Vikings look to sink Chicago's season

Formally known as the Purple People Eaters, Minnesota captured six straight NFC Central Division titles from 1973-78, appeared in four conference championship games and three Super Bowls. Along with Pittsburgh and the Los Angeles Rams, Minnesota enjoyed four consecutive double-digit win seasons—playing a 14-game schedule—starting in 1973 and was entrenched as one of the league’s elite franchises.

Three decades later, the Vikings have yet to return to the Super Bowl but they took a considerable step last Sunday when Green Bay’s lost in Pittsburgh giving them back-to-back division crowns for the first time since the late ‘70s. Only two current Vikings—Brett Favre and Pat Williams—were alive when it last happened and they’ll try to secure a first-round playoff bye for the first time since 1998.

Speaking of No. 4, he once again made himself the center of attention by refusing to exit last week’s loss to Carolina. Thus heading to the Windy City, Minnesota (11-3, 8-5 ATS) has unintentionally given ESPN a number of storylines heading into its last Monday night telecast.

Though Favre and coach Brad Childress have reportedly kiss and made up, questions have to remain, especially in the Vikings locker room, where players have to wonder who is really in charge. Enough players will back Favre, while others will support the coach. No matter who backs who, Minnesota backers are impassible with their team 5-22 ATS in final road of the regular season.

Favre has been remarkable, no matter what his age, as the Vikings have a had a top 10 offense all season and are fourth in scoring at 28.3 points per game. Minnesota’s outstanding season has in part been because of how they played in division, showcasing a 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS record in NFC North games.

Minnesota got a potential belated Christmas gift, with New Orleans losing a second straight home game, blowing a 17-0 lead to Tampa Bay and losing in overtime 20-17, leaving ajar the door for Minny to be the top-seed in the NFC if they win out and the Saints falter at Carolina next week.

Chicago (4-10 ATS) fans couldn’t have been happier this past off-season, they finally got their franchise quarterback, one problem; he needs to be able to throw the ball to somebody. Jay Cutler has thrown for over 3,100 yards and 19 touchdowns, but been picked off a league-high 25 times. Chicago receivers are arguably the worst in the NFL (good luck trying to find ones that are worse) and the combination of poor route-running and Cutler trying to force throws have sunk Chicago.

The Bears have fallen like the winter temperatures to 5-9 by losing six of its last seven games, including a 36-10 rout at the hands of the Vikings in November. Chicago has become THE play against team having dropped seven in a row against the spread. The Bears are 2-16 ATS this month as underdog versus team that is off SU and ATS loss.

In the previous matchup, Chicago had no answers for Favre, who completed 32 of 48 for 392 yards and three touchdowns. All three of his scoring tosses—one each to rookie Percy Harvin, Chester Taylor and Visanthe Shiancoe—came in the second quarter as the hosts built a 24-7 halftime lead. Cutler threw for 147 yards and a touchdown and was picked off twice and sacked four times.

The Bears have fared well at home in this head-to-head series however, going 7-4 SU and 8-3 ATS dating back to 1998. They are also on a nice 12-3 ATS run when revenging a loss of 14 points or more to an opponent. However, coach on the hot seat Lovie Smith has seen his team at its worst against good teams, 0-7 ATS vs. clubs with a winning record in this campaign.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Minnesota as eight-point road division favorite, with total of 41.5. The Vikings are 4-11 ATS as North Division visiting favorites and is a torpid 2-13 ATS in December as road chalk. The Vikes are 7-0 UNDER off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a road favorite. If Chicago has an ounce of pride, they should play well after another dismal effort, on home turf against rival with playoffs ahead of them. The Bears are 14-6 ATS at Soldier Field after posting 10 or fewer points and are 8-0 UNDER as an underdog this season.

Minnesota covers if they have the kind of game plan that has them jumping all over the Bears early. Get Adrian Peterson wide, play action pass deep and use Shiancoe over the middle. The Vikings running game has produced 62 or fewer yards in two of the last three weeks, this is opportunity to fix things against 25th rated run defense. The defensive front four can dominate the Chicago offensive and keep Cutler’s miscues coming. Above all, Childress has to convince his team to play 60 minutes and finish their work, otherwise they could fall victim like the Saints or almost what happened to Philadelphia on Sunday.

Chicago covers if they can make Favre uncomfortable in the pocket. Over the last few seasons, the former Southern Miss product has not played well outdoors in the cold. After 12 touchdowns and no interceptions in November, Favre has just three TD’s and four picks in the final month of 2009. It’s going to be up to the defense to raise their level of play and force Vikings into mistakes. Chicago talk radio has brought up OC Ron Turner as a big part of offensive issues and Da Bears can’t be too quick to abandon the run, as long as they are within two touchdowns. Cutler is a good play-action passer, don’t leave him without options. Chicago must dominate the special teams to control field position.

Monday Night System – Play On a division team that outgained its opponent in earlier game by more than a 100 total yards. (18-5 ATS, 78.2 percent)

Steve Makinen of StatFox and College and Pro Football Weekly contributed to this article.

NFL Week 12 Previews

Thought this would be a good time for a changeup this week in the NFL. We’ll make a run through the entire Sunday day time slate, paraphrasing what Joe Friday from Dragnet used to say, “Just the facts please”. Take a look at key information on both sides and totals action for Week 12 of the NFL season. Lines courtesy of DiamondSportsbook.com.

INDIANAPOLIS (-3.5, 47.5) at HOUSTON 1:00E CBS

The Texans (5-5, 5-4-1 ATS) come into Sunday’s game vs. Indianapolis as winners of their previous eight games as a home underdog against the spread. In six of those, they won outright but the two straight up losses came at the hands of the Colts, who won at Reliant Stadium by four points in both 2007 and 2008. Going back even further, Houston has won just once in seven home tries vs. Indianapolis, but has compiled a competitive 5-2 ATS mark. If the Colts (10-0, 6-4 ATS), who remain undefeated after winning at Baltimore, have had any weak spot when it comes to pointspreads, it’s been in divisional play, 7-14 ATS dating back to 2006. The Texans are 6-2 ATS in their last eight AFC South home games. Their contests vs. division foes have been high scoring as well, with 16-6 OVER mark.

CLEVELAND at CINCINNATI (-13, 39.5) 1:00 CBS

The Browns (1-9, 4-6 ATS) nearly handed Cincinnati a defeat back in Week 4, falling 23-20. That game was in Cleveland, and marked the third straight win in the head-to-head series by the visiting team. This second meeting is at Paul Brown Stadium in the Queen City, and would seem to favor Cleveland based upon that last trend, but unfortunately, the Browns have been dreadful, particularly on the road, being outscored by 14.5 points per game while going 1-5 SU & 3-3 ATS. The latest debacle was in Detroit where they lost 38-37, giving up a 24-3 lead. For the Bengals (7-3, 6-4 ATS), off the upset loss in Oakland, they have gotten to the top of the AFC North thanks to their performance against divisional foes. This will in fact be their last division game of 2009, and they are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS to date. Cincinnati is shredding poor pass defenses and is 16-3 ATS vs. teams allowing seven or more passing yards per attempt in the second half of the season.

CHICAGO at MINNESOTA (-11, 47) 4:15E FOX

The Vikings (6-3-1 ATS) wrap up a season long three-game homestand when they host Chicago. This head-to-head series has been one dominated by home teams in recent years, 11-2 SU and 10-3 ATS since 2002. It will be the first matchup of 2009, with the next one in just four weeks. Chicago (4-6 ATS) has dropped five of its last six games to fall to 4-6, and with the logjam of teams in the NFC wildcard hunt, postseason hopes are dimming. The Bears boast a record of 25-12 ATS in November road contests, 8-5-1 ATS under coach Lovie Smith. The Vikings, now 9-1 after beating Seattle, have swept their divisional opponents so far this season, going 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS. Last November’s 34-14 win by host Minnesota marked the first time in six games where the winning margin was more than 10 points. Chicago’s collapse could be extended since they are 0-7 ATS in road games vs. offensive teams scoring 29 or more points a contest, losing by almost 24 point a game.

WASHINGTON at PHILADELPHIA (-9.5, 40.5) 1:00E FOX

Washington faces a second straight divisional road tilt when it travels to Philadelphia (6-4 SU & ATS). The Redskins (3-7 ATS) look for better results than what happened in Dallas, a 7-6 defeat that dropped their record to 3-7. That was Washington’s third straight divisional loss of 2009; however they’ve won their last two games in Philly, both as 6-1/2 point underdogs. The Eagles won the first meeting between these teams back on Monday night, October 26th, 27-17. That marked the fifth time in six games that the visiting team won outright. Head coach Andy Reid’s team is 1-1 SU & ATS vs. divisional foes at home this season and just 2-7 ATS in that scenario dating back four seasons. However, they are 25-10 ATS vs. bad teams (Win Pct. 25% to 40%), and 18-9 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points in his tenure.

