When did people think the NBA became Fixed?

The NBA Finals are just days away and this nagging feeling has been bothering me for some time. For years, even decades, there has been a public perception that professional basketball is run by a higher power than the players and coaches. It has become assumed in the thoughts of the general public and by the masses that either wager on or follow the NBA that enough (not every) games are predetermined similar to professional wrestling.

I’ve personally heard this for years and have become increasingly fascinated, especially come playoff time, when the discussion and contemplation reach a fever pitch.

For me, it’s the “why factor” and wondered why elements changed from things like aliens in Roswell, NM and the U.S. Government setting up 9/11 in New York City, to the “accepted” point of view by so many that follow or bet on the NBA that it is in some way fixed.

While perusing numerous forums to see what people are thinking as I usually do, I was struck this year more than ever about comments that people shared about the NBA playoffs.

Among the various quotes found were these

“The Lakers will be in the Finals because that what (David) Stern wants.”

“The Suns and Magic have no shot (in conference finals), they (the NBA one would surmise) want the Celtics and Lakers for TV ratings.”

“Kobe (Bryant) will get every call and the Lakers will win the NBA Finals again, the series will have to go 7 to get max dollars for the league.”

While these statements in and of themselves are harmless, the follow up comments by almost everyone were in agreement.

For those under the age of 30, the single greatest impact for this belief was referee Tim Donaghy being caught and prosecuted for admitting betting on games. For the suspicious mind, this created validation of belief, that yes; it was very possible to fix a NBA game. While Donaghy stuck to his story of not fixing games, public perception was altered in their minds the fix was in.

Trying to understand where this idea was formulated in the first place, possibly it starts with the history of championship teams.

The NBA more than any other sports league, has the best teams being crowned champions. It remains the last bastion in sports where a team doesn’t just get hot and win the whole thing. How else could one explain how other the Houston Rockets of 1995-96, they are the only team other than a top three seed to win a NBA title since the current 16-team format was changed in 1984. The Rockets (sixth seed) were the defending NBA champs at the time and suffered an injury-riddled regular season before getting healthy late and became back-to-back champions.

In one way it’s easy for people to be jaded. Boston won 11 titles in 13 years in the late1950’s and 60’s and 17 overall. The Los Angeles Lakers lost to the Celtics in the finals six times in the 1960’s and have 15 titles if you count the Minneapolis Lakers who won five of the first eight when the NBA was formulated.

The Chicago Bulls won six in eight years with Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen and more recently, Tim Duncan and the San Antonio Spurs captured four rings in nine years. Add them up and that is 42 titles among four teams in the league’s 63 years of existence, 66.6 percent and the number is guaranteed to go higher with this year’s finalists.

A good friend who I can talk candidly about these types of topics who works on the Vegas Strip doesn’t believe games are fixed, because of fixed limits on NBA contests and the lack of unusual movement, plus the sportsbooks themselves have a stake because if it were true this was happening, nobody would ever bet on professional basketball again.

I questioned a professional gambler in Nevada I’ve known for some time.

His name is Sal, who bets daily. “It is at times understandable why amateur bettors would believe the NBA has games that appear fixed, it just isn’t factual. If the league was so desperate for money and ratings, why wouldn’t every series go six or seven games, every year?

“In order for games to be fixed, you need a common denominator. Somebody that has money and wants to make more and someone else who needs money and once they taste it, wants more.”

“No NBA player is in need of cash other than maybe a 12th man on any team and they have no influence on the outcome. Would they be a source of information about team problems with the coach or girl friend problems, sure, but do you chase around making max bets at all different outlets on this information without a track record. Not me.”

Sal added, “Referees are the easiest targets because they believe they are underpaid, but their true influence has to do more with totals, since they can either blow or swallow the whistle.”
Nevertheless, public perception is still prevalent.

I put the question of fixed games in the NBA to the StatFox Forum and by the time I had to write this article, every person responded with a “yes”.

The responses were numerous, but all in agreement.

“All are fixed, easy money”.

“….billions being bet .......now when that many can control the masses who wager...why wouldn't they fix the games when the money is tilt by a 80/20 margin it is simple economics”

“Of course it’s fixed. One ref gets arrested and says I’m not the only one, and no one wants to investigate who else?

“Yes I do believe all sports are fixed. The reason is quite simple to me and that is the fact that with the amount of cash being wagered on games, there is no way they will leave the outcome to pure chance or luck.”

“Yes-because anytime money is involved it corrupts”

“Did the caveman invent fire? Is Ed "Too Tall" Jones to tall?

It certainly is intriguing subject and while there is no way to prove it one way or another, the public has spoken and they see it only one way.

Of course your comments welcome.

Better bring shades for Suns and Lakers in Game 2

One of the wonderful aspects of visiting Tinsel Town is you never know when the stars will be out. You could be standing in line at legendary Pink’s Hot Dogs or roast beef haven Phillipes and Sandra Bullock or Tom Hanks might be waiting in line with you. The same can also be true on the hardwood, where every now and again the Los Angeles Lakers and their stars give a memorable performance at the Staples Center.

There is always a bit of the unknown when a NBA team has a long layoff, you can never be sure what it means good or bad. The Orlando Magic appeared to be effected negatively with their extra time off against Boston, but the Lakers played refreshed and looked better than a Santa Monica sunset.

Kobe Bryant was in “the zone” scoring 40 points on 23 shot attempts. Bryant appeared more than any other L.A. player to have benefitted from the down time. "My legs benefited a lot," Bryant said. "I was able to take some time off and just get stronger, get my legs stronger, body stronger."

However, Bryant wasn’t the only Lakers player that played rejuvenated and Phil Jackson’s squad proved just how challenging they are to defeat when they all committed to common goal.

Lamar Odom had 19 points and 19 boards (seven on offense) and was dialed in throughout.
Paul Gasol was 10 for 13 shooting, even converting on a couple of almost impossible buckets for a man his size. Derek Fisher was defensively possessed in staying with Steve Nash and though he has 13 assists, Fisher and his teammates limited the former MVP to 13 points on only 10 shots.

Two keys for Phoenix coming into the series were rebounding and bench strength. The Suns were outrebounded by eight and their reserves were out-pointed 44-35 in losing by 21.

"They played great, one of the best games I've seen them play in the playoffs this season," Suns coach Alvin Gentry said. "Kobe kind of controlled the whole game. I thought we could have withstood the game that he had ... but when he's making his jumper like that, there's not a whole lot you can do about it."

Phoenix is going to have to play much better defense as L.A. was fearless doing what they wanted offensively. (Shannon Brown’s dunk attempt for example) The Suns are 31-13 ATS after allowing 105 points or more this season and if Kobe stays percolating, they must negate the rest of his teammates since you aren’t going to be on the winning side permitting 58 percent shooting.

“They're probably going to continue to be taller than us as the series goes on, so we've got to ... make everything as tough as possible," Steve Nash wryly stated. "We played hard, but we didn't make enough shots, and we had a few too many breakdowns."

