MLB Series Wagering- Boston at Philadelphia

It is still a week before Memorial Day holiday weekend but a matchup of the Red Sox and Phillies invokes thoughts of postseason baseball. These two squads have become synonymous when one thinks about baseball in October with their recent history of success and World Series titles. Because of proximity, Major League Baseball has made this an annual meeting and while it won’t carry the media weight of the New York subway series, the baseball itself is arguably better, given the talent of the clubs.

Philadelphia (25-15, +2.6 units) is again perched atop the NL East, leading the league in offense at 5.5 runs per game. If the Phillies have one weakness, it’s the American League. Forget losing to the Yankees in the Fall Classic, Philadelphia has issues in the regular season. The Phils are 10-23 the last two seasons when matched against the AL and have lost five consecutive series to Boston and are 4-14 taking on the Red Sox.

Boston (22-20, -4) is not in panic mode (at least not the front office), however they do have serious concerns. The Red Sox are in fourth place in the highly competitive AL East and are 8.5 games back of front-running Tampa Bay already. Boston has had their share of injuries to players like Mike Cameron and Jacoby Ellsbury, being out of the lineup.

Nevertheless, the BoSox are averaging 5.2 runs per game, which is third in the AL and sixth on the majors, however upon closer inspection they have been held to three runs or less 17 times. Compare that to Philadelphia who has 13 such occurrences and the Rays with 12. Using the other two division leaders as a benchmark, that is four or five potential swing games that could have been victories due to offensive ineffectiveness.

Boston has been one of the best interleague teams with a 38-20 record the last three seasons and sends John Lackey (4-2, 4.86 ERA) to the mound for Game 1. Lackey’s been hit hard, allowing 11 runs in 13 innings his last two starts vs. Detroit and Toronto. He’ll look to get back on track and Lackey is 19-5 UNDER in interleague action (team’s record) with average runs scored against him of 2.8 per contest.

Sportsbooks have Philadelphia as -141 money line favorites with total Ov9 and gives the ball to Cole Hamels (4-2, 4.29). Hamels has won his previous two starts and looks to make it three in a row for the first time in three years. The lefthander has been attempting to build his arsenal, adding a cutter. “I’m still learning when to throw it and how to throw it,” Hamels said. “It’s something that’s (based on) feel. It took me a year or two years to learn how to get the feel of the changeup.”

The Phillies will look to change ways for backers that enjoy sports betting, since they are 1-8 at home when the American League comes calling, yet are 12-1 at Citizens Bank Park after allowing four runs or less five straight games over the last three seasons.

Game 1 Edge: Boston

This series will also feature hitters that are swinging the bat. The Sox J.D. Drew is batting .333 in his last 24 contests after slow start and has 17 RBI’s in previous 19 games. Second baseman Dustin Pedroia owns a .356 average in interleague play, which is the best all-time among players with at least 150 at-bats.

Placido Polanco has been a great fit for Philadelphia, especially at home, where he is batting .349 on the season. With him on base so frequently this sets up numerous RBI chances for Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. This is important since the Phillies are 20-6 when they score first and 5-9 when they don’t.

The middle game pitching matchup has Daisuke Matsuzaka (2-1, 7.89) facing Kyle Kendrick (2-1, 5.24). Dice-K has made four starts and in three of them has given up the one big inning which has been his demise. He needs to keep his level of concentration up like in the past, where he and his teammates are 8-2 as visitors against clubs with winning records.

Kendrick was on his game is last start, eight innings and two runs permitted against Pittsburgh. The right-hander has 2.57 ERA in his last three starts and his club is 5-1 when he’s on the mound at home.

Game 2 Edge: Philadelphia

The final encounter of the series looks like a complete mismatch. Veteran knuckleballer Tim Wakefield (0-2, 5.31) will step into the starting rotation for Josh Beckett who is on the DL with lower back strain. Wakefield hasn't won a game since July 8, 2009, but don’t blame him entirely, as he left a contest on four separate occasions with the lead, only to see his Sox teammates cough it up. Oddly, Boston is 2-9 in day games this season.