MIAMI (-3, 39) at BUFFALO 1:00E CBS

The Dolphins are .500 for the first time this season, and as much as it’s been an uphill climb to this point, it gets even tougher, as Miami (5-5 ATS) will be without stud running back Ronnie Brown against a challenging end of the year slate. This one at Buffalo is the easiest on paper, as the Bills (3-7, 5-5 ATS) are struggling and just last week fired their coach. Plus, the Dolphins boast an impressive 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS mark on the road in divisional play under coach Tony Sparano. They will however, be looking to snap a skid of eight straight ATS losses vs. poor offensive teams gaining 285 or fewer yards per game. Buffalo averages just 275.7 yards and is scoring just 13.2 points per game in its four home contests of 2009 (1-3 SU & ATS). The Bills are 8-4 SU and ATS in last dozen hosting Miami, and had won four straight prior to the last season’s defeat.

ARIZONA at TENNESSEE (-2, 45) 4:15 FOX

Arizona has yet to lose on the road in five games this season, covering four of them. A sixth straight win will be a challenge though, as the Cardinals (7-3, 6-4 ATS) will be visiting Tennessee, a team that seems to have awaken from the dead. After dropping their first six games, the Titans (4-6, 5-5 ATS) have rallied with running back Chris Johnson insisting they would finish 10-6. Considering HC Jeff Fisher’s team won its first 10 games on 2008, maybe the boast wasn’t so outlandish. If the winning streak is still intact after Monday, Tennessee looks to make it five straight and extend a 32-14 ATS record vs. NFC foes under Fisher. Arizona has gotten hot itself, winning six of seven, regaining the Super Bowl form of 2008. Under Ken Whisenhunt, the Cards are 8-0 ATS vs. teams allowing 350 or more yards per contest and Tennessee concedes 376. Given the Titans turnaround, don’t ignore their 7-0 ATS mark after gaining 150 or more rushing yards in three straight games.

SEATTLE (-4, 42.5) at ST LOUIS 1:00E FOX

A strange NFL scheduling twist finds St. Louis (1-9, 5-5 ATS) wrapping up a three-game homestand against Seattle (3-7 SU & ATS), a team finishing off a three-game road trip. Not only are three-game swings rare in general, but teams squaring off in opposite ends is almost unheard of. It will be the second meeting between the divisional rivals of 2009, with the Seahawks having taken the season opener 27-0 at home. It was their fifth straight win in the head-to-head series, both SU & ATS. In St. Louis, Seattle has taken four straight, none by more than six-points however. The Rams are on a 3-12 ATS slide vs. division foes, and 7-22 ATS in same-season revenge spots. A win by either side would be the first of the year in the current home/road setup, with Seattle 0-5 away, and St. Louis 0-5 as host.

TAMPA BAY at ATLANTA (-12, 46) 1:00E FOX

With two head-to-head matchups in the final six weeks of their respective schedules, Tampa Bay (1-9, 5-7 ATS) will have the chance to really impact Atlanta’s playoff hopes. As it is, those hopes are already fading, as the Falcons (5-5, 3-7 ATS) have lost four of five games to slip back to .500. They have been solid at home however, going 4-0 SU and ATS in 2009, and 11-1 SU & 9-3 ATS in the year-and-half under HC Mike Smith. His team starts a key three-game homestand here against a Buccaneers’ team that has won just once, and is 1-13 SU and 4-10 ATS in its last 14 tilts overall. Tampa Bay has gotten the better of the head-to-head series between these divisional rivals of late, offering a 12-5 SU and ATS in last 12 years, including 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS over the last two. Atlanta has not been double-digit chalk since 2005 and the favorite is 16-5-2 ATS in this series.

CAROLINA at NY JETS (-3.5, 41.5)1:00E FOX

Both the Panthers’ and Jets’ playoff hopes took a serious hit this past week, as losses dropped each team to 4-6 with six games left. It might take a miracle for both clubs, as their remaining schedules, particularly in late December, are loaded with quality opponents. It’s hard to believe that New York (4-6 ATS) was once 3-0 and headed to a showdown with New Orleans. Including that setback, the Jets have lost six of seven games, with the last three at home, all by five points or less. The Panthers (4-6 ATS) have gone the opposite direction by winning four of seven games since their 0-3 start. However, their home loss to the Dolphins 10 days ago was a killer. They are 0-2 SU and ATS vs. AFC foes in 2009 after going 4-0 ATS a year ago and 0-4 ATS in ’07. New York is on a 4-13 ATS slide vs. losing teams, while Carolina is 12-4-2 ATS as a road underdog of three or less.

JACKSONVILLE at SAN FRANCISCO (-3, 41.5) 4:05E CBS

The old saying indicates that if it quacks like a duck and walks like a duck, it must be a duck. Well, Jacksonville (4-6 ATS) doesn’t look like a playoff team, and is being outscored by opponents (19.9 to 23.5) while allowing 5.9 yards per play, yet if the postseason started today, the 6-4 Jaguars would be in. They begin a stretch of three straight games that could have a great bearing on their eventual fortunes. This game vs. San Francisco will be followed up by a three-game homestand, all vs. AFC playoff contenders. Consider today the Jags are 3-12 ATS when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points. Head coach Jack Del Rio’s team is on a 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS slide vs. NFC foes. The 49ers (6-2-2 ATS) dropped to 4-6 by losing at Green Bay, yet boast superior numbers in this matchup. The Niners are 6-1-2 ATS vs. teams with winning record. These squads have met twice previously, never in San Francisco. Both games went UNDER, with the 49ers totaling 12 points and they are 8-0 UNDER after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous contest.

KANSAS CITY at SAN DIEGO (-13.5, 45) 4:05E CBS

San Diego has completed the journey back to the top of the AFC West and will try to protect that lead when it hosts divisional rival Kansas City. The Chargers (5-5 ATS) are 7-3 and face only two remaining opponents boasting a winning record at this point. This will be the second meeting of ’09, with San Diego winning 37-7 win at Arrowhead in Week 7. That could be an important score since the Chiefs (3-7, 5-5 ATS) are on an 8-1 ATS run revenging a loss in which they scored 14 points or less. Kansas City has also played competitively on the road vs. AFC West rivals, covering four straight times against the number. Coach Norv Turner’s team is 0-2 ATS as a divisional host this season after going 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in its previous five. Underdogs have gone 7-2 ATS in previous meetings of the series in San Diego, with the SU winner 24-5-2 ATS since 1994.


Written by Steve Makinen of StatFox.com.
Doug Upstone contributed to this article.

Bears by the Bay for NFL Thursday Night

It’s the first of six consecutive games on the NFL Network package. These games have tended to be fair (as in OK) matchups, with the league not trying to anger the other networks that help keep the coffers nicely stocked with cash. Of course the NFL bosses will throw around money to prevent sports bettors from having legalized gambling, thus what they are really doing is providing one game on their network for the enjoyment of those that can afford the NFL Network for the enjoyment of all their fans, having absolutely nothing to do with sports wagering. (Wink, wink)

The Setup

The first Thursday night game of the NFL season pits two fringe playoff contenders in the NFC against one another. San Francisco (3-5, 5-2-1 ATS) is playing at home and as the small favorite, which could prove important, since favorites are 24-6 ATS on Thursday games going back five seasons. It’s also notable since favorites are on a run of 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in the last seven games between these teams, each time the host club in the role of the chalk. The 49ers are on a four-game losing skid, but have won five of last seven at home. Chicago (4-4 SU&ATS) is on a 25-11 ATS run on the road in November, but just 1-3 SU and ATS on the road this season, being outscored by 10.5 points per game while turning the ball over 13 times. The Bears are not playing well, having lost three of their last four tries.

Why Watch

Mike Singletary is a legend in Chicago, for his fiery play and intensity (those bulging eyes shots are classic) and ended up the Hall of Fame. Now he faces his old team as the coach.

Though it was before Singletary was head coach, a bit of bad blood exists between these teams’ front offices. In 2006, the Bears brought tampering charges against the 49ers for pursuing linebacker Lance Briggs, who was in the midst of a contract dispute with the Bears. The NFL ruled against San Fran, and they were docked a fifth-round pick in the 2008 draft.

This contest features two of the better tight ends on the NFC with Vernon Davis and Greg Olson, the latter coming off three touchdown game.

Which quarterback will throw more game-changing interceptions to drive sport bettor insane? Alex Smith has five picks in basically 2.5 games and Jay Cutler has just what you get at Dunkin Donuts, a dozen.

Why Wager

Do you really care about the NBA yet? Yea didn’t think so. The Bears are 6-0 ATS having lost three out of their last four games over the last three seasons. San Francisco is 8-16 ATS after allowing 28 or more points.

