Looking Ahead in the Rearview Mirror

Here’s the deal, if you bet for or against the Carolina Panthers and lose, it’s your fault, since you’ve been warned. Jake Delhomme has a stranglehold on this franchise and his remarkably inconsistent play has bettors improving Rogaine sales, pulling their hair out.

After Delhomme continued last year’s playoff meltdown by throwing seven interceptions in first three games, all Carolina losses, coach John Fox said the he was his quarterback (since he didn’t have another on the roster that was any better). The Panthers offense live and running backs put a band-aid on the problem by winning three of next four games, and Delhomme actually went three games without a pick.

After last week’s loss to the Jets, it’s clear the “bad” Jake is back. He threw four absolutely lame interceptions against the Jets in 17-6 loss as 3.5-point underdogs. He threw more passes off his back foot against the Flyboys secondary; he actually wore out two heels on his right shoe in 34 pass attempts. In his last two games, Jake is 33-78 for 357 yards and has two TD’s and five picks. His quarterback ratings for those two contests have been 60.3 and 12.7. As stated, you been warned.

If you wondered how 6-5 Jacksonville could possibly attain a winning record, you have plenty of company. The Jaguars are the only team in the NFL with a positive record that has allowed more points than they have scored and by a rather large margin (202-255). Don’t expect them to be around come playoff time.

The Arizona and Tennessee contest ended being the betting game of the week. The Titans had largely opened as one-point home favorites and it drifted up to two points by Saturday. Just as the first NFL games were kicking off Sunday, word started filtering out that Kurt Warner was not going to play. That led to a rush of Tennessee money pouring in with many bettors having the Titans as -3 or those who came at game time at -3.5. As we know, Vince Young threw a touchdown on last play of the game and those holding Cardinals tickets lost for the most part, while many Titans backers were hung at -3.5, while those that held -3 or +3 got their money back.

Week 12 of the NFL was the first time in five weeks the favorites had a winning spread record (9-7) and for the fourth time in five weeks, the UNDER was the play overall.

Last Friday was the big shopping day known as Black Friday. For college football bettors who prefer favorites, the term took on another meaning as the chalk was 3-8-1 ATS and for the weekend they were 17-31-1 ATS, their worst showing percentage-wise since Week 5 of last season (16-30-1 ATS).

From an entertainment perspective, rivalry week was awesome and more like it used to be several years ago when underdogs were dependable plays when matched against their biggest rival.

Time to call out Pete Carroll as a hypocrite. After engaging and questioning Stanford coach Jim Harbaugh about going for two-points trying to get to a half a hundred against his Trojans, two weeks later USC threw TD bomb in the last minute to score a needless touchdown in 28-7 win over city rival UCLA. What made it all the more unusual is sometimes word gets to coaches about alumni having large wagers on certain games and they wouldn’t mind if the coach scored one more to make sure the donors are happy. That didn’t appear to be the case here since USC opened at -14, but were bet down quickly from there.

Know your Football Numbers-

Winning as a road underdog in the NFL is a big deal this season. This has been a real confidence booster for these clubs since they are 20-10-2 ATS in next game. We’re seeing a modest resurgence of an old favorite in the NFL, playing on teams off exactly three ATS losses. Their record is 11-6 ATS in 2009 and Seattle could be a potential play, but they had a bye week in the mix, which knocks them out.

My pal Steve Makinen wrote an article recently stating some stats are more dependable than others when addressing the NFL and he mentioned yards per point. Since week 4 (what I use as starting point), teams that were in the top 5 for that week and not playing another team in the same group, are respectable 20-15-1 ATS. Those teams in the bottom five after rocky 6-12 ATS start are 13-6 against the spread. Also of interest, when a bottom five team plays a top five team in YPPT, they are 4-3 ATS, having covered last four. Click here to see this week’s teams.