Philly looks for the doctor to make everything better. Roy “Doc” Halladay (6-2, 1.64) hasn’t given up a home run in over 32 innings, but is coming off a complete game in which he made 132 pitches. The Phillies are 9-6 under natural light, however this might not be as easy as it looks since Halladay is 14-14 with a 4.28 ERA vs. Boston in his career.

This is the TBS Sunday afternoon contest at 1:35 Eastern.

Game 3 Edge: Philadelphia

My predictions for series haven’t been very stellar and it’s not a good idea to bet against a streak, yet the Phillies are due for bust out and would be expected to show personal pride. They have the advantage in two of the pitching matchups, with the opener a tossup and this Boston team has not shown to be as good as recent models. Here is a somewhat shaky vote for Philadelphia to end series drought over the Red Sox.

Series odds: Boston +170, Philadelphia -220

3Daily Winners Pick: Philadelphia

2010 Record – 2-4

MLB 's Best and Worst Pitcher in April

Gave our friend Marc Lawrence a call to talk a little baseball and see what he is up to with college basketball windowing closing. We got talking about the importance of starting pitchers and bullpens when it comes to wagering on the big leagues. We both agreed you can’t win the pennant in April but you can certainly lose it with a sluggish start and weaknesses exposed.

At Marc’s Playbook.com, he has for the last several years compiled a list of good and bad pitchers per month and he shared that list with me. Below is the complete list, along with why each of them performs in this manner.

APRIL GOOD MONTH PITCHERS:
Beckett, Josh 10-4
Buehrle, Mark 10-3
Greinke, Zach 10-5
Hernandez, Felix 10-4
Hudson, Tim 8-3
Looper, Braden 12-3
Matsuzaka, Daisuke 8-4
Moyer, Jamie 10-5
Penny, Brad 10-4
Saunders, Joe 11-3
Wainwright, Adam 11-4
Webb, Brandon 11-1

BAD MONTH PITCHERS:
Arroyo, Bronson 5-10
Zito, Barry 4-10

Arroyo – Throws strikes and changes speeds on his fastball continually. Likes to mix in changeup and eats up a number of innings. He is more a feel pitcher and with the colder weather in the opening month, the baseball tends to be slicker which doesn’t give him as much command, explaining his slow starts.

Beckett- Power pitcher with drop and drive delivery. His strength is low to mid-90’s fastball with one of the best curveball’s in baseball.

Buehrle – Doesn’t impress many radar guns topping out around 87 MPH, but is expert at working both sides of the plate and like most left-handers has tailing fastball to right-hand batters. Changeup and slow curve makes fastball appear quicker.

Greinke – Skill and ability finally meshed as Greinke started last season 6-0 in 2-009 with late-1960’s Bob Gibson-like like ERA of 0.40. Tremendous arm, with a real feel for how to pitch, who put it all together to be AL Cy Young winner in 2009 on a bad ballclub.

Hernandez –Still only 23 years old, King Felix has mid-90 fastball and superior breaking pitches. He also a heavy sinker that batters have said is like “swinging and hitting a bowling ball”. That’s a pitch most hitter’s don’t want to swing at when the temps are in the 30’s and 40’s.

Hudson – Coming off Tommy John surgery, interesting to see how he starts.

Looper- Last reported as free agent.

Matsuzaka – Has neck injury rehabbing.

Moyer – Internet reports of Moyer being a rookie learning to pitch from Christy Mathewson (google this name) are unfound, as the lefty continues to confound batters with slow, slower and slower yet pitches, being able to spot them where needed.

Penny –The big right-hander could not have found a better place to resurrect his career. Working with pitching guru Dave Duncan should be a blessing for this flyball pitcher. Duncan will work with Penny not to overthrow and improve slow breaking pitches.