Some might be of the opinion Chicago is more done than the last of the leaves that were just raked up and the Bears are 1-8 ATS after gaining six or more yards play in their previous game. Besides, the Niners are 5-2-1 ATS after an L.

The Line

Bookmaker.com has 49ers by 3 with total of 43.5.

What Happens

The aforementioned Mr. Briggs steps his play up and tries to compensate for crummy secondary by playing the run like a stud and blitzes QB Smith into mistakes. Defensive lineman Tommie Harris finally decides to play football and not look like the second coming of Alonzo Spellman. The Chicago wide receivers are the worst in the NFL and most have no clue how to run deep routes. Throw short and hope they make a move to use exceptional speed.

Of course for every action there is a reaction and San Francisco would be making a huge mistake not keeping Smith in the shotgun as much as possible. He’s obviously more comfortable in it from his college days and reads the field better. Remember the strength of the offense was supposed to be the line, ask Frank Gore what he thinks about that notion with all his one and two yard gains. Block somebody. Excuse the 49ers secondary if they smile a lot facing the Bears wideouts, put any kind of pressure on Cutler and they are covered like blanket.

The Outcome

3DW selects San Fran to cover

It's the halfway point of NFL regular season

It was an ordinary day at 2-2. Today we bring in a hot NFL bettor who’s over 77 percent the last three weeks. The Top Trend is a double angle on the same game. What game you ask, read on. The Best System is 81.6 percent and in the Bay Area. Good Luck

New Poll Question about announcers at the bottom of page.

What I thought yesterday – Charley Weis will make a tremendous offensive coordinator and quarterback coach when he’s back in the NFL. Has Oklahoma really lost four games this season? Who would ever believe Bob Stoops brother would have a better record than him in any season. Could the USC offense possibly look any worse? Purdue wins at Michigan for the first time since 1966, when Bob Greise was the quarterback AND punter!!!

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Football System-1) PLAY AGAINST underdogs or pick like Tennessee who have been outscored by opponents by four or more points game, after scoring 30 points or more last game. This system is 26-6 ATS, 81.6 percent.

Free Football Trend-2) Double angle- Arizona is 10-1 ATS after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored and Chicago is 1-11 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +4 or better.

Free Football Pick -3) Randy of the Left Coast Connection is 14-4 in the NFL the last three weeks and has Houston as Top Pick.

Looking Ahead in the Rearview Mirror in the NFL

It was a long Sunday night in Cheese-land and probably a pretty slow work day Monday in much of the state of Wisconsin after Brett Favre and the Minnesota Vikings defeated the beloved Packers at Lambeau Field late Sunday afternoon. The realization is complete, no matter what Green Bay had hoped for, Brett Favre is still a very good quarterback and he makes the players around him better.

It was also an EXTREMELY painful day for coach Mike McCarthy and GM Ted Thompson, as their worst nightmare came true. About the only thing that will heal this wound is beating Minnesota in the playoffs and going to the Super Bowl. In the end, the Minnesota front office was able to do something Green Bay’s front office wasn’t willing to do, swallow their ego, do embarrassing public groveling and secure the quarterback they needed.

Talking to a bookie in Wisconsin, he absolutely cleaned up, with over 80 percent of his action on the Packers; many betting more than usual because of their desire to have their modern day Benedict Arnold get his.

Here is what we know. Minnesota is decidedly stronger along the offensive and defensive lines than Green Bay. Brad Childress is emulating his former boss Andy Reid in surrounding his quarterback with playmakers who are difference-makers. Coach McCarthy should return his salary for one game for his performance in Week 8.

Part of being a coach is understanding your personnel. It’s imperative to place those players in the best position to win by comprehending their weaknesses and building on strengths. In the first half of the game against the Vikings, there was no discernable difference in the game plan Green Bay had just weeks prior at the Metrodome. No extra blockers to protect bodily harm on Aaron Rodgers and pass routes that took too long to develop. Rodgers played equally as uninformed, standing in the pocket, hanging on the ball too long and taking sacks. The defense rushed three players in passing downs and Favre could have ordered from his restaurant just up the street and had it delivered with the amount of time he had in the pocket.

Finally, after Minnesota took a commanding 24-3 lead in the third quarter, a sense of urgency arrived. Rodgers stepped up in the pocket and released the ball quicker. The offensive line made a cleaner pocket by driving Vikings D-linemen to the outside, forming better pocket and the defense started bring a fourth or fifth player to pressure Favre and Green Bay stormed back to trail 31-26.

With the game at its most critical juncture, McCarthy’s flopped. On 4th and 8, the Packer coach went for a 51-yard field to narrow the lead to two points if good. The problem was the risk was too great for the reward. The miss gave Minnesota not only a sigh of relief and renewed confidence; it gave them the ball at their 41-yard line. Granted, a Packers failed fourth down conversion would have only been a difference of eight yards, however that is essentially one more first down. In the end, the Pack’s organization took a big hit, are left to squander for wild card most likely and Green Bay fans betting with their hearts are heart-broken and have a little less money than they started off the weekend.

The sportsbooks returned to the winning side this past Sunday, thanks to two games in particular. Indianapolis was a solid 11-point favorite and was -13 by Sunday morning. A rare off day by Peyton Manning standards exposed just how ordinary Indianapolis offense can be when he’s not right. The boxscore shows Manning passed for 347 yards, however at least seven of his incompletions were throws he usually connects on. San Francisco coach Mike Singletary needs to put in offense with Alex Smith throwing from the shot-gun more, he looks much more comfortable.

The other bonanza was the Giants. Sports bettors saw Brian Westbrook out, Giants off a pair of bad losses and incredible road record and tripped over themselves to bet the G-Men, moving the line from +3 to -2 at kickoff on New York. The more mentally and physically prepared team was Philly in building 33-7 halftime lead. Eli Manning looks like the quarterback from early 2007 and both lines are unable to compensate for other weakness.

Next Sunday’s night Dallas at Philadelphia should be fun.

Both the Colts and Giants were in a number of parlay and teasers along the San Diego who was -10 in six-point teaser cards, helping the books.

The Buffalo and Carolina game of a week ago had an impact on this past Sunday. The Bills were a fairly popular among handicappers having pulled off consecutive road upsets and at home as underdog. Obviously nobody was watching Buffalo play, as a case can be made Ryan Fitzpatrick is the worst No.2 quarterback in the NFL. He was just awful taking over for Carson Palmer in Cincinnati last season. And despite being the under center for both upsets of the Jets and Panthers, Fitzpatrick had passed for less than 120 yards per game. Nothing changed as he totaled 117 yards thru the air in Buffalo’s convincing 31-10 home loss.

Carolina still has issues, but when they have the right mindset and execute coach John Fox football, these Cats are handful. Carolina was determined from the first snap, something Arizona wasn’t (still gloating evidently from Giants win), and shoved the ball down the throat of supposedly stout run Cardinals run defense for 270 yards. Kurt Warner looked every bit of 38-years old, throwing five interceptions and fumbling. Off a sound performance and catching the Saints off a Monday night game, Carolina is intriguing underdog in the Bayou as underdog having a 7-1 ATS mark in New Orleans. The Cardinals whine about respect playing in the Super Bowl, but dud performances like that only back what people believe about their inconsistency, as does 1-3 SU and ATS home record. All three losses were as favorites.

Chicago Bears fans have been groveling all season wondering what happened to the Kyle Orton who couldn’t keep starting job in the Windy City. Sunday, they finally saw him in Denver’s whipping by motivated Baltimore team. The public punched the Ravens ticket moving them 1.5-points from early Saturday afternoon to -4.5. Watch for how the Broncos react, with Pittsburgh in the Mile High City next Monday.

Know your Numbers- Teams allowing 40 or more points and playing the following week were 3-0 SU and against the spread, taking their record to 6-2 ATS on the year.—Short numbers have not been healthy for favorites. Home favorites of three or less are 13-10, 12-10-1 ATS and backing small road faves at three or less produces 4-8 SU and ATS record. –After four weeks, NFL favorites were 36-26 ATS, however, that has flattened out, with the chalk 25-28-1ATS the last month. –This has been happening with regularity of lately. Teams traveling three time zones struggle with initial trip. This season, the first 10 games that applied the visitor was 2-8 ATS. The last four contests after coaches knowing what to expect and warning squads are 4-0 ATS. Watch for results of Detroit and San Diego this week.

Week 7 NFL Game Matchups

Their might only be 13 games on the schedule for this week, however, Sunday afternoon five exceptional matchups really standout. This week AFC-NFC conflicts dominate the schedule and four in particular are worth noting. The NFC leads 13-10 SU and Minnesota will put unbeaten record on the line at Pittsburgh. Two upstarts, San Francisco and Houston will try to keep pushing playoff aspirations. Chicago and Cincinnati meet in the Queen City and one team will have consecutive losses at the end of the day. New Orleans is in potential flat spot on the road against rested home underdog Miami and Dallas also returns from a bye week and to face a dangerous Atlanta squad.

