Top seeds picked to previal out West

The chalk followed suit in the West Regional with top seeds Syracuse and Kansas State both victorious. Each are a solid betting choice to meet in an Elite 8 matchup on Saturday, yet both will encounter clubs that are NCAA tournament tested and carrying a strong belief this is their chance to shine in what has been unpredictable tournament in 2010.

Syracuse vs Butler

The status of Arinze Onuaku is presently listed as doubtful, which doesn’t help the Orangemen (30-4, 21-9 ATS) as they look to move on in the tournament. Onuaku is a contributing scorer near the basket and though a mediocre free throw shooter, he still draws fouls against the opposing team and is exceptional rebounder in their 2-3 zone. His ability to control the glass has set up Syracuse to push the ball offensively, often finding the right player in motion towards the basket with a sharp, on-target pass they led to easier baskets for Orange shooters. Syracuse is 13-3 ATS in all tournament games over the last two seasons.

That leaves more of the burden to fall on Wesley Johnson and Rick Jackson specifically. Johnson has to rebound a little more and can’t cheat out quite as much on misfires from the opposition. Jackson in turn has to be the Windex-man (long-time Dick Vitale favorite saying) and has to work a little harder on the offensive glass for put-backs. Off their high-octane effort against Gonzaga (87-65), Syracuse is 8-1 ATS in road games after a blowout win by 20 points or more.

Butler (30-4, 12-20 ATS) is a six-point underdog, with total of 138.5 at Bookmaker.com. The Bulldogs are playing with a real swagger; a 22-game win streak will do that for team. In spite of their phenomenal success, Butler was often mentioned as a play against team in both the first two games in the tournament and they played unafraid even the face of real adversity. F-C Matt Howard sat a good portion of the second half with four fouls against Murray State, yet the Bulldogs actually built a lead during that time, spreading the floor offensively and getting points from a variety of scorers including versatile Gordon Hayward and Shelvin Mack.

Butler is ordinary three-point team (34.1 percent), nonetheless has players capable of tickling the twine and is 21-7 ATS as an underdog.

Xavier vs. Kansas State

The Wildcats from Manhattan are looking better all the time. Kansas State (28-7, 21-9 ATS) was considered a darkhorse for a top seed until losing twice in final week of the regular season. However, obstacles might be falling to the wayside for the Wildcats to be considered a real championship club. Their nemesis Kansas is flushed; Syracuse and West Virginia have either ailing starters or have lost them all together. The Cinderella’s are presumed to strike midnight before long, leaving only a few worthy contenders.

Stellar guard play is a must to survive and advance in March and coach Frank Martin just might have the most dynamic duo since Batman and Robin. Jacob Pullen or Denis Clemente are both capable of boiling over and scoring points at per minute clip. In the painted area, Curtis Kelly and Jamar Samuels can both produce big nights, particularly if they're converting offensive rebounds into stick-backs. K-State is a 4.5-point favorite and is 18-6 ATS this season when bestowed with the honor.

Xavier’s is nobody’s fool, being only just one of two teams to make it to the Sweet 16 in each of the last three seasons along with Michigan State. Forget the talk of the Musketeers not being elite program. "I don't feel like we're a mid-major at all," said senior Jason Love, having been a part of this ride. "You look at our schedule and we play some of the best teams in the country."

Xavier (26-8, 22-11 ATS) is 8-1 ATS in a NCAA tournament games over the last three seasons and holds opposing teams to 40.7 percent shooting, yet are explosive enough to average almost 80 (79.3) points a contest. Sophomore guard Jordan Crawford led the A-10 in scoring with 19.6 points a game and has a complete package, being able find open teammates, defend effectively, and deliver big baskets when his team needs them throughout a game. Xavier is 14-3 ATS having won two of their last three games this campaign.

Two seeds are 18-5 SU taking on six seeds, with average winning margin 5.6 PPG.

Start your Sunday with these five matchups

By now your sleep pattern showed be seriously disrupted, waking yourself up screaming, “onions” from a Bill Raftery call or the occasional Dick Enberg “oh my” as the brain can’t properly rest with the constant rhythm of a basketball pounding the hardwood for hours on end. Additionally, in the other regions of the brain, you are going over why you bet a certain team or why you didn’t have the “onions” to take one you know you should have. Don’t despair, roughly one more eight hour segment to go before you can rest up, with five games coming in the early afternoon or late morning depending on your proximity.

Gonzaga vs. Syracuse 12:10E

The Orangemen answered one question; can they play without injured center Arinze Onuaku? The answer was yes, but Vermont doesn’t have anywhere near the talent level Gonzaga (27-6, 16-11-2 ATS) has. Even if Onuaku could go, he’ll have limitations as to what he can do, which means Wesley Johnson and Andy Rautins will have to carry the scoring load, with others like Scoop Jackson and Rick Jackson chipping in. Syracuse (29-4, 20-9 ATS) is a 6.5-point favorite at DiamondSportsbook.com and is a 9-2 ATS after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last game.

The Bulldogs ended up drawing two phenomenal defensive teams in the early rounds of the West regional, but at least the ‘Cuse likes to get out and run, more to Gonzaga’s liking. The Zags were exquisite in the first half against Florida State, building a 16-point lead, however fell into the Seminoles trap of slow down and needed always reliable Matt Bouldin to bail them out. With the total listed at 150, Gonzaga can play their more free-flowing style, but to win have to solve Jim Boeheim’s 2-3 zone. Gonzaga is 26-12 ATS as a neutral court underdog or pick.

1 vs. 8 seeds are 37-9 SU, winning by 9.3 points per game the last 25 years.

Georgia Tech vs. Ohio State 2:20E

As was documented yesterday, 10-seeds oft times present problems for No. 2 seeds, winning outright about 40 percent of the time. Georgia Tech (23-12, 16-12-1 ATS) was the sixth ACC team seeded 10th or worse since 1994 (out of seven), to pull off the upset in the first round. The Yellow Jackets have the athletes and inside power to make them a factor in any contest, however they must play at their own pace since they are 16-6 ATS when they attempt 54 to 62 shots. That means a large number of touches for Gani Lawal and freshman Derrick Favors.

Ohio State (28-7, 17-16-2 ATS) is more diverse offensively than Warren Buffet’s portfolio, making them a headache to defend. Everyone knows what Evan Turner can do, but when Jon Diebler hits seven of the purest three-pointers you have ever seen and defenses start leaning his way, that opens up William Buford and David Lighty to expand their games. The Buckeyes are a 6.5-point pick with total of 133.5 and they are 8-2 ATS playing against a team that wins 60% to 80% of their games this season.

The Yellow Jackets are 8-0 UNDER on a neutral court when the total is 130 to 139.5.

Michigan State vs. Maryland 2:30E

Round Two on Sunday resembles a Big Ten meet with four teams in action. The conference was believed to be improved this year and this is a swing game that will help determine if that belief was actually true. Michigan State (25-8, 12-20 ATS) got off a good start against New Mexico State, building a 13-point lead before seeing it all disappear to the more aggressive Aggies in the second half. The Spartans were overwhelmed by New Mexico State’s faster tempo and would have lost except for the Aggies impatience in late game shot selection and 13-22 mark from the free throw line. Coach Gary Williams more experienced team is unlikely to waste that opportunity if they reach that point and Michigan State is 5-15 ATS facing a club with a winning record this season.

Maryland’s (24-8, 17-10 ATS) win over Houston was workman-like, taking the Cougars best shots, while maintaining control. There's no question the Terrapins' success revolves around senior guard Greivis Vasquez, whose game has matured to the level of doing what it takes to win, instead of making sure his numbers are in order. Maryland will undoubtedly use full court or three quarter pressure on the Spartans earlier in the game to determine who they react. The Terps are 8-1 ATS in road conditions after playing consecutive games as a favorite and is 10-2 and 9-3 ATS in last dozen outings.

Maryland is a one-point favorite; however four seeds are 11-23 ATS since 1998.

Missouri vs. West Virginia 2:40E

Can Missouri (23-10, 15-12 ATS) ring the bell as an upset winner? If they bring the same intensity they played with Friday in beating Clemson they just might. The Tigers 75-60 loss to Nebraska in first Big 12 tourney contest had coach Mike Anderson thinking October, not March. The very next practice was a return to basics, including all the conditioning drills the players hate, but they got the message. Against Clemson they had 15 steals and 20 forced turnovers, which led directly to 20 points in 86-78 triumph. “Our teams typically start playing some of their better basketball right around late February, March,’’ said coach Anderson. “I guess we really turned up the intensity…” The Tigers are 15-4 ATS versus ball handling teams committing 12 or fewer turnovers a contest.

West Virginia (28-6, 14-19 ATS) hit the snooze button to start against Morgan State down 10-0, but were alarmed into reality by the soothing tones of coach Bob Huggins and buried the Bears the rest of the first half 38-17 on the way to 27-point win. The Mountaineers will have to show patience on offense in attacking Missouri and take advantage of opportunities once they break the press. West Virginia can’t become flustered either when Mizzou goes on 6-0 or 8-2 runs, that just their style. The ‘Teers are six-point favorites and are 13-2 ATS in a NCAA tournament games since 1997.

Cornell vs. Wisconsin 2:50E

The Big Red of Cornell (28-4, 17-10 ATS) ended the Ivy’s league’s 12-year drought of empty NCAA trips with a resounding performance against A-10 champion Temple. "Everyone was saying we were Cinderella or it's an upset. Not us," sophomore Chris Wroblewski said Friday after his toppled Temple 78-65 as three-point underdogs. Cornell spent the first half pushing the ball inside and once the Owls were forced to sag lower, the nation’s top three point shooting team unleashed the hounds and total nine 3-pointers. The team from Ithaca, NY is 10-1 ATS after playing a game as an underdog.

Wisconsin (24-8, 17-13 ATS) played average at best in holding off Wofford 53-49, nevertheless the Badgers showed their most important trait when it mattered most, poise. Wisconsin lost every bit of their early 10-point second half lead, but played solid defense in the closing minutes and made big shots to emerge victorious. The Badgers are reliable three-point defensive team and they will need to deliver. Wisky is a 4.5-point favorite and 8-1 ATS if opposing squad has win percentage of 80 percent or better.

