2010 CONFERENCE USA FOOTBALL PREVIEW

2010 CONFERENCE USA FOOTBALL PREVIEW

By Marc Lawrence of Playbook.com

‘Welcome Back’ is the theme in 2010 in the C-USA. Its 2009 Most Valuable Player (Houston QB Case Keenum), its 2009 Defensive Player of the Year (UCF DE Bruce Miller) and its 2009 Special Teams Player of the Year (East Carolina WR/KR Dwayne Harris), all seniors, are back,

In addition, former Memphis RB Larry Porter and former ECU DB Ruffin McNeill each return to their alma maters as new head coaches in 2010.

This up and coming loop has sent six teams to post-season in four of the past five seasons, while going 10-6 SU and 12-4 ATS against .666 or greater opposition in those games.

Southern Miss takes an eight-year bowl skein into this campaign.

SMU was the most-improved team in the FBS during the 2009 season. The Mustangs won seven more games last year than they did in 2008.

In closing, remember this about this never-say-die conference: since its inception, CUSA underdogs are 21-13 ATS in non-conference battles in which both teams are undefeated, including 17-8 ATS as a dog of seven or more points.

It’s like John Sebastian once said, “Yeah we tease him a lot cause we've hot him on the spot, welcome back,
welcome back, welcome back…

Note: Team writeups excerpted from the 2010 PLAYBOOK Football Preview magazine. Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback. Designated ‘Play On’ and ‘Play Against’ Best Bets follow each team’s preview.

East Division

ALABAMA BIRMINGHAM – 8 / 9
TEAM THEME: BLAZING INFERNO
The Blazers have improved each year under HC Neil Callaway but the Birmingham brigade is clamoring for the 4th-year HC to bring home UAB’s first winning season (and bowl appearance) since 2004. It appears Callaway is starting to buckle under the pressure and is looking for the quick fix as he signed a nation-high 12 junior-college transfers. “We got a good mixture of people at every position,’ said Callaway. “I really think we helped ourselves at every spot and with the number of JC guys that we’ve signed, I think we got some immediate help.” Help is on the way in the form of nine returning starters for a defense that slipped a titch in 2009. The 22nd-ranked offense, which was boosted by the return of the entire unit last year, should once again be productive with the return of eight starters – though Callaway will have to replace versatile QB Joe Webb. The heat is on.
PLAY ON: as dog vs. East Carolina (11/13)

CENTRAL FLORIDA – 8 / 7
TEAM THEME: ODD OCCURRENCE
George O’Leary may want to turn the calendar ahead – say a year from now. The 7th-year HC has had terrific success in odd numbered years (26-14, three bowl appearances) while the even-numbered seasons have been brutal (8-27, zero bowls). If 2010 is going to show any promise, it will start with a rush defense that was tops in Conference USA and No. 4 nationally. C-USA defensive player of the year, Bruce Miller, returns for his senior season. The All-America candidate leads all active players nationally with 27 sacks and 44 tackles for a loss. Offensively, junior RB Byrnn Harvey (1,109 rushing yards, 14 TD’s) spearheads the Knights attack. Harvey actually had more yards in his sophomore season than highly-touted Kevin Smith had in his second year with the Knights. ‘Even’ though the calendar says 2010, the Knights ‘oddly’ enough should be competitive.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. UAB (10/6)

EAST CAROLINA – 5 / 2
TEAM THEME: ‘RUFFIN IT’
After escalating the ECU program to new heights, Skip Holtz couldn’t say no to a multi-million dollar offer from South Florida – his reward for putting the Pirates on the map. Enter former ECU defensive back and assistant, Ruffin McNeill. College football’s 13th minority head coach inherits a defense that led the nation in red-zone scoring defense (71.6%) and one that enjoyed the squad’s highest take-away total (34) since 1996. It may be awhile before Greenville sees those numbers again as McNeil also inherits a stop unit that returns just two starters and no linemen. While Holtz had the luxury of 52 returning letterman and 16 returning starters in 2009, Ruffin won’t enjoy the same – just 43 returnees and 7 total starters back for 2010. Early stops at Blacksburg and Chapel Hill will have us jumping ship before this voyage gets set for its September sail.
PLAY ON: vs. SMU (11/26)

MARSHALL – *7 / 7
TEAM THEME: THE DOCTOR IS IN
A native of Hurricane, WV and widely regarded as one of the country’s best recruiters, John ‘Doc’ Holliday brings an impressive resumé to Huntington. An associate head coach at West Virginia and Florida, Holliday will need to operate with the skill of a surgeon in order to escape the wrath of a brutal season-opening schedule that is laced with seven consecutive bowl teams – who combined for a 60-33 record. Fourteen returning starters, including a pair of QB’s that have started 24 games the past two seasons, should help in the procedure. So should a home field that has seen the Herd post a 118-19 record at Joan C. Edwards Stadium. Need some bar bet material? That .866 win percentage is No. 1 all-time in Division 1 football as Alabama (.825) and Bear Bryant Stadium rank a distant second. Holliday will like those house calls.
PLAY ON: vs. East Carolina (10/23)

