Week 15 in the NFL

It’s the last Sunday before Christmas and NFL teams are scurrying like busy shoppers to find that one last game that could put them in the postseason. Philadelphia has climbed atop of the NFC East standings and needs to win out to earn the third seed, while San Francisco didn’t let their playoff dreams die with Monday night upset. Miami is in better position than Tennessee as they prepare to meet, will they still be at the end of the day? Baltimore is expected to put Chicago on the sale rack, yet are the Ravens fully focused with Pittsburgh on deck. Speaking of the defending Super Bowl champions, it’s Jim Mora time (Playoffs?), they just need a victory and they’ll face one of the hottest and most complete teams at the moment in Green Bay who is looking to secure top NFC wild card. What do you make of Cincinnati at San Diego, as the Bengals continue to deal with mounting injuries and yet another death within the organization. Wicked weather up and down the East Coast will also impact games, as totals have in several cases.

San Francisco at Philadelphia 4:15E FOX

In need of a key win to stay atop the NFC East, Philadelphia (9-4, 8-5 ATS) squares off against a team it has had its way with in recent years, the 49ers. Head coach Andy Reid’s team has throttled San Francisco by at least two touchdowns in each of the last three meetings and the offense has scored 40 points per game in those contests. Those routs contribute to a trend of 26-12 ATS mark vs. NFC West foes under Reid. After beating New York Sunday night, Philly has its sights set on the NFC East title, and has two home games slotted before the season finale in Dallas. San Francisco (6-7, 8-3 ATS) has won just once in six road games in ’09, but has been competitive to the tune of 3-1-2 ATS. Dating back a little further in this head-to-head series, road teams own a 7-4 SU and 8-3 ATS edge since 1992.

Keys to the Game-

Philadelphia has won four in a row, covering three times thanks in part to +5 turnover margin in those games. The offense has hardly missed a beat ranking third in points scored (28.6) despite numerous key injuries. For this matchup it’s how the defense performs. The 49ers like to play rough, which the recent shoddy tackling won’t work against Frank Gore and Vernon Davis. The Eagles can’t allow either player to be a big factor. Alex Smith reads the defense better out of the shotgun when passing, this leaves it up to the Philly defense to disguise blitz packages and force Smith to go to second and third options, definitely not his strength. Philadelphia is 10-2 ATS at after allowing 35 points or more last game.

The playoff pulse may be faint for the Niners, but at least they have one. San Francisco stymied Arizona twice this year and must utilize similar gameplan against Eagles. This includes tight bump and run coverage on the outside and pressure on off the edges forcing Donovan McNabb to throw in traffic. Patrick Willis blitzes have to get to McNabb. There will be bad plays, but rollout Smith to avoid pressure and take deep shots, as Davis and Michael Crabtree are proving they can catch the ball in traffic. Keep Gore moving with quick-hitting runs. Little known fact, Monday night winners as road underdogs in next game are 9-2-1 ATS the last four years.

3DW Line – Philadelphia by 7
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Philadelphia -7.5, 41

Miami at Tennessee 1:00E CBS

Miami and Tennessee are in a grouping of teams in the AFC still holding on to wildcard playoff hopes. Unquestionably, the loser of this week’s game is in trouble in that regard. If series history is any indication, that team would be Miami (7-6 SU & ATS), as favorites have swept the previous four contests between these teams while going 3-1 ATS. From a matchup perspective, the Dolphins are up against a treacherous spot with 4-14 ATS record versus excellent rushing teams averaging 150 or more on the ground since 1992. Nevertheless, the Fins are on impressive six-game ATS winning streak in road finales. The Titans (6-6-1 ATS) are 6-7 after beating St. Louis and have won six of their last seven. This is the middle encounter of a three-game homestand for them and they are 12-3 ATS after gaining 375 or more total yards twice in a row.

Keys to the Game-

Miami stuffed Maurice Jones-Drew on the ground last week (59 yards) and the defense will called upon again to contain the NFL’s leading rusher Chris Johnson. It takes all 11 guys to prevent Johnson from hitting big plays. If the Dolphins want to have something to play for in final two home games, they have to clean up road miscues. Miami is fortunate to be 3-4 SU as visitors, as they own -9 turnover margin on the road. The Dolphins are 9-2 ATS in road engagements against AFC opponents the last two seasons and will turn to fullback Lousaka Polite, who has made tremendous impact on third down and on short yardage plays. He’s 13 for 13 on third or fourth and one this year.