The tournament has shown that 4-seeds taking on 12-seeds in this round win by four points a game, about the same as oddsmakers number.

Are the high seeds a good or bad wager Friday evening?

In the final sector of first round games, five teams with seeds five or higher are in action. Just five years ago or slightly more, the higher seeds were strictly play against, as oddsmakers loaded the points on the chalk, trying to bait the public into paying dearly for heavy favorites. Yet in the last several seasons, people got wise and took the points with over-stuffed dogs and cashed a number of winners along the way. This has forced oddsmakers to produce a truer number on the higher seeds, which in turn has made picking winners that much more challenging. What will tonight bring?

(1)Duke vs (16)Arkansas Pine Bluff

The Blue Devils are being talked about in some circles as a viable option as championship game participant. That is not exactly man bites dog material given Duke is the top seed in the South, but they are far and away the quietest from public perception No. 1 squad coach Mike Krzyzewski has ever had. Sports bettors have paid attention and have been betting the Blue Devils up significantly to 23-point at DiamondSportsbook.com.

Duke has kept getting better as the season trudged on. Coach K knew what to expect from Jon Scheyer, Kyle Singler, Nolan Smith and for the most part Lance Thomas. As the season continued, the Hall of Fame coach found ways to place Thomas in more productive offensive situations, the Plumlee brothers became ripe as a plum, playing with increased confidence and making Duke a force on the glass. If senior Brian Zoubek continues to march forward (averaging 10.1 boards in last 10 games), no reason the Dukies can’t improve to 6-2 ATS when favored by 13 or more since Dec. 15.

By now, most are familiar with the fact Arkansas Pine-Bluff lost first 11 games of the season, all on the road against mostly formidable competition. To their credit the Gold Lions showed heart and have won 18 of last 22. AR-PB isn’t going to knock off Duke, but they could cover the spot if they can continue to maintain +6 rebound margin.

(1)Syracuse vs (16)Vermont

The Orangemen are 16-point choice and they need to start fast to regain their swagger after losing last two trips to the hardwood. Syracuse needs infusion of confidence getting Wesley Johnson started and pounding the ball inside to whomever is on the court to open up shooting lanes. Dating back 13 years, the Orange is 7-0 ATS off two or more consecutive losses as a favorite.

Vermont won’t be a pushover, as they hold teams to only 39.7 percent shooting. The Catamounts have had time to breakdown workings of Syracuse’s 2-3 zone and must have top notch efforts from Marqus Blakely (two-time America East Player of the Year), Maurice Joseph and Evan Fjeld. It’s interesting to note despite Vermont not having many games showing up on big boards for bettors, they are 8-0 ATS after playing a game as favorite.

(2)Ohio State vs (15)UC-Santa Barbara

Sports talk personality Jim Rome called UCSB “the most dangerous 15th seed ever”, of course that was a whimsical quote having attended the university several years ago. The Gauchos will find out just how good they are against one of the best starting five’s in the tournament in Ohio State.

The Buckeyes have Evan Turner, as good a place to start as there is the country. Review these numbers. Ohio State is 21-4 and 17-10-1 ATS with Turner (0-6 ATS without him). His presence helps the other players get better shots and the Buckeyes are 26-2 and 17-11-1 ATS when they connect on a higher shooting percentage than opposing club. The magic number for the Buckeyes is 70, as they are 20-1 and 15-5-1 ATS when they reach that barrier and being a 17-point favorite with total of 132, suggests a 75-57 final score.

UC-Santa Barbara is presumed to put up a good fight; however they are 10-25 ATS versus solid shooting teams making 48 percent or more of their shots.

(4)Maryland vs. (13)Houston

The Terps will have ginourmous edge in facing Houston. Maryland has played 20 minutes of full effort basketball since March 6, the second half in their loss in the ACC quarterfinals against Georgia Tech. The Terrapins played like turtles, moving in slow motion against the Yellow Jackets in the first half and were deservedly beaten.

Houston on the other hand played four games in four days, which is what was needed to make first NCAA entrance in 18 years. The Cougars have to stay hotter than an August afternoon in Houston to win their fifth consecutive game. Houston heated up UTEP in the C-USA championship game with 12 treys, which was the 13th time this season they have drilled 10 or more deep tosses. Coach Tom Penders teams usually take care of the ball and are 20-6 ATS away from home after a game committing eight or less turnovers.

Maryland’s Gary Williams club is a 9.5-point favorite and they need to shake off last game as bad effort, figuring they were due, after knocking off seven straight opponents and posting 8-3 ATS record in previous 11. The Terps defense can swallow up the best of offensives, holding teams to 38.8 percent and are 7-1 ATS versus good ball handling teams committing 14 or fewer turnovers a contest after 15 or more games this season.

(5)Michigan State vs. (12)New Mexico State

The Spartans are favored by 13-points over New Mexico State and cover this handily if they listen to their coach and start putting in the kind of effort that took them to the national championship game a season ago. While it’s true Michigan State lacks a true center that is not a requirement for the Aggies. New Mexico likes to motor up and down the floor, but defense is not in fashion in Las Cruces, as they concede 77.8 points per game (while scoring 78.6 PPG) and allow foes to ring up 46.7 percent shooting away from southern New Mexico. The Spartans are 21-8 ATS away from East Lansing when they score 75 to 80 points.

If Michigan State continues to be sloppy with the ball (14 turnovers a game), they could have a game on their hands. The Aggies are not a so-called mid-major that holds the ball and tries to limit possessions to slow down superior opponent; these guys are athletes and like to run. Guard Jahmar Young is a creator and an All-WAC performer at 20.5 points per game. His running mate is Jonathan Gibson and the duo combines for average of 38 points per contest. New Mexico State wants to play fast and is 8-1 ATS after two or more Under’s and the Spartans are 0-7 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 12.5 to 15 points.

Michigan State does the job by keeping N.M. State out of the lane area and allowing them to fall in love with three point heaves, which they are prone to do. If the Aggies are not dropping long shots and can’t earn what they need within 15-feet of the basket, the total of 148 fits the Spartans when the numbers fall between 140 to 149.5, showcasing 14-5 ATS mark.

System predicts NCAA Champion

The field of 64 is set; you like many people have filled out numerous brackets in a variety of pools and now it is time to start breaking down the various first round matchups, looking for edges and spotting those potential early round exits by favorites. Having the benefit of using the point spread helps in many cases and mustering up the courage on money line dogs is another way to make hard currency when betting college basketball. But what about the “home run” wager, picking the winner of the entire NCAA Tournament, which can offer a decent payout depending on the winner.

Even with the large field, most years, around 10 teams have legitimate chance of winning six games in a row. Long shots are great; however they don’t bring home the cash betting futures. In the last 13 years, only teams seeded 1, 2 or 3 have emerged as champions. Lute Olson’s 1997 Arizona Wildcats were the last team that was not among the top tier of teams as a four-seed. In the 1980’s, we had Danny Manning and the Miracles in 1988 as a sixth-seed and Jim Valvano’s incredible stretch in 1983 with North Carolina State.

Each year, the litany of ways to select a champion is trotted out. Among the various aspects that are all noteworthy are veteran players, point guard play and defensive shooting percentages. Each in their own right holds value and opens the window to opportunity.

A few years ago, I heard ESPN analyst Jimmy Dykes doing a game late in the season and he was talking about what characteristics make up a NCAA champion. I happened to be taping that game and able to save the information and do the research.

Here is his list and what has occurred.

• 9 of 9 past champions had a 10 or more games winning streak
• 8 of 12 past champions won their conference tournament
• 20 of 22 past champions had NBA player 6’8 or taller
• 21 of 22 past champions had NBA a guard

It is important to understand what each of these points mean. First, if a team has a long winning streak of 10 or more, to whatever degree, they must be a good team. This season, 24 teams that made the field of 65, have won this many games in a row. Some teams could schedule their way into this many wins consecutively; however in reviewing this list, you see this consists primarily of college basketball squads that ruled there conferences.

Number of consecutive wins: (Note- Four teams has two such streaks)

20 – Butler
19- Kentucky
17 – Murray State, Texas, Utah State
16 – UTEP
15- New Mexico (12), No. Iowa, Siena, BYU
14- Kansas (13), Purdue (10)
13- Wofford
12- Syracuse (11)
11- Morgan State, No. Texas, Oakland U. Sam Houston St., Villanova, West Virginia
10- Temple, Vanderbilt, Kansas State

The most notable absence from this list is No. 1 seed Duke. If one believes in the power of the numbers, than the Blue Devils are a non-factor, missing the top criteria.

From this point, we move to conference tournament champions. This is where we can start really eliminating teams. Let’s be honest, its obvious Wofford, Morgan State, No.Texas, Oakland and Sam Houston State have no shot at winning six games in a row against this field, thus we can eliminate that group from the field.

That leaves us with six teams that met the first and second variable that would at least in theory have chance to win the championship. Those teams would be West Virginia, No. Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Temple and Butler.

The next areas are somewhat subjective, however I watch a ton of college basketball (yes I have a life and wife) and went through a number of websites that discuss players with professional potential that are likely to be drafted in the NBA.

Starting with West Virginia, DeSean Butler has been in many discussions for national player of the year and looks the part of NBA player; nonetheless he is listed at 6’7, falling literally just short of this criterion. 6’9 Devin Banks might blossom in the years ahead, but has not yet been given such prominence. The Mountaineers have good college guards, yet nothing that appears to be pro material.

Northern Iowa has two players that might be better suited to play in the D-League or overseas in C Jordan Eglasedar and F Adam Koch. The Panthers have smallish guards that shoot the ball well from the perimeter and handle the rock, yet they lack the size or quickness to be next level players.

Bill Self is one of the best recruiters in the country and does he have talent. Cole Aldrich is sure-fire first round selection whenever he comes out and the Morris brothers (Marcus and Markieff) are 6’8 or 6’9 and getting better on regular basis. Sherron Collins is border-line to be NBA guard at 5’11, but that doesn’t mean he won’t be on NBA roster and be a like former Jayhawks guard Jacque Vaughn. The more likely candidate from the Kansas backcourt to draw a salary playing pro ball is freshman Xavier Henry.