Subtract Grant Hill and the other four Phoenix starters shot 59.5 percent, the issue was they generated only 42 attempts. If the Suns expect to tie series and move spread record to 20-10 after one or more losses, the starters have to get more shots at the rim and Channing Frye and Jared Dudley can’t put up combined 2 for 13 numbers.

Phoenix is a seven-point underdogs, with total leaping to 216. For those that use online sports betting it’s impossible to ignore the Lakers are 11-1 ATS after three or more consecutive Over’s and 17-6 against the spread in home games when playing only their second game in week. Coach Jackson’s club is 13-4 UNDER after a wipeout win by 20 points or more.

TNT will again have the coverage of Game 2 from LaLa-Land at 9:00 Eastern with the desert dogs 14-4 UNDER after they allowed a shooting percentage of 55 percent or higher.

The King could be overthrown in Boston tonight

LeBron James is supposed to be the best player in the NBA and probably is, but he hasn’t been close to being the best player in this series. King James showed a side of personality not seen often after he gave a lame effort like his teammates in Game 5 debacle.

After losing 120-88 as seven-point home favorites, James had this to say about his 15-point showing.

"I spoil a lot of people with my play," James said. "When you have a bad game here or there, you've had three bad games in a seven-year career, then it's easy to point that out. So you got to be better.

I put a lot of pressure on myself to be out there and be the best player on the court, and when I'm not I feel bad for myself because I'm not going out there and doing the things I can do. But I don't hang my head low or make any excuses about anything that may be going on, because that's not the type of player or person I am."

It’s a bit presumptuous for James to say he’s had three lousy games in his career, but what basketball fans and those rooting for the Cavaliers want to know, where is the burning desire?
Is the elbow a much bigger issue? Does he find the lack proficiency from his teammates appalling? Does he not trust his coach in being knowledgeable to lead this club? Has he mentally checked out thinking about playing somewhere else?

Cleveland is 24-7-1 ATS off a defeat by 10 or more points, but this was one for the record books. No NBA with a regular season win percentage of .700 or higher had ever lost a home playoff game by 30 or more points. (Thanks Elias Sports)

What can the Cavaliers do to send this to Game 7? Having Mike Brown coach his players might help.

For starters if Antwan Jamison is going to not provide points on offense, get him off the floor, he’s a defensive liability. J.J. Hickson was valuable in the latter part of the season; use his intensity and defense to at least do something on one end of the floor.

Brown has to find an answer for Shaq and Zydrunas Ilgauskas to rotate better on weakside passes by Boston, who is feasting in the paint with layups or short jump shots.
Mo Williams either decides to play or should sit. He has yet to guard Rajon Rondo and his offensive production is nil.

Lastly, LeBron has to determine what he wants. His elbow is unquestionably bothering him and he doesn’t trust his own jump shot, passing up at least seven wide open looks he had Tuesday night. But where is the explosiveness to the rim?

Yes, Boston has had a few nice wrinkles to limit James, but does the game’s best player settle for idle dribbles and pass to teammate or use his brute force like in the past and blow to the cup and score or find Cavs teammate standing by himself with wide open look at the bucket with collapsing defense? Interesting to note Cleveland is 2-9 ATS in last 11 outings against teams with winning record.

Boston has outplayed and outhustled its younger opponent and is 7-3 ATS in the postseason. The Celtics don’t want to take any chances.

"We cannot come back here," Kevin Garnett said. "We have to think this is our Game 7 coming up and we cannot afford to have the best team in the league have a Game 7 on their floor. Just not possible."

Oddsmakers have Boston as 1.5-point favorites with total of 196.5, as they go for their second three game winning streak in the playoffs. The C’s are 2-10 ATS off a road win by 10 points or more this season and 17-4 UNDER after a huge blowout victory by 30 or more. Cleveland has its back against the proverbial wall and is 2-5 ATS in last seven as road underdogs and is 16-5 OVER revenging a home massacre loss of 20 points or more.

The biggest deciding factor is LeBron’s mental state. This contest is being played with one day between games and James is shooting 36.1 percent on his meager total of 47 shot attempts, including 0-13 beyond the arc in this East semi-final with less than 48 hours between contests. In the two games Cleveland has won and covered, James is shooting 56.5 percent on 46 shots with two or more days in between outings. The Cavs are 0-6 ATS with one day of rest since April 11.

Game 6 is on ESPN at 8:00 Eastern and if Cleveland can force one more game, they will have two days off between conflicts.

NBA ROUND TWO BETTING EDGES

With the top seeds having flexed their muscle in the opening round of the NBA playoffs, it’s one to Round Two where a series upset or two is always in the realm of possibility.

Here are four solid moneymaking angles from my powerful database that have withstood the test of time throughout 2nd round playoff action. All results are ATS and since 1991, unless noted otherwise. Enjoy.

Three down, but not out
Teams that take it on the chin three times in a row do not go down easily in Round Two.

Unlike most other rounds, teams playing off three consecutive losses that are not favored (pick or dog) prove to be resilient this round, going 8-6 SU and 10-4 ATS.

Better yet, if they showed some spark of like in the last game – scoring 82 or more points – these teams tend to take a punch almost as well as Jake LaMotta, going 7-3 SU and 9-1 ATS in this role.

Thou shall not lay points to a No. 1 seed
One golden rule in this round applies to top seeds, namely: never lay points against No.1 seeds.

That’s because inferior teams are just 15-25-1 ATS when playing points into No. 1 seeds since 1996. Worse, if the No. 1 seed is off a SU and ATS loss, lower seeded favorites are just 3-10 ATS.
And if the lower seeded favorite beat the top seed and covered the spread by nine or more points, they dip to 1-10 ATS.

Role reversals
You may not be comfortable changing roles in a relationship, but NBA teams in this round of the playoffs do.

That’s confirmed by the fact that Round Two dogs off a straight-up loss as a favorite are 29-20 ATS.

When changing roles off back-to-back SU and ATS losses, these puppies bark to the tune of 11-4 ATS, including 10-1 ATS if they own a win percentage of les than .680 on the season.

Running on empty
Teams that scored well below their average (77 or less points) in their previous game tend to fuel up the next game in this round.

That’s evident by a sparkling 20-10-1 ATS mark by Round Two favorites that tallied 77 or fewer points in their last game.

Put these favorites up against .625 or greater opposition and they top off at 15-3 ATS, including 14-1 when laying four or more points.

There you have it. Four reliable betting theories you can hang your hat on throughout the 2nd round of this year’s NBA playoffs. Use your head and play accordingly.

By Marc Lawrence of Playbook.com

NBA Big 3’s not what used to be

The world moves along at warp speed and today’s My Space is quickly replaced by Facebook in what seems like no time at all. The same is true in the NBA; bring up the term –Big Three- and who doesn’t think of NBA championships with San Antonio and Boston. But like boxer Shane Mosley found out recently, father times waits for no one and you can be discarded rather quickly when the latest thing comes around the corner. Watch for this in the NBA playoff tilts tonight.

Cleveland at Boston 7:00E ESPN

It was just two years ago; General Manager Danny Ainge formed his version of VH1’s “super group”, bringing together Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen to play with Paul Pierce. This was immediate success as the trio matched skills perfectly and did ESPN commercials on the way to NBA championship.