Minnesota at Pittsburgh 1:00E FOX

Minnesota (6-0, 4-2 ATS) continues its most difficult stretch of the 2009 season with a trip to what could be the NFL’s toughest environment, Heinz Field in Pittsburgh. The defending champion Steelers (1-5 ATS) are starting to find their groove, having won three straight games to move to 4-2, with 27-14 win over Cleveland. They’ll head into their bye week next, important since underdogs and road teams are 6-1 ATS in the last seven Pittsburgh pre-bye week games. Head coach Mike Tomlin’s team is also just 2-5 ATS in its last seven tries vs. NFC foes and just 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS hosting the Vikings. Still, with a 28-11 ATS record vs. teams with winning percentage of 75 or higher, Pittsburgh has to like its chances. Minnesota will be out for more late game magic vs. the Steelers and is 3-0 SU and ATS on the road.

Keys to the Game-

At 40-years old, Brett Favre has the third highest quarterback rating at this juncture of the season, as the offensive line has done superior work in keeping his jersey clean. This allows Favre to step into his throws and getting attacking defenses. Last week was perfect example as they built 14-0 lead on Baltimore before they knew what hit them. Minnesota has performed poorly in two of last three games in the fourth quarter, being torched on the ground and thru the air. That won’t work against Ben Roethlisberger and the Vikes are 1-10 ATS in road games after allowing seven or more yards a play in their previous game.

The Steelers haven't allowed a 100-yard rusher in 24 consecutive regular season games and keeping Adrian Peterson in tow is tantamount. Favre has hit a number of plays to WR Sidney Rice the last few weeks, those have to be contained. Pittsburgh is 11-2 ATS in home games after gaining 300 or more passing yards and must keep Jered Allen away from Big Ben and keep the pressure on 24th ranked pass defense.

3DWLine – Pittsburgh by 2.5

DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Pittsburgh -6, 46.5

San Francisco at Houston 1:00E FOX

After being off last week, San Francisco coach Mike Singletary faces a challenge of getting his 49ers (3-2, 4-1 ATS) teams to play well, as they were 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in post-bye week games prior to his arrival. Another obstacle figures to be the fact that this will be the 49ers first ever trip to Reliant Stadium. They are still stinging from the 45-10 loss to Atlanta, their first ATS setback of 2009. Overall, they are 5-2-1 ATS on the road under Singletary. Houston (3-3 SU&ATS) has been tough to read this season, alternating wins and losses. This week would be a loss according to that pattern. The Texans boast a 16-11 ATS home record under Gary Kubiak, but just 3-3 ATS hosting NFC foes. In addition to San Francisco’s post-bye team struggles, the OVER has converted in those last 10 games.

Keys to the Game-

With a week off, it’s time for the Niners to be more creative offensively. Lacking a deep threat in the passing game, teams have increasingly crowded the line of scrimmage to stop the run. Michael Crabtree might not all the offense; however he knows how to go deep and fight for the pigskin. San Francisco has the worst third down conversion rate in the league, which means more three and four yard gains on first down are imperative. The 49ers defense found out what a hot quarterback can do against Atlanta and Matt Schaub shifts the ball around to lots of receivers. They have to tighten coverage or they will fall to 5-13 ATS on the road against foe off a SU underdog triumph.

The Houston running game has been ineffectual (30th), nevertheless getting the ball to RB Steve Slaton on screens and wheel-routes in the correct method to exploit slower linebackers. The offensive line will have to allow Schaub time to throw and he has been on target with clean throwing lanes. The defensive line should use this opportunity to get sack-groove back as QB Shaun Hill lacks pocket presence and has been tackled for loss repeatedly. The Texans have covered nine of last 13 tilts.

3DW Line – Houston by 2
Bookmaker.com Line – Houston -3, 44

Chicago at Cincinnati 4:15E FOX

Chicago begins a two-game stint against AFC North foes when it travels to Cincinnati. The Bears (3-2, SU&ATS) haven’t been to the Queen City since recording a 24-0 win back in 2001. Overall, the road team has won three of the last four games, both SU & ATS, between these non-conference foes. The Bears are just 10-12 ATS vs. AFC teams under Lovie Smith, including 5-5 ATS on the road. Cincinnati (4-2, 3-3 ATS) shares the same won-lost record as Pittsburgh for the AFC Central lead and hopes to head into its bye week on a good note. The Bengals off the home loss to Houston in which they yielded 472 yards, are looking for a sixth straight ATS win vs. the NFC, although they are just 2-4-1 ATS as hosts in that role since 2005. Road teams are 6-2 ATS in Cincinnati’s pre-bye week games since 2001.

Keys to the Game-

Chicago should know what to do with former teammate Cedric Benson, as he is one-cut-and-go runner. The Bears defense tackles bottled up Michael Turner last week (30-yards) and need to shoot the gaps to contain Benson. Cincinnati loves to blitz and might need to even more without DE Antwan Odom gone for the season. Though the Bears receiving core is feeble, so is the Bengals 28th rated pass defense. Give Jay Cutler time and Chicago has the upset and Bears move to 10-4 ATS following a spread loss.

When Cincinnati almost lost to Cleveland a couple weeks ago, they were arrogant in kicking the ball to Joshua Cribbs, giving the Browns excellent field position time and again. Coach Marvin Lewis has to be smarter against the Bears return personnel or a loss could entail. Be patient with Benson on the ground. He has shown proclivity for breaking big runs, don’t be discouraged by a series of minimal gains. The Bengals have bounced back after sorry defensive performances and are 6-2 ATS after allowing more than 350 total yards. Create exotic blitz packages to annoy Cutler, who have shown he’s not above making poor throwing decisions.

3DWLine – Chicago by 3
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Cincinnati -1, 42.5

New Orleans at Miami 4:15E FOX

After losing its first three games, Miami won its last two before its bye week to climb back into the AFC East race. The next three weeks will determine whether the Dolphins (2-3 ATS) are capable of staying in the hunt. After this game against the undefeated Saints (5-0 SU&ATS), they face trips to New York and New England, both critical divisional contests. Miami comes in on a 4-8 ATS slide as a home underdog. New Orleans is off the statement win over the Giants and also faces a pair of divisional opponents up next, only at home, starting with Atlanta. The Saints are 6-0 ATS the last two years vs. the AFC, and 17-6 ATS vs. AFC East foes dating back to 1992. They are also 8-1 ATS as road chalk under coach Sean Payton. Miami last hosted the Saints in 1998, and is 2-0 SU & ATS in those meetings.

Keys to the Game –

The New England Patriots of a couple of seasons ago might have been a tremendous story ravaging the NFL in the first part of the season; however this New Orleans offense is no less lethal. Coach Payton’s attacking game plans immediately have opponents on tilt, with Drew Brees the executioner. The Saints are 11-1 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons in no small part because they win the turnover battle. They are +9 in 2009. New Orleans must tame the “wildcat”. Scoring quickly and building lead places more pressure on slower-paced Miami to score more frequently.

The best way to cool Brees is have him on the sidelines. Miami has the NFL’s best running game and averages over 36 carries a game. Use the same tactics that almost ended Indianapolis unbeaten season. With an extra week to work out deficiencies, the Dolphins have to have Joey Porter and Jason Taylor pestering Brees or he will eat up safeties, the weak link of Fins defense. Miami is 4-14 ATS off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog and they better spot TE Jeremy Shockey from the Saints first offensive snap or another loss is forthcoming.

3DWLine – New Orleans by 7
Bookmaker.com Line – New Orleans -6.5, 48

Atlanta at Dallas 4:15E CBS

Dallas may have headed into its bye week with the confidence of a 3-2 team, but the truth is the Cowboys (2-3 ATS) are closer to being 1-4 than they are to being elite outfit. A late interception return versus Carolina and OT win at Kansas City has made the difference. Offensively they have been stellar, gaining an incredible 7.0 yards per play, best in the NFL. However, defensively, they are yielding 5.8 yards per play, and ranked 22nd in total defense. They start a two-game homestand, and they’ll take on another pretty good team offensively, Atlanta, who comes in at 4-1 after beating Chicago. The Falcons (4-1 ATS) begin a stretch of four road games in their next five. They are on a run of 21-9 ATS in October road games. Speaking of visitors, road teams are 6-0 SU & ATS in Dallas’ last six post-bye week contests.

Keys to the Game-

Frequently, teams off a bye are somewhat lethargic playing at home and off a victory. This sets up perfect opportunity to spring no-huddle offense on Dallas, say the second series of the game. Matt Ryan showed he can handle this attack comfortably and the Cowboys are 26th against the pass. Atlanta has improved the last two weeks stopping the run and applying quarterback pressure, but has blown contain and let opposing QB’s scramble for first downs. Keep Romo in the pocket. Once again the secondary is a concern for Falcons, which means pass rush has to work. The Birds are 0-6 ATS after two or more consecutive wins since last year.