Saunders – Lost ability to work down and inside on right-hand batters and was tattooed frequently last season. Historically, fast starter and needs to for confidence reason on Angels club that needs him more this season.

Wainwright – The last two seasons has been among the best pitchers in all of baseball. Helps himself by being good hitter and won Golden Glove for fielding.

Webb – Out indefinitely coming back from shoulder surgery.

Zito – Similar to Arroyo, doesn’t throw hard, but not as good at spotting pitches. Has big loopy curveball that is batting practice material if it doesn’t break to the knees. Can sail along for four innings and give up a five-spot in a manner of minutes.

MLB Series Wagering- Rangers at Red Sox

The Texas Rangers maintain their lead in the American League West and to stay in the same spot, they will have to whether one of the roughest periods on the schedule. The Rangers just lost two out of three to the Yankees and are spending three days in New England to take on Boston, before heading home to play four with Toronto and a series next weekend against currently the best team in baseball, the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Texas (31-22, +10.7 units) is going to have to do this without one of its big sluggers, Josh Hamilton. He was placed on the disabled list Tuesday with a sports hernia and could miss up to two months or more if it requires surgery. Hamilton is currently resting and taking anti-flammatory medications in the hope he will be able to return in a more normal fashion from the DL. The talented centerfielder was not having a 130-rbi year like last season; nevertheless he’s an important cog in the Texas lineup and will be missed.

The Rangers arrive in Boston with 49-26 record having lost two of their last three games; however Fenway Park gives them the chills. Texas has lost eight in a row and nine of 11 at the venerable ball yard and will send Kevin Millwood (4-4, 3.23 ERA) to try his luck. Millwood came into camp in the best shape in years and has been more productive than wins and losses indicate. He is 10th in the AL in ERA and is 3-1 lifetime at Fenway. DiamondSportsbook.com has Texas as +125 underdog to Brad Penny (5-1, 5.63) and Boston.

The Red Sox (32-22, +4.4 units) are riding four-game winning streak and are 17-6 at home this season. With the total listed Ov10, that would seem to favor Boston who is 30-6 on home turf when the number is 10 or higher. Conversely, Millwood and the Rangers are 5-17 on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last two seasons.

Game 1 Edge: Boston

Manager Terry Francona’s club feels pretty confident coming into this series. They had just completed 6-4 road trip and swept division leader Detroit, which gave them a tie atop the AL East with New York. This does not suggest everything is well in Red Sox nation. David Ortiz continues to hit about 30 or more pounds below his weight, with .187 batting average and will have his eyes tested. Kevin Youkilis was stepped on at first base, making him day to day for this series with bad calf. What has saved the Red Sox is starting pitching. As this weekend series begins, the Boston starters have 2.01 ERA in last five contests and when backed up with bullpen that has Major League best 2.86 earned run average, if the Red Sox could score just four runs, they will be difficult to beat.

The BoSox are 18-3 vs. AL teams scoring 5.2 or more runs a game on the season and will start Jon Lester (4-5, 5.65). The left-hander has been inconsistent, but is coming off career-high 12 strikeouts in his last start, a win over Toronto. Over six innings, Lester allowed one run on three hits and he and his teammates are 23-5 at Fenway.

Texas will counter with Derek Holland (1-2, 6.33). The 23-year old was brought up from the minors when injuries hit the Rangers starting staff. Holland physically matured a year ago and solved a few mechanical issues and throws true Texas heat. On the radar gun, mid-90’s is common and upper 90’s is not unusual. His future lies in ability to develop curveball that could make his power starter or power reliever. He’s made two starts and is 0-1 with 6.75 ERA and Boston is 12-4 against lefties. The Rangers on the other hand are 19-39 vs. southpaws.