Johnson needs 160 yards a game to break Eric Dickerson all-time rushing record. He’s allowed Vince Young to grown as a quarterback, being the necessary threat to balance the offense and be game-changer and back who runs out the clock for Titans. Second year quarterback Chad Henne, like many young QB’s, is not as efficient on the road. A healthy Tennessee secondary had been picking off more passes since ending losing streak, make Henne throw into small windows. Jeff Fisher’s squad is 8-4 ATS after winning by 14 or more points and has to tackle Ricky Williams before he turns the corner or gets into the secondary.

3DW Line – Tennessee by 5
Bookmaker.com Line – Tennessee -5, 43

Chicago at Baltimore 4:15E FOX

Baltimore plays its third straight game vs. a NFC North foe, and so far the results have been mixed, bad on the road, good at home. Fortunately, this week’s contest is in the latter grouping, versus the bumbling Bears, who have lost eight of their last nine games against the spread. The last time Chicago (5-8, 4-9 ATS) visited an AFC team, it was clobbered by Cincinnati 45-10, and in this game they will be looking to negate a trend that finds them 7-25 ATS in December road contests. Baltimore (7-6 SU & ATS) has thrived under John Harbaugh versus bad teams, going 8-0 ATS against those with a losing record, including last week’s walloping of Detroit. That win kept the Ravens’ playoff hopes afloat, but following this home finale, they’ll spend their final two weeks on the road, at Pittsburgh and Oakland.

Keys to the Game-

San Diego and Indianapolis run the ball nearly as bad Chicago, who is dead last in the NFL at 85.7 yards per game. One HUGE difference, they both have prolific passing attacks, the Bears, not so much. For Chicago to pull the upset, they have to create any kind of seam for Matt Forte to run thru since the door has been closed most of the season. Da Bears are 9-21 ATS vs. passing teams with a completion percentage of 61 percent or better in the second half of the season and have to rattle QB Joe Flacco, since the Ravens receivers are average at best. Baltimore averages 4.6 yards per carry (5th), Chicago surrenders 4.4 YPC (20th), which suggests the Bears front seven has to lower this figure to under four to stay competitive.

Because of the end of the season playoff chatter, Baltimore hung a Navy triple option-like 308 yards rushing on Detroit last week. The offensive line made every running play look like a trip to the bowling alley, knocking Lions down with ease in averaging 7.7 yards per carry. The Bears defensive front has been nothing special and they will at least try to simulate similar results. They should give Flacco time to find open receivers in Chicago secondary, with the Ravens 20-8 ATS after rushing for 175 or more yards. Baltimore secondary is not adequate versus most good passing teams, the Bears’ pass catchers sloppy routes and Jay Cutler’s lack of accuracy creates turnover potential for them. Chicago's attitude about arriving late in Baltimore will play a factor in the outcome.

3DW Line – Baltimore by 11
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Baltimore -11, 39

Cincinnati at San Diego 4:05E CBS

Perhaps the biggest game on the Week 15 NFL slate, Cincinnati and San Diego go head-to-head with a possible bye in the first round of the playoffs hanging in the balance. For the Bengals (6-7 ATS), the mere thought of that was highly improbable at the outset of 2009, yet here they are, 9-4 and headed towards the AFC North title. They have been particularly effective as underdogs, sporting 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS. They will need to come up with a truly special effort to upset San Diego though, as the Chargers (7-6 ATS) have won their last eight games to move to 10-3. They have also done very well historically against Cincinnati, compiling a 7-2 SU and ATS record in last nine meetings. Under Norv Turner, the Chargers are now 11-0 SU and 9-2 ATS in December after their win in Dallas.

Keys to the Game –

It has been an unbelievable 2009 for the Bengals. It is hard to fathom their mental state after the death Chris Henry. Helping assistant coach Mike Zimmer overcome the loss of wife is one thing, but this is a teammate. It’s not like Cincinnati has been sailing along either, particularly on offense. Since ringing up 45 on the Bears, Cincy has totaled a mere 16.8 points per game, with almost no pass offense. From scheme perspective, all their AFC North rivals run the same 3-4 defense as San Diego, making preparation simpler. Cincinnati has seen too many third and longs of late and has to do a better job of managing down and distance. The Bengals are 6-3-1 ATS in the second of two road tilts and will have to have monster games from corners Leon Hall and Johnathan Joseph, who are talented enough to limit San Diego receivers.