The offensive line has to take it Atlanta, building on No.3 rush attack. This keeps Romo from making boneheaded plays. Great efficiency is also needed in the red zone as seven touchdowns in 15 red zone possessions is not good enough. Ryan, the former Boston College quarterback, has not been sacked since the third quarter of the first game against Miami. After lumbering start, Cowboys have 10 sacks in last three contests. Get to Ryan and chances of 6-0 ATS record off a bye improve substantially.

3DWLine – Atlanta by 2
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Dallas -4.5, 47.5

Steve Makinen of StatFox contributed to this article.

Upon further review in the NFL

The difference between a playoff team and one who misses can often be a very thin line. Luck or getting the right breaks can make all the difference. 2008 division champions Tennessee, Carolina and Miami have yet to post a win this season (1-8 ATS) and for all intents and purposes, are very unlikely to make the playoffs. So what happened?

The loss of Albert Haynesworth has affected the Titans in a different way than anticipated. Tennessee hasn’t dramatically been affected by run defense, however with no pass rush up the middle against opposing quarterbacks, the Titans are 29th against the pass. For the most part, Tennessee was better than the unbeaten Jets on Sunday, but two special team’s fumbles deep in their own territory gift-wrapped two touchdowns for New York. (Coach Fisher a strong candidate for "What not to wear" TV show)

Carolina can’t generate a consistent running game (21st), which leaves Jake Delhomme left to win the game, which he does not appear capable of doing. The Panthers felt they had to be quicker on defense and went lighter. Instead of making more plays, opposing teams are pushing them around and Carolina is 29th against the rush.

Miami is returning back to earth after miracle revival from a year ago, following a 1-15 season. The Dolphins still have satisfactory running game, but has been the case, teams decided to no longer respect the Dolphins passing game. Ted Ginn Jr. has shown why most were shocked when Miami drafted him so high. He’s a poor route runner, who lacks the ability to create separation despite tremendous straight-line speed. The Fins averaging a mere 5.0 yards per pass (29th). Maybe Chad Henne can try and stretch the field. The Dolphins have had a difficult schedule to boot, yet it doesn’t appear to lighten up with four AFC East games and New Orleans on the next five outings.

San Francisco isn’t going anywhere and looks very capable of covering a number of spreads. They create a dilemma for oddsmakers also, since they lack explosiveness on offense to warrant exaggerated figures and the defense is more team-oriented than exceptional.

There were fewer reasons to bet on Indianapolis on Sunday in Arizona than to tune in “Lost”. Virtually every perspective was against the Colts, expect for one element, Peyton Manning. Even if you don’t like all his commercials, the guy is a player. He had that look in his eyes, and if you have wagered against Indy when he does, just mark it as a loss. Talent-wise this is not a great Colts team, yet they have a chance to be great because they have Manning.

Any wonder why the Vikings never gave up on Brett Favre. Here’s a dollar to your thousand that two guys named Tarvais and Sage never even attempted the throw Favre made.

Denver would be 3-0 SU and ATS right now if they had Jay Cutler as their quarterback, but guaranteed Chicago wouldn’t be 2-1 if they didn’t have the former Bronco. Greg Olson is above average tight end, but Cutler is throwing to Devin Hester, Earl Bennett and Johnny Knox, who are arguably the worst collection of wideouts in the NFL. Along with an active defensive line, Cutler is the reason for Bears winning record.

Study the numbers

For underdog seekers, it was not a good week in the NFL, with favorites 11-5 ATS. Home underdogs performed poorly for the third straight week at 2-5 ATS and are 5-11 ATS on the season. Take a look pro teams that have won as road or home underdogs, they are 8-3 ATS in the early going the next week.

The favorites were crushed in college football last week, covering 20 of 50 games played. Double digit home favorites in particular were very beatable at 7-14 against the number. In a statistical oddity, the totals have been evenly split each of the last three weeks on the college board.

Line movers were 2-7 ATS in NFL sides and totals in which the number moved 2.5 or more points. The wagering public also was nailed on college sides with 4-10 ATS mark on contests that moved three points or more. However, good fortune continued on college totals with 15-7 week, taking season total record to 54-23, 70.1 percent.

NFL Week 2 Previews

The second week of the NFL season brings into play a number of fascinating wagering viewpoints. The Jets are talking smack, are they ready to back it up at home against New England. No quarterback is hotter than Drew Brees, look for him to see the full Philly blitz package. First place is on the line when Seattle visits San Francisco, plus two other unbeaten teams will collide in San Diego, when Baltimore pays the Chargers a visit. Pittsburgh and Chicago could easily have had different results in season opener. Look for serious helmet-paint trading in the Windy City.

New England at N.Y. Jets 1:00E CBS

The Patriots-Jets rivalry has been one of the fiercest in the NFL in recent years, and there was always no love lost between the teams in the Eric Mangini era in New York. Perhaps that could have something to do with the fact that the Patriots have won 10 straight games against the spread (9-1 SU) at the Meadowlands. New Jets head man Rex Ryan is stoking the fires in his own way by saying in a radio interview he didn't come to New York "to kiss Bill Belichick's rings." Ryan is looking to restore some home field advantage as they begin their home slate for the third straight year against their arch rivals. New York was a horrendous 1-7-1 ATS in home games vs. divisional foes under Mangini and needs this game to take command of the AFC East. New England has become well known for its divisional success, 12-1 SU & ATS in its last 13 away from home vs. its division counterparts.

Keys to the Game-

New England was lucky last Monday to win and they know. Tom Brady was understandably rusty and started to find a rhythm in the second half, just not being able to score touchdowns. Expect the Patriots to play at quicker pace to force New York to play in base defense. Though New England out-gained Buffalo by 165 total yards, the defense allowed 4.7 yards per carry, which won’t stop the Jets. The Pats are 19-7 ATS as a favorite of 3.5-10.0 points and needs to pressure rookie Mark Sanchez into poor decisions.

The Jets have seen the tape, New England did a poor job stopping the run and off a 190-yard performance last week, OC Brian Schottenheimer will challenge Belichick’s defense man on man. Sanchez showed good poise in keeping plays alive and finding right receiver in his first start. He made a few miscues, however they were as much about being too excited, as physical errors. He must be calm and try and not force the action when the Pats pressure him, with the Jets expected to roll him out and shorten his field of vision for safer passes. Corner Darrelle Ravis took away Andre Johnson last week, if he can blanket Randy Moss, he’ll slow down Patriots offense.

Despite all the good feelings with new situation, the Flyboys are 2-13 ATS in home games in the first two weeks of the season and have to be like a boxer and knock New England out.

3DWLine – New England by 4
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – New England -3.5, 45

New Orleans at Philadelphia 1:00E FOX

Philadelphia takes on a second straight NFC South foe when it hosts New Orleans. Expectations are high in Philly this year and the Eagles are off to a fast start, having routed Carolina 38-10 in Week 1. Perhaps minus QB Donovan McNabb (last report was doubtful), they’ll look to build on that win at home, where they were 6-2 SU & ATS in 2008. They also boast that same straight up mark (7-1 ATS) in their eight meetings with the Saints. However, head coach Andy Reid has not gotten his team’s best effort in home openers, just 4-5 SU & 4-4-1 ATS since 2000. Sean Payton’s team was expected to win and did at home versus the Lions last Sunday, but this week’s test will be much tougher. The Saints have won just two of last nine (3-5-1 ATS) true road games, allowing 26.3 points per game in that span. They are also on a 4-8 ATS slide as underdogs.

Keys to the Game-

It looks like Kevin Kolb will be the guy for the Eagles, which means three-five step drops and Kolb releasing the ball quickly. On film, New Orleans tackled poorly, thus getting the pigskin in the hands of receivers DeSean Jackson and Kevin Curtis is the best route to go, since both are excellent after the catch. Brian Westbook’s values goes up even higher this week, trying to carry a greater load for club that is 5-1 ATS against winning teams. Philly has dilemma how to attack this red-hot Saints offense.

Though August football doesn’t count for much, it helped establish who’s the best quarterback in the NFL right today, Drew Brees. He’s been uncanny with his full compliment of receivers and has been unflustered by what he’s seen on defense. If New Orleans can continue to run the ball they’ll move to 9-3 ATS in road openers. Safety Darren Sharper doesn’t have the range he used to, but is still a ball-hawk (two picks last week) and he’ll try and confuse Kolb on pre-snap reads that could lead to mistakes.

