The Day After

Officially took a 1-1 day on Super Bowl Sunday and we’ll search for better results the day after. Sort of a slow day on Monday, thus the Best System around happens to be on the NHL at 32-6. The Top Trend and Free Pick have a decided view point, see what you think. Good Luck

What I’m thinking today- Congratulations to the New Orleans Saints for winning the first ever Super Bowl and the city’s first ever championship. The most striking aspect of the game was Sean Payton’s ability to be himself. Since becoming a head coach, he’s always been a risk taker and it worked for him again in Miami.

Going for the fourth down and not making it near the end of the second quarter and still being able to come away with three points to get the score to 10-6. The onside kick was a decisive play, that just as easily could have gone the other way (imagine the outcry had the Colts gotten the ball and score to take the lead to 17-6). Finally, the challenge that was reversed to give New Orleans a touchdown lead, which brought into question how the rule actually reads. Three decisions that could just as easily worked against the Saints, but if you are destined to win a Super Bowl, those thinks go your way.

Kudos to Drew Brees, 29 for 32 over final three quarters, as New Orleans literally took what Indianapolis gave them, with eight different receivers reading the Colts zone and running to area and coming back to ball for pitch and catch completions. This is the same Brees San Diego didn’t believe had the ability to win a championship with. The Chargers were probably right, it would have never happened in San Diego.

Gregg Williams’ defense was burned for 10 quick points and switched from 3-4 to 3-3-5, which created more exotic looks and made it tougher for Peyton Manning to be consistent. This defense shuffle ultimately set up the game’s winning Pick Six for the Saints.

The Dwight Freeney injury was a big deal since he was unable to use spin move and the Saints seldom had to double him, particularly in the final 30 minutes after his ankle stiffened up. In a world where instant coffee isn’t fast enough, Peyton Manning went from one of the all-time greats before the game to 9-9 in the post-season immediately after its conclusion by the talking heads.

Early reports are this might be the most watched Super Bowl ever and one of the most wagered on. Because so many books had exposure to the New Orleans on the money line, they either will show a slight loss or profit when everything is tabulated.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Hockey System -1) Play on any team against the money line like Phoenix, off a blowout loss by three goals or more to a division rival against opponent off consecutive road losses by two goals or more. The pucks system is 32-6, 84.2 percent.

Free Basketball Trends - 2) Fairfield is 0-8 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 75 or more points over the last two years.

Free Basketball Pick -3) The LCC is solidly behind West Virginia to cover tonight with betting members 11-0 in their favor.

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Super Bowl Sunday

Iowa State made three 3’s in the final 80 seconds I believe it was, preventing 3-0 day. The Best System follows one of the hottest teams in the Big East and it’s not Syracuse, in a system that is 81 percent. Sal has his top Super Bowl bet and today’s trends are more informational than anything. Plus, I share my SB pick and top prop wagers. Good Luck and enjoy the game and day.

What I’m doing today- I like the Colts to win the game, 34-23, but have decided to have a little fun and bets the Saints with the points and have wagered equal value on Indy on the money line, thus hoping for them to win and not cover.

Here are my favorite prop bets today.

First Quarter –Under 13 points
Largest lead of the game (16.5) Under
Colts rushing yards (95.5) Under
Manning completions (25.5) Over
Reggie Wayne – completions (5.5) Over
Dallas Clark receiving yards (69.5) Over

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Play On road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like South Florida off an upset win as an underdog of 10 or more, in February games. The Bulls also get back their second leading scorer for a system that is 34-8 ATS, 81 percent.

Free Football Trends - 2) Not really trends per se, but interesting. When Dallas Clark catches a touchdown pass Indianapolis is 19-1 SU the last three years. The last three quarterbacks to complete 70 or more percent of their passes during the regular season went on to win a Super Bowl, can you say Drew Brees.

Free Football Pick -3) Sal of the Left Coast Connection bet the Colts on the money line.

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What are the Betting Possibilities for Super Bowl XLIV

The day has arrived, oh sure there will be a great deal of chatter, heart-warming stories and a blast from the past (which includes The Who), looking at the history of the game itself still to come before kickoff of No. 44, however for the most part, it is window dressing to prepare for party you are hosting or attending. The biggest question on every bettors mind besides the $10 prop bet on the coin toss is who wins and covers? For your reading pleasure, here are the definitive answers to those questions.

