Bring Back Steroids to Baseball!

I mean it; let these baseball players start taking something again. O.K. roids are illegal in baseball but some chemist dude has to cooking up something with a masking agent that could bring the power back to baseball. Jose Bautista of Toronto leads the big leagues with 18 home runs. Back when Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa and Jose Canseco played, those guys and even a freakin’ Brady Anderson could hit that many in a month. In the National League, Cory Hart leads with 15 homers, that is less than 45 for the entire season from the leading masher.

I used to watch Sports Center and Baseball Tonight religiously knowing I’d get my fill of long blasts of 400+ feet with guys having bulging biceps, necks bigger than their oversized 8 ¾ hats and enough acne that Clearsil could carry my stock portfolio.

Now you get the occasional long ball, hitters going the other way with a pitch for a single and even the worst of all, showing guys moving the runner to another base to help SET-UP another run to be scored. No wonder I bought Captain Morgan’s Long Island Iced Tea.

Betting baseball totals has become a joke. The oddsmakers spotted the trend last year and immediately began posting lower numbers from a season ago. The average posted total is more than five percent lower than a year ago and runs scored and home runs are their lowest in over a decade. Even with the reduction of totals numbers, the Under is still 842-784, 51.7. I know San Diego’s pitching has been incredible this year with the fewest runs allowed at 3.3 per game and they play in the second largest expanse other than the Grand Canyon, but come on, they have had more totals of six (2) than anything above 7.5 (none) at Petco (Death Valley) Park.

Remember the good old days when you wagered against the oddsmakers at Coors Field? Totals of 11.5 to 13 were common before humidors. Sadly, Colorado has only had three games of 10.5 or higher all season at their Rocky Mountains home. I know the Rockies are better with the likes of Troy Tulowitzki and Ubaldo Jimenez, but I sure miss Dante Bichette, Larry Walker and 1,000 Colorado pitchers who never got anybody out. Let the baseball’s breathe and dry out in Colorado for more runs to be scored.

Besides where did all the hitting stars disappear to? Bautista and Hart leading their respective leagues in home runs, where is Albert Pujols, Mark Reynolds, David Ortiz and A-Rod. I understand they are close, but who is talking about Alex Rodriguez catching Barry Bonds for the all-time home run lead let alone Hank Aaron as the former long ball king.

I admit it, I used to be a juicer, I had the machine where you put all the fruits and vegetables in it and made it a drink, but after a few months, though I felt better, a friend pointed out to me that I’ll live six months longer than him in a nursing home by doing this.

I like seeing second sacker Kelly Johnson of Arizona with 13 home runs already (16 is career high), that means he’s doing something right to make himself stronger. In fact the D-Backs are my favorite team at 38-19 Over. They are way better than any reality TV show with people screwing up their lives. All the Arizona hitters swing WAY harder than they should, strikeout a ton while hitting enough home runs. And their pitching is so bad the Phoenix Fire Department is a new stadium sponsor with their 7.22 bullpen ERA.

Maybe I’m over-reacting, but when Carlos Silva is 8-0 with a 2.93 ERA and the Cubs are +10 units with him pitching with their sickly offense, something isn’t right in baseball.

While baseball celebrates the end of the steroids era with the likes of Jimenez, Tim Lincecum, Roy Halladay, Chris Carpenter and now Stephen Strasburg, plus countless other pitchers that are taking over the game, I’ll be rooting for youngsters like Atlanta’s Jason Heyward and Florida’s Michael Stanton to be the next hitting stars, while dreaming about Harry Caray saying this about another Sosa bomb, “It could be, it might be, IT IS another home run for Sosa!”

Written by Red Wydley who drops by on occasion.

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NFL quarterback controversy’s

Competition is healthy right? When someone has to compete, they tend to extend more effort and become better at what they do. But what happens when say two mediocre people go head to head? Does it really benefit a company or organization having to pick the best of an average pairing? And what about the sports bettor, he’s left to analyze the merits of mediocrity.

In the NFL, this happens a lot. The most telling position is under center with the quarterback. In studying the list of 32 NFL teams, it is good business to find the quarterback situations that are up for grabs and give strong consideration to playing Under on futures wagers for team totals.

Why you ask, it allows the old professional football proverb – If you have more than one quarterback, you have none.

