever appearance in the championship game and they come in riding a 12-game winning streak (5-5-2 ATS). Noah Dahlman leads the Terriers at 17 points per game and if reserve Terry Martin can drain 17 points off the bench like he did in the semis, Wofford has a real opportunity to cover the four-point favorite role they have been given.

Appalachian State is out to win their first SoCon crown since 2000. The Mountaineers are paced by leading scorer Donald Sims and they might need a similar eruption from Kelly Brand, who scored a career-high 37 points last evening against the College of Charleston, converting five of six three-point shots.

Appalachian State is on a real spread roll with 10-1 ATS mark in last 11 and is 104 ATS away from home.

Hoyas faltering at the finish

When Georgetown (19-8, 12-11 ATS) is at their best, it can literally beat any team in the country. When the mental aspect is off-kilter, unsightly performances are the norm rather than an aberration, similar to what happened at home in loss to Notre Dame 78-64, their third loss in four games.

Though this subject has been beaten to death here and other places, the lack of spark off the bench has never helped ignite the Hoyas out of lethargic play or for other reasons. Against the Irish, leading scorer Austin Freeman was battling the flu and scored a season-low five points, with no help in sight. Georgetown better bring the energy to Morgantown or they tumble to 11-26 ATS against Big East foes the last two campaigns.

It’s not easy what to make of West Virginia (22-6, 11-16 ATS), being similar to other clubs coach Bob Huggins had at Cincinnati. With the available talent, an Elite 8 showing or better is possible, but when Mountaineer players are clanging hoists off the rim, a second round NCAA Tournament upset appears just as likely. Though the Big East is rugged enough, Georgetown is the right opponent to test West Virginia, since they are 8-2 ATS this season off a spread loss.

The Mountaineers off their come from behind home win over Cincinnati 74-68 is 33-13 ATS on their own floor off a home triumph and is a 5.5-point favorite over Georgetown with a total of 138 at DiamondSportsbook.com. Georgetown’s lack of scoring in last outing had them falling below the oddsmakers number and they are only 4-19 ATS after one or more Under’s over the last two seasons. The Hoyas are 21-9 UNDER after a loss by 10 points or more and West Virginia is 14-3 UNDER at home after a win by six points or less.

This final Big Monday, Big East matchup begins at 7:00 Eastern and has West Virginia 6-0 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two or more games this season, winning by 17 points per contest.

Light'em up on a Friday

Had a few extra minutes to get this up and after yesterday’s 2-1 performance, we now stand at 22-11 in last 33, not too shabby. We’ll start with a NBA totals system at over 81 percent that yields two plays. That is followed by a CBB angle following a team that doesn’t adjust well to opponents that just fire away. The LLC goes for three in a row with Top Free Play. Good Luck

What I read yesterday – Though I’m not a big fan of Bill Simmons of ESPN, I thought this was outstanding article and wonder what your think about it.

Http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/100224

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Play Under on all teams where the total is 200 to 209.5, a marginal winning team (51 to 60 percent), playing a winning team, in February games. This totals system yields two plays involving New Orleans and Toronto. Since 2004-5 season, this system is 44-10, 81.5 percent.

Free Basketball Trend - 2) Manhattan is 2-14 ATS versus teams who attempt 21 or more three-point shots a game over the last three seasons.

Free Basketball Pick -3) The Left Coast Connection consensus play has Atlanta with 7-0 wagering position.

Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right.

Two Big East teams in need of W

After 25 games, the only question remaining for Syracuse was would they be the top seed in the East Region when the NCAA bids come out in just over three weeks? Despite suffering just their second loss of the year this past Sunday, now they might not even be in first place in their conference this upcoming weekend with another defeat. And what about Georgetown, whose as reliable as Toyota these days. College basketball in February, the bettors dream and nightmare all rolled into one.

Maybe the Orangemen (24-2, 15-7 ATS) were due for a flat outing like they suffered at home to Louisville, losing 66-60 as seven-point favorites. Save about seven total minutes, Syracuse players looked like zombies, going through the motions.