Game 2 Edge: Boston

The final game of the series will have two veteran pitchers, trying to find their way in 2009. Vincente Padilla (3-3, 5.57) thought he was on his way in May with three razor-sharp performances, surrendering five runs total, in picking up three victories. He was then felled by strained right shoulder, which landed him on DL and in his first start back was clocked for seven runs in 3 2/3 innings. Maybe the light of day will help, since Padilla and Texas are 4-1 when he pitches day ball, with matching record as underdog this season.

Daisuke Matsuzaka (1-3, 7.17) finally broke into the win column in his last outing, allowing one run over five innings against Detroit. The right-hander walked three and struck out six. Matsuzaka has been taxing on the bullpen, having pitched into the sixth inning just once in 2009. Based on both pitchers current form, this could be high scoring affair, though the oddsmakers have taken into account both teams daytime activities and they are combined 20-18-1 UNDER when playing in the afternoon.

Game 3 Edge: Texas

Thus far, the picks have been lousy at best and twice talked myself out of the right plays. This won’t happen this week. Boston owns Texas at Fenway and has favorable pitching matchups in first two games and is playing with more confidence. The Red Sox can mash with Texas and is 10-2 vs. good power teams, averaging 1.25 or more home runs per game this year. Boston is the play.

DiamondSportsbook.com series odds: Texas +190, Boston -250

3DW Pick: Boston

2009 Record – 2-5

Detroit has something to prove

If you’ve been following the American League in 2009, you’ve noticed Boston and New York have played about as expected. Though they had recent losing streak, Toronto is in the mix of good teams in the league and Texas has started surprising well in leading the AL West. One team that gathered few headlines is the Detroit Tigers and that is just fine with skipper Jim Leyland.

After a splashy introduction in 2006, which led to World Series appearance, Detroit and Leyland have misfired the last two seasons with higher expectations. This year, the Tigers sacrificed offense for defense at a couple of positions and their pitching has improved markedly.

Detroit (28-21, +5.8 units) is atop the AL Central, with an offense that still scores plenty of run, totaling 5.2 per game. With a 15-7 record at Comerica Park, these Tigers have had plenty in the tank in scoring six runs per contest at home. Despite missing pitchers like Jeremy Bonderman as starter, others have stepped up like Rick Porcello (6-3, 3.48 ERA, 1.200 WHIP). The 20-year old was the prize of the farm system and after a rocky beginning, the right-hander has settled in and a big reason for Detroit’s early season success.

Porcello throws a fastball, sinker and curve and was 5-0, with 1.50 ERA in May, the first Detroit rookie to win five games in the second month of the season in 55 years. I’ve had a couple of starts now and I’m able to settle in a little better out there and focus. And all the jitters are kind of gone,” Porcello said. “I think I’m getting a little more comfortable with each start.”

Detroit welcomes the challenge of Boston (29-22, +1.2 units) for three game series. The Tigers are 10-1 at home against teams with winning records. This is the final stop on the Red Sox 10-game road trip and they are 3-4 thus far, with an overall 12-16 mark as visitors. That plays to Detroit’s advantage with 6-2 record on home turf versus teams with losing road records.

Boston’s offense is as potent as Detroit’s just not on the road this season. The Red Sox also average 5.2 PRG, but fall off dramatically on the road to 4.4. Manager Terry Francona’s team typically excels versus high scoring teams, with 17-3 record against AL teams scoring 5.2 or more RPG and they are 19-5 on the road after a day off the last three years.

Daisuke Matsuzaka (0-3, 8.82, 2.237) has not come close to resembling the pitcher Boston fans are used to seeing. Matsuzaka’s control and command has been an issue, walking 10 batters in just over 16 innings, while being hit rather easily, allowing 28 base hits. In his last outing, Matsuzaka uncorked four wild pitches. He is 3-1 with a 2.81 ERA in four career starts against Detroit; including his only career complete game.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Tigers as -129 money line favorites, with total Un9.5. When Matsuszaka is in typical form, Boston is 10-1 UNDER on the road when the total is 8.5 to 10 since last season. The Red Sox have taken last 22 of 31 Game 1’s, but are only 1-4 as recent underdog. Detroit has flourished as favorites with 13-3 mark and is 15-3-1 UNDER off a victory.