The Oakland Raiders drafted JaMarcus Russell No.1 two years ago and to call his progress S L O W would be doing injustice to the word itself. Talent-wise the former LSU quarterback can make all the throws, however work habits, dedication, decision-making and staying in shape were all questions marks when he was drafted and remain today. The Oakland camp is so unsure if he is the right person for the job, they’ve brought in 39-year old Jeff Garcia.

Reports have the Raiders organization thinking Russell can learn from Garcia’s work ethic and understand what it takes to play in this league. One problem, Garcia is a curmudgeon, he has no interest in developing Russell, he wants to be the starting quarterback. If Garcia believes he has earned the job in camp (which he always does) and if coach Tom Cable (with Al Davis calling every 10 seconds) decides Russell is his guy to start the season, Garcia’s past suggests a malcontent who isn’t afraid to speak his mind. This sets up combustible situation for a franchise who makes the Kardashian’s seem normal. Sportsbook.com has Da Raaaiders at 5.5 for season wins, but if Russell fails or Garcia starts seeing the ghosts of linemen chasing him like last season, they will fall short of that total in 2009.

New Tampa Bay head coach Raheem Morris was a big fan Josh Freeman at Kansas State and picked him in first round as long term quarterback solution. While most experts considered Freeman a project, he quickly moved up in the eyes of those in the Buccaneers organization with sharp workouts in mini-camps and OTA’s. Freeman was helped significantly competing with Luke McCown and Byron Leftwich.

Morris can’t be milquetoast in making a decision. His options are more limited than he believes and nobody thinks Freeman is as prepared as Matt Ryan for quarterback duty to start the season. The smart thing to do is start McCown and let Freeman learn and make change at midseason if necessary, with veteran Leftwich in the bullpen. Oddsmakers have pegged the Bucs for 6.5 wins after two nine win campaigns, which makes good sense.

Sweeping changes were made in Cleveland, nevertheless, sports talk radio and Browns blogs are still in debate who should be starting quarterback, Derrick Anderson or Brady Quinn. New head man Eric Mangini’s first true decision as coach will be picking one of the two. No matter who he chooses, a large bucketful of support will be for the player that lost, especially if the winner fails to live up to expectations.

The real issue here is ability. Quinn is local guy, but does not possess strong arm and accuracy isn’t his strong point. He can pick up first downs with his legs and likes to throw to tight end in tough spots. His true value is incomplete due to lack of playing and injury. Anderson is neither as good as he played in 2007 nor as awful as he looked last season. He’s like a hot fudge sundae, hot and cold, and definitely turnover-prone. Mangini needs to take a stand with one and live with it, especially in first season as coach and worry about the future later. Bettors have to do the same with Browns listed at 6.5 wins for 2009.

Of course the craziest quarterback controversy isn’t even one and might not ever be one, yet has the juiciest story. Brett Favre will be a Minnesota Viking if his arm is sound and Sage Rosenfels will wonder how he was blindsided. Even more so than Garcia, Favre isn’t putting on a purple and white uniform to wear a headset. He signs; he expects to start, even if he plays the “I just want a chance to compete” card. Except for 2007, Favre has seen a noticeable deterioration in his skill to throw the medium-deep pass (unless it’s a slant) or long pass over the last four years.

Rosenfels sagged as starter for Houston last season, being too much a risk-taker when not needed. Tarvais Jackson has had his chances and fumbled his opportunities to take the Vikings-mantle by the horns and will have to move on to have real shot at starting again. Though Minnesota fans are mildly excited about Favre coming after seeing him beat their team all these years, be careful for what you wish with a quarterback who turns 40 in October. Minnesota total of nine wins could go south if No. 4 fails to impress.

Several other teams don’t have specific issues at the field general position; however they do not have answers necessarily.

Is Trent Edwards really what Buffalo needs at quarterback? He played the role of Indian-giver in 2008. He made the coaches very comfortable in the first half of the season making him the starter and gave it all back with a repulsive second half. Terrell Owens can help, if Edwards can hit the target. Are the Bills capable of beating 7.5 wins set by oddsmakers, after a trio of seven win seasons?

Also in the AFC East, the Jets have to decide on Kellen Clemens, who has never really impressed or draft pick Mark Sanchez to beat a spot of seven wins.

Tennessee has total of nine W’s set on them. Can Kerry Collins continue to be a winner and if not, is Vince Young ready to resume career and become whom the Titans originally believed they had.