You don’t have to have a “Basketball Jones” diploma to see John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins and Patrick Patterson will all probably be playing for one of the 30 NBA teams next season, since most presume they are all coming out. Another year or two and 6’10 Daniel Orton will be joining his Kentucky teammates, along with possibly a couple more off of John Calipari’s squad.

Butler has the longest winning streak in college hoops and is battled tested. Are they really good enough to win a NCAA Tournament, most likely not, but that hasn’t stopped NBA scouts from getting a closer look at sophomore Gordon Hayward. Also, guard Shelvin Mack has a number of positive qualities and like Hayward is just second year player who as of yet does not have a ceiling on his talent.

Temple has a pair of dandy guards in Ryan Brooks and Juan Fernandez. Brooks is a senior and his name doesn’t show up in any draft-nik websites I went through. Fernandez is a good looking player, but seems to be more in the discovery stage in terms of his ability. 6’9 Levoy Allen’s stock is on the rise, but similar to Fernandez, is still moving up the charts for NBA prospects, not on them.

While this might be more boring than oatmeal, Kansas and Kentucky are the two teams that meet all four quadrants of this study. While it is more fun to pick the right team from out of the pack, choosing the right winner is more important. Hope this helps you make a greater evaluation as to what teams could be the NCAA national basketball champions. Good Luck.

Kansas the favorite and how the rest shakes out

This is in many ways one of the most unusual years in college basketball and possibly it might be a sign of future events as it moves along. Kansas was the deserved No.1 seed of the whole tournament and while West Virginia made a late push, all four top seeds have earned their position at the top of respective brackets. (We all know who Ashley Judd likes)

This year more than ever, no whining about the teams that didn’t get in, if it weren’t for the usual upsets by teams that end up winning conference championships, it would have even harder to fill the field of 65 teams, since all the teams that didn’t make it had more than enough bad losses to offset what qualities wins they manufactured.

My eyes are blurry from watching over 150 college basketball games this season and this is whom I see in the Sweet 16, starting in the Midwest region.

In March, you need a number of factors to win six games and be crowned the kings of college basketball. At the top of the list is talent and this why coach Bill Self continues to win everywhere he goes, the man can recruit. Kansas (32-2, 14-16-1) has a terrific point guard in Sherrod Collins, size and scoring in the paint with Cole Aldrich and the Morris brothers and Xavier Henry has his sweet looking three-point shot back. Kansas wins be 18 points a game and was a nation’s best 8-1 against the RPI’s Top 25. Lehigh (22-10) won the Patriot League regular and postseason, but should not provide much opposition; however being 26-point underdog could draw wagering support.

I was surprised to see Northern Iowa (28-4, 21-10 ATS) as a ninth seed, as they were a Top 30 team all season and won the Missouri Valley regular season and postseason tourney. The Panthers concede just 54.3 points per game and might feel underappreciated against UNLV (25-8, 19-12 ATS) who has to have guard Tre’Von Willis at 100 percent after suffering mildly sprained ankle in MWC semis. No. 8 seeds are just 46-54 against No.9 seeds and Northern Iowa is a 1.5-point underdog and will try and win NCAA game for the first time in 20 years.

Michigan State (24-8, 12-19 ATS) will have some early problems with athletic New Mexico State (22-11); however the Aggies are a mirage of sorts, winning by less than a point per game (+0.8) despite 22 victories and coughs up 77.8 points per game. The Spartans are 13-point favorites and need point guard Kalin Lucas to regain form prior to injury to move beyond this contest.

Rumors around Houston had coach Tom Penders on the bubble, to keep his job that is, instead the Cougars are in NCAA Tournament for first time in 18 years. Houston (19-15, 14-16 ATS) has the nation’s leading scorer in Aubrey Coleman and fellow guard Kelvin Lewis can also bury shots, it will be how they defend Maryland (23-8, 16-10 ATS) that will make the difference as nine-point underdogs. Before lame effort against Georgia Tech in ACC quarterfinals, the Terps has won nine of ten (8-2 ATS). A refocused Maryland and Greivis Vasquez could score a bundle on Houston off four games in four days. How about first to 100 wins.

Ohio State (27-7, 17-16-1 ATS) might have the best five players with diverse skills in the country, led by Evan Turner. UC-Santa Barbara (20-9, 17-11 ATS) was Big West champs and has conference player of the year Orlando Johnson, but can the Gauchos (nickname is a top seed for certain) handle Buckeyes ability to score in bunches? Linemakers are saying no with Ohio State a 17-point chalk.

The 7 vs.10 matchup in the Midwest is delightful study contrast in styles. Oklahoma State (22-10, 15-10-1 ATS) is guard-oriented, with their sharp-shooter James Anderson and Georgia Tech (22-12, 15-12-1 ATS) plays best going inside to Gani Lawal and Derrick Favors. The Yellow Jackets commit way too many turnovers, which is why they are probably 1.5-point dogs, in spite of ability to control the lane.

No.3 Georgetown (23-10, 17-12 ATS) is one the best teams in the country when their top three players are “on” like they were in Big East tourney. Too much power and size for Hoyas, but the dynamic guard duo of Armon Bassett and D.J. Cooper for Ohio U. (21-14, 18-12 ATS) could make it interesting as 13-point underdogs if they can combine for 50 or more points.
San Diego State (25-8, 18-13 ATS) to upset Tennessee (23-8, 13-17 ATS)? Not sure as sixth seeds are 69-31 SU over 11th seeds and the Aztecs are pitiful 61.7 percent from the free throw line. The Vols can play defense (39.4 percent), however San Diego State is 11-7 SU and ATS away from home.

Midwest Region Sweet 16 teams – Kansas Maryland Ohio State Georgetown

West Regional Round 1 Betting Preview

Syracuse (28-4, 19-9 ATS) was sent out West after losing last two games, which might be to their benefit. The Orangemen have had time to get healthier, which is very important for Arinze Onuaku (reports are he will miss first game). No No.1 seed has ever lost to a No. 16 (100-0), but Syracuse lost to Vermont (25-9) a few seasons ago in the first round as a fourth seed. The Orangemen didn’t lose a game outside the RPI Top 50, is 10-3 ATS away and is posted 17.5-point favorite.

They will face the winner of Gonzaga (26-6, 15-11-2 ATS) and Florida State (22-9, 8-18 ATS), where something has to give. The Zags are fifth in the country in offensive field goal percentage (49.1) and the Seminoles are first in field goal percentage defense (37.4). Gonzaga’s defense is better than Florida State’s offense; nevertheless the Noles are still a 1.5-point favorite.
UTEP (26-6, 14-14 ATS) was upset by Houston in C-USA final, however it was their third game in 36 hours and they were dead in their sneakers at the end when they lost. That won’t be the case against Butler (28-4, 13-19 ATS), who has issues with athletic teams. The Bulldogs can’t run and gun with the Miners or they fall in classic 5 vs. 12 matchup, with the higher seed run of the mill 20-16 SU the last nine years. Butler is favored by 2.5-points at Bookmaker.com, however UTEP holds teams to 38.8 percent shooting and averages almost nine steals game. Upset brewing?

Another possible upset is fourth seeded Vanderbilt (24-8, 15-14 ATS) against Ohio Valley champion Murray State. Vandy is 3-3 SU in last six outings and the Racers shoot over 50 percent and hold opposing teams to 38.6 percent. The Commodores may win; nonetheless taking the three points with Murray State (30-4, 15-13-1 ATS) might be valuable.

The Sun Belt champs North Texas (24-8) like to play all 94 feet and could be troublesome for team looking ahead and are 17-7-1 ATS this year. Unfortunately, Kansas State (26-7, 19-9 ATS) rarely takes a night off with coach Frank Martin’s intensity and the Mean Green give up too many easy buckets in the paint. North Texas is on the receiving end of 16-points and could be above average first half wager.

BYU (29-5, 18-13 ATS) hasn’t been a factor in the tournament in recent appearances (last NCAA win was 1993), but that might change against very ordinary Florida squad. The Cougars are one of the most efficient offensive teams in the country and what they may lack in quickness; they at least have tall timber to compete in the lane with the Gators. Florida (21-12, 15-13 ATS) is 1-4 in previous five and in the immortal words of former New York Yankee great Yogi Berra, the Gators “play good enough to lose”. Line makers have Cougs by 4.5 over Gainesville gang.

Oakland U. (26-8, 6-8 ATS) is 20-1 since Dec. 28; however is 0-4 against teams in the tournament, losing by 27.2 points a contest. Pittsburgh’s demeanor will determine if they cover the spread, like when the Panthers (24-8, 16-11-2 ATS) lost to Indiana and at South Florida. Pittsburgh is not always pretty, yet coach Jamie Dixon strives to squeeze the most out is talent and the Cats are 10-point faves.

Xavier (24-8, 20-11 ATS) and Minnesota (21-13, 17-16 ATS) is intriguing conflict. Both teams are well-coached and play solid defense. The Musketeers are better offensively at 80 points per game and forward Jason Love has to be smart and not get into foul trouble; otherwise the edge goes to the bigger Golden Gophers who can score easier in the paint if Love is on the bench. For Hoosier Jamal Crawford is now part of the X-men and looks to show the Big Ten the wrong team is favored.

West Region Sweet 16 teams –Syracuse Murray State Kansas State Pittsburgh

South Regional Round 1 Betting Preview

It’s hard to call a top seed a dark horse, yet that is how this Duke (29-5, 18-14-1 ATS) team feels. Of the top 10 teams in the country over the last month, this is one squad that is unquestionably better today than a month ago; pencil them into Sweet 16 this tournament.

For the California (23-10, 19-13 ATS) and Louisville (20-12, 10-17 ATS) contest, assigning each a heads or tails might be the best way to choose a winner. Cal won regular season Pac-10 title in mediocre league, yet can’t discount good guard play and 8-2 SU and ATS finish. The Cardinals are too unpredictable from game to game to figure and could win or lose by 15 or more points. No wonder this game opened as a Pick.