3DWLine – Philadelphia by 11 (based on McNabb playing)
Bookmaker.com Line – New Orleans -1.5, 45.5

Seattle at San Francisco 4:05E FOX

Seattle and San Francisco were the big winners in last week’s NFC West duals, each winning on the road. Now, with the early lead in the standings at stake, the teams will go head-to-head on Sunday. The 49ers are a slight favorite after being outgained by Arizona on Sunday 299-203, averaging less than a yard in its 25 carries. Meanwhile, the Seahawks dominated St. Louis, winning on the scoreboard 28-0, and on the yardage total, 446-247. Seattle has been the better of these two teams in recent confrontations, going 5-2 SU & ATS in its last seven trips to San Francisco, and 8-3 SU & 7-4 ATS in last 11 games overall. Head coach Jim Mora’s team also boasts a 9-4 ATS record mark since 2007 in NFC West matchups. However, the Seahawks are just 1-9 ATS coming off a win by 10 points or more. The 49ers are unsavory 1-6 ATS as divisional hosts. This is only the second time San Francisco has been favored in this series since 2003.

Keys to the Game-

Niners QB Shaun Hill looked unglued by Arizona’s pass rush most of the game, which means Seattle will be dialing up the pressure. This could be big edge for Seahawks since Hill lacks the ability to keep a play alive when under duress. San Fran’s corners did yeomen work in containing Cardinals receivers; however TE John Carlson presents extra effort with is speed and pass catching abilities. Seattle’s defense will also try and confuse San Francisco blockers and if successful, moves to 10-0 ATS in September on the road off a division task.

San Francisco offensive coaches have to be smarter this week. They stubbornly ran between the tackles against Arizona’s run blitzes, leading to second and third and long. Spice up the game plan to include play action on early downs. The offensive line hopefully had a good week of practice, since they were slow at the snap last week. Hill and Frank Gore need some help. Matt Hasselbeck is at his best when he can throw to primary receiver. The 49ers need package that creates doubt like last week, which leads to pressure. Make Hasselbeck’s healed back sore and the Seahawks fall to 1-13 ATS off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a division rival.

3DWLine – Seattle by 1
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – San Francisco -1, 39.5

Baltimore at San Diego 4:15E CBS

Don’t be fooled by Baltimore’s tight contest for period of time with Kansas City, nor the fact that the Chiefs produced 24 points; the game wasn’t nearly that competitive. The Ravens outgained the Chiefs 501-188 in total yards. They’ll look to be just as dominant this week to have a shot at beating San Diego, who will be playing its home opener after weathering the storm in Oakland 24-20. Head coach John Harbaugh’s team was 8-3 ATS on the road in 2008, but could be looking to offset a crazy trend that finds them 0-7 SU & ATS in away games where the total is 38.5-42. They are also just 1-7 SU & 2-6 ATS in road openers since 2001. The Chargers are just 2-4 SU & ATS in their last six home season kickoffs, but 13-5 ATS as hosts over the past two seasons. Speaking of home teams, the hosts have dominated this series, going 5-1 SU & ATS.

Keys to the Game –

Baltimore’s Joe Flacco showed a great deal of progression as a field general last week. He was able to spot receivers down the field expertly and checked off properly when plays broke down. This opens up Ravens playbook and they should look to confuse San Diego defense that was pushed around by the Raiders. The Chargers are big, but not especially fast in front seven, keep them moving. LaDainian Tomlinson is likely out, which means Darren Sproles. Baltimore outside linebackers has to keep him inside the tackles. The Ravens are 6-0 ATS after outgaining opponent by 100 or more total yards.

San Diego could be down two starters in the offensive line, thus look for Philip Rivers to throw underneath a lot to big physical receivers. They will occupy safety Ed Reed with Antonio Gates, clearing space. If Reed starts walking up as the eighth man in the box, watch Rivers check down to Gates on 10-15 yard sideline fades. Coach Norv Turner will use two-tight ends to help with pass protection throughout the contest. Sproles is a unique weapon, utilize him in space and run plays to see how Ravens react to where he goes on pass routes for later usage. The defense has to play with greater urgency, never really taking command of limited Oakland’s offense. They better attack Flacco if they expect to move to 12-3 ATS in home games against AFC opponents over the last three seasons.

3DWLine – SanDiego .3.5
Bookmaker.com Line – San Diego -3, 40.5

Pittsburgh at Chicago 4:15E CBS

Pittsburgh was battered and bruised in its season opener vs. Tennessee but managed to prevail in overtime 13-10. However, the Steelers face the prospects of moving on without defensive stud safety Troy Polamalu (MCL sprain) as they head to Chicago. They are just 3-5 SU & 2-6 ATS in road openers over the last eight seasons and on an extended three-year slid of going just 10-15 ATS on the road. Pittsburgh allowed 320 yards of offense to the Titans in the opener, more than they did in all but two games last season, so there are already reasons for concern. The Bears hope to bounce back from their defeat at Green Bay, and slow a trend that has seen them go just 2-5 ATS in openers at Soldier Field. Chicago is 6-0 ATS off a loss against a division rival over the last two campaigns.

Keys to the Game-

For Chicago it’s a full plate. Hopefully a full week of practice has Jay Cutler and his receivers having a better understanding of what to do when a play breaks down. Whether it was Cutler’s fault or OC Ron Turner’s blame, Matt Forte never caught a pass in the opener, after averaging over four per game in his rookie season. Get him the ball! The Bears defensive line ate up Green Bay. Pressure Ben Roethlisberger up the gut and have hard-charging defensive ends wrap him up. Follow these principles and the Bears send home fans home happy and they move to 10-4 ATS after failing to cover the spread.

Pittsburgh is going nowhere in 2009 without establishing a better ground game, which averaged 1.6 yards per carry against Tennessee. Steelers O-linemen must sustain blocks against good Chicago D-Line, with openings more readily available without Brian Urlacher in the middle. Confusing Cutler doesn’t seem to be a real task presently (his receivers do that enough). The Steelers just need to do their usual outstanding work disguising defenses and Bears fans will be calling for Bob Avellini. The Steelers cannot let Devin Hester be a factor of any sort or they might fall to 6-18 ATS as a road favorite of three points or less.

3DWLine – Pittsburgh by 3.5

DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Pittsburgh -3, 37.5

Steve Makinen of The Platinum Sheet contributed to this article.

Jay Cutler returns to Mile High City

Edward Everett Hale wrote a short story about the death of poor Philip Nolan back in the early 1800’s and based on the path Jay Cutler’s mouth and actions are leading him, he could follow in Mr. Nolan’s footsteps. Hale wrote of Nolan’s death as “A Man without a Country” and Cutler this year is making enemies every time his lips start flapping. (Gosh, Jay Cutler sure looks different out of uniform. Or maybe I pulled the wrong Jay Cutler picture)

Cutler would be wise to keep his pie-hole shut Sunday night and absorb the booing the Denver Broncos faithful will rein on him and just play football. The former Vanderbilt product (This is supposed the Harvard of the South, right) showed a rocket arm with oodles of potential in the Rockies, unfortunately proved to have skin thinner than a slice of salami, talking his way out of the Mile High City when his new coach Josh McDaniels didn’t shower him with love and had the gall to check into the services of other available quarterbacks.

Once traded to Chicago, the now windy Cutler, fit right into the Windy City, ripping Broncos fans (later apologizing) compared to Bears’ loyalists and later suggesting Devin Hester is limited as pass receiver. Of course Culter hasn’t exactly made anyone forget Billy Wade or Sid Luckman (very old school Bears QB’s) by his performances thus far, other than having All-Pro foot in mouth offseason.

Lovie Smith’s Bears have looked like most NFL teams this time of year, part choppy and part pretty good. Chicago played well at home last week in containing the Giants in 17-3 as 2.5-point favorites. They will look to do the same in Denver, but are 2-12 ATS off a home win.

Coach McDaniels acted like a rookie coach the way he handled the Cutler saga, but could not have bargained for his best receiver Brandon Marshall, would be so insubordinate he’d have to suspend for the rest of the preseason, with the rest of the story to evolve.

Quarterback Kyle Orton has looked out of place in Denver uniform, throwing numerous bad passes (including interception left-handed). The Denver front office put on happy face after trading for Orton in Cutler deal, hoping the former Purdue chucker could just manage games, much like he did in Chicago. Though nothing really matters yet, Orton has definitely not settled into his new surroundings.

Maybe positive support from the home fans will help, as they see Orton in Broncos home uniform for first time. Denver is 11-2 ATS at home after one or more consecutive straight up losses.

DiamondSportsbook.com has the Broncos as two-point favorites with total listed at 38. Denver is 11-1 ATS when they are below .500 in the preseason. The Bears are 9-21 ATS in the final two weeks of the exhibition season and 12-3 OVER in road games off one or more games going Under the total.

The NBC crew should have field day with this matchup which starts at 8 Eastern.