Though it may sound callous, San Diego has to start fast to make Cincinnati players feel worse than they already do. The Bengals has presented little in the way of passing, thus blitz Carson Palmer repeatedly. Offensively, make them play the whole field, throw short and long, run screens to both sides and mix in running game. The Chargers are a momentum team and are 12-3 ATS after three or more consecutive wins since 2007. Cincinnati ranks second in the NFL in both average number of plays on scoring drives (8.98) and average time of their scoring drives (4:19), making it imperative San Diego doesn’t allow them to dominate the time they possess the pigskin. Watch this closely, as the Bolts have conceded 5.1 yards per carry in last four games.

3DWLine – San Diego by 10.5
Bookmaker.com Line – San Diego -7, 43.5

Green Bay at Pittsburgh 4:15E FOX

Pittsburgh has lost its last five games and, by all rights, seems to have been removed from any playoff consideration. In fact, Green Bay (9-4) can thank schedule makers for giving them the Steelers at the right time. Even still, this is a dangerous spot for the Packers (8-4-1 ATS), who look to hang on to their wildcard position in the NFC playoff standings. This is the second of back-to-back road games for them after the win in Chicago last week and upped their road mark to 20-9 ATS under coach Mike McCarthy. Pittsburgh (6-7, 4-9 ATS) is in the unsightly situation of a defending champion relegated to spoiler for the last three weeks of the season. They are 6-1 SU and ATS in their previous games hosting the NFC. Home teams have gone 3-1 SU and ATS in last four get-togethers between these storied franchises.

Keys to the Game-

Green Bay has never played in Heinz Field, last visiting Pittsburgh 11 years ago. This is not ideal location to get kicker Mason Crosby back on track, nonetheless, unless he stops missing makeable field goals, eventually the Pack will be picked off. Excellent game for Packers to use tight ends, as Steelers will blitz from every direction and try to double wide receivers depending on formation. Utilize Jermichael Finley extensively. With Green Bay looking like NFC wild card club, McCarthy should change up red zone offense to add more traditional sets to increase productively since empty backfield has seen mixed at best results. The Pack’s second rated defense can lead the way since they are 6-0 AT in road games after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in two consecutive contests.

Pittsburgh can only blame themselves for this five-game losing streak. The Steelers have lost to Kansas City, Oakland and Cleveland, who are a combined 6-30 if you take away their wins over Pittsburgh. If Pittsburgh players are to learn one lesson, they found out they couldn’t just “turn it on” when they felt like it and if that same attitude persists, Green Bay will cuff them. This whole Ben Roethlisberger taking sacks is getting old, since the physical beating has to be taking a toll and he needs to get rid the ball and make better reads or the Packers defenders will be all over him as well. It’s been 35 games since Steelers allowed 100-yard rusher, however they have surrendered over 137 yards per game in their last three and take on a hot one-cut back in Ryan Grant. Pitt is 13-1 ATS in home games off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite, does Steelers pride show up?

3DW Line – Green Bay by 1.5
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Pittsburgh -2, 41

Steve Makinen of StatFox contributed to this article.

Arizona looks to fly to division title in San Fran

Arizona makes its second straight primetime appearance when it travels to San Francisco to wrap up the Week 14 slate on Monday night football. The Cardinals advanced to 8-4 after the win over the Vikings, and managed to boost their divisional lead over the 49ers and Seattle to three games with four to go coming into the weekend.

With the number of long winning streaks in the NFL this season, it is easy to lose sight of the fact Arizona (7-4-1 ATS) is a last second loss at Tennessee away from having a five-game winning streak. Kurt Warner came back from concussion last week and was razor sharp in 30-17 win over Minnesota, with his dynamic duo of receivers, Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin, taking turns sharing the spotlight. Boldin did a lot of damage early and late with seven receptions for 98 yards and two scores, while Fitzgerald was the focus more in the middle quarters, having eight pass catches for 143 yards and a touchdown. The Cardinals are 8-1 ATS vs. a division opponent off a SU win.

"It's a middle-of-the-season game and it doesn't have a lot of bearing in the big picture, but it gives you confidence moving forward to think that we can play with anybody," Warner said about Vikings win. "We can play with the big dogs. The key for us is to show up like that every week."

