MLB Series Wagering- Rockies at Giants

It may not be “How the West was won” but for San Francisco, it’s a critical weekend to get back into the wild card race in the National League. With 34 games remaining, the Giants trail Colorado by three games for the last playoff spot in the senior circuit. Last week San Francisco (69-59, +10 units) lost three of four near the foothills of the Rocky Mountains and cannot afford a similar fate or postseason dreams could be washed out to sea by the Bay.

Manager Bruce Boche has the pitching aligned exactly how he wants it to give San Francisco its best chance of winning. In order, its Tim Lincecum, Barry Zito and Matt Cain, this at least sounds daunting for Colorado. Lincecum (12-4, 2.43 ERA) lost last Sunday at Colorado 4-2, giving up room service pitch for home run and walking a season high five batters. Last year’s Cy Young winner is 4-0 with a sterling 1.36 ERA at AT&T Park in his last six outings and the Giants are 8-3 when the right-hander is pitching on four days rest.

Colorado (72-56, +12.6 units) has to quickly put behind the disappointment of losing series to front-running Los Angeles and refocus on the task at hand. The Rockies are 17-9 in August road games the last couple of years and have what they believe is the right pitcher to combat Lincecum in Ubaldo Jimenez (12-9, 3.36). The righthander has pitched a minimum of eight innings in four of his last five starts, not allowing more than two runs and winning each game. He relishes the challenge of facing “The Freak”.

“I love challenges," Jimenez said. "I'm positive when I have a challenge. I can't wait to be in that position. Hopefully, everything's going to be OK this time." Jimenez has made nine straight starts allowing three or fewer runs and Colorado is 21-6 on the road against a right-hand starter.

DiamondSportsbook.com has the Giants as -125 money line favorites, with the total Un6.5. San Fran is 8-2 when Lincecum pitches as a favorite and has won 41 of last 58 in favorite role. The Rockies have won just one of last seven as an underdog and are 7-20 when Jimenez is pitching as road dog and 1-5 if the opponent has winning record.

Game 1 Edge: San Francisco

San Francisco knew coming into the season, they would have to build this team around pitching and defense and the front office has been prophetic. The Giants are 14th in the National League scoring runs, a paltry four runs per game. Nobody knows this better than Barry Zito (8-11, 4.09). Though Zito has been criticized and dismissed as a non-talent more than Heidi Montag, this season Zito has looked like the pitcher the Giants spent 126 million for several seasons ago. In his last eight starts, the lefty has ERA of 2.08, yet is just 3-2, as he has received the poorest run support in the NL at just under three runs a game. Zito made a decision to stop worrying about avoiding bats and instead has gone after hitters, which has paid dividends for a pitcher needing confidence. The Giants have won five of his last six starts at home.

Colorado counters with Jason Marquis (14-8, 3.47), making this a rematch from Monday, when neither starting pitcher figured in decision. Marquis has ended being a key acquisition for the Rockies, pitching well when they were still trying to settle in and rock solid once they turned the corner playing outstanding baseball. Colorado comes into the series 52-25 in last 77 outings and they are 8-2 when Marquis faces a club with winning record.

Game 2 Edge: Colorado

As if things aren’t hard enough for San Fran, the status of their top two hitters Pablo Sandoval and Bengie Molina is day to day for this series. The Giants could certainly use them for the final game of the series, which is afternoon affair. San Francisco is 24-19 playing matinees and will have Matt Cain (12-4, 2.39) taking the ball. It easy to be judgmental and see Cain hasn’t won a game since July 24, yet he has 2.72 ERA in that span and allowed 36 hits in 46 1/3 innings, with 4-to-1 strikeout to walk ratio. The Giants are raising cane on opponents at home when Cain pitches with 11-2 record and they are 13-4 when favored. The Rockies will use Jason Hammel (8-7, 4.43) who pitches dramatically better away from Coors Field. Hammel is 6-4 on the road with 2.88 ERA, thought the team is .500 (6-6). Colorado is 25-18 in day ball and un-Rockies like 36-30 coming into the series on the road.

Game 3 Edge: San Francisco

Had my four series winning streak snapped last week, however feel good about this week’s selection. As good as Colorado has been since Jim Tracy took over as skipper, San Francisco could have just as easily won three of four last week in Denver. Sporting a National League-best 41-21 home record, the Giants are the play this weekend to close the gap in wild card race.