MEMPHIS – 7 / 7
TEAM THEME: PORTER HOUSE
When Tommy West was pink-slipped in early November last season, he held a fiery press conference saying, “This is not a good day at the office. We’ve got to help this football program… or do away with it.” Help is on the way in the form of new coach Larry Porter, former MSU running back and most recently RB coach and chief recruiter at LSU. Asking every player to ‘Invest in the Helmet’, Porter contends all positions are open. Porter’s first priority will be patching up a defense that was over 100 YPG worse last season than in 2008.With only one QB on the roster that has taken a collegiate snap and rail-thin at WR where the top two receivers in school history are gone, it may be a while before dividends from his recruiting efforts are realized. Porter and the Tigers look to be raw in 2010.
PASS

SOUTHERN MISS – *4 / 9
TEAM THEME: HOLD ON TO YOUR HATS
We’re not quite ready to give another tip of the hat to Larry Fedora but the third-year head coach has kept one important Southern Miss tradition going – winning. Thanks to a season-ending five-game win streak in 2008 and season-opening hat trick in 2009, the Golden Eagles have recorded 16 straight winning campaigns… albeit, by the skin of their teeth. But 2009 saw the both sides of the ball take a slight step backwards. Nine returning starters should help the stop unit turn it around but improving an offense that loses record-setting RB Damion Fletcher and four offensive linemen will be Fedora’s main concern. The good news is there is plenty of experience at the QB position with the expected return of Austin Davis, who sat out most of last season after tearing a ligament in his foot. ‘Favre’ be it for us to say, but something could be amiss in Hattiesburg this season.
PLAY ON: vs. UAB (10/30)

West Division

HOUSTON – *9 / 7
TEAM THEME: A ‘CASE’ FOR THE HEISMAN
QB Case Keenum and his supporting cast are back and the Cougars are billing him as a legitimate Heisman candidate. And why not? His numbers speak for themselves as he is on the cusp of breaking every NCAA total offense and passing mark. With his top three wideouts all back (each with 85 or more catches), Keenum will likely become the first QB in college football history to throw for 5,000 yards three years in succession. How good has this offense been, you ask? Over the past two seasons, the Cougars have been held to under 28 points just three times while ringing up 40 or more points on 16 occasions! A couple of disappointing season-ending losses, including a throttling by Air Force in the Armed Forces Bowl, should have Keenum and company on the offensive early – and quite often.
PLAY ON: vs. Central Florida (11/5)

RICE – 9 / 9
TEAM THEME: BABY OWLS
The biggest collapse of all FBS programs in 2009 (from 10-3 to 2-10) resulted in a major overhaul to David Bailiff’s coaching staff. In Bailiff’s defense (or lack of one last year), 75 starts were lost to injuries. As a result, 14 starters on the 2009 squad were either freshmen or sophomores on the two-deep roster, matching Louisiana Tech for the youngest starting lineup in the nation. In fact, 22 Owls made their first collegiate start last year. The owlets started to show a little maturity late in the season with a pair of home wins over Tulane and UTEP. The good news is 18 starters who experienced those victories are back. The bad news is they may have to wait an extra week as their 2010 opener finds them playing Texas. That may not be so bad because, like last year, there’s only one way to go – and that’s up!
PLAY ON: as dog vs. SMU (10/2) – *KEY

SMU – *8 / 7
TEAM THEME: PAROLED
Apparently there IS life after death. 2009 saw the Mustangs go bowling for the first time since 1984, two years prior to their infamous ‘death sentence.’ It didn’t take long for June Jones to put his stamp on the program as both the offense and defense took huge strides. After being outscored 458-202 in 2008, the Mustangs got the better of the opposition in 2009 by a 380-359 count – a 277-point turnaround! No wonder they improved a nation’s-best seven games last season. They were also the only team in the country to outgain Houston during the regular season and hold Nevada’s potent rushing attack to over 200 yards below their season average. All this, with the 4th youngest team in the nation as 29 off 44 players on the two-deep roster were either freshmen or sophomores. With a target squarely on their backs, can the Mustangs once again live to tell about it?
PLAY AGAINST: vs. UTEP (11/6)