The Monday matchup for Arizona has significance on a couple of levels. They lost the season opener to San Francisco 20-16 at home as 4.5-point favorites and having the chance to win the NFC West in a revenge situation would certainly be sweet. A victory also gives the Cards franchise consecutive division titles, something that has not happened in 34 years, when they were in St. Louis, playing in the old NFC East. In the past, this has been a miserable spot for Arizona, sporting a 2-13 ATS record in division games off SU underdog win, facing a team below .500.

San Francisco (5-7, 7-3-2 ATS) has played well at home in 2009, with a 4-2 SU and ATS mark, and is now 6-2-1 ATS as hosts under coach Mike Singletary.

San Francisco’s inability to pull out close games—five of its losses are by a combined 19 points—and string more than two wins together all season will go down as the biggest reason its lockers will be empty come the first week of January. It suffered four straight defeats following a promising 3-1 start and has alternated wins and losses over the past four weeks. Last week’s 20-17 loss to Seattle was example of letting and opportunity slip away, as quarterback Alex Smith completed 27 of 45 throws for a career-best 310 yards with two touchdowns. The 49ers are 8-2 ATS off a division loss.

A lot of football remains, however, especially if you’re Smith. The first-overall pick of the 2005 draft has four more games to convince the front office and Mike Singletary’s coaching staff he’s their quarterback for next season and beyond. How well Smith plays against Arizona under the Monday night football spotlight could go a long way in determining his fate.

Elevated to starter midway through Week 7, Smith has played relatively well after missing all of last season with an injury and making just seven starts in 2007. He’s thrown at least two touchdown passes in five outings—something he didn’t do at all in 2007 and accomplished just three times while starting all 16 games in ’06. Part of his success can be traced to a supporting cast that includes rookie first-round wideout Michael Crabtree (32 catches, 406 yards, one touchdown in seven games) and former first-round tight end Vernon Davis (63, 801, 10).

However it has come at a price, as Singletary has abandoned the running game and RB Frank Gore looks completely uncomfortable taking handoffs out of the shotgun. The Niners at least are 5-1-1 ATS after losing outright.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Arizona as 3.5-point road favorites, with total of 45. The Cardinals are 6-1 ATS in last seven road games and 6-2 ATS against teams with losing records. San Francisco has covered 15 of last 20 Monday night appearances; however is 0-4 against the number hosting Arizona. That is part of the reason why the visiting team is perfect 8-0 ATS in this series. The Redbirds are 13-4 UNDER as a road favorite of seven points or less.

Arizona covers if Kurt Warner has as much time to throw as he did last week. The Niners like to play tight coverage, but they can had, especially if they have to cover long distances over time. Keep Warner’s jersey clean and he should be able to fleece San Fran secondary. The Cardinals have the best red zone offense in the NFL when it comes to getting in the end zone, converting 66.6 percent of the time. Keep the pressure on the 49ers to match points. When the defensive line is revved up, they can create pressure. Though Smith sees the field better out of the shotgun, keep him in the pocket and make him throw meaningful strikes for 60 minutes.

San Francisco covers if they remember Gore is a member of the offense. No question Smith is more comfortable away from center and makes better reads. Nonetheless, the Niners have lost offensive identity and are throwing the ball around like Mike Martz is still offensive coordinator. The 49ers need balance in offense to play winning football. San Francisco was dismal 1of 13 in third downs in Seattle and are among the poorer teams in the league in that category. That won’t work against the Cardinals. Make Arizona safeties guard Vernon Davis down the field, since they are not great is deeper pass coverage running with receivers.


Monday Night System – Play Against any team that lost against the spread on the road in prior game versus a team that covered the number at home. (18-6 ATS L12Y)

Steve Makinen of Platinum Sheet and College and Pro Football Weekly contributed to this article.

Bears by the Bay for NFL Thursday Night

It’s the first of six consecutive games on the NFL Network package. These games have tended to be fair (as in OK) matchups, with the league not trying to anger the other networks that help keep the coffers nicely stocked with cash. Of course the NFL bosses will throw around money to prevent sports bettors from having legalized gambling, thus what they are really doing is providing one game on their network for the enjoyment of those that can afford the NFL Network for the enjoyment of all their fans, having absolutely nothing to do with sports wagering. (Wink, wink)

The Setup

The first Thursday night game of the NFL season pits two fringe playoff contenders in the NFC against one another. San Francisco (3-5, 5-2-1 ATS) is playing at home and as the small favorite, which could prove important, since favorites are 24-6 ATS on Thursday games going back five seasons. It’s also notable since favorites are on a run of 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in the last seven games between these teams, each time the host club in the role of the chalk. The 49ers are on a four-game losing skid, but have won five of last seven at home. Chicago (4-4 SU&ATS) is on a 25-11 ATS run on the road in November, but just 1-3 SU and ATS on the road this season, being outscored by 10.5 points per game while turning the ball over 13 times. The Bears are not playing well, having lost three of their last four tries.