Matt Hasselbeck is the starter in Seattle and he’s become increasingly more injury-prone with advancing age. Will new coach Jim Mora have quick hook if Hasselbeck flounders and go with more athletic Seneca Wallace as Seahawks look to reclaim NFC West?

Shaun Hill has 7-3 record as San Francisco starter the last two years, which he earned in part because he had a better feel for Mike Martz offense. That offense has been scrapped with his departure. Hill is tough, with strong pocket presence and a good decision-maker. Word out of the Bay Area is he has teammates respect, but the 2005 top selection Alex Smith is hell-bent on proving he’s not a bust. Smith took a huge pay cut to stay with Niners (obviously nobody called) and believes his mended wing and more traditional offense is better suited to have him be leader of 49ers and pass seven win total placed on them.

With this much acrimony floating around this many different NFL teams, it is hard to make a case any of the teams are worthy of an Over play before the season starts.

Umpire Report for Baseball Bettors

In searching thru various forums, I will come across enough baseball bettors, who place real value on who is calling balls and strikes. Though this is often an overlooked aspect of sports wagering, much like meaningful trends, it is foolish not to consider, especially when extreme cases are involved. Much like all but washed-up Mike Hampton of Houston having 14-3 career record against Pittsburgh, including four of his five wins this season; it pays to know all the little oddities that surround baseball to have fuller understanding of winning wagers.

The home plate umpire can and does have a direct impact on every game they call. How often do you see the frustrated batter or pitcher either saying something or emitting body language that you understand as the observer they believed the person with the chest protector missed a call?

Commissioner Bud Selig has unified the umpires, eliminating the way American League and National League umps called games and placed them on higher alert by monitoring their games with special cameras to grade them on regular basis. Though this generally has brought the disparity between the league’s closer together, without question, certain men in blue call the game differently and players have to adjust.

For sports bettors, the greatest influence an umpire can have is on the total. Though the strike-zone is supposed to be uniform, much like pass interference in football, different people have differing views as to what they see. For the sake simplicity and accuracy, we only looked at adjudicators that have called balls and strikes for a minimum of 12 games in 2009. Here are the top UNDER umpires this season to date.

1) Andy Fletcher 13-3-2
2) Scott Barry 13-4-1
3) Brian Gorman 12-4-1
4) Fieldin Culbreth 11-4-1
5) Bill Miller 13-5

Collectively, this contingent is 45.5 units Under in the 67 games they crouched behind the catcher. In most cases, one umpire stands out for his method of calling games and Bill Miller would be the one in this group. Miller has a broader strike zone than most mediators, making him a pitchers delight behind the dish. He ranks eighth in fewest walks allowed (5.9) per game and is second in punch-outs at 15.7 per contest, among the 69 umpires that have called a dozen or more games looking in the pitchers eye.

If you happen to be attending or being able to watch a ballgame, in which our next collection of arbiters is involved behind the plate, make sure you three or more hours, since this will likely be the length of time needed to complete nine innings of baseball.

Here is the Top 5 OVER umps as baseball approaches the All-Star break.

1) Tim McClelland 12-5-2
2) Eric Cooper 12-5
3) Randy Marsh 11-5-1
4) Jim Reynolds 8-4
5) Jerry Meals 11-6-1

As you can see, this assemblage is not as one-sided in viewpoint of what they are calling as their fellow brethren in blue. This collection is 46-25 (26.4 units) Over, for a 64.7 percentage. Compare that to the Top 5 umpires who call more strikes and force hitters to have wider and longer strike zones. That collection of umps is 62-20 Under, 75.6 percent.

Most pitchers cringe at the thought of Randy Marsh behind the plate, knowing they have to get more of the plate to get strikes rung up, since he is sixth in most walks called at 8.3 per game (same as McClellend) and registers the fewest strikeouts (11.8) among all plate moderators.
It is probably not a wise choice to pick a total based on an umpire alone, but a fool and his money are soon to part if one isn’t knowledgeable who is calling ball and strikes. Remember this the next time you go to a game and hear the words bellow out, “Come on blue, get your head in the game.”

Why are these baseball teams playing Under?

There has been more of movement the last several years for baseball bettors to play totals. It is easy to trace the origins as totals today have price tags of -135 or -140 on a particular number, compared to mostly -120 at the highest point before a number change not that many seasons ago. (Ex. - Under 9 (-120) moves down to 8.5) With betting lines like the stock market, what creates this kind of volatility? Let’s examine the top four teams playing UNDER the total in 2009.