TEXAS EL PASO – *7 / 4
TEAM THEME: DASHING AND DARING
It’s been five years since HC Mike Price has brought a winner to West Texas but there’s a lot to fall in love with in El Paso this year – and it’s not a Mexican girl. QB Trevor Vittatoe, who broke UTEP passing records with three 3,000-yard passing seasons, is back. So is RB Donald Buckram (1,594 rushing yards) – one of only two backs (Toby Gerhart) to rush for 200-plus yards in three separate contests last season. “I think he’ll be even better this year. He’s bigger. He could be 200 pounds by the time the season starts,” gushes Price of Buckram. Eight all-conference honorees also return to El Paso in 2010. The schedule lends support to a big year, as well, as the Miners face only one team in the first eight games that sported a winning record in 2009. If Price can figure out a way to win the close ones (lost five games by a TD or less), then this season could be as “wild as the West Texas wind.”
PLAY ON: as dog vs. UAB (10/16)

TULANE – *7 / 4
TEAM THEME: TOLEDO, TOO LATE
After three seasons and a 9-27 record, Bob Toledo has learned that coaching in New Orleans is not so easy. That is, if you’re the head man at Tulane. With the loss of leading rusher Andre Anderson, another big losing campaign is likely and it’s doubtful Toledo will be back to man the Green Wave sidelines for his wooden anniversary. While there are no ball carriers with any significant experience on the roster, QB Ryan Griffin is back after starting the final six games and putting up solid numbers (1,143 yards, 8 TD’s) as a freshman in 2009. Toledo will have to improve on a 1-7 conference mark in each of the last two seasons if he has any chance of staying Green. A four-game home stand late in the year may help his cause but the feeling here is it will be too little, too late. Wave goodbye, Bob.
PLAY ON: vs. Army (10/9)

TULSA – *9 / 5
TEAM THEME: MISSION: REVENGE
A 5-7 campaign, on the heels of four straight winning seasons in which they averaged 9.5 wins a year, makes the Hurricane a certified ‘Mission Team’ in 2010. The mission will be to rejuvenate an offense that dropped 160 YPG and 18 PPG. The mission leader is QB G.J. Kinne who passed for 2,732 yards and 22 TD’s, while also leading the team in rushing yards (393 yards) and TD’s (5). Kinne is the only player in school history to pass for 300 yards and rush for 100 yards in the same game. WR/KR Damaris Johnson, the nation’s 2009 leader in all-purpose yards with a 224 YPG, looks to make another statement in 2010. Three of the top five tacklers return to a defense that actually improved in points against but slipped in total yards allowed. Despite a road schedule that includes four winning teams and Notre Dame, a soft home schedule makes this mission entirely possible.
PLAY ON: vs. Southern Miss (11/27) – *Key as dog

Be a Betting Champion for Conference Tournaments

The regular season is over except for one Ivy League game and the automatic bids are starting to fill in part of the NCAA Tournament dance card, with many of the so-called mid-majors having their conference championships completed. This leaves the bigger and more well-known conferences, along with a sprinkling of somewhat smaller leagues to start filling in with their respective teams.

In order to win during ESPN’s Championship week, you have to follow somewhat different rules than the regular season in wagering this week. Here are aspects to remember.

1) Choosing the right pooch

In most conferences tourney’s, underdogs are an above average wager, as these teams generally have more motivation and likely need to win to get in the tournament. One thing to look for is underdogs that have lost to opponent by 10 or more points twice and are double digit dogs before the semi-final round. This is where an unfocused favorite is most vulnerable and likely will go thru the motions against opponent that has been coached up for this being “a brand new season”. This can be particularly true if the underdog has already won one game in first round of larger conference event and has built a little momentum.

2) Underdogs in the right range

Another situation to look for is an underdog that has lost twice to the same opponent but byfive or less points in home and away situations in the same season. The scores tell us the difference between the two teams is not that significant, a shot here, a few missed free throws or late turnover could have been the difference. The underdog knows they are capable of beating this team; they just have to go out and prove it, which they are certainly capable of. This can be especially true if they have a lower defensive shooting percentage than their opponent on the season. Best bets are those at three points or higher.

3) Don’t get carried away with revenge

One of the most common mistakes I see and hear is sports bettors playing into multiple revenge situations. The two bits of information I just laid out do fall into revenge areas, but don’t get carried away. One such circumstance would be playing against a favorite, who defeated opponent by 15 or more points twice and in both cases the spread was single digits. In all likelihood, the oddsmakers will once again set a number below 10, making this a bad wager and here is why. If the underdog has been blown out twice and the oddsmakers is still calling for tighter game, something is amiss. The next step is to find if there is a matchup issue for the underdog, a player they can’t contain or maybe a style of defense they can’t solve. Old school handicapping would say bet the underdog seeking revenge, but today’s athlete is more confident to “work” opponent and is fearless knowing they can school foe yet again.