Why Watch

Mike Singletary is a legend in Chicago, for his fiery play and intensity (those bulging eyes shots are classic) and ended up the Hall of Fame. Now he faces his old team as the coach.

Though it was before Singletary was head coach, a bit of bad blood exists between these teams’ front offices. In 2006, the Bears brought tampering charges against the 49ers for pursuing linebacker Lance Briggs, who was in the midst of a contract dispute with the Bears. The NFL ruled against San Fran, and they were docked a fifth-round pick in the 2008 draft.

This contest features two of the better tight ends on the NFC with Vernon Davis and Greg Olson, the latter coming off three touchdown game.

Which quarterback will throw more game-changing interceptions to drive sport bettor insane? Alex Smith has five picks in basically 2.5 games and Jay Cutler has just what you get at Dunkin Donuts, a dozen.

Why Wager

Do you really care about the NBA yet? Yea didn’t think so. The Bears are 6-0 ATS having lost three out of their last four games over the last three seasons. San Francisco is 8-16 ATS after allowing 28 or more points.

Some might be of the opinion Chicago is more done than the last of the leaves that were just raked up and the Bears are 1-8 ATS after gaining six or more yards play in their previous game. Besides, the Niners are 5-2-1 ATS after an L.

The Line

Bookmaker.com has 49ers by 3 with total of 43.5.

What Happens

The aforementioned Mr. Briggs steps his play up and tries to compensate for crummy secondary by playing the run like a stud and blitzes QB Smith into mistakes. Defensive lineman Tommie Harris finally decides to play football and not look like the second coming of Alonzo Spellman. The Chicago wide receivers are the worst in the NFL and most have no clue how to run deep routes. Throw short and hope they make a move to use exceptional speed.

Of course for every action there is a reaction and San Francisco would be making a huge mistake not keeping Smith in the shotgun as much as possible. He’s obviously more comfortable in it from his college days and reads the field better. Remember the strength of the offense was supposed to be the line, ask Frank Gore what he thinks about that notion with all his one and two yard gains. Block somebody. Excuse the 49ers secondary if they smile a lot facing the Bears wideouts, put any kind of pressure on Cutler and they are covered like blanket.

The Outcome

3DW selects San Fran to cover

NFL Plays and sad commentary

I was a little shaky on yesterday’s prospects being good and 2-2 record for the week proved the point. Today we’ll look to do better, starting with an 8.11 percent NFL system. The Top Trend is in Sunday Night football and don’t forget to look back to Wednesday for NFL Totals Play. Good Luck

What I thought yesterday – I’m having a crummy CFB season betting wise and one game summed it up yesterday. I wonder (if ever) when was the last time an underdog was getting +15.5 points, scored 45 points and still failed to cover. Ironically, it was Idaho who was 7-0 ATS before yesterday.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Football System-1) PLAY ON any team like the Niners that are an average offensive team (18-23 PPG) against an average defensive team (18-23 PPG), after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half. Since 2005 this system is 30-7, 81.1 percent.

Free Football Trend-2) The New York Giants are 15-2 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61 percent or better over the last three seasons.

Free Football Pick -3) Ken of the LCC has hit his top play in the NFL all six weeks and has Dallas at -4.5.

Guaranteed NFL Winners Today!

Week 7 NFL Game Matchups

Their might only be 13 games on the schedule for this week, however, Sunday afternoon five exceptional matchups really standout. This week AFC-NFC conflicts dominate the schedule and four in particular are worth noting. The NFC leads 13-10 SU and Minnesota will put unbeaten record on the line at Pittsburgh. Two upstarts, San Francisco and Houston will try to keep pushing playoff aspirations. Chicago and Cincinnati meet in the Queen City and one team will have consecutive losses at the end of the day. New Orleans is in potential flat spot on the road against rested home underdog Miami and Dallas also returns from a bye week and to face a dangerous Atlanta squad.