New Methodology for Betting NFL Win Totals

This time of year, football sports bettors are putting together their thoughts about how certain teams might perform in the upcoming NFL season. They are picking up magazines, reading thru a variety of there favorite websites, all intended to collect information for the season ahead. One aspect looked at profoundly for the sports bettor this time of year is futures wagers. These wagers involve betting on team’s total wins, winning the division, conference and the Super Bowl. Here, we will focus on team win totals and a different way of looking at trying to find value.

For those that have read any of my previous articles, you know I’m big on score differentials in almost every sport. Baseball tends to be the easiest to make sense of these numbers, because of the number of games played and runs (points) being scored one at a time. I recently wrote the Cincinnati Reds might have second half problems based on runs scored and allowed and that the Cleveland Indians should not be forgotten because they still have a potent lineup with descent peripheral numbers and they have won six of last 10 despite being out of pennant contention.

While I have followed the same numbers in football, I haven’t always been able to determine a way to view them, until now.

What I’m looking for is can last year’s points scored and allowed results lead to winning wagers on win totals? Football is completely different because of roster changes at key positions, schedules being significantly different from one year to the next and injuries often time being even more important with so few games played.

Using the same method I borrowed from Bill James from his Baseball Abstract days, I went through and devised a methodology to determine accurate win percentages based on points scored and given up.

I’ll use the defending Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers as the example. The Steelers scored 347 points during the regular season and begrudgingly conceded 223. Take both numbers and square them.

347 x 347 =120409
223 x 223 = 49729

Add the two numbers together and divide the points scored into the total to achieve percentage.

120409 divided by 170138 = .707

What I found about doing this for football as compared to baseball is you have to add .050 for teams with 10 or more wins and subtract .050 for teams that won six or less games. If a team has won seven, eight or nine contests, take the number at face value.

Thus for Pittsburgh, take the .707 percentage, add .050 and new total is .757. Last year, during the regular season, coach Mike Tomlin’s squad was 12-4, with win percentage of .750.

Let’s look back at past teams for proof this should work. The 2007 Detroit Lions were 7-9, as were the Chicago Bears. The Lions scored 346 points and allowed 444, while the Bears totaled 334 and surrendered 348. Calculating the numbers, Detroit should have won 6.03 games and Chicago 7.6. The conclusion is the Lions probably overachieved and were set up to do worse, which they did with flying colors, in completing first 0-16 season. The Bears played about as expected given their numbers.

With only 16 games in the regular season, any difference of one or greater is noteworthy.

Another example is Jacksonville in 2006, which finished 8-8, scoring 371 points and giving up 274, a positive difference of 97. Based on the figures, the Jaguars should have won 10.3 games, not eight and they went on to 11-5 record and made the AFC Conference semi-finals in 2007.

What teams meet the criteria for success or failure in 2009? The San Diego Chargers deserved credit for coming back and winning AFC West, though Denver shared equal blame in failing to win. The Chargers garnered 439 points, while permitting 347. This means the Bolts should have won 9.8 games last season, not finishing 8-8. Sportsbook.com has them listed as Ov9.5 wins for the upcoming campaign, which is reasonable wager given the players coming back and change of direction to Phillip Rivers team.

The Green Bay Packers were 6-10, through no fault of Aaron Rodgers, who played beyond most expectations. The Pack was 419 and 380 in points scored and allowed. Using this method of interpretation, Green Bay should have won almost eight games (7.9) and could be poised to surprise in 2009 and surpass the Un9 number posted on them.

Three NFL teams could be poised to fall in 2009. The Indianapolis Colts have made a coaching change as Tony Dungy retired, which means change and the defense will see the biggest alteration. New head coach Jim Caldwell may see a few growing pains, as last year’s 12-4 club projected out at 10.6 victories.

Miami found lightening in a bottle on the way to 11-5 season, after one win the prior season. The Dolphins only had a point differential of +28, which extrapolated out totals 9.4 wins.

Finally, the aforementioned Denver Broncos lost a three game lead with three games to play to blow the division title with unfortunate 8-8 record. That led to the firing of Mike Shanahan and new coach Josh McDaniels poorly handled the Jay Cutler situation, leaving Denver without a franchise-type quarterback and with Kyle Orton. The Broncos -78 point differential was most similar to Seattle (-98) who finished 4-12. Denver’s numbers projected to 6.4 wins and they are listed as Un7 for upcoming season.

I’m not suggesting these plays are rock solid; take them to the bank action. In the time allotted for research completed, this came to make sense with verifiable proof these numbers don’t lie. If you liked any of these teams to begin with, just one more reason to place a wager.

One last thing, if you choose to do some searching of your own, forget about the Tennessee Titans. The expression “all rules don’t apply to everyone” perfectly fits Tennessee with Jeff Fisher as coach. His teams consistently overachieve and they are the newer version of “Just win baby”.

NFL Schedule Thoughts and Info

If you own a business or are in the marketing department of your work place, if you have any extra cash to play with (unlikely I understand), you might want to consider hiring somebody who has worked for the National Football League. Late Tuesday, the NFL released it schedule and by the way the NFL pages on various websites were flooded with information and people commenting, plus the way radio talk shows were hit with calls and reactions, you would have thought E’s “The Girls Next Door” were going to have an episode without clothing.

Make no mistake, it is fun and exciting to look over all the various teams and whom they will play and take a gander at all the prime time matchups. It is however imperative to keep things in perspective, since what is written and understood today will be far different later in the season.

How different you ask, let’s take a trip down memory lane, about 365 days ago. When last year’s schedule came out, Pittsburgh’s was the most difficult. In analyzing their slate, there did not appear to be one game among the 16 they would have breather. For the most part that was true, with Cincinnati and Cleveland being the only teams that were worse than expected. Yet despite the arduous slate, the Steelers almost always found a way to win and ended up winning another Super Bowl.

After pulling off an undefeated regular season, luck fell the way of New England; at least it appeared so, with the Patriots having the easiest schedule. No matter who New England was about to play, everything changed when Tom Brady went down to injury in the opening minutes. After romping thru the AFC East for years, an aging defense and back-up quarterback were nailed twice in division contests in Foxboro, which one could easily reason why Bill Belichick’s team failed to make the playoffs.

Nevertheless, it is fun to speculate what could and might happen since reality will take over starting September 10.

Because of the musical chairs nature of the NFL schedule, formulated by how a team finishes and predetermined out-of-conference opponents, any team that draws a challenging slate one year is not guaranteed to have the easiest the following and vise-versa. To prove there is a higher power, even above the NFL (really there is) the football gods and others brought balance and order to various divisions.

In 2008, the NFC South and AFC East had the easiest schedules to navigate. Five of the eight teams took advantage of their good fortune and improved their record from the previous season. The Patriots could not possibly improve on 16-0 perfection and Tampa Bay and Buffalo ended up the same record as the previous year.

This season the anvil falls. The teams with the eight hardest schedules based on last year’s results, are from the NFC South and AFC East. Miami catches the brunt of the punishment, facing teams that were 152-104, 59.4 percent. Besides the annual confrontations within the division, the Dolphins have the loaded AFC South and the NFC South. Seven of those eight teams were .500 or better and if that isn’t enough piling on, the other two tilts come in Weeks 2 and 3, a Monday night with Indianapolis and short week to make west coast trip to San Diego. Miami will face the third most difficult slate in seven years.

Next is the Carolina Panthers, who awoken last season, being more injury free and captured the NFC South. This year, Carolina takes on teams that were 151-104-1 (59.2 percent). The Panthers change the languishing AFC West for the East in non-conference play and comes out on the short end of surrendering the NFC North for the significantly tougher East. The two extra games are a December Sunday night game against Minnesota and a trip to the desert to take on the Super Bowl experienced Arizona Cardinals, who bounced them out of the postseason. Jake Delhomme or somebody better be able to pass, since the December sked doesn’t lend itself to huge running lanes, facing the Bucs, Patriots, Vikings and Giants in order.

The defending Super Bowl champion Steelers go from the most toilsome, to one of the easiest 16-game schedules, coming in at 29th. In the end, it likely won’t be this simple for Pittsburgh as they will take everybody’s best shot, particularly on the road. Ben Roethlisberger and company gladly give away the NFC East for the NFC North (who doesn’t want to play Detroit) and the AFC West as whole doesn’t look like a group ready for prime time football.

The teams with the three most halcyon appointments later this year all reside in the NFC North. Chicago, Minnesota and Green Bay are thought to be geared towards improvement, though the Lions shouldn’t be the “welcome” mat they were last season. The Bears have a substantial start having to play at Green Bay and hosting Pittsburgh. After that the annual two-pack with Detroit, along with Seattle, Cleveland, Cincinnati and St. Louis, Da Bears should come out of that mix of contests no worse than 5-1, if Jay Cutler is the final piece to Chicago’s puzzle.

