A Battle in Boise

The opening bowl game on the Wednesday lineup has two teams in sharp contrast to what is expected later the same evening in a different bowl matchup. Why on earth would any sane person desire to watch Idaho and Bowling Green play football? Well, if you made the time for Temple and UCLA, this has a much larger potential for entertainment value with total listed at 68 points and besides, who doesn’t like a to watch a game on the Smurf Turf?

Idaho’s first winning season since 1999 was a tail of two separate campaigns. The first part of the season has the folks from Moscow going nuts as the Vandals were 6-1 and 7-0 ATS, making bettors unbelievably pleased. When the schedule picked, the defense wore down and Idaho allowed 50 points per game in finishing 1-4 and 0-5 ATS. The passing game was special all season in finishing 12th nationally.

Bowling Green also finished 7-5 SU and ATS during the regular season, having the almost complete opposite year. The Falcons began 1-4 (2-3 ATS) and had a soaring finish with 6-1 and 5-2 ATS close. The Bowling Green pass offense was even better in ranking 8th overall and the defense forced 11 turnovers is 4-0 SU and ATS close of regular season.

Other reasons to watch are some of the players involved. Bowling Green has receiver Freddy Barnes, who is five catches away from setting the NCAA record with 143 receptions in the season. Barring injury, this is the closest thing to a lock in this contest, since Barnes averages over 10 catches a game for a team that is 8-1 ATS away from home after the first month of the season over the last two years.

Idaho doesn’t have a star exactly, just a number of player to keep an eye. Junior quarterback Nathan Enderle has a strong arm and leads a down the field passing game that averaged 9.5 yards per attempt, better than two yards more than what opponents allowed. The Vandals have a trio of running backs and they will be important if Idaho is to win, since the defense can’t stay on the field for long (allow 35.5 PPG) and coach Robb Akey doesn’t want one-dimensional attack. Though Idaho can be expected to be pumped up for rare bowl appearance, they’ve shown an inclination of having a tough time turning negatives around with 3-12 ATS record after two or more consecutive straight up losses the last few years.

Bowling Green has been a streaky bowl team at 4-4, losing first three, winning next four, before being dismantled by Tulsa 63-7 in GMAC Bowl in 2008. The Falcons are 1-5 and 2-4 ATS vs. other postseason participants.

This is Idaho’s second-ever bowl experience as part of the FBS universities. They played in this very game 11 years ago and pulled one the bigger outright upsets in downing Southern Miss 42-35 as 17.5-point dogs. This is first time a MAC squad has played in this bowl and the underdog has covered four of last five.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Bowling Green as a one-point underdog, which is where they started after being a favorite for about two weeks. The Falcons are 6-0 ATS on the road vs. poor passing defenses allowing completion percentage of 58 percent or worse. Presuming the line holds, Idaho is 9-4 ATS as an underdog and 9-2 ATS after surrendering 450 or more yards in next game, though unfamiliar territory with this much time off for a bowl experience.

ESPN will have it live in Boise at 4:30 Eastern and watch guard Idaho guard Mike Iupati, looks like sure-fire NFL player.

3DW Line – Bowling Green by 7

A Tuesday MAC Attack

MAC East Division combatants do business on Tuesday night on a nationally televised cable contest. Neither Bowling Green (3-5 SU& ATS) nor Buffalo (3-5, 4-4 ATS) are going anywhere this season, mired in the lower dwellings of the MAC. This is especially painful for Buffalo coming off a league championship season and bowl game.

The Bulls are team that lives on the edge. Last season half of Buffalo’s 14 games were decided by six points or less and they were 4-3. In 2009, five of their games have come down to seven or less points and they are 2-3. Buffalo’s offense has to be more productive in the red zone. The Bulls are second in the MAC in total offense at 410.9 yards per game, but are a pedestrian eighth in points scored at 23.1. Buffalo needs to put up points and are 12-2 ATS when they score 28 or more points.

The Bulls have a terrific receiving trio in Naaman Roosevelt, the best receiver in school history, along with wideout Brett Hamlin and tight end Jesse Rack. What’s killing Buffalo is -7 turnover margin and a secondary loaded with backups due to injury.

Bowling Green had their two game winning streak snapped by Central Michigan in last outing. The 343 yards passing only netted 10 points, as they finished with 20 net yards rushing, which has been the story of their season. The Falcons do prefer to throw the ball; nonetheless having the worst running game in the country at 61.6 yards per game at 2.3 yards per carry has to be unacceptable.

That places all the pressure on quarterback Tyler Sheehan and receiver Freddie Barnes. Sheehan has completed 65 percent of his passes for 2,677 yards with 15 touchdowns and only five interceptions. Barnes has burst onto the national scene by making 99 receptions and nine touchdowns. Passing teams always have a chance to cover and Bowling Green is 9-2 AT in road games over the last two seasons.

The Falcons defense allows 210.6 yards per game on the ground against teams that only average 145 YPG, making them a porous group. Buffalo’s Ike Nduka has become a solid runner after they lost standout running back James Starks before the year began. Bowling Green is 1-5 SU and ATS this season when they allow a back to run for 100 or more yards.