Indianapolis wins and covers IF Peyton Manning has time to throw the ball. Manning’s work ethic and attention to detail is well documented and given time, will pick apart any defense. Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark were quiet in AFC Championship game, as New York had the best shutdown corner in the NFL in Darrelle Revis and game-planned to take away Clark, forcing Manning to look elsewhere, which he expertly did. Jabari Greer and Tracy Porter are two good corners, just not in the same area code as Revis. With DC Gregg Williams expected to blitz heavily (though don’t be surprised if they rush three and have eight in coverage more than believed with all the posturing), Manning will look to hot receiver and deliver.

The Colts don’t have to run a great deal, just meet their 23 attempts per game, to give New Orleans something to look at. As long as Indianapolis averages 3.7 or more per carry, that keeps them on balance for all down and distance situations.

Defensively, the Colts have to play their game. That means rushing Drew Brees to make one read and throw the ball, not allowing him time to survey the field and pick out a receiver for a bigger play. Indianapolis has to be stout in the middle, as this is where the Saints prefer to run. That would mean the names Gary Brackett and Melvin Bullitt are spoken frequently.

Indianapolis wins, but does not cover IF the Saints cover a few different aspects. Look for New Orleans to use various packages that include five and six defense backs, depending on down and distance. Coach Williams will entrust the underrated Greer can at least prevent Wayne from having big game and will use a corner to cover Clark, to nullify his speed and hope he can get underneath with safety help over the top. DT Sedrick Ellis has to be dynamic to shut down Colts running game to three or less yards a pop (something the Saints have seldom done) and be the key guy in creating pressure into Manning’s face up the gut.

A big factor will be the health of Dwight Freeney. He is Indy’s one true difference maker on defense and if he is at 50 percent or less or can’t go much beyond the second quarter, a big edge goes to Brees and offense, since they won’t need to double Freeney, putting another receiver out into the pattern or used as safety valve. The Indianapolis corners are beatable and given time, Brees could have big day passing.

New Orleans is money line play IF they are the more physical team. That starts up front on offense and carries over to front seven on defense. The Saints can create a push with the trio of center Jonathan Goodwin and guards Jahri Evans and Carl Nicks. If this threesome starts punching holes in the Colts middle and Brackett is making tackles five yards down field, head coach Sean Payton will be smiling and working his play sheet feverishly. Pierre Thomas is punishing downhill runner and Reggie Bush has been more physical, still having big play potential. A running game leaves Brees with countless possibilities in the passing game, short and long and if head coach Jim Caldwell wants to dial up blitzes, no problem for Brees to go highly effective screen game. The Saints will not be discouraged if they fall behind, as they have had a number of come from behind victories.

The Saints defense is maligned and justifiably so, ranking 25th during the regular season and being ripped by Minnesota for 475 yards in NFC title tilt. However, ask Brett Favre and Kurt Warner how much they enjoyed being hit by New Orleans blitzers, enough to where both will likely retire having faced them in last game ever. (OK, overstating the point but a great trivia question in future years) The beauty of a one game finale is coach Williams defense has less pressure, as what their real mission is to give up fewer points than what their team’s offense scores and who cares if Manning passes for 500 yards, as long as they win. As has been the case all year, the defense has to be opportunistic and create turnovers, likely at least three. New Orleans has forced 46 takeaways this season in 18 games and will have a few defensive wrinkles Manning has not seen and has to hope they can keep the Colts in from of them. If this plan is completed, Who Dat will mean Super Bowl champions.

Which way does the total go? Most experts are figuring a shootout with the two premier quarterbacks this season; each is well-armed with a myriad of weapons and defenses that have as many questions as answers. Nerves and the feeling out process plays a big role in the first quarter, as 10 of the last 11 Super Bowls have seen 10 or fewer points in the opening 15 minutes, with seven of those being 3-0 or no score. Typically, once the players and coaches have made adjustments, the offenses start to sizzle. Given the circumstances and how these offenses can perform, points in the final 45 minutes should add up quickly.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Indianapolis as five-point favorite with total of 56.5. Enjoy the game.