But that was then. Now KG cannot play a full season as his once youthful legs are betraying him. Allen can still run an opponent crazy going thru a maze of screens, but the quick-triggered jumper is not as reliable as the old days. Pierce was main force in the championship season and he was “the man” whenever Boston needed a clutch basket. Today he is more of a role player, an additional scorer, not someone who can be counted on regularly.

Its new era in Bean-Town and Rajon Rondo is the new leader. The Celtics now go where Rondo takes them.

After a disappointing regular season that left Boston as the fourth seed, The Three Amigos are trying to keep up with the speedy Rondo and are 5-2 SU and ATS in the postseason. The Celtics have been playing tremendous basketball, really only having the equivalent of four less than desirable quarters of hoops among its seven games that accounted for both losses.

Rondo is not about numbers, he’s about results. His outside shooting is below average, he still goes “Road Runner” fast and commits more turnovers than necessary, but he’s smarter player today.

Rondo finds the open man sooner, he will make a steal and be gone two steps before his opponent even reacts and runs down a rebound like he knew the angle of the miss just as the shooter released the ball.

After earning split in Cleveland, Rondo and his teammates truly believe they are better than the Cavaliers and he will to abuse more Cavs defenders.

Sportsbooks have Boston as single point home underdogs and the Celtics are 8-2-1 ATS when catching 4.5-point or fewer points at TD Garden and will try to keep lethargic Cleveland squad playing the same way.

When Cleveland fans here about elbow problems, baseball is what usually comes to mind. It’s quite evident LeBron James is laboring with this issue, but this doesn’t mean the rest of the team can’t make shoot and play defense. The Cavs have been outplayed for 6 ½ quarters in this series and everyone will find out a lot in Game 3 about a team that is 7-3 ATS off a double digit home loss.

Phoenix at San Antonio 9:30E ESPN

The Spurs have to win four of their next five games to advance to West Finals and even having its three stars might not be enough to make that occur.

Basketball is five on five with every player having a job to do. Though Tony Parker is coming off the bench, he’s playing starter minutes. (36:05 in Game 2) And even if you take bench scoring in the literal sense, San Antonio was outscored 31-24 by players that came off the Phoenix chairs, which was essentially the difference in 110-102 final.

Parker, Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili have been carrying this franchise for years, unfortunately they can’t do it alone and need more help. This helps explain 11-25 ATS record revenging a road loss over the last two seasons. Richard Jefferson was moreeffective in last contest, but Antonio McDyess and Matt Bonner were non-factors.

Phoenix on the other hand showed the depth of the Chinese Red Army. The Suns starters were a step slow, out of rhythm and playing mediocre basketball as they trailed 30-21 after the first quarter.

Coach Alvin Gentry had just pleaded with his team to give more effort and in came Jared Dudley, Channing Frye and Louis Amundson and instead of folding like a burrito on Cinco de Mayo, Phoenix exploded with increased energy, scoring, rebounding and playing tighter defense. The starters watched as their teammates led the surge on San Antonio and by halftime the game was knotted up at 51.

Dudley in particular was the star of stars. "He was my player of the game -- he made some huge plays for us," Steve Nash said. "He did a bunch of things that more than anything gave us energy and confidence and changed the game and enabled us to come back and tie at halftime just because of his energy and spirit."

San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich seconded that notion: "Jared Dudley changed the whole game. He came in and was a monster. He was committed to the boards, and it was infectious."

The Spurs need this type of player to help the power trio against Suns team that is shining bright with 20-4 and 17-6-1 ATS record since Mar.14. San Antonio is six-point favorite with total of 205.5 and is 8-3 ATS off a straight up and spread loss. This is a conflict they need to take control of throughout and are 10-3-1 UNDER at home vs. teams with a winning road record.

Phoenix has covered eight of last 11 contests as road underdogs and is 17-6 OVER away from Arizona after consecutive games as a home favorite.

Orlando vs Atlanta Series Outlook

The Magic and Hawks took opposite paths to this series matchup, Orlando using only four games, while Atlanta was pushed to full seven. However, this is what the Hawks wanted, they are out to prove they are an elite club deserving of being in the final four of NBA tournament, while this is another stop on the way for the team from central Florida, wanting to repeat as conference champions. What is set to occur, read on.

(2) Orlando vs (3) Atlanta

If the Orlando Magic is a little tight to start Eastern Conference semi-final series with Atlanta don’t be shocked. Not tight like in nervous, more in the muscles being strained, as they haven’t played a NBA game since Mar. 26 in being the only NBA team to sweep opponent.

Though Orlando needed only four contests to send the Bobcats packing, a similar performance could send them home before Memorial Day. Dwight "Foul-On-U" Howard played roughly 54 percent of the time against Charlotte and it had nothing to do with being tired or the Magic being far ahead. Howard was continually in foul trouble and was WAY to easily frustrated by the antics of Bobcats big men and let his ego matter more than the team.

Though Atlanta coach Mike Woodson will not be mentioned in the same sentence with Larry Brown as astute NBA coaching legends, he will learn from what the Charlotte was able to do and work to have Howard take himself out of the game instead of being dominate force.

Vince Carter shot 35.7 percent in first playoff series with Orlando, that won’t cut it against Atlanta. Carter was too tentative and fell back into comfort zone of hoisting jumps shots. (Though he’s not that accomplished at making them) He has to be willing to put the ball on the deck, drive to the rim, get fouled and make free throws to create more wide open chances for jumpers.

If those two players perform up to capabilities, Orlando could have another short series, since Jameer Nelson, Matt Barnes and Mickael Pietrus were burying three’s like “Fito” with his bone in the backyard. In many ways Nelson is the key performer among this trio, as he can force Atlanta to sit Mike Bibby, since he is not a good defender any longer and make the Hawks use Jamal Crawford as more two-way player.

Orlando won three of four meetings with Southeast Division partner, with average margin of victory 22.1 points per game. The Magic come into this series 40-19 ATS having won 12 or more of their last 15 games.

Coach Woodson wants to believe his club learned something about itself and it will carry over into this next series. Realistically, except for fourth quarter collapse in Game 5, the Hawks have played very good defense for three games and started sharing the ball in the last six quarters.

Atlanta players don’t have to run isolations time after time to score, they get much better offensive flow by passing, cutting and finding open shooters. Though Milwaukee lacked the height to compete with the Hawks inside, the increased offensive movement made them a much better offensive rebounding team which will be a requirement in this series, especially if it leads to fouls on Howard.

On defense, Atlanta was able to pressure the Bucks guards with greater persistence and they will have to have that same gumption with all the Orlando shooters.

To start the series, the better strategy for the Hawks is to man-up the Magic and keep in contact with their sharp-shooters and hope Al Horford can force Howard out to around 10 feet and keep him away from the rim. What hurts Atlanta is when they allow dribble penetration, setting up Howard for easy dunks because of help defense and three-point marksmen are left alone to hit the bulls-eye.

Joe Johnson and Crawford have to be the offensive catalysts as scorers and facilitators. Horford, Josh Smith and Marvin Williams are much better players when they receive passes in their comfort zone.