Another case would be a single digit underdog who lost by 25 or more with the teams meeting only one time and they were dogs by less than 10 points in previous meeting and have lost two of the prior three confrontations in past years. Basically the same scenario, the favorite cleans the clock of opponent and has history with many of the same players on the roster to do so yet again.

4) When in doubt go Under

Totals become a greater focus in college basketball this time of year, even for those that don’t play them a great deal during the regular season. Conference tournaments are about familiarity and coaches have more than enough film to understand tendencies of whom they are about to play and the pace slows considerably. This is not a revelation, as those setting the numbers are keenly aware, however they can’t deviate too far off the performance chart of how teams have played and all season, low-balling a number they might prefer, but than being slammed with a high volume of Over money, leaving them susceptible to being middled.

5) Road Warriors are safe bet

Always know the road record of matched teams in any meeting. Teams that have success on the road are less likely to give a bad performance as a favorite or underdog if they understand how to play away from home. It wasn’t a coincidence that William and Mary made the Colonial final, despite having no pedigree do to so. The Tribe entered the title game 12-6 and 11-6 ATS as a visitor. It’s worth watching Southern Mississippi who is 12-3 ATS away from Hattiesburgh and Richmond this week, who posted 10-6 and 11-4 ATS mark on the road.
One word of caution, don’t follow spread records exclusively, know the score. A team like East Carolina might look attractive at first glance at 1o-5 against the spread when out-of-town, but are they a good bet say at +8 or less when they lose on average by more than 10 points a game?

6) Numbers don’t lie

By now, most every team has played around 30 games or more and as former NFL football coach Bill Parcels said, “you are who you are”. If a team is around .500, yet has won five in a row, study the numbers to understand what has changed and look up information on the team. Maybe a change in the lineup sparked a hot streak or if this team was underachieving until recently and finally started playing up to level most suspected they should all year, that would be reason to look beyond the numbers.

Otherwise, don’t presume a team like North Carolina, who has surrendered 78 points per game away from Chapel Hill, is suddenly going to be a defensive maven and win the ACC Tournament because they decided to turn it on. Can it happen, of course, is it likely too, not really.

7) Follow coaches, just carefully

This past week, I was reading thru several different forums and at least on 20 occasions from a variety of bettors, they were all going to play Creighton to beat Bradley in Arch Madness, for first game for both squads because of the coach’s history. Dana Altman is a proven X’s and O’s coach, and has won The Valley tournament a number of times and had success in the NCAA tourney as well. One big thing to remember, he did this with better than average to very good teams. He came into matchup with Bradley, with a boring 16-14 club that was 3-12 and 4-11 ATS away from Omaha. The Blue Jays were four point favorites and were scalped by the Braves 81-62.

It makes sense to back a coach with a solid March history, but only if he has the players capable of maximizing his skills.

8) Need to know info

This is a bit self-serving, but Steve Makinen of StatFox worked his tail off in finding some of the finest information you will discover anywhere about particular conference tournaments. It’s on the site, so make sure to read it and keep it handy this week in making decisions. For me personally, I picked up two winners that I was on the fence about and dropped two games that would have been losers, because of this information.

One last case to remember. Just because a team hosts a conference tournament does not make them a lock to being champions. There have been ample times this has occurred, however they can also fail. Already this year, Mercer made the championship game on their home floor and came up short as an underdog to East Tennessee State and top seeded Coastal Carolina failed as a favorite in title tilt as a home favorite to Winthrop.

Make certain to follow these tips and you too can become a consistent betting winner during championship week.

One more day of college gridiron indulgence

All right, you made it this far, one more day of college football pageantry and you get your merit badge for taking in this many bowl games. After today’s group of five, its smooth sailing with individual games the rest of the way starting next week. Today’s five bowl contests take us to an unusual combination of locales throughout the day, starting in Toronto, heading south to Birmingham and Arlington, TX, followed by a trip to Memphis before ending in San Antonio. Kind of a where’s Waldo adventure. It doesn’t matter where they play them, as long as they do, with five more great betting opportunities on the second day of the New Year. Numbers from Bookmaker.com.

International Bowl
South Florida vs. Northern Illinois (+6.5, 50)
Rogers Centre – Toronto
12:00E ESPN2

The first three editions of this bowl north of the border weren’t all that competitive, as the Big East has swept the proceedings, including the last two by an average margin of 20.0 points per game. South Florida (7-5, 4-6 ATS) hopes to extend that streak when it takes on Northern Illinois (7-5, 6-5-1 ATS). The Bulls do not bring positive momentum, having gone both 2-5 SU and ATS in their previous seven outings. Northern Illinois is 7-5 but lost all four of its games (1-2-1 ATS) versus eventual bowl-qualifying teams. In fact, head coach Jerry Kill owns a 0-6 ATS record versus winning teams while with Northern Illinois.