Minnesota at Pittsburgh 1:00E FOX

Minnesota (6-0, 4-2 ATS) continues its most difficult stretch of the 2009 season with a trip to what could be the NFL’s toughest environment, Heinz Field in Pittsburgh. The defending champion Steelers (1-5 ATS) are starting to find their groove, having won three straight games to move to 4-2, with 27-14 win over Cleveland. They’ll head into their bye week next, important since underdogs and road teams are 6-1 ATS in the last seven Pittsburgh pre-bye week games. Head coach Mike Tomlin’s team is also just 2-5 ATS in its last seven tries vs. NFC foes and just 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS hosting the Vikings. Still, with a 28-11 ATS record vs. teams with winning percentage of 75 or higher, Pittsburgh has to like its chances. Minnesota will be out for more late game magic vs. the Steelers and is 3-0 SU and ATS on the road.

Keys to the Game-

At 40-years old, Brett Favre has the third highest quarterback rating at this juncture of the season, as the offensive line has done superior work in keeping his jersey clean. This allows Favre to step into his throws and getting attacking defenses. Last week was perfect example as they built 14-0 lead on Baltimore before they knew what hit them. Minnesota has performed poorly in two of last three games in the fourth quarter, being torched on the ground and thru the air. That won’t work against Ben Roethlisberger and the Vikes are 1-10 ATS in road games after allowing seven or more yards a play in their previous game.

The Steelers haven't allowed a 100-yard rusher in 24 consecutive regular season games and keeping Adrian Peterson in tow is tantamount. Favre has hit a number of plays to WR Sidney Rice the last few weeks, those have to be contained. Pittsburgh is 11-2 ATS in home games after gaining 300 or more passing yards and must keep Jered Allen away from Big Ben and keep the pressure on 24th ranked pass defense.

3DWLine – Pittsburgh by 2.5

DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Pittsburgh -6, 46.5

San Francisco at Houston 1:00E FOX

After being off last week, San Francisco coach Mike Singletary faces a challenge of getting his 49ers (3-2, 4-1 ATS) teams to play well, as they were 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in post-bye week games prior to his arrival. Another obstacle figures to be the fact that this will be the 49ers first ever trip to Reliant Stadium. They are still stinging from the 45-10 loss to Atlanta, their first ATS setback of 2009. Overall, they are 5-2-1 ATS on the road under Singletary. Houston (3-3 SU&ATS) has been tough to read this season, alternating wins and losses. This week would be a loss according to that pattern. The Texans boast a 16-11 ATS home record under Gary Kubiak, but just 3-3 ATS hosting NFC foes. In addition to San Francisco’s post-bye team struggles, the OVER has converted in those last 10 games.

Keys to the Game-

With a week off, it’s time for the Niners to be more creative offensively. Lacking a deep threat in the passing game, teams have increasingly crowded the line of scrimmage to stop the run. Michael Crabtree might not all the offense; however he knows how to go deep and fight for the pigskin. San Francisco has the worst third down conversion rate in the league, which means more three and four yard gains on first down are imperative. The 49ers defense found out what a hot quarterback can do against Atlanta and Matt Schaub shifts the ball around to lots of receivers. They have to tighten coverage or they will fall to 5-13 ATS on the road against foe off a SU underdog triumph.

The Houston running game has been ineffectual (30th), nevertheless getting the ball to RB Steve Slaton on screens and wheel-routes in the correct method to exploit slower linebackers. The offensive line will have to allow Schaub time to throw and he has been on target with clean throwing lanes. The defensive line should use this opportunity to get sack-groove back as QB Shaun Hill lacks pocket presence and has been tackled for loss repeatedly. The Texans have covered nine of last 13 tilts.

3DW Line – Houston by 2
Bookmaker.com Line – Houston -3, 44

Chicago at Cincinnati 4:15E FOX

Chicago begins a two-game stint against AFC North foes when it travels to Cincinnati. The Bears (3-2, SU&ATS) haven’t been to the Queen City since recording a 24-0 win back in 2001. Overall, the road team has won three of the last four games, both SU & ATS, between these non-conference foes. The Bears are just 10-12 ATS vs. AFC teams under Lovie Smith, including 5-5 ATS on the road. Cincinnati (4-2, 3-3 ATS) shares the same won-lost record as Pittsburgh for the AFC Central lead and hopes to head into its bye week on a good note. The Bengals off the home loss to Houston in which they yielded 472 yards, are looking for a sixth straight ATS win vs. the NFC, although they are just 2-4-1 ATS as hosts in that role since 2005. Road teams are 6-2 ATS in Cincinnati’s pre-bye week games since 2001.