Turnovers are the one aspect college football bettors can’t truly account for. However, this season there has been one area you can at least receive some help. Teams that have committed five or more turnovers are 24-12-1 ATS if they play the following week and squads that force five or more miscues are 28-19-1 ATS if they play the next weekend.

Magical Monday Night

Ended up officially 2-1, though many probably had a push on Tennessee and Arizona. Today we an 88.9 percent NBA system on a losing team that is favored. The Chicago Bulls have yet to cover in a specific angle in a number of tries and red hot Kendall has a Free CBB play. We also check in on how many experts feel about tonight’s big football contest. Good Luck

What I saw yesterday – You cannot bet the Carolina Panthers, period. Yesterday they had an easy opportunity to cover against the New York Jets and Jake Delhomme returned back to early season form. There are option quarterbacks in college football that throw the ball better than he does right now. On Sunday he made Bills backup Ryan Fitzpatrick look like he belongs in the NFL. I honestly don’t know how you bet for or against Carolina with Delhomme the biggest wild card holding back a franchise.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System-1) The Golden State Warriors are off to another dismal start at 5-10 and were lambasted 130-97 by the Los Angeles Lakers in last contest. That could be good news tonight for the league’s third highest scoring team (108.5 PPG), as home clubs scoring 103 or more points a game on the season, off a loss by 10 points or more, with the line at +3 to -3, are 24-3 ATS the last 13 years.

Free Basketball Trend-2) The Chicago Bulls are 0-9 ATS after playing a game as an underdog this season.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Kendall is 11-3 the three days in all his top plays and is on Bowling Green tonight. (LCC members are a divided house, 10 each on the Saints and Patriots and four apiece on the total)

Paul Buck’s Monday Night Magic- Guaranteed

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Carolina at Miami Matchup

For any team with a smashmouth running attack, it stands to reason that a strong offensive line and group of running backs would be key. So it’s easy to see why Carolina and Miami might be in a little trouble when they square off in Week 11. The Panthers lost starting left tackle Jordan Gross to a broken ankle in last week’s 28-19 win over Atlanta, while the status of Dolphins Ronnie Brown now officially listed as done for the season. The Wildcat stud left last week’s 25-23 win over Tampa Bay in the third quarter with an ankle injury, though Ricky Williams more than picked up the slack with 102 yards on 20 carries.

Miami and Carolina have met just three times previously and not in Carolina since 1998. The Dolphins swept all three prior meetings, both SU and ATS, holding the Panthers to just 39 points. The fourth meeting could be the deathblow to the loser’s postseason hopes for 2009.

Both teams are 4-5 SU and ATS after nine games and currently on the outside of the playoff picture looking in. Miami has lost three of its four games on the road this season, but that road has been a treacherous one, as all four opponents have a winning record at this point. Under coach Tony Sparano, the ‘Fins are 0-7 ATS when squaring off vs. NFC foes.

Miami’s defense was picked apart late in last week’s game by rookie Josh Freeman for a pair of touchdowns and were bailed out by quarterback Chad Henne’s game-saving field goal dive that secured the win over the Bucs. The Dolphins arrive in Carolina 7-19-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

Carolina stumbled out of the gate with a 0-3 start but has rebounded with victories in four of the last six, due in large part to much-improved play by veteran quarterback Jake Delhomme. In the first three games he threw two touchdowns with seven interceptions, but coming out of the win over the Falcons has now gone interception-free for three in a row. The rededication to the running game has also helped.

DeAngelo Williams has run for 640 yards and five touchdowns over the last five games, while Jonathan Stewart’s numbers are equally impressive (328 yards, five touchdowns). The loss of Gross for the balance of the season is a big one, but it didn’t hurt the ground attack right off the bat. The two still combined for 174 yards against the Falcons last week.