Is Pointspread for Super Bowl XLIV?

Any coach past or present will tell you the game of football is about two things, blocking and tackling. While that is absolutely true in its simplest form, Super Bowl XLIV is completely different from its past with the possible exception of just a handful of contests for the Lombardi Trophy. Start with the total of this Roman numeral confrontation. The total of 56.5 is the highest ever, surpassing the Giants and New England figure of 54 points two years ago. This number could well come down by game time this Sunday; nevertheless it stands a very good chance of being the largest total ever.

Why would this be, the NFL rules are geared toward offenses to score points. The two best quarterbacks this season are facing off in the Super Bowl and each organization has drafted in a manner to assure their pigskin passers have the necessary weapons to maximize their abilities and put pressure on defenses. This season, Indianapolis has averaged 38 passes per game and New Orleans averaged 34 passes per contest. For those old enough to remember, Super Bowl XII had the unbeaten Miami Dolphins as surprisingly one-point underdogs to George Allen’s “Over the hill gang” Washington Redskins. In one of the duller Super Bowl’s, the Dolphins completed the still one and only undefeated season, winning 14-7. In the contest, Hall of Fame quarterback Bob Griese was 8 for 11 passing, for all of 88 yards. Figure Peyton Manning and Drew Brees to have the attempts and yardage surpassed that Griese threw for on that day sometime relatively early in the second quarter.

After the Colts solved the Jets defense in winning the AFC Championship, most educated oddsmakers were thinking Indianapolis as three-point favorite against the winner of the NFC contest. However, since New Orleans was dominated statistically in their matchup by Minnesota, most thought 3.5 or four points would draw relatively divided action. With roughly 15-20 percent of the dollars wagered on the side of the Super Bowl by this past Sunday, the vast majority of the action had been on Indy, moving them to -5.5 points , but the Dwight Freeney news shoved to number back down to -4.5 or 5. In breaking down the two teams, is the number accurate?

Peyton Manning vs New Orleans pass defense

On paper this looks like the biggest mismatch since Conan O’Brien taking on NBC. Manning has arguably been the best quarterback in football the last eight years, except when Tom Brady had a better New England club. The Colts have averaged 283 yards passing against teams that allowed 218, that’s almost a 30 percent difference vs. any defense they have taken on this year. Manning makes uncommon sight adjustments to blitzes and gets rid of the ball quickly. New Orleans on the other hand can be riddled by opposing teams via the pass. Take away games this season in which the Saints faced teams who preferred to run like Carolina, Detroit, Buffalo, Miami and the Jets, and the New Orleans secondary surrendered 277.6 yards in the 12 other contests or roughly what the Colts totaled all season. Granted, some the yardage allowed was after New Orleans had built big leads in several early games, but there were a number of late season contests in which they were also torched.

Nobody in football makes better in-game adjustments than Manning and his offensive coordinator Tom Moore and nobody this season did a better job in stopping opposing teams by forcing turnovers than the Saints. Defensive coordinator Greg Williams is on record as saying how they attacked Brett Favre is similar to how they want to get after Manning. The Jets had Darrelle Revis to at least take away Reggie Wayne and they did a good job in limiting Dallas Clark. It does not appear Manning will face those same obstacles against Saints secondary.

Spread Differential – Indianapolis -7

Drew Brees vs Indianapolis pass defense

Brees might not have All-Pro type receivers like Manning has in Wayne and Clark; however he has a stable full any Kentucky thoroughbred barn would be proud of. No team in professional football had a more diverse passing attack than New Orleans. The Saints had seven different players catch 35 balls or more during the regular season. Coach Sean Payton has set up offense very much like a basketball team that has exceptional depth and has the skill to score points. Only Manning has the ability to scan the field as quickly to find an open receiver as Brees, who also has keen understanding of taking what the offense gives as well as wanting to dictate the tempo to keep the defense guessing. The Colts are better equipped to limit or contain the New Orleans passing game. Bookend defensive ends Freeney and Robert Mathis can bring a heap of trouble off the edges. Freeney in particular is going to demand a double team, unless his troubled ankle proves otherwise, as normal backup tackle Jermon Bushrod is not equipped to make this a solo project. Mathis’ edge over right tackle Jon Stinchcomb isn’t as definitive; just the same the Colts DE is the better player. Antoine Beathea is an emerging star at safety for the Colts, with the rest of the secondary somewhat dependant on what happens up front.