The Texas Rangers are 40-23-2 UNDER, which is in and of itself a shocker. Texas has long been known as offensive club playing in run-friendly Rangers Park at Arlington. Along with this, the Rangers pitchers have not exactly cast a spell over the opposition, as they have given up about the same number of runs as the offense generates. Their have been changes within the organization since Nolan Ryan became President and they are apparent.

The offense still scores runs, averaging five a game, which is down a little, with the offense slumping a bit lately. The biggest change comes in the pitching. It is doesn’t seem plausible Texas will lead the American League or baseball for that matter in earned run average playing half their games in Arlington bandbox. That doesn’t mean they can’t improve and have they ever.

After finishing 30th in baseball with 5.37 ERA in 2008, the Rangers pitchers (really have a different look about them) have improved nearly a whole run to 4.42, ranking 18th overall. (Thru 6-17-09) The most noticeable difference has been throwing strikes. This season, Rangers’ pitchers are 11th in walks allowed, last year they were 24th. Texas also has legitimate ways to close out games, as closers Frank Francisco and C.J. Wilson have led the way in the Rangers converting 82.6 percent of save attempts. (19 of 23)

The feel is oddsmakers have been slow to adjust and the wagering public has not gotten on board with Texas playing this way.

The Chicago White Sox are another team that has played UNDER with 39-26-1 mark. The reasoning for the South Siders to be playing this style of ball is not scoring as many runs, averaging 4.1 per game. The White Sox are at their best when they are hitting the long ball. That was true in 2005 when they won the World Series, finishing fifth in the baseball with 200 home runs and last year when they made the playoffs, leading the Major Leagues with 235. At this juncture they are strictly middle-of-the-road ranked 14th overall.

The big boppers are getting older like Jim Thome and Carlos Quentin has been injured and not the same player as last season. One can not overlook the weather factor, with many cold and cloudy days in Chi-town, with the wind blowing in more frequently off of Lake Michigan.
Seattle is 39-25-2 UNDER, with their everyday lineup performing much like Starbucks stock. The Mariners are at the bottom of the barrel in runs scored at 3.7 per game. They have been among the worst on baseball all year for on-base percentage and are next to last in drawing walks.

Another component is the pitching the M’s have delivered. Only the Los Angeles Dodgers have a lower team ERA than Seattle, who has nine pitchers that have seen action in at least nine games with earned run average below four.

The Detroit Tigers are another club on the UNDER train, with 38-27-1 record. The Tigers situation is a little more difficult to understand until to bring out the shovel and start digging around. Detroit is a respectable 13th in runs scored at 4.8 per outing and they allow 4.5 per game. What isn’t so readily seen unless you follow this Motown team, is they have scored three runs or less 29 times, which is over 40 percent of the time they have played in 2009. This inconsistent offense has lent itself to falling below the total.

Manager Jim Leyland has three dependable starters in Jason Verlander, Edwin Jackson and rookie Rick Porcello, who have 3.71 ERA’s or less. Detroit at this writing is tied for the lead in shutouts in baseball with seven.

Part of finding winners on totals is understanding why teams play the way they do and trying to beat the oddsmakers to the punch.

Bullpen matters to baseball bettors

Maybe it’s the SportsCenter syndrome, or too many highlights on Baseball Tonight, but it sure seems like their have been more blown saves this season then in the past. Talked to a number of people, from normal every day fans to serious baseball bettors and the answer was the same, they agreed, more blown saves in 2009 then in the past. This piqued my curiosity and had to find the correct answer. As it turns out, they are up slightly, however not as much as I and others believed.

This year, save conversions are running about 65 percent, which is actually up from last season’s total of 64 percent. From 2002 to 2007 the range was 66 to 68 percent. This is not earth-shattering news. Over the past seven seasons, the average number of save opportunities per team is just over 63 per year. The difference between the best and worst years is two blown saves per season, which does not automatically mean a team loses the game, as they often come back and win, like the Los Angeles Angels did Thursday afternoon in Toronto.

