Scintillating Sunday

Playing against what will be the No. 1 team in the country tomorrow was not a trepidant idea; nevertheless it was the best system which led to 1-2 day. Today, we look to bounce back with 32-8 hockey system along with an excellent NBA Top Trend. Felt sorry for Sal, at least from our perspective, since he was 8-1 yesterday, but his top play was a loser. Ken likes the total in one of the NFL games today. Good Luck

What I thought last yesterday – Clark Kellogg was harping on Texas not playing well offensively for their reasons for losing. While there is truth in that, the fact remains in watching them, the Longhorns do a poor job in stopping dribble penetration off the wings and allow entry passes into the post (within seven of the basket) way to easily. Personally, I think the defense, not the offense is what needs more attention.

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Free Hockey System -1) Play Against all teams against the money line like Carolina playing their third game in five days, a terrible team (30 percent or less win percentage), playing a team with a losing record in the second half of the season. The NHL system is 32-8 and even 80 percent.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The L.A. Lakers are 11-1 ATS in road games versus defensive teams allowing 103 or points a game in the second half of the season over the last three years.

Free Football Pick -3) Ken of the LCC is 6-1 in the NFL Playoffs and has the Under in Jets and Colts today.

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Jets at Colts Preview

Normally this time of year in professional football, everyone is talking about how important quarterback play is and how the teams matchup. Well, New Yorkers are often known for their bravado and as it turns out the Jets have the perfect coach to make believers out of the players and fans alike. Rex Ryan may not understand the mathematical workings of the NFL playoff system (after losing to Atlanta he said his team had almost no chance to make the postseason) but he’s able to rally the troops with the familiar “us against the world” refrain, used expertly by his father Buddy Ryan and George Allen before him.

It’s the clichéd “respect card” that has been reformulated in green and white by coach Ryan, winning seven of last eight (7-1 ATS) which has his players believing him like the pied piper. Ryan’s conviction had him making comments like New York should be favored for the Super Bowl and his logic is correct based on statistical information.

The Jets (11-7 SU & ATS) have the best defense in the NFL and attack opposing quarterbacks like a siege of numerous battalions. While seven or sometimes eight Jets are on the fly, a confident group of pass defenders led by Darelle Revis back them up. The Flyboys cornerback sticks to receivers better than Super Glue and helps the secondary provide better coverage than Safe Auto’s Justin Case. New York is 8-2 ATS on the road against teams with winning home record.

New York also runs the ball better than anyone in the NFL averaging 172 yards per game. Between the defense and running game that is the foundation of Ryan’s belief system, OC Brian Shottenheimer is on a roll as play-caller, protecting Mark Sanchez and calling the right plays which the Jets have been able to execute.

The Indianapolis Colts organization is completely different. They give away undefeated season in hopes of winning a bigger prize. The Colts (15-2, 11-6 ATS) let their play on field do the talking, however don’t for second think they haven’t been listening to all the huffing and puffing coming out of the Big Apple. A person not familiar with professional football might surmise the Jets are the favored and better team by reading newspaper and online accounts of the AFC Championship. Indianapolis has been to a Super Bowl in the last 39 years and actually won something, New York can’t make the same claim. The Colts have to be simmering in listening to all the talk.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Indianapolis as eight-point favorites with total of 40 and they are 8-2 ATS after one or more consecutive wins against the spread this season. Home favorites of seven to nine points in conference championships are 11-3 ATS in last 14 outings. While Peyton Manning will be blitzed extensively, he’s arguably the smartest quarterback in the game. His impeccable film study allows him to find and edge or two against any defense.

Expect the Colts to test Revis early with Reggie Wayne. Though Revis has stopped virtually every top receiver he has faced this season, Wayne is slightly different type of pass catcher, not a home run threat per se, his real expertise is running crossing routes, which is more difficult for any defender to cover. The Jets safeties are average in pass coverage and Indy won’t make the same mistake San Diego did with Antonio Gates. Because a tight end is often the hot read in blitzes, Dallas Clark will shorten his routes and with film study, see were the weakness are in the Jets secondary, look for him to have big game for Colts who have covered last four games as 3.5 to 10-point favorites.

The Colts defensive run numbers are not imposing; however they only allowed 17.7 points a game a Lucas Oil Stadium this season. Their goal is to force third down and five and longer all day long.