Spread Differential – New Orleans -3

Indianapolis running game vs. New Orleans front seven

For two teams in the Super Bowl, this is one area that is about as unusual as you will find. The Colts running game is reminiscent of Bill Walsh’s and Joe Montana’s first winning Super Bowl team from the 1982 season. The 49ers were a pure passing team and ran the ball just to give the defense something to preoccupy from time to time. The Indianapolis front office had not been impressed with Joseph Addai since they won the Super Bowl in 2006 season and drafted Donald Brown from Connecticut. Addai doesn’t hit the edges as well on the stretch plays, working better between the B-gaps and making cuts. Indy posts a laughable 3.5 yards per carry against teams that permitted 4.1. The offense line seldom gets a chance to go out and drive block, however does appear less potent in this aspect of the game from the Super Bowl team from three years ago. Beyond Sedrick Ellis, the Saints defense front absorbs more punishment than it creates. New Orleans gives up 4.6 yards per carry, since their linebackers lack extensive speed to quickly fill gaps. It would seem Indianapolis could do business here, but has shown no inclination to commit to the run, rushing over 100 yards twice on last 12 contests. Expect the Colts to be satisfied carrying the ball their usual 23 times and leave it to their MVP to close the deal.

Spread Differential – Even

New Orleans running game vs Indianapolis front seven

Besides turnovers, if the Who Dats are going to upset the Colts, this is where it has to come from. Guards Carl Nicks, Jahri Evans and center Jonathan Goodwin must have special day opening up holes for Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush. Saints coach Payton needs to show restraint here and get physical upfront with the Colts. Gouging the Indianapolis defense for four to five yards a pop opens up tight end Jeremy Shockey and slot receiver Robert Meacham in the passing game. Payton may try the screen game, however few have had successful against linebackers Clint Session, Gary Brackett and safety Beathea, who can all run and are sure tacklers. Instead, as part of the running game, they should include trips (three receivers) to the short side of the field, with Bush standing behind them and sending him into motion to wide side of the field, hopefully drawing linebacker. This gets Bush in the open field for essentially a screen pass or comeback slant route underneath with blockers, more or less a run play in Saints offense.

Spread Differential – New Orleans -1

Special Teams

Reggie Bush gives the Saints a home run hitter in returning punts, however the way to stop him is what Minnesota did, have the punter sacrifice a few yards to increase kick coverage and get right in his grill upon the catch. Indianapolis continues to spend little time in this area and is strictly run of the mill. Where the Colts have edge is at place-kicker. Matt Stover came in when Adam Vinateri was injured. The 42-year old Stover will be the oldest player ever participate in the Super Bowl and has 20 years experience, including being the Ravens kicker during the 2001 Super Bowl campaign. Stover’s range is limited to about 45-yards, especially outdoors and has made 80 percent (20 of 25) of field goals in his postseason career. Kicker Garrett Hartley is young enough (23) to conceivably be Stover’s son. Hartley has made 24 of 26 field goals in his two years, but the pressure is all together different on the game’s biggest stage. Plus, Hartley has kicked in a dome the last two seasons and realistically is untested, though his game winner over Minnesota was impressive.

Spread Differential – Indianapolis -1

Coaching

It would seem these two coaches couldn’t be any more different with each facing unprecedented scrutiny for the first time. Jim Caldwell, to the chagrin of his team gave up 14-0 season and a chance for perfection to be in this position and it worked. Caldwell’s strength is in his beliefs and defensive. He altered the mechanics of the Colts defense, still playing a lot of Cover 2, but blitzed twice as much as his predecessor Tony Dungy. With young players at corner due to injury, he followed the Colts’ ideologies of players are expected to step up and perform. Low key leader who trusts assistants and his team.