DiamondSportsbook.com series odds: Colorado +120, San Francisco -150

3DW Pick: San Francisco

2009 Record – 7-10

Why can’t San Fransisco win on the road?

You’ll have to forgive the San Francisco if they are feeling a little giddy at the moment. This team came into the 2009 season looking to rid itself of an overbearing shadow (Barry Bonds) and build a new foundation based on pitching and fielding with younger players. Everything has essentially gone according to plan except for one element, the Giants are tied for the wild card lead after winning three of four at home against the World Series champion Philadelphia Phillies, who have the best road in baseball.

San Francisco has the best home record in the game at 37-16 (+20.4 units). Unless the Giants are going win there remaining 28 games at AT&T Park, they are going to have to pick up the pace on the road.

The Giants travel to Houston (52-53, +1.3 units) for a three game set and they are 21-31 (-6.8 units) wearing the road uniforms. Most team’s offense will sag on the road, which is particularly dangerous for manager Bruce Bochy’s club, since they only score 3.9 runs per game to start. As visitors, the Giants are last in the National League (29th in baseball) in runs scored at 3.4 per game.

Brian Sabean is the San Francisco general manager, who tried to milk the Bond’s era for every late drop and not enough every day ball players have come up through the Giants system that are productive. The farm system hasn’t been completely barren, with hitting-machine Pablo Sandoval and Nate Schierholtz having very good breakout seasons.

Though AT&T Park is believed to be pitcher’s park, it’s the Giants pitchers and extensive center field area that lends itself to that belief. Balls hit straight away to right or left field and towards the lines, travel the same as anywhere else. If anything, San Francisco should score more runs, not less on the road.

The conundrum is more varied and is brought out in other numbers. Giants’ hitters are next to last in the Major Leagues in extra base hits and home runs on the road. They are far from a patient group in visiting uniforms, averaging only two walks per game (30th) and have little speed, with a manger not inclined towards the running game, ranked 12th in stolen bases in the senior circuit.

What the Giants do have is pitching and lots of hit. Led by Tim Lincecum, San Francisco can mow down opposing batters. They lead the NL in ERA, complete games (9) and shutouts (15). There infielders don’t receive as much action as other teams, however they get plenty of practice throwing the ball around the infield, since Giants hurlers strikeout the most batters.
One big turnaround pitcher has been Matt Cain (12-2, 2.12 ERA). After years of being a play against pitcher because he always had that one bad inning, Cain has been brilliant, and is coming off nine shutouts innings against Pittsburgh last Wednesday. The Giants have won 16 of his 21 starts in 2009.

DiamondSportsbook.com has made the Giants a -133 money line road favorite and Cain and company are 11-1 as a favorite of -110 or higher this season. They will face Mike Hampton (6-8, 5.36) and the Astros in series lid-lifter. Hampton has been rocked in last three starts with ERA of almost 10. Though San Fran is 17-11 against left-hand starters, Hampton has given them trouble during his career. The veteran lefty has owned certain teams like Pittsburgh, whom he’s picked up half his wins against this season, with the Giants not to far behind. He’s 15-4 with a 3.59 ERA in 23 career starts vs San Francisco and Houston heats up like the Texas weather in August, with 22-10 record the last couple of seasons.

This contest is an 8:05 Eastern start at Minute Maid Park and will be available for viewing in local markets. One last thing to worry about the Giants, they are 1-6 in last seven visits to Houston.

Can you trust these money-making baseball hurlers?

Each baseball season, we learn by following who are the best pitchers in baseball. We’ve become conditioned to look for names like Roy Halladay, Josh Beckett, Johan Santana, Tim Lincecum, C.C. Sabathia and others. Most years, pitchers targeted for greatness also put it all together and this year we have seen Zack Greinke, Chad Billingsley and Dan Haren to name a few become dominate, with bright futures ahead of them.

With success come overvalued money lines, as oddsmakers smell opportunity and will make sports bettors pay to play on their favorite pitchers with proven track records. A big time pitcher like Halladay has 10-1 record and Toronto has won 10 of his 14 starts, yet baseball bettors have walked away with a mere +2.7 units of profit backing the Blue Jays chucker.