Reason to watch and wager- On history alone South Florida gets the nod over Northern Illinois. The MAC is in the midst of another horrible bowl campaign (0-3, 0-2-1 ATS). The MAC is 1-8 SU against BCS conferences in last nine bowl games, with just two covers. The Bulls will have speed and superior athletes all over the field, but motivation certainly comes into question. Does a Big East team care about playing an average MAC team north of the border, well, that’s an easy answer. If freshman quarterback B.J. Daniels hits a few big plays against NIU, it’s easy to surmise South Florida comes out on top since they are 16-1 ATS when they gain nine or more net passing yards per attempt. For the Huskies it’s about getting to rushing average of 203 yards per game. If Northern Illinois can reach that threshold, they are 6-0 and 4-1 ATS this season.

3DW Line – South Florida by 6

Papajohns.com Bowl
Connecticut vs. South Carolina (-3.5, 51)
Legion Field – Birmingham
2:00E ESPN

Connecticut was the nation’s best spread-covering team in 2009, going 10-2 ATS, including 6-0 ATS as an underdog. Backers of the Huskies will look to go to the well one more time, as UConn is catching points vs. South Carolina. Both teams boast 7-5 records, with the Gamecocks having played one of the toughest schedules in the country. They were 3-5 SU but 5-3 ATS against fellow bowl teams. This is just the fourth time in 2009 Steve Spurrier’s team will have played as favorites. South Carolina is 22-3 and 15-9 ATS as chalk in his tenure, including 1-1 in bowl games. For the Huskies, this is a fourth-ever bowl game and they are 2-1 SU and ATS.

Reason to watch and wager- If you can’t decide which team to wager on in this contest by the time you are reading this, it’s probably best to pass, since half of the 24 games these teams played were determined by seven or less points. South Carolina has to appeal to SEC to get out of horrific November slate that has then sliding each year or find ways to recruit better players. South Carolina has a good defense team (20.4 PPG vs. opps. scoring 28.1) and pedestrian offense averaging 21.7. The lack of a consistent passing game leaves the Gamecocks at 8-20 ATS after passing for 170 yards or less. Connecticut once again performed well in the role of the underdog and averaged a surprising 32.1 points per game this season. If QB Zach Frazier can stay as hot as Papa John’s pizza (rare unpaid product placement) , UConn can rise to 10-2 ATS with two or more weeks of preparation.

3DW Line – Connecticut by 3

Cotton Bowl
Oklahoma State vs. Mississippi (-3, 50)
Cowboys Stadium – Arlington
2:00E FOX

Ole Miss and Oklahoma State last met in the 2004 Cotton Bowl, with quarterback Eli Manning and the Rebels pulling out a 31-28 win in his finale. The Rebels are 8-4 (5-5 ATS) in 2009 and will be putting a seven-game, non-conference ATS winning streak on the line versus the Cowboys. They have also fared well in bowl games with 7-1 SU and 6-1-1 ATS record in their last eight. Oklahoma State has the better record (9-3, 6-5-1 ATS) versus a tougher schedule, yet plays as the underdog. The Cowboys are 0-3-1 ATS all-time as bowl game underdog. The SEC has won and covered five of last six Cotton Bowls.

Reason to watch and wager -The Cotton Bowl is in name only changing venues to Jerry Jones palatial estate. This bowl matches two teams that didn’t live up to August Top 10 rankings. Oklahoma State at least had excuses not having two of its top three offensive stars for most of the season. This is a program in need of a quality win and they are just 9-18 ATS as an underdog. You hate to say it, but it was another Houston Nutt team that didn’t produce with expectations. Jevan Snead wilted under the limelight and was saved in part because of the brilliant play of Dexter McCluster, who carried the offense once November arrived. The Rebels are 30-14 ATS away from home playing against a team with a winning record. Think of this contest as mouthwash, with each team trying cleanse a less than desirable season.

3DW Line – Mississippi by 2

Liberty Bowl
Arkansas vs. East Carolina (-7.5, 59.5)
Liberty Bowl – Memphis
5:30E ESPN

East Carolina captured its second straight C-USA title by beating Houston in the league championship game 38-32. The reward of that accomplishment is another matchup with the SEC. The Pirates lost to Kentucky last season as favorites and in the 2010 edition and will be a good-sized underdog to high-scoring Arkansas. Coach Skip Holtz is 22-10 ATS as underdog and his team finished 6-1 and 5-2 ATS. The Razorbacks (7-5, 7-4 ATS) also played well down the stretch though, going 4-1 SU and ATS in their final five, while scoring 44.8 points per game. They have won just two of their past nine bowl matchups and are below average 3-6 against the spread.