Utah State (27-7, 19-10-1 ATS) is a good squad, but faced only three teams in the RPI Top 50 (1-2). The Aggies will take on the Aggies from Texas A&M (23-9, 18-10 ATS), who have many of the same qualities, except they are bigger and stronger and from a superior conference. Big teams with rebounders bother Utah State, yet they are still only a three point underdog.

Siena (27-6, 16-13-2 ATS) will be a popular choice to upset Purdue (27-5, 13-18-1 ATS) as four point dogs, who were putrid in Big Ten semis, being waxed by 27. Nevertheless, Boilermaker pride and stifling defense gives them a chance and people are thinking of prior Saints squads that had success in the tournament. This Siena team is not nearly as athletic.

Honestly was shocked to see Villanova (24-7, 18-12 ATS) a two seed with five defeats in last seven games. With Scottie Reynolds and other guards they do present matchup difficulties, but falter in the paint area offensively and defensively. Robert Morris (23-11, 3-4 ATS) will provide first game opposition as 18.5 point underdogs, led by freshman Karon Abraham. For trivia buffs, Robert Morris was known as the "Financier of the American Revolution" and first president George Washington lived in his mansion for his two terms in Philadelphia, which was then the nation’s capital.

Richmond (26-7, 19-10-1 ATS) and St. Mary’s (26-5, 20-9-1 ATS) is excellent confrontation, with the winner getting Nova. Both have been sharp plays as visitors, with Richmond 13-5 and St. Mary’s 9-4 against the spread. Two keys- How the Gaels contain guard Kevin Anderson and what the Spiders do with center Omar Samhan. Richmond is two-point pick.

The most complete No. 3 seed is Baylor (25-7, 16-9 ATS), with size and quickness all over the court and are 11.5-point faves over Southland Conference champions Sam Houston State (27-6), who distributes the ball well with a league leading 20.4 assists per game.

Baylor is presumed to take on the winner of Notre Dame (23-11, 17-10-1 ATS) and Old Dominion (26-8, 12-17-1 ATS) contest. The Monarchs hold opposing teams to only 57.1 points a game and really crash the offensive glass. The Irish change in style has meant more wins and improved defense. What club shoots better and has rebound edge is your winner.

South Region Sweet 16 teams –Duke Texas A&M Villanova Baylor

East Regional Round 1 Betting Preview

Can a team as young as Kentucky (32-2, 16-15 ATS) really win six strenuous games without cracking? If talent is best predictor, than the Wildcats certainly have a great shot with no less than three NBA players on the roster, with DeMarcus Cousins, John Wall and Patrick Paterson. Kentucky is a 20-point favorite over East Tennessee State (20-14) and after dispatching of them will face one of two fading teams in the second round.

Texas (24-9, 11-18 ATS) is the lowest seeded team at 8th that was ever No.1 in the nation in a given season and Wake Forest (19-10, 15-11 ATS) was heavily scrutinized, losing five of last six outings. The Demon Deacons are averaging measly 60.2 points a contest in their last five and connect on only 66 percent from the charity stripe. Texas is a 4.5-point favorite and as long as they have the lead the Longhorns are fine. However since January, Texas collapses like a folding chair went faced with adversity, how will they react Thursday?

Cornell (27-4, 16-10 ATS) might be a super pick, being one of the best Ivy League teams in years and playing Kansas even for 35 minutes and Syracuse close to the same early in the season. Cornell knocks down 48.1 percent from the field, which includes 43.4 percent from beyond the arc. What holds the Big Red back as four-point underdogs is facing Temple (28-5, 22-12 ATS), who won the A-10 and does all the same things Cornell does, with bigger and quicker athletes. The Owls hold opposing teams to just 27.8 percent from three-point land.

In the battle of W’s, Wisconsin (23-8, 17-12 ATS) should whip Wofford (26-8, 16-11 -2 ATS), yet the Terriers might have enough bite to keep it close as 10-point underdogs, having been victorious in 16 of last 17 (10-5-2 ATS). This might be the lowest scoring game of the first round.

West Virginia’s (27-6, 13-19 ATS) size and strength will be way too much for MEAC champ Morgan State (27-9, 5-5 ATS) and they will await the winner of Clemson (21-10, 14-14 ATS) and Missouri (22-10, 14-12 ATS).

This will be extreme battle of wills, as both are full court pressing teams, seeking to create chaos. Neither of these Tigers’ teams is as effective away from home, as Clemson is 7-8 SU (4-11 ATS) and Missouri is 6-8 SU and both see declining points per game in road uniforms. The club that commits the fewer turnovers and scores buckets on the backend of press is the victor. Oddmakers see this one very close with Clemson a one point choice.

New Mexico (29-4, 18-13-1 ATS) enjoyed a splendid campaign and is a well-deserved three seed. The Lobos had their 15-game winning streak snapped by San Diego State in MWC semi-finals, which will only work to help coach Steve Alford make his surprising club more humble starting a new season. New Mexico will have to be very aware of guard Anthony Johnson of Montana (22-9, 18-11), who scored 42 points in Big Sky tournament championship game. The Grizzlies are receiving nine-points in this one.

The Pac-10 was in danger as recently as three weeks ago of only sending one team to the tournament, when Washington (24-9, 14-18 ATS) started playing like the team the pre-season publications forecasted. The Huskies have won eight of nine and seven in a row, becoming Pac-10 champions, winning the post-season tourney. The complete turnaround has happened by being mentally tougher away from Seattle, having won six straight (5-1 ATS). They will face similar Marquette (22-11, 17-10 ATS) club that can also motor and is a two-point favorite. This contest involves two star players not everyone is familiar with, Lazar Hayward of the Golden Eagles and Quincy Pondexter of Washington and that alone is reason to watch.

East Region Sweet 16 teams –Kentucky Temple West Virginia Washington

CBB Tournament's Update

Friday March 12 6:40 AM

The madness of March continued last night and it might end up really costing different teams a NCAA berth. Kent State was the best team in the MAC this season and having seen them play, certainly was a team capable of beating a higher seeded team with their talent level. The Golden Flashes evidently thought they were ticketed for the MAC finals and were torpedoed by arguably the best backcourt in the MAC presently from Ohio U. The Bobcats duo of Armon Bassett (38 points) and D.J. Cooper built a 40-24 halftime time, survived Kent State comeback that got them to four points and cruised to 81-64 win as five-point underdogs.

If Kent State would have gotten to the conference finals and lost, it would hard to ignore them, however it has been since 1999 that the tournament committee has taken two teams from this league.

The Pac-10 is having its worst season in some time and all the publicity has been negative. Arizona State finished second in the conference, but most still felt they needed to win one more game to assure themselves of a bid. If you haven’t seen the Sun Devils play, their personnel can generously be described as limited, but coach Herb Sendek got more than what could have been expected, which also points towards the weakness of the league.

Right from the opening tip it was obvious Stanford had come to play and Arizona State had not. The Cardinal flew to 15-point lead with just under 12 minutes left in the game and won 70-61 as 7.5-point underdogs. That might have killed the Sun Devils tournament chances and the Pac-10 better hope Washington wins this tourney otherwise California might get the only bid.

One last thing on the Pacific 10. What this conference is going through might not be all that unusual in the future. Chances are UCLA, Arizona and USC will all improve in the next couple of years, yet this league is falling behind in recruiting, doesn’t have the “cool factor” and their tournament is joke attendance wise. Last night’s quarterfinals could not have had more than 3,000 people at the Staples Center, more resembling a SWAC contest than that of a major conference. In L.A. you could draw more than 3,000 people if word on the street was Kim Kardashian was going to jello-wrestle at Venice Beach.

It was not a good day to be on the favorites in the Big East and ACC on Thursday. In the Big Apple, Da'Sean Butler’s straight away, banked-in three-pointer at the buzzer helped one favorite make it to semis in the Big East, as third seeded West Virginia was among the four faves that failed to cover.

Only North Carolina’s ineptness in the final 10 minutes prevented all four underdogs from winning outright in the ACC’s opening day. Georgia Tech won 62-58 over the Tar Heels and either covered by a half point or was push depending on when they were purchased.

In Reno, NV, where sports betting is 100 percent legal, the favored teams from the WAC were 100 percent good, as the higher seeds all covered, and collectively beat the number by over 11 points on average, very chalky.

Overall, underdogs were 24-17 ATS on the day following teams that normally have lines on their contests, with 14 outright upsets.

You might rethink that future’s bet on Syracuse in case you missed it, no team has ever won the NCAA Tournament after losing first game in conference tourney.

Conference Tourney Betting Info -You Gotta Know

Don't have a lot of time to read thru all the information relating to conference tournament games and matchups. Well here is a brief look ahead at 12 tourneys, with concise, pointed info and few angles to consider, along with who should be playing in the title games from each conference. It's worth the time to take a few minutes to get your game face on.

Conference USA Preview – March 10-13

It’s a brave new world in C-USA as they prepare for their 15th postseason tourney. UTEP is the regular season champion and will look to unseat Memphis, who has won the last four tournaments. In fact, if anyone other than the Tigers’ wins, it would be just the second different team to win, with all other previous champions in other leagues. UTEP is the favorite, as they are suffered just one conference loss all year and have first Top 25 ranking since 1992. The Miners are also 9-3 and 8-4 ATS away from El Paso.

UAB and Memphis are legitimate threats, the Blazers 11-4 SU away from home and the Tigers have pedigree and experience, plus coach Josh Pastner will talk up tradition. Marshall has the size (6’11 Lee Whiteside) and three-point shooting ability to be dangerous, having won eight of last nine and are 9-3 ATS as visitors. The venue change should benefit Tulsa, who will be playing before home town fans. Jerome Jordan and Ben Uzoh are dynamic duo. Of the teams below the top five, only Southern Miss looks capable. The Golden Eagles are 12-3 ATS away and 10-3 ATS as underdogs, however have only three wins.

Quarterfinals underdogs are 9-3 ATS, the last three years.