Sean Payton’s arrival into the NFL showed a fertile offensive mind who couldn’t devise enough trick plays and use them quickly enough. Like many great offensive teams, the coach and quarterback become one on various levels and Payton trusted Brees from the beginning. Payton took some lumps the last couple of seasons, which has brought about a new found maturity, giving his offense a chance to succeed on almost every play and toned down the risk taking. As opposed to Caldwell, he embraced the notion of a perfect season when his team was 13-0. He makes no bones about playing to his strength (offense) and turned the defense over this season to Gregg Williams. His biggest task this game is not letting his emotions affect his play calling.

Spread Differential -None

Intangibles

There have been a number of teams that have won their first Super Bowl without having been involved in this maniacal environment, but having the experience is certainly a plus. Teams’ playing in this contest for the first time against experienced foe are desultory 6-11 ATS. Though players say they understand, sometimes its months later in reflection they realize they were satisfied to make the Big Game as opposed to truly desiring to win it. Payton and Brees have the heart of an assassin, thus their preparation and desire is predicated on going home champions. The city of New Orleans, with all that has happened once Hurricane Katrina made land, feels like it playing with house money and welcomes the idea of their football team playing for the city’s first championship, instead of craving it. The team had better listen to their coach and field general.

Though it seems Manning has been around forever, it’s still kind of hard to believe he’s 33 years old and is facing the possibility of having diminishing skills. He admits to sometimes barely getting out to make handoff on stretch plays and unlike Brett Favre, doesn’t spend much time thinking about his place in history in the NFL, he’s more consumed with winning and letting others determine where he belongs.

The Indianapolis team that was at this same location in 2007 was probably the worst of the four previous (2003-06) Colts playoff teams. That club found a hot rookie running back in Addai and the offensive line got into a bull-dozing mode and they plowed their way to championship. That experience gives the Colts an edge knowing what to expect and what level of performance is necessary. Teams favored by three to six points in this truly American game are 8-2 ATS.

Because the New Orleans defense is decidedly inferior, they have to continue to force turnovers. The oddsmakers are telling us Indy is your winner 31-25, based on spread and total. The Saints need to force no less than three turnovers and convert those into a minimum of 14 points, since the offense would be expected to generate 14 to 17 points on their own.

With Manning and Brees rightfully garnering the lion’s share of attention, four Colts youngsters could have direct impact on outcome. Receivers Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie played like seasoned vets against the blitzing Jets, as each was primary target thanks to Rex Ryan’s defensive scheme and they passed the test amazingly well. The New Orleans secondary will have far different coverages, yet their ability to “come thru” will be no less important.

Corners Jerraud Powers and Jacob Lacey have given Colts fans a few anxious moments on occasion, but have played beyond reasonable expectations. They can study film from morning till night, but undoubtedly they will be faced with things they haven’t seen before against the Saints and every New Orleans receiver is big with good speed. If they think their quarterback gets rid of the ball in a hurry, wait until they see Brees. Their play under pressure will define how many points the Saints total.

Spread Differential –Indianapolis -3

Bottom Line - Having the best quarterback in the game who doesn’t make many mistakes, a better defense and better than half the roster having Super Bowl experience leads to figure below.

Cumulative Spread Differential – Indianapolis -7

New Methodology for Betting NFL Win Totals

This time of year, football sports bettors are putting together their thoughts about how certain teams might perform in the upcoming NFL season. They are picking up magazines, reading thru a variety of there favorite websites, all intended to collect information for the season ahead. One aspect looked at profoundly for the sports bettor this time of year is futures wagers. These wagers involve betting on team’s total wins, winning the division, conference and the Super Bowl. Here, we will focus on team win totals and a different way of looking at trying to find value.

For those that have read any of my previous articles, you know I’m big on score differentials in almost every sport. Baseball tends to be the easiest to make sense of these numbers, because of the number of games played and runs (points) being scored one at a time. I recently wrote the Cincinnati Reds might have second half problems based on runs scored and allowed and that the Cleveland Indians should not be forgotten because they still have a potent lineup with descent peripheral numbers and they have won six of last 10 despite being out of pennant contention.

While I have followed the same numbers in football, I haven’t always been able to determine a way to view them, until now.