"We're confident," Hawks center Horford said. "I think we've figured out if we play hard defensively we always give ourselves a chance to win games. And we just have to come out and match their intensity. They have a lot of good shooters, they have Dwight inside. It's going to be a challenge... but we're excited." Atlanta is 5-18 ATS on the road in all playoff games.

Atlanta will have no better chance to grab the upper hand feeding off the momentum of series win and Orlando being rusty for first contest. The Hawks players, at least outwardly believe they can win two series for the first time in franchise history since moving to Atlanta in 1968. That means playing at a level they are not accustomed to and doing whatever it takes. From talent perspective, they could pull the upset, but Orlando is a bad matchup for them with their style (4-8 SU & ATS) and ultimately prevails.

3Daily Winners Pick- Orlando (-800) in six over Atlanta (+600)

Give me your old and feeble Friday night in NBA

The Boston Celtics looked like a bunch of old geezers the latter part of the schedule, but have found playoff basketball the perfect tonic for what ailed them. San Antonio is elderly at certain positions and too small to match up with Dallas, yet they return home 1-1. The Utah team bus can officially use their handicap sticker for parking with all their injuries, yet they could go up in the series over Denver with a win tonight.

Boston at Miami 7:00E ESPN

The Heat were a popular wager twice in Boston and they came up short both times as the Celtics went back to what they do best, play defense and take good shots. Playoff basketball can do that for team, the daily grind of the regular season is replaced by focusing on the strengths and weakness of just one foe, creating a singular mindset.

Boston is 13-1 and 10-4 ATS against Miami in just over three seasons of playing the Heat. This provides a certain comfort level not easily achieved, even performing on the postseason road.
“We’re figuring their backs are against the wall and they’re thinking that if they don’t get Game 3 then this is pretty much over,” Kevin Garnett said. “I know that’s what I would be thinking so we’re going to have to be ready for that.” Garnett’s team is 19-7 ATS off a home blowout win by 20 points or more.

Miami is 7-23 ATS at home after playing consecutive road games yet is not showing panic outwardly. “Minor adjustments, of course, but energy, effort, mental, things like that. Those are the things we’ve been so good at so far this year,” Heat forward Udonis Haslem said. “We’ve got to get back to that.”

DiamondSportsbook.com has Boston catching four points, with total of 182 and they are 22-11 ATS as visitors when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points over the last two seasons. The C’s are 10-2 UNDER off a home win by 10 points or more this year. The Heat will attempt to get off the canvas and are 28-13 ATS after allowing 105 points or more, coupled with 9-0 OVER mark off an embarrassing road loss scoring less than 80 points.

Dallas at San Antonio 9:30E ESPN

Tim Duncan, he of the aching knees, having lost a step of quickness and having hops like teammate Matt Bonner (ouch), yet is masquerading as the player he was 10 years ago, averaging 26 points and 12.5 rebounds against Dallas.

The Duncan drop-step is back and the lack of quicks has been replaced with smarter positioning to release shots faster before opponent can gather itself.

“For two or three weeks there toward the end of the season, I was starting to wear down a little bit,” Duncan stated. Off the 102-88 thumping, the Spurs are 10-3-1 ATS after breaking the century mark in points.

The Mavericks have looked a little too dependent on offense from Dirk Nowitzki thus far in the series, benefitting from his near perfect 36-point performance in Game 1 and sagging noticeably when he was 9-24 from the field, totaling up 24 points Wednesday night.
Dallas is 14-3 ATS in road games off an upset loss as a favorite and needs production in the paint from their centers. In the opener Erick Dampier and Brandon Heywood totaled 15 points, in Game 2, a meaningless two points.

The Spurs are 3.5-point pick at the AT&T Center where they have covered seven of previous nine. Dallas is spirited 26-15 ATS on the road and 13-3 UNDER revenging a home loss.

Denver at Utah 10:30E ESPN2

If the shoulders of Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer look a little bigger, it’s for good reason; they are forced to carry the load for Utah. Williams had 33 points and 14 assists in 114-111 upset in Denver and Boozer added 20 points and 15 rebounds as the injury-riddled Jazz tied the series.

“D-Will and Booze, they had their way,” said Nuggets point guard Chauncey Billups noted after the contest.

The action moves to Salt Lake City were the Jazz are 32-9 and 26-13-2 ATS, winning by 9.5 points per game. That places the onus on Denver and they are 29-12 ATS after consecutive tilts as a home favorite over the last two seasons.

“We missed some easy shots, some lay-ups and we kind of felt it at the end. But we know what we have to do. We’ll get one over there. It’s playoff basketball.” Johan Petro said.

Denver will have turn up defensive intensity, since it has been on low wattage, with Utah shooting 54.7 and 52.9 percent in initial two contests of the first round. It will be up to interim coach Adrian Dantley to convince his players to work as harder on the other end of the floor and they are 13-3 ATS after allowing 105 points or more three straight games.

The Jazz are a two-point pick before what should be a roaring crowd and Utah is 8-1 ATS after two straight as an underdog this season. With the way this series is being played the listed total of 216 seems like forgone conclusion, however the Nuggets are is 8-0 UNDER away from home after a combined score of 215 points or more in two straight skirmishes and coach Jerry Sloan’s club is 15-4 UNDER in home whites after scoring 110 points or more.

Are NBA home teams wise bets tonight?

Orlando and Dallas each won their opening first round game and look to build a solid 2-0 lead in their series before taking to the road for a pair. Both teams have been a solid investment of late; however both are matched against division foes that know them well. Can they continue to win or do two coaching legends come up with ways to not only cover the spread, but derail plans of sweeping the initial home encounters.

Coach we’re paying attention, really

The Magic rather easily built a 22-point in the third quarter against Charlotte, before the Bobcats got with the program and started to play closer to their abilities.

Charlotte was too excited to start Game 1 – “We were a little nervous starting off the game, and they knew it,” forward Gerald Wallace said.

But with some well-timed coaxing from coach Larry Brown, Charlotte battled back to 85-80 by being the aggressor and getting Dwight Howard off his game with extremely physical play.
Howard admitted to receiving little sleep the night before, anxious to start the playoffs and he played liked someone tired and irritable with not enough time on the pillow. Howard had as many fouls as points (5), playing less than 28 minutes. “Superman” was less than super with only seven boards and took silly fouls.

“Their big guys are going to hit him every chance they get. And if he gets one foul retaliating, they’ve done their job,” Magic coach Stan Van Gundy said. “He can’t get any of those. He’s just going to have to understand no matter how many times they hit him, he can’t hit back. We need him on the floor.”

Orlando came up just short of covering the 9.5-point spread with 98-89 victory and is 21-11 ATS off a home win this season.

The Bobcats are expected to be much more relaxed this time with Wallace and Stephen Jackson as the scoring leaders. Charlotte is 18-9 ATS versus good three point shooting teams (36 percent or higher) and must do a better job containing Jameer Nelson, who was 4-8 from beyond the arc and scored 24 of his 32 points in the second half. Nelson missed the first three rounds of the playoffs a year ago and wants to show his skills this spring.