Carolina is only 2-2 at home with one cover and is 0-5 ATS in November off a division upset as underdog. Bookmaker.com has Carolina as three-point favorites, with total of 42.5. This could be a situational wagering conflict. The Panthers are 15-5 ATS vs. poor passing teams like Miami (30th) averaging 175 or less passing yards a game in the second half of the season. While Miami is 9-23 ATS versus rushing teams like Carolina (3rd) averaging 130 or more rushing yards a game after the midpoint of the season.

This is NFL Network telecast which begins at 8:20 Eastern. With Miami’s defense allowing 25.2 points per game, it should be noted that the Panthers are 41-17 ATS vs. teams allowing 24 or more per outing.

Steve Makinen of StatFox and College and Pro Football Weekly contributed to this article.

Tony Romo needs make good to teammates

Dallas comes off a disappointing last second loss to the Giants in last week’s new stadium opener, and will look to turn it around in a Monday night contest hosting Carolina. The Cowboys fell to 1-1 with the loss, putting more importance on this game with a two-game AFC road swing on deck, after both the Giants and Eagles won on Sunday. Dallas is on a nice run of 28-14 ATS, bouncing back from a game in which they allowed 30 or more points. A 1-2 start, losing their first two games at the new palatial palace in Arlington would be disastrous for the Cowboys.

Hey Carolina, it’s time to wake up! Every Panthers fan is well aware if you go back to distressing playoff loss to Arizona from last season, Carolina has lost seven straight games, if you include the four preseason games. Failure like success is contagious and you can forget what it feels like to win and what it takes, for a squad who has failed to cover last five outings after allowing 350 or more yards in previous contest.

Things change expediently in the NFL and a 0-2 start for a team that won their division a season ago doesn’t count for much, ask Tennessee and Miami how they are feeling right now sitting without a win. The Panthers on the verge of seeing their playoff hopes disappear before their open date, which comes next week. That could be important as Carolina is on a 6-1 ATS stretch in pre-bye week road games.

DiamondSportsbook.com has the Panthers as eight-point road underdogs, with a total of 47.5 and amazingly, underdogs have covered 12 straight pre-bye week games in which Carolina was one of the participants.

Both teams need their quarterbacks to play up to capabilities. Jake Delhomme has five interceptions already this season, with one touchdown pass and Hall of Famer Tony Dorsett’s least favorite Dallas signal caller, Tony Romo, pretty much singlehandedly cost the Cowboys a win last week. In last nine meetings between these teams the underdog is 7-2 ATS.

Carolina covers if two very important things happen. Start with Carolina offensive line giving Delhomme protection. It’s been known for sometime Delhomme is liable to put the ball up for grabs when receiving pressure. His steadiness has waned since the middle of last season. He needs time and has to get the ball in Steve Smith’s hands. The O-Line has to do better than 4.2 yards per carry with backs DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. Dallas is loose in gap protection, which could open up running lanes for the dynamic duo. The Cats are cool 16-5 ATS off a road loss against a division rival.

The other key point is Carolina defensive coaches need to add diversification. The Panthers are not getting any pass rush and are not blitzing to counteract. The defensive line is being wiped out with opponents rushing for 168 yards a game. Find ways to free up linebackers to make tackles and mix it up. Given Romo’s playing style, the Panthers could go to 9-2 ATS following a SU loss if they play looser and attack more.

Dallas covers if they properly execute last week’s game plan. The Cowboys ran for 251 yards against a very good Giants defensive line, which means they should have no problem averaging somewhere between 5.1 yards per carry (Carolina allows) to 7.0 (Dallas’ average YPC). Coach John Fox has seen enough coverage miscues to last half a season in the first two games, even Romo should be able to read and react to what he sees, with his team 8-3 ATS this month. The Cowboys led the NFL in sacks last season, thus far, ZERO. Delhomme will hit open Dallas defenders like they are the primary receiver if under duress. The Cowboys are 17-8-1 ATS off a defeat.

Monday Night System – Play Against any underdog that allowed 24 or more points in their last two games. (26-13-1 ATS)

Steve Makinen of The Platinum Sheet contributed to this article.