Prediction: UTEP vs Memphis final

Championship -11:30ET, CBS

Pacific 10 Preview - March 10-13

This conference has enjoyed all the appeal of a republican’s view of President Obama’s health care plan. The league was supposed to be down and didn’t even meet those substandard expectations this season. California has the best overall talent and is the top seed and has never won this event, finishing second in 2006. USC will be on the sidelines with suspension, meaning the 8 vs. 9 winner draws the Bears. Washington was expected to compete for title, but proved to be too young and senior Quincy Pondexter did not enjoy stellar senior season. The Huskies were dogs on the road with 4-7 SU and ATS mark.

Arizona State finished second in the league, thanks to great coaching by Herb Sendek, with limited ability and could make title game on smarts and guile, something lacking in this conference. Honestly, it’s hard to make a case for any other teams and the crowds are usually sparse at the Staples Center when the Pac-10 has four or five good teams, which means this could resemble a New Jersey Nets home game. Best advice here is play underdogs, as many of the teams as evenly matched (stink).

Favorites of three to six points are on a run of 12-0 SU & 9-2-1 ATS in the Pac 10 Tournament.

Prediction: California and Washington final

Championship -6:00ET, CBS

Big 12 Preview - March 10-13

The 2010 tournament returns to original location, Kansas City, with a stacked field. Coach Bill Self’s club is the betting choice and they have been a consistent winner all season. This is not a great Kansas team (the one that won the title two years ago was better with more mature players), however that might be good enough in 2010. The scariest aspect of backing the Jayhawks is they have continually not buried teams. The 9-2 SU road record is impressive, however winning by 9.9 points per game is not.

Who can knock off Kansas? Baylor has quickness and strong front court, Missouri can score in bunches with pressing defense and Texas A&M has G Donald Sloan and adequate players in the paint. Oklahoma State has picked off the Jayhawks and has G James Anderson and other Cowboys’ sharp-shooters whom are treacherous. Texas has suffered too many injuries and still lacks guards to matter much. This leaves Kansas State, who has all the attributes to take down the Jayhawks, including great guard play. This should be fabulous tournament with several close games, lending value to underdogs, who could be better than average wagers.

Underdogs of six points or more are 37-21 ATS since 2000.

Prediction: Kansas vs. Baylor in final

Championship -6:00ET, ESPN

MAC Preview – Mar. 7, 10-13

Kent State has won this tournament four times since 2001 and will among the favorites again. The Golden Flashes have the mental makeup to win tight tilts and have blown out their fair share of MAC teams and are 5-1 SU and ATS as road favorites. The main competition figures to be division partner Akron, who is the defending champion. The Zips have plenty of zip and are 10-2 and 6-4 ATS off a spread loss. The West Division is strictly generic by comparison, however at least Central Michigan drew the higher seed as champ.

The first four games were played at higher seeded home sites this past Sunday and those winners will have the benefit of momentum, rest and preparation taking on teams at neutral site of Cleveland. Ohio U. and Buffalo can make noise being the top two scoring teams and Ball State is the best defensive team, holding opponents to 40 percent shooting. Nonetheless, Kent State and Akron have been so dominant this season, it’s difficult to look anywhere else for championship matchup.

The title tilt favorite is 9-3 SU and ATS and the SU winner is 12-0 ATS.

Prediction: Kent State vs. Akron in final

Championship -6:00ET, ESPN2

Mountain West Preview - March 10-13

The last few Mountain West tournaments have been little lackluster, however this 2010 version is setting up to be very competitive, as long as the chalk wins. New Mexico and BYU are the class the conference, both being ranked natioanlly the last seven weeks of the season. The Lobos are 11-2 and 7-4-1 ATS on the road and the Cougars are 13-3 and 11-5 ATS in same situation, winning by over 12 points per game. Just be careful with these two teams in the quarter-finals, as MWC favorites of nine or more an ordinary 8-7 ATS since 2002.

UNLV is again the host, which has been tremendous edge, emerging victorious three times and finishing second two other times on their home floor in seven years. San Diego State is also a threat because of their tenacious defense, allowing the fewest points in the conference. Difficult to imagine the Aztecs advancing far if they get in tight game, being last in the league in free throw shooting at just over 60 percent.

Favorites have done well in recent MWC tourneys, going 7-1 SU and ATS over the last three years in the semi-finals and title games.

Prediction: New Mexico and Las Vegas in final

Championship -7:00ET, Versus

Big East Preview - March 9-13

For the second straight season, all 16 members of the Big East will participate in this gala event. The first day will have the bottom eight teams in action and at least from talent perspective, Connecticut and Seton Hall are the best, but both have to play at faster pace to succeed. The four winners of the opening day move on to face seeds 5 thru 8 and this grouping is packing with some real quality. Though they might not be the most talented, Marquette and Notre Dame are playing the best, with the Golden Eagles 9-2 and 8-3 ATS and the Fighting Irish on 7-2 ATS run out.

In the quarterfinals, the heavyweights arrive and though it seems unlikely any in this group would lose, at least one underdog has won outright on average over the last dozen years. Let’s move Syracuse and Pittsburgh to semis, based on ability and Pitt’s exceptional record in March in New York. Looking for an upset, think Villanova, who is 2-3 in last five outings and 3-7 ATS since February.

This tournament has often seen one team make improbable run the last several years and only once has a team won back to back since 2000, which should eliminate Louisville. Favorites of seven or less are 9-2 SU and ATS the first two days.

Prediction: Syracuse and Pittsburgh in final

Championship -9:00ET, ESPN

Big West Preview – March 10-13

Many may not know or remember the Big West has held this annual event every year since 1976. One dependable aspect of this conference is 11 of the last 13 years, the champion or co-champion of the regular season has appeared in the championship game. That should mean UC-Santa Barbara or Pacific or both have a great chance to wind up playing for NCAA automatic bid. Cal-State Fullerton is the league’s top scoring team and is 8-3 ATS as a visitor, however lost all four games to the top two teams.

UC-Davis is up and down and their best trait is being 11-5 ATS against Big West foes. This competition will again be held in Anaheim. The previous five years, it’s been like nearby Disneyland for total players. Those on the UNDER are 23-9, 73.5 percent, with all the games coming in a full four points below the oddsmakers average total in games played.

This Big West bash is known for being competitive, as only 10 matchups have registered above 7.5-point spread in recent years and though the underdog is laughable 1-9, they are potent 8-2 ATS.

Prediction: UCSB and Pacific in final

Championship - 8:00ET, ESPN2

WAC Preview – March 11-13

Eight teams will be in Reno, NV for the WAC conference tournament. The University of Nevada finished tied for second in the league and will have the advantage of playing on their home floor. Utah State is the definite favorite as the league champion and was 11-5 ATS in conference action. Interestingly, all the other squads facing off in upstate Nevada are right around or above .500 against the spread, with the exception of the Wolf Pack who are 6-10 ATS. This could make underdogs a play with history to back it up.

Over the previous four tourneys, dogs have had plenty of bite with a 20-9 ATS record and the OVER has also been a strong play at 21-10. Beyond the top four seeds, Fresno State has the most talent, however difficult to throw much support their way since they are 3-12 SU as visitors. No. 4 Louisiana Tech will have chance to take down Utah State in semis should they get that far, having earned a split and covering both meetings. Nevada will have the home court edge over New Mexico State and last week won and covered over the Aggies. Nevada finished second to Utah State in last year’s tournament at the same Lawler Events Center and this could be the third meeting in five years with these same two schools.

Prediction: Nevada and Utah State in final

Championship -10:00ET, ESPN2

SEC Preview – March 11-14

This year’s SEC Tournament is like many from the past, with Kentucky a decided favorite as the top seed. Mississippi State also nabs a co-No.1 placement having won the SEC West. This year’s competition will still have a vast number of Wildcats fans in attendance, but it will also have a flavor of those from the Volunteer State, being played at the Sommet Center in Nashville, where Vanderbilt and Tennessee will be well represented.

The lesser teams in the conference are all obviously flawed, yet other than LSU, all have at least one positive attribute that makes them a dangerous dog. South Carolina has Devan Downey, Georgia is athletic (1-12 away from home however), Auburn and Arkansas are capable of scoring outbursts and Alabama is second in the conference in fewest points allowed. If any of these teams make the quarterfinals, consider them since underdogs are 8-3 ATS this round.

This still figures to be the Kentucky Invitational and teams in the title game are 8-1 UNDER with dog 5-3-1 ATS.

Prediction: Kentucky and Vanderbilt in final

Championship -1:00ET, ABC

Atlantic 10 Preview – March 9, 12-14

The A-10 tourney is known for mini-runs as only three teams (’97 St. Joseph’s, ’99 Rhode Island and ’03 Dayton) have not won consecutive championships or two of three since 1991. This year’s tournament could be one of the most exciting ever, with a number of strong teams at the top and the second level clubs capable of stringing together a number of wins. All season, two-time defending A-10 postseason champ Temple, Xavier and Richmond have shown to be the class of the conference. St. Louis, Charlotte and Rhode Island have all proven they can win a segment of games, with the Rams ability to score (2nd in the A-10) and winning road record (9-6) and the Billikens second in points allowed in the league.

The best teams will of course be favored and it could be profitable to watch them in the right situation, as double digit favorites are 9-0 and 7-2 ATS. The first round is always at the home higher seed and the home-standing favorite of seven or less points is 18-4 and 17-5 ATS. Once they get to Atlantic City, all bets are off (pun intended) and Temple and Richmond rematch from Feb. 6 (Spiders won 71-54) seems like a possibility.

Prediction: Temple and Richmond in final

Championship -1:00ET, CBS

ACC Preview – March 11-14

The Atlantic Coast Conference was created in 1953 and starting one year later, the ACC held a men’s postseason tournament, making it the one all others yearn to have for prestige and history. It has not been a banner year for the ACC, with a number of good squads, with just two standing above the fray. Duke and Maryland have been the finest, yet no team among the 12 members had a winning road record in conference. The Terps are 8-5 and 8-4 ATS on the road overall and the Blue Devils are 9-5 and 7-6-1 ATS in same spot.

The most intriguing team with the most to gain is North Carolina, who was playing better of late (until Duke massacre) and has to win out in order to defend their NCAA title. The other bottom teams in the standings seem to have little chance, as they have been in losing mode, with the exception of Boston College who has won primarily at home. Virginia Tech has bunched together wins to be considered for semi-finals and Florida State is a threat the way they play defense, if they can make shots.