Keys to the Game-

Chicago should know what to do with former teammate Cedric Benson, as he is one-cut-and-go runner. The Bears defense tackles bottled up Michael Turner last week (30-yards) and need to shoot the gaps to contain Benson. Cincinnati loves to blitz and might need to even more without DE Antwan Odom gone for the season. Though the Bears receiving core is feeble, so is the Bengals 28th rated pass defense. Give Jay Cutler time and Chicago has the upset and Bears move to 10-4 ATS following a spread loss.

When Cincinnati almost lost to Cleveland a couple weeks ago, they were arrogant in kicking the ball to Joshua Cribbs, giving the Browns excellent field position time and again. Coach Marvin Lewis has to be smarter against the Bears return personnel or a loss could entail. Be patient with Benson on the ground. He has shown proclivity for breaking big runs, don’t be discouraged by a series of minimal gains. The Bengals have bounced back after sorry defensive performances and are 6-2 ATS after allowing more than 350 total yards. Create exotic blitz packages to annoy Cutler, who have shown he’s not above making poor throwing decisions.

3DWLine – Chicago by 3
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Cincinnati -1, 42.5

New Orleans at Miami 4:15E FOX

After losing its first three games, Miami won its last two before its bye week to climb back into the AFC East race. The next three weeks will determine whether the Dolphins (2-3 ATS) are capable of staying in the hunt. After this game against the undefeated Saints (5-0 SU&ATS), they face trips to New York and New England, both critical divisional contests. Miami comes in on a 4-8 ATS slide as a home underdog. New Orleans is off the statement win over the Giants and also faces a pair of divisional opponents up next, only at home, starting with Atlanta. The Saints are 6-0 ATS the last two years vs. the AFC, and 17-6 ATS vs. AFC East foes dating back to 1992. They are also 8-1 ATS as road chalk under coach Sean Payton. Miami last hosted the Saints in 1998, and is 2-0 SU & ATS in those meetings.

Keys to the Game –

The New England Patriots of a couple of seasons ago might have been a tremendous story ravaging the NFL in the first part of the season; however this New Orleans offense is no less lethal. Coach Payton’s attacking game plans immediately have opponents on tilt, with Drew Brees the executioner. The Saints are 11-1 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons in no small part because they win the turnover battle. They are +9 in 2009. New Orleans must tame the “wildcat”. Scoring quickly and building lead places more pressure on slower-paced Miami to score more frequently.

The best way to cool Brees is have him on the sidelines. Miami has the NFL’s best running game and averages over 36 carries a game. Use the same tactics that almost ended Indianapolis unbeaten season. With an extra week to work out deficiencies, the Dolphins have to have Joey Porter and Jason Taylor pestering Brees or he will eat up safeties, the weak link of Fins defense. Miami is 4-14 ATS off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog and they better spot TE Jeremy Shockey from the Saints first offensive snap or another loss is forthcoming.

3DWLine – New Orleans by 7
Bookmaker.com Line – New Orleans -6.5, 48

Atlanta at Dallas 4:15E CBS

Dallas may have headed into its bye week with the confidence of a 3-2 team, but the truth is the Cowboys (2-3 ATS) are closer to being 1-4 than they are to being elite outfit. A late interception return versus Carolina and OT win at Kansas City has made the difference. Offensively they have been stellar, gaining an incredible 7.0 yards per play, best in the NFL. However, defensively, they are yielding 5.8 yards per play, and ranked 22nd in total defense. They start a two-game homestand, and they’ll take on another pretty good team offensively, Atlanta, who comes in at 4-1 after beating Chicago. The Falcons (4-1 ATS) begin a stretch of four road games in their next five. They are on a run of 21-9 ATS in October road games. Speaking of visitors, road teams are 6-0 SU & ATS in Dallas’ last six post-bye week contests.

Keys to the Game-

Frequently, teams off a bye are somewhat lethargic playing at home and off a victory. This sets up perfect opportunity to spring no-huddle offense on Dallas, say the second series of the game. Matt Ryan showed he can handle this attack comfortably and the Cowboys are 26th against the pass. Atlanta has improved the last two weeks stopping the run and applying quarterback pressure, but has blown contain and let opposing QB’s scramble for first downs. Keep Romo in the pocket. Once again the secondary is a concern for Falcons, which means pass rush has to work. The Birds are 0-6 ATS after two or more consecutive wins since last year.