They have played similar to this of late with 3-4 ATS mark, winning games in the last five minutes, until they finally got burned. The Orangemen can still play, inside or out and their 2-3 zone is the most active coach Jim Boeheim has had in years. With the tenacity of the Big East, fouls are inevitable and Syracuse has a bench, with Scoop Jardine, Kris Joseph and Mookie Jones in particular making immediate contributions for a team already loaded. The ‘Cuse is 13-5 ATS playing against a team with a winning record this season.

A closer look reveals Wesley Johnson doesn’t appear to be completely healthy from a couple of spills this month (10-35 shooting) and his game has lacked the explosiveness seen earlier. With opponents taking a wait and see attitude with Johnson, they’ve been shadowing Andy Rautins more and his shooting has been off and Syracuse guards have been less inclined to dump the ball down to the big guys in the paint. Add it up and team averaging 80.8 points per game, has scored 72 or less in four of last five.

Coach John Thompson III has tried to develop a bench, with no success. Yes, sophomore guard Jesse Clark continues to improve and Georgetown (18-6, 11-9 ATS) might well become a very treacherous club to play in March with Austin Freeman, Greg Monroe, Chris Wright the principle scorers. Clark would make the Hoyas almost impossible to guard, likely giving them at least three bonafide scorers each contest with a fourth possible almost any time.

The conundrum arises when two of guys are off their game, who does Thompson turn to. Of course he’s going to say his players know they have to play heavy minutes and it’s not a big deal. What are his options? Admit he could be a little less stern and have fewer players transfer or fess up his recruiting efforts haven’t been as good as other top level programs, he lives in Washington D.C. for goodness sake, why be completely honest when hardly anyone else in town is. Georgetown is 9-24 ATS at home after playing consecutive games as favorite.

Though the Hoyas haven’t won three in a row since Jan. 3, they haven’t lost two in a row either and are 5-0 and 4-1 ATS off a loss, returning home after being upset by Rutgers 71-68 as 10.5-point favorites. In fact, G-Town is sensational 8-0 SU after failing to cover with 6-1 ATS record.

Bookmaker.com has the Hoyas as two-point favorites for this Big East battle and Georgetown is 9-22 ATS in last 31 conference clashes and Syracuse 9-0 and 8-1 ATS away from the Carrier Dome this season.

These are two universities that helped make the Big East Conference nationally known in basketball and they have played oodles of memorable contests. The Jan. 25 meeting was noteworthy for its unusualness. The Hoyas opened up a 14-0 lead and slattern away the good fortune, being outscored 73-41 from that point forward.

This is part of ESPN2 Thursday Showcase, with the SU winner 14-2 ATS since 2000 in the regular season.

NBA Road Teams as Hot as Brooklyn Decker

While Phoenix is known as a great vacation spot other than the summer time and Utah is known for, well, being Utah, both basketball teams are heating up in what should be another scintillating run for eight playoff spots in the Western Conference. Both teams are in action tonight, on the road, seeking to keep the momentum building.

Jazz hitting all the right notes

The Jazz (33-19, 31-18-3 ATS) opened the second part of their schedule with a road win last night in Houston 104-95 and they will have three more games away from home on this trip. Utah has won 10 of 11 (8-2-1 ATS) and 14 of last 16 (11-2-3 ATS). Never regarded as superior visiting club, the Jazz are attempting to win their fifth consecutive road game for the first time in two years when they visit New Orleans (28-25, 26-27 ATS).

The Hornets are adjusting to life without superstar guard Chris Paul, who had surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his left knee and is out a minimum of three more weeks. New Orleans, after losing three in a row, won two of last three before the break, covering all of them thanks to hot shooting, which hid defensive flaws. The Hornets are 9-1 ATS after three straight games allowing a shooting percentage of 47 percent or higher over the last two seasons.

Utah is playing outstanding team basketball and is 30-13 ATS after a game with 30 or more assists, which raised their record to 13-3 ATS in the last two February’s. This leads to the Jazz as 3.5-point favorite at DiamondSportsbook.com, with total of 201.5. New Orleans has won the only meeting between these teams this season in Utah, yet is 7-17 ATS when the total is 200 to 209.5 over the last two seasons. This encounter starts just after 8:00 Eastern in local markets, with the Hornets 13-3 UNDER as a home underdog.