Where it matters to baseball bettors is the best and worst teams in the big leagues. The top five teams in saves are as follows. (Thru June 3, rounding up numbers)

1) Cincinnati - 93 percent
2) Texas – 85 percent
3) Boston – 83 percent
4) N.Y. Mets – 73 percent
5) Philadelphia – 73 percent

This group is not necessarily the best teams in baseball; nonetheless they have unique quality every one laying down money wants to see. Collectively, these teams are +29.8 units. When handicapping games, why this is important is if any of these teams have a favorable to somewhat favorable pitching matchup and they can enter the later innings with a lead, chances are they will close the deal with set-up man and closer.

Value is also to be found on the bottom end of the spectrum, playing against teams that have lamentable bullpens. In this case, if the starting pitching matchup is close to dead even and the teams are fairly equal in hitting numbers, the club with relief pitchers that struggle to hold opponents at bay, are intriguing plays. With these types of teams, a one or two run lead means it is slightly better then 50-50 they will hold the advantage and deliver a winning wager. Here is current bottom five teams in save percentage.

30) Washington - 38 percent
29) Houston – 52 percent
28) Toronto 53 percent
27) Cleveland 55 percent
26) Florida 55 percent

This grouping has lost 35.1 units in combining to blow 52 saves already this year. Though the Blue Jays are actually in the black for units won, they have given up leads, only to rebound and come back to win in last at bats.

While saving games is important, it helps to have depth and quality hurlers who have a great deal to offer. For example, the starting pitcher is cuffed around for five runs in four innings and is pulled. The particular team trails 5-1, but because of the long reliever and his cohorts shut down the opposition, sometimes they end up scoring enough runs and can sneak away with a victory, because the pen held the fort.

There are two units of measurement to identify the entire bullpen, earned run average and WHIP. (For those who forgot about how WHIP is formulated- Divide the number of hits and walks by the number of innings pitched)

The ERA is a fairly accurate method of looking at a bullpen, from a broader perspective. Generally speaking, most good teams will have lower ERA’s and most bad teams will have high ERA’s. Among the weakness of this statistic, it does not take into consideration the affects of ball parks (pitcher’s parks vs hitter’s parks). If a reliever allows the tying or winning run to score, the previous pitcher is held accountable, not the hurler that gave up the hit, which is why the stat “holds” was invented.

Here is the top and bottom teams in each league by ERA’s for bullpens.

National League
1) N.Y. Mets
2) Milwaukee
3) Cincinnati
4) St. Louis
5) L.A. Dodgers

12) Houston
13) Chic. Cubs
14) Arizona
15) Colorado
16) Washington

American League
1) Boston
2) Chic. White Sox
3) Seattle
4) Tampa Bay
5) Oakland

10) Texas
11) N.Y. Yankees
12) Cleveland
13) Baltimore
14) L.A. Angels

Nearly all the National League teams are in relative harmony with the teams’ records; this is not the case in the American League. Four of the top five teams in ERA bullpens in the junior circuit are average to mediocre clubs. Possibly the reasons for this is starting pitching is sordid or the offensive doesn’t generate enough runs, even if the pen does its job. In the bottom assemblage is first place teams the Yankees and Rangers. Both clubs have suffered blowouts that inflated numbers and play in what is today pitcher’s parks. While the jury is still out how good these bullpens will ultimately be, they have been masked in sorts by high scoring offenses.

This is where the WHIP comes into play to tie up the loose ends. The WHIP counts from first pitch by any reliever. Give up a hit or walk, it matters and here we can start to understand why certain ERA’s differ from the WHIP. The Yankees WHIP is 6th in the AL, more in line with how they are playing. The White Sox, they fall to 7th when using this as measuring stick, suggesting they are not quite as effective and the offense is lagging. The most notable differential is the Mariners, who have the 3rd best ERA, yet are next to last in WHIP in the AL. This shows their pitchers create problems for themselves. For the most part the Seattle relievers have avoided major disasters; however, over the course of 162-game season, chances are this will catch up with any team.

Here is how the WHIP’s shake out in each league.

National League
1) Milwaukee
2) St. Louis
3) Philadelphia
4) N.Y. Mets
5) Cincinnati

12) Chic. Cubs
13) Arizona
14) Pittsburgh
15) Colorado
16) Washington

American League
1) Toronto
2) Boston
3) Tampa Bay
4) Minnesota
5) Oakland

10) Texas
11) Baltimore
12) Kansas City
13) Seattle

14) L.A. Angels

Knowing what are the best and worst bullpens, from a complete perspective, will add real dollars to wagering account over the course of a long season.