Sanchez has played better in each of two playoff games, but can his teammates protect from being too excited being 60 minutes away from Super Bowl? The offensive line will gain rushing yards with Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene toting the pigskin, the question is can they score once on the Indianapolis side of the field. Gang Green is a splendid 7-3 SU and ATS on the road and riding the crest of emotion. New York’s defense will look to stone a meager Colts running game and try to contain Wayne and Clark and smack around young receivers Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon, causing them to lose concentration in the moment to stall Indy’s offense.

This game has Under written all over it and the line has dropped precipitously from opening 41points. The Colts are 37-21 UNDER when they rush for 50 to 75 yards, which is a distinct possibility and the Jets are 22-9 UNDER in road games vs. good passing teams averaging seven or more passing yards per attempt. A system to consider is playing on home teams when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points and they out-score opponents by seven or more points a game, after allowing nine points or less last game. (29-8)

So You Think Coaching is Fun?

f your occupational haven is a sideline or bench where you instruct a gathering of professional playgrounders, it might be time to update your resume. More heads have rolled among the collection of NFL and NBA coaches over the last six weeks than the guillotine claimed during the French Revolution.

Okay maybe not that many, but an unprecedented total of 10 locker room leaders between the two leagues have felt the heavy, cold blade cast down upon their livelihoods.

The NBA terminations began on November 22, when the newly-spawned Oklahoma City Thunder fired its first fearless leader, P.J. Carlesimo, after starting the season with an abysmal 1-12 record. (Note- picture was taken when he was hired, you can tell by background, might have had same smile after leaving OKC mess)

Not to be outdone, the Washington Wizards quickly followed suit and dismissed their one-win coach, Eddie Jordan, just a few days later.

The firestorm would gain strength and continue its tumultuous tear through December, victimizing Sam Mitchell (Toronto), Randy Wittman (Minnesota), Maurice Cheeks (Philadelphia) and Reggie Theus (Sacramento).

We as sports fanatics cherish records and the discharging of six NBA coaches before Christmas provided us with another. Six pink slips through seven weeks were the most in league history and the mark is only three firings short of the season record, established during the 2004-05 campaign.

Of course NBA coaches aren’t as tenured as MLB or even NFL mentors, but the firing bug has not eluded the pigskin front offices with four footballers being ousted in the last couple of weeks.
The inevitable “you’ve had your chance, your time is up” reasoning fell on Romeo Crennel after following up a hopeful 10-6 Cleveland Browns year in 2008 with a measly four victories in 2009. Rod Marinelli didn’t have a prayer to keep his job after concluding a perfect 0-16 season with Detroit and becoming the laughingstock of the National Football League. Expect to see steady turnover inside the front office and locker room of the Lions in the coming months.

Eric Mangini was also relieved of his duties after three seasons with the New York Jets, but perhaps the most surprising move came rumbling through the Rocky Mountains of Denver.
After 14 seasons, two Super Bowl victories, 13 playoff appearances and a composite record of 146-91, head coach and vice president of operations Mike Shanahan was asked to collect his belongings.

That one was kind of a head-scratcher considering Marvin Lewis and Herm Edwards still have jobs, but I don’t make the million-dollar decisions.

I am simply here to offer my unscientific explanation for this firing phenomenon and it is summed up in one word…PANIC.

Everyone seems to be in a constant state of panic these days. I can’t trounce through a single day of my life without hearing dire news about the volatile stock market, the lack of job security, food inflation or gas prices.

This panic is undoubtedly a direct result of the economic plague engulfing our nation, and sports owners and general managers are not immune to it.

They envision empty stadium seats and vacant vendor lines so they become desperate.
If a team is stagnant, the ownership feels pressure to grab a hold of their fans quickly and firmly so why not alter the bench chemistry to rekindle interest and create a buzz? Drama sells and there is no better way to create drama than handing a leader his walking papers, just ask the Broncos.

I am not saying this is the only reason for the head coaching chaos. Front office feuds, dissatisfied players and inflated expectations are all constant and plausible explanations for this barrage of firings.

Economists have projected 2009 to be one of the most financially dismal years in decades and this foretelling doesn't exclude the sports we embrace. The NFL trimmed 150 jobs off its budget, the NBA digested 80 members of its entity, NASCAR teams are scaling down to the bare bones and the Arena Football League suspended operations after 22 years of existence which will toss thousands onto the unemployed heap.

As evidenced by the recent turmoil, head coaches are at the front of the firing line and may need to brace themselves because the guillotine could continue to lop heads at an alarming rate in 2009.

Freelance writer Scott Cooley makes his first 2009 appearance here.