Farewell Amare?

The Phoenix Suns (32-22, 28-25-1 ATS) have been playing their best basketball since early November, on 6-1 SU and ATS roll off their impressive 109-95 win at Memphis yesterday. This was the second time the Suns have held an opponent under 40 percent shooting in this stretch of games; however the chemistry of this team is expected to be in flux.

Insider reports in Phoenix have contract talks between Amare Stoudemire and the Suns as wide apart as the Grand Canyon; fueling speculation a trade is imminent. Cleveland is still believed the most likely destination, though Miami is still in the mix. Charlotte’s name has been mentioned, however they have nothing the Suns would want or need, particularly since they sit at seventh seed presently, but just a couple of games out of moving up to fourth slot. As far as tonight, Phoenix is 13-5 ATS in road games after scoring 100 points or more five consecutive contests this year.

Dallas (32-21, 21-32 ATS) was lauded for acquiring Caron Butler, Brendan Haywood and DeShawn Stevenson from Washington in a seven-player deal, nonetheless this much upheaval changes team dynamics and it takes at least a little time to sort out players roles. How the Mavericks handle this transitional period will likely decide they playoff positioning.

After losing at Oklahoma City 99-86 on Tuesday, shooting a season 32.3 percent, Dallas now has as many losses as San Antonio (21) and could tumble from third seed to eighth with a losing streak. The Mavericks are 4-7 (2-9 ATS) in last 11 and are 2-12 ATS at home after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season.

Dallas is a 4.5-point home favorite, for reasons unknown. The Mavs are undistinguished 15-9 at American Airlines Center and gut-wrenching (for backers) 5-19 (that’s true) against the spread. The total of 217.5 might be the most important number to consider, since Dallas is 0-10 ATS on home floor versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots a game this campaign. Dallas has flustered Phoenix, winning seven of last eight in Big D (4-3-1 ATS) including four in a row.

This showdown is on ESPN starting at 9 Eastern and the Suns are 8-3 ATS as underdogs of 4.5 or fewer points. The Stoudemire watch continues.

Battle of Big Men in SEC Action

Kentucky’s second ranked basketball team is the tallest in the country and at any time they could play a NBA-sized frontline and often do. Four of their keys players are freshmen and from a purely talent standpoint only Syracuse might have more arguably, with Kansas right behind them. Though the Wildcats have been tripped up just once all season, they have not been to Starksville, where it is not unusual for Mississippi State (18-7, 11-8-1 ATS) to play beyond their ability when a top level team arrives in town.

Mississippi State’s offense may go up and like the stock market, but its defense delivers like UPS. Center Jarvis Varnado is a swatting machine near the bucket and has a real hunger for grabbing rebounds. The Bulldogs have been at the top of the SEC in fewest points allowed (62.6 points per game) nearly the entire season and would be a Top 25 team if coach Rick Stansbury could get reliable point guard play. Whether its regular starter Dee Bost or backups, too many forced plays and poor shot selection have contributed to Mississippi State losing six games by five points or less.

The Bulldogs defeated Auburn in overtime 85-75 in last contest and are 8-1 ATS after a win by 10 points or more this season. They are tied with Arkansas at 6-4 for the SEC West lead and their offense is built around making long bombs. Mississippi State made 11 three’s balls against the Tigers for the win and they are proficient at home shooting the long ball with 39.7 percent marksmanship, converting on 10 of 26 attempts. With a defense that allows 36.8 percent shooting percentage and ability to score in bunches, it’s no wonder Mississippi State is 14-2 ATS against offensive clubs scoring 77 or points a game.

The Wildcats (24-1, 12-11 ATS) might not do everything right to please coach John Calipari, but they are awfully close. This team is dominated by freshmen who can play and they have grown as the season as progressed. That is not only a compliment to the players, but to Coach Cal who has impressed on them the importance of playing defense, holding opponents 37.6 percent shooting, by effectively cutting off the lane area. Though the Bulldogs are good rebounding team with a +4 in margin differential, Kentucky is one of the best in the country at +10. The Wildcats are 26-8 ATS after three straight games outrebounding opponent by six or more.