What I’m looking for is can last year’s points scored and allowed results lead to winning wagers on win totals? Football is completely different because of roster changes at key positions, schedules being significantly different from one year to the next and injuries often time being even more important with so few games played.

Using the same method I borrowed from Bill James from his Baseball Abstract days, I went through and devised a methodology to determine accurate win percentages based on points scored and given up.

I’ll use the defending Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers as the example. The Steelers scored 347 points during the regular season and begrudgingly conceded 223. Take both numbers and square them.

347 x 347 =120409
223 x 223 = 49729

Add the two numbers together and divide the points scored into the total to achieve percentage.

120409 divided by 170138 = .707

What I found about doing this for football as compared to baseball is you have to add .050 for teams with 10 or more wins and subtract .050 for teams that won six or less games. If a team has won seven, eight or nine contests, take the number at face value.

Thus for Pittsburgh, take the .707 percentage, add .050 and new total is .757. Last year, during the regular season, coach Mike Tomlin’s squad was 12-4, with win percentage of .750.

Let’s look back at past teams for proof this should work. The 2007 Detroit Lions were 7-9, as were the Chicago Bears. The Lions scored 346 points and allowed 444, while the Bears totaled 334 and surrendered 348. Calculating the numbers, Detroit should have won 6.03 games and Chicago 7.6. The conclusion is the Lions probably overachieved and were set up to do worse, which they did with flying colors, in completing first 0-16 season. The Bears played about as expected given their numbers.

With only 16 games in the regular season, any difference of one or greater is noteworthy.

Another example is Jacksonville in 2006, which finished 8-8, scoring 371 points and giving up 274, a positive difference of 97. Based on the figures, the Jaguars should have won 10.3 games, not eight and they went on to 11-5 record and made the AFC Conference semi-finals in 2007.

What teams meet the criteria for success or failure in 2009? The San Diego Chargers deserved credit for coming back and winning AFC West, though Denver shared equal blame in failing to win. The Chargers garnered 439 points, while permitting 347. This means the Bolts should have won 9.8 games last season, not finishing 8-8. Sportsbook.com has them listed as Ov9.5 wins for the upcoming campaign, which is reasonable wager given the players coming back and change of direction to Phillip Rivers team.

The Green Bay Packers were 6-10, through no fault of Aaron Rodgers, who played beyond most expectations. The Pack was 419 and 380 in points scored and allowed. Using this method of interpretation, Green Bay should have won almost eight games (7.9) and could be poised to surprise in 2009 and surpass the Un9 number posted on them.

Three NFL teams could be poised to fall in 2009. The Indianapolis Colts have made a coaching change as Tony Dungy retired, which means change and the defense will see the biggest alteration. New head coach Jim Caldwell may see a few growing pains, as last year’s 12-4 club projected out at 10.6 victories.

Miami found lightening in a bottle on the way to 11-5 season, after one win the prior season. The Dolphins only had a point differential of +28, which extrapolated out totals 9.4 wins.

Finally, the aforementioned Denver Broncos lost a three game lead with three games to play to blow the division title with unfortunate 8-8 record. That led to the firing of Mike Shanahan and new coach Josh McDaniels poorly handled the Jay Cutler situation, leaving Denver without a franchise-type quarterback and with Kyle Orton. The Broncos -78 point differential was most similar to Seattle (-98) who finished 4-12. Denver’s numbers projected to 6.4 wins and they are listed as Un7 for upcoming season.

I’m not suggesting these plays are rock solid; take them to the bank action. In the time allotted for research completed, this came to make sense with verifiable proof these numbers don’t lie. If you liked any of these teams to begin with, just one more reason to place a wager.

One last thing, if you choose to do some searching of your own, forget about the Tennessee Titans. The expression “all rules don’t apply to everyone” perfectly fits Tennessee with Jeff Fisher as coach. His teams consistently overachieve and they are the newer version of “Just win baby”.