Reason to watch and wager- East Carolina can pull the upset if their offensive and defensive lines can control the line of scrimmage. Coach Holtz learned from his father about the value of having linemen that can move the line of scrimmage either way. The Pirates can steal a victory if they move the chains against an Arkansas defense that yielded over 400 yards and have its talented front four bring consistent pressure QB Ryan Mallett. ECU’s pass defense is vulnerable in conceding 260 yards and without pocket pressure, they fall to 0-7 ATS in last seven non-conference games. Coach Bobby Petrino in an offensive mastermind and puts together great game plans to take advantage of opponent’s weakness. Expect him to do more of the same and hope his defense can make enough negative plays to influence the outcome of the game. The Razorbacks have covered six of last seven against teams with winning records.

3DW Line – Arkansas by 8

Alamo Bowl
Texas Tech vs. Michigan State (+7.5, 59.5)
Alamodome– San Antonio
9:00E ESPN

The Alamo Bowl game has been one of the few lately that Big Ten fans can actually look forward to. Their teams are 8-5 SU and 10-3 ATS since 1995. Big Ten squads showcase a 20-9-1 ATS record in their last 30 bowl games as an underdog of four points or more, which is the case in San Antonio. For this year’s contest, Michigan State (6-6, 4-6-1 ATS) has a poorer record than Texas Tech’s 8-4 mark, yet has the edge in several offensive categories, including pass yards per attempt. The Red Raiders (6-5 ATS) have not covered their last four bowl games and the Big 12 is 4-11 ATS in Alamo Bowl appearances.

Reason to watch and wager- Unfortunately the main story line on the 15th bowl game in three days will have little to do with football. The whole Mike Leach episode will play out over time, but for this contest it creates an opportunity for Michigan State. It would seem some division would occur within the Red Raiders locker room taking away focus. Their offense while incredibly potent is based on timing, which can be affected by long layoff. Texas Tech offense moves a little quicker on the carpet and they are 45-28 ATS in games played on turf. Michigan State has a wretched secondary, surrendering 223 yards or more in eight of the 12 contests. This means they are wholly dependent on squeezing the opposing QB in the pocket. The Spartans were erratic offense, but were much better when they had offensive balance running the ball, which is not a sure thing against a decent Texas Tech defense. Michigan State is 3-7 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points and covered just one contest in the second half of the season. This matchup looks like a Red Raiders rout, it all depends on their state of mind with shocking developments.

3DW Line – Texas Tech by 8

Great start to college football Saturday

By game time on Saturday, two more conference tiles will have been decided over the last couple of games and now it’s time to fill the last five spots, which includes four specific BCS bowl slots. Starting in Pittsburgh, the home of the defending professional football and hockey champions and the Pirates (keeps things in balance), the Big East championship game will be played. Over in Greenville, NC, where they average 50 inches of rain a year, the Conference USA crown will be determined, with the winner advancing to the Liberty Bowl. Let the fun begin.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh 12:00E ABC

The Bearcats (6-5 ATS) are perfect 11-0 heading into what is Big East championship contest. Coach Brian Kelly has done a terrific job of keeping all the excitement in perspective, saying “…the program has conceivably has arrived, but it is not built”. Tony Pike is back as the starting quarterback; however Kelly has deftly changed the offense from a passing team, to one that has compiled 180 yards or more rushing in the in four of the last five games. This strategy has worked well in thinking ahead to the potential of inclement weather and given opposing defenses something else to worry about. The defense has worn down as the season progressed, especially against the run, being gouged for over 200 yards in the last two of last three games which will be a focal point Pittsburgh will certainly attack. Cincy is 27-9 ATS vs. teams outscoring opponents by 10 or more points per game.

Pittsburgh (9-2, 6-3-1 ATS) is off confidence deflating loss at West Virginia 19-16 and now like many of the teams playing this weekend for championships, can focus on the task at hand. Coach Dave Wannstedt has taken a lot of grief as head coach in several stops; nevertheless he is to be commended for this job. He built the program his way, defense first and a pro-style offensive attack. He not only was able to get the right players to fit his program, but worked with players that improved each season like QB Bill Stull. He wasn’t afraid to take a chance on dynamic RB Dion Lewis, considered too small by others. The Panthers are 12-5-1 ATS in last 17 lined contests.

Bookmaker.com has seen Pittsburgh go from opening as 1.5-point favorites to two-point underdogs. In order to prove bettors wrong the Panthers must be the more physical team, control the clock with run game and have defensive front pressure Pike. Pittsburgh’s 43 sacks was the best in college football, while Cincinnati has given up nine, the nation's third-fewest. Wanny’s crew really gave a non-effort in loss to West Virginia last week and is 5-1 ATS off a spread loss.