The Magic are 18-5 ATS off two or more consecutive home wins and are 20-3 and 15-7-1 ATS since the beginning of March. DiamondSportsbook.com has them as 8.5-point pick with total of 186 and they are 17-7 UNDER off a no-cover where they won straight up as a favorite.

If Orlando loses focus again, Charlotte will try to sneak right in and Jordanaires are 22-9 ATS after covering two of last three against the spread and are 16-5 OVER playing only their second game in a week.

In Dirk we trust

It’s often been said in NBA circles that if Dirk Nowitzki is your best player, the chances of NBA title are remote. In his career, Nowitzki has had his postseason up and downs, however has been a much steadier performer in recent years. His Game 1 effort against oft-seen rival San Antonio, deep in the heart of Texas, was close to perfection.

Nowitzki scored 36 points on 12-14 shooting, wore out the nets sinking all 12 free throw attempts and grabbed seven boards while committing a single turnover. “Sometimes,” Nowitzki said, “you have one of those nights where the basket is big.”

The Mavericks have now defeated the Spurs six straight times on their home floor (5-1 ATS) and were the bigger and more aggressive team on Sunday. Erick Dampier and Brendan Haywood out-muscled and out-hustled San Antonio, contributing to 45-37 edge on the glass.

Richard Jefferson was brought to San Antonio to make them younger on the wings and add speed and quickness. For most of the season he’s looked lost in black uniform and he was non-factor again with four points on four shots. The Spurs are piteous 9-23 ATS revenging a road loss the last two seasons.

Coach Gregg Popovich’s defensive strategy might have to be altered if Nowitzki starts Game 2 where he left off. San Antonio played the German forward straight up with approximately five different defenders, eschewing the double team, trying to cover the other Mavs.

Tony Parker lacked his usual zip to the rim and the Spurs ball-handling was atrocious with 17 turnovers, 11 in the opening 12 minutes.

Dallas is a 3.5-point home favorite and coach Rick Carlisle leaned heavy on his starters, with only three subs seeing significant time. The Mavericks have built six-game winning streak (5-0-1 ATS) and despite a yearlong of bad angles, they are 18-7 ATS playing with two days rest since last season.

San Antonio lacked their usual crispness and is 1-8 ATS versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists a game. The Spurs are 23-9 OVER in revenge-mode off a road loss.
Both NBA playoff battles are on TNT, with the first game at 7:05 Eastern.

Fire-up Friday

Had to miss yesterday working on the NBA, but have two plays in MLB action that are solid 76.9 percent, but below our standard. The Yankees are in our Top Trend, is it good or bad and the Left Coast Connection has a NHL play. Good Luck

What I thought today- After this week, I should know everything about NHL and NBA playoffs with all the studying I’ve put in. (That doesn’t guaranteed I’ll win money however.)

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) Play Against all teams with a money line of -100 to -150 after two straight games where they stranded 10 or more runners on base, playing on Friday. This system is 30-9 the last four years, which means to play against the Dodgers and Twins.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Yankees are 54-15 after two straight games where they committed no errors.

Free Hockey Pick -3) The LCC consensus has New Jersey bouncing back in Game 2 over Philly nine to zero.

NBA PLAYOFF PRIMER - Opening Round Betting Strategies

It’s never too early or late to prepare for the playoffs. Like preparing for a marathon, it’s best to put ourselves into the best possible condition we can as we make a season ending dash for the cash.

With help from our trusted database, let’s examine four time-tested proven theories that have lined our pocket during the opening round of playoffs since 1991. Here’s what the machine has to say…

NO. 8 SEEDS ARE BEHIND THE 8-BALL

For the most part, No. 8 seeds in the NBA playoffs are teams that likely scratched and clawed their way into the post-season. Not good enough to be seriously considered threats against top-seeded opponents but just barely better than the dregs of the league.

Rest assured, their life expectancy is not long at all, as they’ve lost nearly 75% of time (33-95 SU) in games against No. 1 seeds since 1996. In fact, only the 1996 New York Knicks and the 2007 Golden State Warriors were good enough to pull the rug on top seeded foes and advance to Round Two of the playoff.

Worse, they are 6-29 SU and 10-22-3 ATS in the post-season with a losing record in opening round games, including 3-11-1 ATS when taking double digits.

And you can virtually write them off in games against No. 1 seeds that are off back-to-back SU and ATS wins. These guys scratch out of the match with alarming regularity, going 2-22 SU and 6-18 ATS, including 0-14 SU and 1-13 ATS whenever the 8-ballers are off a spread loss of more than five points in their last game.

UPSET LOSERS ARE WINNERS

No, it’s not an oxymoron. Instead, it’s a powerful handicapping edge. It occurs whenever a team was upset as a favorite in an opening round game and is at home in the game immediately thereafter.

That’s confirmed by the fact that they are 46-28-2 ATS, a rock solid number. If they were upset at home in this round and return home they improve to 34-19-2 ATS, including 24-10-1 ATS if off a loss of 5 or more points – and 15-3-2 ATS when laying five or more points in this role.

Don’t be afraid of these chalkbusters. That’s because they don’t lose their composure. Instead they almost always elect to dig down deep and respond with aplomb in games after being embarrassed.

DOUBLE DIGIT DOGMA

Surprisingly, in the right role, double-digit underdogs do well in opening round contests, especially when playing off a playoff loss. These overweight puppies are 25-14-1 ATS in this role, including 21-9-1 ATS if they took 8 or more points the previous game.

These same guys are also 17-6 ATS off a playoff loss when taking double digits from a non-division foe, including 15-3 ATS against sub .795 opponents.

Granted, these dogs are not exactly pedigree puppies but the fact of the matter is they tend to come up big against disinterested favorites not capable of chopping heavy lumber.

AND DOWN GOES FRAZIER

The psyche of teams that are not playing well comes immediately to the surface during the opening round of the NBA playoffs. That’s evidenced by the fact that teams riding a three game-exact loss skein are one punch away from being counted out.

With glass-like jaws, these swirling teams are just 4-25 SU and 6-23 ATS away from home. They are also 13-31-2 ATS as dogs on their way to the canvas.

Worst of all, road dogs of more than six points on a three game exact losing skid are 2-18 SU and 3-17 ATS. Last year Detroit was counted out at Cleveland, as well as New Orleans at Denver.

Enjoy the opening round of the 2010 NBA playoffs. I’ll be back soon with additional insight on Round Two.

By Marc Lawrence • PLAYBOOK.com

NBA Monday means all systems ready to fire

It’s the final three days of the regular season in the NBA, which also means it is the last Monday of taking a look at some of the best systems in professional basketball to get the week started. In this last installment, we find five contests that could provide winning systems for the sports bettor to profit from to begin another work week. Sides and totals from DiamondSportsbook.com.

Miami (-4, 193) at Philadelphia

It’s been a miserable year for the 76ers at 27-53 and they’ve been one of the worst home teams in the league at 12-28 and 11-27-2 ATS. Philadelphia is coming off one of its finest offensive performances of the season, scoring 120 points in rout of Memphis, shooting 57 percent from the field. When there is a contest involving two average three point shooting teams (33-36.5 percent) after 42 or games in the season and the home team made 55 percent or more of their shots with the total between 190 and 199.5 points, the UNDER is 33-11.