Review this; ACC underdogs boast an overall mark of 44-23-3 ATS since 2003.

Prediction: Duke and Virginia Tech in final

Championship -1:00ET, ESPN

Big Ten Preview – March 11-14

It really has been a maniacal year in the Big Ten. Teams lost when they had every reason to win on their home court and underdogs off deflating losses bounced back immediately to win as head-scratchers. In the end, one team stood above the rest playing their best basketball of the season, Ohio State. The Buckeyes have won 10 of 11 (6-5 ATS) and have a versatile starting lineup led by Evan Turner that can thwart the opposition in various ways. Michigan State, despite its fine record, has disappointed, not being as strong as most thought. Purdue could very likely have won the Big Ten outright, however the loss of Robbie Hummel takes them from top five in the country to Top 20-30 range.

Two teams that are under the radar in this part of the world are Wisconsin and Illinois. The Badgers have their big man back in Jon Leuer and could put together a weekend streak and steal this deal. Illinois is physically capable with Demetri McCamey leading the Fighting Illini; it’s just a matter of the rest of the team being mentally strong to compete day after day. Pending seeds, nobody will want to see Penn State, who is 3-15 in league play, but 9-2 ATS on the road, losing by less than four points a game.

These games tend to wrestling matches and the UNDER has hit 60 percent the last three years.
Prediction: Ohio State vs. Michigan State in final

Championship -3:30ET, CBS

Say it isn't so, college hoops regular season ending?

It’s OK to feel a little choked up, real men do. The end of the regular season for college basketball is already here, it seems like football just ended and now this. But it’s fine, it’s time for March Madness, with more crazy twists and turns than Charley Sheen’s marriage to his wife Brooke. This is the time for fun and action, where a 15-point lead at halftime can dry up faster than a puddle of water up against an Arizona March sun. So take advantage of situation and don’t worry about what you don’t have, rather what you are about to enjoy. Lines from Bookmaker.com.

Saturday, Mar. 6

West Virginia at Villanova (-3.5, 151) 12:00E CBS

The impact on the Big East standings would be minimal, but for West Virginia (23-6, 12-16 ATS), this trip to Philadelphia is very meaningful. The Mountaineers are 6-4 and 4-6 ATS as visitors, lack a defining road win all season, with December victory at Seton Hall probably the best of the lot. West Virginia plays many of the aspects of basketball expertly, however they lack a true point guard and a shooter at the end of the game. West Virginia lost earlier at home to Villanova and is 1-5 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs. opponent as a favorite.

Has the lack of Wildcats scoring and defense in low blocks finally caught up to them The immediate answer would be yes, as Nova has fallen four times since Feb. 6. Opposing teams are brazenly attacking Villanova (24-5, 18-10 ATS) at the rim and coach Jay Wright’s team is drawing fouls like clicks to Megan Fox’s website. Most of the points in the lane come on dribble penetration or put-backs, not conventional scoring. The Wildcats are 21-11 ATS playing a team with a winning record past the mid-point of schedule since last year.

The straight up winner is 15-0 ATS dating back to 1999.

Kansas at Missouri (+3, 145.5) 2:00E CBS

The Jayhawks fell from No.1 and lost unbeaten regular season in the Big 12 at Oklahoma State and have one more treacherous stop left. They played outstanding for all about seven minutes in crushing Kansas State by 17 points and has one last conference clash. Kansas (28-2) travels to the home of their most bitter rival Missouri (22-8, 14-10 ATS), who lies in wait to conquer them. Coach Bill Self has been preaching at season, "We’ve got to have a killer instinct and bury people.” He’s seen his team routinely build 20+ point leads and win by less, which is a big reason why the Jayhawks are only 11-15-1 ATS. That should not be a problem in Columbia, however a 2-13 ATS record after winning 18 or more of their last 20 games over the last three seasons is.

Missouri’s in the Big Dance and an upset should improve their seeding dramatically. The Tigers are ferocious at home with 16-1 record (8-4 ATS), winning by 23.8 points per game. Mizzou’s backcourt is like an unmarked stove, you’re never sure what area is hot, and once determined, that player can stay hot until the next one emerges. Guards Kim English and Zaire Taylor are the most likely to heat up quickly, but sub Marcus Denmon has shown proclivity to ripping the chords also. Missouri needs its pressure defense to force miscues and turn them into points and are 8-2 ATS versus offensive clubs scoring 77 or more points game in 2009-10.

Missouri is 5-11 and 5-9-2 ATS in “Border Wars” since 2001 and the team with the higher three-point shooting percent is 16-0 SU.

Syracuse at Louisville (+1, 145) 2:00E ESPN

The last team to finish 9-0 on the Big East road was Connecticut 11 years ago and they went on to win national championship. Syracuse (28-2, 19-7 ATS) is perfect thus far as conference guests and would love to saunter down a similar path this season. The Orangemen are also 11-0 and 10-1 ATS away from Syracuse and freshman guard Brandon Triche has the answer why. "Less to do. On the road, you can't really go out. All you do is just sit there and think about the game." The ‘Cuse is 9-0 ATS having won four of five games this season.

It has been an escalator ride for Louisville (19-11, 9-16 ATS) this season; going down after loss at St. John’s by 19 and going right back up when they knocked off Syracuse in New York in next outing. This is not your typical Rick Pitino club, normally peaking at this time, instead when asked where his team was headed late in the season, his response was “next game”. This has been a team marked with inconsistency, making them an unsafe wager at home, where the Cardinals are 14-4, with rueful 4-9 ATS mark. This will be the last game at Freedom Hall, where Louisville has won over 80 percent of their games in this building since playing their starting in the 1957/58 season.

Not many matchups with Louisville, still a relative newcomer to Big East, yet Syracuse is 0-5 and 0-4-1 ATS the last three years.

Tennessee at Mississippi State (-3.5, 138.5) 6:00E ESPN

The Bulldogs shocking loss at Auburn means they still have work to do to be outright West Division champions of the SEC. Mississippi State (21-9, 13-11 ATS) did not show their usual defensive tenacity, allowing the Tigers score the most points against them all season (89) and surrender highest shooting percentage for a the year at 51.7. This is extremely important contest for the Bulldogs since they are not secure for NCAA bid. Despite having 22 victories, a perusal of those accomplishments has Old Dominion as best win. Mississippi State needs a W and be playing in the SEC championship to give them best chance for invite. The Bulldogs are 11-5 ATS off a SU loss and spread failure.

Tennessee’s fate for now is set, finishing third in the SEC East and playing LSU in first tournament game. Coach Bruce Pearl wants his Volunteers (22-7, 11-15 ATS) to look at the bigger picture. A win at Starksville and at least a couple victories next week in Nashville could have Tennessee climbing to possibly a third seed when the NCAA bids are announced. Scotty Hopson’s more aggressive offensive manner and Brian Williams energy, make the Vols a tougher team to knock off. Wagering wise not so much, having covered only three of last 12 SEC conflicts.

The underdog has been the correct side in seven of last 10 meetings.

North Carolina at Duke (-14.5, 146) 9:00E ESPN

Given the choice, ESPN would probably rather telecast great moments in North Carolina and Duke history, since this doesn’t set up to be one. The Tar Heels (16-14, 10-18 ATS) started the season with seven McDonald’s All-Americans and as the regular season closes, it appears Roy Williams picked up seven guys that ate at Micky D’s in his most frustrating season. North Carolina has shown a pulse lately winning and covering last two contests, yet UNC is 0-9 ATS facing teams outscoring foes by eight or more points after 15 or more contests.

It’s senior night for starters G Jon Scheyer, C Brian Zoubek and F Lance Thomas and what better way to go out than ACC regular season champs (or co-champs) with a win over their most hated rival. This is most versatile Duke (25-5, 17-11-1 ATS) team in a number of seasons as the year wore on, still needing Scheyer, Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler to score, but the contributions have been coming in from different areas on game by game basis. The Blue Devils are 16-0 and 10-5 ATS at Cameron Indoor Stadium this campaign, winning by super-sized 26.1 points per game.

This however is normally very competitive matchup, with the Dukies 7-5 with 2-10 ATS home record against Carolina Blue since 1997.

Sunday, Mar. 7

Florida at Kentucky ( ) 12:00E CBS

The Gators conclude the regular season with a matchup with their biggest rival Kentucky. Florida (20-10, 13-12 ATS) was doing its best to align itself to return to tournament for the first time in three years with step-up efforts from Chandler Parsons and Erving Walker. However, recent close losses at Georgia and at Vanderbilt have undermined their progress. Parsons has grown and displays an all-around game, getting others players involved in the offense, playing a point forward style. It will be a tough environment; nevertheless, the Gators are playing well and are 5-2 ATS as away underdogs this season.

This contest concludes what coach John Calipari hopes is a three part play. Kentucky (28-2, 16-12 ATS) is the best team in the SEC and has the best record. He would prefer his team win the conference tournament to keep momentum building, followed by six consecutive wins and a national championship. That of course is down the road and this game is about showing dominance, especially on home floor, since presumably DeMarcus Cousins, Patrick Patterson and John Wall will playing at Rupp Arena for the last time. The Wildcats are 7-0 ATS vs. poor three-point shooting teams converting 31 or less of their attempts since last year.

Kentucky has won nine of last dozen in Lexington over Florida with 6-5-1 ATS mark.

Michigan at Michigan State ( ) 4:00E CBS

The Spartans 67-65 win as 13-point home favorites over last place Penn State epitomizes their season. Michigan State (23-7, 11-18 ATS) is playing to be co-champion of the Big Ten, but it hardly feels like it. The Spartans 9-0 conference start and one-point road wins at Minnesota and Michigan only camouflaged their weaknesses that emerged later in February. Kalin Lucas was carrying this club, with super sub Draymond Green being the only other consistent scoring threat. Lately, even Lucas has been affected, with eight turnovers and one assist in last Sunday’s win over Purdue and he made two miscues against the Nittany Lions that almost cost his club the game. Coach Tom Izzo’s maddening squad is 13-2 and uninspiring 4-11 ATS as a home favorite.