Betting Keys to Five Key NFL Games in Week 15

The regular season is winding down and so are the remaining opportunities to keep winning wagers in the NFL. The NFC South has three of its teams involved in crucial contests, which will be critical to who ends at the top of the division and who makes the playoffs. The New York Jets have been grounded with a pair of defeats and will attempt to take flight again and keep share of the division lead versus AFC East rival Buffalo. Arizona won first division title since Bruce Springsteen released instant classic ‘Born to Run” album and now have to deal with celebrity and how to prepare for postseason and teams on the remainder schedule like Minnesota. Finally, Pittsburgh and Baltimore renew un-pleasantries, with extra ambulances and doctors on call. Bookmaker.com provides the Week 15 numbers.

Tampa Bay at Atlanta (Falcons -3, 44.5)

It’s inconceivable the Tampa Bay defense will be steamrolled a second straight time, even facing Michael Turner. Similar to Carolina, Atlanta prefers to move the chains and try a few deep balls. The Buccaneers defense has to control third downs or it could be another tough road loss. On offense Garcia needs more help from offensive line, to start running game and play-action passing. The Bucs are 11-4-1 ATS in recent battles. Atlanta leads the league in first quarter points with 94. This shows excellent planning and execution and home keeps the crowd in the game. The Falcons defense has to do better job against the run, permitting 123.4 yards a game the last five weeks. Make Tampa Bay one dimensional, which frees up John Abraham to rush Jeff Garcia. If Roddy White catches three long passes, good chance the favorite moves to 16-5-1 ATS in this southern showdown.

Buffalo at N.Y. Jets (Jets -7.5, 41)

Brett Favre has to load up on Red Bull or some energy drink, as once again his play is noticeably slipping late in the season. Opposing teams have devised ways to take away deep ball from Jets, with no burners and the secondary has more holes than Dunkin Donuts without a pass rush. When New York had five game winning streak, they scored on first possession, put the right plays together to make that happen again. Buffalo players are wondering why offensive coordinator Turk Schonert has gotten so pass happy, especially with two quarterbacks with limited ability in that persuasion. The Bills work better running the pigskin and blending the pass. Buffalo has covered seven of last 10, the defense will need to win field position battle and force two or more miscues.

Denver at Carolina (Panthers -7.5, 48)

Mike Shanahan’s team has been impossible to figure, however they might bloviate having the opportunity to attack Carolina corners with Jay Cutler tossing the ball, after seeing how open Tampa Bay receivers were down the field. By now the Broncos don’t worry whose running, with turnstile efforts this season. Carolina can be run on. Denver has actually been better against the run with 4-3 setup and safety near the line of scrimmage. If they fail to stop Panthers back, Broncos drop to 1-9 ATS in December after a pair of wins and covers. This is Carolina’s last home game and NFC South teams are 23-2, 18-6-1 ATS at home in 2008. Off the huge win last Monday, a drop in intensity would wipe out potential importance of Giants game next week. John Fox’s squad can control the line of scrimmage on both sides in this matchup and bludgeon Broncos with Steve Smith down the field.

Minnesota at Arizona (Cardinals -3, 47)

Tavaris Jackson will get the call for the Vikes who want him to play like he did last week in relief of Frerotte. If Arizona could, they would wear Detroit helmets, as Adrian Peterson has five fumbles against the Lions this season. Peterson knows he has to secure the ball better, with Cardinals swooping in to swipe the ball away. The Vikings run of the mill secondary will need Jared Allen and others to rattle Warner. The Cardinals will want to improve certain areas before playoffs (does that sound odd), while keeping wins coming. Kurt Warner has eight turnovers in last four games, not acceptable. The running game has to rise to well below average instead of 32nd. A hundred yard effort against Minny would be big confidence boost. Play like a division champion at home against a visitor that is 2-6 ATS against teams with winning home records.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore (Ravens -2.5, 34)

Pittsburgh is well renowned for playing with intensity, however this stage will have Baltimore stoked. The Steelers must match the Ravens and stop them at the point of attack when running the ball. Flacco was often confused last week, with Dick LeBeau calling the defense he’ll do whatever he can to the rookie to keep in same state of mind. Baltimore has to consistently win first and second down, Keeping Joe Flacco in manageable situations and Ben Roethlisberger in third and long. Baltimore will take stupid penalties when they are too juiced up, they must maintain poise and not give away free yards to Steelers. The Ravens are 10-2 ATS in home games after three or more consecutive wins.