NFL Schedule Thoughts and Info

If you own a business or are in the marketing department of your work place, if you have any extra cash to play with (unlikely I understand), you might want to consider hiring somebody who has worked for the National Football League. Late Tuesday, the NFL released it schedule and by the way the NFL pages on various websites were flooded with information and people commenting, plus the way radio talk shows were hit with calls and reactions, you would have thought E’s “The Girls Next Door” were going to have an episode without clothing.

Make no mistake, it is fun and exciting to look over all the various teams and whom they will play and take a gander at all the prime time matchups. It is however imperative to keep things in perspective, since what is written and understood today will be far different later in the season.

How different you ask, let’s take a trip down memory lane, about 365 days ago. When last year’s schedule came out, Pittsburgh’s was the most difficult. In analyzing their slate, there did not appear to be one game among the 16 they would have breather. For the most part that was true, with Cincinnati and Cleveland being the only teams that were worse than expected. Yet despite the arduous slate, the Steelers almost always found a way to win and ended up winning another Super Bowl.

After pulling off an undefeated regular season, luck fell the way of New England; at least it appeared so, with the Patriots having the easiest schedule. No matter who New England was about to play, everything changed when Tom Brady went down to injury in the opening minutes. After romping thru the AFC East for years, an aging defense and back-up quarterback were nailed twice in division contests in Foxboro, which one could easily reason why Bill Belichick’s team failed to make the playoffs.

Nevertheless, it is fun to speculate what could and might happen since reality will take over starting September 10.

Because of the musical chairs nature of the NFL schedule, formulated by how a team finishes and predetermined out-of-conference opponents, any team that draws a challenging slate one year is not guaranteed to have the easiest the following and vise-versa. To prove there is a higher power, even above the NFL (really there is) the football gods and others brought balance and order to various divisions.

In 2008, the NFC South and AFC East had the easiest schedules to navigate. Five of the eight teams took advantage of their good fortune and improved their record from the previous season. The Patriots could not possibly improve on 16-0 perfection and Tampa Bay and Buffalo ended up the same record as the previous year.

This season the anvil falls. The teams with the eight hardest schedules based on last year’s results, are from the NFC South and AFC East. Miami catches the brunt of the punishment, facing teams that were 152-104, 59.4 percent. Besides the annual confrontations within the division, the Dolphins have the loaded AFC South and the NFC South. Seven of those eight teams were .500 or better and if that isn’t enough piling on, the other two tilts come in Weeks 2 and 3, a Monday night with Indianapolis and short week to make west coast trip to San Diego. Miami will face the third most difficult slate in seven years.

Next is the Carolina Panthers, who awoken last season, being more injury free and captured the NFC South. This year, Carolina takes on teams that were 151-104-1 (59.2 percent). The Panthers change the languishing AFC West for the East in non-conference play and comes out on the short end of surrendering the NFC North for the significantly tougher East. The two extra games are a December Sunday night game against Minnesota and a trip to the desert to take on the Super Bowl experienced Arizona Cardinals, who bounced them out of the postseason. Jake Delhomme or somebody better be able to pass, since the December sked doesn’t lend itself to huge running lanes, facing the Bucs, Patriots, Vikings and Giants in order.

The defending Super Bowl champion Steelers go from the most toilsome, to one of the easiest 16-game schedules, coming in at 29th. In the end, it likely won’t be this simple for Pittsburgh as they will take everybody’s best shot, particularly on the road. Ben Roethlisberger and company gladly give away the NFC East for the NFC North (who doesn’t want to play Detroit) and the AFC West as whole doesn’t look like a group ready for prime time football.

The teams with the three most halcyon appointments later this year all reside in the NFC North. Chicago, Minnesota and Green Bay are thought to be geared towards improvement, though the Lions shouldn’t be the “welcome” mat they were last season. The Bears have a substantial start having to play at Green Bay and hosting Pittsburgh. After that the annual two-pack with Detroit, along with Seattle, Cleveland, Cincinnati and St. Louis, Da Bears should come out of that mix of contests no worse than 5-1, if Jay Cutler is the final piece to Chicago’s puzzle.