Michigan (14-15, 13-12 ATS) started the year in the Top 25 and has fallen faster than American Idol winner Taylor Hicks from the limelight. If one supports and watched the Maize and Blue this season, you would be having Tommy Amaker flashbacks with how this team has performed. Coach John Beilein has been trying to force feed 6’10 center Zack Gibson into the starting lineup, as 6’8 DeShawn Sims is the only other regular start over 6-foot-5. Gibson becomes important against the larger and more physical Spartans since the Wolverines have been outrebounded eight straight games. Michigan is 2-5 and 6-1 ATS as away underdog.

Dating back to 1998, Michigan State has won all 10 games over in-state rival Michigan in East Lansing, with 5-5 ATS record.

College Hoops Weekend Preview

For many of the smaller conferences, the regular season concludes this weekend, while the larger leagues are still fighting to determine who the regular season champions will be. This Saturday and Sunday, a large number of these confrontations are on tap in several conferences and college basketball bettors are going to have to bring their A-game to determine winners and spread beaters. Enjoy the fray. Lines from Bookmaker.com.

Saturday, Feb. 27

Northeastern at George Mason (+3, 125)12:00E ESPN2

One of the most underrated leagues in college basketball is the Colonial Athletic Conference. Each season is highly competitive and the top teams have invariably pulled a few upsets over BCS-type conferences and the quality of play usually leads to good showings in the NCAA Tourney or the minor post-season events. On the final weekend of the regular season, Northeastern (18-11, 15-12-1 ATS) can still tie for conference crown with Old Dominion with a win and Monarchs loss, thanks to league leading defense that has permitted more than 64 points in CAA action just once. The Huskies are 7-5 and 8-3 ATS on the road this season.

George Mason (17-12, 10-15-1 ATS) sky-rocketed to the top off conference standings with 10-1 record, but a closer look revealed a 5-5-1 ATS mark, providing info the Patriots were not quite as potent as they appeared. February has been cruel to George Mason (2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS), as the freshmen stocked team has hit the wall. Don’t be shocked if senior guard Cam Long has a big day in his last home game at the Patriot Center. Watch for oddsmakers number since Patriots are 3-0 ATS as home underdogs.

George Mason has won and covered previous four confrontations in Fairfax, VA and the home team is 8-1-1 ATS in these CAA contests.

Kentucky at Tennessee (+2.5, 140.5) 12:00E CBS (split)

Nothing stirs the orange-clad Tennessee fans to see red, like the blue in Kentucky basketball uniform. The Hatfield’s and McCoy’s feud had nothing on these two universities, where genuine hatred exists between the neighboring states. Coach Bruce Pearl has coached up his team since the trials and tribulations of the new year occurred, however recently, the loss of Tyler Smith, injuries and slumps have seen them struggle. “You can’t feel sorry for ourselves,” senior guard J.P. Prince said. Pearl almost assuredly will be in the orange sports jacket and the Vols (20-7, 10-14 ATS) are 20-5 ATS as a home underdog or pick.

Though Kentucky (27-1, 15-11 ATS) plays its four freshmen extensively, John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins are arguably as talented as anyone playing their respective positions. The earlier South Carolina road loss may have been a blessing, since forward Patrick Patterson listened to the criticism and has raised his play to the level of his ability and his team has gone on to win eight straight (6-2 ATS). He was the difference-maker in recent overtime wins at Mississippi State and at Vanderbilt. The Wildcats are 6-1 and 5-2 ATS on the road this season and 7-2 ATS dating back to last season if the opponent has a winning home record.

Kentucky has taken seven of the last dozen in Knoxville, and the SU winner is 11-2 ATS wherever they have played in previous 13 outings.

Arizona State at California (-6, 140.5) 3:00E FSN

These are likely to be the only two Pac-10 schools invited to the Big Dance and if either falters in their conference tournament early, even that becomes a question mark. This is Arizona State’s third consecutive and final road game of the year and they hope next weekend’s home finales will be meaningful for the Pac-10 title. The first order of business is knocking off Cal and the Sun Devils (20-8, 11-13 ATS) don’t believe in trickery to upset opposing teams. Arizona State isn’t going to “wow” anyone with personnel, instead they play defense and take care of the ball, which is why they are 8-1 ATS in road games when they commit 10 to 13 turnovers.

California (19-9, 15-12 ATS) was the preseason choice to win the Pac-10 and they have positioned themselves to do just that 11-5 record. Senior point guard Jerome Randle, with a strong finish might be conference Player of the Year and fellow senior Jamal Boykin has been playing his best basketball of the season. The Bears are a much better club when sophomore guard Jorge Gutierrez (out six games in January) is on the floor, because he adds ferocity and energy. Cal is 15-3 ATS at home facing a team with a winning record.

Both teams have five conferences defeats and California has a game in hand, having only Stanford remaining on the schedule. The Bears won in Tempe 78-70 as four-point underdogs previously and are 14-1 and 10-4 ATS at home, mauling opponents by 19.3 points per contest. Cal is 7-5 at the Haas Pavilion against ASU since ’97, however have only covered the spread three times.

Kansas at Oklahoma State (+5.5, 144) 4:00E CBS

The Jayhawks (27-1, 10-14-1 ATS) have been learning valuable lessons as the season has progressed. Being No. 1 most of the year has forced the Kansas players to expect everyone to be gunning for them. In games at Kansas State, at Colorado, at Texas A&M and even at home vs. Baylor, the Jayhawks had to fight to win, were a less mentally strong team would have lost. Coach Bill Self has his squad back playing for each other and nobody wants to let anyone down. The next adventure is in Stillwater and Kansas is 17-4 ATS against teams with 60%-80% win percentage.

The Cowboys (19-8, 12-8-1 ATS) internal mettle is being tested, facing their third consecutive ranked team in the Jayhawks, after beating Baylor and tumbling to Texas. Any chance for an upset lies in the hands of James Anderson. The junior guard can go from mild to habanero hot in two shots and teammates Keiton Page, Obi Muonelo and Matt Pilgrim end up benefiting as opponents become focused on cooling down Anderson. Oklahoma State has the worst assist-to-turnover ratio in the Big 12, which won’t cut it against Kansas. Okie State is 15-5 ATS on own floor vs. teams outscoring opponents by four or more points a contest.

The Cowboys have split six tilts at home vs. Kansas with four covers and the UNDER is 5-0.

New Mexico at BYU (-8,152.5) 4:00E VERSUS

The Mountain West crown could be on the line in Provo, with New Mexico (26-3, 17-10-1 ATS) looking for the sweep of BYU. The Lobos have been dealing and have ample confidence, which is supported by 9-2 and 5-5-1 ATS road record. We're just real confident," senior forward Roman Martinez said. "We always respect our opponent, but I think we're playing confident now and more calm than we used to be." This will help New Mexico who is 12-3 and 10-4 ATS when playing with three or more days off.

This MWC matchup is doubly important for BYU (26-3, 16-10 ATS), since they try to even season series and still have road games remaining. Senior Jonathan Tavernari has had a relatively disappointing final season, nevertheless has started to find the range in last few weeks, proving why he is the school’s 12th all-time leading scorer. Tavernari has maintained a positive outlook as being just the Cougars fourth leading scorer this season. “The reason this team is so good is we have so many options," Tavernari said. BYU is on 12-1 ATS mission in February contests.

With both clubs having two losses in the conference, the straight up winner is perfect 13-0 ATS since 2003.

Villanova at Syracuse (-5.5,157) 9:00E ESPN

While this won’t necessarily determine the champion of the Big East, it will go a long way towards deciding it. This is the most anticipated regular season game of the year in the conference and Scottie Reynolds will lead a veteran Villanova (23-4, 17-9 ATS) squad into the Carrier Dome, long on big game experience. Both teams have talented deep backcourts, which could offset one another, meaning what goes on in the painted area might determine your winner. Forward Antonio Pena, will need the likes of Taylor King, Maurice Sutton, Isaiah Armwood and possibly even Mouphtaou Yarou, all to be a factor for a club that 11-3 and 9-5 ATS away from home.

Coach Jay Wright will play funky defenses designed to confuse, which he can with his guard contingent that are amoeba-like in adaptability, which is why Syracuse (26-2, 17-7 ATS) has to establish dominance in the lane. Finding ways to feed the post to Rick Jackson and Arinze Onuaku opens up wing players like Wes Johnson and sub Kris Joseph, to score in various ways and clears shooting lines for Andy Rautins and others. The Orangemen are 9-2 ATS versus good defensive teams permitting 42 or less field goal accuracy.

Coaching adjustments will also be important and so will rebounding. The team with most boards is 13-1 SU and ATS.

Sunday, Feb. 28

Richmond at Xavier (-7, 136.6) 1:00E ESPN2

It wasn’t supposed to be this way in the Atlantic 10, with three teams tied for first place this late in the campaign, especially if the roll call was Richmond, Xavier and Temple. The Spiders (22-6, 15-9 ATS) have given opposing teams arachnophobia, with its crawling defense that permits just 60.1 points per game. Richmond plays mostly upperclassmen, many of whom were on 8-22 squad from three years ago. The Spiders defense really started to get under opponents skin when coach Chris Mooney inserted center Darrius Garrett into starting lineup, being a shot blocking specialist. Who makes Richmond go is 5’11 Kevin Anderson, whose elevated the program to first Top 25 ranking in 24 years. The Spiders are 6-2 ATS this season as creepy underdogs.

Xavier (20-7, 17-9 ATS) was thought to have lost too much talent from last season and not defend their A-10 crown. Taking a wider perspective, new coach Chris Mack took over a program widely successful and placed his personal stamp on in, having senior Jason Love follow his lead. What Musketeers insiders have marveled at is Mack sets expectations for each player on the team and demands they meet them every day. He doesn’t holler and scream all the time, but uses several techniques to keep them focused on pushing themselves. Indiana transfer Jordan Crawford has helped this team exceed others expectations, not Xavier’s. The Musketeers are 13-0 and 10-2 ATS at the Cintas Center, destroying foes by 23.4 points per game.

Xavier is 7-2 and 6-3 ATS in previous nine matchups.