Orlando (-3.5, 210) at Indiana

There could well be hope next season for the Pacers if the close of this year is any indication of what the future holds. Indiana has won four in a row and 10 of 12 (8-3-1 ATS), shooting the ball with great proficiency at over 47 percent in eight of those games. The Pacers could be a play again since home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points, in a matchup involving two defensive teams holding opponents to 43.5 to 45.5 shooting percentage, who commit 14.5 or less turnovers, facing a poor pressure defense (14.5 or fewer turnovers forced), after 42 or more games, they are 40-13 ATS, 75.5 percent the last 14 seasons.

Minnesota (+14, 205.5) at San Antonio

The Spurs have endured a ruthless April schedule, with this being their seventh contest is 11 days and fifth in the last week. San Antonio has made the playoffs with their 49-31 record and would like to get out of eighth slot in the Western Conference; however the Timberwolves might not bring out the best of what the Spurs have to offer. Look to wager against home favorites with win percentage between 60-75 percent playing their fifth game in seven days, facing a team with a losing record. In the previous three seasons, the home chalk is prosaic 5-22 ATS.

Houston (+2.5, 210) at Sacramento

The Kings have lost 14 of the last 18 encounters, which includes 126-108 beat-down by Dallas on Saturday night. When the line is +3 to -3 in April matchups and the home team is off one or more defeats, they are unsightly 41-75 ATS.

Dallas (-11, 198) at L.A. Clippers

It’s been another fruitless campaign for the Clippers with 28-52 record. They are 28th in the NBA in point differential (-6.4), but at least are off a 107-104 triumph over equally inept Golden State. Here we find it is best to play against home teams being outscored by their opponents by six or more points a game, after a close win by three digits or less. Since 1996, this system is tasty 58-20 ATS.

Rising Suns in burning hot system

In the West Conference of the NBA, a ten-game winning streak for a good team doesn’t mean as much as it used to. On Mar. 13, the Phoenix Suns (50-27, 43-32-2 ATS) at stood at 40-26, sixth place in the West.

The Suns would embark on 10 consecutive wins, the last four all on the road. Their last contest was away from home at Milwaukee and coach Alvin Gentry prophetically told the local television announcers before the game which they shared with Suns viewers during the broadcast, “We (the Suns) might be in for a stinker”.

Gentry was correct, as his squad was playing fourth road game in five days and they trailed the Bucks by 24 points at halftime before making it a respectable 107-98 final as 2.5-point underdogs.

That 10-1 streak (7-3-1 ATS) is your classic half full-half empty argument.

Phoenix moved is virtual four-way tie for second place in the West with Utah, Dallas and Denver, making the glass half full. However, the reality is they are in fourth place according to the tie-breakers and could conceivably fall to seventh place if they were to lose their next two games and the trailing teams won both of theirs. (This information makes the glass half empty)

There is a real possibility Phoenix could lose two in a row even with three full days of rest with tonight’s opponent San Antonio (48-29, 41-35-1 ATS), which is on ESPN at 7:30 Pacific.
The Spurs have won four straight (all covers) by an average of 14.2 points a game and six of seven overall, with their 95-86 win at Sacramento last night.

Tony Parker returned last evening after missing 16 games, but it has been the play of Manu Ginobili in particular why San Antonio is 16-5 in previous 21 games. “I’m feeling really confident right now,” said Ginobili, whose averaging 24.9 points in his last 16 outings.

The Spurs are a real nemesis of Phoenix, having eclipsed the Suns from the playoffs in 2003, 2005, 2007-08 and won four of last five meetings (3-2 ATS).

The Spurs create matchup problems for Phoenix, who again lead the NBA in scoring at 110.4 PPG, by slowing the Suns down on offense and taking advantage of their defensive shortcomings.

The oddsmakers at DiamondSportsbook.com are not so sure San Antonio can overcome Gentry’s team again, installing them as seven-point road underdogs and facing a potent super situation.

Play On explosive offensive teams, scoring 103 or more points a game on the season, after trailing in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half.

When this state of affairs arises, the high scoring team off the crummy performance is 35-11 ATS, 76.1 percent the previous five seasons.

With the Spurs 3-14 ATS after four or more consecutive wins and Phoenix 10-2 ATS playing against a good team with a 60-70 win percentage this season, the odds stack up in their favor.

Tuesday's Top NBA Systems

The professional basketball regular season is rapidly drawing to a close and after an off day, nine games are back on the schedule. Five of these matchups in particular have caught our attention, each with a system that has proven to be a very good winner over time, including a totals system that is 82.1 percent. Sides and totals from Bookmaker.com.

Toronto (+6, 206) at Cleveland

The system for this Eastern Conference matchup is sound, with home favorites having a +7 or more point differential 29-10 ATS against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after a loss by six points or less. The problem is the Cavaliers have wrapped up almost everything they need for the playoffs, with the best record in the league a formality at this juncture. Reports have LeBron James as questionable and the line has fallen three points to present level.

Boston (-7.5, 208.5) at New York

For all the grief the Celtics have taken this year for bring too old, one constant since Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen hit town has been their play on the road within the division. Boston is 21-1 and 17-5 ATS against Atlantic Division opponents and they are in favorable position this evening as well. Play Against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points, who allow 99 or points a game on the season, against opponent after allowing 105 points or more two straight games. This system is mouth-watering 50-19 ATS the last 14 years.

Milwaukee (+6, 189) at Chicago

The Bucks suffered a devastating loss when center Andrew Bogut had an ugly and awkward fall on breakaway dunk against Phoenix, in which he suffered a broken hand, dislocated elbow and sprained wrist. Milwaukee will have to press on without him, still trying to move into fifth position in the East. Chicago (37-39 SU) is fighting for its playoff life, trailing Toronto by a game for the last position in the conference, having won six of eight after 10-game losing streak. When the total is between 180 and 189.5 points and the home team has a winning percentage between 40-49 percent on the season, in April games, the OVER is 39-16.

Oklahoma City (+6, 213) at Utah

With just five games left, Utah and Denver are in a dead heat for the Northwest Division lead at 50-27. The Jazz get a tough opponent in Oklahoma City, who has won four in a row and six of seven and is only one game behind in the loss column to Utah and three other teams in the West. However, road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points, having covered five or six of their last seven against the spread, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 27- 63 ATS the past five years, including lamentable 2-9 ATS this season.

San Antonio (-6.5, 193) at Sacramento

The Spurs are playing their best basketball of the season, having won five of six facing a schedule built to cause teams to fail. San Antonio laid out the Lakers on Easter 100-81 and this late-season rush has a more offensive-minded club, ranked 14th at 101.2 points per contest. The Spurs continue their three game Western sojourn in Sacramento, who is 26th in points allowed in the NBA at 104.2. Consider the total when the number is between 190 and 199.5 points and a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) takes on a horrible defensive team (102 or more PPG), after allowing 85 points or less. The play is the OVER, with 32-7 record since 1996.