Pittsburgh’s secondary is not as good as its numbers (45th) which provides coach Kelly an opportunity to dissect it, while looking thru companies in South Bend that make business cards. If the offensive line holds up, Pike should carve Pitt up like a surgeon. Pike is the better quarterback in this BCS battle. Defensively, the Cats have to find ways to get off the field, since they lose in slug-fest. Cincy is 28-11-1 ATS as visitors against teams with winning home records.

This series is known as the River City Rivalry and Pittsburgh is 7-1 and 4-1 ATS and the total of this Big East bash is 58.

3DW Line – Pittsburgh by 4.5

Houston at East Carolina – 12:00E ESPN2

It took all season, but two of the teams that were thought to be in the Conference USA championship game in early October have emerged as division champions. East Carolina held off Southern Mississippi 25-20 and now has a chance to be back-to-back champs. The Pirates (8-4, 5-6 ATS) advanced to the championship contest based on many of the same things that helped them all season. Sixth-year senior quarterback Patrick Pinkney led the way throwing for 269 yards and the defensive line made play after play, allowing East Carolina survive. East Carolina will be the host for this title tilt, however they are only .500 against the spread in last 52 home games.

Houston (10-2, 8-3 ATS) was supposed to play in this game a season ago, but was derailed by Rice. The Cougars made sure that didn’t happen two years in a row by obliterating the Owls 73-14 and moving on to first championship conflict. Quarterback Case Keenum will bring the nation’s top passing game into Greenville, averaging over 440 yards thru the air, with its dizzying array of pass patterns and movement. Keenum is a finalist for the Davey O’Brien National Quarterback Award and has terrific receivers to throw to. The Cougars are consistent offensively, scoring in 45 of 48 quarters this season, which is the highest average in college football at 93.7 percent. Houston is only 10-22 ATS in road games after gaining 325 or more passing yards in last game.

East Carolina pulls the upset as 2.5-point dogs if Pinkney throws accurately and RB Dominique Lindsay runs wild. Both are possibilities as Houston allowed 445 yards per game (those same teams averaged 370 YPG) and was 113th in run defense. The best way to beat Houston is a cliché, but it’s true, keep the offense on the sidelines. The Pirates can steal a win since they are 13-2 ATS when they score 28 or more points.

ECU is lucky to be here. Southern Miss fumbled and lost the ball at the one going in for touchdown and had blocked extra point returned for two points. Houston has to block a very good defensive line to give Keenum time to throw. This offense is unstoppable if pass patterns are given time to develop (ask losers). On defense, the Cougars will allow a ton of yards, but need to make a few stops or force turnovers. Houston historically has a vast collection of bad angles; nonetheless they are 8-3 ATS THIS season.

Here are numbers to chew on about this C-USA battle. Houston is 2-9 ATS in road games when they allow 28 or more points, while East Carolina is 0-6 ATS when they concede 28 or more points. The road team has won four of last five meetings and covered the spread each time. Additionally, in head to head matchups, Houston won by 21 points and East Carolina by 14.2.

3DW Line – Houston by 1

Can Pirates steal a win from Hokies?

East Carolina is in the driver’s seat in the C-USA East Division and takes a brief pause to try for second straight upset of Virginia Tech on their home turf. The Pirates have been off since Oct. 27, after mauling Memphis 38-19 and likes the direction the offense has gone in being more productive. In East Carolina’s last two games, they have averaged 478 yards per outing, be it against far weaker competition than Virginia Tech.

Quarterback Patrick Pinkney is at his best when the Pirates (5-3, 3-4 ATS) have a lead or are within one score when trailing. Pinkney is a dissonant thrower of the football and a far better game manager than playing the role of Captain Comeback. East Carolina is 7-3 in last 10 games at Dody-Ficklen Stadium. (Couldn’t possibly make up that name)

Virginia Tech (5-3, 3-5 ATS) is in unfamiliar territory. It’s the first week of November and they have nothing to really play for other than improving overall record to save face and avoid 2003 campaign that finished with 8-5 record and Insight Bowl loss to California. Bookmaker.com has Hokies as 13-point favorites with total of 52, which is a dangerous number for a potentially unmotivated road fave. This is the first of two road games for Virginia Tech and they are 10-4 ATS as visiting favorites the last five seasons.

Virginia Tech assistant coaches are coming under fire in Blacksburg. Offensive coordinator Bryan Stinespring has been in hot water for some time and has in own website (http://firebryanstinespring. com/). Hokies’ fans haven’t liked his conservative game plans and vent their frustration towards him. Even Bud Foster’s defensive prowess is being attacked in Hokies’ blogs, with defense being abused for 180 or more yards on the ground in half of Virginia Tech’s games. They are hard to comprehend 79th in the country against the rush and 3-8-1 ATS in non-conference encounters.