A far simpler method of seeking tidy sums of money is to follow what pitchers have brought in the most money. For example, does it make sense to take the Top 5 pitchers in units won and bet those toeing the rubber and their respective team’s until they prove they are not worthy of our money? Or are these pitchers such a crap shoot, that from start to start they are unpredictable as to what type of outcome they will provide?

Here is a look at the best five pitchers in the game and what their prospects are in terms of future playability.

At the ripe old age of 29, Matt Palmer (6-1, 8-2 team record, +9.1 units) made his way onto major league roster in San Francisco and started three games for Giants with 0-2 record and ERA of 8.53 last season. Palmer made his way south to join the Los Angeles Angels and was ticketed for more minor league duty. The Angels pitching staff was a quandary in the spring and Palmer showed enough to be a starter. Working with pitching coach John Butcher, Palmer became more consistent in throwing strikes and has been hitting his spots while changing speeds.

Palmer has kept the Halos in games and has been the beneficiary of good offensive outings, as Los Angeles has scored four or more runs in all but one of his starts. Palmer has been up to the pitching challenge, having faced the ace of opposing team in seven of his 10 starts. You can’t help but wonder if the right-hander is enjoying his proverbial 15 minutes of fame. Right-hand hitters are batting just .223 against him; however history is not on his side arriving in the bigs so late in his career.

Betting- Consider mostly home starts at -125 or less

Josh Johnson (7-1, 12-3, +8.9 units) is mountain of a man at 6’7, 230 pounds for Florida. The 25-year old is blossoming into quite a pitcher, be it relative obscurity. Johnson’s fastball of 92-96 looks faster because of his size and downhill angle. He’s become proficient of going up the ladder (low pitches early in the count and moving up later) and has power slider. His mental makeup comes thru, as he and the Marlins are 5-1 on the road and perfect 5-0 as underdogs. Night vision goggles required for opposing hitters, with 1.74 ERA after dark.

Betting – Strong play as present time

In the last few years, if you wanted to make money, it was bet against the Giants with Matt Cain (9-1, 11-3, +8.2 units) pitching. The 24-year old former first round pick, either received little run support, or had one bad inning that resulted in too many 5-4 or 3-2 losses. He’s been everyone’s favorite play against pitcher, until this season. With a reduction of weight in the off-season, his four-seam fastball is more in the mid-90’s and tailing two-seamer has been lower in the strike zone, resulting in fewer fly balls. He’s better than 2-to-1 strikeout to walk ratio for the first time in three years and has more pitched games with two or less walks then in the past. Still has big upside, if he keeps command and wants to thrive as strong No.2 with Lincecum.

Betting – Terrific play as favorite with San Fran 9-1.

To give you an idea of how long Tim Wakefield has played Major League baseball, the year he came up “Aladdin” was the top grossing movie (1992). Back then, Wakefield probably messed around throwing a knuckleball with his teammates in jest. In about six weeks, Wakefield (9-3, 11-3, +7.9 units) will be 43 years old and he’s been a god-send for Boston with an ineffective Daisuke Matsuzaka and John Smoltz finally making the active roster. Nothing has really changed for Wakefield’s fluttering pitch, other than the fact he’s seen Red Sox hitters pound out six or more runs in nine of his 14 starts.

Betting – Red Sox are 7-0 at Fenway with Wakefield tossing, nonetheless hard to support at much more than -160 at home.

Here’s a rarity, Jason Marquis (9-4, 10-4, +7.3 units) admits he likes pitching at Coors Field. The traveled right-hander took the right attitude and embraced pitching in the Colorado Mountains and he along with newfound teammates are 5-2 at home or on the road. Granted his ERA and WHIP are decidedly higher at home, but that is to be expected. Since being hammered in the middle of May by Houston (nine runs), Marquis has surrender four or less runs in last seven starts. He’s been much more effective during the day with 2.93 ERA compared 4.33 under the lights.