NBA Systems ready to fire this Monday

The big game of the evening features Denver at Dallas, with both teams trying to hold off pursuers in division play, while looking to earn second slot in the West behind the Lakers. One of these clubs is in a better system along with three other matchups that have top notch super situations to consider on the last Monday of March. Take a gander of the wagering possibilities tonight in professional hoops.

Toronto (+8, 195.5) at Charlotte

The Bobcats have taken advantage of a break in the schedule, winning and covering three games in a row. With Toronto having lost three straight (the last two by four total points) and nine of last 12, one might expect Charlotte’s good fortune to continue, yet underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points in a contest involving two average teams (+/- three points per game differential) after 42 or more games, after two straight losses by six points or less are 35-12 ATS.

L. A. Lakers (-6, 201.5) at New Orleans

Los Angeles was pathetic offensively in loss to Oklahoma City, scoring 75 points on 39.2 percent shooting Friday night. The Lakers immediately came right back, converting on 57.5 percent of shot attempts at Houston in 109-101 victory the next night. When road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points play after a road game where both teams scored 100 or more points in the second half of the season, they are 37-10 ATS the last three seasons.

Denver (+5.5, 211) at Dallas NBA-TV 8:30E

In this important battle for second place in the Western Conference, neither Denver nor Dallas is playing their best basketball. The Nuggets have lost four of five and have not covered a spread in eight games, while the Mavs are 3-4 SU and 1-6-1 ATS in previous eight outings. The Mavericks appear to still have the edge since home favorites are 40-17 ATS after failing to cover five or six of their last seven against the spread, in a game involving two teams with 60% to 75% win percentage.

New York (+11, 213.5) at Utah

The Knicks haven’t played Utah since way back on Nov. 9, losing at home 95-93 as 5.5-point home underdogs. New York opened their five game west trip by being thumped by Phoenix 132-96 two days ago. When these circumstances come together, look towards the total, as revenging teams off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more, with the total at 210 or higher, are 55-24 UNDER the last 14 years.

The Best NBA Systems for Monday

The NBA can reclaim the basketball bettors today after being in the background the previous four days. Ten games are available for wagering purposes with an unusually high six road favorites in action. Here is a look at five of them in the very best systems in professional basketball this evening.

Miami (-6, 187) at New Jersey 7:00E YES

As New Jersey continues to chase history, in the negative sense for the worst record ever in the NBA, they find themselves in terrible position. The Nets don’t shoot or defend and tonight’s foe Miami is off their best defensive effort of the season, holding Charlotte to 29.2 shooting as the Bobcats totaled only 71 points. In this instance, play against home teams shooting 43 percent or less, with a defense that allows 46 percent or more, against opponent that conceded 35 percent or less in previous outing. This system rings up in the Heat’s favor at 23-5 ATS.

Toronto (-4.5, 217) at Minnesota

The purple dinosaurs are 1-11-1 against the spread in last 13 tries, while trying to hang on to last playoff slot in the Eastern Conference. In a matchup of two of the worst defensive teams in the league (Raptors 28th, T-Wolves 29th in points allowed), the UNDER is 41-10 when the total is greater than or equal to 210 and a club like Toronto is beaten by the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55 percent on the season.

Dallas (-5, 203.5) at New Orleans

The Hornets just completed a 1-4 road trip and return home to play five games at home, with three of the team’s division leaders, which includes Dallas tonight. When two squads have plus/minus scoring average of three or less after 42 games, play against the home team if they trailed by 10 or more points in their last two encounters at halftime. Dating back to 1996, this system is 39-13 ATS.

Memphis (-2, 206) at Sacramento

The Grizzlies were the latest team to grill Golden State’s cavalier attitude towards defense, winning 123-107 as nine-point home favorites. Memphis attempted 98 shots in that contest, which was one off their season high. The Grizzlies are seventh in the NBA in scoring at 102.7 points per game and teams averaging better than 102 PPG off a blowout win of 15 or more points, taking on above average offense (98-102 PPG), with a line +3 to -3, are 32-10 ATS since 2005.

Phoenix (-4.5, 243.5) at Golden State

The Phoenix Suns have won their last four games at the purple palace and take to the road for the first since Mar. 3. With the way Golden State is playing defense, road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points vs. division opponents, off three or more consecutive home wins are 45-17 ATS.

ALL Systems go on NBA Monday

While most of you have been spending the morning hours going over NCAA tournament brackets, discussing the upcoming matchups and looking at what underdogs could pull off outright upsets on Thursday and Friday, their will actually be basketball played tonight, in the NBA. Here is a look at the best systems to consider, with a pair of televised tilts as well. Sides and totals from DiamondSportsbook.com.

New York (+3, 210) at Philadelphia 7:00E MSG

The Knicks have not had many highlights to their season, but Saturday night was one of them, with a stirring 124-98 road upset of Dallas as 10.5-point underdogs, ending the Mavs 13-game winning streak. This sets up New York for totals play as road teams off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog, with the total at 210 or higher are 41-14 UNDER the last 14 years.

Detroit (+9, 195) at Boston 8:00E ESPN

The Boston Celtics didn’t show a great deal of energy in being handled by Cleveland 104-90 as seven point underdogs on Sunday afternoon. If that matchup didn’t bring out the best in the Celtics, it would not figure Detroit would either, especially playing their fifth game in a week. Home favorites with a 60 to 70 percent winning record, facing a club with a 25 to 40 percent losing record are 9-33 ATS since 1996.

Denver (-2.5, 216) at Houston

The Nuggets have reeled off six straight wins, including the last three on the road. Denver was particularly impressive at its last stop in Memphis, where they scored 125 points, shooting 58 percent from the field, winning by 17 points. The Nuggets are second in the NBA in scoring at 107.4 points per game and teams that average more than 102 points a contest, against a decent offensive team (98-102 PPG), with a line of +3 to -3 after a blowout win by 15 or more are 32-9 ATS the previous five years.

Washington (+11, 202) at Utah

The Jazz have walking wounded and it showed defensively in their last game against Oklahoma City, falling 119-111, as the Thunder shot 60 percent as team. Oddsmakers don’t seem to be too concerned Utah won’t bounce back at home, since the Jazz lead the NBA in field goal percentage at 49 percent. In this confrontation, look to play on teams that shoot 48 percent or better and conceded 55 percent or more in last outing, to be a spread winner with 32-9 ATS record since 2005.

L.A. Lakers (-8, 225) at Golden State 10:30E ESPN

Pau Gasol has been publicly critical of Kobe Bryant’s ball distribution tactics. Bryant to his credit has keep his mouth shut, knowing his team needs Gasol later in the post-season and blasting him won’t resolve the issue. The Lakers have won their last two games and have had a break in the schedule which has allowed for more down time and just practice. Road favorites off a road win against division rival playing four or less games in 10 days are 10-3 ATS the last five seasons.

New Orleans (+2.5, 203.5) at L.A. Clippers

The Hornets continue to falter, losing seven of eight and haven’t covered the spread once in this stretch. New Orleans was hammered in the desert yesterday 120-106 and travels to Los Angeles trying to break the drought. NBA teams off a road loss by 10 points or more, against opponent off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more (Clippers lost by 30 at San Antonio Saturday) are 66-34 OVER in next contest.