The offensive line has to take it Atlanta, building on No.3 rush attack. This keeps Romo from making boneheaded plays. Great efficiency is also needed in the red zone as seven touchdowns in 15 red zone possessions is not good enough. Ryan, the former Boston College quarterback, has not been sacked since the third quarter of the first game against Miami. After lumbering start, Cowboys have 10 sacks in last three contests. Get to Ryan and chances of 6-0 ATS record off a bye improve substantially.

3DWLine – Atlanta by 2
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Dallas -4.5, 47.5

Steve Makinen of StatFox contributed to this article.

Upon further review in the NFL

The difference between a playoff team and one who misses can often be a very thin line. Luck or getting the right breaks can make all the difference. 2008 division champions Tennessee, Carolina and Miami have yet to post a win this season (1-8 ATS) and for all intents and purposes, are very unlikely to make the playoffs. So what happened?

The loss of Albert Haynesworth has affected the Titans in a different way than anticipated. Tennessee hasn’t dramatically been affected by run defense, however with no pass rush up the middle against opposing quarterbacks, the Titans are 29th against the pass. For the most part, Tennessee was better than the unbeaten Jets on Sunday, but two special team’s fumbles deep in their own territory gift-wrapped two touchdowns for New York. (Coach Fisher a strong candidate for "What not to wear" TV show)

Carolina can’t generate a consistent running game (21st), which leaves Jake Delhomme left to win the game, which he does not appear capable of doing. The Panthers felt they had to be quicker on defense and went lighter. Instead of making more plays, opposing teams are pushing them around and Carolina is 29th against the rush.

Miami is returning back to earth after miracle revival from a year ago, following a 1-15 season. The Dolphins still have satisfactory running game, but has been the case, teams decided to no longer respect the Dolphins passing game. Ted Ginn Jr. has shown why most were shocked when Miami drafted him so high. He’s a poor route runner, who lacks the ability to create separation despite tremendous straight-line speed. The Fins averaging a mere 5.0 yards per pass (29th). Maybe Chad Henne can try and stretch the field. The Dolphins have had a difficult schedule to boot, yet it doesn’t appear to lighten up with four AFC East games and New Orleans on the next five outings.

San Francisco isn’t going anywhere and looks very capable of covering a number of spreads. They create a dilemma for oddsmakers also, since they lack explosiveness on offense to warrant exaggerated figures and the defense is more team-oriented than exceptional.

There were fewer reasons to bet on Indianapolis on Sunday in Arizona than to tune in “Lost”. Virtually every perspective was against the Colts, expect for one element, Peyton Manning. Even if you don’t like all his commercials, the guy is a player. He had that look in his eyes, and if you have wagered against Indy when he does, just mark it as a loss. Talent-wise this is not a great Colts team, yet they have a chance to be great because they have Manning.

Any wonder why the Vikings never gave up on Brett Favre. Here’s a dollar to your thousand that two guys named Tarvais and Sage never even attempted the throw Favre made.

Denver would be 3-0 SU and ATS right now if they had Jay Cutler as their quarterback, but guaranteed Chicago wouldn’t be 2-1 if they didn’t have the former Bronco. Greg Olson is above average tight end, but Cutler is throwing to Devin Hester, Earl Bennett and Johnny Knox, who are arguably the worst collection of wideouts in the NFL. Along with an active defensive line, Cutler is the reason for Bears winning record.

Study the numbers

For underdog seekers, it was not a good week in the NFL, with favorites 11-5 ATS. Home underdogs performed poorly for the third straight week at 2-5 ATS and are 5-11 ATS on the season. Take a look pro teams that have won as road or home underdogs, they are 8-3 ATS in the early going the next week.

The favorites were crushed in college football last week, covering 20 of 50 games played. Double digit home favorites in particular were very beatable at 7-14 against the number. In a statistical oddity, the totals have been evenly split each of the last three weeks on the college board.

Line movers were 2-7 ATS in NFL sides and totals in which the number moved 2.5 or more points. The wagering public also was nailed on college sides with 4-10 ATS mark on contests that moved three points or more. However, good fortune continued on college totals with 15-7 week, taking season total record to 54-23, 70.1 percent.