Betting – Other then 2005, when Marquis was 15-7 in St. Louis, little reason to believe he will keep pitching this well unless the Rockies score seven runs a game. He is however worth a look as underdog with 6-1 mark. (Rockies record)

Baseball Betting info you can use

The Florida Marlins swept Toronto on the road over the weekend and are 4-2 in interleague play in 2009. The Marlins are the top OVER team in baseball at 35-27-3 (56.5 percent) and have a number of atypical numbers that should get every sports bettor thinking. The Fish lead Major League baseball in striking out the most and their pitchers strike out the most batters, adding to natural air conditioning at Landshark Stadium when Florida is home or playing away games.

Florida’s home stadium is considered an almost neutral ballpark for hitters and pitchers, yet Marlins relievers have 5.78 ERA at home and 1.98 ERA on the road. The Florida bullpen has blown eight of 14 save attempts in the home white uniforms yet have converted eight of nine in traveling grays.

With so much talk in recent years about the importance of a quality bullpen, what gets lost is what solid starting staff can do for a team. The San Francisco Giants had the oldest team in baseball and knew they had to become younger and restock the farm system after years of trying to surround Barry Bonds with veteran players trying to win division titles. The strength of the team had become its young starting pitching, with the likes of Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain.

The everyday lineup would become a work in progress; nevertheless, playing in a pitcher’s park, pitching and defense would have to carry the Giants for now. San Fran is the fifth best bet in baseball at +6.1 units and 34-29 on the year. They have accomplished this despite being 28th in runs scored and on-base percentage and dead last in home runs (36).

The laid-back Lincecum (6-1, 2.66 ERA, 1.17 WHIP) has pitched about as expected and Cain, after dropping some weight, has really come into his own (9-1, 2.39, 1.26). Veterans Randy Johnson and Barry Zito have had rocky outings, but have given the team a chance to win as often as not. Only Jonathan Sanchez has been a real disappointment at 2-6. Manager Bruce Bochy has also had the luxury of trotting out the same group of five pitchers all season, a real rarity.

The San Francisco bullpen has pitched very well of late with 1.29 ERA in last seven games, moving up to eight overall. With the starters taking the pressure off the relievers, Bochy is able to go into late innings with set-up men and closer in place, making everyone more productive, explaining why the Giants have won 14 of last 19, despite not much run support.

Maybe Peter Coors of Coors Brewing is right, there is something in the water in the Rocky Mountains. The Colorado Rockies have again put together one of those out of nowhere streaks, with 11 consecutive wins and are within a game of .500 at 31-32 (+0.9). What was the cause and effect for such a drastic turnaround? The players were forced to look in the mirror after Clint Hurdle was jettisoned as manager.

"A lot of us realized that it wasn't him that wasn't out there executing," pitcher Aaron Cook said. The staff ace realized he was among those who was not performing, as one of the most extreme groundball pitchers in baseball was having too many baseball get air under them and getting hit hard. In his last three starts, Cook (5-3, 4.26, 1.39) has given six total runs in 21 innings and surrendered three walks over that period.

Collectively, the Rockies pitchers have not surrendered more than four runs in a single game during this scalding streak and the batters have started ripping the cover off the ball scoring 6.6 runs per game. Colorado has picked up a stunning +13.8 units during this stretch, giving streak-riders plenty to smile about.

Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh are next to visit this team on a Rocky Mountain high, the Rocks are worth watching for what direction they will go once they finally suffer a loss.

Earlier, mentioned the maturation of Matt Cain and another pitcher that has found a groove (a deep one at that) is Detroit’s Justin Verlander. Last year’s disastrous season (11-17, 4.84) had some wondering what direction the talented hard-throwing right-hander was headed. His first four starts brought back those same questions, yielding 21 earned runs in 22 innings. However, the words of new pitching coach Rick Knapp started to sink in and on April 27 at home against the Yankees, Verlander pitched seven shutout innings, with nine K’s and no walks. Knapp slowed down Verlander’s delivery and suddenly pitches that were up in the zone, were back down, with far greater control. The confidence returned and the speed variation on the breaking pitches was being spotted again.

The 26-year has won his last seven decisions and the Tigers are 8-2 when #35 takes the ball since his fourth start of the year. Verlander has been so dominant in last nine starts; he has 1.10 ERA and leads the American League in hitters swing and missing with 182. (Thanks, Inside Edge) Detroit is 7-1 (+5.4 units) when Verlander starts and he is the only starting pitcher to break triple digits on the radar gun twice in 2009.