Michigan State at Purdue (-4, 135) 4:00E CBS

The way the Big Ten schedule has played out, every couple of days, a national game of importance is on tap and another is coming on Sunday. Despite a collection of top returning players, it has been anything but easy for Michigan State (21-7, 10-17 ATS). After losing three straight to start February, the Spartans had been showing signs of improving daily (until Ohio State), with guard Kalin Lucas back in control from sprained ankle. Others like Durrell Summers are finally playing smarter and Tom Izzo’s crew is 22-10 ATS revenging a same season loss.

A win against Michigan State might well place Purdue (24-3, 13-14 ATS) on the top row to draw a top seed when the tournament bids come out in couple of weeks, however that belief is now clouded with the season ending injury to Robbie Hummel. Like coach Izzo, Matt Painter deserves a boiler room full of credit, riding out tumultuous times in the early part of Big Ten schedule. The Boilermakers stayed the course, fought thru the challenging moments and emerged a mentally tougher club, with road wins at Champaign, East Lansing and Columbus. In Purdue’s latest winning streak, center JaJuan Johnson has been a beast and E'Twaun Moore is their leading scorer. However, Hummel was second leading scorer and rebounder on a team not blessed with size. Purdue will have to adjust swiftly and they are 16-5 ATS vs. teams averaging 16 assists a game.

Purdue is 5-1 SU and ATS when Spartans come to Mackey Arena.

Clemson at Florida State (-4, 133.5) 5:30E FSN

The bracketolgists (is there a more worthless job) of college hoops have seven ACC teams making the field of 65 right now. If this information is to be believed, these two teams are fighting to move up toward better seeds, making this a mega-matchup in the ACC. Clemson (19-8, 12-12 ATS) is like Mark McGwire on roids at home (13-2, 9-3 ATS) and about as intimidating as David Spade on the road (4-5 SU and 0-4 ATS as road pooch). The Tigers are in the midst of playing last three of five conference conflicts away from home and are 0-9 ATS in road tilts taking on teams with a winning record.

Most so-called experts believe Florida State (20-7, 8-14 ATS) has to hold serve in last two home games to punch their ticket for NCAA berth. The Seminoles have been a potent squad at the Donald L. Tucker Center at 12-2, but a woeful wager at 2-8 ATS. Florida State has been at or near the top of the defensive field goal percentage numbers all season in the ACC and has the ability to stifle Clemson, who malfunctions when it comes to half court offense. Center Solomon Alabi has been the team’s leading scorer (12.0) and he’ll have a chance to improve the Noles fortunes.

Clemson is only 3-9 and 6-6 ATS in Tallahassee.

Two Big East teams in need of W

After 25 games, the only question remaining for Syracuse was would they be the top seed in the East Region when the NCAA bids come out in just over three weeks? Despite suffering just their second loss of the year this past Sunday, now they might not even be in first place in their conference this upcoming weekend with another defeat. And what about Georgetown, whose as reliable as Toyota these days. College basketball in February, the bettors dream and nightmare all rolled into one.

Maybe the Orangemen (24-2, 15-7 ATS) were due for a flat outing like they suffered at home to Louisville, losing 66-60 as seven-point favorites. Save about seven total minutes, Syracuse players looked like zombies, going through the motions.

They have played similar to this of late with 3-4 ATS mark, winning games in the last five minutes, until they finally got burned. The Orangemen can still play, inside or out and their 2-3 zone is the most active coach Jim Boeheim has had in years. With the tenacity of the Big East, fouls are inevitable and Syracuse has a bench, with Scoop Jardine, Kris Joseph and Mookie Jones in particular making immediate contributions for a team already loaded. The ‘Cuse is 13-5 ATS playing against a team with a winning record this season.

A closer look reveals Wesley Johnson doesn’t appear to be completely healthy from a couple of spills this month (10-35 shooting) and his game has lacked the explosiveness seen earlier. With opponents taking a wait and see attitude with Johnson, they’ve been shadowing Andy Rautins more and his shooting has been off and Syracuse guards have been less inclined to dump the ball down to the big guys in the paint. Add it up and team averaging 80.8 points per game, has scored 72 or less in four of last five.

Coach John Thompson III has tried to develop a bench, with no success. Yes, sophomore guard Jesse Clark continues to improve and Georgetown (18-6, 11-9 ATS) might well become a very treacherous club to play in March with Austin Freeman, Greg Monroe, Chris Wright the principle scorers. Clark would make the Hoyas almost impossible to guard, likely giving them at least three bonafide scorers each contest with a fourth possible almost any time.

The conundrum arises when two of guys are off their game, who does Thompson turn to. Of course he’s going to say his players know they have to play heavy minutes and it’s not a big deal. What are his options? Admit he could be a little less stern and have fewer players transfer or fess up his recruiting efforts haven’t been as good as other top level programs, he lives in Washington D.C. for goodness sake, why be completely honest when hardly anyone else in town is. Georgetown is 9-24 ATS at home after playing consecutive games as favorite.

Though the Hoyas haven’t won three in a row since Jan. 3, they haven’t lost two in a row either and are 5-0 and 4-1 ATS off a loss, returning home after being upset by Rutgers 71-68 as 10.5-point favorites. In fact, G-Town is sensational 8-0 SU after failing to cover with 6-1 ATS record.

Bookmaker.com has the Hoyas as two-point favorites for this Big East battle and Georgetown is 9-22 ATS in last 31 conference clashes and Syracuse 9-0 and 8-1 ATS away from the Carrier Dome this season.

These are two universities that helped make the Big East Conference nationally known in basketball and they have played oodles of memorable contests. The Jan. 25 meeting was noteworthy for its unusualness. The Hoyas opened up a 14-0 lead and slattern away the good fortune, being outscored 73-41 from that point forward.

This is part of ESPN2 Thursday Showcase, with the SU winner 14-2 ATS since 2000 in the regular season.

Does hot shooting matter (for wagering) in college hoops?

In the late 1990’s, a person I had known for a number years had told me about a method of betting college and professional basketball that he used as part of his way of picking games. His reasoning was sound; though I’d never taken the time to go on a fact finding mission to see if what he was saying was true.

Over the years I never forgot he told me and would use his methodology as one last piece of the wagering puzzle in looking at a given contest. Three years ago I delved into the NBA numbers and found his idea to be somewhat accurate, with one area more profitable than the other. With a bit more time to look into different elements with football fading away in the rearview mirror, decided to check his beliefs in college hoops.

My gambling friend said this – Bet on college basketball teams that shoot 55 to 59.9 percent in last game and wager against those that connect on 60 percent or better of shot attempts in the same circumstance.

His logic was this, if a team shot the ball extremely well, in the 55 to almost 60 percent range, this would have a positive carryover affect into the next encounter, regardless of the opponent. The team would be playing with extreme confidence and though they might not win, they ended up playing well enough to cover the spread.

Concerning teams shooting 60 percent or higher, that is almost a freakish occurrence, as teams made a large number of shots close the bucket or they just shot “lights out”. Since this was such an unusual event, invariably the basketball gods would punish this team and they would shoot below their average in the next contest and lose against the spread. Again, sound logic.
For every college basketball team that shoots 55 to 59.5 percent, just over a third of the time (37.3 percent) will any team shoot 60 percent or higher. I went thru 18 different conferences to see what kind of results I could find for this season. If a team made enough shots in either category but did not face an opponent that would yield a pointspread, I discounted that game. Otherwise, everything else mattered.

Starting with the 55-59.9 percent range, the results were hugely disappointing. Through yesterday, teams that converted this many shots were 138-83 SU, with 107-110-5 ATS record. Not only were these teams not a good bet, they weren’t even .500.

Have to admit to being shocked, since over the years as I stated earlier, I had used this as part of handicapping arsenal and believed it was somewhat beneficial. Not having the time to check back over several years does leave open questions, however thinking about it, because the diversity of college opponents is far more varied for any team compared to the NBA, I could at least reason why this was the end result.

A number of the results did reveal or at least cause a moment of betting reflection. The Big East is the biggest conference, thus they have the most number of games that fit the criteria and the winners were 18-6 and 12-10-2 ATS. The A-10 has 14 teams despite its name and they were third with 16 qualifiers at 9-7 and 7-9 ATS, which is a rather low win percentage considering the number of baskets per attempts. The Big 12 was second in volume of games at 14-4, with unimpressive 7-11 ATS mark.

Teams from the Big Ten were 12-4 and 10-6 ATS; with Horizon League squads having same exact spread record with 7-9 SU mark.

A few other aspects stood out and are noteworthy. The Colonial Athletic Conference and MAC are well-respected mid-majors so to speak, with 12 teams in each league, yet they have had only six and eight games that made this study. It is to be presumed these conferences don’t have the same talent level as so-called BCS conferences, yet once you get beyond non-conference play, they are matched up against similar competition. Just an observation.

St. Mary’s and Syracuse are 5-0 ATS and 7-0 ATS respectively after shooting 55 to 59.9 percent this season.

The next area was also a surprise on a couple of levels and though better for gamblers, not overwhelming.

It starts with teams shooting 60 percent or higher are 54-34 SU in next game, which is 61.3 percent. The lower winning percentage made sense given how they played the previous outing, yet the spread results were nothing better than fair (in my opinion) at 40-48 ATS, 45.4 percent.

Once again perception vs. reality is frequently different and while this is just one not completed college basketball season, these are the facts as I could find. Its fun to note the Pac-10 is having a down year and teams off a hot shooting night of 60 percent or better are 3-3 with 1-5 ATS record, more in line with my thinking.

We’ve all witnessed Georgetown’s ups and downs and they are 0-3 SU and ATS after bursting to 60 percent bubble this year.

The final conclusion is it’s not a bad idea to bet against teams after they shoot the ball extremely well and this could be particularly true if they are facing a solid defensive club. Otherwise, burning the nets doesn’t carry much weight in betting on next contest.

One final sad, yet mildly humorous note. I had not spoken to this individual in a few years since we both moved away from where we used to live and I called him to tell him about this article and research and before I could even give him all the results he blurted out “I haven’t used that in years for college buckets, doesn’t work to well these days”. Now I find out.

Another example of always trying to understand the ever changing world of sports betting.