Bookmaker.com has Buffalo as 3.5-point favorite with total of 53.5. This will be just the second time the Bulls have been a favorite this season and they are 3-4 ATS all-time as MAC home favorites. The Falcons are 4-6 ATS as conference road underdogs since 2001, however 8-1 ATS as visiting dogs over the last three seasons.

ESPN2 has this MAC matchup at 7 Eastern, with the mission for each squad to win remaining last four games and possibly snag a bowl bid with 7-5. Buffalo is 3-1 ATS in four meetings with Bowling Green since joining the league is 1999, with the visitor having covered three in a row.

Let's have a Scintillating Saturday

When we last did this on Thursday, we picked up our third straight 2-1 day. Let’s hope it’s that or more starting with a Top Trend that is 14-0 against and you would NEVER guess the team. The Best System is 28-6 ATS in non-conference action and Sal has what he believes is another winner at 3Daily Winners. Good Luck

What I thought today – I just can’t stand when I’m already to back a certain team all week in football and then I find totally contrary information. I still might play Oregon State, but for a lot less than I was going to. God ^@#*&)@)

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Football System-1) PLAY AGAINST home underdogs of 14.5 or more points like Bowling Green- after a playing a game where 29 total points or less were scored. Since 1999, this system is 28-6, 82.4 percent against the spread.

Free Football Trend -2) This is a crazy trend I never recall seeing, Penn State is is 0-14 ATS vs. defensive teams who give up 12 or less points a game since 1992.

Free Football Pick -3) Sal has hit two straight, he’ll go for a third with UL-Monroe today.

Guaranteed College Football Plays today include --Non-Conference Fraud of the Month and Paul Buck’s Saturday Sweeper

The Platinum Sheet is filled with Winning Information.

Ready for 3-Team Parlay?

It’s Friday, many of you won’t be working a week from today unless you are in retail, on the day after Thanksgiving. While you’re either working today or going to class, maybe, just maybe it’s time to step out of character. Everybody preaches, don’t play parlays, you can’t win, only do straight bets, eat your vegetables and wash behind your ears, blah, blah, blah. Hey, we all need to get stupid every now and again and take a chance, feel the rush of the risk, because maybe, just maybe the results could be cool.

Tonight we have three lousy college football games, which any sane person wouldn’t touch. That’s where the fun begins. I’m throwing out the idea of three team parlay, but not the usual type, one that gives you the best chance to W I N.

Let’s start in Ohio, where the people are leaving certain cities in that state like a bad marriage. A Miami-Ohio and Toledo game used to mean something in the MAC, today is just means two rotten 2-8 teams are playing their next to last game of the season. The Redhawks defense in the last three games, how should I say this delicately, stinks, in allowing over 40 points an outing. Don’t get me wrong, it’s not like Toledo is a juggernaut, losing four in a row. This is not the time to be handing out points like its pumpkin pie, take Toledo on the money with this system that’s around, play against road underdogs on the money line, off 3 straight losses against conference rivals against opponent off 2 consecutive road losses. Miami is the former and the Rockets the latter and the system is 26-3.

In the other game in Ohio, I guess Bowling Green can still win the MAC East if they beat Buffalo who leads by a game. This division is as congested as L.A. traffic, and reminds of the old George Thorogood song “No Particular Place to Go”. What to do here is take the points, as Buffalo is hotter than a basket of fire sauce wings with four straight wins. What makes me excited about the Bulls (excited might be a little too much) is they have rushed at least 216 yards in last three games and B.G. has turned into ground chuck, being run over for 200 yards in four of last five games. Did you know Buffalo is 14-5 ATS as a road dog? Now that makes two of us. Take Buffalo with the points.

On ESPN2, a meaningless WAC game will be televised with Fresno State taking the ride to San Jose State. Pat (blowhard) Hill who talks tough and has a defense that allows 212.7 yards per game on the ground (110th), will be after a winning record for the season with a seventh win, because they are going to get their you know what handed to them at Boise State next week. San Jose State had a really promising start at 5-2 and they fell apart faster then a reunion tour of Right Said Fred (I’m too Sexy). Spartans blogs and websites report regular starting quarterback Kyle Reed will sit and his backups are stiffs. Don’t count me a Fresno State supporter, but I like at system that wins 81 percent of the time (34-8). Play against a home team vs. the money line after allowing 525 or more total yards in their previous game against opponent after out-gaining opponent by 175 or more total yards in their previous game. Play Fresno State on the money line.

With me still, Toledo and Fresno State on the money line and Buffalo with the points. Why do this as opposed to straight spread bets? Your average parlay payout on a 3-teamer is anywhere from 5 or 6 to one. Problem is hitting all three against the number. With relatively low money lines on favored teams and an underdog who is playing swell, we can still secure a 4 to 1 payout or slightly better and not give away points.

It’s your money; I’m not telling you what to do on a Friday other than have good time. But if you have a little fun money, you would just waste doing something else anyways, take a shot at this; it’s better than buying lottery tickets or trying to bet games on ESPN Classic.

Red Wydley drops in occasionally and shares is wisdom (?) with the masses.