This matchup starts at 7:05 Eastern and is available to be seen in local markets. This is first meeting between these clubs in 2009, with Detroit 4-3 the last couple of years hitting with the last at bat.

Having to pitch with purpose

It is way too early for Major League baseball teams to hit the panic button; however it is not too early to start turning season around if your team is off to a slow start. Then there is a team like the Los Angeles Angels who play on the road for the first time and the starting pitcher is someone very different from who was expected to be taking the mound a week ago.

Its opening day in Seattle (5-2, +3.9 units), who has played fantastic baseball on the road. The Mariners have a four-game winning streak after sweeping Oakland and have managed to start fast even without Ichiro Suzuki who will join the team tomorrow from the DL, after suffering a bleeding ulcer.

Seattle is abuzz because “The Kid’ is back, as Ken Griffey Jr. returns in a Seattle uniform. The Mariners will face division rival Los Angeles (3-3, +0.2) and they will be starting Shane Loux. The 29-year right-hander hasn’t taken the ball to start a game in six years and has the added pressure of taking the spot of departed Nick Adenhart. The Angels are -110 money line favorites at Bookmaker.com, with total Ov9.5. The Halos are 26-10 after five or more consecutive home games and will face Carlos Silva (0-1, 10.80 ERA), who is 6-19 after giving up two or more home runs in last outing. (Team's Record) Seattle has lost 13 of 19 to Angels at Safeco Field.

After four miserable years in New York, Carl Pavano was seeking a new lease on life and a baseball pay check and hooked up with Cleveland (1-6, -5.8). To call Pavano’s first start rough would be an understatement since his ERA is one number higher (81) than what former Cleveland Brown Kellen Winslow wore last season (80). Pavano needed only 39 pitches to allow nine runs, six hits and walk three, last Thursday in Texas in loss. The Indians lumbering start makes them 13-21 in April the last two years and the pitching staff has been battered for 7.9 runs per game. They will look to avoid a second straight loss to Kansas City (4-3, +1.6) as +140 ML underdogs, facing a Royals club that is 17-5 in home games vs. teams outscored by a half a run or more a game on the season.

Right-hander Daisuke Matsuzaka (0-1, 6.75 ERA) suffered just three losses in 29 starts in 2008 and his team needs for him to not take another defeat early in the season. The Red Sox (2-5, -5.2) haven’t done much right to begin the season, as pitchers have been slapped around for 5.3 runs per game and offense is checking in at paltry 3.4 runs per game. Last year’s AL MVP Dustin Pedroia is well below the Mendoza line, hitting .179 and power source David Ortiz has yet to lace an extra base hit. Boston was busted up by Oakland 8-2 last evening and is 20-8 in road games after a loss by four runs or more and hopes Matsuzaka can duplicate prior efforts, with the Red Sox 12-2 in road tilts in which he started. The BoSox are -150 money line favs at Oakland to even series.

Arizona was set up to capitalize on the early season, playing 18 of first 21 games at Chase Field. A 2-5 (-4.7) beginning means the Diamondbacks will need a quick turnaround and turn to Max Scherzer to spin year around. Scherzer throws heat and if he commands his slider, he can be every bit as dominant as his major league debut in which he retired all 13 batters with seven strikeouts. Arizona isn’t doing much on offense scoring 3.4 run per game and takes on St. Louis (6-2, +2.8), being 23-38 against a team with a winning record. The Cardinals have Cris Carpenter (1-0, 0.00 ERA) back, who only pitched just over 21 innings in last two years, before throwing seven in 2-1 victory over Pittsburgh last week. The Cardinals are -140 ML favorites with total Un9, which is worth watching as Carpenter and the Cards are 10-0 UNDER vs. NL teams scoring 3.8 or less runs a game on the season.