Moving on, questions are raised about the importance of trying to determine what schedules mean before a single game is played. One area to dig into is how Super Bowl champions perform the next season. In breaking down the last seven Lombardi trophy winners, there schedule of opponents winning percentage turned out be pretty accurate, after the season, as compared to before the year started. The largest gap was the 2003 Patriots who had the eighth toughest schedule coming in and exited with the 22nd hardest leaving. The difference was 52.7 percent compared to 48.4 percent. For Pittsburgh backers and those seeking an edge, only two of the prior six Super Bowl champions have posted a winning spread record the year after winning the title.

2007 N.Y. Giants 12-4 12-4 ATS
2006 Indianapolis 12-4 8-8 ATS
2005 Pittsburgh 8-8 7-9 ATS
2004 New England 10-6 8-8 ATS
2003 New England 14-2 11-3-2 ATS
2002 Tampa Bay 7-9 6-9-1 ATS

Facing the supposed hardest 16 games does not guarantee failure for betting purposes. Though Miami looks like they will have a full plate, the last dozen teams that went into the year with the most strenuous slate, was 94-90-8 against the spread.

A few sportsbooks will offer props on teams to make the playoffs. If you can find one that lists any of the teams that have the hardest schedule, should you place wager for or against? It would not be wise to book a hotel in South Florida for a Dolphins postseason party, as only four of the last 12 teams that played trying agenda made the playoffs.

Teams that have had the easiest program like Chicago, have only made the playoffs once of the last eight squads trying to work through what was thought to be easier schedule. Only the 2003 Seattle Seahawks at 10-6, made the NFL playoffs. This is a sorry grouping, with 55-73 record and 59-67-2 ATS mark.

A few observations………….

The Atlanta Falcons have a three-game homestand starting in late November and chances are they will need it, after playing four of the previous five in places like Dallas, New Orleans, Carolina and New York (Giants).

It will be traveling time for the G-Men and Seattle this upcoming season. After opening at home against Washington, New York travels to the Cowboys new ball yard and also visits Tampa Bay and Kansas City in consecutive weeks. The Giants catch a bit of break, with the Bucs and Chiefs with new coaching staffs still sorting things out early in the year. The Seahawks sojourn starts the third Sunday in November, which takes then to Arizona, Minnesota and St. Louis, at least no three time zone games.

Do you ever wonder if the Dallas players sometimes wonder what it would be like to be normal? In 2009, they have six specific games that are unique telecasts, not played at 1 of 4:15 Eastern. If you’re good enough it probably doesn’t matter, yet having a constantly disruptive schedule can’t add much stability.

Miami has four prime time games; does this look and smell like Cleveland of last year all over again?

Bill Belichick and his team put the “England” in New England, when they travel to London to face Tampa Bay in late October.

After a fair schedule to open the season, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers will be tested having to take on Baltimore, Chicago and Pittsburgh in weeks 13-15.

The NFL is not too impressed with Tampa Bay this season, after just missing the playoffs last and being division champs the previous year, every game starts at 1 or just after 4 Eastern.

Remember how poorly West Coast teams performed in Eastern Time Zone last year, well because of schedule changes, there is only six such games the first nine weeks of the season.

Geared up for Thursday Wagering Action

I want to apologize for not posting Mike’s pick yesterday, I just realized it, and he was on Villanova. I’m right in the middle of doing a lot of writing and research for the Super Bowl and keeping up regular duties and just forgot. I won’t count that as a win, because no way to prove it, thus a 0-2 Hump Day. Hopefully I can deliver better winners today and have a Top Trend that is also in my writeup about tonight huge Celtics and Magic clash. The Best System is 83.9 percent in college basketball and involves one rather unknown team and another that is and should be unknown. I’ve already received Mike’s Best Bet and it is posted. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON road favorites of 10 or more points like Weber State who are an average offensive team (67-74 points per game), against a horrible offensive team like Sacramento State that averages 58.6 PPG, after allowing 55 points or less. Motivation is the only unknown for Weber State taking on a 1-18 team; however the system itself has enjoyed exceptional results at 26-5 ATS, 83.9 percent since Bryant Gumbel left the Today Show. (1997)

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Orlando Magic are 22-3 ATS revenging a same season loss vs opponent over the last two seasons.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Mike of the Left Coast Connection continues to thrive in college basketball betting and has the Washington Huskies as his top selection.

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