East Carolina’s best chance is to bottle Hokies running game (allowing 108 YPG) and make them throwing team. QB Tyrod Taylor has made great strides as a passer and Pirates secondary is not going to discourage any team from throwing against them (103rd), however as witnessed last Thursday, the junior signal caller is not polished when slinging from the pocket. Since knocking of Virginia Tech and West Virginia to start the 2008 season, East Carolina is 0-5 SU and ATS in most recent non-league matches.

Even with last week’s upset, Frank Beamer’s club is still 14-4 ATS on Thursday’s and 8-2 ATS in November.

Though the bigger goal is winning another C-USA title, it will be festive atmosphere in Greenville, with ECU looking to take down a vulnerable Hokies bunch. The Pirates are 8-1 ATS when catching 10.5 or more points and coach Skip Holtz will have them in a frenzy. East Carolina is 5-9 SU all-time against Virginia Tech and has covered only twice in last six meetings.

ESPN will provide the coverage at 7:45 Eastern, with the Hokies on 11-0 UNDER run on Thursday nights.

Tuesday Tilts

Well after a semi-day off, we come back today with a 1-0 record and surprisingly Brandon Lange missed his MNF total (not). The Top Trend and Best System are related to tonight’s C-USA matchup. Ken is brimming with confidence on his latest hot streak and picks a NBA winner on opening night. Good Luck

NEW Feature: New Poll Question at the bottom of page.

What I thought last yesterday –How much Jon Gruden adds to the Monday Night football telecast. He’s insightful, even on obvious plays. He brings a great deal of enthusiasm without being over the top and brings out the best of Ron Jaworski when they feed off each other. You agree or disagree?

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Football System-1) PLAY ON favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like East Carolina, who are average passing team -175-230 YPG- against an average passing defense -175-230 YPG- after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game. This non-qualifying system is 41-11, 78.8 percent.

Free Football Trend-2) The ECU Pirates are 11-1 ATS against Memphis.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Ken nailed winner yesterday and likes Cleveland in home opener at -5.

Guaranteed CFB Winner Today!

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Pirates at Tigers Game Matchup

It hasn’t been quite the season East Carolina envisioned; however a victory at Memphis keeps them on track to defend their title as Conference USA champions. The Pirates (4-3, 2-4 ATS) are tied for first place in the East Division with Marshall and Southern Miss at 3-1 and take control, at least for the time being with a win.

East Carolina hopes their 49 points against Rice has them going in the right direction offensively, since they rank fifth in points scored (25.1) and are eighth in total offense (329.9) in the league. Quarterback Patrick Pinkney has been uneven performer all season in terms of passing. Despite a veteran offensive line, East Carolina has averaged just 3.7 yards per carry against opponents allowing 4.1. The Pirates are only 1-3 SU as visitors this season and 2-9 ATS in road games over the last two seasons.

Memphis (2-5, SU&ATS) has moved the ball better than the number of points they’ve scored on the season and will need to improve that situation promptly with daunting slate the rest of the year. The Tigers rank sixth in total offense in C-USA play, however are merely ninth in scoring at 21.4 points per game.

Quarterback injuries and ineffectiveness have again limited what coach Tommy West would like to do at Memphis. A great example of moving the ball without scoring was last contest against Southern Miss. In spite of 425-360 edge in total yards, Memphis lost 36-16 as 14.5-point underdogs. The Tigers are 1-4-1 ATS in non-Saturday games.

Bookmaker.com has East Carolina as four-point road favorites, despite 0-6 ATS mark in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last three seasons. The Pirates will look to force miscues and are in the Top 20 in turnovers forced with 17. They will need to be consistent on offense and keep tallying scores since Memphis red zone defense is laughable, with opposing teams have scored 25 of 27 trips.

For the Tigers, it’s about scoring touchdowns and ringing up 30 or more points. If Memphis can reach 30-point plateau, they are 8-3 ATS. That means passing and running the ball effectively. They are 0-6 ATS when they rush for 100 to 150 yards over the last two seasons. Memphis has struggled mightily with East Carolina, with 4-8 SU record and 1-11 ATS, failing to cover last seven in a row.

Coach Skip Holtz has his father Lou in town, along with Rece Davis and Mark May to do the game on ESPN2 at 8 Eastern. With Memphis still having road games at Tennessee, at Houston and at Tulsa, this might be a conference game to give sharp effort and they are 8-1 ATS after Southern Miss and 8-4 ATS as home underdogs under coach West.