Terrible Timberwolves in Awesome System

Special Note - This will be only day time post, going to MLB game today, should have more tonight.

It’s another play out the season campaign for Minnesota, with a well deserved 14-50, ranking 23rd in field goal percentage at 44.9 percent and 25th in field goal percentage defense at 47.5. About the only good news, if someone wants to call it that, is the Timberwolves are 32-32 against the spread, however losing by 9.8 points per game suggests more disinterested opponents not covering the spread than Minnesota bringing something positive to the party.

The basketball gods toyed with the T-Wolves, allowing them to win and cover four games in a row from Jan. 29 – Feb. 6, giving them a false sense of turning their season around. That ended up being similar to a 70 degree day in Minneapolis in February, nice, but reality will soon be coming back to normal.

Minnesota has gone on to lose 12 of next 13 contests, including the last six in a row. In this deplorable stretch, the Timberwolves have surrendered 115.9 point per game, a full 9.2 points above their 29th ranked scoring defense that has allowed 106.7 PPG on the entire season. The high water mark or lowest point if you will was last contest against Dallas, where they conceded 125 points in losing by 13, making it their fourth consecutive Over game.

Tonight’s opponent Denver is No. 1 in the Northwest Division, third in the Western Conference and second in the NBA in scoring at 107.6 points per game.

DiamondSportsbook.com has announced the Nuggets as eight-point favorite, with a total of 216. Throw all of this information into the “Big Brain Machine” and this is what you get.

Play the Over when the total is greater than or equal to 200, the home team is off a home loss by 10 points or more, with a winning percentage under 25 percent, playing a team with a winning record.

Sports betting losers are always thinking sports is fixed (have you ever heard somebody that wins at sporting betting say the games are fixed, oh that’s right, they are in on it) and wish they could be on part of the action. While intelligent sports bettors knows there is no such thing as a “lock”, they have a complete understanding of finding information that puts the chances of winning on their side.

For example, the last five NBA seasons have seen this specific totals system produce a 21-1 record, that 95.4 percent if you are keeping score at home. The average total score of this particular system is 220.5 points per game (well above tonight’s matchup), dating back to 1996.

If you want to look at one NBA game today, be sure to break this one down.

The Top NBA systems for Monday

Five games will mark the Monday slate, however the best of the group didn’t have a side or total when this article needed to be completed since LeBron James and Cleveland is up in the air for visiting San Antonio. Instead, we press on with the rest of the other games, including games involving car-wrecks New York and New Jersey. Who said Monday’s aren’t fun. Sides and totals from DiamondSportsbook.com.

Atlanta (-7, 210.5) at New York

You’ll have to excuse Knicks if they are really down, not every team could lose by 20 points to New Jersey, especially after they enjoyed a 16-point lead in the same game. If you can’t close out the Lousy Bets from the Garden State, you deserve what you get. Of note, the Knicks couldn’t throw in the Hudson River, setting a NBA record of miss-guided futility, with ZERO for 18 total beyond the three point arc. Here is what to do with the New York “Bombers”, play against home teams after they allowed 100 points or more in five games, against opponent after scoring 55 points or more in the first half in consecutive contests. A record of 26-8 ATS tends to work.

New Jersey (+8.5, 196) at Memphis

Memphis didn’t handle the pressure of taking care of San Antonio at home Saturday, losing by 10 points to division partner, their seventh straight defeat at FedEx Forum. When the total is between 190 and 199.5 points for team like Grizzlies, playing a non-conference clash off a division loss, the outcome the previous three years is 59-30 UNDER.

Dallas (-7, 207) at Minnesota

The Dallas Mavericks have won 11 in a row and will look to maul Minnesota an eight straight time this Monday. The Mavs are battling injuries, yet keep in winning. They won 122-116 at Chicago two nights ago and road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points, after a road game where both teams scored 100 or more points, in the second half of the season, are 43-15 ATS since 2005.

Golden State (+7, 214.5) at New Orleans

The Hornets are really struggling without Chris Paul. Having lost four in a row SU and ATS and six of seven overall, New Orleans lack of defense is really hurting them without offensive production. When a team has being beaten by the spread by 18 or more total points in their last three games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55 percent on the season and the total is greater than or equal to 210, the UNDER is 53-23.

Sac-Town in Tuesday Totals Play

The Kings have won consecutive games and will try for three in a row, something they have not been able to accomplish since winning four straight Nov. 25 –Dec. 2. Sacramento is again having a miserable season at 20-39, being outscored by 4.4 points per game and are 26th in scoring defense at 105.4 points per game. Among the few bright spots has been rookie Tyreke Evans (he of the well placed elbow) for the Kings, who are horrifying 5-25 on the road (14-15-1 ATS) this season.

Sacramento wants to build a product like Oklahoma City (35-23 SU & ATS), who is one of the up and coming teams in the NBA, led by Kevin Durant. The Thunder has also won two consecutive games, each in blowout fashion (17 and 20 points) and has emerged victorious in 11 of last 13 contests.

“… We have that mindset of trying to be guys that go out and get after it and have that competitive spirit for 48 minutes straight,” Durant said. “That’s our brand of basketball here in Oklahoma City, and that’s how it’s going to be for a long time.”

Bookmaker.com has Oklahoma City as 10-point favorites with total of 202.5. Pay particular attention to the total for this reason.

Dreadful road teams, being outscored by three or more points a game, against opponent after two straight wins by 10 points or more, with a total in the range of 200 to 209.5, are 37-11 OVER the last 14 years.

In this situation, the average total score is 212.6 points and this super situation has really been heating up with 17-3 record the previous three seasons. Sacramento is 8-3 OVER as an underdog, while OKC is 8-3 OVER after scoring 100 or more points. Consider this NBA system tonight.

Ridin' High on a Monday

Nailed all three plays yesterday, which was a welcome figure after Friday’s not so special day. We have a number of NBA systems to consider which are listed below on this page. The Top Trend applies to the Big Monday contest in the Big East. Good Luck

What I saw today – (11:30 MST) As per usual, NBA bettors are hitting the totals and three games in particular stand out. Orlando and Philadelphia have gone from 195.5 to 198, in spite of the Magic being 22-9 UNDER on the road this season. New York and Cleveland have also risen, up 2.5-points to 213, which makes more sense as the Knicks are 14-2 OVER in road games having lost 12 or more of their last 15 games over the last three seasons.

Oddsmakers opened Denver and Phoenix at 225, and that figure swiftly went south to 221. That seems to be the right direction as the Nuggets average total score is 210.2 points per game with no rest and the Suns is 215.

Very interesting to see Charlotte move from a one point favorite to three, seeing they have never beaten Dallas since joining the NBA and the Mavs have won seven straight.

There are just six college basketball games on the Monday docket. Favored West Virginia has moved up a point to 6.5, while Texas and Utah State have dropped one digit as favorites.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) See article listed below.

Free Basketball Trend - 2) Georgetown is 4-19 ATS after one or more Under’s over the last two seasons.

Free Basketball Pick -3) After yesterday's winner, Steve has the Hornets with the points over the Spurs.

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