Kentucky will have to stand-up to three point barrage they will face. “They are going to shoot them whether you are there or not, you just have to make them hard,” Calipari said. “You have to understand what you’re playing against. You can’t fall asleep.” The Wildcats are 3-8 ATS off a spread win, including dropping last five.

Kentucky is three-point favorite at Bookmaker.com, with total of 143. The game features a potential unique matchup of big men, Varnado against DeMarcus Cousins. Varnado leads the SEC and ranks sixth nationally with 11.3 rebounds per game, and he’s second in NCAA history with 519 career blocked shots. Cousins’ has exceptional offensive skills in the paint, is an aggressive defender and can really run the court. “They’re two different kinds of players,” coach Calipari said. “One is going to block shots and be active and be quicker to the ball. The other is just a hard matchup for teams.” Kentucky is 14-5 UNDER after consecutive wins against conference rivals over the last three seasons.

This is the second game on Super Tuesday on ESPN and Mississippi State has won 12 in a row at Humphrey Coliseum since losing home opener (4-3-1 ATS) and they are 10-1 ATS versus teams making 48 percent of their shots since 2007-08 season. Big Blue has won four of last six in Starksville and is 17-8 ATS off a home win. Because the Bulldogs are not great at guard, John Wall could be the difference.

Keep in mind, the team with the higher three-point shooting percentage is 4-1 ATS.

Backyard Brawl - Part 2

In ESPN’s endless pursuit to attract viewers 24/7, an extremely rare Big East Friday night affair is on tap. Two rivals with long history of hatred collide for second time in nine days, this time in Pittsburgh. Off home loss to Villanova 82-75 as 5.5-point, West Virginia opens two game road trip, facing the pumped-up Panthers.

For just the fifth time in 180 meetings and the second in a row, West Virginia and Pittsburgh meet as ranked teams. The great aspect about these two teams facing off is the overused expression “these two teams really don’t like is each other” is 100 percent accurate.

The fan incident that occurred in Morgantown, with things being thrown on the floor and Pittsburgh assistant coach being hit in the face with a coin, will only serve to heighten the tension as the Peterson Center, since West Virginia punished 70-51 on Feb. 3.

The fifth-ranked Mountaineers (19-4, 9-13 ATS) are led by forward Da’Sean Butler, whose been carrying the load. Butler continues to move up in every important school hoops record and his support group has playing back to early season level. Though Pittsburgh’s roster isn’t setup the same as Villanova, expect them to use some of the defensive elements the Wildcats sprung on West Virginia, like the triangle and two, which limited Butler to 2 for 12 shooting. Coach Bob Huggins crew has room for improvement and is 7-0 ATS versus teams averaging 53 or less shot a game.

No. 25 Pittsburgh’s offense tends to plod along, needing concerted effort from everyone. This was shown when the Panthers (18-6, 11-8-2 ATS) lost four of five and averaged 60.4 points per game a few weeks ago. Coach Jamie Dixon has preached to his team about picking up the tempo to find easier shots. The Panthers have, scoring 160 points combined in last two wins. This approach has also worked at the defensive end, where they have held last two opponents below 37 percent shooting and Pitt is 6-0 ATS in home games having won two of last three games the last two seasons.

This becomes important since Pittsburgh has been victimized by some Big East’s top scorers, not having an answer. The Panthers players have been slow in making proper adjustments if someone from the opposing team gets hot, either not creating enough on-ball pressure or making poor rotations. West Virginia has a few different players that can hot, thus making correct evaluation is tantamount for club that is 15-6 ATS at home after playing a game as favorite.

The intensity will be off the charts since it is a Friday night, with a 9:00 Eastern start (giving Pitt students time to fuel up) and hated rival in town off a loss. Pittsburgh is a two-point home underdog with total of 126.5 and is 13-5 ATS on their home floor against a team with a winning record. West Virginia expects a tough environment and coach Huggins will stress this is not the time to let one upset loss turn into two. However, the Mountaineers are 1-10 ATS and 7-0 UNDER after a combined score of 155 points or more.

Pittsburgh is 8-1 and 5-3-1 ATS in West Virginia’s last nine visits and 6-0 OVER revenging a road loss.