Moving on, questions are raised about the importance of trying to determine what schedules mean before a single game is played. One area to dig into is how Super Bowl champions perform the next season. In breaking down the last seven Lombardi trophy winners, there schedule of opponents winning percentage turned out be pretty accurate, after the season, as compared to before the year started. The largest gap was the 2003 Patriots who had the eighth toughest schedule coming in and exited with the 22nd hardest leaving. The difference was 52.7 percent compared to 48.4 percent. For Pittsburgh backers and those seeking an edge, only two of the prior six Super Bowl champions have posted a winning spread record the year after winning the title.

2007 N.Y. Giants 12-4 12-4 ATS
2006 Indianapolis 12-4 8-8 ATS
2005 Pittsburgh 8-8 7-9 ATS
2004 New England 10-6 8-8 ATS
2003 New England 14-2 11-3-2 ATS
2002 Tampa Bay 7-9 6-9-1 ATS

Facing the supposed hardest 16 games does not guarantee failure for betting purposes. Though Miami looks like they will have a full plate, the last dozen teams that went into the year with the most strenuous slate, was 94-90-8 against the spread.

A few sportsbooks will offer props on teams to make the playoffs. If you can find one that lists any of the teams that have the hardest schedule, should you place wager for or against? It would not be wise to book a hotel in South Florida for a Dolphins postseason party, as only four of the last 12 teams that played trying agenda made the playoffs.

Teams that have had the easiest program like Chicago, have only made the playoffs once of the last eight squads trying to work through what was thought to be easier schedule. Only the 2003 Seattle Seahawks at 10-6, made the NFL playoffs. This is a sorry grouping, with 55-73 record and 59-67-2 ATS mark.

A few observations………….

The Atlanta Falcons have a three-game homestand starting in late November and chances are they will need it, after playing four of the previous five in places like Dallas, New Orleans, Carolina and New York (Giants).

It will be traveling time for the G-Men and Seattle this upcoming season. After opening at home against Washington, New York travels to the Cowboys new ball yard and also visits Tampa Bay and Kansas City in consecutive weeks. The Giants catch a bit of break, with the Bucs and Chiefs with new coaching staffs still sorting things out early in the year. The Seahawks sojourn starts the third Sunday in November, which takes then to Arizona, Minnesota and St. Louis, at least no three time zone games.

Do you ever wonder if the Dallas players sometimes wonder what it would be like to be normal? In 2009, they have six specific games that are unique telecasts, not played at 1 of 4:15 Eastern. If you’re good enough it probably doesn’t matter, yet having a constantly disruptive schedule can’t add much stability.

Miami has four prime time games; does this look and smell like Cleveland of last year all over again?

Bill Belichick and his team put the “England” in New England, when they travel to London to face Tampa Bay in late October.

After a fair schedule to open the season, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers will be tested having to take on Baltimore, Chicago and Pittsburgh in weeks 13-15.

The NFL is not too impressed with Tampa Bay this season, after just missing the playoffs last and being division champs the previous year, every game starts at 1 or just after 4 Eastern.

Remember how poorly West Coast teams performed in Eastern Time Zone last year, well because of schedule changes, there is only six such games the first nine weeks of the season.

Friday April 3 plays at 3Daily Winners

Thought it was ironic Jay Cutler gets traded when his name comes up here. Overall, I think Denver helped themselves more, now having a ton of draft choices to play with and rebuild defense. I don’t think the Broncos are done on the quarterback front either, I could see them doing something with Cleveland or Arizona on or just before the draft to have another quarterback.

The trade makes sense for Chicago, since they haven’t had a potential Top 5 quarterback since god knows when, what makes this interesting is Bears football has never been about the quarterback. Granted, a bad one has held them back, but they have had numerous playoff trips with ones that were just above average.

No above average system today in the NBA, coming in at 82.9 percent over a lengthy period of time. The Cavs and Magic matchup which is detailed below has Top Trend that has yet to lose. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY AGAINST home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Indiana in non-conference games, off a close home win by three points or less. This system is 29-6 ATS, 82.9 percent since Independence Day was the top-grossing movie of that year.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Cleveland Cavaliers are 12-0 ATS off a road loss this season.

Free Basketball Selection -3) I'm as hot as anybody in the NBA having hit 16 of last 22 and one of my plays is Charlotte -4.

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Packers Underdogs in Windy (Frigid) City

Who would’ve guessed Green Bay’s defense would struggle more than its offense in its first season without Brett Favre since 1992? The Packers are on pace to allow more than 400 points for first time since 1986, and in their nine defeats this season they’ve yielded an average of 24.2 points per game.

While most Cheeseheads have moved on about the trade of Favre to the Jets, they can’t blame Aaron Rodgers for what has been a miserable 5-9 season. Rodgers has completed 63.5 percent of his passes for 3,470 yards and 23 touchdowns with 12 interceptions. It all adds up to a quarterback rating better than 90, ranking him in the top 10 among those with at least 10 starts. He’s had eight multiple touchdown games and two multiple interception games. Green Bay comes into this contest having covered 12 of last 16 NFC North division contests.

But it takes one hand to count how many times both Rodgers, and his defense, clicked in the same game. One of those was Nov. 16 when Green Bay blew out Chicago, 37-3, at Lambeau Field, creating a three-way tie atop the NFC North along with Minnesota. Rodgers completed 23 of 30 attempts for 227 yards and hooked up with Greg Jennings and Donald Lee for touchdowns, and the Packers defense allowed only 234 yards and a second-quarter field goal. They even scored without Rodgers on the field, with defensive end Jason Hunter returning a Kyle Orton fumble 54 yards for a touchdown.

The Packers are 0-4 SU and ATS since that victory, and the Bears are 3-1 since the loss, with three covers. Chicago’s come-from-behind 27-24 overtime win over New Orleans at Soldier Field last Thursday night was clutch and kept alive its playoff hopes. After tying the game with two seconds left in regulation, Robbie Gould won it with a 35-yard field goal. At 8-6, head coach Lovie Smith’s team can tie Minnesota for the division lead with a win, but needs to win this week and next and have the Vikings lose to win the division crown. The Bears are 10-1 ATS in home games revenging a road loss against opponent by 14 points or more.

The biggest red flag for the Bears in 2008 has been their pass defense, which was also a problem area a year ago. Chicago has allowed 3,271 yards through the air and rank ahead of only Kansas City, San Diego, the New York Jets and Seattle in the category. This could be diminished since temperatures are expected to be brutally cold in the Windy City, making the ability to overcome the elements for each player a bigger story.

Bookmaker.com has Chicago has four-point favorites, down from opening six, with the total having plummeted like the temperature from 45 to 40. The Bears lead 89-80-6 and haven’t been swept by the Packers since 2003. Though the weather will be a factor, Green Bay is 11-2 OVER after three or more consecutive losses and the Bears are 17-4 OVER as a home favorite.

Green Bay covers if they can control the Chicago running attack, which can be a stretch for the 26th ranked run defense. If the Packers are to do anything defensively, they must limit the Bears rushing game. The Green Bay defense really needs to find out if they have any linebackers that can blitz, as their defensive backfield has been getting torched having to play man coverage for such extended periods. Besides at 5-9, why not try and at least spoil a rivals playoff chances. The Pack is 8-1 ATS in a road game where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points

Chicago covers if their physical offensive line gets a push on the Green Bay defensive line. In the prior meeting, this didn’t happen. Assuredly coach Smith and the staff won’t make the decision to stop the Packers passing exclusively and got pushed around for 200 rushing yards like last time. Chicago has to stop the run first and see how Rodgers reacts in the bitter cold conditions on the road. The Bears are still in the playoff hunt, they must bring the emotion or they could fall to 5-12 ATS at Soldier Field against the Green and Gold.

This week’s Monday Night system is to play on division favorites of seven or less points that have won two games consecutively. Over the last 19 years, this system is 26-8 ATS, 76.4 percent.

NFL Sunday Best Wagering Options

A so-so 2-2 Saturday, but a profitable 4-3 week in college football overall. Today we have a NFL System that supports a super-sized underdog, which is 22-3, 88 percent. The Top Trend takes us to the Windy City, literally I hear, for Da Bears and Da Titans. Sal from the Left Coast Connection is back and doing well and has his Best Bet for Free. Good Luck.

Free Football System-1) PLAY ON road teams after one or more consecutive wins against the spread, who are a terrible team, winning 25 percent or less of their games, in the second half of the season. This system is 22-3 ATS, 88 percent and it doesn’t take a genius to figure out this team is Kansas City.

Free Football Trend -2) The Chicago Bears are 2-14 ATS after scoring 25 points or more in two straight games.

Free Football Selection -3) We haven’t heard much from Sal of the LCC lately and he is one 12-5 run in the NFL and is playing Atlanta Falcons today as his personal best bet.

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